NH XUT BN TRI THC

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I

I

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I
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I

N

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0
0
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-
2
0
1
1
:

M

S
A
I

L

C
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V

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T GI HI OI GIAI ON 2000-2011:
MC SAI LCH V
TC NG I VI XUT KHU
1
T GI HI OI GIAI ON 2000-2011:
MC SAI LCH V
TC NG I VI XUT KHU
2
T GI HI OI GIAI ON 2000-2011:
MC SAI LCH V TC NG I VI XUT KHU
Bo co nghin cu RS - 01
Bn quyn 2013 thuc v y ban Kinh t ca Quc hi v UNDP ti Vit Nam.
Mi s sao chp v lu hnh khng c s ng ca y ban Kinh t ca Quc hi
v UNDP l vi phm bn quyn.
3
T GI HI OI GIAI ON 2000-2011:
MC SAI LCH V TC NG I VI XUT KHU
4
5
LI GII THIU
Chnh sch t gi lun c coi l mt trong nhng chnh sch
v m rt quan trng nhng tc ng kh lng v thng phi nh
i gia nhiu mc tiu v m khc nhau. Trn thc t, c nhiu mc
tiu c t ra cho chnh sch t gi, trong khi cc cng c thc thi
chnh sch v d a thc hin chnh sch li kh hn hp. Vic gim
gi ng ni t c th thc y xut khu v ci thin cn cn thanh
ton, nhng iu ch c th xy ra trong nhng iu kin nht
nh v tc ng khc nhau i vi tng hng ha khc nhau.
iu cho thy vic nh gi tc ng ca iu chnh t gi
n lm pht l khng h n gin v trong mt nn kinh t m, t
gi thc nh hng n gi c tng i gia cc hng ha sn xut
trong nc v hng ha nhp khu. T gi cng c th tc ng trc
tip n lm pht do vic thay i gi c tnh bng ng ni t ca
hng ha nhp khu v qua nh hng n ch s gi. Vic nh
gi din bin v nguyn nhn bin ng t gi, ng thi phn tch
tc ng gia chnh sch t gi v tng trng xut khu l mt ch
m cc i biu Quc hi v cc nh hoch nh chnh sch hin
rt quan tm.
Trc yu cu , nghin cu ny tp trung phn tch v
nh gi xu hng t gi v bin ng ca t gi danh ngha v t
gi thc trong giai on 10 nm qua, nhng nhn t tc ng n
t gi hu hiu thc v mc sai lch, t xc nh c t gi
cn bng v mc nh gi cao hay thp ca tin ng cng nh
6
nh lng c tc ng ca thay i t gi n xut khu ca cc
mt hng chnh ca Vit Nam. Thng qua phng php nghin cu
r rng v nhng bng chng phn tch xc thc, nghin cu a ra
nhng pht hin hu ch v c tnh thuyt phc cao.
y l nghin cu trong chui nhng nghin cu da trn bng
chng thc nghim gn vi nhng vn chnh sch kinh t v m
ang c trin khai trong khun kh D n H tr nng cao nng
lc tham mu, thm tra v gim st chnh sch kinh t v m ca y
ban Kinh t ca Quc hi do UNDP ti tr. Bo co nghin cu do
nhm tc gi ca trng i hc Kinh t, i hc Quc gia H Ni
thc hin. Mi nhn nh, phn tch, nh gi trong bo co ny th
hin quan im c lp ca nhm tc gi v khng phn nh quan
im ca y ban Kinh t cng nh ca Ban Qun l D n.
Xin trn trng gii thiu cng bn c.
TS. Nguyn Vn Giu
y vin y ban Thng v Quc hi
Ch nhim y ban Kinh t ca Quc hi
7
Trng Ban ch o D n:
Nguyn Vn Giu
Ch nhim y ban Kinh t ca Quc hi
Gim c D n:
Nguyn Vn Phc
Ph Ch nhim y ban Kinh t ca Quc hi
Ph Gim c D n:
Nguyn Minh Sn
V trng V Kinh t, Vn phng Quc hi
Qun c D n:
Nguyn Tr Dng
Nhm tc gi:
V Quc Huy
Nguyn Th Thu Hng
V Phm Hi ng
Nghin cu c thc hin trong khun kh D n H tr nng cao
nng lc tham mu, thm tra v gim st chnh sch kinh t v m do
y ban Kinh t ca Quc hi ch tr, vi s ti tr ca Chng trnh Pht
trin Lin hp quc ti Vit Nam (UNDP).
Cc tc gi xin by t li cm n i vi cc ng Nguyn Vn Giu,
Nguyn Vn Phc, V Vit Ngon, Nguyn Minh Sn, Nguyn Tr Dng,
T Trung Thnh, Rodney Schmidt, V Thnh T Anh, V Tr Thnh, L Hi
Ha, b L Th Ngc Lin v nhng kin ng gp v s ng h ca h.
8
9
MC LC
DANH MC CC CH VIT TT 11
DANH MC BNG 12
DANH MC HNH 12
LI NI U 13
CHNG 1. QuN l t Gi Vit Nam: NHNG biN
NG GN y 17
CC XU HNG T GI 18
NHNG BIN NG GN Y 20
Giai oan 2008-2009 20
Giai oan 2010-2011 23
DIN BIN CA T GI THC 28
CHNG 2. CC NHN t Quyt NH t Gi tHC
(Hu Hiu) V mC sai lCH 31
T GI THC HU HIU: KHI NIM, CCH TNH V NG DNG 31
TNH TON T GI THC HU HIU VIT NAM: S LIU MI V NHNG PHT
HIN MI 34
Pham vi rng hn 34
Tn sut s liu ln hn 35
CC KT QU CHNH V LA CHN TI U V TN SUT S LIU V PHM VI
CC NC C S DNG 36
CC NHN T QUYT NH T GI THC HU HIU V MC SAI LCH 38
o lng t gi cn bng 38
M hnh cho Vit Nam 42
10
LA CHN M HNH V KT QU THC NGHIM CHO VIT NAM 45
La chn m hnh 45
Kt lun 50
CHNG 3. tC NG Ca t Gi N xut kHu:
m HNH VECm 51
NH DNG M HNH 52
S LIU 55
CC KT QU CHNH 56
KT LUN 59
CHNG 4. tHo luN CHNH sCH 61
PH LC 59
TI LIU THAM KHO 95
11
DANH MC CC CH VIT TT
ADB Ngn hng Pht trin Chu (Asian Development Bank)
ADF Kim nh Dickey-Fuller tch hp (Augmented Dickey-Fuller test)
ARDL M hnh phn b tr t hi quy (Autoregressive Distributed Lag model)
ARPDL M hnh phn b tr t hi quy a thc (Autoregressive Polynomial Distributed
Lag model)
BEER T gi cn bng theo hnh vi (Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate)
CGER Nhm t vn v cc vn t gi (Consultative Group on Exchange Rate Issues)
CPI Ch s gi tiu dng (Customer Price Index)
EMEs Cc nn kinh t mi ni (Emerging Market Economies)
FDI u t trc tip nc ngoi (Foreign Direct Investment)
FII u t gin tip nc ngoi (Foreign Indirect Investment)
GDP Tng sn phm quc ni (Gross Domestic Product)
GTA Atlas Thng mi ton cu (Global Trade Atlas)
GTIS H thng thng tin thng mi ton cu (Global Trade Information System)
HS H thng phn loi hng ha hi ha (Harmonized System)
IFS H thng ti chnh quc t (International Finance System)
IMF Qu Tin t quc t (International Monetary Fund)
LICs Cc nc thu nhp thp (Low Income Countries)
NATREX T gi t nhin (Natural Rate of Exchange)
NEER T gi hu hiu danh ngha (Norminal Efective Exchange Rate)
NHNN Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam (State Bank of Vietnam SBV)
NHTM Ngn hng Thng mi
ODA Vin tr pht trin chnh thc (Ofcial Development Assistance)
PEER T gi cn bng thng xuyn (Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate)
SITC H thng phn loi quc t v thng mi (Standard International Trade Clas-
sifcation)
VND ng Vit Nam
USD la M
12
DANH MC BNG
Bng 1. Ch s t gi thc ca cc ng tin so vi la M (nm 2000 l nm gc) 29
Bng 2. c lng REER di hn cho mi quc gia 44
Bng 3. Kim nh mc ng tch hp 46
Bng 4. Tm tt cc kt qu hi quy vi 4 la chn v t hi quy 47
Bng 5. Tc ng ca t gi n xut khu theo hm phn hi xung: Th trng M, s liu
GTIS 57
Bng 6. Tc ng ca t gi n xut khu theo hm phn hi xung: Cc th trng xut
khu chnh, s liu GTIS 58
Bng A. 1. C ch t gi ca Vit Nam theo thi gian, 1989-2011 64
Bng A.2. Xut khu ca Vit Nam sang cc th trng chnh, 2005-2010 66
Bng A.3. Danh mc cc nc s dng trong vic tnh NEER and REER 68
Bng A.4. Cc h s ng tch hp trong m hnh vi th trng M v danh mc hong ha
SITC (US market and SITC commodities) 69
Bng A.5. Phn ng ngn hn ca xut khu i vi t gi: hm phn hi xung 78
DANH MC HNH
Hnh 1. T gi danh ngha VND/USD v lm pht Vit Nam, 1992-2010 19
Hnh 2. T gi VND/USD theo ngy v bin , 2008-2011 21
Hnh 3. T gi chnh thc v t gi th trng t do theo ngy, VND/USD, 2009-2011 23
Hnh 4. T gi thc v t gi danh ngha VND/USD theo qu, 2000-2011 28
Hnh 5. Ch s t gi thc theo qu ca mt s ng tin so vi USD: Q1/2000-Q3/2010 28
Hnh 6. Bin ng t gi thc: h s bin ng theo qu ca mt s ng tin (QI/2011-
QIII/2010) 30
Hnh 7. Cc c lng ca NTTHng, N&N v IMF v REER 33
Hnh 8. Ch s tng trng xut khu v t gi danh ngha, RER v REER 36
Hnh 9. REER vi cc s lng nc khc nhau 37
Hnh 10. T gi cn bng 49
Hnh 11. Sai lch ca t gi: Tng sai lch v sai lch hin ti 50
13
LI NI U
Kinh nghim quc t ch ra rng khng c mt khun mu
sn c cho mt nn kinh t thc hin chnh sch t gi ca mnh.
Loi tr mt vi trng hp c bit, phn ln cc nn kinh t u
xy dng mt chnh sch t gi trong mt khng gian chnh sch kh
rng ri gia hai thi cc: ch t gi c nh vi bin dao ng rt
hp v ch th ni t gi. Hn th na, gia nhng quy nh c
tnh php l v ch t gi c cng khai vi vic thc thi chnh
sch t gi trn thc t c nhng khc bit kh ln. Vic nh gi,
xem xt ch t gi ca mt nn kinh t do vy phn nhiu l mt
vn mang tnh thc nghim, cn c xem xt thng qua cc bng
chng thc t.
Trn thc t cng c nhng khc bit rt ln gia mt bn l
nhng k vng v nhng tc ng m nhng chnh sch t gi c th
mang li vi bn kia l nhng tc ng thc s n nn kinh t ca
nhng bin php chnh sch . Thm vo , c s nh i nht
nh gia cc mc tiu chnh sch. Thng thng c qu nhiu mc
tiu c t ra cho chnh sch t gi, trong khi cc cng c thc
thi chnh sch v d a thc hin chnh sch li kh hn hp. Vic
