Bi tiu lun: tm hiu HT Vit Nam

GVDH:TRN VINH TNH

Cn bng nng lng

1. Cn bng nng lng l g? Cn bng nng lng l mt k thut tng t nh cn bng nguyn vt liu. Mc ch ca k thut ny l cung cp thng tin v nng lng c s dng trong t chc ca bn u v nh th no, l cch tnh ton nh lng dng nng lng trong qu trnh. Biu Da trn nguyn tc c bn ca Sinh thi hc - nng lng khng c to ra cng khng b mt i, n ch chuyn ha t dng ny sang dng khc - khi nng lng tiu hao v s dng l nh nhau. Trong trng hp l tng, nng lng u vo s dng nn cn bng vi nng lng c s dng, tuy nhin, khng trnh kh i mt s dng nng lng b tiu hao (khng c my mc vn hnh lin tc).Tuy th, cc n lc nh m ti thiu ha tiu hao nng lng l rt quan trng. tnh ton cn bng nng lng, hy thit lp S qu trnh (61-1) cho qu trnh sn xut. Xy dng da trn cc thng tin v sn xut (nh 100 n v sn phm). La chn n v nng lng thch hp (nh Jun, thng du c chun ha, v.v) v bin i nng lng cp vo (nh in, nhin liu, v.v) v tng nng lng cn thnh n v qui i ny. Tr nng lng cp vo cho nng lng bn cn s cho bn thy mc tiu hao nng lng. Tip , xc nh xem nng lng ang tiu hao ch no. Phn loi s tiu hao theo mc quan trng (Biu Pareto l hu ch). TIP cn bng nng lng c th c tnh ton cho ton t chc hoc cho mt b phn no trong t chc (nh dy chuyn sn xut). Trong khi qui m ln hn c th a ra biu th v mc c h i thc hin trong t chc, th qui m nh hn s c l i hn trong vic xc nh cc khu vc mc tiu c th thc hin. 1. Ti sao cn bng nng lng c ngha? Cn bng nng lng c ngha bi n a ra cc thng tin khch quan v v tr v cch thc nng lng b tiu hao. N cng c th c s dng nh mt cng c hoch nh nghin cu cc tc ng ca s thay i lin quan ti u vo mi hoc nhng ci tin trong qu trnh. 2. Cn bng nng lng h tr g? Cn bng nng lng s gip bn bc u pht trin chng trnh gim s ph thuc vo nng lng. Khi m i th c kt hp cht ch, bn c th s dng cn bng nng lng so snh hot ng ci tin thc t so vi kt qu mong i. Thng thng, vic ct gim nng lng s trc tip dn n tit kim chi ph. SVTH: L NGC H Trang: 1

Bi tiu lun: tm hiu HT Vit Nam 3. Cn bng nng lng c p dng ti u?

GVDH:TRN VINH TNH

Bn c th s dng cn bng nng lng cho ton t chc, tuy nhin, tt hn nn p dng cho nhng khu vc c th m tiu th nng lng cao. 4. Khi no cn bng nng lng c ngha ? Cn bng nng lng c ngha trong hoch nh v theo di. Kt qu rt hu ch chng minh cho cp lnh o cao nht thy rng n lc Nng sut xanh ang mang li nhng khon thu ti chnh thch ng. S dng nng lng hiu qu quan trng i v i chng trnh Nng sut xanh ca bn. 5. Cn bng nng lng em li li ch cho ai? Cn bng nng lng l mt cng c cung cp thng tin v th nhng ai s dng thng tin ny u c li, g m cc nh qun l sn xut, ngi qun l chng trnh s dng nng lng hiu qu v bt c ai c trch nhim s dng nng lng trong t chc. Khi t kt qu l gim tiu th nng lng v tit kim tin, thnh vin nhm Nng sut xanh s c li, v v th t chc s c li trong vic ci tin kim sot chi ph. Tit kim chi ph c th cng c nh hng tt n khch hng v do lm tng kh nng cnh tranh ca bn.

CN BNG NNG LNG TRONG HT

Trc ht ta phi bit rng: H thng in l m t h thng nng lng bao gm cc nh my in,mng in,trm bin p,trm ng ct v cc h tiu th lm nhim v sn xut, truyn ti v phn ph i in nng in nng l mt dng nng lng c nhiu u im nh d dng chuyn thnh cc dng nng lng khc, d truyn ti, hiu sut cao, Ngnh in l mt ngnh kinh t c c th ring: in nng sn xut ra khng tch tr c, hoc nu tch tr th chi ph rt tn km, ti m i thi im cn phi m bo cung-cu in nng c k n tn tht do chuyn ti; cc qu trnh v in xy ra rt nhanh, do cc thit b phi tc ng nhanh chng v chnh xc trong trng thi bnh thng cng nh s c nhm m bo tin cy v kinh t mt vi thnh tu quan trng ca ngnh in sau 55 nm hnh thnh v pht trin Ti sn u tin ca ngnh in sau khi tham gia tip qun Th thng 10/1954 l s vn 31,5 MW cng sut, sn lng in khong 53 triu kWh/nm. Tri qua 55 nm gn gi v xy dng t nc, cc th h cn b cng nhn vin ngnh in to nn nhng thnh tu to ln v ng gp quan trng vo s nghip pht trin kinh t - x h i ca t nc. Tnh chung giai on t 1995 - 2008, tc tng trng in thng phm nc ta lun mc cao nht trong khu vc v trn th gii, bnh qun t 15,06% (GDP tng bnh qun 7,49%). Giai on 1995 - 2008, EVN u t trn 233.000 t ng cho xy dng ngun v li in. Nm 1995, tng cng sut ngun i n c nc mi ch c 4.550 MW, sn lng 14,6 t kWh, nhng n cu i nm 2008, cng sut ngun in t 15.763 MW (tng 3,46 ln), in nng sn xut t 74,225 t kWh SVTH: L NGC H Trang: 2

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(tng 5,08 ln), trong cng sut ngun in thuc s hu ca EVN l 10.719MW (chim 68% cng sut ton h thng in), sn lng in do cc nh my thuc EVN sn xut l 53,093 t kWh (chim 71,53% sn lng in ton h thng). Hin nay, EVN ang qun l, vn hnh 24.386 km ng dy truyn ti in cp in p t 110 kV - 500 kV, 281.635 km ng dy trung, h th, 46.602 MVA dung lng trm bin p t 110 kV- 500 kV, 42.983 MVA dung lng trm bin p trung, h th. Hiu qu vn hnh h thng in c nng cao, th hin qua t l tn tht in nng gim t 21,4% (nm 1995) xung mc cn mt con s 9,21% (nm 2008). Bn cnh nhim v sn xut kinh doanh, EVN cn thc hin cc nhim v chnh tr - x h i rt quan trng. Tnh n cu i nm 2008, 100% s huyn, 97,24% s x, 95,72% s h dn trn c nc v 94,49% s h dn nng thn c in (cao hn nhiu nc trong khu vc, vt trc ch tiu ca Ngh quyt i h i ng X ra l n nm 2010 c nc t 90% h dn nng thn c in li quc gia). T , gp phn thay i cn bn din mo kinh t v x h i nng thn, min ni, vng su, vng xa, ng gp to ln trong cng cuc xa i, gim ngho ca ng v Nh nc. Ngoi ra, trong 3 nm gn y, EVN y mnh qu trnh sp xp, i mi cc doanh nghip trc thuc. n nay, vi quy m 71 n v thnh vin v trc thuc, 22 n v lin kt, v c bn, EVN hon thin cc c ch qun l, iu hnh; thc hin c phn ha 30 n v, trong c 6 cng ty pht in, 1 cng ty phn phi in, 4 cng ty t vn xy dng in v 19 doanh nghip khc. EVN cng m rng kinh doanh hai ngnh ngh khc l vi n thng cng cng v c kh ch to thit b in. Doanh thu c kh ch to nm 2008 t 1.700 t ng vi nhiu sn phm a dng, nh: my bin p cc cp in p n 220 kV, n nm 2010 s cho ra i my bin p 500 kV; ct thp cho ng dy ti in; cp v ph kin ng dy; c bit ch to thit b c kh thy cng v cu kin cho nhiu d n ln, c tm quan trng quc gia nh: thy in Bun Kup, thy in Bn V, thy in Sn La. Nm 2008, EVN cung cp dch v vin thng cng cng cho gn 3,7 triu khch hng, doanh thu t trn 3.700 t ng. Cng vi cc hot ng kinh doanh khc nh ngn hng, ti chnh..., EVN thc hin kt ni li in cp in p 110 kV v 220 kV vi Trung Quc, ang cung cp in cho Campuchia qua ng dy 220 kV, ng thi bn in cho nhiu a phng khc ca Campuchia v Lo nhiu im dc bin gii. u l nhng cng trnh quan trng ca ngnh in gp phn lm thay i din mo kinh t t nc Tnh n nay, ngnh in xy dng a vo vn hnh thnh cng nhiu cng trnh ngun v li in quan trng. l cng trnh Thy in Ha Bnh - nh my th y in c cng sut ln nht ng Nam . Cng trnh ng dy 500 kV hai mch lin kt li in 3 min v hin nay l cng trnh Thu in Sn La - c coi l nhng cng trnh th k ca t nc, c ng, Nh nc v nhn dn nh gi cao c v quy m, tm quan trng, hiu qu v tnh cp thit. Sp ti s l Thy in Lai Chu, cng trnh thy in ln th 3 ca c nc. Bn cnh , cn hng lot cng trnh ngun v l i quan trng khc gp phn m bo nhu cu in cho sn xut v sinh hot, a nc ta ra kh i tnh trng nc ngho, km pht trin. Nhng nm qua, mc d gp nhiu kh khn, nhng EVN rt c gng trong vic thu xp vn m bo u t p ng yu cu tng trng ph ti. Ngnh in v ang c nhng bc chuyn mnh mnh m, vi tc cha tng c trong lch s pht trin ca ngnh, cng lc trin khai xy dng v a vo vn hnh hng trm cng trnh ngun v li in ng b vi kh i lng u t

