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Tng quan v phng php d bo v kh nng p dng mt s m hnh trong d bo bin ng ti nguyn v mi trng ti Vit nam

D bo l mt khoa hc v ngh thut tin on nhng s vic s xy ra trong tng lai, trn c s phn tch khoa hc v cc d liu thu thp c. Khi tin hnh d bo cn cn c vo vic thu thp, x l s liu trong qu kh v hin ti xc nh xu hng vn ng ca cc hin tng trong tng lai nh vo mt s m hnh ton hc 1. Khi nim v d bo D bo l mt khoa hc v ngh thut tin on nhng s vic s xy ra trong tng lai, trn c s phn tch khoa hc v cc d liu thu thp c. Khi tin hnh d bo cn cn c vo vic thu thp, x l s liu trong qu kh v hin ti xc nh xu hng vn ng ca cc hin tng trong tng lai nh vo mt s m hnh ton hc (nh lng). Tuy nhin d bo cng c th l mt d on ch quan hoc trc gic v tng lai (nh tnh) v d bo nh tnh c chnh xc hn, ngi ta c loi tr nhng tnh ch quan ca ngi d bo. D nh ngha c s khc bit no , nhng u thng nht v c bn l d bo bn v tng lai, ni v tng lai. D bo trc ht l mt thuc tnh khng th thiu ca t duy ca con ngi, con ngi lun lun ngh n ngy mai, hng v tng lai. Trong thi i cng ngh thng tin v ton cu ha, d bo li ng vai tr quan trng hn khi nhu cu v thng tin th trng, tnh hnh pht trin ti thi im no trong tng lai cng cao. D bo c s dng trong nhiu lnh vc khc nhau, mi lnh vc c mt yu cu v d bo ring nn phng php d bo c s dng cng khc nhau. 2. c im ca d bo - Khng c cch no xc nh tng lai l g mt cch chc chn (tnh khng chnh xc ca d bo). D phng php chng ta s dng l g th lun tn ti yu t khng chc chn cho n khi thc t din ra. - Lun c im m trong cc d bo. Chng ta khng th d bo mt cch chnh xc hon ton iu g s xy ra trong tng tng lai. Hay ni cch khc, khng phi ci g cng c th d bo c nu chng ta thiu hiu bit v vn cn d bo. - D bo cung cp kt qu u vo cho cc nh hoch nh chnh sch trong vic xut cc chnh sch pht trin kinh t, x hi. Chnh sch mi s nh hng n tng lai, v th cng s nh hng n chnh xc ca d bo. 3. Cc phng php d bo C nhiu hc gi c cch phn loi phng php d bo khc nhau. Tuy nhin theo hc gi Gordon , trong 2 thp k gn y, c 8 phng php d bo c p dng rng ri trn th gii (Bng 1).

Bng 1 cp 8 phng php thng c s dng trn th gii trong d bo. Tuy nhin, theo cch phn loi ti Vit Nam cc phng php d bo thng chia thnh 2 nhm chnh l phng php nh tnh v phng php nh lng. 3.1 Phng php d bo nh tnh Phng php ny da trn c s nhn xt ca nhng yu t lin quan, da trn nhng kin v cc kh nng c lin h ca nhng yu t lin quan ny trong tng lai. Phng php nh tnh c lin quan n mc phc tp khc nhau, t vic kho st kin c tin hnh mt cch khoa hc nhn bit cc s kin tng lai hay t kin phn hi ca mt nhm i tng hng li (chu tc ng) no . 3.2 Phng php d bo nh lng M hnh d bo nh lng da trn s liu qu kh, nhng s liu ny gi s c lin quan n tng lai v c th tm thy c. Tt c cc m hnh d bo theo nh lng c th s dng thng qua chui thi gian v cc gi tr ny c quan st o lng cc giai on theo tng chui . Tuy nhin hin nay thng thng khi d bo ngi ta thng hay kt hp c phng php nh tnh v nh lng nng cao mc chnh xc ca d bo. Bn cnh , vn cn d bo i khi khng th thc hin c thng qua mt phng php d bo n l m i hi kt hp nhiu hn mt phng php nhm m t ng bn cht s vic cn d bo. 3.3. Quy trnh d bo Thng thng trong cc d bo v kinh t, quy trnh d bo c chia thnh cc bc sau. Cc bc ny bt u v kt thc vi s trao i gia ngi s dng v ngi lm d bo. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Xc nh mc tiu d bo Xc nh loi d bo Chn m hnh d bo Thu thp s liu v tin hnh d bo ng dng kt qu d bo Theo di kt qu d bo

