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M HNH HA TRONG NH GI KINH T Y T

PGS.TS. Hong Vn Minh Trng i hc Y H ni

L do
Phn tch chi ph hiu qu cn c s liu v chi ph v hiu qu S liu v chi ph v hiu qu c th ly t nghin cu th nghim lm sng ngu nhin c i chng Tn km Khng p ng nhu cu bng chng ngay Khng i din

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M hnh ha
Da trn m hnh ton hc tng hp v phn tch cc s liu sn c v chi ph v hiu qu (Chi ph t nghin cu 1, hiu qu t nghin cu 2) M hnh thng dng
Cy quyt nh (Decision trees) M hnh Markov (State-transition models

Cy quyt nh
Khng lm g Vn sc khe Ngoi khoa

Ni khoa

Nt quyt inh Nt c hi, xc sut

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M hnh Markov
P11 = 0.75 Khe (1) P12 = 0.2 P21 = 0.3 Bnh (2) P23 = 0.1 P22 = 0.6 P22 = 1 P21 P23 *P12; P21; P23 c th b thay i do cc can thip P33 = 1.0 Cht (3) P13 = 0.05 P11 = 1 P12 P13

M hnh Markov
Cp tnh (2)

Khe (1)

Mn tnh(3)

Cht(4)

Cht = Mt trng khng di chuyn tip