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hng trm nghn t ng. i mt vi bao gian kh, him nguy, nhng cn b, cng nhn ngnh in th hin r bn lnh ca mnh khi tng bc lm ch my mc, vn hnh cho n t vn, xy dng v qun l, cng ngh C th khng nh, Tp on in lc Vit Nam hon thnh xut sc nhim v m ng, Chnh ph v nhn dn giao ph, xng ng l mt trong nhng doanh nghip tr ct ca nn kinh t t nc trong qu trnh xy dng kinh t th trng, nh hng x h i ch ngha v h i nhp kinh t quc t. iu c th hin tm Hun chng Sao vng cao qu do ng v Nh nc trao tng cho ngnh in cch y trn 5 nm, trong dp k nim 50 nm ngy Truyn thng ca ngnh. Con ng pha trc chc chn cn nhiu gian nan, nhim v ca ngnh in trong thi gian ti l: Bo m an ninh nng lng quc gia, gp phn gi vng an ninh, quc phng v pht trin nn kinh t c lp t ch ca t nc; thc hin th trng ha gi in nhm t mc tiu khuyn khch u t cho pht trin ngnh in; tng bc hnh thnh v pht trin th trng in lc; hon thnh chng trnh a in v nng thn, min ni nhm t mc tiu n nm 2020 hu ht s h dn nng thn c in. hon thnh cc nhim v trn, EVN lun gn vic xy dng chin lc pht trin sn xut in vi chin lc pht trin kinh t, x h i, kt hp an ninh nng lng vi quc phng v an ninh t nc; bo m in phi i trc mt bc, vi tc cao, bn vng, ng b. Trc mt, EVN tp trung thc hin tt Quy hoch in VI, trong , EVN c giao u t v tham gia u t 48 d n ngun in c tng cng sut 22.748 MW/59.469 MW (chim 38,3% tng cng sut lp t mi) vi tng vn u t c tnh khong 714.000 t ng. Thc hin th trng ha gi in nhm cn bng ti chnh di hn, bo m kh nng thu xp vn v tr n ca EVN v cc nh u t ngun in khc. tng bc thc hin v hon chnh th trng in theo tng bc: th trng pht in cnh tranh (2009 - 2014), th trng bn bun in cnh tranh (2015 - 2022), th trng bn l in cnh tranh (sau nm 2022), nhng nm gn y, EVN ch ng xy dng th trng in n i b th im nhm tp dt cho cc n v thnh vin lm quen dn vi cc quy tc ca th trng in tin ti thc hin mc tiu hnh thnh v pht trin th trng in lc. c bit, m bo mc tiu n nm 2020, hu ht s h dn nng thn c in, EVN ang tip tc thc hin 4 d n u t in nng thn quy m ln vay vn ca WB tr gi 370 triu USD v gn 2.000 t ng cp in cho cc thn, bun lng 5 tnh Ty Nguyn, ng bo Khmer ti Tr Vinh, Sc Trng. T thng 6/2008, EVN trin khai chng trnh tip nhn ton b li in h p nng thn bn in trc tip n tt c cc h dn nng thn nhm to iu kin cho ngi dn c hng li t chnh sch gi in ca Chnh ph. Mc tiu l n thng 6/2010 s hon thnh tip nhn ton b gn 5.300 x vi 6,6 triu h. Tt nhin, thc hin cc gii php trn th EVN cn gp rt nhiu kh khn, c bit l kh khn v vn. iu i h i nhng n lc rt ln ca CBCNV ngnh in v s h tr ca ng, Nh nc, Chnh ph v cc ban ngnh cng nh s ng cm chia s ca ngi dn. Chng ti tin rng, ngnh in s pht trin nhanh, pht trin mnh v pht trin bn vng. EVN s tr thnh Tp on kinh t mnh, bo m vai tr ch o trong cung cp in an ton, n nh cho pht trin kinh t - x hi, v s nghip cng nghip ha, hin i ha v s phn vinh ca t nc

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Nm 2010: Tp on in lc Vit Nam phn u tit kim 1%/85,14 t kWh in Nm 2009, Tp on in lc Vit Nam (EVN) tit kim c 1003,1 triu KWh, t 141% so vi k hoch ra. l s liu c a ra ti hi ngh nh gi kim im cng tc tit kim in nm 2009 v trin khai cng tc tit kim in nm 2010 va c t chc ngy 28/1, ti H Ni. Bn cnh vic tng cng cng tc tuyn truyn, vic qung b n Compact cng c EVN ch trng. Sau 2 nm trin khai, tng s lng n cc n v bn c l 2.916.168 n CFL, trong c 1 s n v t v vt ch tiu n 162,5%, c tc ng rt ln ti thc ca cng ng. Theo iu tra, nm 2006 t l n Compact c s dng l 0,6 n/gia nh th cu i nm 2009 tng ln l 1,86 n/gia nh. Vic qung b, lp t bnh un nc nng bng nng lng mt tri c tch cc y mnh. Ngi dn rt ng h chng trnh v th trng c nhu cu ln i vi thit b ny. N m 2009, EVN thc hin lp t 1000 bnh nc nng bng nng lng mt tri. D kin nm 2010-2011, s c 20.000 bnh nc nng bng nng lng mt tri c a vo s dng. Cng tc qun l, theo di, s dng in ca k hoch sn xut trng im c y mnh. Cu i nm 2009, EVN thng k c 2360 k hoch sn xut trng im, tng lng in thng phm l 18,5 t KWh, chim gn 49% tng lng in thng phm ton ngnh cng nghip. Nm 2010, EVN t ra k hoch in thng phm t 85,14 t KWh, tng 13,88% so vi 2008. y c nh gi l mc tng rt cao trong khi iu kin m bo v ngun in d kin rt kh khn do 2010. Tuy nhin, nu lm tt cng tc tit ki m in s gp phn m bo cung cp in v nng cao hiu qu tit kim in ca tp on v cc n v. Nm 2010, d kin s c 2,4 triu n Compact c a vo s dng cng vi 13000 bnh nc nng nng lng mt tri. EVN cng phn u gim tn tht in nng khu vc tip nhn li in h p nng thn xung cn 15%, th im xy dng v s dng cc ta nh tit kim in. Cc Cng ty in lc cng s tch cc phn u t mc tiu tit kim 1% in thng phm trong nm 2010. Mt khc nhn thc ca cng ng v Tit kim nng lng (TKNL) l rt hn ch. c nhiu lp hc v TKNL t chc cho cc a phng nhng chnh cc nh lnh o cn cha hiu y v TKNL, cho rng tit kim in l... ct in. Thm ch, nhiu ngi cn cho rng i tng cn TKNL ch l nh my nn "hn nhin" tr l i rng: "Tnh ti c vi nh my nn u phi lo TKNL!". Hn na, cuc thi "Ta nh nng lng hiu qu" nhm tuyn truyn cho hot ng TKNL cng cha thu ht c ng o cc n v tham gia, phn nhiu l cc n v du lch, o to... Theo Vin Nng lng (Vin KHCN Vit Nam), cng vi vic s dng TKNL th vn c bit quan trng i vi Vit Nam trong nhng nm ti l phi pht huy c tim nng ca cc ngun nng lng ti to (NLTT). Hin ngun nng lng ny m i

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c khai thc quy m rt nh: 1,25 MW (nng lng gi), 1,2 MW (nng lng Mt tri), 2 MW (kh sinh hc), 2,4 MW (rc thi)... Trong b i cnh hin nay, TKNL tr thnh vn sng cn ca nhiu DN. Tuy nhin, bn cnh cc gii php TKNL mang li l i ch nhiu nht vi chi ph u t hp l nht, rt cn c s tham gia ca nhiu thnh phn trong x h i. Cu chuyn " thc" dng nh l vn mun thu m cp mi vn thy khng bao gi c! Ti Hi tho quc t v pht trin nng lng Vit Nam, cc chuyn gia trong v ngoi nc u dng t yu km nhn xt v ngnh nng lng Vit Nam hin nay. S dng nng lng lng ph Theo ng T Vn Hng, V trng V Nng lng (B Cng thng), yu km ln nht hin nay l Vit Nam vn nm trong s cc nc c mc sn xut v tiu th nng lng bnh qun u ngi thp xa so vi mc trung bnh ca th gii v km nhiu nc trong khu vc. Trnh cng ngh nng lng cn thp, nhiu c s sn xut nng lng ang phi duy tr cng ngh c, lc hu, c cc ch tiu kinh t k thut thp, hiu sut thp v gy nhim mi trng. Hiu qu hot ng sn xut kinh doanh cha cao, nng sut lao ng ca cc ngnh (nht l than v in) cn thp. Cha thu ht c ng k vn u t t khu vc kinh t ngoi Nh nc vo pht trin ngnh. Vic nh gi nng lng cn nhiu bt cp (cn b l, b cho ln gia cc nhm khch hng), gy bt li cho pht trin sn xut kinh doanh v khng ph hp vi xu hng chnh sch gi nng lng ca cc nc trong khu vc v trn th gii. u t cho pht trin nng lng cn thp so vi nhu cu, th tc u t phc tp, tin thc hin nhiu cng trnh b chm iu ny nh hng khng nh n qu trnh pht trin ca ngnh; nh hng n vic m bo cung cp y , an ton nng lng cho nn kinh t quc dn. Bn cnh , khu s dng nng lng hiu sut cng rt thp. ng Nguyn Thng - Gim c Trung tm Pht trin nng lng bn vng cho bit, a s cc ngnh cng nghip ca ta l nhng ngnh thuc loi c cng nng lng cao. Cng nng lng trong cng nghip ca Vit Nam cao hn Thi Lan v Malaysia khong 1,51,7 ln, c ngha l lm ra cng mt gi tr sn phm nh nhau, Vit Nam phi tiu tn nng lng gp 1,5-1,7 ln so vi cc nc ni trn. Cn theo tnh ton ca APEC th Vit Nam mt 0,463kg du lm ra 1USD, s liu ny cao hn cc nc khc khong 30%-40%. Hin nay tng trng GDP l 8%9% th tng trng v in ca ta thng phi gp i mc 16%-18% trong khi vi cc nc khc t l ny ch l 1:1. iu ny cho thy vic s dng nng lng ti Vit Nam rt lng ph v nh vy nu GDP cng tng th tiu tn nng lng ca ta cng ln.

