B GIO DC V O TO

TRNG I HC KINH T TP. HCM

---------------------

L Phc Hip

THM NH D N
KHU CHUNG C VN PHNG CHO THU
BNH HA

LUN VN THC S KINH T

TP. H Ch Minh Nm 2010

B GIO DC V O TO
TRNG I HC KINH T TP. HCM
--------------------CHNG TRNH GING DY KINH T FULBRIGHT

L Phc Hip

THM NH D N
KHU CHUNG C VN PHNG CHO THU
BNH HA
Chuyn ngnh: Chnh sch cng
M s:
603114

LUN VN THC S KINH T

NGI HNG DN KHOA HC: TS. CAO HO THI

TP. H Ch Minh Nm 2010

Li cam oan
Ti xin cam oan lun vn ny hon ton do ti thc hin. Cc on trch dn v s liu s
dng trong lun vn u c dn ngun v c chnh xc cao nht trong phm vi hiu
bit ca ti.
Lun vn ny khng nht thit phn nh quan im ca Trng i hc Kinh t thnh ph
H Ch Minh hay Chng trnh ging dy kinh t Fulbright.
K tn

L Phc Hip

ii

Li cm n

Trc ht ti chn thnh cm n Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright (FETP) vi s

ti tr ton b hc ph trong sut kha hc v tin sinh hot ph trong nm th nht ti
c iu kin theo hc chng trnh Chnh sch cng ti TP. HCM.

Trong qu trnh thc hin lun vn Thm nh d n: Khu chung c, vn phng cho thu
Bnh Ha, ti chn thnh cm n s hng dn tn tnh ca Tin s Cao Ho Thi. Nu
khng c s hng dn mt cch tn tnh v khoa hc v cung cp cc ti liu lin quan
n ti t pha thy, chc chn lun vn s khng hon thnh.

Ti gi li cm n ti cc thy, cc c trong b mn Thm nh ti chnh, FETP, ngoi

vic cung cp kin thc, cc thy, cc c sn sng trao i lun vn hon thin, ng
thi cm n s chia s, trao i v gp vi cc thnh vin trong nhm ti chnh- thm
nh d n ca lp Cao hc Chnh sch cng, kha I.

Ti chn thnh cm n VBH v TECCO to iu kin v gip ti trong sut qu

trnh thc hin lun vn.

Cui cng, ti lun by t li cm n i vi gia nh ti, c bit l ngi v ca ti,

ngi m hng ngy nhc nh, ng vin ti phi thc hin tt lun vn tt nghip.

L Phc Hip

iii

TM TT LUN VN
Chnh sch di di cc doanh nghip gy nhim mi trng trong ni thnh vo tp trung
ti cc khu cng nghip, khu ch xut v vng ph cn (2002- 2006) v k hoch x l
trit cc c s gy nhim mi trng nghim trng ca Chnh ph buc Cng ty c
phn in t Bnh Ha (VBH) phi di ri hot ng ca mnh v c s 2 ti ng Nai,
mc d cng ty ang c quyn s dng t di hn n nm 2020 theo hp ng ca Bnh
Ha vi nh nc. Tuy nhin, chng trnh ny a ra chnh sch u tin dnh cho doanh
nghip, nu doanh nghip c d n kh thi chuyn i mc ch s dng t th nh
nc s cho php doanh nghip mua t, thng qua Ban ch o sp xp li, x l nh, t
(Ban ch o 09).
Nhn thy nhu cu v nh v nhu cu cn thu vn phng, khu thng mi ang gia tng,
ng thi khu t ang thu c gi tr thng mi ln nn VBH v TECCO (Cng ty C
phn u t xy dng v ng dng cng ngh mi, c ng ca VBH) tnh ton phng
n u t vo xy dng khu chung c, vn phng cho thu, gi l d n xy dng khu
chung c, vn phng cho thu. D n xy dng 7 khi nh cao tng (3 khi 15 tng, 1 khi
18 tng v 3 khi 20 tng), h bi, trng hc, tng hm, cng vin cy xanh v ng ni
b. Din tch khu t lm d n l 24.418.5m2, a im d n ti khu t m VBH ang
thu 204 N Trang Long, phng 12, qun Bnh Thnh.
Mun vy, VBH cn lp bo co nh gi tnh kh thi v mt ti chnh nhm m bo cho
vic chuyn i mc ch s dng t u t xy dng chung c, vn phng cho thu l
hiu qu, ng thi chng minh tnh kh thi v mt kinh t - x hi nh nc cp php
u t.
Kt qu thm nh ti chnh trn 3 phng n kinh doanh ca VBH cho thy c 3 phng
n u kh thi v mt ti chnh, nhng phng n 3 l phng n tt nht nu so snh v
cc tiu ch thm nh NPV, IRR, B/C, DSCR v PP i vi cc phng n cn li. Theo
, VBH s t qun l tng hm, cho thu 2 tng ca tt c 7 khi, cho mc ch lm vn
phng, khu thng mi, ng thi bn ton b cn h t tng 3 tr ln ca tt c cc khi
nh.

iv

Phn tch mc ri ro v mt ti chnh ca d n (theo phng n 3) i vi s thay i

gi bn cn h, tc tng gi cn h, gi cho thu vn phng, chi ph xy dng v lm
pht cho thy d n c mc ri ro rt thp. Gi bn cn h v tc tng gi cn h v
lm pht khng lm thay i quyt nh u t. Xc sut gi cho thu vn phng gim
ti mc 1,9 usd/thng/m2, chi ph xy dng gia tng n mc 127% lm cho NPV < 0 v
IRR < MARR gn nh khng xy ra trong thc t. Cho d nh nc nh gi t theo gi
nh nc hay gi th trng th mc ri ro vn thp v d n vn ng VBH thc
hin.
Kt qu thm nh trn phng din nn kinh t ni chung cho thy, d n s to ra ngoi
tc tch cc i vi tng th nn kinh t v to ra mc thu ngn sch 817,04 t ng cho
nh nc, y l khon thu chnh lch gia khon thu trc v sau khi chuyn i mc
ch s dng t. Trc khi c d n, nh nc ch thu c mt khon tin duy nht l
tin cho thu t. Sau khi c d n, ngoi khon thu v t bao gm tin mua quyn s
dng t v ph chuyn chuyn nhng th nh nc cn thu c cc khon thu t hot
ng kinh doanh ca d n. Khon chnh lch ny ln hn so vi khon mt i 716,8 t
nu nh nc u thu quyn s dng t theo gi th trng. C doanh nghip v nh
nc u c li nu doanh nghip chuyn i mc ch s dng t, nh nc li ng
bng khon chnh lch thu ngn sch 817,04 t v doanh nghip li hn 1010 t tin li t
vic thc hin d n.
D n kh thi v mt ti chnh v kinh t nn nh nc khng phi h tr. Nhng nu nh
nc khng tnh gi t theo gi th trng th thc cht nh nc h tr doanh nghip
716,8 t. Lun vn khng nh, khon thu 716,8 chuyn t nh nc sang doanh nghip
nh mt khon tr cp v kin ngh cn thay i chnh sch i vi tt c cc doanh
nghip ang c nh chuyn mc ch s dng t sang xy dng chung c, vn phng
cho thu l cn tnh gi t theo gi th trng, bng hnh thc u gi. V nu t c
nh gi theo gi th trng th doanh nghip vn sn lng chuyn i mc ch s dng.
Trong qu trnh thc hin d n s sinh ra cc ngoi tc tiu cc v mi trng v giao
thng, nh nc c th gim st qu trnh ny hn ch ngoi tc tiu cc.

MC LC
Trang ph ba
Xc nhn ca n v u t

Li cam oan.i
Li cm n....ii
Tm tt lun vn......ii
Mc lc .....v
Danh mc ch vit tt ...vii
Danh mc biu ..viii
Ph lc bng....ix
0

Chng 1. GII THIU ..................................................................................................... 1

61

1.1 t vn ....................................................................................................................... 1
62

1.2 Mc tiu ca ti......................................................................................................... 3

63

1.3 Cu hi nghin cu........................................................................................................ 3

64

1.4 Phm vi ca ti.......................................................................................................... 3

65

1.5 B cc lun vn .............................................................................................................. 4

66

Chng 2. C S L THUYT........................................................................................ 6
67

2.1 Cc quan im v ni dung phn tch d n .............................................................. 6

68

2.2 Cc phng php s dng trong phn tch ti chnh................................................. 7

69

2.3 Cc phng php s dng trong phn tch kinh t.................................................... 8

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

70

Chng 3. M T D N............................................................................................... 10
71

3.1 Gii thiu d n ........................................................................................................... 10

72

3.2 c im ca d n ..................................................................................................... 11
73

3.3 Gii php kin trc v tiu chun xy dng............................................................. 12

74

3.4 S liu tnh ton lin quan n ni dung phn tch d n ....................................... 13
75

Chng 4. PHN TCH TI CHNH D N ............................................................... 18

76

4.1 Gii thiu cc phng n phn tch........................................................................... 18

77

4.2 Biu dng tin t ..................................................................................................... 21

78

4.2.1 Chi ph u t ............................................................................................................. 21

79

vi

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

4.2.2 Chi ph vn hnh......................................................................................................... 23

80

4.2.3 Doanh thu ca d n................................................................................................... 23

81

4.2.4 K hoch vay vn v tr li ........................................................................................ 23

82

4.2.5 Lch khu hao ............................................................................................................. 24

83

4.2.6 Bo co thu nhp ........................................................................................................ 25

84

4.2.7 Biu dng tin t.................................................................................................... 25

85

4.3 Tnh ton phn tch ti chnh ..................................................................................... 26

86

4.4 Phn tch kt qu thm nh ...................................................................................... 28

87

Chng 5. PHN TCH RI RO .................................................................................... 30

88

5.1 Xc nh bin ri ro .................................................................................................... 30

89

5.2 M hnh kt qu........................................................................................................... 31

90

5.3 Kt lun v mc ri ro ........................................................................................... 40

91

Chng 6. PHN TCH KINH T - X HI................................................................ 41

92

6.1 Phn tch kinh t.......................................................................................................... 41

93

6.1.1 Phn tch h s chuyn i gi ti chnh sang gi kinh t .......................................... 41

94

6.1.2 Phn tch ngoi tc tch cc v tiu cc ..................................................................... 42

95

6.1.3 Dng tin kinh t d n .............................................................................................. 43

96

6.2 Phn tch tc ng ngn sch ..................................................................................... 44

97

6.3 Phn tch tc ng phn phi. .................................................................................... 45

98

Chng 7. KT LUN V KIN NGH........................................................................ 47

99

Ti liu tham kho..47

Ph lc.....49

vii

Danh sch ch vit tt:

B/C

Phng php t s li ch/chi ph (Benefit/Cost)

CBRE

Cng ty T vn Bt ng sn CBRE

Dothi J.S.C

Cng ty C phn thit k xy dng th

DSCR

H s An ton tr n (Debt Service Coverage Ratio)

EIU

Economist Intelligence Unit (T chc nghin cu trin vng kinh t)

VBH

Cng ty C phn in t Bnh Ha

IRR

Sut sinh li ni ti (Internal Rate of Return)

MARR

Sut sinh li ti thiu ca c ng (Minimum Attractive Rate of Return)

NPV

Gi tr hin ti rng (Net Present Value)

PCI

Ch s gi tiu dng (Consumer Price Index)

TECCO

Cng ty C phn u t xy dng v ng dng cng ngh mi

TP. HCM

Thnh ph H Ch Minh

UBND

y ban Nhn dn

VAT

Thu gi tr gia tng (Value Added Tax)

WACC

Chi ph vn bnh qun trng s (Weighted Average Cost of Capital)

viii

Danh sch biu

Biu 5.1 Gi bn cn h v NPV ch u t.

Biu 5.2 Gi bn cn h v NPV ch u t
Biu 5.3 Tc tng/gim gi bn cn h thc v NPV
Biu 5.4 Gi cho thu vn phng v NPV
Biu 5.5 Mc tng gi xy dng n NPV ch u t
Biu 5.6 Lm pht Vit nam v NPV ch s hu

ix

PH LC BNG

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

Bng 3.1 Thit k c bn.................................................................................................... 11

1 00

Bng 3.2 Phn loi mc ch s dng t trong d n....................................................... 12

1 01

Bng 3.3 Bin ng gi 3 thng u nm 2010, d bo PCI xy dng thng 10/2010...... 15

1 02

Bng 3.4 H s iu chnh khi xy dng tng hm............................................................ 16

1 03

Bng 4.1 Din tch sn cn h c bn ra hng nm ....................................................... 20

1 04

Bng 4.2 S lng xe my v t gi ti tng hm .......................................................... 20

1 05

Bng 4.3 Lch chi ph u t (n v tnh: t ng) ........................................................... 22

1 06

Bng 4.4 H s tnh gi t hm.................................................................................... 22

1 07

Bng 4.5 K hoch vay vn (t ng)................................................................................ 24

1 08

Bng 4.6 So snh cc phng n u t............................................................................. 27

1 09

Bng 5.1 S thay i ca gi bn cn h n IRR v NPV (gi t nh nc) ................. 31

1 10

Bng 5.2 S thay i ca gi bn cn h n IRR v NPV (gi t th trng)................ 33

1 11

Bng 5.3 Tc tng/gim gi bn thc nh hng n quyt nh u t...................... 34

1 12

Bng 5.4 S thay i ca gi thu vn phng nh hng n quyt nh u t .............. 35

1 13

Bng 5.5 Chi ph xy dng nh hng n quyt nh u t ........................................... 36

1 14

Bng 5.6 ng thi gim gi cho thu v gi bn cn h v NPV ch u t .................. 39

1 15

Bng 6.1 C s tnh h s chuyn i gi CFi ................................................................... 41

1 16

Bng 6.2 NPV, IRR kinh t ca d n ............................................................................... 43

1 17

Bng 6.3 Cc khon thu v thu, ph t t trc khi c d n ......................................... 44

1 18

Bng 6.4 Cc khon thu v thu, ph t t sau khi c d n ............................................ 44

1 19

Bng 6.5 Tc ng phn phi gia chnh ph v doanh nghip ........................................ 45

1 20

Chng 1. GII THIU

0

1.1 t vn
7

Chng trnh di di cc doanh nghip gy nhim mi trng trong ni thnh vo tp

trung ti cc khu cng nghip, khu ch xut v vng ph cn (2002- 2006) v K hoch x
l trit cc c s gy nhim mi trng nghim trng ca Chnh ph ang c cc
tnh, thnh ph trin khai thc hin. Ti TP. HCM, chng trnh v k hoch trn c c
th ha bng Ngh quyt s 22/2002/NQ-H ngy 29/6/2002 ca HND v n di di
cc c s sn xut gy nhim vo cc khu cng nghip v vng ph cn [1] v Quyt
nh s 80/2002/Q-UB ngy 8/7/2002 ca UBND TP. HCM v vic ph duyt n thc
hin chng trnh di di cc c s sn xut gy nhim vo khu cng nghip v vng ph
cn [2].
Thng k u nm 2007 ti TP. HCM cho thy, 630/1402 doanh nghip (gn 45%) di
ri hot ng sn xut ca mnh ti khu/cm cng nghip, khu ch xut v vng ph cn,
463/1402 doanh nghip (33%) ngng sn xut, 127 doanh nghip (9%) chuyn i hot
ng kinh doanh, nhng vn cn 141 doanh nghip (10%) cha c phng n di ri 1.
0

Cng ty c phn in t Bnh Ha (VBH), doanh nghip nh nc chuyn i, thuc

Tng cng ty in t v Tin hc Vit Nam, c tr s ti 204 N Trang Long, phng 12,
qun Bnh Thnh, l mt trong nhng cng ty chu tc ng bi chnh sch trn.
Tuy nhin, VBH ang l php nhn c quyn s dng t (c UBND TP. HCM cp giy
chng nhn theo Quyt nh 4159/Q-UBND ngy 14/09/2006) v c hp ng thu khu
t hn 24 nghn m2 lm tr s v sn xut kinh doanh n ht nm 2020 2. Nhng d c
1

hay khng c hp ng thu t th n ht 2012, VBH vn phi di ri ton hot ng ca

mnh ra khu vc ngoi thnh tp trung vo khu/cm cng nghip hoc vng ph cn
theo Chng trnh di di cc doanh nghip gy nhim mi trng trong ni thnh theo
Quyt nh 64/2003/Q-TTg ngy 22/04/2003 ca Th tng Chnh ph. Theo , khu t
hn 24 nghn m2 vn b Ban ch o sp xp li, x l nh, t thuc s hu nh nc trn
1

http://www.thesaigontimes.vn/Home/thoisu/doisong/11839/ (truy cp vo 24/6/2010) [3]

Quyt nh 4159/Q-UBND ngy 14/09/2006 ca UBND TP. HCM v vic tip tc cho VBH s dng t
[4] v Hp ng s 9871/H-TNMT-KKKT ngy 16/10/2006, k cng S Ti nguyn Mi trng [5]
2

a bn TP.HCM (gi tt l Ban ch o 09) thu hi. Vic thu hi ny s ngay lp tc chm
dt hp ng thu t theo iu 4 (trch nhim ca mi bn) ca hp ng thu t k
gia VBH v S Ti nguyn Mi trng, p dng cho trng hp thu hi t ti iu 38
Lut t ai 2003 [6]. Hp ng thu t c trnh by ti Ph lc 2.
Nh vy, vic di ri cc hot ng sn xut ca VBH ra ngoi thnh l vic lm bt buc
theo ch trng ca nh nc cho d hot ng sn xut kinh doanh ca VBH n mt a
im khc c tt ln hay xu i, hoc VBH s phi ngng hot ng sn xut ca mnh.
khuyn khch vic di ri, chng trnh di di cc doanh nghip gy nhim mi trng
trong ni thnh vo tp trung ti cc khu cng nghip, khu ch xut v vng ph cn
a ra c ch gi t i vi cc doanh nghip ang c quyn s dng t l nu doanh
nghip c th lm ch u t hoc lin doanh vi ch u t khc thc hin d n chuyn
mc ch s dng t theo qui hoch th nh nc s u tin cho php doanh nghip
chuyn i mc ch s dng t bng hnh thc bn t theo gi nh nc khng thng
qua u thu. y l c quyn ca VBH so vi cc doanh nghip khc i vi vic tip
tc s dng khu t.
Cng nh cc doanh nghip ang u t sang lnh vc xy dng chung c, khu thng
mi, vn phng cho thu nh Cng ty Nha H ni (22 - 24 Hng Bi v 25 - 27 Hai B
Trng, qun Hon Kim, H ni), Cng ty Kho bi TP (trc thuc Tng Cng ty a c
Si Gn -Resco) hay Tp on in lc Vit nam (cho thu khu t 162 in Bin Ph,
P17, Bnh Thnh lm Khch sn L Hong), VBH tnh ton phng n lin doanh vi
Cng ty C phn u t xy dng v ng dng cng ngh mi (TECCO), mt c ng ca
VBH thc hin d n chuyn mc ch s dng t sang xy dng chung c, khu
thng mi dch v, vn phng cho thu nhm hng c quyn gi t.
l l do hnh thnh ti thm nh d n xy dng khu chung c, vn phng cho thu
Bnh Ha (gi tt l d n Bnh Ha). Tc gi l ngi c TECCO giao nhim v vit
bo co kh thi, thm nh hiu qu ti chnh v kinh t ca d n trn. Nh vy, d n
c nh gi theo gc ch u t, c phn tch li ch ca nh nc. Theo , bo co
s nh gi tnh kh thi v mt ti chnh nhm m bo cho vic chuyn i mc ch s
dng t u t xy dng chung c, vn phng cho thu l hiu qu, ng thi chng
minh tnh kh thi v mt kinh t - x hi nh nc cp php u t.