gim gi ng ni t c th thc y xut khu v ci thin cn cn
thanh ton, nhng iu ch c th xy ra trong nhng iu kin
nht nh (trong kinh t hc mt trong nhng iu kin l iu
kin Marshall-Lerner khi tng co gin ca xut khu v nhp
khu vi gi c phi ln hn 1). Thm vo , ngay c khi xut khu
c ci thin do tc ng ca t gi th mc tc ng cng rt
14
khc nhau gia cc sn phm v theo thi gian. Cc nghin cu cng
ch ra rng gia mc tiu n nh t gi thc da trn tiu dng v
mc tiu iu chnh iu kin thng mi i khi mu thun do tc
ng ca t gi n cc mc gi c ca hng tiu dng v hng dnh
cho sn xut l khc nhau. iu cng ch ra rng tc ng ca t
gi n lm pht l khng h n gin. Trong mt nn kinh t m, t
gi thc nh hng n gi c tng i gia cc hng ha sn xut
trong nc v mt hng nhp khu. Vic thay i gi c tng i
ny dn n s thay i v nhu cu i vi tng loi hng ha ,
t dn n thay i tng cu v tc ng n lm pht. T gi c
th tc ng trc tip n lm pht do vic thay i gi c tnh bng
ng bn a ca cc mt hng nhp khu v qua nh hng n
ch s gi c.
Tt c nhng iu ni trn hm rng bt k mt chng trnh
kim sot lm pht no trong ngn hn cng phi kim sot ng
thi ca t gi. Vic tng trng xut khu do tc ng ban u ca
vic gim gi ng ni t rt c th b mt dn i do nhng tc ng
bt li ca lm pht ko theo trong cc giai on sau. Tc ng cui
cng ny, nh ni trn ty thuc nhiu vo cc sn phm v thi
gian do cc mc tc ng v knh chuyn ti tc ng ca t gi.
S dng ch s t gi hu hiu thc (real effective exchange rate,
REER) nh l mt ch s nng lc cnh tranh c th l lch lc bi
l nng lc cnh tranh l mt khi nim rng ln hn nhiu, khng
n thun ch l t gi.
Tnh cht phc tp, a dng, mang tnh nh i mc tiu cao
ca vic thc thi cc bin php ca chnh sch t gi l gii phn
no ti sao ch ny li l mt quan tm ln v c bn tho nhiu
Vit Nam, nht l t nm 2007 tr li y sau nhng bt n kinh t
v m ca nc ta. Qun l t gi ang l mt thch thc chnh sch
ln khi ang lin tc c nhng du hiu v nhng mo m trn th
15
trng ngoi hi. K t sau thng 9/2010 n thi im nghin cu
ny c thc hin (thng 5/2011) tnh hnh trn li tr nn phc tp
hn do lm pht ti din. Vn t gi c coi l mt trong nhng
vn cc k quan trng nh hng n s n nh v m ca nn
kinh t cng vi cc vn khc nh thm ht ngn sch, thm ht
thng mi v lm pht. iu hnh t gi hp l nhm kim sot lm
pht, n nh nn kinh t, thc y xut khu v ci thin cn cn
thng mi lun c coi trn danh ngha l nhng mc tiu chnh
sch quan trng Vit Nam.
iu ny tr nn quan trng hn bao gi ht trong bi cnh
Vit Nam ang phi i mt vi nhng thch thc n nh kinh t
v m nh hin nay. Cc bin php mnh tay p dng gn y nh
cm bun bn ngoi t trn th trng phi chnh thc, yu cu kt hi
khng chnh thc, vic ph gi mnh ng Vit Nam u nm 2011
sau mt thi gian di km gi t ra nhng cu hi v tnh hiu
qu v ph hp ca cc bin php ny trong khun kh chung ca
mt chnh sch t gi. Nghin cu ny s cp n mt s ni dung
trong cch thc iu hnh t gi ca Vit Nam trong thi gian gn
y (t sau nm 2000) trn c s nhng phn tch thc chng.
Chng ti tnh ch s t gi hu hiu thc (REER) theo thng
trn c s s dng cc s liu kh cp nht, chi tit hn v c tn
sut thi gian v khng gian so vi cc nghin cu trc y. Nghin
cu cng xut cch thc tnh ch s ny theo cch mi vi tn
sut thi gian v phm vi ban hnh hp l, phc v cho cc nhu cu
phn tch chnh sch, thng k v theo di trong tng lai. Bn cnh
, ln u tin nc ta, mc sai lch v t gi (exchange rate
misalignment) cng c nhm nghin cu a ra da trn mt m
hnh kinh t lng tng i n gin v c th nghim tnh
ton mc sai lch t gi cho nhiu quc gia trn th gii. Cc kt
qu v mc sai lch t gi c th s gp phn nh gi hiu qu
16
ca chnh sch t gi, theo ngha cc bin php can thip t gi c
lm trm trng thm hay gim nh mc sai lch ny. Cc s liu v
mc sai lch t gi cng ch ra c din bin ca t gi v mi
tng thch vi nhng ch s nn tng (fundamentals) ca nn kinh
t. iu c th s gip cho cc nh hoch nh chnh sch c thm
thng tin trong khi cn nhc, xem xt cc bin php khc nhau khi
iu hnh t gi cho ph hp vi tnh hnh thc t v cc mc tiu
ra. Phn cui ca nghin cu l kt qu ca m hnh kinh t lng
c lng tc ng ca t gi i vi xut khu. Khc vi nhiu
nghin cu trc y, nghin cu ny a ra kt qu v nh hng
ca t gi i vi cc sn phm xut khu theo danh mc quc t
(195 mt hng theo m SITC 3 ch s v trn 90 mt hng theo m
HS 2 ch s) trn 4 th trng xut khu chnh ca Vit Nam l Hoa
K, khu vc ng Euro (15 nc), Nht Bn v Hn Quc. Cc kt
qu c lng cho thy t gi c nh hng ln n xut khu ca
Vit Nam. Tuy nhin, tc ng tch cc ny ph thuc vo c hai
yu t: sn phm xut khu v th trng xut khu. Kt lun ny c
th khng hon ton mi nhng n ti khng nh kh nng s dng
cng c t gi trong vic thc y xut khu. Tuy nhin, vic nn hay
khng nn s dng cng c ny cn phi tnh ton n cc yu t
v mc tiu khc trong nn kinh t. Vn ny cn c gii quyt
trong mt khun kh phn tch chnh sch khc.
Bo co ny c nhng ni dung chnh nh sau: Chng 1 tm
tt nhng bin ng gn y trn th trng ngoi hi v cc thay i
chnh sch tng ng, ch trng vo giai on t sau 2007; Chng
2 c lng t gi hu hiu thc (REER); Chng 3 xc nh mc
sai lch ca t gi; Chng 4 l m hnh kinh t lng v tc ng
ca t gi ln xut khu; Chng 5 tho lun cc vn chnh sch
trong vic qun l t gi Vit Nam v m ra nhng hng nghin
cu mi.
17
CHNG 1
QuN l t Gi Vit Nam: NHNG
biN NG GN y
Qun l t gi nhm kim sot lm pht, n nh kinh t v m
v cn cn thng mi lun l mt nhim v quan trng i vi Vit
Nam. iu ny cng quan trng hn khi hin ti Vit Nam vn ang
c gng thot khi cuc khng hong kinh t th gii 2007-2009 v
n lc n nh kinh t v m.
Vit Nam c nhiu iu chnh trong c ch t gi k t khi
t nc chm dt c ch tp trung quan liu bao cp nm 1989. Tuy
nhin, xt v bn cht cc thay i ny u xoay quanh ch neo t
gi. Vit Nam, ng USD gn nh c mc nh l ng tin neo
t gi. Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam (NHNN) cng b t gi VND/
USD. Cn c vo t gi quc t gia USD v cc ng tin ngoi t
khc, cc Ngn hng Thng mi (NHTM) s xc lp t gi gia cc
ngoi t vi VND. (Xem phn ph lc bit thng tin chi tit v
nhng iu chnh t gi ca Vit Nam t nm 1989).
Trong vong 10 nm qua xut hin nhiu n lc nghin cu
v c ch t gi ca Vit Nam
1
. Cc nghin cu ny u ch ra rng
1
ng k nht trong s l cc nghin cu ca V Tr Thnh v cc ng tc gi, (2000). Exchange
Rate Arrangement in Vietnam: Information Content and Policy Options, East Asian Development Network
(EADN); Nguyn Trn Phc (2009) Implications of Exchange Rate Policy for Foreign Exchange Market
Development: Vietnam, 1986-2008, Working Paper, Griffen University, Australia; Nguyn Trn Phc v
Nguyn c Th (2009) Exchange Rate Policy in Vietnam, 1985-2008, ASEAN Economic Bulletin 26(2):
137-163.
18
c ch t gi ca Vit Nam mt mt cn c duy tr n nh, nhng
mt khc nn linh ng hn na theo tn hiu th trng. V Tr
Thnh v cc ng tc gi (2000) xut Vit Nam nn theo c ch
neo t gi theo r tin t vi bin iu chnh dn (Band-Basket-
Crawling) con Ohno (2003) xut Vit Nam nn theo c ch neo
t gi c iu chnh (crawling peg). Trn thc t, trong nhng nm
va qua Vit Nam theo ui c ch neo t gi c iu chnh nh
xut ca hai nghin cu trn. Nhng hai nghin cu gn y ca
Nguyn c Th (2009) v Nguyn Trn Phc (2009) li ch ra rng
c ch neo t gi c iu chnh ny khng hot ng hiu qu, gy
ra cc bt n cho th trng ti chnh. Khng nhng th, n con ngn
cn s pht trin ca th trng ngoi hi ca Vit Nam. Mt nghin
cu gn y ca Nguyn Th Thu Hng v cc ng tc gi (2010)
cng chia se quan im ca Nguyn Trn Phc (2009) v gi Vit
Nam nn nhanh chng chuyn sang c ch th ni c kim sot.
hiu r hn v tc ng ca chnh sch qun l t gi v
nhng iu chnh trong t gi, chng ta s xem xt nhng bin ng
ca t gi Vit Nam v tp trung ch yu vo nhng bin ng gn
y.
CC XU HNG T GI
Nhn vo din bin ca t gi danh ngha t nm 1992 n
nay (Hnh 1) c th thy t gi chnh thc VND/USD
2
c xu hng
i theo mt chu k r rt gm hai giai on: (i) trong giai on suy
thoi kinh t hoc khng hong, VND mt gi kh mnh; v (ii) khi
giai on suy thoi kt thc, nn kinh t i vo n nh th t gi li
c neo gi tng i cng nhc theo ng USD. Chu k ny
c lp li hn hai ln t nm 1989 n nay.
2
T gi chnh thc l t gi bnh qun lin ngn hng do NHNN cng b hng ngy da trn t gi giao
dch ca ngy hm trc gia cc NHTM.
19
Giai on 1 ca chu k tng ng vi cc giai on nn kinh
t c s bin ng mnh: (i) 1997-2000 vi nh hng mnh m
ca cuc khng hong ti chnh chu A; v (ii) 2008-2011 vi cuc
khng hong kinh t ton cu v n lc bnh n kinh t v m. Gn
lin vi nhng giai on bin ng mnh ny l s chnh lch ln
gia t gi chnh thc v t gi th trng t do. Sc p ca th
trng buc NHNN phi ni rng bin t gi hoc chnh thc
ph gi, lm cho VND mt gi mnh m so vi thi im trc .
Hnh 1. T gi danh ngha VND/USD (bn tri) v lam pht Vit Nam
(bn phi), 1992-2010

