Bi 10

Quyt nh d ton vn
(Capital Budgeting)
Mc tiu hc tp
Gii thch tm quan trng ca quyt nh d
ton vn v s cn thit phi kim sot cc
quyt nh d ton vn.
Gii thch c khi nim Gi tr theo thi gian
ca tin
Hiu v c kh nng p dng cc phng php
nh gi cc quyt nh d ton vn.
Nm c phng php la chn li sut chit
khu trong nh gi cc quyt nh d ton vn.

u t vo cc ti sn di hn.
Cam kt di hn cc ngun lc kinh t ln, vi
mc ch to ra li nhun trong tng lai.

Khi nim Quyt nh D Ton Vn
Gim thiu chi ph
M rng nh my
La chn thit b
Thu hay mua
Thay th thit b
Khi Nim Quyt nh D Ton Vn
m bo s thnh cng ca u t vn.
Ngn chn cc u t km hiu qu.
Kim sot ri ro.
V sao phi kim sot
quyt nh d ton vn?
Gi tr theo thi gian ca tin
(Time value of money)

ng tin nhng thi im khc nhau c
gi tr kinh t khc nhau (v sao?)
1 ng hm nay 1 ng vo nm sau
1 ng hm ny = 1,2 ng vo nm
sau (vi mc li sut 20%/nm)
Trong phn tch ti chnh d n, ng tin
phi c xem xt theo hai kha Gi tr v
Thi im thu/chi
Li n (simple interest)
Li tc ch tnh theo s vn gc

Li ghp (compound interest)
Li tc mi thi on c tnh theo s vn gc
v tng s tin li tch ly ca cc thi on trc.
Li n & Li ghp
Li n & Li ghp
i = (1+ r)
N
- 1
Li sut ghp
Li sut n
Tnh cho mt thi on
S thi on
ghp li
Li n & Li ghp
ng A vay ngn hng 100 triu ng vi li sut n 10%/nm
trong thi hn 5 nm. Hi ng y phi tr cho ngn hng bao
nhiu tin li trong thi on 5 nm?

Nm
Li n Li ghp
Vn gc Li Vn gc Li
0 100.00 0.00 100.00 0.00
1 100.00 10.00 100.00 10.00
2 100.00 10.00 110.00 11.00
3 100.00 10.00 121.00 12.10
4 100.00 10.00 133.10 13.31
5 100.00 10.00 146.41 14.64
Cng 50.00 61.05
Li sut danh ngha (nominal rate)
Li sut c cng b, nim yt


Li sut hiu dng (effective rate)
Li sut c c sau khi iu chnh li sut danh
ngha theo s ln ghp li

Li sut danh ngha & Li sut hiu dng


trong : i l li sut thc trong mt thi on tnh ton
r l li sut danh ngha trong thi on pht biu
m l s thi on ghp li trong thi on pht biu
N l s thi on ghp li trong thi on tnh ton

Li sut danh ngha & Li sut hiu dng
( )
1
1
-
+ =
N
m
r
i
V d 1: Li sut 12%/nm, ghp li theo qu. Hi li
sut thc ca nm l bao nhiu?
r = 12%
m = 4 (4 qu trong 1 nm)
N = 4

Vy: i = (1+12%/4)
4
-1 = 12.55%

V d 2: Li sut 12%/nm, ghp li theo qu. Hi li
sut thc ca thi on 3 nm l bao nhiu?
Li sut danh ngha & Li sut hiu dng
FV = PV(1 + r)
n
Nu PV ng
c u t
hm nay
Ti mc
li sut r
Trong n
thi k
Chng ta s nhn
c FV ng.
Ga tr tng lai
ca mt khon tin
K hiu: (1 + i)
n
= (F/P, i%, n),
v gi l "H s gi tr tch ly n"
(Single Payment Compound Amount Factor: SPCAF).
Gi tit kim 1.000.000.000 ng hm nay,
vi li sut 12%/nm, ghp li theo thng
trong thi hn 1 nm.
S tin (c vn gc v li) s nhn c l:

1.000.000.000(1+12%/12)
12
= 1.126.825.030

Ga tr tng lai
ca mt khon tin
Gi tr hin ti
ca mt khon tin
PV = FV
1
(1 + r)
n

K hiu: 1/(1+i)
n
= (P/F,i%,n), v gi l "H s gi tr hin ti n"
(Single Payment Present Worth Factor: SPPWF)
Mun c mt khon tin 2.000.000.000 ng
sau 2 nm, hm nay phi gi tit kim ngn
hng bao nhiu tin. Bit rng, li sut tin
gi tit kim l 12%/nm, ghp li theo
thng.

S tin gi tit kim hm ny l:
2.000.000.000/(1+12%/12)
24
= 1.575.132.255

Ga tr hin ti
ca mt khon tin
Cc Phng Php nh Gi
Quyt nh D Ton Vn
1. Gi tr hin ti
2. Sc sinh li ni b
3. Thi gian hon vn
4. Sc sinh li k ton

Phng php
chit khu ngn lu
Phng php
Khng chit khu ngn lu
75
86
71
75
20
69
68
53
46
60
28
64
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Payback IRR ARR NPV
Korea
Japan
U.S.
% cc nh qun l cho rng cc
phng php ny l quan trng
Cc Phng Php nh Gi
Quyt nh D Ton Vn
Phng php gi tr hin ti
(Present Value Method)
Khi nim
Gi tr hin ti (hin gi rng - NPV) ca d n chnh l
tng ngn lu rng ca d n c chit khu v
gc hin ti.
NPV l tiu chun c bn dng nh gi hiu qu
ca mt d n u t v n th hin gi tr tng thm m
d n em li.
Tnh ton NPV
NPV hin gi rng ca d n
NCF
t
ngn lu rng nm t
i li sut chit khu
N thi k phn tch/tui th kinh t

=
+
=
N
0 t
t
t
) i 1 (
NCF
NPV
Tiu chun ra quyt nh
Cc d n c lp Cc d n loi tr nhau

NPV 0 Chp nhn d n
NPV < 0 Bc b d n

D n c NPV cao nht l d
n c chn
V d 1
Gi s cng H c ba c hi u t A, B, v C. Ngn
lu rng ca cc d n u t ny trong 4 nm hot
ng d kin nh sau:
Nm (t) Ngn lu rng c tnh (VT: $1.000)
D n A D n B D n C
0 (10.000) (10.000) (10.000)
1 5.000 1.000 1.000
2 4.000 3.000 2.500
3 3.000 4.000 4.000
4 1.000 6.000 5.000
V d 1 (tip)
Vi li sut chit khu i=10%, NPV ca cc d n c
tnh nh sau:

NPV
(A)
= -10.000 + 5.000/(1+0.1) + 4.000/(1+0.1)
2

+ 3.000/(1+0.1)
3
+ 1.000/(1+0.1)
4

= $788.20
NPV
(B)
= -10.000 + 1.000/(1+0.1) + 3.000/(1+0.1)
2

+ 4.000/(1+0.1)
3
+ 6.000/(1+0.1)
4

= $491.77
NPV
(C)
= -10.000 + 1.000/(1+0.1) + 2.500/(1+0.1)
2
+ 4.000/(1+0.1)
3
+ 5.000/(1+0.1)
4

= - $604.47
V d 1 (tip)
Nu A, B, v C l cc d n c lp th d n A v B s
c chp nhn (v NPV ca chng ln hn 0), cn d
n C b t chi (v NPV ca n b hn khng)
Nu A, B, v C l cc d n loi tr nhau th d n A s
c chn v NPV ca d n ny c gi tr cap nht.
V d 2
(so snh d n c tui th kinh t khc nhau)
Mt cng ty ang xem xt hai phng n u t vo mt loi thit b
sn xut A v B. Cc thng tin v vn u t ban u, ngn lu vo
v ra ca hai phng n c trnh by nh sau:
Thit b A Thit b B
u t ban u (triu ng)
Ngn lu hng nm:
Ngn lu vo
Ngn lu ra
Gi tr cn li
Tui th (nm)
10.000