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Bi tiu lun: tm hiu HT Vit Nam Nguy c thiu ht nng lng ln

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Theo tnh ton cc ngun than, du th s cn kit vo giai on 2025, trong khi h thng in vn pht trin chm v tim n kh nng khng m bo an ton cung cp in. Pht biu ti h i tho, ng Nguyn Vn Hng i din ca Ngn hng Th gii (WB) cho bit: "Chng ti hnh dung ra kh khn ca Vit Nam trong vic p ng nng lng cho nhu cu kinh t x h i. Trong khi GDP th tng trng cao, nhng s pht trin nng lng khng theo kp, bn cnh th gi nhiu ngun nng lng nh du th ang tng mnh cng mang li nhng kh khn. Vic m bo c v cht lng ln kh i lng c bn cho kinh t x h i l kh khn ln trong thi gian ti. Vic thiu ngun ti chnh cng s gy ra thiu ngun cung. T u t ti chnh n x l vn hnh nng cao cht lng h thng nng lng nh th no l vn kh nan gii, ni chung c thng ngun v h ngun v nng lng ca Vit Nam u c vn ."

Nh my Thu in Sng Hinh (nh minh ho). PGS, Tin s Nguyn Minh Du - Trng i hc Bch khoa H Ni cho bit sn lng khai thc du ca Vit Nam st gim. Nu thi gian ti khng pht hin thm m mi th vi sn lng khai thc hin hnh, d bo n 2025 Vit Nam v c bn cn kit ti nguyn du kh. Theo TS Du, tin xy dng nh my lc du qu chm Vit Nam vn xut du th v nhp gn 100% cc loi xng du tiu dng trong nuc, h thng kho tip nhn c khong 1,3 triu m3 tng ng vi 30 ngy tiu th, cha mc d tr cn thit khi gi c leo thang hay khng hong du xy ra. Khai thc than th qu nhanh v vi tc khai thc, xut khu nh hin nay, trong thi gian di na ngun than cng cn kit. H thng in tuy ph khp ton quc nhng do nhu cu tng nhanh m tin thc hin quy hoch chm nn h thng in vn tim n kh nng khng m bo an ton cung cp in. SVTH: L NGC H Trang: 7

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Mt s kin cho rng hin nay xy dng mt nh my in phi mt t 4-6 n m m trong 10 nm ti phi pht trin thm gn 50.000 MW in khng phi l vic d lm. Nu Vit Nam khng c chnh sch pht trin nng lng bn vng th s ng trc nguy c thiu ht nng lng, chuyn thnh nc nhp khu nng lng v mc ph thuc nng lng nhp khu ngy cng tng. Gii php no cho pht trin nng lng? T cc nh gi v thc trng ngnh nng lng ca Vit Nam cho thy m bo an ton cung cp nng lng, cn phi c m t k hoch pht trin di hn nhm p ng yu cu pht trin kinh t x h i, bo m an ton nng lng quc gia. Cc chuyn gia cho rng Vit Nam trc ht phi y mnh pht trin ngun mt cch bn vng. Theo ng T Vn Hng, hin chin lc pht trin nng lng quc gia c lnh o ng v Nh nc xem xt, ph duyt. Trong thi gian ti Vit Nam s y mnh pht trin ngun in p ng nhu cu pht trin kinh t x h i. Trong cc nm ti bnh qun m i nm s phi a thm vo h thng 4.000MW in. Ring cng sut lp t cc nh my thu in c nc n nm 2015 vo khong hn 18.000 MW vi sn lng in trung bnh hng nm trn 80 t kWh. V nhit in, Vit Nam c c mt chng trnh hnh ng theo s pht trin cc trung tm nhit in ln. Nhu cu v than dng cho pht in s ln ti trn 60 triu tn vo nm 2015 v ngoi s dng lng than trong nc s y mnh nhp khu than. Bn cnh l pht trin t 8-11 t my in ht nhn, m i t my c cng sut 1.000 MW. Vi du kh, th Vit Nam ang tng cng thm d cc vng nc su hn v y mnh vic mua m du ti nc ngoi p ng nhu cu. Nhng d ngun c pht trin bao nhiu m s dng khng hp l th vn s dn n nguy c thiu ht v vy iu quan trng chnh l phi c chnh sch s dng nng lng tit kim v hiu qu. Theo ng Nguyn Thng, tit kim in hiu qu th phi gim lng in tiu th bng cch thay th cc thit b s dng in hiu sut thp bng cc thit b hiu sut cao, gim tn tht in nng thng qua truyn ti in. Hin nay tn tht in nng ca Vit Nam cn kh ln 11% trong khi vi cc nc ch mc 6-7%. Quan trng hn na l gim cng nng lng ca GDP v ca ngnh bng cch hng mnh vo cc ngnh kinh t v dch v c cng thp nhng mang li gi tr hiu qu cao. Bn cnh cn ban hnh lut v s dng nng lng tit kim. Hi n nay cc nc c nn kinh t th trng u c lut v tit kim nng lng, ring Vit Nam vn cha c, v vy nn rt kh khn trong vic yu cu cc t chc, n v trong nc thc thi cc gii php tit kim nng lng. iu ny l gii v sao vic tit kim

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nng lng ti Vit Nam t hiu qu rt thp. C nm 2006 sn lng in tit kim ch t 0,36%, thp hn nhiu so vi yu cu ca Chnh ph. Cng theo ng Thng, cc quc gia trong EU nh thay i hnh vi ngi s dng v y mnh tit kim nng lng m n 2020 h s gim tiu th nng lng ti 20%. S liu t Lin hp quc cho thy nhu cu nng lng s tng 60% trong 25 n m ti v v vy vi cc nc pht trin, vic tit kim nng lng c coi l yu t quan trng gip cung cp nng lng bn vng. Tit kim nng lng cng chnh l bin php nhanh nht hiu qu nht v chi ph thp nht gim kh thi nh knh v m bo an ninh nng lng quc gia. Ngoi ra l pht trin ngun nng lng mi v ti to. Hin nay ngun nng lng ti to ca Vit Nam chim t l rt thp, chng ta ang phn u n nm 2010 phi c 3%, nm 2020 c 5%, nm 2040 c 10% cng sut ngun s dng ngun nng lng mi v ti to. Nhng y m i l mc tiu, nu khng c k hoch hnh ng th iu ny kh tr thnh hin thc. Trc ht cn t chc iu tra nh gi tim nng ngun nng lng mi v ti to; xy dng quy hoch s dng nng lng mi. Nh nc khuyn khch vic khai thc, s dng nng lng mi v ti to: h tr kinh ph cho cc chng trnh iu tra, nghin cu, ch to th, xy dng cc im in hnh s dng nng lng m i ti to; min thu nhp khu, thu sn xut, lu thng cc thit b, cng ngh nng lng mi v ti to. La chn cng ngh thch hp vi iu kin ca Vit Nam, a nhanh vo i sng, c bit l cc vng nng thn, min ni... V quan trng hn c l phi c chnh sch m bo an ninh nng lng: Coi an ninh nng lng l mt trong nhng vn c u tin hng u trong chnh sch thng mi v chnh sch i ngoi ca Nh nc. M rng u t v trao i hng ho, dch v lin quan n nng lng. C chnh sch u i v ti chnh v m rng hp tc quc t tng cng cng tc tm kim thm d nhm nng cao tr lng v kh nng khai thc than, du, kh t, nng lng mi v ti to. m bo tr lng v nhin liu ho thch trong nc (than, du v kh t), trn quan im ti u ho s dng v ko di sn sng tr lng nng lng. Bn cnh , phi y nhanh vic nhp khu nng lng t cc ngun cung cp n nh, lu di nh nhp khu thu in t Lo, Campuchia v Trung Quc. Tng cng khai thc, s dng ngun nng lng trong nc, gim s ph thuc vo nng lng nhp khu khng n nh, nht l du m. H tr v ti chnh cho cc doanh nghip ca Vit Nam u t tm kim thm d khai thc du kh ti nc ngoi. y mnh hp tc u t vi Lo pht trin cc d n thu in, khai thc than v pht trin nh my nhit in than cung cp in v Vit Nam.

Tn tht in nng : THC TRNG

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Tc pht trin ca cc ph ti trong nhng n m gn y cng tng t bin dn n tnh trng qu ti cc trm bin p u ngun, tr m trung gian ,ng dy khin tn tht in nng tng cao. Bn cnh li in phn phi nc ta c v c u t khng ng b khin cho in p nhiu khu vc gim thp cng l nguyn nhn v cng l thch thc rt ln.quy m li in tri di qua nhiu a hnh, vng kh hu phc tp: i ni, ven bin, ng bng vi hn 1.686 km ng dy trung p v hn 570 km ng dy h th, m trong nm 2007 trc nhu cu s dng in tng, hp ng s dng in gn 90 nghn h, tnh hnh thiu ngun buc phi sa thi, tit gim cng sut xy ra ti nhiu a phng cng l mt trong nhng nguyn nhn gia tng tn tht. Trong thi k hi nhp ,t nc ta pht trin ln mnh v vy vic s dng ngun nng lng quc gia ni ring in nng ni chung l vn quan trng v cp bch .Vic s dng v qun l in nng cn c s tham gia vo cuc ca cc n v,t chc v tt c mi ngi dn . GII PHP Du bit rng kinh ph xy dng c s h tng cn nhiu hn ch ,u t pht trin khng ng b v d nh mng in phn phi nng thn nhng khng phi l iu kin khng th gii quyt c v hon thin trong tng lai. gim tn tht in nng cng nh an ton cho ngi dn m bo cng bng, chnh xc trong s dng tiu th in nng thit ngh cc c quan ,cng ty in nng c trch nhim hn ,c tm nhn v kh nng qui hoch tt hn nh m mang li li ch nhiu hn cho ngi dn.Vic u t xy mi h thng in ni chung v li in ni ring cn rt nhiu hn ch, vn kinh t v tnh kh thi khng cao.v vy thit ngh in lc Vit Nam nn chn ,qui hoch ,u t nhng ni trng im v quan trng
Li in thng minh (Smart Grid): Xu hng pht trin v gii php ca ATS