4. p dng phng php/m hnh d bo trn th gii v Vit Nam 4.1 Tnh hnh p dng cc phng php d bo trn th gii Vic la chn phng php d bo ph thuc vo lnh vc hot ng, cc lnh vc d bo lin quan n hin tng t nhin th phng php nh lng hay c s dng nh m hnh ha, phng php kch bn, Tuy nhin ty vo tng lnh vc, ngnh m cc phng php d bo c th khc nhau. V d, chu u, cc m hnh v thay i mi trng c chia theo cc ch khc nhau nh Nng nghip; cht lng khng kh; a dng sinh hc; kh hu; nng lng; s dng t; cht thi rn;

nc, mi mt ch thng c nhiu m hnh/cng c (danh sch cc m hnh c th tham kho ti liu ). C th trong lnh vc nng lng v mi trng, chu u hin nay ang s dng mt s m hnh sau: 1. E3ME: Energy-Environment-Economy Model (http://www.camecon.com/Home.aspx). M hnh kinh t-mi trng v nng lng; 2. MESSAGE: Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact (http://www.iiasa.ac.at/). M hnh chin lc cung cp nng lng thay th v tc ng chung v mi trng. 3. GEM-E3: General Equilibrium Model for Energy-Economy-Environment e3.zew.de/)- M hnh cn bng tng cho mi trng-kinh t v nng lng. (http://www.gem-

4. CLUE-Conversion of Land Use Change and Its Effects. M hnh ny cho php m phng cc la chn chuyn i mc ch s dng t v nh hng ca s chuyn i n y. M hnh ny c 3 phin bn chnh gm phin bn CLUE-CR do Tom Veldkamp v Louise Fresco xy dng, phin bn CLUE do Peter Verburg, Kasper Kok, Free de Koning v Tom Veldkamp xy dng v phin bn CLUE -s: c xy dng bi Peter Verburg. Thng tin chi tit v m hnh ny c th xem thm ti a ch http://www.cluemodel.nl/ Hin nay trn th gii, trong lnh vc ti nguyn mi trng, nhiu m hnh ang c nghin cu v ng dng d bo tc tan bng Bc Cc, lng kh thi nh knh, thm ph thc vt trn tri t trong tng lai. Vic la chn phng php d bo ph thuc nhiu vo i tng d bo, mc ch d bo v d liu c s. 4.2 Tnh hnh cc phng php/m hnh d bo Vit nam Hin nay Vit Nam, c quan p dng nhiu phng php v cng c (m hnh) d bo l B K hoch v u t, ni c nhiu n v tham gia cng tc d bo phc v vic lp v trin khai cc hoch pht trin kinh t x hi nh Trung tm Thng tin v D bo Kinh t X hi Quc gia, Vin Nghin cu Qun l Kinh t Trung ng, Vin Chin lc pht trin, Tng cc Thng k v V Tng hp kinh t quc dn. Tuy nhin nhng c quan ny ch yu tp trung d bo v lnh vc kinh t, x hi m cha c nhiu d bo v bin ng mi trng v ti nguyn thin nhin. Bn cnh cn c cc c quan b/ngnh (Tp on in lc Vit Nam, Tp on Than-Khong sn d bo cung cu in v nhin liu,), cc Vin nghin cu (Vin Nghin cu Pht trin Thnh ph H Ch Minh, Vin Nghin cu Qun l Kinh t trung ng,), trng i hc (i hc Quc gia Thnh ph H Ch Minh, i hc Kinh t Quc dn,...) v nhiu c nhn s dng cc phng php nghin cu phc v nhu cu nghin cu ca mnh. Vit Nam hin ch yu s dng 3 phng php (trong mt phng php c th c nhiu