Ngun: TCTK, NHNN (2011) v tnh ton ca tc gi.
Giai on 2 ca chu k tng ng vi cc thi k nn kinh
t i vo pht trin n nh nh giai on 1993-1996 v giai on
2001-2007. Gn lin vi cc giai on ny l mt c ch t gi neo
gi theo ng USD mt cch tng i cng nhc. y cng l cc
giai on m t gi trn th trng t do cng n nh v theo st vi
t gi chnh thc. Nguyn nhn l do giai on trc t gi chnh
thc c tng lin tc v n cui giai on ngang bng vi
t gi th trng t do.
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
35
30
25
20
10
5
0
15
-5
1
9
9
2
1
9
9
3
1
9
9
4
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
6
1
9
9
7
1
9
9
8
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
20
NHNG BIN NG GN Y
Giai oan 2008-2009
Giai oan 2008-2009 nh du s bin ng trong cc phn
ng chnh sch t gi Vit Nam. T nm 2007, do s gia tng t
ca lung tin FII vo Vit Nam, ngun cung USD tng mnh.
Trn thc t vo na u nm 2007 v t thng 10/2007 n thng
3/2008, th trng ngoi hi Vit Nam c d cung v USD khin
cho t gi NHTM
3
gim xung sn bin . VND ln gi trong
giai on ny.
Hnh 2 cho thy t gi c nhng bin ng mnh trong nm
2008 do lm pht tng cao trong na u nm v cuc khng hong
kinh t th gii bt u tc ng ti nn kinh t Vit Nam vo na
cui nm 2008. T gia nm 2008, cng vi s suy thoi kinh t,
lung FII vo Vit Nam bt u o chiu.
Xu hng chung ca nm 2009 l s mt gi danh ngha ca
VND so vi USD. Cho n cui nm 2009, t gi chnh thc VND/
USD tng 5,6% so vi cui nm 2008. Trong khi trong nm 2008,
t gi nim yt ti cc NHTM bin ng lin tc, u nm con c
giai on thp hn t gi chnh thc, th nm 2009 li l mt nm
m t gi NHTM lun mc trn ca bin giao ng m NHNN
cng b.
Trong c nm, p lc v cung cu trn th trng cng vi p
lc tm l khin t gi trn th trng t do ngy cng ri xa t
gi chnh thc. Mc d NHNN buc phi m rng bin giao
ng ca t gi chnh thc trong thng 3 t +/-3% ln +/-5% bin
ln nht trong vong 10 nm qua, nhng cc NHTM vn giao dch
mc t gi trn. Tnh trng nhp siu ko di v ngy cng tng
t thng 3 n cui nm. Gi tr nhp khu trong 3 thng cui nm
3
T gi NHTM l t gi giao dch ca cc NHTM v phi nm trong bin giao ng do NHNN cng b.
21
tng mnh so vi 3 thng u nm, chim 30% tng gi tr nhp
khu c nm 2009. Gi tr xut khu trong c nm gim 10% so vi
nm 2009 ch yu do mt bng gi xut khu gim c bit l cc
mt hng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam. Mc d xut khu tng
vo cui nm nhng trong thng 11, nhp siu ln ti hn 2 t USD,
mc ln nht trong c nm.
Thm vo , chnh lch ln gia gi vng trong nc v gi
vng quc t khin cho nhu cu v USD cng tng phc v
vic nhp khu vng. Gi vng v USD u tng mnh. Ngi
dn y mnh mua ngoi t trn th trng t do, gi USD trn th
trng ch en tng mnh. Do khan him ngun cung USD, cc
doanh nghip cng phi nh n th trng ch en hoc phi cng
thm ph ph khi mua ngoi t ti cc NHTM. Tm l hoang mang
mt long tin vo VND lm tng cu v gim cung v USD y t
gi th trng t do tng ln hng ngy. Ngi dn lo ngi thc s v
kh nng ph gi tin VND, sau khi mt s bo co ca cc nh ch
ti chnh c cng b.
Hnh 2. T gi VND/USD theo ngy v bin , 2008-2011
Ngun: NHNN, Vietcombank (2011) v tnh ton ca tc gi.
22
V n ngy 26/11/2009, NHNN buc phi chnh thc ph
gi VND 5,4%, t l ph gi cao nht trong mt ngy k t nm 1998
chng u c tin t
4
v gim p lc th trng, ng thi thu hp
bin giao ng xung con +/-3%. Cng vi chnh sch t gi, vo
thi im ny NHNN nng li sut c bn t 7% ln 8%/nm. Cc
chnh sch ny c cho l hp l nhng kh mun mng. ng Vit
Nam tip tc mt gi trn th trng t do th hin qua vic t gi
trn th trng t do vo thi im cui nm 2009 vn ng vng
mc cao khong 19.400 VND cho 1 USD v cc NHTM tip tc
giao dch mc trn.
Tnh hnh th trng ngoi hi trong nm 2009 c th trm
trng hn nu khng c: (i) s st gim nhu cu ngoi t do thu nhp
t u t do cc doanh nghip c yu t nc ngoi chuyn ra khi
Vit Nam gim (trong nm 2009 c t -3 t USD, so vi -4,4 t
USD nm 2008); v (ii) s gia tng cung ngoi t do lng kiu hi
vn ng vng con s kh tch cc hn 6 t USD. FDI gii ngn
c t 10 t USD. FII chy ra khi Vit Nam vo u nm nhng
cng c du hiu o chiu vo cui nm.
4
Cui thng 12/2008, NHNN ph gi VND 3%.
23
Hnh 3. T gi chnh thc v t gi th trng t do theo ngy
VND/USD, 2009-2011
Ngun: NHNN, Vietcombank v cc ca hng vng t nhn (2011).
R rng, NHNN th hin s lng l v khng nht qun
trong chnh sch t gi. Vic s dng bin t gi thay cho vic ph
gi chnh thc vo thng 3/2009 cng khng c tc dng nh mong
mun. Trong c nm, bt chp cc bin php hnh chnh (nh yu cu
cc Tng cng ty nh nc bn ngoi t cho Chnh ph) cng nh
cc cng b ca lnh o NHNN, NHNN khng th ko t gi th
trng t do v st vi t gi NHTM nh mong mun. Thm vo ,
do phi gi n nh t gi trong thi gian di, NHNN phi bn ra
hn mt lng ln USD lm gim d tr ngoi hi. Vo cui nm
2009, k vng mt gi ca ng tin Vit Nam hin vn con kh ln.
Giai oan 2010-2011
Nm 2010 tip tc chng kin cc xu hng tng t trn th
trng ngoi hi nh trong nm 2009. C th l cc NTTM vn tip
tc t t gi ti trn bin ca t gi chnh thc trong hu ht cc
thng trong nm v khong cch gia t gi chnh thc v t gi th
trng t do c lc tng ln nhng mc cao cha tng c vo cui
nm 2010.
24
Do cc p lc vn tip tc tng cao d NHNN c nhiu n
lc vo cui nm 2009, n ngy 11/2/2010, NHNN phi tng t
gi chnh thc t 17.941 VND/USD ln 18.544 VND/USD, tng
ng vi vic ph gi 3,3%. Cng vi vic nng t gi ny, NHNN
thc hin hng lot cc bin php hnh chnh nhm gim p lc
ln th trng ngoi hi nh gim t l d tr bt buc i vi tin
gi ngoi t, m rng i tng cho vay ngoi t, chm dt vic giao
dch vng trn cc ti khon nc ngoi ca cc NHTM v cc t
chc tn dng, ng ca cc sn vng v tng li sut c bn ln 8%/
nm. Kt qu l, trong su thng u nm 2010 tn dng ngoi t
tng 27% trong khi tn dng VND ch tng 4,6%. ng thi, kiu hi
v cc khon gii ngn FDI, ODA v FII u tng ln trong hai qu
u ca nm 2010 so vi cng k nm 2009 khi con khng hong.
Tt c cc yu t trn gp phn tng cung v gim cu ngoi t,
nh gim khong cch gia t gi th trng t do v t gi chnh
thc trong qu II v na u qu III/2010 (xem Hnh 3).
Tuy nhin, cc NHTM tip tc t gi mc trn hoc gn vi
trn bin ca t gi chnh thc. V t u thng 7/2010, t gi th
trng t do li bt u tng ln d lc u ch tng chm. Nhng xu
hng ny phn nh k vng ca th trng ngoi hi v s ph gi
ca VND. Nguyn nhn ca k vng ny l: (i) cung ngoi t tng l
ch yu do cc doanh nghip tn dng chnh lch li sut gia tin
gi ngoi t v tin gi VND; (ii) nhiu bin php hnh chnh ca
NHNN ch mang tnh tm thi v c th s b o ngc; (iii) lo lng
v vic cu ngoi t s tng cao khi nhiu khon vay ngoi t ca cc
doanh nghip nhm tn dng chnh lch li sut s n hn; v (iv)
hnh vi u c ca ngi dn do gim st nim tin vo tin ng.
C l do nhn thc c nhng mi e da ny, vo ngy
17/8/2010, NHNN t ngt tng t gi thm 2,1% ln 18.932
VND/USD mc d lc p lc th trng vn cha r rng v
25
khong cch gia t gi th trng t do v t gi chnh thc vn
ang mc thp khong 500 VND/USD. Ngay lp tc, cc NHTM
tng t gi ca h ln kch trn. ng thi ca NHNN c th gip
gim p lc v n nh t gi nu khng c nhiu nhng yu t bt
li din ra trong nhng thng cui ca nm 2010. Yu t u tin v
c l l yu t quan trng nht l vic gi vng quc t tng cao k
lc dn n gi vng trong nc con tng cao hn do u c. ng
thi, sau mt vi thng tng vi tc chm, lm pht li bt u
tng nhanh t thng 9/2010 khin cho CPI ca nm 2011 tng ln
11,75% so vi 7% nm 2009.
Trong nhng thng cui nm 2011, th trng ngoi hi chng
kin s tng ln nhanh chng ca cu v ngoi t do: (i) nhu cu mua
ngoi t tr cc khon vay o hn ca cc doanh nghip tn dng
chnh lch li sut trong hai qu u nm 2011; (ii) nhu cu nhp
khu thng tng cao vo cui nm cng thm nhu cu nhp khu
vng nhm kim li t s chnh lch gia gi vng trong nc v
gi vng quc t; (iii) NHNN tht cht tn dng ngoi t; (iv) li sut
tin gi ngoi t tng cao, ln trn 5%/nm; v (v) hot ng u c
gia tng. Thm vo , cung ngoi t gim st do cc doanh nghip
khng mun bn ngoi t cho ngn hng khi h lo lng v kh nng
NHNN s tip tc phi ph gi VND.
Kt qu ca s d cu ngoi t l t gi th trng t do bt
u tng t thng 9/2010 ln 20.500 VND/USD vo gia thng 10
v ln n mc k lc l trn 21.500 VND/USD vo cui thng 11
(xem Hnh 3). i mt vi tnh trng ny, NHNN phi thc hin
mt lot cc bin php hnh chnh nh tuyn b tng cung ngoi
t cho vic nhp khu nhng mt hng thit yu cho sn xut, tht
cht vic trao i cng nh nhn gi v cho vay bng vng v tng
hn ngch nhp khu vng lm du tnh hnh cng thng trn th
trng vng. ng thi, li sut c bn cng c tng ln 9%/nm
vo thng 11.
26
Tuy nhin, t gi th trng t do ch gim nh i cht v vo
cui nm 2010 v u nm 2011 vn ng mc cao. Nguyn nhn
th nht cho tnh trng ny l do hu ht cc bin php ca NHNN,
nht l i vi th trng vng ch mang tnh tm thi. Th hai, d
tr ngoi hi lin tc gim st t nm 2009 v do tuyn b ca
NHNN v vic cung ngoi t ra th trng khng c hon ton
m bo. Th ba, lm pht tng cao v vn tip tc tng. Th t,
thm ht thng mi nm 2010 vn cao mc 12,4 t USD ( loi
tr 2,8 t nhp khu rong vng). Tnh trng ny con trm trng hn
do cc hot ng u c.
Khng th tip tc duy tr t gi, NHNN tuyn b mc ph
gi cao nht trong lch s (9,3%) vo u thng 2/2011, nng t gi
chnh thc ln 20.693 VND/USD v gim bin xung con +/-1%
5
.
N lc ny khng c kt qu ngay lp tc. T gi th trng t do
vt ln trn 22.100 VND/USD trong vong vi ngy k t sau ln ph
gi ny. Vo thng 3/2011, NHNN sit cht cc hot ng trn th
trng t do, p t trn li sut thp cho tin gi bng ngoi t v do
m rng chnh lch gia li sut tin gi ngoi t v li sut VND
lc ln kch trn 14%. Do vy, cung ngoi t tng ln khi
cc doanh nghip v c nhn chuyn i tin gi bng ngoi t sang
tin gi bng VND tn dng chnh lch li sut cao. Bn cnh ,
do thc thi Ngh quyt 11, tng cu ca nn kinh t suy gim, nhu
cu nhp khu gim v cung cu ngoi t ci thin hn. ng thi,
NHNN cng tuyn b l mua thm c 3 t cho d tr ngoi hi.
Nh , c t gi th trng t do v t gi NHTM u gim xung
t thng 4/2011 v c lc con thp hn t gi chnh thc.
Giai on 2010-2011 cho thy NHNN ch ng hn so vi
nhng nm trc. C th, NHNN i trc th trng vo thng
8/2010 khi cc p lc th trng con tng i thp. ng thi,
5
Nh vy mc ph gi thc t l khong 7.3% mc d mc ph gi danh ngha l 9.3% do vic
gim bin .
27
NHNN tin hnh ph gi mt ln vi mc ln hn (thng
2/2011). Nhng ng thi ny cho thy NHNN bt cng nhc v