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Ngy nay, ngnh cng nghip in ang c s thay i, t sn xut, phn phi, n s dng in. Hiu ng nng ln ca tri t, s cn kit ca cc ngun nng lng ha thch, s bng n tng trng ca cc nc ang pht trin v lng dn s dn n yu cu bc thit phi c nhng phng cch mi trong vic cung cp v s dng nng lng. Hin vic cung cp in hu nh ch da trn mc tiu tha mn ti a nhu cu bng cc bin php tng ngun cung cp. Ngnh in c nhng c quyn kinh doanh, do Nh nc quy nh trong lnh vc ny, cho nn cng phi c ngha v cung cp mt ngun nng lng d i do m i ni v vo m i lc vi gi r cho x hi v nn kinh t v mc tiu tng trng, tha mn ti a nhu cu. Trong khi , cc cng ty in lc ang vn hnh khng to ra c cc phng thc khuyn khch mnh i vi ngi s dng, cng nh c quan iu tit ca Chnh ph. V ngay c chnh cc cng ty ny, vn hnh h thng t hiu sut cao th cng gp khng t kh khn ban u. Tuy nhin, trong khong 5 nm va qua xut hin nhiu nhn t c gi tr thc y s thay i cch thc nh cung cp v ngi s dng vn hnh h thng in. Cc nhn t ny bao gm: Qui nh v Lut Vn bo tn nng lng, tng cng s c lp v nng lng v vn nng ln ca tri t ang l s quan tm hng u ca Chnh ph nhiu nc trn th gii. Mt lot cc chnh sch bao gm thu, lut tit kim nng lng v cc chnh sch khc c thit lp gim thiu vic t cc dng nng lng ha thch ang c xem xt trn phm vi ton cu. S bin i kh hu ca Th gii Trong x h i, m i ngi ngy cng nhn ra nhng nh hng tiu cc i vi mi trng khi con ngi t cc loi nng lng ha thch sn xut in, thin tai xy ra nhiu hn vi cng ph hoi ngy cng nghim trong hn v cc n lc ang c xy dng trn nhiu lnh vc gim thiu s pht thi CO2. S nng ln ca tri t do vic s dng nng lng theo cch hin nay ang c cho l qu sc chu ng ca tri t vo nm 2050 vi dn s khong 9,5 t ngi. Nhu cu ca khch hng Khch hng khng nhng ngy cng tiu th nhiu in hn v cng sut nh tng hng nm ( Vit Nam vo khong 14-15%/nm) m nhu cu v cht lng in

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nng ngy cng cao do nhng i h i v cht lng cuc sng v vic s dng rng ri cc loi thit b in t gi r. Ngoi ra, vic trao i v gim st c s dng in ca chnh bn thn khch hng cng l mt nhu cu ca khch hng thay v ch hng thng nhn c mt ha n tin in kh khan. Theo iu tra, khi khch hng c th gim st c vic s dng in ca mnh th h c xu hng gim mc tiu th khong t 5% n 10%. Vic trao i hai chiu gia cc cng ty in lc v khch hng to iu kin cho khch hng hiu r hn v ngnh in v ngc li l nhu cu ca c hai bn, nhng ch c cc cng ty in lc mi c th trin khai vi h thng Smart Grid. C s h tng ngy cng gi ci v kh khn v vn Rt nhiu cc nh my in, ng dy truyn ti v phn ph i tr nn gi c i sau 20-30 nm vn hnh v c thit k cung cp in trong nhng thi i trc. Cc cng ty in lc thng c xu hng gim thiu u t vo c s h tng ny v rt kh khn tm kim cc ngun u t tin cy m bo s pht trin hp l cc c s h tng ny trong nhng thp k tip theo. Vn v cht lng in nng v tn tht phi k thut Cc gii php m bo cht lng in nng c xc nh v da trn d liu thu nhn c t h thng th cc cng ty in lc c th a ra cc gii php hp l hn cho cc ngun pht sng hi v cc ngun gy ra vn v cht lng in nng trn bnh din l cc gii php cng nghip. Vi cc nc ang pht trin th gim c tn tht phi k thut trong vn hnh h thng in cng l cc m i quan tm hng u, cc tn tht phi k thut bao gm: + n cp in + H hng hoc bt thng ca thit b o m lm pht sinh tranh chp + Chu k thu tin ko di Vi kh nng kt ni trc tip vi thit b v trao i d liu vi cc h thng qun l s m bo cho cc cng ty in lc t c mc tiu gim tn tht ny vi c tnh ln n 30-40% tng tn tht trong kinh doanh ca ngnh in. Ti sao chng ta cn Smart Grid? i vi h thng in Vit Nam hin nay th vn no ng ng sau s cn thit phi xy dng Smart Grid:

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Yu cu v cung cp v s dng nng lng mt cch hiu qu. R rng, t nc chng ta ang trn con ng pht trin khng th khng cn n cc nh my in hin c cng nh vn phi xy dng thm cc nh my in mi, nhng vi phn cng sut v in nng tit kim c do vic xy dng Smart Grid s c coi nh mt loi ngu n in b sung trong cn bng cng sut v in nng. Theo thng k trn th gii vo th i im hin nay ca M th chi ph tit kim c 1 kWh s khong 1,7 cent. Trong khi chi ph sn xut v phn ph i 1 kWh s l 7 cent. Cc lnh vc m Smart Grid c th cho chng ta bin php tc ng trc mt bao gm: - Nng cao hiu sut hot ng ca cc nh my in. - Ti u ha nhm gim tn tht k thut trong vn hnh h thng in. - Gim h s n h i gia tc tng nhu cu s dng in trn tc tng GDP t 2 ln nh hin nay xung cn 1,1 - 1,5 ln nh cc nc trong khu vc. - Gim lng nng lng s dng trung bnh trn gi tr 1 ng GDP. - Gim tn tht phi k thut. To ra vn ha tit kim v bo tn nng lng trong x h i. To iu kin pht trin cc ngun nng lng ti to v cc loi ngun in nh phn tn gim pht thi CO2. c th t c cc mc tiu trn, chng ta phi xy dng mt h thng in v phng thc vn hnh v kinh doanh n c kh nng cho php ch ra nhng nh my phi nng cao hiu sut, cc loi ngun in mi s c khuyn khch pht trin nh nng lng mt tri, gi, sinh kh i nhng a im thch hp. V h thng mi ny s thc y s thay i cch thc s dng in vi s thay i u tin l ci thin th ph ti v khuyn khch cao cho s pht trin cc ngnh cng nghip v s dng thit b tit kim in. H thng m chng ta ni n y chnh l Smart Grid. Cc khuyn ngh c bn: nhanh chng pht trin Smart Grid v li ch ca c n v cung cp in v khch hng s dng in cng nh to ra cc bc thay i trong vn ha tit kim v bo tn nng lng nng lng v mt mi trng xanh hn, chng ta cn cc chnh sch v c ch r rng ca Nh nc ngay lp tc v c tnh cht di hn. Cc khuyn ngh chnh bao gm:

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B Cng Thng cn nghin cu ban hnh cc qui nh, vn bn php lut v cc c ch cn thit thc y s pht trin Smart Grid.. ra mc tiu c th i vi tng nh my, tng cng ty truyn ti v phn ph i cc ch tiu nng cao hiu qu sn xut v phn ph i nng lng. t ra yu cu trin khai ngay cc thnh phn cn thit ca ca Smart Grid t cc h thng SCADA/EMS/DMS. Phn tch hiu sut hot ng nh my in, h tng qun l o m in nng, phn tch hiu qu v kim ton s dng nng lng, h thng thng tin khch hng s dng in... Ngnh in cn c h thng cung cp thng tin theo thi gian (5 pht, 15 pht, 30 pht hoc 1 gi) v chi ph sn xut v phn phi in cho khch hng s dng in v cc n v lin quan. Khch hng hoc ngi i din ca h cn c truy cp vo d liu theo thi gian (5 pht, 15 pht hoc 30 pht) v vic s dng in ca mnh v to ra c kh nng trao i thng tin hai chiu gia cng ty in lc v khch hng. Trc mt, chng ta c th trin khai cc h cng nghip v thng mi ln. B Cng Thng v Cc iu tit in lc Vit Nam (ERAV) cn tip tc hon thin cc qui nh c th v qui hoch, pht trin v vn hnh h thng in mt cch tin c y v hiu qu. Nghin cu thnh lp Nhm cng tc lm tin cho vic thnh lp mt y ban iu ph i vic trin khai Smart Grid Vit Nam. Nhim v iu ph i ca Nhm cng tc hay y ban s g m cc vn lin quan n k thut, cng ngh v c vic ph i hp hnh ng gia cc bn lin quan v l i ch chung, bao gm c cng tc tm kim v phn ph i cc ngun ti tr t cc qu h tr nng lng sch v chng bin i kh hu cng nh cc ngun vn ODA. 1. Thit k c bn ca SMART GRID Cho n hin nay, cha mt ai hoc mt t chc no khng nh chc chn v cc cng ngh s c s dng trong Smart Grid ca tng lai. Tuy nhin, chng ta c th ch ra c cc c tnh chnh ca Smart Grid s bao gm: Kh nng t ng khi phc cung cp in khi c s c xy ra mt in i vi khch hng. Chng c s tn cng c i vi h thng c v mt vt l v mng my tnh.

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Tr gip s pht trin cc ngun in phn tn (pht in, d tr nng lng, ct gim nhu cu) Tr gip s pht trin cc ngun nng lng ti to. Cung cp kh nng nng cao cht lng in nng v tin cy cung cp in. Ti u ha vn hnh HT gim chi ph sn xut, truyn ti v phn ph i k c gi m chi ph u t mi v nng cp h thng in. Cng c c bn ca vn hnh th trng in rng ri. to c s tin b trong vic gii quyt c nhng thch thc ca h thng hin t i cng nh nhng c tnh chnh ca Smart Grid trong tng lai, cc cng ty in lc cn tp trung vo bn lnh vc sau: Thu thp d liu: D liu cn c thu thp t rt nhiu ngun khc nhau ca h thng in (h thng bo v, iu khin, cng t in, cc b I/O..., cc b thu thp d liu tiu th in ca thit b ti cc nh my v thm ch ti nh ca khch hng v cc ngun thng tin khng in nh thi tit Kh nng thu thp d liu c da trn s tin b vt bc ca cng ngh thng tin v vin thng trong th k 21. Phn tch v d bo: D liu thu thp t nhiu ngun khc nhau trn, theo tnh ton vi mt h thng c 2 triu khch hnh s dng in th lng d liu s khong 22 GB/ngy, cn c phn tch cho cc mc tiu vn hnh v kinh doanh. Cho mc ch vn hnh h thng in cc phn tch s c da trn s liu thi gian thc v cn th i gian thc. Cn i vi mc ch kinh doanh th s s dng s liu qu kh. Cc s liu thi gian thc v qu kh cng c s dng cho cng tc d bo t di cho n trung hn phc v cng tc lp qui hoch, k hoch pht trin v phng thc vn hnh. Gim st/qun l/iu khin: D liu c thu thp v x l thnh thng tin phc v cng tc vn hnh, iu khin khin h thng in cng nh c lu tr cho cc mc ch khc nhau theo yu cu ca cc qui nh trong qun l v iu tit hot ng i n lc. Trong lnh vc kinh doanh, cc thng tin ny c s dng xc nh mc s dng v tnh ton chi ph thanh ton gia cc bn tham gia th trng in v khch hng. Pht trin h thng cho php trao i thng tin v in nng hai chiu gia nh cung cp v khch hng s dng in: C ba bc trn s ch c kh nng nh hng ti thiu ln khch hng nu h khng c tip cn v c cc thit b cng tham gia vo hot ng in lc t pha tiu th in. Thc ra y l lnh vc tn km nht trong Smart Grid v

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theo tnh ton th th gii s mt khong 20 nm hon thnh phn ny vi vic trang b cc Smart Meter v thit b cho php tng tc hai chiu i vi bt k khch hng no. Mt s cc thnh phn ca Smart Grid c lp t trong h thng in. Tuy nhin, chng ta cn phi n lc ht sc c th bin mt h thng in truyn thng hin nay thnh mt h thng in thng minh (Smart Grid) thc s. Bi v n khng n thun ch bao gm cc h thng phn cng v phn mm. Hnh di y m t thit k c bn ca mt h thng Smart Grid. 2. Gii php v sn phm ca ATS Hnh di y khi qut v gii php Smart Grid do ATS xut.