m hnh khc nhau) d bo sau y. 1. Phng php ngoi suy Bn cht ca phng php ngoi suy l ko di quy lut hnh thnh trong qu kh lm d bo cho tng lai. Gi thit c bn ca phng php ny l s bo ton nhp iu, quan h v nhng quy lut pht trin ca i tng d bo trong qu kh cho tng lai. Thng tin cung cp cho phng php ngoi suy l s liu v ng thi ca i tng d bo trong qu kh qua mt s nm nht nh, thng thng yu cu thi khong qu kh c s liu phi ln hn nhiu ln thi khong lm d bo. Phng php ny thch hp d bo nhng i tng pht trin theo kiu tim tin. Phng php ngoi suy c u im l n gin, tuy nhin, nhc im chnh l khng tnh c nh hng ca cc yu t khch quan n kt qu d bo. 2. Phng php chuyn gia Bn cht ca phng php chuyn gia l ly kin nh gi ca cc chuyn gia lm kt qu d bo. Phng php ny c trin khai theo mt quy trnh cht ch bao gm nhiu khu: thnh lp nhm chuyn gia, nh gi nng lc chuyn gia, lp biu cu hi v x l ton hc kt qu thu c t kin chuyn gia. Kh khn ca phng php ny l vic tuyn chn v nh gi kh nng ca cc chuyn gia. Phng php ny c p dng c hiu qu cho nhng i tng thiu (hoc cha ) s liu thng k, pht trin c bt n ln hoc i tng ca d bo phc tp khng c s liu nn. Kt qu ca phng php d bo ny ch yu phc v cho nhu cu nh hng, qun l v th cn kt

hp (trong trng hp c th) vi cc phng php nh lng khc. 3. Phng php m hnh ho Bn cht ca phng php ny l k tha hai phng php ni trn. Cch thc tip cn ca phng php ny l dng h thc ton hc m t mi lin h gia i tng d bo vi cc yu t c lin quan. Kh khn ca phng php ny l phi vit c chnh xc h thc ton hc ni trn. Phng php m hnh ho p dng cho nghin cu kinh t, ti nguyn-mi trng s phi s dng nhiu phng trnh ca m hnh kinh t lng v i tng d bo (mi lin h gia hot ng kinh t v cht lng mi trng, s dng ti nguyn) c lin quan n nhiu yu t kinh t v d GDP, gi c, Phng php ny yu cu s liu ca nhiu yu t hu quan trong qu kh trong khi , phng php ngoi suy ch yu cu mt loi s liu. Tuy nhin, phng php ny cng c u im, l c th gii thch c kt qu d bo v c th phn tch nh hng ca cc yu t lin quan n kt qu d bo. Hin ti nhiu nc c phn mm d bo ny, tuy nhin, khi p dng cho Vit Nam th cn phi hiu chnh mt t thng s cho ph hp. c bit l m hnh d bo kinh t v m, cn xem xt yu t th ch v tnh m ca th trng, nn sn xut v dng d liu hin c. Hin Vit Nam, cc m hnh d bo trong lnh vc ti nguyn v mi trng cha nhiu. Mi lnh vc c th u p dng nhng cng c/m hnh ring, p ng nhng yu cu c th, nhng m hnh ny ch yu ch p dng cho chuyn mn su. V d, trong lnh vc thy vn d bo l, m hnh MARINE ca Php, m hnh Mike11 (ca an Mch), m hnh SSARR, m hnh TANK, c s dng, trong d bo thi tit th s dng cc m hnh v d bo thi tit,... Trong lnh vc qun l ti nguyn v mi trng, c mt s m hnh d bo c p dng trong nghin cu chnh sch, quy hoch pht trin nh: - VS, TS Nguyn Trn Dng, GS.TSKH. Nguyn Quang Thi, TSKH. Trn Trng Khu, Bi Trinh s dng m hnh I-O mi trng (i) nh gi nh lng gia tng trng kinh t v bin ng mi trng; (ii) c th ha mi tng quan gia tng trng kinh t vi lng pht thi ca vng kinh t trng im pha Nam. Cc tc gi Bui Trinh, Francisco T. Secretario, Kim Kwangmun, Le Ha Thanh v Pham Huong Giang s dng m hnh I-O phn tch tc ng mi trng-kinh t phn tch mc