Chng 8.

QL Ri ro

CHNG 8. Qun l Ri ro D n.
Mc ch.
Hiu c ri ro l g v tm quan trng ca vic qun l tt ri ro d n Hiu c qui trnh Qun l Ri ro. M t quy trnh phn tch v nhng cng c k thut gip nhn bit nhng ri ro d n Cung cp nhng Phng php s dng trong Qui trnh Qun l ri ro. M t phn mm c th h tr trong vic qun l ri ro d n.

8.1. Tm Quan trng ca Qun l ri ro. o Qun l ri ro d n l mt ngh thut v nhng nhn bit khoa hc, l nhim v, v s i ph vi ri ro thng qua hot ng ca mt d n v nhng mc tiu i hi quan trong nht ca d n o Qun l ri ro thng khng c ch trong cc d n, nhng n li gip ci thin c s thnh cng ca d n trong vic gip chn la nhng d n tt, xc nh phm vi d n, v pht trin nhng c tnh c tnh thc t o Mt nghin cu ca Ibbs v Kwak ch ra vic qun l ri ro khng khoa hc nh th no, c bit l trong nhng d n cng ngh thng tin o Nghin cu ca KPMG cho thy 55% cc d n ng bng sn bay khng ch trng trong vic qun l ri ro. 8.2. Qui trnh Qun l Ri ro. Th no l ri ro? Mt t in nh ngha v ri ro l s mt mt hoc tn thng c th xy ra Ri ro d n lin quan ti s thu hiu nhng vn tim tng pha trc c th xut hn trong d n m chng s cn tr s thnh cng ca d n ra sao Mc ch ca vic qun l ri ro d n l gim ti thiu kh nng ri ro trong khi tng ti a nhng c hi tim nng. Nhng tin trnh chnh bao gm: Lp K hach qun l ri ro: quyt nh tip cn v hach nh nhng cng vic qun l ri ro cho d n nh th no Nhn bit ri ro: xc nh yu t ri ro no nh hng ti mt d n v ti liu v nhng c im ca chng Phn tch tnh cht ri ro: c im, phn tch ri ro u tin xem xt nhng nh hng ca chng ti mc tiu ca d n Phn tch mc ri ro: xem xt kh nng c th xy ra v hu qu ca nhng ri ro K hoch i ph ri ro: thc hin nhng bc cao nhng c hi v ct gim bt nhng mi e do p ng nhng mc tiu ca d n. Gim st v kim sot ri ro: gim st ri ro pht hin, nhn bit ri ro mi, ct gim ri ro, v nh gi hiu qu ca vic ct gim ri ro.
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Chng 8. QL Ri ro

8.2.1. Lp K hach qun l ri ro. Thnh vin trong d n nn xem xt cc ti liu ca d n v nm c nguy c dn ti ri ro ca nh ti tr ca cng ty Mc chi tit s thay i nhng yu cu ca d n
Bng 1. Cc cu hi cn cp trong k hoch qun l ri ro. Ti sao iu quan trng l c/khng tnh ri ro ny trong mc tiu D n? Ci g l ri ro c th, v cc kt xut v ngn chn ri ro? Ri ro ny c th ngn chn nh th no? Nhng ai l c trch nhim v thc hin k hoch ngn chn ri ro? Khi no th hin ra cc mc chnh trong cc tip cn ri ro? Cn nhng ti nguyn g, ti u ngn chn ri ro?

Trong Lp K hach ri ro, cn phi c thm K hach d phng, K hach rt lui, Qu d phng: K hoch d phng (i ph nhng bt ng) l nhng hot ng xc nh trc m thnh vin ca d n s thc hin nu mt s kin ri ro xut hin K hoch rt lui c thc hin cho nhng ri ro c tc ng ln ti nhng yu cu mc tiu ca d n Qu d phng (bt ng) hay tin tr cp c gi bi nh ti tr v c th dng gim nh chi ph hay ri ro lch biu nu c nhng s thay i v phm vi hay cht lng Mt s nghin cu cho thy nhng d n cng ngh thng tin phi gnh chu mt s ri ro ph bin : Nhm Standish Group pht trin bng im tim nng thnh cng ca cc d n CNTT da trn cc ri ro tim nng, theo Bng sau y :
Bng 2. Bng im tim nng thnh cng ca d n CNTT Tiu chun thnh cng im Ngi s dng vo cuc 19 Lnh o H tr QL 16 Pht biu r rng cc yu cu 15 Lm k hoch ph hp 11 Mong i thc t 10 Cc mc chnh ca d n khim tn hn 9 i ng NV c nng lc 8 Quyn s hu 6 Mc tiu v tm nhn sng t 3 Chi lm vic nng- NV tp trung 3 100 Tng

