Chuong 7-So Do Mang (CPM & PERT)

TRNG CAO NG
KINH
TT
K THUT SI GN
TON
KINH
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
Khoa Kinh t & Qun tr Kinh doanh
Ging vin: PGS. TS. NGUYN THNG

E-mail: nguyenthong@hcmut.edu.vn or nthong56@yahoo.fr
Web: http://www4.hcmut.edu.vn/~nguyenthong/
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
TON KINH T
TON KINH T
NI DUNG MN HC
Chng 1: Gi tr tin t theo thi gian
Chng 2: Chui dng tin & Ch tiu nh gi
Chng 3: Cc kin thc m u v phng
php ti u
Chng 4: Quy hoch tuyn tnh (QHTT)
Chng 5: Cc dng c bit pp. QHTT
Chng 6: Bi ton vn ti.
Chng 7: S mng (CPM & PERT).
Tl. (08) 38 640 979 - 098 99 66 719
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
TON KINH T
TON KINH T
TON KINH T
TI LIU THAM KHO

1. Ton kinh t. PGS. TS Nguyn Qung & TS.
Nguyn Thng Thi.
2. Cc phng php ton kinh t. PGS. TS.
Nguyn Hi Thanh.
S
MNG
(CPM & PERT)
1. Download ti liu ging ti:
http:// www4.hcmut.edu.vn/~nguyenthong
Th mc: Bi ging
3
9/19/2011
PGS. Dr. Nguyn Thng
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
TON KINH T
TON KINH T
S MNG
Gm c 2 phng php
- Phng php ng gng CPM
(Critical Path Method)
Phng php ny s dng m hnh
tt nh, thi gian hon thnh mi
hng mc cng vic c bn l hng
s.
- Phng php PERT

(Project Evaluation and Review
Techniques)
Phng php ny s dng m hnh
xc sut theo thi gian hon
thnh cng vic c cho di
dng hm phn phi xc sut
(phn phi bta).
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
TON KINH T
TON KINH T
PHNG PHP CPM

Mt vi nh ngha qui c:
i
S kin i
HAM MAT O XAC SUAT PHAN PHOI BETA

p
Hm mt xc
sut bta
Xc sut xy
ra b l
1%
Xc sut xy
ra a l
1%
S kin xut pht i

A
t
Thun li
a
Bt li Thi gian
hon
b
thnh
Bnh thng
m
S kin kt thc j
j
Thi gian hon thnh c/tc A
Cng tc A(t)
7
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
TON KINH T
TON KINH T
Thit lp mt s mng c 2 phng

php :
Phng php 1 : Thit lp theo s trong
mt cng tc c bn biu th bng 1
vect (trong mt s ti liu ngi ta gi
y l phng php AOA - Activity On
Arrow).
j
Phng php 2 : Thit lp theo s

trong mt cng tc c bn biu th
bng 1 nt (trong mt s ti liu ngi
ta gi y l phng php AON Activity On Node).
A (5)
B (10)
B(10)
A (5)
k
9
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
10
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
TON KINH T
TON KINH T
V nguyn tc ta c th chuyn i t s
mng dng AON thnh dng AOA v ngc li.
Xem cc v d sau :
Xt cc cng tc a, b, c,.., f v k hiu cc s kin
1, 2,, 6.
a
Start
A-O-N
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
A-O-A
4
Ao
b
5
ung
a
3
b
b
oi thanh
b
Sai v a=34 va b=34
Start
Cong tac ao (Dummy)

a
e
c
11
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
Ao
4
d khong oi hoi sau cong tac c
12
TON KINH T
TON KINH T
Phng phap lap s o mang:
V d: Lp s mng ca cng tc
sau:
3
2
4
Cng tc
A
B
C
D
E
3
4
Cng tc i trc
Khng c
Khng c
A
C
B, C
Nn
Khng nn
13
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
14
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
TON KINH T
TON KINH T
Ket qua:
Bi tp: V s mng A-O-A cho d

n c m t bi cc cng vic sau:
A
Cng vic
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
E
B
Cong tac ao
Cng vic trc
A
A
B, C
B, C
D, E
Thi gian hon thnh