1.2 Mc tiu ca ti
8

ti c thc hin nhm mc tiu phn tch kh thi v mt ti chnh v hiu qu kinh t
ca d n Khu chung c, vn phng cho thu Bnh Ha.
1.3 Cu hi nghin cu
9

Mc tiu ca ti c c th bng 2 cu hi nghin cu sau:

- VBH c nn chuyn i mc ch s dng t u t d n Khu chung c, vn phng
cho thu Bnh Ha hay khng?
- Nh nc c nn cho php VBH chuyn i mc ch s dng t ang cho thu xy
dng khu chung c, vn phng cho thu hay khng?
1.4 Phm vi ca ti
10

Trong phn tch ti chnh, ti gii hn phm vi nghin cu mc nh gi tnh kh thi

v mt ti chnh ca ton b d n xy dng khu chung c, vn phng cho thu Bnh Ha
m khng quan tm ti vic tnh ton chi ph di ri cc hot ng sn xut, thit b, nh
xng hin c trn t n mt a im khc v chi ph cho hot ng di ri c gi nh
ng bng chi ph m nh nc ti tr, h tr cho hot ng di ri theo ch trng ca nh
nc hoc chi ph di ri ng s c nh nc ti tr bng hnh thc min gim tin s
dng t theo Ngh nh 198/2004/N-CP ngy 03 thng 12 nm 2004 ca Chnh ph v
thu tin s dng t 3. Lun vn cng s khng nh gi nhng li ch hay thit hi ca cc
2

hot ng sn xut, kinh doanh ca VBH sau khi di ri v nu khng thc hin d n th
VBH vn phi di ri cc hot ng sn xut, lp rp linh kin in t ca mnh ra khu vc
ngoi thnh hoc khu cng nghip hay khu ch xut hoc buc phi ngng hot ng sn
xut ti y.
ti cng phn tch th trng v xem xt cc m hnh d bo cung cu cn h tnh
ton mc gi bn, cho thu, tc bn v cho thu, mc tng gi bn, cho thu cn h
cng nh nh gi mc ri ro ca d n.
S liu u vo c tnh ton da thit k chi tit cng trnh c VBH ng
Cng ty C phn thit k xy dng th (Dothi J.S.C) [8] thc hin v sut vn u t
3

Khon 3 iu 13 v gim tin s dng t Gim 20% tin s dng t khi c nh nc giao t i vi
nh my, x nghip phi di di theo quy hoch; nhng din tch t c gim ti a khng vt qu din
tch ti a im phi di di [7]

xy dng cng trnh nm 2008 do B Xy dng ban hnh, nhng v gi xy dng lun bin
ng nn s c iu chnh da vo cng b ch s gi xy dng c B Xy dng cng
b hng qu tnh ton tng mc u t ti thi im quyt nh u t (1/10/2010).
D bo lm pht Vit Nam trong phn tch ti chnh c tham kho t s liu ca
Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). D bo lm pht nc ngoi c tnh ton da trn
d liu lm pht trong qu kh ca Hoa K trong 89 nm t 1921 n 2009 ly t website
http://www.forecast-chart.com/forecast-inflation-rate.html (truy cp vo 24/6/2010) [9].
Nu tnh lm pht Hoa k mt giai on gm 10 nm th lm pht trung bnh trong 10 nm
cui 2000-2009 l 2.536%, thp hn lm pht trung bnh ca tt c cc nm trc , iu
ny cho thy lm pht Hoa k c xu hng gim. Trong 10 nm cui lm pht Hoa k
gim 0.324% so vi 10 nm trc nn ti d tnh trong khong 10 nm th lm pht Hoa
k gim ng bng 0.324%.
Phn phn tch ri ro khi u t thc hin d n c thc hin i vi mt s cc yu t
chnh c tc ng n quyt nh u t gi bn cn h v gi cho thu vn phng, gi xy
lp. Phn phi xc sut c thc hin vi cc bin u vo tnh ton nh gi bn cn
h, gi cho thu vn phng nh gi chnh xc hn v nhng ri ro xy ra khi quyt
nh u t.
H s chuyn i (t s gia gi kinh t vi gi ti chnh ca mt khon mc) c s
dng phn tch kinh t d n v thng qua gi ti chnh, gi kinh t c xc nh bng
cch iu chnh cc khon thu v tr cp. H s chuyn i c phn tch c th ti
Chng 6, phn phn tch kinh t.
1.5 B cc lun vn
11

Lun vn c chia thnh 7 chng. Chng 1 gii thiu v d n v nu ln tnh cp thit

ca ti, tr li cho cu hi ti sao li cn thc hin ti. Chng 2 ni v tng quan v
phng php lun thc hin ti. Chng 3 m t d n, gii thiu tng qut v d n,
ng thi nhn mnh mt s c im, a ra phng n thc hin d n. Chng 4 s
phn tch v mt ti chnh ca d n, trong m t cc khon doanh thu, chi ph, vay n,
thu, sau xc nh cc kt qu thm nh phn tch, nh gi. Chng 5 phn tch ri
ro v mt ti chnh ca d n, trong xc nh mc , xc sut ri ro m d n c th
chu ng c. Chng 6 s phn tch v mt kinh t d n, tc l nh gi hiu qu kinh

t x hi ni chung ca d n, trong c phn tch v mt ngoi tc v tc ng ngn

sch a ra kt lun tnh kh thi v mt kinh t ca d n. Chng 7 s a ra cc kt
lun v kin ngh cho d n, tr li cho cu hi d n c ng thc hin hay khng, nu
thc hin th phi hn ch nhng ri ro no v cc i tng trc tip tham gia d n s
cn lu nhng g khi thc hin d n.

Tm li, thc hin xy dng khu chung c, vn phng cho thu l phng n cn thit
VBH chuyn i mc ch s dng t, theo c quyn ca php nhn ang c quyn s
dng t. Nhng trc ht VBH cn thm nh v mt ti chnh v kinh t ca d n
u t v c nh nc thng qua. ti ch quan tm ti vic thm nh d n m
khng quan tm n cc hot ng kinh doanh hin ti hay khu t VBH s phi chuyn
n. ti c vit di dng Chng mc, bao gm 7 chng, trong trng tm nm
chng 4, 5 v 6.

Chng 2. C S L THUYT
1

Chng 2 ni v cc c s l thuyt v phng php c s dng thc hin vic phn

tch, nh gi i d n xy dng khu chung c vn phng cho thu Bnh Ha.

2.1 Cc quan im v ni dung phn tch d n

12

Sau khi nhn ra c hi u t ti VBH, TECCO tin hnh nghin cu tin kh thi i vi
d n Bnh Ha. V nghin cu tin kh thi cng l mt th tc bt buc nhn c giy
php u t xy dng t pha chnh quyn nn TECCO tin hnh cc phn tch th trng,
k thut, ngun lc v nhn s, phn tch ti chnh, nh gi ri ro v phn tch kinh t i
vi d n. Tc gi thc hin lun vn l ngi c TECCO giao nhim v trc tip thm
nh d n. V y l d n lin doanh, c vay n v lin quan trc tip ti vic qun l
cng sn hin nay nn d n s c nhn nhn, phn tch t cc quan im ca tng u
t v quan im ca ngn hng, quan im ch u t (quan im c ng), quan im ca
nn kinh t ni chung v quan im ca ngn sch.
Quan im tng u t xem xt d n v mt tng th, bao gm c vic vay n v gp
vn u t, ti tr cho d n.
Quan im ca ngn hng nh gi mc an ton ca vic vay n bng cch xem xt
dng ngn lu chi ph u t v vn hnh, bo tr ca d n v dng ngn lu tnh ton
doanh thu xc nh nhu cu vay vn v kh nng tr n ca d n.
Quan im ch u t (quan im c ng) xem xt gi tr thu nhp tim nng ca d
n. Quan im ch u t ng thi cng tnh ton cc khon vn vay v li vay vo
dng ngn lu ra tnh ton thu nhp cn li cho c ng [10].
Quan im ca nn kinh t ni chung tc l phn tch, tnh ton li ch, thit hi khi
thc hin d n trn ton quc gia, phn tch nhng ngoi tc khi thc hin d n.
Quan im ca ngn sch xem d n c th to ra (hoc tiu tn) ngun ngn sch cho
chnh ph, tc l phn tch nhng dng tin v thu v tr cp m nh nc thu li hoc
phi chi ra.

2.2 Cc phng php s dng trong phn tch ti chnh

13

nh gi xem d n c ng cc doanh nghip u t hay khng, tc gi s dng

phng php tnh ton dng tin chit gim tnh gi tr hin ti rng (NPV), phng
php tnh sut sinh li ni ti (IRR) v phng php t s li ch- chi ph (B/C), xem xt h
s an ton tr n (DSCR) v phng php tnh thi gian hon vn (PP - Payback Period)
C th, phng php tnh ton nh sau:
NPV: Gi tr hin ti ca cc dng tin sau khi tr i chi ph u t.
n

Bi Ci

(1 + r )
i =0

[11] v [12]

Bi: Li ch d n
Ci: Chi ph d n
r: Sut chit khu.
Tiu chun nh gi: D n kh thi khi NPV 0
NPV l tiu chun nh gi dng tin to ra mc tuyt i ca d n v ca doanh
nghip. NPV tnh n chi ph c hi ca vn ca ngi u t. NPV c tnh cho tng
i tng v mi i tng c sut chit khu khc nhau. Tuy NPV khng quan tm ti
quy m v thi gian hon vn, nhng y l tiu ch quyt nh n vic la chn cc
phng n phn tch.
IRR: Sut chit khu NPV= 0.
n

Bi Ci

(1 + r )
i =0

=0

Bi: Li ch d n
Ci: Chi ph d n
Tiu chun nh gi: D n kh thi khi IRR MARR
IRR l ch tiu so snh vi sut sinh li yu cu ti thiu ca nh u t (MARR),
nhng MARR li l mt yu t bin ng theo thi gian v ph thuc vo th trng, nn

i vi mt d n di hn nh Bnh Ha th IRR c dng nh phng php h tr,

khng nh tnh kh thi hay khng kh thi ca d n.
T s li ch/chi ph (B/C) [12]
B/C = Gi tr hin ti ca tng li ch / Gi tr hin ti ca tng chi ph
Tiu chun nh gi: D n kh thi khi B/C > 1
Phng php tnh B/C l kh r rng nhng li ph thuc vo t sut chit khu tnh
ton gi tr hin ti (NPV) ca dng tin.
H s an ton tr n (DSCR).
DSCR ti thi im i = Tng s tin mt s dng tr n vo thi im i / Tng s n
60

phi tr vo thi im i
Tiu chun nh gi: DSCR 1 (i vi ch u t)
DSCR 1.2 (i vi ngn hng)
DSCR cho bit kh nng huy ng tin mt tr n ti mt thi im, nhng ch trong
phm vi ca d n m khng tnh ton c kh nng huy ng tin mt t cc d n khc.
Thc t, mt doanh nghip c th huy ng tin mt t nhiu ngun khc nhau, t cc d
n khc nhau thanh ton n.
Thi gian hon vn (PP - Payback Period)
PP = (Vn u t)/(Thu nhp rng hng nm) = (nm, thng)
Tiu chun nh gi: PP < 5 nm, 6 thng (V MARR = 18%, PP = 1/18*100% = 5.6).
PP c u im l tnh ton n gin v d thuyt phc c ng, nhng PP li b qua nhng
nhng khon u t pht sinh sau khi thi im tnh ton nm hon vn. PP cng khng
quan tm n gi tr hin ti ca dng tin.
2.3 Cc phng php s dng trong phn tch kinh t
14

Mc d khng th lng ha c ton b nhng ngoi tc hoc tnh ton chnh xc cc

li ch chi ph ca d n i vi nn kinh t, khi xem xt d n trn quan im ca nn
kinh t ni chung, lun vn s s dng phng php chuyn i gi CFi bng cch iu
chnh cc khon thu v tr cp trong kt qu thm nh v ti chnh chuyn i sang

gi kinh t, sau tnh ton cc ch s NPV, IRR, B/C v a ra kt lun tnh kh thi v
mt kinh t ca d n.

Tm li, d n Bnh Ha s c thm nh bi cc tiu ch NPV, IRR, B/C, DSCR, PP

i vi phn tch ti chnh v kinh t bng quan im ca tng u t, ch u t, quan
im ca nn kinh t ni chung v quan im ca ngn sch, t a ra kt lun v tnh
kh thi hay khng kh thi ca d n.

10

Chng 3. M T D N
2

Chng 3 m t tng qut v nhn mnh mt s c im ca d n, ng thi a ra

phng n thc hin d n v mt thit k, kin trc, xy dng. Chng ny cng a ra
cc thng s u mc tng qut phc v cho mc ch phn tch ti chnh v kinh
t ca d n.
3.1 Gii thiu d n
15

Cng ty C phn in t Bnh Ha 4 (VBH) c chuyn i t Cng ty TNHH 1 thnh

3

vin in t Bnh Ha theo Quyt nh s 2554/Q-TCCB ngy 08/8/2005 ca B trng

B Cng nghip (nay l B Cng thng) c nh nc cho thu khu t 24418,5m2,
mc ch ca vic s dng t l lm vn phng, kho v xng sn xut thit b in t,
thi gian thu t ko di n nm ht nm 2020. Nhng VBH thuc din phi di ri hot
ng sn xut ca mnh theo chnh sch di ri cc c s sn xut cng nghip ra khi khu
vc ni thnh, khu t m VBH ang thu s b c nh nc thu hi.
Khu t m VBH ang thu rt c li th v v tr a l v nm trong khu vc ni thnh,
c c s h tng tt v giao thng thun tin, 2 mt tin l ng N Trang Long v ng
Chu Vn An, gn khu vc qun 1 v cch Sn bay quc t Tn sn nht 6km, bn xe Min
ng cha n 4 km. Hin ti khu t c cp in, cp nc v c h thng thot
nc. Ti sn cn li trn t khng ln, bao gm nhng dy nh mi tn, nh xng, nh
kho khung ko st, ng, sn ni b, theo nh gi thi im 2005 l 3,8 t ng, do cng
ty ang s dng cc cng trnh bn kin c.
Tc t tc vng, VBH mong mun c tip tc s dng t. Theo chnh sch ca
chng trnh di ri cc doanh nghip gy nhim mi trng trong ni thnh vo tp
trung ti cc khu cng nghip, khu ch xut v vng ph cn th iu kin cn VBH tip
tc l php nhn c quyn s dng t l (i) VBH c mt d n kh thi chuyn i mc
ch s dng t theo ng quy hoch ca qun c ph duyt vo trc 2012 (ii) VBH
cn m bo din tch dnh cho hot ng gio dc ti thiu l 6500 m2 trn khu t theo
kin ca UBND qun Bnh Thnh ti vn bn s 49/UBND-QLT ngy 13/01/2009 [14].
Khi VBH p ng 2 iu kin trn th nh nc cho php VBH c mua li khu t theo
4

i din vn nh nc 51% [13]

11

gi nh nc ban hnh, khng thng qua u thu. V vy, VBH tnh ton phng n xy
dng d n Bnh Ha mong mun hng li t chnh sch u tin chuyn i t ca
nh nc. Ti thi im hin nay (thng 6/2010), VBH v TECCO vn ang thm nh ti
chnh lm th tc u t d n.
3.2 c im ca d n
16

Ton b din tch 24418,5m2 u dnh cho d n, trong bao gm 6500 m2 t dnh cho
hot ng gio dc. Din tch t cn li s dnh cho xy dng chung c, vn phng cho
thu, h bi, trng hc v cng vin cy xanh. Hin ti, y l khu t c cng trnh kin
trc bn kin c v cn kh nhiu t trng.
Khi hon thnh, chung c s thng ra hai ng chnh l ng N Trang Long v ng
Chu Vn An. Khu chung c s nm trong khu quy hoch kh thun li v c s h tng, v
y l khu trung tm ca qun Bnh Thnh, gn vi sn bay Tn Sn Nht, bn xe Min
ng v trung tm qun 1.
Sau khi nghin cu cc vn bn php lut c cn c thc hin d n, VBH thu Dothi
S.J.C lp kin trc, bn thit k c bn c trnh by tm tt Bng 3.1 v c trnh by
chi tit ti Ph lc 3.
Bng 3.1 Thit k c bn
STT

01

02
03
04
05
06

CNG TRNH

Khu A, khi1
khi2
khi3
Khu B, khi1
khi2
Khu C, khi1
khi2
H bi
Trng hc
Tng hm

DIN TCH
XY DNG (m2)

995
1400
600
1487
647
524
1097
863
1,100.0

S TNG

15
20
18
15
20
15
20
2

DIN TCH
SN XY DNG (m2)

14925
28000
10800
22305
12940
7860
21940
843
2200
10.209,12

(Ngun: Tc gi tnh ton theo Kin trc Quy hoch 204 N Trang Long ca Dothi S.J.C nm 2009)

T thit k trn ta tnh ton c din tch sn cn h v h s s dng t. Bng 3.2 s

trnh by c th cch tnh ton ny.

12

Bng 3.2 Phn loi mc ch s dng t trong d n

STT

LOI T

DIN TCH

DIN TCH

MT

H S S

S DNG

XY DNG (m2)

SN (m2)

XY DNG (%)

DNG T

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4) = (2)/St

(5) = (3)/St

Tng din tch t: St = 24.418,5 m2.

01

t xy dng

7593

119613

31.1

1100

2200

4.5

8693

121813

35.62

chung c
02

t xy dng
trng hc
Tng

(Ngun: Tc gi tnh ton theo Kin trc Quy hoch 204 N Trang Long ca Dothi S.J.C nm 2009)

Ngoi vic xy dng cc hng mc cng trnh bao gm 7 khi nh, h bi, trng hc v
tng hm th d n cn phi xy dng ng ni b, cng vin cy xanh v sn chi th
thao. TECCO cho rng, vic b tr giao thng thun li v hi ha vi kin trc, ng thi
m bo cc tiu chun v quy hoch th s lm tng gi tr ca cc cn h cho thu
cng nh cc cn h bn t.
3.3 Gii php kin trc v tiu chun xy dng
17

Gii php kin trc c Dothi J.S.C a ra i vi ton b d n nh sau:

- V giao thng, l gii ng hm ni b c l gii 8m, tuyn ng ngang 12m, c tiu
o nhm phn lung giao thng cc b trong d n. Trc ng ni b c l gii 21m,
phn lung 2 chiu ring bit, ngn cch bi hng cy xanh gia trc ng. H thng
giao thng ni b c ni vi trc ng chnh v cc hm.
- V cc khi, d n s xy dng 7 khi c xy dng, chi tit v din tch xy dng v
s tng c trnh by ti Bng 3.1. Tng hm c thit k thng nhau lm tng
din tch xe, to s thoi mi cho ngi dn v hot ng kinh doanh, ng thi cng
tc qun l v sau cng s thun tin hn. C nhiu phng n c a ra nh u t
quyt nh la chn cc khi cn h dng tch bit vi khi dng cho thu mc ch
kinh doanh, hoc tt c cc khi u dnh 2 n 3 tng cho thu di hn v dnh ton b
cn h cn li bn t.

