Effect of The Risk Factors On The Structural Conservation Process Delay

Effect of the risk factors on the Structural Conservation Process Delay
Problems with
Problems Water Major Decisions to New
Structural Failure of Natural New Archaeological Utility
Main Risks Lowering Dismentale or Technological
Encroachments & Structural Failure of Surrounding Unfeasible Structural Risk(NR) Change to Policy of Finds(NAF) &Infrastructure
Projects(PWLP) Reconstruction(MDDR) Solutions(NTS)
Occupation(EO) Monuments(SFM) Buildings(SFSB) Solutios(USS) Intervention(CPI) Lines(PUIL)
Archeologica Archeologic Architictur
Architictur
Legal,Administrator l&Architictur Archeological&Ar al&Architict al& Prermissions of the
Structural Structural Structural Structural Structural Archeological&Archi al& Survey Total Delay
Secondary Risks &Financial al chitictural ural Survey Relevent
Solution(SS) Solution(SS) Solution(SS) Solution(SS) Solution(SS) or PRA tictural Studies(AAS) Documents Time/
Procedures(LAFP) Studies(AAS Studies(AAS) Studies(AA Document Authorities(PRA)
(ASD) Project
) S) s(ASD)
Project Delay Time/ Project Delay Time/ Project Delay Time/ Project Delay Time/ Project Delay Time/ Delay Time/ Project Delay Time/ Project Delay Time/ Delay Time/ Project Delay Time/ Project Time
Project Name Project Time Delay Time/ Project Time
No Time Time Time Time Time Time Project Time Time Time
Magra el Eyon no.1 40/24= 166% (VH) 5/24= 21% (L) 7/24= 29% (L) 9/24= 38% (M) 61/24=254%
El sour El shamaly no.2 5/24= 21% (L) 6/24= 25% (L) 22/24= 92%(VH) 14/24= 58% (H) 6/24= 25% (L) 9/24= 38% (M) 62/24=258%
Kasr Moh. Aly Shopra no.3 4/24= 17% (VL) 6/24= 25% (L) 20/24= 83% (VH 10/24= 42% (M) 40/24=167%
Gohary group no.4 6/24= 25% (L) 1/24= 4% (VL) 6/24= 25% (L) 4/24= 17% (VL) 6/24= 25% (L) 6/24= 25% (L) 29/24=121%
El Moayed Sheekh no.5 8/24= 33% (L) 2/24= 8.3% (VL) 6/24= 25% (L) 4/24=17% (VL) 8/24= 34% (L) 10/24= 42% (M) 2/24= 8.3% (VL)40/24=167%
Beshtak Group no.6 8/24= 33% (L) 6/24= 25% (L) 6/24= 25% (L) 4/24= 17% (VL) 24/24=100%
El Selehdar Group no.7 2/18= 11% (VL) 6/18= 34% (L) 4/18= 22% (L) 13/18= 72% (H) 13/18= 72% (H) 38/18=211%
El Ashraf Bersbay Gr. no.8 7/24= 29% (L) 4/24= 17% (VL) 3/24= 13% (VL) 6/24= 25% (L) 20/24=83%
Kalawoon Group no.9 6/24= 25% (L) 9/24= 38% (M) 3/24= 13% (VL) 4/24= 17% (VL) 22/24=92%
Ebn Tolon Masged no.10 6/24= 25% (L) 3/24= 13% (VL) 3/24= 13% (VL) 12/24=50%
Mamaay el Seefy Grou no.11 23/24= 96% (VH) 4/24= 17% (VL) 9/24= 38% (M) 9/24= 38% (M) 10/24= 42% (M) 55/24=229%
Sadat House no.12 2/24= 8% (VL) 22/24= 92% (VH) 6/24= 25% (L) 30/24=125%
Wekala el Khory no.13 30/18= 167% (VH) 30/18=167%
Abo el Dahab Group no.14 12/24= 50% (M) 4/24= 17% (VL) 9/24= 38% (M) 12/24= 50% (M) 37/24=154%
El Khory Group no.15 24/24= 100% (VH) 6/24= 25% (L) 4/24= 17% (VL) 10/24= 42% (M) 4/24= 17% (VL) 48/24=200%
El Ameer Taaz House no.16 6/30= 20% (L) 6/30=20%
El Eeny Group no.17 9/24= 38% (M) 4/24= 17% (VL) 14/24= 58.3% (H) 2/24= 8.3% (VL 5/24= 21% (L) 44/24=183%
Kasr el Manyal no.18 18/24= 75% (H) 18/24=75%
Bebars Group no.19 5/36= 14% (VL) 5/36=14%
Shabshery Group no.20 9/36= 25% (L) 2/36= 5% (VL) 4/36= 11% (VL) 15/36=42%
Structural Failure of
Main Risks Encroachments & Structural Failure of Surrounding
Occupation(EO) Monuments(SFM) Buildings(SFSB)
Legal,Administrator
Structural
Secondary Risks &Financial Structural Solution(SS)
Solution(SS)
Procedures(LAFP)
Project
Project Name Probapility Impact Probapility Impact Probapility Impact
No
Magra el Eyon no.1 80% (H) 166% (VH)
El sour El shamaly no.2 15% (VL) 21% (L)
Kasr Moh. Aly Shopra no.3 10% (VL) 17% (VL) 15% (VL) 25% (L)
Gohary group no.4 20% (VL) 25% (L) 60% (H) 4% (VL)
El Moayed Sheekh no.5 20% (VL) 33% (L) 5% (VL) 8.3% (VL)
Beshtak Group no.6 20% (VL) 33% (L)
El Selehdar Group no.7 10% (VL) 11% (VL)
El Ashraf Bersbay Gr. no.8 25% (L) 29% (L)
Kalawoon Group no.9 10% (VL) 25% (L)
Ebn Tolon Masged no.10
Mamaay el Seefy Group no.11 40% (M) 96% (VH) 10% (VL) 17% (VL)
Sadat House no.12 60% (H) 8% (VL)
Wekala el Khory no.13 65% (H) 167% (VH)
Abo el Dahab Group no.14 40% (M) 50% (M)
El Khory Group no.15 50% (M) 100% (VH)
El Ameer Taaz House no.16
El Eeny Group no.17 25% (L) 38% (M) 85% (VH) 17% (VL)
Kasr el Manyal no.18 50% (M) 75% (H)
Bebars Group no.19
Shabshery Group no.20 40% (M) 25% (L)