vn ng theo th trng tt hn. Tuy nhin, NHNN vn s dng
rt nhiu bin php hnh chnh thay v to mi trng cho th trng
t vn hnh.
Mc d hin nay th trng ngoi hi n nh hn, cc bi
hc t tnh hung tng t vo gia nm 2010 cnh bo chng ta
khng nn ch quan vi th trng. Gia hai k th trng tng i
n hoa (hin ti v gia nm 2010) c nhng im tng t khng th
ph nhn. Th nht, cc doanh nghip v cc c nhn chuyn i tin
gi bng ngoi t sang tin gi VND tn dng chnh lch li sut
c hai giai on. Th hai, trong c hai giai on, NHTM u h t
gi xung thp hn trn bin . Th ba, tn dng ngoi t tng nhanh
hn nhiu so vi tn dng VND trong c hai trng hp, ng ngha
vi vic n cui nm nhu cu ngoi t tr cc khon n o hn
s tng nhanh. Th t, p lc t nhp siu vn ln. Cui cng, t gi
th trng t do v t gi NHTM vn bm st nhau (mc d b kim
sot cht ch, mt s hot ng t do vn din ra). Do , nu xy ra
cc yu t bt li vo qu IV/2011 nh s bin ng ln v t ngt
trn th trng vng (c trong v ngoi nc), lm pht cao (c trong
v ngoi nc) th cc p lc trn th trng ngoi hi s tng ln v
c th dn n nhng bin ng tng t nh vo cui nm 2010.
Tuy nhin, hin ti th trng cng c nhng im khc bit, c
thun li v bt li so vi gia nm 2010. Th nht, tnh hnh nm
2010 c li hn v giai on th trng ngoi hi n nh l giai on
lm pht thp lin mt s thng khin nim tin vo tin ng cao hn
hin ti khi lm pht tng lin tc trong 8 thng qua. Tuy nhin
hin ti, NHNN tng v vn tip tc n lc tng d tr ngoi hi.
iu c ngha l NHNN s c lng d tr ngoi hi ln hn
n nh th trng khi cn thit. Th ba, n lc ph gi vo thng
28
2/2011 (9,3%) cao gn gp i so vi tng hai ln ph gi nm 2010
v iu ny c ngha l p lc ph gi thm s thp hn trong nm
nay. Tuy nhin, chng ta cn tnh n vic lm pht nm nay cao hn
kh nhiu so vi nm 2010.
Din bin ca t gi thc
Hnh 4. T gi thc v t gi danh ngha VND/USD theo qu 2000-2011
(qu I/2000 l k gc)
Ngun: Tnh ton ca tc gi theo s liu ca NHNN v IFS (2011).
Hnh 4 cho thy xu hng bin ng ca c t gi thc v t
gi danh ngha theo qu trong thp k qua. T gi danh ngha c xu
hng tng trong ton b thp k v tng mnh hn t 2008 n
nay. Xu hng theo thi gian c c lng
6
cho thy mc mt
gi l khong 0,4%/qu trong giai on 2000-2007 nhng tng
ln mc 1,8%/qu trong giai on tip theo t u nm 2008, tng
ng vi mc tng gp 5 ln so vi giai on trc. Tuy nhin, t
gi thc li c bin ng khc bit, tng nh vo giai on QI/2000-
QIII/2003 vi xu hng thi gian bng 0,75%. VND sau c xu
hng tng gi mnh thc t trong giai on QIV/2003-QIV/2008
6
Xu hng thi gian l h s ca bin thi gian trong phng trnh hi quy gin n sau y = c + a * thi
gian + (b*X).
29
vi tc 1,5%/qu (xem Hnh 4). ng thi, khong cch gia hai
t gi ngy cng m rng c bit l trong giai on 2008-2010. So
vi nm 2000, ch s CPI (i din cho mc lm pht trong nn
kinh t) ca Vit Nam trong nm 2010 tng ti xp x 120% trong
khi CPI ca M ch tng 26,7% trong cng giai on. T gi danh
ngha gia VND v USD ch tng xp x 30,4%. Do vy, nu chng
ta ly nm 2000 lm gc th ng Vit Nam ln gi thc t xp x
25,9%. So vi nm 2000, ch s CPI (i din cho mc lm pht
trong nn kinh t) ca Vit Nam trong nm 2010 tng ti xp x
109% trong khi CPI ca M ch tng 26,7% trong cng giai on.
T gi danh ngha gia ng Vit Nam v la M ch tng xp x
30,4%. Do vy, nu chng ta ly nm 2000 lm gc th ng Vit
Nam ln gi thc t xp x 20%. Thm ch nu chng ta tnh c ln
ph gi 9,3% vo thng 2/2011, tnh hnh cng khng c ci thin
do t l lm pht trong su thng u nm 2011 ln n 13,29%
so vi thng 12/2010.
Bng 1. Ch s t gi thc ca cc ng tin so vi la M
(nm 2000 l nm gc) (%)
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Nhn dn t 101,7 105,0 104,1 104,1 103,9 100,6 91,9 84,3 84,9 80,3
Euro 105,1 88,6 73,5 68,7 80,5 72,3 65,3 68,5 66,6 71,9
Yn Nht 118,8 111,2 101,6 101,7 120,1 123,3 122,2 97,6 102,5 92,4
la Singapore 109,5 105,0 104,0 101,7 106,2 99,2 93,4 89,1 89,3 80,1
la i Loan 109,6 111,2 110,7 105,4 110,2 110,6 111,2 108,9 108,0 99,5
la c 108,5 96,9 72,8 70,5 75,5 69,3 62,9 84,4 65,1 57,5
Won Triu Tin 103,0 92,0 90,7 78,5 77,7 71,3 72,3 93,8 86,0 81,4
Baht Thi 105,0 103,3 95,1 94,0 96,9 84,9 79,3 82,6 77,9 69,9
Ringgit Malaysia 100,4 101,4 102,1 103,1 103,1 95,4 91,0 92,1 91,4 80,6
Vit Nam ng 107,3 108,7 109,3 105,8 101,7 98,6 94,2 80,4 78,7 79,8
Ngun: Tnh ton ca tc gi theo s liu ca NHNN, WEO v IFS (2011).
30
n ht nm 2010, ng USD cng mt gi kh nhiu so vi
ng tin ca cc i tc thng mi ln ca Vit Nam (xem Bng
1). Mc d cng ln gi theo chiu hng chung, nhng VND vn
ln gi nhiu hn so vi cc ng tin chu A nh la Singapore,
Won Triu Tin, Ringgit Malaysia v Nhn dn t Trung Quc. S
ln gi thc ca ng Vit Nam lm gim kh nng cnh tranh ca
hng ha xut khu ca Vit Nam trn th trng th gii.
Hnh 5. Ch s t gi thc theo qu ca mt s ng tin so vi USD:
Q1/2000-Q3/2010 (k gc: Q1/2001)
Ngun: Tnh ton ca tc gi theo s liu ca NHNN, WEO, GTIS v IFS (2011).
Hnh 6. Bin ng t gi thc: h s bin ng theo qu ca mt s ng tin
(QI/2001-QIII/2010)
Ngun: Tnh ton ca tc gi theo s liu ca NHNN, WEO, GTIS v IFS (2011).
31
CHNG 2
CC NHN t Quyt NH t Gi tHC
(Hu Hiu) V mC sai lCH
T GI THC HU HIU (REER): KHI NIM, CCH TNH V NG DNG
Chnh sch t gi ng mt vai tro quan trng trong chnh sch
kinh t v m ca mt nn kinh t v t gi l mt trong nhng cng
c quan trng nht ca chnh sch ny. V l thuyt, t gi phn nh
mc gi tng i (gia ng ni t v ng ngoi t). Khi mt nc
tham gia vo thng mi v cc giao dch khc vi mt s nc th
mt ch s chung phn nh gi tr chung ca ng tin c tnh da
trn cc t gi song phng v mc thng mi gia cc nc
ny vi nc ch nh. T gi hu hiu danh ngha c tnh da trn
c s ny v c nh ngha l t gi gia ng ni t vi cc ng
ngoi t ca cc nc khc ly quyn s l t trng thng mi hoc
thanh ton quc t ca nc vi cc nc kia (OECD, 2010). T
gi thc hu hiu th c tnh da trn NEER v iu chnh loi
b lm pht.
Cng thc c s dng tnh NEER v REER nh sau:
32
trong :
t l thi gian,
n l s lng cc i tc thng mi chnh ca Vit Nam,
e
jt
l t gi danh ngha ca ng tin nc j so vi VND ti
thi im t (tnh theo ch s). Lu l t gi y cng
c tnh l s VND cn i ly 1 n v tin t nc j.
P
t
l ch s gi hng ha trong nc,
P
jt
l ch s gi hng ha nc j,
w
jt
l t trng ca ng tin nc j ti thi im t, tng
ng vi t trng thng mi ca nc j trong tng kim
ngch thng mi ca Vit Nam vi cc nc c chn.
V thc nghim, cc ch s ny rt hu ch cho vic phn tch
chnh sch v tnh hnh kinh t v m ca mt nc. Chinn (2005)
ch ra nhiu trng hp trong nhng t gi hu hiu ny c th
c s dng cho nhiu vn kinh t khc nhau. C th tc gi
ch ra rng nhng ch s ny c th c s dng lm: (i) mt nhn
t quyt nh xem khng hong tin t c xy ra hay khng nh
trong trng hp khng hong ti chnh ng A nm 1997; (ii) mt
bin ph thuc phn nh s thay i trong nng sut lao ng (Hsieh
(1982), De Gregorio v Wolf (1994) v Chinn (2000)); (iii) mt bin
c lp gii thch thm ht thng mi ca mt nc (trng hp
thm ht thng mi ca M); v (iv) mt ch s xc nh kh nng
ph gi cnh tranh gia cc ng tin (trng hp khu vc cc nc
thuc Thi Bnh Dng, Chinn (2005)). Gn y, mt s lng ln
cc nghin cu gn REER vi tnh hnh tng trng kinh t v c
th l xut khu.
Vit Nam khng cng b chnh thc mt s liu no cho t gi
danh ngha hu hiu (NEER) hay t gi thc hu hiu (REER). Tuy
33
nhin, mt lot cc nghin cu v qun l t gi Vit Nam c s
dng NEER v REER. Mt s nghin cu thc hin vic c lng
cc ch s ny, cc nghin cu khc ch s dng chng t ngun khc.
Qu Tin t Quc t ch tnh ton v cng b cc ch s ny theo nm
cho giai on 2001-2006. Gn y, Nguyn Th Thu Hng v cc
ng tc gi (2010) tnh ton NEER v REER theo nm cho giai
on 2000-2009 s dng r thng mi vi 10 i tc thng mi
chnh ca Vit Nam. Nhng ch s ny sau c cp nht n
ht nm 2010 (Nguyn Th Thu Hng, 2011). Mt trong nhng c
lng tng hp nht v NEER v REER cho ti nay l ca Nguyn
Trn Phc v Nguyn c Th (2009), s dng c s liu theo nm
t 1992-2007 v theo thng t thng 1/1995 n thng 12/2007 vi
gi tin t ca 25 i tc thng mi chnh ca Vit Nam v quyn s
l t trng thng mi theo nm cho c hai chui s liu theo thng
v theo nm.
Hnh 7. Cc c lng ca NTTHng, N&N v IMF v REER (nm 2000 l nm gc)
Ngun: Nguyn Th Thu Hng (2011).
Mc d c s khc nhau v tn sut v thi gian s dng, nhng
ch s NEER v REER cho thy nhng xu hng thng nht: (i) s
mt gi thc t trong giai on 2000-2003; v (ii) s ln gi thc t
34
trong giai on 2004-2007 (Nguyn Th Thu Hng v cc ng tc
gi (2010)). Nguyn Th Thu Hng (2011) cho thy c s ci thin
i cht trong giai on 2008-2010 v REER nhng kt lun rng
n cui 2010 REER vn cao hn so vi nm 2003 hn 20% (Xem
Hnh 8).
TNH TON T GI THC HU HIU VIT NAM: S LIU MI V NHNG PHT
HIN MI
Do tnh trng thiu s liu v NEER v REER Vit Nam cng
nh nhng thiu st v phm vi v tn sut s liu trong cc nghin
cu hin c v cc ch s ny, nghin cu ny s khc phc nhng
hn ch ny bng cch tnh li cc ch s ny vi s liu c tn sut
cao hn v phm vi rng hn.
Pham vi rng hn
Ch s gi
Cn lu rng nghin cu ca chng ti vn s dng CPI v
ch s gi cho REER. y l s n gin ha chung t Chinn (2005).
Cc ch s gi c thu thp t nhiu ngun nh IMF, cc Ngn hng
D tr Lin bang Cleveland v St.Louis v Ngn hng Trung ng
ca mt s nc v nn kinh t. Ngoi tr Australia ch c CPI theo
qu, tt c cc nc con li u cng b CPI hng thng. Trong mt
s trng hp do thiu s liu, chng ti s dng gc trung gian khc
nhng tt c cc ch s u c a v mt gc l thng 1/2000.
Phm vi cc nc c s dng
Ban u 79 nc c chn v s liu thng mi thng nht
gia Vit Nam vi cc nc ny c sn theo thng trn Global Trade
Atlas. 79 nc ny chim hn 95% tng thng mi quc t (c
cng b bi 162 nc trong giai on 2001-2005 (UNCTAD, GTIS).
35
Khi kt hp vi s liu v gi c th ch con li 45 nc nhng tng
thng mi ca chung chim 78% tng thng mi quc t. T trng
thng mi ca nhng nc ny vi Vit Nam con cao hn. Vic loi
b mt s nc khi tnh REER (s bn thm di) khng lm nh
hng n gi tr v xu hng ca REER theo thi gian nn cui
cng chng ti s dng 20 nc.
Tn sut s liu ln hn
Chinn (2005)
7
ch ra rng vic tnh REER phi da trn mc
ch s dng n. Nu REER s c s dng theo di bin ng
ca t gi hoc tm kim nhng kt ni vi cc yu t c bn ca
nn kinh t th REER s c tnh vi tn sut cao hn. V chng ti
mun s dng REER tm hiu xu hng bin ng ca t gi t
nm 2000 nn vic s dng s liu theo thng vi s lng ln hn
