Chuong 2 - Mo Hinh Is - LM Va Tong Cau Trong Nen KT Dong (Gui SV)

KINH T V M II
CHNG II:
M HNH IS LM V
TNG CU TRONG NN KT NG
29/11/2010 Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU 2
M hnh IS LM (Investment/Saving - Liquidity
Preference/Money Supply) c bit n nh l m
hnh Hicks Hansen, c nh KT hc John Hicks
(1904 1989) v nh KT hc ca M l Alvin
Hansen (1887 1975) a ra v pht trin trong
nhng nm 1930 nhm gii thch tc phm c nh
hng ln ca Keynes L thuyt chung v vic lm,
li sut v tin t.
CHNG II: M HNH IS LM V
M hnh IS LM coi nn KT bao gm 2 th
trng: th trng hng ha v th trng tin t.

im quan trng trong MH ny l chng ta
khng th phn tch ring r tng th trng, bi
v gia cc th trng c s tng tc ln nhau.
Gi nh:
Mc gi chung khng i
Nn KT cn nhiu ngun lc cha c s
dng ht, tc l tng cung lun p ng tng
cu. Trong bi cnh ,
I. Th trng hng ha v ng IS
1. M hnh giao im Keynes
Cng c chnh xy dng ng IS l m
hnh giao im Keynes.
Trong nn kinh t ng gin n ta c tng chi
tiu d kin (Aggregate Planned Expenditure:
APE/AE) ca nn KT l:
Trong :
C

I
G
T
Trc ht, gi s rng li sut c nh mc:
Mc T theo k hoch I (r) cng l ngoi sinh:
r r
Khi :
APE = C + I +G
Nn KT t trng thi cn bng khi: APE = Y
Tc l:
APE
Y
2. M hnh ng IS
a. Khi nim
ng IS l tp hp tt c nhng im biu th mi
quan h gia li sut v SL cn bng tha mn iu
kin th trng hng ha cn bng (APE = Y).
b. Cch xy dng ng I S
xy dng ng IS, chng ta nghin cu mi
quan h gia li sut (biu hin ca th trng tin
t) v tng chi tiu d kin (biu hin ca th trng
hng ha)
2. M hnh ng IS
Nh ni trn:
APE = C(Y-T) + I(r) + G
r
APE
45
0

Y
Y
0

E
0

E
0

r
0

r
Y Y
0

2. M hnh ng IS
Lu :
Khi li sut thay i cc yu t kinh t khc
khng i th sn lng cn bng s

Khi c cc yu t khc thay i m khng phi
l li sut s lm APE dch chuyn t lm
cho ng IS
2. M hnh ng IS
V d:
Trong nn KT ng, CP nh thu t nh, nu li
sut khng i, nu CP tng G hoc gim T hoc
thc hin c 2 bin php
APE
45
0

Y
Y
0

E
0

E
0

r
0

r
Y Y
0

IS
0

2. M hnh ng IS
c. dc ng I S

dc ca ng IS ph thuc vo:
2. M hnh ng IS
* S nhy cm ca u t vi li sut:
Nu u t nhy cm vi li sut
2. M hnh ng IS
r
r
r
1

r
0

I
IS
1

Y
Y
0

I
1

Y
1

Y
1
I
1

I
0

I
1

2. M hnh ng IS
* ln ca s nhn chi tiu:
II. Th trng tin t v ng LM
1. L thuyt a thch thanh khon ca Keynes
Cn bng trn th trng tin t xy ra khi cung
tin thc t (Real Money Supply: MS
r
) bng
cu tin thc t (Real Money Demand: MD
r

hay Liquidity Preference: L), tc l:
1. L thuyt a thch thanh khon
ca Keynes
Trong :
Cung tin thc t ph thuc vo cung tin danh
ngha mt bin chnh sch, do NHTW quyt
nh, v mc gi c coi l bin ngoi sinh
trong m hnh.
ca Keynes
Cu tin thc t MD
r
= L(Y,r)

ca Keynes
Vi gi nh mc gi khng i (khng c lm pht,
= 0) th li sut thc t s bng li sut danh
ngha (r = i - = i) v lng cung tin danh ngha
do NHTW quyt nh, ta s c:
Cn bng trn th trng tin t
r
M
2. M hnh ng LM
a. Khi nim
ng LM l tp hp tt c nhng im biu th
mi quan h gia sn lng v li sut cn bng
tha mn iu kin th trng tin t cn bng.
b. Cch xy dng ng LM
xy dng ng LM chng ta cng nghin
cu mi quan h gia thu nhp hay sn lng
(th trng HH) v cu tin (th trng tin t).
2. M hnh ng LM
Khi Y
2. M hnh ng LM
P
MS
r

M
E
0

r
0

r
Y
L
0
= L(Y
0
,r)
2. M hnh ng LM
Lu :
Khi thu nhp thay i cn cc yu t kinh t khc
cho trc th

Khi thu nhp khng i nhng cung tin hoc cu
tin thay i th
2. M hnh ng LM
V d 1:
Gi s NHTW tng cung tin, trong iu kin mc
gi P khng i, cung tin thc t s tng.
2. M hnh ng LM
P
MS
0
r
r
0