13

- V cng vin, sn chi th thao, nh tr, c thit k ngay cnh khu chung c v cng
vin cy xanh v trn trc ng trng cy tn rng v cao. Vic xy dng cng vin, sn
chi th thao, nh tr c thc hin vo thi im cui, khi xy dng cc khi hon thin
phn th.
Gii php xy dng m TECCO a ra cho ton b nh sau:
Ton b cng trnh s c xy dng theo tiu chun xy dng Vit Nam. C th l:
- TCVN 5574 1991: Tiu chun thit k - Kt cu b tng ct thp.
- TCVN 2737 1995: Tiu chun thit k - Trng ti v tc ng.
- TCXD 40 1987: Kt cu xy dng v nn mng.
- TCXD 4198 1997: Thit k b tng ton khi - Nh cao tng.
- TCXD 205 1998: Tiu chun thit k - Mng cc.
- TCXD 206 1998: Tiu chun thit k - Cc khoan nhi.
- Kt cu mi c b tng ton khi tng t nh sn cc tng.
- Tiu chun cung cp in sinh hot: 20 TCN 25 91 v 27 91.
- Tiu chun cung cp in cho chiu sng cng cng: 20 TCN 27 91.
- Tiu chun chng st: TCXD 46 1984.
- Tiu chun TCVN 6160 1996 v phng cha chy nh cao tng.
- Tiu chun TCVN 5738 1993 v h thng bo chy yu cu k thut.
- Trn mi khi nh cao tng xy dng 1 b cha nc, dung tch 100m3, va d tr
nc sinh hot, va tr nc cho vic cha chy khi xy ra s c.
3.4 S liu tnh ton lin quan n ni dung phn tch d n
18

D n s xy dng 7 khi nh cao tng, gm 3 khi 15 tng, 3 khi 20 tng v 1 khi 18

tng v dnh ti thiu 2 tng cho thu vn phng, khu thng mi dch v, hi trng,
cc tng cn li th thit k cn h, din tch mi cn h t 60 n 106m2, cc cn h ny
c bn theo gi th trng trong sut qu trnh thc hin v hon thnh d n, v cc cn
h c din tch nh c nhu cu mua rt cao 5. Tng hm c thit k thng nhau gia
4

tng din tch s dng, tng hm c th cho thu v t qun l. Nhng v nh u t phi
lp ban qun l ta nh sau khi hon thnh d n gip cho qu trnh vn hnh, bo tr,
phc v dn c v khch hng mt cch tt nht th tng hm nn c giao cho ban qun
5

http://vietbao.vn/The-gioi-giai-tri/Thieu-can-ho-dien-tich-nho/50789802/411/ v cc nhn nh th trng

khc (truy cp vo 24/6/2010) [15]

14

l. Chi ph tip th qung co tp trung trong qu trnh thc hin d n c th khch

hng ng k mua cn h trong thi gian xy dng, v nh vy cc khon thu t khch
hng s c ti tr tip cho vic thc hin d n, do s gim cc khon vay n. Sau
khi d n hon thnh, cc cn h cha bn ht s c a ra sn giao dch bt ng sn
khng phi chu chi ph tip th qung co, mt khon chi ph kh tn km. D n
khng tnh c s u t c s h tng t pha nh nc. Ch u t phi xy dng ng
ni b, cng vin cy xanh, sn th thao trong khu vc d n.
Tnh ton chi ph d n:
- D n c tnh ton da vo sut vn u t xy dng cng trnh nh 6 nm 2009, trong
5

bao gm cc chi ph cn thit xy dng trn 1m2 sn xy dng. Phn chi ph thit
b bao gm cc chi ph mua sm, lp t thang my v cc thit b vn hnh, my bm
cp nc v h thng phng chy cha chy.
- Chi ph xy dng cc hng mc cng trnh khc nh h bi, trng hc vn c tnh
ton da vo sut vn u t.
- Chi ph xy dng ng ni b, cy xanh, sn th dc th thao th c TECCO tnh ton
c th.
V d n c thm nh vo thi im 1/10/2010 m B Xy dng mi ch cng b sut
vn u t xy dng cng trnh nm 2009, nn phn chi ph phi c tnh ton da trn
mc bin ng gi xy dng qu 1, qu 2 v qu 3 nm 2010 so vi c nm 2009 7.
6

Nhng v B Xy dng cng cha cng b ch s gi xy dng qu 1, qu 2 v qu 3 nm

2010 nn ti xem xt mc bin ng gi ca nhm hng vt liu xy dng 3 trong r
hng ha cu thnh ch s gi tiu dng (CPI) tnh ton v d on gi xy dng vo
thi im thng 10 nm 2010.
Ch s gi xy dng theo cng b ca B Xy dng v ch s gi tiu dng nhm vt liu
xy dng theo cng b ca Tng cc Thng k c ti Bng 3.3.

Xem sut vn u t xy dng cng trnh nm 2009, cng b theo quyt nh 411/Q-BXD ngy
31/3/2010 ca B Xy dng [16]
7
Ch s gi xy dng nm 2009, cng b theo quyt nh 410/Q-BXD ngy 31/3/2010 ca B Xy dng
[17]

15

Bng 3.3 Bin ng gi 3 thng u nm 2010, d bo PCI xy dng thng 10/2010

Cng trnh
xy dng

CPI xy dng
2000 2008

D bo

2009

thng
10/2010

Thng

Thng

Thng

1/2010 8

2/2010 9

3/2010 10

Nh

100

254

232

269

+ 1,66%

+ 1.75%

+ 1.38%

Gio dc

100

248

237

275

+ 1,66%

+ 1.75%

+ 1.38%

Th thao

100

226

228

265

+ 1,66%

+ 1.75%

+ 1.38%

(Ngun: Tc gi tng hp v tnh ton t cng b ch s gi xy dng ca B Xy dng v website ng

ti s liu ca Tng cc Thng k, du + ch CPI tng, du ch CPI gim, so vi thng trc)

Nh vy, gi xy dng nm 2009 gim so vi nm 2008 nhng li gia tng lin tip vo
cc thng u nm 2010. Vi mc tng gi khong 1.5% ca thng sau so vi thng trc
th d bo n thng 10/2010, ch s gi xy dng nh l 269, xy dng cng trnh
gio dc l 275 v xy dng cng trnh th thao l 265 (So vi nm 2009, theo trnh t l
254, 248 v 226). Phng php tnh: Ly ch s gi xy dng (CPIxd) nm 2009 lm thng
gc (thng 0) th CPIxd vo thng 1/2010 bng CPIxd2009 nhn vi (1+1.5%), tip tc nh
vy ta tnh c CPIxd vo thng 10/2010.
Sut vn u t xy dng cng trnh, khng bao gm cc khon mc sau:
- Chi ph xy dng cng trnh h tng k thut, chi ph ngoi tht bn ngoi bn ngoi
cng trnh.
- Chi ph t ai, gii phng mt bng, bi thng v ti nh c.
- nh gi tc ng mi trng v x l cc tc ng ca d n n mi trng.
- Cc chi ph lin quan n vic ng kim, kim nh, chng nhn.
- Chi ph thu chuyn gia t vn.
- Chi ph li vay.
- Chi ph d phng.

http://vneconomy.vn/2010012111041111P0C19/chi-so-gia-tieu-dung-thang-12010-tang-136.htm (truy cp
vo 24/6/2010) [18]
9
http://203.162.71.77:808/vn/thongtinnganh/48620/index.aspx (truy cp vo 24/6/2010) [19]
10
http://vneconomy.vn/20100324012725770P0C19/cpi-thang-3-tang-075-bao-hieu-rui-ro-lam-phat.htm (truy
cp vo 24/6/2010) [20]

16

Cc chi ph trn c tnh ton theo cc khon mc ring, hoc gp trong phn chi ph u
t xy dng cng trnh.
i vi chung c xy dng tng hm th sut vn u t phi nhn vi h s iu chnh.
H s iu chnh tng hm c th hin qua Bng 3.4.
Bng 3.4 H s iu chnh khi xy dng tng hm

S tng hm

H s iu chnh

1 tng hm

1.10 1.13

2 tng hm

1.14 1.16

3 tng hm tr ln

1.18 1.20

Ngun: Sut vn u t xy dng cng trnh nm 2009 B Xy dng ban hnh

T cc t vn, gii php t cc i tc, VBH tnh ton phng n xy dng khu chung c
vn phng cho thu, d kin thi gian lm th tc v xy dng trong vng 4 nm t cui
nm 2010 n nm 2013 (xem Ph lc 4 Tin xy dng khu chung c). Mc d d n
c vng i kh di, nhng tnh ngn lu to ra, d n gi nh s kt thc vo nm
2038, sau khi hot ng 25 nm. Thng tin tm tt nh sau 11:
10

Ch u t: Cng ty in t Bnh t Bnh Ha (VBH)

a im d n: 204 N Trang Long, phng 12, qun Bnh Thnh.
Tn d n: Xy dng Khu chung c kt hp cao c vn phng v thng mi dch v.
Tng mc u t 12: 1658.66 t ng
11

Din tch t thc hin d n 13: 24.418,5m2.

12

Khi chung c: Gm 7 khi, trong 3 khi 15 tng, 1 khi 18 tng v 3 khi 20 tng.
Mt xy dng ti a: 35% (Lut nh t cho php mt xy dng ti a n 45%)
H s s dng t: 5.
11

Theo n ngh cung cp tha thun quy hoch kin trc ca VBH gi S Quy hoch kin trc ngy
22/8/2008 [21]
12
Thm nh da vo sut vn u t ca B xy dng v cc quy nh ca nh nc. Tng mc u t theo
tnh ton trn l tng mc u t trung bnh.
13
Giy chng nhn quyn s dng t ti Quyt nh 4159/Q-UBND ngy 14/9/2006 ca UBND TP. HCM
[22]

17

D n c thit k v xy dng theo kin trc quy hoch 204 N Trang Long do Dothi
S.J.C thit k vo ngy 11/8/2009 (xem chi tit ti Ph lc 3)

Qua ni dung trnh by trn cho thy, VBH cn phi u t xy dng khu chung c, vn
phng cho thu trn mnh t 24418.5m2 m VBH ang s dng. V mt thit k v kin
trc khu chung c, vn phng cho thu c cng ty Dothi J.SC thc hin, v gii php
xy dng v thi cng c TECCO thc hin. D n bao gm 7 khi nh cao tng, 3 khi
15 tng, 3 khi 20 tng v 1 khi 18 tng. Chi ph u t d n c tnh ton theo sut
vn u t xy dng cng trnh do B Xy dng ban hnh v iu chnh theo ch s gi
nhm ngnh vt liu xy dng.

18

Chng 4. PHN TCH TI CHNH D N

3

Chng 4 tnh ton cc phng n kinh doanh v nh gi chng theo cc tiu ch thm
nh. Chng ny cng tnh ton cc khon doanh thu, chi ph, vay n v thu hnh
thnh dng tin ca cc phng n trn.

4.1 Gii thiu cc phng n phn tch

19

i vi bt k d n kinh doanh no, cc bn tham gia u tho lun cc phng n u t

c th. Ring d n Bnh Ha, VBH v TECCO yu cu phn tch 3 phng n kinh
doanh. V VBH c th t qun l tng hm, vn phng cho thu hoc hp ng vi mt
cng ty kinh doanh bt ng sn qun l ton b cc hot ng kinh doanh a c. Mt
khc, theo xu hng chung ca th trng cn h, vn phng cho thu, VBH c th s dnh
ring mt s khi cho thu hoc s ch dnh ring cc tng thp cho thu lm vn phng.
M hnh ti chnh c thit k cho 3 phng n kinh doanh, c th nh sau:
(i) Phng n 1: VBH t qun l tng hm, dnh ring 2 khi 15 tng cho thu, 5 khi
cn li (3 khi 20 tng, 1 khi 18 tng v 1 khi 15 tng) bn t. Trong 2 khi cho
thu th dnh 4 tng di cho thu di hn v 11 tng trn cho thu ngn hn.
(ii) Phng n 2: VBH cho thu tng hm, hoc ch nh thu qua Ban qun l, dnh ring
2 khi 15 tng cho thu, 5 khi cn li (3 khi 20 tng, 1 khi 18 tng v 1 khi 15
tng) th xy dng cn h bn t, 4 tng di cho thu di hn v 11 tng trn cho
thu ngn hn.
(iii) Phng n 3: VBH t qun l tng hm, ng thi cho thu 2 tng ca tt c 7 khi,
cho mc ch lm vn phng, khu thng mi. Bn ton b cn h t tng 3 tr ln
ca tt c cc khi nh.
D liu c s dng tnh ton, phn tch cho 3 phng n nh sau:
- Thi k phn tch dng tin c tnh t nm gc (nm 0) l nm 2010. D n ko di 25
nm, kt thc vo nm 2038.
- Gi cho thu vn phng.

19

Gi vn phng cho thu c ly t bo co qu 3 nm 2009 ca Cng ty kinh doanh bt

ng sn CB Richard Ellis Vit Nam (CBRE) l 30$/m2 [23], tc tng gi cho thu
c gi nh 5%/nm 14.
13

- Gi bn cn h.
Vo nm gc, gi cn h c ly t gi bn trung bnh cc cn h ca cng ty TECCO
trn th trng, v cng ty TECCO l n v t vn, thi cng v gp vn c phn, ng thi
cng l c ng (51% c phn thuc nh nc, 40% c phn thuc Tecco) ca VBH nn
d n s c thc hin tng t nh cc d n xy dng chung c, vn phng cho thu
ca TECCO. Gi bn trung bnh 1m2 cn h ca TECCO nm 2009 l 14 triu VND. Mc
gi ny cng c tham kho t gi bn cn h trn th trng TP. HCM t cc bo co
qu ca CBRE trong cng nm. Gi bn cn h c m hnh la chn c gi th trng
thp nht vo nm chun b thc hin d n (nm 2009). Nghin cu ca Cng ty Bt ng
sn Vietrees 15 th tng cu v cn h ti TP HCM trong giai on 2010 2011 vo khong
14

75.000 cn, trong khi tng cung ch vo khong 23.500 cn. Mc gi c kh nng thanh
ton trong giai on ny vo khong 14,6 triu ng 17,4 triu ng/m2. Vic h gi cn
h so vi th trng ban u l nhm mc ch tng tng lng khch hng mua cn h
ngay t khi d n khi cng ti tr d n trong thi gian xy dng. M hnh gi nh
thm cho c 3 m hnh l mc gi ny tng 10%/nm.
- Din tch cn h bn ra.
Vic bn cn h ngay khi d n khi cng s to ra dng ngn lu cho ch u t. Ch u
t s dng doanh thu t vic bn cn h tip tc ti tr cho d n. V khi xy dng m
hnh ti chnh, chi ph xy dng cn h c tnh trn sut vn u t nn khng cn quan
tm n din tch cn h hay s lng cn h bn ra. Din tch cn h ch c ngha i
vi phn tch xu hng la chn cn h ca khch hng. Theo s liu ca TECCO 16,
15

cc d n xy dng chung c bn c khong 50% s lng cn h trong thi gian xy

dng n hon thnh d n. Nhiu d n xy dng chung c bn ht s cn h ngay

14

Trong khi gi vn phng cho thu ti khu vc trung tm cao v c xu hng gim th khu vc xa trung tm
li c xu hng tng. Ngun: http://www.tin247.com/van_phong_cho_thue_rap_rinh_tang_gia-321521790.html, truy cp ngy 24/6/2010 [24].
15
http://www.vietrees.com/index.php?navi=home [25]
16
i vi cc d n: Qun 2, Qun 12, Linh ng (HCM); C1 Quang trung, Vinh Tn (Ngh An) do Tecco
u t v thi cng [25]

20

trong thi gian xy dng, thm ch khi cn cha xong phn mng nh u t bn gn
ht s lng cn h 17. M hnh cng d kin, ton b cn h s c bn ht trong 5 nm
16

k t khi xy xong phn mng, t 2011 n 2015. D kin din tch sn bn ra c trnh
by qua Bng 4.1.
Bng 4.1 Din tch sn cn h c bn ra hng nm

Nm

2011

Din tch sn bn ra
Thu t bn cn h

2012

2013

2014

2015

20%

25%

25%

20%

10%

100.37

257.20

617.91

333.98

183.69

- Gi cho thu tng hm.

Mc d chi ph xy dng tng hm l chi ph u t c phn b vo gi bn nhng tng
hm vn thuc s hu ca ch u t, ngha l h c quyn cho thu hoc t qun l. Gi
cho thu tng hm phc v cho mc ch gi xe ti cc khu chung c vo thi im u
nm tnh ton khong 25.000 n 30.000 ng/m2, gi cho thu tng hm t bin ng do
ph gi xe c nh nc quy nh thng khng thay i trong thi gian di nn gi nh
ca m hnh l gi cho thu tng hm 5 nm tng 1 ln, mi ln tng 10%.
- Ph gi xe my v t hng thng.
Tng hm s dng ch yu cho mc ch gi xe. V din tch tng hm thuc s hu ca
ch u t nn VBH cn tnh ton doanh thu t vic thu ph. Ph gi xe my v t chim
phn ln nn c a vo m hnh, mt s khon thu khc c th c nhng khng ng
k. Ph gi xe my v t hng thng ca khu chung c c tham kho t cc chung c
khc nhng khng vt qu quy nh ca nh nc. S lng xe my v t gi ti tng
hm c tnh ton da trn so snh din tch tng hm ca chung c The Manor, th hin
ti Bng 4.2 S lng xe my v t gi ti tng hm.
Bng 4.2 S lng xe my v t gi ti tng hm
2

Din tch s dng tng hm (m )

t (ci)
xe my (ci)

The Manor
20260
283
560

Bnh Ha
9,188.2
128.00
254.00

(Ngun: Tc gi tnh ton theo s liu ca chung c The Manor)

17

http://vietnamnet.vn/kinhte/200912/Mong-chua-xong-nha-da-ban-885579/ [26]
Khu cn h cao cp Him lam Nam Si gn vi din tch trn 10.000m2 bn ht 100% ch trong vng 2
thng sau khi xy xong phn mng (ngun: http://vietbao.vn/Nha-dat/100-can-ho-Him-Lam-Nam-Sai-Gonda-duoc-ban-het/45233203/511/)

21

- Gi nguyn vt liu.
c tnh ton theo sut vn u t xy dng cng trnh sau iu chnh theo CPI nhm
ngnh vt liu xy dng.
- Chi ph hot ng.
Trong thi gian xy dng, chi ph qun l chim 1% tng chi ph xy lp. Sau khi hon
thnh d n, cc vn phng cho thu v cn h bn t u phi ng ph hot ng. Chi
ph ny c thu theo quy nh ca nh nc tr cho nh cung cp dch v v tr tin
lng cho ban qun l chung c.
- Chi ph bo tr.
Khon chi ph bo tr 2% c trch 1 ln duy nht ngay t khi khch hng mua cn h.
Gi bn cn h tnh chi ph 2% bo tr [28]. i vi khu vc cho thu th nh u t
cng phi trch 2% chi ph bo tr t doanh thu cho thu. Mc thu chi ph bo tr ny c
quy nh bi php lut nhng thc t nhiu d n khng thc hin quy nh v mc thu
khon ph ny 18.
17

4.2 Biu dng tin ti chnh.

20

xy dng dng tin t ti chnh, lun vn s tin hnh tnh ton chi ph u t, chi ph
vn hnh, doanh thu ca d n, vn vay v k hoch tr li vay, khu hao, bo co thu
nhp. Tnh ton chi tit xem ti Ph lc 10.
4.2.1 Chi ph u t
29

Chi ph d n bao gm cc hng mc: t ai, xy dng chung c, h bi, trng hc,
ng ni b, cy xanh, sn th dc th thao v chi ph khc. Chi ph d phng bng 10%
i vi tng hng mc u t (tr t). Tng mc u t ca d n l: 1658.66 t (bao
gm c chi ph d phng). Chi ph u t c th hin qua Bng 4.3 Lch chi ph u t.

