To Interpret the Earth Ten ways to be wrong Stanley A. Schumm of Barth uns, Corde Stave Univenity ingand Verney, CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS Cambridge New York Port Chester Melboume SydneyPublished by the Press Syndicate ofthe Univessiy of Cambridge “The Pit Building, Trumpington Street, Cambridge CB2 1RP. : 40 Wes 2c Street, New York, NY 10011, USA 10 Stamford Road, Oakleigh, Melbourne 3166, Austaia © Cambridge Univesity Press 1991 Firs published 1991 Printed in Great Britin a the Univesity Press, Cambridge hit Libary catalan iv plc dita Pm As Schumm, Stanley A, (Stanley Alfed) 1927 A scientific approach to earth science a Earth sciences, Methodology Lay L Tide N 550.1 Ex Di Liar of Congres stalin in publi data 2 se Schumm, Stanley Alfred M ‘A scientific approach to earth science: ten ways to be weong / Di S.A. Schumm, Me Pen. Ms Incudes index: a ISBN0521 395070 a 1. arth sciences ~ Methodology a QE40.838 1991 a 55U.28-de20 90-7675 CIP 5 Pr ISBN 0521 39: Ov harbackabridge Contents y2 RP idge Preface page vii Adkuowledgements ix 1 Todiagnose the Earth Nature of earth sciences Extrapolation 6 t Discussion 9 2. Scientific method 10 Methods 10 Differential diagnosis “4 Method in earth sciences 18 / Multiple hypotheses 19 Analogy with scenic poper 24 Criticism of the scientific method 26 Resistance to change 28 Falsfcation 29 Probability and quality of yporhesis 30 Preudowience and the sentific approach 32 Discussion 33 3. Problems of explanation and extrapolation, 8 Problems of geale and place 36 / Time 36 Space 7 Location Problems of cause and process Convergence Divergence / Efieney 66 Mulipity 70 | Problems of systems response 35 Singularity 5 Sensitivity B