CHNG TRNH GING DY KINH T FULBRIGHT

FULBRIGHT ECONOMICS TEACHING PROGRAM

Tnh hung ny do Nguyn Xun Thnh v Trn Th Qu Giang, Ging vin Chnh sch Cng ti FETP son.

Cc nghin cu tnh hung ca Chng trnh Ging dy Fulbright c s dng lm ti liu cho tho lun trn lp hc, ch
khng phi l ng h, ph bnh hay dng lm ngun s liu cho mt tnh hung chnh sch c th.

28 thng 10 nm 2007
Cp nht: 04 thng 05 nm 2011

Nghin cu Tnh hung

CHI PH VN BNH QUN TRNG S CA CNG TY FPT
(Phn tip theo ca Nghin cu tnh hung Chi ph vn c phn ca Cng ty FPT)

c lng bng phng php trc tip
Chi ph vn bnh qun trng s ca FPT c tnh theo cng thc:
WACC =
D C E
r t
E D
D
r
E D
E
) 1 (
+
+
+

vi WACC l chi ph vn bnh qun trng s
E l gi tr vn ch s hu
D l gi tr n vay
r
E
l chi ph vn ch s hu
r
D
l chi ph n vay
t
C
l thu sut thu thu nhp doanh nghip
C cu vn
C cu vn ca FPT c xc nh cn c vo Bng cn i k ton ca Cng ty nm 2010.
Theo Tiu chun k ton Vit Nam, vn ch s hu ca doanh nghip bao gm vn c phn,
thng d vn, li nhun cha phn phi v cc qu. Ngoi tr qu d tr b sung vn iu l,
cc qu ny (v d nh qu phc li v khen thng, qu u t v pht trin, qu d tr chnh
lch t gi) thc cht khng thuc v ch s hu. Do vy, khi tnh vn ch s hu, ta phi loi
b cc qu ny ra.
Do vic phn tch c cu vn ca FPT c da vo bo co ti chnh hp nht (t cng ty m
v cc cng ty con) nn trong vn ch s hu, ta cn c li ch c ng thiu s.
Vn ch s hu ca FPT (cui nm 2010) = E
= Vn c phn + Thng d vn C phiu qu + Li nhun cha phn phi
+ Qu d tr b sung vn iu l + Li ch c ng thiu s
= 1.934,81 + 60,01 0,69 + 1.856,2 + 112,95 + 1.065,63 = 5.028,91 t VND
i vi n vay ca doanh nghip, ta ch tnh vay ngn hn v vay di hn. Cc hng mc nh
khon phi tr v chi ph phi tr mc d nm trong n phi tr ca bng cn i k ton nhng
ta khng tnh vo n vay.
N vay ca FPT (cui nm 2010)
= Vay ngn hn + Vay di hn
= 2.675,93 + 1.800,36 = 4.476,29 t VND
Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Chi ph vn c phn ca Cng ty FPT
Nguyn Xun Thnh/Trn Th Qu Giang 2
N vay ca FPT (cui nm 2009) = D
= Vay ngn hn + Vay di hn
= 2.234,12 + 1.892,10 = 4.126,22 t VND
Chi ph vn ch s hu
Chi ph vn ch s hu ca FPT c lng theo phng php trc tip trn c s ca m hnh
CAPM.
1

Sut sinh li phi ri ro = Li sut TPCP k hn 1 nm vo T2/2011
= 10,81%/nm
Sut sinh li VN-Index lch s = Tc tng trung bnh cng, 2001-10
= 21,12%/nm
Sut sinh li phi ri ro lch s = Li sut trung bnh cng TPCP k hn 1 nm, 2001- 10
= 7,60%/nm
Mc b ri ro th trng = 21,12% 7,6% = 13,52%
H s beta ca FPT = |
FPT
= 1,194
Chi ph vn c phn = k
FPT
= 10,81% + 1,194*13,52% = 26,95%
Chi ph n vay
Cn c theo bo co kt qu hot ng kinh doanh nm 2010, chi ph tr li vay ca FPT trong
nm 2010 l 238,15 t ng.
Tng n vay cui nm 2010: 4.476,29 t ng
Tng n vay u nm 2010: 4.126,22 t ng
N bnh qun trong k: (4.476,29 + 4.126,22)/2 = 4.301,26 t ng
Chi ph n = Li vay tr trong k/N bnh qun trong k
r
D
= 238,15/4.301,26 = 5,54%
Mc chi ph n vay tnh ton c thp mt cch phi thc t. L do c th l vic tnh n
bnh qun l khng chnh xc v n vay c th thay i trong k. Nu tnh chi ph n vay
hiu dng trn c s d n u k th li sut tnh c cng ch mc = 5,77% (=
238,15/4.126,22).
c thc o tt hn, ta s dng chi ph n vay trn th trng ti thi im nh gi. Li sut
cho vay ca cc ngn hng thng mi vo thng 2 nm 2011 i vi doanh nghip c uy tn
(nh FPT) l mc trn ti a 18%/nm.
Thu sut thu thu nhp doanh nghip
Li nhun trc thu ca FPT nm 2010: 2.023,19 t VND
Thu thu nhp doanh nghip ca FPT nm 2010: 331,43 t VND
Thu sut hiu dng ca FPT nm 2010: 331,43/2.023,19 = 16,38%
Nh vy, mc thu sut hiu dng thu thu nhp doanh nghip ca FPT nm 2010 thp hn mc
lut nh 25%. Tuy nhin, xt v di hn nh u t k vng FPT s chu thu sut 25%. Do ,
s hp l hn nu ta coi t
C
= 25%.