(tun)
4
2
5
4
6
1
6
15
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
TON KINH T
TON KINH T
Bi tp: Lp s mng ca cng tc sau:

(Xem li gii trong Bi tp PERT)
Li gii
D
Bt u
Kt thc
E
B
17
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
16
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
Cng vic
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
Cng tc i trc
sau A
sau A
sau B, C
sau B, C
sau D, E
sau D, E
sau H, F
Sau G, I
18
TON KINH T
TON KINH T
CC THNG S CA S MNG
Thi im sm nht cng tc bt u
ES
ES (Earliest Start) l thi im sm nht
cng tc c th bt u.
Thi im sm nht cng tc kt thc
EF
EF (Earliest Final) l thi im sm nht
cng tc c th kt thc.
Thi im mun nht cng tc

bt u LS
LS (Latest Start) l thi im mun
nht m cng tc phi bt u.
Thi im mun nht cng tc
kt thc LF
LF (Latest Final) l thi im mun
nht m cng tc phi kt thc.
19
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
20
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
TON KINH T
TON KINH T
PHNG PHP
CPM
9/19/2011
M HNH CPM PHNG PHP XC

NH NG GNG
nh ngha: ng gng l tp hp cc
cng vic c bn (thnh chui lin tc)
t khi u n kt thc d n vi tnh
cht l bt k mt s ko di thi gian
hon thnh ca bt k cng vic c bn
no trn ng gng cng ko theo s
ko di thi gian hon thnh d n.
21
PGS. Dr. Nguyn Thng
TON KINH T
TON KINH T
c s liu xc nh ng gng cho

s mng thc hin 2 bc:
Bc 1: Gii bi ton xui dng vi
khi hnh sm.
Bc 2: Gii bi ton ngc dng vi
kt thc tr.
T cc kt qu trong Bc 1 & 2 s
xc nh ng gng.
23
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
22
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
V d: Xt mt d n xy dng X vi cc
hng mc cng vic v thi gian han
thnh c trnh by trong bng sau:
Cng vic
Thi gian k vng hon thnh cng

tc (tun)
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
2
3
2
4
4
3
5
2
25 tun
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
24
TON KINH T
TON KINH T
Bc 1 : Gii xui dng vi khi hnh sm

ESi : thi im khi hnh cng vic i sm
nht.
EFi : thi im kt thc cng vic i sm nht.
Gi cng vic i c thi gian hon thnh l t. Ta
c quan h sau:
EFi = ESi + t
Ti bt k mt nt s kin i no ta c tnh
cht :
ESi =Max(EFi)
25
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
Earliest Start
Time (ES)
26
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
A
t=2
Earliest Start B
t=3
Time (ES)
j
k
5
TON KINH T
Earliest Final
Time (EF)
Gii xui
dng
5 =Max(2,5)
t=4 C
9 m
Earliest Start
Earliest Final
Time (ES)
Time (EF)
XUI DNG
A (t=2)
ES=4
Start
ES=0
F (t=3)
EF=7
H (t=2)
6
E (t=4)
B (t=3)
D (t=4)
3
EF=8
5
ES=3
27
ES=13
EF=13
End
EF=15
G (t=5)
ES=8
EF=7
28
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
TON KINH T
ES=4
ES=2
EF=3
KHI HANH SM
KHI HNH SM
C (t=2) EF=4
EF=2
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
Thi gian can thiet hoan thanh d an
TON KINH T
GHI CH
Khi gii xui dng cn ch cc im nt
c s hi t ca t nht 2 cng vic
(v d nt 5, nt 6).
Ti s kin 5, ES =8 v G ch c th bt
u sm nht khi c 2 cng vic E v D
u kt thc. Trong khi D kt thc thc
sm nht l EF=7 tun v E kt thc sm
nht l EF=8 tun, do G ch c th bt
u sm nht sau 8 tun m thi.
Tng t ti s kin 6, cng vic ch c

th bt u sm nht ES=13 tun v kt
thc sm nht ca G l EF=13 tun, mc
d kt thc sm nht ca F l EF=7 tun.
Theo kt qu bi ton xui dng ta c
thi gian cn thit hon thnh d n
l 15 tun.
29
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
2 (ES)
B
t=2
Earliest Start t=5
7 3
Time (ES)
Earliest Final
XUI DNG
Time (EF)
KHI HANH SM
0
TON KINH T
Earliest Start
Time (ES)
Earliest Final
Time (EF)
30
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
TON KINH T
TON KINH T
Bc 2: Gii ngc dng vi kt thc tr

