CHNG 5: NGOAI THNG VA PHAT TRIEN

I. Vai tro cua ngoai thng trong qua trnh phat trien. II. Chien lc xuat khau san pham tho (primary product export strategy). III. Chien lc thay the nhap khau- hng noi (ISS import substitution trategy- inward looking) IV. Chien lc nh hng xuat khau- hng ngoai (EOS export-oriented trategy- outward looking)

II. Chien lc xuat khau san pham tho (primary product export strategy). San pham tho la san pham cha che bien hoac ch mi s che va chu yeu la san pham cua nganh nong nghiep (nong san) va SP cua nganh khai thac (dau, than, khoang san..) Li iem: -Thuc ay s dung cac yeu to thuan li san co. - Tang thu nhap ngoai te -Tao ra nhng anh hng lien ket: gia cac nganh; l/k tieu dung; l/k c s ha tang; l/k ve von con ngi; l/k ve von.

Nhng tr ngai cua chien lc XK tho: - Nhu cau san pham tho tang cham ( tien bo ky thuat cho phep giam tieu hao NVL va tao ra SP thay the) - Thu nhap xuat khau khong on nh ( cung, cau khong co dan theo gia). - Gia ca giam sut (do ap dung thanh tu KHKT tang nang suat, san lng). - Tap trung qua mc nhan lc, vat lc vao mot hay mot so t nganh kho a dang hoa nen KT.

Nhng giai phap khac phuc tr ngai: - Ngh quyet trat t kinh te the gii mi 1974 - Chng trnh tong hp ve hang hoa; kho d tr 18 loai thc pham va nguyen lieu can ban). - Cac nc xuat khau cung mat hang lien ket thanh lap hiep hoi (OPEC, ICO..) - Tr cap cho cac nc ang PT trong trng hp mat mua lien tiep 3, 4 nam lien.

Bung no XK anh hng en TGH thc ? RER = (Eo.Pt) / Pn Eo: TGH danh ngha Pt: ch so gia cua hang hoa co the trao oi tnh theo ngoai te Pn: ch so gia cua hang hoa khong the trao oi Khi RER tang do Eo tang. Pt tang hay Pn giam Pt/Pn tang kch thch SX ( khong kch thch tieu dung) hang hoa co the trao oi Khi Pn tang th RER giam.

 Khi RER tang, Eo tang, ong noi te giam gia thc s. Khi RER giam, Eo giam, ong noi te tang gia thc s Bung no XK tho lam giam RER theo 2 cach: 1- Thu nhap ngoai te tang ong noi te tang gia Eo giam RER giam 2- Thu nhap tang tieu dung tang lam phat tang Pn tang RER giam

III. Chien lc thay the nhap khau. Nguyen nhan chien lc nay thu hut: - S co vu bi thanh tu CNH cua Lien bang Xo viet. - Y ch t lc canh sinh. - Viec van chuyen kho khan trong thi gian chien tranh. - Cac nc phat trien xem thue quan la mot cong cu hu hieu bao ve SX trong nc.

P ($/vsp)

8 6 4 B
E

100

120 200

250

300

iem khac biet gia thue quan va han ngach

- Thue quan tac ong vao gia hang NK. - Thue quan mang lai nguon thu cho ngan sach. - Gia TG giam Gia trong nc giam ngi tieu dung co li chuyen sang xai hang ngoai, NHK tang SX trong nc giam - Khi DN tang gia ngi tieu dung se chuyen qua hang NK

- Han ngach tac ong vao lng - Mang lai ac li cho ngi c phan bo han ngach. - NK khong tang, SX va TD noi a khong oi - Ngi TD b ngan khong chuyen sang hang Nk c

 U: - Tiet kiem ngoai te. - Tiep thu cong nghe, tch luykien thc - Kch thch hnh thanh nhng nganh cong nghiep mi. - Co san th trng trong nc. - Chu ong thay the khi nguon nhap gap hko khan

Bao ho lau dai gay nen tnh trang y lai N nc ngoai co the gia tang. Moc ngoac hoi lo e c phan bo han ngach. Nc co th trng nho khong thu hut c von au t nc ngoai. Co the lam phan phoi thu nhap xau i trong giai oan au Chien tranh thng mai

NHC

Ty suat bao ho (o lng mc o bao ho)

-Ty suat bao ho danh ngha: thue suat ghi trong bieu thue -Ty suat bao ho hieu qua hay hieu dung ERP(efficient rate of protection)

VA'VA ( Pd Cd ) ( Pw Cw) Pwtp Cwtc ERP VA ( Pw Cw) Pw Cw

VA&VA: gia tr gia tang theo gia trong nc & the gii Pd &Cd: gia thanh pham & nguyen vat lieu theo gia TG Pw &Cw: gia thanh pham & nguyen vat lieu theo gia trong nc