M
E
0

r
Y
LM
0

Y
0

L(Y
0
,r)
E
0

2. M hnh ng LM
V d 2:
Gi s tnh trng gian ln th tn dng gia tng
lm cho ngi tiu dng s dng tin mt thng
xuyn hn thc hin cc giao dch
2. M hnh ng LM
P
MS
r

M
E
0

r
0

r
Y
LM
0

Y
0

L
0
= L(Y
0
, r
0
)
E
0

2. M hnh ng LM
c. dc ng LM
ng LM c dc dng

dc ca ng LM ph thuc vo
2. M hnh ng LM
P
MS
r

L
1
(Y
2
)
M
E
0

r
0

r
Y
LM
1

Y
1

L
1
(Y
1
)
E
0

E
1

E
1

Y
2

r
1

III. Cn bng ng thi trn th
trng hng ha v tin t
ng IS v LM ln lt l tp hp cc im
biu th mi quan h gia thu nhp v li sut
m bo cho th trng hng ha v th trng
tin t cn bng, do trng thi cn bng
ng thi c hai th trng ny xc lp ti
giao im ca hai ng IS LM.
trng hng ha v tin t
r
Y
trng hng ha v tin t
xc nh mc TN v LS cn bng (Y
0
, r
0
)
chng ta gii h phng trnh i s biu din
ng IS v LM.
Phng trnh ng IS:

Phng trnh ng LM:
VI. Phn tch chnh sch vi m hnh
IS LM
1. Chnh sch ti kha v ng IS
a. Chnh sch ti kha
CSTK l vic CP s dng cc bin php nhm
thay i thu hoc chi tiu iu tit nn KT.

Gi s CP thc hin CSTK m rng thng qua
vic tng chi tiu CP.
APE
45
0

Y
Y
0

E
0

E
0

r
0

r
Y Y
0

IS
0

r
0

Y
0

E
0

LM
IS
0

r
Y
Trng hp CP tng c chi tiu v thu t nh mt
lng nh nhau
Khi CP thc hin vic gim thu
APE
45
0

Y
Y
0

E
0

E
0

r
0

r
Y Y
0

IS
0

r
0

Y
0

E
0

LM
IS
0

r
Y
b. Hin tng ln t u t v hiu qu ca CSTK
Vic u t t nhn b gim khi CP tng chi tiu
gi l hin tng thoi lui hay ln t u t
(Crowding out domestic investment).

Hin tng ln t (thoi lui) u t
r
0

Y
0

E
0

LM
IS
0

r
Y
Quy m thoi lui u t l mc SL gim do LS tng:

Vy nhng yu t nh hng n quy m thoi lui
v hiu qu ca CSTK?
dc ca ng LM

Hiu qu ca CSTK v dc ng LM
r
0

Y
0

E
0

LM
IS
0

r
Y
dc ca ng I S hay nhy cm ca
u t vi li sut
Hiu qu ca CSTK v dc ng IS
r
0

Y
0

E
0

LM
IS
0

r
Y
ln ca s nhn chi tiu

2. Chnh sch tin t v ng LM
a. Chnh sch tin t
CSTT l vic NHTW s dng cc cng c ca
mnh nhm thay i lng cung tin qua tc
ng n tng cu v sn lng.
Gi s NHTW p dng CSTT m rng
r
0

Y
0

E
0

LM
IS
0

r
Y
Kt qu cui cng l
b. Nhn t quyt nh hiu qu ca CSTT
C 3 nhn t c bn quyt nh hiu qu ca
CSTT:
nhy cm ca MD vi li sut ( dc ca LM)
MD cng t nhy cm vi li sut (MD cng dc,
LM cng dc)
Hiu qu ca CSTT v dc ng LM
r
0

Y
0

E
0

LM
IS
r
Y
nhy cm ca u t vi li sut ( dc
ca ng I S)

Hiu qu ca CSTT v dc ng IS
r
r
0

Y Y
0

E
0

LM
0

LM
1

Y
1

r
1

E
1

IS
1

ln ca s nhn chi tiu

V. Phi hp CSTK v CSTT
1. CSTK m rng - CSTT m rng
Tc ng:

Kt qu:
iu kin p dng:
1. CSTK m rng - CSTT m rng
r
0

Y
0

E
0

LM
IS
0

r
Y
2. CSTK tht cht - CSTT tht cht
Tc ng:

Kt qu:
iu kin p dng:
2. CSTK tht cht - CSTT tht cht
r
0

Y
0

E
0

IS
0

r
Y
LM
0

3. CSTK m rng - CSTT tht cht
Tc ng:

Kt qu:
iu kin p dng:
3. CSTK m rng - CSTT tht cht
r
0

Y
0

E
0

LM
IS
r
Y
4. CSTK tht cht CSTT m rng
Tc ng:

Kt qu:
iu kin p dng:
4. CSTK tht cht - CSTT m rng
r
0

Y
0

E
0

LM
IS
r
Y

Chuong 2 - Mo Hinh Is - LM Va Tong Cau Trong Nen KT Dong (Gui SV)

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