LSi : thi im khi hnh cng vic i tr
nht.
LFi : thi im kt thc cng vic i tr nht.
Gi cng vic i c thi gian hon thnh l t.
Ta c quan h sau:
LSi = LFi - t
Ti bt k mt nt s kin i no ta c tnh
cht :
LFi =Min(LSi)
Latest Start
Time (LS)
1
Latest Final
Time (LF)
6
t=2
Latest Start
Time (LS)
B
t=4
10 3
Latest Final
Time (LF)
NG)C DO*NG
KET THUC MUON
31
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
32
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
TON KINH T
LF=6
[Min(6,8)]
A
C
TON KINH T
Gii ngc
dng
Ngc dng
2
LS=6
LS=8
LF=2
LS=0
A(t=2)
C (t=2) LF=4
2
KT THC TR
LS=10
F (t=3)
LF=13
LS=2
LS=4
H (t=2)
Start
E (t=4)
LS=1
B (t=3)
4
LF=4
KET THUC MUON
D (t=4)
3
LF=8
5
LS=4 LF=8
LS=13
LF=13
LS=8
Gia tr t li
giai xuoi dong
34
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
TON KINH T
TON KINH T
Ghi ch: Khi gii ngc dng cn

ch cc im nt c s
xut pht ca t nht 2 cng vic
(v d nt 4).
Ti s kin 4, thi gian tr nht
phi c l LF=4 v thi gian khi
hnh tr nht ti nt 4 phi l
min(LS=4, LS=10).
XC NH NG GNG
LF
LS
Cng tc A
EF
ES
Cng tc A l gng LS = ES
(hay LF =EF)
35
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
LF=15
G (t=5)
33
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
End
36
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
TON KINH T
Cng vic
ES
LS
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
0
0
2
3
4
4
8
13
0
1
2
4
4
10
8
13
TON KINH T
(LS-ES) T/ng gng ?

0
1
0
1
0
6
0
0
C
Khng
C
Khng
C
Khng
C
C
KET QUA XAC NH NG GANG T CPM

A-C-E-G-H NG GNG
C (t=2)
2
4
F (t=3)
A (t=2)
H (t=2)
Start
E (t=4)
B (t=3)
D (t=4)
3
G (t=5)
5
37
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
38
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
TON KINH T
TON KINH T
Thi gian ti thiu hon thnh d

n
L thi im sm nht s kin
cui cng ca d n xy ra vaM kt
thc.
Thi gian ti thiu hon thnh
d n v d trn l 15 tun.
ng gng A-C-E-G-H
PHN TCH KT QU CPM

Qua vic tnh ton thng s s
mng ta c th xc nh c:
Thi gian ti thiu hon thnh
d n.
Thi gian d tr ca cc cng tc.
ng gng v cc cng tc gng.
39
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
40
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
TON KINH T
TON KINH T
NGHA CA NG GNG
Mi s mng c t nht mt
ng gng.
Tng thi gian ca tt c cc cng
tc nm trn ng gng chnh l
thi gian CAN THIET ti thiu
hon thnh d n.
Nu 1 cng tc trn ng gng b

tr th thi gian cn thit hon thnh
ton b d n s b tr theo.
Do vy mun rt ngn thi gian
hon thnh d n th nh qun l
phi tp trung cc gii php lm
gim thi gian cc cng tc trn
ng gng.
41
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
End
42
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
TON KINH T
TON KINH T
i vi cc cng tc khng gng ta c

th x dch thi gian thc hin
nhng vi iu kin khng c
vt qu thi gian d tr tng
ng.
Vi v duU trn ta c:
Cng tc B c 1 tun dU trV.
Cng tc F c 6 tun dU trV.
MOT DANG TRNH BAY KHAC KHI GIAI