18

Do vy, lun vn a chi ph bo tr thnh 1 mc trong d liu ti chnh nhn mnh, lm r vn [28]

22

Bng 4.3 Lch chi ph u t (n v tnh: t ng)

Tng hp chi ph u t (theo nm)

t ai (gi nh nc)

2010

2011

2012

2013

242.52

Xy dng 7 khi nh cao tng

57.99

579.92

521.93

H bi

9.41

Trng hc

9.16

ng ni b, cy xanh, sn TDTT

40.10

Thit k, gim st

19.50

4.87

Qun l ph (Ban qun l)

0.61

6.09

5.48

6.09

6.09

12.19

0.00

0.06

0.43

0.37

0.37

6.09

3.66

2.44

24.37

1.68

23.54

1.68

6.73

250.36

106.94

635.58

600.48

Chi ph khc

T vn ti chnh
Bo him
Chi ph php l v k ton
Chi ph tip th qung co
Huy ng vn
Chi ph h s
Ngn lu chi ph u t

Khi d n c chp thun, Ban ch o 09 s thu hi t v tnh gi t ch u t

(VBH) mua theo gi nh nc. Gi t ng Chu Vn An nm 2010 c gi 11 triu
ng/m2 v gi t ng N Trang Long gi 16,2 triu ng/m2. Nhng v khu t lm d
n tip gip ng N Trang Long l hm trn 5m (hm cp 1) nn khi mua t s c
gim gi theo h s iu chnh gi. Bng iu chnh gi t sau y c p dng cho tnh
ton chi ph t phn gip ng N Trang Long.
Bng 4.4 H s tnh gi t hm
Loi hm
Hm cp 1
Cc cp hm cn li

V tr 1
0,5

V tr 2
0,4

V tr 3

V tr 4

0,3

Tnh khng qu 0,8 ln gi hm cp 1

(Ngun: http://diaoc.tuoitre.vn/Index.aspx?ArticleID=355810&ChannelID=204 [29])

0,2

23

4.2.2 Chi ph vn hnh

30

Chi ph vn hnh, qun l v bo tr gm cc khon mc thu tng hm s c chuyn giao

cho ban qun l, khon trch np ph bo tr t cho thu vn phng di hn (hoc ngn hn,
nu c), khon trch np t cn h bn t v thu ph bo tr h tng k thut.
Chi ph vn hnh, qun l v bo tr c trnh by chi tit ti Ph lc 5.
4.2.3 Doanh thu ca d n
31

Cc khon doanh thu ca d n gm doanh thu t bn cn h, doanh thu t cho thu vn

phng, dch v gi xe tng hm, thu ph qun l, vn hnh, thu ph bo tr h tng k thut.
V ch tnh thi gian vn hnh trong 25 nm nn gi tr kt thc ca d n c xem l mt
khon doanh thu vo nm cui cng ca d n. D n c doanh thu k t nm u tin
thc hin d n, ngay sau khi d n xy dng khi cng.
n v lin doanh v thi cng TECCO l nn VBH khng quan tm chi ph v khon
doanh thu t thanh l thit b, my mc sau khi thc hin d n.
Cc khon ph qun l, vn hnh, ph bo tr h tng k thut va l khon doanh thu khi
ch u t thu t khch hng, nhng li va l khon chi ph khi nh u t phi dng ton
b khon thu qun l, vn hnh v bo tr d n lun hot ng. Hai khon thu
chi ny bng nhau v ch u t khng c li nhun t hot ng ny.
Doanh thu ti chnh ca d n c trnh by chi tit ti Ph lc 9.
4.2.4 K hoch vay vn v tr li
32

- K hoch vay vn.

Mc d VBH hp tc cng TECCO thc hin d n nhng d n vn phi huy ng n
vay trong qu trnh xy dng. V chi ph vay n nh hn chi ph vn ch s hu nn n
vay cng l cch tng t sut li nhun trn vn.
Chi ph ban u c huy ng t ng gp ca c ng cho vic mua t ai v cc
khon chi ph thit k, gim st, t vn ti chnh, bo him, huy ng vn. Vn vay t
ngn hng thng mi s ti tr cho hot ng xy dng khu chung c trong 2 nm, thi
hn vay 5 nm, li gc tr u, li vay trong thi gian xy dng tnh vo n gc. Li sut
tin gi VND 12 thng ti cc ngn hng giao ng mc 11.5% thng 19 (tnh c hnh
18

19

http://www.vtc.vn/bvntd/156-246887/the-gioi-tieu-dung/lai-suat-huy-dong-tien-gui-tai-ngan-hang-vuot115nam.htm [30]

24

thc khuyn mi cho vay), chnh lch gi huy ng vn tin gi v cho vay khong 3,5%
nn mt khon vay thng mi s c li vay 15%/nm. Vi mc lm pht trong nc c
EIU d on khong 8,7% vo nm 2010 th li sut vay thc mc 5.8%/nm. Khon
u t 250,32 t ban u c huy ng t c ng v trong nm ny cha c doanh thu.
K t nm th 2 ca d n, d n bt u c doanh thu t vic mua bn cn h theo tin
xy dng, sau khi xy xong phn mng, nn khon u t cn li s c huy ng t
vic vay ngn hng thng mi. Thng thng, giai on xy dng chung c chi ph
marketing thng ln v ch u t mong mun thu tin t khch hng u t hn l i
vay. Vn vay t ngn hng thng mi c trnh by qua Bng 4.5 k hoch vay vn.
Bng 4.5 K hoch vay vn (t ng)

Nm

2010

2011

2012

2013

Ngn lu chi ph u t

250,36

106,94

635,58

600,48

u t ban u

250,36

Thu t khc hng

0,00

100,37

257,20

617,91

Vn vay t ngn hng thng mi

0,00

6,57

378,38

0,00

Nh vy, y l d n c vay n v vic vay n s nh hng ti tnh ton WACC. Sut

sinh li danh ngha m nh u t yu cu ca d n l 18% (TECCO tr c tc 3 nm gn
y nht l 18%/nm), li vay 15% v chi ph vn bnh qun trng s ca d n s c
tnh ton bng cch ly 15% nhn vi khon vay n cng vi 18% nhn vi vn ch s
hu, tt c chia cho ti sn d n.
- Lch tr n.
D n s phi tr n ngay t nm u tin hot ng. Da vo ngn lu n vay tnh ton
h s tr n DSCR, t y chng ta a ra nhng lp lun khng nh v quyt nh cho
vay vn ca ngn hng.
Lch tr n c trnh by chi tit ti Ph lc 6.
4.2.5 Lch khu hao
33

Khu hao theo phng php ng thng khu tr khi tnh thu nhp chu thu. Thi
gian s dng ti sn c nh p dng cng trnh xy dng l 25 nm v thit b l 5 nm.
Chi ph hot ng cho ban qun l d n, chi ph php l v k ton, chi ph tip th qun
co v chi ph h s c phn b vo chi ph kinh doanh trong 3 nm tnh thu nhp

25

chu thu. Chi ph v thit k, t vn ti chnh, bo him v huy ng vn tnh gp vo chi

ph xy dng cng trnh v khu hao trong 25 nm.
Lch khu hao c trnh by chi tit ti Ph lc 7.
4.2.6 Bo co thu nhp
34

Sau khi xc nh doanh thu v chi ph ca d n, bo co thu nhp th hin phn li/l m
d n nhn c. Theo kt qu phn tch, d n ny bt u c li k t nm th 3 sau khi
thc hin. Cc khon doanh thu ca d n gm 2 hng mc chnh: Thu t hot ng cho
thu vn phng v thu t vic bn t cn h. Thu nhp tim nng l thu nhp tr thu
ca cc hng mc: ph s dng tng hm, cho thu vn phng, thu t cn h bn t, ph
qun l, vn hnh, ph bo tr h tng k thut. Tuy nhin, cc thu ph qun l, vn hnh,
bo tr k thut s c chuyn cho Ban qun l ta nh mt khon chi ph hot ng, vn
hnh d n nn tht ra dng tin ny khng chy vo nh u t.
Bo co thu nhp c trnh by ti phn Ph lc 8.
4.2.7 Biu dng tin ti chnh
35

Bng cch thit lp ngn lu ca cc khon doanh thu (ngn lu vo) v chi ph d n
(ngn lu ra) ta tnh ton c ngn lu hot ng rng. Ngn lu vo ca d n gm: ph
s dng tng hm, cho thu vn phng, thu t cn h bn t, ph qun l, vn hnh, ph
bo tr h tng k thut. Tng cc khon ngn lu vo sau khi khu tr thu VAT s thnh
thu nhp tim nng. Ngn lu ra ca d n gm: Chi ph t, chi ph u t, chi ph vn
hnh, qun l, bo tr v thu thu nhp doanh nghip. Ngn lu rng d n bng ngn lu
hot ng rng tr i chi ph u t. Ngn lu rng ch u t bng ngn lu rng d n
sau khi tr i vay n t ngn hng thng mi. Biu dng tin t trnh by chi tit ti
Ph lc 10 v c th hin trn Biu 4.1. Vo nm th 5, ngn lu vo ca d n tng
cao l do ti thi im ny d n i vo hon thin nn khch hng mua cn h t cc
nm trc phi np s tin cn li v khch hng khi mua cn h mi t thi im ny
phi np 100% tin, y l thi im chuyn t bn hng theo tin sang bn hng theo
cha kha trao tay.

26

Biu 4-1 Ngn lu ti chnh d n

4.3 Tnh ton phn tch ti chnh
21

C s khc nhau gia mc vn u t ca 3 phng n v s gi nh khc nhau ca 3 m

hnh. phng n 1 nh u t t qun l tng hm v phng n 2 l cho thu tng hm
th chi ph xy dng, tng mc u t, vay n ca c 2 phng n l khng thay i nhng
IRR v NPV phng n 2 cao hn.
S khc bit nm phng n 3 nu nh u t la chn t qun l tng hm, ng thi
cho thu 2 tng ca tt c 7 khi th tng mc u t ln hn nhng vay n t hn 2
phng n 1 v 2 nhng vn t IRR v NPV cao hn 2 phng n cn li. L d l m
hnh 1 v 2, nh u t dnh hn 2 khi cho thu (mi khi 15 tng), trong gi cho thu
ngn hn (di 1 nm) 11 tng trn ch bng 2/3 so vi gi thu trung bnh ca 4 tng trt,
v tng trt c li th thng mi hn. ng thi, c 2 m hnh 1 v 2, do dnh phn ln
din tch cho thu nn nh u t s phi chi thm 5% t doanh thu ca hot ng cho thu
ngn hn cho hot ng tip th v qung co.
Trn c 3 m hnh u gi nh rng, trong thi gian d n s bn c 70% din tch cn
h, tc tng gi bn hng nm l 10% v ch u t s chi s tin tr gp ca khch
hng ti tr cho d n, khi doanh thu t tr gp ny khng chi ph u t trong nm
tnh ton, ch u t mi vay n t ngn hng thng mi. Kt qu phn tch v ti chnh
d n ca cc phng n u t theo cc ch tiu thm nh c trnh by ti Bng 4.6.

27

Bng 4.6 So snh cc phng n u t

Phng n 1
Tng mc u t (t VND)

Phng n 2

Phng n 3

1668.24

1668.24

1658.66

453.56

453.56

384.95

IRR d n, thc

20,95%

20,99%

25,1%

IRR ch u t, thc

24,82%

24,87%

30,17%

IRR d n, danh ngha

30,63%

30,67%

35,13%

IRR ch u t, danh ngha

34,81%

34,86%

40,58%

919,56

923,40

1100,63

820,8

824,31

1010,3

DSCR thp nht

0.94

0.94

1.26

B/C

1.17

1.17

1.24

Vay n (t VND)

NPV d n (t VND)
NPV ch u t (t VND)

PP (ch u t)

5 nm 4 thng

5 nm 4 thng 3 nm 8 thng

Nhn vo Bng 4.6, d dng nhn thy phng n 3 l phng n c nh u t la chn

v c NPV v IRR cao hn, PP thp hn 2 phng n cn li, ng thi p ng c cc
tiu chun thm nh ti chnh v NPV, IRR (NPV > 0 v IRR danh ngha = 40.58% > sut
sinh li danh ngha m nh u t yu cu = 18%). DSCR ca phng n 3 > DSCR ca 2
phng n 1 v 2, ng thi ch s ny ln hn 1 i vi ch u t v > 1,2 i vi ngn
hng. Nu ch u t la chn phng n 1 hoc 2 th ngn hng s cn nhc trc khi cho
vay hoc yu cu tng vn ch s hu. H s B/C ca phng n 3 = 1.24 cng cao hn 2
phng n cn li.
Ngoi ra, khi la chn phng n 3, ch u t s c thun li sau:
- Ban qun l s thay mt ch u t qun l, kinh doanh tng hm chung c v c trch
nhim trong vic bo tr h thng chung c, bao gm c cc c s h tng k thut. Nh
vy s gip cho ch u t phc v khch hng mt cch tt nht, nng cao uy tn v
thng hiu cho nh u t.
- Vic cho thu ton b 2 tng ca 7 khi cho mc ch lm vn phng, khu thng mi c
th t c 100% din tch ngay sau nm hon thnh d n, v nhu cu cn thu tng trt
lm trung tm thng mi TP. HCM kh ln do th trng bn l Vit nam tng

28

cao 20. Nu so vi phng n 1 v 2 dnh 11 tng cho thu ngn hn th din tch cho thu
19

kh t c 100% t nm sau khi kt thc d n, nn s mt thm chi ph marketing v

chi ph giao dch lm NPV ca ch u t gim.
Phng n 3 s c s dng thc hin cc bc phn tch tip theo i vi d n.
4.4 Phn tch kt qu thm nh
22

Kt qu t tnh ton cho thy, phng n 3 c NPV = 1100.63 t VND > 0 v mang li cho
ch u t 1010.3 t ng li nhun sau thu v li vay. Sut hon vn ni b (IRR danh
ngha) l 40.58%> sut sinh li danh ngha m nh u t yu cu (18%). IRR thc ca d
n l 25.1% ln hn chi ph vn bnh qun trng s tnh theo gi tr thc (8,59%), B/C > 1,
PP < 5
T sut hon vn ni b IRR ca d n l 35.13%, ca ch u t l 40.58% (gi tr danh
ngha) c xem l kh cao i vi ngnh kinh doanh xy dng chung c, vn phng cho
thu hin nay. Trung bnh d n xy dng chung c, vn phng cho thu em li cho nh
u t sut sinh li khong t 20 n 30% 21. Theo tnh ton, thi gian hon vn ca d n
20

l 4 nm 2 thng v thi gian hon vn cho nh u t l 3 nm 8 thng. T l hon vn

ca d n (ROI) l 66,36%, t l hon vn ca nh u t l 92,37%, ngha l nu nh u
t b ra 1 ng s thu li 0,92 ng. Thi gian hon vn ca d n v ch u t c
xem l nh hn quy nh v d n c t l ROI kh cao.
Ngoi ra, d n c h s tr n (DSCR) l thp nht l 1,26, ngha l thu nhp rng
trang tri thp nht l 126% khon n vay trong k nn d n hon ton c th i vay n
cc ngn hng thng mi.
y l d n c vng i kh di, nhng m hnh ch gii hn thi gian hot ng trong
vng 25 nm, vi mc IRR tng i tt nh vy, d n c xem l c mc tng trng
cao.
Nh vy, cc phng n a ra u c NPV dng v IRR > MARR. Nhng phng n 3
l phng n tt nht so vi 2 phng n cn li khi so snh v NPV, IRR, B/C, DSCR.
Trong khi phng n 1 v 2 s kh chp nhp vic vay n hn hoc phi gia tng vn ch
s hu gim n nn khng s dng tt n by n. Phng n 3 cng l phng n c
t l hon vn ca d n (ROI) rt cao.
20
21

http://www.dothi.net/news/tin-tuc/thi-truong/2010/03/3b9aee56/ (tp hp s liu ca CBRE) [31]

Tham kho s liu mt s d n ti TECCO [26]

29

Tm li, sau khi a ra ra 3 phng n kinh doanh v cc thng s u vo tnh ton

cc ch tiu thm nh ti chnh cho thy c 3 phng n u kh thi v mt ti chnh,
nhng phng n 1 v 2 s cn phi cn nhc kh nng tr n. Phng n 3 l phng n
tt nht trong 3 phng n a ra theo v phng n ny c NPV, IRR, B/C, DSCR ln
hn v PP nh hn cc phng n cn li. Cc phn tch tip theo ca lun vn s c
da trn phng n 3.

30

Chng 5. PHN TCH RI RO

4

Chng 5 phn tch ri ro v mt ti chnh ca d n, trong xc nh cc bin ri ro tc

ng ng n cc tiu ch thm nh, ng thi tnh ton mc , xc sut ri ro m d n
c th chu ng c

5.1 Xc nh bin ri ro
23

i vi d n xy dng khu chung c kt hp vn phng cho thu c nhiu bin ri ro nh

hng n quyt nh u t d n. Sau khi chy nhy vi cc bin u vo trong bng
thng s nh li sut, t l bn cn h hng nm, thu ph khch vng lai gi xe ti tng
hm th tc gi nhn thy c 4 bin ri ro quan trng nh u t quyt nh thc hin d
n l gi bn cn h, gi cho thu vn phng, chi ph xy dng v mc lm pht.
- Gi bn cn h.
M hnh gi nh, gi bn cn h l 14 triu VND/1m2. S liu tham kho s liu ca
CBRE Vit nam trong Q3/2009 v ti cng ty TECCO. Mc tng gi bn thc l
10%/nm, tng u hng nm.
- Gi cho thu vn phng.
Gi cho thu vn phng tham kho t mc gi trung bnh cn h hng B ca CBRE Vit
Nam cng b trong Q3/2009 l 30$/m2/thng.
- Chi ph xy dng.
Chi ph xy dng c tnh ton da trn sut vn u t xy dng cng trnh cng trnh
ca B Xy dng c iu chnh theo lm pht.
- Mc lm pht.
Lm pht Vit Nam c ly t s liu ca Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) [31], sau
tnh trung bnh lm pht trong c giai on. V vy, lm pht ni a m hnh c s l 8%.
Lm pht nc ngoi c tnh ton da trn d liu lm pht trong qu kh ca Hoa K
trong 89 nm t 1921 n 2009.