cc i tc thng mi ly t H thng Thng tin Thng mi Quc
t - Global Trade Information System (GTIS) s c li hn. Mt
khc, tn sut s liu cao s b nhiu nhiu hn v c nhng sai lch
khng mong i so vi xu hng bnh thng. Trong trng hp
ny, vic lm trn chui s liu v s dng tn sut thp hn cng c
nhng u im ca n. T quan im chnh sch, s liu vi tn sut
cao hn s cung cp nhiu thng tin hn v vn v gip hiu r
hn nhng g ang din ra i vi cc bin v cc iu kin kinh t
v m quan trng, gip cc nh hoch nh chnh sch a ra nhng
quyt nh ng lc v ph hp nu cn. Mt khc, thu thp s liu
vi tn sut cao hn cng tn km hn. Thm vo , s dng s liu
GTIS c nhng u im hn so vi s liu thng mi ca Vit Nam
v n cung cp thng tin nht qun v chi tit theo thi gian. Sau khi
xem xt tt c nhng vn ny, chng ta bt u tnh REER theo
qu da trn s liu thng mi GTIS cho 45 nc (xem danh sch
cc nc c s dng trong Ph lc).
7
Chinn Menzie D. (2005). A Primer on Real Effective Exchange Rates: Determinants, Overvaluation, Trade
Flows and Competitive Devaluation..NBER Working Paper No. 11521, thng 8/2005.
36
CC KT QU CHNH V LA CHN TI U V TN SUT S LIU V PHM VI CC
NC C S DNG
Hnh 9 cho thy s bin ng ca 4 ch s: t gi thc hu hiu
(REER), t gi thc (VND/USD), t gi danh ngha (VND/USD) v
ch s tng trng xut khu trong giai on QI/2000-QII/2010. Ch
s tng trng xut khu c tc tng gn 5%/qu trong c giai
on (xu hng theo thi gian th cao hn (5,3%) trong giai on
trc 2007). Tuy nhin, REER th c hai xu hng tri chiu: mt
gi vi xu hng theo thi gian l 3,1%/qu trc QIV/2003 v ln
gi trong giai on sau vi xu hng theo thi gian l -1,5%. Kt
qu ny thng nht v xu hng nhng khc bit v mc vi vi
cc nghin cu khc. Vic REER c quan h cht ch vi t gi thc
VND/USD v tng trng xut khu
8
cng khng c g ng ngc
nhin v M tip tc chim t trng quan trng trong thng mi ca
Vit Nam (20%). Mi quan h ny khng nht thit hm rng cc
nhn t l nguyn nhn ca cc bin ng ca REER. Chng ta s
xem xt cc nhn t quyt nh REER trong phn sau.
Hnh 8. Ch s tng trng xut khu v t gi danh ngha, RER v REER
Ngun: Tnh ton ca tc gi theo s liu ca NHNN, WEO, GTIS v IFS (2011).
8
Mt hm hi quy gin n ca REER vi hai ch s ny cho kt qu cc h s dng v c ngha ln.
37
La chn ti u v tn sut s liu v phm vi cc nc
Nh cp t trc, chng ta phi nh i gia: (i) vic
a thm nc vo c lng vi s liu c tn sut cao hn tnh
REER c c thng tin chnh xc v kp thi hn; v (ii) chi ph.
ng thi, phm vi cc nc cng ln v tn sut s liu cng ln
th li ch bin t vic c c thng tin chnh xc v kp thi cng
gim. V vy, chng ti la chn mt mu ti u.
Hnh 9. REER vi cc s lng nc khc nhau
Ngun: Tnh ton ca tc gi theo s liu ca NHNN, WEO, GTIS v IFS (2011).
Trong Hnh 9, chng ti so snh REER thu c t ba mu vi
s lng nc khc nhau. Mu th nht gm 45 nc c c t
u nh m t trn. Mu hai gm 20 nc i tc ln nht ca Vit
Nam trong cc giai on 2000-2004 v/hoc 2005-2010. Mu ny
c gi l Nhm 20. Mu th ba gm 14 nc trong 200 i tc
ln nht ca c hai giai on. Kt qu cho thy khng c nhiu khc
bit v xu hng gia cc mu nhng mc th c thay i ln khi
s dng mu vi 14 nc. C lc s khc bit ln ti 10%. Mu 20
nc cho thy kt qu kh st vi mu 45 nc ban u. Chng ti
kt lun rng tp hp 20 nc l xem xt bin ng ca REER.
38
Chng ta cn lu rng hng thng mi ca Vit Nam thay i
kh thng xuyn trong qu kh v c th c trong tng lai gn do
nhng thay i trong nn kinh t th gii v thng mi nn nhm
20 ny c th cng s thay i. Cn cp nht thng tin nu mun s
dng REER lm cng c theo di.
CC NHN T QUYT NH T GI THC HU HIU V MC SAI LCH
o lng t gi cn bng
xc nh c mc sai lch ca t gi v tr li cho cu
hi mt ng tin c b nh gi qu cao hoc qu thp hay khng,
chng ta cn phi xc nh c mc cn bng ca t gi. Hu ht
cc nghin cu v cc nhn t quyt nh t gi thng s dng khi
nim t gi cn bng c s (FEER) do Williamson (1994)
9
a ra,
theo t gi cn bng c hiu l t gi thc t tha mn ng
thi c cn i bn trong v bn ngoi. Cn i bn trong t c
khi nn kinh t t sn lng tim nng con cn i bn ngoi c
xc nh bi mt cn cn thanh ton bn vng trong trung hn, tc
l mc thng d/thm ht ti khon vng lai ph hp vi dong chy
ra/vo ca vn trong di hn. T gi cn bng FEER c xu hng
b qua cc yu t trong ngn hn mang tnh chu k v yu t u c
trn th trng ngoi hi. Vic xc nh t gi cn bng ny thng
oi hi phi s dng cc m hnh kinh t lng v m c quy m ln
hoc cc m hnh phn khi. Mt dng khc ca FEER l t gi t
nhin (NATREX) do Stein (1994, 1995, 2002)
10
a ra cng da trn
cc cn i v m bn trong v bn ngoi. Tuy nhin, xc nh
NATREX, chng ta khng ch xem xt cc iu kin trong trung hn
9
Williamson John (1994). Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates, Institute for International Economics,
Washington DC.
10
Stein, Jerome, Polly Allen, and Associates (1994). The Natural Real Exchange Rate of the US-dollar and
Determinants of Capital Flows, In Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates, edited by John Williamson,
Institute for International Economics, Washington DC; Stein, Jerome, Polly Allen, and Associates (1995).
Fundamental Determinants of Exchange Rates, Oxford: Clarendon Press.
39
m con c trong di hn khi m tng vn v n nc ngoi hi t v
cc gi tr trng thi dng ca n.
Cch tip cn FEER c nhm t vn v t gi (CGER)
ca IMF p dng nh gi t gi ca mt s nc. Chng hn, mt
nghin cu ca b phn nghin cu thuc IMF (xem IMF 2006) s
dng m hnh hi quy theo nc (bao gm cc nn kinh t pht trin
v mi ni) da trn cc cch tip cn khc nhau v t gi nhm xc
nh sai lch ca t gi mt nc. Nghin cu ny s dng 7 bin
s (cn i ti kha, yu t v dn s, ti sn nc ngoi rong, cn i
v du th, tng trng kinh t, 2 bin gi m t khng hong kinh
t v c trung tm ti chnh) a ra mt ti khon vng lai tiu
chun. y c coi l mc cn bng ca ti khon vng lai. S sai
lch ca ti khon vng lai so vi chun c coi l nguyn nhn dn
ti sai lch v t gi. Do vy, t gi phi c iu chnh phc hi
li mc cn bng ny ca ti khon vng lai. Mc iu chnh c
tnh ton da vo co gin ca t gi i vi ti khon vng lai.
Mc d cch tip cn ny kh tt nhng vic p dng n cho
mi mt nc n le c th c mt s l hng. Vic p dng mt
chun chung cho cc nc khc nhau c cc iu kin th ch khc
nhau v do c cc phn ng chnh sch khc nhau i vi cng
mt c sc vi cc knh tc ng khc nhau cha chc l tt.
Trn thc t, mi quan h gia ti khon vng lai v cc nhn t nh
hng khc mi nc khng ch ph thuc vo cc c im ring
ca mi nc m quan trng hn con ph thuc vo mc nhy
cm ca ti khon vng lai i vi cc nhn t ny. M hnh hi quy
theo nc khng th tch bit c nhng khc bit ny m n gi
nh cc yu t l ng nht. Cc cch tip cn khc c m t
trong nghin cu ca IMF cng gp phi vn tng t. Do ,
vic p dng cc phng php ny cho trng hp Vit Nam cn
phi rt thn trng bi v cc vn cp trn.
40
Mt cch tip cn khc l da vo khi nim t gi cn bng
hnh vi (BEER) do MacDonald (1997)
11
v Clark v MacDonald
(1998)
12
a ra trong lin h t gi thc t vi mt nhm cc bin
kinh t v m bi mt phng trnh duy nht. Phng trnh ny sau
s c c lng thng k s dng chui s liu quan st c
v cc gi tr di hn ca cc bin c s nhm c lng t gi cn
bng. Mt dng khc ca BEER l t gi cn bng di hn (PEER) l
phng php xc nh t gi cn bng s dng vc t ng tch hp
phn gi t gi thnh cu phn di hn v ngn hn trong cu
phn di hn chnh l t gi cn bng. Mt cch tip cn na l da
vo vic c lng chui s liu theo thi gian mi quan h ng
tch hp trong di hn gia t gi thc t v cc i lng c bn
trong trung hn v di hn nh s khc bit v li sut, ti sn nc
ngoi rong, nng sut, gi tng i gia hng xut khu - nhp
khu. Chng ti cho rng phng php ny thch hp hn c cho
trng hp Vit Nam trong iu kin hn ch v s liu. Chng ta s
xem xt c th phng php ny di y.
Cch tip cn BEER cng c p dng trong rt nhiu nghin
cu gn y v t gi. Trong m hnh BEER a ra bi Frait v cc
ng tc gi (2004)
13
, cc bin gii thch bao gm s khc bit v
nng sut, gi tng i gia hng thng mi v phi thng mi
(phn nh hiu ng Balassa-Samuelson), ti sn nc ngoi rong,
gi tng i gia hng xut khu - nhp khu, m ca nn kinh
t (t trng tng kim ngch xut nhp khu trong GDP), s khc bit
v li sut thc, chi tiu Chnh ph v FDI.
Frait v cc ng tc gi (2004) s dng 4 phng php xc
nh t gi cn bng: (i) phng php lc Hodrick-Prescott; (ii)
11
MacDonald, Ronald (1997) What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Long and Short of It, Working
Paper no. WP/97/21, IMF, Washington DC.
12
Clark, Peter B., and Ronald MacDonald (1998). Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals: A Meth-
odological Comparison of BEERs and FEERs, Working Paper no. WP/98/67, IMF, Washington DC.
13
Frait, Jan, Lubos Komarek, and Martin Melecky (2006). The Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in the
Five Central European Countries, Working Paper no. 739, Department of Economics, The University of
Warwick, Coventry.
41
phng php lc Band-Pass; (iii) phng php Engle-Granger; v
(iv) phng php ARDL. Hai phng php cui l da trn m hnh
BEER ni trn.
Jongwanich (2009)
14
a ra mt phng php khc hon ton
c th thc hin c trong thc t xc nh mc sai lch ca
t gi s dng m hnh BEER. Cc bin c bn m Jongwanich s
dng cng kh tng ng vi nhm cc bin s m Frait v cc
ng tc gi (2009) s dng. Tuy nhin, t gi thc m Jongwanich
(2009) s dng khng phi l t gi song phng m l t gi a
phng (REER). Sau khi tnh ton REER v c c cc s liu v
cc bin kinh t c bn, Jongwanich (2009) s dng th tc Johansen
xc nh mi quan h ng tch hp trong di hn gia cc bin
v qua xc nh c t gi cn bng.
Sau khi xc nh c t gi cn bng th vic tip theo s l
xc nh mc sai lch ca t gi. C Jongwanich (2009) v Frait
cng cc ng tc gi (2004) u cho rng mc sai lch ca t gi
l s khc bit gia t gi hin hnh v mc cn bng trong di hn
ca n. C hai khi nim v mc sai lch ca t gi. Khi nim
th nht l sai lch hin tai, chnh l s khc bit gia t gi hin
hnh v gi tr c lng ca t gi s dng cc gi tr hin hnh ca
cc bin kinh t c bn. Sai lch hin ti chnh l s bin ng ngn
hn ca t gi. Khi nim th 2 l tng sai lch, l s khc bit
gia t gi hin hnh v gi tr c lng ca t gi s dng cc gi
tr bn vng ca cc bin kinh t c bn.
Ging nh Clark v MacDonald (1998) v Jongwanich (2009),
chng ta nh ngha t gi thc hin hnh nh sau:

14
Jongwanich, Juthathip (2009). Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate, Misalignment, and Export Performance
in Developing Asia, Working Paper no. 151, ADB, Manila.
42
trong T l nhm cc bin ngn hn, Z
1t
v Z
2t
l cc bin
kinh t c bn trung v di hn. Gi Z
1t
v Z
2t
l cc gi tr bn vng
ca cc bin kinh t c bn trung v di hn th t gi cn bng c
xc nh bi cng thc sau:

Sai lch hin ti l:
Tng sai lch l:
M hnh cho Vit Nam
Nghin cu ca chng ti v t gi cn bng v mc sai lch
ca t gi s da trn cch tip cn BEER nh Frait v cc ng tc
gi (2004) v Jongwanich (2009) lm. T gi thc cn bng c
xc nh t ngang bng li sut ngm nh (UIP) v ph thuc vo
cc bin kinh t v m c bn nh s khc bit v nng sut, ti sn
nc ngoi rong, gi tng i gia hng xut khu - nhp khu,
m ca nn kinh t, s khc bit v li sut thc, chi tiu chnh ph
v FDI. Phng trnh t gi nh sau
15
:

NFA c d on c mi quan h ngc chiu vi REER. S
gia tng ca NFA thng c tc ng v mt thu nhp lm tng cu
ni a. khi phc cc cn i bn trong v bn ngoi, gi ca
hng phi thng mi phi tng so vi gi hng thng mi. Do ,
REER gim xung (tc l ln gi).
15
V vic xy dng phng trnh ny, xem Clark v MacDonald (1998), Jongwanich (2009).
43
Tng trng nng sut khu vc mu dch ni a so vi cc
nc bn hng (PROD) c tc ng ngc chiu ti REER thng
qua hiu ng Balassa-Samuelson. S gia tng ca PROD lm tng
cu v lao ng trong nc trong ngnh sn xut hng mu dch.
Di iu kin v vic lm y , lao ng s b ht t khu vc
hng mu dch sang khu vc hng phi mu dch. Do , mc lng
khu vc phi mu dch s tng lm tng gi hng phi mu dch. Kt
qu l REER s gim.
S ci thin v gi tng i xut nhp khu (TOT) c ngha l
gi xut khu tng ln tng i so vi gi nhp khu. iu ny s
nh hng ti t gi REER thng qua hiu ng thu nhp v thay th.
Mt mt, thu nhp tng lm tng cu ni a, qua lm REER gim.
Mt khc, gi hng nhp khu thp tng i c ngha l lng cu
v hng mu dch tng ln v lng cu v hng phi mu dch gim
xung. Hiu ng thay th ny do dn ti vic gi hng phi mu
dch gim lm t gi tng. V hiu ng thu nhp v thay th ngc
chiu nhau nn xu hng tc ng ca TOT ti REER l khng r
rng. Nh Jongwanich (2009) ch ra, rt nhiu nghin cu thc
nghim cho thy cc nc ang pht trin, s ci thin v TOT
c xu hng lm gim REER v hiu ng thu nhp thng mnh hn
hiu ng thay th cc nc ny.
m ca ln hn ca nn kinh t dn ti cu v hng mu
dch cao hn. khi phc trng thi cn bng th gi hng phi mu
dch phi gim lm dch chuyn cu t hng mu dch sang hng
phi mu dch. Do , REER c d on l s c quan h thun
chiu vi m ca ca nn kinh t.
Tc ng ca chi tiu chnh ph (GEXP) i vi t gi REER
l khng r rng v ph thuc vo vic Chnh ph chi nhiu vo
hng mu dch hay phi mu dch. Tng chi tiu chnh ph vo hng
phi mu dch c ngha l cu v hng phi mu dch tng v gi ca
n cng tng ln. Do , REER s gim. Mt khc nu Chnh ph
44
chi nhiu vo hng mu dch th c tc ng ngc li i vi t gi.
Nu nh Chnh ph chi phn ln vo hng phi mu dch th chng ta
on rng GEXP v REER c quan h ngc chiu.
C chnh lch v li sut thc v FDI u c d on l c
mi quan h nghch chiu vi t gi. Chnh lch li sut cng cao
lm cho ngun vn chy vo trong nc cng nhiu trong khi FDI
cao cng ng ngha vi vic dong vn chy vo s cao. Do ,
REER s gim phc hi cn bng bn trong v bn ngoi.
Bng 2. c lng REER di han cho mi quc gia: Tm tt kt qu cho cc nc
thu nhp thp (LICs) v cc nn kinh t mi ni (EMEs)
LICs EMEs
S Phn trm S Phn trm
S h s di hn c c lng 52 51
Trong s c ngha thng k l 29 55,8 48 94,1
S h s di hn c c lng c du khng r rng 30 24
Trong s c ngha thng k 16 53,3 24 100
Trong c du ng v c ngha thng k 10 33,3 16 66,7
Ngun: Gabriel Di Bella, Mark Lewis, and Aurlie Martin (2007).
M hnh ny c s dng kh nhiu trong nhng nm gn
y v cho nhng kt qu rt hu ch. Tuy nhin, cn phi ch mt s
yu t lm cho vic c lng, p dng v din gii REER cc nc
ang pht trin tr nn phc tp hn. Cc yu t ny gm c cc c sc
v gi tng i gia xut khu - nhp khu, nhng thay i thng
xuyn v mt chnh tr v th ch, s khng hon ho ca th trng,
tnh d thay i ca cc dong ti chnh, cc vn v iu hnh t gi
v kim sot vn
16
. Do vy, vic c lng REER c th c kt qu
ngoi d on v kh gii thch. Nhm nghin cu ca IMF ch ra rng
16
Gabriel Di Bella, Mark Lewis, and Aurlie Martin (2007). Assessing Competitiveness and Real Ex-
change Rate Misalignment in Low-Income Countries. IMF Working Paper, August 2007. Policy Develop-
ment and Review Department
45
ch 1/3 cc h s di hn c lng c trong cc m hnh cc nc
LICs l ng v du ng thi c ngha thng k (Bng 2).
LA CHN M HNH V KT QU THC NGHIM CHO VIT NAM
Do mt s kh khn v s sn c v tin cy ca s liu,
chng ti tin hnh c lng t gi REER Vit Nam vi s liu
theo qu bt u t qu I/2000 tr li y.
S liu s dng c lng t gi cn bng v mc sai
lch ca t gi l s liu chui thi gian theo qu, ly ch yu t 2
ngun chnh - Tng cc Thng k v IFS - cho giai on 2000-2010.
NFA c tnh theo t l ca NFA ca ton b h thng ngn hng
(c s d liu IFS) trn GDP danh ngha (ly t GSO). PROD l t l
gia GDP thc t bnh qun trn lao ng ca Vit Nam v ca M,
dng lm bin thay th cho khc bit v nng sut gia Vit Nam
v cc bn hng chnh. S liu c tnh ton da trn s liu ly t
Tng cc Thng k Vit Nam v c s d liu ca Ngn hng D tr
Lin bang M. TOT c tnh bng t l gia ch s gi xut khu
v ch s gi nhp khu ly t Tng cc Thng k. m ca ca
nn kinh t Vit Nam c thay th bng t l gia tng kim ngch
xut nhp khu trn GDP danh ngha, tnh ton t s liu ca Tng
cc Thng k. Chi tiu chnh ph, GEXP, l t l gia chi tiu chnh
ph trn GDP danh ngha. S liu ly t Tng cc Thng k v B
Ti chnh. Cui cng l FDI o bng t l u t trc tip nc ngoi
trn GDP danh ngha ly t c s d liu IFS. Tt c cc bin, tr
REER, u c iu chnh tnh ma v bi cc tc gi.
La chn m hnh
Chng ti s dng th tc tiu chun c lng REER.
Trc ht, chng ti s dng cc k thut c lng v m hnh
thch hp xc nh cc yu t tc ng ti REER trong di hn.
Sau gi tr c lng BEER s c tnh bng gi tr c lng
46
di hn ca REER da trn gi tr lc ca cc bin kinh t c bn.
S chnh lch gia gi tr hin hnh ca REER v BEER c lng
c chnh l lch ca t gi. Phn quan trng nht trong th tc
ny chnh l vic xc nh m hnh.
Nh cp trn, chng ta c th s dng m hnh iu
chnh sai s c lng cc h s di hn cho phng trnh REER.
Trong trng hp c nhiu hn 1 vc t ng tch hp th phng
trnh di hn c th kh xc nh hn. Kim nh v ng tch hp
cho thy c 5 vc t ng tch hp (Bng 3). V vy, vic xc nh
mi quan h trong di hn vi ch 1 phng trnh l kh khn. Do ,
m hnh iu chnh sai s c ve nh khng thch hp trong trng
hp ny.
Bng 3. Kim nh mc ng tch hp: tr (sai phn bc 1): 1 n 3
Kim nh Trace Test Kim nh Max-Eigen
S phng trnh ng tch hp gi nh Gi tr Eigen
Thng k
Trace
Gi tr kim
nh 0.05
Thng k
Max-Eigen
Gi tr kim
nh 0,05
Khng * 0,864 233,043 95,754 73,761 40,078
Ti a c 1 * 0,780 159,282 69,819 56,050 33,877
Ti a c 2 * 0,699 103,232 47,856 44,467 27,584
Ti a c 3 * 0,562 58,765 29,797 30,567 21,132
Ti a c 4 * 0,531 28,198 15,495 28,023 14,265
Ti a c 5 0,005 0,175 3,841 0,175 3,841
Ch : Kim nh Trace cho thy c 5 phng trnh ng tch hp ti mc 0,05.
Kim nh gi tr Max-eigenvalue cho thy c 5 phng trnh ng tch hp ti mc 0,05.
Do nguyn nhn cp trn, chng ti s s dng m hnh phn
phi tr t hi quy a thc (Autoregressive Polynomial Distributed
Lag) ARPDL. V l thuyt, m hnh ny c dng nh sau:
47
trong :
REER: t gi thc hu hiu
FDI: t l FDI trn GDP
NFA: t l ti sn nc ngoi rong trn GDP
OPEN: ch s m ca ca nn kinh t
PROD: ch s chnh lch nng sut
tt c cc bin trn u dng lgarit;
Phn t hi quy c nh ngha thuc mt trong cc dng sau:
Cc bc 1, 2 v 4 th hin tc ng tr sau 1 qu, na nm, v
1 nm. Vic la chn dng no s ph thuc vo cc tiu ch AIC v
SBC. Bng 4 tm tt cc kt qu c lng ca m hnh vi 4 la chn
t hi quy nh cp trn. T kt qu ny, chng ti quyt nh chn
dng t hi quy AR(1) v n cho gi tr AIC v SBC nh nht.
Bng 4. Tm tt cc kt qu hi quy vi 4 la chn v t hi quy
AR1 AR12 AR2 AR4
H s
Thng
k t
H s
Thng
k t
H s
Thng
k t
H s
Thng
k t
FDI -0,056 -1,076 -0,071 -1,238 -0,094 -1,916 -0,099 -1,990
NFA 0,504 3,900 0,502 3,704 0,511 4,271 0,537 4,699
OPEN -0,214 -1,619 -0,255 -1,524 -0,267 -1,724 -0,402 -2,427
TOT -0,191 -0,569 -0,374 -0,910 -0,385 -1,089 -0,095 -0,298
PROD -4,328 -5,609 -3,790 -3,372 -3,484 -4,190 -3,678 -3,817
R-squared 0,954 0,955 0,949 0,950
48
Adjusted R-squared 0,933 0,931 0,925 0,921
Akaike info criterion -3,662 -3,598 -3,535 -3,419
Schwarz criterion -3,139 -3,026 -3,007 -2,835
F-statistic 46,749 40,237 40,469 32,950
Durbin-Watson stat 2,061 1,831 1,334 1,134
C th thy rng ngoi NFA th tt c cc h s c lng ca
cc bin c lp u cho du ng nh d on, tuy rng ch c 2 h
s l c ngha thng k. H s c lng ca NFA c du ngc
vi d on ban u nhng li c ngha thng k. iu ny cng
th hin trong cc c lng s dng dng t hi quy khc v kh
nht qun. Do vy, chng ti kt lun rng c mi quan h di hn
gia cc bin t gi, ti sn nc ngoi rong, chnh lch nng sut,
m ca nn kinh t v FDI. Trong cc bin c bn th chnh lch
nng sut, m ca nn kinh t v FDI mt mc no c
tc ng nh d on trong di hn ti t gi. So vi kt qu c
lng cho cc nc c thu nhp thp hoc cc nn kinh t mi ni
trong Chinn (2005) th c lng REER ca Vit Nam cng cho kt
qu kh tt. C mt s vn cn l gii, chng hn nh tc ng
tri chiu ca NFA ti t gi cn bng nhng nhn chung kt qu c
lng l c ngha. Nu chnh lch v nng sut tng 1% s lm
REER gim 4,33% (hng Vit Nam ln gi) trong khi 1% tng ln
ca FDI lm cho t gi thc hu hiu gim khong 0,056%. Bng 4
cng cho thy nu m ca ca nn kinh t tng 1% s lm t gi
gim 0,21%. im cui cng c th thy l mi quan h gia NFA v
REER Vit Nam khng ng nh l thuyt d bo khi m theo c
lng s gia tng ca NFA thm 1% s lm REER tng 0,5%.
Hnh 10 v cc gi tr REER thc t v cc gi tr c lng
BEER. Trc ht c th thy rng, nu xt v bin ng theo thi
gian th t gi cn bng theo c lng bin ng theo cng chiu
49
vi REER trong 10 nm qua, tc l gim gi cho ti qu cui cng
ca nm 2003 v ln gi sau tr i. iu th hai, khi so snh vi
gi tr cn bng, ta c th thy l t gi hin hnh b nh gi cao
trong giai on t qu I nm 2000 cho ti qu II nm 2002. Sau giai
on ny th t gi thc hu hiu li lin tc b nh gi thp (so vi
gi tr cn bng) cho ti u nm 2008. K t tr i t gi REER
li i vo giai on nh gi cao ging nh giai on u nhng nm
2000 nhng mc cao hn trc v cho ti gia nm 2010 b
nh gi cao hn 20% so vi gi tr cn bng. iu ny lm gim sc
cnh tranh v gi ca hng Vit Nam so vi cc nc khc.
Hnh 10. T gi cn bng
nh gi chi tit mc sai lch ca t gi, chng ti tnh
ton v v th 2 loi lch t gi l sai lch hin ti v tng sai
lch, kt qu c trnh by Hnh 11. Giai on trc nm 2002,
tng sai lch l m (tng ng vi nh gi qu cao) trong
c thi im t ti trn -20%. Giai on tip theo l giai on t
gi b nh gi thp vi tng sai lch dao ng trong khong 0 n
18% cho ti u nm 2008. Trong nhng nm gn y, mc lch
ca t gi hin hnh so vi mc cn bng dao ng trong khong t
0 n -20%. T Hnh 11 cng c th thy rng phn ln s sai lch
v t gi l do s tc ng ca cc yu t ngn hn v lch hin ti
chim phn ln trong tng lch ca t gi.
8.4
8.5
8.6
8.7
8.8
8.9
9.0
00:1 02:1 04:1 06:1 08:1 10:1
BEER_PDL REE_PDL_AR1 VNREER
8.4
8.5
8.6
8.7
8.8
8.9
9.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
VNREER
VNREER_HP
REE_PDL_AR1
BEER_PDL
50
Hnh 11. Sai lch ca T gi: Tng sai lch v Sai lch hin tai
Kt lun
Kt qu c lng t gi thc hu hiu di hn v tnh ton
sai lch ca t gi khng nh mt thc t l ng tin ca Vit
Nam lin tc b nh gi cao trong 3 nm u ca thp k va qua
v tip tc xu hng trong 3 nm gn y vi mc con nghim
trng hn trc. Xen gia hai giai on ny l giai on m ng
tin b nh gi thp nhng khng n nh v c lc b lch ti 20%
trc khi khng hong ton cu xy ra. Kt qu ny cn phi kim
tra thm, bao gm c cc phn tch nhy cm ca vic la chn
m hnh v cc bin s. Tuy nhin, kt qu ny cng cho thy con c
nhiu vn cn c tip tc tho lun v phn tch su hn v cch
thc, cng c, u tin chnh sch trong vn qun l t gi trong
thi gian qua. Rt c th s sai lch t gi nh phn tch trn l
kt qu ca vic la chn chnh sch, u tin n nh v m, hn ch
nhng tc ng tiu cc ca vic ph gi ng tin n cc cn i v
m ni chung, trong c vn tr n nc ngoi, n nh gi c.
Tuy nhin, ngay c trong trng hp th nhng nh hng bt li
ca vic duy tr sai lch t gi trong thi gian di cng cn c xem
xt n v c nhng iu chnh ph hp, kp thi v cn bng hn.
iu s gip cho vic iu hnh t gi trong tng lai hiu qu,
linh hot hn, to mi trng cnh tranh thun li cho nn kinh t.
-.20
-.15
-.10
-.05
.00
.05
.10
.15
00:1 02:1 04:1 06:1 08:1 10:1
-.3
-.2
-.1
.0
.1
.2
00:1 02:1 04:1 06:1 08:1 10:1
51
CHNG 3
tC NG Ca t Gi N xut kHu:
m HNH VECm
c nhiu cng trnh nghin cu n tc ng ca t gi
n xut khu ni ring v cn cn thng mi ni chung. Cc cng
trnh nghin cu ny nhn chung u xy dng trn c s hm xut
khu v hm cu nhp khu. Thm vo , phn ng cc nghin
cu trong lnh vc ny tp trung vo tc ng ca t gi n tng
xut/nhp khu ca c nn kinh t
17
trn c s kim nh iu kin
Marshall-Lerner v tc ng ca t gi n vic ci thin cn cn
thanh ton hoc cn cn thng mi.
Cng c nhng cng trnh nh gi tc ng ca t gi n
tng sn phm ring bit. Konandreas v cc ng tc gi (1978)
c lng hm cu nhp khu i vi la m ca M t 5 khu vc
khc nhau. Theo cch c lng ny, cu nhp khu la m ca M
l hm ph thuc vo lng la m sn xut ti ch (c coi nh
mt hng thay th vi sn phm la m M), gi c tng i gia
la m ti ch v la m nhp khu t M, thu nhp bnh qun v
lng la m c xut khu t M theo chng trnh u i c
bit. Theo m hnh ny th t gi c th tc ng n xut khu la
m ca M theo hai knh tc ng chnh. l gi tng i (hay
t gi thc gia la M v ng tin a phng v knh th hai l
17
Senhadji (1998), Vasquez v Charquero (2007), Garg v Ramesh (2005).
52
thu nhp bnh qun u ngi tnh theo USD. Mt nghin cu khc
ca Gunawardana v cc ng tc gi (2008) cp n tc ng
ca t gi n mt sn phm. l m hnh hm cu ca Thi Lan
v sn phm t sa ca Australia. Cng trnh ny s dng hm cu
nhp khu truyn thng trong bin gi c v bin t gi c tch
ring ra. Gi tng i c xc nh nh l t s gia gi xut khu
ca M vi ch s gi ca cc i th cnh tranh trn th trng nc
nhp khu.
NH DNG M HNH
Trong nghin cu ny chng ti s dng m hnh iu chnh
sai s vector (vector error correction model (VECM)) nh gi tc
ng ca t gi n xut khu ca Vit Nam ra cc th trng khc.
V mt nguyn tc, m hnh ny c th p dng cho c bin s v khi
lng xut khu v tng kim ngch xut khu cho mt sn phm nht
nh. Tuy nhin, vic s dng bin kim ngch xut khu thay cho khi
lng xut khu trong m hnh c mt s u im nht nh:
Cc kt qu suy ra t 2 m hnh (s dng khi lng xut
khu hay kim ngch xut khu) c th khng khc nhau
nhiu v ngha thng k. S khc bit c chng s l
mc nh hng, th hin gi tr ca cc h s c c
lng. Thc ra v kim ngch xut khu bng tch ca khi
lng v gi c nn khi a vo m hnh di dng hm
logarit, chng ta c th c 2 m hnh tng ng vi cc
sai s khc nhau. Trong c hai trng hp th c lng thu
c u l c lng khng chch.
S dng hm c lng vi bin gii thch l khi lng
xut khu s kh ch ra tc ng ca t gi n cn cn
thng mi hoc cn cn thanh ton. Do vy s hn ch
ngha ca m hnh. Ngc li, c lng hm kim ngch
53
xut khu s cho ta nhng thng tin nhn bit tt hn v
tc ng ca t gi n cn cn thng mi/cn cn thanh
ton.
im cui cng l phm vi p dng ca m hnh vi bin
gii thch l kim ngch xut khu s rng hn v trong nhiu
trng hp thng tin v khi lng xut khu l khng c
c hoc kh tip cn.
Bn cnh , mt trong nhng li th ca vic s dng m hnh
VECM l c th c c cc thng tin v tc ng ca t gi trong
di hn v ngn hn, cc hm phn ng (impulse function).
M hnh VECM s dng trong nghin cu ny c dng chung
nh sau:
Trong :
EXPORT l log ca xut khu ca Vit Nam sang M.
DEMAND l log ca tng kim ngch nhp khu ca M (theo
tng sn phm). Gi tr ny c coi nh l bin i din cho tng
nhu cu ca M v sn phm trn.
EXRATE l t gi thc ca ng Vit Nam.
Phng trnh th hin phng trnh cn bng trong di hn
hoc vector ng tch hp gia t gi v xut khu. Cc h s
1
v