5.000
2.200
2.000
5
15.000

7.000
4.300
0
10
Vi li sut chit khu l 8%, d n no c chn theo tiu chun NPV?
V d 2 (tip)
Chn thi k phn tch l 10 nm (so snh 2 d n A ni tip nhau
v d n B)
Ngn lu rng ca 2 d n trong thi k 10 nm nh sau:
Nm Khon mc NCF
A
NCF
B

0
1 - 10
5
10
u t ban u
Ngn lu rng hng nm
Chi ph thay mi
Gi tr cn li
-10.000
2.800
-10.000 + 2.000
2.000
-15.000
2.700
0
0
V d 2 (tip)
NPV
(A)
= -10.000 + 2.800(P/A, 8%, 10)
-8.000(P/F, 8%, 5) + 2.000(P/F, 8%, 10)
= 4.269 (triu ng)

NPV
(B)
= -15.000 + 2.700(P/A, 8%, 10)
= 3.117 (triu ng)

NPV
(A)
> NPV
(B)
Thit b A c chn
u v nhc im ca NPV
u im
C xem xt gi tr tho thi gian ca tin
Xem xt ton b ngn lu ca d n
Tnh ton n gin v c tnh cht cng
So snh cc d n thun li, t sai lm
Nhc im
Ph thuc vo li sut chit khu
Phng php sc sinh li ni b
(Internal Rate of return Method)
Khi nim
IRR ca mt d n l sut chit khu lm cho hin gi
rng (NPV) ca mt d n bng khng.
NPV
0
i%
IRR
Tnh ton IRR

=
+
=
N
0 t
t
t
) i 1 (
NCF
NPV
= 0
NCF
t
ngn lu rng nm t
N thi k phn tch/tui th kinh t
IRR l nghim i* ca phng trnh:
Tnh ton IRR
2 1
1
1 2 1
NPV NPV
NPV
) i i ( i IRR
+
+ =
S dng hm IRR ca phn mm Excel tnh ton
IRR s d dng hn v kt qu tnh ton cng chnh
xc hn
2 1
1
1 2 1
NPV NPV
NPV
) i i ( i IRR
+
- + =
NPV
i
NPV
1

NPV
2

0
i
1

i
2

Tiu chun ra quyt nh
Thm nh cc d n c lp

IRR MARR Chp nhn
IRR < MARR Bc b
MARR l sc sinh li ti thiu chp nhn c
Tiu chun ra quyt nh
Thm nh cc d n loi tr nhau
Bt k d n no c IRR < MARR th loi b ngay.
So snh phng n c u t ban u ln hn vi
phng n c vn u t nh hn ch khi phng n c
u t nh hn l ng gi.
Chn phng n c u t ban u ln hn nu gia s
vn u t l ng gi, ngha l IRR() MARR. Ngc li,
nu IRR() < MARR th phng n c vn u t nh s
c chn.
V d 3
(Thm nh d n c lp theo IRR)
Ly s liu ca v d 1, tnh IRR ca cc d n v da
vo kt qu tnh ton ra quyt nh. (MARR l 10%)
Gii:
Dng hm ti chnh IRR() trn phn mm Excel tnh
ton, chng ta c kt qu sau:
IRR
(A)
= 14.5%, IRR
(B)
= 11.8%, v IRR
(C)
= 7.7%.
D n A v B c chp nhn, cn d n C b t
chi.