XUOI & NGC DONG NG GANG
EF LF
ES LS
EF LF
2
B
ES LS
ES LS
43
44
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
TON KINH T
TON KINH T
Bi tp (CPM): Cho d n c s mng

sau. Xac nh ng gng, thi gian hon
thnh d n. C (t=5)
A (t=10)
Bi tp (CPM): Cho d n c s
mng sau. Xac nh ng gng, thi
gian hon thnh d n.
D=7
F (t=3)
A=5
Start
D (t=7)
H (t=2)
End
E=6
B=4
1
B (t=7)
3
E (t=11)
G (t=5)
C=6
K=10
H=5
I=8
J=8
L=12
F=5
3
G=7
46
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
TON KINH T
TON KINH T
PHNG PHAP PERT

(Program Evaluation and
Review Technique)
9/19/2011
45
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
PGS. Dr. Nguyn Thng
M=4
Vi phng php CPM thi gian hon

thnh 1 cng tc c bn l HNG S.
Phng php PERT thi gian hon
thnh 1 cng tc c bn c nh
ngha bi 3 giaZ tr tng ng vi:
- iu kin lm vic BT LI
- iu kin lm vic BNH THNG
- iu kin lm vic THUN LI
47
48
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
TON KINH T
TON KINH T
CC NH NGHA C BN
Thi gian hon thnh 1 cng tc c
bn trong pp. PERT c m t
bng mt quy lut xc sut bta vi
3 tham s: a, b, m:
Thi gian lc quan a: (Optimistic
time): l l2 thi gian hon thnh
cng tc ny trong /k thun li.
Thi gian bi quan b: (Pessimistic

time): l thi gian hon thnh
cng tc trong iu kin xu nht
(thi gian di nht).
Thi gian bnh thng m: l thi
gian hon thnh cng tc trong iu
kin bnh thng.
49
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
50
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
TON KINH T
TON KINH T
NHN XT
S khc bit c bn gia phng
php CPM & phng php PERT:
ti (thi gian hon thnh cc cng
tc c bn th i) trong CPM l tt
nh.
ti dng trong PERT l theo quy lut
xc sut (
).
HAM MAT O XAC SUAT PHAN PHOI BETA

p
Phn phi xc sut

bta
Xc sut xy
ra b l
1%
Xc sut xy
ra a l
1%
Thun li
a
Bnh thng
m
Bt li Thi gian
hon
b
thnh
51
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
TON KINH T
TON KINH T
Gi T l thi gian hon thnh dU n.

V ti l bin xc sut T l bin xc sut.
PERT gi thit T tun theo phn phi
chun N(T0,
T) vi T0 thi gian hon
thnh d n tnh t CPM &
=
2
T
i cng tc trn ng gng t CPM
[ ]
2
e
i
53
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
52
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
CC BC THC HIN CA
PHNG PHP PERT
Bc 1: Tnh te & e cho tng cng tc c

bn:
te =
a + 4m + b
e =
6
(b a )2
6
Bc 2: Dng te v p dng phng php

CPM xc nh NG GNG Thi
gian hon thnh d n T0 theo p/p CPM. 54
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
TON KINH T
TON KINH T
T kt qu phng php CPM

C T0 thi gian hon thnh
d n.
Trn ng gng tnh:
V = T2 = i2
HAI DNG BI TON CA PERT

Loi 1: n nh trc thi gian
hon thnh d n, TNH XC SUT
tng ng
Loi 2: Cho xc sut hon thnh
trc, TNH THI GIAN cn thit.
Vi i ch cc cng tc trn ng
gng.
55
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
TON KINH T
TON KINH T
Bc 3:
C Tx c a0 tra bng
phn phi chun N(0,1) p
Bi ton loi 1: Cho Tx , tnh xc sut p:

p = Pr(T Tx ) = Pr(
T T0
T
56
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
Tx T0
)
T
= Pr( t a o )
with t =
T T0
T
& a0 =
Tx T0
T
57
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
58
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
TON KINH T
TON KINH T
CH
T tun theo phn phi N(T0,
T) bin
i t t tun theo phn phi chun
N(0,1)
ti =
Ti T0
T
Tnh cht bin t

