H v tn: Phm V Minh Nht

Lp : NH 05
MSSV: 31101021403
St: 01213570131

D BO LI NHUN SAU THU CA CTCP SA VIT

NAM- VINAMILK BNG
M HNH EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
Ging vin hng dn: Th.s TRN GIA TNG

Cng thc:

Lt = *yt-1 + (1-)*Lt-1

(1)

Trong 0 1. V vy mun cho kt qu d bo t ti u nht th ta phi cn tm

tt nht. tm c , em dng phn mm Eview v t c kt qu nh sau:
VT: triu ng
Thi gian

LNST

Q1/2011
Q2/2011
Q3/2011
Q4/2011
Q1/2012
Q2/2012
Q3/2012
Q4/2012
Q1/2013
Q2/2013

1.006.454
1.107.203
1.062.493
1.042.032
1.270.464
1.505.655
1.395.388
1.647.948
1.530.838
1.842.776
Ngun : cophieu68.vn

Vy = 0,816 th kt qu d bo s ti u nht
Cc bc d bo nh sau:
u tin ta mc nh cho kt qu d bo ca Q1/2011 ( xem nh l k u tin) bng
ng vi s thc t l L1 = 1.006.454
Bc tip theo ta p dng cng thc (1) nh sau:
L2 = 0,816 * 1.006.454 + (1-0,816) * 1.006.454 = 1.066.454
Tng t ta tnh cho Q3/2011 ( k 3) nh sau:
L3 = 0,816 * 1.107.203 + (1-0,816) * 1.066.454 = 1.088.665
C tip tc nh th ta s tnh c cc kt qu cho cc k tip theo nh bng sau:
VT: triu ng
Thi gian

LNST

D bo

Q1/2011
Q2/2011
Q3/2011
Q4/2011
Q1/2012

1.006.454
1.107.203
1.062.493
1.042.032
1.270.464

1.006.454
1.006.454
1.088.665
1.067.309
1.046.683

Q2/2012
Q3/2012
Q4/2012
Q1/2013
Q2/2013
Q3/2013

1.505.655
1.395.388
1.647.948
1.530.838
1.842.776

1.229.288
1.454.804
1.406.320
1.603.489
1.544.206
1.787.839

Vy ta d bo c Q3/2013 LNST s t 1.787.839

2000000
1800000
1600000
1400000
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0

LNST

D bo