V d 4
(Thm nh d n loi tr nhau theo IRR)
Gi s cc d n A, B, C trong v d 1 l cc d n loi
tr nhau. Hy nh gi xem d n no l tt nht trong
ba d n ny theo tiu chun IRR.
Gii:
D n C b loi b ngay v IRR
(C)
= 7.7% < MARR (10%)
Chng ta ch so snh d n A v B. Do A v B c cng
mc vn u t nn khng cn tin hnh so snh bng
th tc phn tch gia s u t. D n A c IRR l
14.5%, cao hn IRR ca d n B (11.8%). V vy, d n
A c nh gi cao hn.

V d 5
(Thm nh d n loi tr nhau theo IRR)
S dng s liu ca v d 2. So snh d n u t vo
thit b A v thit b B theo tiu chun IRR.
Gii:
Bc 1: Tnh IRR ca d n u t vo thit b A
IRR
(A)
= 16.5% > MARR (10%)
D n A l ng gi
Bc 2: So snh A vi B



V d 5 (tip)
(Thm nh d n loi tr nhau theo IRR)
Bc 2: So snh A vi B (tip)
Lp bng ngn lu gia s u t (B A)



Nm NCF
A
NCF
B
NCF
B-A

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
-10.000
2.800
2.800
2.800
2.800
2.800 -8.000
2.800
2.800
2.800
2.800
2.800 +2.000
-15.000
2.700
2.700
2.700
2.700
2.700
2.700
2.700
2.700
2.700
2.700
-5.000
-100
-100
-100
-100
-100 + 8.000
-100
-100
-100
-100
-100 2.000
V d 5 (tip)
(Thm nh d n loi tr nhau theo IRR)
Bc 2: So snh A vi B (tip)
Tnh IRR ca gia s u t (B-A)
IRR
(B-A)
l nghim ca phng trnh:
-5.000 -100 (P/A, i%, 10) + 8.000(P/F, i%, 5) 2.000(P/F, i%, 10) = 0
Nghim ca phng trnh trn l: i*=0%. y chnh l
IRR
(B-A)
.
Bc 3: Ra quyt nh
IRR
(B-A)
= 0% < MARR (10%) Gia s u t (B-A)
khng ng gi.
D n A c chn.

u v nhc im ca IRR
u im
IRR khng ph thuc li sut chit khu i
IRR l sc sinh li quen thuc i vi cc nh qun l

Nhc im
Tnh ton phc tp
Khi tnh ton IRR ca mt d n, chng ta gi thit rng ngn lu
to ra t d n ngay lp tc c ti u t vi sc sinh li bng
IRR ca d n. Trn thc t iu ny rt kh xy ra
C th tn ti nhiu gi tr IRR
S dng IRR so snh d n gp nhiu kh khn, c th dn
n kt lun khng chnh xc

Nn s dng NPV khi so snh v la chn d n
Phng php thi gian hon vn
(Payback Period Method)
Khi nim
Thi gian hon vn (Payback period T
P
)

khong thi
gian (s nm) cn thit b p ton b vn u t
ban u t ngn lu to ra trong mt d n.

Thi gian hon vn ca d n l mt tiu chun o
lng hiu qu n gin v c s dng ph bin
trong thm nh d n u t.

Thi gian hon vn c 2 ch tiu:
Thi gian hon vn n gin (khng chit khu ngn lu)
Thi gian hon vn chit khu
Tnh ton thi gian hon vn (T
P
)
T
P
l nghim ca phng trnh:






trong : C
0
l vn u t ban u,
NCF
t
l dng tin t thi on t.


P
T
1 = t
t
NCF = C
0

Tnh ton thi gian hon vn (T
P
)
T
P
c th xc nh n gin hn bng biu thc:






trong : n l s nm ngn lu tch ly ca d n < 0,
nhng ngn lu tch ly ca d n n
nm n+1 > 0.

