TRNG I HC KINH T TP.

HCM
KHOA TI CHNH DOANH NGHIP

LPMHNH TI CHNH
CH :

PHN TCH TI CHNH V NH GI

CNG TY C PHN MA NG
BOURBON TY NINH

TP. H Ch Minh ngy 12 thng 12 nm 2011

GVHD: GV. HUNH TH CM H

MC LC
TNG QUAN V CNG TY BOURBON TY NINH ................................................ 5
1.1

Lch S Hnh Thnh ............................................................................................ 5

1.2

Ngnh Ngh Kinh Doanh .................................................................................... 5

1.3

Sn Phm .............................................................................................................. 6

1.4

Qu Trnh Pht Trin .......................................................................................... 6

1.5

Mc Tiu Pht Trin ........................................................................................... 7

1.5.1

Tm Nhn ........................................................................................................ 7

1.5.2

Hot ng Ct Li ......................................................................................... 7

1.5.3

nh Hng Pht Trin................................................................................. 7

1.5.4

a Dng Ha sn Phm V M Rng Ngnh Ngh Kinh Doanh ............ 8

1.6

nh Gi Nng Lc Ban Qun Tr ................................................................................ 8

2.1. PhnTch Ngnh Ma ng Vit Nam ........................................................................ 10

2.1.1. c im ca ngnh ma ng .................................................................... 10
2.1.2. Nng lc sn xut.......................................................................................... 11
2.1.3.Sc cnh tranh ca ngnh .............................................................................. 14
2.1.4.Trin vng ngnh ............................................................................................ 15
2.2.

Phn Tch Hot ng Kinh Doanh Ca Cng Ty................................................... 16

2.2.1.

Phn Tch SWOT ...................................................................................... 16

2.2.2.

V Th Ca Cng Ty ................................................................................. 19

2.2.3.

Chin Lc Kinh Doanh .......................................................................... 20

2.2.4.

Ri Ro Kinh Doanh .................................................................................. 21

PHN TCH TI CHNH ....................................................................................25

3.1. Phn Tch T S Ti Chnh Cn Bn ............................................................................. 25
3.2. Phn Tch Doanh Thu ........................................................................................... 26
3.2.1. Ngun doanh thu ch yu ca SBT .............................................................. 26

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3.2.2. Tnh bn vng ca s tng trng doanh thu .............................................. 29

Khch hng: ...................................................................................................... 31

Th trng tiu th: ........................................................................................... 31

Cc li th cnh tranh ....................................................................................... 31

Tc ng ca mi trng kinh doanh ln doanh s: ........................................ 32

nh gi: ........................................................................................................... 32

3.2.3. Mi quan h gia doanh thu, khon phi thu v hng tn kho .................. 33
3.3. Phn Tch Chi Ph .................................................................................................................. 35
3.4. Phn Tch T Sut V Kh Nng Sinh Li .................................................................. 37

PHN TCH TRIN VNG V D PHNG KT QU KINHDOANH

CA SBT DOANH CA SBT ..............................................................................40
4.1. D Phng Kt Qu Kinh Doanh Giai on 2012 2016 ......................................... 43
4.1.1. c Lng Kt Qu Hot ng Kinh Doanh C Nm 2011 ...................... 43
4.1.2. D Phng Kt Qu Kinh Doanh Giai on 2012 2016 ............................ 45
4.2. D phng bng cn i k ton ......................................................................... 47
4.3. D phng bo co lu chuyn tin t .................................................................. 49
4.4. nh gi cng ty bng phng php FCFF ....................................................... 49
4.4.1. o lng h s beta........................................................................................ 50
4.4.2. o lng li sut phi ri ro v phn b ri ro th trng ............................. 54
4.5.

nh gi theo phng php FCFE ................................................................................ 58

4.6.

nh gi doanh nghip theo phng php P/E : ............................................. 59

4.7.

nh gi theo phng php P/BV: ................................................................................ 59

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M U
Trc khi i vo cc chi tit ca quy trnh nh gi mt cng ty, chng ti xin trch dn
mt cu ni ni ting ca nh u t huyn thoi Warren Buffet, c nhiu ngi dng
lm kim ch nam trong vic u t. Cu ni ni ting th hin trit l u t rt c trng
ca Warren Buffet:
u t vo mt cng ty tuyt vi vi mc gi hp l s tt hn nhiu vic u t vo
mt cng ty hp l vi mc gi tuyt vi.
C l cc bn khng l g vi trit l u t gi tr ca Warren Buffet. u trong th
trng, lun c nhng c hi chng ta chp ly, lun c nhng c phiu tt nhng
ang b th trng lng qun v hy nhn c hi m quan tm n n. Cui cng,
s thnh cng, s giu c s n vi bn.
Nhng t n s thnh cng, s giu c trong vic u t trn th trng chng
khon, bn phi thc hin mt cng vic ht sc quan trng, ct yu. Cng vic ny s
gip bn tm c mt na ca mnh trn th trng, mt na m bn ngh l n
ng bn quan tm v i tm nim hnh phc vi n.
C l n y, cc bn s t m mun bit cng vic l g. Vng, cng vic m
chng ti mun cp n y chnh l phn tch ti chnh v nh gi mt cng ty. L
cha kha m cnh ca i n con ng thnh cng, giu c trn th trng chng
khon.
Nhng phn tip theo chng ti xin gii thiu n cc bn cc quy trnh phn tch ti
chnh v nh gi mt cng ty. C th, cng ty m chng ti phn tch l Cng ty C
Phn Ma ng Bourbon Ty Ninh (M CK: SBT).

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TNG QUAN V CNG TY BOURBON TY NINH

1.1 Lch S Hnh Thnh
Khi mi thnh lp, cng ty TNHH ma ng Bourbon Ty Ninh l mt cng ty
lin doanh c thnh lp ti Vit Nam theo giy php u t s 1316/GP ngy 15
thng 7 nm 1995 do y ban Nh nc v Hp tc v u t (nay l b k hoch
v u t) cp.
Theo giy php u t iu chnh s 1316A/GP ngy 22 thng 5 nm 2000, k t
nm 2000, cng ty c chp thun tr thnh doanh nghip 100% vn u t
nc ngoi do Groupe Bourbon (G.B), tr s t ti B.P.2 La Mare 97438 SainteMarie, tnh Reunion, cng ha Php thnh lp.
Cng ty chnh thc chuyn thnh cng ty c phn v hot ng theo giy chng
nhn u t s 451033000014 do y ban nhn dn tnh Ty Ninh cp vo ngy 23
thng 3 nm 2007, iu chnh ln th 7 ngy 31 thng 12 nm 2010, theo , vn
iu l ca Cng ty l 1.419.258.000.000 VND, bao gm 141.925.800 c phn vi
mnh gi 10.000/c phn.
Ngy 25/02/2008 Cng ty nim yt 44.824.172 c phiu trn Sn giao dch chng
khon thnh ph H Ch Minh, chim 31,58% s c phiu pht hnh. M chng
khon: SBT.
1.2 Ngnh Ngh Kinh Doanh
Sn xut ng, cc sn phm ph.
Trng cy ma
Sn xut v kinh doanh cc sn phm c s dng ng hoc s dng ph phm,
ph phm t sn xut ng;
Sn xut in thng phm v in t s dng t nguyn liu chnh l b ma
v/hoc than ;
Sn xut v kinh doanh phn bn, vt t nng nghip;
Xy dng h tng khu cng nghip, cc cng trnh dn dng;
Xy dng v kinh doanh siu th, nh hng, khch sn .

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1.3 Sn Phm
ng tinh luyn cao cp theo tiu chun Chu u l sn phm chnh ca SBT.
Ngoi ra, ph phm mt r c bn cho cc doanh nghip sn xut cn, bt ngt; b bn,
tro l sn xut phn hu c, cung cp cho nng dn bn ma. c bit SBT bn in
thng phm cho tp on in lc Vit Nam, c sn xutt nhit lng t b ma.
Nhm p ng yu cu th trng, SBT cho ra 2 dng sn phm ng khc nhau:
ng tinh luyn thng hng thng hiu BonSu loi ti 1kg vi tnh nng
SIU SCH, em li s an ton tuyt i cho sc kha ca ngi tiu dng. Hin
nay, ng BonSu c mt ti hu ht cc siu th v ca hng ti cc tnh thnh
ph ln trong nc.
ng tinh luyn thng hiu Mimosa loi bao 50kg phc v cho nhm khch
hng cng nghip l nguyn liu cho ngnh dc phm, nc gii kht v thc
phm ch bin cao cp.
1.4 Qu Trnh Pht Trin
Nhng Ct Mc Quan Trng:
7/1995

Nhn giy php u t, thnh lp lin doanh gia tp on

Bourbon,Tng cng ty ma ng II v Cng ty ma ng Ty Ninh.

11/1995 Khi cng xy dng nh my.
10/1998 a Nh my vo chy th.
02/1999 L khnh thnh khai trng hot ng ca Nh my.
01/2000 in thng phm ca nh my ha vo li in Quc gia.
05/2000 Chuyn sang Cng ty 100% vn nc ngoi.
11/2003 t chng ch ISO 9001:2000.
03/2007 Chuyn sang Cng ty c phn.
04/2007 K hp ng vi 17 i tc chin lc.
07/2007 Nhn giy php IPO.
09/2007 Hy IPO.
12/2007 Hon tt th tc thanh ton tin thu t khu Trung tm Thng Mi.

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02/2008 Chnh thc nim yt ti SGDCK TPHCM.
09/2008 Cng ty CP Bourbon An Ha nhn giy chng nhn ng k kinh doanh.
11/2008 t chng nhn h thng qun l mi trng 14001:2004.
12/2008 Cng ty Cp Bourbon An ha nhn giy Chng nhn u t do BQL cc
KCN Ty Ninh cp.
06/2009 SBT gii thiu sn phm ng tinh luyn thng hng vi tnh nng
Siu Sch BonSu.
10/2009 L ng th Vn Cng nghip Bourbon An Ha.
02/2010 t chng nhn ISO 9001:2008.
11/2010 Tp on Bourbon chuyn nhng ton b s lng c phn s hu ti
SBT cho i tc Vit Nam.
12/2010 SBT nhn giy chng nhn u t iu chnh ln th 7, i tn ngi i
din theo Php lut.
1.5 Mc Tiu Pht Trin
1.5.1 Tm Nhn
Tr thnh cng ty sn xut ng tinh luyn hng u Vit Nam v khu vc.
1.5.2 Hot ng Ct Li
T khi thnh lp n nay, hot ng ct li ca SBT vn l ngnh ma ng. K
tha 60 nm kinh nghim trong ngnh sn xut ng ti php ca Tp on Bourbon
sng lp vin, SBT s hu nh my hin i nht Vit Nam v khu vc ng Nam vi
cng ngh Chu u. Duy nht Bourbon Ty Ninh c th sn xut trc tip ng tinh
luyn t ma ti Vit Nam.
1.5.3 nh Hng Pht Trin
Vi SBT sn xut v kinh doanh ng tinh luyn lun l ngnh chnh v l hot
ng ct li, v vy, cng ty lun xc nh nh hng pht trin l duy tr vng nguyn
liu ma ang c, m rng din tch ma, tng bc nng cng sut nh my ln 9.000 tn
ma/ngy trong v sn xut 2011-2012 v nng cng sut ln 16.000 tn ma/ ngy khi
vng nguyn liu ma p ng c yu cu. Trong nh hng di hn, SBT s tip tc

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a dng ha sn phm ng ang c v pht trin cc d n u t khc mang li hiu
qu cao.
1.5.4

a Dng Ha sn Phm V M Rng Ngnh Ngh Kinh Doanh

p ng nhu cu th trng, nm 2009 SBT mang n ngi tiu dng sn

phm ng tinh luyn vi tnh nng siu sch: khng cht ty trng, khng ha cht,
khng vi khun. Hin nay, SBT tip tc nghi cu v a dng ha sn phm, mang n
cho ngi tiu dng sn phm ng vng thi nhin v ng tinh luyn cc tinh khit
theo tiu chun Chu u.
Bn cnh hot ng ct li l sn xut v kinh doanh ng tinh luyn, c s
chp thun ca i hi ng c ng nm 2008, SBT m rng sang lnh vc xy dng h
tng khu cng nghip v cc cng trnh dn dng, kinh doanh siu th, nh hng, khch
sn.
1.6 nh Gi Nng Lc Ban Qun Tr
SBT c iu hnh v pht trin bi i ng lnh ogiu kinh nghim khng
ch trong nc v c trn trng quc t. c bit, tha hng c kinh nghim qun tr
tin tin trong lnh vc ma ng t sng lp vin Tp on Bourbon ca php trc
y.
Trong , phi k n b Hunh Bch Ngc hin ang l ch tch hi ng qun
tr (HQT) ca cng ty. Khi nghip vi c s sn xut Cn Thnh Thnh Cng t nm
1980, sau thi gian hot ng, B pht trin c s cn Thnh Thnh Cng thnh cng
ty TNHH SX TM Thnh Thnh Cng. n ngy 28/07/2007, Cng ty Thnh Thnh
Cng chuyn sang hot ng mt m hnh mi cng ty c phn vi tn gi: Cng
ty c phn SX TM Thnh Thnh Cng. Thnh Thnh Cng cng l c ng ln ca
mt s doanh nghip ma ng trong thi gian qua nh cng ty c phn ma ng Bin
Ha (BHS), cng ty c phn ma ng Ninh Ha (NHS) v cng ty c phn ma ng
Nhit in Gia Lai (SEC). y l mt yu t rt thun li i vi SBT khi b Hunh
Bch Ngc nm gi chc HQT ca cng ty, ngoi ra, B cng l ch tch HQT ca
Thnh Thnh Cng.

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Bn cnh , tng gim c iu hnh ca SBT ng Nguyn B Ch cng l
mt lnh o giu ti nng v kinh nghim trong lnh vc ma ng. L c nhn kinh t
cng nghip trng i hc kinh t TPHCM. Bt u lm vic ti cng ty ng Bnh
Dng t nm 1987, n nay ng hn 20 nm kinh nghim trong ngnh ma ng.
ng tng tham gia nhiu kha o to qun l cp cao trong v ngoi nc, c bit l
cc kha o to chuyn su v qun l sn xut trong ngnh ma ng. ng cng tng
l Ph Tng gim c cng ty c phn SX TM Thnh Thnh Cng.
Vi i ng lnh o y ti nng v giu kinh nghim trong lnh vc ma ng
nh vy; ha hn con tu SBT s c lo li i ng hng, chinh phc nhng mc tiu
giu tham vng trong lnh vc ma ng.

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PHN TCH MI TRNG V CHIN LC KINH DOANH
2.1. PhnTch Ngnh Ma ng Vit Nam
2.1.1. c im ca ngnh ma ng
Gi thnh ng cao
L ngnh mi bt u hot ng mnh t nhng nm 1990, c tui i rt non tr
so vi khu vc v th gii (n l nc u tin trn th gii bit sn xut ng t
ma, cng nghip ng tuy c t lu i, nhng200 nm gn y mi c c kh ha,
nhiu thit b quan trng c pht minh vo th k 19), my mc cng ngh lc hu,
cng sut thp, chi ph sn xut v ch bin ng cao nn gi thnh trung bnh ng
Vit Nam lun cao hn t vi chc n c 100 USD/tn so vi n , Thi Lan, Trung
Quc, Braxin dn n kh khn khi cnh tranh vi ng nhp lu.
Din tch trng ma nh l, phn tn v cha c u ttng xng yu cu sn
xut cng nghip, nng sut ma thp.
Din tch trng, sn lng ma bnh qun/nin v/h qu thp (30 40 tn
ma/nin v/h), thi gian sinh trng di, li b cnh tranh quyt lit bi cc cy trng
khc (cao su, cafe), cn nng dn th khng mn m vi cy ma. Nguyn nhn do:
Mt l,Nh nc cha c c ch h tr cho nng dn n nh sn xut ma, tuy
cc nh my c k kt hp ng hn hoi song thng ch l hp ng 1 nm (trong khi
mt chu k trng ma thng thng l 3 nm), trong gi ma thu mua khng c m
bo v xc nh l bao nhiu nn nng dn khng mnh dn u t v khng chc chn s
thu hi vn v c li;
Hai l, do c cu phn chia t l li nhun cha hp l trong nng dn b thit
nhiu nht, Nh nc ch khuyn co mua mt tn ma vi gi bng 60 kg ng, khng
p t v khng kim sot c, gi ng li lun ln xung tht thng, do nng
dn cha yn tm sn xut v li ch khng r rng v khng c m bo. V vy dn
n vic din tch ma tng chm, nng sut ma thp, bnh qun t gn 60 tn/ha, ngoi
ng bng sng Cu Long t trung bnh 70-80 tn/ha, cn li hu ht cc vng khc
cht 45-50 tn/ha (so vi nng sut ma bnh qun trn th gii hin nay l 70 tn/ha).

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Cnh tranh nguyn liu u vo gay gt
Hin nay trn c nc c khong 40 nh my sn xut ng nm ba khu vc
ln l min Bc, min Trung Ty Nguyn vng bng sng Cu Long. Tuy nhin
khng phi nh my no cng t xy dng c cho mnh vng nguyn liu n nh, sn
lng ma chp ng c 61,2% tng cng sut , 40 nh my ang hot ng th c 2
nh my khng nguyn liu (NM Tuyn Quang 21%, Sugar Vit Nam 15,5%) v 13
nh my hot ng di 50% cng sut. V vy s cnh tranh gia cc nh my trong
cng mt a bn tr nn v cng gay gt. Tnh trng cc nh my khng c vng nguyn
liu ca mnh m phi thu mua t cc thng li to nn s cnh tranh khng lnh
mnh, ph gi mua gia cc thng li.
Hiu sut thu hi ng ca cc nh my thp
Mt ha ma BSCL ch thu hi c 4-6 tn ng, trong khi cc nc trong
khu vc c hiu sut thu hi ng t 10-13 tn/ha. Hiu sut thu hi ng thp, cht
lng ma nguyn liu thp do ging ma c c nng sut thp, tr lng thp t l thoi
ha su bnh nhiu, thu ma non ma d, dn n t l ma/ng ca Vit Nam l tng
i cao. ng thi, t l ma/ng Vit Nam cho thy ph thuc vo c quy m ca
nh my.iu c ngha li vi cc nh my c quy m cng ln th hot ng c
hiu qu hn vi t l ma/ng thp hn.
Cc nh my ng c quy m nh, cng sut thp
Bnh qun ch t khong 2.500 tn/ngy/nh my, nguyn nhn chnh l do l
cng ngh lc hu, phn ln cc nh my u s dng dy chuyn cng ngh thit b c
ca Trung Quc - h qu ca s pht trin t cc nh my ng trong giai on u
sau khi c chng trnh 1 triu tn ng (ngoi tr cc nh my lin doanh v c vn
u t nc ngoi nh SBT), v hai l do kh khn v ngun nguyn liu.

2.1.2. Nng lc sn xut

Ngnh sn xut ma ng khng c nh nc quan tm ng mc.
Nu nh cc ngnh khc nh: la, cao su, ng, v.v c nh nc khuyn

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khch pht trin thngnh ma ng hu nh khng c h tr. Vic trng ma l s
tha thun gia haibn: ngi trng ma v cc ch doanh ngip sn xut ma. Chnh v
yu t ny m din tch trng ma khng c n nh v nng sut ma cha thc s
cao.

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Sn lng ng trong nc v nhu cu tiu th

Nhn vo s liu ta thy rng din tch trng ma v sn lng ma

khng n nh.Cth vo nm 2008, din tch trng ma gim so vi nm 2007 l 7.6%
v sn lng cng gim tng ng l 7.3%. V vy m lng cung cu ma ng trong
nc khng c n nh, iu ny xut pht t hai nguyn nhn:
Th nht, cy ma khng th cnh tranh ni vi mt s loi cy trng khc, in
hnh nht c l l cy sn.
Th hai, khng th khng k n nhng cam kt khng kt dnh gia
ngi nng dn trng ma v cc ch nh my ma.Khi nhng nm nng sut ma cao th
cc cc doanh nghip ma li chn p gi ca ngi dn, y gi ma xung thp.Cn
vo nhng nm mt ma th ngc li, v mc ch li nhun, ngi dn t
ph v hp ng bn ma vi gi cao, lm thit hi cho cc ch sn xut
ma.
Hin nay, c nc c khong 40 nh my sn xut ma ng a s l
nh my qucdoanh. Cc nh my ln nh l: nh my ng Ngh An Tatte & Lyle,

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nh my ng Sn La, nh my ng Bin Ha, nh my ng Lam Sn, nh my
ng Bourbon Ty Ninh Nhng hin nay ch mi c 3 cng ty ma ng nim yt
trn sn HOSE l:CTCP ng Bin Ha (BHS), CTCP ma ng Lam Sn
(LSS), CTCP Bourbon TyNinh (SBT).Theo s liu thng k th tng cng sut ch
bin ma ch l 175,750 tn, ngha l cng sut bnh qun mi nh my ng ca nc
ta hin nay ch l 2,644 tn ma cy/ngy.Trong , nu khng k 8 cng ty ln ca
Vit Nam hin nay, vi tng cng sut 50 nghn tn ma cy/ngy - tc l
cng sut bnh qun ca nhm ny l 6,250 tn ma cy/ngy, th tng cng
sut ca 32 nh my ng cn li ch l 55.7 nghn tn ma cy/ngy v cng
sut bnh qun ca mi nh my thuc nhm ny ch l 1,742 tn ma cy/ngy. y qu
thc l mt tnh trng ng bo ng i vi ngnh ma ng VitNam. Bi trn th
gii, quy m c coi l ti thiu t c hiu qu kinh t ca mt nh
my ng phi vo khong 6 - 7 nghn tn ma cy/ngy, nh ca nhm
8cng ty ma ng ln nht trong nc. Quy m bnh qun ca cc nh my
ngThi Lan hin vo khong 12 nghn tn ma cy/ngy, ca Australia
khong 10 nghn tn ma cy/ngy, hay ca Mexico tuy thp hn rt nhiu,
nhng cng l 5 nghn tn ma cy/ngy... cng cho thy iu
2.1.3.Sc cnh tranh ca ngnh
Ngnh ng Vit Nam khng c tnh cnh tranh cao so vi cc nc trong khu
vc v trn th gii, do gi thnh sn xut cao, mt phn l do gi mua nguyn
liu ma cao hn cc nc trong khu vc khong 30%, ng thi dy chuyn sn xut
ma nc ta cha cao so vi cc nc trn th gii. Gi ng trn th gii ang c
xu hng thp hn so vi trong nc. Mt v d c th, theo s liu thng k cho
thy vo thng 2/2009, khi gi ng nhp khu ca NewYork v London v VN ch
khong 9.000 ng/kg, th Vit Nam, gi ln n khong 13,000 - 14,000 ng/kg.
R rng l chng ta cha th cnh tranh ni v gi c trn th trng quc t. Mt khc,
trong cc nm gn y, gi ng Vit Nam c bo h bi thu quan cao v hn ngch
nhp khu, to iu kin thun li cho cc doanh nghip trong nc. Thu sut nhp
khu mt hng ng 2008

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Tuy nhin, bc sang nm 2010, theo l trnh hi nhp AFTA, nc ta bt u

p dng thu xut nhp khu ng l 5%, cng vi vic gia nhp WTO, Vit
Nam s phi m ca nhp khu trong hn ngch l 25% vi ng th, ngoi hn
ngch l 65%, khi lngnhp khu trong hn ngch cn tng 5% mi nm. y
l mt kh khn ngnh ng cnh tranh vi cc nc cng nghip ng
pht trin trong khu vc v trn thgii.
2.1.4.Trin vng ngnh
Ngnh ma ng th gii ang trn hi phc
Theo d bo trong vng t 2-3 nm ti, gi ng s mc cao v n nh, do tc
ng ca dn s th gii hin nay l 6,7 t v c d bo s tng ln ti trn 7 t ngi
vo nm 2012, gi du th tng (gn 100 USD/thng) v chng trnh pht trin ethanol
nhin liu (c bit l ca Braxin chim 60% sn lng ng). Khi kinh t th gii bt
u hi phc, nhu cu v ethanol trn th gii s tng rt cao do du ngy cng khan
him v kh khai thc, ng ngha vi vic gi du ngy cng tng cao nh hin nay
cng vi nhng vn v nhim mi trng. Ethalnol km gy nhim hn xng.V
vy, chin lc ca M v chu u tp trung vo s tng cng hp tc vi Braxin trong
vic nhp ethanol nhm gim bt s ph thuc vo cc nc sn xut du.
Vit Nam c cc iu kin t nhin thun li pht trin cy ma
V mt ti nguyn t nhin, nh kh hu, t ai, Vit Nam c nh gi l nc
c tim nng trung bnh kh pht trin ma cy. a hnh Vit Nam c t ng
bng, lng ma kh (1.400 mm n 2.000 mm/nm), nhit ph hp, nng thch
hp cho cy ma pht trin. Cc vng nh Ty Nguyn v ng Nam B, c bit l
Duyn hi Nam Trung B c kh nng cho cy ma c sn lng ng cao.
Nhu cu tiu dng ni a ca Vit Nam ngy cng tng cao (nm 2011 khong
1,4 triu tn)

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Mc tiu th ng bnh qun ca Vit Nam c tc tng trng kh cao. Bnh
qun giai on 1999-2009 tiu dng tng khong 5,1%/nm, nm 2010 d kin t 17,5
kg/ngi/nm.Trong khi sn xut ng trong nc mi ch p ng ckhong 70%
nhu cu, phn cn li ch yu nhp khu t TrungQuc v Thi Lan, nh vy, tim nng
t th trng ni a vncn rt ln.

2.2.

Phn Tch Hot ng Kinh Doanh Ca Cng Ty

2.2.1. Phn Tch SWOT

im mnh:
SBT s hu mt h thng dy chuyn thit b sn xut tin tin v hon ton t
ng theo tiu chun Chu u, hin i nht khu vc ng Nam . Cng sut sn xut
ln, ph hp vi xu hng pht trin sp ti ca ngnh ng Vit Nam.
B my qun l tinh gn, hiu qu, theo phong cch Chu u, tha hng kinh
nghim qun l ca c ng sng lp trc y l Tp on Bourbon ca Php. i ng
k s, cng nhn hu ht l ngi a phng c trnh tay ngh cao, hon ton lm
ch c cng ngh trc y do nhng chuyn gia nc ngoi m nhim.
Cc c ng ln ca SBT u l cc doanh nghip c nhng th mnh v kinh
nghim lu nm trong cc ngnh ngh dch v, cng nghip, thng mi v ti chnh c
th hoch nh cho SBT nhng bc pht trin v chiu su cng nh m rng thm cc
ngnh ngh kinh doanh khc ph hp vi tim nng ca SBT v a phng.
V tr nh my ca SBT t ngay trong vng trung tm nguyn liu ca Tnh Ty
Ninh, l khu vc c din tch trng trt ln v thun li cho vic pht trin cy ma. Do
vy, c li th l gim chi ph vn chuyn nguyn liu n nh my v gim c t l
hao ht ch ng ca ma do rt ngn thi gian chuyn ch ma t nng trng n nh
my.
n nay, SBT cng xy dng c cho mnh mt thng hiu c tn tui v uy
tn i vi th trng trong nc, c bit l i vi cc doanh nghip ln trong ngnh
ch bin thc phm, bnh ko v nc gii kht. Bn cnh , h thng phn phi ca
cng ty ngy cng hiu qu v nng ng.

GVHD: GV. HUNH TH CM H

H thng kho cng Bn Ko ta lc ti x Long Thnh Nam, Huyn Ha Thnh,
ti ca ng th x Ty Ninh, bn sng Vm C ng, c xy dng trn c s hp ng
hp tc u t ngy 01/03/1996 gia cng ty Lm Sn Ty Ninh v SBT. H thng kho
cng thuc quyn qun l v s dng ca SBT trong thi gian 30 nm ( tnh t nm
1996) nm trong khun vin c din tch 10.800m2 gm cu cng di 40m, din tch cu
cng 320m2 cho php tip nhn phng tin thy c mn nc ln nht l 3m. Mt nh
kho rng 1.000m2, bn mt r 2.500m3, c trang b h thng cu bc d hng ha t
tu chuyn trc tip vo trong kho v ngc li, ngoi ra cn c h thng ng ng bm
mt r chuyn t bn n tu nhn hng.
Ngun nguyn liu ca SBT ngy cng n nh v phong ph trong thi gian ti
sau gn 9 nm n lc trin khai cc d n h tr cho ngi nng dn trng ma trong khu
vc v chnh sch u t mnh vo pht trin vng nguyn liu v qu trnh thu mua bi
bn, nng cao nng sut trng ma. Theo bo co ca SBT, nng sut thu hoch ma ca
cng ty trong nm 2010 l 71,2 tn/ha cao hn nng sut trung bnh ngnh rt nhiu
(khong 60,5 tn/ha).
Cc sn phm ca SBT ngy cng a dng. Trong , duy nht Bourbon Ty Ninh
c kh nng sn xut 100% ng tinh luyn thng hng trc tip t ma. Nhn hiu
ng BonSu ca Bourbon Ty Ninh cng l nhn hiu ng siu sch duy nht ti Vit
Nam.
im yu:
Cng sut thit k ca nh my kh ln so vi tnh hnh nguyn liu trong nhng
nm gn y. Do vy, cha pht huy c ht cng sut sn xut ca nh my, lm chi
ph gi thnh sn phm cn tng i cao.
SBT hin ti ch tp trung nhiu vo mng bn s m b qua khu bn l. iu ny
lm gim bt t sut li nhun trn doanh thu ca sn phm ca cng ty.
Vn ch s hu ca SBT kh ln so vi qy m hot ng hin ti ca nh my, do
vy vn cha pht huy ht c tnh hiu qu ca vn u t ca cc c ng.
C hi:

GVHD: GV. HUNH TH CM H

Vi quyt nh 26/2007/Q-TTg ca Th tng Chnh ph trong vic ph duyt
quy hoch pht trin din tch trng ma n nm 2010 v nh hng n nm 2020, s
quy hoch pht trin din tch trng ma, nng sn lng ng trong c nc ln 1,5
triu tn/nm v b p phn cn thiu ht bng ng nhp khu s to iu kin cho
SBT vn hnh cng sut v cng c c hi nng cao gp i cng sut sn xut ca
nh my.
Nhu cu v ng trong nc cng nh trn th gii ngy cng gia tng, do vy
xu hng v gi ng s mang tnh n nh v tng trng trong tng lai gn cng l
mt tn hiu tt cho cc doanh nghip sn xut ng trong nc ni chung.
Lng ng sn xut trong nc vn thp hn nhu cu tiu th ni a, theo c
tnh nm 2011 nhu cu tiu th ng trong nc l khong 1,4 triu tn; trong khi sn
lng ng trong nc ti a ch t 1,3 triu tn. iu ny th hin mt tim nng tng
trng rt ln cho ngnh ma ng.
Mc cnh tranh trong ngnh s bt khc nghit do mt s nh my ng hot
ng khng hiu qu s b ng ca do vy ngun nguyn liu s phong ph hn.
Vi thit k ban u ca nh my vi cng sut tiu th ma 16.000 tn/ngy l c
hi cho SBT trong vic tng gp i cng sut sn xut ca nh my vi chi ph cng nh
thi gian thp hn nhiu so vi cc nh my ng phi xy mi. Do vy, s tng thm
kh nng ca SBT i vi cc doanh nghip khc trong ngnh cng nh m rng th
phn ca cng ty.
Hin ti, SBT vn cn nhiu c hi u t pht trin thm cc sn phm mi
lin quan n cy ma nh sn xut ethanol, phn bn hu c, nh my nhit in.
Dn s ca tnh Ty Ninh ln n hn 1 triu ngi, h thng giao thng ni
tnh v lin tnh hon chnh. Ty Ninh l ca ng thng thng ca Vit Nam c
Campuchia, ca khu Mc Bi c bit n nhiu qua ngoi giao v du lch, tuy nhin
ca khu Xamat mi chnh l con ng huyt mch kinh t gia 2 nc, hin ti, s thu
v thu nhp khu ti Xamat cao gp 5 ln ti ca khu Mc Bi. Vic pht trin khu
kinh t quc t ca khu Xamat l mt c hi ln cho SBT trin khai cc d n mi. Cc
d n m cng ty k bn ghi nh ng k u t vi tnh l nhng d n c tnh kh

GVHD: GV. HUNH TH CM H

thi rt cao, u thuc th mnh ca cng ty v ph hp vi nhu cu pht trin ca a
phng. Tnh y v UBND tnh Ty Ninh lun to mi iu kin thun li cng ty
tham gia u t cc d n khc nhm khai thc tim nng ca cng ty trn c s a dng
ha ngnh ngh kinh doanh.
Thch thc:
Vic gia nhp WTO c xu hng tng thm tnh cnh tranh ca ng ni vi
ng ngoi v vi tnh hnh hin nay th gi ng trong nc vn cao hn ng nhp
khu. Do vy cc doanh nghip sn xut ng trong nc s cn trin khai sm vic ti
c cu nh my gim thiu chi ph gi thnh sn xut ca thnh phm.
Tnh hnh lao ng ph thng ngy cng khan him do xu hng ca th trng lao ng
tp trung co nhng thnh ph ln cng s l p lc i vi ban lnh o ca cng ty.
Vic chp thun cho gia tng cng sut ca nh my ng trong nc trong tng lai
cng l nhng thch thc khng nh i vi cc nh my ng hin nay.
2.2.2. V Th Ca Cng Ty

Th Phn Ngnh Ma ng 2010

5,75%

6,42%
11,64%
3%

73,19%

SBT
LSS
BHS
NHS
Khc

Hin nay, SBT cho ra 2 dng sn phm ng khc nhau: ng tinh luyn
thng hng thng hiu BonSu loi ti 1kg vi tnh nng siu sch, em li s an ton
tuyt i cho sc khe ngi tiu dng. y l loi ng siu sch ch duy nht SBT c

GVHD: GV. HUNH TH CM H

kh nng sn xut. Hin nay, ng BonSu c mt ti hu ht cc siu th v cc ca
hng ti cc tnh thnh ln trong nc. ng tinh luyn thng hiu Mimosa loi bao
50kg phc v cho nhm khch hng cng nghip, dc phm, bnh ko cao cp. Tuy
c a ra th trng sau cc nhn hiu ng khc nhng Mimosa nhanh chng c
cc doanh nghip ln nh Vinamilk, Kinh , Bibica,... chn lm ng nguyn liu sn
xut sa v bnh ko.
Vi nhng li th nh vy, SBT c k vng s nhanh chng chim c mt
ch ng vng chc trong ngnh ma ng. Bn cnh , gi ng ca SBT cng kh
cnh tranh so vi gi ng ca cc doanh nghip khc.
Trong ngnh ng hin nay, cc i th ln trong mng th trng ng tinh
luyn ca SBT phi k n l cng ty c phn ng Bin Ha (BHS), Cng ty ng
Lam Sn (LSS), cng ty ng c phn ng Ninh Ha (NHS). Trong , cng ty c
phn ng Bin Ha chim 11,64% th phn, gn gp i SBT vi 5,75% th phn, hn
na BHS c 47 nm hot ng trong lnh vc ma ng. K n l cng ty ng
Lam Sn vi 6,42% th phn, y l cng ty c quy m vn kh ging vi SBT. Tuy
nhin, vi nhng th mnh v ngun vn, dy chuyn cng ngh hin i, i tin phong
trong vic sn xut sn phm cht lng cao. SBT c tim nng rt ln gia tng v th
trong ngnh ma ng Vit Nam.
2.2.3. Chin Lc Kinh Doanh
nh hng pht trin ca cng ty c phn ma ng Bourbon Ty Ninh l phn
u tr thnh doanh nghip hng u ca ngnh ma ng Vit Nam v khu vc v cht
lng sn phm v sn lng sn xut. t c mc tiu trn, cng ty s ch trng
pht trin v ngun nguyn liu, v v sinh an ton thc phm, v sinh mi trng, m
bo dung ha li ch ca ngi nng dn v nh my. y cng chnh l tinh thn ca
quyt nh s 26/2007/Q-TTg v vic ph duyt quy hoc pht trin ma ng n
nm 2010 v nh hng pht trin ngnh n nm 2020.
K hoch pht trin ca cng ty d kin cho nin v 2011-2012 l pht trin
ngun nguyn liu ma ang c, tng bc nng cng sut sn xut nh my ln 9.000
tn ma/ngy v ln 16.000 tn/ngy, t sn lng thnh phm 200.000 tn/nm khi

GVHD: GV. HUNH TH CM H

vng nguyn liu ma p ng c yu cu. Khi t c mc sn lng ny, cng ty s
s dng mt phn phc v cho xut khu, tham gia vo xu hng chung ca th gii,
p ng nhu cu ngy cng gia tng v ng trn th gii.
2.2.4. Ri Ro Kinh Doanh
2.2.4.1. Ri ro v kinh t:
Ri ro v kinh t l khi mt doanh nghip hay mt ngnh c th b nh hng xu
do nn kinh t ca quc gia c nhng bin ng suy thoi v c kh nng lm gim thu
nhp v nhng sn phm ca doanh nghip, do lm gim doanh thu v li nhun ca
doanh nghip. i vi cng ty C Phn Ma ng Bourbon Ty Ninh, cc sn phm
ca cng ty l nhng mt hng mang tnh thit yu i vi i sng hng ngy ca mi
ngi, c s dng trong nhiu lnh vc khc nhau nh tiu dng, n ung, thc phm,
nc ung, dc phm v c v lnh vc nng lng. Do vy, kh nng v mc nh
hng ca nn kinh t n cc sn phm ca cng ty c th ni l khng cao lm, ngay c
khi nn kinh t b suy gim hay khng hong. Tuy nhin, trong giai on hin nay, vi xu
hng nhu cu ng trong nc v trn th gii ang ngy cng gia tng cng l mt
iu kin thun li cho ngnh ma ng trong nc ni chung v cho cng ty ni ring.
Ri ro v li sut: i vi mt doanh nghip sn xut th ri ro li sut l ri ro
khi chi ph tr li vay ca doanh nghip cao hn kh nng to ra li nhun ca doanh
nghip v mc ri ro v li sut cng khc nhau gia cc ngnh vi nhau ty theo c
cu n vay ca cc ngnh . Hin ti, i vi ngnh ma ng trong nc th c cu t
l vn vay kh ln l do phi u t nhiu vo ti sn c nh. i vi cng ty c phn
Bourbon Ty Ninh, tng n vay ngn hn v di hn ca cng ty vo ngy 30/09/2011
ch l 291,18 t ng trn tng ti sn ca cng ty l 2.077 t ng (chim 14% tng ti
sn) thuc din thp nht so vi cc cng ty khc trong ngnh. Do , chi ph tr li vay
ca cng ty hin nay khng nh hng nhiu n kt qu hot ng sn xut kinh doanh
sau thu ca cng ty.
Ri ro v t gi hi oi: Ri ro v t gi l ri ro khi c s bin ng bt li v
t gi n gi thnh cc ngun nguyn liu u vo hoc gi bn cc thnh phm, tc
ng xu n li nhun ca cng ty. Hin ti nhn chung cc ngun nguyn liu m cng

GVHD: GV. HUNH TH CM H

ty ang s dng nh l ma nguyn liu, du DO v cc ph gia v ha cht s dng
trong qu trnh tinh lc ng u c cung cp theo gi tin ng Vit Nam v cc
thnh phm ca cng ty nh ng v ph phm l mt r cng c thanh ton bng
tin ng. Ch tr sn phm in bn cho Tp on in lc Vit Nam c tnh theo
ngoi t l ng USD. Tuy nhin, doanh thu v in thu c hng nm ca cng ty ch
vo khong 2% trn tng doanh thu. Do , nhng bin ng trong t gi c th xem nh
khng c nhng nh hng nghim trng n tnh hnh doanh thu v li nhun ca cng
ty.
2.2.4.2.

Ri Ro V Nguyn Vt Liu:

Trong giai on t nm 2008 tr v trc, hu ht cc nh my ng Vit Nam

chu tnh trng thiu ht ngun nguyn vt liu trm trng. i a s cc nh my ng
hot ng cm chng, di cng sut thit k.
Vic thiu ht ngun nguyn liu cho ngnh ng Vit Nam c th ni l do
nhiu nguyn nhn khch quan tc ng. Th nht, ngay t ban u, vi s qun l lng
lo trong vic lp k hoch pht trin ngnh ng, tng cng sut thit k ca tt c cc
nh my ng c cp php thnh lp vt xa so vi ngun cung ng nguyn liu ma
cc a phng. Th hai, s bin ng v gi ng trong nc cng nh quc t c
nhng nh hng khng nh n vic duy tr vic trng ma cung cp cho cc nh
my ng trong nc v c s cnh tranh gay gt gia cy ma v cc loi cy trng
khc nh cy cao su, cy sn, cy iu...lm gim din tch trng ma. Th ba, s cnh
tranh khng lnh mnh gia cc nh my ng vi nhau trong vic thu gom ma nguyn
liu trong giai on thiu ht nguyn liu lm cho gi ma tng k lc. Th d nh nm
2009 chi ph thu mua ma nguyn liu tng 30% v nm 2010 l 29%.
Chu nh hng chung ca tnh trng ca ngnh, trong giai on u SBT cng
gp khng t kh khn trong vic thu mua ma nguyn liu v cho nh my. Cng ty
nghin cu v vn dng nhiu bin php n nh ngun nguyn liu nh u t v ti
chnh cho cc h nng dn mua cy ging, phn bn, thu t trng trt, xy dng h
thng ti tiu, trin khai cng tc khuyn nng h tr cho nng dn trng ma v k
thut canh tc v trng trt. Tng bc nh vy n nay, cng ty to ra ngun cung

GVHD: GV. HUNH TH CM H

cp ma nguyn liu khong 1.200.000 tn/nm. Nh vy, v c bn n nay, ngun
nguyn liu u vo ca SBT dn n nh, m bo cho vic sn xut ca nh my.
2.2.4.3.

Ri Ro u T Vng Nguyn Liu:

Vi c th ca cng ty trong vic m bo ngun nguyn ma nguyn liu cho

sn xut, cng ty phi hp tc v cho ngi nng dn vay mua cy ging, phn
bn, h thng ti tiu hoc thu t... song song vi vic n nh ngun nguyn liu,
phng thc ny cng lm doanh nghip ng u vi mt s kh khn trong vic
thu hi cc khon u t t ngi nng dn. Trc y c mt s trng hp vic thu
hi cc khon u t cho cc h nng dn phi ko di trong nhiu nm, mt s b
tht thot v cng c mt s trng hp khng cn kh nng chi tr na. Hin nay, tng
gi tr u t cho ngi nng dn vo khong 244 t (11,7% tng ti sn). Cng ty th
hin trch lp d phng cc khon phi thu kh i i vi nhng khon nng dn vay
vi thi hn 1 nm tr ln. T l ny ca SBT trung bnh khon 3% trn tng gi tr u
t. n nay, cht lng cc khon cho nng dn vay tng bc c ci thin qua s
nh gi v sng lc hng nm. Cng ty ang n lc gim ti a t l khon phi thu kh
i ny trong tng lai.
Thng 03/2007, cng ty k hp ng lin kt pht hnh th bo lnh vi ngn
hng Sacombank. Theo , Sacombank s pht hnh th bo lnh n ca nng dn i
vi cng ty trn c s gi tr ti sn m bo ca nng dn ti ngn hng v hp ng u
t m cng ty k kt vi nng dn. ng thi ny gip gim thiu cc ri ro khi pht
sinh n kh i v nng cao trch nhim ca nng dn i vi cc cam kt k trn hp
ng u t.
2.2.4.4. Ri Ro V Php Lut:
Ri ro lut php l ri ro mang tnh h thng, c nh hng chung n ton ngnh.
Khi c nhng thay i trong chnh sch qun l v m ca chnh ph bao gm chm tr
trong vic cp php u t, trin khai d n, nhng thay i trong quy hoch pht trin
din tch trng ma... hoc chm tr thc hin cc cam kt u c nhng tc ng bt li
n tnh hnh hot ng sn xut kinh doanh ca cng ty.

GVHD: GV. HUNH TH CM H

Theo l trnh ct gim thu nhp khu ng theo hip nh thu quan u
(CEPT/AFTA) c hiu lc chung tham gia khu vc mu dch t do khi ASEAN n
nm 2010 l 5%, do ngnh ng trong nc khng cn c bo h nh trc y
khi mc thu sut trn l 30%. Bn cnh , hot ng bun lu qua bin gii cha c
qun l cht ch nh hng ti kh nng tiu th v gi ng ti Vit Nam. Nu hot
ng bun lu ng qua bin gii vn tip tc m cha c kim sot cht ch cng
vi chnh sch iu tit nhp khu ng thiu linh ng c th dn ti nhng kh khn
cho cc doanh nghip sn xut v kinh doanh ng.
2.2.4.5.

Ri Ro V Gi ng:

Mt trong nhng yu t c kh nng nh hng ng k n kt qu hot ng

kinh sn xut kinh doanh ca cc cng ty trong ngnh ng trong thi gian qua l
tnh hnh bin ng v gi ng. Trong nhng nm 1999 n 2001 hoc gn y nht l
nm 2007, gi ng b st gim nghim trng lm cc cng ty sn xut ng phi chu
thua l nng n. Tuy nhin t n nay, gi ng ang c du hiu phc hi v c xu
hng tng trng n nh. y l mt thun li cho cc doanh nghip ma ng trong
giai on sp ti.
2.2.4.6.

Cc Ri Ro Khc:

Ngoi cc yu t ri ro ni trn, cn c mt s ri ro mang tnh bt kh khng, t

c kh nng xy ra nhng nu xy ra s nh hng n hot ng ca cng ty nh: cc
hin tng thin tai, hn hn, bo lt, dch bnh, ha hon,... nh hng n sn lng
nguyn liu u va p ng cho nhu cu sn xut ca cng ty.
Cng ty lun thc hin nghim chnh cng tc an ton lao ng, phng chy n,
bo v mi trng; cng nh mua bo him cho con ngi, nh xng, my mc thit b,
vt t, thnh phm, bo him trch nhim i vi ngi th ba... hn ch nhng ri ro
ny trong hot ng kinh doanh ca mnh.

GVHD: GV. HUNH TH CM H

PHN TCH TI CHNH

3.1. Phn Tch T S Ti Chnh Cn Bn
30/09/2011
SBT

LSS

BHS

NHS

T s thanh ton hin hnh

3.13

3.25

1.23

1.21

T s thanh ton nhanh

2.30

2.54

0.44

0.98

Kh nng chi tr li vay

11.98

26.95

2.39

3.49

So snh mt vi t s ti chnh cn bn ca SBT vi mt s cng ty cng ngnh ta

thy:
T s thanh ton hin hnh ca SBT kh cao v ln hn 1. T s thanh ton hin
hnh ca SBT l 3,13 tc l c 1 ng n n hn tr th c 3,13 ng ti sn lu ng
m bo chi tr. T s ny ngang bng vi ca LSS l 3,25 v cao hn 2,5 ln so vi
BHS v NHS.
T s thanh ton nhanh ca SBT l 2,3: tc l c 2,3 ng ti sn c tnh thanh
khon cao m bo chi tr cho mt ng n n hn. T s ny kh tt, thm ch cao gp
2 n 5 ln so vi NHS v BHS.
Kh nng chi tr li vay cng l mt t s kh quan trng. N cho thy bao nhiu
ng li nhun ca cng ty c to ra p ng yu cu chi tr li vay. T s ny ca
SBT kh cao, ln n 11,98.
Qua mt vi cc t s ti chnh cn bn, ta c th thy rng tnh hnh ti chnh ca
SBT l kh kh quan v vng mnh.
Nn tng ti chnh vng chc l mt iu kin ct yu, quyt nh s thnh bi ca
cng ty trong tng lai.

GVHD: GV. HUNH TH CM H

PHN TCH KH NNG SINH LI
3.2. Phn Tch Doanh Thu
3.2.1. Ngun doanh thu ch yu ca SBT

C Cu Doanh Thu
Ca SBT 3Q/2011
Doanh
thu ti
chnh

Doanh
thu
khc

Doanh
thu bn
hng

Doanh
thu
khc

Doanh
thu ti
chnh

Doanh
thu bn
hng

C Cu Doanh Thu
Ca SBT 2009
Doanh
thu ti
chnh

C Cu Doanh Thu
Ca SBT 2010

Doanh
thu
khc

C cu doanh thu ca SBT t nm 2009

n 3 qu u 2011 hu nh khng i.
Trong , doanh thu bn hng cung
cp dch v chim trn 94%. iu ny
cho thy, doanh thu ca cng ty trong
nhng nm qua n ch yu t lnh vc

Doanh
thu bn
hng

kinh doanh chnh ca cng ty l ma

ng, chim khong 18% th phn
ng tinh luyn Vit Nam.
Ta s c ci nhn c th hn v ngun
doanh thu t cc sn phm c th ca
cng ty trong biu c cu doanh thu
sn phm bn di.

GVHD: GV. HUNH TH CM H

C Cu Doanh Thu Sn Phm 3Q/2011

2% 2%
8%

88%

Doanh thu ng

Doanh thu mt

Doanh thu in

Doanh thu khc

C Cu Doanh Thu Sn Phm 2010

2%
0%
9%

89%

Doanh thu ng

Doanh thu mt

Doanh thu in

Doanh thu khc

GVHD: GV.HUNH TH CM H
Sn phm chnh ca SBT l ng tinh luyn (R.E), ng tinh luyn siu sch
hiu BonSu v ph phm l mt r.Mt sn phm khc na ca SBT l in, c sn
xut t ngun nhin liu l b ma c thi ra trong quy trnh sn xut ng.
ng tinh luyn (R.E):c thng hiu l Mimosa sn xut theo tiu chun Chu
u, c s dng cho mc ch cho tiu dng c nhn v cng nghip. y l sn phm
chnh ca Cng ty, doanh thu ca sn phm ny chim xp x 90% tng doanh thu bn
hng v cung cp dch v.
ng tinh luyn vi tnh nng siu sch: hiu BonSu loi 1kg an ton tuyt i
cho ngi tiu dng, hin nay c phn phi n hu ht cc siu th v cc ca hng
ti cc thnh ph ln trong c nc.
Mt r: l mt ph phm ca SBT trong quy trnh sn xut ng, c dng cho
cc nh my sn xut bt ngt, cn... Doanh thu t sn phm ny chim trung bnh 8%
n 9% trn tng doanh thu bn hng v cung cp dch v ca Cng ty.
in sn xut: c tn dng t ngun nng lng t b ma trong qu trnh sn
xut ng, trung bnh chim t 2% n 3% tng doanh thu.
Nh vy qua c cu ngun doanh thu ca SBT, ta thy SBT s hu mt c cu
doanh thu n nh, da trn nn tng l lnh vc kinh doanh chnh ca cng ty. iu ny
th hin r cht lng ngun thu nhp ca cng ty.

GVHD: GV.HUNH TH CM H
3.2.2. Tnh bn vng ca s tng trng doanh thu

Tng Trng Doanh Thu

100.0
80.0
60.0
LSS

20.0

SBT

40.0

0.0
2007

2008

2009

2010

3Q/2011

-20.0
-40.0

Gi ng th th gii (Cent/lbs)
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Nhn vo biu tng trng doanh thu, ta thy doanh thu ca SBT lin tc tng
trng t nm 2009, v t mc tng trng kh cao nm 2010 l 43,3%; ba qu u
nm 2011 SBT cng t tc tng trng n tng 81,7%.
So snh tc tng trng doanh thu ca SBT vi LSS, trong giai on khng
hong kinh t SBT c mt s st gim v doanh thu nhng t nm 2009, SBT lin tc
vt mt LSS vi mc tng trng doanh thu n tng.

GVHD: GV.HUNH TH CM H
So snh nhng bin ng trong gi ng th th gii vi bin ng tng trng
doanh thu ca SBT, ta thy mt s tng quan r rt gia hai yu t ny. S d c tnh
trng nh vy v gi ng trong nc chu tc ng rt ln t gi ng th gii do Vit
Nam vn cn nhp khu mt phn lng ng t bn ngoi. Cho n nay, sn lng
ng sn xut trong nc vn cha p ng nhu cu tiu th ni a.
Ti th trng Vit Nam, gi ng tng t mc 8,000 ng/kg vo nm 2005 ln
n 12,000 ng/kg vo nm 2006 v gim xung 8,000 - 9,000 ng/kg vo nm 2007
sau tip tc tng mnh cho n cui nm 2010.T u nm 2010 ti nay, gi ng
lin tc tng cao, t mc 15,000 ng/kg hi u nm, leo ln n 18,500 ng/kg. C
thi im t ti 23,000 ng/kg. Chnh v vy, doanh thu 2010 ca SBT cng tng cao
cha tng thy. Thc t sn lng ng tiu th nm 2010 gim 8,3% so vi nm 2009;
nm 2010 l 59,338 tn nm 2009 l 64,713 tn nn doanh thu thun tng 43,3% hon
ton l do gi bn ng tng. Tng t, doanh thu nm 2009 tng 37% cng hon ton
l do s gia tng ca gi ng.
Ring 3 qu u nm 2011, mc tng trng doanh thu n tng 81,7% mt phn
l nh s gia tng trong gi bn. Tuy nhin, theo chng ti cho rng n cng xut pht
mt phn t s gia tng sn lng ng tiu th ca SBT. Theo k hoch sn lng
ng tiu th ca SBT nm 2011 l 80.000 tn tng 33% so vi mc sn lng tiu th
ca nm 2010 l 60.000 tn. Hn na, gi ng thi gian qua cng tng trng khong
30 40% ch khng th t mc tng trng 81,7%.
Nh vy, c th thy mc tng trng doanh thu n tng ca SBT trong 3 nm
qua phn ln l do nhng bin ng ca gi ng. S tng trng doanh thu nh vy
chc chn l khng bn vng do gi ng trong nc lin tc bin ng kh lng.
Vy liu SBT c duy tr c tc tng trng n tng trong thi gian sp ti
hay khng? Cu hi ny s c chng ti l gii mt phn thng qua qu trnh phn tch
nhng nn tng c bn v nhng tim nng ni ti ca SBT trong cc phn tip theo.

GVHD: GV.HUNH TH CM H
Nhng nn tng vng chc m SBT ang s hu:
Khch hng:
Sn phm ca SBT kh a dng c v chng loi v kch c. Do , i tng
khch hng ca SBT cng kh rng t cc doanh nghip ln, nh, ti cc c s sn xut
v c bit l ngui tiu dng c nhn. Trong , nhiu doanh nghip ni ting sn xut
bnh ko, sa, dc phm nh Vinamilk, Kinh , Bibica,... chn ng tinh luyn
ca SBT lm nguyn liu sn xut. y cng l mt nhn t quan trng ng gp vo s
n nh v bn vng trong doanh thu ca SBT.
Th trng tiu th:
Th trng ca SBT ch yu pha Nam v Nam Trung B. SBT ch yu bn s,
khch hng l cc doanh nghip thc phm, bnh ko v nc gii kht nh Pepsi, Red
Bull, bnh ko Perfecty, Vinamilk, Tribecov vy u ra cho sn phm tng i n
nh.
Cc li th cnh tranh
Thng hiu uy tn, cht lng:
SBT l mt trong nhng cng ty hng u ngnh ma ng v sn lng v cht
lng sn phm. Ch vi 10 nm hot ng trong ngnh SBT to cho mnh mt v th
kh vng chc, hin cng ty chim khong 18% th phn ng tinh luyn trong c nc.
Trnh cng ngh hin i, tin tin:
H thng nh my ca SBT c xy dng da trn tiu chun ca Chu u, s
dng cng ngh tin tin v hin i, c trang b h thng kim sot v iu khin t
ng hon ton; gip cng ty c th gim chi ph sn xut, ng thi cho ra nhng sn
phm c cht lng cao.

GVHD: GV.HUNH TH CM H
u ra cho sn phm tng i n nh:
Th trng ca SBT ch yu pha Nam v Nam Trung B. SBT ch yu bn s,
khch hng l cc doanh nghip thc phm, bnh ko v nc gii kht nh Pepsi, Red
Bull, bnh ko Perfecty, Vinamilk, Tribecov vy u ra cho sn phm tng i n
nh.
Tc ng ca mi trng kinh doanh ln doanh s:
S thay i ca mi trng kinh doanh c th tc ng theo chiu hng xu n
doanh thu ca SBT. l vo nm 2010, mt hng ng nm trong din ct gim thu
nhp khu v c mc thu sut mi l 5%, thay v mc 30% i vi ng th v 40%
i vi ng trng nh trc y. Trong khi , ngnh sn xut ng hin ang b xp
vo ngnh c kh nng cnh tranh thp do nng sut, cht lng thp hn so vi khu vc,
trong khi gi thnh ma v sn phm ng th li cao hn so vi cc nc trong khu
vc. V vy, ng Bourbon Ty Ninh gp ri ro ln khi hi nhp, khng c bo h
t nh nc nh trc, sn phm ca cng ty phi cnh tranh vi ng nhp khu c
cht lng cao hn v gi thnh r hn.
Th nhng, ti th trng Vit Nam, mt hng ng c nh gi l cu nhiu
hn cung v c xu hng ngy cng tng, cho nn, d ng ngoi c thm nhp vo
Vit Nam, th theo d bo, gi ng ti Vit Nam cng s giao ng trong khong
15.000 - 20.000 ng/kg. Do , mc nh hng n doanh s SBT l khng ln.
nh gi:
T nhng yu t v li th cnh tranh trn, khch hng, th trng tiu th v
yu t cnh tranh u ng h cho lp lun SBT c mt tim nng tng trng doanh thu
rt ln v c th dn n nh v sau. Mc d vn c yu t c kh nng e da doanh thu
ca SBT, tuy nhin mc nh hng c nh gi l khng cao. V vy, chng ta c
th lc quan v ln cng nh cht lng doanh thu ca SBT trong tng lai gn.

GVHD: GV.HUNH TH CM H
3.2.3. Mi quan h gia doanh thu, khon phi thu v hng tn kho
a. Mi quan h gia doanh thu v khon phi thu
c ci nhn khch quan v cc ch tiu ct yu ca SBT, chng ti so snh n
vi cc ch tiu tng ng ca cng ty c phn ma ng Lam Sn (LSS).
Ch Tiu So Snh
Doanh thu thun
Cc khon phi thu
% So vi doanh thu
thun
Vng quay khon phi
thu

SBT
LSS
3Q/2011
2010
2009 3Q/2011
2010
2009
1,439,453 1,104,252 770,617 1,454,725 1,338,243 1,099,578
344,768
274,224 133,420
838,502
418,018
159,197
23.95%

24.83%

17.31%

57.64%

31.24%

14.48%

4.18

4.03

5.78

1.73

3.20

6.91

Nhn vo bng trn c th thy, t l cc khon phi thu/ doanh thu ca SBT trong
nm 2010 v 3Q/2011 thp hn nhiu so vi LSS. Trong khi t s ny kh n nh bn
pha SBT ( t 17 23%) th li bin ng kh mnh bn pha LSS ( t 14,48% nm 2009
ln mc 57,64% ba qu u nm 2011). Vng quay khon phi thu ca SBT qu cao so
vi LSS, th hin chnh sch tn dng ca SBT i vi khch hng cn qu cht ch. C
th, vng quay khon phi thu ca SBT 3 qu u 2011 l 4,18 gp 2,4 ln vng quay
khon phi thu ca LSS l 1,73. iu ny, mt mt lm gim sc cnh tranh khch hng
ca cng ty so vi cc i th. Nhng mt khc, n cng cho thy tim nng tng trng
ca cng ty cn rt cao do cng ty cn d a kh ln trong vic ni lng tn dng i vi
khch hng.
b. Mi quan h gia doanh thu v hng tn kho
Ch Tiu So Snh
Doanh thu thun
Hng tn kho
Vng quay hng tn
kho

SBT
3Q/2011
2010
1,439,453 1,104,252
220,957
291,791
6.51

3.78

LSS
2009 3Q/2011
2010
770,617 1,454,725 1,338,243
299,758
326,422
149,241
2.57

4.46

8.97

2009
1,099,578
124,490
8.83

GVHD: GV.HUNH TH CM H

S vng quay hng tn kho ca SBT trong 3 nm qua tng rt nhanh (T 3,78 nm
2010 ln 6,51 ti thi im cui qu 3 nm 2011). Lng hng tn kho thp nh vy l
do nm 2010 v nm 2011 gi ng tng rt cao, lng ng sn xut li khng p
ng nhu cu trong nc nn cc doanh nghip tranh th bn lc gi cao khin lng
hng tn trong kho cn rt t.

GVHD: GV.HUNH TH CM H
3.3. Phn Tch Chi Ph

T trng Chi ph/ Doanh thu

80.00
70.00

60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
Chi ph bn hng (%)

2009
1.90

2010
1.53

3Q/2011
1.22

Chi ph qun l doanh nghip (%)

2.43

2.37

1.70

Gi vn hng bn (%)

73.56

65.15

68.87

Mc d doanh thu ca SBT rt ln nhng chi ph qun l doanh nghip v chi ph

bn hng ch chim mt phn rt nh trong tng doanh thu, chng t hiu qu trong vic
iu hnh doanh nghip v chin lc bn hng ca SBT l hp l.
Hn na, t trng so vi tng doanh thu ca chi ph qun l doanh nghip v chi
ph bn hng lin tc gim qua tng nm. ( chi ph bn hng t mc 1,9%/ Doanh thu
nm 2009 gim cn 1,22%/Doanh thu trong 3 qu u 2011 chi ph qun l doanh
nghip gim t mc 2,43%/ Doanh thu nm 2009 cn 1,7%/ Doanh thu trong 3 qu u
2011). N lc ct gim chi ph nh trn ng gp khng nh vo vic gia tng li nhun
ca cng ty. Qua , ci thin ROE v ROA.

GVHD: GV.HUNH TH CM H
Gi vn hng bn chim t trng ln trn tng doanh thu; do , bin ng trong
gi vn hng bn s dn n bin ng ln trong li nhun ca cng ty.
Ch Tiu

3Q/2011

3Q/2010

2010

-992,322

-493,821

-720,466

2009

2008

Gi vn hng bn v
cung cp DV

-567,746 -447,551

Gia tng trong gi vn

hng bn v CCDV

100.9%

26.9%

26.9%

-9.6%

Nm 2009, gi vn hng bn tnh trn mt n v sn phm tng 26,9% so vi

nm 2008 l do gi thu mua ma nguyn liu tng 30% v cc chi ph khc tng 6%.
Tng t, trong nm 2010 gi vn hng bn tng 26,9% so vi nm 2009 l do gi thu
mua nguyn liu tng 29% v cc chi ph khc tng 3%. V trong 3 qu u nm 2011
gi vn hng bn i ln mc 100,9% so vi nm trc.
Tuy gi vn hng bn lin tc leo thang, gy bt li cho hot ng sn xut kinh
doanh ca cng ty. Nhng nu nhn vo t trng gi vn hng bn/ tng doanh thu, ta
thy c mt n lc ct gim gi vn hng bn rt ng k; t 73,56% nm 2009 xung
cn 65,15% tng doanh thu nm 2010 v 68,87% ba qu u 2011. Nh chng ti
nhn mnh trn, gi vn hng bn chim t trng ln trong tng chi ph. Do , s ct
gim gi vn hng bn ng k nh vy s ng gp khng nh vo li nhun ca cng
ty.
Vi li th ngun vn ln v kh nng t ch v ti chnh, cng ty ch ng
m rng u t vo my mc hin i, y mnh u t cho nng dn, xy dng quy
trnh thu mua ma nguyn liu bi bn, qua dn n nh ngun nguyn liu u vo.
S u t quy m v chin lc ni trn gip SBT tr thnh doanh nghip ma ng
c nng sut thu hoch cao nht hin nay (theo bo co nm 2010 l hn 71 tn/ha), cao
hn rt nhiu so vi nng sut trung bnh ngnh (60,5 tn/ ha). l nguyn do ti sao
gi vn hng bn ca cng ty c ct gim ng k trong 3 nm qua.

GVHD: GV.HUNH TH CM H
3.4. Phn Tch T Sut V Kh Nng Sinh Li
Ch Tiu So Snh
ROS
ROE
ROA
Tng N/Tng Ti
Sn

3Q/2011
27.5%
22.2%
19.1%

SBT
2010
31.2%
19.3%
17.6%

2009
27.2%
12.7%
11.4%

14.0%

8.5%

10.7%

3Q/2011
20.4%
23.5%
15.0%

LSS
2010
22.4%
25.6%
19.5%

2009
14.4%
23.6%
16.0%

36.4%

23.4%

32.1%

T s Li nhun sau thu/ Doanh thu (ROS) ca SBT trong 3 nm qua cao hn
hn LSS. ROS ca SBT kh cao v n nh ( trn 27%). Bn cnh t s Li nhun sau
thu/ Tng ti sn (ROA) ca SBT tng dn qua cc nm v vt LSS trong 3 qu u
nm 2011 (19,1% so vi 15%). Tuy nhin, t s Li nhun sau thu/ Vn c phn (ROE)
ca SBT li thp hn ca LSS. S d nh vy l v LSS s dng n by kh cao so vi
SBT, gn gp 3 ln ( 3 qu u nm 2011 n by ca LSS l 36,4%; cn ca SBT ch l
14%).
Tuy s dng n by thp hn LSS nhng ROE ca SBT ci thin dn qua cc
nm khi cng ty tng dn n by. n tng hn, nm 2011 ROE ca SBT l 22,2% gn
bng ROE ca LSS l 23,5% mc d t l n by ch bng 1/3 so vi i th. iu ny
cho thy, cng ty c ngun lc ti chnh kh vng mnh, kh nng c lp ti chnh cao.
Do t l n by ca SBT cn kh thp nn cng ty c th gia tng n vay, ti tr cho
nhu cu tng trng ca mnh; qua , lm tng t sut sinh li trn vn ch s hu
(ROE) ca cng ty.

GVHD: GV.HUNH TH CM H
SBT

LSS

Ch Tiu So Snh
3Q/2011

2010

2009

3Q/2011

2010

2009

19.1%

17.6%

11.4%

15.0%

19.5%

16.0%

Hiu sut s dng ti

sn

0.69

0.56

0.42

0.73

0.87

1.11

Hiu sut s dng ti

sn c nh

2.24

1.61

1.03

3.62

5.72

5.59

ROA

Nh phn tch trn, ta thy t sut sinh li trn doanh thu (ROS) ca SBT cao
hn hn LSS nhng ROA ca cng ty trong nm 2009 v 2010 li thp hn LSS. Vy
nguyn nhn l g?
Nhn vo hiu sut s dng ti sn ca ca SBT, ta thy rng hiu sut s dng ti
sn ca SBT thp hn hn LSS, thm ch nm 2009 ch s ny ch bng 1/3 ca LSS (
trong khi 1$ ti sn ca LSS c th to ra 1,11$ doanh thu th 1$ ti sn ca SBT ch c
th to ra 0,42$ doanh thu).
C th hn ta so snh hiu sut s dng ti sn c nh ca hai cng ty ny, trong
2 nm 2009 v 2010, trong khi 1$ ti sn c nh ca LSS c th to ra ln lt l 5,59$
v 5,72$ th ca SBT ch l 1,03$ v 1,61$; ch bng 1/4 n 1/5 ln. Nguyn nhn l do,
SBT u t kh nhiu my mc hin i, cng sut thit k ln nhng do ngun nguyn
liu thiu v khng n nh nn cng sut hot ng thc t ch t khon 60% - 70%,
gy lng ph my mc v ti sn c nh.
Tuy nhin, nu nhn mt tch cc ca cc t s ny ta s thy hiu sut s dng ti
sn v ti sn c nh c ci thin qua tng nm. C th, nm 2011 hiu sut s dng
ti sn ca SBT l 0,69 tc l c 1$ ti sn c th to ra 0,69 $ doanh thu, gn bng vi
LSS khi ch s ny l 0,73. Hiu sut s dng ti sn c nh nm 2011 l 2,24 thu hp
khong cch vi LSS l 3,62. Qua , ROA ca SBT cng c ci thin v vt qua
LSS trong 3 qu u nm 2011. Nhng s ci thin ny l hiu qu ca ch trng v

GVHD: GV.HUNH TH CM H
chin lc u t vo vng nguyn liu v n nh ngun thu mua ca SBT trong nhng
hai nm gn y.

GVHD: GV.HUNH TH CM H
PHN TCH TRIN VNG V D PHNG KT QU KINHDOANH CA SBT
DOANH CA SBT
Phn tch trin vng s cho chng ta c c ci nhn r nt v tng lai ca cng ty c
phn ng SBT, cng l bc u chng ta tin hnh nh gi SBT.
Da trn bng bo co kt qu hot ng kinh doanh nm 2006 cho n hin nay, ta s
tnh c cc t s sau y:
Tng Trng (%)
2010 2009
2008
81.7
43.3
37.0
21.2
29.9
130.0

2007
-16.5
608.2

2006
-0.8
-148.0

81.7

44.7

43.3

-16.5

-0.8

100.9
49.8
174.0
256.6

92.1
62.5
48.4
184.0

26.9
89.2
71.2
17.8

26.9
-9.6
76.0
-35.6
-44.2
30.6
-59.8 36788.3

2.5
-9.0
113.6
-91.3

93.2
58.1
28.3

93.2
46.3
30.0

159.1
15.0
39.6

294.4
-4.0
-3.7

31.7
2.1
18.0

-7.1
48.9
28.2

49.3
-99.2
-98.5
-99.6
49.6
51.2

55.2
-100.0
-100.0
-100.0
55.0
54.6

66.1
-70.4
-42.1
-85.3
63.9
64.4

165.2
699.2
620.2
750.7
167.8
157.6

-56.0
5.7
-16.8
27.3
-55.9
-57.4

-0.8
31.7
-47.5
-402.1
-0.6
-0.6

Cc t s
Doanh thu BH + CCDV
Cc Khon gim tr DT
Doanh thu thun v BH +
CCDV
Gi vn hng bn v cung cp
DV
Li nhun gp
Doanh thu hot ng ti chnh
Chi ph ti chnh
Li nhun t hot ng ti
chnh
Chi ph li vay
Chi ph bn hng
Chi ph qun l doanh nghip
Li nhun thun t hot
ng kinh doanh
Thu nhp khc
Chi ph khc
Li nhun khc
Tng li nhun trc thu
Li nhun sau thu

3Q/2011
81.7
231.4

T cc t s trong qu kh (2006 - 2011), ta nhn thy:

36.9

GVHD: GV.HUNH TH CM H
Cc s liu trong nm 2008 bin ng bt thng l do trong nm ny, cng ty b nh
hng nhiu bi cuc khng hong ti chnh, do , phn d phng s ly cc t s n
nh trc
D phng:
V thu sut thu TNDN ca cng ty c phn ng Bin Ha, bo co thuyt minh cng
b cho thy:

THU SUT THU TNDN

CA SBT

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

Da trn kt qu phn tch kh nng sinh li trong phn trc, ta c th c lng c

mc tng trng doanh thu trong cc nm sau:

Tc tng trng doanh thu

c tnh

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

21%

21%

21%

21%

21%

Chng ta s tin hnh d phng kt qu hot ng kinh doanh theo th t sau y:

Bc 1: D phng doanh thu (da trn tc tng trng doanh thu c tnh).
Bc 2: D phng mc gim tr doanh thu.
Bc 3: D phng gi vn hng bn.
c lng c mc li nhun gp cc nm sau.
Bc 4: D phng doanh thu hot ng ti chnh bng cch ly trung bnh di ng
trong 5 nm v cho n c nh trong nhng nm tip theo.
Bc 5: D phng li vay hng nm bng tch ca li vay c lng v tng n vay
d phng trong bng cn i k ton.

GVHD: GV.HUNH TH CM H
Bc 6: D phng chi ph ti chnh s d trn t s chi ph ti chnh/chi ph li vay v
chi ph li vay d phng.
Bc 7: D phng chi ph bn hng v chi ph qun l doanh nghip.
D phng li nhun thun cc nm sau.
Bc 8: Doanh thu khc v chi ph khc c gi nh l n nh ln lt mc
2262.5 t ng v 1316 t ng.
=> D phng c li nhun trc thu v li nhun rng sau thu.
Lm theo cc bc , chng ta c c bng d phng chi tit kt qu hot ng kinh
doanh trang sau.

GVHD: GV.HUNH TH CM H
4.1. D Phng Kt Qu Kinh Doanh Giai on 2012 2016
4.1.1. c Lng Kt Qu Hot ng Kinh Doanh C Nm 2011
VT: Triu ng

3Q/2010

3Q/2011

2011(E)

792,791

1,440,795

2,009,643

(405)

(1,342)

(1,872)

792,386

1,439,453

2,007,771

(493,821)

(992,322)

(1,384,106)

298,565

447,131

623,665

9,702

9,563

21,068

Chi ph bn hng

(11,193)

(17,695)

(24,681)

Chi ph qun l doanh nghip

Li nhun thun t hot ng kinh
doanh

(19,038)

(24,430)

(34,075)

277,897

414,808

573,942

Thu nhp khc

670,919

5,669

5,669

(288,215)

(4,200)

(4,200)

Li nhun khc

382,703

1,468

1,469

Tng li nhun trc thu

278,280

416,276

575,411

Li nhun sau thu

262,289

396,639

535,132

Doanh thu BH + CCDV

Cc Khon gim tr DT
Doanh thu thun v BH + CCDV
Gi vn hng bn v cung cp DV
Li nhun gp
Li nhun t hot ng ti chnh

Chi ph khc

Da trn bo co kt qu hot ng kinh doanh 3 qu u nm 2011 cng vi

nhng iu kin, tnh hnh v c trng ngnh ma ng trong qu 4 nm 2011 chng
ti a ra nhng gi nh c lng cc ch tiu trn bng bo co kt qu kinh doanh
c nm 2011 nh sau:

GVHD: GV.HUNH TH CM H
Chng ti c lng doanh thu cho c nm 2011 bng cch ly doanh thu
3Q/2011 nhn vi t l (doanh thu c nm 2010 chia cho doanh thu 3Q/2010).
Cc khon gim tr doanh thu, gi vn hng bn, chi ph bn hng v chi ph qun
l doanh nghip trong qu 4/2011 tng cng mt t l vi tng trng doanh thu trong
qu 4/2011. Nh vy, cc ch tiu ny c tnh bng cch ly s liu ca 3Q/2011 nhn
vi t l (doanh thu 2011(E) c c lng trn chia cho doanh thu 3Q/2011).
Li nhun t hot ng ti chnh nhng nm qua c nhiu bin ng; do ,
n gin chng ti c lng li nhun t hot ng ti chnh c nm 2011bng vi li
nhun hot ng ti chnh trung bnh giai on 2006 2010.
Thu nhp khc v chi ph khc l cc khon thu nhp v chi ph khng thng
xuyn nh thanh l, nhng bn ti sn c nh. Do , chng ti gi nh thu nhp khc
v chi ph khc khng pht sinh trong qu 4/2011. Vy, thu nhp khc v chi ph khc c
nm 2011 s bng 3Q/2011.

GVHD: GV.HUNH TH CM H
4.1.2. D Phng Kt Qu Kinh Doanh Giai on 2012 2016
VT: Triu ng

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2,431,668

2,942,318

3,560,205

4,307,848

5,212,496

(2,265)

(2,741)

(3,316)

(4,012)

(4,855)

2,429,403

2,939,578

3,556,889

4,303,836

5,207,641

(1,712,381)

(2,071,980)

(2,507,096)

(3,033,587)

(3,670,640)

Li nhun gp
Li nhun t hot ng ti
chnh

717,022

867,597

1,049,793

1,270,249

1,537,001

21,068

21,068

21,068

21,068

21,068

Chi ph bn hng

(41,338)

(50,019)

(60,523)

(73,233)

(88,612)

Chi ph qun l doanh nghip

(53,497)

(64,731)

(78,325)

(94,773)

(114,675)

Li nhun thun t HKD

643,255

773,914

932,012

1,123,311

1,354,782

2,263

2,263

2,263

2,263

2,263

(1,316)

(1,316)

(1,316)

(1,316)

(1,316)

947

947

947

947

947

Tng li nhun trc thu

644,201

774,861

932,959

1,124,257

1,355,728

Li nhun sau thu

483,151

581,146

699,719

843,193

1,016,796

Doanh thu BH + CCDV

Cc Khon gim tr DT
Doanh thu thun v BH +
CCDV
Gi vn hng bn v cung cp
DV

Thu nhp khc

Chi ph khc
Li nhun khc

a. D Phng Doanh Thu

Ta c S = P x Q
Theo d liu thng k v gi ng th gii trong 5 nm qua, mi nm gi ng
tng trng trung bnh 12,1%/nm. T , chng ti gi nh gi ng trong nc cng
tng tng ng vi gi ng th gii. Th nht, l do gi ng Vit Nam hin nay chu
tc ng rt ln t gi ng th gii, do hng nm Vit Nam vn cn nhp khu mt
lng ng t nc ngoi p ng nhu cu ng trong nc. Th hai, l m

GVHD: GV.HUNH TH CM H
bo tnh thn trng trong vic tnh ton, do s thay i ca gi ng c tc ng rt ln
n tng trng doanh thu ca ngnh ng trong nhng nm qua; thng th gi ng
trong nc bin ng rt mnh so vi gi ng th gii. C th, nm 2009 v 2010 gi
thu mua nguyn liu tng t 27 30%/ nm, gi bn ng li thng tng trng mnh
hn gi ng. Th ba, l do hn ch v thu thp d liu gi ng Vit Nam.
Theo k hoch sn lng ng tiu th ca SBT trong bo co hi ngh ma
ng 2011 v trong bo co thng nin nm 2010 th sn lng ng tiu th ca
SBT nm 2011 d kin l 80.000 tn, n 2015 l 109.000 tn. T s liu ny, chng ti
tnh c tc tng trng sn lng tiu th ca SBT trung bnh l 8%/nm cho 5 nm
tip theo (2012 2016).
Nh vy, t tng trng gi v sn lng tiu th trn, chng ti c tnh doanh
thu ca SBT s tng trng trung bnh 21% (1,121 x 1,08).
Kim nh li gi nh ca chng ti trn, chng ti nhn thy gi nh tng
trng doanh thu 21%/nm rt ph hp vi tc tng trng doanh thu bnh qun 5
nm qua ca SBT (2006 2011). Chng ti tnh tc tng trng doanh thu bnh qun
5 nm qua (2006 2011) nh sau:
Doanh thu c lng ca chng ti cho nm 2011 trn l tng trng 81,7%.
Tuy nhin, con s ny ch yu xut pht t s bin ng mnh ca gi bn trong qu
2/2011. Nn phn thn trng v khch quan chng ti gii nh tng trng doanh thu
ca SBT nm 2011l 44,7% (c tnh da trn k hoch doanh thu ca SBT nm 2011
l 1.600 t, doanh thu tnh n 3 qu u nm 2011 t mc 1.440 t nn vic hon
thnh hoc thm ch vt mc k hoch nm l kh thi). T , chng ti tnh tc tng
trng doanh thu bnh qun 5 nm qua vo khong 21,5%. Gn bng vi con s d
phng 21%/nm ca chng ti trn.
b. D Phng Gi Vn Hng Bn
T trng gi vn hng bn/doanh thu ca SBT c ci thin ng k trong 2 nm
qua, nh hiu qu t qu trnh u t vo ngun nguyn liu v u t cho ngi trng
ma. Tuy nhin thn trng trong nh gi d phng, chng ti gi nh t trng gi

GVHD: GV.HUNH TH CM H
vn hng bn/ doanh thu cho 5 nm tip theo (2012 2016) bng t trng gi vn hng
bn/ doanh thu bnh qun giai on 2006 2011. Trong , chng ti loi t trng ca
nm 2008 ra khi s tnh ton ny, do nm 2008 t trng gi vn hng bn/ doanh thu l
79,4%; con s ny qu cao v khng cn ph hp vi tnh hnh hin ti ca SBT.
Qua , tnh c t trng gi vn hng bn/ doanh thu bnh qun 2006 2011 l
70,42%.
c. D phng thu nhp khc v chi ph khc
Nh phn tch trn, thu nhp khc v chi ph khc l nhng khon khng thng
xuyn v chim t trng rt nh. Do , chng ti d phng n gin cho 5 nm tip theo
theo mt con s c nh l bnh qun ca giai on 2006 2011.
d. D Phng Li Nhun T Hot ng Ti Chnh
Li nhun t hot ng ti chnh cho 5 nm tip theo chng ti cho bng vi con
s ca nm 2011 c c lng trn l 21,068 t.
e. D phng chi ph bn hng v chi ph qun l doanh nghip
Chi ph bn hng v chi ph qun l doanh nghip nhng nm qua ca SBT rt tt
v lin tc ct gim trong nhng nm gn y.
Vi quan im thn trng, chng ti gi nh t trng ca 2 loi chi ph trn so vi
tng doanh thu bng vi t trng ca chng trong giai on (2006-2011). ng thi,
chng ti cng loi nm 2008 ra khi s tnh ton, do nm ny t trng cao t bin so
vi cc nm khc.
f.

D Phng Li Nhun Sau Thu TNDN

K t nm 2011, SBT s khng cn nhn c nhng u i v thu nh trc

y. Do , thu sut thu TNDN m SBT s phi np l 25%.

4.2. D phng bng cn i k ton
Quy trnh d phng ca chng ta s c tin hnh qua cc bc sau:
Bc 1: D phng cc khon n ngn hn bng cch cho n ngn hn tng cng vi
tc tng trng doanh thu, n di hn cho khng i

GVHD: GV.HUNH TH CM H
Bc 2: D phng vn ch s hu tng theo tc tng trng li nhun sau thu tr
i c tc hng nm (gi nh l 20%).
Bc 3: D phng ti sn di hn bng cch cho TSC tng 10% mt nm, cc
khon khc gi nh khng i.
=> D phng c ti sn ngn hn (tr tin mt)
Bc 4: D phng khon phi thu di hn bng cch s dng trung bnh di ng
trong 5 nm.
Bc 5: Cc khon muc ngn hn khc xem nh khng tng trng; khon phi thu,
hng tn kho gi nh tng cng tc vi doanh thu.
Bc 6: Cn i tin mt
TI SN

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Ti Sn Ngn Hn
Tin v cc khon
tng ng tin
Cc khon u t ti
chnh ngn hn

830,186

1,004,525 1,215,475 1,470,725 1,779,577 2,153,289

5,783

6,997

8,467

10,245

12,396

15,000

253,256

253,256

253,256

253,256

253,256

253,256

Cc khon phi thu

344,768

417,169

504,775

610,778

739,041

894,239

Hng tn kho

220,957

267,358

323,503

391,439

473,641

573,106

Ti sn ngn hn khc

5,422

5,422

5,422

5,422

5,422

5,422

Ti Sn Di Hn
Cc khon u t ti
chnh di hn

1,246,954 1,311,257 1,381,990 1,459,797 1,545,384 1,639,530

499,672

499,672

499,672

499,672

499,672

499,672

Ti sn di hn khc
Cc khon phi thu di
hn

4,252

4,252

4,252

4,252

4,252

4,252

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

Ti sn c nh
Khu hao

643,030
64,303

707,333
70,733

778,066
77,807

855,873
85,587

941,460
94,146

1,035,606
103,561

GVHD: GV.HUNH TH CM H
Tng Cng Ti Sn
NGUN VN

2,077,140 2,559,786 3,086,255 3,683,069 4,401,515 5,267,136

N Phi Tr

290,180

345,813

413,129

494,581

593,138

712,393

N ngn hn

264,919

320,552

387,868

469,320

567,877

687,132

N di hn

25,261

25,261

25,261

25,261

25,261

25,261

Vn Ch S Hu

1,786,960 2,213,973 2,673,126 3,188,488 3,808,376 4,554,743

Vn ch s hu

1,786,960 1,786,960 1,786,960 1,786,960 1,786,960 1,786,960

Li nhun gi li
Ngun kinh ph v qu
khc
TNG CNG
NGUN VN

427,013

459,154

515,361

619,889

746,367

899,406

2,077,140 2,559,786 3,086,255 3,683,069 4,401,515 5,267,136

4.3. D phng bo co lu chuyn tin t

V mc nh nh gi nn cng vic d phng bo co lu chuyn tin t l rt cn
thit.Tuy nhin c nhiu hng mc kh khn trong vic d phng v tnh km chnh xc
trong thi gian di, do nhm ch d phng nhng khon mc cn thit tin hng
xy dng dng tin FCFF.
Ngoi ra, ta cng nhn thy mt iu rng, vic d phng bng cn i k ton
cng c xem nh l d phng lu chuyn tin mt trong di hn, v ti khon tin mt
trong bng cn i k ton l phn cui cng ca qu trnh d phng.
Chnh v nhng l do , chng ti khng tin hnh d phng lu chuyn tin t.
Tuy nhin, nhng g d phng c trong bng cn i k ton v bng kt qu hot
ng kinh doanh cng gip chng ta tin n bc cui cng ca vic phn tch mt
cng ty: nh gi doanh nghip.
4.4. nh gi cng ty bng phng php FCFF

GVHD: GV.HUNH TH CM H
Sau khi phn tch cng ty, chng ti tin hnh nh gi cng ty ma ng Bourbon Ty
Ninh. Tin trnh nh gi c thc hin qua 3 bc:
c lng dng tin hot ng
c lng chi ph s dng vn
Tnh gi tr cng ty v gi mt c phn
Chng ti nh gi cng ty Bourbon Ty Ninh da trn phng php dng tin t do ca
cng ty (FCFF). Do , chng ti tin hnh c lng chi ph s dng vn bnh qun l
t l chit khu:
Tnh ton chi ph s dng vn bnh qun (WACC)
Chi ph s dng vn bnh qun (WACC) c tnh ton nh sau:

Do c lng WACC yu cu chng ta phi tnh ton cu trc vn ca

doanh nghip, chi ph s dng n v chi ph s dng vn c phn.
Chng ti dng m hnh nh gi ti sn vn (CAPM) l mt m hnh ph bin
tnh chi ph s dng vn c phn:

4.4.1. o lng h s beta

Beta ca chng khon l h s o lng nhay cm gia TSSL gia chng
khon vi TSSL th trng. Do , chng ta c th c lng beta bng cch dng

GVHD: GV.HUNH TH CM H
phng php hi quy OLS gia t sut sinh li ca chng khon SBT vi t sut sinh li
ca Vn-index

SBT c nim yt trn sn HOSE t ngy 5/2/2008. tnh ton hi quy h s

beta ca SBT, chng ti tp hp d liu gi hng thng ca SBT t ngy 5/2/2008 n
30/7/2011 v o lng TSSL theo thng. Tng t, chng ti chn gi tr VN-Index
i din cho TSSL hng thng ca danh mc th trng trong khong thi gian tng t.
TSSL c o lng nh l mt ch s tch ly, iu ny c ngha l n bao gm c c
tc v li vn, v d TSSL mt thng I ca c phiu c nh ngha nh l:

y Pi l gi vo lc cui thng I v Pi-1 l gi vo lc cui thng trc v Di l c

tc (c th l tin mt hoc c phiu).
Hi quy beta ca SBT theo cng thc:
RSBTt =

+ SBTrVN-Index +

Trong :
RSBT,t : TSSL hng thng ca SBT
: H s chn
SBT: beta Bourbon Ty Ninh
rVN-Index : TSSL hng thng ca VN-Index
: sai s

Kt qu hi quy:
RSBT = 0.0052 + 0.9229RVN-Index , R2 = 0.5409

GVHD: GV.HUNH TH CM H
H s beta ca SBT c c lng t hi quy l 0.9229 vi sai s chun 0.1296. Kt
qu hi quy c ngha thng k mc ngha 95%
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.7355
R Square
0.5409
Adjusted R
Square
0.5302
Standard Error
0.0940
Observations
45
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
1 0.447749324
43 0.380001051
44 0.827750376
Standard
Error

Coefficients
Intercept
X Variable 1

0.0052 0.014036574
0.9229 0.129661322

Significance
MS
F
F
0.447749324 50.66623073 8.68556E-09
0.008837234

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%
0.372151537 0.711607885 0.023083716
7.118021546 8.68556E-09 0.661445108

Bng: Vn-Index v gi c phiu SBT vo cui thng, c tc tin mt v c tc c

phn, TSSL hng thng
SBT
Ngy

VNindex

Gi iu
chnh

29/02/2008
31/03/2008
29/04/2008
30/05/2008
30/06/2008
31/07/2008
29/08/2008

663.3
516.85
522.36
414.1
399.4
451.36
539.1

17.42
10.52
12.25
10.32
10.23
8.84
9.3

C tc
tin
mt

12%

Pht
hnh
thm
CP

Mua
lai CP

TSSL
TSSL_SBT
Vn-index

-22.08%
1.07%
-20.73%
-3.55%
13.01%
19.44%

-39.61%
16.44%
-15.76%
-0.87%
-13.59%
5.20%

GVHD: GV.HUNH TH CM H
30/09/2008
31/10/2008
28/11/2008
31/12/2008
23/01/2009
27/02/2009
31/03/2009
29/04/2009
29/05/2009
30/06/2009
31/07/2009
31/08/2009
30/09/2009
30/10/2009
30/11/2009
31/12/2009
29/01/2010
26/02/2010
31/03/2010
29/04/2010
31/05/2010
30/06/2010
30/07/2010
31/08/2010
30/09/2010
29/10/2010
30/11/2010
31/12/2010
28/01/2011
28/02/2011
31/03/2011
29/04/2011
31/05/2011
30/06/2011
29/07/2011
31/08/2011
30/09/2011
31/10/2011
30/11/2011

456.7
347.05
314.74
315.62
303.21
245.74
280.67
321.63
411.64
448.29
466.76
546.78
580.9
587.12
504.12
494.77
481.96
496.9
499.24
542.37
507.44
507.14
493.91
455.08
454.52
452.63
451.59
484.66
510.6
461.37
461.13
480.08
421.37
432.54
405.7
419.26
428.1
422.1
382.9

10.23
8.84
8.48
7.83
6.82
4.88
5.9
7.55
9.77
11.24
11.33
13.82
13.63
13.17
10.87
10.32
10.59
10.5
11.61
12.34
10.96
10.41
10.69
10.04
10.23
11.33
11.15
12.44
13.08
11.52
11.7
10.78
9.21
9.67
10.41
12.25
12.16
11.79
11

5%

1.50%

10%

8%
220%

10%

-15.28%
-24.01%
-9.31%
0.28%
-3.93%
-18.95%
14.21%
14.59%
27.99%
8.90%
4.12%
17.14%
6.24%
1.07%
-14.14%
-1.85%
-2.59%
3.10%
0.47%
8.64%
-6.44%
-0.06%
-2.61%
-7.86%
-0.12%
-0.42%
-0.23%
7.32%
5.35%
-9.64%
-0.05%
4.11%
-12.23%
2.65%
-6.21%
3.34%
2.11%
-1.40%
-9.29%

10.00%
-13.59%
-4.07%
-7.67%
-12.90%
-28.45%
20.90%
27.97%
29.40%
15.05%
0.80%
21.98%
-1.37%
-3.37%
-17.46%
-5.06%
2.62%
-0.85%
10.57%
6.29%
-11.18%
-5.02%
2.69%
-6.08%
1.89%
10.75%
-1.59%
11.57%
5.14%
-11.93%
1.56%
-7.86%
-14.56%
4.99%
7.65%
17.68%
-0.73%
-3.04%
-6.70%

GVHD: GV.HUNH TH CM H

4.4.2. o lng li sut phi ri ro v phn b ri ro th trng

Bi v chng ti chn Vn-Index l danh mc th trng, chng ta o lng TSSL
lch s ca VN-Index. V chng ti chn li sut phi ri ro l li sut tri phiu chnh ph
k hn 2 nm.
Phn b ri ro th trng c tnh ton nh l s khc bit gia TSSL lch s ca
th trng v li sut tri phiu chnh ph.Chng ti dng trung bnh ton hc tnh
ton TSSL lch s ca th trng.Vn-index c xy dng t thi k 2000 2011. Li
sut lch s tri phiu cng c tnh ton theo cng phng php v cng thi k.
Bng: Phn b ri ro th trng
Year
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Trung bnh s hc
lch chun
Phn b ri ro th
trng
Beta

Tri phiu chnh ph 2 nm

(%)
6.85
7.33
8.2
8.3
8.42
8.6
8.1
15.3
9.92
11.1
12.5
9.51
2.53
9.03
0.92

Vn-Index
(%)
13.81
-22.12
-8.94
43.34
28.51
144.48
23.31
-65.95
56.76
-2.04
-7.16
18.55
53.58

GVHD: GV.HUNH TH CM H

Li sut tri phiu chnh ph lch s k hn 2 nm l 9.51%

TSSL lch s ca VN-Index l 18.55%
Phn b ri ro th trng l 18.55% - 9.51% = 9.03%
Vi cc kt qu t c trn, chng ti tnh ton c chi ph s dng vn c phn
ca SBT l 17.85% da vo m hnh CAPM nh sau:
9.51% + 0.9229 x 9.03% = 17.85%
Chi ph n
Chng ti quyt nh s dng chi ph vay n trung bnh cc t chc tn dng lm
chi ph s dng n.iu ny tuy c sai st nhng khng ng k.
Li sut ngn hng hin nay khong 20%/nm v chng ti dng chi ph n ny
nh l chi ph n ca SBT.
Cu trc vn ca SBT:
Trong nhng nm gn y, t trng n ca cng ty lun c duy tr mc thp
khong 10%/ tng ngun vn.Trong , n ngn hn chim t trng ln, n di hn ch
chim khong 8% trn tng s n (chim 2%/tng ngun vn). Do , da trn c s cu
trc vn lch s v d on cho nhng nm tip theo cng ty duy tr t l n khong
15%/ tng s vn, phn cn li 85% l vn c phn.
Nm
Tng ti sn
Ti sn ngn hn
Ti sn di hn
Ngun vn
N
N ngn hn
N di hn
Vn ch s hu

2006
1,519,125
566,729
952,397
1,519,125
99,867
65,541
34,326
1,419,258

Bng cn i k ton
2007
2008
1,715,649 1,766,083
758,882
658,962
956,767 1,107,121
1,715,649 1,766,083
105,069
320,428
72,092
288,819
32,978
31,609
1,610,579 1,445,655
Cu trc vn

2009
1,846,014
576,133
1,269,881
1,846,014
197,681
169,162
28,519
1,648,333

2010
1,956,882
839,270
1,117,612
1,956,882
167,279
140,984
26,295
1,789,603

2011
2,077,140
830,186
1,246,954
2,077,140
290,180
264,919
25,261
1,786,960
Trung

GVHD: GV.HUNH TH CM H
bnh
T l n /Tng ti
sn
T l VCP/Tng
ti sn

6.57%

6.12%

18.14%

10.71%

8.55%

93.43%

93.88%

81.86%

89.29%

91.45%

13.97% 10.68%
86.03%

89.32%

D bo trong 5 nm tip theo cng s duy tr cu trc vn xp x mc 15%

Thu thu nhp doanh nghip

Thu thu nhp doanh nghip Vit Nam by gi l 25%.
WACC

= 85% x 17.85% + 15% x (1-25%) x 20%

= 17.42%
Dng tin t do ca SBT (FCFF)
T phn tch v d bo kt qu hot ng kinh doanh ca cng ty, chng ti c lng
dng tin t do ca cng ty Bourbon Ty Ninh t nm 2012 n 2016 nh sau:
FCFF = EBIT(1-Tc) + Khu hao Chi ph vn NWC
Trong :
Vn lu ng = Hng tn kho + cc khon phi thu ngn hn n ngn hn.
Chi ph vn l chi ph tng ti sn
Cc gi nh:

Bng: D bo dng tin FCFF

D phng dng tin FCFF
2012
2013
2014

2015

2016

GVHD: GV.HUNH TH CM H
Li nhun sau thu
Khu hao
Li vay *(1-Tc)
Vn lu ng
Vn lu ng
Tng ln ca TS hu hnh v
v hnh
FCFF

483,151
70,733
41,498
676,976
-26,112

581,146 699,719 843,193 1,016,796

77,807 85,587
94,146
103,561
49,575 59,350
71,177
85,487
819,141 991,160 1,199,304 1,451,157
142,165 172,020 208,144
251,854

4,468
617,026

5,273
6,222
561,090 666,415

7,342
793,030

8,663
945,327

nh gi
Chng ti dng WACC v FCFF c tnh ton cc phn trn nh gi cng
ty Bourbon Ty Ninh
Chng ti gi nh tc tng trng ca cng ty sau nm 2016 (g) l khong
10%, bi v tim nng pht trin ngnh ng cng tng i cao nh c phn tch
trn.
nh gi
Chi ph s dng vn BQ (WACC)
Tc tng trng 2016 -> v cng
(v: triu VND)
Gi tr chit khu cc nm
Gi tr chit khu dng tin nm
2016 tr i
Gi tr doanh nghip thi im cui
nm
S lng c phn ang lu hnh
Gi tr mt c phn

Gi tr ca cng ty SBT cui 11/2011 =

17.42%
6%
2012

2013 2014 2015

2,184,695

2016

3,930,278
6,114,973
131.232
46,597

ngn ng

GVHD: GV.HUNH TH CM H

=6,022,810,337,640
S c phiu ang lu = 131,232,000 CP
Gi tr mt c phn
4.5.

= 46,500 VND / CP

nh gi theo phng php FCFE

T cc phn tch, gi nh v bng s liu trn , chng ti i tnh ton gi c phiu

theo phng php FCFE :
2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Li nhun sau thu

483,151

581,146

699,719

843,193

1,016,79
6

Khu hao

70,733

77,807

85,587

94,146

103,561

Ti sn ngn hn

1,004,52
5

1,215,47
5

1,470,72
5

1,779,57
7

2,153,28
9

Tin mt

6,997

8,467

10,245

12,396

15,000

N ngn hn

320,552

387,868

469,320

567,877

687,132

Vn lu ng

676,976

819,141

991,160

1,199,30
4

1,451,15
7

-26,112 142,165

172,020

208,144

251,854

Vn lu ng
Mua TSC
Thanh l TSC
Tng ln ca TS hu hnh v
v hnh

4,165

4,582

5,040

5,544

6,099

FCFE

575,831

512,205

608,247

723,651

862,404

GVHD: GV.HUNH TH CM H
Khi lng c phiu lu hnh
chi ph s dng vn c phn r
tc tng trng vnh vin (g)
Hin gi FCFE
Hin gi FCFE sau nm 2016
Tng gi tr doanh nghip
Gi 1 c phiu

131.232
17.85%
6%
1,983,546
3,393,520
5,377,067
40,974

Vy theo phng php FCFE , Gi 1 c phiu SBT l : 40,975 vnd

4.6.

nh gi doanh nghip theo phng php P/E :

Trong phng php ny chng ta da theo gi nh rng trong di hn , P/E ca

cng ty s tin n mt t l ca P/E trung bnh ngnh, do trc tin, chng ti tnh
ton P/E trung bnh ngnh da theo cc s liu thu thp c t bo co ti chnh cc
cng ty khc trong ngnh
P/E
BHS

2.50

LSS

2.50

SBT

3.40

SEC

3.40

P/E trung bnh ngnh

2.95

T cc c lng trn cc bo co ti chnh tng lai , ta tnh c gi c phiu

theo phng php P/E
Phng php P/E
EPS
P/E trung bnh ngnh
Gi 1 c phn

2,012
3,670

2,013
4,415

2,014
5,315

2,015
6,405

2,016
7,724

2.95

2.95

2.95

2.95

2.95

10,827

13,024

15,679

18,895

22,786

Gi tr trung bnh 1 c phn tnh theo P/E

Nh vy theo phng php P/E , 1 c phiu SBT c nh gi 16,242Vnd
4.7.

nh gi theo phng php P/BV:

16,242

GVHD: GV.HUNH TH CM H
Vi tng v lp lun nh phng php P/E , chng ti cng i tnh P/BV trung
bnh ngnh ,ri t tnh ra gi c phiu theo phng php P/BV
P/BV
BHS

1.6

LSS

1.4

SBT

1.1

SEC

1.5

P/BV trung bnh ngnh

1.4

Phng php P/BV

2,011 2,012 2,013 2,014 2,015

13,508 15,866 18,702 22,117 26,233

BV
P/BV trung bnh ngnh
Gi 1 c phn

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

18,911 22,212 26,183 30,964 36,726

Gi tr trung bnh 1 c phn tnh theo P/BV

26,999

Nh vy theo phng php P/BV , 1 c phiu SBT c nh gi 26,999 Vnd

Nh phn tch trn , chng ti tnh ra gi tr hp l nht ca c phiu SBT

nh sau:

FCFF
FCFE
P/E
P/BV
Gi bnh
qun

Gi c
Bnh qun gia
phn
T trng quyn
46597
30%
13979
40974
30%
12292
16242
20%
3248
26999
20%
5400
34920

Kt thc phn nh gi chng ti nhn thy mc gi tr thc hp l ca SBT l

khong 34,900VN , hin ti trn th trng gi c phiu SBT ang c nh gi

GVHD: GV.HUNH TH CM H
11800 VN , c th thy l mt con s chnh lch kh ln so vi mc gi tr c
nh gi.
Theo chng ti ngnh ma ng l mt ngnh u t tim nng trong di hn , v
SBT thng qua cc ch s tng trng trong qu kh , cng nhng nh hng pht
trin mnh m hng n tr thnh cng ty ng u ngnh trong tng lai l mt
cng ty y tim nng cho cc nh u t di hn, c bit trong thi im m th
trng chng khon Vit Nam ang ru r , kinh t v m u m , thi im m mi
ngi ang s hi , cng l thi im m cc nh u t thng minh nn tham lam
kim c cho mnh nhng khon u t hi , v theo chng ti SBT l mt trong
nhng c phiu nh u t ng nm gi ti thi im ny.

GVHD: GV.HUNH TH CM H