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Chng 8. QL Ri ro

Cng ty McFarlan pht trin mt h thng thm d ri ro gip nh gi ri ro, chng hn qua Bng thm d sau y:
Bng 3. Bng Thm d ca Cng ty McFarlan

1. Thi gian d kin thc hin. a. Di 12 thng b. T c. Trn 2. S Ngy cng d kin. a. 12 n 375. b. 375 n 1875. c. 1875 n 3750 d. Trn 3750 3. S Phng Ban li n quan (kh ng k IT) a. 1 b. 2 c. 3 hay nhiu hn 4. Yu cu Phn cng cho D n. a.

Thp = 1 Va = 2 Cao = 3 Thp = 1 Va = 2 Va = 2 Cao = 3 Thp = 1 Va = 2 Cao = 3

Mt s phm tr ri ro khc gip nhn bit nhng ri ro tim tng: Ri ro th trng: Sn phm mi s hu ch cho cng ty hay c th tiu th n cc cng ty khc? V liu ngi tiu dng c chp nhn sn phm hay dch v khng? Ri ro ti chnh: Liu cng ty c iu kin thc hin d n? C phi d n ny l cch tt nht s dng ngun ti chnh ca cng ty? Ri ro cng ngh: Liu d n c kh thi v mt k thut? Liu cng ngh ny c li thi trc khi mt sn phm c sn xut? 8.2.2. Nhn bit ri ro.

Nhn bit ri ro l quy trnh nm bt nhng g khng tho mn tim tng t bn ngoi lin quan ti mi d n. Mt s cng c v k thut Nhn bit ri ro bao gm: Pht huy tr tu dn ch (Brainstorming). K thut Delphi. Phng vn (Interviewing) Phn tch Mnh-Yu-Thi c-Nguy c (SWOT=Strong-WeakOpportunity-Threats) 8.2.3.

Phn tch tnh cht ri ro (nh tnh).

nh gi kh nng c th xy ra v tc ng ca ri ro xc nh quy m v u tin. Cng c v k thut lng tnh v ri ro gm:

o Ma trn Xc sut/Tc ng.

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Chng 8. QL Ri ro

o K thut theo di 10 danh mc ri ro hng u

Mc Ri ro Lp K hoch Khng ph Xc nh phm vi km Thiu s Lnh o/Ch o c tnh Chi ph cha c tnh Thi gian km
XP HNG

TNG THNG 3 3

Tin hnh Gii quyt Ri ro.

1 2

2 3

Xem li k hoch
Hp vi Khch hng & Nh ti tr lm r hn v phm

vi
3 4 5 1 4 5 2 3 3 B nhim NV QL D n mi thay th Xem li c tnh chi ph Xem li cc c tnh Lch biu

nh gi ca chuyn gia. Nhiu cng ty da vo trc gic v kinh nghim ca cc chuyn gia gip trong vic nhn bit xu th ca ri ro d n. Cc chuyn gia c th phn loi ri ro nh cao, va, hay thp dng nhng k thut tinh vi hay tm thng

8.2.4.

Phn tch mc ri ro (nh lng).

Thng thng theo sau vic phn tch tnh cht ri ro, nhng c hai khu ny c th thc hin ng thi hoc tch ri. Nhng d n quy m, phc tp lin quan ti cng ngh tin tin thng i hi phn tch mc phm vi rng ln. K thut chnh gm : o Phn tch dng cy quyt nh (Deision tree analysis). Cy quyt nh l mt phng php dng biu gip bn chn la hnh ng tt nht trong cc tnh hung kt qu tng lai l khng chc chn. MV l mt dng cy quyt nh gip tnh ton gi tr EMV ca mt quyt nh da trn xc sut s kin ri ro v gi tr k vng tin t. Ta c th d sau :