Gi tr trung bnh bng 0.
lch chun ca t l 1.
BiZn t KHNG coZ n v.
gi l php bin i trung tm v

chun ha bin T.
59
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
60
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
TON KINH T
TON KINH T
V du: Xet mot d an xay dng gom

cac cong viec c ban A, B,.H.
Cac thi gian hoan thanh cac cong
tac c ban trong cac ieu kien thi
cong khac nhau nh trong bng
sau:
Bc 3:
Bi ton loi 2: Cho p, tnh Tx:
p = Pr(T Tx ) = Pr(
T T0
T
Tx T0
)
T
= Pr( t a o )
C p tra bng N(0,1) a0
Tx = a 0 T + T0
61
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
62
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
TON KINH T
Cng Thi hon thnh cng tc (tun) Thi gian k vng
hon thnh d
vic
TON KINH T
Phng
sai V
n (tun)
/k thun /k bnh
li
thng
(a)
(m)
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
1
2
1
2
1
1
3
1
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
2
3
2
4
4
2
4
2
/k bt
li
(b)
3
4
3
6
7
9
11
3
a + 4m + b
6
2
GI
3
TR
2
DNG 4
4
TRONG 3
5
CPM
2
b a
6
C (t=2)
2
A (t=2)
4/36
4/36
4/36
16/36
36/36
64/36
64/36
4/36 63
25 tun
F (t=3)
H (t=2)
Start
E (t=4)
End
B (t=3)
D (t=4)
3
G (t=5)
5
64
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
TON KINH T
TON KINH T
a. Xc nh ng gng v thi gian

hon thnh d n vi phng php
CPM.
b. Xc nh xc sut d n han
thnh trong 16 tun.
c. Xc nh thi gian han thnh d n
vi xc sut 90%.
65
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
Rng buc v th t cng vic nh sau:

A Chun b mt bng ; B B tr ng thi cng ; C sau
A ; D sau B ; E sau C ; F sau C ; G sau D, E ; H Sau F,
G.
GII:
a. Dng phng php gii xui vi
khi hnh sm v li gii ngc
dng vi kt thc tr trong l thuyt
ca phng php CPM
Xc nh ng gng v thi gian
hon thnh d n vi cc gi tr thi
gian k vng hon thnh cc cng
vic c bn nh trn.
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
66
TON KINH T
TON KINH T
Thi gian hon thnh d n: 15 tun (t

CPM).
ng gng: A-C-E-G-H (t CPM).
b. Xc nh xc sut p% d n han
thnh trong 16 tun.
Gi tr phng sai trn ng gng:
V = 4/36 + 4/36 + 36/36 + 64/36 + 4/36 =
112/36 =3.11
lch chun:
Thi gian hoan thanh cong viec T tuan

theo
Phan phoi chuan : N(T0=15, T=1.76)
Theo l thuyt ca phng php PERT,
thi gian hon thnh d n s tun
theo phn phi chun c :
Gi tr trung bnh l T0=15 tun
lch chun T=1.76 tun.
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
T = V = 3.11 = 1.76 ( tuan67)
TON KINH T
68
TON KINH T
Thi gian han thnh d n gi thit

tun theo phn phi chun. Xc
sut hon thnh d n trong 16
tun c m t nh th sau:
Phn phi chun

N(T0=15,
T=1.76)
p16 : F=Xc sut

T<16 tun
Tun
S=15
p16 = Pr(T 16) = Pr(
16
T T0 16 15
) = Pr( t 0.57)
T
1.76
p16 = 1 Pr( t > 0.57) = 1 0.2843 = 0.7156