Risk Probability (%) VL (0-23 %) L (18-42 %) M (39-63 %)
Risk Impact (%) VL (0-24 %) L (19-40 %) M (37-63 %)
Structural Conservation Process

VL (0-25 %) L (20-45 %) M (43-80 %)
Delay Evaluation (SCPDE) %
Problems Water
Unfeasible Structural Natural Risk(NR) Lowering Change to Policy of
Solutios(USS) Projects(PWLP) Intervention(CPI)
Structural Structural Archeological&Architic

Structural Solution(SS)
Solution(SS) Solution(SS) or PRA tural Studies(AAS)
Probapility Impact Probapility Impact Probapility Impact Probapility Impact
90% (VH) 21% (L) 70%( H) 29% (L)
30% (L) 25% (L) 90% (VH) 92%(VH) 70% (H) 58% (H)
40% (M) 83% (VH)
80% (VH) 25% (L)
70% (H) 25% (L) 10% (VL) 17% (VL)
80% (VH) 25% (L) 40% (M) 25% (L)
75% (H) 34% (L) 80% (VH) 22% (L)
40% (M) 17% (VL) 10% (VL) 13% (VL)
90% (VH) 38% (M) 25% (L) 13% (VL)
50% (M) 25% (L) 10% (VL) 13% (VL)
70% (H) 38% (M) 40% (M) 38% (M)
90% (VH) 92% (VH) 70% (H) 25% (L)
70% (H) 17% (VL) 40% (M) 38% (M)
40% (M) 25% (L) 90% (VH) 17% (VL) 60% (H) 42% (M)
80% (VH) 58.3% (H)
90% (VH) 5% (VL)

H (60-84 %) VH (79-100 %)
H (58-78 %) VH (76-100 %)
H (75-95 %) VH > 95%

Major Decisions to Problems with Utility
New Technological New Archaeological
Dismentale or &Infrastructure
Solutions(NTS) Finds(NAF)
Reconstruction(MDDR) Lines(PUIL)
Architictural Architictural
Archeological& Archeological Prermissions of the
& Survey Archeological&Architi & Survey
Architictural &Architictural Relevent
Documents( ctural Studies(AAS) Documents(
Studies(AAS) Studies(AAS) Authorities(PRA)
ASD) ASD)
90% (VH) 38% (M)
20% (L) 25% (L) 80% (H) 38% (M)
70% (H) 42% (M)
90% (VH) 17% (VL) 10% (VL) 25% (L) 30% (L) 25% (L)
90% (VH) 34% (L) 85% (VH) 42% (M) 5%(VL) 8.3% (VL)
90% (VH) 17% (VL)
10% (VL) 72% (H) 20% (L) 72% (H)
40% (M) 25% (L)
40% (M) 17% (VL)
10% (VL) 13% (VL)
90% (VH) 42% (M)
90% (VH) 50% (M)
10% (VL) 17% (VL)
50% (M) 20% (L)
10% (VL) 8.3% (VL) 10% (VL) 21% (L)
10% (VL) 14% (VL)
4/36= 11% (VL)

Total Delay Time/
Project Time
61/24=254% VH 77 Magra el Eyon
62/24=258% VH 79 El sour El shamaly
40/24=167% VH 41 Kasr Moh. Aly Shopra
29/24=121% VH 29 Gohary group
40/24=167% VH 40 El Moayed Sheekh
24/24=100% VH 23.5 Beshtak Group
38/18=211% VH 38 El Selehdar Group
20/24=83% H 23 El Ashraf Bersbay Gr.
22/24=92% H 23 Kalawoon Group
12/24=50% M 33 Ebn Tolon Masged
55/24=229% VH 55 Mamaay el Seefy Group
30/24=125% VH 30 Sadat House
30/18=167% VH 32.5 Wekala el Khory
37/24=154% VH 37 Abo el Dahab Group
48/24=200% VH 48 El Khory Group
6/30=20% VL 6 El Ameer Taaz House
44/24=183% VH 34 El Eeny Group
18/24=75% M 18 Kasr el Manyal
5/36=14% VL 5 Bebars Group
15/36=42% L 15 Shabshery Group

Main Risks Encroachments & Natural Risk(NR) Surrounding
Occupation(EO) Buildings(SFSB)
Legal,Administrator
Secondary Risks &Financial Structural Solution(SS) Structural Solution(SS)
Procedures(LAFP)
Project
Project Name Probapility Impact Probapility Impact Probapility
No
Magra el Eyon no.1 80 100 1 1 1
El sour El shamaly no.2 15 21 1 1 1
Kasr Moh. Aly Shopra no.3 10 17 1 1 1
Gohary group no.4 20 25 1 1 60
El Moayed Sheekh no.5 20 33 10 17 5
Beshtak Group no.6 20 33 1 1 1
El Selehdar Group no.7 10 11 1 1 1
El Ashraf Bersbay Gr. no.8 25 29 1 1 1
Kalawoon Group no.9 10 25 1 1 1
Ebn Tolon Masged no.10 1 1 1 1 1
Mamaay el Seefy Group no.11 40 96 1 1 1
Sadat House no.12 1 1 1 1 1
Wekala el Khory no.13 65 100 1 1 1
Abo el Dahab Group no.14 40 50 1 1 1
El Khory Group no.15 50 100 1 1 1
El Ameer Taaz House no.16 1 1 1 1 1
El Eeny Group no.17 25 38 1 1 85
Kasr el Manyal no.18 50 75 1 1 1
Bebars Group no.19 1 1 1 1 1
Shabshery Group no.20 40 25 1 1 1

Risk Probability (%) VL (0-23 %) VH (79-100 %) M
Risk Impact (%) VL (0-24 %) VH (76-100 %) M
Construction Conservation
Process Delay Evaluation VL (0-25 %) VH > 95% M
(CCPDE) %
Construction Conservation
Process Delay Evaluation VL (0-25 %) VH > 95% M
(CCPDE) %
80 90
15 90 30
10 15 40
20 60 80 10
20 10 5 70
20 80
10 75 10
25 10 40
10 90
10 50
40 10 70 90
60 90
65
40 70
50 90 40
50
25 85 0
50
40 90
166 21
21 92 25
17 25 83
25 4 25 25
33 17 8 25
33 25
11 34 72
29 13 17
25 38
13 25
96 17 38 42
8 92
167
50 17
100 17 25
20
38 17 8
75
25 5
Structural Failure of Problems Water
New Technological
Surrounding Structural Failure of Lowering Unfeasible Structural
Solutions(NTS)
Buildings(SFSB) Monuments(SFM) Projects(PWLP) Solutios(USS)
Structural Structural Structural Archeological&Architi

Structural Solution(SS)
Solution(SS) Solution(SS) or PRA Solution(SS) ctural Studies(AAS)
Impact Probapility Impact Probapility Impact Probapility Impact Probapility Impact
1 1 1 90 21 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 90 92 30 25 1 1
1 15 25 1 1 40 83 1 1
4 1 1 1 1 80 25 10 25
8 1 1 1 1 70 25 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 80 25 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 75 34 10 72
1 1 1 10 13 40 17 1 1
1 1 1 90 38 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 10 13 50 25 1 1
1 10 17 1 1 70 38 90 42
1 60 8 90 92 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 70 17 1 1
1 1 1 90 17 40 25 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 50 20
17 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 8
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 90 5 1 1 1 1
(39-63 %) L (18-42 %) H (60-84 %)
(37-63 %) L (19-40 %) H (58-78 %)
(43-80 %) L (20-45 %) H (75-95 %)

(43-80 %) L (20-45 %) H (75-95 %)
70 90
70 20 80
70
90 30
90 85 5
40 90
80 20
40
25 40
10
40
70
40 90
60 10
80 10
10
11
29 38
58 25 38
42
17 25
34 42 8
25 17
22 72
25
13 17
13
38
25
38 50
42 17
58 21
14
11
Major Decisions to Problems with Utility
New Archaeological
Change to Policy of Dismentale or &Infrastructure
Finds(NAF)
Intervention(CPI) Reconstruction(MDDR) Lines(PUIL)
Architictural Architictural
Archeological& Archeological Prermissions of the
Archeological&Architic & Survey & Survey
Architictural &Architictural Relevent
tural Studies(AAS) Documents( Documents(
Studies(AAS) Studies(AAS) Authorities(PRA)
ASD) ASD)
70 29 1 1 1 1 90 38
70 58 1 1 20 25 80 38
1 1 1 1 70 42 1 1
1 1 90 17 30 25 1 1
1 1 90 34 85 42 5 8
40 25 1 1 90 17 1 1
80 22 1 1 20 72 1 1
1 1 1 1 40 25 1 1
25 13 1 1 40 17 1 1
1 1 1 1 10 13 1 1
40 38 1 1 1 1 1 1
70 25 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
40 38 90 50 1 1 1 1
60 42 1 1 10 17 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
80 58 1 1 10 21 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 10 14 1 1
1 1 1 1 11 11 1 1
Total Delay Time/
Project Time
61/24=254% VH 77 Magra el Eyon
62/24=258% VH 79 El sour El shamaly
40/24=167% VH 41 Kasr Moh. Aly Shopra
29/24=121% VH 29 Gohary group
40/24=167% VH 40 El Moayed Sheekh
24/24=100% VH 23.5 Beshtak Group
38/18=211% VH 38 El Selehdar Group
55/24=229% VH 55 Mamaay el Seefy Group
30/24=125% VH 30 Sadat House
37/24=154% VH 37 Abo el Dahab Group
48/24=200% VH 48 El Khory Group
44/24=183% VH 34 El Eeny Group

Legal,Administrator
Structural
Solution(SS)
Procedures(LAFP)
Project Probapilit Probapilit Probapilit

Project Name Impact% Impact%
No y% y% y%
Magra el Eyon no.1 99 99 15 20 85
Mamaay el Seefy Grou no.11 99 99 25 50 70
Sadat House no.12 90 40 25 70 0
El Eeny Group no.17 90 95 25 40 80
Bebars Group no.19 90 80 25 40 70

Risk Probability (%) VL (0-23 %) L (18-42 %) M
Risk Impact (%) VL (0-24 %) L (19-40 %) M
Structural Conservation
Process Delay Evaluation VL (0-22%) L (20-43 %) M
(SCPDE) %
80 90
15 90 30
10 15 40
20 60 80 10
20 10 5 70
20 80
10 75 10
25 10 40
10 90
10 50
40 10 70 90
60 90
65
40 70
50 90 40
50
25 85 0
50
40 90
166 21
21 92 25
17 25 83
25 4 25 25
33 17 8 25
33 25
11 34 72
29 13 17
25 38
13 25
96 17 38 42
8 92
167
50 17
100 17 25
20
38 17 8
75
25 5
The senarios of Historic Building Restoration Projects
Structural Failure of Problems Water Unfeasible New Technological

Surrounding Structural Failure of Lowering Structural Solutions(NTS)
Archeological&Arc
Structural Structural Structural Solution(SS) Structural hitictural
Solution(SS) Solution(SS) or PRA Solution(SS) Studies(AAS) or
LAFP
Probapilit Probapilit Probapilit Probapilit
Impact% Impact% Impact% Impact% Impact%
y% y% y% y%
25 20 30 90 95 70 40 60 65
25 25 30 90 92 70 50 50 40
95 90 95 80 40 85 75 60 65
25 70 80 0 0 80 90 60 70
20 40 60 0 0 70 90 60 35
25 80 60 0 0 80 90 60 40
0 80 80 0 0 75 80 60 70
30 40 45 95 70 70 70 60 70
65 70 70 95 95 70 60 60 70
0 50 70 70 50 70 80 50 60
45 80 75 0 0 70 85 90 85
0 90 65 95 99 80 90 90 40
0 20 20 0 0 80 80 60 40
20 50 40 0 0 70 85 50 30
40 80 90 90 90 80 85 60 65
45 90 60 0 0 80 70 80 40
45 90 70 0 0 80 87 80 40
0 20 25 0 0 60 60 50 40
40 70 80 0 0 75 70 50 40
50 75 80 90 80 75 80 50 40
(39-63 %) H (60-84 %) VH (79-100 %)
(37-63 %) H (58-78 %) VH (76-100 %)
(38-59 %) H (57-81 %) VH (78-100)%
70 90
70 20 80
70
90 30
90 85 5
40 90
80 20
40
25 40
10
40
70
40 90
60 10
80 10
10
11
29 38
58 25 38
42
17 25
34 42 8
25 17
22 72
25
13 17
13
38
25
38 50
42 17
58 21
14
11
Problems with
Major Decisions to
New Archaeological Utility
Change to Policy of Dismentale or
Finds(NAF) &Infrastructure
Intervention(CPI) Reconstruction(MDDR)
Lines(PUIL)
Archeologica Archeologica Architictur
Architictur
Archeological&Arch l&Architictur l&Architictur al& Prermissions of the
al& Survey
itictural al al Survey Relevent
Documents
Studies(AAS) Studies(AAS Studies(AAS Document Authorities(PRA)
(ASD)
) ) s(ASD)
Probapilit Probapilit
Impact% Probapility% Impact% Probapility% Impact% Impact%
y% y%
70 90 80 85 70 45 70 87
70 90 80 95 70 30 70 83
70 90 90 87 70 90 0 0
80 90 90 50 70 65 0 0
95 99 95 95 85 90 0 0
85 90 80 65 90 90 0 0
80 85 0 0 90 90 0 0
80 80 0 0 60 65 0 0
80 80 90 75 60 70 0 0
70 70 0 0 60 60 20 20
70 80 70 40 70 75 0 0
80 70 0 0 90 60 70 55
70 65 0 0 50 30 0 0
80 75 90 95 70 65 0 0
80 85 90 45 80 95 70 65
95 80 0 0 90 75 0 0
80 99 80 83 80 85 0 0
70 65 0 0 50 30 0 0
70 75 50 40 80 65 0 0
70 80 85 82 70 70 0 0
Total Delay Time of
SCP/ Project Time
61/24=254%VH 77 Magra el Eyon
62/24=258%VH 79 El sour El shamaly
40/24=167%VH 41 Kasr Moh. Aly Shopra
29/24=121%VH 29 Gohary group
40/24=167%VH 40 El Moayed Sheekh
24/24=100%VH 23.5 Beshtak Group
38/18=211%VH 38 El Selehdar Group
55/24=229%VH 55 Mamaay el Seefy Group
30/24=125%VH 30 Sadat House
37/24=154%VH 37 Abo el Dahab Group
48/24=200%VH 48 El Khory Group
44/24=183%VH 34 El Eeny Group

Magra el Eyon
El sour El shamaly
Kasr Moh. Aly Shopra
Gohary group
El Moayed Sheekh
Beshtak Group
El Selehdar Group
El Ashraf Bersbay Gr.
Kalawoon Group
Ebn Tolon Masged
Mamaay el Seefy Group
Sadat House
Wekala el Khory
Abo el Dahab Group
El Khory Group
El Ameer Taaz House
El Eeny Group
Kasr el Manyal
Bebars Group
Shabshery Group
Delay Impact Evalution
73.1 73.1 62.5 62.536 82.4 61.963 VH
63.6 63.6 62.3 62.264 76.6 59.929 H
63.8 63.8 72.1 72.112 90.6 70.876 VH
61.7 61.7 61.7 61.739 62.9 50.02 H
63.8 63.8 69.2 69.159 90.6 68.744 VH
61.4 61.4 61.4 61.397 51.3 49.882 M
64.4 64.4 67.7 67.714 90.6 67.725
63.8 63.8 60.3 60.327 72.2 60.514
63.8 63.8 70.1 70.126 90.6 69.586
61.6 61.6 66.5 66.508 76.6 58.866
64.1 64.1 73.8 73.764 90.6 71.776
63.8 63.8 68.5 68.526 90.6 68.744
63.9 63.9 68.5 68.511 90.6 68.744
69.0 69.0 68.3 68.255 91.6 61.062
63.9 63.9 70.3 70.343 90.6 69.586
63.7 63.7 62.4 62.408 76.6 59.929
61.4 61.4 70.6 70.604 72.3 58.843
63.6 63.6 58.0 57.956 72.2 60.848
64.1 64.1 69.8 69.784 90.6 69.586
64.1 64.1 68.8 68.762 90.6 68.744
Impact =
Evalution =
Legal,Administrator
Structural
Solution(SS)
Procedures(LAFP)
No y% y% y%
Magra el Eyon no.1 95 99 50 70 95
Sadat House no.12 90 80 50 70 70
El Eeny Group no.17 90 95 50 60 80

Bebars Group no.19 90 80 50 60 70

Risk Impact (%) VL (0-24 %) L (19-40 %) M
(SCPDE) %
80 90
15 90 30
10 15 40
20 60 80 10
20 10 5 70
20 80
10 75 10
25 10 40
10 90
10 50
40 10 70 90
60 90
65
40 70
50 90 40
50
25 85 0
50
40 90
166 21
21 92 25
17 25 83
25 4 25 25
33 17 8 25
33 25
11 34 72
29 13 17
25 38
13 25
96 17 38 42
8 92
167
50 17
100 17 25
20
38 17 8
75
25 5
Structural Failure of Problems Water Unfeasible New Technological

Surrounding Structural Failure of Lowering Structural Solutions(NTS)
Archeological&Arc
LAFP
y% y% y% y%
95 80 95 90 90 70 85 60 70
80 80 95 90 92 70 85 60 70
95 90 95 80 80 95 95 60 70
80 70 80 50 75 80 90 60 70
80 80 80 50 75 70 80 60 70
80 80 80 50 75 80 90 60 70
80 80 80 50 75 75 80 60 70
80 70 80 95 80 70 60 60 70
80 70 90 95 95 70 60 60 70
60 60 70 80 80 70 80 50 60
85 80 90 50 70 70 85 90 85
70 90 90 95 99 80 90 90 90
80 75 80 50 70 80 80 60 70
85 80 90 60 70 70 85 50 70
85 80 90 90 90 80 85 60 70
85 90 80 50 60 80 85 80 70
85 90 95 50 70 80 87 80 70
60 60 70 50 60 60 60 50 60
65 70 80 40 60 75 70 50 60
80 75 80 90 80 75 80 50 70
(39-63 %) H (60-84 %) VH (79-100 %)
(37-63 %) H (58-78 %) VH (76-100 %)
(38-59 %) H (57-81 %) VH (78-100)%

70 90
70 20 80
70
90 30
90 85 5
40 90
80 20
40
25 40
10
40
70
40 90
60 10
80 10
10
11
29 38
58 25 38
42
17 25
34 42 8
25 17
22 72
25
13 17
13
38
25
38 50
42 17
58 21
14
11
Problems with
Major Decisions to
Change to Policy of Dismentale or
Intervention(CPI) Reconstruction(MDDR)
Archeologica Archeologica Architictur Lines(PUIL)
Architictur
al& Survey
Documents
(ASD)
) ) s(ASD)
y% y%
70 85 80 85 70 75 90 90
70 90 95 95 70 75 80 90
70 90 90 95 70 80 80 80
80 90 90 90 70 80 80 80
95 99 95 95 85 90 70 80
85 90 90 90 90 90 70 80
80 85 90 90 90 90 70 80
80 80 50 60 60 65 50 70
80 80 90 80 60 70 50 70
70 70 50 50 60 60 50 50
70 80 70 80 70 75 60 75
80 85 80 95 90 95 70 85
70 85 50 65 70 70 60 70
80 85 90 95 70 85 50 60
80 85 90 95 80 95 70 70
95 80 90 75 90 75 70 60
80 99 80 83 80 85 70 65
70 65 50 60 50 55 60 50
70 75 60 60 80 85 60 60
70 80 85 82 70 75 60 60
Total Delay Time/
Project Time
61/24=254%VH 77 Magra el Eyon
62/24=258%VH 79 El sour El shamaly
40/24=167%VH 41 Kasr Moh. Aly Shopra
29/24=121%VH 29 Gohary group
40/24=167%VH 40 El Moayed Sheekh
24/24=100%VH 23.5 Beshtak Group
38/18=211%VH 38 El Selehdar Group
55/24=229%VH 55 Mamaay el Seefy Group
30/24=125%VH 30 Sadat House
37/24=154%VH 37 Abo el Dahab Group
48/24=200%VH 48 El Khory Group
44/24=183%VH 34 El Eeny Group


Magra el Eyon
El sour El shamaly
Gohary group
El Moayed Sheekh
Beshtak Group
El Selehdar Group
Kalawoon Group
Ebn Tolon Masged
Sadat House
Wekala el Khory
Abo el Dahab Group
El Khory Group
El Ameer Taaz House
El Eeny Group
Kasr el Manyal
Bebars Group
Shabshery Group
Compare bet.the results of programes & the actua
Program Results
Project
Project Name RiskProbapility Risk Impact
No Values
% %
Magra el Eyon (finished) no.1 73.510 H 83.450
El sour El shamaly (finished) no.2 73.510 H 83.230
Kasr Moh. Aly Shopra (finished) no.3 73.510 H 83.877
Gohary group (finished) no.4 71.668 H 83.446
El Moayed Sheekh (finished) no.5 73.510 H 84.094
Beshtak Group (finished) no.6 71.524 H 82.335
El Selehdar Group (finished) no.7 73.764 H 81.720
El Ashraf Bersbay Gr. (finished) no.8 73.510 H 66.508
Kalawoon Group (finished) no.9 73.510 H 75.855
Ebn Tolon Masged (finished) no.10 44.133 M 51.213
Mamaay el Seefy Group (finished) no.11 71.668 H 81.720
Sadat House (finished) no.12 73.510 H 84.094
Wekala el Khory (finished) no.13 73.764 H 84.094
Abo el Dahab Group (finished) no.14 71.668 H 83.877
El Khory Group (finished) no.15 73.767 H 84.094
El Ameer Taaz House (finished) no.16 70.932 H 55.333
El Eeny Group (finished) no.17 71.524 H 84.094
Kasr el Manyal (Continuous) no.18 73.510 H 71.232
Bebars Group (Continuous) no.19 69.008 H 56.573
Shabshery Group (Continuous) no.20 73.764 H 73.768

Risk Probability (%) VL (0-23 %) L
Risk Impact (%) VL (0-24 %) L
Structural Conservation Process Delay

VL (0-22%) L
Evaluation (SCPDE) %
80
15
10
20
20 10
20
10
25
10
40
65
40
50
25
50
40
166
21
17
25
33 17
33
11
29
25
96
167
50
100
38
75
25
of programes & the actual results
Program Results Actual Results
Total Delay
Time of SCP/
Values Process Delay Values Values
Project Time
Evaluation(SCPD)%
%
VH 90.220 VH 61/24=254% VH
VH 90.220 VH 62/24=258% VH
VH 90.450 VH 40/24=167% VH
VH 89.984 VH 29/24=121% VH
VH 90.450 VH 40/24=167% VH
VH 89.984 VH 24/24=100% VH
VH 89.984 VH 38/18=211% VH
H 68.742 H 20/24=83% H
H 68.795 H 22/24=92% H
M 48.593 M 12/24=50% M
VH 89.984 VH 55/24=229% VH
VH 90.450 VH 30/24=125% VH
VH 90.450 VH 30/18=167% VH
H 90.450 VH 37/24=154% VH
VH 90.450 VH 48/24=200% VH
M 48.619 M 6/30=20% L
VH 90.450 VH 44/24=183% VH
H 68.742 H 18/24=75% H
M 48.583 M 5/36=14% VL
H 68.742 H 15/36=42% M
(18-42 %) M (39-63 %) H (60-84 %) VH
(19-40 %) M (37-63 %) H (58-78 %) VH
(20-43 %) M (38-59 %) H (57-81 %) VH

(79-100 %)
(76-100 %)
(78-100)%
Delay = Impact =
73.5097 83.4446
73.5097 83.2307
73.5097 83.8767
71.6684 82.3346
73.5097 84.0943
71.5238 82.3346
73.764 81.7199
73.5097 66.5076
73.5097 75.8551
44.1332 51.2126
71.6684 81.7199
73.5097 84.0943
73.764 84.0943
71.6684 83.8767
73.7676 84.0943
70.9322 55.3327
71.5238 84.0943
73.5097 71.2322
69.0079 56.5731
73.764 73.7676
Evaluation =
90.2195
90.2195
90.45
89.9841
90.45
89.9841
89.9841
68.742
68.7947
48.5926
89.9841
90.45
90.45
90.45
90.45
48.6185
90.45
68.742
48.5833
68.742
Main Risks Natural Risk(NR) Structural Failure of
Encroachments & Surrounding
Legal,Administrator
Structural
Solution(SS)
Procedures(LAFP)
No y% y% y%
Magra el Eyon no.1 95 99 50 70 95
Sadat House no.12 90 80 50 70 0
El Eeny Group no.17 90 95 50 80 90

Bebars Group no.19 90 60 20 20 70

Risk Impact (%) VL (0-24 %) L (19-40 %) M
(SCPDE) %
80 90
15 90 30
10 15 40
20 60 80 10
20 10 5 70
20 80
10 75 10
25 10 40
10 90
10 50
40 10 70 90
60 90
65
40 70
50 90 40
50
25 85 0
50
40 90
166 21
21 92 25
17 25 83
25 4 25 25
33 17 8 25
33 25
11 34 72
29 13 17
25 38
13 25
96 17 38 42
8 92
167
50 17
100 17 25
20
38 17 8
75
25 5
Problems Water
New Technological
Structural Failure of Lowering Unfeasible Solutions(NTS)
Surrounding Structural Failure of Projects(PWLP) Structural
Buildings(SFSB) Monuments(SFM) Solutios(USS)
Archeological&Arc
LAFP
y% y% y% y%
95 80 95 90 90 70 85 60 70
80 80 95 90 92 70 85 60 70
95 90 95 80 80 95 95 60 70
80 70 80 0 0 80 90 60 70
80 80 80 0 0 70 80 60 70
80 80 80 0 0 80 90 60 70
0 80 80 0 0 75 80 60 70
0 70 40 95 70 70 60 60 60
80 70 90 95 95 70 60 60 70
0 30 40 20 50 50 60 50 50
85 80 90 0 0 70 85 90 85
0 90 90 95 99 80 90 90 90
0 75 80 0 0 80 80 60 70
85 80 90 0 0 70 85 50 70
85 80 90 90 90 80 85 60 70
30 90 80 0 0 80 85 80 50
85 90 95 0 0 85 90 80 70
0 60 70 0 0 60 60 50 60
40 20 20 0 0 50 50 0 0
80 75 80 90 80 75 80 50 70
(39-63 %) H (60-84 %) VH (79-100 %)
(37-63 %) H (58-78 %) VH (76-100 %)
(38-59 %) H (57-81 %) VH (78-100)%

70 90
70 20 80
70
90 30
90 85 5
40 90
80 20
40
25 40
10
40
70
40 90
60 10
80 10
10
11
29 38
58 25 38
42
17 25
34 42 8
25 17
22 72
25
13 17
13
38
25
38 50
42 17
58 21
14
11
Problems with
Major Decisions to
Dismentale or
Change to Policy of Reconstruction(MDDR)
Lines(PUIL)
Intervention(CPI)
Archeologica Archeologica Architictur
Architictur
al& Survey
Documents
(ASD)
) ) s(ASD)
y% y%
70 85 80 85 70 75 90 90
70 90 95 95 70 75 80 90
70 90 90 95 70 80 0 0
80 90 90 90 70 80 0 0
95 99 95 95 85 90 0 0
85 90 90 90 90 90 0 0
80 85 0 0 90 90 0 0
80 80 0 0 60 65 0 0
80 80 90 80 60 70 0 0
70 70 0 0 60 60 0 0
70 80 70 80 70 75 0 0
80 85 0 0 90 95 70 85
70 85 0 0 70 70 0 0
80 85 90 95 70 85 0 0
80 85 90 95 80 95 70 70
95 80 0 0 90 75 0 0
85 99 85 90 90 85 0 0
70 65 0 0 50 55 0 0
50 50 0 0 70 60 0 0
70 80 70 70 50 50 0 0
Total Delay Time/
Project Time
61/24=254%VH 90.220 VH 77 Magra el Eyon
62/24=258%VH 90.220 VH 79 El sour El shamaly
40/24=167%VH 90.450 VH 41 Kasr Moh. Aly Shopra
29/24=121%VH 89.984 VH 29 Gohary group
40/24=167%VH 90.450 VH 40 El Moayed Sheekh
24/24=100%VH 89.984 VH 23.5 Beshtak Group
38/18=211%VH 89.984 VH 38 El Selehdar Group
20/24=83% H 68.742 H 23 El Ashraf Bersbay Gr.
22/24=92% H 68.795 H 23 Kalawoon Group
12/24=50% M 48.593 M 33 Ebn Tolon Masged
55/24=229%VH 89.984 VH 55 Mamaay el Seefy Group
30/24=125%VH 90.450 VH 30 Sadat House
30/18=167% VH 90.450 VH 32.5 Wekala el Khory
37/24=154%VH 90.450 VH 37 Abo el Dahab Group
48/24=200%VH 90.450 VH 48 El Khory Group

6/30=20% VL 48.619 M 6 El Ameer Taaz House
44/24=183%VH 90.450 VH 34 El Eeny Group

18/24=75% H 68.742 H 18 Kasr el Manyal
5/36=14% VL 48.583 M 5 Bebars Group
15/36=42% L 68.742 H 15 Shabshery Group

Magra el Eyon
El sour El shamaly
Gohary group
El Moayed Sheekh
Beshtak Group
El Selehdar Group
Kalawoon Group
Ebn Tolon Masged
Sadat House
Wekala el Khory
Abo el Dahab Group
El Khory Group
El Ameer Taaz House
El Eeny Group
Kasr el Manyal
Bebars Group
Shabshery Group
Delay = Impact = Evaluation =
73.5097 83.4446
73.5097 83.2307
73.5097 83.8767
71.6684 82.3346
73.5097 84.0943
71.5238 82.3346
73.764 81.7199
73.5097 66.5076
73.5097 75.8551
44.1332 51.2126
71.6684 81.7199
73.5097 84.0943
73.764 84.0943
71.6684 83.8767
73.7676 84.0943
70.9322 55.3327
71.5238 84.0943
73.5097 71.2322
69.0079 56.5731
73.764 73.7676
Modefy third table

90.2195 VL
90.2195 VL
90.45 VL
89.9841 VL
90.45 VL
89.9841 VL
89.9841 VL
68.742 VL
68.7947 VL
48.5926 VL
89.9841 VL
90.45 VL
90.45 VL
90.45 VL
90.45 VL
48.6185 VL
90.45 VL
68.742 VL
48.5833 VL
68.742 VL

Effect of The Risk Factors On The Structural Conservation Process Delay

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Effect of The Risk Factors On The Structural Conservation Process Delay

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Effect of the risk factors on the Structural Conservation Process Delay

Wekala el Khory no.13 30/18= 167% (VH) 30/18=167%

El Ameer Taaz House no.16 6/30= 20% (L) 6/30=20%

Kasr el Manyal no.18 18/24= 75% (H) 18/24=75%

Bebars Group no.19 5/36= 14% (VL) 5/36=14%

Magra el Eyon no.1 80% (H) 166% (VH)

El sour El shamaly no.2 15% (VL) 21% (L)

Beshtak Group no.6 20% (VL) 33% (L)

El Selehdar Group no.7 10% (VL) 11% (VL)

El Ashraf Bersbay Gr. no.8 25% (L) 29% (L)

Kalawoon Group no.9 10% (VL) 25% (L)

Ebn Tolon Masged no.10

Sadat House no.12 60% (H) 8% (VL)

Wekala el Khory no.13 65% (H) 167% (VH)

Abo el Dahab Group no.14 40% (M) 50% (M)

El Khory Group no.15 50% (M) 100% (VH)

El Ameer Taaz House no.16

Kasr el Manyal no.18 50% (M) 75% (H)

Bebars Group no.19

Shabshery Group no.20 40% (M) 25% (L)

Structural Conservation Process

Structural Structural Archeological&Architic

Probapility Impact Probapility Impact Probapility Impact Probapility Impact

90% (VH) 21% (L) 70%( H) 29% (L)

40% (M) 83% (VH)

80% (VH) 25% (L)

70% (H) 25% (L) 10% (VL) 17% (VL)

80% (VH) 25% (L) 40% (M) 25% (L)

75% (H) 34% (L) 80% (VH) 22% (L)

40% (M) 17% (VL) 10% (VL) 13% (VL)

90% (VH) 38% (M) 25% (L) 13% (VL)

50% (M) 25% (L) 10% (VL) 13% (VL)

70% (H) 38% (M) 40% (M) 38% (M)

90% (VH) 92% (VH) 70% (H) 25% (L)

70% (H) 17% (VL) 40% (M) 38% (M)

80% (VH) 58.3% (H)

90% (VH) 5% (VL)

H (75-95 %) VH > 95%

Probapility Impact Probapility Impact Probapility Impact Probapility Impact

90% (VH) 38% (M)

20% (L) 25% (L) 80% (H) 38% (M)

70% (H) 42% (M)

90% (VH) 17% (VL)

10% (VL) 72% (H) 20% (L) 72% (H)

40% (M) 25% (L)

40% (M) 17% (VL)

10% (VL) 13% (VL)

90% (VH) 42% (M)

90% (VH) 50% (M)

10% (VL) 17% (VL)

50% (M) 20% (L)

10% (VL) 8.3% (VL) 10% (VL) 21% (L)

10% (VL) 14% (VL)

4/36= 11% (VL)

61/24=254% VH 77 Magra el Eyon

62/24=258% VH 79 El sour El shamaly

40/24=167% VH 41 Kasr Moh. Aly Shopra

29/24=121% VH 29 Gohary group

40/24=167% VH 40 El Moayed Sheekh

24/24=100% VH 23.5 Beshtak Group

38/18=211% VH 38 El Selehdar Group

20/24=83% H 23 El Ashraf Bersbay Gr.

22/24=92% H 23 Kalawoon Group