1
0
+
=

+ =
n
n
t
t
P
NCF
NCF
n T
T
P
c tnh ton da trn ngn lu ca d n c
chit khu v hin ti, c gi l thi gian hon vn
chit khu.
phn nh ng n hn thi gian hon vn ca
d n
Tnh ton thi gian hon vn (T
P
)
( )

1
P
T
1 = t
+
= C
0

t
t
i
NCF
Tiu chun ra quyt nh
Cc d n c lp Cc d n loi tr nhau

D n c T
P
ngn hn thi
gian hon vn c yu cu
s c chp nhn

D n c T
P
ngn hn l d
n c nh gi cao hn
V d 6
(Thi gian hon vn n gin)
Ly s liu ca v d 1, tnh thi gian hon vn n gin
ca cc d n A, B, v C
Gii:
D n A:
T
P
= 2 + |-10.000 + 5.000 + 4.000|/3.000 = 2.33
D n B:
T
P
= 3 + |-10.000 + 1.000 + 3.000 + 4.000|/6.000 = 3.33
D n C:
T
P
= 3 + |-10.000 + 1.000 + 2.500 + 4.000|/5.000 = 3.50
Nu thi gian hon vn c yu cu l 3 nm, d
n A s c chp nhn, cn d n B v C s b bc
b.
V d 7
(Thi gian hon vn chit khu)
Ly s liu ca v d 1, tnh thi gian hon vn chit
khu ca cc d n A, B, v C. li sut chit khu l
10%.

Nm 0 1 2 3 4
NCF
A
-10.000 5.000 4.000 3.000 1.000
NCF
B
-10.000 1.000 3.000 4.000 6.000
NCF
C
-10.000 1.000 2.500 4.000 5.000
NPV
A (i=10%)
-10.000 4.545,5 3.305,8 2.253,9 683,0
NPV
B (i=10%)
-10.000 909,1 2.479,3 3.005,3 4.098,1
NPV
C (i=10%)
-10.000 909,1 2.066,1 3.005,3 3.415,1
Ngn
lu
Ngn
lu
chit
khu
V d 7 (tip)
(Thi gian hon vn chit khu)
D n A:
T
P
= 2 + |-10.000 + 4.545,5 +3.305,8|/2.253,9
= 2.95
D n B:
T
P
= 3 + |-10.000 + 909,1 + 2.479,3 + 3.005,3|/4.098,1
= 3.88
D n C:
T
P
ca d n C ln hn 4 nm, v ngn lu tch ly ca
d n ny l 9.395,5, cha b p c vn u t
ban u.
u v nhc im ca T
P

u im
Tnh ton n gin, d s dng
Khuyn khch cc d n hon vn nhanh

Nhc im
Cc li ch ca d n sau thi gian hon vn khng
c xem xt thm nh d n km chnh xc.
Vic la chn tiu chun chp nhn d n thng ty
tin v thng thiu cn c.
So snh d n c th dn n kt qu sai lch
V d 8
(Nhc im ca T
P
trong so snh d n)
Gi s cng ty c hai d n loi tr nhau X v Y, vi
cc thng tin lin quan n hai d n ny nh sau:
Nm 0 1 2 3 4 5
NCF X) -9.000 3.000 5.000 4.000 1.000 500
NCF Y) -9.000 1.000 2.000 5.000 6.000 8.000
Vi li sut chit khu i = 10%, d n no c nh
gi cao hn?
V d 8 (tip)
(Nhc im ca T
P
trong so snh d n)
Thi gian hon vn chit khu v hin gi rng ca hai
d n c tnh ton v th hin trong bng sau:
X Y
T
P
2,71 3,65
NPV 1.858,24 3.900,32
Tho lun kt qu?
Theo T
P
, X c nh gi cao hn
Theo NPV, Y c nh gi cao hn
Nn dng tiu chun no?
Phng php sc sinh li k ton
(Accounting Rate of Return - ARR)
Khi nim
ARR l sc sinh li ca d n c tnh ton da vo
li nhun (khng phi l ngn lu) to ra t d n v gi
tr bt ton ca vn u t
ARR c xc nh bng t s gia li nhun rng bnh
qun hng nm v gi tr bnh qun ca gi tr cn li
trn s k ton ca vn u t.
Sc sinh li k ton
Doanh thu
tng thm
Vn u t bnh qun
=
Chi ph
tng thm
-
D n mi:



D n thay th:

Tnh ton ARR
Sc sinh li k ton
Li nhun rng bnh qun
Vn u t bnh qun
=
Tiu chun ra quyt nh
Th tc thm nh d n theo phng php ARR c
thc hin tng t nh phng php IRR.
i vi d n c lp
ARR MARR D n c chp nhn
ARR < MARR D n b t chi
i vi cc d n loi tr nhau
Tin hnh nh gi v so snh theo th tc phn tch
gia s u t
V d 9
(Tnh ton ARR)
Cng ty N ang xem xt mt d n u t (mt dy
chuyn cng ngh) c vn u t ban u l 10.000
triu ng, c khu hao u trong thi hn 5 nm.
Doanh thu, chi ph, v li nhun d kin to ra t d n
c trnh by trong bng k hoch li/l nh sau:
Khon mc Nm 1 2 3 4 5
Doanh thu
Chi ph hot ng
Khu hao
Li nhun trc thu
Thu TNDN (28%)
Li nhun sau thu
8.000
5.000
2.000
1.000
280
720
12.000
7.000
2.000
3.000
840
2.160
14.000
8.000
2.000
4.000
1.120
2.880
10.000
6.000
2.000
2.000
560
1.440
7.000
4.000
2.000
1.000
280
720
V d 9 (tip)
(Tnh ton ARR)
ARR ca d n c tnh nh sau:
Li nhun bnh qun = (720+2.160+2.880+1.440+720)/5
= 1.584
Vn u t bnh qun = (9.000+7.000+5.000+3.000+1.000)/5
= 5.000
ARR = 1.584/5.000
= 31,68%
Khon mc Nm 1 2 3 4 5
Vn u nm
Khu hao
Vn cui nm
Vn bnh qun
*

10.000
2.000
8.000
9.000
8.000
2.000
6.000
7.000
6.000
2.000
4.000
5.000
4.000
2.000
2.000
3.000
2.000
2.000
0
1.000
Tho lun v ARR
u im
Tnh ton n gin, d s dng

Nhc im
Khng xem xt gi tr theo thi gian ca tin
Ngng chp nhn d n thng thng l sc sinh
li thc t hin hnh ca doanh nghip vic nh
gi d n c th khng tha ng
La chn li sut chit khu
Chn li sut chit khu (discount rate) l mt vn
phc tp trong ti chnh
Sut chit khu (i) thng c chn nhiu nht
l gi s dng vn (Cost of Capital) ca cng ty.
Cc cng ty quan tm n gi s dng vn v n
c xem l t sut hon vn ti thiu chp nhn
c (Minimum Attractive Rate of Return
MARR).

Li sut chit khu
63
Li sut chit khu
MARR l mt hm ca gi s dng vn trung
bnh WACC.
MARR c xc nh cn c vo WACC v
mc ri ro ca d n.


Li sut chit khu
Trong thc tin hin nay, vic xc nh MARR
c thc hin ph bin nh sau:
Xc nh WACC ca doanh nghip v xem
nh l ci mc ban u
c lng ri ro ca d n
Xc nh MARR

MARR = WACC + Phn b ri ro (%)
65
Sut thu li ti thiu chp nhn c
V du:
- Neu doanh nghiep au t san xuat theo cong nghe mi, MARR c
xac nh bang WACC cong 5%--->7%
- Neu doanh nghiep au t vao san xuat kinh doanh nhng san pham
cha co tren th trng trong nc, nhng a pho bien th trng
nc khac, MARR c chon bang WACC cong 3%--->5%
- D an au t m rong, thay the thiet b, chon MARR bang WACC
hoac gia s dung von vay dai han