Hng dn thc hnh SPSS c bn

SPSS 16.0

GV: Phm L Hng Nhung

HI QUY BINARY LOGiSTIC Hi quy Binary Logistic s dng bin ph thuc dng nh phn c lng xc sut mt s kin s xy ra vi nhng thng tin ca bin c lp m ta c c. Khi bin ph thuc dng nh phn ( hai biu hin 0 v 1) th khng th phn tch vi dng hi quy thng thng m phi s dng hi quy Binary Logistic. I. Cch thc tin hnh phn tch hi quy Binary Logistic vi SPSS

1. Vo menu Analyze Regression Binary Logistic, xut hin hp thoi sau:

2. a bin ph thuc Y dng nh phn vo dependent, v bin c lp sang khung Covariate. 3. Chn phng php a bin vo (Method) tng t nh hi quy tuyn tnh thng thng. Tuy nhin iu kin cn c trn s thng k likelihood-ratio (t l thch hp) hay s thng k Wald. Enter: a vo bt buc, cc bin trong khi bin c lp c a vo trong mt bc. Forward: Conditional l phng php a dn vo theo iu kin. N kim tra vic loi bin cn c trn xc sut ca s thng k Likelihood-ratio da trn nhng c lng thng s c iu kin. Forward: LR l phng php a dn vo kim tra vic loi bin cn c trn xc sut ca s thng k Likelihood-ratio da trn c lng kh nng xy ra ti a (maximum-likelihood estimates). Forward: Wald l phng php a dn vo kim tra vic loi bin cn c trn xc sut ca s thng k Wald.
1

Hng dn thc hnh SPSS c bn

GV: Phm L Hng Nhung

Backward: Conditional l phng php loi tr dn theo iu kin. N kim tra vic loi bin cn c trn xc sut ca s thng k Likelihood-ratio da trn nhng c lng thng s c iu kin. Backward: LR l phng php loi tr dn vo kim tra vic loi bin cn c trn xc sut ca s thng k Likelihood-ratio da trn c lng kh nng xy ra ti a. Backward: Wald l phng php a dn vo kim tra vic loi bin cn c trn xc sut ca s thng k Wald. Stepwise: hi quy tng bc, s thng k c s dng cho cc bin c a vo v loi ra cn c trn s thng k Likelihood-ratio, hay s thng k Wald.

4. hin th phn loi gi tr tht v gi tr d bo ca bin ph thuc, chn Option, chn Classification plots trong phn Statistics and plots. Click Continue tr v hp thoi u tin.

5. Mun tnh c gi tr d on, l xc sut m mt i tng s (bin ph thuc Y), ta chn Predict value trong hp thoi Save. Chn Continue Ok thc hin lnh.

Hng dn thc hnh SPSS c bn

GV: Phm L Hng Nhung

II.

Cch thc c kt qu phn tch hi quy Binary Logistic

V d: s dng phng php a bin vo mc nh l Enter. Phn tch mc nh hng ca s hi lng v 4 dch v n mc hi lng chung v im n khi i du lch ca du khch. Y: mc hi lng chung v im n (0: khng hi lng, 1: hi lng) X1 X4: mc hi lng v 4 dch v (tng t nh phn hi quy tuyn tnh) Thc hin cc bc trn tin hnh phn tch. Kt qu xut hin vi rt nhiu bng. Ta s ch phn tch cc bng sau:

Bng 1. Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square Step 1 Step Block Model 178.459 178.459 178.459 df 4 4 4 Sig. .000 .000 .000

bng 1, ta c kt qu kim nh H 0: 1 = 2 = = k = 0. Kim nh ny xem xt kh nng gii thch bin ph thuc ca t hp bin c lp. Kt qu bng 1 cho thy ph hp tng qut c mc ngha quan st sig. = 0,000 nn ta bc b H0. Ngha l t hp lin h tuyn tnh ca ton b cc h s trong m hnh c ngha trong vic gii thch cho bin ph thuc.
Bng 2. Model Summary Cox & Snell R Step 1 -2 Log likelihood 26.793a Square .595 Nagelkerke R Square .769

a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 6 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001.

