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KINH
TT
K THUT SI GN
TON
KINH
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
Khoa Kinh t & Qun tr Kinh doanh
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
TON KINH T
NI DUNG MN HC
Chng 1: Gi tr tin t theo thi gian
Chng 2: Chui dng tin & Ch tiu nh gi
Chng 3: Cc kin thc m u v phng
php ti u
Chng 4: Quy hoch tuyn tnh (QHTT)
Chng 5: Cc dng c bit pp. QHTT
Chng 6: Bi ton vn ti.
Chng 7: S mng (CPM & PERT).
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
TON KINH T
S
MNG
(CPM & PERT)
http:// www4.hcmut.edu.vn/~nguyenthong
Th mc: Bi ging
3
9/19/2011
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
S MNG
Gm c 2 phng php
- Phng php ng gng CPM
(Critical Path Method)
Phng php ny s dng m hnh
tt nh, thi gian hon thnh mi
hng mc cng vic c bn l hng
s.
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
Hm mt xc
sut bta
Xc sut xy
ra b l
1%
Xc sut xy
ra a l
1%
Thun li
a
Bt li Thi gian
hon
b
thnh
Bnh thng
m
S kin kt thc j
j
Thi gian hon thnh c/tc A
Cng tc A(t)
7
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
B (10)
B(10)
A (5)
k
9
10
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
V nguyn tc ta c th chuyn i t s
mng dng AON thnh dng AOA v ngc li.
Xem cc v d sau :
Xt cc cng tc a, b, c,.., f v k hiu cc s kin
1, 2,, 6.
a
Start
A-O-N
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
A-O-A
4
Ao
b
5
ung
a
3
b
b
oi thanh
b
Sai v a=34 va b=34
Start
e
c
11
Ao
4
12
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
V d: Lp s mng ca cng tc
sau:
3
2
4
Cng tc
A
B
C
D
E
3
4
Cng tc i trc
Khng c
Khng c
A
C
B, C
Nn
Khng nn
13
14
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
Ket qua:
Cng vic
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
E
B
Cong tac ao
A
A
B, C
B, C
D, E
15
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
Li gii
D
Bt u
Kt thc
E
B
17
16
Cng vic
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
Cng tc i trc
sau A
sau A
sau B, C
sau B, C
sau D, E
sau D, E
sau H, F
Sau G, I
18
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
CC THNG S CA S MNG
Thi im sm nht cng tc bt u
ES
ES (Earliest Start) l thi im sm nht
cng tc c th bt u.
Thi im sm nht cng tc kt thc
EF
EF (Earliest Final) l thi im sm nht
cng tc c th kt thc.
19
20
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
PHNG PHP
CPM
9/19/2011
21
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
22
V d: Xt mt d n xy dng X vi cc
hng mc cng vic v thi gian han
thnh c trnh by trong bng sau:
Cng vic
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
2
3
2
4
4
3
5
2
25 tun
24
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
Earliest Start
Time (ES)
26
A
t=2
Earliest Start B
t=3
Time (ES)
j
k
5
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
Earliest Final
Time (EF)
Gii xui
dng
5 =Max(2,5)
t=4 C
9 m
Earliest Start
Earliest Final
Time (ES)
Time (EF)
XUI DNG
A (t=2)
ES=4
Start
ES=0
F (t=3)
EF=7
H (t=2)
6
E (t=4)
B (t=3)
D (t=4)
3
EF=8
5
ES=3
27
ES=13
EF=13
End
EF=15
G (t=5)
ES=8
EF=7
28
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
ES=4
ES=2
EF=3
KHI HANH SM
KHI HNH SM
C (t=2) EF=4
EF=2
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
GHI CH
Khi gii xui dng cn ch cc im nt
c s hi t ca t nht 2 cng vic
(v d nt 5, nt 6).
Ti s kin 5, ES =8 v G ch c th bt
u sm nht khi c 2 cng vic E v D
u kt thc. Trong khi D kt thc thc
sm nht l EF=7 tun v E kt thc sm
nht l EF=8 tun, do G ch c th bt
u sm nht sau 8 tun m thi.