Cc sn phm hin nay ca ATS c kinh nghim cung cp bao gm: H thng tch hp iu khin bo v trm bin p @Station theo tiu chun IEC61850 H thng @SCADA+ tng thch vi CIM/IEC61968/IEC61970 H thng thu thp, qun l d liu o m v thng tin khch hng @IMIS tng thch vi nhiu loi cng t khc nhau.

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H thng qun tr D liu qu kh trn nn tng PI (OSI-USA) H thng qun l v thu thp d liu trn cc nn tng mng thng tin khc khc nhau. H thng ng dng trn nn Web cho php ngi s dng c th ghp n i vi cc nh cung cp th 3.

Tn tht in nng :
THC TRNG Tc pht trin ca cc ph ti trong nhng nm gn y cng tng t bin dn n tnh trng qu ti cc trm bin p u ngun, trm trung gian ,ng dy khin tn tht in nng tng cao. Bn cnh li in phn ph i nc ta c v c u t khng ng b khin cho in p nhiu khu vc gim thp cng l nguyn nhn v cng l thch thc rt ln. quy m li in tri di qua nhiu a hnh, vng kh hu phc tp: i ni, ven bin, ng bng vi hn 1.686 km ng dy trung p v hn 570 km ng dy h th, m trong nm 2007 trc nhu cu s dng in tng, hp ng s dng in gn 90 nghn h, tnh hnh thiu ngun buc phi sa thi, tit gim cng sut xy ra ti nhiu a phng cng l mt trong nhng nguyn nhn gia tng tn tht. Trong thi k h i nhp ,t nc ta pht trin ln mnh v vy vic s dng ngun nng lng quc gia ni ring in nng ni chung l vn quan trng v cp bch .Vic s dng v qun l in nng cn c s tham gia vo cuc ca cc n v,t chc v tt c m i ngi dn .

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GII PHP Du bit rng kinh ph xy dng c s h tng cn nhiu hn ch ,u t pht trin khng ng b v d nh mng in phn ph i nng thn nhng khng phi l iu kin khng th gii quyt c v hon thin trong tng lai. gim tn tht in nng cng nh an ton cho ngi dn m bo cng bng, chnh xc trong s dng tiu th in nng thit ngh cc c quan ,cng ty in nng c trch nhim hn ,c tm nhn v kh nng qui hoch tt hn nhm mang li li ch nhiu hn cho ngi dn.Vic u t xy mi h thng in ni chung v li in ni ring cn rt nhiu hn ch, vn kinh t v tnh kh thi khng cao.v vy thit ngh in lc Vit Nam nn chn ,qui hoch ,u t nhng ni trng im v quan trng MT S GII PHP CN THIT -Ti cc khu vc mi tip nhn li in li in h p nng thn, yu cu cc in lc phi thay th 100% cng t 3 pha, c bit l cc cng t c sn lng in ln gim tn tht. i vi cc d n ci to phi ph i hp vi cc n v thi cng khi nghi m thu r sot, cng c nim phong trnh trng hp cc n v thi lm khng ng trch nhim ,cn tng cng bo dng ,sa cha ,thay th ng dy. - Gii php k thut: pht quang hnh lang tuyn, gii quyt tnh trng va qut vo ng dy, hin tng phng in b mt s, m i n i qu nhit gy s c t dy. - Hn ch sng hi gy tn tht in nng: S dng cc t in nh mc d v mc n i tip vi cun khng hn ch sng hi. Hn ch hin tng cng hng.S dng DR. Power va tit kim in va hn ch c sng hi - Hin nay cc vng sn xut nng nghip nng thn, vng su, vng xa ang b tn tht mt lng in nng rt ln Nguyn nhn chnh: mng in gin tri thiu qui hoch c th,ng dy di t c u t nng cp ,cc thit b c k lc hu v kh nng qun l cn l ng lo yu km. gim tn tht v lng ph in nng nhm m bo cung cp in phc v nhu cu ca ngi dn nng thn,vng xa c tt cn thc hin cc bin php sau y: +Ngoi vic chn dy c tit din dn in cn phi m bo cc ch tiu cht lng dn in nh in tr thun nh, in tr cch in cao; khng nn dng dy dn ti sinh, dy gia cng, hoc dy khng r ngun gc. c bit, khng nn tha dy hoc s dng dy c nhiu im n i, v cng l nguyn nhn lm tng tn tht i n nng m cn tim n cc s c v in nh t dy, ngn mch, chm chp in +Cc my cng tc phi lp ng c in ph hp v cng sut v tc vng quay. Khng dng ng c cng sut ln hn my cng tc yu cu v nh vy ng c lun lm vic ch non ti dn n h s cng sut thp tn hao cng tng ln. +Trang b tt hn h thng iu khin t ng. Hin nay, mt s my ch cht dng trong nng nghip c hon thin dn v mc t ng ha. Khi c trang b h thng iu khin tin tin, ngoi li ch tng nng sut v cht lng sn phm, n cn lm gim ng k chi ph in nng trong vn hnh SVTH: L NGC H Trang: 18

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Tt c cc thit b in v ng dy in cn c lch kim tra, bo tr, chm sc k thut thng xuyn hoc nh k nhm tng tnh an ton v hn ch m i tn tht i n nng do chnh chng gy ra. Khi thy khng m bo tiu chun k thut cho php nht thit phi tm cch x l hoc thay th mi c php vn hnh tip. Vi ng dy in h th, ngoi vic kim tra cch in cn phi xem s phn b ph ti cc pha c u nhau. Khi b lch pha hay ph ti ba pha khng i xng s xut hin dng in trong dy trung tnh v gy nn tn tht in trn dy ny. Lch pha cng nhiu th dng in trung tnh cng ln do tn tht cng cao v lm xu cht lng li in, nh hng n cht lng vn hnh ca cc thit b. Tm li: Hin nay, t l tn tht in nng ca nc ta trung bnh l 12%, so vi nhiu nc trn th gii vn l con s qu ln. gim tn tht tit kim c mt ngun in nng kh ln cho mng li quc gia. Nhng iu nu tuy khng phi l mi, song thc hin c mt kh khn ang ro cn l kinh ph u t v trang thit b cng vi cng ngh tin tin . Nu m i ngi dn, m i c s sn xut c thc s dng hp l v tit kim in ng thi thc hin tt nhng iu nu s gp phn lm gim chi ph in nng trong sn xut v em li li ch thit thc cho x h i v gp phn gim bt nhng kh khn cho ngnh nng lng ni chung v ngnh in ni ring.

Phn tch, nh gi cc phng php d bo nhu cu ph ti in

D bo nhu cu tiu th in l bi ton ht sc cn thit trong qu trnh vn hnh, quy hoch, pht trin, iu khin ti u ch mng in v.v Hu ht cc bi ton d bo ph ti u da trn c s cc m hnh ton hc hoc cc m hnh thc nghim nhm tm ra cc quy lut bin i ca ph ti in trong chu k xt. Kinh nghim thc t cho thy khng c phng php d bo chung cho mi qu trnh. Mi qu trnh, mi ngnh sn xut c nhng c im ring bit, ng thi mi lnh vc li c nhng nt chung m c th s dng lm c s cho vic thit lp cc m hnh d bo. Vic phn tch, nh gi cc phng php d bo nhu cu ph ti nhm tm ra nhng nt chung, nt ring c th p dng cho nhng iu kin c th l vn ht sc cp thit i vi s pht trin mng in nc ta, c bit trong bi cnh cc ngnh kinh t Vit Nam ang c nhng bin chuyn ln. Cc phng php d bo c bn 1. Phng php ngoi suy SVTH: L NGC H Trang: 19

Bi tiu lun: tm hiu HT Vit Nam 1.1. Ni dung phng php

GVDH:TRN VINH TNH

Theo ngha rng nht th ngoi suy d bo l nghin cu lch s pht trin ca i tng nng lng v chuyn tnh quy lut c pht hin trong qu kh v hin ti sang tng lai bng phng php x l chui thi gian kinh t. Thc cht ca vic nghin cu lch s v nghin cu qu trnh thay i v pht trin ca i tng tiu th in theo thi gian. Kt qu thu thp thng tin mt cch lin tc v s vn ng ca i tng tiu th in theo mt c trng no hnh thnh mt chui thi gian. iu kin chui thi gian: Khong cch gia cc thi im ca chui phi bng nhau, c ngha l phi m bo tnh lin tc nhm phc v cho vic x l. n v o gi tr chui thi gian phi ng nht. Theo ngha ton hc th phng php ngoi suy chnh l vic pht hin xu hng vn ng ca i tng nng lng, c kh nng tun theo quy lut hm s f(t) no t tin liu gi tr i tng nng lng ngoi khong gi tr bit (y1, yn) nh dng:
y DB t +1 = f (t + 1) +

Trong : - thnh phn ph ti c xt n nhiu ca cc thng tin. iu kin ca phng php: - i tng nng lng pht trin tng i n nh theo thi gian. - Nhng nhn t nh hng chung nht cho s pht trin i tng nng lng vn c duy tr trong khong thi gian no y trong tng lai. - S khng c tc ng mnh t bn ngoi dn ti nhng t bin trong qu trnh pht trin i tng nng lng. Qu trnh d bo theo phng php ngoi suy c th hin qua s sau: 1.2. nh gi Phng php ngoi suy thng c sai s d bo kh ln.Nguyn nhn chnh dn n sai s d bo l do s bin ng ca mt s nhn t lin qua n qu trnh tiu th in. Gi in l mt bin quan trng tc ng n nhu cu ph ti. Cuc khng hong nng lng u tin nm 1973 lm gi in tng 4,1% hng nm cho giai on d bo 1974-1983. Gi in tng to ra cc thay i v m hnh nhu cu ph ti cho giai on d bo. C gi thit cho rng s thay i cu trc trong m hnh cng c th l nguyn nhn khc gy ra sai s d bo.