Bng 2 th hin kt qu ph hp ca m hnh. Khc vi hi quy tuyn tnh thng thng h s R2 cng ln th m hnh cng ph hp, hi quy Binary Logistic s dng ch tiu -2LL (-2 log likelihood) nh gi ph hp ca m hnh. -2LL cng nh cng th hin ph hp cao. Gi tr nh nht ca -2LL l 0 (tc l khng c sai s) khi m hnh c ph hp hon ho. Kt qu bng 2 cho thy gi tr ca -2LL = 26,472 khng cao lm, nh vy n th hin mt ph hp kh tt ca m hnh tng th.

Hng dn thc hnh SPSS c bn

GV: Phm L Hng Nhung

Bng 3. Classification Tablea Predicted Satisfied dummy Observed Step 1 Satisfied dummy Dissatisfied Satisfied Overall Percentage a. The cut value is .500 Dissatisfied 51 22 Satisfied 49 389 Percentage Correct 51.0 94.6 86.1

Mc chnh xc cng c th hin bng 3, bng ny cho thy trong 73 trng hp khng hi lng v im n (xem theo ct) m hnh d on ng 49 trng hp (xem theo hng), vy t l ng l 51%. Cn vi 438 trng hp hi lng v im n, m hnh d on sai 22 trng hp, t l ng l 94,6%. T ta tnh c t l d on ng ca ton b m hnh l 86,1%.
Bng 4. Variables in the Equation B Step 1a Satisfied with Accom Satisfied with Food Satisfied with Shopping Satisfied with Transp Constant 1.567 .435 .672 .918 -11.737 S.E. .255 .249 .222 .228 1.347 Wald 37.812 3.051 9.164 16.273 75.891 df 1 1 1 1 1 Sig. .000 .031 .002 .000 .000 Exp(B) 4.794 1.546 1.959 2.505 .000

a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: Q3.2.a, Q3.2.f, Q3.2.s, Q3.2.t.

Bng 4 th hin kt qu ca kim nh Wald (kim nh gi thuyt hi quy khc khng). Nu h s hi quy B0 v B1 u bng 0 th t l chnh lch gia cc xc sut s bng 1, tc xc sut s kin xy ra hay khng xy ra nh nhau, lc m hnh hi quy khng c tc dng d on. i vi hi quy tuyn tnh s dng kim nh t kim nh gi thuyt H 0: k=0. Cn i vi hi quy Binary Logistic, i lng Wald Chi Square c s dng kim nh ngha thng k ca h s hi quy tng th. Kt qu bng 4 cho thy mc hi lng v 4 dch v c gi tr p (sig.) nh hn mc ngha = 0,05 bc b H0. Nh vy cc h s hi quy tm c c ngha v m hnh c s dng tt.

Hng dn thc hnh SPSS c bn

GV: Phm L Hng Nhung

T cc h s hi quy ny ta vit c phng trnh:

Din gii ngha ca cc h s hi quy Binary Logistic nh sau: Mc hi lng v 4 dch v u lm tng mc hi lng chung v im n , trong hi lng v DV lu tr tc ng mnh nht. C th tc ng bin ca mc hi lng v DV lu tr ln mc hi lng chung vi xc sut ban u = 0,5 th tc ng ny bng 0,5(1-0,5)1,57 = 0,3925. VN DNG M HNH HI QUY BINARY LOGISTIC CHO MC CH D BO M hnh hi quy Binary Logistic c th c p dng d bo kh nng tr n khi i tng i vay hay d bo nhu cu s dng mt sn phm c th no . Ta s dng cng thc sau:

Hng dn thc hnh SPSS c bn

GV: Phm L Hng Nhung