TRNG CAO NG CNG NGH THNG TIN TPHCM

KHOA I CNG
B MN TON

BI TP

XC SUT V THNG K TON

Ngi bin son: THS. DNG TH XUN AN

THS. NGUYN TH THU THY

LU HNH NI B
NM 2013

LI NI U

Nhm gip sinh vin Trng Cao ng Cng Ngh Thng Tin TP. HCM
hc tp mn XC SUT THNG K t kt qu cao, chng ti tin hnh
bin son quyn Bi Tp Xc Sut v Thng K Ton. Quyn bi tp ny c
bin son ph hp vi sinh vin bc Cao ng v lu hnh ni b trong phm
vi Nh trng. Ti liu c bin son da trn cng mn hc v c s
dng km theo quyn Gio Trnh Xc Sut v Thng K Ton. Ni dung gm
hai phn:
Phn Xc sut gm 2 chng:
Chng 1. BIN C NGU NHIN V XC SUT
Chng 2. I LNG NGU NHIN V LUT PHN PHI XC SUT
Phn Thng k gm 3 chng:
Chng 3. MU NGU NHIN V CC C TRNG MU
Chng 4. C LNG THAM S
Chng 5. KIM NH GI THUYT THNG K
Ti liu gii quyt hu ht cc bi tp t c bn n phc tp vi li gii r
rng, d hiu. Cc bi tp c phn loi theo tng dng c th t n gin
n tng hp. M u mi dng bi tp, tc gi tm tt ni dung l thuyt
trng tm ngi c vn dng thc hnh. Phn cui mi chng l bi tp
t gii sinh vin c c hi t rn luyn.
Vi mc ch nh trn, chng ti hy vng y s l ti liu b ch cho cc
em sinh vin trong qu trnh hc tp bc Cao ng cng nh qu trnh hc
lin thng sau ny. Ti liu s c cp nht thng xuyn trong qu trnh
ging dy v hc tp. Chng ti rt mong nhn c kin gp , xy dng t
qu Thy C v cc em sinh vin ti liu ngy cng hon thin hn. Trn
trng cm n!
TP. HCM, thng 6 nm 2013
Cc tc gi

Mc lc
LI NI U

1 BIN C NGU NHIN V XC SUT

1.1

B tc v Gii tch T hp

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1.1.1

Php m . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1.1.2

Hon v . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1.1.3

Chnh hp . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1.1.4

T hp . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1.2

Biu din mi lin h gia cc bin c . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1.3

Tnh xc sut theo nh ngha c in . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

11

1.4

p dng cc cng thc tnh xc sut . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

13

1.4.1

Cng thc cng . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

13

1.4.2

Cng thc nhn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

15

1.4.3

Cng thc xc sut ton phn v cng thc Bayes . . .

19

1.4.4

Cng thc Bernoulli . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

22

1.5

Bi tp tng hp . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

24

1.6

Bi tp t gii . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

37

2 I LNG NGU NHIN V CC QUY LUT PHN

PHI XC SUT C BIT
39
2.1

Lut phn phi xc sut ca LNN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3

39

2.1.1

Bng phn phi xc sut (PPXS) . . . . . . . . . . . . .

40

2.1.2

Hm mt ca LNN lin tc . . . . . . . . . . . . .

43

2.2

Hm phn phi xc sut . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

46

2.3

Cc c trng bng s ca LNN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

51

2.4

Cc quy lut phn phi xc sut c bit . . . . . . . . . . . .

57

2.4.1

Quy lut phn phi siu bi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

57

2.4.2

Quy lut phn phi nh thc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

59

2.4.3

Quy lut phn phi Poisson . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

62

2.4.4

Quy lut phn phi chun . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

65

2.4.5

Xp x cc quy lut phn phi xc sut . . . . . . . . .

68

2.5

Bi tp tng hp . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

72

2.6

Bi tp t gii . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

98

3 MU NGU NHIN V CC C TRNG MU

101

4 C LNG THAM S

107

4.1

c lng khong cho trung bnh tng th . . . . . . . . . . . .

110

4.2

c lng khong cho t l tng th . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

116

4.3

Bi tp tng hp . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

118

5 KIM NH GI THIT THNG K

124

5.1

So snh trung bnh tng th vi mt s . . . . . . . . . . . . .

127

5.2

So snh t l tng th vi mt s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

131

5.3

Bi tp tng hp . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

132

5.4

Bi tp t gii . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

147

MT S THI THAM KHO

149

PH LC: BNG TRA THNG K

155

TI LIU THAM KHO

161
4

Chng 1

BIN C NGU NHIN

V XC SUT
1.1
1.1.1

B tc v Gii tch T hp
Php m

Giai tha: n! = 1.2.3 . . . n.

Quy c: 0! = 1.

Quy tc cng: Gi s c mt cng vic c thc hin theo 1 trong k

trng hp khc nhau.

Trng hp th 1 c n1 cch thc hin

Cng vic ny c

Trng hp th 2 c n2 cch thc hin

n = n1 + n2 + . . . + nk
=
...
...
...

cch thc hin

Trng hp th k c nk cch thc hin

Quy tc nhn: Gi s c mt cng vic c thc hin thng qua k giai

on lin tip.

Giai on 1 c n1 cch thc hin

C n = n1 .n2 . . . nk
Giai on 2 c n2 cch thc hin
=
...
...
...
cch hon thnh cng vic

Giai on k c nk cch thc hin

5

1.1.2

Hon v

Hon v trn ng thng: S cch sp xp n phn t khc nhau vo n

v tr cho l Pn = n!
Hon v trn ng trn: S cch sp xp n phn t khc nhau vo n v
tr cho trn mt ng trn l Pn1 = (n 1)!

1.1.3

Chnh hp

Cho tp A c n phn t. Mi b k phn t khc nhau (k n) rt t tp

A, c phn bit th t c gi l mt chnh hp (khng lp) chp k ca n
n!
phn t. S chnh hp chp k ca n phn t l Akn =

(n k)!
Cho tp A c n phn t. Mi b k phn t rt t tp A, c phn bit th
t trong mi phn t c th c mt n k ln, c gi l mt chnh hp
lp chp k ca n phn t. S chnh hp lp chp k ca n phn t l Bkn = nk .
Ch . S chnh hp lp chp k ca n phn t c th tnh c bng cch p
dng quy tc nhn, trong c k giai on, mi giai on c n cch.

1.1.4

T hp

Cho tp A c n phn t. Mi b k phn t khc nhau (k n) rt t tp A,

khng phn bit th t c gi l mt t hp chp k ca n phn t. S t
n!

hp chp k ca n phn t l Ckn =

k!.(n k)!
Bi 1. Vui i d m ci ca hai bn Bnh v Yn. Trc khi ra v, Vui v
4 ngi bn na cng chp hnh lu nim vi c du ch r. Hy tnh s cch
xp cc bn thnh 1 hng chp hnh sao cho:
a) C du ng cnh ch r.
b) C du khng ng cnh ch r.
c) Vui ng cnh bn phi c du.
BI GII
a) Ta xem c du v ch r l mt "b" th c P6 = 6! = 720 cch xp 5 ngi
bn cng c du ch r thnh mt hng.
ng vi mi cch xp ny, c P2 = 2! = 2 cch hon v trong ni b "b" c
du v ch r.
Vy c 6!.2! = 1440 cch xp theo yu cu.
6

b) Xp ngu nhin 7 ngi bn thnh mt hng th c P7 = 7! = 5040 cch.

Theo cu a), c 1440 cch xp 7 ngi bn ny thnh mt hng sao cho c du
v ch r ng cnh nhau.
Vy c 5040 1440 = 3600 cch xp sao cho c du khng ng cnh ch r.
c) Tng t cu a) nhng trong ni b gia Vui v c du ch c 1 cch xp.
Do , c 1.6! = 720 cch xp sao cho Vui ng cnh bn phi c du.
Bi 2. Lp hc c 45 sinh vin, trong c 43 bn l on vin. C bao nhiu
cch chn ngu nhin 5 on vin bu vo Ban cn s lp gm 1 lp trng,
1 lp ph hc tp, 1 lp ph i sng, 1 b th v 1 ph b th.
BI GII
V vic chn 5 thnh vin c phn bit v tr nn s cch chn 5 on vin
bu vo Ban cn s lp l s chnh hp (khng lp) 43 chp 5:
A543 =

43!
= 115511760 (cch)
38!

Bi 3. Xp ngu nhin 12 hnh khch ln 5 toa tu. C bao nhiu cch:

a) Xp ngu nhin 12 hnh khch ln 5 toa tu mt cch ty .
b) Xp ngu nhin 12 hnh khch ln 5 toa tu sao cho toa th nht c 3
hnh khch.
BI GII
a) S cch xp ngu nhin 12 hnh khch ln 5 toa tu mt cch ty l s
chnh hp lp 12 chp 5: B512 = 512 = 244140625 (cch).
b) Ta xem bi ton gm 2 giai on:
- Giai on 1: Xp ngu nhin 3 hnh khch (t 12 hnh khch) vo toa th
3
nht, c C12
= 220 (cch).
- Giai on 2: Xp ngu nhin 9 hnh khch vo 4 toa tu cn li mt cch
ty , c B49 = 49 = 262144 (cch).
3
Vy c C12
.B49 = 57671680 cch xp ngu nhin 12 khch ln 5 toa tu sao cho
toa th nht c 3 hnh khch.
Bi 4. Mt thng c 50 quyn sch, trong c 20 quyn sch Ting Vit v
30 quyn sch Ton. C bao nhiu cch:
a) Ly ngu nhin ra 10 quyn sch.
b) Ly ngu nhin ra 9 quyn sch trong c 5 quyn sch Ton.
c) Ly ra 8 quyn sch Ton trao cho 8 em hc sinh.

BI GII
a) S cch ly ngu nhin ra 10 quyn sch t 50 quyn sch l s t hp 50
10
chp 10: C50
= 10272278170 (cch).
4
b) C C20 cch ly ra 4 quyn sch Ting Vit.
5
C C50
cch ly ra 5 quyn sch Ton.
4
5
Vy c C20 .C30
= 690441570 cch ly ngu nhin ra 9 quyn sch trong c
5 quyn sch Ton.
8
c) C C30
cch ly ra 8 quyn sch Ton t 30 quyn sch Ton.
ng vi mi cch ny, ta c 8! cch trao 8 quyn sch cho 8 em hc sinh.
8
Vy c C30
.8! = 235989936000 cch tha yu cu.
Bi 5. Mt l hng c 10 sn phm, trong c 8 sn phm tt v 2 ph
phm. C bao nhiu cch:
a) Ly ngu nhin ra 4 sn phm.
b) Ly ra ngu nhin 4 sn phm, trong c 3 sn phm tt.
c) Ly ra ngu nhin 4 sn phm, trong c t nht 1 ph phm.
BI GII
a) S cch ly ngu nhin 4 sn phm t 10 sn phm l s t hp 10 chp 4:
4
C10
= 210 (cch).
b) Ta c th xem bi ton gm 2 giai on:
- Giai on 1: Ly 3 sn phm tt t 8 sn phm tt, c C83 = 56 (cch).
- Giai on 2: Ly 1 ph phm t 2 ph phm, c C21 = 2 (cch).
Vy c C83 .C21 = 112 cch ly ra ngu nhin 4 sn phm, trong c 3 sn
phm tt.
c) V l hng ch c 2 ph phm nn bi ton gm 2 trng hp:
- Trng hp 1: Ly c 1 ph phm (v 3 sn phm tt)
C: C21 .C83 = 112 (cch).
- Trng hp 2: Ly c 2 ph phm (v 2 sn phm tt)
C: C22 .C82 = 28 (cch).
Vy c C21 .C83 + C22 .C82 = 140 cch ly ra ngu nhin 4 sn phm, trong c
t nht 1 ph phm.

1.2

Biu din mi lin h gia cc bin c

Cho hai bin c A v B.

Tng hai bin c: Tng ca hai bin c A v B l mt bin c C nu C
xy ra A xy ra hoc B xy ra (t nht mt trong hai bin c xy ra).
K hiu: C = A + B.
8

 Tch hai bin c: Tch ca hai bin c A v B l mt bin c C nu

C xy ra A xy ra v B xy ra (ng thi (c hai) bin c xy ra).
K hiu: C = A.B.
Bin c i lp: Bin c B c gi l bin c i lp ca bin c A
nu B xy ra A khng xy ra. K hiu: B = A.
Bi 1. Ba sinh vin d thi mn Ton cao cp. t cc bin c: Ai l "Sinh
vin th i thi t"; Bi l "C i sinh vin thi t", i = 0, 3. Nu ngha ca
cc bin c sau:
a) A1 .A2 .A3

b) A1 .A3

c) A1 + A2 + A3

d) B 0

e) A2 .B1

f) A3 B2

BI GII
a) A1 .A2 .A3 : bin c c ba sinh vin thi t.
b) A1 .A3 : bin c sinh vin th nht thi t v sinh vin th ba thi hng.
c) A1 + A2 + A3 : bin c c t nht mt sinh vin thi t.
d) B 0 : bin c khng c sinh vin no khng t c ba sinh vin u t.

e) A2 .B1 : bin c sinh vin th hai thi t v c mt sinh vin thi t

ch c sinh vin th hai thi t.
f) A3 B2 : bin c sinh vin th ba thi hng v c hai sinh vin thi t ch
c sinh vin th ba thi hng.

Bi 2. Hai x th cng bn vo mt bia, mi ngi bn mt vin. Gi Ai l

bin c "x th th i bn trng bia", i = 1, 2. Hy biu din cc bin c sau
qua bin c A1 , A2 :
a) A: bin c x th th nht bn trng bia v x th th hai bn trt.
b) B: bin c bia b trng n.
c) C: bin c bia khng b trng n.
BI GII
a) A = A1 .A2

b) B = A1 + A2

c) C = A1 .A2 A1 + A2

Bi 3. Kim tra 3 sn phm. Gi Ak l bin c sn phm th k tt. Hy trnh

by cch biu din qua Ak cc bin c sau:
a) A: bin c tt c u xu.
b) B: bin c c t nht mt sn phm tt.
9

c) C: bin c c t nht mt sn phm xu.

d) D: bin c khng phi tt c sn phm u tt.
e) E: bin c c ng mt sn phm xu.
f) F : bin c c t nht hai sn phm tt.
BI GII
a) A = A1 .A2 .A3
b) B = A1 + A2 + A3
c) C = A1 + A2 + A3
d) D = A1 .A2 .A3 A1 + A2 + A3

e) E = A1 .A2 .A3 + A1 .A2 .A3 + A1 .A2 .A3

f) F = A1 .A2 .A3 + A1 .A2 .A3 + A1 .A2 .A3 + A1 .A2 .A3

Bi 4. Ba sinh vin thi mn xc sut thng k. Gi Ai l bin c sinh vin th

i thi t, i = 1, 3. Hy biu din qua Ai cc bin c sau:
a) A: bin c c ba sinh vin u thi t.
b) B: bin c c khng qu hai sinh vin thi t.
c) C: bin c c t nht mt sinh vin thi t.
d) D: bin c c mt sinh vin thi t.
e) E: bin c sinh vin th nht v sinh vin th hai thi t.
f) F : bin c ch c sinh vin th hai thi t.
g) G: bin c c t nht mt sinh vin thi hng.
BI GII
a) A = A1 .A2 .A3
b) B = A1 .A2 .A3 +A1 .A2 .A3 +A1 .A2 .A3 +A1 .A2 .A3 +A1 .A2 .A3 +A1 .A2 .A3 +
A1 .A2 .A3
c) C = A1 + A2 + A3 A1 .A2 .A3 + A1 .A2 .A3 + A1 .A2 .A3 + A1 .A2 .A3 +
A1 .A2 .A3 + A1 .A2 .A3 + A1 .A2 .A3 \ A1 .A2 .A3

d) D = A1 .A2 .A3 + A1 .A2 .A3 + A1 .A2 .A3

e) E = A1 .A2
f) F = A1 .A2 .A3

g) G = A1 + A2 + A3 A1 .A2 .A3 + A1 .A2 .A3 + A1 .A2 A3 + A1 .A2 .A3 +

A1 .A2 .A3 + A1 .A2 .A3 + A1 .A2 .A3 A1 .A2 .A3
10

Bi 5. (Sinh vin t gii) C 3 ngi cng bn vo mt mc tiu, mi ngi

bn mt pht. Gi Ai l bin c ngi th i bn trng (i = 1, 3). Hy biu
din qua Ai cc bin c sau:
a) A: bin c ch c ngi th nht bn trng.
b) B: bin c ngi th nht bn trng cn ngi th hai bn trt.
c) C: bin c c t nht mt ngi bn trng.
d) D: bin c c 3 ngi u bn trng.
e) E: bin c c t nht hai ngi bn trng.
f) F : bin c ch c 2 ngi bn trng.
g) G: bin c khng ai bn trng.
h) H: bin c khng c hn hai ngi bn trng.
i) I: bin c ngi th nht bn trng hoc ngi th hai bn trng.

1.3

Tnh xc sut theo nh ngha c in

Xt mt php th vi khng gian mu gm n bin c s cp c ng

kh nng xy ra. Gi s A l mt bin c bt k. Ta c xc sut bin
c A xy ra l:
P (A) =

S trng hp thun li cho A

m
=
n
S trng hp ng kh nng

Tnh cht:
P () = 1
P () = 0
Vi A l bin c bt k th 0 P (A) 1
Bi 1. Gieo mt con xc xc cn i v ng cht. Tnh xc sut xut hin
mt ln hn 4 chm.
BI GII
Gi A: bin c xut hin mt ln hn 4 chm.
S trng hp ng kh nng l n = 6.
S trng hp thun li cho A l m = 2.
m
1
Do , P (A) =
=
n
3
11

Bi 2. Mt l hng gm 50 my vi tnh, trong c 20 my do cng ty A sn

xut v 30 my do cng ty B sn xut. Mt khch hng chn ngu nhin 5
my t l hng ny. Tnh xc sut :
a) C 5 my do cng ty A sn xut.
b) C 3 my do cng ty B sn xut.
BI GII
5
L hng c 50 my vi tnh, chn ngu nhin 5 my th c n = C50
cch.
a) Gi A: bin c chn c 5 my do cng ty A sn xut. Ta tnh P (A).
5
S trng hp thun li cho A: m = C20
.
5
C
m
= 20
Vy P (A) =
5 0, 0073.
n
C50
b) Gi B: bin c chn c 3 my do cng ty B sn xut (v 2 my do cng
ty A sn xut). Ta tnh P (B).
3
2
S trng hp thun li cho B: m = C30
.C20
.
3
2
m
C .C
Vy P (B) =
= 30 5 20 0, 3641.
n
C50
Bi 3. Mt nh phn tch th trng chng khon a ra mt danh sch c
th 5 loi c phiu. Gi s xp c bng th t tng trng ca 5 loi c
phiu ny vo nm ti v kh nng xp hng u nh nhau. Tnh xc sut
d on ng 3 loi c phiu xp u bng ny:
a) Khng k th t.
b) Xp theo th t nht, nh, ba.
BI GII
Gi A: bin c d on ng 3 loi c phiu xp u bng.
S trng hp thun li cho A l m = 1.
a) Trong trng hp khng k th t th tng s cch d on l n = C53 = 10.
m
1
Do , P (A) =
=
= 0, 1.
n
10
b) Trong trng hp c k th t nht, nh, ba th tng s cch d on l
n = A35 = 60.
1
m
=
0, 0167.
Vy P (A) =
n
60
Bi 4. T mt nhm bn gm 5 ngi: An, Bnh, Yn, Lnh, Phc. Chn ngu
nhin 3 bn t nhm ny, tnh xc sut trong c "Bnh".
BI GII
T nhm bn c 5 ngi, chn ngu nhin 3 bn th c n = C53 = 10 cch.
12

Gi B: bin c trong 3 ngi c chn c bn Bnh.

Sau khi chn Bnh th ta cn chn thm 2 bn t 4 ngi cn li, nn s trng
hp thun li cho B l m = C42 = 6.
C42
6
Vy P (B) = 3 =
= 0, 6.
C5
10
Bi 5. C 10 khch bc ngu nhin vo mt ca hng c 3 quy. Tm xc
sut c 3 ngi n quy s 1.
BI GII
Ta xem vic mi khch hng n 1 quy tnh tin l mt giai on, mi giai
on c 10 cch nn s trng hp ng kh nng l n = 310 .
Gi A: bin c c 3 ngi n quy s 1. Ta cn tnh P (A).
S trng hp thun li cho A l s cch chn ngu nhin 3 ngi t 10 ngi
xp vo quy s 1 v 7 ngi cn li s n ngu nhin hai quy 2 v 3, tc
3
l m = C10
.27 .
3
5120
C10
.27
=
0, 2601.
Vy P (A) =
310
19683
Ch . Ta c th tnh s trng hp ng kh nng bng cch p dng chnh
hp lp: B310 = 310 .

1.4
1.4.1

p dng cc cng thc tnh xc sut

Cng thc cng

Hai bin c xung khc: Hai bin c A v B c gi l xung khc vi

nhau trong mt php th nu A v B khng cng xy ra.
H bin c xung khc tng i: H bin c {A1 , A2 , . . . , An } c gi l
xung khc tng i nu hai bin c bt k trong h xung khc vi nhau.
Cng thc cng:
Cho A v B l hai bin c bt k, ta c: P (A + B) = P (A) + P (B) P (AB).
Nu A v B l hai bin c xung khc th: P (A + B) = P (A) + P (B).
Cng thc trn c th m rng cho n bin c, chng hn:
Cho ba bin c bt k A, B, C, ta c:
P (A + B + C) = P (A) + P (B) + P (C) P (AB) P (BC) P (CA) + P (ABC)
13

 Cho {A, B, C} l h bin c xung khc tng i th:

P (A + B + C) = P (A) + P (B) + P (C)
Cho A l mt bin c bt k, ta c: P (A) = 1 P (A).
Bi 1. C 5 con nga nh s t 1 n 5 tham gia mt cuc ua. Gi s kh
nng chy nhanh thng trn ca 5 con nga l nh nhau. Tnh xc sut
con nga s 3 t nht l v nh.
BI GII
Gi A: bin c con nga s 3 t nht l v nh.
Ai : bin c con nga s 3 v th i, i = 1, 5.
Ta c: A = A1 + A2 v {A1 , A2 } xung khc, nn
P (A) = P (A1 ) + P (A2 ) =

1 1
+ = 0, 4
5 5

Bi 2. Rt ngu nhin ng thi 3 l bi t b bi 52 l. Tnh xc sut rt

c t nht 1 l bi t.
BI GII
Gi A: bin c rt c t nht 1 l bi t.
= A: bin c khng rt c l bi t no.
4324
C3
=
0, 7826.
Ta c: P (A) = 48
3
C52
5525
1201
4324
Suy ra, P (A) = 1 P (A) = 1
=
0, 2174.
5525
5525
Bi 3. Hai ngi cng bn vo mt tm bia mt cch c lp, mi ngi bn
mt pht. Xc sut ngi th nht v th hai bn trng bia ln lt l 0,6
v 0,8. Tnh xc sut bia b trng n.
BI GII
Gi A: bin c bia b trng n ( c t nht mt ngi bn trng bia).
Ai : bin c ngi th i bn trng bia, i = 1, 2.
Cch 1: Ta c A = A1 + A2 = P (A) = P (A1 ) + P (A2 ) P (A1 .A2 )
V {A1 , A2 } c lp nn P (A) = P (A1 ) + P (A2 ) P (A1 ).P (A2 )
= P (A) = 0, 6 + 0, 8 0, 6.0, 8 = 0, 92.
Cch 2: Ta c A: bin c bia khng trng n.
= A = A1 .A2 = P (A) = P (A1 ).P (A2 ) (v {A1 , A2 } c lp)
14

= P (A) = 0, 4.0, 2 = 0, 08
Vy P (A) = 1 P (A) = 1 0, 08 = 0, 92.
Bi 4. Mt l hng c 50 sn phm, trong c 4 ph phm. Mt khch hng
kim tra bng cch ly ngu nhin 10 sn phm t l hng ny. Nu trong 10
sn phm ly ra c khng qu 1 ph phm th ngi ny s mua l hng. Tnh
xc sut l hng c mua.
BI GII
Gi A: bin c l hng c mua.
Ai : bin c trong 10 sn phm ly ra c i ph phm, i = 0, 10.
Ta c: A = A0 + A1 v {A0 , A1 } xung khc
9
10
C41 .C46
2717
C40 .C46
+
=
= P (A) = P (A0 ) + P (A1 ) =
0, 82584.
10
10
C50
C50
3290
Bi 5. Kho st v mc quan tm ca ngi dn trong mt khu ph i vi
3 t bo A, B, C, ngi ta c s liu sau: c 20% ngi dn xem bo A; 15%
ngi dn xem bo B; 10% ngi dn xem bo C; 5% xem A v B; 4% xem A
v C; 3% xem B v C; 2% xem c A, B v C. Chn ngu nhin mt ngi dn
trong khu ph, tnh xc sut ngi ny khng xem bo no trong s 3 t
bo A, B, C ni trn.
BI GII
Gi D: bin c ngi ny khng xem bo no trong 3 t bo A, B v C.
= D: bin c ngi ny xem t nht mt trong 3 t bo A, B, C.
Gi A, B, C ln lt l cc bin c ngi ny xem bo A, B, C.
Ta c: D = A + B + C nn
P (D)

=
=

P (A) + P (B) + P (C) P (AB) P (AC) P (BC) + P (ABC)

0, 2 + 0, 15 + 0, 1 0, 05 0, 04 0, 03 + 0, 02 = 0, 35

Vy P (D) = 1 P (D) = 1 0, 35 = 0, 65.

1.4.2

Cng thc nhn

Hai bin c c lp: Hai bin c A v B c gi l c lp vi nhau

trong mt php th nu A c xy ra hay khng cng khng nh hng n kh
nng xy ra ca B v ngc li.
H bin c c lp tng i: H bin c {A1 , A2 , . . . , An } c gi l
c lp tng i nu hai bin c bt k trong h c lp vi nhau.
15

 H bin c c lp ton phn: H bin c {A1 , A2 , . . . , An } c gi

l c lp ton phn nu mi bin c trong h c lp vi mt tch bt k
cc bin c cn li trong h.
Cng thc xc sut c iu kin: Cho hai bin c A v B. Xc sut
bin c A xy ra vi iu kin bin c B xy ra c gi l cng thc xc
sut c iu kin: P (A|B)
P (AB)
Ngoi ra, xc sut c iu kin c th tnh theo cng thc: P (A|B) =
P (B)
Cng thc nhn:
Nu A v B l hai bin c bt k th: P (AB) = P (A).P (B|A) = P (B).P (A|B)
Nu A v B l hai bin c c lp th: P (AB) = P (A).P (B)
Cng thc trn c th m rng cho n bin c, chng hn:
Cho A, B, C l ba bin c bt k, ta c: P (ABC) = P (A).P (B|A).P (C|AB)
Nu {A, B, C} l h c lp ton phn th: P (ABC) = P (A).P (B).P (C)
Bi 1. Cho A, B l hai bin c c lp v P (A) = 0, 3 v P (B) = 0, 7. Tnh
cc xc sut:
a) P (AB)
b) P (A|B)
c) P (B|A)
BI GII
V A, B l hai bin c c lp nn:
a) P (A.B) = P (A).P (B) = 0, 3.0, 7 = 0, 21
b) P (A|B) = P (A) = 0, 3
c) P (B|A) = P (B) = 0, 7
Bi 2. Hai x th cng bn vo mt tm bia mt cch c lp, mi ngi bn
mt pht. Xc sut x th th nht v th hai bn trng bia ln lt l 0,7
v 0,8. Tnh xc sut :
a) C hai x th bn trng bia.
b) Ch c x th th nht bn trng bia.
BI GII
Gi Ai : bin c x th th i bn trng bia, i = 1, 2.
Ta c: {A1 , A2 } c lp.
a) Gi A: bin c c hai x th bn trng bia.
V A = A1 .A2 nn P (A) = P (A1 ).P (A2 ) = 0, 7.0, 8 = 0, 56.
b) Gi B: bin c ch c x th th nht bn trng bia.
V A = A1 .A2 nn P (A) = P (A1 ).P (A2 ) = 0, 7.0, 2 = 0, 14.

16

Bi 3. C 3 hp: mi hp ng 5 vin bi, trong hp th i c i vin bi trng

(i = 1, 3). Ly ngu nhin t mi hp ra mt vin bi.
a) Tm xc sut ly c 3 vin bi trng.
b) Nu trong 3 bi ly ra c mt bi trng, tm xc sut vin bi trng
l ca hp th nht?
BI GII
Gi Ai : bin c ly c vin bi trng t hp th i, i = 1, 2, 3
Ta c: {A1 , A2 , A3 } l h c lp ton phn.
a) Gi A: bin c ly c 3 vin bi trng
= A = A1 .A2 .A3
6
1 2 3
= 0, 048.
= P (A) = P (A1 ).P (A2 ).P (A3 ) = =
5 5 5
125
b) Gi B: bin c trong 3 bi ly ra c 1 bi trng
P (A1 .B)
Ta cn tnh: P (A1 |B) =
P (B)
Ta c: B = A1 .A2 .A3 + A1 .A2 .A3 + A1 .A2 .A3 nn
P (B)

= P (A1 .A2 .A3 ) + P (A1 .A2 .A3 ) + P (A1 .A2 .A3 )

= P (A1 ).P (A2 ).P (A3 ) + P (A1 ).P (A2 ).P (A3 ) + P (A1 ).P (A2 ).P (A3 )
58
1 3 2 4 2 2 4 3 3
+ + =
=
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
125

P (A1 .A2 .A3 )

P (A1 ).P (A2 ).P (A3 )
Vy P (A1 |B) =
=
=
P (B)
P (B)

6
125
58
125

3
29

Bi 4. Mt tn hiu S c truyn t im A n im B. Tn hiu s c

nhn ti B nu c hai cng tc I v II u ng. Gi s rng kh nng cng
tc th nht v th hai ng, tng ng l 0,8 v 0,6. Cho bit hai cng tc
hot ng c lp nhau. Tnh xc sut:
a) Tn hiu c nhn ti B.
b) Cng tc th I m, bit rng ti B khng nhn c tn hiu S.
c) Cng tc th II m, bit rng ti B khng nhn c tn hiu S.
BI GII
Gi Ai : bin c cng tc th i ng, i = 1, 2.
Theo gi thit, {A1 , A2 } c lp.
a) Gi B: bin c tn hiu c nhn ti B.
= B = A1 .A2 = P (B) = P (A1 ).P (A2 ) = 0, 8.0, 6 = 0, 48.
b) Ta c: P (B) = 1 P (B) = 1 0, 48 = 0, 52.
P (A1 .B)
P (A1 )
0, 2
5
=
=
=
0, 3846
Ta cn tnh: P (A1 |B) =
0, 52
13
P (B)
P (B)
17

c) Ta cn tnh: P (A2 |B) =

P (A2 )
0, 4
P (A2 .B)
10
=
=
=
0, 7692
0, 52
13
P (B)
P (B)

Bi 5. Mt kin hng gm 20 chic tivi, trong c 16 chic t cht lng

tt v 4 chic b li. Ln lt chn ngu nhin ra 3 chic tivi t kin hng ny.
Tnh xc sut :
a) Chic tivi chn ln th 3 l tt, bit rng chic tivi chn ln th nht v
th hai l tt.
b) Chic tivi chn ln th 3 b li, bit rng chic tivi chn ln th nht l
tt v ln th hai b li.
c) Chic tivi chn ln th 3 b li, bit rng chic tivi chn ln th nht b
li v ln th hai l tt.
d) Chic tivi chn ln th 3 b li, bit rng trong hai chic tivi chn ra ln
th nht v th hai c mt chic tt v mt chic b li.
BI GII
Gi Ai : bin c chic ti vi chn ln th i l tt, i = 1, 2, 3.
Theo nh ngha xc sut c iu kin, ta c:
14
7
a) P (A3 |A1 .A2 ) =
= 0, 7778.
18
9
3
0, 1667.
b) P (A3 |A1 .A2 ) =
18
3
0, 1667.
c) P (A3 |A1 .A2 ) =
18
d) Gi A: bin c trong hai chin ti vi chn ra ln th nht v th hai c mt
P (A3 .A)
chic tt v mt chic b li. Ta cn tnh: P (A3 |A) =
P (A)
V A = A1 .A2 + A1 .A2 nn
P (A) = P (A1 ).P (A2 |A1 ) + P (A1 ).P (A2 |A1 ) =

16 4
4 16
16

=
20 19 20 19
95

Ngoi ra,
P (A3 .A)

=
=
=

P (A1 .A2 .A3 + A1 .A2 .A3 ) = P (A1 .A2 .A3 ) + P (A1 .A2 .A3 )
P (A1 ).P (A2 |A1 ).P (A3 |A1 .A2 ) + P (A1 ).P (A2 |A1 ).P (A3 |A1 .A2 )
4 16 3
16
16 4 3

=
20 19 18 20 19 18
285

Vy P (A3 |A) =

16
285
16
95

1
0, 3333.
3

18

1.4.3

Cng thc xc sut ton phn v cng thc Bayes

H bin c y v xung khc: H bin c {A1 , A2 , . . . , An } c gi

l h y v xung khc khi v ch khi ch c duy nht mt bin c trong h
xy ra, ngha l: A1 + A2 + . . . + An = v Ai .Aj = , i 6= j.
Gi s {A1 , A2 , ..., An } l h y v xung khc. Khi , vi A l mt
bin c bt k, ta c cng thc xc sut ton phn (y ):
P (A) = P (A1 )P (A|A1 ) + P (A2 )P (A|A2 ) + ... + P (An )P (A|An )
Cho bin c A bt k v {A1 , A2 , ..., An } l mt h y v xung khc. Khi
, ta c cng thc Bayes:
P (Ai ) =

P (Ai )P (A|Ai )
P (Ai )P (A|Ai )
= n
X
P (A)
P (Ak )P (A|Ak )
k=1

Bi 1. Mt m ng c s n ng bng na s n b. Xc sut n ng
b bnh tim l 0,06 v xc sut n b b bnh tim l 0,036. Chn ngu
nhin 1 ngi t m ng, tnh xc sut ngi ny b bnh tim.
BI GII
Gi A: bin c ngi c chn b bnh tim.
B: bin c ngi c chn l n b.
C: bin c ngi c chn l n ng.
Ta c {B, C} l h y v xung khc v P (B) =
p dng cng thc xc sut ton phn (CTXSTP):
P (A) = P (B).P (A|B) + P (C).P (A|C) =

2
1
; P (C) =
3
3

2
1
0, 036 + 0, 06 = 0, 044
3
3

Bi 2. C hai hp ng bi: hp I c 5 bi trng v 7 bi en; hp II c 6 bi trng

v 4 bi en. Ly ngu nhin 1 bi t hp I b sang hp II, ri t hp II ly ngu
nhin ra 1 bi. Tnh xc sut:
a) Bi ly t hp II l bi trng.
b) Bi ly t hp I sang hp II l bi trng, bit rng bi ly ra t hp II l bi
trng.
BI GII
Gi Ti : bin c bi ly t hp th i l bi trng, i = 1, 2.
19

a) Ta cn tnh P (T2 ). Ta c {T1 , T 1 } l h y v xung khc.

p dng CTXSTP:
P (T2 )

= P (T1 ).P (T2 |T1 ) + P (T 1 ).P (T2 |T 1 )

7 6
7
5 7

=
0, 5833
=
12 11 12 11
12

b) Ta cn tnh:
P (T1 ).P (T2 |T1 )
P (T1 .T2 )
=
=
P (T1 |T2 ) =
P (T2 )
P (T2 )

35
132
7
32

5
0, 4545
11

Bi 3. C 3 hp: mi hp ng 5 vin bi, trong hp th i c i vin bi trng

(i = 1, 3). Chn ngu nhin mt hp, ri t hp chn ly ngu nhin ng
thi 3 vin bi.
a) Tm xc sut ly c 3 vin bi trng.
b) Nu trong 3 bi ly ra c mt bi trng, tm xc sut vin bi trng
l ca hp th nht.
BI GII
a) Gi A l bin c ly c 3 bi trng. Ta cn tnh: P (A)
Gi Hi : bin c chn c hp th i, i = 1, 2, 3.
1
Ta c P (T1 ) = P (T2 ) = P (T3 ) = v {T1 , T2 , T3 } l h y v xung khc.
3
p dng CTXSTP:
P (A)

= P (H1 ).P (A|H1 ) + P (H2 ).P (A|H2 ) + P (H3 )P (A|H3 )

1
1
1
1 C3
=
0 + 0 + 33 =
3
3
3 C5
30

b) Gi B l bin c trong 3 bi ly ra c 1 bi trng.

P (H1 .B)
Ta cn tnh: P (H1 |B) =
P (B)
tnh P (B), ta p dng CTXSTP:
P (B)

=
=

P (H1 ).P (B|H1 ) + P (H2 ).P (B|H2 ) + P (H3 )P (B|H3 )

1 C21 .C32
1 C31 .C22
1
1 C11 .C42
+
+
= = 0, 5

3
3
3
3
C5
3
C5
3
C5
2

P (H1 .B)
P (H1 ).P (B|H1 )
Do , P (H1 |B) =
=
=
P (B)
P (B)
20

1
3

C11 .C42
C53

0, 5

2
= 0, 4.
5

Bi 4. iu tra v gii tnh ca sinh vin mt trng hc, ngi ta thy rng
c 65% nam v 35% n. Trong , t l hc sinh n v nam thch chi game
tng ng l 20% v 25%. Chn ngu nhin mt sinh vin ca trng ny, tnh
xc sut:
a) Sinh vin c chn thch chi game.
b) Sinh vin c chn l nam, bit rng sinh vin ny thch chi game.
BI GII
a) Gi A l bin c chn c sinh vin thch chi game. Ta tnh P (A).
A1 : bin c chn c sinh vin n.
A2 : bin c chn c sinh vin nam.
Ta c P (A1 ) = 35%; P (A2 ) = 65% v {A1 , A2 } l h y v xung khc.
p dng CTXSTP:
P (A) = P (A1 ).P (A|A1 ) + P (A2 ).P (A|A2 ) = 35%.20% + 65%.25% = 0, 2325
b) Ta cn tnh: P (A2 |A) =

P (A2 .A)
P (A2 ).P (A|A2 )
65%.25%
=
=
= 0, 6989.
P (A)
P (A)
0, 2325

Bi 5. Mt nh my c hai phn xng. Sn lng ca phn xng I gp 3

ln xn lng ca phn xng II. T l ph phm ca phn xng I v II ln
lt l 3% v 5%. Chn ngu nhin 1 sn phm ca nh my, tnh xc sut:
a) Chn c sn phm tt do phn xng I sn xut.
b) Chn c 1 ph phm.
c) Gi s chn c sn phm tt, tnh xc sut sn phm ny do phn
xng I sn xut.
BI GII
Gi A l bin c chn c sn phm tt.
Ai : bin c chn c sn phm do phn xng th i sn xut, i = 1, 2.
3
1
= P (A1 ) = ; P (A2 ) =
4
4
3
a) Ta cn tnh: P (A.A1 ) = P (A1 ).P (A|A1 ) = (1 3%) = 0, 7275
4
b) Ta cn tnh: P (A). Ta c: {A1 , A2 } l h y v xung khc.
p dng CTXSTP:
P (A) = P (A1 ).P (A|A1 ) + P (A2 ).P (A|A2 ) =
c) Ta cn tnh: P (A1 |A) =

1
3
3% + 5% = 0, 035
4
4

P (A1 .A)
P (A1 ).P (A|A1 )
=
P (A)
P (A)
21

Ta tnh P (A) bng cch p dng CTXSTP:

P (A) = P (A1 ).P (A|A1 ) + P (A2 ).P (A|A2 ) =

1
3
97% + 95% = 0, 965
4
4

3
4

97%
291
=
0, 7539
0, 965
396
Ch . Ta c th tnh P (A) bng cch p dng cng thc

Khi , P (A1 |A) =

P (A) = 1 P (A) = 1 0, 035 = 0, 965

1.4.4

Cng thc Bernoulli

Php th Bernoulli l php th m trong ta ch quan tm n hai bin c

A v A vi P (A) = p.
Xt lc Bernoulli gm:
n php th c lp (trong mi php th ch xy ra mt trong hai trng
hp: A xy ra hoc A khng xy ra).
Xc sut bin c A xy ra trong mi php th l P (A) = p v P (A) =
1 p = q.
Khi , xc sut trong n php th, bin c A xy ra k ln c tnh theo
cng thc Bernoulli:
P(A) = Pn (k) = Ckn .pk .qnk ,

k = 0, n

Bi 1. Gieo 100 ht u tng. Xc sut ny mm ca mi ht l 0,9. Tnh

xc sut trong 100 ht:
a) C 85 ht ny mm.
b) C t nht 99 ht ny mm.
BI GII
Ta c lc Bernoulli vi:
- S php th: n = 100
- Xc sut 1 ht u ny mm: p = 0, 9.
Ta c cng thc Bernoulli:
k
P100 (k) = C100
(0, 9)k (0, 1)100k , (k = 0, 100)

a) Gi A l bin c c 85 ht ny mm =

k = 85

85
P (A) = P100 (85) = C100
(0, 9)85 (0, 1)15 = 0, 0327

b) Gi B l bin c c t nht 99 ht ny mm. Ta cn tnh P (B).