29
2 (ES)
B
t=2
Earliest Start t=5
7 3
Time (ES)
Earliest Final
XUI DNG
Time (EF)
KHI HANH SM
0
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
Earliest Start
Time (ES)
Earliest Final
Time (EF)
30
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
Latest Start
Time (LS)
1
Latest Final
Time (LF)
6
t=2
Latest Start
Time (LS)
B
t=4
10 3
Latest Final
Time (LF)
NG)C DO*NG
KET THUC MUON
31
32
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
LF=6
[Min(6,8)]
A
C
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
Gii ngc
dng
Ngc dng
2
LS=6
LS=8
LF=2
LS=0
A(t=2)
C (t=2) LF=4
2
KT THC TR
LS=10
F (t=3)
LF=13
LS=2
LS=4
H (t=2)
Start
E (t=4)
LS=1
B (t=3)
4
LF=4
D (t=4)
3
LF=8
5
LS=4 LF=8
LS=13
LF=13
LS=8
Gia tr t li
giai xuoi dong
34
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
XC NH NG GNG
LF
LS
Cng tc A
EF
ES
Cng tc A l gng LS = ES
(hay LF =EF)
35
LF=15
G (t=5)
33
End
36
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
Cng vic
ES
LS
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
0
0
2
3
4
4
8
13
0
1
2
4
4
10
8
13
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
C
Khng
C
Khng
C
Khng
C
C
4
F (t=3)
A (t=2)
H (t=2)
Start
E (t=4)
B (t=3)
D (t=4)
3
G (t=5)
5
37
38
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
39
40
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
NGHA CA NG GNG
Mi s mng c t nht mt
ng gng.
Tng thi gian ca tt c cc cng
tc nm trn ng gng chnh l
thi gian CAN THIET ti thiu
hon thnh d n.
41
End
42
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
EF LF
ES LS
EF LF
2
B
ES LS
ES LS
43
44
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
Bi tp (CPM): Cho d n c s
mng sau. Xac nh ng gng, thi
gian hon thnh d n.
D=7
F (t=3)
A=5
Start
D (t=7)
H (t=2)
End
E=6
B=4
1
B (t=7)
3
E (t=11)
G (t=5)
C=6
K=10
H=5
I=8
J=8
L=12
F=5
3
G=7
46
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
9/19/2011
45
M=4
47
48
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
CC NH NGHA C BN
Thi gian hon thnh 1 cng tc c
bn trong pp. PERT c m t
bng mt quy lut xc sut bta vi
3 tham s: a, b, m:
Thi gian lc quan a: (Optimistic
time): l l2 thi gian hon thnh
cng tc ny trong /k thun li.
49
50
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
NHN XT
S khc bit c bn gia phng
php CPM & phng php PERT:
ti (thi gian hon thnh cc cng
tc c bn th i) trong CPM l tt
nh.
ti dng trong PERT l theo quy lut
xc sut (
).
Xc sut xy
ra a l
1%
Thun li
a
Bnh thng
m
Bt li Thi gian
hon
b
thnh
51
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
=
2
T
[ ]
2
e
i
53
52
CC BC THC HIN CA
PHNG PHP PERT
te =
a + 4m + b
e =
6
(b a )2
6
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
Vi i ch cc cng tc trn ng
gng.
55
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
Bc 3:
C Tx c a0 tra bng
phn phi chun N(0,1) p
T T0
T
56
Tx T0
)
T
= Pr( t a o )
with t =
T T0
T
& a0 =
Tx T0
T
57
58
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
CH
T tun theo phn phi N(T0,
T) bin
i t t tun theo phn phi chun
N(0,1)
ti =
Ti T0
T
60
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
Bc 3:
Bi ton loi 2: Cho p, tnh Tx:
p = Pr(T Tx ) = Pr(
T T0
T
Tx T0
)
T
= Pr( t a o )
Tx = a 0 T + T0
61
62
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
Cng Thi hon thnh cng tc (tun) Thi gian k vng
hon thnh d
vic
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
Phng
sai V
n (tun)
/k thun /k bnh
li
thng
(a)
(m)
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
1
2
1
2
1
1
3
1
2
3
2
4
4
2
4
2
/k bt
li
(b)
3
4
3
6
7
9
11
3
a + 4m + b
6
2
GI
3
TR
2
DNG 4
4
TRONG 3
5
CPM
2
b a
6
C (t=2)
2
A (t=2)
4/36
4/36
4/36
16/36
36/36
64/36
64/36
4/36 63
25 tun
F (t=3)
H (t=2)
Start
E (t=4)
End
B (t=3)
D (t=4)
3
G (t=5)
5
64
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
GII:
a. Dng phng php gii xui vi
khi hnh sm v li gii ngc
dng vi kt thc tr trong l thuyt
ca phng php CPM
Xc nh ng gng v thi gian
hon thnh d n vi cc gi tr thi
gian k vng hon thnh cc cng
vic c bn nh trn.
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
66
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
68
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
Tun
S=15
16
T T0 16 15
) = Pr( t 0.57)
T
1.76
t tun theo phn phi chun N(0,1) , dng bng tra phn phi
70
chun N(0,1): p16 =71,56%. (xem bng tra N(0,1) cui)
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
c. Xc nh thi gian han thnh Tx d n vi xc sut 90%.