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Chng 8. QL Ri ro

o M phng (simulation). M phng dng m hnh ca mt h thng phn tch hnh vi mong ch hay hot ng ca h thng. Phng php Monte Carlo m phng kt qu ca mt m hnh nhiu ln cung cp mt phn b thng k ca nhng kt qu tnh ton 8.2.5. K hoch i ph ri ro. Sau khi nhn bit mc ri ro, bn phi quyt nh i ph nh th no. Ta c 4 chin lc chnh: o Trnh ri ro: loi tr m cc r rng mi e da hay ri ro, thng loi tr nguyn nhn o Chp nhn ri ro: chp nhn kt qu nu ri ro xy ra o Thuyn chuyn ri ro: lun phin hu qu ri ro v giao trch nhim qun l cho bn th ba. o Gim nh ri ro: vic gim bt nh hng mt s kin ri ro bng vic ct gim nhng g c th khi s c xy ra. 8.2.6. Gim st v kim sot ri ro. o Gim st v kim sot ri ro lin quan ti vic hiu bit tnh trng ca chng o Kim sot ri ro lin quan n vic thc hin k hoch qun l ri ro khi chng xy ra o Kt qu chnh ca vic gim st v kim sot ri ro l iu chnh hot ng, yu cu thay i d n, cp nht nhng k hoch mi o Kim sot i ph ri ro lin quan n vic chp hnh nhng quy trnh qun l ri ro v k hoch ri ro i ph vi nhng s kin ri ro. o Ri ro phi c kim sot c bn theo c im tng giai on c th, c s quyt nh i vi nhng ri ro v c chin lc lm gim nh ri ro
8.3. 8.4. Dng Phn mm Qun l Ri ro. Cu hi.

1. Khi cp n k hoch qun l ri ro cn phi xt n cc yu t no? 2. Cc ngun ri ro ph bin trong cc d n CNTT. 3. S khc bit gia k thut brainstorm v Delphi trong vic xc nh cc ri ro. u im v nhc im ca mi k thut. 4. Trnh by cch s dng cy quyt nh (decision tree) v phng php Monte Carlo i vi cc ri ro nh lng. Cho v d v cch s dng mi k thut cho d n CNTT. 5. Lit k cc cng c v k thut theo di v kim sot ri ro. 6. Cch s dng Microsoft Project v Excel h tr qun l ri ro d n.

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Chng 8. QL Ri ro

8.5.

BI TP.

1. Tm kim trn Internet cc phn mm v qun tr ri ro. u im v nhc im khi s dng nhng phn mm ny. Vit bo co 2 trang v t nht 3 phn mm loi ny. 2. Mt cng ty c 4 d n tham gia d thu. Thng tin v mi d n c trnh by trong bng di y. V biu v tnh gi tr EMV cho mi d n. Vit vi trang m t d n no bn s tham gia thu. D n D n 1 D n 2 C hi thng thu 50% 50% 30% 40% 30% D n 3 D n 4 70% 30% 30% 30% 20% 20% c lng li nhun 120.000$ -50.000$ 100.000$ 50.000$ -60.000$ 20.000$ -5000$ 40000$ 30000$ 20000$ -50000$

3. Tm v d v cng ty c ri ro cao trong mt d n CNTT v thnh cng, v mt cng ty c ri ro cao v tht bi. Tng kt v rt ra kt lun v hai d n ny.

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Chng 8. QL Ri ro

T KHA - KEY TERMS.