69
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
t tun theo phn phi chun N(0,1) , dng bng tra phn phi
70
chun N(0,1): p16 =71,56%. (xem bng tra N(0,1) cui)
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
TON KINH T
TON KINH T
c. Xc nh thi gian han thnh Tx d n vi xc sut 90%.
KT LUN
Xac sut hon thnh d n ni
trn t hn 16 tun l p=71,56%.
px =0,9: Xc sut
thi gian hon thnh
d n sau Tx tun
T0=15
p
Phn phi chun N
(T0=15,
T=1.76)
Tx=?
T (tun)
Vi px=0,9 dng bng tra phn phi chun ta c a0=1,28 t :
Tx = a 0 T + T0 = 17.25 weeks
71
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
72
TON KINH T
TON KINH T
Bai tap (PERT). Gia thiet rang phng sai cua

tat ca cong tac c ban trong bai tap trc la
V=6.
a. Xac nh xac suat e hoan thanh d an toi a
trong 2 t/hp: 14 tuan & 17 tuan.
b. Tnh thi gian t nhat can co e d an c
hoan thanh vi xac suat la 95%.
Kt k lun: xc sut hon thnh d

n p=0.9, ta cn thi gian l 17.25
tun.
Ghi ch: Thi gian gon thnh vi
xc sut p=50% l T0=15 tun.
p
T(tuan)
73
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng14
TON KINH T
Hng dn
p14 = Pr(T 14) = Pr(
= Pr( t
17
15 tuan
74
TON KINH T
Bin t: chun & trung

tm ha
Bi tp PERT
T T0 14 T0
)
T
T
14 15
) = Pr( t 0.408) = Pr( t > 0.408)
2.45
Tnh /xng hm mt
= 0.34
U x/sut chun
Xc sut e dU n hon thnh di
75
14 tun l 0.34
9/19/2011
TON KINH T
TON KINH T
Mt dU n c thi gian c tnh hon

thnh cc cng tc c bn vaM s M
mng c trnh by sau.
a. Dng p/p CPM xc nh ng gng &
thi gian hon thnh dU n.
b. Tm xc sut e hon thnh dU n ti
a l 40 tun.
c. Tnh thi gian ti thiu e xc sut
hon thnh dU n p=95%.
77
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
76
PGS. Dr. Nguyn Thng
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
Cng
vic
Cng tc i
trc
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
sau A
sau A
sau B, C
sau B, C
sau D, E
sau D, E
sau H, F
Sau G, I
Phng sai
Thi gian hon thnh trong /k (tun)
Thun li Binh thng Bt li Trung
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
(a)
(m)
(b)
4
3
2
1
2
5
8
5
6
4
5
4
4
2
4
6
10
7
8
5
12
11
6
9
12
13
24
15
16
12
bnh
6
5
4
3
5
7
12
8
9
6
V=(b-a)2/36
1,78
1,78
0,44
1,78
2,78
1,78
7,11
2,78
2,78
78
1,78
TON KINH T
TON KINH T
HD: T S LIU C BN S MNG SAU
Start
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
End
B
3
GIA
GIAI XUOI DO
DONG
NG
V
VI KH
KHI HA
HANH
NH S
SM (ES)
I
5
T=38 tuan (?)
9/19/2011
79
TON KINH T
EF=6
ES=0
A (6)
Start
B (5)
EF=5
EF=9
4
G (12)
D (3)
EF=27
EF=15 ES=15
E (5)
EF=10
3
TON KINH T
ES=6
ES=6
C (4)
80
PGS. Dr. Nguyn Thng
H (8)
F (7)
TIEP TUC GIAI NGC DONG