31

5.2 M hnh kt qu
24

- Kt qu chy nhy i vi gi bn cn h.
Gi bn cn h ban u cn c vo bo co qu 3/2009 ca CBRE Vit nam v cn h do
TECCO xy dng 22, theo mc gi bn trung bnh l 14 triu/m2, mc tng gi cn h
21

gi nh s tng 10%/nm trong sut vng i d n. Gi s rng gi bn cn h l 0,

12,13,16,16 v 18 triu ng. Kt qu phn tch nhy ca gi bn cn h i vi cc ch
tiu ti chnh c trnh by ti Bng 5.1.
Bng 5.1 S thay i ca gi bn cn h n IRR v NPV (gi t nh nc)
Gi bn cn h
(triu VND/m2)
IRR d n, thc
IRR ch u t, thc

14

3,1

11,0

12,0

13

15

16

25,1%

7,1%

9,0%

18,2%

20,2%

22,5%

28,1%

31,4%

30,2%

7,2%

9,3%

20,8%

23,5%

26,6%

34,0%

38,0%

35,1%

15,7%

17,7%

27,6%

29,8%

32,3%

38,3%

41,9%

40,6%

15,8%

18,0%

30,4%

33,4%

36,8%

44,7%

49,0%

1100,6

-139,6

127,4

834,6

923,5

1012,2

1188,9

1277,0

1010,3

-272,0

0,0

732,2

824,9

917,6

1103,0

1195,7

IRR d n danh
ngha
IRR ch u t, danh
ngha
NPV d n
(t VND)
NPV ch u t
(t VND)

Gi bn cn h c tng quan ng bin vi NPV v IRR. Trong iu kin cc yu t khc

khng i, gi bn cn h gn nh khng nh hng n quyt nh u t ca VBH. Ch
khi no mc gi bn bng 3,1 triu ng/m2 th NPV ca VBH mi bng 0. Mc gi bn
3,1 triu ng/m2 l khng th xy ra trn thc t, v theo bo co ca CBRE vo qu
4/2009, qu 1/2010, gi bn cc cn h chung c trn th trng mc cao gp 10 ln nh
vy. Tng quan v s thay i ca gi bn cn h v NPV ca ch u t, gi t l gi
nh nc quy nh c th hin qua Biu 5.1.
iu ny c gii thch bi vic VBH c mua t theo gi nh nc t Ban ch o 09
l kh thp so vi gi th trng. Mc gi th trng c tng hp t cc din n mua
22

Tham kho gi bn cn h Linh ng- Th c [33]

32

bn nh t, ti thi im nm 2009 khu vc ng N Trang Long l 34,3 triu ng/m2.

Gi t nm 2010 tng khong 10% so vi gi nm 2009, nh vy, gi th trng ca t
trong d n ny c xc nh l 37,78 triu ng/m2. Nu nh nc vn cho php VBH
chuyn i mc ch s dng t nhng buc VBH mua t theo gi th trng th gi t
sau khi chuyn i (tnh c ph chuyn i) khng phi l 242,5 t ng m phi l 959,4
t ng. Chnh lch khon chi ph v t u t l 959,4 242,5 = 716,8 t ng. iu
ny c ngha l nh nc tr cp mt khon tin 716,8 t ng cho d n Bnh Ha
bng hnh thc tr gi t m cch thc hin l cho php doanh nghip chuyn i mc
ch s dng t v c mua t theo gi quy nh ca nh nc.

Gi bn cn h v NPV ch u t

NPV ch u t (t ng)

1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2

200

10

12

14

16

18

Gi bn cn h (triu ng/m2)

400

Biu 5.1 Gi bn cn h v NPV ch u t.

Nu p dng gi t 37,78 triu ng/m2 l gi th trng, th NPV ca d n s l 348,24

t ng v NPV ca ch u t l 293,4 t ng, IRR danh ngha ca d n l 20,2% v
ca ch u t l 20,56%.
Bng phn tch nhy gi bn cn h v cc ch tiu ti chnh, cho d n Bnh Ha nu
phi mua t theo gi th trng, c trnh by qua bng 5.2.

33

Bng 5.2 S thay i gi bn cn h n IRR v NPV (gi t th trng)

Gi bn cn h
14

(triu VND/m2)
IRR d n, thc
IRR ch u t, thc
IRR d n, thc, danh ngha
IRR ch u t, danh ngha

10,2

10,8

13

15

11,3%

4,2%

8,7%

9,1%

10,6%

12,1%

11,6%

4,1%

8,8%

9,3%

10,8%

12,5%

20,2%

12,6%

17,4%

17,8%

19,4%

21,1%

20,6%

12,4%

17,5%

18,0%

19,7%

21,5%

348,2

-915,3

0,0

61,5

257,8

438,5

293,4

-988,8

-62,7

0,0

200,7

386,1

NPV d n (t ng)
NPV ch u t (t ng)

Kt qu Bng 5.2 cho thy, vi mc gi bn cn h l 10.8 triu ng/m2 th NPV ca ch

u t bng 0 v mc IRR danh ngha ca ch u t ng bng MARR. Nh vy, nu
VBH mua t theo gi th trng th VBH s phi bn cn h vi gi t 10,2 triu/m2 tr
ln mi c li. Tng quan v s thay i ca gi bn cn h v NPV ca ch u t, nu
p dng gi t l gi th trng, c th hin qua Biu 5.2.

Gi bn cn h v NPV ch u t
800
600

NPV ch u t (t ng)

400
200
0
2

10

12

14

16

200
Gi bn cn h (triu ng/m2)
400
600
800
1000

Biu 5.2 Gi bn cn h v NPV ch u t

18

34

- Phn tch nhy i vi mc tng gi bn cn h.

Phn tch trn l da vo m hnh c s vi gi nh mc tng gi cn h mc 10%/nm
trong sut vng i d n (thc ra ch sau 5 nm sau khi xy xong mng th d n bn
ht cn h). V mc tng gi 10% khng nh hng n quyt nh u t nh phn tch
ri ro cho trng hp thay i gi bn n mc bng 3,1 triu ng/m2 nn gi s mc
tng gi s xy ra t 0% n 10% (trng hp bi quan). Tc tng/gim gi bn cn h
thc nh hng n quyt nh u t nh th no c trnh by ti Bng 5.3, kch bn 1
tc tng theo m hnh c s l 10%, kch bn 2 tng 8%, kch bn 3 tng 6%, kch bn 4
tng 4%, kch bn 5 tng 2% v kch bn 6 l gi bn cn h khng tng gi. Tc tng
gi bn thc c duy tr u hng nm (tng u).
Bng 5.3 Tc tng/gim gi bn thc nh hng n quyt nh u t

Tc tng gi bn thc
IRR d n
IRR ch u t
NPV d n (t ng)
NPV ch u t (t ng)

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

25,12%

23,30% 21,68% 20,24% 18,97%

17,85%

30,17%

27,64% 25,38% 23,39% 21,65%

20,13%

1100,63 1035,19

972,60

912,77

855,59

800,97

1010,27

880,32

819,57

761,49

706,00

943,86

Tng hp Bng 5.3 cho thy mc tng/gim gi bn thc khng lm thay i quyt
nh u t v ngay c khi gi bn cn h khng tng trong sut thi gian bn cn h th
NPV vn > 0 v IRR ch u t khi thc hin d n > MARR. Tc ng ca tc tng
gim gi bn cn h thc ln NPV ch u t c th hin qua Biu 5-3.
Tc tng/gim gi bn cn h thc v NPV ch u t

NPVCh u t(t ng)

1500
1000
500
0
0%
500

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Tc tng/gim gi bn cn h thc (%)

1000
1500
2000

Biu 5.3 Tc tng/gim gi bn cn h thc v NPV

12%

35

Biu 5.3 cho thy gi nh ca m hnh l mc tng gi 10% hng nm c nh

hng rt t n NPV ca ch u t v tng quan gia NPV khi tc tng gi thay i
c th hin l mt ng thng gn nh nm ngang (ngha l NPV t bin ng)
V kt lun a ra l gi bn cn h v mc tng gi bn cn h khng nh hng n
quyt nh u t nn vic tin hnh phn tch m phng vi bin ri ro l gi bn cn h
v mc tng gi bn cn h l khng cn thit.
- Kt qu chy nhy i vi gi cho thu vn phng.
Gi cho thu tng trt (lu 1) kinh doanh theo tng hp ca CBRE vo qu 1/2010
mc 41,8 usd/m2/thng i vi v tr trung tm. M hnh c s a ra mc gi trung bnh
30usd/m2/thng i vi vn phng cho thu hng B (gn khu trung tm ti chnh, thng
mi). Gi s gi cho thu vn phng gim theo bc nhy 5$/m2 so vi m hnh c s. Kt
qu chy nhy i vi gi cho thu vn phng i vi cc ch tiu ti chnh c trnh
by ti Bng 5.4.
Bng 5.4 S thay i ca gi thu vn phng nh hng n quyt nh u t
Gi thu vn phng
(USD/m2/thng)
IRR d n, thc
IRR ch u t, thc
IRR d n, d/ngha
IRR ch u t, d/ngha
NPV d n (t ng)
NPV ch u t (t ng)

30

25,0

20,0

15

10

1,9

25,1%

23,2%

21,1%

18,5%

15,6%

11,9%

8,4%

30,2%

27,9%

25,3%

22,2%

18,6%

13,9%

9,3%

35%

33,1%

30,7%

28,0%

24,9%

20,8%

17,1%

40,6%

38,1%

35,3%

32,0%

28,1%

23,0%

18,0%

1100,6

891,6

684,6

477,8

281,2

101,6

-4,6

1116,2

907,1

700,1

493,3

296,7

117,2

0,0

Kt qu chy nhy cho thy, nu cc yu t khc khng i, gi thu vn phng t c

nh hng n quyt nh u t. V kh nng mc gi 1,9 usd/m2/thng (mc gi ny
lm cho NPV ca ch u t =0) l rt kh xy ra. Biu 5.4 cho thy nu gi cho thu
vn phng l 5$/m2/thng th NPV ca ch u t vn nhn gi tr hn 100 t ng. Mc
gi cho thu thp m NPV vn dng, chng t doanh thu d n c ti tr t vic bn
cn h.

36

Gi cho thu vn phng v NPV ch u t

NPV Ch u t (t ng)

1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
0

10

15

20

25

30

35

Gi thu vn phng (USD/m2/thng)

Biu 5.4 Gi cho thu vn phng v NPV

- Kt qu chy nhy i vi chi ph xy dng.

i vi mt d n xy dng, chi ph xy lp lun c nh hng n quyt nh u t.
Mc d phn chi ph xy dng c iu chnh gi vo thi im u t bng cch phn
tch s bin ng ca ch s gi nhm ngnh vt liu xy dng trong 3 thng u nm 2010
nhng gi vt liu xy dng c th bin ng ln hn. nh hng ca chi ph xy dng
n cc ch tiu ti chnh c trnh by ti Bng 5.5.
Bng 5.5 Chi ph xy dng nh hng n quyt nh u t

Mc bin ng gi xy dng

16%

50%

100%

150%

127%

IRR d n, thc

25,12%

16,75%

10,28%

6,66%

8,84%

IRR ch u t, thc

30,17%

19,43%

11,01%

6,69%

9,26%

IRR d n, danh ngha

35,13%

26,09%

19,10%

15,20%

17,55%

IRR ch u t, danh ngha

40,58%

28,99%

19,89%

15,23%

18,00%

NPV d n (t ng)

1100,63

768,48

262,90

-251,72

87,75

NPV ch u t (t ng)

1010,27

791,22

295,32

-326,52

0,00

37

Bng 5.5 cho thy, mc bin ng gi vt liu xy dng tng t l nghch vi NPV v
MARR ca nh u t. Vi mc tng gi xy dng 127% th NPV ca nh u t = 0 v
IRR danh ngha ca ch u t = MARR. Mc tng gi 16% l da vo mc bin ng
gi nhm vt liu xy dng nm 2010 so vi nm 2009, theo m hnh phn tch ban u.
Khi mc gi vt liu xy dng tng 150% th IRR ch u t ch t 15,23% v VBH thit
hi 251,7 t ng. Thc t, mc tng gi ca chi ph xy dng s khng qu 50%/nm nn
vi cc yu t khc khng i, gi xy dng khng nh hng n quyt nh u t thc
hin d n. Tc ng ca mc tng gi xy dng ln NPV ch u t c th hin qua
Biu 5.5.

Mc tng gi xy dng v NPV ch u t

1200
1000

NPV ch u t

800
600
400
200
0
200

16%

50%

100%

129%

150%

Mc tng gi xy dng (%)

400

Biu 5.5 Mc tng gi xy dng n NPV ch u t

- Kt qu chy nhy i vi lm pht.

Mc lm pht c nh hng ti NPV ch u t. Vi mc lm pht t 5% n 15% vi
bc nhy bng 1 th NPV ca ch u t c xu hng tng. Nguyn nhn l m hnh c
s cho doanh thu t vic bn cn h v cho thu vn phng tng u theo mc gi c
iu chnh theo lm pht, nhng chi ph u t trong 3 nm l chi ph c nh, v VBH ch
gp vn bng t lin doanh thc hin d n cng TECCO nn VBH khng quan tm
n tc ng ca lm pht ln cc khon chi ph u t ban u. Cc khon chi ph vn

38

hnh, bo tr, qun l ca d n th ph thuc vo dng doanh thu v chim t l kh nh

trong dng tin doanh thu d n. Khi doanh thu tng th cc khon chi vn hnh, bo tr,
qun l mi tng theo t l, nn lm pht tng s lm tng doanh thu hn l tng cc khon
chi ph bo tr, qun l, vn hnh v chi ph u t ban u. Mi tng quan gia t l lm
pht ni a v NPV ch u t c th hin qua Biu 5.6.
T l lm pht ni a v NPV ch u t

1080

NPV ch u t (t ng)

1060
1040
1020
1000
980
960
940
5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

14%

15%

T l lm pht (%)

Biu 5.6 Lm pht Vit nam v NPV ch s hu

- Kt qu chy nhy ng thi gi bn cn h v gi cho thu vn phng ln NPV ca

ch u t.
Trn thc t, gi bn cn h v gi cho thu vn phng c th cng ng thi tng hoc
gim do ngun cung v cu ca th trng bt ng sn quyt nh. V kt qu chy
nhy mt chiu cho thy gi bn cn h v gi cho thu vn phng t c kh nng lm cho
NPV ch u t nh hn 0, tr kh nng gi bn cn h nh hn 3,1 triu ng/m2 v gi
cho thu vn phng nh hn 1,9 $/m2/thng, nn gi nh trong trng hp ny l ng
thi gi bn cn h v gi cho thu vn phng u gim so vi m hnh c s. Mc gim
gi bn cn h l 1 triu ng/m2 v mc gim gi cho thu vn phng l 3 usd/m2. Kt
qu chy nhy 2 chiu c trnh by ti Bng 5.6.

39

Bng 5.6 ng thi gim gi cho thu v gi bn cn h v NPV ch u t

(n v tnh NPV: t ng)

Gi cho thu VP
(usd/m2)

Gi bn cn h (triu ng/m2)
30
27
24
21
18
15
13,1
10,5
7,7

14

13

12,00

11

10

10,42

9,2

8,0

1010,27
895,49
781,21
667,65
554,10
440,77
370,58
277,85
185,18

917,57
802,79
688,52
574,96
461,41
348,09
277,94
185,23
92,59

824,88
710,10
595,83
482,28
368,72
255,42
185,29
92,62
0,00

732,18
617,40
503,15
389,59
276,04
162,74
92,65
0,00
-92,59

639,48
524,70
410,46
296,90
183,35
70,07
0,00
-92,62
-185,17

678,73
563,95
449,70
336,15
222,60
109,31
39,23
-53,40
-145,97

569,39
454,61
340,38
226,83
113,28
0,00
-70,04
-162,64
-255,17

456,10
341,32
227,11
113,55
0,00
-113,26
-183,27
-275,82
-368,32

Kt qu chy nhy trn cho thy, vi mc cho thu vn phng 7,7 $/m2/thng v gi
bn cn h 12 triu ng/m2, mc cho thu vn phng 10,5 $/m2/thng v gi bn cn h
11 triu ng/m2 hoc mc cho thu vn phng 13,1 $/m2/thng v gi bn cn h 10 triu
ng/m2 th NPV ch u t s = 0. Trn thc t cc mc gi cho thu vn phng <12
$/m2/thng v gi bn cn h 11 triu ng/m2 t c kh nng xy ra trn th trng bt
ng sn TP. HCM i vi khu chung c, cn h cho thu hng B.
Chy Crystal Ball phn tch m phng gi cho thu vn phng nh hng n quyt
nh u t, nu p dng gi t theo gi ca nh nc, c th hin Ph lc 11.
Vi 10.000 ln th, nu bin u vo l gi cho thu vn phng thay i trong phm vi d
bo, mc gi trung bnh l 30$/m2/thng, m hnh la chn gi c phn phi chun v mc
gi bin ng 2 chiu, lch chun =3, mc tin cy 95%, th ti a NPV ch u t c
gi tr 1455,4 t ng v thp nht l 562,1 t. NPV ca d n nhn gi cao nht 1587,24
t ng v thp nht l 610,52 t ng. Xc sut NPV ca ch u t > 1000 t ng l
50% v xc sut NPV d n > 1000 t l 70%. Trong mi trng hp, NPV >0 v IRR
> MARR nn y l mt d n kh thi v mt ti chnh.
Nu gi t c tnh theo gi th trng th vi phn tch Crystal Ball, NPV > 0 vi xc
sut 90% v ln hn 200 t l 70%. IRR danh ngha ca d n > MARR mc 90%. Kt
qu chy Crystall Ball i vi gi thu vn phng khi gi t tnh theo gi th trng c
trnh by ti Ph lc 12.

40

5.3 Kt lun v mc ri ro
25

Sau khi phn tch ri ro v nhy i vi gi bn cn h, tc tng gi bn cn h, gi

cho thu vn phng, chi ph xy dng v mc lm pht cho thy, gi bn cn h gn
nh khng c tc ng n quyt nh u t ca VBH v vi gi ln hn 3,1 triu
ng/m2 th NPV > 0 v IRR > MARR. Gi cho thu vn phng v phi ph xy dng cng
t c nh hng lm cho NPV < 0 v IRR < MARR, v kh nng mc gi 1,9
usd/m2/thng hoc mc chi ph xy dng tng 1,29 ln l rt kh xy ra. Xc sut xy
ra 2 trng hp trn l gn nh bng 0. Nu ng thi c gi bn cn h v gi cho thu
vn phng u gim th ch khi vi mc cho thu vn phng 7,7 $/m2/thng v gi bn cn
h 12 triu ng/m2, mc cho thu vn phng 10,5 $/m2/thng v gi bn cn h 11 triu
ng/m2 hoc mc cho thu vn phng 13,1 $/m2/thng v gi bn cn h 10 triu ng/m2
th NPV ch u t s < 0. Trn thc t cc mc gi cho thu vn phng <13 $/m2/thng v
gi bn cn h 11 triu ng/m2 t c kh nng xy ra. Mc lm pht trong nc khng nh
hng trc tip n quyt nh u t v doanh thu t vic bn cn h v cho thu vn
phng tng u theo mc gi c iu chnh theo lm pht, nhng chi ph u t trong 3
nm l chi ph c nh, do VBH k hp ng cho n v thi cng TECCO. Nguyn nhn
ca mc gi bn cn h v mc gi cho thu vn phng thp t c kh nng lm cho NPV
ca ch u t <0 l v gi t c nh gi theo Ban ch o 09 l kh thp so vi gi th
trng.
Kt hp phn tch ti chnh v phn tch ri ro cho thy, y l mt d n ng doanh
nghip thc hin. Phn sau, lun vn s tnh ton xem khon tr cp ca nh nc, v tng
th c lm cho nh nc thit hi hay khng.

T cc phn tch kt qu thm nh, phn tch ri ro v d bo mc bin ng ca cc

yu t nh hng trc ti m hnh, c th a ra kt lun rng: VBH nn chuyn i hnh
thc s dng t sang xy dng khu chung c, vn phng cho thu. Xc xut xy ra ri
ro vi i vi gi bn cn h, tc tng gi bn cn h, gi cho thu vn phng, chi ph
xy dng, mc lm pht lm cho NPV =0 gn nh khng c.

41

Chng 6. PHN TCH KINH T - X HI

5

Chng 6 s phn tch cc ngoi tc, tc ng v mt ngn sch v phn phi gia chnh
ph v doanh nghip v cch thc thc hin tnh ton.
6.1 Phn tch kinh t
26

6.1.1 Phn tch h s chuyn i gi ti chnh sang gi kinh t

36

tnh gi kinh t, ta s dng h s chuyn i (CF) t gi ti chnh tr i cc khon ngn

lu v thu. Thu VAT 10% c p dng i vi gi cho thu vn phng, gi bn cn h,
cc khon chi ph vn hnh, bo tr h tng k thut, nn h s chuyn i ca cc mc chi
ph ny l 0.9. T l hng ngoi thng trong chi ph xy dng l 75% - 80%, thu nhp
khu ca vt liu xy dng l 15%, ph thng ngoi hi 10%, do vy h s chuyn i
ca n gi xy dng 1m2 l 0.8. Cc khon chi ph khc bao gm chi ph thit k gim
st, chi ph qun l, chi ph dnh cho ban qun l, chi ph bo him, php l v k ton,
huy ng vn v chi ph h s p dng h s chuyn i l 0.95. H s chuyn i gi
c trnh by Bng 6.1.
Bng 6.1 C s tnh h s chuyn i gi CFi

Khon mc
Gi cho thu vn phng, gi bn

H s CFi

Gii thch

0.9 Thu VAT 10%

cn h, cc khon chi ph vn
hnh, bo tr h tng k thut
Gi t

1 Chi ph c hi ca t = Gi th trng

Chi ph xy lp (xy khi chung

0.8 T l hng ngoi thng trong chi ph

c, h bi, trng hc, ng

xy dng l 75% - 80%, thu nhp khu

ni b, cng vin cy xanh

vt liu xy dng l 15%, ph thng

ngoi hi 10% v thu VAT = 10%

Chi ph thit k gim st, ban

0.9 Thu VAT 10%

qun l, bo him, php l v k

ton, huy ng vn v h s
Chi ph lao ng

1 Ch yu l lao ng ph thng nn
khng phi ng thu thu nhp

42

(Gi kinh t ca lng lao ng = gi

ti chnh ca lng lao ng)
Theo ti liu hng dn phn tch kinh t cc d n, gi t trong phn tch kinh t l gi
th trng v TP. HCM c th trng nh, t pht trin, gi mua v gi thu t c xc
nh trn c s cnh tranh [34].
6.1.2 Phn tch ngoi tc tch cc v tiu cc
37

- Trong khi thc hin d n, gi kinh t ca lao ng bng gi ti chnh v cc cng vic
mang li thu nhp cao phi tnh thu th phi thu chuyn gia theo mc giao khon v
khu tr thu t hp ng, s lng cng vic ny khng nhiu v chim mt phn kh
nh trong chi ph d n.
- Sau khi d n hon thnh, theo quy nh ch u t s phi lp ban qun l v cc t dch
v phc v cho khu cn h chung c v vn phng cho thu. S lng nhn lc lm
vic trc tip khong 100 ngi, trong ring bo v v v sinh cho c khu chung c
khong 60 ngi, 14 ngi lm cng vic bo tr, s cn li lm vic cc v tr iu hnh
chung, k ton, vn phng, k thut v tip tn. Trong thi gian xy lp, d n cn khon
200 cng nhn lm vic thng xuyn trong thi gian hn 2 nm.
Ngoi ra, sau khi d n hon thnh s to ra mt lng vic lm tng thm t cc vn
phng cho thu. D kin cc dch v marketing, kinh doanh hng ha, vn ti s gia tng
khu vc ny.
- D n cng gp phn vo vic nng cao cht lng cuc sng ca dn v gii quyt nhu
cu nh cho thnh ph trong khi lng cu nh ang thiu.
- Mt s ngoi tc tch cc khc nhng khng r rng nh d n s lm cho cuc sng
th tr nn vn minh hn nn d dng thu ht u t nc ngoi hn.
- Ngi dn khu vc d n s c li v gi bt ng sn khu vc c d n s tng ln,
ngi dn quanh d n cng c hng li t cc dch v ti chnh, ngn hng, khu siu
th. Sau khi thc hin d n, mi trng khu vc d n v xung quanh cng s tt hn so
vi khi cha thc hin d n (c s sn xut cng nghip c).
Tuy vy, d n cng c mt s ngoi tc tiu cc, c th l:
- Trong thi gian xy dng, mc d cc n v thi cng c cc bin php ro chn, x l
mi trng khu vc thi cng, nhng khng th trit tiu ht c. Nhng nu d n hon
thnh s ci thin mi trng tt hn nn tc ng v mi trng c th c trit tiu.

43

- Mt s nhn vin ang lm vic cho VBH ti v tr d n cha khi cng c th s phi di
chuyn n ni lm vic xa hn v VBH phi chuyn ton b hot ng v chi nhnh hoc
vo khu cng nghip.
- Vic phn phi hng ha ca VBH trong khu vc ni th s mt nhiu chi ph hn nu
VBH di ri hot ng sn xut kinh doanh i ra ngoi thnh, cc khu cng nghip theo quy
hoch ca thnh ph.
- Trong thi gian xy dng, mt s hot ng sn xut kinh doanh c ca VBH c th s b
nh hng bi cc i tc mong mun giao dch ti ni th hn.
6.1.3 Dng tin kinh t d n
38

Dng tin kinh t ca d n gm cc khon mc ngn lu vo v ngn lu ra. Ngn lu

vo chnh l thu nhp tim nng, trong bao gm khon thu t cho thu vn phng, bn
t cn h, thu ph s dng tng hm, thu ph qun l, vn hnh v bo tr k thut. Ngn
lu ra gm cc khon chi ph: Trch np ph bo tr t hot ng cho thu di hn, trch
np ph bo tr t cn h bn t, ph qun l, vn hnh, ph h tng k thut v cc khon
chi ph c phn b vo hot ng kinh doanh nh ph qun l, php l k ton, tip th
qung co v chi ph h s. Dng tin kinh t d n c trnh by trong phn Ph lc 13.
Xc nh NPV, IRR kinh t
T dng tin ca d n, ta xc nh c ngn lu hot ng rng bng cch ly thu nhp
tim nng tr i tng chi ph vn hnh, qun l, bo tr v thu thu nhp doanh nghip.
Ngn lu rng d n s bng ngn lu hot ng rng tr i chi ph u t. Ngn lu rng
ch u t bng ngn lu rng d n cng vi ngn lu n. T ngn lu rng ca d n v
ca ch u t ta tnh c IRR, NPV kinh t ca ch u t v d n. Kt qu tnh ton
IRR, NPV kinh t c tm tt ti Bng 6.2.
Bng 6.2 NPV, IRR kinh t ca d n

IRR d n, thc
IRR d n, danh ngha
NPV d n

9,28%
18,02%
45,45 t ng

Nh vy, IRR thc ca d n l 8.28% cao hn sut vn thc u t vo d n (8,2%).

IRR danh ngha d n =18,02% > Chi ph vn ca kinh t, mc 12%. V chi ph xy
dng d n gim xung 20% khi v p dng h s chuyn i l 0.8 i vi chi ph xy

44

dng v gim t 10% i vi cc chi ph v thu nn chi ph u t vo d n gim. NPV

kinh t d n l 45,45 t ng chng t d n mang li li ch dng cho nn kinh t. Nn
ng trn quan im nn kinh t th d n nn c thc thi.
6.2 Phn tch tc ng ngn sch
27

Nu khng thc hin d n, nh nc s ch thu c tin s dng t vic cho thu t di

hn. Khon thu duy nht ny liu c ln hn vic nh nc ng BHV chuyn i
mc ch s dng t xy dng chung c, vn phng cho thu hay khng? Hy xem so
snh cc khon thu trc v sau khi chuyn i mc ch s dng t ti Bng 6.3 v 6.4.
Bng 6.3 Cc khon thu v thu, ph t t trc khi c d n
TT Cc khon thu v thu, ph trc d n

NPV (t ng)

Thu nhp t cho thu t

13.36

Ngun: Tc gi tnh ton theo hp ng thu t gia VBH v S Ti nguyn Mi trng

Bng 6.4 Cc khon thu v thu, ph t t sau khi c d n

TT

Cc khon thu t vic chuyn i t

NPV (t ng)

Tng gi tr t, gi nh nc

Tin thu chuyn quyn s dng t, gi nh nc

9.33

Thu t tng kinh doanh tng hm

2.39

Thu t VP cho thu

113.81

Thu t bn cn h

129.78

Thu thu nhp doanh nghip

332.56

Tng thu nh nc thu qua d n

830,39

242.52

R rng l nu xt v mt thu ngn sch a phng, UBND TP. HCM v qun Bnh
Thnh s ng VBH tin hnh chuyn i mc ch s dng t. Khi khng chuyn
i t, UBND TP. HCM ch thu c 13,36 t ng nu gi thu t di hn theo hp
ng 9871/H-TNMT-KKT ngy 16/10/2006 k gia S Ti nguyn Mi trng v
VBH, c p dng cho ton b khu t 24406,1m2 vi gi 47.625ng/m2/nm. Nhng
nu UBND TP. HCM ng chuyn i mc ch s dng t th ngoi ngun thu t vic
bn t theo quy nh ca nh nc (thng qua ban ch o 09) v ngun thu 4% thu
chuyn quyn s dng t th d n xy dng chung c vn phng cho thu Bnh Ha s
mang li cho ngn sch a phng 830,39 t ng tin thu. Chnh lch gia khon thu

45

trc v sau khi chuyn i mc ch s dng t l 817,04 t ng. V vy, d n mang

li hiu qu v mt thu ngn sch. l cha k cc li ch phi sinh t d n nh nng
cao h s s dng t trong pht trin th ngi dn c iu kin thc hin np sng
vn minh, di ri cc c s cng nghip tp trung ti khu cng nghip, theo ng quy hoch
ca thnh ph.
Khon chnh lch 817,04 t ng > khon tr cp 716,83 t ng, nu nh nc tnh gi
t theo gi th trng. Khon chnh lnh ny c gi tr 100,21 t kh nh so vi gi tr
nh nc tr cp. Nhng, xt v mt ngn sch, nh nc vn c li. By gi lp lun
rng: Nu mc gi t m VBH c mua l gi th trng th VBH c ng chuyn i
mc ch s dng t hay khng? Cu tr li l c. V theo m hnh phn tch ti chnh,
doanh nghip vn c li nhun v chu mc ri ro kh thp. Nn thc cht, nh nc b
thit mt khon thu ngn sch v t ch khng phi c li t khon chnh lch gia
cc khon thu v thu kha v khon tin thu cho thu t.
6.3 Phn tch tc ng phn phi.
28

Tc ng phn phi gia chnh ph v doanh nghip trong d n Bnh Ha c trnh by

ti Bng 6.5.
Bng 6.5 Tc ng phn phi gia chnh ph v doanh nghip

NPV
ti chnh
Ngn lu vo
Doanh thu rng
Ngn lu ra
Chi ph qun l, bo tr, vn hnh
Thu thu nhp doanh nghip
Chi ph u t
NPV d n

NPV
kinh t

2271,27

1975,78

146,36
332,56
1356,84
435,51

98,49
0,00
1831,84
45,45

Chnh
ph

Doanh
nghip

-295,49
-47,87
-332,56
37,07

475,00
-427,13

Theo Bng 6.5, xt trn ton nn kinh t ni chung, nh nc s c li 37,07 t nu

VBH chuyn i mc ch s dng t u t vo d n Bnh Ha. VBH s b thit 427,13
t. Nguyn nhn l do gi kinh t ca t c tnh theo mc gi th trng cao lm cho
chi ph u t ca d n theo gi kinh t ln hn chi ph u t ca d n theo gi ti
chnh.

46

Tm li, d n s to ra ngoi tc tch cc i vi tng th nn kinh t v to ra mc thu

chnh lch ngn sch 817,04 t ng, nhng cng lm cho chnh ph mt khon thu v t
khong 716,8 t v doanh nghip l ngi c hng li t chnh sch chuyn i t,
mc hng li chnh bng mc chnh ph mt i nu khng tnh gi t theo gi th
trng, v doanh nghip c ng c chuyn i mc ch s dng t ngay c khi nh
nc tnh gi t theo gi th trng, tc l doanh nghip khng cn n khon tr cp
ngm t pha nh nc.

47

Chng 7. KT LUN V KIN NGH

6

T nhng phn tch trn ta thy, d n hon ton kh thi v mt ti chnh v kinh t, hp
vi ch trng v c thnh ph khuyn khch thc hin. So vi vic cho thu t, nu
VBH chuyn i mc ch s dng t th s lm tng ngn sch mt khon 817,04 t
ng, gii quyt vic lm cho hn 300 lao ng trong thi gian thc hin (thi gian thi
cng) v gn 100 lao ng lm vic di hn (Ban qun l), ng thi d n cng gp phn
lm p m quan, nng cao cht lng sng cho ngi dn thnh ph.
V d n kh thi v mt ti chnh v kinh t nn nh nc khng phi h tr thm g. Cc
khon h tr li sut cho chng trnh xy dng nh ca thnh ph khng b nh hng
d n. D n khng phi n b gii ta nn khng tnh n ngoi tc tiu cc i vi
ngi dn phi di ri, gii ta. V di hn, nhng ngi xung quanh khu vc d n s
c li do tc ng tch cc cc hot ng cho thu thng mi, to vic lm v gia tng
gi t, gi mt bng kinh doanh.
Phn tch cng cho thy rng c doanh nghip v nh nc u c li khi doanh nghip
chuyn i mc ch s dng t. Khi thc hin d n s mang li cho ch u t 1110,6
t ng, mang li ngun thu cho ngn sch hn 800 t ng, ln hn nhiu ln so vi
khon thu tin cho thu t di hn.
Nh nc nn ng chuyn i mc ch s dng t v nhng li ch t thu ngn sch,
hp vi ch trng quy hoch, lm tng thm v p m quan th v nng cao h s s
dng t, tn dng pht trin th theo chiu ng, ng thi to ra vic lm cho ngi
lao ng.
Nu nh nc ng cho php doanh nghip chuyn i mc ch s dng t theo hnh
thc mua li t theo gi nh nc (Ban ch o 09) th nh nc s thit hi khon thu
ngn sch 716,8 t ng.
Nu nh nc ng cho php doanh nghip chuyn i mc ch s dng t theo hnh
thc mua li t theo gi th trng th nh nc v doanh nghip vn c li, nn doanh
nghip vn sn lng u t vo d n trn v nh nc khng phi tr cp thm g.

48

Lun vn khuyn ngh rng, nh nc nn t chc u thu rng ri i vi cc d n

chuyn i mc ch s dng t t t cho thu di hn sang lnh vc xy dng chung c,
vn phng cho thu. V nhng khu t ny thng c din tch ln, nm v tr trung tm
nn c gi tr ln. Doanh nghip no thng thu s phi tr li chi ph cho n v lp d n
u t v nh vy mi khuyn khch cc doanh nghip lp d n u t chuyn i mc
ch s dng t. Chi ph lp h s u t d n khng ln nu so vi khon thu gp c
trm ln m nh nc nhn c.
D n khng tnh n ngoi tc tiu cc v mi trng trong thi gian thi cng v cho rng
ngoi tc ny s b trit tiu v sau khi c d n mi trng s c ci thin hn so vi
trc v khu t lm d n l c s sn xut cng nghip. Mc d khi thi cng, ch u
t d n s phi thc hin ng cc quy nh v mi trng nhng nh nc cn phi gim
st nhng nh hng ca mi trng trong qu trnh thi cng ny hn ch ngoi tc tiu
cc.
Kt lun tm tt, tr li cho cc cu hi nghin cu:
- Cng ty c phn Bnh Ha (VBH) nn chuyn i mc ch s dng t u t d n
Bnh Ha, xy dng khu chung c, vn phng cho thu.
- UBND TP. HCM c ng c tch cc cho php cho php VBH chuyn i mc ch
s dng t.

49

TI LIU THAM KHO

[1]

Ngh quyt s 22/2002/NQ-H ngy 29 thng 6 nm 2002 ca HND TP. HCM.

[2]

Quyt nh s 80/2002/Q-UB ngy 08 thng 7 nm 2002 ca UBND TP. HCM

[3]

http://www.thesaigontimes.vn/Home/thoisu/doisong/11839/

[4]

Quyt nh 4159/Q-UBND ngy 14/09/2006 ca UBND TP. HCM v vic tip

tc cho VBH s dng t.

[5]

Hp ng thu t s 9871/H-TNMT-KKT ngy 16/10/2006 ca S Ti

nguyn Mi trng..

[6]

Lut t ai, nc Cng ha XHCN Vit nam 2003, iu 38.

[7]

Ngh nh 198/2004/N-CP ngy 03 thng 12 nm 2004 ca Chnh ph v thu

tin s dng t.

[8]

Bn t chc khng gian kin trc cnh quan ca Khu t hp chung c, vn

phng v thng mi dch v Bnh Ha ca Cng ty C phn T vn thit k xy
dng th, nm 2009.

[9]

http://www.forecast-chart.com/forecast-inflation-rate.html

[10]

Nguyn Tn Bnh, Phn tch hot ng doanh nghip, NXB HQG TP HCM,
2003, trang 299.

[11]

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright - Tp bi ging mn Phn tch phn

tch ti chnh, nm 2009.

[12]

Glenn P.Jenkins, Arnold C.Harberger, (1995), Phn tch chi ph v li ch cho cc

quyt nh u t, Harvard university, trang 9 n 13.

[13]

Quyt nh s 2554/Q-TCCB ngy 08/8/2005 ca B trng B Cng nghip

(nay l B Cng thng) v vic chuyn i Cng ty TNHH 1 thnh vin in t
Bnh Ha thnh Cng ty C phn in t Bnh Ha.

[14]

Vn bn s 49/UBND-QLT ca UBND qun Bnh Thnh ti ngy 13/01/2009

v vic m bo t gio dc trong quy hoch ca qun.

[15]

http://vietbao.vn/The-gioi-giai-tri/Thieu-can-ho-dien-tich-nho/50789802/411

[16]

Sut vn u t xy dng cng trnh 2009, B Xy dng ban hnh theo quyt
nh 411/Q-BXD ngy 31/3/2010.

50

[17]

Quyt nh 410/Q-BXD ngy 31/3/2010 ca B Xy dng v vic cng b ch

s gi xy dng nm 2009.

[18]

http://vneconomy.vn/2010012111041111P0C19/chi-so-gia-tieu-dung-thang12010-tang-136.htm

[19]

http://203.162.71.77:808/vn/thongtinnganh/48620/index.aspx

[20]

http://vneconomy.vn/20100324012725770P0C19/cpi-thang-3-tang-075-bao-hieurui-ro-lam-phat.htm

[21]

n ngh cung cp tha thun quy hoch kin trc ca VBH gi S Quy
hoch kin trc ngy 22/8/2008.

[22]

Giy chng nhn quyn s dng t ti Quyt nh 4159/Q-UBND ngy

14/9/2006 ca UBND TP. HCM.

[23]

Bo co CBRE qu 3/2009, qu 4/2009 v qu 1/2010.

[25]

Tng cu v cn h ti TP HCM trong giai on 2010 2011, xem ti

http://www.vietrees.com/index.php?navi=home

[26]

Bo co u t cc d n: Qun 2, Qun 12, Linh ng (HCM); C1 Quang trung,

Vinh Tn (Ngh An) do Tecco u t v thi cng.

[27]

http://vietnamnet.vn/kinhte/200912/Mong-chua-xong-nha-da-ban-885579

[28]

Thng t 01/2009/TT-BXD ca B Xy dng quy nh mt s ni dung v cp

giy chng nhn quyn s hu nh v hng dn mu hp ng mua bn cn
h nh chung c trong d n u t xy dng ca t chc kinh doanh nh .

[29]

http://diaoc.tuoitre.vn/Index.aspx?ArticleID=355810&ChannelID=204

[30]

http://www.vtc.vn/bvntd/156-246887/the-gioi-tieu-dung/lai-suat-huy-dong-tiengui-tai-ngan-hang-vuot-115nam.htm

[31]

http://www.dothi.net/news/tin-tuc/thi-truong/2010/03/3b9aee56/ (tp hp s liu

ca CBRE)

[32]

S liu d bo lm pht Vit nam ca Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), 2009.

[33]

Gi bn cn h Linh ng- Th c, TECCO cung cp

[34]

ADB (Asian Developing Bank), (1997), Hng dn phn tch kinh t cc d n,

trang 22 24.

51

PH LC

Ph lc 1. Thng tin u vo d n
Ph lc 2. Hp ng thu t
Ph lc 3. Thit k, quy hoch chi tit d n Bnh Ha
Ph lc 4. Tin xy dng khu chung c
Ph lc 5. Chi ph vn hnh, qun l v bo tr (t ng)
Ph lc 6. Lch tr n (t ng)
Ph lc 7. Lch khu hao (t ng)
Ph lc 8. Bo co thu nhp ti chnh (t ng)
Ph lc 9. Doanh thu ti chnh d n (t ng)
Ph lc 10. Ngn lu ti chnh (t ng)
Ph lc 11. Kt qu chy Crystal Ball gi bn cn h, gi t tnh theo gi nh nc
Ph lc 12. Kt qu chy Crystal Ball i vi gi bn cn h, gi t l gi th trng
Ph lc 13. Ngn lu kinh t d n (t ng)

52

Ph lc 1. Thng tin u vo d n
Nm
n v
t l
t l

Lm pht trong nc
Lm pht nc ngoi
Ch s gi trong nc
Ch s gi nc ngoi
T gi VND/USD 1/10/2010

2010
0

8%
2,54%
1,00
1,00
18544

t l

Gi tr t
m2

Din tch t
Gi thu t

VND/m /nm
2

Tin thu t

tVND/m /nm
2

Gi t trn th trng, N Trang Long

triuVND/m

Din tch t chy theo hm N Trang Long

H s mua t ng N Trang Long
Thu chuyn quyn s dng t/gi tr t
Tin thu chuyn quyn s dng t, gi NN
Tng gi tr t, theo Q nh nc, trc khi chuyn i
Tng gi tr t, theo Q nh nc, sau khi chuyn i
Quy hoch xy
dng (m2)
Khi A, block1
block2
block3
Khi B, block1
block2
Khi C, block1
block2
H bi
Trng hc
Cng vin cy
xanh, trng hc

24,418,5
2

S t
xy
S tng
dng
995
15
1400
20
600
18
1487
15
647
20
524
15
1097
20
863
1
1,100,0
2
15,705,5

S tng
cho thu
di hn
2
2
2
2
2
2
2

1,16
37,777
24,418,500
1,0
4%
9,33
233,20
242,52

t l
tVND
tVND
tVND

S tng
cn h
bn
13
18
16
13
18
13
18

47,625

S sn xy
dng (m2)
14925
28000
10800
22305
12940
7860
21940
863
2200
15705,5

Sut vn
u t (triu
ng/m2)
5730
7180
6450
5730
7180
5730
7180
8540
2000

53

Din tch sn xy dng block

H s din tch xy dng/din tch cn h

m2
t l

Din tch sn cn h:

m2

103278,26

11739,13

Din tch sn cn h cho thu (2 tng)

Din tch sn cn h bn

118770
1,15

91539,13
2

Ph qun l, vn hnh
2 Block cho thu + Tng hm cho thu
Cho thu di hn
Tng Hm, Giao khon BQL

VND/m /nm

Tng din tch tng hm cho thu, di hn

Ph gi xe t
Ph gi xe my
Tng thu ph xe t
Tng thu ph xe my
T l thu t bn ngoi
D kin thu ph khch vng lai
Tng thu t tng hm
Tc tng/gim gi cho thu thc
Thi gian tr trc
Tax
Tng VP cho thu
S tng cho thu, di hn

m2
trVND/thng/chic
trVND/thng/chic
trVND/thng
trVND/thng
t l
trVND/thng
trVND/thng
t l
thng
t l

Din tch 1 tng cho thu, di hn

Tng din tch cho thu cn h di hn
Gi cho thu cn h (bao gm ph QL v VAT)
Gi cho thu cn h(bao gm ph QL v VAT)
Gi cho thu cn h
Tc tng/gim gi cho thu thc
Tax
Trch np bo tr
Tr trc (thi gian)
Cho thu ngn hn
Tng VP cho thu
S tng cho thu, ngn hn
Din tch 1 tng cho thu, ngn hn
Tng din tch cho thu cn h, ngn hn
Gi cho thu cn h (cha bao gm ph QL)
Gi cho thu cn h
Gi cho thu cn h
Tc tng/gim gi cho thu thc

n v

60000

9,188,2
0,85
0,1
108,8
25,4
50%
67,1
201,3
12
10%
2

5869,57

11739,13
2

USD/m /thng
2

VND/m /thng
2

trVND/m /nm
t l
t l
t l
thng

n v

30
556320
6,676
10%
2%
12

5869,57

0,00
2

USD/m /thng
2

VND/m /thng
2

trVND/m /nm
t l

24,7
458036,8
5,496

54

T l lp y phng
Thu
Trch np bo tr
Tr trc (thi gian)

t l
t l
t l
thng

10%
2%
3

Ta nh cn h, bn t
Tng din tch sn cn h bn
Tc tng/gim gi bn thc

m2
t l

Gi bn cn h (gm Tax, ph giao dch)

Din tch sn bn ra
Ph giao dch qua sn
Thu
Ph bo tr/gi bn
T l % np tin nm 2011
T l % np tin nm 2012
T l % np tin t nm 2013 tr i
Thu t bn cn h 2011 (cha tax)
Thu t bn cn h 2012 (cha tax)
Thu t bn cn h 2013 (cha tax)
Tng thu t bn cn h (cha tax)
Thu t bn cn h 2011 ( tr 10% tax)
Thu t bn cn h 2012 ( tr 10% tax)
Thu t bn cn h 2013 ( tr 10% tax)
Tng thu t bn cn h ( tr tax)
Chi ph
7 Block
Chi ph xy dng

trVND/m2
t l
t l
t l
t l
t l

91539,1

tVND
tVND
tVND
tVND
tVND
tVND
tVND

14
1%
10%
2%
0%

0
0,00

0,00

tVND

1008,681
2

Chi ph ngoi tht/din tch sn cn h

Chi ph Ban qun l/chi ph xy dng
Chi ph ngoi tht
Chi ph Ban qun l
Tng chi ch xy dng ta nh
ng ni b, cy xanh, sn TDTT
Tng CP c s h tng:
Tng hm (Chi ph tnh theo pp sut vn u t)

trVND/m
tVND
tVND
tVND
tVND
tVND
tVND

Tng din tch sn s dng

Din tch s dng
H s iu chnh (tng hm) min
H s iu chnh (tng hm) max
H Bi

m2
t l

Chi ph xy dng h bi
Tng chi ph xy dng h bi
Trng hc

000VND/m2
tVND

0,30
1%
35,631
10,09
1,054,398
36,45
36,45
10,209,1
90%
1,1
1,13
9,911,0
8,55

55

Chi ph xy dng trng mu gio

S lng hc sinh
Tng chi ph xy dng trng hc
Chi ph khc (theo tnh ton ca Bnh Ha), cha thu
Thit k, gim st
Qun l ph (Ban qun l)
T vn ti chnh
Bo him
Chi ph php l v k ton
Chi ph tip th qung co
Huy ng vn
Chi ph h s
D phng tng chi ph/tng chi ph u t
Lch u t
Xy dng block
H bi
Trng hc
ng ni b, cy xanh, sn TDTT
Chi ph khc
Thit k, gim st
Qun l ph (Ban qun l)
T vn ti chnh
Bo him
Chi ph php l v k ton
Chi ph tip th qung co
Huy ng vn
Chi ph h s

1000VND/hs
hc sinh

27,75
300

tVND

8,325

t l
t l
t l
t l
t l
t l
t l

2,00%
1,00%
1,00%
1,00%
0,10%
1,00%
2,00%
2,76%
10%

t l

0%
0%
0%
0%

5%
0%
0%
0%

50%
0%
0%
0%

45%
100%
100%
100%

0%
0%
50%
0%
5,0%
0,0%
0%
5%

0%
5%
50%
100%
35%
50%
0%
70%

80%
50%
0%
0%
30%
30%
100%
5%

20%
45%
0%
0%
30%
20%
0%
20%

Khu hao ng thng

Thi gian khu hao cng trnh xy dng
Thi gian khu hao chi ph mm
Thi gian phn b chi ph mm vo chi ph kinh doanh
Vn ch s hu (so vi tng vn)
Vn vay (so vi tng vn)
Li sut tin gi 1 nm, danh ngha
Chnh lch
Li sut cho vay danh ngha
Li sut cho vay thc
Tng s nm m hp ng cho vay
S nm li nhp gc (=nm thc hin d n, cha c thu)
S nm n hn tr n gc
S nm tr u n gc

nm
nm
nm
t l
t l
t l
t l
t l
t l
nm
nm
nm
nm
tr u

25
25
3

11,50%
3,5%
15,0%
5,80%
5
3
0
2

56

N gc
Chi ph hot ng
Chi ph hnh chnh/Thu nhp cho thu
Ph qun l chung (BQL)/Thu cho thu
Chi ph bo tr 2block cho thu/Thu nhp cho thu
Chi tip th qung co/thu nhp cho thu
Tr li vay
Thu sut VAT
Thu sut thu thu nhp doanh nghip

Lch chi ph u t
Xy dng block
H bi
Trng hc
ng ni b, cy xanh, sn TDTT
Tng chi ph xy lp
Chi ph khc
Thit k, gim st
Qun l ph (Ban qun l)
T vn ti chnh
Bo him
Chi ph php l v k ton
Chi ph tip th qung co
Huy ng vn
Chi ph h s
Tng chi ph u t khng k d phng
Chi ph d phng
Tng chi ph u t, cha tnh li vay

Tng hp chi ph u t
t ai
Xy dng block
H bi
Trng hc
ng ni b, cy xanh, sn TDTT
Chi ph khc
Thit k, gim st
Qun l ph (Ban qun l)
T vn ti chnh
Bo him
Chi ph php l v k ton
Chi ph tip th qung co

t l
t l
t l
t l
t l
t l
t l

5,0%
10,0%
10,0%
2,0%
15,0%
10,0%
25,0%

tVND
tVND
tVND
tVND
tVND

1,054,398
8,55
8,33
36,45
1107,73

tVND
tVND
tVND
tVND
tVND
tVND
tVND
tVND
tVND
tVND
tVND

22,15
11,08
11,08
11,08
1,11
11,08
22,15
30,57
1228,03
122,80
1593,36

tVND
tVND
tVND
tVND
tVND

2010
242,52
0
0
0
0

tVND
tVND
tVND
tVND
tVND
tVND

0
0
6,09
0
0,06
0

2011

2012

2013

57,99 579,92
0
0
0
0
0
0

521,9
9,41
9,16
40,10

0
0,61
6,09
12,19
0,43
6,09

19,50
6,09
0
0,00
0,37
3,66

4,87
5,48
0
0
0,37
2,44

57

Huy ng vn
Chi ph h s
Ngn lu chi ph u t
u t ban u, chi ph mm (thuc vn ch
s hu)
Pht hnh c phn huy ng vn cho d n
Tng vn ch s hu
Thu t khc hng
Vn vay

Vn vay
E, tnh c t
re, danh ngha
re, thc
Vn ch s hu
WACC, danh ngha
WACC, thc
Li vay
Tng mc u t

tVND
tVND
t l
t l
tVND
t l
t l
tVND
tVND

tVND
tVND
tVND

0
0 24,37
1,68 23,54
1,68
250,36 106,94 635,58

0
6,73
600,5

tVND
tVND
tVND
tVND
tVND

250,36
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
250,36
0,00
0,00
0,00 100,37 257,20
0,00
6,57 378,38

0,00
0,00
0,00
617,9
0,00

384,95
1208,41
18%
9.26%
1593.36
17.28%
8.59%
65.30
1658.66

58

Ph lc 2. Hp ng thu t

59

60

61

Ph lc 3. Thit k, quy hoch chi tit d n Bnh Ha

62

Ph lc 4. Tin xy dng khu chung c

Ph lc 2. Hp ng thu t

Nm 2010
Nm 2011
Nm 2012
T10 T11 T12 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T10 Khi cng T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T10 T11 T12
Th tc: t, xin u t, PCCC, in nc, nh gi mi trng, thit k, khi cng...
XD Mng&Hm
XD 50% phn th
5%
20%
30%
30%
30%
65%

Nm 2013
T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T10 T11 T12
XD 50% phn th
Cnh quan, hon thin, giy t
40%
5%
35%
5%
30%
5%
100%

63

Ph lc 5. Chi ph vn hnh, qun l v bo tr (t ng)

Chi ph vn hnh, qun l, bo tr

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

Trch np ph bo tr cho B.Ql

20,24

5,11

1,70

1,98

2,08

2,19

2,30

2,41

2,53

2,66

2,79

1,20

1,44

1,70

1,98

2,08

2,19

2,30

2,41

2,53

2,66

2,79

19,04

3,67

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

Ph bo tr h tng k thut

26.19

3.67

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Chi ph mm trong thi gian thc hin

19,74

19,74

19,74

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Tng chi ph vn hnh, qun l, bo tr

72.36

34.72

27,64

8,18

8,28

8,39

8,49

8,61

8,73

8,86

8,99

Trch np bo tr t cho thu di hn

Trch np bo tr t cn h bn t
Np ph qun l, vn hnh

Chi ph vn hnh, qun l, bo tr

2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Trch np ph bo tr cho B.Ql

2,93

3,08

3,23

3,39

3,56

3,74

3,93

4,13

4,33

4,55

4,78

5,02

5,27

5,53

Trch np bo tr t cho thu di hn

2,93

3,08

3,23

3,39

3,56

3,74

3,93

4,13

4,33

4,55

4,78

5,02

5,27

5,53

Trch np bo tr t cn h bn t

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Np ph qun l, vn hnh

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

Ph bo tr h tng k thut

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Chi ph mm trong thi gian thc hin

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Tng chi ph vn hnh, qun l, bo tr

9,13

9,28

9,43

9,59

9,76

9,94 10,13 10,32 10,53 10,75 10,97 11,21 11,46

11,73

64

Ph lc 6. Lch tr n (t ng)
Lch n vay

2010 2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

D n u k

0,00

0.00

6.57 385.37

410.35

205.18

Gii ngn n

0,00

6.57 378.38

0.00

Li nhp gc trong thi gian xy dng

0.43

24.98

Tr li

26.60

13.30

Tr n gc

205.18

205.18

Tr li v n gc

231.77

218.47

6.57 385.37 410.35

205.18

0.00

D n cui k
Ngn lu n

0,00

6.57 378.38

0.00 -231.77 -218.47

65

Ph lc 7. Lch khu hao (t ng)

Lch khu hao

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Khu hao cng trnh xy dng

48,74

48,74

48,74

48,74

48,74

48,74

48,74

48,74

48,74

48,74

48,74

48,74

3,94

3,94

3,94

3,94

3,94

3,94

3,94

3,94

3,94

3,94

3,94

3,94

1317,02

1264,34

1211,66

1158,98

1106,29

1053,61

1000,93

948,25

895,57

842,89

790,21

737,53

52,68

52,68

52,68

52,68

52,68

52,68

52,68

52,68

52,68

52,68

52,68

52,68

1264,34

1211,66

1158,98

1106,29

1053,61

1000,93

948,25

895,57

842,89

790,21

737,53

684,85

Khu hao chi ph mm

Gi tr ti sn c nh u k
Khu hao
Gi tr ti sn c nh cui k

Lch khu hao

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Khu hao cng trnh xy dng

48,74

48,74

48,74

48,74

48,74

48,74

48,74

48,74

48,74

48,74

48,74

48,74

48,74

3,94

3,94

3,94

3,94

3,94

3,94

3,94

3,94

3,94

3,94

3,94

3,94

3,94

684,85

632,17

579,49

526,81

474,13

421,45

368,76

316,08

263,40

210,72

158,04

105,36

52,68

52,68

52,68

52,68

52,68

52,68

52,68

52,68

52,68

52,68

52,68

52,68

52,68

52,68

632,17

579,49

526,81

474,13

421,45

368,76

316,08

263,40

210,72

158,04

105,36

52,68

0,00

Khu hao chi ph mm

Gi tr ti sn c nh u k
Khu hao
Gi tr ti sn c nh cui k

66

Ph lc 8. Bo co thu nhp ti chnh (t ng)

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2,39

2,39

2,39

2,39

2,39

2,63

2,63

2,63

2,63

2,63

2,89

60,01

72,01

85,07

99,25

104,21

109,42

114,89

120,63

126,66

133,00

139,65

333,98

183,69

0,00

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

28,56

5,51

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

431,14

269,80

93,66

107,83

112,80

118,25

123,72

129,46

135,49

141,83

148,74

20,24

5,11

1,70

1,98

2,08

2,19

2,30

2,41

2,53

2,66

2,79

1,20

1,44

1,70

1,98

2,08

2,19

2,30

2,41

2,53

2,66

2,79

19.04

3.67

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Np ph qun l, vn hnh

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

Ph bo tr h tng k thut
Chi ph mm trong thi
gian thc hin
Tng chi ph vn hnh, qun l,
bo tr

28,56

5,51

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

19,74

19,74

19,74

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

72.36

34.72

27,64

8,18

8,28

8,39

8,49

8,61

8,73

8,86

8,99

Doanh thu
1. Cho thu di hn
Tng hm, tr tax
VP cho thu, tr tax
2. Cho thu ngn hn
VP cho thu, tr tax
3. Cn h bn t

100,37

257,20

617,91

Ph qun l, vn hnh
Ph bo tr h tng k thut
(thu 1 ln)
Thu nhp tim nng

0,00

100,37

257,20

617,91

Chi ph
Chi ph vn hnh, qun l, bo
tr
Trch np ph bo tr cho
B.Ql
Trch np bo tr t cho
thu di hn
Trch np bo tr t cn h
bn t

Chi ph t

0,00
242.52

0,00

0,00

0,00

67

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2,89

2,89

2,89

2,89

3,18

3,18

3,18

3,18

3,18

3,50

3,50

3,50

3,50

3,50

146,63

153,96

161,66

169,74

178,23

187,14

196,50

206,32

216,64

227,47

238,85

250,79

263,33

276,49

Doanh thu
1. Cho thu di hn
Tng hm, tr tax
VP cho thu, tr tax
2. Cho thu ngn hn
VP cho thu, tr tax

0
0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

155,72

163,05

170,75

178,83

187,61

196,52

205,88

215,70

226,02

237,17

248,54

260,49

273,03

286,19

2.82

2.96

3.11

3.27

3.43

3.60

3.78

3.97

4.17

4.38

4.60

4.83

5.07

53.94

2.82

2.96

3.11

3.27

3.43

3.60

3.78

3.97

4.17

4.38

4.60

4.83

5.07

53.94

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Np ph qun l, vn hnh

6.20

6.20

6.20

6.20

6.20

6.20

6.20

6.20

6.20

6.20

6.20

6.20

6.20

62.82

Ph bo tr h tng k thut
Chi ph mm trong thi gian thc

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

hin

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Tng chi ph vn hnh, qun l, bo tr

9.02

9.16

9.31

9.46

9.63

9.80

9.98

10.17

10.37

10.57

10.79

11.02

11.26

116.76

3. Cn h bn t
Ph qun l, vn hnh
Ph bo tr h tng k thut (thu 1
ln)
Thu nhp tim nng
Chi ph
Chi ph vn hnh, qun l, bo tr
Trch np ph bo tr cho B.Ql
Trch np bo tr t cho thu di
hn
Trch np bo tr t cho thu
ngn hn
Trch np bo tr t cn h bn
t

Chi ph t

68

Thu nhp d n, tr VAT

- Khu hao
Li nhun trc li vay v thu
(EBIT)
- Li vay
Li nhun trc thu (EBT)

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

-242,52

100,37

257,20

617,91

356,41

233,24

66,02

99,65

104,51

109,86

115,22

120,85

126,76

132,97

139,75

-52,68

-52,68

-52,68

-52,68

-52,68

-52,68

-52,68

-52,68

-52,68

-52,68

-52,68

-242,52

100,37

257,20

617,91

303,73

180,56

13,34

46,97

51,83

57,18

62,54

68,17

74,08

80,29

87,07

-26,60

-13,30

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-242,52

100,37

257,20

617,91

277,13

167,26

13,34

46,97

51,83

57,18

62,54

68,17

74,08

80,29

87,07

-223,76

-41,82

-3,33

-11,74

-12,96

-14,29

-15,64

-17,04

-18,52

-20,07

-21,77

53,37

125,45

10,00

35,23

38,88

42,88

46,91

51,13

55,56

60,22

65,30

- Tax TNDN
NI

-242,52

100,37

257,20

617,91

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Thu nhp d n, tr VAT

146,59

153,78

161,32

169,24

177,85

186,58

195,75

205,38

215,49

226,42

237,57

249,27

261,56

274,46

- Khu hao
Li nhun trc li vay v thu
(EBIT)

-52,68

-52,68

-52,68

-52,68

-52,68

-52,68

-52,68

-52,68

-52,68

-52,68

-52,68

-52,68

-52,68

-52,68

93,91

101,10

108,64

116,56

125,17

133,90

143,07

152,70

162,81

173,74

184,89

196,59

208,88

221,78

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

93,91

101,10

108,64

116,56

125,17

133,90

143,07

152,70

162,81

173,74

184,89

196,59

208,88

221,78

-23,48

-25,27

-27,16

-29,14

-31,29

-33,48

-35,77

-38,17

-40,70

-43,44

-46,22

-49,15

-52,22

-55,45

70,43

75,82

81,48

87,42

93,88

100,43

107,30

114,52

122,11

130,31

138,67

147,44

156,66

166,34

- Li vay
Li nhun trc thu (EBT)
- Tax TNDN
NI

69

Ph lc 9. Doanh thu ti chnh d n (t ng)

Doanh thu

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

1. Cho thu di hn
Tng hm, tr VAT

2,39

2,39

2,39

2,39

2,39

2,63

2,63

2,63

2,63

2,63

2,89

VP cho thu, tr tax

60,01

72,01

85,07

99,25

104,21

109,42

114,89

120,63

126,66

133,00

139,65

333,98

183,69

0,00

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

28,56

5,51

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

617,91

431,14

269,80

93,66

107,83

112,80

118,25

123,72

129,46

135,49

141,83

148,74

2. Cn h bn t

100,37

257,20

617,91

Ph qun l, vn hnh
Ph bo tr h tng k thut (thu 1 ln), 3%
Thu nhp tim nng

Doanh thu

0,00

100,37

257,20

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Tng hm, tr VAT

2,89

2,89

2,89

2,89

3,18

3,18

3,18

3,18

3,18

3,50

3,50

3,50

3,50

3,50

VP cho thu, tr tax

146,63

153,96

161,66

169,74

178,23

187,14

196,50

206,32

216,64

227,47

238,85

250,79

263,33

276,49

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

6,20

1. Cho thu di hn

2. Cn h bn t
Ph qun l, vn hnh
Ph bo tr h tng k thut, 3%
Thu nhp tim nng

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

155,72

163,05

170,75

178,83

187,61

196,52

205,88

215,70

226,02

237,17

248,54

260,49

273,03

286,19

70

Ph lc 10. Ngn lu ti chnh (t ng)

Ngn lu vo

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2274,19

0,0

100,4

257,2

617,9

431,1

269,8

93,7

107,8

112,8

118,2

123,7

129,5

135,5

141,8

148,7

149,28

0,0

0,0

0,0

0,0

74,7

36,6

27,6

8,2

8,3

8,4

8,5

8,6

8,7

8,9

9,0

Thu TNDN

-332,56

0,0

0,0

0,0

0,0

-223,8

-41,8

-3,3

-11,7

-13,0

-14,3

-15,6

-17,0

-18,5

-20,1

-21,8

Ngn lu hot ng rng

2457,47

0,0

100,4

257,2

617,9

580,2

275,1

69,4

111,4

117,5

124,2

130,9

137,9

145,3

153,0

161,5

Chi ph u t

1356,84

250,4

106,9

635,6

600,5

0,0

0,0

0,0

0,0

0,0

0,0

0,0

0,0

0,0

0,0

0,0

Ngn lu rng d n

1100,63

-250,4

-6,6

-378,4

17,4

580,2

275,1

69,4

111,4

117,5

124,2

130,9

137,9

145,3

153,0

161,5

1116,2

-250,4

0,0

0,0

17,4

348,4

56,6

69,4

111,4

117,5

124,2

130,9

137,9

145,3

153,0

161,5

Thu nhp tim nng

NPV

Ngn lu ra
Tng chi ph vn hnh, qun l, bo tr

Ngn lu rng ch u t

Ngn lu vo

NPV

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2274,19

155,7

163,1

170,8

178,8

187,6

196,5

205,9

215,7

226,0

237,2

248,5

260,5

273,0

286,2

149,28

9,1

9,3

9,4

9,6

9,8

9,9

10,1

10,3

10,5

10,7

11,0

11,2

11,5

11,7

Thu TNDN

-332,56

-23,5

-25,3

-27,2

-29,1

-31,3

-33,5

-35,8

-38,2

-40,7

-43,4

-46,2

-49,1

-52,2

-55,4

Ngn lu hot ng rng

2457,47

170,1

179,1

188,5

198,4

209,1

220,1

231,5

243,6

256,2

269,9

283,8

298,4

313,8

329,9

Chi ph u t

1356,84

0,0

0,0

0,0

0,0

0,0

0,0

0,0

0,0

0,0

0,0

0,0

0,0

0,0

0,0

Ngn lu rng d n

1100,63

170,1

179,1

188,5

198,4

209,1

220,1

231,5

243,6

256,2

269,9

283,8

298,4

313,8

329,9

1116,2

170,1

179,1

188,5

198,4

209,1

220,1

231,5

243,6

256,2

269,9

283,8

298,4

313,8

329,9

Thu nhp tim nng

Ngn lu ra
Tng chi ph vn hnh, qun l, bo tr

Ngn lu rng ch u t

0,00

71

Ph lc 11. Kt qu chy Crystal Ball gi bn cn h, gi t tnh theo gi nh nc

Run preferences:
Number of trials run
Extreme speed
Monte Carlo
Random seed
Precision control on
Confidence level
Run statistics:
Total running time (sec)
Trials/second (average)
Random numbers per sec
Crystal Ball data:
Assumptions
Correlations
Correlated groups
Decision variables
Forecasts

10.000

95,00%

4,60
2.172
2.172

1
0
0
0
6
Forecasts

Worksheet:
[VBH.xls]PtTaichinhThuc_VoiLPhat
Forecast: IRR ch u t, danh ngha
Summary:
Entire range is from 34,74% to 45,21%
Base case is 40,58%
After 10.000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 0,01%

72

Statistics:
Trials
Mean
Median
Mode
Standard Deviation
Variance
Skewness
Kurtosis
Coeff. of Variability
Minimum
Maximum
Range Width
Mean Std. Error

Forecast
values
10.000
40,53%
40,59%
--1,42%
0,02%
-0,1898
3,09
0,0350
34,74%
45,21%
10,48%
0,01%

Forecast: IRR ch u t, danh ngha (cont'd)

Forecast
Percentiles:
values
0%
34,74%
10%
38,68%
20%
39,36%
30%
39,80%
40%
40,21%
50%
40,59%
60%
40,93%
70%
41,30%
80%
41,72%
90%
42,32%
100%
45,21%
Forecast: IRR ch u t, thc
Summary:
Entire range is from 24,75% to 34,46%
Base case is 30,17%
After 10.000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 0,01%

73

Statistics:
Trials
Mean
Median
Mode
Standard Deviation
Variance
Skewness
Kurtosis
Coeff. of Variability
Minimum
Maximum
Range Width
Mean Std. Error

Forecast
values
10.000
30,12%
30,17%
--1,31%
0,02%
-0,1898
3,09
0,0436
24,75%
34,46%
9,70%
0,01%

Forecast: IRR ch u t, thc (cont'd)

Forecast
Percentiles:
values
0%
24,75%
10%
28,41%
20%
29,04%
30%
29,45%
40%
29,83%
50%
30,17%
60%
30,49%
70%
30,83%
80%
31,22%
90%
31,78%
100%
34,46%
Forecast: IRR d n, danh ngha
Summary:
Entire range is from 30,28% to 39,04%
Base case is 35,13%
After 10.000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 0,01%

74

Statistics:
Trials
Mean
Median
Mode
Standard Deviation
Variance
Skewness
Kurtosis
Coeff. of Variability
Minimum
Maximum
Range Width
Mean Std. Error

Forecast
values
10.000
35,09%
35,14%
--1,19%
0,01%
-0,1766
3,09
0,0339
30,28%
39,04%
8,76%
0,01%

Forecast: IRR d n, danh ngha (cont'd)

Percentiles:
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%

Forecast
values
30,28%
33,55%
34,11%
34,49%
34,83%
35,14%
35,43%
35,73%
36,09%
36,59%
39,04%

Forecast: IRR d n, thc

Summary:
Entire range is from 20,6% to 28,7%
Base case is 25,1%
After 10.000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 0,0%

75

Statistics:
Trials
Mean
Median
Mode
Standard Deviation
Variance
Skewness
Kurtosis
Coeff. of Variability
Minimum
Maximum
Range Width
Mean Std. Error

Forecast
values
10.000
25,1%
25,1%
--1,1%
0,0%
-0,1766
3,09
0,0439
20,6%
28,7%
8,1%
0,0%

Forecast: IRR d n, thc (cont'd)

Percentiles:
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%

Forecast
values
20,6%
23,7%
24,2%
24,5%
24,8%
25,1%
25,4%
25,7%
26,0%
26,5%
28,7%

Forecast: NPV ch u t
Summary:
Entire range is from 662,42 to 1573,80
Base case is 1116,17
After 10.000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 1,25

76

Statistics:
Trials
Mean
Median
Mode
Standard Deviation
Variance
Skewness
Kurtosis
Coeff. of Variability
Minimum
Maximum
Range Width
Mean Std. Error

Forecast
values
10.000
1115,84
1116,73
--125,36
15714,57
0,0097
3,02
0,1123
662,42
1573,80
911,39
1,25

Forecast: NPV ch u t (cont'd)

Percentiles:
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%

Forecast
values
662,42
954,97
1011,03
1048,64
1084,08
1116,70
1147,87
1180,92
1220,18
1277,16
1573,80

Forecast: NPV d n
Summary:
Entire range is from 646,88 to 1558,26
Base case is 1100,63
After 10.000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 1,25

77

Statistics:
Trials
Mean
Median
Mode
Standard Deviation
Variance
Skewness
Kurtosis
Coeff. of Variability
Minimum
Maximum
Range Width
Mean Std. Error

Forecast
values
10.000
1100,30
1101,19
--125,36
15714,57
0,0097
3,02
0,1139
646,88
1558,26
911,39
1,25

Forecast: NPV d n (cont'd)

Percentiles:
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%

Forecast
values
646,88
939,43
995,49
1033,10
1068,54
1101,16
1132,33
1165,38
1204,64
1261,62
1558,26

End of Forecasts
Assumptions

Worksheet:
[VBH.xls]PtTaichinhThuc_VoiLPhat
Assumption: USD/m2/thng
Bao cao Quy3/2009 cua CBRE
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
30,00
Std. Dev.
3,00

End of Assumptions

78

Ph lc 12. Kt qu chy Crystal Ball i vi gi bn cn h, gi t l gi th trng

Run preferences:
Number of trials run
Extreme speed
Monte Carlo
Random seed
Precision control on
Confidence level
Run statistics:
Total running time (sec)
Trials/second (average)
Random numbers per sec
Crystal Ball data:
Assumptions
Correlations
Correlated groups
Decision variables
Forecasts

10.000

95,00%

3,32
3.011
3.011

1
0
0
0
6
Forecasts

Worksheet:
[VBH.xls]PtTaichinhThuc_VoiLPhat
Forecast: IRR ch u t, danh ngha
Summary:
Entire range is from 16,66% to 23,58%
Base case is 20,56%
After 10.000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 0,01%

79

Statistics:
Trials
Mean
Median
Mode
Standard Deviation
Variance
Skewness
Kurtosis
Coeff. of Variability
Minimum
Maximum
Range Width
Mean Std. Error

Forecast
values
10.000
20,52%
20,56%
--0,92%
0,01%
-0,2228
3,06
0,0449
16,66%
23,58%
6,92%
0,01%

Forecast: IRR ch u t, danh ngha (cont'd)

Percentiles:
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%

Forecast
values
16,66%
19,31%
19,76%
20,07%
20,33%
20,56%
20,79%
21,03%
21,30%
21,67%
23,58%

Forecast: IRR ch u t, thc

Summary:
Entire range is from 8,02% to 14,43%
Base case is 11,63%
After 10.000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 0,01%

80

Statistics:
Trials
Mean
Median
Mode
Standard Deviation
Variance
Skewness
Kurtosis
Coeff. of Variability
Minimum
Maximum
Range Width
Mean Std. Error

Forecast
values
10.000
11,59%
11,63%
--0,85%
0,01%
-0,2228
3,06
0,0736
8,02%
14,43%
6,41%
0,01%

Forecast: IRR ch u t, thc (cont'd)

Percentiles:
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%

Forecast
values
8,02%
10,47%
10,88%
11,18%
11,42%
11,63%
11,85%
12,06%
12,31%
12,66%
14,43%

Forecast: IRR d n, danh ngha

Summary:
Entire range is from 16,56% to 23,06%
Base case is 20,23%
After 10.000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 0,01%

81

Statistics:
Trials
Mean
Median
Mode
Standard Deviation
Variance
Skewness
Kurtosis
Coeff. of Variability
Minimum
Maximum
Range Width
Mean Std. Error

Forecast
values
10.000
20,19%
20,22%
--0,87%
0,01%
-0,2227
3,06
0,0429
16,56%
23,06%
6,50%
0,01%

Forecast: IRR d n, danh ngha (cont'd)

Percentiles:
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%

Forecast
values
16,56%
19,05%
19,47%
19,77%
20,01%
20,22%
20,44%
20,66%
20,92%
21,27%
23,06%

Forecast: IRR d n, thc

Summary:
Entire range is from 7,9% to 13,9%
Base case is 11,3%
After 10.000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 0,0%

82

Statistics:
Trials
Mean
Median
Mode
Standard Deviation
Variance
Skewness
Kurtosis
Coeff. of Variability
Minimum
Maximum
Range Width
Mean Std. Error

Forecast
values
10.000
11,3%
11,3%
--0,8%
0,0%
-0,2227
3,06
0,0710
7,9%
13,9%
6,0%
0,0%

Forecast: IRR d n, thc (cont'd)

Percentiles:
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%

Forecast
values
7,9%
10,2%
10,6%
10,9%
11,1%
11,3%
11,5%
11,7%
12,0%
12,3%
13,9%

Forecast: NPV ch u t
Summary:
Entire range is from -83,87 to 822,65
Base case is 365,19
After 10.000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 1,23

Forecast

83

Statistics:
Trials
Mean
Median
Mode
Standard Deviation
Variance
Skewness
Kurtosis
Coeff. of Variability
Minimum
Maximum
Range Width
Mean Std. Error

values
10.000
364,29
364,54
--123,29
15201,58
-0,0052
2,96
0,3385
-83,87
822,65
906,51
1,23

Forecast: NPV ch u t (cont'd)

Percentiles:
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%

Forecast
values
-83,87
204,04
259,73
300,63
334,57
364,53
396,69
429,18
467,42
521,28
822,65

Forecast: NPV d n
Summary:
Entire range is from -100,82 to 805,70
Base case is 348,24
After 10.000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 1,23

84

Statistics:
Trials
Mean
Median
Mode
Standard Deviation
Variance
Skewness
Kurtosis
Coeff. of Variability
Minimum
Maximum
Range Width
Mean Std. Error

Forecast
values
10.000
347,34
347,58
--123,29
15201,58
-0,0052
2,96
0,3550
-100,82
805,70
906,51
1,23

Forecast: NPV d n (cont'd)

Percentiles:
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%

Forecast
values
-100,82
187,09
242,78
283,68
317,62
347,58
379,74
412,23
450,46
504,33
805,70

End of Forecasts
Assumptions

Worksheet:
[VBH.xls]PtTaichinhThuc_VoiLPhat
Assumption: USD/m2/thng
Bao cao Quy3/2009 cua CBRE
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
30,00
Std. Dev.
3,00

End of Assumptions

85

Ph lc 13. Ngn lu kinh t d n (t ng)

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

0.0

90.3

231.5

556.1

377.0

240.0

83.3

95.9

100.3

105.0

109.8

114.9

120.2

125.9

131.9

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

52.0

14.6

8.5

7.4

7.5

7.5

7.6

7.7

7.9

8.0

8.1

959.35

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

-959.35

81.1

499.7

479.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Chi ph u t

-965.0

9.3

-268.2

76.8

325.1

225.4

74.8

88.6

92.8

97.4

102.2

107.1

112.4

117.9

123.8

Ngn lu rng d n

-965.0

9.3

-9.3

76.8

169.3

78.6

74.8

88.6

92.8

97.4

102.2

107.1

112.4

117.9

123.8

Ngn lu vo
Thu nhp tim nng
Ngn lu ra
Tng chi ph vn hnh, qun l, bo tr
Chi ph mua t
Ngn lu hot ng rng

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

138.1

144.6

151.5

158.7

166.4

174.4

182.7

191.6

200.8

210.6

220.8

231.5

242.8

254.6

8.2

8.3

8.5

8.6

8.8

8.9

9.1

9.3

9.5

9.7

9.9

10.1

10.3

10.6

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

129.9

136.3

143.0

150.1

157.6

165.4

173.6

182.3

191.3

200.9

210.9

221.4

232.4

244.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

129.9

136.3

143.0

150.1

157.6

165.4

173.6

182.3

191.3

200.9

210.9

221.4

232.4

244.0

Ngn lu vo
Thu nhp tim nng
Ngn lu ra
Tng chi ph vn hnh, qun l, bo tr
Chi ph mua t
Ngn lu hot ng rng
Chi ph u t
Ngn lu rng d n