pht thi ca mt s kh nh knh, nc thi ca tng ngnh, tng khu vc khc nhau. - Trong nghin cu d bo l nhiu ni s dng m hnh MARINE ca Php, m hnh Mike11 (ca Vin Thy lc, an Mch), m hnh SSARR, m hnh TANK v m hnh HYDROGIS do Vin Kh tng Thy vn (Nay l Vin Khoa hc Kh tng Thy vn v Mi trng) xy dng cho h thng sng Hng v sng Thi Bnh d bo l. Cc m hnh ny s dng phng php nh lng vi nhiu cng thc ton hc. - M hnh kinh t lng v m (VN-MACRO) ti Trung tm Thng tin v D bo Kinh t X hi Quc gia c xy dng nh gi tc ng ca chnh sch v m v mi trng bn ngoi cng nh d bo ngn hn v trung hn. 5. Khuyn ngh p dng D bo v bin ng cung cu ti nguyn, bin ng v cht lng mi trng hin nay rt cn thit. Tuy nhin, trong iu kin thng tin, s liu, trang thit b v ngun nhn lc hin nay, cn tp trung nghin cu v p dng mt s phng php/m hnh sau y. 1. p dng M hnh I-O mi trng (Input-Output Environment models) d bo mc tng trng GDP v t l x thi ra mi trng t c cc chnh sch khuyn khch hoc bt buc s dng cc gii php gim thiu cht thi i vi tng lnh vc c th. V d, nu m hnh d bo nm 2020 mc x thi ca ton x hi vt kh nng x l v lu tr ca mi trng th cn c cc cng c gim mc x thi. p dng m hnh ny hiu qu, cn c cc s liu v pht thi ca cc ngnh kinh t, loi hnh sn xut. Yu cu t ra l phi kim k c lng pht thi cho mt loi hoc nhm sn phm t bit c lng pht thi ca ngnh sn xut (v d, sn xut 1 i giy cn bao nhiu lt nc u vo, bao nhiu nc thi, kh thi, rc thi,). T s liu c th tnh ton c mi lin h gia gia tng (hoc gim) trong sn xut v mc x thi ra mi trng

trong tng lai (nguy suy xu hng). Chng ta cng c th s dng m hnh I -O d bo mc tiu th ti nguyn ca nn kinh t trong mt thi im no . Mun s dng m hnh ny cn phi c s liu (s liu nhiu nm s dng php ton ngoi suy xu hng) v tng trng kinh t, lng nguyn liu u vo, sn phm u ra, mc x thi ca c nn kinh t, tng lnh vc sn xut, 2. Nghin cu, sa i m hnh MESSAGE c th p dng cho trng hp Vit Nam trong vic d bo cc tc ng mi trng ca cc chin lc nng lng thay th. Kt qu ca m hnh l c s a ra cc chnh sch qun l mi trng ph hp v thng khi nhng tc ng mi trng xy ra th cc bin php khc phc rt tn km v kh o ngc c nhng tc ng mi trng . V d, vic bin i i kh hu c xem l hu qu ca vic pht thi kh nh knh trong qu kh v hin nay c th gii ang n lc gim bt lng kh thi nhng iu khng h d dng v tc ng ca bin i kh hu ton cu ngy cng r rng hn. M hnh ny c p dng chu u (gm cc nc thuc lin minh chu u khi cha m rng). 3. S dng mt s m hnh v chuyn i mc ch s dng t (m hnh CLUE, m hnh LLN ca chu u) trong nghin cu bin ng s dng t v nh hng ca vic chuyn i mc ch s dng t n mi trng, h sinh thi v cnh quan chung. Tuy nhin s dng nhng m hnh ny trong vic d bo cn phi s dng nhiu d liu khng gian (bn hnh chnh, bn quy hoch, s liu thuc tnh), s liu v dn s, quy hoch lnh th, 4. p dng phng php chuyn gia (delphi) c xt n mi trng x hi v th ch ca Vit Na m: Phng php nh tnh ny ph hp vi iu kin hin nay ca Vit Nam khi thiu d liu v hin trng ti nguyn v mi trng, phng php ny c th p dng v mang li kt qu ng tin cy nu c thc hin ng, cc bc. c bit phng php ny ph hp cho vic xc nh cc mc tiu pht trin ngnh trong giai on (2011-2020) v hn ai ht nhng chuyn gia, ngi ng u cc lnh vc hiu lnh vc h quan tm, qun l s nh th no trong 5 -10 nm ti. Tt nhin phng php ny c hiu qu vic chn nhm chuyn gia, xy dng bng hi c vai tr tin quyt. Hin nay d phng php ny p dng nhiu Vit Nam nhng quy trnh thc hin thng khng thng nht v cc bc (Hnh 1) khng thc hin mt cch y . 