 V du: thanh pham F c san xuat t 2 nguyen lieu A&B, Pf=1000$; Pa=500$; Pb=200$. e khuyen khch SX trong nc nha nc anh thue thanh phamcao hn vi nguyen vat lieu; tf =10%; ta=5%;tb=8%. ERP=? VA= 1000 (500 + 200) = 300 Pf = 1000 +10%1000 = 1100; Pa = 500 +5%500=525 Pb = 200+8%200 = 216; VA = 1100 (525+216) = 359 ERP = (359 -300)/300 = 19,7% Neu F c san xuat t n nguyen vat lieu

ERP

(tj aij.ti)
i 1

1 aij

0.01 (0,5.0,05 0,2.0.08 ) 19 ,7% 1 (0,5 0,2)

IV. CHIEN LC AY MANH XUAT KHAU

Nhng nam 70, cac nc ong A a khi xng chien lc ay manh XK nhng SP ho co li the so sanh (tham dung lao ong) sang cac nc phat trien Li the: - Tao thu nhap ngoai te. - tan dung li the kinh te theo qui mo. - Tao cong an viec lam

CAC VAN E CAN QUAN TAM KHI THC HIEN CHIEN LC NAY 1- Chnh sach TGH va cac chnh sach on bay co lien quan (thue, tn dung, giam bao ho // tr cap XK). 2- Gia ca cac yeu to SX va s tr giup cua nha nc (thong tin, CSHT..) 3- On nh va ieu chnh c cau: cac co gang chuyen hng chien lc c WB, IMF giup bang tn dung u ai khac phuc mat can oi v mo nh lam phat cao, boi chi ngan sach, mat can bang can can thanh toan, can can thng mai (co ieu kien)

Philipines (Peso)
Ty Gia (P/$)

An o (Rupee)
Ty gia (R/$) 30 R/$ n gia (Rupee) 90 R n gia ($) 3$

n gia (peso) n gia ($) 45 P 3$

15 P/$

15 P/$

45 + 10%45= 49,5 P

3,3$

30 P/$ 90 + 20%90 = 3,6$(3, 108 R 3$) (32,7P/$)

1- Cac nha SX ln b thiet thoi a ong gop van ong tranh c cho cac ngh s quoc hoi (My); tac ong qua cac ang phai chong lai viec m ca th trng 2- Lien ket qua GATT (general agrrements on tariff & trade) da tren MFN (most favoured nation)- WTO 1/1/1995 3- Cac hang rao phi thue quan

CAC BIEN PHAP BAO HO CUA CAC NC PHAT TRIEN

Phi thue
H/ che /lng TC-TT phi thue

Ky thuat

Hanh chnh
Thu mua CP

Cam
Giay phep

Ky qu
TGH
Ho tr XK

Chat lng Bao b

Thu tuc HQ
Ng/lieu noi a

Han ngach

Nhan hieu
>< ban pha gia Moi trng

VER

Tn dung

Tr cap

CAC MC O LIEN KET

1- Vung mau dch t do: xoa bo thue quan gia cac nc thanh vien nhng moi nc co bieu thue quan rieng. 2-Lien minh thue quan: xoa bo thue quan gia cac nc thanh vien va co bieu thue quan chung oi vi cac nc ngoai khoi. 3- Th trng chung= (2) + t do di chuyen von & lao ong 4-Lien minh kinh te = (3) + thong nhat ve chnh sach tai chnh tien te.

Bai 5: 1- Pd = Pw + Pwtp = 6000 +6000.50% = 9000 F 2- Trc thue, cau 1000, cung 0, NK = 1000 Sau thue, cau 800, cung 500, NK = 300 3- Chi tieu trc thue = lng cau trc thue. Gia trc thue = 1000. 6000 = 6.000.000 F Chi tieu sau thue = lng cau sau thue. Gia sau thue = 800. 9000 = 7.200.000 F 4- Thue NK ma nha nc thu c: = lng NK. Thue/vsp = 300.(9000 -6000)= 900.000 F 5- Doanh thu cua nha SX trong nc sau thue: = Lng cung sau thue. Gia ban sau thue = 500 . 9000 = 4.500.000 F

Bai 6:
a) Pd = Pw + Pwtp = 40 +40.15% = 46 $ b) Thue NK ma nha nc thu c:
= lng NK. Thue/vsp = (700 -400).(46 - 40)= 1800 $

c) Li nhuan = lng cung. Li nhuan/vsp = lng cung. ( gia ban chi ph)

= 400. (46 25 5 )= 6400 $ d)Ty suat bao ho hieu qua:

Pwtp Cwtc 40.15% - 25.10% 6 2,5 = ------------------ = ----------------------- = ----------- = 0,23 Pw Cw 40 25 15 = 23%