Gi C l bin c c 99 ht ny mm v D l bin c c 100 ht ny mm
22

Ta c B = C + D (C, D xung khc)

= P (B) = P (C) + P (D) = P100 (99) + P100 (100)
99
100
= C100
(0, 9)99 (0, 1)1 + C100
(0, 9)100 (0, 1)0 = 0, 0003
Bi 2. Mt l hng cha rt nhiu sn phm vi t l ph phm l 0,02. Ly
ngu nhin 150 sn phm kim tra. Tnh xc sut ly c t nht 1 ph
phm.
BI GII
Theo gi thit, ta c lc Bernoulli vi:
- S php th: n = 150
- Xc sut ly c 1 ph phm: p = 0, 02.
Cng thc Bernoulli:
k
P150 (k) = C150
(0, 02)k (0, 98)150k , (k = 0, 150)

Gi A l bin c ly c t nht mt ph phm

B: bin c khng ly c ph phm no
Ta c: A = B = P (A) = 1 P (B)
0
Theo cng thc Bernoulli: P (B) = P150 (0) = C150
(0, 02)0 (0, 98)150 = 0, 0483
Vy xc sut ly c t nht mt ph phm:
0
P (A) = 1 P (B) = 1 C150
(0, 02)0 (0, 98)150 = 0, 9517

Bi 3. Mt x th bn 10 vin n vo 1 tm bia mt cch c lp. Xc sut

bn trng bia ca mi vin n bng nhau v bng 0,6. Tm xc sut c t 5
n 7 vin n trng ch.
BI GII
Theo gi thit, ta c lc Bernoulli vi:
- S php th: n = 10
- Xc sut 1 vin n bn trng ch: p = 0, 6.
Khi , cng thc Bernoulli:
k
P10 (k) = C10
(0, 6)k (0, 4)10k , (k = 0, 10)

Gi A: bin c c t 5 n 7 vin n trng ch. Ta cn tnh P (A)

Gi Ai : bin c c i vin n bn trng ch, i = 0, 10
Ta c A = A5 + A6 + A7 ({A5 , A6 , A7 } xung khc)
= P (A) = P (A5 ) + P (A6 ) + P (A7 ) = P10 (5) + P10 (6) + P10 (7)
5
6
7
= C10
(0, 6)5 (0, 4)5 + C10
(0, 6)6 (0, 4)4 + C10
(0, 6)7 (0, 4)3 = 0, 6665
Bi 4. Ngn hng thi mn L c 500 cu hi. Thy Bnh chn ngu nhin
20 cu hi lm thi cui k. Mi cu hi c 4 phng n tr li trong
23

ch c 1 phng n ng. Mi cu tr li ng t 0,5 im. Bn n lm bi

thi bng cch chn h ha mt phng n cho mi cu hi. Tnh xc sut
bn n t 8 im.
BI GII
Gi A: bin c bn n t 8 im bn n tr li ng 16 cu hi.
Trc ht ta nhn xt rng: 500 cu hi trong ngn hng thi khng nh
hng n kt qu bi ton.
Theo bi, ta c lc Bernoulli vi:
- S php th: n = 20
- Xc sut bn n tr li ng 1 cu hi: p = 0, 25.
k
Cng thc Bernoulli: P20 (k) = C20
(0, 25)k (0, 75)20k vi k = 0, 20
16
Cho ta P (A) = P20 (16) = C20
(0, 25)16 (0, 75)4 = 0, 357.106
Bi 5. Trong mt hp c 9 vin bi, trong c 3 bi cn li l bi xanh. Ln
lt ly ngu nhin c hon li 3 bi. Tm xc sut :
a) Ly c 2 bi xanh.
b) Ly c t nht 1 bi .
BI GII
Ta c lc Bernoulli vi:
- S php th: n = 3

6
2
- Xc sut ly c 1 bi xanh trong mi php th: p = =
3
 2 k  1 3k 9
Ta c cng thc Bernoulli: P3 (k) = C3k
, vi k = 0, 3.
3
3
a) Gi A: bin c ly c 2 bi xanh = k = 2.
 2  1
1
2 2
= 49 0, 4444
Vy P (A) = P3 (2) = C3 3
3
b) Gi B: bin c ly c t nht 1 bi
= B: bin c khng ly c bi no ly c 3 bi xanh.
 3  0
1
8
3 2
Tng t, ta c: P (B) = P3 (3) = C3 3
= 27
0, 2963
3
 2 3  1 0
= 0, 7037
Vy P (B) = 1 P (B) = 1 C33
3
3

1.5

Bi tp tng hp

Bi 1. Cho hai bin c A, B v P (A) = 0, 2; P (B) = 0, 5; P (A + B) = 0, 6.

Tnh P (AB).
24

BI GII
Ta c cng thc cng xc sut: P (A + B) = P (A) + P (B) P (AB)
= P (AB) = P (A) + P (B) P (AB) = 0, 2 + 0, 5 0, 6 = 0, 1.
Bi 2. Cho ba bin c A, B, C v P (A) = 0, 4; P (B) = 0, 2; P (C) = 0, 3. Tnh
xc sut P (A + B + C), bit rng A, B, C c lp nhau.
BI GII
p dng cng thc cng xc sut:
P (A + B + C) = P (A) + P (B) + P (C) P (AB) P (AC) P (CA) + P (ABC)
Theo gi thit, A, B, C c lp nhau nn:
P (AB) = P (A).P (B) = 0, 4.0, 2 = 0, 08
P (BC) = P (B).P (C) = 0, 2.0, 3 = 0, 06
P (CA) = P (C).P (A) = 0, 3.0, 4 = 0, 28
P (ABC) = P (A).P (B).P (C) = 0, 4.0, 2.0, 3 = 0, 024
Do , P (A + B + C) = 0, 4 + 0, 2 + 0, 3 0, 08 0, 06 0, 12 + 0, 024 = 0, 664.
Bi 3. Rt ngu nhin ng thi 2 l bi t b bi 52 l. Tnh xc sut:
a) Rt c 2 l bi C.
b) Rt c 2 l bi R mu en.
c) Rt c 2 l bi C, bit rng hai l ny mu .
BI GII
2
Rt ngu nhin ng thi 2 l bi t b bi 52 l, c n = C52
= 1326 cch.
2
a) Gi A: bin c rt c 2 l bi C = C m = C13 = 78 cch.
2
m
1
C13
Suy ra, P (A) =
= 2 =
0, 05882.
n
C52
17
b) Gi B: bin c rt c 2 l bi R mu en th P (B) = 0 v khng c l
bi R no mu en.
25
C2
=
0, 2451.
c) Gi C: bin c rt c 2 l bi mu th P (C) = 26
2
C52
102
P (AC)
6
P (A)
C2
Ta cn tnh: P (A|C) =
=
=
= 13
= 0, 24.
2
P (C)
P (C)
C26
25
Bi 4. Trong mt xng c 3 my lm vic. Trong mt ca, my th nht c
th cn sa cha vi xc sut 0,12; my th hai vi xc sut 0,15 v my th
ba vi xc sut 0,18. Tm xc sut sao cho trong mt ca lm vic c t nht
mt my khng cn sa cha.
25

BI GII
Gi A: bin c c t nht mt my khng cn sa cha. Ta cn tnh: P (A).
Gi B: bin c c 3 my cn sa cha th A = B = P (A) = 1 P (B)
Gi Ai : bin c my th i cn sa cha, i = 1, 3, th {A1 , A2 , A3 } l h c lp
Ta c: B = A1 .A2 .A3
= P (B) = P (A1 ).P (A2 ).P (A3 ) = 0, 12.0, 15.0, 18 = 0, 00324
Vy P (A) = 1 P (B) = 1 0, 00324 = 0, 99676.
Bi 5. Cho hai hp: hp th nht cha 30 bi trng, 7 bi ; hp th hai cha
10 bi trng, 6 bi . Ly ngu nhin t mi hp ra 1 bi. Tnh xc sut hai
bi ly ra cng mu.
BI GII
Gi A: bin c hai bi ly ra cng mu. Ta cn tnh: P (A).
Gi Ai : bin c bi ly ra t hp th i l bi , i = 1, 2.
Ta c: A = A1 .A2 + A1 .A2 (V {A1 , A2 } l h c lp)
= P (A) = P (A1 .A2 ) + P (A1 .A2 ) = P (A1 ).P (A2 ) + P (A1 ).P (A2 )
7 6
30 10
171
Do vy, P (A) =

=
0, 5777.
37 16 37 16
296
Bi 6. Ba ngi chi bng r, mi ngi nm mt qu. Xc sut nm trng r
ca mi ngi ln lt l 0,5; 0,6; 0,7. Tnh xc sut :
a) C 3 ngi u nm trng r.
b) C t nht mt ngi nm trng r.
c) C t nht mt ngi nm khng trng r.
d) C ng 2 ngi nm trng r.
e) Ngi th 3 nm khng trng r, bit rng c hai ngi nm trng r.
BI GII
Gi Ai : bin c ngi th i nm trng r, i = 1, 2, 3.
Ta c: {A1 , A2 , A3 } c lp.
a) Gi A: bin c c 3 ngi u nm trng r
Ta c: A = A1 .A2 .A3
= P (A) = P (A1 ).P (A2 ).P (A3 ) = 0, 5.0, 6.0, 7 = 0, 21.
b) Gi B: bin c c t nht mt ngi nm trng r
C: bin c c 3 ngi u nm khng trng r
Ta c: B = C = P (B) = 1 P (C).
Li c: C = A1 .A2 .A3 = P (C) = P (A1 ).P (A2 ).P (A3 ) = 0, 5.0, 4.0, 3 = 0, 06
Vy P (B) = 1 P (C) = 1 0, 06 = 0, 94.

26

c) Gi D: bin c c t nht mt ngi nm khng trng r th D = A

= P (D) = 1 P (A) = 1 0, 21 = 0, 79.
d) Gi E: bin c c ng 2 ngi nm trng r.
Ta c: E = A1 .A2 .A3 + A1 .A2 .A3 + A1 .A2 .A3 nn
P (E)

=
=
=

P (A1 .A2 .A3 ) + P (A1 .A2 .A3 ) + P (A1 .A2 .A3 )

P (A1 ).P (A2 ).P (A3 ) + P (A1 ).P (A2 ).P (A3 ) + P (A1 ).P (A2 ).P (A3 )
0, 5.0, 6.0, 3 + 0, 5.0, 4.0, 7 + 0, 5.0, 6.0, 7 = 0, 44

P (A1 .A2 .A3 )

P (A1 ).P (A2 ).P (A3 )
P (A3 .E)
=
=
P (E)
P (E)
P (E)
0, 5.0, 6.0, 3
9
Cho ta, P (A3 |E) =
=
0, 2045.
0, 44
44
e) Ta cn tnh: P (A3 |E) =

Bi 7. Hai bn Bnh v Yn cng d thi mn xc sut thng k mt cch c

lp. Kh nng Yn thi t mn ny l 0,6 v xc sut c t nht mt
trong hai bn thi t l 0,9. Tnh xc sut :
a) Bn Bnh thi t.
b) C hai bn u thi t.
c) C t nht mt bn thi hng.
d) Bn Yn thi t, bit rng ch c mt trong hai bn thi t.
BI GII
Gi B: bin c Bnh thi t mn xc sut thng k
C: bin c Yn thi t mn xc sut thng k
Theo gi thit: P (C) = 0, 6 v P (B + C) = 0, 9 v {B, C} l h c lp.
a) Ta cn tnh: P (B). p dng cng thc cng v cng thc nhn xc sut:
P (B + C) = P (B) + P (C) P (BC) = P (B) + P (C) P (B).P (C)

P (B + C) P (C)
0, 9 0, 6
=
= 0, 75.
1 P (C)
1 0, 6
b) Gi A: bin c c hai bn u thi t mn xc sut thng k
Ta c: A = B.C = P (A) = P (B).P (C) = 0, 6.0, 75 = 0, 45.
c) Gi D: bin c c t nht mt bn thi hng mn xc sut thng k
V D = A nn P (D) = 1 P (A) = 1 0, 45 = 0, 55
d) Gi E: bin c ch c mt trong hai bn thi t.
P (C.E)
Ta cn tnh: P (C|E) =
P (E)
Ta i tnh P (E). Do E = B.C + B.C nn ta c:

Do , P (B) =

P (E)

= P (B.C) + P (B.C) = P (B).P (C) + P (B).P (C)

= 0, 75.0, 4 + 0, 25.0, 6 = 0, 45
27

Vy P (C|E) =

P (B).P (C)
0, 25.0, 6
1
=
= 0, 3333.
P (E)
0, 45
3

Bi 8. Nam np h s d thi vo trng i hc A v trng cao ng B. Kh

nng Nam thi u vo trng i hc l 0,6 v trng cao ng l 0,8; kh
nng Nam khng u vo t nht mt trong hai trng l 0,3. Tnh xc sut
Nam thi u vo t nht mt trong hai trng A v B.
BI GII
Gi A, B: ln lt l bin c Nam thi u vo trng i hc v thi u vo
trng cao ng. Ta cn tnh: P (A + B) = P (A) + P (B) P (AB)
Theo gi thit, P (A) = 0, 6; P (B) = 0, 8
V P (A + B) = 0, 3 P (AB) = 0, 3 P (AB) = 0, 7
Vy P (A + B) = 0.6 + 0, 8 0, 7 = 0, 7.
Bi 9. Mt l hng c 3 kin sn phm: kin th nht c 8 sn phm tt v
2 ph phm; kin th hai c 10 sn phm tt v 3 ph phm; kin th ba c
15 sn phm tt v 5 ph phm. Mt khch hng kim tra bng cch ly ngu
nhin t mi kin ra 2 sn phm. Ngi ny s mua kin hng nu c 2 sn
phm c ly ra u tt. Tnh xc sut c t nht mt kin hng c mua.
BI GII
Gi A: bin c c t nht mt kin hng c mua. Ta cn tnh: P (A).
Gi Ai : bin c kin hng th i c mua khch hng chn c 2 sn phm
tt t kin th i, i = 1, 2, 3
B: bin c khng c kin hng no c mua.
Ta c A = B = P (A) = 1 P (B).
V B = A1 .A2 .A3 v {A1 , A2 , A3 } l h c lp ton phn nn
P (A1 ).P (A2 ).P (A3 ) = (1 P (A1 )).(1 P (A2 )).(1 P (A3 ))
2
C2
C2
C15
= (1 28 ) (1 10
)

(1

2
2 )
C10
C13
C20
28
15
21
3179
= (1 ) (1 ) (1 ) =
0, 0715
45
26
38
44460
41281
3179
=
0, 9285.
Vy P (A) = 1 P (B) = 1
44460
44460
P (B)

Bi 10. Mt ngi bun bn bt ng sn ang mun bn mt mnh t ln.

ng ta d on rng: nu nn kinh t tip tc pht trin th kh nng mnh
t c mua l 80%; ngc li nu nn kinh t ngng pht trin th ng ta
ch bn c mnh t vi xc sut 40%. Theo d bo ca mt chuyn gia
kinh t: xc sut nn kinh t tip tc tng trng l 65%. Tnh xc sut
28

ngi ny bn c mnh t.
BI GII
Gi A: bin c ngi ny bn c mnh t. Ta cn tnh: P (A).
Gi B: bin c nn kinh tt tip tc pht trin.
Theo gi thit, P (B) = 65% v h {B, B} y , xung khc.
p dng CTXSTP: P (A) = P (B).P (A|B) + P (B).P (A|B)
33
= P (A) = 65%.80% + (1 65%).40% =
= 0, 66.
50
Bi 11. Mt lp c s hc sinh nam bng 3 ln s hc sinh n. T l hc sinh
n gii ton l 30% v t l hc sinh nam gii ton l 40%. Chn ngu nhin
1 hc sinh trong lp ny. Tnh xc sut:
a) Hc sinh ny gii ton.
b) Hc sinh ny l nam, bit rng hc sinh ny gii ton.
BI GII
1
Gi A: bin c chn c hc sinh n = P (A) =
4
3
B: bin c chn c hc sinh nam = P (B) =
4
Ta c {A, B} l h y v xung khc.
a) Gi G: bin c chn c hc sinh gii. p dng CTXSTP:
P (G) = P (A).P (G|A) + P (B).P (G|B) =

1
3
3
30% + 40% = = 0, 375
4
4
8

P (BG)
P (B).P (G|B)
=
P (G)
P (G)
3
40%
4
P (B|G) = 4
= = 0, 8.
0, 375
5

b) Ta cn tnh: P (B|G) =
Cho ta

Bi 12. Mt phn xng c s lng nam cng nhn gp 4 ln s lng n

cng nhn. T l cng nhn tt nghip THPT i vi n l 15%, nam l 25%.
Chn ngu nhin 1 cng nhn ca phn xng ny. Tnh xc sut :
a) Chn c nam cng nhn tt nghip THPT.
b) Chn c mt cng nhn tt nghip THPT.
c) Chn c mt cng nhn n, bit rng ngi ny tt nghip THPT.
BI GII
Gi A: bin c chn c cng nhn tt nghip THPT
1
B: bin c chn c cng nhn n = P (B) =
5
29

C: bin c chn c cng nhn nam = P (C) =

4
5

Ta c {B, C} l h y v xung khc.

a) Gi D: bin c chn c cng nhn nam tt nghip THPT
1
4
Do D = C.A nn P (D) = P (C).P (A|C) = 25% = = 0, 2
5
5
b) Ta cn tnh: P(A). p dng CTXSTP:
P (A) = P (B).P (A|B) + P (C).P (A|C) =

4
23
1
15% + 25% =
= 0, 23
5
5
100

P (B).P (A|B)
P (BA)
=
P (A)
P (A)
1
15%
3
P (B|A) = 5
=
0, 1304.
0, 23
23

c) Ta cn tnh: P (B|A) =
Cho ta

Bi 13. Mt nh my c 3 phn xng cng sn xut mt loi sn phm. S

sn phm ca phn xng th nht, th hai, th ba ln lt chim 25%, 25%
v 50% tng sn lng ca nh my. T l ph phm ca tng phn xng
tng ng l 1%, 2,5% v 4,5%. Ly ngu nhin 1 sn phm t nh my ny.
a) Tm xc sut ly c sn phm tt. Nu ngha thc t ca kt qu
ny.
b) Nu ly c sn phm tt th theo bn, sn phm c kh nng l do
phn xng no sn xut nht?
BI GII
Gi Ai : bin c ly c sn phm do phn xng th i sn xut, i = 1, 2, 3
= P (A1 ) = 25%; P (A2 ) = 25%; P (A3 ) = 50% v h {A1 , A2 , A3 } y ,
xung khc.
a) Gi A: bin c ly c sn phm tt. p dng CTXSTP:
P (A)

= P (A1 ).P (A|A1 ) + P (A2 ).P (A|A2 ) + P (A3 ).P (A|A3 )

= 25%.(1 1%) + 25%.(1 2, 5%) + 50%.(1 4, 5%) =

31
= 0, 96875
32

T l sn phm tt ca nh my l 96,875%, chng t nh my hot ng tt.

b) Ta tnh:
P (A1 ).P (A|A1 )
25%.99%
198
P (A1 .A)
=
=
=
25, 55%
P (A1 |A) =
P (A)
P (A)
0, 96875
775
P (A2 ).P (A|A2 )
25%.97, 5%
39
P (A2 .A)
=
=
=
25, 16%
P (A2 |A) =
P (A)
P (A)
0, 96875
155
P (A3 .A)
P (A3 ).P (A|A3 )
50%.95, 5%
198
P (A3 |A) =
=
=
=
49, 29%
P (A)
P (A)
0, 96875
775
30

So snh cc xc sut trn, ta c th kt lun nu ly c mt sn phm tt

th sn phm c kh nng do phn xng 3 sn xut nht.
Bi 14. Trong mt k thi, mi sinh vin phi thi 2 mn. Bn Nga c lng
rng: xc sut t mn th nht l 0,8. Nu t mn th nht th xc sut
t mn th hai l 0,6; nu khng t mn th nht th xc sut t mn th
hai l 0,3. Tnh xc sut Nga:
a) t mn th hai.
b) t i mn, i = 0, 1, 2.
c) t t nht 1 mn.
d) t mn th 2, bit rng Nga t 1 mn.
e) t mn th 2, bit rng Nga t t nht 1 mn.
BI GII
Gi Ai l bin c Nga thi t mn th i, i = 1, 2
Theo gi thit, P (A1 ) = 0, 8; P (A2 |A1 ) = 0, 6; P (A2 |A1 ) = 0, 3
a) Ta cn tnh: P (A2 ).
Ta c {A1 , A1 } l h y v xung khc. p dng CTXSTP:
P (A2 ) = P (A1 ).P (A2 |A1 ) + P (A1 ).P (A2 |A1 ) = 0, 8.0, 6 + (1 0, 8).0, 3 = 0, 54
b) Gi Bi l bin c Nga thi t i mn, i = 0, 1, 2
B0 = A1 .A2 = P (B0 ) = P (A1 ).P (A2 |A1 ) = 0, 2.(1 0, 3) = 0, 14.

B1 = A1 .A2 + A1 .A2 cho ta

P (B1 )

=
=

P (A1 .A2 ) + P (A1 .A2 ) = P (A1 ).P (A2 |A1 ) + P (A1 ).P (A2 |A1 )
0, 8.(1 0, 6) + (1 0, 8).0, 3 = 0, 38

B2 = A1 .A2 = P (B2 ) = P (A1 ).P (A2 |A1 ) = 0, 8.0, 6 = 0, 48.

c) Gi C l bin c Nga t t nht mt mn = C = B 0
= P (C) = 1 P (B0 ) = 1 0, 14 = 0, 86.
P (A2 .B1 )
P (A2 ).P (B1 |A2 )
d) Ta cn tnh: P (A2 |B1 ) =
=
P (B1 )
P (B1 )
P (A1 ).P (A2 |A1 )
0, 2.0, 3
3
P (A1 .A2 )
=
=
=
0, 1579.
= P (A2 |B1 ) =
P (B1 )
P (B1 )
0, 38
19
P (A2 .C)
P (A2 )
0, 54
27
e) Ta cn tnh: P (A2 |C) =
=
=
=
0, 6279.
P (C)
P (C)
0, 86
43
Bi 15. Mt ngi bn ln lt 3 pht n vo mt mc tiu mt cch c
lp. Xc sut trng mc tiu mi ln bn ln lt l 0,55; 0,6; 0,7. Xc sut
mc tiu b h khi trng 1, 2, 3 pht n ln lt l 0,2; 0,4 ; 0,8.
31

a) Tnh xc sut c i pht n trng mc tiu, i = 0, 1, 2, 3.

b) Tnh xc sut c nhiu nht 2 pht n trng mc tiu.
c) Tnh xc sut mc tiu b h.
d) Gi s mc tiu b h, tnh xc sut c 1 pht n trng mc tiu.
BI GII
Gi Ai : bin c pht n th i trng mc tiu, i = 1, 2, 3
Theo gi thit, P (A1 ) = 0, 55; P (A2 ) = 0, 6; P (A3 ) = 0, 7 v h {A1 , A2 , A3 }
y , xung khc.
a) Gi Bi : bin c c i pht n trng mc tiu, i = 0, 1, 2, 3.
B0 = A1 .A2 A3
= P (B0 ) = P (A1 ).P (A2 ).P (A3 ) = (1 0, 55).(1 0, 6).(1 0, 7) = 0, 054.
Li c B1 = A1 .A2 .A3 + A1 .A2 .A3 + A1 .A2 .A3 nn
P (B1 )

=
=

P (A1 ).P (A2 ).P (A3 ) + P (A1 ).P (A2 ).P (A3 ) + P (A1 ).P (A2 ).P (A3 )
0, 55.0, 4.0, 3 + 0, 45.0, 6.0, 3 + 0, 45.0, 4.0, 7 = 0, 273

Tng t, B2 = A1 .A2 .A3 + A1 .A2 .A3 + A1 .A2 .A3 nn

P (B2 )

=
=

P (A1 ).P (A2 ).P (A3 ) + P (A1 ).P (A2 ).P (A3 ) + P (A1 ).P (A2 ).P (A3 )
0, 55.0, 6.0, 3 + 0, 55.0, 4.0, 7 + 0, 45.0, 6.0, 7 = 0, 442

B3 = A1 .A2 .A3 = P (B3 ) = P (A1 ).P (A2 ).P (A3 ) = 0, 55.0, 6.0, 7 = 0, 231.
Ch . H {B0 , B1 , B2 , B3 } l h y v xung khc nn
P (B0 ) + P (B1 ) + P (B2 ) + P (B3 ) = 1
Do , ta c th tnh P (B2 ) = 1 P (B0 ) P (B1 ) P (B3 ).
b) Gi A: bin c c nhiu nht 2 pht n trng mc tiu. Ta tnh P (A).
Cch 1: A = B 3 = P (A) = 1 P (B 3 ) = 1 0, 231 = 0, 769.
Cch 2: A = B0 + B1 + B2 v h {B0 , B1 , B2 } l h xung khc nn:
P (A) = P (B0 ) + P (B1 ) + P (B2 ) = 0, 054 + 0, 273 + 0, 442 = 0, 769
c) Gi B: bin c mc tiu b h. p dng CTXSTP:
P (B)

= P (B0 ).P (B|B0 ) + P (B1 ).P (B|B1 ) + P (B2 ).P (B|B2 ) + P (B3 ).P (B|B3 )
= 0, 054.0 + 0, 273.0, 2 + 0, 442.0, 4 + 0, 231.0, 8 = 0, 4162

d) Ta cn tnh:
P (B1 |B) =

P (B1 ).P (B|B1 )

0, 273.0, 2
273
P (B1 .B)
=
=
=
0, 1312
P (B)
P (B)
0, 4162
2081
32

Bi 16. C hai chung th: chung I c 5 th en v 10 th trng; chung II

c 8 th en v 15 th trng. Quan st thy t chung I c 1 con th chy sang
chung II; sau , t chung II c 1 con th chy ra ngoi. Tnh xc sut :
a) Con th chy t chung I sang chung II l con th trng.
b) Con th chy ra t chung II l con th trng.
c) Con th chy t chung I sang chung II l con th trng, bit rng con
th chy t chung II ra ngoi l con th trng.
d) Con th chy t chung I sang chung II l th trng v con th chy t
chung II ra ngoi cng l th trng.
BI GII
a) Gi A: bin c con th chy t chung I sang chung II l con th trng
10
2
= P (A) =
=
15
3
b) Gi B: bin c con th chy t chung II ra ngoi l con th trng.
Ta c {A, A} l h y v xung khc. p dng CTXSTP:
P (B) = P (A).P (B|A) + P (A).P (B|A) =

2 16 1 15
47

+
=
0, 6528
3 24 3 24
72

2 16

32
P (AB)
P (A).P (B|A)
c) Ta cn tnh: P (A|B) =
=
= 3 4724 =
0, 6808.
P (B)
P (B)
47
72
4
2 16
= 0, 4444.
d) Ta cn tnh: P (A.B) = P (A).P (B|A) =
3 24
9

Bi 17. C hai chung th: chung I c 8 th en v 12 th trng; chung II

c 6 th en v 15 th trng. Quan st thy t chung I c 1 con th chy sang
chung II; sau , t chung II c 2 con th chy ra ngoi. Tnh xc sut :
a) Hai con th chy t chung II ra ngoi l hai con th trng.
b) Trong 2 con th chy ra t chung 2 c 1 con th trng.
c) Hai con th chy t chung II ra ngoi l hai con th en.
BI GII
Gi A: bin c con th chy t chung I sang chung II l con th trng
8
12
3
2
= P (A) =
= ; P (A) =
= v {A, A} l h y v xung khc.
20
5
20
5
a) Gi B: bin c hai con th chy ra t chung II l 2 con th trng.
p dng CTXSTP:
2
2 C15
38
3 C2
P (B) = P (A).P (B|A) + P (A).P (B|A) = 16
+
=

0, 4935.
2
2
5 C22 5 C22
77
33

b) Gi C: bin c hai con th chy ra t chung II l 2 con th trng.

p dng CTXSTP:
P (C)

= P (A).P (C|A) + P (A).P (C|A)

1
1
2 C15
166
.C21
.C71
3 C16
+
=

0, 4312
=
2
2
5
C22
5
C22
385

c) Gi D: bin c hai con th chy ra t chung II l 2 con th trng.

p dng CTXSTP:
P (D) = P (A).P (D|A) + P (A).P (D|A) =

2 C2
29
3 C62
2 + 27 =
0, 0753
5 C22
5 C22
385

Ch . Gi Bi l bin c trong 2 con th chy ra t chung II c i con th

trng, i = 0, 1, 2 v p dng CTXSTP th ta c cng thc tng qut:
P (Bi )

=
=

P (A).P (Bi |A) + P (A).P (Bi |A)

i
i
3 C16
2 C15
.C22i
.C72i
+
, vi i = 0, 1, 2.

2
2
5
C22
5
C22

Bi 18. C hai chung g: chung I c 12 con g mi v 8 con g trng; chung

II c 15 con g mi v 10 con g trng. Quan st thy c 2 con g chy t
chung I sang chung II; sau , c 1 con g chy t chung II ra ngoi. Tnh
xc sut :
a) Hai con g chy t chung I sang chung II l 2 con g mi.
b) Trong hai con g chy t chung I sang chung II c 1 con g trng.
c) Hai con g chy t chung I sang chung II l 2 con g trng.
d) Con g chy t chung II ra ngoi l con g trng.
BI GII
a) Gi A: bin c hai con g chy t chung I sang chung II l 2 con g mi.
C2
33
= P (A) = 12
=
0, 3474.
2
C20
95
b) Gi B: bin c trong hai con g chy t chung I sang chung II c 1 con
g trng.
48
C 1 .C 1
= P (B) = 8 2 12 =
0, 5052.
C20
95
c) Gi C: bin c hai con g chy t chung I sang chung II l 2 con g trng.
14
C82
0, 1474.
= P (C) = 2 =
C20
95
34

Ch . Gi Ai l bin c trong 2 con g chy t chung I sang chung II c i

2i
C8i .C12
, vi i = 0, 1, 2.
con g trng, i = 0, 1, 2 th P (Ai ) =
2
C20
d) Gi D: bin c con g chy ra t chung II l con g trng.
Ta c {A, B, C} l h y v xung khc. p dng CTXSTP:
P (D)

= P (A).P (D|A) + P (B).P (D|B) + P (C).P (D|C)

2
1
C12
10 C81 .C12
11
C82 12
2
=

+
+
= = 0, 4
2
2
2
C20 27
C20
27 C20 27
5

Bi 19. C hai chung g: chung I c 12 con g mi v 8 con g trng;

chung II c 15 con g mi v 9 con g trng. Quan st thy c 2 con g chy
t chung I sang chung II; sau , c 2 con g chy t chung II ra ngoi. Tnh
xc sut trong 2 con g chy t chung II ra ngoi c i con g mi, i = 0, 1, 2.
BI GII
Gi Ai l bin c trong 2 con g chy t chung I sang chung II c i con g
C i .C 2i
mi, i = 0, 1, 2 th P (Ai ) = 12 2 8 , vi i = 0, 1, 2.
C20
Ta c {A0 , A1 , A2 } l h y v xung khc.
Gi A: bin c hai con g chy ra t chung II l 2 con g trng.
p dng CTXSTP:
P (A)

= P (A0 ).P (A|A0 ) + P (A1 ).P (A|A1 ) + P (A2 ).P (A|A2 )

2
1
2
2
0
C12
.C81 C10
C12
.C80 C92
4118
C12
.C82 C11

=
0, 1334
=
2
2
2
2
2
2
C20
C26
C20
C26
C20
C26
30875

Gi B: bin c trong hai con g chy ra t chung II c 1 con g mi.

p dng CTXSTP:
P (B)

= P (A0 ).P (B|A0 ) + P (A1 ).P (B|A1 ) + P (A2 ).P (B|A2 )

0
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
C12
.C82 C15
C11
C12
.C81 C16
C10
C12
.C80 C17
.C91
15039
=

=
2
2
2
2
2
2
C20
C26
C20
C26
C20
C26
30875

Gi C: bin c trong hai con g chy ra t chung II c 1 con g mi.

p dng CTXSTP:
P (C)

= P (A0 ).P (C|A0 ) + P (A1 ).P (C|A1 ) + P (A2 ).P (C|A2 )

2
1
2
2
2
0
C12
.C81 C16
C12
.C80 C17
11718
C12
.C82 C15

=
0, 3795
=
2
2
2
2
2
2
C20
C26
C20
C26
C20
C26
30875
35

Ch . Gi Bi l bin c trong 2 con g chy ra t chung II c i con g mi,

i = 0, 1, 2. Ta c cng thc tng qut:
P (Bi )

=
=

P (A0 ).P (Bi |A0 ) + P (A1 ).P (Bi |A1 ) + P (A2 ).P (Bi |A2 )

2i
2i
0
i
1
i
2
i
C12
.C82 C15
C11
C12
.C81 C16
C10
C12
.C80 C17
.C92i

2
2
2
2
2
2
C20
C26
C20
C26
C20
C26

Bi 20. Trong mt hp c 12 bng n, trong c 3 bng hng. Ln lt ly

ngu nhin c hon li 3 bng dng. Tm xc sut :
a) C 3 bng ly ra u hng.
b) C 3 bng ly ra u khng hng.
c) C t nht mt bng khng hng.
d) Ch c bng th 2 hng.
BI GII
Ta c lc Bernoulli vi:
- S php th: n = 3
- Xc sut ly c 1 bng hng trong mi php th: p =

3
= 0, 25
12

Khi , Pn (k) = C3k .(0, 25)k .(0, 75)3k , vi k = 0, 3

a) Gi A: bin c ly c 3 bng hng. p dng cng thc Bernoulli:
1
P (A) = P3 (3) = C33 .(0, 25)3 .(0, 75)0 =
= 0, 015625
64
b) Gi B: bin c ly c 3 bng khng hng. Tng t nh trn, ta c:
27
= 0, 421875
P (B) = P3 (0) = C30 .(0, 25)0 .(0, 75)3 =
64
c) Gi C: bin c ly c t nht mt bng khng hng = C = A
1
63
Vy P (C) = 1 P (A) = 1
=
= 0, 984375.
64
64
d) Gi D: bin c ch c bng ly ra ln th 2 l hng. Ta cn tnh: P (D).
Gi Ai : bin c bng ly ra ln th i l bng khng hng, i = 1, 2, 3.
V ly theo phng thc c hon li nn {A1 , A2 , A3 } l h c lp ton phn
9
v P (A1 ) = P (A2 ) = P (A3 ) =
= 0, 75
12
Ta c: D = A1 .A2 .A3
= P (D) = P (A1 ).P (A2 ).P (A3 ) = 0, 75.(1 0, 75).0, 75 = 0, 140625.
Bi 21. Mt l hng c 200 sn phm vi t l ph phm l 6%. Mt khch
hng (khng bit t l ph phm trong l hng l bao nhiu) kim tra l hng
v giao c: ngi ny rt ngu nhin 7 sn phm kim tra, nu c t nht
1 ph phm th s l hng s b loi. Tnh xc sut l hng ny c mua.
36

BI GII
Gi A: bin c l hng ny c mua trong 7 sn phm ly ra kim tra
khng c ph phm no. Cn tnh P (A).
Theo gi thit, ta c lc Bernoulli vi:
- S php th: n = 7
- Xc sut ly c 1 ph phm: p = 0, 06
Ta c cng thc Bernoulli: Pn (k) = C7k .(0, 06)k .(0, 94)7k , vi k = 0, 7
Cho ta P (A) = P7 (0) = C70 .(0, 06)0 .(0, 94)7 = 0, 6485

1.6

Bi tp t gii

Bi 1. Gieo ng thi hai con xc xc cn i v ng cht. Tm xc sut :

a) Tng s chm mt trn hai con xc xc bng 8.
b) Hiu s chm mt trn hai con xc xc c gi tr tuyt i bng 2.
c) S chm mt trn hai con xc xc bng nhau.
Bi 2. Cho hai bin c A, B v P (A) = 0, 4; P (B) = 0, 6; P (A + B) = 0, 7.
Tnh P (AB).
Bi 3. Mt cng ty s dng hai hnh thc qung co: qung co trn bo v
qung cao trn tivi. Qua kho st thng tin nhng ngi n mua sn phm
ca cng ty th thy rng: c 35% khch hng bit c thng tin qung co
trn tivi; 20% khch hng bit c thng tin qung co trn bo v 10%
khch hng bit c thng tin qung co qua c hai hnh thc trn. Chn
ngu nhin mt khch hng n mua sn phm. Tnh xc sut ngi ny
bit c thng tin qung co ca cng ty.
Bi 4. Cho hai hp ng bi: hp th nht c 6 bi v 4 bi xanh; hp th hai
c 8 bi v 2 bi xanh. Chn ngu nhin t mi hp ra 1 bi. Tnh xc sut :
a) Trong 2 bi ly ra c 1 bi xanh.
b) Trong 2 bi ly ra c t nht mt bi xanh.
c) Hai bi ly ra cng mu.
d) Vin bi l ca hp th hai, bit rng trong 2 bi ly ra c 1 bi xanh.
Bi 5. Bn ba vin n vo mt tm bia mt cch c lp. Xc sut trng
ch ca vin n th nht, th hai v th ba ln lt l 0,4; 0,5; 0,7.
a) Tnh xc sut trong 3 vin n c mt vin trng ch.
b) Tnh xc sut c t nht mt vin trng ch.
37

c) Tnh xc sut c khng qu mt vin trng ch.

Bi 6. Hai sinh vin Vui v Phc cng d thi mn xc sut thng k mt cch
c lp. Xc sut c 1 sinh vin thi t l 0,46. Kh nng Phc thi t
l 0,6. Tnh xc sut :
a) Vui thi t.
b) C hai sinh vin cng thi t.
c) C t nht mt sinh vin thi t.
d) Vui thi t, bit rng c mt sinh vin thi t.
Bi 7. Mt nh my sn xut bng n. T l bng hng ca my I, II, III
ln lt l 2%, 3%, 5%. Mt l hng ca nh my ny c 48% sn phm ca
my I, 22% sn phm ca my II, 30% sn phm ca my III.
a) Tnh t l bng n tt ca l hng.
b) Chn ngu nhin mt bng n t l hng ny, nu bng n l bng
hng th n c kh nng do my no sn xut nht?
Bi 8. Nhm nghin cu th trng ca mt cng ty cho bit: trong s nhng
ngi tm hiu thng tin v sn phm ca h c 60% ngi trc tip n
showroom xem sn phm v 40% ngi hi thng tin qua in thoi. Ngoi
ra, trong s nhng ngi n trc tip showroom c 2% ngi mua sn phm,
trong nhng ngi hi qua in thoi th c 1% ngi mua sn phm. Chn
ngu nhin mt ngi tm hiu thng tin v sn phm ca cng ty ny. Tnh
xc sut ngi ny mua sn phm ca cng ty.
Bi 9. C hai hp sn phm: hp th nht c 20 sn phm trong c 4 ph
phm; hp th hai c 18 sn phm trong c 3 ph phm.
a) Ly ngu nhin ng thi 2 sn phm ca hp th nht kim tra.
Tnh xc sut ly c t nht mt ph phm.
b) Ln lt ly ngu nhin 3 sn phm (c hon li) ca hp th hai
kim tra. Tnh xc sut ly c 2 ph phm.
c) Ly ngu nhin t mi hp 1 sn phm. Tnh xc sut ly c ph
phm.
d) Ly ngu nhin mt hp ri t hp ly ngu nhin ra 2 sn phm.Tnh
xc sut ly c ph phm.
e) Ly ngu nhin 1 sn phm t hp th nht b sang hp th hai. Sau
ly ngu nhin ng thi 2 sn phm ca hp th hai. Tnh xc sut
ly c 1 ph phm t hp th hai.

38

Chng 2

I LNG NGU
NHIN V CC QUY
LUT PHN PHI XC
SUT C BIT
2.1

Lut phn phi xc sut ca LNN

Lut phn phi xc sut ca i lng ngu nhin (LNN) l mt biu ,

trong ch ra:
- Cc gi tr c th nhn c ca LNN.
- Xc sut tng ng LNN nhn cc gi tr .
Lut phn phi xc sut ca LNN ri rc c th hin di dng bng, gi
l bng phn phi xc sut, nh sau:
X

x1

x2

...

xn

p1

p2

...

pn

vi xi l cc gi tr ca X; pi = P (X = xi ):

n
X
i=1

pi = 1 v pi > 0, i = 1, n

Ch . Cho X l LNN ri rc c bng phn phi xc sut nh trn th

P (X = c) = 0 nu c
/ {x1 , x2 , . . . , xn }
39

 Lut phn phi xc sut ca LNN lin tc c biu th bi th ca hm

s y = f (x) xc nh trn (, +), gi l hm mt xc sut, tha
mn:
f (x) 0, x
Z
f (x)dx = 1
ii)
i)

Tnh cht: Vi X l LNN lin tc v a, b l hai s thc bt k th

P (a < X < b) = P (a X < b) = P (a < X b) = P (a X b) =

2.1.1

f (x)dx
a

Bng phn phi xc sut (PPXS)

Bi 1. Mt kin hng c 10 sn phm, trong c 6 sn phm loi I v 4 sn

phm loi II. Chn ngu nhin (ng thi) t kin hng ra 2 sn phm. Gi
X l s sn phm loi II c ly ra. Lp bng phn phi xc sut ca X.
BI GII
Ta c: X = 0, 1, 2.

C4k .C62k
, k = 0, 1, 2
Tnh xc sut: P (X = k) =
2
C10
Vy bng PPXS ca X l:
X

1
3

8
15

2
15

Bi 2. L hng I c 10 sn phm tt v 2 ph phm, l hng II c 14 sn phm

tt v 5 ph phm. Chn ngu nhin t l hng I ra 1 sn phm v b vo l
hng II. Sau , t l hng II chn ngu nhin ra 3 sn phm. Gi X l s sn
phm tt trong 3 sn phm ly ra t l hng II.
a) Lp bng phn phi xc sut ca X.
b) Tnh P (1 < X 4).
BI GII
a) Lp bng PPXS ca X:
Ta c: X = 0, 1, 2, 3.
Gi A: bin c sn phm ly t l hng I b vo l hng II l sn phm tt.
= {A, A} l h y v xung khc
40

p dng CTXSTP:
P (X = k)

= P (A).P (X = k|A) + P (A).P (X = k|A)

=

k
k
2 C14
.C53k
.C63k
10 C15
+
, k = 0, 3

3
3
12
C20
12
C20

Vy bng PPXS ca X l:
X

7
684

8
57

1057
2280

2639
6840

b) Da vo bng PPXS, ta c:
P (1 < X 4) = P (X = 2) + P (X = 3) =

581
0, 8494
684

Bi 3. Kin hng I c 12 sn phm trong c 3 ph phm, kin hng II c 15

sn phm trong c 5 ph phm. Chn ngu nhin t mi kin hng ra 1 sn
phm. Gi X l s sn phm tt chn c. Lp bng phn phi xc sut ca X.
BI GII
Ta c: X = 0, 1, 2.
Gi Ai : bin c sn phm ly t kin hng I l sn phm tt, i = 1, 2.
= {A1 , A2 } l h c lp
p dng cng thc nhn:
P (X = 0)
P (X = 2)
P (X = 1)

3
12
9
= P (A1 .A2 ) = P (A1 ).P (A2 ) =
12

5
1
=
15
12
10
1

=
15
2
1
1
5
= 1 P (X = 0) P (X = 2) = 1
=
12 2
12

= P (A1 .A2 ) = P (A1 ).P (A2 ) =

Vy bng PPXS ca X l:
X

1
12

5
12

1
2

Bi 4. Mt x th c 4 vin n, bn ln lt tng vin vo mt mc tiu

mt cch c lp. Xc sut trng mc tiu mi ln bn l 0,7. Nu c 1 vin
trng mc tiu hoc ht n th dng. Gi X l s vin n bn.
41

a) Lp bng phn phi xc sut ca X.

b) Tnh P (2 X < 4).
BI GII
a) Lp bng PPXS ca X:
Ta c: X = 1, 4.
Gi Ai : bin c vin n th i trng mc tiu, i = 1, 4.
Theo gi thit, {A1 , A2 , A3 } l h c lp ton phn.
Ta tnh cc xc sut:
P (X
P (X
P (X
P (X

= 1)
= 2)
= 3)
= 4)

=
=
=
=

P (A1 ) = 0, 7
P (A1 .A2 ) = P (A1 ).P (A2 ) = 0, 3.0, 7 = 0, 21
P (A1 .A2 .A3 ) = P (A1 ).P (A2 ).P (A3 ) = 0, 3.0, 3.0, 7 = 0, 063
1 P (X = 1) P (X = 2) P (X = 3) = 0, 027

Vy bng PPXS ca X l:
X

0,7

0,21

0,063

0,027

b) Da vo bng PPXS: P (2 X < 4) = P (X = 2) + P (X = 3) = 0, 273

Bi 5. C 3 hp: mi hp ng 15 vin bi, trong hp th nht c 3 vin
bi trng, hp th hai c 5 vin bi trng, hp th ba c 2 vin bi trng. Chn
ngu nhin mt hp, ri t hp chn ly ngu nhin ng thi 3 vin bi.
Gi X l s vin bi trng trong 3 vin bi ly ra.
a) Lp bng phn phi xc sut ca X.
b) Tnh cc xc sut P (0 < X < 3), P (1 X 2), P (X > 1).
BI GII
a) Lp bng PPXS ca X:
Ta c: X = 0, 1, 2, 3.
Gi Hi : bin c chn c hp th i, i = 1, 2, 3.
= {H1 , H2 , H3 } l h y v xung khc
p dng CTXSTP:
P (X = 0) = P (H1 ).P (X = 0|H1 )+P (H2 ).P (X = 0|H2 )+P (H3 ).P (X = 0|H3 )
1 C 0 .C 3
1 C 0 .C 3
626
1 C 0 .C 3
= 3 3 12 + 5 3 10 + 2 3 13 =
3
C15
3
C15
3
C15
1365
P (X = 1) = P (H1 ).P (X = 1|H1 )+P (H2 ).P (X = 1|H2 )+P (H3 ).P (X = 1|H3 )
42

2
2
2
1 C51 .C10
1 C21 .C13
193
1 C31 .C12
+
+
=
=

3
3
3
3
C15
3
C15
3
C15
455

P (X = 2) = P (H1 ).P (X = 2|H1 )+P (H2 ).P (X = 2|H2 )+P (H3 ).P (X = 2|H3 )
1 C 2 .C 1
1 C 2 .C 1
1 C 2 .C 1
149
= 3 3 12 + 5 3 10 + 2 3 13 =
3
C15
3
C15
3
C15
1365
P (X = 3) = P (H1 ).P (X = 3|H1 )+P (H2 ).P (X = 3|H2 )+P (H3 ).P (X = 3|H3 )
1 C 3 .C 0
1 C 3 .C 0
1
11
= 3 3 12 + 5 3 10 + 0 =
3
C15
3
C15
3
1365
Vy bng PPXS ca X l:
X

626
1365

193
455

149
1365

11
1365

b) Da vo bng PPXS, ta c:
P (0 < X < 3)
P (1 X 2)

P (X > 1)

2.1.2

193
149
8
+
=
0, 5333
455 1365
15
= P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) + P (X = 2)
193
149
1354
626
+
+
=
0, 9919
=
1365 455 1365
1365
149
11
32
= P (X = 2) + P (X = 3) =
+
=
0, 1172
1365 1365
273

= P (X = 1) + P (X = 2) =

Hm mt ca LNN lin tc

3x2
Bi 1. Cho hm s f (x) =
80

nu x [0, 2]

nu x
/ [0, 2]

a) Chng minh rng f (x) l hm mt ca LNN X.

3
b) Tnh cc xc sut P (1 X ) v P (1 < X < 3).
2

BI GII
a) Ta nhn thy f (x) 0, x nn
f (x) l hm mt xc sut

43

f (x)dx = 1

f (x)dx =

"

3x
x
dx =
8
8

#2

= 1 nn ta c pcm.

b) p dng cng thc P (a X b) =

P (1 X

3
)
2

P (1 X 3)

3
2

f (x)dx =
1
3

f (x)dx =

3
2

f (x)dx ta c:

"

# 23

27 1
3x
x
19
=
dx =
=
8
8
64 8
64
1
" #2
2
7
3x
x3
1
dx =
=1 =
8
8
8
8
1

Bi 2. Chng minh rng

s sau l hm mt xc sut ca LNN lin
( hm
1
, nu x 1
tc X no : f (x) =
x2
0 , nu x < 1
Khi , tnh: P (X 3); P (1 X 2); P (1 < X < 2); P (X > 5)
BI GII
Nhn xt: f (x) 0, x
Z
Z +
f (x)dx =
Ngoi ra:

1
dx =
x2

Vy f (x) l hm mt xc sut.

"

Tnh cc xc sut:
P (X 3)
P (1 X 2)
P (1 X 2)
P (X > 5)

1
x

#+
1

= 0 (1) = 1

"

#3

1
1
2
1
dx =
(1) =
=
2
x
3
3
1 x

1
#2
"
Z 2
Z 2
1
1
1
1
f (x)dx =
=
dx =
= (1) =
2
x
2
2
1 x
1
1
"
#2
Z 2
Z 2
1
1
1
1
dx =
= (1) =
f (x)dx =
=
2
x
2
2
1 x
1
1
"
#+
Z +
Z +
1
1
1
f (x)dx =
=
dx
=

=
x2
x
5
5
5
=

f (x)dx =

Bi 3. Cho LNN X lin tc c hm mt xc sut xc nh bi:


c(1 x2 ) , nu x [1, 1]
f (x) =
0
, nu x
/ [1, 1]
44

a) Xc nh hng s c.
b) Tnh xc sut P (0, 5 X 0, 8)
BI GII

a) Theo gi thit, f (x) l hm mt xc sut nn ta c

"
Z
Z
Z

f (x)dx = 1
#1
1
1
+

3
x
4c
c(1 x2 )dx = 2c x
c(1 x2 )dx = 2
f (x)dx =
M
=
3
3
0
1

0
4c
3
Cho ta
= 1 c = .
3
4

b) Ta c:
P (0, 5 X 0, 8)

=
=

0,8

f (x)dx =
0,5

"

x3 
3
x
4
3

#0,8

0,8
0,5

0,5

3
(1 x2 )dx
4
3263
= 0, 81575
4000

Bi 4. Cho LNN X lin tc c hm mt xc sut l


ax + b , nu x (0, 1)
f (x) =
0
, nu x
/ (0, 1)
Gi s P (X >

1
1
) = , hy xc nh hng s a, b.
2
3

BI GII

f (x)dx = 1
Ta c f (x) l hm mt xc sut nn

"
#1
Z 1
Z +
ax2
a
(ax + b)dx =
f (x)dx =
M
+ bx = + b
2
2
1

0
a
Nn ta c phng trnh: + b = 1 hay a + 2b = 2
2
Mt khc:
"
#1
Z +
Z 1
3a
1
b
ax2
P (X > ) =
f (x)dx =
(ax + b)dx =
+ bx =
+
1
1
2
2
8
2
1
2
2
2

45

1
1
) = nn suy ra 9a + 12b = 8
2
3
Vy ta c h phng trnh


a = 4
2 + 2b
= 2
3

5
9a + 12b = 8

b =
3

Theo gi thit P (X >

Bi 5. Gi s tui th camt thit b in t l LNN lin tc X c hm

cecx , nu x 0
mt xc sut l f (x) =
0
, nu x < 0
a) Xc nh hng s c.

b) Tnh xc sut P (X 10).

1
c) Nu P (X 10) = th gi tr ca c l bao nhiu?
2
BI GII
a) Nhn thy: f (x) 0, x
Z
Z +
f (x)dx =
Mt khc,

cecx dx =

"

ecx

#+
0

= 0 (1) = 1, c

Vy hm s cho l hm mt xc sut vi mi gi tr ca c.

b) P (X 10) =

10

f (x)dx =

10

cecx dx =

"

ecx

#10
0

= 1 e10c

1
1
1
ln2
c) Ta c: P (X 10) = 1 e10c = e10c = c =
2
2
2
10

2.2

Hm phn phi xc sut

Cho LNN X, hm phn phi xc sut l hm F (x) = P (X < x)

Vi X l LNN ri rc c bng phn phi xc sut l

th hm phn phi

X
p

x1
p1

F (x) =

x2
p2

...
...

P (X = xi ).

xi <x

46

xn
pn

C th:

p1

p1 + p2
F (x) =
..................

p + p2 + . . . + pn1

1
1

, nu x x1
, nu x1 < x x2
, nu x2 < x x3
..................
, nu xn1 < x xn
, nu x xn

Nu X l LNNZlin tc c hm mt xc sut l f (x) th hm phn phi

x
f (t)dt. C th:
xc sut F (x) =

(x)
 Nu X c hm mt dng f (x) =
0

0
khi x a

Z x
(t)dt khi a < x b
th
F (x) =

1
khi x b

0
 Nu X c hm mt dng f (x) =
(x)

khi x < a
0Z
x
th
F (x) =
(t)dt khi x a

,
,

khi x [a, b]
khi x
/ [a, b]

,
,

khi x < a
khi x a

Tnh cht:

a) 0 F (x) 1, F () = 0, F (+) = 1.

b) F (x) l hm khng gim.

c) Nu X l LNN lin tc c hm mt xc sut f (x) th F (x) = f (x).

d) Vi X l LNN ri rc th P (a X < b) = F (b) F (a).
e) Vi X l LNN lin tc th

P (a < X < b) =
=

P (a X < b) = P (a < X b)
P (a X b) = F (b) F (a)

Bi 1. Cho X l LNN ri rc c bng phn phi xc sut l

X
p

0
0, 6

1
0, 3

Tm hm phn phi xc sut ca X.

47

2
0, 1

p s

0, 6
F (x) =
0, 9

,
,
,
,

nu
nu
nu
nu

x0
0<x1
1<x2
x>2

Bi 2. Cho X l LNN X ri rc, c bng phn phi xc sut nh sau:

2
0, 1

X
p

0
0, 2

1
0, 1

2
0, 5

3
0, 1

a) Tm hm phn phi xc sut ca X.

b) Tnh cc xc sut P (0 X < 3), P (2 < X 3).
BI GII

a) F (x) =

0
0, 1
0, 3
0, 4
0, 9
1

,
,
,
,
,
,

nu
nu
nu
nu
nu
nu

x 2
2<x0
0<x1
1<x2
2<x3
x>3

b) Da vo bng PPXS:
P (0 X < 3) = P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) + P (X = 2) = 0, 2 + 0, 1 + 0, 5 = 0, 8
Cch 2: Da vo kt qu cu a):
P (0 X < 3) = F (3) F (0) = 0, 9 0, 1 = 0, 8
Tng t,
P (2 < X 3) = P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) + P (X = 2) + P (X = 3) = 0, 9
Bi 3. Tui th ca mt b phn trong mt
dy chuyn sn xut l LNN X
2

2 , nu x (0, 40)
(thng) c hm mt nh sau: f (x) =
25 x + 10

0
, nu x
/ (0, 40)
a) Tm hm phn phi xc sut ca X.
48

b) Tm xc sut tui th ca thit b nh hn 1 nm.

BI GII
a)

F (x)

nu x 0

nu 0 < x 40

f (t)dt ,

nu > 40

0
5x
=
4(x + 10)

nu x 0

nu 0 < x 40

nu > 40

Tht vy, vi 0 < x 40 th

Z

f (t)dt =

=
b) Ta cn tnh:
P (X < 12)

"

25
25
dt =
2
2(x + 10)
0 2(t + 10)
25  1
1 
25x

=
2 10 x + 10
20(x + 10)
Z

= P (0 < X < 12) =

=

"

25
2(x + 10)

#12

12

f (x)dx =

12

#x
0

25
dt
2(t + 10)2

1  15
25  1

=
= 0, 68182
2 10 22
22

Cch 2: Da vo kt qu cu a):


5x

P (X < 12) = P (0 < X < 12) = F (12) F (0) =

4(x + 10) 

x=12

Bi 4. Cho LNN X c hm mt : f (x) =

a) Tm hm phn phi xc sut ca X.
b) Tm P (3 < X < 5).

49

0
2
x2

0 =

nu x < 2

nu x 2

15
22

BI GII
a)

0
,
Z
x
=
f (t)dt ,

(
0
, nu
=
2
1
, nu
x

F (x)

Tht vy, vi x 2 th
Z

f (t)dt =

x
2

2
dt =
t2

"

#x
2

nu x < 2
nu x 2
x<2
x2

2
2  2
=1
=
x
2
x

b) Ta cn tnh:
P (3 < X < 5)

f (x)dx =

"

#5
2

2
dt
t2

2  2 3
= = 0, 6
=
5
2
5

Cch 2: Da vo kt qu cu a):

2 
P (3 < X < 5) = F (5) F (3) = 1 
x

x=5

0=

3
5

Bi 5. Tui th ca ngi dn mt
 a phng l LNN X c hm phn
0
, khi x 0
phi xc sut cho nh sau: F (x) =
0,013x
1e
, khi x > 0
a) Tnh t l ngi dn th t 60 n 70 tui.
b) Xc nh hm mt xc sut ca X.
BI GII
a) Ta cn tnh: P (60 X 70) :
P (60 X 70)

=
=




F (70) F (60) = 1 e0,013x 

1e

0,013.70

1+e
50

x=70

0,013.60





1 e0,013x 


0, 0559

x=60

b) Ta c hm mt xc sut ca X l f (x) = F (x)

Vi x < 0 th F (x) = 0 nn F (x) = 0
Vi x > 0 th F (x) = 1 e0,013x nn F (x) = 0, 013e0,013x
Ti x = 0 ta c

F (x)

Vy f (x) =

2.3

1 e0,013x
F (x) F (0)
= lim
= lim
x0
x0
x0
x
0,013x
e
1
= lim
0, 013 = 0, 013
x0 0, 013x

0
0, 013e0,013x

,
,

nu x < 0
nu x 0

Cc c trng bng s ca LNN

Mode v Median
Mode ca LNN X, k hiu M odX, l gi tr x0 sao cho:
 P (X = x0 ) max, nu X l LNN ri rc
 f (x0 ) max, nu X l LNN lin tc c hm mt xc sut f (x)
Ch . M odX cn c gi l gi tr tin chc nht hay gi tr chc chn
nht ca LNN X.
Median ca LNN X (cn gi l trung v ca X), k hiu M edX, l s
thc m tha: P (X m) 21
v
P (X m) 21
Nu X l LNN lin tc th
M edX = m P (X m) = P (X m) =

1
2

K vng, Phng sai, lch chun

K vng ca LNN X, k hiu EX hoc M X, l mt s thc c xc
nh nh sau:
 Nu X l LNN ri rc c bng phn phi xc sut l
X
p
th

EX =

n
X

x1
p1

x2
p2

...
...

xn
pn

xi pi = x1 p1 + x2 p2 + . . . + xn pn

i=1

51

 Nu X l LNN lin tc c hm mt xc sut f (x) th

EX =

xf (x)dx

Phng sai ca LNN X, k hiu DX hoc V arX, l mt s thc khng

m c xc nh bi:
DX = E(X EX)2 = E(X2 ) (EX)2
 Nu X l LNN ri rc c bng phn phi xc sut l
X
p
th

DX =

n
X

x2i pi

x1
p1

...
...

x2
p2
2

(EX) =

i=1

n
X

x2i pi

xn
pn
n
X

i=1

i=1

xi pi

2

 Nu X l LNN lin tc c hm mt xc sut f (x) th

DX

x2 f (x)dx (EX)2

x f (x)dx

Z

xf (x)dx

2

ngha: EX l gi tr trung bnh ca LNN X v DX l phn tn

ca LNN X xung quanh gi tr trung bnh.
Tnh cht ca k vng v phng sai:
a) Vi C l hng s th E(C) = C

D(C) = 0

b) Vi l mt s thc th E(.X) = .EX

D(.X) = 2 .DX

c) Vi mi LNN X, Y th E(X + Y ) = EX + EY
d) Nu X, Y l hai LNN c lp th D(X + Y ) = DX + DY

lch chun ca LNN X l gi tr (X) = DX ( rng (X) c

cng n v o vi X)

52

Bi 1. Cho LNN X ri rc c bng phn phi xc sut l:

1
0, 15

X
p

0
0, 1

2
0,45

4
0, 05

5
0, 25

a) Tm M odX, M edX, EX, DX.

b) Tm E(2X + 5), D(3X + 9).
BI GII
a) Da vo bng PPXS: M odX = 2; M edX = 2.
EX
DX

=
=

5
X

i=1
5
X
i=1

xi .pi = 1.0, 15 + 0.0, 1 + 2.0, 45 + 4.0, 05 + 5.0, 25 =

11
= 2, 2
5

x2i .pi (EX)2

= (1)2 .0, 15 + 02 .0, 1 + 22 .0, 45 + 42 .0, 05 + 52 .0, 25 (2, 2)2 = 4, 16

b) p dng tnh cht ca k vng v phng sai:
E(2X + 5)
D(3X + 9)

= E(2X) + E(2) = 2EX + 2 = 2.2, 2 + 2 = 9, 4

= D(3X) + D(9) = 9DX + 0 = 9.4, 16 = 37, 44

Bi 2. Cho LNN X ri rc c bng phn phi xc sut l:

X
p

1
0, 15

2
a

3
0, 35

4
b

Tm gi tr ca hng s a, b EX = 2, 8.
BI GII
Da vo tnh cht ca bng PPXS, ta c phng trnh:
0, 15 + a + 0, 35 + b = 1 hay a + b = 0, 5
Li c: EX =

4
X

xi .pi = 1.0, 15 + 2a + 3.0, 35 + 4b = 2a + 4b + 1, 2

i=1

Theo gi thit, EX = 0, 2 nnsuy ra 2a + 4b + 1, 2 = 2,8 a + 2b = 0, 8

a = 0, 2
a + b = 0, 5

Do , ta c h phng trnh:
b = 0, 3
a + 2b = 0, 8
Bi 3. Mt l hng c 8 sn phm, trong c 5 sn phm loi I v 3 sn
phm loi II. Ly ngu nhin ng thi 3 sn phm t l hng ny.
53

a) Tnh s sn phm loi I tin chc nht trong 3 sn phm ly ra.

b) Tnh trung bnh s sn phm loi I trong 3 sn phm ly ra.
c) Gi Y l s sn phm loi II trong 3 sn phm ly ra. Tnh EY, DY .
BI GII
Gi X l s sn phm loi I trong 3 sn phm ly ra. Ta c: X = 0, 3
C5k .C33k
vi k = 0, 3
Ngoi ra, P (X = k) =
C83
Nn ta c bng PPXS ca X l:
X

1
56

15
56

15
28

5
28

a) Da vo bng PPXS, ta c s sn phm tt tin chc nht trong 3 sn phm

ly ra l M odX = 2
b) Trung bnh s sn phm loi I trong 3 sn phm ly ra l
EX =

3
X

xi .pi =

i=0

15
= 1, 875
8

c) Ta tm bng PPXS ca Y :
Ta c: Y = 0, 3
C k .C 3k
vi k = 0, 3
P (X = k) = 3 35
C8
Nn ta c bng PPXS ca Y l:
Y

5
28

15
28

15
56

1
56

yi .pi =

9
= 1, 125
8

Khi ,
EY
DY

=
=

3
X

i=0
3
X
i=0

yi2 .pi (EY )2 =

225
0, 5022
448

Bi 4. Cho LNN X lin tc c hm mt xc sut l

3x2
, khi x (2, 2)
f (x) =
16
0
, khi x
/ (2, 2)
54

Tm k vng v phng sai ca X.

BI GII
K vng: EX =

3x2
dx =
x
xf (x)dx =
16
2

s di du tch phn l)
Phng sai:
Z
Z +
2
2
x f (x)dx (EX) =
DX =
=

2
2

3x3
dx = 0 (v hm
16

3x2
dx 0
16
2

"
#2
Z
Z 2
3 x5
3x4
3 2 4
12
x dx =
dx =

= 2, 4
=
8 0
8 5
5
2 16
x2

Bi 5. Cho LNN X lin tc c hm mt xc sut l


a(3x x3 ) , khi x [0, 3]
f (x) =
0
, khi x
/ [0, 3]
a) Xc nh hng s a.
b) Tm M odX.
c) Tm k vng v phng sai ca X.
d) Tm k vng v phng sai ca Y = 3X + 5.
BI GII
a) f (x) l hm mt
Ta c:

f (x)dx =

3
0

f (x)dx = 1

"

 3x2
x4 
a(3x x3 )dx = a

2
4

#3
0

9a
4

4
9a
= 1 a = .
Suy ra
4
9

b) M odX l s x0 sao cho f (x) t cc i ti x0 nn M odX [0, 3] .

4
Vi x [0, 3] : f (x) = (3x x3 )
9
=

f (x)

f (x)

4
(3 3x2 ) = 0 x = 1
9
8x
3

8
8
> 0 v f (1) =
<0
3
3
nn f (x) t cc i ti x = 1 hay M odX = 1
V f (1) =

55

c) Ta c
EX

=
DX

Z 3
4
4
x (3x x3 )dx =
xf (x)dx =
(3x2 x4 )dx
9
9
0
0

# 3
"

8 3
4  3 x5 
x
0, 9238
=
9
5
15
0
 2
Z 3
Z +
8 3
2
2
2 4
3
x f (x)dx (EX) =
x (3x x )dx
9
15

# 3
"
Z 3
 3x4
6
4
64
x
11
4
64
(3x3 x5 )dx
=

=
0, 1467

9
75
9 4
6
75
75
0
+

d) Cch 1: Tnh trc tip tng t cu c)

Z
Z +
(3x + 5)f (x)dx =
E(3X + 5) =
Z

4
(3x + 5) (3x x3 )dx
9

4
(3x4 5x3 + 9x2 + 15x)dx
9
0
"
#3


5
4
2
4
3x
5x
15x
3
8
=

+ 3x3 +
+ 5 7, 7713
=
9
5
4
2
5

D(3X + 5)

(3x + 5)2 f (x)dx (EX)2

4
(3x + 5) (3x x3 )dx
9
2


2
8 3
+5
5




4
817
5
4
3
2
(9x 30x + 2x + 90x + 75x)dx
+ 16 3
=
9
25
0
"
#3 



4
2

4
3x6
x
75x
817
=

6x5 +
+ 30x3 +
+ 16 3

9
2
2
2
25
0
 



817
33
+ 16 3 =
= 1, 32
=
34 + 16 3
25
25
Z

Cch 2: p dng tnh cht ca k vng v phng sai

8 3
8 3
E(3X + 5) = E(3X) + E(5) = 3EX + 5 = 3
+5=
+ 5 7, 7713
15
5
11
33
D(3X + 5) = D(3X) + D(5) = 9DX + 0 = 9
=
= 1, 32
75
25
56

2.4
2.4.1

Cc quy lut phn phi xc sut c bit

Quy lut phn phi siu bi

Xt mt tng th gm N phn t, trong c M phn t loi A. Ly ngu

nhin ng thi n phn t t tng th ny. Gi X l s phn t loi A trong
n phn t ly ra. Khi , ta ni: X tun theo quy lut phn phi siu bi.
K hiu: X H(N, M, n). Cng thc tnh xc sut:
P (X = k) =

nk
k
CM
.CN
M
n
CN

vi k = 0, n

Tnh cht: Cho X H(N, M, n)

M
N
N n
b) Phng sai: DX = npq
vi q = 1 p
N 1
a) K vng: EX = np vi p =

Bi 1. Cho X H(20, 12, 5). Tnh cc xc sut:

a) P (X = 4)

b) P (X < 2)

c) P (X > 1)

d) P (X 3)

BI GII

k
C12
.C85k
Ta c: X H(20, 12, 5) = P (X = k) =
vi k = 0, 5
5
C20
165
C 4 .C 1
0, 25542
a) P (X = 4) = 12 5 8 =
C20
646
C 1 .C 4
56
C 0 .C 5
0, 05779
b) P (X < 2) = P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) = 12 5 8 + 12 5 8 =
C20
C20
969

c) P (X > 1) = 1 P (X 1) = 1 P (X = 0) P (X = 1)
0
1
C12
.C85
C12
.C84
913
=1

=
0, 94221
5
5
C20
C20
969
d) P (X 3) = P (X = 3) + P (X = 4) + P (X = 5)
3
4
5
C12
.C82
C12
.C81
C12
.C80
682
=
+
+
=
0, 70382
5
5
5
C20
C20
C20
969
Bi 2. Cho X H(10, 4, 5). Tnh:
a) P (X < 3)
e) EX

b) P (X 3)
f ) DX

c) P (X > 3)
g) E(3X 2)
57

d) P (X 3)
h) D(5X 3)

BI GII

C4k .C65k
Ta c: X H(10, 4, 5) = P (X = k) =
vi k = 0, 4
5
C10
C 1 .C 4
11
C 0 .C 5
0, 2619
a) P (X < 2) = P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) = 4 5 6 + 4 5 6 =
C10
C10
42
b) P (X 2) = 1 P (X > 2) = 1 P (X = 3) P (X = 4)
C43 .C62
C44 .C61
31
=1

=
0, 7381
5
5
C10
C10
42
1
C 4 .C 1
0, 0238
c) P (X > 3) = P (X = 4) = 4 5 6 =
C10
42
C 4 .C 1
11
C 3 .C 2
0, 2619
d) P (X 3) = P (X = 3) + P (X = 4) = 4 5 6 + 4 5 6 =
C10
C10
42
4
=2
e) EX = np = 5
10
N n
4 6 6
4
f) DX = npq
=5

= = 0, 8
N 1
10 10 9
5
g) E(3X 2) = 3EX 2 = 3.2 2 = 4
h) D(5X 3) = 25DX = 25.0, 8 = 20

Bi 3. Mt l hng c 100 sn phm, trong c 90 sn phm tt. Ly ngu

nhin ng thi 15 sn phm t l hng ny. Tm s sn phm tt trung bnh
v phng sai ca s sn phm tt trong 15 sn phm c ly ra.
BI GII
Gi X l s sn phm tt trong 15 sn phm ly ra, ta c: X H(100, 90, 15).
27
90
=
= 13, 5
S sn phm tt trung bnh: EX = np = 15
100
2
N n
90 10 85
51
Phng sai: DX = npq
= 15

=
1, 1591
N 1
100 100 99
44
Bi 4. C 20 chi tit my, trong c 15 chi tit my tt. Ly ngu nhin
ng thi 4 chi tit my. Gi X l s chi tit my tt trong s 4 chi tit my
c ly ra.
a) Xc nh quy lut phn phi xc sut ca X.
b) Tnh xc sut ly c 3 chi tit my tt.
c) Tnh trung bnh s chi tit tt c ly ra v phng sai ca X.
BI GII
a) X tun theo phn phi siu bi: X H(20, 15, 4)
58

k
C15
.C54k
vi k = 0, 4
4
C20
3
455
C15
.C51
=
0, 4696
Do , P (X = 3) =
4
C20
969

b) Ta c

P (X = k) =

15
c) Trung bnh s chi tit tt c ly ra: EX = np = 4
=3
20
15 5 16
12
N n
=4

=
0, 6316
Phng sai: DX = npq
N 1
20 20 19
19
Bi 5. Mt ng ch vn lan nhm 20 chu lan c hoa mu vo cng
vi 100 chu lan c hoa mu tm (lan cha n hoa). Mt khch hng chn mua
ngu nhin ng thi 15 chu t 120 chu lan ny.
a) Tnh xc sut khch hng mua c t 5 n 6 chu lan c hoa mu .
b) Gi X l s chu lan c hoa mu m khch hng chn c. Tnh
trung bnh v phng sai ca X.
BI GII
Gi X l s chu lan c hoa mu m khch hng mua c
15k
k
C20
.C100
, k = 0, 15
Ta c X H(120, 20, 15) = P (X = k) =
15
C120
C 5 .C 10
C 6 .C 9
a) P (5 X 6) = P (X = 5) + P (X = 6) = 20 15 100 + 20 15 100 0, 07232
C120
C120
5
20
= = 2, 5
b) Trung bnh: EX = np = 15
120
2
N n
20 100 105
125
Phng sai: DX = npq
= 15

=
1, 8382
N 1
120 120 119
68

2.4.2

Quy lut phn phi nh thc

Xt mt lc Bernoulli gm:
 n php th c lp
 Trong mi php th ch xy ra mt trong hai bin c A v A: P (A) = p
Gi X l s ln xy ra bin c A trong n php th. Ta ni rng: X tun theo
quy lut phn phi nh thc. K hiu: X B(n, p).
Cng thc tnh xc sut:
k k nk
P (X = k) = Cn
.p .q

Tnh cht: Cho X B(n, p)

59

vi q = 1 p v k = 0, n

a) K vng: EX = np
b) Phng sai: DX = npq vi q = 1 p
c) np q M odX np + p

Bi 1. Cho X B(10; 0, 7). Tnh:

a) P (X = 5)
f ) EX

b) P (X < 2)
g) DX

c) P (X 2)
h) E(9X + 4)

d) P (X > 2)
i) D(4X + 9)

e) P (X 2)
j) M odX

BI GII
k
Ta c X B(10; 0, 7) = P (X = k) = C10
.(0, 7)k .(0, 3)10k , k = 0, 10
5
a) P (X = 5) = C10
.(0, 7)5 .(0, 3)5 0, 10292

b) P (X < 2) = P (X = 0) + P (X = 1)
0
1
= C10
.(0, 7)0 .(0, 3)10 + C10
.(0, 7)1 .(0, 3)9 0, 00014
0
c) P (X 2) = P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) + P (X = 2) = C10
.(0, 7)0 .(0, 3)10
1
2
+ C10
.(0, 7)1 .(0, 3)9 + C10
.(0, 7)2 .(0, 3)8 0, 00159

d) P (X > 2) = 1 P (X 2) = 1 P (X = 0) P (X = 1) P (X = 2)
0
1
2
= 1 C10
.(0, 7)0 .(0, 3)10 C10
.(0, 7)1 .(0, 3)9 C10
.(0, 7)2 .(0, 3)8
0, 99841
e) P (X 2) = 1 P (X < 2) = 1 P (X = 0) P (X = 1)
0
1
= 1 C10
.(0, 7)0 .(0, 3)10 C10
.(0, 7)1 .(0, 3)9 0, 99986
f) EX = np = 10.0, 7 = 7
g) DX = npq = 10.0, 7.0, 3 = 2, 1
h) E(9X + 4) = 9EX + 4 = 9.7 + 4 = 67
i) D(4X + 9) = 16DX = 16.2, 1 = 33, 6
j) Ta c: np q M odX np + p
10.0, 7 0, 3 M odX 10.0, 7 + 0, 7 6, 7 M odX 7, 7
Vy M odX = 7
Bi 2. Tung ba ln mt con xc xc. Tnh xc sut c:
a) Hai ln xut hin mt 1 chm.
b) t nht mt ln xut hin mt 1 chm.
BI GII
60

Gi X l s ln xut hin mt 1 chm trong ba ln tung con xc xc

1
Ta c X B(n, p) vi n = 3 v p =
 1 k 6 5 3k

, k = 0, 3
Khi ,
P (X = k) = C3k
6
6
 1 2  5 1
5
2
a) Ta tnh P (X = 2) = C3
0, 0694

=
6
6
72
b) Tnh P (X 1) = 1 P (X < 1) = 1 P (X = 0)
 1 0  5 3
91
0, 4213

=
= 1 C30
6
6
216

Bi 3. Mt thi c 10 cu hi, mi cu c 4 phng n tr li trong ch

c 1 phng n ng. Sinh vin A tr li mt cch ngu nhin tt c cc cu
hi. Gi X l s cu tr li ng trong 10 cu.
a) Xc nh quy lut phn phi ca X.
b) Tnh xc sut sinh vin A tr li ng t 2 n 3 cu hi.
c) Tnh xc sut sinh vin A tr li ng t nht mt cu hi.
d) Tnh trung bnh s cu hi c tr li ng v phng sai ca X.
e) Tnh s cu hi m sinh vin A c kh nng tr li ng ln nht.
BI GII
a) X tun theo phn phi nh thc: X B(10; 0, 25).
k
b) V X B(10; 0, 25) nn P (X = k) = C10
.(0, 25)k .(0, 75)10k , k = 0, 10
Ta cn tnh: P (2 X 3)
P (2 X 3) =
P (X = 2) + P (X = 3)
2
2
3
= C10 .(0, 25) .(0, 75)8 + C10
.(0, 25)3 .(0, 75)7 0, 531
c) Ta cn tnh: P (X 1)
P (X 1) = 1 P (X < 1) = 1 P (X = 0)
0
= 1 C10
.(0, 25)0 .(0, 75)10 0, 943
d) EX = np = 10.0, 25 = 2, 5; DX = npq = 10.0, 25.0, 75 = 1, 875
e) S cu hi m sinh vin c kh nng tr li ng nht chnh l M odX
Ta c: np q M odX np + p 1, 75 M odX 2, 75
Vy M odX = 2
Bi 4. Mt ngi nui 160 con g mi cng loi. Xc sut 1 con g trng
trong ngy l 0,8.
a) Tm xc sut ngi nui c c t nht 130 trng trong ngy.
b) Gi s mi trng bn c 2200 ng, tin cho mi con g n trong ngy
l 1000 ng, tnh s tin li trung bnh thu c trong ngy.
61

BI GII
a) Gi X l s trng thu c trong ngy ( s con g trng trong ngy)
Ta c: X B(160; 0, 8) nn
k
P (X = k) = C160
.(0, 8)k .(0, 2)160k ,

k = 0, 160

Ta cn tnh: P (X 103)
P (X 130) =
P (X = 130) + P (X = 131) + . . . + P (X = 160)
130
131
= C160
.(0, 8)130 .(0, 2)30 + C160
.(0, 8)131 .(0, 2)29 + . . .
160
+C160
.(0, 8)160 .(0, 2)0 0, 39
b) Gi Y l s tin thu c trong ngy. Ta cn tnh EY
Ta c: Y = 2200.X 1000.160 = 2200X 160000
Do , EY = 2200EX 160000
M X B(160; 0, 8) nn EX = np = 160.0, 8 = 128
Vy EY = 2200.128 160000 = 121600 (ng)

Bi 5. Mt nh vn trng 121 cy mai vi xc sut n hoa ca mi cy mai

trong dp tt l 0,75. Gi bn 1 cy mai n hoa l 500 ngn ng.
a) Tnh s cy mai trung bnh n hoa trong dp tt.
b) Gi s nh vn bn ht nhng cy mai n hoa, tnh s tin trung bnh
m nh vn thu c.
BI GII
Gi X l s cy mai n hoa trong dp tt. Ta c: X B(121; 0, 75)
a) Ta tnh EX = np = 121.0, 75 = 90, 75 (cy)
b) Gi Y l s tin nh vn thu c khi bn nhng cy mai. Ta c: Y = 500X
Do , s tin trung bnh nh vn thu c l
EY = 500EX = 500.90, 75 = 45, 375 (triu ng)

2.4.3

Quy lut phn phi Poisson

i lng ngu nhin X c gi l c phn phi Poisson, k hiu: X P (),

nu X nhn cc gi tr 0, 1, 2, . . . v xc sut c tnh bi:
P (X = k) =

e .k
k!

vi k = 0, 1, 2, . . .

trong l trung bnh s ln xut hin bin c no m ta quan tm.

Lu rng: phn phi Poisson thng gn vi yu t thi gian.
Tnh cht:
62

a) EX = DX =
b) 1 M odX

Bi 1. Cho X P (3). Tnh:

a) P (X = 3)

b) P (X < 2)

BI GII
V X P (3) nn P (X = k) =

c) P (X 3)

d) P (X > 2)

e3 .3k
vi k = 0, 1, 2, . . .
k!

9
e3 .33
= e3 0, 224
a) P (X = 3) =
3!
2

b) P (X < 2) = P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) =

e3 .30
e3 .31
+
= 4e3 0, 1991
0!
1!

c) P (X 3) = P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) + P (X = 2) + P (X = 3)
e3 .30
e3 .31
e3 .32
e3 .33
=
+
+
+
= 13e3 0, 6472
0!
1!
2!
3!
d) P (X > 2) = 1 P (X 2) = 1 P (X = 0) P (X = 1) P (X = 2)
e3 .31
e3 .32
17
e3 .30

= 1 e3 0, 5768
=1
0!
1!
2!
2
Bi 2. Ti mt bn cng, trung bnh mi ngy c 5 tu cp bn. Tnh xc sut
trong mt ngy:
a) C 3 tu cp bn.
b) C t nht 4 tu cp bn.
c) C ng 5 tu cp bn.
d) C t 3 n 7 tu cp bn.
BI GII
Gi X l s tu cp bn trong mt ngy th X P (5). Do ,
P (X = k) =

e5 .5k
vi k = 0, 1, 2, . . .
k!

e5 .53
125 5
a) P (X = 3) =
=
e 0, 1404
3!
6
b) P (X 4) = 1 P (X = 0) P (X = 1) P (X = 2) P (X = 3)
e5 .51
e5 .52
e5 .53
118 5
e5 .50

=
e 0, 735
=1
0!
1!
2!
3!
3
e5 .55
625 5
c) P (X = 5) =
=
e 0, 175
5!
24
63

d) P (3 X 7) = P (X = 3) + P (X = 4) + P (X = 5) + P (X = 6) + P (X = 7)
e5 .53
e5 .54
e5 .55
e5 .56
e5 .57
=
+
+
+
+
0, 742
3!
4!
5!
6!
7!
Bi 3. Ti mt siu th, trung bnh c 5 pht th c 10 khch n quy tnh
tin.
a) Tnh xc sut trong 1 pht c 3 khch n quy tnh tin.
b) Tnh xc sut trong 1 pht c t 1 n 3 khch n quy tnh tin.
c) Tnh s khch c kh nng n quy tnh tin ln nht trong 1 gi.
BI GII
a) Gi X l s khch n quy tnh tin trong 1 pht th X P (1 ) vi 1 l
1.10
trung bnh s khch n quy tnh tin trong 1 pht: 1 =
=2
5
e1 (1 )3
e2 .23
4
Ta c: P (X = 3) =
=
= e2 0, 18044
3!
3!
3
b) Ta cn tnh: P (1 X 3)
P (1 X 3) = P (X = 1) + P (X = 2) + P (X = 3)
e2 .22
e2 .23
16 2
e2 .21
+
+
=
e 0, 722
=
1!
2!
3!
3
c) Gi Y l s khch n quy tnh tin trong 1 gi th Y P (2 ) vi 2 l trung
60.10
bnh s khch n quy tnh tin trong 1 gi ( 60 pht): 2 =
= 120
5
S khch c kh nng n quy tnh tin ln nht trong 1 gi chnh l M odY
Ta c: 2 1 M odY 2 119 M odY 120
Vy M odY = 119 hoc 120.
Bi 4. B phn qun l ca mt siu th cho bit: trong nhng ngy ng
khch, nhn vin tnh tin ca siu th trung bnh trong 5 pht tnh tin xong
cho 2 khch. Tnh xc sut trong ngy ng khch, mt khch hng phi
ch qu 5 pht ngi khch k trc c tnh tin xong.
BI GII
Gi X l s khch c nhn vin tnh tin xong trong 5 pht. Ta c: X P (2)
e2 .20
Ta cn tnh: P (X < 1) = P (X = 0) =
= e2 0, 1353
0!
Bi 5. Mt ngi c 4 xe t cho thu. Hng ngy, chi ph cho mi xe l 10usd
(cho d xe c c thu hay khng). Gi cho thu mi xe l 70usd. Gi s yu
64

cu thu xe mi ngy l LNN c phn phi Poisson vi tham s = 2, 8 .

Tnh s tin trung bnh ngi ny thu c trong mt ngy.
BI GII
Gi X l s yu cu thu xe mi ngy.
Theo gi thit, X P (2, 8) nn EX = 2, 8
Gi Y l s tin thu c trong mt ngy.
Ta c: Y = 70X 10.4 = 70X 40
Vy s tin trung bnh ngi ny thu c trong mt ngy l
EY = 70EX 40 = 70.2, 8 40 = 156

2.4.4

Quy lut phn phi chun

LNN X lin tc c gi l c phn phi chun nu hm mt c dng:

2
1
12 x

f (x) = e
2
K hiu: X N (, 2 ). Cng thc tnh xc sut:
b 
a 
P (a X b) =

Gi tr ca hm c tnh bng cch tra bng 1.

Tnh cht:
a) P (X = C) = 0 vi C l hng s bt k.
b) EX = M odX = M edX = .
c) DX = 2
Bi 1. Cho LNN X N (3, 4). Tnh:
a) P (X > 1)
c) P (|X 1| < 2)

BI GII
V X N (3, 4) nn

b) P (0 < X < 1)
d) P (|X 1| > 1)
P (a X b) =

b 3
2

a) P (X > 1) = P (1 < X < +) = (+)

1 3

2
= 0, 5 + (1) = 0, 5 + 0, 3413 = 0, 8413
65

a 3
2

= 0, 5 (1)

b) P (0 < X < 1) =

1 3

0 3

= (1) (1, 5)
2
2
= (1) + (1, 5) = 0, 3413 + 0, 4332 = 0, 0919

c) P (|X 1| < 2) = P (1 < X < 3) =

3 3

2
= (0) (2) = 0 + (2) = 0, 4772

 1 3 
2

d) V |X 1| > 1 X > 2 hoc X < 0 nn ta c:

P (|X 1| > 1) = P (X > 2)+P (X < 0) = P (2 < X < +)+P ( < X < 0)
2 3
0 3
= (+)
+
()
2
2
= (+) (0, 5) + (1, 5) + (+)
= 2(+) + (0, 5) (1, 5) = 2.0, 5 + 0, 1915 0, 4332 = 0, 7583
Cch 2: P (|X 1|"> 1) = 1 P (|X 1| #1) = 1 P (0 X 2)
2 3
0 3
=1
= 1 (0, 5) + (1, 5)

2
2
= 1 + (0, 5) (1, 5) = 1 + 0, 1915 0, 4332 = 0, 7583
Bi 2. Chiu cao ca mt loi cy ly g l i lng ngu nhin tun theo
quy lut phn phi chun vi chiu cao trung bnh l 20m v lch chun l
2,5m. Cy t tiu chun khai thc l cy c chiu cao ti thiu l 15m. Tnh
t l cy t tiu chun khai thc.
BI GII
Gi X l chiu cao ca cy. Ta c: X N (, 2 ) vi = 20m; = 2, 5m
T l cy t tiu chun khai thc chnh bng P (X 15):
 15 
P (X 15) = P (15 X < +) = (+)

 15 20 
= 0, 5 (2)
= (+)
2, 5
= 0, 5 + (2) = 0, 5 + 0, 4772 = 0, 9772
Bi 3. Chiu cao ca cc sinh vin mt trng i hc l LNN c phn
phi chun vi chiu cao trung bnh l 158cm v lch chun l 7,5cm. Nu
chn ra 10% sinh vin c chiu cao cao nht th chiu cao ti thiu ca sinh
vin trong nhm ny l bao nhiu?
BI GII
Gi X l chiu cao ca sinh vin th X N (, ) vi = 158; = 7, 5
a l chiu cao ti thiu trong nhm sinh vin c chiu cao cao nht.
Ta cn tm a sao cho P (X a) = 10% = 0, 1
66

a 

Ta c: P (X a) = P (a X < +) = (+)

 a 158
 a 158 
= 0, 5
= (+)
7, 5
7, 5
 a 158 
 a 158 
tra bng 1
Suy ra 0, 5
= 0, 1
= 0, 4
=
(1, 29)
7, 5
7, 5
a 158
Do
= 1, 29 hay a = 167, 675.
7, 5
Bi 4. im thi Toeic ca sinh vin nm cui mt trng i hc l LNN
X c phn phi chun vi gi tr trung bnh l 560 im v lch chun l 78
im. Tnh:
a) T l sinh vin c im t 600 n 700 im.
b) T l sinh vin c im thi trn 500 im.
c) Gi s nh trng mun xc nh im Toeic ti thiu sinh vin c
th ra trng vi t l 80%, tnh im Toeic ti thiu ny.
BI GII
Gi X l im thi Toeic ca sinh vin. Ta c: X N (, 2 ) vi = 560; = 78
a) T l sinh vin c im t 600 n 700 im l:
 700 

 600 

P (600 < X < 700) =

 600 560 
 700 560 

= (1, 79) (1, 28)

=
78
78
= 0, 4633 0, 3997 = 0, 0636 = 6, 36%
b) T l sinh vin c im thi trn 500 im l:

 500 

P (X > 500) = P (500 < X < +) = (+)

 500 560 
= 0, 5 (0, 77)
= (+)
78
= 0, 5 + (0, 77) = 0, 5 + 0, 2794 = 0, 7794 = 77, 94%
c) Gi a l mc im ti thiu m sinh vin cn phi t c.
Ta cn tm a sao cho P (X a) = 80% = 0, 8 
a 
V P (X a) = P (a X < +) = (+)

 a 560 
 560
a
= (+)
= 0, 5 +
 560 a  78
 560 a  78
tra bng 1
nn ta c 0, 5 +
= 0, 8
= 0, 3
=
(0, 85)
78
78
560 a
Suy ra
= 0, 85 hay a = 493, 7.
78
67

Bi 5. Mt cng ty kinh doanh mt hng A d nh s p dng 1 trong 2

phng n kinh doanh. Gi:
X1 (triu ng/thng) l li nhun thu c khi p dng phng n 1
X2 (triu ng/thng) l li nhun thu c khi p dng phng n 2
th
X1 N (140, 2500)
v
X2 N (200, 3600)

Nu bit rng: cng ty tn ti v pht trin th li nhun thu c t

mt hng A phi t t nht 80 triu ng/thng. Hy cho bit cng ty nn
p dng phng n no kinh doanh mt hng A? V sao?

BI GII
Ta cn tnh v so snh P (X1 80) vi P (X2 80).
V X1 N (140, 2500) nn
 80 
P (X1 > 80) = P (80 < X1 < +) = (+)

 80 140 
= 0, 5 (1, 2)
= (+)
50
= 0, 5 + (1, 2) = 0, 5 + 0, 3849 = 0, 8849 = 88, 49%
V X2 N (200, 3600) nn

 80 
P (X2 > 80) = P (80 < X2 < +) = (+)

 80 200 
= (+)
= 0, 5 (2)
60
= 0, 5 + (2) = 0, 5 + 0, 4772 = 0, 9772 = 97, 72%

So snh hai kt qu trn ta kt lun: cng ty nn p dng phng n 2. Bi v

khi , kh nng li nhn t c t nht 80 triu ng/thng cao hn so
vi phng n 1.

2.4.5

Xp x cc quy lut phn phi xc sut

Gi s X H(N, M, n) v n << N th ta c th xp x X B(n, p) vi

M
p=
.
N
Gi s X B(n, p):

Nu n ln, p nh (gn 0) th ta c th xp x X P () vi = np. Xp

x ny c hiu qu khi np 5 (hoc nq 5).
Nu n ln, p nh (khng qu gn 0 v 1) sao cho np > 5 (hoc nq > 5)

68

th ta c th xp x X N (, 2 ) vi = np; 2 = npq. Khi ,

P (X = k)
P (k1 X k2 )

1 k 
=

k 
k 
1
2

Gi tr ca hm , ln lt c tnh bng cch tra bng 2 v bng 1.

Bi 1.
a)
b)
c)

Cho X H(1000, 600, 5).

Cho X B(250; 0, 008).
Cho X H(10000, 4000, 200).

Tnh P (X 1)
Tnh P (X > 2)
Tnh P (X 100)

BI GII
a) X H(1000, 600, 5). Trc ht, ta nhn thy rng X = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 nn
tnh P (X 1) ta c hai cch phn tch:
Cch 1: P (X 1) = P (X = 1)+P (X = 2)+P (X = 3)+P (X = 4)+P (X = 5)
Cch 2: P (X 1) = 1 P (X < 1) = 1 P (X = 0)
Mt khc, n = 5 rt nh so vi N = 1000 nn ta c th xp x
X B(n; p) vi n = 5 v p =
Khi , P (X = k) = C5k .(0, 6)k .(0, 4)5k

600
= 0, 6
1000

, k = 0, 5

Vy P (X 1) = C51 .(0, 6)1 .(0, 4)4 + C52 .(0, 6)2 .(0, 4)3 + C53 .(0, 6)3 .(0, 4)2
+ C54 .(0, 6)4 .(0, 4)1 + C55 .(0, 6)5 .(0, 4)0 0, 98976
Hay theo cch 2 th P (X 1) = 1 C50 .(0, 6)0 .(0, 4)5 0, 98976
Ch . Nu tnh trc tip t gi thit X H(1000, 600, 5) (m khng xp x
quy lut nh thc) th ta c:
C k .C nk
C 0 .C 5
P (X 1) = 1 P (X = 0) = 1 M nN M = 1 6005 400 0, 989913
CN
C1000
b) X B(250; 0, 008). y, X = 0, 250 nn ta tnh P (X > 2) nh sau:
P (X > 2) = 1 P (X 2) = 1 P (X = 0) P (X = 1) P (X = 2)

Li c p = 0, 008 rt nh so vi n = 250 v np = 250.0, 008 = 2 < 5 nn ta c

th xp x X P () trong = np = 2
Khi , P (X = k) =

e2 .2k
, k = 0, 1, 2, . . .
k!
69

Vy P (X > 2) = 1

e2 .20
e2 .21
e2 .22

= 1 5e2 0, 3233236
0!
1!
2!

* Tng t nh trn, nu ta tnh trc tip t gi thit X B(250; 0, 008)

k
th t cng thc P (X = k) = C250
.(0, 008)k .(0, 992)250k , k = 0, 250, ta c:
P (X > 2) = 1 P (X 2) = 1 P (X = 0) P (X = 1) P (X = 2)
0
1
= 1 C250
.(0, 008)0 .(0, 992)250 C250
.(0, 008)1 .(0, 992)249
2
C250
.(0, 008)2 .(0, 992)248 0, 323322
c) X H(10000, 4000, 200). V n = 200 kh nh so vi N = 10000 nn ta
4000
= 0, 4 hay X B(200; 0, 4).
c th xp x X B(n, p), vi p =
10000
Li c p = 0, 4 rt nh so vi n = 200 v np = 200.0, 4 = 80 > 5 nn ta c th
xp x X N (, 2 ) trong , = np = 80; 2 = npq = 200.0, 6.0, 6 = 48.
 100 

0 

Khi , P (X 100) = P (0 X 100) =

 80 
 100 80 

= (2, 89) (11, 55)
=
48
48
= (2, 89) + (11, 55) = 0, 4981 + 0, 5 = 0, 9981
Bi 2. Mt l hng c 5000 sn phm, trong c 250 ph phm. Ly ngu
nhin 10 sn phm t l hng ny. Tnh xc sut trong 10 sn phm ly ra
c 2 ph phm.
BI GII
Gi X l s sn ph phm ly ra (trong s 10 sn phm ly ra). Ta cn tnh
P (X = 2)
Ta c X H(5000, 250, 10). V n = 10 rt nh so vi N = 5000 nn ta c th
250
xp x X B(n, p), p =
= 0, 05
5000
k
Vy X B(10; 0, 05). Khi , P (X = k) = C10
.(0, 05)k .(0, 95)10k , k = 0, 10
2
2
8
Suy ra, P (X = 2) = C10 .(0, 05) .(0, 95) 0, 074635
* Nu tnh trc tip t quy lut siu bi X H(5000, 250, 10) th ta c:
nk
k
2
8
CM
.CN
C250
.C4750
M
P (X = 2) =
0, 074568
=
n
10
CN
C5000

Bi 3. Cho bit xc sut trng ch trong mi ln bn ca 1 x th l 0,99.

X th bn 500 pht, tnh xc sut c t nht 2 pht bn trt.
70

BI GII
Gi X l s ln x th bn trt. Ta cn tnh P (X 2).
Theo gi thit th X B(500; 0, 01). V p = 0, 01 rt nh so vi n = 500 v
np = 500.0, 01 = 5 nn ta c th xp x X P (5). Khi ,
P (X = k) =

e5 .5k
vi k = 0, 1, 2, . . . , 500
k!

Vy P (X 2) = 1 P (X < 2) = 1 P (X = 0) P (X = 1)
e5 .50
e5 .51
=1

= 1 6e5 0, 95957
0!
1!
Bi 4. Theo thng k ca mt cng ty sn xut xe my th c 60% khch mua
sn phm ca h l ph n. Chn ngu nhin 200 ngi mua xe ca cng ty
ny. Tnh xc sut trong 200 ngi ny c t nht 140 ph n.
BI GII
Gi X l s ph n trong 200 ngi c chn. Ta cn tnh P (140 X 200).
Ta c X B(200; 0, 6).
V p = 0, 6 kh nh so vi n = 200 v np = 200.0, 6 = 120 > 5 nn ta c th
xp x X N (, 2 ) vi = np = 120; 2 = npq = 200.0, 6.0, 4 = 48.
Vy X N (120, 48). Suy ra,
 200 
 140 
P (140 X 200) =

 140 120 
 200 120 

=
48
48
= (11, 55) (2, 89) = 0, 5 0, 4981 = 0, 0019
Bi 5. T mt l hng c 1000 sn phm, trong c 10 ph phm. Chn
ngu nhin 20 sn phm kim tra. Tnh xc sut :
a) C t nht 2 ph phm.
b) C t 2 n 10 ph phm.
BI GII
Gi X l s ph phm chn c. Ta c: X H(1000, 10, 20)
Do n = 20 kh nh so vi N = 1000 nn ta c th xp x X B(n, p), trong
10
= 0, 0, 01.
n = 20, p =
1000
k
Khi , P (X = k) = C20
.(0, 01)k .(0, 99)20k , k = 0, 10
a) Ta cn tnh:
P (X 2) = 1 P (X < 2) = 1 P (X = 0) P (X = 1)
0
1
= 1 C20
.(0, 01)0 .(0, 99)20 C20
.(0, 01)1 .(0, 99)19 0, 0169
71

b) Ta cn tnh:
P (2 X 10) = P (X = 2) + P (X = 3) + . . . + P (X = 10)
2
3
= C20
.(0, 01)2 .(0, 99)18 + C20
.(0, 01)3 .(0, 99)17 + . . .
10
10
10
+ C20 .(0, 01) .(0, 99) 0, 0169
* rng, trong bi ton ny kt qu cu a) v cu b) bng nhau v
X = 0, 1, 2, . . . , 10.

2.5

Bi tp tng hp

Bi 1. Cho LNN ri rc X c bng phn phi xc sut:

1
0,15

X
p

2
0,25

3
0,4

4
0,2

a) Tm P (1 < X 2).

b) Tm k vng v phng sai ca X.

c) Tm hm phn phi xc sut ca X.
BI GII
a) Da vo bng PPXS:
P (1 < X 2) = P (X = 1) + P (X = 2) = 0, 15 + 0, 25 = 0, 4
b) K vng: EX =

4
X

xi .pi = 2, 65

i=1

Phng sai: DX =

4
X

x2i .pi (EX)2 = 7, 95 2, 652 = 0, 9275

i=1

0
, nu x 1

0, 15 , nu 1 < x 2
c) Hm phn phi xc sut: F (x) =
0, 4 , nu 2 < x 3

0, 4 , nu 3 < x 4

1
, nu x > 4

Bi 2. Cho LNN X ri rc c bng phn phi xc sut l:

X
p

0
a

0,1
0,2

0,3
b

72

0,4
0,2

0,7
0,1

a) Tm a, b sao cho EX = 0, 2.
b) Tm a, b sao cho DX = 0, 0503.
BI GII
a) Ta c EX =

5
X

xi .pi = 0, 3b + 0, 17

i=1

Theo gi thit, EX = 0, 2 nn 0, 3b + 0, 17 = 0, 2 b = 0, 1
Mt khc, theo tnh cht ca bng PPXS:
a + 0, 2 + b + 0, 2 + 0, 1 = 1 a + b = 0, 5
Vy a = 0, 4 v b = 0, 1.
5
X
x2i .pi (EX)2 = 0, 09b + 0, 083 (0, 3b + 0, 17)2
b) Ta c: DX =
i=1

= 0, 09b2 0, 012b + 0, 0541

M DX = 0, 0503 nn

0, 09b2 0, 012b + 0, 0541 = 0, 0503 9b2 + 1, 2b 0, 38 = 0

Vy b 0, 1494 v a = 0, 5 b 0, 3506.

Bi 3. Ngi qun l ca mt cng ty xem xt tnh trng hot ng ca cc

my trong cng ty ny. Da vo cc thng tin trong qu kh v bng kinh
nghim ca mnh, ngi qun l a ra bng phn phi xc sut ca s my
hng X trong tun nh sau:
X
p

0
0,1

1
0,24

2
0,42

3
0,16

4
0,08

a) Tm s my b hng trung bnh trong 1 tun v lch chun ca s my

b hng.
b) Chi ph thit hi do mi my b hng trong 1 tun l 3 triu ng. Tnh
chi ph thit hi do cc my b hng trung bnh ca cng ty ny trong
mt tun.
BI GII
a) S my hng trung bnh: EX =

5
X

xi .pi = 1, 88

i=1

Phng sai: DX =

5
X

x2i .pi (EX)2 = 4, 64 1, 882 = 1, 1056

i=1

Suy ra, lch chun: = DX = 1, 1056 0, 0515.

73

b) Gi Y (triu ng) l s tin thit hi do my b hng ca cng ty trong 1

tun. Ta c: Y = 3X.
Do , chi ph thit hi do cc my b hng trung bnh ca cng ty ny trong
mt tun l: EY = 3EX = 3.1, 88 = 5, 64 (triu ng).
Bi 4. C 3 kin hng: kin 1 cha 10 sn phm tt v 2 ph phm, kin 2
cha 9 sn phm tt v 3 ph phm, kin 3 cha 7 sn phm tt v 5 ph
phm. Cc sn phm ging ht nhau v kch thc v trng lng. Ly ngu
nhin mi kin hng 1 sn phm. Gi X l s ph phm c ly ra.
a) Lp bng phn phi xc sut ca X.
b) Tm M odX, M edX, k vng v phng sai ca X.
BI GII
a) Lp bng PPXS ca X:
Ta c: X = 0, 1, 2, 3.
Gi Ai : sn phm ly t kin hng i l ph phm, i = 1, 2, 3.
= {A1 , A2 , A3 } l h c lp
p dng cng thc nhn:
10 9 7
35
P (X = 0) = P (A1 .A2 .A3 ) = P (A1 ).P (A2 ).P (A3 ) =

=
12 12 12
96
P (X = 1) = P (A1 .A2 .A3 + A1 .A2 .A3 + A1 .A2 .A3 )
= P (A1 .A2 .A3 ) + P (A1 .A2 .A3 ) + P (A1 .A2 .A3 )
= P (A1 ).P (A2 ).P (A3 )+P (A1 ).P (A2 ).P (A3 )+P (A1 ).P (A2 ).P (A3 )
2 9 7
10 3 7
10 9 5
131
=

=
12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
288
5
2 3 5
P (X = 3) = P (A1 .A2 .A3 ) = P (A1 ).P (A2 ).P (A3 ) =

=
12 12 12
288
35 131
5
47
P (X = 2) = 1P (X = 0)P (X = 1)P (X = 3) = 1

=
96 288 288
288
Vy bng PPXS ca X l:
X

35
96

131
288

47
288

5
288

b) Da vo bng PPXS ta c: M odX = 1; M edX = 1

4
X
5
xi .pi = 0, 8333
K vng: EX =
6
i=1
 2
4
X
41
91
5
2
2
=
xi .pi (EX) =
Phng sai: DX =

0, 5684
72
6
72
i=1
74

Bi 5. C 3 kin hng: kin 1 cha 10 sn phm tt v 2 ph phm, kin 2

cha 9 sn phm tt v 3 ph phm, kin 3 cha 7 sn phm tt v 5 ph
phm. Cc sn phm ging ht nhau v kch thc v trng lng. Chn ngu
nhin mt kin hng, ri t ly ra 3 sn phm. Gi X l s sn phm tt
trong 3 sn phm ly ra.
a) Lp bng phn phi xc sut ca X.
b) Tm M odX, M edX, k vng v phng sai ca X.
BI GII
a) Lp bng PPXS ca X:
Ta c: X = 0, 1, 2, 3.
Gi Ai : chn c kin hng th i, i = 1, 2, 3.
1
Ta c P (A1 ) = P (A2 ) = P (A3 ) =
v {A1 , A2 , A3 } l h y v xung
3
khc.
p dng CTXSTP:
P (X = 0) = P (A1 ).P (X = 0|A1 ) + P (A2 ).P (X = 0|A2 ) + P (A3 ).P (X = 0|A3 )
1 C 0 .C 3
1
1 C 0 .C 3
1
= 0+ 93 3 + 73 5 =
3
3
C12
3
C12
60
P (X = 1) = P (A1 ).P (X = 1|A1 ) + P (A2 ).P (X = 1|A2 ) + P (A3 ).P (X = 1|A3 )
1 C 1 .C 2
1 C 1 .C 2
1 C 1 .C 2
107
= 10 3 2 + 9 3 3 + 7 3 5 =
3
C12
3
C12
3
C12
660
P (X = 2) = P (A1 ).P (X = 2|A1 ) + P (A2 ).P (X = 2|A2 ) + P (A3 ).P (X = 2|A3 )
2
1 C10
1 C92 .C31
1 C72 .C51
101
.C21
=
+
+
=
3
3
3
3
C12
3
C12
3
C12
220
P (X = 3) = P (A1 ).P (X = 3|A1 ) + P (A2 ).P (X = 3|A2 ) + P (A3 ).P (X = 3|A3 )
3
1 C10
1 C93 .C30
1 C73 .C50
239
.C20
=
+
+
=

3
3
3
3
C12
3
C12
3
C12
660
Vy bng PPXS ca X l:
X

1
60

107
660

101
220

239
660

b) Da vo bng PPXS ta c: M odX = 2; M edX = 2

4
X
13
2, 1667
xi .pi =
K vng: EX =
6
i=1
 2
4
X
223
13
347
2
2
=

0, 5631
xi .pi (EX) =
Phng sai: DX =
66
6
396
i=1
75

Bi 6. C hai chic bnh: mi bnh cha 10 bi, trong c 4 bi . Ly t bnh

I ra 2 bi b sang bnh II. Sau ly ngu nhin ng thi t bnh II ra 3 bi.
Gi X l s bi ly c t bnh II.
a) Tm bng phn phi xc sut ca X.
b) Tm k vng v phng sai ca X.
BI GII
a) Lp bng PPXS ca X:
Ta c: X = 0, 1, 2, 3.
Gi Ai : trong 2 sn phm ly t l hng I b vo l hng II c i sn phm
tt, i = 0, 1, 2.
= {A0 , A1 , A2 } l h y v xung khc
p dng CTXSTP:
P (X = k) = P (A0 ).P (X = k|A0 )+P (A1 ).P (X = k|A1 )+P (A2 ).P (X = k|A2 )
C40 .C62 C4k .C83k C41 .C61 C5k .C73k C42 .C60 C6k .C63k

, k = 0, 3
=
2
3
2
3
2
3
C10
C12
C10
C12
C10
C12
Vy bng PPXS ca X l:
X

7
55

2
5

46
165

7
165

b) Da vo bng PPXS ta c:
4
X
179
1, 0848
xi .pi =
K vng: EX =
165
i=1


2
313
119604
179
x2i .pi (EX)2 =
Phng sai: DX =
=

0, 7201
165
165
27225
i=1
4
X

Bi 7. Mt l hng c 14 sn phm tt v 5 ph phm. Chn ngu nhin ra 3

sn phm. Gi X l s sn phm tt trong 3 sn phm ly ra.
a) Lp bng phn phi xc sut ca X.
b) Tnh trung bnh s sn phm tt ly ra v phng sai ca X.
c) Cho Y = 9X + 12, tnh EY, V arY .
BI GII
a) Lp bng PPXS ca X:
Ta c: X = 0, 1, 2, 3.

k
C14
.C53k
Theo gi thit, X H(19, 14, 3) nn P (X = k) =
, k = 0, 3
3
C19

76

Bng PPXS ca X l:
X

10
969

140
969

455
969

364
969

b) Cch 1: Da vo bng PPXS

4
X

42
2, 2105
19
i=1
 2
4
X
308
560
42
2
2
xi .pi (EX) =
Phng sai: DX =
=

0, 5171
57
19
1083
i=1

Trung bnh s sn phm tt: EX =

xi .pi =

Cch 2: p dng quy lut phn phi siu bi X H(19, 14, 3)

42
14
=
2, 2105
Trung bnh s sn phm tt: EX = np = 3
19
19
N n
14 5 16
560
Phng sai: DX = n.p.q
=3

=
0, 5171
N 1
19 19 18
1083
c) V Y = 9X + 12 nn
606
42
+ 12 =
31, 8947
EY = 9EX + 12 = 9
19
19
15120
560
=
41, 8837
DY = 81DX = 81
1083
361

Bi 8. Mt l hng c 9 sn phm, trong c 6 sn phm loi I v 3 sn

phm loi II. Ln lt ly ngu nhin c hon li 3 sn phm t l hng ny.
Gi X l s sn phm loi I ly ra.
a) Lp bng phn phi xc sut ca X.
b) Tnh trung bnh s sn phm loi I trong 3 sn phm ly ra v V arX.
c) Ga s Y = 10X + V arX. Tnh EY, V arY .
BI GII
a) Lp bng PPXS ca X:
Ta c: X = 0, 1, 2, 3.

Theo gi thit, X B(3;

2
3)

nn P (X = k) =

Bng PPXS ca X l:

C3k

 k  3k
1
2

, k = 0, 3

3
3

1
27

2
9

4
9

8
27

b) Cch 1: Da vo bng PPXS

77

Trung bnh s sn phm tt: EX =

4
X

xi .pi = 2

i=1

Phng sai: varX =

4
X
i=1

x2i .pi (EX)2 =

14
2
22 = 0, 6667
3
3

Cch 2: p dng quy lut phn phi nh thc X B(3; 32 )

2
Trung bnh s sn phm tt: EX = np = 3 = 2
3
2
2 1
Phng sai: V arX = n.p.q = 3 = 0, 6667
3 3
3
2
c) V Y = 10X + V arX = 10X + nn
3
2
62
2
20, 6667
EY = 10EX + = 10.2 + =
3
3
3
200
2
66, 6667
V arY = 100V arX = 100 =
3
3
Bi 9. Mt kin hng c 6 sn phm loi I v 4 sn phm loi II. Tin li khi
bn 1 sn phm loi I l 50000 ng, loi II l 30000 ng. Ly ngu nhin 3
sn phm bn.
a) Tm lut phn phi xc sut ca s tin li thu c do bn 3 sn phm
trn.
b) Tm s tin li trung bnh khi bn 3 sn phm trn.
BI GII
Gi X l s sn phm loi I trong 3 sn phm ly ra. Ta c X H(10, 6, 3)
Gi Y l s tin li thu c th
Y = 50000X + 30000(3 X) = 20000X + 90000
a) Ta c X = 0, 1, 2, 3 nn Y = 90000, 110000, 130000, 150000
C60 .C43
1
P (Y = 90000) = P (X = 0) =
=
3
C10
30
1
2
3
C .C
P (Y = 11000) = P (X = 1) = 6 3 4 =
C10
10
2
1
C .C
1
P (Y = 13000) = P (X = 2) = 6 3 4 =
C10
2
3
0
C .C
1
P (Y = 15000) = P (X = 3) = 6 3 4 =
C10
6
Bng PPXS ca Y l:

78

Y (ng)

90000

110000

130000

150000

1
30

3
10

1
2

1
6

b) Cch 1: Da vo bng PPXS, s tin li trung bnh

EY =

4
X
i=1

yi .pi = 90000

1
1
+ . . . + 150000 = 126000
30
6

9
6
= = 1, 8
10
5
M Y = 20000X + 90000 nn s tin li trung bnh

Cch 2: V X H(10, 6, 3) nn EX = np = 3

EY = 20000EX + 90000 = 20000.1, 8 + 90000 = 126000

Bi 10. Cho hm s f (x) =

x3
4

,
,

khi x (0, 2)

khi x
/ (0, 2)

a) Chng minh rng f (x) l hm mt xc sut ca LNN lin tc X

no .
b) Tm M odX.
c) Tm P ( 32 < X < 25 ).
d) Tm k vng v phng sai ca X.
BI GII
a) Nhn xt: f (x) 0, x
"
#2

Z 2
Z +
x3
x4
x2
f (x)dx =
x
Ta c:
dx =

=1
4
2
16
0

Vy f (x) l hm mt xc sut ca LNN lin tc X no .

b) Nhn thy M odX (0, 2)

2
3
3x
2
x3
nn f (x) = 1
= 0 x =
Vi x (0, 2) th f (x) = x
4
4
3

2 3

/ (0, 2) nn ta loi gi tr ny.

V
3

3x
suy ra f ( 2 3 3 ) < 0
Mt khc, f (x) =
2

2 3
2 3
hay M odX =
.
Vy hm s f (x) t cc i ti
3
3

79

c) P ( 32 < X < 25 ) =

5
2

f (x)dx =
3
2

2
3
2

"
#2


2
4
3
x
x
x
dx =

x
4
2
16 3

207
49
=1
=
0, 1914
256
256


Z 2
Z 2 
Z +
4
x
x3
x2
dx =
dx
x x
xf (x)dx =
d) K vng: EX =
4
4
0
0

"
#2
3
5
x
x
16
=

1, 0667
=
3
20
15
0

 2
Z 2 
Z +
3
x
16
x2 x
x2 f (x)dx (EX)2 =
Phng sai: DX =
dx
4
15

#2
"0

Z 2
256
x4
x6
256
x5
dx
=

x3
=
4
225
4
24
225
0
0
4 256
44
=
=
0, 1956
3 225
225
Bi 11. Cho LNN X lin tc c hm mt xc sut dng:

a cos x , khi |x| 2
f (x) =
0
, khi |x| > 2
a) Xc nh hng s a.
b) Tm k vng v phng sai ca X.
c) Tm hm phn phi xc sut ca X.
d) Tnh xc sut P (0 < X
BI GII
a) Ta vit li: f (x) =
Z

4 ),

a cos x ,

P ( 3
4 X



khi x 2 , 2


khi x
/ 2 , 2

f (x)dx = 1
Ta tm a sao cho


 2
Z 2
Z +
f (x)dx =
Ta c
a cos xdx = a sin x

Vy 2a = 1 hay a =

b) K vng: EX =
du tch phn l)

1
.
2
Z

3 ).

= 2a

1
xf (x)dx =
2

80

x cos xdx = 0 (v hm s di

Phng sai: DX =

1
x2 f (x)dx (EX)2 =
2

x2 cos xdx 0

"
#
1 2
x sin x + 2x cos x 2 sin x
=
=
2

0
,

1
c) Hm phn phi xc sut: F (x) =
(sin x + 1) ,

2
1
,

2 8
0, 4674
4
nu x 2

nu

nu x >

<x

d) Cch 1: Tnh trc tip


 4
Z
Z 4
1 4
1
2

f (x)dx =
cos xdx =
sin x
=
P (0 < X 4 ) =
2 0
2
4
0

 0  3
Z 3
Z 3
3+2
1
1
3

P ( 4 X 3 ) =
f (x)dx =
cos xdx =
=
sin x
2 2
2
4
3

4
2

Cch 2: Da vo kt qu cu c)

1


2
1

=
F (0) =
sin + 1
sin 0 + 1 =
P (0 < X
2
4
2
4

1

3
+
2

3
P ( 3
4 X 3 ) = F ( 3 ) F ( 4 ) = 2 sin 3 + 1 0 =
4

4)

F ( 4 )

Bi 12. Gi X l tui th ca con ngi trong mt vng no . Mt cng

trnh nghin cu cho bit hm mt xc sut ca X l:
 2
cx (100 x)2 , khi x [0, 100]
f (x) =
0
, khi x
/ [0, 100]
a) Xc nh hng s c.
b) Tm trung bnh v phng sai ca X.
c) Tm xc sut mt ngi c tui th t 60 tui tr ln.
d) Tnh xc sut mt ngi c tui th trn 60 tui, bit rng hin nay
ngi ny 50 tui.

BI GII

f (x)dx = 1
a) f (x) l hm mt xc sut khi v ch khi

Z 100
Z 100
Z +
2
2
(104 x2 200x3 + x4 )dx
cx (100 x) dx = c
f (x)dx =
M
0

0 4 3

5 100
10 x
109
x
4
=c
=
50x +
c
3
5 0
3
109 c
Vy
= 1 hay c = 3.109 .
3
81

b) K vng: EX =

100

x3 (100 x)2 dx
xf (x)dx = 3.10
0

Z 100
(104 x3 200x4 + x5 )dx
= 3.109
0
100
x6
9
4
5
= 3.10
2500x 40x +
= 50
6 0
Z 100
Z +
2
2
9
x4 (100x)2 dx502
x f (x)dx(EX) = 3.10
Phng sai: DX =
0

Z 100
(104 x4 200x5 + x6 )dx 2500
= 3.109
0
100
100x6
2500
x7
5
9
= 3.10
2000x
2500 =
+
3
7 0
7
9

c) Xc sut mt ngi c tui th t 60 tr ln:

Z 100
Z 100
x2 (100 x)2 dx
f (x)dx = 3.109
P (60 X 100) =
60
60
Z 100
(104 x2 200x3 + x4 )dx
= 3.109
 60 4 3

5 100
10
x
x
= 3.109
= 1 0, 68256 = 0, 31744
50x4 +
3
5 60
P ((X 60)(X 50))
P (X 60)
d) Ta cn tnh: P (X 60|X 50) =
=
P (X 50)
P (X 50)
Theo cu c), P (X 60) = 0, 31744
Z 100
Z 100
9
x2 (100 x)2 dx
f (x)dx = 3.10
Tng t, P (50 X 100) =
50
Z 100 50
(104 x2 200x3 + x4 )dx
= 3.109
 50 4 3
100
x5
9 10 x
4
= 3.10
= 1 0, 5 = 0, 5
50x +
3
5 50
0, 31744
Vy P (X 60|X 50) =
= 0, 63488
0, 5

Bi 13. Thi gian hc rnh ngh sa tivi ca mt ngi l LNN X (nm)

c hm mt xc sut l
(
9 2 1
x +
, khi x (0, 2)
f (x) =
40
5
0
, khi x
/ (0, 2)
a) Tnh xc sut mt ngi hc rnh ngh sa tivi trc 1 nm ri.

b) Tnh E(13X + 5).

82

c) Tnh E(X 2 ).
d) Tm phng sai ca X.
BI GII
a) Xc sut mt ngi hc rnh ngh sa tivi trc 1 nm ri:

Z 1,5 
Z 1,5
9 2 1
x +
dx
f (x)dx =
P (0 < X 1, 5) =
40
5
0
0
"
#1,5
3x3
x
177
=
+
= 0, 553125
=
40
5
320
0

b) Ta c: E(13X + 5) = 13EX + 5

Z 2 
Z +
9 2 1
x
xf (x)dx =
M EX =
x +
dx
40
5
0

#2
"

Z 2
4
2
9 3 1
9x
x
13
=
x + x dx =
+
= 1, 3
=
40
5
160 10
10
0
0
Suy ra E(13X + 5) = 13.1, 3 + 5 = 21, 9

Z 2 
Z +
9 2 1
2
2
2
x +
dx
x
x f (x)dx =
c) E(X ) =
40
5
0

#2
"

Z 2
9 4 1 2
9x5
x3
148
=
x + x dx =
+
1, 9733
=
40
5
200 15
75
0

Z0 2 
Z +
9 2 1
2
2
2
x
x +
x f (x)dx (EX) =
d) Phng sai: DX =
dx 1, 32
40
5
0

Z
2
9 4 1 2
x + x dx 1, 69
=
40
5
0
#2
"
x3
17
9x5
+
0, 2833
1, 69 =
=
200 15
63
0

Bi 14. Mt thng mn c 100 tri, trong c 10 tri b h. Mt nam sinh

vin n mua 10 tri v nh ngi bn la dm. Ngi bn bo mn rt ngon
v ly ngu nhin nhng tri mn bn. Gi X l s tri mn h chn phi.
a) Tnh xc sut khng c tri mn no b h.
b) Tm trung bnh s tri mn b h m sinh vin ny mua phi.
c) Tm phng sai DX.
BI GII

10k
k
C10
.C90
a) Theo gi thit, X H(100, 10, 10) nn P (X = k) =
, k = 0, 10
10
C100

83

0
10
C10
.C90
0, 3305
Xc sut khng c tri mn no b h: P (X = 0) =
10
C100
b) Trung bnh s tri mn b h m sinh vin ny mua phi:

10
=1
100
10 90 90
9
N n
= 10

=
0, 8182
c) Phng sai: DX = npq
N 1
100 100 99
11
EX = np = 10

Bi 15. Trong mt l hng c 800 sn phm loi I v 200 sn phm loi II.
Ly ngu nhin ng thi 3 sn phm t l hng ny. Gi X l s sn phm
loi I ly c.
a) Tm quy lut phn phi xc sut ca X.
b) Tnh EX v DX.
c) Tnh xc sut ly c t nht 1 sn phm loi I.
BI GII
a) X tun theo quy lut siu bi: X H(1000, 800, 3).
800
b) K vng: EX = np = 3
= 2, 4
1000
N n
800 200 997
3988
Phng sai: DX = npq
=3

=
0, 47904
N 1
1000 1000 999
8325
c) Ta cn tnh P (X 1). Ta c th phn tch theo mt trong cc cch sau:
3k
k
C800
.C200
, k = 0, 3
Cch 1: Vi X H(1000, 800, 3) th P (X = k) =
3
C1000
Cho ta: P (X 1) = P (X = 1) + P (X = 2) + P (X = 3)
1
2
2
1
3
0
C800
.C200
C800
.C200
C800
.C200
=
+
+
0, 9921
3
3
3
C1000
C1000
C1000
Cch 2: Tng t nh cch 1, nhng ta p dng cng thc xc sut ca
hai bin c i lp.
C 0 .C 3
P (X 1) = 1 P (X < 1) = 1 P (X = 0) = 1 8003 200 0, 9921
C1000
Cch 3: V X H(1000, 800, 3) m n = 3 rt nh so vi N = 1000 v
M
800
p=
=
= 0, 8 nn ta c th xp x X B(3; 0, 8). Khi ,
N
1000
P (X = k) = C3k .(0, 8)k .(0, 2)3k , k = 0, 3
Cho ta, P (X 1) = P (X = 1) + P (X = 2) + P (X = 3) = C31 .(0, 8)1 .(0, 2)2
+ C32 .(0, 8)2 .(0, 2)1 + C33 .(0, 8)3 .(0, 2)0 = 0, 992

84

Hoc P (X 1) = 1P (X < 1) = 1P (X = 0) = 1C30 .(0, 8)0 .(0, 2)3 = 0, 992

Bi 16. Trong mt l hng c 800 sn phm loi I v 200 sn phm loi II.
Ln lt ly ngu nhin c hon li 3 sn phm t l hng ny. Gi X l s
sn phm loi I ly c.
a) Tm quy lut phn phi xc sut ca X.
b) Tnh E(5X + DX) v D(6X + EX).
c) Tnh xc sut ly c nhiu nht 2 sn phm loi I.
BI GII
a) V ly theo phng thc c hon li nn X tun theo quy lut nh thc
800
X B(n, p) vi n = 3 v p =
= 0, 8. Vy X B(3; 0, 8).
1000
b) Do X B(3; 0, 8) nn
EX = np = 3.0, 8 = 2, 4 v DX = npq = 3.0, 8.0, 2 = 0, 48
T ta c:
E(5X + DX) = E(5X + 0, 48) = 5EX + 0, 48 = 5.2, 4 + 0, 48 = 12, 48
D(6X + EX) = D(6X + 2, 4) = 36DX = 36.0, 48 = 17, 28
c) Ta c: X B(3; 0, 8) nn P (X = k) = C3k .(0, 8)k .(0, 2)3k , k = 0, 3
Ta cn tnh P (X 2)
Cch 1: P (X 2) = P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) + P (X = 2) = C30 .(0, 8)0 .(0, 2)3
61
+ C31 .(0, 8)1 .(0, 2)2 + C32 .(0, 8)2 .(0, 2)1 =
= 0, 488
125
Cch 2: P (X 2) = 1 P (X > 2) = 1 P (X = 3)
= 1 C33 .(0, 8)3 .(0, 2)0 = 1 0, 512 = 0, 448
Bi 17. Trong mt l hng c 800 sn phm loi I v 200 sn phm loi II.
Ln lt ly ngu nhin khng hon li 3 sn phm t l hng ny. Gi X l
s sn phm loi I ly c.
a) Tm quy lut phn phi xc sut ca X.
b) Tnh E(X + 10) v D(5X + 2).
BI GII
a) Ta i lp bng PPXS ca X
X = 0, 1, 2, 3
Tnh cc xc sut:
Gi Ai : bin c sn phm ly ra ln th i l sn phm loi I, i = 1, 2, 3
85

P (X = 0) = P (A1 .A2 .A3 ) = P (A1 ).P (A2 |A1 ).P (A3 |A1 .A2 )
200 199 198
=

0, 0079
1000 999 998
P (X = 1) = P (A1 .A1 .A2 + A1 .A2 .A3 + A1 .A2 .A3 )
= P (A1 .A1 .A2 ) + P (A1 .A2 .A3 ) + P (A1 .A2 .A3 )
= P (A1 ).P (A2 |A1 ).P (A3 |A1 .A2 ) + P (A1 ).P (A2 |A1 ).P (A3 |A1 .A2 )
+ P (A1 ).P (A2 |A1 ).P (A3 |A1 .A2 )
800 200 199
200 800 199
200 199 800
=

0, 0958
1000 999 998 1000 999 998 1000 999 998
P (X = 3) = P (A1 .A2 .A3 ) = P (A1 ).P (A2 |A1 ).P (A3 |A1 .A2 )
800 799 798

0, 5116
=
1000 999 998
P (X = 2) = 1 P (X = 0) P (X = 1) P (X = 3) 0, 3847
Bng PPXS ca X l:
X

0, 0079

0, 0958

0, 3847

0, 5116

b) Da vo bng PPXS, ta c:
EX =

4
X

xi .pi = 2, 4;

DX =

4
X
i=1

i=1

x2i .pi (EX)2 = 0, 4762

Cho ta: E(X + 10) = EX + 10 = 2, 4 + 10 = 12, 4

D(5X + 2) = 25DX = 25.0, 4762 = 11, 905
Bi 18. Mt kin hng c 1000 sn phm, trong c 200 sn phm loi II.
Mt ngi ly ngu nhin t kin hng ra 10 sn phm kim tra. Tnh xc
sut trong 10 sn phm ly ra:
a) C 6 sn phm loi II.
b) Khng qu 3 sn phm loi II.
c) Nhiu hn 2 sn phm loi II.
BI GII
Gi X l s sn phm loi II trong 10 sn phm ly ra. Ta c X H(1000, 200, 10).
V n = 10 kh nh so vi N = 1000 nn ta c th xp x X B(10; 0, 2).
Khi ,
k
P (X = k) = C10
.(0, 2)k .(0, 8)10k , k = 0, 10
6
a) Ta cn tnh: P (X = 6) = C10
.(0, 2)6 .(0, 8)4 0, 0055
b) Xc sut c khng qu 3 sn phm loi II:

86

P (X 3) = P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) + P (X = 2) + P (X = 3)
0
1
2
= C10
.(0, 2)0 .(0, 8)10 + C10
.(0, 2)1 .(0, 8)9 + C10
.(0, 2)2 .(0, 8)8
3
+ C10
.(0, 2)3 .(0, 8)7 0, 8791
c) Xc sut c nhiu hn 2 sn phm loi II:
P (X > 2) = 1 P (X 2) = 1 P (X = 0) P (X = 1) P (X = 2)
0
1
2
= 1 C10
.(0, 2)0 .(0, 8)10 C10
.(0, 2)1 .(0, 8)9 C10
.(0, 2)2 .(0, 8)8
0, 3222
Ch . Nu ta p dng trc tip X H(1000, 200, 10) th
10k
k
C200
.C800
, k = 0, 10
P (X = k) =
10
C1000

Khi , ta c kt qu:
a) P (X = 6) 0, 0053

b) P (X 3) 0, 8802

c) P (X > 2) 0, 3219

Bi 19. C 3 l hng: mi l c 1000 sn phm. T l sn phm loi II trong

tng l hng ln lt l 10%, 20%, 30%. Mt ngi mua ly ngu nhin t mi
l hng ra 10 sn phm kim tra. Ngi ny tha thun rng: nu l hng
no m trong 10 sn phm ly ra c khng qu 2 sn phm loi II th mua l
hng . Tm xc sut c t nht mt l hng c mua.
BI GII
Gi X l s l hng c mua. Ta cn tnh P (X 1) = 1 P (X = 0)
Gi Ai l bin c l hng th i c mua th {A1 , A2 , A3 } l h c lp ton
phn. ng thi, ta c: P (X = 0) = P (A1 .A2 .A3 ) = P (A1 ).P (A2 ).P (A3 )
Gi Y l s sn phm loi II trong 10 sn phm ly ra t l hng th nht.
V s lng sn phm trong mi l hng kh ln nn theo gi thit, ta suy ra:
Y B(10; 0, 1). Khi ,
P (A1 ) = P (Y 2) = P (Y = 0) + P (Y = 1) + P (Y = 2)
0
1
2
= C10
.(0, 1)0 .(0, 9)10 + C10
.(0, 1)1 .(0, 9)9 + C10
.(0, 1)2 .(0, 9)8 0, 9298
Tng t nh trn, Gi Z l s sn phm loi II trong 10 sn phm ly ra t
l hng th hai th Z B(10; 0, 2) v
P (A2 ) = P (Z 2) = P (Z = 0) + P (Z = 1) + P (Z = 2)
0
1
2
= C10
.(0, 2)0 .(0, 8)10 + C10
.(0, 2)1 .(0, 8)9 + C10
.(0, 2)2 .(0, 8)8 0, 6778
Gi T l s sn phm loi II trong 10 sn phm ly ra t l hng th ba
th T B(10; 0, 3) v
P (A3 ) = P (T 2) = P (T = 0) + P (T = 1) + P (T = 2)
87

0
1
2
= C10
.(0, 3)0 .(0, 7)10 + C10
.(0, 3)1 .(0, 7)9 + C10
.(0, 3)2 .(0, 7)8 0, 3828

Do , P (X = 0) = (1 0, 9298).(1 0, 6778).(1 0, 3828) = 0, 01396

Vy xc sut c t nht mt l hng c mua l:
P (X 1) = 1 P (X = 0) = 1 0, 01396 = 0, 98604
Bi 20. Gi X l s ln mt nht xut hin sau 3 ln tung mt con xc xc.
a) Lp bng phn phi xc sut ca X.
b) Tm xc sut c t nht mt ln c mt nht.
c) Tnh xc sut c ti a 2 ln c mt nht.
d) Tnh EX, DX.
BI GII
a) Ta c X = 0, 1, 2, 3
Theo gi thit, X B(3,

1
6)

nn P (X = k) =

Bng PPXS ca X l:

C3k

 k  3k
1
5

, k = 0, 3
6
6

125
216

25
72

5
72

1
216

b) Xc sut c t nht 1 ln c mt nht l:

 0  3
1
5
91
0
P (X 1) = 1 P (X = 0) = 1 C3

=
6
6
216
c) Xc sut c ti a 2 ln c mt nht l:
 3  0
1
5
215
3
P (X 2) = 1 P (X = 3) = 1 C3

=
6
6
216
1
d) V X B(3, 6 ) nn
1
1
EX = np = 3 = = 0, 5
6
2
5
1 5
0, 4167
DX = npq = 3 =
6 6
12
Ch . Ta c th da vo bng PPXS tnh nh sau:
4
X

1
xi .pi = ;
EX =
2
i=1

DX =

4
X
i=1

x2i .pi (EX)2 =

5
12

Bi 21. Mt gia nh c 10 ngi con. Gi s xc sut sinh con trai, con gi

trong mi ln sinh l bng nhau. Tnh xc sut:
88

a) Khng c con trai.

b) C 5 con trai v 5 con gi.
c) S con trai t hn s con gi.
BI GII
Gi X l s con trai trong s 10 ngi con th X B(10; 0, 5). Ta c:
k
P (X = k) = C10
.(0, 5)k .(0, 5)10k ,

k = 0, 10

a) Xc sut khng c con trai:

0
P (X = 0) = C10
.(0, 5)0 .(0, 5)10 =

1
0, 0098
1024

b) Xc sut c 5 con trai v 5 con gi:

5
P (X = 5) = C10
.(0, 5)5 .(0, 5)5 =

63
0, 2461
256

c) Xc sut s con trai t hn s con gi:

P (X < 5) = P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) + P (X = 2) + P (X = 3) + P (X = 4)
0
1
4
= C10
.(0, 5)0 .(0, 5)10 + C10
.(0, 5)1 .(0, 5)9 + . . . + C10
.(0, 5)4 .(0, 5)6
193
=
0, 37695
512
Bi 22. Mt ngi nui 100 con g mi . Xc sut 1 con g trng
trong ngy l 60%.
a) Tm s trng g trung bnh thu c trong ngy.
b) Nu mun trung bnh mi ngy thu c 120 trng g th cn nui bao
nhiu con g?
BI GII
Gi X l s trng g thu c trong ngy. Ta c: X B(100; 0, 6).
a) S trng g trung bnh thu c trong ngy: EX = np = 100.0, 6 = 60.
b) Gi n l s con g mi cn nui th X B(n; 0, 6).
= EX = np = 0, 6n
Do , mun trung bnh mi ngy thu c 120 trng g th 0, 6n = 120 hay
n = 200.
Bi 23. Mt my sn xut ln lt tng sn phm vi xc sut c mt ph
phm l 2%. Cho my sn xut ra 15 sn phm.
a) Tnh xc sut trong 15 sn phm sn xut ra c ng 3 ph phm.
89

b) S ph phm c kh nng cao nht c sn xut ra l bao nhiu?

c) Tm s sn phm tt trung bnh trong 15 sn phm c sn xut ra.
BI GII
Gi X l s ph phm trong 15 sn phm c sn xut ra.
Ta c X B(15; 0, 02)
3
a) Ta cn tnh: P (X = 3) = Cn3 .p3 .q n3 = C15
.(0, 02)3 .(0, 98)12 0, 0029
b) S ph phm c kh nng cao nht c sn xut ra l M odX
V np q M odX np + p 0, 68 M odX 0, 32
nn suy ra M odX = 0.
c) Gi Y l s sn phm tt trong 15 sn phm th Y B(15; 0, 98)
Do , s sn phm tt trung bnh trong 15 sn phm c sn xut ra:
EY = np = 15.0, 98 = 14, 7
Bi 24. Nh my dt mun tuyn dng ngi bit rnh v mt loi si. Mt
ngi c th phn bit si tht hay gi vi xc sut ng l 80%, xin d tuyn.
Gim c nhn s th thch ngi ny 7 ln: mi ln ng em ra 2 loi si,
trong c 1 loi si tht. Nu ngi d tuyn ni ng t nht 6 ln th s
c tuyn dng. Tnh xc sut ngi ny c tuyn dng.
BI GII
Gi X l s ln ngi d tuyn tr li ng trong 7 ln th thch th xc sut
ngi ny c tuyn dng chnh l P (X 6) = P (X = 6) + P (X = 7)
Mt khc, ta c X B(7, p) vi p l xc sut ngi ny tr li ng trong mi
ln th thch.
Theo gi thit p = 0, 8. Vy X B(7; 0, 8)
Vy P (X 7) = C76 .(0, 8)6 .(0, 2)1 + C77 .(0, 8)7 .(0, 2)0 = 0, 5767168 0, 5767
Bi 25. mt tng i in thoi, cc c in thoi gi n xut hin ngu
nhin, c lp vi nhau v trung bnh c 2 cuc gi n trong 1 pht. Tm xc
sut :
a) C ng 5 c in thoi gi n trong 2 pht.
b) Khng c c in thoi no gi n trong 30 giy.
c) C t nht 1 c in thoi gi n trong 10 giy.
BI GII
a) Gi X l s cuc in thoi gi n trong 2 pht = X P (1 ) vi 1 l
trung bnh s cuc in thoi gi n trong 2 pht.
90

Theo gi thit, 1 pht c trung bnh 2 cuc gi

= 2 pht c trung bnh 1 cuc gi
2.2
Cho ta, 1 =
=4
1
Suy ra X P (4)
e4 .45
128e4
e1 .51
=
=
0, 1563
Vy P (X = 5) =
5!
5!
15
b) Gi Y l s cuc in thoi gi n trong 30 giy ( 0,5 pht)
0, 5.2
= Y P (2 ) vi 2 =
=1
1
e2 .02
e1 .10
Vy P (Y = 0) =
=
= e1 0, 3679
0!
0!
1
c) Gi Z l s cuc in thoi gi n trong 10 giy ( pht)
6
2. 16
1
=
= Z P (3 ) vi 3 =
1
3

0
1
e 3 . 13
1
e3 .03
Vy P (Z 1) = 1 P (Z = 0) = 1
= 1
= e 3 0, 2835
0!
0!
Bi 26. Quan st thy trung bnh c 1 pht th c 2 t qua trm thu ph.
Tnh xc sut:
a) C 5 t i qua trm thu ph trong 3 pht.
b) C nhiu hn 1 t i qua trm thu ph trong 30 giy.
BI GII
a) Gi X l s t i qua trm thu ph trong 3 pht = X P (1 ) vi 1 l
trung bnh s t i qua trm thu ph trong 3 pht.
Theo gi thit, 1 pht c trung bnh 2 t qua trm thu ph
= 3 pht c trung bnh 1 t qua trm thu ph
3.2
=6
Cho ta, 1 =
1
Suy ra X P (6)
e1 .51
e6 .65
324e6
Vy P (X = 5) =
=
=
0, 1606
5!
5!
5
b) Gi Y l s t i qua trm thu ph trong 30 giy ( 0,5 pht)
0, 5.2
=1
= X P (2 ) vi 2 =
1
e2 .02
e2 .12
Vy P (Y > 1) = 1 P (Y = 0) P (Y = 1) = 1

0!
1!
e1 .11
e1 .10

= 1 2e1 0, 2642
=1
0!
1!
91

Bi 27. Tui th ca mt loi bng n (n v tnh: gi) l LNN c phn

phi chun vi trung bnh 900 gi v lch chun l 100 gi. Tnh t l bng
n c tui th trong khong 775 gi n 975 gi.
BI GII
Gi X l tui th ca bng n.
Theo gi thit, X N (; 2 ) vi = 900 gi v = 100 gi.
Ta cn tnh P (775 X 975) 


975
775
P (775 X 975) =





775 900
975 900

= (0, 75) (1, 25)

=
100
100
= (0, 75) + (1, 25) = 0, 2734 + 0, 3944 = 0, 6678
Bi 28. Ch s IQ (intelligence quotient) ca nhng ngi trong mt cu lc
b l LNN xp x phn phi chun vi trung bnh = 105 v lch chun
= 20. Chn ngu nhin mt ngi trong nhm ny. Tnh xc sut ngi
c chn:
a) C ch s IQ t nht bng 50.
b) C ch s IQ nhiu nht l 80.
c) C ch s IQ trong khong t 95 n 125.
BI GII
Gi X l ch s IQ ca nhng ngi trong cu lc b.
Theo gi thit, X N (105, 202 )
a) Ta cn tnh P (X 50)


50
P (X 50) = P (50 X +) = (+)



50 105
= 0, 5
= 0, 5 (2, 75)
20
= 0, 5 + (2, 75) = 0, 5 + 0, 4970 = 0, 997
b) Ta cn tnh P (X 80) 


0
80

P (0 X 80) =





80 105
0 105
=

= (1, 25) (5, 25)

20
20
= (1, 25) + (5, 25) = 0, 3944 + 0, 5 = 0, 1056
c) Ta cn tnh P (95 X 125)


95
125

P (95 X 125) =

92




125 105
95 105
=

= (1) (0, 5)
20
20
= (1) + (0, 5) = 0, 3413 + 0, 1915 = 0, 5328
Bi 29. Tui th ca mt loi sn phm l LNN c phn phi chun vi
trung bnh l 11 nm v lch chun l 2 nm.
a) Nu quy nh thi gian bo hnh l 10 nm th t l sn phm phi bo
hnh l bao nhiu?
b) Nu mun t l sn phm phi bo hnh l 10% th phi quy nh thi
gian bo hnh l bao nhiu?
BI GII
Gi X (nm) l tui th ca loi sn phm ny. Ta c X N (11, 4)
a) V quy nh thi gian bo hnh l 10 nm nn t l sn phm phi bo hnh
l t l sn phm ctui thkhng
 qu 10 nm, tc l P (0 X 10)
10
0
P (0 X 10) =

 


10 11
0 11
=

= (0, 5) (5, 5)
2
2
= (0, 5) + (5, 5) = 0, 1915 + 0, 5 = 0, 3085
b) Gi a l thi gian
Ta

 cn tm
 a sao cho P (0 X a) = 10%
 bo hnh.
0
a

P (0 X a) =






a 11
0 11
a 11
=

=
(5, 5)
2
2
2




a 11
a 11
+ (5, 5) =
+ 0, 5
=
2
2




a 11
a 11
Suy ra
+ 0, 5 = 0, 1
= 0, 4
2
 2

11 a
11 a

= 0, 4 = (1, 29)
= 1, 29
2
2
Vy a = 8, 42 (nm)
Bi 30. Mt loi chi tit my c coi l t tiu chun nu ng knh ca
n sai lch khng qu 0,33mm v gi tr tuyt i so vi ng knh thit k.
Cho bit ng knh ca loi chi tit my ny l LNN phn phi theo quy
lut chun, vi lch tiu chun l 0,3mm.
a) Tm xc sut sn xut c mt chi tit my t tiu chun.
b) Tm trung bnh s chi tit t tiu chun khi sn xut 100 chi tit.
93

BI GII
Gi X l ng knh ca chi tit my. Theo gi thit, X N (, 2 ) vi = 0, 3
a) Xc sut sn xut c 1 chi tit my t tiu chun l P (|X | 0, 33)
P (|X | 0, 33) = P
(0, 33 X 
0, 33)
 = P ( 0, 33
 X + 0, 33)
( + 0, 33)
( 0, 33)
=


 

0, 33
0, 33
=

= (1, 1) (1, 1)
0, 3
0, 3
= (1, 1) + (1, 1) = 2(1, 1) = 2.0, 3643 = 0, 7286
b) Gi Y l s chi tit t tiu chun khi sn xut 100 chi tit.
Ta c Y B(n, p) vi n = 100 v p = 0, 7286
Trung bnh s chi tit t tiu chun khi sn xut 100 chi tit l
EX = np = 100.0, 7286 = 72, 86
Bi 31. Bn 400 pht n vo mc tiu mt cch c lp. Xc sut trng ch
mi ln bn l nh nhau v bng 0,85. Tnh xc sut c t 315 n 335
ln bn trng ch.
BI GII
Gi X l s pht n trng mc tiu th X B(400; 0, 85)
V p = 0, 85 kh nh so vi n = 400 v np = 400.0, 85 = 340 > 5 nn ta c th
xp x X N (, 2 ) vi = np = 340 v 2 = npq = 400.0, 85.0, 15 = 51
Ta cn tnh P (315 X 335) 


335
315
P (315 X 335) =





335 340
315 340

= (0, 7) (3, 5)
51
51
= (0, 7) + (3, 5) = 0, 2580 + 0, 4998 = 0, 2418
Bi 32. Mt nh my sn xut 100000 sn phm, trong c 30000 sn phm
loi II cn li l sn phm loi I. KCS n kim tra v ln lt ly ngu nhin
ra 500 sn phm th (theo phng thc hon li).
a) Tnh trung bnh s sn phm loi II m KCS pht hin ra.
b) Tnh xc sut s sn phm loi II m KCS pht hin ra t 145 n
155 sn phm.
c) Tnh xc sut s sn phm loi II m KCS pht hin ra t hn 151
sn phm.
94

BI GII
Gi X l s sn phm loi II c pht hin ra.
V ly theo phng thc hon li nn X B(n, p) vi n = 500, p =

0, 3 hay X B(500; 0, 3)
a) Trung bnh s sn phm loi II m KCS pht hin ra:

30000
=
100000

EX = np = 500.0, 3 = 150
b) Xc sut s sn phm loi II m KCS pht hin ra t 145 n 155 sn
phm
Nhn thy p = 0, 3 kh nh so vi n = 500 v np = 500.0, 3 = 150 > 5 nn ta
c th xp x X N (, 2 ), trong ,
= np = 150 v 2 = npq = 500.0, 3.0, 7 = 105
Suy ra X N (150; 105)




155
145
P (145 X 155) =




155 150
145 150

= (0, 49) (0, 49)

105
105
= (0, 49) + (0, 49) = 2(0, 49) = 2.0, 1879 = 0, 3758
c) Xc sut s sn phm loi II m KCS pht hin ra t hn 151 sn
phm




151
0
P (0 X 151) =



 
151 150
150

=

= (0, 1) (14, 64)
105
105
= (0, 1) + (14, 64) = 0, 0398 + 0, 5 = 0, 5398
Bi 33. Mt nh my sn xut 100.000 sn phm, trong c 30.000 sn
phm loi II cn li l sn phm loi I. KCS n kim tra v ly ngu nhin
ng thi ra 500 sn phm th.
a) Tnh xc sut s sn phm loi II m KCS pht hin ra t 145 n
155 sn phm.
b) Tnh xc sut s sn phm loi II m KCS pht hin ra t hn 151
sn phm.
c) Tnh trung bnh s sn phm loi II m KCS pht hin ra.
BI GII
Gi X l s sn phm loi II c pht hin ra.
95

Theo gi thit, ta c X H(100000, 30000, 500)

V n = 500 kh ng so vi N = 100000 nn ta c th xp x X B(n, p) vi
30000
= 0, 3 hay X B(500; 0, 3)
n = 500 v p =
100000
Khi , ta gii bi ton tng t nh bi 33.
* Lu rng: ta bit khi tng th N rt ln th vic ly n sn phm
theo phng thc hon li v khng hon li c xem l nh nhau.
Bi 34. Mt ca hng trong khu ph nhp v mi ngy 34kg loi thc phm
ny vi gi 25000 ng/kg v bn ra vi gi 40000 ng/kg. Nu b th cui
ngy ca hng phi bn h gi cn 15000 ng/kg mi bn ht hng. Tnh tin
li trung bnh ca ca hng ny v loi thc phm ni trn trong mt ngy.
Cho bit nhu cu hng ngy ca ngi dn mt khu ph v mt loi thc
phm ti sng l LNN X c bng phn phi xc sut nh sau:
X (kg)
p

31
0,15

32
0,25

33
0,45

34
0,15

BI GII
Gi Y l s tin li ca hng thu c trong mt ngy.
Ta c: Y = 40000X + 15000(34 X) 25000.34 = 25000X 340000
Do , tin li trung bnh ca ca hng ny trong mt ngy:
EY = E(25000X 340000) = 25000EX 340000
Da vo bng PPXS bi cho, ta tnh c: EX =

4
X

xi .pi = 32, 6 (kg)

i=1

Suy ra EY = 25000.32, 6 340000 = 475000 (ng).

Ch . Ta c th gii bi ton nh sau:
Gi Y l s tin li ca hng thu c trong mt ngy
T mi lin h Y = 25000X 340000, ta lp bng PPXS ca Y:
Y (ng)
p

435000
0,15

460000
0,25

485000
0,45

510000
0,15

Khi , tin li trung bnh ca ca hng ny trong mt ngy:

EY =

4
X

yi .pi = 475000( ng)

i=1

Bi 35. Theo s liu thng k mt ca hng u tng, ngi ta thy lng

u bn ra l LNN X c bng phn phi xc sut nh sau:
96

X (kg)
p

10
0,15

13
0,2

16
0,35

19
0,2

22
0,1

Gi s gi u nhp vo l 10000 ng/kg th ca hng s li 5000 ng/kg;

nu n cui ngy khng bn c s l 8000 ng/kg. Vy mi ngy ca hng
nn nhp bao nhiu kg u thu c tin li trung bnh nhiu nht?
BI GII
Gi Y l tin li ca hng thu c trong mt ngy
Z l khi lng u m ca hng nn nhp vo mi ngy. Ta cn tm Z sao
cho EY nhiu nht.
Ta thy rng Z nhn mt trong cc gi tr: 10,13,16,19,22.
Ta c: Y = 5000X 8000(Z X) = 13000X 8000Z
Do , tin li trung bnh: EY = E(13000X 8000Z) = 13000EX 8000Z
4
X
xi .pi = 15, 7 (kg)
Da vo bi, ta tnh c: EX =
i=1

Suy ra EY = 13000.15, 7 8000Z = 204100 8000Z

Ta lp bng:
Z (kg)
EY

10
124100

13
108100

16
76100

19
52100

22
28100

Nh vy, ca hng nn nhp vo Z = 10 (kg) u tng mi ngy.

Bi 36. Nghin cu v mc lng (triu ng/nm) ca 400 cng nhn ngnh
may, ngi ta c bng s liu sau:
Lng (triu ng/nm)
S cng nhn

12
16

13,2
60

15,6
160

18
100

20,4
40

24
24

a) Gi X l thu nhp trong mt nm ca cng nhn may. Lp bng phn

phi xc sut ca X.
b) Tnh mc lng trung bnh ca mt cng nhn trong mt nm.
c) Tnh phng sai ca X.
BI GII
a) Bng PPXS ca X:

97

X (triu ng/nm)
p

12
0,04

13,2
0,15

15,6
0,4

18
0,25

20,4
0,1

24
0,06

b) Mc lng trung bnh ca cng nhn trong mt nm:

EX =

6
X

xi .pi = 16, 68 (triu ng/nm)

i=1

c) Phng sai: V arX =

6
X
i=1

2.6

x2i .pi (EX)2 = 286, 416 (16, 68)2 = 8, 1936

Bi tp t gii

Bi 1. Theo kinh nghim ca mt ngi bn hng th trong mt ln cho hng:

kh nng bn c sn phm A l 10% vi li nhun tng ng l 800 ngn
ng; kh nng bn c sn phm B l 20% vi li nhun tng ng l 500
ngn ng. Tnh li nhun trung bnh m ngi bn hng thu c trong mt
ln cho hng.
Bi 2. Lp A1 c 53 sinh vin, trong c 43 sinh vin l on vin; lp A2
c 57 sinh vin, trong c 51 sinh vin l on vin. Ngoi Ban cn s lp
gm 3 ngi u l on vin, cn chn ngu nhin t mi lp 2 sinh vin
tham d L khai ging nm hc. Gi X l s on vin trong 4 sinh vin c
chn ra.
a) Lp bng phn phi xc sut ca X.
b) Tnh k vng v phng sai ca X.
Bi 3. Mt l hng c 5000 sn phm, trong c 250 ph phm. Ly ngu
nhin ng thi 10 sn phm t l hng ny. Gi X l s ph phm ly c.
a) Xc nh lut phn phi xc sut ca X.
b) Tnh trung bnh s ph phm ly c v phng sai ca X.
c) Gi Y l s sn phm tt c ly ra. Tnh E(6X + DX).
Bi 4. Mt l hng c 5000 sn phm, trong c 250 ph phm. Ly ngu
nhin ln lt c hon li 8 sn phm t l hng ny. Gi X l s sn phm
tt ly c.
a) Xc nh lut phn phi xc sut ca X.
b) Tnh trung bnh s ph phm ly c v phng sai ca X.
98

c) Gi Y l s sn phm tt c ly ra. Tnh E(6X + DX).

Bi 5. Bn 10 vin n vo mt mc tiu mt cch c lp. Xc sut trng
ch ca mi ln bn l nh nhau v bng 0,7. Mc tiu s b ph hy nu c
t nht 7 vin n trng mc tiu. Tnh xc sut mc tiu b ph hy.
Bi 6. Mt phn xng c 50 my hot ng c lp vi nhau. Xc sut
mi my b hng trong 1 ca sn xut l 0,09.
a) Tnh xc sut trong mt ca sn xut c trn 90% my khng b hng.
b) Tm s my b hng trung bnh v s my b hng tin chc nht trong
mt ca sn xut.
c) Tm phng sai v lch chun ca s my b hng trong mt ca sn
xut.
Bi 7. Nh my dt mun tuyn dng ngi bit rnh v mt loi si. Mt
ngi d tuyn ni rng: ch cn nhn thong qua cng c th phn bit si
tht hay gi vi xc sut ng l 80%. Nhng tht ra ngi ny khng bit g
v si. Gim c nhn s th thch ngi ny 7 ln: mi ln ng em ra 2 loi
si, trong c 1 loi si tht. Nu ngi d tuyn ni ng t nht 6 ln th
s c tuyn dng. Tnh xc sut ngi ny c tuyn dng.
Bi 8. Trong mt l hng c 80 sn phm loi I v 15 sn phm loi II. Ly
ngu nhin ng thi 4 sn phm t l hng ny. Gi X l s sn phm loi I
ly c.
a) Tm quy lut phn phi xc sut ca X.
b) Tnh E(X + 6) v D(5X + 10).
c) Tnh xc sut ly c t nht 1 sn phm loi I.
Bi 9. Trong mt l hng c 80 sn phm loi I v 15 sn phm loi II. Ln
lt ly ngu nhin c hon li 4 sn phm t l hng ny. Gi X l s sn
phm loi I ly c.
a) Tm quy lut phn phi xc sut ca X.
b) Tnh E(5X + 1) v D(X + 9).
c) Tnh xc sut ly c nhiu nht 2 sn phm loi I.
Bi 10. mt trm bm xng, trung bnh mi gi c 20 xe my n bm
xng. Tnh xc sut :
a) C hn 15 xe n bm xng trong 30 pht.
b) C 25 xe n bm xng trong khong thi gian 1 gi.
c) C t hn 5 xa n bm xng trong 20 pht.
99

Bi 11. Chiu di ca mt loi sn phm do my t ng sn xut ra l LNN

c phn phi chun vi trung bnh l 100mm v lch chun l 5mm.
a) Tnh xc sut my sn xut c 1 sn phm c chiu di hn 106mm.
b) Cho my sn xut ngu nhin 3 sn phm. Tnh xc sut c 3 sn
phm u c chiu di hn 106mm.
Bi 12. Nng sut la mt a phng l LNN c phn phi chun vi
nng sut trung bnh l 50 t/ha v lch chun l 3,6 t/ha. Nhng tha
rung c nng sut thp hn nng sut trung bnh t hn 0,5 t/ha c gi
l nhng tha rung t yu cu.
a) Tnh t l tha rung t yu cu.
b) Tm xc sut khi gt ngu nhin 3 tha rung a phng ny th
c 2 tha rung t yu cu.
Bi 13. Trng lng ca mt loi sn phm do mt my t ng sn xut
ra l LNN X(gam) tun theo phn phi chun: X N (100, 1). Sn phm
c coi l t tiu chun k thut nu trng lng ca n t t 98gam n
102gam.
a) Tm t l sn phm t tiu chun k thut do my sn xut ra.
b) Tm t l ph phm do my sn xut ra.
c) Cho my sn xut 100 sn phm, tnh xc sut c trn 90 sn phm t
tiu chun k thut.
Bi 14. Gieo ngu nhin 10000 ht u tng. Xc sut ny mm ca mi ht
l nh nhau v bng 0,9. Gi X l s ht u ny mm.
a) Tm quy lut phn phi xc sut ca X.
b) Tnh k vng v phng sai ca X.
c) Tnh xc sut c 8500 ht ny mm.
d) Tnh xc sut c khng t hn 8000 ht ny mm.
Bi 15. Theo s liu thng k mt ca hng kinh doanh rau ti, ngi ta
thy rng lng rau bn ra l LNN X(kg) c bng phn phi xc sut:
X(kg)
p

160
0,1

200
0,2

240
0,4

260
0,25

300
0,05

Gi s gi nhp vo hin l 8000 ng/kg v ca hng s li 3000 ng cho mi

kg rau bn ra, nhng nu n cui ngy khng bn c s l 6500 ng/kg.
Hy cho bit mi ngy ca hng nn nhp bao nhiu kg rau c th thu c
li nhiu nht?
100

Chng 3

MU NGU NHIN V
CC C TRNG MU
A- TM TT L THUYT
I. Tng th v mu
1. Tng th
Tp hp tt c cc phn t m t cc phn t ta c th thu nhp,
kho st nhng thng tin v cc du hiu ta cn nghin cu c gi l
tng th. i vi tng th, ta s dng mt s khi nim v k hiu sau
y:
N : s phn t ca tng th v c gi l kch thc ca tng th.
X : du hiu ta cn kho st, nghin cu.

xi (i = 1, 2, ..., k): cc gi tr ca du hiu X o c trn cc phn

t ca tng th.
Ni (i = 1, 2, ..., k): tn s ca xi , l s phn t nhn gi tr xi . Ta
k
X
Ni = N
lun c
i=1

X
Ni
pi (i = 1, 2, ..., k): tn sut ca xi v pi =
pi = 1.
. Ta lun c:
N
i=1

Gia xi , Ni v pi lun lun c mt s tng ng. biu din s tng

ng gia cc gi tr xi , cc tn s Ni v tn sut pi ta c th lp bng
101

c cu ca tng th theo du hiu X .

Bng ny c dng:
Gi tr ca X
Tn s (Ni )

x1
N1

x2
N2

...
...

xk
Nk

a) Trung bnh ca tng th: Trung bnh ca tng th, k hiu l m,

k
X
xi .pi
c xc nh theo cng thc m =
i=1

b) Phng sai ca tng th: Phng sai ca tng th, k hiu l 2 ,

k
X
2
(xi m)2 .pi
c xc nh theo cng thc: =
i=1

c) lch chun ca tng th: lch chun

ca tng th, k hiu

2
l , c xc nh theo cng thc: =

d) T l ca tng th: Gi s tng th gm N phn t, trong c

M
c gi l t l cc
M phn t mang tnh cht A. Khi , p =
N
phn t cc phn t c tnh cht A ca tng th.
2. Khi nim mu
lp bng c cu ca tng th t ta tnh c trung bnh, phng
sai,... ca tng th th ta cn iu tra ton b N phn t ca tng th.
Cch lm ny trong thc t s gp phi nhng kh khn sau y:
Phi chu chi ph v tin ca, thi gian, nhn lc v phng tin,...

C nhiu trng hp khi iu tra s ph hy i cc phn t c

iu tra.
C nhng trng hp ta khng th xc nh c ton b N phn
t ca tng th.

Cho nn t tng th ngi ta ly ra n phn t v o lng gi tr ca

du hiu trn chng. n phn t ny lp nn mt mu v c gi l kch
thc ca mu.
II. Cc c trng ca mu
1. Trung bnh mu


Cho mu ngu nhin WX = X1 , X2 , ..., Xn .
102

1X
Xi .
Trung bnh mu, k hiu l X, c xc nh bi: X =
n i=1


Nu c mu c th Wx = x1 , x2 , ..., xn th trung bnh mu c k hiu
n
1X
xi .
l x v c tnh theo cng thc: x =
n i=1

2. Phng sai mu


Cho mu ngu nhin WX = X1 , X2 , ..., Xn . Phng sai mu, k hiu l
Sb2 , c xc nh bi:
i

2
1hX 2
1X
2
X (X)
Xi X =
S =
n i=1
n i=1 i
n

b2

Phng sai Sb2 l i lng o lng
phn tn ca cc s liu.

Nu c mu c th Wx = x1 , x2 , ..., xn th phng sai mu c k hiu
l s2 v c tnh theo cng thc:
i

2
1X
1hX 2
s =
xi (x)2
xi x =
n i=1
n i=1
n

3. Phng sai mu hiu chnh

Cho mu ngu nhin WX = X1 , X2 , ..., Xn .
Phng sai mu hiu chnh, k hiu l S 2 , c xc nh theo cng thc
S2

S2

n b2
S
hay
n1
n
n
i

2
1 hX 2
1 X
2
X n(X)
Xi X =
n 1 i=1
n 1 i=1 i

Nu c mu c th Wx = x1 , x2 , ..., xn th phng sai mu hiu chnh
c k hiu l s2 v c tnh theo cng thc:
s2

s2

n 2
s
hay
n1
n
n
i

2
1 X
1 hX 2
2
x n(x)
xi x =
n 1 i=1
n 1 i=1 i

4. lch chun mu
lch chun ca mu ngu
nhin, k hiu l S l cn bc hai ca phng
sai mu hiu chnh: S = S 2
103



Nu c mu c th Wx = x1 , x2 , ..., xn th lch chun c k hiu

l s v tnh bi cng thc: s = s2 .

Ch : Trng hp s liu ca mu cho di dng c tn s ni ,
tnh x v s2 ta p dng cng thc:
k
1X
Trung bnh mu:
ni .xi
x=
n i=1
k
i
1hX
2
2
2
ni .xi (x)
Phng sai mu:
s =
n i=1
n 2
Phng sai mu hiu chnh:
s2 =
s
n1
k
i
1 hX
2
2
2
ni .xi n(x)
hay
s =
n 1 i=1

lch chun mu:

s = s2
5. T l mu
nA
Vi mu c th, t l mu (k hiu l f ), c tnh bi cng thc: f =
n
Trong nA l tng s phn t c tnh cht A c trong mu c th, n
l kch thc mu.
Ch : Khi p dng cng thc trn, nu s liu ca mu c phn chia

thnh tng khong xi ; xi , th khi tnh ton ta thay mi khong bng gi

xi + xi
, i = 1, 2, ..., k.
tr trung tm ca khong (k hiu xi ): xi =
2
B- BI TP
Bi 1. Kho st v nng sut (t/ha) ca mt loi cy trng, ngi ta thu
c kt qu nh sau:
Nng sut (t/ha)
S im thu hoch

40
2

45
5

50
4

55
6

60
7

65
4

Tnh trung bnh mu, phng sai mu, phng sai mu hiu chnh v lch
chun ca mu.
BI GII
C mu n = 28
Trung bnh mu:

1X
ni .xi = 54, 1071(t/ha)
x=
n i=1
104

i
1hX
2
2
ni .xi (x) = 57, 2385
Phng sai mu:
s =
n i=1
n 2
Phng sai mu hiu chnh:
s2 =
s = 59, 3585
n1

lch chun mu:

s = s2 = 7, 7044 (t/ha)
6

Bi 2. Kho st lng nc tiu th X (m3 /thng) ca mt s h gia nh

thnh ph A, ngi ta c kt qu sau:
Lng nc
S h

24
5

46
7

68
19

8 10
22

10 12
6

12 15
11

Tnh trung bnh mu, phng sai mu, phng sai mu hiu chnh v lch
chun mu.
BI GII
Ta vit li bng:
Lng nc
S h
C mu n = 70

3
5

5
7

7
19

9
22

11
6

13,5
11

1X
ni .xi = 8, 5071(m3 / thng)
x=
Trung bnh mu:
n i=1
6
i
1hX
2
2
2
Phng sai mu:
s =
ni .xi (x) = 8, 5392
n i=1
n 2
Phng sai mu hiu chnh:
s2 =
s = 8, 663
n1

lch chun mu:

s = s2 = 2, 9433(m3 / thng)
Bi 3. Quan st v thi gian (pht) cn thit sn xut mt chi tit my,
ngi ta thu c cc s liu bng sau:
Thi gian
S chi tit

20
12

25
17

30
8

35
15

40
14

Tnh trung bnh mu, phng sai mu hiu chnh.

BI GII
C mu n = 86
Trung bnh mu:

1X
ni .xi = 34, 1279 (pht)
x=
n i=1
105

45
11

50
9

i
1 hX
2
2
ni .xi n(x) = 94, 2305
s =
n 1 i=1
7

Phng sai mu hiu chnh:

Bi 4. nghin cu nhu cu ca mt loi hng mt khu vc, ngi ta tin

hnh kho st 500 h gia nh. Kt qu cho bng di y:
Nhu cu
(kg/thng)
S h

10
12
25

12
14
32

14
16
47

16
18
50

18
20
80

20
22
85

22
24
95

24
26
66

26
28
20

Tnh trung bnh mu v lch tiu chun ca mu.

BI GII
Ta vit li bng:
Nhu cu (kg/thng)
S h
C mu n = 500

11
25

13
32

15
47

17
50

19
80

21
85

23
95

25
66

27
20

1X
x=
Trung bnh mu:
ni .xi = 19, 852 (kg/thng)
n i=1
v
u
9
i
u 1 hX
t
2
2
ni .xi n(x) = 4, 213 (kg/thng)
lch chun mu:
s=
n 1 i=1

Bi 5. Ly 18 mu thp ca mt nh my sn xut thp kim tra cht

lng. Kt qu kim tra v sc chu lc R (n v tnh l kg/cm2 ) nh sau:
12, 1
11, 2

10, 5
12, 6

13, 4
12, 5

10, 0
11, 7

11, 3
12, 8

12, 8
11, 6

13, 2
14, 1

12, 4
13, 2

12, 5
13, 7

Tnh trung bnh mu v lch tiu chun ca mu.

BI GII
C mu n = 18

1X
ni .xi = 12, 3111(kg/cm3 )
x=
Trung bnh mu:
n i=1
v
u
k
i
u 1 hX
t
lch chun mu:
s=
ni .x2i n(x)2 = 1, 0938(kg/cm3 )
n 1 i=1
106

Chng 4

C LNG THAM S
A- TM TT L THUYT
1. c lng im
c lng tham s cha bit ca i lng ngu nhin X, ta c th
dng mt con s, cch c lng nh vy c gi l c lng im.
c lng khng chch l c lng c sai s trung bnh bng 0. c
lng khng chch thng c s dng khi tm c lng im.
c lng khng chch ca trung bnh tng th m, ta dng trung
bnh mu X.
c lng khng chch ca phng sai tng th 2 , ta dng
phng sai mu S 2 .
c lng khng chch ca t l tng th p, ta dng t l mu
Fn .
2. c lng khong
c lng tham s cha bit ca i lng ngu nhin X, ta c
th dng mt khong s, cch c lng nh vy c gi l c lng
khong.
a) c lng trung bnh ca tng th
Trng hp X c phn phi chun v 2 bit:
k
1X
T mu c th ta tnh c trung bnh mu x =
ni xi
n i=1
107

Vi tin cy 1 , tra bng 3 ta s tm c gi tr ca t .

chnh xc = t .
n
Khong c lng ca m l x < m < x +
Trng hp n 30 v 2 cha bit:
T mu c th ta tnh c:
k

s2

s =

1X
ni xi
n i=1
" k
#
X
1
2
ni x2i n (x)
n 1 i=1

s2

Vi tin cy 1 , tra bng 3 ta s tm c gi tr ca t .

s
chnh xc = t .
n
Khong c lng ca m l x < m < x +
Trng hp n < 30 v 2 cha bit:
T mu c th ta tnh c:
k

s2

s =

1X
ni xi
n i=1
" k
#
X
1
2
ni x2i n (x)
n 1 i=1

s2

Vi tin cy 1 , tra bng 4 bc n 1 ta s tm c gi tr ca tn1

.

n1 s
chnh xc = t .
n
Khong c lng ca m l x < m < x +
b) c lng t l ca tng th:
nA
T mu c th ta tnh c f =
n
Vi tin cy 1 ,r
tra bng 3 ta s tm c gi tr ca t
f (1 f )
chnh xc = t .
n
Khong c lng ca p l f < p < f +
108

c) Cc bi ton ko theo:
Tm tin cy 1
Gi s c mu c th vi kch thc n v yu cu m bo chnh xc
cho trc th tin cy t c l bao nhiu %?
Trong bi ton c lng trung bnh m vi 2 bit

chnh xc = t .
n

n
= t =

Tra bng 1 ta c (t ), suy ra 1 = 2(t )

Trong bi ton c lng trung bnh m vi 2 cha bit v n 30
s
chnh xc = t .
n

n
= t =
s
Tra bng 1 ta c (t ), suy ra 1 = 2(t )
Trong bi ton c lng trung bnh m vi 2 cha bit v n < 30
s
chnh xc = tn1
.

n
n1
= t =
s
Tra bng 4 vi n 1 bc t do ta tm c 1
Trong bi ton cr
lng t l p
f (1 f )
chnh xc = t .
n

n
= t = p
f (1 f )

Tra bng 1 ta c (t ), suy ra 1 = 2(t )

Xc nh kch thc mu
Cht lng ca c lng c phn nh qua tin cy 1 v
chnh xc , kch thc mu cng ln th tin cy ln v chnh xc
cao. Nhng ta mun tin cy v chnh xc t c mt mc no
cho trc th cn kch thc mu ti thiu l bao nhiu?

109

 Xc nh kch thc mu (ti thiu) trong trng hp c lng trung

bnh ca tng th.
Ta c
r

t .
n

= n t

2
2


2
2
Vy kch thc mu n ti thiu s l n = t 2 + 1

Nu cha bit th vi kch thc mu cho ta thay = s.

= n t2

Xc nh kch thc mu (ti thiu) trong trng hp c lng t

l ca tng th.
Ta c
sp
p(1 p)

t .
n
p

p(1 p)
= n t

p(1 p)
= n t2
2


p(1

p)
Vy kch thc mu n ti thiu s l n = t2
+1
2
Thng thng th p cha bit nn vi kch thc mu cho ta thay
p(1 p) = f (1 f )
Nu n > n1 th ta phi iu tra thm n2 = n n1 kch thc mu
m bo tin cy v chnh xc cho trc.
B- BI TP

4.1

c lng khong cho trung bnh tng th

Bi 1. iu tra nng sut la trn din tch 100 hc ta trng la ca mt vng,

ngi ta tnh c trung bnh mu x = 6, 2 tn/ha v lch chun ca mu
110

s = 2, 02. Hy c lng nng sut la trung bnh ca ton vng vi tin

cy 95%?
BI GII
Gi m l nng sut la trung bnh ca ton vng.
y l bi ton c lng trung bnh trong trng hp n 30 v 2 cha bit.
Theo gi thit ta c c mu n = 100, trung bnh mu x = 6, 2, lch chun
mu s = 2, 02
Vi tin cy 1 = 95%, tra bng 3 ta s tm c gi tr ca t = 1, 96
s
chnh xc = t = 0, 3959
n
Khong c lng ca m l
x<m<x+
6, 2 0, 3959 < m < 6, 2 + 0, 3959 5, 8041 < m < 6, 5959

Vy vi tin cy 95%, khong c lng nng sut la trung bnh ca ton

vng l (5, 8041 tn; 6, 5959 tn).
Bi 2. Quan st nng sut lm vic ca 25 cng nhn trong mt t ca x
nghip may mc ngi ta tnh c nng sut trung bnh ca mt cng nhn
mu ny l x = 10 sn phm/ngy v phng sai mu hiu chnh s2 = 9.
a) c lng s sn phm trung bnh trong mt ngy ca x nghip ny vi
tin cy 99% (cho bit x nghip c 200 cng nhn).
b) Mun c lng nng sut trung bnh ca mt cng nhn trong x nghip
vi tin cy 95% v chnh xc = 0, 8 th cn quan st nng sut
ca bao nhiu cng nhn na?
BI GII
a) Gi m l nng sut trung bnh ca mt cng nhn trong x nghip ny.
y l bi ton c lng trung bnh trong trng hp n = 25 < 30 v 2 cha
bit.
Theo gi thit ta c c mu n = 25, trung bnh mu x = 10, lch chun
mu s = 3.
tra bng 3
Vi tin cy 1 = 99%,
=
t = 2, 5758
3
s
chnh xc = t = 2, 5758 = 1, 5455
n
25
Khong c lng ca m l
x<m<x+
10 1, 5455 < m < 10 + 1, 5455 8, 4545 < m < 11, 5455
111

Vy vi tin cy 99%, khong c lng s sn phm trung bnh ca x nghip

l (8, 4545 200; 11, 5455 200) hay (1691 sn phm; 2309 sn phm)
b) Gi n l s ngi cn quan st.
Da vo mu trn, lch chun mu l s = 3
tra bng 3

tin cy 1 = 0, 95
=
t = 1, 96
Kch thc mu n ti thiu s l




2
9
s
+1
n = t2 2 + 1 = 1, 962

0, 82
n = [54, 0225] + 1 = 55

Vy ta cn quan st nng sut thm 55 25 = 30 cng nhn na.

Bi 3. Theo di mc xng hao ph (gr) cho mt loi t i t A n B ngi
ta c bng s liu sau:
X(gr)
S ln i

19 19, 5
3

19, 5 20
8

20 20, 5
10

20, 5 21
5

21 21, 5
2

Tm khong c lng cho mc hao xng trung bnh ca loi t ny i t A

n B vi tin cy 95%, bit rng X tun theo phn phi chun, trong hai
trng hp:
a) Phng sai bng 4
b) Cha bit phng sai
BI GII
Ta vit li bng:
X(gr)
S ln i

19, 25
3

19, 75
8

20, 25
10

20, 75
5

21, 25
2

Da vo bng s liu, ta tnh c: c mu n = 28

5
1X
ni .xi = 20, 1607gr
x=
Trung bnh mu:
n i=1
v
u
5
i
u 1 hX
t
2
2
lch chun mu:
s=
ni .xi n(x) = 0, 5452gr
n 1 i=1

Gi m l mc hao xng trung bnh ca loi t ny.

a) y l bi ton c lng trung bnh trong trng hp n = 28 < 30 v
2 = 4 bit.
112

Theo trn, trung bnh mu: x = 20, 1607

Vi tin cy 1 = 95%, tra bng 3 ta tm c gi tr t = 1, 96.
s
2
chnh xc: = t = 1, 96 = 0, 7408.
n
28
Khong c lng ca m l: x < m < x + hay
20, 1607 0, 7408 < m < 20, 1607 + 0, 7408 19, 4199 < m < 20, 9015
Vy vi tin cy 95%, khong c lng mc hao xng trung bnh ca loi
t ny l (19, 4199gr; 20, 9015gr).
b) y l bi ton c lng trung bnh trong trng hp n = 28 < 30 v
2 cha bit.
Theo trn, trung bnh mu: x = 20, 1607, lch chun mu s = 0, 5452
tra bng 4

Vi tin cy 1 = 95%
=
tn1
= t27

0,05 = 2, 052.
0, 5452
s
chnh xc = t = 2, 052
= 0, 2114.
n
28
Khong c lng ca m l x < m < x +
20, 1607 0, 2114 < m < 20, 1607 + 0, 2114 19, 9493 < m < 20, 3721

Vy vi tin cy 95%, khong c lng mc hao xng trung bnh ca loi

t ny l (19, 9384gr; 20, 383gr).
Bi 4. em cn mt s tri cy va thu hoch ta c c bng s liu sau:
X(gr)
S tri

20 25
5

25 30
7

30 35
12

35 40
15

40 45
8

45 50
6

a) Tm khong c lng cho trng lng trung bnh ca tri cy vi tin

cy 0,99. Gi s trng lng ca tri cy tun theo phn phi chun.
b) Nu mun sai s c lng cho trng lng trung bnh ca tri cy khng
qu 1gr tin cy 99% th phi quan st t nht bao nhiu tri?
BI GII
Ta vit li bng:
X(g)
S tri

22, 5
5

27, 5
7

32, 5
12

37, 5
15

42, 5
8

47, 5
6

a) y l bi ton c lng trung bnh vi n = 53 > 30 v 2 cha bit.

Gi m l trng lng trung bnh ca tri cy. Ta tm khong c lng cho m.
113

Da vo bng s liu, ta tnh c:

6
1X
ni .xi = 35, 5189 g
x=
Trung bnh mu:
n i=1
v
u
6
i
u 1 hX
t
lch chun mu:
s=
ni .x2i n(x)2 = 7, 2284g
n 1 i=1
tra bng 3

tin cy 1 = 0, 99

=
t = 2, 5758
s
7, 2284
chnh xc: = t = 2, 5758
= 2, 5575.
n
53
Khong c lng ca m l: x < m < x + hay

35, 5189 2, 5575 < m < 35, 5189 + 2, 5575 32, 9614 < m < 38, 0764
Vy vi tin cy 99%, khong c lng trng lng trung bnh ca tri cy
l (32, 9614g; 38, 0764g).
b) Gi n l s tri cy cn quan st.
Da vo mu trn, lch chun mu l s = 7, 2284
tra bng 3

tin cy 1 = 0, 99
=
t = 2, 5758
Kch thc mu n ti thiu s l




2
2 s
2 52, 2496
n = t 2 + 1 = 2, 5758
+1

12
n = [346, 66] + 1 = 347

Vy mun sai s c lng cho trng lng trung bnh ca tri cy khng qu
1g tin cy 99% th phi quan st t nht 347 tri.
Bi 5. Kho st tui th ca mt s bng n do mt nh my sn xut, ta
c bng s liu nh sau:
Tui th
(gi)
S bng
Tui th
(gi)
S bng

1000
1100
8
1500
1600
17

1100
1200
12
1600
1700
20

1200
1300
15
1700
1800
25

1300
1400
20
1800
1900
19

1400
1500
18
1900
2000
16

a) Hy c lng cho tui th trung bnh ca loi bng n do nh my sn

xut vi tin cy 95%?
114

b) Ngi ta quy c nhng bng c tui th trn 1700 (gi) l bng loi I.
Hy c lng cho tui th trung bnh ca bng n loi I do nh my
sn xut vi tin cy 98%.
BI GII
Ta vit li bng:
Tui th
S bng
Tui th
S bng

1050
8
1550
17

1150
12
1650
20

1250
15
1750
25

1350
20
1850
19

1450
18
1950
16

a) y l bi ton c lng trung bnh vi n = 170 > 30 v 2 cha bit.

Gi m l tui th trung bnh ca loi bng n do nh my sn xut.
Ta tm khong c lng cho m. Da vo bng s liu, ta tnh c:
10
1X
ni .xi = 1550 gi
x=
Trung bnh mu:
n i=1
v
u
10
i
u 1 hX
t
2
2
ni .xi n(x) = 263, 3422gi
lch chun mu:
s=
n 1 i=1
tin cy 1 = 0, 95

tra bng 3

=
t = 1, 96
263, 3422
s
chnh xc: = t = 1, 96
= 39, 587.
n
170
Khong c lng ca m l: x < m < x + hay

1550 39, 587 < m < 1550 + 39, 587 1510, 413 < m < 1589, 587

Vy vi tin cy 95%, khong c lng tui th trung bnh ca loi bng

n do nh my sn xut l (1510, 413gi; 1589, 587gi).
b) y l bi ton c lng trung bnh vi n = 60 > 30 v 2 cha bit.
Gi m l tui th trung bnh ca loi bng n loi I do nh my sn xut. Ta
tm khong c lng cho m.
Da vo bng s liu, ta tnh c:
3
1X
Trung bnh mu:
ni .xi = 1835 gi
x=
n i=1
v
u
3
i
u 1 hX
t
2
2
ni .xi n(x) = 81, 9777gi
lch chun mu:
s=
n 1 i=1
tin cy 1 = 0, 98
chnh xc:

tra bng 3

=
t = 2, 3263
81, 9777
s
= 24, 6199.
= t = 2, 3263
n
60
115

Khong c lng ca m l: x < m < x + hay

1835 24, 6199 < m < 1835 + 24, 6199 1810, 3801 < m < 1859, 6199
Vy vi tin cy 98%, khong c lng tui th trung bnh ca loi bng
n do nh my sn xut l (1810, 3801gi; 1859, 6199gi).

4.2

c lng khong cho t l tng th

Bi 1. Ly ngu nhin 200 sn phm t kho hng kim tra thy rng c 30
ph phm. c lng t l ph phm ca kho hng vi tin cy 97%.
BI GII
y l bi ton c lng t l tng th.
Gi p l t l ph phm ca kho hng. Ta tm khong c lng cho p.
Theo gi thit, ta c: c mu n = 200
nA
30
T l mu:
f=
=
= 0, 15
n
200
tra bng 3
tin cy 1 = 0, 97
=
tr
= 2, 1701
r
f (1 f )
0, 15(1 0, 15)
= 2, 1701.
= 0, 0548.
chnh xc: = t .
n
200
Khong c lng ca p l: f < p < f + hay
0, 15 0, 0548 < p < 0, 15 + 0, 0548 0, 0952 < p < 0, 2048
Vy vi tin cy 97%, khong c lng t l ph phm ca kho hng l
(9, 52%; 20, 48%).
Bi 2. L tri cy ca mt ch hng c ng trong cc st, mi st 100 tri.
Ngi ta tin hnh kim tra 50 st thy c 380 tri khng t tiu chun.
a) Hy c lng t l tri khng t tiu chun ca l hng vi tin cy
99%?
b) Da vo mu trn, mun c lng t l tri khng t tiu chun vi
chnh xc 0, 5% th tin cy t c bao nhiu %?
c) Da vo mu trn, mun c lng t l tri khng t tiu chun vi
tin cy 95% v chnh xc 1% th cn kim tra bao nhiu st?
BI GII
a) y l bi ton c lng t l tng th.
Gi p l t l tri khng t tiu chun ca l hng. Ta tm khong c lng
cho p.
116

Theo gi thit, ta c: c mu n = 5000

nA
380
T l mu:
f=
=
= 0, 076
n
5000
tra bng 3
tin cy 1 = 0, 99
=
tr
= 2, 5758
r
f (1 f )
0, 076(1 0, 076)
= 2, 5758.
= 0, 0097.
chnh xc: = t .
n
5000
Khong c lng ca p l: f < p < f + hay
0, 076 0, 0097 < p < 0, 076 + 0, 0097 0, 0663 < p < 0, 0857
Vy vi tin cy 99%, khong c lng t l tri khng t tiu chun ca
l hng l (6, 63%; 8, 57%).
b) Ta cn tm tin cy 1 chnh xc = 0, 5%
Theo mu trn, t l mu
p f = 0, 076

f (1 f )
0, 076.0, 924

chnh xc = t
= t
n
5000
r
5000
Khi , = 0, 005 t = 0, 005.
= 1, 33
0, 076.0, 924
Tra bng 3, ta c 1 = 0, 82 = 82%.
c) Gi n l s st cn kim tra th s tri c kim tra s l 100n.
Ta cn tm n = 0, 01 vi tin cy 1 = 95%
Theo mu trn, t l mu l f = 0, 076
tin cy 1 = 0, 95r

tra bng 3

=
t = 1, 96
r
f (1 f )
0, 076.0, 924
= 1, 96.
.
chnh xc = t .
100n
100n
1, 962 .0, 076.0, 924
= 27 (st)
Cho ta = 0, 01 n =
0, 012 .100

117

4.3

Bi tp tng hp

Bi 1. iu tra nng sut la (tn/ha) trn din tch 90 hcta trng la ca

mt vng, ngi ta thu c bng s liu sau:
Nng sut
S h

5, 5
8

5, 7
17

5, 8
25

6, 0
12

6, 2
13

6, 4
10

6, 5
5

a) Tnh trung bnh mu x v phng sai mu s2 .

b) Hy c lng nng sut la trung bnh vng vi tin cy 95%?
c) Nhng tha rung c nng sut t 60 t/ha tr ln l nhng tha c
nng sut cao. Tm khong c lng t l din tch la c nng sut cao
trong ton vng vi tin cy 97%.
BI GII
a) Theo bng s liu, c mu n = 90
7
1X
xi ni = 5, 9444 (tn/ha)
x=
Trung bnh mu:
n i=1
7
i
1 hX 2
2
2
Phng sai mu hiu chnh:
s =
x ni n(x) = 0, 0856
n 1 i=1 i

b) y l bi ton c lng trung bnh tng th vi n > 30 v 2 cha

bit.
Gi m l nng sut la trung bnh ca vng. Ta tm khong c lng cho m.
Trung bnh mu:
x = 5, 9444
(tn/ha);
lch chun mu:
s = s2 = 0, 2926(tn/ha)
tin cy 1 = 0, 95

tra bng 3

=
t = 1, 96
s
0, 2926
= 0, 1118.
chnh xc: = t = 1, 96
n
90
Khong c lng ca m l: x < m < x + hay
5, 9444 0, 1118 < m < 5, 9444 + 0, 1118 5, 8326 < m < 6, 0562
Vy vi tin cy 95%, khong c lng nng sut la trung bnh ca vng
l (5, 8326 tn/ha; 6, 0562 tn/ha).
c) y l bi ton c lng t l tng th.
Gi p l t l din tch la c nng sut cao trong vng. Ta tm khong c
lng cho p.
Da vo bng s liu, ta c: c mu n = 90
118

nA
40
=
= 0, 4444
n
90
tra bng 3
tin cy 1 = 0, 97
=
tr
= 2, 1701
r
f (1 f )
0, 4444(1 0, 4444)
= 2, 1701.
= 0, 006.
chnh xc: = t .
n
90
Khong c lng ca p l: f < p < f + hay

T l mu:

f=

0, 4444 0, 006 < p < 0, 4444 + 0, 006 0, 4384 < p < 0, 4504
Vy vi tin cy 97%, khong c lng t l din tch la c nng sut cao
trong vng l (43, 84%; 45, 04%).
Bi 2. Quan st thu nhp (triu ng/thng) ca mt s ngi lm vic mt
cng ty, ta c kt qu cho bng di y:
Thu nhp
S ngi

46
10

68
15

8 10
25

10 12
10

12 14
8

14 16
7

a) c lng thu nhp trung bnh ca mt ngi cng ty ny vi tin

cy 98%.
b) Nhng ngi c thu nhp t 10 triu ng/thng tr ln l nhng ngi
c thu nhp cao. Tm khong c lng t l ngi c thu nhp cao
cng ty ny vi tin cy 95%.
BI GII
Ta vit li bng:
Thu nhp
S ngi

5
10

7
15

9
25

11
10

13
8

15
7

a) y l bi ton c lng trung bnh tng th vi n > 30 v 2 cha bit.

Gi m l thu nhp trung bnh ca mt ngi cng ty ny. Ta tm khong c
lng cho m.
Da vo bng s liu, ta tnh c: c mu n = 75
6
1X
Trung bnh mu:
ni .xi = 9, 32 (triu/thng)
x=
n i=1
v
u
6
i
u 1 hX
t
2
2
ni .xi n(x) = 2, 9232(triu/thng)
lch chun mu:
s=
n 1 i=1
tin cy 1 = 0, 98

tra bng 3

119

t = 2, 3263

s
2, 9232
= 0, 4593.
= t = 2, 3263
n
75
Khong c lng ca m l: x < m < x + hay
chnh xc:

9, 32 0, 4593 < m < 9, 32 + 0, 4593 8, 8607 < m < 9, 7793

Vy vi tin cy 98%, khong c lng thu nhp trung bnh ca mt ngi

cng ty l (8, 8607 triu/thng; 9, 7793 triu/thng).
b) y l bi ton c lng t l tng th.
Gi p l t l ngi c thu nhp cao cng ty. Ta tm khong c lng cho p.
Da vo bng s liu, ta c: c mu n = 75
nA
25
T l mu:
f=
=
= 0, 3333
n
75
tra bng 3
tin cy 1 = 0, 95
=
t = 1, 96
r
r
f (1 f )
0, 3333(1 0, 3333)
= 1, 96.
= 0, 1067.
chnh xc: = t .
n
75
Khong c lng ca p l: f < p < f + hay
0, 3333 0, 1067 < p < 0, 3333 + 0, 1067 0, 2266 < p < 0, 44

Vy vi tin cy 95%, khong c lng t l ngi c thu nhp cao cng

ty l (22, 66%; 44%).
Bi 3. nghin cu nhu cu (kg/thng) ca mt loi hng mt khu vc,
ngi ta tin hnh kho st v nhu cu mt hng ny 200 h gia nh. Kt
qu kho st cho bng sau:
Nhu cu
S h

12
22

23
25

34
35

45
50

56
30

67
20

78
18

Gi s khu vc nghin cu c 2000 h.

a) Hy c lng nhu cu trung bnh v mt hng ny ca ton khu vc
trong mt nm vi tin cy 95%?
b) Da vo mu trn, khi c lng nhu cu trung bnh v mt hng ny
ca ton khu vc trong mt nm, nu ta mun tin cy t c 99%
v chnh xc khng qu 4,8 tn th cn kho st v nhu cu ca mt
hng ny thm bao nhiu h gia nh na?
c) Hy c lng t l h gia nh c nhu cu s dng ln hn 5 kg/ thng
vi tin cy 96%?
BI GII
Ta vit li bng:
120

Nhu cu
S h

1, 5
22

2, 5
25

3, 5
35

4, 5
50

5, 5
30

6, 5
20

7, 5
18

a) y l bi ton c lng trung bnh tng th vi n > 30 v 2 cha bit.

Gi m l nhu cu trung bnh v mt hng ny ca mt h trong mt thng.
Da vo bng s liu, ta tnh c: c mu n = 200
7
1X
Trung bnh mu:
ni .xi = 4, 365 (kg/thng)
x=
n i=1
v
u
7
i
u 1 hX
t
2
2
ni .xi n(x) = 1, 7384(kg/thng)
lch chun mu:
s=
n 1 i=1
tin cy 1 = 0, 95

tra bng 3

=
t = 1, 96
1, 7384
s
chnh xc: = t = 1, 96
= 0, 1827.
n
200
Khong c lng ca m l: x < m < x + hay

4, 365 0, 1827 < m < 4, 365 + 0, 1827 4, 1823 < m < 4, 5477
Suy ra khong c lng nhu cu trung bnh v mt hng ny ca mt h
trong mt thng l (4, 1823 kg; 4, 5477kg).
Do , khong c lng nhu cu trung bnh v mt hng ny ca ton khu
vc trong mt thng l (4, 1823.2000; 4, 5477.2000) = (8364, 6 kg; 9095, 4 kg).
Vy khong c lng nhu cu trung bnh v mt hng ny ca ton khu vc
trong mt nm l (8364, 6.12; 9095, 4.12) = (100375, 2 kg; 109144, 8 kg).
b) Gi n l s h gia nh cn kho st.
chnh xc yu cu khi c lng nhu cu trung bnh v mt hng ny
4, 8.1000
mt h trong mt thng: =
= 0, 2 (kg)
2000.12
tra bng 3
tin cy 1 = 0, 99
=
t = 2, 5758
s
1, 7384
chnh xc: = t = 2, 5758
n
n
1,
7384
Khi , = 0, 2 2, 5758
0, 2 n 288, 3
n
Vy ta cn kho st n = 289 h, ngha l ta cn kho st thm 89 h na.
c) y l bi ton c lng t l tng th.
Gi p l t l ngi c nhu cu ln hn 5kg/thng. Ta tm khong c lng
cho p.
Da vo bng s liu, ta c: c mu n = 200
68
nA
=
= 0, 34
T l mu:
f=
n
200
121

tra bng 3

tin cy 1 = 0, 96
r

=
tr
= 2, 0537
f (1 f )
0, 34(1 0, 34)
= 2, 0537.
= 0, 0688.
chnh xc: = t .
n
200
Khong c lng ca p l: f < p < f + hay
0, 34 0, 0688 < p < 0, 34 + 0, 0688 0, 2712 < p < 0, 4088
Vy vi tin cy 98%, khong c lng t l ngi c nhu cu ln hn
5kg/thng l (27, 12%; 40, 88%).
Bi 4. Ly ngu nhin 100 sn phm trong kho ca mt x nghip, em cn
ln c kt qu:
Trng lng
(gr)
S sn phm

800850
5

850900
10

900950
20

9501000
30

10001050
15

10501100
10

11001150
10

a) Cc sn phm c trng lng trn 1050g l loi I. Hy c lng trng

lng trung bnh ca cc sn phm loi I vi tin cy 98% (gi thit
trng lng ny c phn phi chun)?
b) Hy c lng t l sn phm loi I vi tin cy 95%?
c) Nu mun c lng t l sn phm loi I vi tin cy 95% v chnh
xc 3% th cn iu tra bao nhiu sn phm?
BI GII
Ta vit li bng:
Trng lng (gr)
S sn phm

825
5

875
10

925
20

975
30

1025
15

1075
10

1125
10

a) y l bi ton c lng trung bnh tng th vi n = 20 < 30 v 2 cha

bit.
Gi m l trng lng trung bnh ca sn phm loi I.
Da vo bng s liu, ta tnh c: c mu n = 20
7
1X
ni .xi = 1100 (gr)
Trung bnh mu:
x=
n i=1
v
u
7
i
u 1 hX
t
ni .x2i n(x)2 = 25, 6495(gr)
lch chun mu:
s=
n 1 i=1
tin cy 1 = 0, 98

tra bng 4

122

tn1
= t19

0,02 = 2, 539

s
25, 6495
= 14, 56.
= tn1
= 2, 539

n
20
Khong c lng ca m l: x < m < x + hay

chnh xc:

1100 14, 56 < m < 1100 + 14, 56 1085, 44 < m < 1114, 56
Vy khong c lng trng lng trung bnh ca sn phm loi I l
(1085, 44 gr; 1114, 56gr)
b) y l bi ton c lng t l tng th.
Gi p l t l sn phm loi I. Ta tm khong c lng cho p.
Da vo bng s liu, ta c: c mu n = 100
20
nA
=
= 0, 2
T l mu:
f=
n
100
tra bng 3
tin cy 1 = 0, 95
=
t = 1, 96
r
r
f (1 f )
0, 2(1 0, 2)
chnh xc: = t .
= 1, 96.
= 0, 0784.
n
100
Khong c lng ca p l: f < p < f + hay
0, 2 0, 0784 < p < 0, 2 + 0, 0784 0, 1216 < p < 0, 2784
Vy vi tin cy 95%, khong c lng t l sn phm loi I l (12, 16%; 27, 84%).
c) Gi n l s h sn phm cn kho st.
y l bi ton xc nh kch thc mu trong trng hp c lng t l ca
tng th.
Kch thc mu n s l
n = t2

f (1 f )
0, 2(1 0, 2)
= 1, 962
= 683
2

0, 032

Vy ta cn iu tra bao 683 sn phm.

123

Chng 5

KIM NH GI THIT
THNG K
A- TM TT L THUYT
I. Cc khi nim
1. Gi thit thng k
Gi thit thng k l nhng gi thit ni v cc tham s, phn phi xc
sut, hoc tnh c lp ca cc i lng ngu nhin.
Vic tm ra kt lun bc b hay chp nhn mt gi thit gi l kim nh
gi thit thng k.
Cch t gi thit thng k H0 : = 0 ; H1 : 6= 0 ( l mt tham
s no ca i lng ngu nhin ta ang nghin cu; 0 l gi tr
bit).
2. Mc ngha, min bc b
Gi s rng H0 ng, t tm mt bin c xc sut b c
th tin rng bin c hu nh khng th xy ra trong mt php
th. Mun vy, t mu ngu nhin Wx = (X1 , X2 , ..., Xn ), ta chn
Z = f (X1 , X2 , ..., Xn , 0 )
Z c chn sao cho: nu H0 ng th ta s xc nh c quy lut phn
phi xc sut ca Z v vi mu c th ta c th tnh c gi tr ca Z.
Do quy lut phn phi xc sut ca Z bit, nn vi b ty ta
c th tm c min W sao cho P (Z W ) = . Min W c gi
l min bc b gi thit H0 . Trong thc t thng chn trong khong
(1%; 5%). c gi l mc ngha ca kim nh.
124

i vi mu ngu nhin Wx , ta thu c mu c th Wx = (x1 , x2 , ..., xn ).

T mu c th ny ta tnh c gi tr ca Z (k hiu l z) v gi l gi
tr thc nghim:
z = f (x1 , x2 , ..., xn , 0 )
Nu z W th ta bc b gi thit H0 tha nhn H1 .
Nu z W th ta chp nhn H0 .
Cn lu l khi ta ni "chp nhn H0 " iu khng c ngha l gi
thit H0 ng m ch c ngha l vi s liu ca mu ta cha c s
bc b H0 .
3. Sai lm loi 1 v sai lm loi 2
Khi kim nh gi thit thng k, chng ta c th mc phi mt trong
hai loi sai lm sau y:
a) Sai lm loi 1: L sai lm mc phi khi ta bc b mt gi thit
H0 trong khi thc t th gi thit H0 ng.
Xc sut mc phi sai lm loi 1 bng mc ngha :
P (Z W ) =

b) Sai lm loi 2: L sai lm mc phi khi ta chp nhn mt gi thit

H0 trong khi thc t th gi thit H0 sai.
Cc trng hp xy ra khi tin hnh kim nh gi thit thng k c
tm tt di dng bng sau:
Bc b
Chp nhn

H0 ng
Sai lm loi 1
Kt lun ng

H0 sai
Kt lun ng
Sai lm loi 2

C hai loi sai lm u gy ra tc hi. D nhin ta c gng hn ch cc

sai lm, h thp xc sut mc phi sai lm. Nhng nu ta mun gim
xc sut sai lm loi 1 th s lm tng xc sut sai lm loi 2 v ngc
li.
II. Kim nh gi thit v trung bnh ca tng th
Gi s trung bnh ca tng th l m cha bit.
Cn kim nh gi thit H0 : m = m0 vi gi thit i H1 : m 6= m0 (m0 l
mt gi tr bit khi t gi thit H0 ).
kim nh gi thit trn ta tin hnh ly mu vi kch thc n v xt cc
trng hp sau:
Trng hp X c phn phi chun v 2 bit
k
1X
T mu c th ta tnh c trung bnh mu: x =
ni xi .
n i=1
125

Vi mc ngha , tra bng 3 ta

s tm c gi tr ca t .
(x m0 ) n
Tnh kim nh t =

Nu |t| t th ta chp nhn gi thit H0 .

Nu |t| > t th ta bc b gi thit H0 , chp nhn gi thit H1 .
Khi
Nu x > m0 th ta xem nh m > m0
Nu x < m0 th ta xem nh m < m0
T vic chp nhn (hay bc b) H0 ta suy ra kt lun cui cng
theo yu cu ca bi ton thc t.
Trng hp n 30 v 2 cha bit
T mu c th ta tnh c:
k

s2

s =

1X
ni xi
n i=1
#
" n
X
1
2
ni x2i n (x)
n 1 i=1

s2

Vi mc ngha , tra bng 3ta s tm c gi tr ca t .

(x m0 ) n
Tnh kim nh t =
s
Nu |t| t th ta chp nhn gi thit H0 .
Nu |t| > t th ta bc b gi thit H0 , chp nhn gi thit H1 .
Khi
Nu x > m0 th ta xem nh m > m0
Nu x < m0 th ta xem nh m < m0
T vic chp nhn (hay bc b) H0 ta suy ra kt lun cui cng
theo yu cu ca bi ton thc t.
Trng hp n < 30 v 2 cha bit
T mu c th ta tnh c:
k

s2

s =

1X
ni xi
n i=1
" k
#
X
1
ni x2i n (x)2
n 1 i=1

s2
126

Vi mc ngha , tra bng 4ta s tm c gi tr ca tn1

.

(x m0 ) n
Tnh kim nh t =
s
Nu |t| tn1
th ta chp nhn gi thit H0 .

Nu |t| > tn1

th ta bc b gi thit H0 , chp nhn gi thit H1 .

Khi
Nu x > m0 th ta xem nh m > m0
Nu x < m0 th ta xem nh m < m0
T vic chp nhn (hay bc b) H0 ta suy ra kt lun cui cng
theo yu cu ca bi ton thc t.
III. Kim nh t l ca tng th
nA
.
T mu c th ta tnh c f =
n
Vi mc ngha , tra bng 3ta s tm c gi tr ca t .
(f p0 ) n
Tnh kim nh t = p
p0 (1 p0 )
Nu |t| t th ta chp nhn gi thit H0 .

Nu |t| > t th ta bc b gi thit H0 , chp nhn gi thit H1 .

Khi
Nu f > p0 th ta xem nh p > p0
Nu f < p0 th ta xem nh p < p0
T vic chp nhn (hay bc b) H0 ta suy ra kt lun cui cng theo yu
cu ca bi ton thc t.

B- BI TP

5.1

So snh trung bnh tng th vi mt s

Bi 1. Trng lng ca mt loi sn phm theo quy nh l 10kg. Sau mt thi

gian sn xut, ngi ta tin hnh kim tra 150 sn phm v tnh c trung
bnh mu x = 9, 9852, phng sai mu s2 = 4, 9857. Sn xut c xem l bnh
thng nu cc sn phm sn xut ra c trng lng trung bnh bng trng
lng quy nh l 10 kg. Vi mc ngha 5%, hy kt lun v tnh hnh sn xut.
BI GII
127

Gi m trng lng trung bnh thc t ca cc sn phm sn xut ra.

Ta kim nh gi thit H0 : m = 10; H1 : m 6= 10.
y l bi ton kim nh gi thit v trung bnh ca tng th trong trng
hp n = 150 > 30 v 2 cha bit.
2
Ta c trung bnh mu x = 9, 9852,
phng sai mu s = 4, 9857 = s = 2, 2329
(x m0 ) n
(9, 9852 10) 150
Tnh kim nh t =
=
= 0, 0812
s
2, 2329
Vi mc ngha = 5% tra bng 3 ta tm c gi tr t = 1, 96
V |t| < t nn ta chp nhn gi thit H0 . Vy tnh hnh sn xut bnh thng.
Bi 2. Trng lng trung bnh khi xut chung mt tri chn nui g cng
nghip nm trc l 2,8 kg/con. Nm nay ngi ta s dng mt loi thc
n mi. Cn th 25 con khi xut chung ngi ta tnh c trung bnh mu
x = 3, 2, phng sai mu s2 = 0, 36.
a) Vi mc ngha 3%, hy kt lun v tc dng ca loi thc n ny?
b) Nu tri chn nui bo co trng lng trung bnh khi xut chung l
3,4 kg/con th c chp nhn c khng (vi mc ngha 5%)?
BI GII
a) Gi m l trng lng trung bnh thc t nm nay ca n g.
Ta kim nh gi thit H0 : m = 2, 8; H1 : m 6= 2, 8.
y l bi ton kim nh gi thit v trung bnh ca tng th trong trng
hp n = 25 < 30 v 2 cha bit.
Ta c trung bnh mu x = 3, 2,
phng sai mu s2= 0, 36 = s = 0, 6
(3, 2 2, 8) 25
(x m0 ) n
=
= 3, 333
Tnh kim nh t =
s
0, 6
Vi mc ngha = 3% tra bng 4 ta tm c gi tr tn1
= t24

= 2, 307
24
Ta thy |t| > t nn bc b gi thit H0 , tc m 6= 2, 8.
Do x > 2, 8 nn ta xem nh m > 2, 8
Vy thc n ny c tc dng lm tng trng lng trung bnh ca n g nm
nay ln.
b) Gi m l trng lng trung bnh thc t nm nay ca n g.
Ta kim nh gi thit H0 : m = 3, 4; H1 : m 6= 3, 4.
y l bi ton kim nh gi thit v trung bnh ca tng th trong trng
hp n = 25 < 30 v 2 cha bit.
Ta c trung bnh mu x = 3, 2,
phng sai mu s2= 0, 36 = s = 0, 6
(3, 2 3, 4) 25
(x m0 ) n
=
= 1, 6667
Tnh kim nh t =
s
0, 6
Vi mc ngha = 3% tra bng 4 ta tm c gi tr tn1
= t24

= 2, 064
24
Ta thy |t| < t nn chp nhn gi thit H0 .
Vy c th chp nhn bo co ca tri chn nui ny v trng lng trung bnh
128

ca g khi xut chung.

Bi 3. Mt bnh vin ti trung tm thnh ph cung cp dch v cp cu ti
nh. Vi khong 20 xe cp cu, mc tiu ca trung tm l cung cp dch v
cp cu trong khong thi gian trung bnh l 12 pht sau khi nhn c in
thoi yu cu, phng sai l 3, 22 v thi gian ca mt ca cp cu tun theo
quy lut phn phi chun. Mt mu ngu nhin gm thi gian p ng khi c
yu cu ca 40 ca cp cu c chn, trung bnh mu l 13,25 pht.
Gim c mun thc hin mt kim nh, vi mc ngha 4% hy xc nh
xem mc tiu ca trung tm c t c hay khng?
BI GII
Gi m l thi gian trung bnh ca mt ca cp cu.
Ta kim nh gi thit H0 : m = 12; H1 : m 6= 12.
y l bi ton kim nh gi thit v trung bnh ca tng th trong trng
hp 2 bit, n = 40.
2
2
Ta c trung bnh mu x = 13, 25,
= 2, 5 = = 2, 5
phng sai tng th
(13, 25 12) 40
(x m0 ) n
=
= 3, 1623
Tnh kim nh t =

2, 5
Vi mc ngha = 4% tra bng 3 ta tm c gi tr t = 2, 0537
Ta thy |t| > t nn bc b gi thit H0 , tc l m 6= 12.
Ngoi ra, do x > 12 nn ta xem nh m > 12.
Vy thi gian trung bnh ca mt ca cp khi nhn c in thoi yu cu ca
trung tm ln hn 12 pht nn mc tiu ca trung tm cha t c.
Bi 4. Nng sut la trung bnh (tn/hecta) ca nm trc l 6,2 tn/hecta.
V la nm nay ngi ta p dng mt bin php k thut mi cho din tch
trng la trong vng. iu tra nng sut la trn 100 hcta trong vng ta
c bng s liu sau:
Nng sut
Din tch

4-5
10

5-6
26

6-7
35

7-8
10

8-9
10

9-10
5

10-12
4

Vi mc ngha 5%, hy kt lun xem bin php k thut mi c tc dng

lm tng nng sut la ca vng ny ln hay khng?
BI GII
Ta vit li bng:
Nng sut
Din tch

4,5
10

5,5
26

6,5
35
129

7,5
10

8,5
10

9,5
5

11
4

Gi m l nng sut trung bnh ca v la nm nay.

Ta kim nh gi thit H0 : m = 6, 2; H1 : m 6= 6, 2.
y l bi ton kim nh gi thit v trung bnh ca tng th trong trng
hp n = 100 > 30 v 2 cha bit.
Da vo bng s liu, ta tnh c:
k

1X
ni xi = 6, 67
x =
n i=1
" k
#
X
1
2
s2 =
ni x2i n (x) = 2, 4153
n 1 i=1

s2 = 1, 5541
s =

(6, 67 6, 2) 100
(x m0 ) n
=
= 3, 0243
Tnh kim nh t =
s
1, 5541
Vi mc ngha = 5% tra bng 3 ta tm c gi tr t = t = 1, 96
Ta thy |t| > t nn bc b gi thit H0 , tc m 6= 6, 2.
Do x > 6, 2 nn ta xem nh m > 6, 2
Vy bin php k thut mi c tc dng lm tng nng sut la ca vng ny.
Bi 5. Trc y nh mc tiu th in cho mt h gia nh trong mt thng
l 120KW. Do i sng nng cao, ngi ta theo di 130 h gia nh trong mt
thng tiu th ta thu c bng s liu sau:
Lng tiu th
(KW)
S h gia nh

100110
16

110120
24

120130
35

130140
25

140150
20

150180
10

Vi mc ngha = 5%, ta c cn thay i nh mc tiu th in hay khng?

BI GII
Ta vit li bng:
Lng tiu th
S h gia nh

105
16

115
24

125
35

135
25

145
20

165
10

Gi m l mc tiu th in trung bnh cho mt h gia nh trong mt thng.

Ta kim nh gi thit H0 : m = 120; H1 : m 6= 120.
y l bi ton kim nh gi thit v trung bnh ca tng th trong trng
hp n = 130 > 30 v 2 cha bit.

130

Da vo bng s liu, ta tnh c:

k

1X
ni xi = 128, 7692
x =
n i=1
" k
#
X
1
2
ni x2i n (x) = 259, 3261
s2 =
n 1 i=1

s =
s2 = 16, 1036

(128, 7692 120) 130

(x m0 ) n
=
= 6, 2088
Tnh kim nh t =
s
16, 1036
Vi mc ngha = 5% tra bng 3 ta tm c gi tr t = t = 1, 96
Ta thy |t| > t nn bc b gi thit H0 , tc m 6= 120.
Do x > 120 nn ta xem nh m > 120
Vy ta cn thay i nh mc tiu th in (trong khong 125 130 KW).

5.2

So snh t l tng th vi mt s

Bi 1. Mt my sn xut t ng, lc u t l sn phm loi A l 52% . Sau

khi p dng mt phng php sn xut mi ngi ta kim tra 500 sn phm
th thy c 285 sn phm loi A. Vi mc ngha = 5%, hy kt lun xem
phng php sn xut mi c thc s lm tng t l sn phm loi A ln hay
khng?
BI GII
Gi p l t l sn phm loi A ca my sau khi p dng phng php sn
xut mi (p cha bit). kt lun phng php sn xut mi c thc s
lm tng t l sn phm loi A ln hay khng ta i kim nh gi thit
H0 : p = 52% = 0, 52; H1 : p 6= 0, 52.
285
nA
=
= 0, 57
T l sn phm loi A ca mu l f =
n
500
Vi mc ngha = 5%, tra bng
gi tr ca t = 1, 96.
3 ta s tm c
(f p0 ) n
(0, 57 0, 52) 500
Tnh kim nh t = p
= p
= 2, 2379
p0 (1 p0 )
0, 52 (1 0, 52)
Ta thy |t| > t nn bc b gi thit H0 , tc p 6= 0, 52. Do f > 0, 52 nn ta
xem nh p > 0, 52
Vy phng php sn xut mi thc s lm tng t l sn phm loi A ln.
Bi 2. T l ph phm ca mt nh my trc y l 5, 5%. Nm nay nh
my p dng mt bin php k thut mi. nghin cu tc dng ca bin
131

php k thut mi ngi ta ly mt mu gm 800 sn phm kim tra v

thy c 30 ph phm trong mu ny.
a) Vi mc ngha = 6%, hy kt lun v tc dng ca bin php k
thut mi ny?
b) Nu nh my bo co t l ph phm sau khi p dng bin php k thut
mi gim xung ch cn 3, 5% th c chp nhn c hay khng (vi
mc ngha = 5%)?
BI GII
Gi p l t l sn ph phm ca nh my sau khi p dng phng php sn
xut mi (p cha bit).
a) kt lun tc dng ca bin php k thut mi ny ta i kim nh gi
thit H0 : p = 5, 5% = 0, 055; H1 : p 6= 0, 055.
nA
30
T l ph phm ca mu l f =
=
= 0, 0375
n
800
Vi mc ngha = 6%, tra bng
3 ta s tm c gi trca t = 1, 8808.
(f p0 ) n
(0, 0375 0, 055) 800
Tnh kim nh t = p
= p
= 2, 1711
p0 (1 p0 )
0, 055 (1 0, 055)
Ta thy |t| > t nn bc b gi thit H0 , tc l p 6= 0, 055. Do f > 0, 055 nn
ta xem nh p > 0, 055 Vy bin php k thut mi ny c tc dng lm gim
t l ph phm ca nh my.
b) kt lun bo co ca nh my c chp nhn c hay khng, ta i
kim nh gi thit H0 : p = 3, 5% = 0, 035; H1 : p 6= 0, 035.
T l ph phm ca mu l f = 0, 0375
Vi mc ngha = 5%, tra bng
3 ta s tm c gi trca t = 1, 96.
(0, 0375 0, 035) 800
(f p0 ) n
= 0, 3848
= p
Tnh kim nh t = p
p0 (1 p0 )
0, 035 (1 0, 035)
Ta thy |t| < t nn chp nhn gi thit H0 .
Vy nh my bo co t l ph phm sau khi p dng bin php k thut mi
gim xung ch cn 3, 5% l chp nhn c.

5.3

Bi tp tng hp

Bi 1. Kho st v thu nhp X (triu ng/thng) ca mt s cng nhn ti

mt cng ty may mc ngi ta c bng s liu sau:
Thu nhp
S ngi

23
5

34
9

45
30

132

56
25

67
10

79
6

a) Tnh trung bnh mu, lch chun mu.

b) Hy c lng thu nhp trung bnh ca mt ngi trong mt thng vi
tin cy 95%?
c) Gi s cng ty bo co rng "mc thu nhp trung bnh ca mt ngi
l 5.000.000 ng/thng" th c chp nhn c hay khng (vi mc
ngha 5%)?
d) Nhng ngi c mc thu nhp khng qu 4.000.000 ng/thng l nhng
ngi c mc thu nhp thp. Hy c lng t l nhng ngi c mc
thu nhp thp vi tin cy 96%?
e) Gi s cng ty bo co rng "T l nhng ngi c mc thu nhp thp
ca cng ty l 10%" th c chp nhn c khng (vi mc ngha 7%)?
BI GII
Ta vit li bng:
Thu nhp
S ngi

2,5
5

3,5
9

4,5
30

5,5
25

6,5
10

8
6

a) Da vo bng s liu, ta tnh c: C mu n = 85

k
1X
ni xi = 5, 0529
Trung bnh mu: x =
n i=1
v
#
" k
u
u 1
X
2
lch chun: s = t
ni x2i n (x) = 1, 2979
n 1 i=1

b) Gi m l mc thu nhp trung bnh mt ngi trong mt thng ca cng ty.

y l bi ton c lng trung bnh vi n = 85 > 30 v 2 cha bit.
Vi tin cy 1 = 95%, tra bng 3 ta s tm c gi tr ca t = 1, 96.
s
chnh xc = t = 0, 2759.
n
Khong c lng ca m l x < m < x +
5, 0529 0, 2759 < m < 5, 0529 + 0, 2759 4, 7770 < m < 5, 3288

Vy vi tin cy 95%, khong c lng thu nhp trung bnh ca cng ty

ny l (4, 7770; 5, 3288) tn.
c) Ta kim nh gi thit H0 : m = 5; H1 : m 6= 5.
y l bi ton kim nh gi thit v trung bnh ca tng th trong trng
hp n = 85 > 30 v 2 cha bit.

(5, 0529 5) 85
(x m0 ) n
=
= 0, 3758
Tnh kim nh t =
s
1, 2979
Vi mc ngha = 5% tra bng 3 ta tm c gi tr t = 1, 96
133

Ta thy |t| < t nn nhn chp gi thit H0 .

Vy cng ty bo co "Mc thu nhp trung bnh ca mt ngi l 5.000.000
ng/thng" l chp nhn c.
5+9
nA
=
= 0, 1647.
d) T l ca ngi c thu nhp thp l f =
n
85
Vi tin cy 1 = r
96%, tra bng 3 ta s tm
r c gi tr ca t = 2, 0537.
f (1 f )
0, 1647 (1 0, 1647)
chnh xc = t
= 2, 0537
= 0, 0826.
n
85
Khong c lng ca p l f < p < f +
0, 1647 0, 0826 < p < 0, 1647 + 0, 0826 0, 0821 < p < 0, 2473

Vy vi tin cy 96%, khong c lng t l ngi c mc thu nhp thp

ca cng ty ny l (0, 0821; 0, 2473).
e) kt lun bo co ca cng ty c chp nhn c hay khng, ta i kim
nh gi thit H0 : p = 10% = 0, 1; H1 : p 6= 0, 1.
Vi mc ngha = 7%, tra bng
tr ca t = 1, 8119.
3 ta s tm c gi
(0, 1647 0, 1) 85
(f p0 ) n
= 1, 9883
= p
Tnh kim nh t = p
p0 (1 p0 )
0, 1 (1 0, 1)
Ta thy |t| > t nn bc b gi thit H0 .
Ngoi ra, do f > 0, 1 nn ta xem nh p > 0, 1
Vy cng ty bo co rng "T l nhng ngi c mc thu nhp thp ca cng
ty l 10%" th khng chp nhn c.
Bi 2. iu tra nng sut ca mt ging la trn 100 ha, ta c bng s liu:
Nng sut (tn/ha)
S ha

8
6

8, 5
14

9
20

9, 5
35

10
20

11
5

a) Hy c lng nng sut la trung bnh trn mi hcta vi tin cy

99%?
b) Nhng tha rung c nng sut t 9 tn/ha tr ln c gi l t tiu
chun. Hy c lng t l cc tha rung t tiu chun vi tin cy
95%?
c) Mun chnh xc khi c lng nng sut la trung bnh khng qu 0,1
vi tin cy 95% th cn quan st thm t nht bao nhiu hecta na?
d) Theo mt ti liu thng k cho bit nng sut la trung bnh ca ging
la trn l 10 (tn/ha). Hy cho bit bng s liu trn c ph hp vi ti
liu ny khng (vi mc ngha 5%)?

134

BI GII
Da vo bng s liu, ta tnh c: C mu n = 100
k
1X
Trung bnh mu: x =
ni xi = 9, 345
n i=1
v
" k
#
u
u 1
X
lch chun: s = t
ni x2i n (x)2 = 0, 6842
n 1 i=1

a) Gi m l nng sut la trung bnh trn mi hcta ca vng.

y l bi ton c lng trung bnh vi n = 100 > 30 v 2 cha bit.
Vi tin cy 1 = 99%, tra bng 3 ta s tm c gi tr ca t = 2, 5758.
0, 6842
s
chnh xc = t = 2, 5758
= 0, 1762.
n
100
Khong c lng ca m l x < m < x +
9, 345 0, 1762 < m < 9, 345 + 0, 1762 9, 1688 < m < 9, 5212
Vy vi tin cy 99%, nng sut la trung bnh l (9, 1688; 9, 5212) tn/ha.

b) Gi p l t l nng sut la t tiu chun ca vng (p cha bit).

80
nA
=
= 0, 8.
T l ca ngi c thu nhp thp l f =
n
100
Vi tin cy 1 =r95%, tra bng 3 ta r
s tm c gi tr ca t = 1, 96.
f (1 f )
0, 8 (1 0, 8)
chnh xc = t
= 1, 96
= 0, 0784.
n
100
Khong c lng ca p l f < p < f +
0, 8 0, 0784 < p < 0, 8 + 0, 0784 0, 7216 < p < 0, 8784

Vy vi tin cy 95%, khong c lng t l cc tha rung t tiu chun

ca vng ny l (0, 7216; 0, 8784).
c) y l bi ton xc nh kch thc mu (ti thiu) trong trng hp c
lng trung bnh ca tng th.
Theo gi thit ta c = 0, 2 v 1 = 0, 95 t = 1, 96
Kch thc mu n ti thiu s l




2
2
2 0, 4682
n = t 2 + 1 = 1, 96
+ 1 n = [179, 86] + 1 = 180

0, 12
Vy mun chnh xc khi c lng nng sut la trung bnh khng qu 0,1
vi tin cy 95% th ta cn quan st thm t nht 180 100 = 80 hecta na.
d) Ta kim nh gi thit H0 : m = 11; H1 : m 6= 11.
y l bi ton kim nh gi thit v trung bnh ca tng th trong trng
135

hp n = 100 > 30 v 2 cha bit.

(9, 345 10) 100

(x m0 ) n
=
= 9, 5732
Tnh kim nh t =
s
0, 6842
Vi mc ngha = 5% tra bng 3 ta tm c gi tr t = 1, 96
Ta thy |t| > t nn bc b gi thit H0 .
Vy bng s liu trn cha ph hp vi ti liu ny.
Bi 3. nghin cu nhu cu mt loi hng, ngi ta kho st nhu cu ca
mt hng ny 500 h gia nh. Ta c bng s liu sau:
Nhu cu (kg/thng)
S gia nh

02
70

24
110

46
180

68
100

8 10
40

a) Hy c lng nhu cu v mt hng ny ca ton khu vc trong mt

thng vi tin cy 95%. Gi s khu vc c 5000 h gia nh.
b) Nhng gia nh c nhu cu v mt hng ny ln hn 6 kg/thng l nhng
gia nh c nhu cu cao. Hy c lng t l gia nh c nhu cu cao
trong mt thng vi tin cy 97%
c) Nu cho rng t l gia nh c nhu cu cao trong mt thng l 30% th
c chp nhn c hay khng (vi mc ngha = 0, 03)?
d) Nu cho rng nhu cu trung bnh v mt hng ny ca ton khu vc l 27
tn/thng th c chp nhn c hay khng (vi mc ngha = 0, 05)?
BI GII
Ta vit li bng:
Nhu cu (kg/thng)
S gia nh

1
70

3
110

5
180

7
100

Da vo bng s liu, ta tnh c: C mu n = 500.

k
1X
ni xi = 4, 72
Trung bnh mu: x =
n i=1
v
" k
#
u
u 1
X
lch chun: s = t
ni x2i n (x)2 = 2, 2654
n 1 i=1

9
40

a) Gi m l nhu cu trung bnh ca mt hng ny trong mt thng mi

h gia nh.
y l bi ton c lng trung bnh vi n = 500 > 30 v 2 cha bit:
Vi tin cy 1 = 95%, tra bng 3 ta s tm c gi tr ca t = 1, 96.
136

s
2, 2654
= 0, 1986.
= t = 1, 96
n
500
Khong c lng ca m l x < m < x +

chnh xc

4, 72 0, 1986 < m < 4, 72 + 0, 1986 4, 5214 < m < 4, 9186

Vy vi tin cy 95%, khong c lng nhu cu v mt hng ny ca ton khu
vc trong mt thng l (4, 5214.5000; 4, 9186.5000) kg hay (22, 6; 24, 6) tn.
b) Gi p l t l h gia nh c nhu cu v mt hng ny cao (ln hn 6
kg/thng v p cha bit).
nA
100 + 40
T l mu l f =
=
= 0, 28.
n
500
Vi tin cy 1 = 97%,
rc gi tr ca t = 2, 1701.
r tra bng 3 ta s tm
f (1 f )
0, 28 (1 0, 28)
= 2, 1701
= 0, 0436.
chnh xc = t
n
500
Khong c lng ca p l f < p < f +
0, 28 0, 0436 < p < 0, 28 + 0, 0436 0, 2364 < p < 0, 3236

Vy vi tin cy 97%, khong c lng t l h gia nh c nhu cu v mt

hng ny cao l (0, 2364; 0, 3236).
c) Ta i kim nh gi thit H0 : p = 30% = 0, 3; H1 : p 6= 0, 3.
Vi mc ngha = 0, 03, tra bng
gi tr ca t = 2, 1701.
3 ta s tm c
(f p0 ) n
(0, 28 0, 3) 500
Tnh kim nh t = p
= p
= 0, 9759
p0 (1 p0 )
0, 3 (1 0, 3)
Ta thy |t| < t nn chp nhn gi thit H0 .
Vy vi mc ngha = 0, 03 th t l gia nh c nhu cu v mt hng ny
cao trong mt thng l 30% th c chp nhn c.
27000
= 5, 4; H1 : m 6= 5, 4.
5000
y l bi ton kim nh gi thit v trung bnh ca tng th vi n = 500 > 30
v 2 cha bit.

(x m0 ) n
(4, 72 5, 4) 500
Tnh kim nh t =
=
= 6, 712
s
2, 2654
Vi mc ngha = 5% tra bng 3 ta tm c gi tr t = t = 1, 96
Ta thy |t| > t nn bc b gi thit H0 .
Vy vi mc ngha = 0, 05 th nhu cu trung bnh v mt hng ny ca
ton khu vc l 27 tn/thng l khng chp nhn c.
d) Ta kim nh gi thit H0 : m =

Bi 4. Theo di mc nguyn liu (n v gr) c s dng sn sut ra mt

n v sn phm ca mt nh my. Ngi ta thu c cc s liu quan st sau:
137

20; 22; 21; 20; 22; 21; 20; 19; 20; 21; 22; 19
22; 21; 19; 20; 20; 21; 21; 19; 20; 19; 22; 22
a) Tm khong c lng v s tin trung bnh dng mua loi nguyn
liu ny trong tng qu ca nh my vi tin cy 98%? (Bit gi loi
nguyn liu ny l 900 ngn ng/kg v sn lng ca nh my trong
mt qu l 20000 sn phm)
b) Trc y, mc nguyn liu c s dng sn xut mt sn phm
trung bnh l 22 gr/sn phm. S liu ca mu trn c thu nhp sau
khi p dng cng ngh sn xut mi. Hy cho nhn xt v cng ngh sn
xut mi vi mc ngha 4%?
c) Nu mun c lng s tin trung bnh mua nguyn liu ny trong
tng qu ca nh my t tin cy 99% v chnh xc l 5 triu ng
th cn kch thc mu bao nhiu sn phm?
BI GII
C mu n = 24

1X
ni xi = 20, 5417
Trung bnh mu: x =
n i=1
" k
#
X
1
2
ni x2i n (x) = 1, 2156
Phng sai mu hiu chnh: s2 =
n 1 i=1

lch chun: s = s2 = 1, 1025

a) Gi m l mc nguyn liu trung bnh sn xut ra mt sn phm.
y l bi ton c lng trung bnh vi n = 24 < 30 v 2 cha bit.
Vi tin cy 1 = 98%, tra bng 4 ta s tm c tn1
= t23

0,02 = 2, 5.
s
1, 1025
chnh xc = tn1
= 2, 5
= 0, 5626.

n
24
Khong c lng ca m l x < m < x +
20, 5417 0, 5626 < m < 20, 5417 + 0, 5626 19, 9791 < m < 21, 1043
Vy vi tin cy 98%, khong c lng v s tin mua loi nguyn liu
ny trong tng qu ca nh my l
(19, 9791.20000.0, 9; 21, 1043.20000.0, 9) hay (359624; 379877) ngn ng
b) Ta kim nh gi thit H0 : m = 22; H1 : m 6= 22.
y l bi ton kim nh gi thit v trung bnh ca tng th vi n = 24 < 30
v 2 cha bit.

(x m0 ) n
(20, 5417 22) 24
Tnh kim nh t =
=
= 6, 48
s
1, 1025
138

Vi mc ngha = 4% tra bng 4 ta tm c gi tr tn1

= t23

0,04 = 2, 177
Ta thy |t| > t nn bc b gi thit H0 , tc l m 6= 22.
Ngoi ra, do x < 22 nn ta xem nh m < 22.
Vy cng ngh sn xut mi c mc nguyn liu trung bnh c s dng
sn xut ra mt n v sn phm thp hn cng ngh c.
5000000
= 0, 25
1000 20000
Vi tin cy 1 = 99% tra bng 3 ta tm c gi tr t = 2, 5758
2
1, 2156
Vy n = t2 2 = 2, 57582
= 129 sn phm.

0, 252
c) chnh xc l = 5 triu ng =

Bi 5. Mt cng ty d dnh m mt siu th khu dn c. nh gi kh

nng mua hng ca dn c trong khu vc ngi ta tin hnh iu tra v thu
nhp (triu ng/ngi/thng) ca 100 h chn ngu nhin trong khu vc v
thu c bng s liu sau:
Thu nhp bnh qun
S h

2, 5
9

3, 5
20

5
36

6, 5
20

9
15

a) Hy c lng khong thu nhp bnh qun ca cc h trong mt thng

vi tin cy 95%?
b) Theo b phn tip th th siu th ch hot ng c hiu qu ti khu vc
ny nu thu nhp bnh qun hng thng ca cc h ti thiu l 5 triu
ng/ngi. Vy qua kt qu iu tra trn, cng ty c nn quyt nh
m siu th ti khu dn c ny khng (vi mc ngha 5%)?
BI GII
C mu n = 100

1X
ni xi = 5, 375
Trung bnh mu: x =
n i=1
" k
#
X
1
2
Phng sai mu hiu chnh: s2 =
ni x2i n (x) = 3, 7595
n 1 i=1

lch chun: s = s2 = 1, 9389

a) Gi m l thu nhp bnh qun ca cc h trong mt thng (triu ng/ngi).
y l bi ton c lng trung bnh trong trng hp n = 100 > 30 v 2
cha bit.
Vi tin cy 1 = 95%, tra bng 3 ta s tm c gi tr ca t = 1, 96.
1, 9389
s
= 0, 38.
chnh xc = t = 1, 96
n
100
139

Khong c lng ca m l

x<m<x+

5, 375 0, 38 < m < 5, 375 + 0, 38 4, 995 < m < 5, 755

Vy vi tin cy 95%, khong c lng thu nhp bnh qun ca cc h l
(4, 995; 5, 755) triu ng/ngi/thng.
b) Ta kim nh gi thit H0 : m = 5; H1 : m 6= 5.
y l bi ton kim nh gi thit v trung bnh ca tng th trong trng
hp n = 100 > 30 v 2 cha bit.

(x m0 ) n
(5, 375 5) 100
Tnh kim nh t =
=
= 1, 9341
s
1, 9389
Vi mc ngha = 5% tra bng 3 ta tm c gi tr t = 1, 96
Ta thy |t| < t nn chp nhn gi thit H0 .
Vy thu nhp bnh qun hng thng ca cc h l 5 triu ng/ngi nn cng
ty c nn quyt nh m siu th ti khu dn c ny.
Bi 6. T mt l hng gm 5000 sn phm, ngi ta chn ngu nhin ra 500
sn phm kim tra th thy c 450 sn phm loi A.
a) Hy c lng s sn phm loi A c trong l hng vi tin cy 95%?
b) Nu mun c s sn phm loi A ca l hng t chnh xc nh cu
a) v tin cy 99% th cn kim tra bao nhiu sn phm na?
c) Nu mun c lng t l sn phm loi A ca l hng t c chnh
xc = 2, 5% th tin cy l bao nhiu %?
BI GII
a) y l bi ton c lng t l tng th.
Gi p l t l sn phm loi A c trong l hng.
Theo gi thit, ta c: c mu n = 500
nA
450
T l mu:
f=
=
= 0, 9
n
500
tra bng 3
tin cy 1 = 0, 95
=
t = 1, 96
r
r
f (1 f )
0, 9(1 0, 9)
chnh xc: = t .
= 1, 96.
= 0, 0263.
n
500
Khong c lng ca p l f < p < f + hay
0, 9 0, 0263 < p < 0, 9 + 0, 0263 0, 8737 < p < 0, 9263
Vy vi tin cy 95%, khong c lng s sn phm loi A c trong l hng l
(0, 8737.5000; 0, 9263.5000) hay (4369 sn phm ; 4632 sn phm )
140

b) Gi n l s sn phm cn kim tra.

y l bi ton xc nh kch thc mu trong trng hp c lng t l ca
tng th.
tin cy 1 = 0, 99
Theo cu a) chnh xc:
Kch thc mu n s l
n = t2

tra bng 3

=
= 0, 0263

t = 2, 5758

f (1 f )
0, 9(1 0, 9)
= 2, 57582
= 864
2

0, 02632

Vy ta cn kim tra thm 864 500 = 364 sn phm na.

c) y l bi ton tm tin cy trong trng hp c lng t l ca tng
th.
Theo gi thit, chnh
r xc = 2, 5% = 0, 025
f (1 f )
chnh xc = t .
n

0, 025 500
n
=p
= 1, 86
= t = p
f (1 f )
0, 9(1 0, 9)
Tra bng 1 ta c (t ) = (1, 86) = 0, 4686
Suy ra 1 = 2(t ) = 2.0, 4686 = 0, 9372 = 93, 72%
Vy mun c lng t l sn phm loi A ca l hng t c chnh xc
2, 5% th tin cy l 93, 72%.

Bi 7. iu tra v doanh s bn (triu ng/ngy) ca mt siu th trong 100

ngy, ta c bng s liu sau:
Doanh s
(triu ng/ngy)
S ngy

5060
5

6070
15

7080
20

8090
25

90100
13

100110
15

110120
7

(Gi s doanh s bn ca siu th l i lng ngu nhin c phn phi chun)

a) Nhng ngy c doanh s bn trn 90 triu ng l nhng ngy bn t
hng. Hy c lng t l nhng ngy bn t hng siu th ny vi
tin cy 96%?
b) Hy c lng doanh s bn trung bnh ca mt ngy bn t hng
siu th ny vi tin cy 95%.
c) Nu siu th bo co t l ngy bn t hng ca siu th ny l 50% th
c chp nhn c hay khng (vi mc ngha = 5%)?
141

BI GII
Ta vit li bng:
Doanh s
S ngy

55
5

65
15

75
20

85
25

95
13

105
15

115
7

a) y l bi ton c lng t l tng th.

Gi p l t l nhng ngy bn t hng ca siu th. Ta tm khong c lng
cho p.
Theo gi thit, ta c: c mu n = 100
13 + 15 + 7
nA
=
= 0, 35
T l mu:
f=
n
100
tra bng 3
tin cy 1 = 0, 96
=
tr
= 2, 0537
r
f (1 f )
0, 35(1 0, 35)
chnh xc: = t .
= 2, 0537.
= 0, 098.
n
100
Khong c lng ca p l: f < p < f + hay
0, 35 0, 098 < p < 0, 35 + 0, 098 0, 252 < p < 0, 448
Vy vi tin cy 96%, khong c lng t l nhng ngy bn t hng ca
siu th l (25, 2%; 44, 8%).
b) Gi m l doanh s bn trung bnh ca mt ngy bn t hng siu
th ny (triu ng).
y l bi ton c lng trung bnh trong trng hp n = 35 > 30 v 2 cha
bit. T s liu ca bi ton, ta tnh c:
k
1X
Trung bnh mu x =
ni xi = 103, 2857
n i=1
" k
#
X
1
Phng sai mu hiu chnh s2 =
ni x2i n (x)2 = 55, 7983
n 1 i=1

lch chun s = s2 = 7, 4698

Vi tin cy 1 = 95%, tra bng 3 ta s tm c gi tr ca t = 1, 96.
7, 4698
s
= 2, 4747.
chnh xc = t = 1, 96
n
35
Khong c lng ca m l x < m < x +
103, 28572, 4747 < m < 103, 2857+2, 4747 100, 811 < m < 105, 7604
Vy vi tin cy 95%, khong c lng doanh s bn trung bnh ca mt
ngy bn t hng siu th ny l (100, 811 triu ng; 105, 7604 triu ng)
c) Ta i kim nh gi thit H0 : p = 50% = 0, 5; H1 : p 6= 0, 5.
Vi mc ngha = 5% = 0, 05, tra bng 3 ta s tm c gi tr ca t = 1, 96.
142

(0, 35 0, 5) 100
(f p0 ) n
= p
= 3
Tnh kim nh t = p
p0 (1 p0 )
0, 5 (1 0, 5)
Ta thy |t| > t nn bc b gi thit H0 , tc p 6= 0, 5. V do f < p0 nn ta
xem nh p < p0 .
Vy bo co trn ca siu th l khng chp nhn c.
Bi 8. Kho st v thi gian t hc trong tun ca mt s sinh vin h chnh
quy mt trng Cao ng trong thi gian gn y ngi ta thu c bng
s liu sau:
Thi gian t hc
(gi/tun)
S sinh vin

2-4

4-6

6-8

8-10

10-12

12-14

12-16

18

25

30

22

15

12

a) c lng gi t hc trung bnh ca sinh vin trng ny vi tin cy

95%.
b) Trc y gi t hc trung bnh ca sinh vin h chnh quy trng ny
l 10 gi/tun. Hy cho nhn xt v tnh hnh t hc ca sinh vin h
chnh quy trng ny trong thi gian gn y vi mc ngha 5%?
c) Nhng sinh vin c gi t hc t 10 gi/tun tr ln l nhng sinh vin
chm hc. Hy c lng s sinh vin chm hc ca trng ny vi
tin cy 98% (bit trng c 10.000 sinh vin)?
BI GII
a) Gi m l gi t hc trung bnh trong mt tun ca sinh vin h chnh quy
ca trng.
y l bi ton c lng trung bnh trong trng hp n = 130 > 30 v 2
cha bit. T s liu ca bi ton, ta tnh c:
k
1X
ni xi = 7, 8462
Trung bnh mu x =
n i=1
" k
#
X
1
Phng sai mu hiu chnh s2 =
ni x2i n (x)2 = 11, 2165
n 1 i=1

lch chun s = s2 = 3, 3491

Vi tin cy 1 = 95%, tra bng 3 ta s tm c gi tr ca t = 1, 96.
3, 3491
s
= 0, 5757.
chnh xc = t = 1, 96
n
130
Khong c lng ca m l x < m < x +
7, 8462 0, 5757 < m < 7, 8462 + 0, 5757 7, 2705 < m < 8, 4219
143

Vy vi tin cy 95%, khong c lng gi t hc trung bnh trong mt

tun ca sinh vin h chnh quy ca trng ny l (7, 3 gi/tun; 8, 4 gi/tun).
b) Ta kim nh gi thit H0 : m = 10; H1 : m 6= 10.
y l bi ton kim nh gi thit v trung bnh ca tng th trong trng
hp n = 130 > 30 v 2 cha bit.

(x m0 ) n
(7, 8462 10) 130
Tnh kim nh t =
=
= 7, 3324
s
3, 3491
Vi mc ngha = 5% tra bng 3 ta tm c gi tr t = 1, 96
Ta thy |t| > t nn bc b gi thit H0 , tc l m 6= 10. Do x < 10 nn ta xem
nh m < 10
Vy gi t hc trung bnh trong mt tun ca sinh vin trng ny trong thi
gian gn y gim st.
c) y l bi ton c lng t l tng th.
Gi p l t l sinh vin chm hc ca trng. Ta tm khong c lng cho p.
Theo gi thit, ta c: c mu n = 130
nA
15 + 12 + 8
T l mu:
f=
=
= 0, 2692
n
130
tra bng 3
tin cy 1 = 0, 98
=
tr
= 2, 3263
r
f (1 f )
0, 2692(1 0, 2692)
= 2, 3263.
= 0, 0905.
chnh xc: = t .
n
130
Khong c lng ca p l: f < p < f + hay
0, 2692 0, 0905 < p < 0, 2692 + 0, 0905 0, 1787 < p < 0, 3597
Vy vi tin cy 98%, khong c lng s sinh vin chm hc ca trng l
(0, 1787.10000; 0, 3597.10000) hay (1787; 3597) sinh vin
Bi 9. Nu my ng bao hot ng bnh thng th trng lng ca mt loi
sn phm l i lng ngu nhin phn phi theo quy lut chun vi trng
lng trung bnh l 80 gr. Kim tra trng lng ca mt s sn phm do my
sn xut, ta c kt qu (n v: gram):
Trng lng
S sn phm

75
2

78
6

80
9

82
5

85
3

a) My ng bao c xem l hot ng bnh thng nu n sn xut ra

nhng sn phm c trng lng ng nh quy nh (80 gr). Vi mc
ngha 5% hy cho bit my ng bao ny hot ng c bnh thng hay
khng?
144

b) c lng trng lng trung bnh ca loi sn phm ny vi tin cy

98%.
BI GII
a) Gi m l trng lng trung bnh ca sn phm do my ng bao.
y l bi ton kim nh trung bnh vi n = 25 < 30 v 2 cha bit.
Ta kim nh gi thit H0 : m = 80; H1 : m 6= 80.
T s liu ca bi ton, ta tnh c:
k
1X
ni xi = 80, 12
Trung bnh mu x =
n i=1
" k
#
X
1
2
ni x2i n (x) = 7, 0267
Phng sai mu hiu chnh s2 =
n 1 i=1

lch chun s = s2 = 2, 6508

(x m0 ) n
(80, 12 80) 25
Tnh kim nh t =
=
= 0, 2263
s
2, 6508
Vi mc ngha = 5% tra bng 4 ta tm c gi tr tn1
= t24

0,05 = 2, 064
Ta thy |t| < t nn chp nhn gi thit H0 , tc l m = 80.
Vy my ng bao ny hot ng c bnh thng.
b) y l bi ton c lng trung bnh vi n = 25 < 30 v 2 cha bit.
Vi tin cy 1 = 98%, tra bng 4 ta tm c: tn1
= t24

0,02 = 2, 492.
s
2, 6508
= 1, 3212.
chnh xc = t = 2, 492
n
25
Khong c lng ca m l x < m < x +
80, 12 1, 3212 < m < 80, 12 + 1, 3212 78, 7988 < m < 81, 4412
Vy vi tin cy 98%, khong c lng trng lng trung bnh ca sn phm
do my ng bao l (78, 8 sn phm; 81, 4 sn phm).
Bi 10. Kho st v trng lng ca mt loi tri cy, ta thu c bng s
liu sau:
Trng lng
(gr)
S tri

200
-300
40

300
-400
130

400
-500
110

500
-600
80

600
-700
30

700
-800
10

a) Nhng tri cy c trng lng trn 500 gr l tri loi I. Hy c lng

trng lng trung bnh ca tri loi I vi tin cy 95%?
b) Nu cho rng t l tri loi I l 40% th c chp nhn c khng (vi
mc ngha 5%)?
145

c) Nu cho rng trng lng trung bnh ca mt tri l 500 gr th c chp

nhn c khng (vi mc ngha 2%)?
BI GII
a) Gi m l trng lng trung bnh ca tri cy loi I.
y l bi ton c lng trung bnh vi n = 120 > 30 v 2 cha bit:
T s liu ca bi ton, ta tnh
k
1X
ni xi = 591, 6667
Trung bnh mu x =
n i=1
" k
#
X
1
Phng sai mu hiu chnh s2 =
ni x2i n (x)2 = 4131, 6527
n 1 i=1

lch chun s = s2 = 64, 2779

Vi tin cy 1 = 95%, tra bng 3 ta s tm c gi tr ca t = 1, 96.
s
64, 2779
chnh xc = t = 1, 96
= 11, 5008.
n
120
Khong c lng ca m l x < m < x +
591, 6667 11, 5008 < m < 591, 6667 + 11, 5008
580, 1659 < m < 603, 1675

Vy vi tin cy 95%, khong c lng trng lng trung bnh ca tri cy

loi I l (580, 2 gr; 603, 2 gr).
b) Gi p l t l tri cy loi I.
Theo gi thit, ta c: c mu n = 400
120
nA
=
= 0, 3
T l mu:
f=
n
400
Ta i kim nh gi thit H0 : p = 40% = 0, 4; H1 : p 6= 0, 4.
Vi mc ngha = 5% = 0, 05,
tra bng 3 ta s tm c
gi tr ca t = 1, 96.
(0, 3 0, 4) 400
(f p0 ) n
= 4, 08
= p
Tnh kim nh t = p
p0 (1 p0 )
0, 4 (1 0, 4)
Ta thy |t| > t nn bc b gi thit H0 , tc p 6= 0, 4.
Ngoi ra, do f < p0 nn ta xem nh p < p0 .
Vy nhn nh cu b) l khng chp nhn c.

c) Gi m l trng lng trung bnh ca tri cy ny.

y l bi ton kim nh trung bnh vi n = 400 > 30 v 2 cha bit:
T s liu ca bi ton, ta tnh
k
1X
Trung bnh mu x =
ni xi = 440
n i=1
v
" k
#
u
X
u 1
2
lch chun s = t
ni x2i n (x) = 120, 1503
n 1 i=1
146

Ta kim nh gi thit H0 : m =

500; H1 : m 6= 500.
(440 500) 400
(x m0 ) n
=
= 9, 99
Tnh kim nh t =
s
120, 1503
Vi mc ngha = 2% tra bng 3 ta tm c gi tr t = 2, 3263.

Ta thy |t| > t nn bc b gi thit H0 , tc l m 6= 500.

Vy nhn nh cu c) l khng chp nhn c.

5.4

Bi tp t gii

Bi 1. Quan st nng sut ca 100 cng nhn trong mt x nghip ngi ta

tnh c nng sut trung bnh ca mt cng nhn mu ny l: x = 13, 5
sn phm/ngy v phng sai mu s2x = 16.
a) c lng nng sut trung bnh ca mt cng nhn trong x nghip ny
vi tin cy 95%.
b) Mun c lng nng sut trung bnh ca mt cng nhn trong x nghip
vi tin cy 99% th chnh xc l bao nhiu?
c) Nu ban qun l ca x nghip bo co nng sut trung bnh ca mt
cng nhn trong x nghip l 15 sn phm/ngy th c chp nhn c
hay khng (vi mc ngha 2%)?
Bi 2. Kt qu quan st hm lng Vitamin C (%) ca mt loi tri cy ta c
s liu cho bng sau:
Hm lng
Vitamin C
S tri

6-8

8-10

10-12

12-14

14-16

16-18

18-20

10

15

18

25

12

a) Hy c lng hm lng Vitamin C trung bnh trong mt tri vi

tin cy 95%?
b) Quy c nhng tri c hm lng Vitamin C trn 12% tr ln l tri loi
I. Hy c lng t l tri loi I vi tin cy 98%?
c) Nu mun c lng t l tri loi I vi chnh xc = 5% v tin
cy 95% th cn quan st thm bao nhiu tri na?
Bi 3. Ly 18 mu thp ca mt nh my sn xut thp kim tra cht
lng. Kt qu kim tra v sc chu lc R (n v tnh l kg/cm2 ) nh sau:
12, 1
11, 2

10, 5
12, 6

13, 4
12, 5

10, 0
11, 7

11, 3
12, 8

147

12, 8
11, 6

13, 2
14, 1

12, 4
13, 2

12, 5
13, 7

a) Hy c lng sc chu lc trung bnh ca thp do nh my ny sn sut

vi tin cy 96%
b) Nu c bo co cho rng sc chu lc trung bnh ca thp do nh my
ny sn xut l 10, 5(kg/cm3 ) th c chp nhn c hay khng (vi mc
ngha 5%)?
Bi 4. Mt l hng c 4000 sn phm. Chn ngu nhin 200 sn phm kim
tra th thy c 165 sn phm loi A.
a) Hy c lng s sn phm loi A c trong l hng vi tin cy 98%?
b) Nu mun c lng s sn phm loi A ca l hng t chnh xc
= 140 sn phm v tin cy 95% th phi kim tra bao nhiu sn
phm?
Bi 5. Nm trc, t l sinh vin chnh quy ca mt trng i hc t mn
ton cao cp l 68%. Sau khi nh trng trin khai phng php ging dy
mi, ngi ta tin hnh kho st kt qu mn thi ton cao cp ca 150 sinh
vin chn ngu nhin th thy c 35 sinh vin thi khng t. Hy cho kt lun
v phng php ging dy mi ny?
Bi 6. Theo s liu iu tra mt vng 5 nm trc thy c 10% dn s
tui trng thnh khng bit ch. Nm nay ngi ta tin hnh iu tra 500
ngi vng ny th thy c 28 ngi tui trng thnh khng bit ch.
Vi tin cy 5%, hy a ra nhn xt v t l dn s tui trng thnh
khng bit ch so vi 5 nm trc y vng ny?
Bi 7. Theo di mc s dng nguyn liu sn sut 1 n v sn phm
mt nh my, ngi ta thu c bng s liu sau:
Mc nguyn liu
(gr/sn phm)
S sn phm

2729
13

2931
22

3133
35

3335
20

3537
10

a) Hy c lng mc nguyn liu trung bnh s dng sn sut 1 n v

sn phm vi tin cy 95%?
b) Trc y mc nguyn liu trung bnh c s dng sn xut l 33
gr/sn phm. S liu ca mu trn c thu thp sau khi nh my p
dng mt cng ngh sn xut mi. Hy cho nhn xt v cng ngh sn
xut mi vi mc ngha 5%?
Bi 8. Sau khi tin hnh mt chin dch qung co, theo di s lng bn c
(lt/ngy) v mt hng du n trong mt s ngy mt siu th, ta c bng s
148

liu sau:
Lng hng
bn c
S ngy

190210
5

210220
12

220230
25

230240
30

240250
23

250260
16

260280
9

a) Hy c lng doanh s bn trung bnh v mt hng du n ny trong

mt ngy siu th ny vi tin cy 99%?
b) Trc y doanh s bn trung bnh ca mt hng du n l 4,5 triu
ng/ngy . Vi mc ngha 3%, hy cho nhn xt v chin dch qung
co ny (bit gi bn 1 lt du n l 20 ngn ng)?
c) Nhng ngy bn c trn 240 lt l nhng ngy c doanh thu kh. Hy
c lng s ngy c doanh thu kh ca siu th ny trong mt nm (360
ngy)?
Bi 9. Trng lng ca mt loi sn phm theo quy nh l 6kg. Sau mt thi
gian sn xut, ngi ta tin hnh kim tra 26 sn phm v tnh c trung
bnh mu 5,95 kg v lch chun mu 1,23 kg.
Sn xut c xem l bnh thng nu cc sn phm sn xut ra c trng
lng trung bnh bng trng lng quy nh l 6 kg. Vi mc ngha 5%, hy
cho kt lun v tnh hnh sn xut?

149

MT S THI THAM KHO

1
Cu 1.
a) Mt l hng gm 1000 sn phm, trong c 400 sn phm loi A. Ly
ngu nhin ng thi 10 sn phm t l hng ny. Tnh xc sut trong
10 sn phm ly ra c t nht 2 sn phm loi A.
b) Cho X N (15, 9). Tm P (8 < X 12).

Cu 2. C hai kin hng, mi kin cha 10 sn phm. Kin th nht c 6 sn

phm loi I, kin th hai c 7 sn phm loi I cn li l sn phm loi II. Ly
ngu nhin t mi kin hng ra 1 sn phm. Gi X l s sn phm loi I c
ly ra.
a) Lp bng phn phi xc sut ca X.
b) Tm k vng v phng sai ca X.
Cu 3. Kho st v thu nhp (triu ng/nm) ca mt s ngi mt cng
ty, ngi ta thu c bng s liu sau:
Thu nhp

30-40

41-45

46-50

51-55

56-60

61-70

S ngi

20

50

130

110

60

30

a) Nhng ngi c mc thu nhp di 56 triu ng/nm l nhng ngi

c thu nhp thp. Hy c lng t l ngi c thu nhp thp ca cng
ty vi tin cy 96%?
b) Nu cng ty bo co rng mc thu nhp trung bnh ca mt ngi l 55
triu ng/nm th c chp nhn c khng vi mc ngha 5%?

2
Cu 1.
a) Cho X B(6; 0, 4). Tnh P (X 4).

150

b) Nhu cu hng nm (ngn sn phm/nm) v mt loi hng A l i lng

ngu nhin lin tc X c hm mt xc sut nh sau:
( 30 x
nu x (0, 30)
f (x) =
450
0
nu x
/ (0, 30)
Tm xc sut nhu cu v mt hng A ny khng vt qu 12 ngn
sn phm trong mt nm.
Cu 2. Hp th nht c 7 sn phm loi I v 3 sn phm loi II. Hp th hai
c 6 sn phm loi I v 3 sn phm loi II. Ly ngu nhin 1 sn phm hp
th nht b vo hp th hai. Sau , t hp th hai ly ngu nhin ra 3 sn
phm. Gi X l s sn phm loi I trong 3 sn phm ly ra t hp th hai.
a) Lp bng phn phi xc sut ca X.
b) Tm k vng v phng sai ca Y = 5X + 12.
Cu 3. S liu thng k v doanh s bn hng (triu ng/ngy) ca mt siu
th trong mt s ngy c cho bng s liu sau:
Doanh s

25

30

39

42

48

55

60

65

72

S ngy

12

25

35

25

15

12

10

a) Hy c lng doanh s bn hng trung bnh trong mt ngy ca siu

th ny vi tin cy 97%?
b) Nhng ngy c doanh s bn hng t 60 triu ng/ngy tr ln l nhng
ngy bn t hng. Mt bo co ca siu th cho rng t l nhng ngy
t hng l trn 20% th c chp nhn c khng vi mc ngha 4%?

3
Cu 1.
a) Ba sinh vin cng lm bi thi mt cch c lp. Xc sut lm c bi
ca sinh vin A l 0,8; ca sinh vin B l 0,65; ca sinh vin C l 0,7.
Tnh xc sut c nhiu nht hai sinh vin lm c bi.
b) Cho X H(500; 80; 20). Tnh P (X 2).

Cu 2. Hp th nht c 8 l thuc tt v 3 l qu hn s dng. Hp th hai

c 9 l thuc tt v 4 l qu hn s dng. Ly ngu nhin 1 hp; ri t chn
ngu nhin ra 2 l thuc. Gi X l s l thuc tt trong 2 l thuc ly ra.
151

a) Lp bng phn phi xc sut ca X.

b) Tm trung bnh s sn phm loi I c ly ra v V arX.
Cu 3. S liu thng k v doanh s bn hng (triu ng/ngy) ca mt siu
th trong mt s ngy c cho bng s liu sau:
Doanh s

20

32

36

44

48

54

62

65

70

S ngy

13

25

35

24

17

15

10

a) Nhng ngy c doanh s bn hng t 65 triu ng/ngy tr ln l nhng

ngy bn t hng. Hy c lng t l nhng ngy bn t hng siu
th ny vi tin cy 95%?
b) Trc y doanh s bn hng ca siu th l 35 triu ng/ngy. S liu
bng trn c thu thp sau khi siu th p dng mt phng thc bn
hng mi. Hy cho nhn xt v phng thc bn hng mi ny vi mc
ngha 2%?

4
Cu 1.
a) T l ngi tham gia bo him y t mt vng l 80%. iu tra ngu
nhin 100 ngi trong vng ny. Tnh xc sut trong 100 ngi c
iu tra, c khng qu 72 ngi tham gia bo him.
b) Tnh E(4X + 5), bit X l i lng ngu nhin lin tc c hm mt
xc sut:
( 2
nu x [1, 2]
f (x) =
x2
0
nu x
/ [1, 2]
Cu 2. Mt kin hng c 25 sn phm, trong c 18 sn phm loi I cn li
l sn phm loi II. Ly ngu nhin ng thi ra 5 sn phm. Gi X l s sn
phm loi I c ly ra.
a) Tm lut phn phi xc sut ca X.
b) Gi s gi bn 1 sn phm loi I l 10000 ng v loi II 8500 ng/sn
phm. Tm s tin trung bnh thu c khi bn 5 sn phm ly ra.
Cu 3. Theo di s lng (lt/ngy) bn c v mt hng du n trong mt
s ngy mt siu th, ngi ta c s liu cho bng sau:

152

Lng hng
bn c

190210

210220

220230

230240

240250

250260

260280

S ngy

15

25

30

24

16

10

a) Nhng ngy bn c trn 240 lt/ngy l nhng ngy c doanh thu kh.
Hy c lng s ngy c doanh thu kh ca siu th ny trong mt nm
vi tin cy 95%?
b) Gi s sau siu th p dng mt chin dch qung co lm cho doanh
s bn hng trung bnh ca mt hng du n l 4,5 triu ng/ngy. Vi
mc ngha 3%, hy kt lun xem chin dch qung co c tc dng lm
tng doanh s bn hng trung bnh ca mt hng du n ln hay khng?
Cho bit gi bn du n l 18000 ng/lt.

5
Cu 1.
a) Mt l hng gm 500 sn phm, trong c 80 sn phm km cht
lng. Mt thng li kim tra bng cch ly ngu nhin 20 sn phm
theo phng thc c hon li. Nu trong 20 sn phm ly ra c khng
qu 2 sn phm km cht lng th ngi ny s mua l hng. Tnh xc
sut l hng c mua.
b) Cho i lng ngunhin lin tc X c hm mt xc sut l
5(1 x)4 nu x (0, 1)
f (x) =
0
nu x
/ (0, 1)
1
Tnh P ( 2 X 2).

Cu 2. Mt kin hng c 16 sn phm loi I v 4 sn phm loi II. Ln lt

ly ngu nhin c hon li 4 sn phm. Gi X l s sn phm loi I ly ra.
a) Tm lut phn phi xc sut ca X.
b) Tm k vng v phng sai ca Y = 2X + 15.
Cu 3. Kho st mc tiu th in X (KW/thng) ca 400 h gia nh mt
thnh ph A c 900000 h dn, ngi ta thu c bng s liu:
X

80-120

120-140

140-160

160-180

180-220

S h

50

90

140

80

40

153

a) Hy c lng mc tiu th in trung bnh thnh ph ny trong mt

nm vi tin cy 95%?
b) Nhng h c mc tiu th in trn 160 KW/thng l nhng h c mc
tiu th in cao. Mt bo co cho bit t l h dn c mc tiu th
in cao thnh ph l 28%. Hy cho nhn xt v bo co ny vi mc
ngha 2%?

6
Cu 1.
a) Mt x th bn 3 vin n vo mt mc tiu mt cch c lp. Xc sut
bn trt mi ln bn l nh nhau v bng 0,25. Tnh xc sut mc
tiu b trng n.
b) Cho X N (4; 0, 36). Tnh P (3 < X < 6).

Cu 2. Mt kin hng c 16 sn phm, trong c 10 sn phm loi I, cn li

l sn phm loi II. Khi bn mt sn phm loi I th li c 6000 ng, bn
mt sn phm loi II th li 4500 ng. Ly ngu nhin ng thi 3 sn phm
bn. Gi X l s tin li thu c.
a) Tm lut phn phi xc sut ca X.
b) Tm k vng v phng sai X.
Cu 3. Kho st mc tiu th in X (KW/thng) ca 400 h gia nh mt
thnh ph A c 900000 h dn, ngi ta thu c bng s liu:
X

80-120

120-140

140-160

160-180

180-220

S h

55

90

140

85

40

a) Nhng h c mc tiu th in trn 160 KW/thng l nhng h c mc

tiu th in cao. Hy c lng s h gia nh c mc tiu th in cao
ca thnh ph vi tin cy 98%?
b) Mt ngi ni rng mc tiu th in trung bnh ca mt h dn thnh
ph ny trong mt thng l 150KW/thng th c chp nhn c khng
vi mc ngha 5%?

154

PH LC: BNG TRA THNG K

BNG 1
t
1
x
e 2 dt

2 0
x

Tch phn Laplace:

0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0

0
0.0000
0.0398
0.0793
0.1179
0.1554
0.1915
0.2257
0.2580
0.2881
0.3159
0.3413
0.3643
0.3849
0.4032
0.4192
0.4332
0.4452
0.4554
0.4641
0.4713
0.4772
0.4821
0.4861
0.4893
0.4918
0.4938
0.4953
0.4965
0.4974
0.4981
0.4987

1
0.0040
0.0438
0.0832
0.1217
0.1591
0.1950
0.2291
0.2611
0.2910
0.3186
0.3438
0.3665
0.3869
0.4049
0.4207
0.4345
0.4463
0.4564
0.4649
0.4719
0.4778
0.4826
0.4864
0.4896
0.4920
0.4940
0.4955
0.4966
0.4975
0.4982
0.4987

2
0.0080
0.0478
0.0871
0.1255
0.1628
0.1985
0.2324
0.2642
0.2939
0.3212
0.3461
0.3686
0.3888
0.4066
0.4222
0.4357
0.4474
0.4573
0.4656
0.4726
0.4783
0.4830
0.4868
0.4898
0.4922
0.4941
0.4956
0.4967
0.4976
0.4982
0.4987

3
0.0120
0.0517
0.0910
0.1293
0.1664
0.2019
0.2357
0.2673
0.2967
0.3238
0.3485
0.3708
0.3907
0.4082
0.4236
0.4370
0.4484
0.4582
0.4664
0.4732
0.4788
0.4834
0.4871
0.4901
0.4925
0.4943
0.4957
0.4968
0.4977
0.4983
0.4988

4
0.0160
0.0557
0.0948
0.1331
0.1700
0.2054
0.2389
0.2704
0.2995
0.3264
0.3508
0.3729
0.3925
0.4099
0.4251
0.4382
0.4495
0.4591
0.4671
0.4738
0.4793
0.4838
0.4875
0.4904
0.4927
0.4945
0.4959
0.4969
0.4977
0.4984
0.4988

155

5
0.0199
0.0596
0.0987
0.1368
0.1736
0.2088
0.2422
0.2734
0.3023
0.3289
0.3531
0.3749
0.3944
0.4115
0.4265
0.4394
0.4505
0.4599
0.4678
0.4744
0.4798
0.4842
0.4878
0.4906
0.4929
0.4946
0.4960
0.4970
0.4978
0.4984
0.4989

6
0.0239
0.0636
0.1026
0.1406
0.1772
0.2123
0.2454
0.2764
0.3051
0.3315
0.3554
0.3770
0.3962
0.4131
0.4279
0.4406
0.4515
0.4608
0.4686
0.4750
0.4803
0.4846
0.4881
0.4909
0.4931
0.4948
0.4961
0.4971
0.4979
0.4985
0.4989

7
0.0279
0.0675
0.1064
0.1443
0.1808
0.2157
0.2486
0.2794
0.3078
0.3340
0.3577
0.3790
0.3980
0.4147
0.4292
0.4418
0.4525
0.4616
0.4693
0.4756
0.4808
0.4850
0.4884
0.4911
0.4932
0.4949
0.4962
0.4972
0.4979
0.4985
0.4989

8
0.0319
0.0714
0.1103
0.1480
0.1844
0.2190
0.2517
0.2823
0.3106
0.3365
0.3599
0.3810
0.3997
0.4162
0.4306
0.4429
0.4535
0.4625
0.4699
0.4761
0.4812
0.4854
0.4887
0.4913
0.4934
0.4951
0.4963
0.4973
0.4980
0.4986
0.4990

9
0.0359
0.0753
0.1141
0.1517
0.1879
0.2224
0.2549
0.2852
0.3133
0.3389
0.3621
0.3830
0.4015
0.4177
0.4319
0.4441
0.4545
0.4633
0.4706
0.4767
0.4817
0.4857
0.4890
0.4916
0.4936
0.4952
0.4964
0.4974
0.4981
0.4986
0.4990

BNG 1 (tip theo)

3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
4.0

0.4990
0.4993
0.4995
0.4997
0.4998
0.4998
0.4999
0.4999
0.5000
0.5000

0.4991
0.4993
0.4995
0.4997
0.4998
0.4998
0.4999
0.4999
0.5000
0.5000

0.4991
0.4994
0.4995
0.4997
0.4998
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.5000
0.5000

0.4991
0.4994
0.4996
0.4997
0.4998
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.5000
0.5000

0.4992
0.4994
0.4996
0.4997
0.4998
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.5000
0.5000

V d:

0,40 0,1554

1,96 0,4750

Lu :

Nu x 4,09 th ly x 0,5

156

0.4992
0.4994
0.4996
0.4997
0.4998
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.5000
0.5000

0.4992
0.4994
0.4996
0.4997
0.4998
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.5000
0.5000

0.4992
0.4995
0.4996
0.4997
0.4998
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.5000
0.5000

0.4993
0.4995
0.4996
0.4997
0.4998
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.5000
0.5000

0.4993
0.4995
0.4997
0.4998
0.4998
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.5000
0.5000

2,58 2,58 0,4951

BNG 2

0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
4.0

Hm mt Gauss:

1 2x
x
e
2

0
0.3989
0.3970
0.3910
0.3814
0.3683
0.3521
0.3332
0.3123
0.2897
0.2661
0.2420
0.2179
0.1942
0.1714
0.1497
0.1295
0.1109
0.0940
0.0790
0.0656
0.0540
0.0440
0.0355
0.0283
0.0224
0.0175
0.0136
0.0104
0.0079
0.0060
0.0044
0.0033
0.0024
0.0017
0.0012
0.0009
0.0006
0.0004
0.0003
0.0002
0.0001

3
0.3988
0.3956
0.3885
0.3778
0.3637
0.3467
0.3271
0.3056
0.2827
0.2589
0.2347
0.2107
0.1872
0.1647
0.1435
0.1238
0.1057
0.0893
0.0748
0.0620
0.0508
0.0413
0.0332
0.0264
0.0208
0.0163
0.0126
0.0096
0.0073
0.0055
0.0040
0.0030
0.0022
0.0016
0.0011
0.0008
0.0005
0.0004
0.0003
0.0002
0.0001

1
0.3989
0.3965
0.3902
0.3802
0.3668
0.3503
0.3312
0.3101
0.2874
0.2637
0.2396
0.2155
0.1919
0.1691
0.1476
0.1276
0.1092
0.0925
0.0775
0.0644
0.0529
0.0431
0.0347
0.0277
0.0219
0.0171
0.0332
0.0101
0.0077
0.0058
0.0043
0.0032
0.0023
0.0017
0.0012
0.0008
0.0006
0.0004
0.0003
0.0002
0.0001

2
0.3989
0.3961
0.3894
0.3790
0.3653
0.3485
0.3292
0.3079
0.2850
0.2613
0.2371
0.2131
0.1895
0.1669
0.1456
0.1257
0.1074
0.0909
0.0761
0.0632
0.0519
0.0422
0.0339
0.0270
0.0213
0.0167
0.0129
0.0099
0.0075
0.0056
0.0042
0.0031
0.0022
0.0016
0.0012
0.0008
0.0006
0.0004
0.0003
0.0002
0.0001

4
0.3986
0.3951
0.3876
0.3765
0.3621
0.3448
0.3251
0.3034
0.2803
0.2565
0.2323
0.2083
0.1849
0.1626
0.1415
0.1219
0.1040
0.0878
0.0734
0.0608
0.0498
0.0404
0.0325
0.0258
0.0203
0.0158
0.0122
0.0093
0.0071
0.0053
0.0039
0.0029
0.0021
0.0015
0.0011
0.0008
0.0005
0.0004
0.0003
0.0002
0.0001

V d:

1,09 0,2203

Lu :

Nu x 4,09 th ly x 0,0001

5
0.3984
0.3945
0.3867
0.3752
0.3605
0.3429
0.3230
0.3011
0.2780
0.2541
0.2299
0.2059
0.1826
0.1604
0.1394
0.1200
0.1023
0.0863
0.0721
0.0596
0.0488
0.0396
0.0317
0.0252
0.0198
0.0154
0.0119
0.0091
0.0069
0.0051
0.0038
0.0028
0.0020
0.0015
0.0010
0.0007
0.0005
0.0004
0.0002
0.0002
0.0001

6
0.3982
0.3939
0.3857
0.3739
0.3589
0.3410
0.3209
0.2989
0.2756
0.2516
0.2275
0.2036
0.1804
0.1582
0.1374
0.1182
0.1006
0.0848
0.0707
0.0584
0.0478
0.0387
0.0310
0.0246
0.0194
0.0151
0.0116
0.0088
0.0067
0.0050
0.0037
0.0027
0.0020
0.0014
0.0010
0.0007
0.0005
0.0003
0.0002
0.0002
0.0001

2,80 2,80 0,0079

157

7
0.3980
0.3932
0.3847
0.3725
0.3572
0.3391
0.3187
0.2966
0.2732
0.2492
0.2251
0.2012
0.1781
0.1561
0.1354
0.1163
0.0989
0.0833
0.0694
0.0573
0.0468
0.0379
0.0303
0.0241
0.0189
0.0147
0.0113
0.0086
0.0065
0.0048
0.0036
0.0026
0.0019
0.0014
0.0010
0.0007
0.0005
0.0003
0.0002
0.0002
0.0001

8
0.3977
0.3925
0.3836
0.3712
0.3555
0.3372
0.3166
0.2943
0.2709
0.2468
0.2227
0.1989
0.1758
0.1539
0.1334
0.1145
0.0973
0.0818
0.0681
0.0562
0.0459
0.0371
0.0297
0.0235
0.0184
0.0143
0.0110
0.0084
0.0063
0.0047
0.0035
0.0025
0.0018
0.0013
0.0009
0.0007
0.0005
0.0003
0.0002
0.0001
0.0001

9
0.3973
0.3918
0.3825
0.3697
0.3538
0.3352
0.3144
0.2920
0.2685
0.2444
0.2203
0.1965
0.1736
0.1518
0.1315
0.1127
0.0957
0.0804
0.0669
0.0551
0.0449
0.0363
0.0290
0.0229
0.0180
0.0139
0.0107
0.0081
0.0061
0.0046
0.0034
0.0025
0.0018
0.0013
0.0009
0.0006
0.0004
0.0003
0.0002
0.0001
0.0001

BNG 3
Phn v | u | : P | U | t

0.50
0.51
0.52
0.53
0.54
0.55
0.56
0.57
0.58
0.59
0.60
0.61
0.62
0.63
0.64
0.65
0.66
0.67
0.68
0.69
0.70

V d:

t
0.6745
0.6903
0.7063
0.7225
0.7388
0.7554
0.7722
0.7892
0.8064
0.8239
0.8416
0.8596
0.8779
0.8965
0.9154
0.9346
0.9542
0.9741
0.9945
1.0152
1.0364

0.710
0.720
0.730
0.740
0.750
0.760
0.770
0.780
0.790
0.800
0.810
0.820
0.830
0.840
0.850
0.860
0.870
0.880
0.890
0.900
0.905

vi U ~ N 0,1

t
1.0581
1.0803
1.1031
1.1264
1.1503
1.1750
1.2004
1.2265
1.2536
1.2816
1.3106
1.3408
1.3722
1.4015
1.4395
1.4758
1.5141
1.5548
1.5982
1.6449
1.6696

0,90 t 1,6449 1,65

0,95 t 1,9600
0,99 t 2,5758 2,58

158

0.910
0.915
0.920
0.925
0.930
0.935
0.940
0.945
0.950
0.955
0.960
0.965
0.970
0.971
0.972
0.973
0.974
0.975
0.976
0.977
0.978

t
1.6954
1.7224
1.7507
1.7805
1.8119
1.8453
1.8808
1.9189
1.9600
2.0047
2.0537
2.1084
2.1701
2.1835
2.1973
2.2115
2.2262
2.2414
2.2571
2.2734
2.2904

0.979
0.980
0.981
0.982
0.983
0.984
0.985
0.986
0.987
0.988
0.989
0.990
0.991
0.992
0.993
0.994
0.995
0.996
0.997
0.998
0.999

t
2.3080
2.3263
2.3455
2.3656
2.3867
2.4089
2.4324
2.4573
2.4838
2.5121
2.5427
2.5758
2.6121
2.6521
2.6968
2.7478
2.8071
2.8782
2.9677
3.0902
3.2905

BNG 4
Phn v t :

P T tn1 vi T St n

n 1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30

V d 1:

0,005
127,3211
14,0892
7,4532
5,5975
4,7733
4,3168
4,0294
3,8325
3,6896
3,5814
3,4966
3,4284
3,3725
3,3257
3,2860
3,2520
3,2224
3,1966
3,1737
3,1534
3,1352
3,1188
3,1040
3,0905
3,0782
3,0669
3,0565
3,0470
3,0380
3,0298

0,01

0,02

0,025

0,03

0,04

0,05

63,6559
9,9250
5,8408
4,6041
4,0321
3,7074
3,4995
3,3554
3,2498
3,1693
3,1058
3,0545
3,0123
2,9768
2,9467
2,9208
2,8982
2,8784
2,8609
2,8453
2,8314
2,8188
2,8073
2,7970
2,7874
2,7787
2,7707
2,7633
2,7564
2,7500

31,8210
6,9645
4,5407
3,7469
3,3649
3,1427
2,9979
2,8965
2,8214
2,7638
2,7181
2,6810
2,6503
2,6245
2,6025
2,5835
2,5669
2,5524
2,5395
2,5280
2,5176
2,5083
2,4999
2,4922
2,4851
2,4786
2,4727
2,4671
2,4620
2,4573

25,4519
6,2054
4,1765
3,4954
3,1634
2,9687
2,8412
2,7515
2,6850
2,6338
2,5913
2,5600
2,5326
2,5096
2,4899
2,4729
2,4581
2,4450
2,4334
2,4231
2,4138
2,4055
2,3979
2,3910
2,3846
2,3788
2,3734
2,3685
2,3638
2,3596

21,2051
5,6428
3,8961
3,2976
3,0029
2,8289
2,7146
2,6338
2,5738
2,5275
2,4907
2,4607
2,4358
2,4149
2,3970
2,3815
2,3681
2,3562
2,3457
2,3362
2,3278
2,3202
2,3132
2,3069
2,3011
2,2958
2,2909
2,2864
2,2822
2,2783

15,8945
4,8487
3,4819
2,9985
2,7565
2,6122
2,5168
2,4490
2,3984
2,3593
2,3281
2,3027
2,2816
2,2638
2,2485
2,2354
2,2238
2,2137
2,2047
2,1967
2,1894
2,1829
2,1770
2,1715
2,1666
2,1620
2,1578
2,1539
2,1503
2,1470

12,7062
4,3027
3,1824
2,7765
2,5706
2,4469
2,3646
2,3060
2,2622
2,2281
2,2010
2,1788
2,1604
2,1448
2,1315
2,1199
2,1098
2,1009
2,0930
2,0860
2,0796
2,0739
2,0687
2,0639
2,0595
2,0555
2,0518
2,0484
2,0452
2,0423

Bit tm tn 1 : n 5 , 0,03 tn1 3, 2976

n 25 , 0,01 tn1 2,7970

Bit tn 1 tm : n 20 , tn1 2,1 2,0930 0,05

n 29 , tn1 2,29 2,2864 0,03

159

BNG 4 (tip theo)

Phn v t :

n 1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30

V d 2:

P T tn1 vi T St n

0,06

0,07

0,075

0,08

0,09

0,1

0,15

0,2

10,5789
3,8964
2,9505
2,6008
2,4216
2,3133
2,2409
2,1892
2,1504
2,1202
2,0961
2,0764
2,0600
2,0462
2,0343
2,0240
2,0150
2,0071
2,0000
1,9937
1,9880
1,9829
1,9783
1,9740
1,9701
1,9665
1,9632
1,9601
1,9573
1,9546

9,0579
3,5782
2,7626
2,4559
2,2974
2,2011
2,1365
2,0902
2,0554
2,0283
2,0067
1,9889
1,9742
1,9617
1,9509
1,9417
1,9335
1,9264
1,9200
1,9143
1,9092
1,9045
1,9003
1,8965
1,8929
1,8897
1,8867
1,8839
1,8813
1,8789

8,4490
3,4428
2,6808
2,3921
2,2423
2,1510
2,0897
2,0458
2,0127
1,9870
1,9663
1,9494
1,9354
1,9235
1,9132
1,9044
1,8966
1,8898
1,8837
1,8783
1,8734
1,8690
1,8649
1,8613
1,8579
1,8548
1,8519
1,8493
1,8468
1,8445

7,9158
3,3198
2,6054
2,3329
2,1910
2,1043
2,0460
2,0042
1,9727
1,9481
1,9284
1,9123
1,8989
1,8875
1,8777
1,8693
1,8619
1,8553
1,8495
1,8443
1,8397
1,8354
1,8316
1,8281
1,8248
1,8219
1,8191
1,8166
1,8142
1,8120

7,0264
3,1040
2,4708
2,2261
2,0978
2,0192
1,9662
1,9280
1,8992
1,8768
1,8588
1,8440
1,8317
1,8213
1,8123
1,8046
1,7978
1,7918
1,7864
1,7816
1,7773
1,7734
1,7699
1,7667
1,7637
1,7610
1,7585
1,7561
1,7540
1,7520

6,3137
2,9200
2,3534
2,1318
2,0150
1,9432
1,8946
1,8595
1,8331
1,8125
1,7959
1,7823
1,7709
1,7613
1,7531
1,7459
1,7396
1,7341
1,7291
1,7247
1,7207
1,7171
1,7139
1,7109
1,7081
1,7056
1,7033
1,7011
1,6991
1,6973

4,1653
2,2819
1,9243
1,7782
1,6994
1,6502
1,6166
1,5922
1,5737
1,5592
1,5476
1,5380
1,5299
1,5231
1,5172
1,5121
1,5077
1,5037
1,5002
1,4970
1,4942
1,4916
1,4893
1,4871
1,4852
1,4834
1,4817
1,4801
1,4787
1,6973

3,0777
1,8856
1,6377
1,5332
1,4759
1,4398
1,4149
1,3968
1,3830
1,3722
1,3634
1,3562
1,3502
1,3450
1,3406
1,3368
1,3334
1,3304
1,3277
1,3253
1,3232
1,3212
1,3195
1,3178
1,3163
1,3150
1,3137
1,3125
1,3114
1,3104

Bit tm tn 1 : n 6 , 0,07 tn1 2, 2974

n 20 , 0,08 tn1 1,8495

Bit tn 1 tm : n 22 , tn1 1,72 1,7207 0,1

n 29 , tn1 1,8 1,8166 0,08

160

Ti liu tham kho

[1] L S ng, Xc Sut Thng K V ng Dng, NXBGD, 2010.
[2] inh Vn Gng, L Thuyt Xc Sut V Thng K Ton, NXBGD, 2007.
[3] L Khnh Lun, Bi Tp Xc Sut Thng K, NXB Tng hp TP. HCM,
2009.
[4] PGS. TS. Phm Xun Kiu, Gio trnh Xc Sut v Thng K, NXBGD,
2009.
[5] Hong Ngc Nhm, L Thuyt Xc Sut V Thng K Ton Hc, NXB
Kinh t TP. HCM, 2012.
[6] Hong Ngc Nhm, Bi Tp Xc Sut Thng K, NXB Thng k TP.
HCM, 2011.
[7] GVC. Ths. Nguyn Th Minh Th, Bi Ging L Thuyt Xc Sut v
Thng K Ton, Trng Cao ng Cng Ngh Thng Tin TP. HCM,
2012.
[8] Trn Gia Tng, Gio trnh L Thuyt Xc Sut v Thng K Ton Hc
(L thuyt c bn v ng dng), NXB i hc Quc gia TP. HCM, 2009.
[9] George Roussas, An Introduction to Probability and Statistical Inference
0125990200, Elsevier Science, 2003.

161