1
Xem Nghin cu Tnh hung: Chi ph vn c phn ca Cng ty FPT.
Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Chi ph vn c phn ca Cng ty FPT
Nguyn Xun Thnh/Trn Th Qu Giang 3
Chi ph vn bnh qun trng s
WACC =
D C E
r t
E D
D
r
E D
E
) 1 (
+
+
+

= % 18 * %) 25 1 ( *
91 , 028 . 5 29 , 476 . 4
29 , 476 . 4
% 95 , 26 *
91 , 028 . 5 29 , 476 . 4
91 , 028 . 5

+
+
+

= 20,62%
c lng bng phng php gin tip
Do nhng kh khn trong vic c lng beta ca cc cng ty c phn hot ng Vit Nam
mt cch trc tip t s liu c phiu giao dch trn th trng chng khon cng nh vic tnh
sut sinh li k vng ca danh mc u t th trng, phng thc tnh chi ph vn c phn c
tin cy cao hn l da vo nhng thc o chun trn mt th trng chng khon pht trin
v d nh Hoa K.
Nguyn tc cn bn l chi ph vn c phn ca mt cng ty hot ng Vit Nam bng chi ph
vn c phn ca mt cng ty tng t hot ng Hoa K cng vi mc b ri ro quc gia.
Nu chi ph vn c phn ca cng ty Vit Nam tnh bng VND, cn chi ph vn c phn ca
cng ty Hoa K tnh bng USD, th mt khon b ri ro ngoi hi (tng ng vi chnh lch
li sut gia hai ng tin) phi c cng thm.
E[R
FPT
]
VN
= E[R
Cng ngnh
]
US
+ RP
c
+ RP
e

E[R
FPT
]
VN
= sut sinh li k vng vn c phn ca cng ty FPT hot ng VN.
E[R
Cng ngnh
]
US
= sut sinh li k vng vn c phn ca mt cng ty tng t nh FPT hot
ng Hoa K
RP
c
= mc b ri ro quc gia
RP
e
= mc b ri ro hi oi.
Cch tnh n gin trong Nghin cu tnh hung Chi ph vn c phn ca Cng ty FPT s dng
ngay h s beta ca bn ngnh Hoa K m FPT c hot ng kinh doanh. Tuy nhin, cc h s
beta ny ng vi nhng t l n/vn c phn v thu sut thu thu nhp doanh nghip Hoa K.
FPT c t l n/vn c phn v thu thu nhp doanh nghip hon ton khc. V vy, tnh ton
mt cch chnh xc hn ta phi iu chnh h s beta.
Gi |
L
US
l h s beta ca mt ngnh kinh doanh Hoa K. y l h s beta c vay n. p
dng cho Vit Nam, trc ht ta phi chuyn h s beta ny sang h s beta khng vay n, |
U
US

theo cng thc:

( )
US
US
C
US
L
U
E
D
t
|
.
|

\
|
+
=
1 1
|
|



Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Chi ph vn c phn ca Cng ty FPT
Nguyn Xun Thnh/Trn Th Qu Giang 4
Thng tin th trng ti chnh Hoa K
Ngnh
S doanh
nghip
Beta c vay
n T l D/E Thu sut
Beta khng
vay n
Phn mm my tnh 247 1,058 4,678% 13,878% 1,017
Internet 180 1,107 1,567% 7,893% 1,091
Phn phi, bn l 38 1,334 25,223% 25,959% 1,124
Gio dc 38 0,794 8,885% 27,323% 0,746
Ngun: Damodaran Online, truy cp ngy 04/05/2011 ti a ch http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/.
T trng li nhun trc thu ca ring 4 lnh vc ln nht ca FPT ln lt l 39,0%, 32,9%,
22,5% v 5,6%. Vy, h s beta bnh qun khng vay n p dng cho FPT l:
|
U
= 1,017*39% + 1,091*32,9% + 1,124*22,5%+0,746*5,6% = 1,050
Tip theo, ta chuyn h s beta khng vay n tnh bnh qun cho FPT thnh h s beta c vay n
vi c cu vn v thu sut thu thu nhp doanh nghip ca FPT.
FPT
L
| =
( )
1 1
FPT
FPT
U C
D
t
E
|
(
| |
+
(
|
\ .
(


=
(

|
.
|

\
|
+
91 , 028 . 5
29 , 476 . 4
%) 25 1 ( 1 050 , 1
= 1,751
Ta c:
Sut sinh li phi ri ro Hoa K = Li sut tri phiu CPHK k hn 1 nm, 28/2/2011
= 0,25%/nm
Sut sinh li danh mc th trng Hoa K = Sut sinh li trung bnh c phiu, 1928-2010
= 11,31%/nm
Sut sinh li phi ri ro lch s Hoa K = Sut sinh li trung bnh tri phiu CP, 1928-2010
= 5,28%
Mc b ri ro th trng = 11,31% 5,28% = 6,03%
H s beta bnh qun p dng cho FPT = 1,672
Mc b ri ro quc gia = 4%
Mc b ri ro ngoi hi = 8,5%
Chi ph vn c phn = k
FPT
= (0,25% + 1,672*6,03%) + 4% + 8,5% = 23,31%
Chi ph vn bnh qun trng s
WACC =
D C E
r t
E D
D
r
E D
E
) 1 (
+
+
+

= % 18 * %) 25 1 ( *
91 , 028 . 5 29 , 476 . 4
29 , 476 . 4
% 31 , 23 *
91 , 028 . 5 29 , 476 . 4
91 , 028 . 5

+
+
+

= 18,69%