SVTH: L NGC H

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Vit Nam, t trc n nay phng php ngoi suy c p dng khng nhiu do thiu lng thng tin cn thit v tiu th in trong qu kh. Tuy nhin, trong nhng nm gn y vi vic p dng cc phn mm d bo nh SIMPLE-E, phng php ngoi suy bt u c s dng tnh ton d bo cho Tng s VI. c th p dng thun tin phng php ngoi suy, cn thc c tm quan trng ca thng tin thu thp v lu gi, ng thi cn phi trang b cc c cu o cn thit. 2.Phng php hi quy tng quan Phng php lun Phng php ny nghin cu mi tng quan gia cc thnh phn kinh t, x hi... nhm pht hin nhng quan h v mt nh lng ca cc tham s da vo thng k ton hc. Cc mi tng quan gip chng ta xc dnh c lng in nng tiu th. C hai loi phng trnh hi quy c ng dng nhiu trong h thng in: phng trnh tuyn tnh v phng trnh lu tha. Phng trnh dng tuyn tnh: y l dng phng trnh thng dng nht, n cho php phn tch nh gi s nh hng ca cc nhn t i vi tham s c bn cn xt. Dng ca phng trnh ny biu din nh sau:

Y = a0 + ai . X i
i =1

(1)

Trong : n: s quan trc; a0, ai: cc h s hi quy; Xi: cc nhn t nh hng, hay cc bin ngu nhin; Y: tham s c bn, c th coi l hm ca cc bin ngu nhin. Phng trnh dng lu tha:
a2 an ... X n Y = a0 . X 1a1. X 2

(2)

Dng phng trnh (2) cng c th a v dng phng trnh (1) bng cch ly logarit 2 v. Vic la chn hm hi quy c tin hnh trn c s so snh cc h s tng quan, h s tng quan ca dng phng trnh no ln th chn dng phng trnh . Khi cc bin ngu nhin nh hng n qu trnh tiu th in Y tng ln s lm tng s n Xi v tng kch thc bi ton nhng thut ton tm nghim l nh nhau. Ngy nay vi s tr gip ca my tnh th cc php ton s tr nn n gin, vn t ra l chng ta phi c mt b d liu qu kh mc tin cy xy dng hm hi quy, da trn

SVTH: L NGC H

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c s xc nh ph ti bng cc phng php: dng phiu iu tra, phng php trc tip... Kt qu ca phng php nu trn xc nh c cc h s hi quy ai. Vic xc nh mc tiu th in c xc nh da trn c s ca ai v cc yu t nh hng khc. 3. Phng php h s n hi thu nhp 3.1. Ni dung phng php Nhu cu in nng c d bo theo nh phng php m phng kch bn hin ang c p dng rng ri trong khu vc v trn th gii. Phng php lun d bo l: trn c s pht trin kinh t x hi trung di hn, nhu cu in nng cng nh nhu cu tiu th cc dng nng lng khc m phng theo quan h n hi vi tc tng trng kinh t. Phng php ny thch hp vi cc d bo trung v di hn. n hi thu nhp c xc nh nh sau:

ET

A A% = = A Y % Y Y

(3)

Trong : ET - H s n hi thu nhp; A% v Y% - Sut tng tng i in nng v GDP; A - in nng s dng; Y - Gi tr thu nhp GDP; A v Y - Tng trng trung bnh in nng v thu nhp trong giai on xt. Cc h s n hi c xc nh theo tng ngnh v tng min lnh th. Vic xc nh chng c tin hnh theo chui phn tch qu kh v c s tham kho kinh nghim t cc nc trn th gii v trong khu vc. Ngoi ra, cc yu t quan trng khc tc ng n nhu cu in c xt n l: - H s n hi gi in: Khi gi in tng ln, mt s h tiu th s c xu hng chuyn sang s dng cc nhin liu nng lng khc hoc ngc li. Nh vy v mt th trng, gi c mi loi nng lng dn n tnh cnh tranh ca loi . H s phn nh s thay i nhu cu in ca mt ngnh hay khu vc no khi gi in thay i c gi l h s n hi gi. - H s tit kim nng lng: tnh ti vic p dng tin b khoa hc k thut, thc hin tit kim nng lng, c bit l trin khai cc chng trnh qun l pha nhu cu DSM. Hm s d bo l hm tng hp, d bo nhu cu in nng ton quc c t hp t nhu cu in nng cho cc ngnh kinh t, khu vc dn dng v t cc vng lnh th. n hi thu nhp v gi biu th nhu cu nng lng thay i do s thay i gi nng lng v thu nhp trong m hnh kinh t lng. SVTH: L NGC H Trang: 22

Bi tiu lun: tm hiu HT Vit Nam 3.2. Phn tch nh gi

GVDH:TRN VINH TNH

Thng thng, cc h s n hi c xc nh bng cc phn tch kinh t lng ca cc chui d liu theo thi gian trong qu kh. iu ny khng th lm c Vit Nam v cc chui d liu theo thi gian ny khng v ngay c khi c th mt s s phn b sai lch tc ng n nn kinh t Vit Nam s lm mt tc dng ca cch tip cn ny. V th cc h s n hi dng trong vic phn tch d bo nhu cu nng lng thng c la chn bng cch m phng kinh nghim ca cc quc gia ln cn thi im m h c cc iu kin v hon cnh tng t. Cch tip cn ny khng phi l d dng v mt s l do. Cc c tnh kinh trc thng l khng tin cy v d b thay i tu thuc vo vic hnh thnh cc quan h gia s dng nng lng v nhu cu nng lng cng nh cc tp hp d liu nht nh ang c nghin cu. Phng php ny ng dng ti Vit Nam mang nng tnh chuyn gia hn l cc tnh ton thng thng. 4. Phng php chuyn gia V thc cht, phng php chuyn gia l phng php d bo m kt qu l cc thng s do cc chuyn gia a ra, hay ni ng hn l s cng no khai thc v li dng trnh uyn bc v l lun thnh tho v chuyn mn, phong ph v kh nng thc tin v kh nng mn cm, nhy bn v thin hng su sc v tng lai i vi i tng d bo ca mt tp th cc nh khoa hc, cc nh qun l cng i ng cn b thuc cc chuyn mn bao hm hay nm trong min ln cn ca i tng d bo. Nhim v ca phng php chuyn gia l a ra nhng d on khch quan v tng lai pht trin ca mt lnh vc hp ca khoa hc hoc da trn vic x l c h thng cc nh gi d on ca chuyn gia. Sau khi thu thp kin ca cc chuyn gia, cn x l cc thng tin theo phng php xc sut thng k. Thc t phng php chuyn gia hon ton mang tnh ch quan, ph thuc vo nhn thc ca tng c nhn, nhng khi c x l theo phng php xc sut thng k th tnh ch quan s c khch quan ho bi cc m hnh ton hc v v vy c th nng cao tin cy ca d bo. 5. Phng php mng neural nhn to C ba ngun tr thng minh nhn to bt chc cc qu trnh ca b c v h thng thn kinh ca con ngi l qu trnh x l ngn ng, robot v cc h neural nhn to. H neural nhn to c ng dng hu ht cc lnh vc thng mi, trong c d bo. Mng neural c kh nng chit xut thng tin t nhng d liu khng chc chn hay nhng d liu phc tp nhm pht hin ra nhng xu hng khng quan st c bng mt thng hoc bng mt s cc k thut my tnh khc. Trong h thng neural, nhiu th d c lp chng trnh trong my vi tnh. Nhng th d ny bao gm ton b cc m i quan h trong qu kh gia cc bin c th nh hng n cc bin ph thuc. Chng trnh h thng neural sau bt chc v d ny v c

SVTH: L NGC H

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gng bt chc mi quan h c s bng cch hc hi khi x l. Qu trnh hc hi ny cng c gi l o to ging nh vic o to con ngi trong cng vic. Mt trong nhng u im ni bt ca h thng neural trong d bo l phng php ny khng cn phi xc nh nhng mi quan h gia cc bin s trc. Phng php ny c th xc nh nh vo qu trnh hc hi v cc mi quan h qua nhng th d c a vo my. Bn cnh , h thng neural khng i hi bt k gi nh no v cc phn phi tng th v khng ging nhng phng php d bo truyn thng, n c th s dng m khng cn c y s lng cc s liu cn thit. Chng trnh h thng neural c th thay th nhanh chng m hnh hin c, v d nh phn tch hi quy, a ra nhng d bo chnh xc m khng cn ngng tr cc hot ng ang din ra. H thng neural c bit hu ch khi s liu u vo c tng quan cao hay c s lng khng , hoc khi h thng mang tnh phi tuyn cao. Phng php ny cho kt qu d bo c chnh xc cao, d bo c cc s kin theo thi gian.

p dng cc cng ngh mi trong qun l vn hnh li in

Hin nay, nhiu n v qun l vn hnh li in phn ph i (DNO) phi chu p lc t nhiu pha: vt t thit b li in gi c i dn, nhu cu ngy mt cao, s ra i ca cc cng ngh pht in m i, hn ch doanh thu t pha c quan chc nng, buc cc DNO phi tm n mt phng php mi, thng minh hn c th vn hnh tt l i in. Mt vn ln cn quan tm, l li in ngy cng gi ci. Khng t nhng li i n c xy dng t h i thp k 50, 60 hoc 70 ca th k trc. Gi y, nhiu vt t thit b ti quan trng i vi vic vn hnh cc li in ny gn ht hn s dng . Tuy nhin, chi ph u t ca cc DNO khng lm li cc cng trnh ny nu da theo s phn b cho tng nm. V d, Anh, khon u t hng nm m mt cng ty phn ph i in dnh cho vic tu b li in khng bng 1% gi tr ti sn c nh. iu ny c ngha l chu k lm li li in phi hn mt trm nm, vt xa tui th thit k ca cc cng trnh li in. Gii php truyn thng Vi tnh trng nh vy, cc DNO thiu hng t la cho nhng cng trnh tn ng. Hin nhin l ch cn cch phi chi tht nhiu. Tuy nhin, i vi i a s cc cng ty phn ph i in cng nh cc i tc l cc c quan chc nng v cc chnh tr gia

