Khu Vc Ngn hng: Mua bn, St

nhp v u t Chin lc
Din n Mua bn v St Nhp (M&A)
Vit Nam 2013
TP H Ch Minh, ngy 8 thng 8, 2013
Sanjay Kalra

i din Thng tr, Qu Tin t Quc t ti Vit

Nam v Lo

L trnh
Bi cnh kinh t v m
Tng trng chm li, cn nng cao tnh hiu qu
Cu trc ca h thng ngn hng
Thc trng h thng ngn hng

Khu vc Ngn hng: Trin vng, Ci cch v Mua

bn & St nhp
Trin vng
Khu vc ngn hng
Chin lc ci cch
Nhng mc tiu mua bn & st nhp: khu vc cng v t nhn
Mua bn v st nhp tin

Bi cnh kinh t v m

Nhng mi lin h v m-ti chnh

GDP thc v tng trng tn dng

Nhng mi lin h v m-ti chnh

Ri ro tn dng,
n xu v cung
tn dng
n by v nhu
cu tn dng
Gi tr ti sn v
cc bng cn i

Ngun tng trng kinh t

T l phn trm v c cu

Vietnam

China

Vietnam

Indonesia

1990- 1990- 2000- 1990- 1990- 2000- 1990- 1990- 20002010 2000 2010 2010 2000 2010 2010 2000 2010

China

Indonesia

1990- 1990- 2000- 1990- 1990- 2000- 1990- 1990- 20002010 2000 2010 2010 2000 2010 2010 2000 2010

GDP Growth

7.16

7.30

7.01

8.97

7.10

10.85

4.61

4.13

5.08

GDP Growth

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Capital Input

4.47

3.54

5.40

5.76

5.22

6.30

3.19

3.52

2.87

Capital Input

63

48

77

64

74

58

69

85

56

ICT

0.66

0.37

0.94

0.99

0.81

1.16

0.41

0.21

0.61

ICT

13

11

12

11

12

Non-ICT

3.81

3.16

4.46

4.77

4.41

5.14

2.79

3.31

2.26

Non-ICT

53

43

64

53

62

47

61

80

45

Labor Input

1.37

1.31

1.44

0.55

0.69

0.40

1.05

1.01

1.10

Labor Input

19

18

21

10

23

25

22

Quality

0.09

0.08

0.11

0.15

0.15

0.15

0.17

0.17

0.17

Quality

Hours

1.28

1.23

1.33

0.40

0.54

0.25

0.89

0.85

0.93

Hours

18

17

19

19

21

18

1.31

2.46

0.16

2.67

1.18

4.16

0.36

-0.4

1.12

18

34

30

17

38

-10

22

TFP

Source: Vu (2000)

TFP

Cu trc ca h thng ngn hng

Cu trc ca h thng ngn hng

Thc trng h thng ngn hng

Thanh khon v kh nng thanh ton

Cng thng v thanh khon

Trch lp d phng v t l vn

Khu vc Ngn hng: Trin vng,

Ci cch, Mua bn & st nhp

Trin vng
Dn s
Nhng ci cch c cu
Lnh vc Ngn hng
Chin lc ci cch

St nhp
VAMC
Phn loi n v n xu
Gim st

Nhng ci cch b tr: ci cch DNNN v

u t cng
11

Dn s
Vietnam: Structure of Population, 2010
80+
75-79

Female

Male

70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
Age

45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
(6,000)

(4,000)

Source: UNFPA.

(2,000)
2,000
Thousands of persons

4,000

6,000

Source: Credit Suisse

12

Chin lc ci cch khu vc ngn hng

c thng qua ngy 1 thng 3, 2012

Mc tiu chnh l nhm ti c cu mt cch cn bn v ton din h thng
cc t chc tn dng pht trinmt h thng hin i, an ton, hiu
qu theo cc chun mc v thng l ngn hng quc t
Nhng im chnh ca chin lc bao gm:
Phn loi cc t chc tn dng theo 3 loi: lnh mnh, thiu thanh khon v yu.
Tin hnh chn on h thng ngn hng bng cch nh gi tnh hnh ti
chnh, kh nng hot ng v qun l ca tng t chc, phn loi cc t chc
tn dng thnh tng lai nhm a ra cc bin php ti c cu ph hp.
Cc ngn hng yu phi c k hoch ti c cu hoc mua bn/st nhp. Cc t
chc b nh gi l yu cn cng c ti chnh, c bit bng cch tng vn, hn
ch tng trng v tr c tc, thc hin ti c cu hot ng v thay i c cu
s hu v qun l. Nu k hoch ti c cu tht bi, t chc s b t di
s kim sot c bit hoc b st nhp/hp nht vi t chc khc.
H tr cc t chc tn dng thiu thanh khon di cc hnh thc h tr thanh
khon tm thi. H tr thanh khon c cng b c th dnh cho c cc t
chc tn dng c kh nng thanh ton.
13

Chin lc ci cch lnh vc ngn hng

Cc im chnh ca chin lc (tip theo):

Tng vn cho cc ngn hng thng mi nh nc (NHTMNN). m bo p
ng cc chun mc v t l vn bng cch pht hnh thm c phiu v bm
thm qu cng mt cch thch hp.
Can thip sm nhm hn ch chi ph ngn sch. C bin php khc phc trc
khi tnh trng thiu thanh khon ca mt t chc t n mc nguy cp, chng
hn nh trc khi xy ra rt tin hng lot hoc nhng hot ng ngn hng
khng an ton, khng lnh mnh khc.
Gii quyt vn v cht lng ti sn. Tp trung gii quyt n xu gim bt
t l n xu thng qua vic bn ti sn th chp, bn n xu cho Cng ty Mua
bn n v ti sn (DATC), bn n xu cho cc t chc phi tn dng v cc cng
ty qun l ti sn ngn hng (AMCs) v xa n xu.
Ci thin qun tr. Cng c nng lc qun tr ngn hng, hin i ha cc h
thng qun l ri ro, h thng kim sot v kim ton ni b, tng tnh minh
bch, gim bt s kim sot v thao tng ca cc c ng ln.
Ngn hng Nh nc (NHNN) nn c trao trch nhim chnh trong vic thc
hin k hoch ci cch, trong khi B Ti chnh chu trch nhim phi hp vi
NHNN thc hin k hoch x l n xu v xc nh nhng nhu cu v vn ca
NHTMNN.
14

Mc tiu ca mua bn & st nhp:

T nhn

Gii quyt vn khc bit v a l hoc nng lc i vi

bn mua
To ra quy m
- V quy m tuyt i
- V th phn
t c trnh qun l v/hoc h thng tt
C hi ti chnh nh nh gi hp dn

15

Mc tiu ca mua bn v st nhp:

Khu vc cng

Tnh hiu qu
S n nh ti chnh
Trung gian ti chnh
Chi ph ngn sch

16

Xc tin mua bn & st nhp

Mt vi cuc st nhp cc ngn hng yu

Tng vn--trong v ngoi nc
Tm kim cc i tc chin lc

17

Phn loi n v N xu

Thng t 2
Ti c cu n
X l cc ti sn c vn

Vi cc nh lm lut
- Khng nn bt mt ngn hng tt li phi chu cc vn ca mt ngn
hng yu km
- Gii quyt vn vn c nh l mt phn ca qu trnh x l

i vi cc bn mua
- Bo m thng v mua bn nm trong li ch ca cc c ng
- Hiu rt r mc tiu a ra cho ngi mua l g v liu mua li c phi l
cch tt nht t c iu khng?
- Mnh dn v cng quyt trong vic bo v nhng g bn c thng qua
vic mua li ch da trn cc iu khon c iu chnh theo ri ro.
18

Xin cm n