KT LUN
Xac sut hon thnh d n ni
trn t hn 16 tun l p=71,56%.
px =0,9: Xc sut
thi gian hon thnh
d n sau Tx tun
T0=15
p
Phn phi chun N
(T0=15,
T=1.76)
Tx=?
T (tun)
Tx = a 0 T + T0 = 17.25 weeks
71
72
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
p
T(tuan)
73
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
Hng dn
p14 = Pr(T 14) = Pr(
= Pr( t
17
15 tuan
74
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
Bi tp PERT
T T0 14 T0
)
T
T
14 15
) = Pr( t 0.408) = Pr( t > 0.408)
2.45
Tnh /xng hm mt
= 0.34
U x/sut chun
Xc sut e dU n hon thnh di
75
14 tun l 0.34
9/19/2011
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
76
Cng
vic
Cng tc i
trc
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
sau A
sau A
sau B, C
sau B, C
sau D, E
sau D, E
sau H, F
Sau G, I
Phng sai
Thi gian hon thnh trong /k (tun)
Thun li Binh thng Bt li Trung
(a)
(m)
(b)
4
3
2
1
2
5
8
5
6
4
5
4
4
2
4
6
10
7
8
5
12
11
6
9
12
13
24
15
16
12
bnh
6
5
4
3
5
7
12
8
9
6
V=(b-a)2/36
1,78
1,78
0,44
1,78
2,78
1,78
7,11
2,78
2,78
78
1,78
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
Start
End
B
3
GIA
GIAI XUOI DO
DONG
NG
V
VI KH
KHI HA
HANH
NH S
SM (ES)
I
5
9/19/2011
79
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
EF=6
ES=0
A (6)
Start
B (5)
EF=5
EF=9
4
G (12)
D (3)
EF=27
EF=15 ES=15
E (5)
EF=10
3
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
ES=6
ES=6
C (4)
80
H (8)
F (7)
J (6)
ES=32
EF=32
EF=23
ES=10
Final
EF=38
I (9)
5
ES=23
EF=17
Ghi ch: Ti nt 4 c :
- cng tc D kt thc sm nht ch sau 9 tun.
- cng tc E kt thc sm nht ch sau 15 tun.
Do , khi hnh sm nht (ES) ca cng tc G v cng tc H ch c th
bt u sau 15 tun.
81
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
82
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
HM PHN
PHI CHUN
N(, )
Din tch==Pr(X>t)
0
9/19/2011
Hm mt xc sut
83
x
84
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
5000
4602
4207
3821
3446
3085
2743
2420
2119
1841
1587
1357
1151
968
4960
4562
4168
3873
3409
3050
2709
2389
2090
1814
1562
1335
1131
951
4920
4522
4129
3745
3372
3015
2676
2358
2061
1788
1539
1314
1112
934
4880
4483
4090
3707
3336
2981
2643
2327
2033
1762
1515
1292
1093
918
4840
4443
4052
3669
3300
2946
2611
2296
2005
1736
1492
1271
1075
901
4801
4404
4013
3632
3264
2912
2578
2266
1977
1711
1469
1251
1056
885
4761
4364
3974
3594
3228
2877
2546
2236
1949
1685
1446
1230
1038
869
4721
4325
3936
3557
3192
2843
2514
2206
1922
1660
1423
1210
1020
853
4681
4686
3897
3520
3156
2810
2483
2217
1894
1635
1401
1190
1003
838
4641
4247
3859
3483
3121
2776
2451
2148
1867
1611
1379
1170
985
823
t=0.57 = p= 2843/10000
t
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
0
1
808
793
668
655
548
537
446
436
359
351
1.9 287 281
2
228
222
2.1
179
174
2.2
139
136
2.3
107
104
2.4
82
80
2.5
62
60
2.6
47
45
2.7
35
34
2.8
26
25
2.9
19
18
3
13
13
PGS. TS. Nguyn Thng
85
TON KINH T
Chng 6: S mng (PERT)
HT CHNG
9/19/2011
87
2
778
643
526
427
344
274
217
170
132
102
78
59
44
33
24
18
13
3
764
630
516
418
366
268
212
166
129
99
75
57
43
32
23
17
12
4
749
618
505
409
329
262
207
162
125
96
73
55
41
31
23
16
12
5
735
606
495
401
322
256
202
158
122
94
71
54
40
30
22
16
11
6
721
594
485
392
314
250
197
154
119
91
69
52
39
29
21
15
11
7
708
582
475
384
307
244
192
150
116
89
68
51
38
28
20
15
10
8
694
571
465
375
301
239
188
146
113
87
66
49
37
27
20
14
11
9
681
559
455
367
294
233
183
143
110
84
64
48
36
26
19
14
10
86