5. S dng kt hp nhiu hn mt phng php c th mang li kt qu ng tin cy hn, tuy nhin d l phng php no cng cn tham vn chuyn gia, nh qun l v ngi s dng kt qu d bo nng cao tnh hu dng ca qu trnh d bo. Trong nhng phng php/m hnh nu trn vi iu kin ca Vin Chin lc, Chnh sch ti nguyn v mi trng hin nay, nn tp trung nghin cu v p dng cch tip cn cp khuyn ngh s 1, 2, 3 v phng php s 4. p dng cc phng php/m hnh trong d bo c hiu qu nn bt u t cc m hnh thng dng (M hnh I-O mi trng), c nhiu ngi s dng trc khi s dng cc m hnh phc tp. Bn cnh vic c thm chuyn gia v m hnh cn bng tng qut (GEM-General Equilibrium Model) v chuyn gia v h thng thng tin a l (GIS-Geographical Information System) l cn thit phi hp vi cn b chuyn mn v kinh t, qun l ti nguyn v mi trng trong vic thit k, xy dng v chy m hnh phc v mc ch d bo bin ng cung cu ti nguyn, bin ng cht lng mi trng. Lnh vc ti nguyn c th d bo trc ht cn tp trung vo ti nguyn t (bin ng nhu cu s dng, chuyn i mc ch s dng, cht lng t,); ti nguyn nc (bin ng nhu cu nc sinh hot, nng nghip, cng nghip, giao thng, cht lng nc mt, nc ngm,). Mt yu cu khc trc khi thc hin vic thit k v xy dng m hnh phc v cng tc d bo l s liu v thng tin u vo. V d, lnh vc ti nguyn nc, phi c thng tin v lng nc v phn b (theo khng gian, thi gian) cc ngun nc, mc nc tiu thu bnh qun ngi/nm (nc sinh hot), lng nc s dng ca tng ngnh sn xut/sn phm/nm, s liu v quy hoch pht trin ca tng ngnh (k c v cng ngh, quy m sn xut,), tc th ha,... c th chy m hnh d bo bin ng nhu cu s dng nc trong tng lai. Ti liu tham kho 1. Nguyn Vn Phc. Cc phng php d bo kinh t v kh nng p dng cho thnh ph H Ch Minh. Vin Nghin cu Pht trin Thnh ph H Ch Minh. (http://www.hids.hochiminhcity.gov.vn).

2. L Xun Phng (2004). ng dng phng php chuyn gia d bo trong lnh vc Bu chnh Vin thng. Tp ch Cng ngh Thng tin v Truyn thng 3. Nguyn Th Thanh Huyn v nnk (2009). Bi gii phn tch v d bo kinh t. Trng i hc Thi Nguyn 4. World Bank (2009). Energy demand models for policy formulation-A comparative study of Energy Demand Models. Policy Research Working Paper-4866. 5. L Vn Dy (2008). M hnh d bo ngn hn. Thng tin Khoa hc Thn g k-Vin Khoa hc Thng k. 6. Bi B Cc, Bi Trinh v Dng Mnh Hng (2004). Phng php phn tch Kinh t v Mi trng thng qua m hnh I-O. Nh xut bn thng k. 7. Robert T. CLEMEN (1989). Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography. International Journal of Forecasting 5. Page 559-583. 8. Bui Trinh, K.Kim, F.Secretario (2005). Economic Environmental Impact Analysis Based on a Biregion Interregional I-O Model for Vietnam, presented at 15th IO conference of IIOA at Beijing, 2005. 9. Chng trnh o to Kinh t Fulbright (1998). K thut d bo v m hnh kinh t lng i vi ngnh nng lng. Bi c, tp 1. ThS. Nguyn S Linh