VI KET THUC TRE (LF)
ng gang A-C-E-H-I-J ?
J (6)
ES=32
EF=32
EF=23
ES=10
Final
EF=38
I (9)
5
ES=23
EF=17
Ghi ch: Ti nt 4 c :
- cng tc D kt thc sm nht ch sau 9 tun.
- cng tc E kt thc sm nht ch sau 15 tun.
Do , khi hnh sm nht (ES) ca cng tc G v cng tc H ch c th
bt u sau 15 tun.
81
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
82
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
TON KINH T
TON KINH T
Phn phi Chun N(0,1)
HM PHN
PHI CHUN
N(, )
Din tch==Pr(X>t)
0
9/19/2011
Hm mt xc sut
(XEM BNG TRA SAU)
83
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
x
84
TON KINH T
TON KINH T
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
5000
4602
4207
3821
3446
3085
2743
2420
2119
1841
1587
1357
1151
968
4960
4562
4168
3873
3409
3050
2709
2389
2090
1814
1562
1335
1131
951
4920
4522
4129
3745
3372
3015
2676
2358
2061
1788
1539
1314
1112
934
4880
4483
4090
3707
3336
2981
2643
2327
2033
1762
1515
1292
1093
918
4840
4443
4052
3669
3300
2946
2611
2296
2005
1736
1492
1271
1075
901
4801
4404
4013
3632
3264
2912
2578
2266
1977
1711
1469
1251
1056
885
4761
4364
3974
3594
3228
2877
2546
2236
1949
1685
1446
1230
1038
869
4721
4325
3936
3557
3192
2843
2514
2206
1922
1660
1423
1210
1020
853
4681
4686
3897
3520
3156
2810
2483
2217
1894
1635
1401
1190
1003
838
4641
4247
3859
3483
3121
2776
2451
2148
1867
1611
1379
1170
985
823
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
t=0.57 = p= 2843/10000
t
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
0
1
808
793
668
655
548
537
446
436
359
351
1.9 287 281
2
228
222
2.1
179
174
2.2
139
136
2.3
107
104
2.4
82
80
2.5
62
60
2.6
47
45
2.7
35
34
2.8
26
25
2.9
19
18
3
13
13
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
85
TON KINH T
HT CHNG
9/19/2011
87
2
778
643
526
427
344
274
217
170
132
102
78
59
44
33
24
18
13
3
764
630
516
418
366
268
212
166
129
99
75
57
43
32
23
17
12
4
749
618
505
409
329
262
207
162
125
96
73
55
41
31
23
16
12
5
735
606
495
401
322
256
202
158
122
94
71
54
40
30
22
16
11
6
721
594
485
392
314
250
197
154
119
91
69
52
39
29
21
15
11
7
708
582
475
384
307
244
192
150
116
89
68
51
38
28
20
15
10
8
694
571
465
375
301
239
188
146
113
87
66
49
37
27
20
14
11
9
681
559
455
367
294
233
183
143
110
84
64
48
36
26
19
14
10
86

Chuong 7-So Do Mang (CPM & PERT)

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TRNG CAO NG

Ging vin: PGS. TS. NGUYN THNG

Tl. (08) 38 640 979 - 098 99 66 719

PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng

TI LIU THAM KHO

1. Download ti liu ging ti:

PGS. Dr. Nguyn Thng

PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng

- Phng php PERT

PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng

PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng

PHNG PHP CPM

HAM MAT O XAC SUAT PHAN PHOI BETA

S kin xut pht i

PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng

PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng

Thit lp mt s mng c 2 phng

Phng php 2 : Thit lp theo s

PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng

PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng

Cong tac ao (Dummy)

PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng

d khong oi hoi sau cong tac c

Phng phap lap s o mang:

PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng

PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng

Bi tp: V s mng A-O-A cho d

Cng vic trc

Thi gian hon thnh

PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng

Bi tp: Lp s mng ca cng tc sau:

PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng

PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng

Thi im mun nht cng tc

PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng

PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng

M HNH CPM PHNG PHP XC

PGS. Dr. Nguyn Thng

c s liu xc nh ng gng cho

PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng

PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng

Thi gian k vng hon thnh cng

PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng

Bc 1 : Gii xui dng vi khi hnh sm

PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng

PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng

PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng

Thi gian can thiet hoan thanh d an

Tng t ti s kin 6, cng vic ch c

PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng

PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng

Bc 2: Gii ngc dng vi kt thc tr

PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng

PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng

KET THUC MUON

PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng

Ghi ch: Khi gii ngc dng cn

PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng

PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng

PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng

(LS-ES) T/ng gng ?

KET QUA XAC NH NG GANG T CPM

PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng