B THI V LI GII XC SUT THNG K 1

S 1
1. ng knh ca mt loi trc my l mt i lng ngu nhin c phn phi chun
=
N ( 250
=
mm; 2 25mm 2 ) . Trc my c gi l hp quy cch nu ng knh t
245mm n 255mm. Cho my sn xut 100 trc. Tnh xc sut :
a. C 50 trc hp quy cch.
b. C khng qu 80 trc hp quy cch.
2. Quan st mt mu (ngi) , ta c bng thng k chiu cao X(cm), trng lng Y(kg):
X

150-155

50
55
60
65
70
75

5
2

155-160

160-165

165-170

15
8
10

4
17
6

170-175

Y
11
3

7
12

a. c lng chiu cao trung bnh vi tin cy = 95% .

b. Nhng ngi cao t 170cm tr ln gi l qu cao. c lng trng lng trung bnh
nhng ngi qu cao vi tin cy 99%.
c. Mt ti liu thng k c cho bit t l nhng ngi qu nng ( 70kg ) l 30%. Cho
kt lun v ti liu , vi mc ngha = 10% .
d. Lp phng trnh tng quan tuyn tnh ca Y theo X.

BI GII
1. Gi D l ng knh trc my th D =
N ( 250mm=
; 2 25mm 2 ) .
Xc sut trc hp quy cch l:

thi:GS ng Hn. Li gii:Th.S L L.

Ti liu dng cho sinh vin i hc, hc vin thi Th.s, NCS.

Page 1

p = p[245 D 255] = (

255 250
245 250
) (
) = (1) (1) 2
5
5

= 2 (1) 1 = 2.0,8413 1 = 0, 6826 .

Gi E l s trc my hp quy cch trong 100 trc,
E B (n =100; p =0, 6826) N ( =np =68, 26; 2 =npq =21, 67)

a.

50
p[ E =
50] =
C100
0, 682650.0,317450

b.

1
=
(3,9)
21, 67
p[0 E 80] = (

1
50 68, 26
1
)=
(
(3,9) 3
21, 67
21, 67
21, 67

1
.0, 0002 0, 00004
=
21, 67
80 68, 26
0 68, 26
) (
) = (2.52) (14, 66)
21, 67
21, 67

= (2.52) + (14, 66) 1 =0,9941 + 1 1 =0,9941

2.
a. n=100, S x = 5, 76 , X = 164,35

=1 =1 0,95 =0, 05
t(0,05;99) = 1,96 4

X t

Sx
S
1,96.5, 76
1,96.5, 76
X + t x 164,35
164,35 +
100
100
n
n
Vy 163, 22cm 165, 48cm

(1) = 1 (1)

Dng nh l tch phn Laplace . Tra bng phn phi chun tc vi lu :

Dng nh l Laplace a phng . Tra hm mt chun tc vi lu hm mt chun tc l hm chn.

Tra bng phn phi Student,

1
u , (u ) =
= 0, 05 v 99 bc t do. Khi bc t do n>30, t( ;n ) =

Page 2

b. nqc = 19 , Yqc = 73,16 , S qc = 2, 48

=1 =1 0,99 =0, 01
t(0,01;18) = 2,878

Yqc t

S qc
nqc

Yqc + t

S qc
nqc

73,16

2,878.2, 48
2,878.2, 48
73,16 +
19
19

Vy 71,52kg 74,80kg
c.=
H 0 : p 0,3; H1 : p 0,3
=
f

=
U tn

35
= 0,35
100
f p0
0,35 0,3
=
= 1, 091
0,3.0, 7
p0 (1 p0 )
100
n

=0, 05, (U ) =1

=0,975 U =1,96 9 (hoc t(0,05) = 1,96 )

| U tn |< U , chp nhn H 0 :ti liu ng.

d.

y y
xx
= rxy
sy
sx

y=
102,165 + 1, 012 x .

Page 3

 S 2
1. Cho ba i lng ngu nhin c lp X,Y,Z trong X B(50;0, 6), Y N (250;100) v
Z l tng s chnh phm trong 2 sn phm c ly ra t 2 l hng, mi l c 10 sn
phm, l I c 6 chnh phm v l II c 7 chnh phm. Tnh M (U ), D(U ) 5 , trong
=
U Mod ( X ) X + D(Y )Y + P[ Z > 1].Z

2. Quan st mt mu (cy cng nghip) , ta c bng thng k ng knh X(cm), chiu cao
Y(m):
X

20-22

3
4
5
6
7
8

2
5

22-24

24-26

26-28

8
15
10

4
17
6

28-30

Y
3
11

7
12

a. Lp phng trnh tng quan tuyn tnh ca Y theo X.

b. Kim tra tnh phn phi chun ca X vi mc ngha 5%.
c. c lng ng knh trung bnh vi tin cy 95% v chnh xc 5mm th cn
iu tra thm bao nhiu cy na?
d. Nhng cy cao khng di 7m gi l loi A. c lng t l cy loi A vi tin
cy 99%.

BI GII
1. X B(50;0, 6) nn
np q Mod ( X ) np q + 1 50.0, 6 0, 4 Mod ( X ) 50.0, 6 0, 4 + 1
29, 6 Mod ( X ) 31, 6
Vy Mod ( X ) = 30
M ( X=
) np
= 50.0,=
6 30

K vng ca U v phng sai ca U

Page 4

D (=
X ) npq
= 50.0, 6.0,
=
4 12

Y N (250;100) nn
M (Y =
) = 250
2
D(Y=
) =
100

p[ Z= 0]
= 0, 4.0,3= 0,12
p[ Z =
1] =
0, 6.0,3 + 0, 4.0, 7 =
0, 46
p[ Z =
2] =
1 (0,12 + 0, 46) =
0, 42

Z
p

0
0,12

1
0,46

2
0,42

p[ Z > 1] = p[ Z = 2] = 0, 42
M ( Z ) = 0.0,12 + 1.0, 46 + 2.0, 42 = 1,3

M ( Z 2 ) = 02.0,12 + 12.0, 46 + 22.0, 42 = 2,14

2
D( Z=
) M ( Z 2 ) M 2 ( Z ) = 2,14 1,3=
0, 45

Vy U = 30 X + 100Y + 0, 42 Z suy ra
M (U ) = 30 M ( X ) + 100 M (Y ) + 0, 42 M ( Z )
=
30.30 + 100.250 + 0, 42.1,3 =
25900,546

D(U ) = 302 D( X ) + 1002 D(Y ) + 0, 422 D( Z )

=
302.12 + 1002.100 + 0, 422.0, 45 =
1010800, 079
2. a.

y y
xx
= rxy
y=
4,98 + 0, 43 x .
sy
sx

b. H 0 : ng knh cy c phn phi chun

Page 5

H1 : ng knh cy khng c phn phi chun

X
ni

20-22
7

22-24
14

24-26
33

26-28
27

28-30
19

x = 25, 74 , sx = 2,30 ,N=100.

Nu X tun thep phn phi chun th

p1 = (

22 25, 74
20 25, 74
) (
) = (1, 63) (2,50)
2,30
2,30

= (2,50) (1, 63) = 1 0,9484 = 0, 0516

p2 = (

24 25, 74
22 25, 74
) (
) = (0, 76) (1, 63)
2,30
2,30

= (1, 63) (0, 76) = 0,9484 0, 7764 = 0,172

p3 = (

26 25, 74
24 25, 74
) (
) = (0,11) (0, 76)
2,30
2,30

= (0,11) + (0, 76) 1 =0,5438 + 0, 7764 1 =0,3203

p4 = (

28 25, 74
26 25, 74
) (
) = (0,98) (0,11)
2,30
2,30

= 0,8365 0,5438 = 0, 2927

p5 = (

30 25, 74
28 25, 74
) (
) = (1,85) (0,98) = 0,1634
2,30
2, 30

Lp
ni

20-22
7

22-24
14

24-26
33

26-28
27

28-30
19

pi

0,0516

0,1720

0,3203

0,2927

0,1634

ni, = N . pi

5,16

17,20

32,03

29,27

16,34

(ni ni, ) 2 (7 5,16) 2

(19 16,34) 2
=
=
++
= 1,8899
5,16
16,34
ni
2

Page 6

2
2
(0,05;5
(0,05;2)
=
5,991 6
2 1) =

2
nn chp nhn H 0 :ng knh ca cy l i lng ngu nhin thuc
2 < (0,05;2)

phn phi chun

vi 25,
=
=
74, 2 5, 29
c.

tsx
ts
n ( x )2

n
t(0,05)
= 1,96,
=
sx 2,30,
=
5=
mm 0,5cm

1,96.2,30 2
n(
) =
81,3 . n 82
0,5
iu tra 100 cy , vy khng cn iu tra thm na.
d.

fa t
=
fa

f a (1 f a )
p fa + t
n

f a (1 f a )
n

35
= 0,35
100

=1 =1 0,99 =0, 01
t(0,01) = 2,58

0,35 2,58

0,35.0, 65
0,35.0, 65
p 0,35 + 2, 58
100
100

0, 227 p 0, 473

T l cy loi A trong khong t 22,7% n 47,3%.

S lp l 5, phn phi chun

lp-s tham s-1=5-2-1=2.

N ( ; 2 ) c 2 tham s nn: tra bng chi bnh phng 2 vi bc t do bng: s

Page 7

 S 3
1. Mt x nghip c 2 my. Trong ngy hi thi, mi cng nhn s chn ngu nhin mt my
v sn xut 100 sn phm. Nu s sn phm loi I khng t hn 70 th c thng. Gi
s cng nhn A xc sut sn xut sn phm loi I vi 2 my ln lt l 0,6 v 0,7.
a. Tnh xc sut A c thng.
b. Gi s A d thi 200 ln, s ln A c thng tin chc nht l bao nhiu?
c. A phi d thi t nht bao nhiu ln xc sut c t nht mt ln c thng khng
di 90%?
2. Theo di s ko X (kg) bn trong 1 tun, ta c:
xi

0-50

50-100

100-150

150-200

200-250

250-300

300-350

ni

23

27

30

25

20

a. c lng s ko trung bnh bn c trong 1 tun vi chnh xc 10kg v

tin cy 99% th cn iu tra thm bao nhiu tun na?
b. Bng cch thay i mu m, ngi ta thy s ko trung bnh bn c trong 1 tun l
200kg. Vic thay i ny c hiu qu g v bn cht khng? (mc ngha 5%)
c. Nhng tun bn t 250kg tr ln l nhng tun hiu qu. c lng t l nhng tun
hiu qu vi tin cy 90%.
d. c lng s ko trung bnh bn c trong nhng tun c hiu qu vi tin cy
98%.