SVTH: L NGC H

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th vic nng chi ph vn ngay lp tc ln gp i hoc gp ba khng phi l mt chin lc ph hp vi tnh hnh thc t. iu t hi hn l, nhng cng trnh qu thi h n tui th thit k l m i him ho ngy cng ln i vi s n nh v an ton li in. Cc cng ty phn phi phi nng cng sut li in cho ph hp vi nhu cu ph ti ngy mt tng cao. Nu khng c bin php x l, nhu cu tng cao c th dn ti mt in ng vo lc ngi ta cn n in nhiu nht. Trong khi , bn thn c cu l i in cng ang thay i vi vic ngy cng c nhiu ngun in cng sut nh u n i vi li in. ng lc ca s thay i ny l mt s cng ngh nh nng lng mt tri, gi, pin nhin liu, v vic gia tng lp t ti a phng cc my pht in cng sut nh chy bng kh t. Cc ngun in cng sut nh ang c u vo li in m theo thit k ban u ch dnh cho nhng nh my in ln tp trung. iu ny c th gy s c cho li in phn ph i, v li in c xy dng khng phi iu khin cc dng cng sut phc tp xut hin cng vi ngun in phn b, v d nh trng hp dng cng sut t ngt i chiu khi ct my pht in ra kh i li in. Cc p lc trn kt hp vi nhau buc cc DNO phi ng trc s la chn kh khn. Ba phng n la chn c a ra: 1. Khng lm g c v mong m i s s tt p. Ln trnh, khng u t nng cp li in, cc cng ty phn ph i c th trc mt gi chi ph mc thp. Th nhng, vn hnh nhng thit b vt t trn li in c vn u t cao qu tui th thit k cng c ngha l cu i cng nht nh s c chuyn xy ra vi nhng hu qu khn lng. 2. u t vo h thng c thit k vi an ton cao. Trc kia, do nhng rng buc v cng ngh, cc nh thit k li in buc phi cn c vo nhng trng hp xu nht. S d ngi ta p dng cch tip cn thn trng ny l v thng tin qu t i, iu ny buc cc DNO phi ch to cc thnh phn li in ln hn mc cn thit v thay th chng sm hn yu cu. Li in thit k qu an ton s chu c ri ro s c cao, nhng v lun thin v pha thn trng nn y l mt chin lc tn km. 3. Lm cho li in tr nn thng minh hn. Hin nay gi ca cc cm bin ngy mt r i v c nhiu cc phng php tin tin v phn tch in nn kh nng theo di theo thi gian thc v kt cu li li in tr nn ngy mt kh thi hn i vi cc DNO. Xy dng li in thng minh gip h thot khi tnh th tin thoi lng nan, gia mt bn l ri ro thm ho v mt bn l chi tiu vt qu kh nng.

SVTH: L NGC H

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C th bt u xy dng li in thng minh bng cch ng dng phng php tin tin v phn tch li in vi s gip ca cc cng c tr gip. Cc b cm bi n v cng t thng minh theo di lin tc tnh trng li in, cc d liu thu thp c c th lu tr trong kho d liu, sau p dng cc php phn tch tin tin nng cao hiu qu vn hnh. Php phn tch c th khai thc d liu t cm bin v cng t tr gip nhng yu cu cp thit ch yu mang tnh chin lc, hng mc tiu u t vo nhng thit b gn n lc hng hoc ang vn hnh gn vi cng sut ton phn, kch hot vic kt cu li theo thi gian thc trong trng hp s c mt in, ti u ho kt cu li in cc c quan chc nng hi lng thy rng cc quyt nh u t a ra l rt thn trng. Php phn tch li in tin tin tp trung vo tui ca thit b, thit k li in v iu kin vn hnh li in. Php phn tch tui ca thit b tp trung vo cc vn : khi no cn thay thit b v cch "chm nom" khi thit b bt u hng. Bi l, thit b cng kiu th cch hng cng ging nhau, do vy c th phn tch cc thit b ny trn c s cc thng tin h i c v phng thc s dng. Mt khi c thm d liu theo thi gian thc t cc cm bin, php phn tch tui th c th a ra c nhng tin on chnh xc hn v tui th ca tng thit b ring l. Khi thit b bt u hng, php phn tch chi tit c th gi v cch hiu chnh li in bo v thit b v trnh xy ra s c t ngt. Ti u ho thit k li in cng c th gim chi ph vn hnh li in v gip ct gim chi ph vn. Khng cn n nhng thng tin qu chi tit, cc DNO c th p ng c ph ti gia tng bng cch nng cp ton b li in, coi nh gi nh m i khch hng u l "h tiu th ln nht". Bng cch phn tch c tnh ph ti ca tng khch hng ring l c th gip xc nh liu c cn hoc khi no thc s cn phi tin hnh nng cp. Phn tch chi tit c tnh ph ti cng gip DNO cn bng ph ti cc pha, gim tn tht li in. Kt hp vi cc kt qu phn tch tui ca thit b, c th ti u ho vic lp k hoch bo dng. Phn tch vn hnh li in tp trung vo cc dng cng sut trong phm vi l i in, gip nng cao tin cy, gim hoc gc li sau cc khon chi ph vn. Bng cch theo di cc dng s c c th xy ra, ngi vn hnh li in c th cho tch li in v phn dng dng s c khng th gy qu ti cho nhng thit b trng yu v ct r i

SVTH: L NGC H

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nhng vng bao quanh khu vc c ri ro xut hin s c, d xc sut xy ra ch mc thp. D liu t cc cng t thng minh cho php iu k s n vng c s c, mang theo nhng thit b thc s cn thit. Kim tra dng cng sut theo thi gian thc cng cho php qun l li in c u n i ngun in phn b. Bn cng c cng ngh tr gip Li in thng minh c s tr gip ca 4 cng ngh h tr: Qun l cng t t ng ho; qun l v kim tra thit b t xa; qun l nhn lc c ng; v SCADA (H thng gim st v thu thp d liu) nh Internet. Cng t thng minh lp t ti cc h gia nh v cc doanh nghip cho php tnh gi theo thi im s dng, nh khuyn khch khch hng bt s dng in nng vo gi cao im. Cc cng trnh nghin cu M cho thy p dng mc va phi vic tnh gi theo thi im s dng c th gi m nhu cu cng sut c 5,2%. Nm 1998, cng ty Gulf Power (bang Florida) p dng chng trnh mang tn "Good Cents", nh ct gim c gn 45% mc tiu th trong gi cao im. Tnh gi theo thi im s dng cng nhn c s ng h ca cc c quan chc nng, bi v phng php ny kim ch mc tng trng nhu cu ph ti nh, cho php cc DNO tr hon vic nng cp li in, nh gi gi in n nh. Cng t thng minh lp trn li in cng c th gip DNO xc nh ni c hin tng n cp in. C th nh nu cng t ti mt trm bin p h th cho thy qu nhiu in nng tht thot th c th l hin tng n cp in ang xy ra gn . Cng c tr gip th hai - qun l v kim tra thit b t xa - c th ko di tui th nhng c s h tng ti quan trng v ci thin cng tc dch v khch hng, nh lng trc c s c. Trc tin, cc cm bin t xa c th pht hin liu cc hin tng trn li i n c ph hp vi nng lc ca li in hay khng v cnh bo ngi vn hnh m i khi c mt thnh phn li in bt u vt ra ngoi phm vi vn hnh ti u. Bng cch theo di liu dng cng sut c nm trong phm vi ti u hay khng, ngi vn hnh c th cho cc thnh phn li in mang ti cao hn kh nng bnh thng. Th hai, cc cm bin c th pht hin khi c mt b phn li in bt u b hng. Da trn thng tin phn h i t cc cm bin ny, trung tm iu khin c th hiu chnh kt cu li in gim ti cho cc b phn b h hi ny v cnh bo k s ti hin trng khi no tnh trng h hi c kh nng gy mt an ton cho thit b. Cm bin trn ng dy truyn ti c th cnh bo trng hp cy mc vn ln qu gn dy

SVTH: L NGC H

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Bi tiu lun: tm hiu HT Vit Nam

GVDH:TRN VINH TNH

in. D liu v a im d bo s c loi ny c th s dng iu nhn lc n n i b nh hng. Cng vy, t cng t thng minh ti h tiu th c th nng cao trnh dch v v nh vy c th xc nh c ni xy ra s c trn li in v c c nhng d liu chn on rt ngn thi gian sa cha. Cng c tr gip th ba - qun l nhn lc c ng gip y nhanh tin v nng cao chnh xc ca cng tc bo dng v sa cha, nh x l dng d liu t cc b cm bin truyn qua trung tm iu khin n cc i sa cha c trang b my tr gip c nhn (PDA). Nu nh thit b vt ra ngoi dung sai cho php hoc nu s c c th gy nguy him, ngi vn hnh li in c th a ra cc ch dn chi tit v cng tc sa cha hoc cnh bo h trnh nhng vng nguy him. Cng c tr gip th t - SCADA hot ng da vo Internet - c th ct gi m chi ph vin thng t 20% tr ln, c cu trc mnh, t chu nh hng ca l i, c th m rng d dng nh h tr vic trin khai s dng cc b cm bin, cng t thng minh v cc PDA trn phm vi ton b li in, vi s lng nhiu khi vt qu gii hn m cc mng vin thng hin c c th thc hin. Li in phn phi v vn k thut gim tn tht in nng. 1. S pht trin ca li in phn ph i Phn ph i in l khu cu i cng ca h thng in a in nng trc tip n ngi tiu dng. Li in phn ph i bao gm li in trung p v li in h p. Tnh n cu i nm 2004, tng chiu di ng dy trung p bng khong 115 nghn km, tng chiu di ng dy h p gn 110 nghn km, tng dung lng cc trm bin p h p gn 29 nghn MVA. Li in phn ph i do 3 cng ty in lc min, 2 cng ty in lc thnh ph v 3 cng ty in lc tnh qun l. n thng 6 nm 2005, li in phn ph i cung cp in cho 525 huyn trong tng s 536 huyn trn 64 tnh thnh ph. Nu tnh theo s x, c 8689 x trong tng s 9024 x trn c nc c in. Cc x, huyn cn li cha c in li Quc gia hin ang s dng ngun in ti ch l thy in nh hoc my pht in diesel [1]. Chng trnh in nng thn ca Chnh ph s tip tc y mnh pht trin li in phn phi, m bo 100% s x, huyn c cp in. Cng vi Tng s pht tri n in lc VI c ph duyt l k hoch ci to v pht trin li in trung p. Kh i lng li in phn ph i d kin xy dng n nm 2020 s bao gm hn 120.000 km ng dy trung p, gn 85.000 MVA trm phn ph i v gn 93.000 km ng dy h p [1]. Kh i lng d kin ci to v xy dng s tng ng vi kh i lng li phn ph i hin hu. Vi li in phn phi c quy m gp i hin ti, cc cng ty in lc v cc in lc t nh, thnh ph s phi i din vi nhng kh khn nht nh trong cng tc qun l u t xy dng v qun l vn hnh. Do vy, vic m bo v nng cao nng lc qun l l cn thit v phi ch trng ngay t giai on chun b hin nay. Cc vn k thut ca li in phn ph i trong c vn gim tn tht in nng vn s l trng tm trong cng tc iu hnh qun l. gii quyt cc kh khn ny, ng th i SVTH: L NGC H Trang: 28