o o o o K HACH D PHNG (CONTINGENCY PLANS) Nhng hnh ng m nhm d n s thc hin nu c ri ro xy ra (predefined actions that the project team will take if an identified risk event occurs). K thut DELPHI Cch tip cn a ti mt s ng thun trong mt Hi ng cc chuyn gia v trnh mt s lch lac c th c (An approach used to derive a consensus among a panel of experts, to make predictions about future developments). EMV (EXPECTED MONETARY VALUE) (the product of the risk event probability and the risk events monetary value). S NH HNG (INFLUENCE DIAGRAMS) s biu din cc bi tan quyt nh bng cch hin th cc phn t ch yu, bao gm cc quyt nh, khng chc chn, mc tiu v cch nh hng ln nhau gia cc yu t (diagrams that represent decision problems by displaying essential elements, including decisions, uncertainties, and objectives, and how they influence each other). Phn tch MONTE CARLO K thut nh lng ri ro, cung cp mt phn b thng k nhng kt qu tnh tan (a risk quantification technique that simulates or models outcome many times, to provide a statistical distribution of the calculated results). MA TRN XC XUT/NH HNG (PROBABILITY/IMPACT MATRIX or CHART) (a matrix or chart that lists the relative probability of a risk occurring on the other). Phn tch nh tnh Ri ro (QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS) (qualitatively analyzing risks and prioritizing their effects on project objectives). Phn tch nh lng Ri ro (QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS) (measuring the probability and consequences of risks and estimating their effects on project objectives). Nhng ri ro tn d (cn rt li) [RESIDUAL RISKS] risks that remain after all the response strategies have been implemented. RI RO (RISK) (the possibility of loss or injury) Th ght ri ro (RISK AVERSE) having a low tolerance for risk. Trnh n ri ro (RISK AVOIDANCE) eliminating a specific threat or risk, usually by eliminating its causes. BIN C RI RO (RISK EVENTS) specific circumstances that may occur to the detriment of the project. NHN T RI RO (RISK FACTOR) numbers that represent overall risk of specific events, given their probability of occurring and the consequence to the project if they do. Nhn bit ri ro (RISK IDENTIFICATION) determining which risks are likely to affect a project and documenting the characteristics of each. K HACH QL RI RO (RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN) a plan that documents the procedures for managing risk throughout the project. Lp k hach (cho vic) Qun l ri ro (RISK MANAGEMENT PLANNING) deciding how to approach and plan the risk management activities for a project, by reviewing the project charter, WBS, roles and responsibilities, stakeholder risk tolerances, and the organizations risk management policies and plan templates. Lm suy gim ri ro (RISK MITIGATION) reducing the impact of a risk event by reducing the probability of its occurrence. Trung ha cc ri ro/khng b cc ri ro nh hng n (RISK NEUTRAL) (a balance between risk and payoff). Chuyn ha ri ro (RISK TRANSFERENCE) shifting the consequence of a risk and responsibility for its management to a third party. Li ch/ch li ri ro (RISK UTILITY RISK TOLERANCE) the amount of satisfaction or pleasure received from a potential payoff. Ri ro Th cp (SECONDARY RISKS) risks that are a direct result of implementing a risk response. DANH MC 10 RI RO HNG U (TOP TEN RISK ITEM TRACKING) a qualitative risk analysis tool for identifying risks and maintaining an awareness of risks throughout the life of a project. Nhng kch hat (TRIGGERS) Nhng ch dn v cc bin c ri ro tht s (indications for actual risk events). Lm xoay quanh/i vng quanh (WORKAROUNDS) Nhng phn ng khng c d kin trong k hach i vi cc bin c ri ro (unplanned responses to risk events that project teams use when there is no contingency plan in place).

o o o o o o o o o o o o o

o o o o o o o o

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N TP
t ch ci ca cm t thch hp k vo cc m t nh s di y: A. B. C. D. E. F. G. H. I. J. K. L. M. N. O. P. Q. R. ____1. EMV Phn tch Monte Carlo Trung ha cc ri ro/khng b cc ri ro nh hng n (risk neutral) Tm n ri ro (risk seeker) Li ch/ch li ri ro (risk utility) Lm suy gim ri ro (risk mitigation) Trnh n ri ro (risk avoidance) Phn tch nh tnh ri ro (qualitative risk analysis) Phn tch nh lng (quantitative risk analysis.) Nhn bit ri ro (risk identification) Lp k hach (cho vic) Qun l ri ro (risk management planning) Nhng ri ro tn d (cn rt li) (residual risks) Ri ro Th cp (secondary risk) Nhng kch hat (triggers) Lm xoay quanh/i vng quanh (workarounds) Chuyn ha ri ro (risk transference) Th ght ri ro (risk aversion) K thut Delphi.

Bn bm theo cc trin dc xanh (cy c) khi bn trt tuyt nh bn t b ng au. ____2. Bn khng i trt tuyt nn bn khng b ng. ____3. Bn bm theo nhng trin dc xanh, nhng bt thn mt k mi tp lt vn lao vo bn. ____4. Bn thch trt tuyt trn nhng trin dc kim cng en, leo ni, nho ln, lt vn trn khng,.. ____5. Dng a ti mt s ng thun trong mt Hi ng cc chuyn gia v trnh mt s lch lac c th c. ____6. Nhng ch dn v cc bin c ri ro tht s. ____7. K thut nh lng ri ro m cung cp cho ta mt phn b thng k nhng kt qu tnh tan. ____8. Nhng kt qu trong mt s xp u tin cc ri ro. ____9. Nhng phn ng khng c d kin trong k hach i vi cc bin c ri ro. ____10. Qu trnh u tin lin quan n vic Qun l ri ro

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