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PHN TCH NH GI SABECO


Phng u t APHUC IVESTMET
Chuyn vin phn tch: CHU Giang


I/ Tng quan v th trng Bia Vit Nam..................................................................... 2

Th trng c nhiu tim nng pht trin....................................................................................... 2
Th trng Bia tng i tp trung ................................................................................................. 3
Th trng phn khc r nt theo vng, thi quen tiu dng tng loi bia rt kh thay i ........ 3
Th trng Bia c phn khc theo bia sn phm chnh:............................................................. 3
Th trng cnh tranh khc lit....................................................................................................... 3

II/ Phn tch SABECO.................................................................................................. 4

Lnh vc kinh doanh chnh .............................................................................................................. 4
Tm tt lch s hnh thnh .............................................................................................................. 4
C cu t chc................................................................................................................................. 4
nh v sn phm ............................................................................................................................ 6
Th phn ca SABECO...................................................................................................................... 6
Hnh thc phn phi Bia.................................................................................................................. 6
Tnh hnh ti chnh........................................................................................................................... 7

III/ nh gi doanh nghip bng phng php chit khu lung tin FCFD ................ 8

Cch 1: nh gi da trn s liu qu kh ca doanh thu v li nhun ca SABECO................... 8
Cch 2: nh gi da trn s liu d on v sn lng Bia tiu th trong tng lai do SABECO
cung cp............................................................................................................................. 11
Kt qu ca hai phng php nh gi ......................................................................................... 13
Cc tc ng tch cc khc vi gi tr ca c phiu SABECO....................................................... 13
Cc yu t tc ng khc.............................................................................................................. 13
So snh SABECO vi cc cng ty trong ngnh ............................................................................. 14
Nhn nh u t: ......................................................................................................................... 15

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im ni bt ca Tng cng ty Bia ru nc gii kht Si Gn (SABECO)
Dn u v th phn trong th trng Bia Vit nam:vi hn 30 nm hot
ng trong lnh vc Bia ru, Sabeco l cng ty hng u trong lnh vc Bia Vit
nam vi 31% th phn Bia Vit Nam.
Thng hiu ni ting: Nhn hiu Bia Si Gn, Bia lon 333 l hai thng hiu
hng u trong ngnh bia Vit Nam v c bit n rng ri bi ngi tiu dng.
IPO 20% vn iu l tng ng vi 128.257.000 Cp (Vn iu l mi ca
SABECO sau IPO l 641.281.186.000 VN)
I/ Tng quan v th trng Bia Vit Nam
Th trng c nhiu tim nng pht trin
Ngnh bia ru nc gii kht c nh gi l mt trong nhng ngnh c tim
nng tng trng cao. Mc tng trng ny duy tr bnh qun 10.5% v khi lng,
v khong 12% v gi tr trong 5 nm qua v d bo tng trng 9.9% trong cc
nm tip theo
1
. Tim nng ca th trng ny c m bo bi nhng yu t tch
cc sau:
Nn kinh t VN tng trng cao v n nh: GPD ca Vit nam tng trng mc 7-8% trong
vng nhng nm qua. Nm 2007, GPD tng trng vt mc 9%/nm. D bo kinh t VN vn c th duy
tr mc tng trng u ca GDP t 7-8% nm t y n nm 2010. S tng trng ny gip tng thu
nhp c kh nng tiu dng ca ngi dn, trc tip lm tng sc tiu th ca ngi tiu dng.

dn s VN nm trong tui lao ng: hn 80% dn s Vit nam c tui di 40. y
l la tui c nhu cu tiu th ru bia ln nht. iu ny khng nh tim nng pht trin ca th trng
Bia trong tng lai.
Xu hng u ha: vi xu hng ton cu ha v s pht trin nhanh ca nn kinh t, th h
tr Vit nam b nh hng ngy cng mnh bi vn ha tiu dng chu u. iu ny to iu kin thun
li cho cc sn phm bia ru mang tnh Chu u c tim nng pht trin.
Tiu dng Bia chim 89% tng tiu dng trong ngnh Bia ru vi quy m th
trng nm 2006 khong 36 t VN vi tng sn lng Bia c nc t 1.700 triu

1
Ngun Euromonitor Alcoholic Drinks in Vietnam june 2007

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lt. Hin ti, th trng phn chia bi hn 300 doanh nghip ln nh vi hn 400 nh
my tp trung ch yu ti cc thnh ph ln. Cc doanh nghip ny ch yu cung
cp bia cho th trng trong nc, ch s mt s t xut khu sang cc nc ln cn.
Th trng Bia tng i tp trung: ba cng ty hng u trong lnh vc: Sabeco,
Vietnam Brewery (Asia Pacific Breweries-Heineken, Habeco) chim 60% th phn
trong nc, 24% th phn cn li c chim lnh a s bi cc hng bia nc ngoi.
Th trng phn khc r nt theo vng, thi quen tiu dng tng loi bia rt
kh thay i: mi vng a l, thi quen tiu dng v c tnh, s thch ca ngi
tiu dng Vit nam rt khc nhau. V d, H ni th ngi tiu dng quen thuc
hn ht vi sn phm Bia H ni, Hu c nhn hiu bia Huda, Tp.HCM c nhn
hiu bia Si gn. Phn khc th trng Bia r nt theo tng vng dn n kh nng
thm nhp ca th trng ca nhng nhn hiu mi rt kh khn. Hn na, i
tng tiu dng bia ch yu trong la tui 20-55 tui, la tui rt kh thay i thi
quen tiu dng. y chnh l ro cn ln nht trong vic thm nhp vo th trng
bia ca VIt nam.
Th trng Bia c phn khc theo bia sn phm chnh: Bia hi, bia cao cp
(Heinken, Tiger, Amber, Anchor, Saigon Special, 333), bia ph thng (Saigon, Hanoi,
Huda, Laser, BGI).
Bia hi d bo c mc tng trng 13.5%/ nm trong giai on 2006-2011: vi c
im r, ti, bia hi ph hp vi tng lp ngi tiu dng c thu nhp thp, lp ngi tiu dng chim t
trng ln trong dn s Vit nam. Bia hi chim th phn 43% v khi lng, tng ng 30% v gi tr,
tng trng lin tc v khi lng hn 10.9% trong 5 nm va qua v ha hn tng trng hn 13.5%
trong 5 nm tip theo. Th trng bia hi c phn chia bi cc x nghip sn xut bia nh, tuy nhin,
Habeco hin nay ang ng u trong th trng bia hi ti H ni v cc khu vc ln cn.
Bia cao cp chim 12% th phn v khi lng v 20% th phn v gi tr: ng u
dng bia ny l cng ty Lin doanh Vietnam Brewery vi cc nhn sn phm ni ting nh Heineken,
Ambe, Tiger Anchor, sau l cng ty East Asia Brewery vi nhn hiu Carlsberg, v Sabeco vi dng bia
Saigon export, Saigon v 333. Dng bia ny c mc tng trng thp nht trong th trng bia. D
tnh tng trng 8.38% v khi lng trong vng 5 nm ti.
Bia ph thng chim 45% th phn v khi lng v 50% th phn v gi tr: Sabeco
chim th phn ln nht trong phn khc th trng Bia ph thng vi nhn hiu Bia Saigon. Th trng
bia ph thng d tnh s tng trng gn 12% v khi lng trong 5 nm tip theo.
Th trng cnh tranh khc lit: th trng Bia Vit Nam ha hn mc tng
trng mnh trong nhng nm sp ti, y l th trng y mu m i vi cc tp
on bia nc gii kht. Cc hng bia ni ting c nhng bc tin chin lc nh
mua c phn, u t chin lc vo cc cng ty Bia, lin doanh lin kt vi cc cng
ty Bia a phng thm nhp vo th trng ny.

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II/ Phn tch SABECO
Lnh vc kinh doanh chnh
- Sn xut mua bn bia ru, nc gii kht, cn, nc khong
- Mua bn vt t, nguyn liu, thit b ngnh bia ru nc gii kht
Tm tt lch s hnh thnh
- Thnh lp thng 5/1977, tin thn l Nh my Bia Ch Ln
- Thng 9/2003 i tn thnh Cng ty Bia Si Gn
- Thng 5/2004, chuyn i thnh Tng cng ty trc thuc b Cng Nghip
- Thng 1/2008, c phn ha
C cu t chc




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Nhn xt:
C cu trc thuc s hu ca cng ty m rt t, ch c 11 cng ty trong khi s
lng cng ty lin kt ln ti 24 cng ty iu ny cho thy rng SABECO ang
ch trng vic pht trin tp on bng vic m rng cc cng ty con v cc
cng ty lin kt;
SABECO p dng chnh sch chung i vi tt c cc cng ty con, cng ty lin
kt, cng ty lin doanh, cc cng ty ny u c Sabeco chuyn giao v cng
ngh sn xut bia, s dng nhn hiu ca Bia Si gn hot ng. Vic hch
ton phn chia li ph thuc vo t l s hu ca SABECO.
SABECO tham gia gp vn vo cc cng ty ny di bng thng hiu v
cng ngh.
Vic sn xut Bia thng hiu Bia Si Gn ti cc n v thnh vin thc hin
thng qua hp ng hp tc sn xut, ng thi phi chu s qun l, chi phi
chin lc kinh doanh, nh hng pht trin, thng hiu ca SABECO.
Cc cng ty con v cng ty lin doanh lin kt bt buc phi phn phi Bia
thng qua cng ty TNHH TM Bia ru SG, thuc s hu 100% ca cng ty m
SABECO. Cc cng ty con v cng ty lin doanh lin kt cam kt bn qua cng

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ty TNHH TM DV vi gi thp hn gi bn ca SABECO ra ngoi th trng
khong l 8%2- 10%.
nh v sn phm

Sn phm ca SABECO ch yu l bia ph thng vi hai sn phm c tiu
th mnh th trng Vit nam l bia lon 333, Bia chai Si Gn .
Ngoi ra, SABECO pht trin cc dng sn phm khc nh SAIGON Export
hng ti th trng xut khu, SAIGON SPECIAL hng ti th trng bia cao
cp.
Tuy nhin, Bia ph thng vn chim th phn a s trong c cu doanh thu
ca SABECO.
Th phn ca SABECO

Theo thng k ca Euromonitor v s liu cng b ca SABECO, nu tnh sn
lng ton b ca SABECO v cc cng ty con, cng ty lin doanh lin kt,
nhn hiu bia SG chim khong 31% th trng Bia Vit nam (s liu c tnh
nm 2005).
Cc cng ty con, cng ty lin doanh lin kt sn xut hn 50% sn lng bia
Si Gn tiu th trn ton quc.
Th trng tiu th ch yu ca SABECO l cc tnh min Nam v Min Trung.
Vi thng hiu bia Saigon rt quen thuc vi cc th h ngi tiu dng,
y l th mnh s gip SABECO ngn cn c s thm nhp ca cc loi bia
bia nc ngoi vo th trng Bia Vit nam, v bo v c v tr hng u ca
mnh trong th trng Bia Vit Nam.
C cu tng doanh thu
Theo nh hng pht trin ca SABECO
3
, n nm 2008, c cu doanh thu
s c 34% doanh thu t hot ng sn xut Bia, 45% t hot ng thng mi
(phn phi sn phm bia Si gn ca cc cng ty con, v cc cng ty lin kt),
v 11% t hot ng u t ti chnh.
C cu li nhun tng ng vi cc hot ng l 45% cho hot ng sn xut bia,
35.26% cho hot ng TM DV v 19.3% cho hot ng u t ti chnh.
Hnh thc phn phi Bia


2
D on da trn s liu ti chnh tp hp ca cc cng ty con, v TNHH TM DV Bia SG
3
S liu cng b trong cuc Roadshow v IPO ca SABECO t chc ti Tp.HCM ngy 14/02/08

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Do sn phm c u chum v mc tiu th nhanh, Sabeco khng c knh
phn phi ring cho mnh. Bia Si gn c bn n tay ngi tiu dng bi rt
nhiu nh phn phi, bn l khc nhau. Hnh thc phn phi Bia SG c th nh sau:
Cc cng ty con, cng ty thnh vin k hp ng sn xut bia vi SABECO,
ri bn li sn phm cho cng ty TNHH TMDV Bia ru NGK Si Gn.
Cc sn phm ny s bn vi gi chung do SABECO quy nh cho i l cp
1.
Cc i l cp 1 s phn phi bia theo cc knh i l cp 2, v cc nh bn
l
Hnh thc phn phi ny dn n tnh trng cc ai l cp 1 v cp 2 d c kh nng
tng gi trn th trng, nht l trong tnh trng cc ngy cui nm gip Tt, khi nhu
cu tiu th Bia v nc gii kht tng cao.
Tnh hnh ti chnh

L mt doanh nghip c th phn cao nht v Bia, c thng hiu mnh, tnh hnh ti
chnh ca SABECO c nhng nt ni bt sau:
Tng trng mnh v doanh thu v li nhun qua cc nm
Khng b chim dng vn lu ng, c cu ngun vn hn 90% l vn CSH,
vi t trng ti sn di hn ln trong tng ti sn
Tnh hnh ti chnh lnh mnh, cng ty ang y mnh u t cc nh my
mi nng cao kh nng sn xut, thay th cc my mc thit b gn ht
khu hao.



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Phn tch cc thc c phn ha:
Vic thnh lp hng lot cc cng ty con, cc cng ty thnh vin nhm mc
ch xy dng mt c ch t chc linh hot, thch hp cho vic phn tn ngun
lc v thng hiu, t ai ca SABECO vo cc cng ty ny.
Gin tip chuyn li nhun c c t thng hiu, cng ngh, t ai qua
cc cng ty con, cng ty lin kt m c ng chnh ca cc cng ty ny l
thnh vin hay nhng ngi c lin quan n i ng lnh o.
Vic chuyn giao li nhun nh vy s nh hng trc tip n li nhun hp
nht ca Sabeco v nh hng n li ch c ng ca Sabeco sau khi c phn
ha.
III/ nh gi doanh nghip bng phng php chit khu lung
tin FCFD

Cch 1: nh gi da trn s liu qu kh ca doanh thu v li nhun ca
SABECO
Vic nh gi ca Sabeco s p dng phng php nh gi cc lung tin da vo
nhng thng tin chc chn, nhng thng tin do SABECO cng b:
S liu cc cng ty con da trn s liu thu thp c v hot ng kinh
doanh ca cc cng ty con
S liu nm 2007 tnh ton da trn s liu ca 9 thng u nm 2007
C cu chi ph, c cu ti sn ngun vn da trn s liu qu kh
Gi nh:
Khng c s tng gi ng k trong nhng nm sp ti
Chin lc pht trin v c cu t chc nh cc thng tin a ra trong bn
co bch

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Tng trng 20%
Khng c bin ng v c cu t chc
C cu v gi vn, cc chi ph bn hng, qun l doanh nghip v khu hao
tnh da trn cc s liu trong qu kh.
Li nhun ca cng ty m bao gm:
Phn li nhun thu c t hot ng chnh
Li nhun thu c t cng ty con (51% li nhun ca cng ty con)
Li nhun thu c t cng ty lin kt hch ton nh mt khon u t ti
chnh
Li nhun thu t cng ty TNHH TMDV Bia Si Gn
Li nhun t hot ng ti chnh

Phng php lun:
Do khng c bo co hp nht ca SABECO v s liu ti chnh ca cc cng ty con,
vic i sau vo hot ng cc cng ty con l khng cn thit v thiu hiu qu. Vic
tnh lung tin ca SABECO da trn phng php sau:
Tnh lung tin thu c t hot ng sn xut bia ca cng ty m
Tnh lung tin thu c t hot ng SX bia ca cc cng ty con sn xut
bia (Sabeco nm gi 51%)
Tnh lung tin t hot ng thng mi dch v thng qua cng ty TNHH 1
thnh vin Ru bia nc gii kht SABECO. Lung tin ny chnh l li nhun
thu t hot ng TMDV ca SABECO sau thu.
Tnh lung tin t hot ng u t ti chnh. i vi cc cng ty lin kt sn
xut Bia SG, do mc s hu ca SABECO thp, cho nn khi hp nht s
c coi nh mt khon u t ti chnh. Li nhun sau thu ca hot ng
u t c coi nh l lun tin t hot ng ny.
Theo thng tin cng b ca SABECO, c cu li nhun hp nht ca SABECO nh
sau:
45% li nhun thu t hot ng SX bia
35.26% li nhun thu t hot ng TMDV
19.31% li nhun t hot ng u t ti chnh.
Bng tnh:

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Cng ty Qun l qu An Phc
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Nhn xt: Gi tr 56,263 VN/Cp thu c trn l tnh da trn nhng thng tin
cha bc tch m SABECO cung cp, y l gi ca c phiu SABECO nh gi vi
nhng thng tin km lc quan nht.
Kt qu ca nh gi d dng b thay i rt ng k nu c s thay i v thng tin
v hot ng kinh doanh ca SABECO.
Cch 2: nh gi da trn s liu d on v sn lng Bia tiu th trong
tng lai do SABECO cung cp
Gi nh:
M hnh da trn sn lng Bia d on cho ton h thng SABECO t y n nm
2011
Gi bia gi thit khng tng t y n nm 2011;
C cu li nhun ca ton b h thng nh cch 1:
45% Li nhun thu t hot ng SX bia
35.26% li nhun thu t hot ng TMDV
19.31% li nhun t hot ng u t ti chnh.
Gi bia tnh da trn gi bia xut xng ca tng cng ty SABECO
Bng tnh:


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Cng ty Qun l qu An Phc
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Kt qu ca hai phng php nh gi
1. Vi gi nh gi bn khng tng trong tng lai


2. Gi bn tng 5% theo tng nm



Cc tc ng tch cc khc vi gi tr ca c phiu SABECO
Tc ng ca thay i v gi bn

Vi mc doanh thu khng l, mt s thay i v gi s trc tip thay i s tng trng v
doanh thu, to tng trng v li nhun.
Doanh thu ci thin thm 1%, gi c phiu s tng 3,5% v gi tr
S bin ng v gi Bia sau khi c phn ha v iu s xy ra v trong vng 5 nm gn y,
SABECO cha h tng gi bn mc d gi nguyn liu u vo tng 2-3 ln trong vng 3 nm
gn y.


Cc yu t tc ng khc

Doanh thu thc t nm 2007: bng nh gi tnh da trn bo co cha
kim ton ca 9 thng 2007, doanh thu thc t c kh nng ln hn nhiu so
vi doanh thu s dng nh gi. Theo tnh ton, c mi s thay i 1% v
doanh thu so vi doanh thu d on, Gi tr c phiu SABECO s thay
i tng ng 4,4% v gi tr.
Chnh sch tp trung ngun lc vo cng ty m: Li nhun s ci thin
ng k nu sau khi c phn ha, SABECO tin hnh tp trung ngun lc vo

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cng ty m, gim bt vic phn b ngun lc thng qua qu nhiu cng ty con
v cng ty lin kt, dn n gi tr ca c phiu SABECO cao hn nhiu so vi
gia 5.6X
Knh phn phi mi: Vic thnh lp mt h thng phn phi trc thuc
SABECO s gip xa b hin tng cc i l lm gi nhm hng mt khong
chnh lch rt ln t gi SABECO bn vi gi n tay ngi tiu dng. (hin
nay, cc i l n chnh lch khong 40% so vi gi bn ca SABECO);nu xy
dng c h thng phn phi nh vy, li nhun ca SABECO s tng nhiu
ln, dn ti vic gi tr ca c phiu SABECO tng nhiu ln.
So snh SABECO vi cc cng ty trong ngnh
4



Nu da vo thng tin cung do SABECO cung cp, vi gi khi im
70000VND/Cp, PE ca SABECO tng ng vi mc 60, qu cao so vi mt
bng chung ca cc cng ty trong ngnh trong nc v trong khu vc.
Tuy nhin, theo tnh ton, PE d on nm 2008 ca SABECO s tng
ng vi Vinamilk, cng ty sa chim th phn ln nht Vit nam. Tuy khin,

4
Ngun: Mekong Securities

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xt v yu t ngnh, ngnh Bia ha hn nhiu tim nng hn ngnh sa, v
kh nng duy tr th phn, cng nh kh nng pht trin ca SABECO ln hn
Vinamilk rt nhiu. V vy, nu la chn u t gia hai cng ty SABECO v
VNM vi cng ch s PE nh nhau, u t vo SABECO s ha hn em li li
nhun cao hn VNM.
Do thng tin cung cp cho cc nh u t khng y , s thay i mnh li
nhun ca SABECO sau khi IPO l iu s c kh nng ln xy ra. Hn na, c
cu t chc m con, cc cng ty thnh vin to nn mt c ch qun l kh
linh hot, gip cho ban qun tr d dng to nn nhng t bin ln v kt qu
kinh doanh, nht l li nhun i vi cng ty m. iu ny s tc ng ln n
bin ng gi c phiu ca SABECO trong tng lai.
Nhn nh u t:

Vi tnh hnh th trng CKVN ang st gim, cc lung tin ang c xu hng rt ra
khi th trng chng khon phng ri ro. Mc d thi im cng b bo co
kt qu kinh doanh ang n gn, nhng th trng thiu cc yu t c bn c
th phc hi nhanh v mnh. Hn na, cc nh u t nc ngoi cng nh trong
nc ang lo ngi vic c th xy ra khng hong i vi nn kinh t M, nn kinh
t c tc ng nh hng ton din ti nn kinh t th gii. Nu thc s c khng
hong ny, c hi hi phc cho th trng chng khon Vit nam trong ngn hn rt
mong manh.
Vic thng tin v SABECO s minh bch hn sau khi IPO l chc chn, v rt c
nihu kh nng k hoch kinh doanh s tt hn nhng thng tin m SABECO a
ra. Tuy nhin, nhng s t bin ln v t chc, c cu cng nh kt qu kinh
doanh kh xy ra hng lot trong ngn hn (1 nm)
Da vo xu hng th trng, nhn nh u t SABECO nh sau:
Mc gi khi im c th ni l cao so vi bi cnh hin ti, tuy nhin nh
phn tch trong phn nh gi, kh c th khng nh c gi 70 l r hay t,
v tng lai s ha hn rt nhiu t bin v li nhun v doanh thu ca
SABECO;
Tham gia IPO SABECO t ny khng dnh cho khong u t ngn hn di
1 nm. (So vi mc gi hin nay ca cc c phiu trn sn, th la chn u t
ngn hn vo SABECO khng phi la chn ti u)
i vi u t di hn: SABECO l c phiu ha hn c nhiu t pht trong
di hn, v hm cha t ri ro i vi cc nh u t.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Ti liu tham kho:
BCTC cha kim ton, cha hp nht ca cng ty m SABECO
Mt s s liu ti chnh tng hp ca cc cng ty con
Bn co bch ca SABECO
Bo co ngnh bia ru ca EUROMONITOR


Lu :

Ti liu ny mang tnh tham kho, cc nh u t nn coi bo co ny nh mt
ngun ti liu tham kho v phi chu hon ton trnh nhim v quyt nh u t
ca mnh.

Ti liu ny thuc bn quyn ca Cng ty Qun l qu u t chng khon An Phc
(An Phuc Investment), mi hnh vi sao chp, hay thay i ni dung u phi c s
ng ca An Phuc Investment.