Bi tiu lun: tm hiu HT Vit Nam

GVDH:TRN VINH TNH

nng cao nng lc qun l k thut trong c vn gim tn tht in nng, cc Cng ty in lc cn ng dng cc bin php cng ngh hin i ang ngy cng c s dng ph bin trn th gii. 2. Mt s c im ca li in phn ph i Li in phn ph i c cc c im v thit k v vn hnh khc vi li in truyn ti. Li in phn ph i phn b trn din rng, thng vn hnh khng i xng v c tn tht ln hn. Kinh nghim cc in lc trn th gii cho thy tn tht thp nht trn li phn ph i vo khong 4%, trong khi trn li truyn ti l khong 2% [2]. Vn tn tht trn li phn ph i lin quan cht ch n cc vn k thut ca li in t giai on thit k n vn hnh. Do trn c s cc s liu v tn tht c th nh gi s b cht lng vn hnh ca li in phn ph i. Trong nhng nm gn y, li in phn ph i ca nc ta pht trin mnh, cc Cng ty in lc cng c phn cp mnh v qun l. Cht lng vn hnh ca l i phn ph i c cng cao r rt, t l tn tht in nng gim mnh. T l tn tht trn li phn ph i t mc cao nht ti Cng ty in lc 2 nm 2000 bng 12% n n m 2004 ch cn 9,4%. T l tn tht ca Cng ty in lc ng Nai sut 5 nm qua mc 4% n 5% gn mc thp nht. Mc d t l tn tht trn li in phn ph i gim ng k trong thi gian qua,nhng mc gim tn tht ny vn cn rt khim tn. Chnh ph c quyt nh yu cu EVN gim mc tn tht trn ton li in (bao gm c l i truyn ti) xung mc 11% vo nm 2006 v 9% vo nm 2010 [3]. Thc t trong 6 thng u nm 2007, mc tn tht in nng ca EVN l 11,43%, cao hn k hoch l 0,93% [4]. Nh vy vn cn nhiu bin php ng b cn thc hin t c mc tiu gim tn tht trn li in. Phn tch cc bin php gim tn tht in nng cho thy nu thc hin tt, tn tht in nng trn li phn ph i c th h thp ng k. Chng hn nh trng hp in lc Th c, nm 2003 t l tn tht vo khong 5%, nm 2004 t l gim xung cn 4,79%, n nm 2005 l 4,32% v nm 2006 gim xung mc 4,15% [5]. Tn tht trn li in phn phi bao gm tn tht phi k thut (tn tht thng mi) v tn tht k thut. Tn tht phi k thut (tn tht thng mi) bao gm 4 dng tn tht nh sau [2]: Trm in (cu, mc trm). Khng thanh ton hoc chm thanh ton ha n tin in. Sai st tnh ton tn tht k thut. Sai st thng k phn loi v tnh ha n khch hng. Tn tht phi k thut ph thuc vo c ch qun l, quy trnh qun l hnh chnh, h thng cng t o m v thc ca ngi s dng. Tn tht phi k thut cng mt phn chu nh hng ca nng lc v cng c qun l ca bn thn cc in lc, trong c phng tin my mc, my tnh, phn mm qun l. Tn tht k thut trn li in phn ph i ch yu trn dy dn v cc my bi n p phn phi. Tn tht k thut bao gm tn tht cng sut tc dng v tn tht cng sut phn khng. Tn tht cng sut phn khng do t thng r v gy t trong cc my bi n p v cm khng trn ng dy. Tn tht cng sut phn khng ch lm lch gc v t nh hng n tn tht in nng. Tn tht cng sut tc dng c nh hng ng k n tn tht in nng. Thnh phn tn tht in nng do tn tht cng sut tc dng c tnh ton nh sau: A = P( t). dt (1)

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Trong , P(t) l tn tht cng sut tc dng trn ng dy v my bin p ti thi im t. Vic tnh ton tn tht in nng theo cng thc (1) thng thng thc hin theo phng php dng in ng tr ph thuc vo th ph ti hoc theo thi gian s dng 4 cng sut ln nht [7]. Tn tht cng sut tc dng bao gm tn tht st, do dng in Foucault trong li thp v tn tht ng do hiu ng Joule trong my bin p. Cc loi tn tht ny c cc nguyn nhn ch yu nh sau: ng dy phn ph i qu di, bn knh cp in ln Tit din dy dn qu nh, ng dy b xung cp, khng c ci to nng cp My bin p phn ph i thng xuyn mang ti nng hoc qu ti My bin p l loi c t l tn tht cao hoc vt liu li t khng tt dn n saumt thi gian tn tht tng ln Vn hnh khng i xng lin tc dn n tng tn tht trn my bin p Nhiu thnh phn sng hi ca cc ph ti cng nghip tc ng vo cc cun dy my bin p lm tng tn tht Vn hnh vi h s cos thp do thiu cng sut phn khng 3. Cc gii php k thut gim tn tht trn li phn ph i Mc tiu gim tn tht trn li in phn phi chu tc ng ca rt nhiu yu t v i h i nhiu bin php ng b. Cc bin php qun l, hnh chnh nhm gim tn tht thng mi cn thc hin song song vi cc n lc gim tn tht k thut. C th lit k cc bin php chnh gim tn tht k thut trong li in phn phi nh sau: Ti u ha cc ch vn hnh li in Hn ch vn hnh khng i xng Gim chiu di ng dy, ci to nng tit din dy dn hoc gim bn knh cpin ca cc trm bin p Lp t h thng t b cng sut phn khng m bo h s cng sut cos Tng dung lng cc my bin p chu ti nng, qu ti, la chn cc my bi n p t l tn tht tht thp, li thp lm bng vt liu thp tt, lp t cc my bin p 1 pha. Mt s cc bin php k thut cn thc hin trong giai on thit k-quy hoch hoc ci to, u t xy dng cng trnh. Tuy nhin, cc bin php k thut p dng trong qu trnh vn hnh li l cc bin php thit thc v hiu qu nht v thng gp nhiu kh khn. Chng hn, ph ti c c im bin ng theo thi gian v tng ln theo khu vc, do dung lng thit b b cng sut phn khng ti cc nt s lun thay i ch khng bt bin. Do vy cn phi xc nh li cc v tr lp t v iu chnh lng cng sut b trn 5 li in khi cn thit. Vi v tr lp t v lng cng sut b ti u, c th gim t 5% n 20% mc tn tht in nng [2]. Vn hnh khng i xng nh hng n t l tn tht nhng vic xc nh v phn tch cc phng n vn hnh tm ra phng n ti u rt kh khn. Tng t nh vy, hin nay ph ti cng nghip tng ln ng k, thnh phn sng hi ca cc ph ti loi ny l nguyn nhn tng tn tht in nng trong cc my bin p. Vic phn tch, nh gi nhm a ra bin php gim cc tc ng ca sng hi i h i nhng phng tin cng ngh nht nh. Mt gii php cng ngh cho php gii quyt c bn cc vn k thut trn c T vn KEMA (M) kin ngh s dng trong cc Cng ty in lc [6, mc 7.5.2]. chnh l ng dng phn mm cng ngh phn tch li in phn ph i( xem lin kt trong din n ny, s bi vit ca bn phi l 5 hoc cao hn. Hin ti bn c 0 bi vit..)

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GVDH:TRN VINH TNH

Phn mm phn tch li in phn ph i thc hin cc tnh ton ti u ch vn hnh, lp cc phng n x l trong cc trng hp s c, sa thi ph ti. S li in c m t theo pha v phn b trn nn bn s cho php lp k hoch thi im xut hin ph ti, tnh ton cc ch lm vic ca li in phn ph i. Ngoi vic gii quyt cc vn k thut nh phn tch phn b cng sut phn khng, xc nh cc thnh phn sng hi, tnh ton ch vn hnh khng i xng, gii php phn mm cn cho php tnh ton lp k hoch gim tn tht trn c s ti u ha ch vn hnh li in. K hoch gim tn tht in nng c th c xy dng t nhiu cc 6 phng n k thut v theo l trnh phn b theo thi gian. K hoch cng c th thay i cp nht ph hp vi s bin ng ca ph ti hoc ngun in cung cp. Vi cc chc nng kt hp nh gi v phn tch tin cy vn hnh ca li in, ph n mm l cng c h tr cng tc thit k, qun l vn hnh hin i ang c s dng trn th gii. Cc gii php nh qun l s c (OMS-Outage Management System), ng dng nn bn s (GIS) hay ht hp vi h thng thu thp v qun l d liu (SCADA) u c th ng dng cng vi phn mm. Nng cao nng lc thng qua cc cng c hin i v ng b l mt trong nhng hng i tch cc nhm t c mc tiu v qun l vn hnh li in phn ph i. Gim tn tht in nng s vn l mc tiu quan trng ca cc cng ty in lc. Gii php ph n mm phn tch li in phn ph i l mt cng c mnh ang c khai thc s dng rt hiu qu ti nhiu cng ty in lc trn th gii. Vic tip cn v lm ch cng ngh l bin php hiu qu gip nng cao nng lc ca cc k s thit k v vn hnh li in.

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