BI GII
1.
a.

Gi T l bin c cng nhn A c thng .

I: Bin c cng nhn A chn my I.

II: Bin c cng nhn A chn my II.
=
P ( I ) P=
( II ) 0,5
=
P(T ) P ( I ).P (T / I ) + P ( II ).P (=
T / II ) P ( I ).P[70 X 100] + P ( II ).P[70 Y 100]

trong X B(100;0, 6) N (60; 24), Y B(100;0, 7) N (70; 21)

Page 8

100 60
70 60
) (
) = (8,16) (2, 04) = 1 0,9793 = 0, 0207
p[70 X 100] = (
24
24
100 70
70 70
p[70 Y 100] = (
) (
) = (6,55) (0) = 1 0,5 = 0,5
21
21
1
(0, 0207 + 0,5)
= 0, 26
2

Vy P=
(T )

b. Gi Z l s ln c thng trong 200 ln A tham gia thi , Z B (200;0, 26)

np q Mod ( Z ) np q + 1 200.0, 26 0, 74 Mod ( Z ) 200.0, 26 0, 74 + 1

51, 26 Mod ( Z ) 52,56 . Mod(Z)=52. S ln A c thng tin chc nht l 52.

c. Gi n l s ln d thi.
M: Bin c t nht mt ln A c thng
n

P( M ) = 1 P(T ) = 1 0, 7 n 4.
i =1

1 0, 74 n 0,9 0, 74 n 0,1 n log 0,74 0,1 =

7, 6 n 8 .
Vy A phi d thi t nht 8 ln.
2. a. n=139 , sx = 79,3 , t(0,01) = 2,58 , = 10
ts
tsx
n ( x )2

n
n(

2,58.79,3 2
=
) 418, 6 n 419 . Vy iu tra t nht 419-139=280 tun na.
10

b. H 0 : = 200
H1 : 200
=
n 139,
=
x 167,8,
=
sx 79,3
Page 9

Ttn =

( x 0 ) n (167,8 200) 139

=
= 4, 7873
79, 3
sx

t(0,05) = 1,96
| Ttn |> t(0,05;138) : Bc b H 0 , tc l vic thay i mu m lm tng lng ko bn ra
trong tun.

c.

f hq t
=
f hq

f hq (1 f hq )
n

p f hq + t

f hq (1 f hq )
n

25
= 0,18
139

=1 =1 0,9 =0,1 , t(0,1) = 1, 65 .

0,18 1, 65

0,18.0,82
0,18.0,82
p 0,18 + 1, 65
139
139

0,1262 p 0, 2338

T l nhng tun c hiu qu chim t 12,62% n 23,38%

d. nhq = 25 , xhq = 285 , shq = 20, 41

=1 =1 0,98 =0, 02
t(0,02;24) = 2, 492

xhq t

shq
nhq

xhq + t

shq
nhq

285 2, 492.

20, 41
20, 41
285 + 2, 492.
25
25

Vy 274,83kg 295,17 kg . Trung bnh mi tun hiu qu bn t 274,83 kg n

295,17kg ko.

Page 10

 S 4
1. C 3 ging la, sn lng ca chng (n v tn/ha) l 3 i lng ngu nhin
X 1 N (8;0,8), X 2 N (10;0, 6), X 3 N (10;0,5) . Cn chn mt trong 3 ging trng,
theo bn cn chn ging no?Ti sao?
2. S kw gi in s dng trong 1 thng ca h loi A l X N (90;100) . Mt t dn ph
gm 50 h loi A. Gi in l 2000 /kw gi, tin ph dch v l 10 000 mt thng. D
on s tin in phi tr trong 1 thng ca t vi tin cy 95%.
3. X( %) v Y(cm) l 2 ch tiu ca mt sn phm. Kim tra mt s sn phm ta c:
X
Y
100-105
105-110
110-115
115-120
120-125
125-130
130-135
135-140

0-2

5
7
3

2-4

10
9
8
15

4-8

8-10

16
25
13
15

9
8
17
11
14

10-12

8
9
6
5

a. c lng trung bnh X vi chnh xc 0,2% th m bo tin cy bao

nhiu?
b. Nhng sn phm c X di 2% l loi II. c lng trung bnh Y ca sn phm
loi II vi tin cy 95%.
c. Cc sn phm c Y 125cm l loi I. c lng trung bnh X cc sn phm
loi I cn iu tra thm bao nhiu sn phm na , nu mun chnh xc l 0,3%
v tin cy 95%?
d. Gi s Y ca sn phm loi II c phn phi chun, c lng phng sai ca Y
nhng sn phm loi II vi tin cy 90%.

BI GII
1. Chn ging X 3 v nng sut trung bnh cao nht (k vng ln nht) v n nh nng
sut cao nht (phng sai b nht ) .
2. Trc ht c lng khong s kw gi in 1 h loi A phi dng trong 1 thng.
Dng quy tc 2 , ta c: a u a + u
=
a 90,
=
10

Page 11

 =1 =1 0,95 =0, 05
(u ) =1

=0,974 u =1,96

90 1,96.10 90 + 1,96.10 70, 4 109, 6

Vy h loi A dng t 70,4 kw gi n 109,6 kg gi in trong 1 thng
Trong 1 thng c t phi tr s tin t 50(70, 4.2000 + 10000) ng n
50(109, 6.2000 + 10000) ng , tc l khong t 7 540 000 n 11 460 000 ng .
3. a. n=213, x = 6,545 , sx = 3, 01 . = 0, 2
tsx
. n 0, 2. 213
t=
= 0,97
= =
sx
3, 01
n
1

=
(0,97) =
0,8340 = (1 0,8340)2 = 0,332

tin cy =1 =0, 668 =66,8% .

b. n2 15,
=
=
y2 = 106,83, s2 3, 72 ,

=1 =1 0,95 =0, 05
t(0,05;14) = 2,145

y2 t

s2
s
3, 72
3, 72
y2 + t 2 106,83 2,145.
106,83 + 2,145.
15
n2
n2
15

Vy 104, 77cm 108,89cm , trung bnh ch tiu Y ca sn phm loi II

t 104,77 cm n 108,89 cm.
c. s1 = 1,91 , t(0,05) = 1,96 , = 0,3 .
ts
tsx
n ( x )2

Page 12

1,96.1,91 2
n(
=
) 155, 7 n 156 . M n1 = 60 , nn iu tra thm t nht 156-60=96
0,3
sn phm loi I na.
d. Khong c lng phng sai

(n 1) s y2
2

( ; n 1)
2

(n 1) s y2
2

(1 ; n 1)
2

2
2
=
6, 4 , (0,95;14)
=
6,571
n=15, s y2 = 13,81 , (0,025;14)

Khong c lng phng sai ca Y (cc sn phm loi II) l

14.13,81 14.13,81
[
;
] , tc l t 7,32 cm 2 n 29,42 cm 2 .
6, 4
6,571

Page 13

 S 5
1. C 3 l sn phm, mi l c 10 sn phm. L th i c i ph phm. Ly ngu nhin mi
l 1 sn phm. Tnh xc sut:
a. C 3 u tt.
b. C ng 2 tt.
c. S sn phm tt ng bng s ng xu sp khi tung 2 ng xu.
2. Theo di s pht trin chiu cao ca cy bch n trng trn t phn sau mt nm, ta c:
xi (cm)

250-300

300-350

350-400

400-450

450-500

500-550

550-600

ni

20

25

30

30

23

14

a. Bit chiu cao trung bnh ca bch n sau mt nm trng trn t khng phn l
4,5m. Vi mc ngha 0,05 c cn tin hnh bin php khng phn cho bch n
khng?
b. c lng chiu cao trung bnh bch n mt nm tui vi chnh xc 0,2m th
m bo tin cy l bao nhiu?
c. Nhng cy cao khng qu 3,5m l chm ln. c lng chiu cao trung bnh cc cy
chm ln vi tin cy 98%.
d. C ti liu cho bit phng sai chiu cao bch n chm ln l 400. Vi mc ngha
5%, c chp nhn iu ny khng?

BI GII
1.
a. p 0,9.0,8.0,
=
=
7 0,504
b. p = 0,9.0,8.0,3 + 0,9.0, 2.0, 7 + 0,1.0,8.0, 7 = 0,398
c. X: s ng xu sp khi tung 2 ng xu. X=0,1,2.
Y: s sn phm tt trong 3 sn phm
p=p[Y=0]+p[Y=1]+p[Y=2]
=
p 0,1.0, 2.0,3 + 0,9.0, 2.0,3 + 0,1.0,8.0,3 + 0,1.0, 2.0, 7 + 0,398
= 0, 496

2.
a. H 0 : = 450
Page 14

H1 : 450
Ttn =

( x 0 ) n
s

=
x 438,
=
n 147,
=
s 81,53

(438 450) 147

= 1, 78
81,53

=
Ttn

t(0,05) = 1,96
| Ttn |< t(0,05) : chp nhn H 0 , cha cn bin php khng phn cho bch n.

b.=
x 438,
=
n 147,
=
s 81,53,
=
0,=
2m 20cm
tsx
. n 20. 147
=
= 2,97
= t=
sx
81,53
n
1

=
(2,97) =
0,9985 = (1 0,9985)2 = 0, 003

tin cy =1 =0,997 =99, 7% .

c. ncl = 25, xcl = 315 , scl = 20, 41

=1 =1 0,98 =0, 02
t(0,02;24) = 2, 492

xcl t

scl
s
20, 41
20, 41
xcl + t cl 315 2, 492.
315 + 2, 492.
ncl
ncl
25
25

Vy 304,83cm 325,17cm
d. H 0 : 2 = 400
H1 : 2 400

Page 15

(n 1) s cl
(25 1)20, 412
2

= 24,994
=
400
02
2

(1 ; n 1)
2

( ; n 1)
2

2
12, 4
=
(0,975;24)
=

2
39, 4
=
(0,025;24)
=

2
2
(0,975;24)
< 2 < (0,025;24)
: Chp nhn H 0 .

Page 16

 S 6
1. Mt my sn xut vi t l ph phm 5%. Mt l sn phm gm 10 sn phm vi t l
ph phm 30%. Cho my sn xut 3 sn phm v t l ly thm 3 sn phm. X l s sn
phm tt trong 6 sn phm ny.
a. Lp bng phn phi ca X.
b. Khng dng bng phn phi ca X, tnh M(X) v D(X).
2. Tin hnh quan st bn X (kg / mm 2 ) ca mt loi thp, ta c:
xi (cm)

95-115

115-135

135-155

155-175

175-195

195-215

215-235

ni

15

19

23

31

29

21

a. S t tin cy bao nhiu khi c lng bn trung bnh X vi chnh xc

3kg / mm 2 ?
b. Bng cch thay i thnh phn nguyn liu khi luyn thp , ngi ta lm cho bn
trung bnh ca thp l 170kg / mm 2 . Cho kt lun v ci tin ny vi mc ngha
1%.
c. Thp c bn t 195kg / mm 2 tr ln gi l thp bn. c lng bn trung bnh
ca thp bn vi tin cy 98%.
d. C ti liu cho bit t l thp bn l 40%. Cho nhn xt v ti liu ny vi mc
ngha 1%.

BI GII
1.
a.

X 1 : s sn phm tt trong 3 sn phm my sn xut ra.

X 1 B(3;0,95)
p[ X=
k=
] C3k 0,95k 0, 053 k
1

X1

pi

0,000125

0,007125

0,135375

0,857375

X 2 : s sn phm tt trong 3 sn phm ly ra t l 10 sn phm.

Page 17

X 2 thuc phn phi siu bi

C7k .C33 k
.
p[ X=
k=
]
2
C103

X2

pi

1
120

21
120

63
120

25
120

X
= X 1 + X 2 : s sn phm tt trong 6 sn phm
p[ X= 0]
= p[ X=
0]. p[ X =
0]
= 0, 000125.
1
2

1
= 0, 000001
120

p[ X =
1] =
p[ X 1 =
0, X 2 =
1] + p[ X 1 =
1, X 2 =
0] =
0, 000125.

Tng t , ta c :

21
1
+ 0, 007125.
=
0, 000081
120
120

p[ X= 2]
= 0, 002441 .

p[ X ==
3] p[ X 1 =
0, X 2 =+
3] p[ X 1 =
1, X 2 =+
2] p[ X 1 =
2, X 2 =
1]
+ p[ X 1 = 3, X 2 = 0] .
p[ X ==
4] p[ X 1 =
0, X 2 =+
4] p[ X 1 =
1, X 2 =
3] + p[ X 1 =
2, X 2 =
2]
+ p[ X 1 =
3, X 2 =
1] + p[ X 1 =
4, X 2 =
0] .
p[ X ==
5] p[ X 1 =
0, X 2 =+
5] p[ X 1 =
1, X 2 =+
4] p[ X 1 =
2, X 2 =
3]
+ p[ X 1 =
3, X 2 =
2] + p[ X 1 =
4, X 2 =
1] + p[ X 1 =
5, X 2 =
0] .
p[ X ==
6] p[ X 1 =
0, X 2 =+
6] p[ X 1 =
1, X 2 =+
5] p[ X 1 =
2, X 2 =
4]
+ p[ X 1 =
3, X 2 =
3] + p[ X 1 =
4, X 2 =
2 + p][ X 1 =
5, X 2 =
1] + p[ X 1 =
6, X 2 =
0 . ]
b. M
=
( X ) M ( X1 ) + M ( X 2 )
Page 18

M ( X1 ) =
xi pi =
2,85, M ( X 2 ) =
2, 025 . M ( X ) = 4,875 .
D
=
( X ) D( X 1 ) + D( X 2 )
D( X 1 ) = M ( X 12 ) M 2 ( X 1 ) = 8, 265 2,852 = 0,1425
D( X 2 ) =
M ( X 22 ) M 2 ( X 2 ) =
4,9 2, 0252 =
0, 7994 . D( X ) = 0,9419 .

2.
a.

n=144, sx = 33, 41 , = 3
tsx
. n 3. 144
= t == = 1, 08
sx
33, 41
n
1

0,8599 = (1 0,8599)2 = 0, 2802

=
(1, 08) =

tin cy =1 =0, 7198 =71,98% .

b. H 0 : = 170
H1 : 170
=
x 162,=
64, n 144,
=
s 33, 41
Ttn =

( x 0 ) n
(162, 64 170) 144
Ttn =
= 2, 644
s
33, 41

t(0,01) = 2,58
| Ttn |> t(0,01;143) : bc b H 0 , ci tin lm tng bn ca thp.

c. n=
209,
=
444, stb 8, 473 ,
tb = 27, xtb

=1 =1 0,98 =0, 02
t(0,02;26) = 2, 479

Page 19

xtb t

stb
s
xtb + t tb
ntb
ntb

209, 444 2, 479.

8, 473
8, 473
.
209, 444 + 2, 479.
27
27

Vy 205,36kg / mm 2 213, 44kg / mm 2 .

d.=
H 0 : p 0, 4; H1 : p 0, 4
=
ftb

U tn =

27
= 0,1875
144

ftb p0
0,1875 0, 4
=
= 5, 025
0, 4.0, 6
p0 (1 p0 )
144
n

t(0,01) = 2,58

| U tn |> U , bc b H 0 :ti liu cho t l qu cao so vi thc t.

Page 20

 S 7
1. mt x nghip may mc, sau khi may qun o, ngi ta ng thnh tng kin , mi kin
3 b (3 qun, 3 o). Khi ng kin thng c hin tng xp nhm s. Xc sut xp qun
ng s l 0,8. Xc sut xp o ng s l 0,7. Mi kin gi l c chp nhn nu s
qun xp ng s v s o xp ng s l bng nhau.
a. Kim tra 100 kin. Tm xc sut c 40 kin c chp nhn.
b. Phi kim tra t nht bao nhiu kin xc sut c t nht mt kin c chp nhn
khng di 90%?
2. X( %) v Y( kg / mm 2 ) l 2 ch tiu ca mt sn phm. Kim tra mt s sn phm ta c:
X
Y
115-125
125-135
135-145
145-155
155-165

0-5

7
12

5-10

10-15

8
20
19

10
15
16

15-20

20-25

2
9
8

5
3

a. Gi s trung bnh tiu chun ca Y l 120kg / mm 2 . Cho nhn xt v tnh hnh sn

xut vi mc ngha 1%.
b. Sn phm c ch tiu X 15% l sn phm loi A. c lng trung bnh ch tiu X
ca sn phm loi A vi tin cy 99% . c lng im t l sn phm loi A .
c. c lng trung bnh ch tiu Y vi chnh xc 0, 6kg / mm 2 th m bo tin
cy l bao nhiu?
d. Lp phng trnh tng quan tuyn tnh ca X theo Y. Bit Y = 145kg / mm 2 d on
X.

BI GII
1.
a. p(A): xc sut mt kin c chp nhn
X 1 :s qun xp ng s trn 3 qun, X 1 B(3;0,8)
X 2 :s o xp ng s trn 3 o, X 2 B (3;0, 7)
Page 21

p ( A) =
p[ X 1 =
0, X 2 =
0 + p][ X 1 =
1, X 2 =
1] + p[ X 1 =
2, X 2 =
2 + p][ X 1 =
3, X 2 =
3]
= C30 0,80.0, 23.C30 0, 7 0.0,33
+C31 0,81.0, 22.C31 0, 71.0,32
+C32 0,82.0, 21.C32 0, 7 2.0,31
+C33 0,83.0, 20.C33 0, 73.0,30 =0,36332

X: s kin c chp nhn trong 100 kin, X B(100;0,36332) N (36,332; 23,132)

1
k np
)
(
npq
npq
1
40 36,332
1
0, 2898
=
(
=
)
=
(0, 76) = 0, 062
4,81
4, 81
4,81
4, 81
p[=
X 40]
=

b. Gi n l s kin phi kim tra.

M: t nht mt kin c chp nhn.
n

P( M ) = 1 P( A) = 1 0, 63668n 0,9 .
i =1

0, 63668n 0,1 n log 0,63668 0,1 =

5,1 n 6
Vy phi kim tra t nht 6 kin.
2.
a. H 0 : = 120
H1 : 120
=
n 134,
=
y 142, 01,
=
s y 10, 46

Ttn =

( y 0 ) n
sy

Page 22

(142, 01 120) 134

= 24,358
10, 46

=
Ttn

t(0,01) = 2,58
| Ttn |> t(0,01) : bc b H 0 , sn xut ch tiu Y vt tiu chun cho php.

b. nA = 27, x A = 18,98, s A = 2,3266 ,

=1 =1 0,99 =0, 01
t(0,01;26) = 2, 779

xA t

sA
s
xA + t A
nA
nA

18,98 2, 779.

2,3266
2,3266
.
18,98 + 2, 779.
27
27

Vy 17, 74% 20, 22%

27
= 0, 2 p A 20%
134

=
fA

c.
=
n 134,
=
y 142, 0149,
=
s y 10, 4615 , = 0, 6
ts y
ny
1

t
= =

. n 0, 6. 134
=
= 0, 66 .
sy
10, 4615

=
(0, 66) =
0, 7454 = (1 0, 7454)2 = 0,5092

tin cy =1 =0, 4908 =49, 08%

d.

xx
y y
= rxy
x=
37, 2088 + 0,3369 y .
sx
sy
x145 =
37, 2088 + 0,3369.145 =
11, 641 (%) .
Page 23

 S 8
1. Sn phm c ng thnh hp. Mi hp c 10 sn phm trong c 7 sn phm loi A.
Ngi mua hng quy nh cch kim tra nh sau: T hp ly ngu nhin 3 sn phm, nu
c 3 sn phm loi A th nhn hp , ngc li th loi. Gi s kim tra 100 hp.
a. Tnh xc sut c 25 hp c nhn.
b. Tnh xc sut khng qu 30 hp c nhn.
c. Phi kim tra t nht bao nhiu hp xc sut c t nht 1 hp c nhn 95% ?
2. Tin hnh kho st s go bn hng ngy ti mt ca hng, ta c
xi (kg)

110-125

125-140

140-155

155-170

170-185

185-200

200-215

215-230

ni

12

25

30

20

13

a. Gi s ch ca hng cho rng trung bnh mi ngy bn khng qu 140kg th tt hn

l ngh bn. T s liu iu tra, ca hng quyt nh th no vi mc ngha 0,01?
b. Nhng ngy bn 200kg l nhng ngy cao im. c lng s tin bn c
trung bnh trong ngy vi tin cy 99%, bit gi go l 5000/kg.
c. c lng t l ngy cao im .
d. c lng t l ngy cao im vi chnh xc 5% th m bo tin cy bao
nhiu?

BI GII
1.
a. A: bin c 1 hp c nhn.
p (=
A)

C73
= 0, 29
C103

X: s hp c nhn trong 100 hp. X B(100;0, 29) N (29; 20,59)

1
k np
)
(
npq
npq
1
25 29
1
0, 2709
=
)
=
= 0, 0597
(
(0,88)
20,59
20,59
20,59
20,59

=
p[=
X 25]

Page 24

b.

p[0 X 30] = (

30 29
0 29
) (
) = (0, 22) (6,39)
20,59
20,59

= (6,39) + (0, 22) 1 = 0,5871

c. n: s hp phi kim tra.

p = 1 0, 71n .

1 0, 71n 0,95 0, 71n 0, 05 n log 0,71 0, 05 =

8, 7 .
Vy phi kim tra t nht 9 hp.
2.
a. H 0 : = 140
H1 : 140
=
n 115,
=
x 174,11,
=
sx 23,8466
Ttn =

=
Ttn

( x 0 ) n
sx

(174,11 140) 115

= 15,34
23,8466

t(0,01) = 2,58
| Ttn |> t(0,01;114) : bc b H 0 , trung bnh mi ngy ca hng bn hn 140kg go.

b. ncd=
= 17, xcd 211,
=
03, scd 6,5586

=1 =1 0,99 =0, 01
t(0,01;16) = 2,921

Page 25

xcd t

scd
s
6,5586
6,5586
xcd + t cd 211, 03 2,921.
211, 03 + 2,921.
ncd
ncd
17
17

Vy 206,38kg 215, 68kg .

S tin thu c trong ngy cao im t 515 950 n 539 200 .
17
= 0,1478 . pcd 14, 78%
115
d. =
f cd 0,1478,
=
n 115,
=
0, 05

c. =
f cd

f cd (1 f cd )
115
= u 0, 05
=
= 1,51 .
n
0,1478.0,8522

=
(u ) =
(1,51) =
0,9345 = 2(1 0,9345) = 0,13

tin cy: =1 =0,87 =87% .

Page 26

 S 9
1. Mt my tnh gm 1000 linh kin A, 800 linh kin B, 2000 linh kin C. Xc sut hng
ca 3 loi linh kin ln lt l 0,001; 0,005 v 0,002. My tnh ngng hot ng khi s
linh kin hng nhiu hn 1. Cc linh kin hng c lp vi nhau.
a. Tm xc sut c hn 1 linh kin loi A hng.
b. Tm xc sut my tnh ngng hot ng.
c. Gi s c 1 linh kin hng. Tm xc sut my ngng hot ng trong hai trng
hp:
c.1. mt thi im bt k, s linh kin hng ti a l 1.
c.2. S linh kin hng khng hn ch thi im bt k.
2.

Quan st bin ng gi 2 loi hng A v B trong mt tun l, ta c

Gi ca A
(ngn ng)
Gi ca A
(ngn ng)

52

54

48

50

56

55

51

12

15

10

12

18

18

12

a. Tm c lng khong cho gi tr tht ca A vi tin cy 95%.

b. C kin cho rng gi tr tht ca A l 51 ngn ng. Bn c nhn xt g vi mc
ngha 5%?
c. Gi s gi ca 2 loi hng A v B c tng quan tuyn tnh. Hy c lng gi trung
bnh ca A ti thi im gi ca B l 12 ngn ng.

BI GII
1.
a.

X a : s linh kin A hng trong 1000 linh kin. X a B (1000;0, 001) p ( =np =1)
p[ X a > 1] =
1 p[ X a =
0] p[ X a =
1]
e 1.10 e 1.11
1
0, 264
=

=
0!
1!

b. X b : s linh kin B hng trong 800 linh kin. X b B(800;0, 005) p( =np =4)
Page 27

p[ X b > 1] =
1 p[ X b =
0] p[ X b =
1]
e 4 .40 e 4 .41
1
1 5e 4 = 0,908
=

=
0!
1!
X c : s linh kin C hng trong 2000 linh kin. X c B(2000;0, 002) p ( =np =4)
p[ X c > 1] =
1 p[ X c =
0] p[ X c =
1]
e 4 .40 e 4 .41
1
1 5e 4 = 0,908
=

=
0!
1!
H: bin c my tnh ngng hot ng .
p( H ) =
1 ( p[ X a =
0, X b =
0, X c =
0] + p(1, 0, 0) + p(0,1, 0) + p(0, 0,1))
=
1 (e 1e 4 e 4 + e 1e 4 e 4 + e 1e 4 4e 4 + e 1e 4 e 4 4)
=
1

10
=
0,9988
e9

c. H1 : bin c my tnh ngng hot ng trong trng hp I.

p ( H1 ) ==
p[ X a 1, X b ==
0, X c 0] + p(0,1, 0) + p(0, 0,1))
=e 1e 4 e 4 + e 1e 4 4e 4 + e 1e 4 e 4 4

9
= 0, 001
e9

H 2 : bin c my tnh ngng hot ng trong trng hp II.

p( H 2 ) =
1 p[ X a =
0, X b =
0, X c =
0]
= 1 e 1e 4 e 4

=
1

1
=0,9999
e9

2.
Page 28

a. =
n = 7, xa 52,
=
286, sa 2, 87

=1 =1 0,95 =0, 05
t(0,05;6) = 2, 447

xa t

sa
s
2,87
2,87
xa + t a 52, 286 2, 447.
52, 286 + 2, 447.
n
n
7
7

Vy 49, 631 54,940 .

Gi tr tht ca A trong khong t 49 631 n 54 940 .
b. H 0 : = 51
H1 : 51
=
n 7,=
x 52, 286,
=
s 2,87

Ttn =

=
Ttn

( x 0 ) n
s

(52, 286 51) 7

= 1,19
2,87

t(0,05;6) = 2, 447
| Ttn |< t(0,05;6) : chp nhn H 0 , gi tr tht ca A l 51 000 .

c.

xa xa
x x
= rab b b
sa
sb

=
xa 40,380 + 0,859 xb
xa (12) =
40,380 + 0,859.12 =
50, 688 (ngn ng) .

Page 29

 S 10

1.

Hng sn xut xong c ng kin, mi kin 10 sn phm. Kin loi I c 5 sn phm

loi A. Kin loi II c 3 sn phm loi A.
xem mt kin l loi I hay loi II, ngi ta quy nh cch kim tra: ly ngu nhin t
kin ra 3 sn phm v nu c qu 1 sn phm loi A th xem l kin loi I, ngc li
th xem l kin loi II.
a. Gi s kim tra 100 kin loi I. Tnh xc sut phm sai lm 48 ln.
1
2
b. Gi s trong kho cha s kin loi I, s kin loi II. Tnh xc sut phm sai lm
3
3
khi kim tra .

2. Tin hnh quan st v chy X (kg / mm 2 ) v b Y (kg / mm 2 ) ca mt loi thp ta c:

X
Y
75-95
95-115
115-135
135-155
155-175

35-45

45-55

7
6

4
13
12
8

55-65

65-75

75-85

20
15
8
1

10
5
2

3
2

a. Lp phng trnh tng quan tuyn tnh ca bn theo chy.

b. Thp c bn t 135kg / mm 2 tr ln gi l thp bn. Hy c lng chy trung
bnh ca thp bn vi tin cy 99%.
c. Gi s chy trung bnh tiu chun l 50kg / mm 2 . Cho nhn xt v tnh hnh sn
xut vi mc ngha 5%.
d. c lng t l thp bn vi tin cy 80% , chnh xc 4% v c lng
chy trung bnh vi tin cy 90%, chnh xc 0,8kg / mm 2 th cn iu tra thm
bao nhiu trng hp na?

BI GII
1.

Page 30

a.

p ( S1 ) : xc sut phm sai lm khi kim tra kin loi I

(kin loi I m cho l kin loi II)
C50 .C53 C51.C52
+ 3 = 0,5
p ( S1 ) =
C130
C10
X:s kin phm sai lm khi kim tra 100 kin loi I. X B(100;0,5) N (50; 25)

p[=
X 48]
=

b.

1
k np
1
48 50 1
0,3683
)=
(
) = (0, 4) =
= 0, 07366
(
5
5
npq
npq
25
25

p ( S 2 ) : xc sut phm sai lm khi kim tra kin loi II

(kin loi II m cho l kin loi I)
p( S2 ) =

C32 .C71 C33 .C70

+
= 0,18
C103
C130

p(I): xc sut chn kin loi I. p(II): xc sut chn kin loi II. p(S): xc sut phm
sai lm.
2
1
p ( S ) =p ( I ) p ( S1 ) + p ( II ) p ( S 2 ) = .0,5 + .0,18 =0,39
3
3

2.
a.

y y
xx
= rxy
=
y 53,33 + 1,18 x
sy
sx

b. ntb = 29, xtb = 63,10, stb = 10, 725

=1 =1 0,99 =0, 01
t(0,01;28) = 2, 763

xtb t

stb
s
10, 725
10, 725
xtb + t tb 63,10 2, 763.
63,10 + 2, 763.
ntb
ntb
29
29

Vy 57, 60kg / mm 2 68, 6kg / mm 2 .

Page 31

c. H 0 : = 50
H1 : 50
=
n 116,
=
x 56,8966,
=
sx 9,9925
Ttn =

=
Ttn

( x 0 ) n
sx

(56,8966 50) 116

= 7, 433
9,9925

t(0,05) = 1,96
| Ttn |> t(0,05) : bc b H 0 , chy ln hn tiu chun cho php.

d. t

f (1 f )
t
1 n1 ( ) 2 . f (1 f )
n1
1

t(0,2) = 1, 28 , 1 = 0, 04 , =
f

n1 (

29
= 0, 25
116

1, 28 2
) .0, 25.0, 75 =
192
0, 04

t.sx
t.s
2 . n2 ( x ) 2
2
n2

= 0,1 t0,1 = 1, 65 , 2 = 0,8 , sx = 9,9925

1, 65.9,9925 2
425
n2 (
) = 424, 8 . n2 425 max(n1 , n2 ) =
0,8
Cn thm t nht 425-116=309 quan st na .
Thng nh v thy, bn, v mt thi mi ng qun ging ng.
suphamle2341@gmail.com

Page 32