2
trong cc phng trnh v th hin tc iu chnh n trng thi
cn bng di hn ca nn kinh t.
54
Trong nghin cu ny chng ti tch hai thnh t: t gi danh
ngha v ch s gi c ra khi bin t gi thc xem xt tc ng ca
c hai bin s ny: t gi danh ngha v ch s gi c n xut khu.
Cch tip cn ny c nhng u im hn so vi vic nghin cu tc
ng ca t gi thc bi l trn thc t cc giao dch thng mi gia
nh xut khu v nhp khu thng c da trn c s t gi danh
ngha (c th iu chnh theo ch s gi c trong mt vi trng hp).
Do vy bin t gi danh ngha s l ph hp hn so vi bin t gi
thc trong vic ra cc quyt nh v xut khu. Cc doanh nghip
vn tip tc xut khu ngay c khi t gi thc c chiu hng tng
gi trong khi t gi danh ngha vn gim. Thc t v xut khu ca
Vit Nam trong thi gian quan khi t gi thc v t gi danh ngha
tin trin theo hai xu hng ngc chiu nhau do mc lm pht tng
cao c ve nh ng h lun im ny. C th coi y nh mt hin
tng o gic v t gi khi nh xut khu vn tip tc xut khu
khi thu nhp thc t b gim do t gi thc tng trong khi t gi danh
ngha gim, tng t nh hin tng o gic tin t trn th trng
lao ng khi ngi lao ng tng cu lao ng khi tin lng danh
ngha tng mc d tin lng thc t gim.
Do vy m hnh p dng trong nghin cu ny bao gm 3
bin c bn ni sinh: kim ngch xut khu EXPORT, t gi danh
ngha EXRATE v ch s gi c PRICE. Dng tng qut ca m hnh
VECM c th hin trong cc phng trnh di y:


55
Trong v l cc vector ng tch hp. Tt c cc bin
u dng logarit t nhin.
Trong m hnh ny cc bin tng nhp khu ca M USIMPORT
v ch s gi c ca M, USPRICE l cc bin ngoi sinh. Gi thit
ny c xy dng trn c s l khi lng xut khu ca Vit Nam
vo th trng M l cha ln n mc chi phi th trng M c
v gi c v khi lng giao dch.
Mt trong nhng vn c quan tm hin nay nc ta
l nh hng ca Trung Quc ti cc th trng xut khu ca Vit
Nam. Mt mt chnh sch t gi ca Trung quc theo hng duy
tr ng Nhn dn t yu c tc dng thc y xut khu ca Trung
Quc do vy c th nh hng n cc i th cnh tranh khc trn
cng mt th trng. Vit Nam c nhiu im chung v danh mc
hng ha xut khu vo cc th trng chnh nh Trung Quc (dt
may, giy dp, in t). V vy, c th xut khu ca Vit Nam b nh
hng ca xut khu t Trung Quc. Mt khc, nu l cc mt
hng b sung th tc ng cnh tranh s theo chiu khc hn. xem
xt nh hng ca c 2 yu t: kim ngch xut khu v t gi ng
nhn dn t n xut khu ca Vit Nam trn cng mt th trng,
chng ti m rng m hnh bng cch b sung thm 2 bin ngoi
sinh l kim ngch xut khu ca Trung Quc v t gi nhn dn t so
vi ng tin bn a ti th trng nhp khu. M hnh m rng vn
l m hnh VECM vi 3 bin ngoi sinh v 2 vector ng tch hp.
S LIU
Trong nghin cu ny chng ti dng 2 ngun s liu thng
mi chnh c lng m hnh. i vi th trng M, chng ti
s dng c s liu ca US Trade data vi mc SITC cp 3 (3-digit
SITC). Theo cch phn loi ny th c ti 262 nhm sn phm. Tuy
nhin trong m hnh, chng ti ch s dng 195 nhm sn phm v
56
mt s nhm sn phm khc khng c s liu cho vic c lng
m hnh. Bn cnh , chng ti cng s dng s liu thng mi
ca Global Trade Information System (GTIS) trong phn loi HS
cp 2 (2-digit HS) cho c lng m hnh xut khu ca Vit Nam
vo cc th trng M, chu u (nhm 15 nc s dng ng tin
chung Euro), Nht Bn v Hn Quc. y l nhng th trng xut
khu chnh ca Vit Nam.
S liu v ch s gi v t gi ca Vit Nam c ly ra t
ngun ca Tng cc Thng k v Vietcombank. Cc s liu ny cng
c s dng trong vic tnh REER phn trc. S liu v t
gi v ch s gi c ca cc i tc cng l nhng s liu c s
dng trong phn tnh REER ni trn.
CC KT QU CHNH
C 3 m hnh ni trn u c c lng sau khi thc
hin cc kim nh thng k v tch hp, vector ng tch hp.
iu ng ni l cc kt qu kh nht qun, bt k ngun s liu s
dng (SITC hay GTIS). Vic thm cc bin ni sinh lin quan n
Trung Quc c lm thay i v mc tc ng ca t gi n xut
khu, nhng khng lm thay i n chiu hng tc ng chung.
M hnh p dng cho cc th trng xut khu ca Vit Nam cng
c cng chung mt kt lun: trn 2/3 kim ngch xut khu ca Vit
Nam chu nh hng tch cc ca vic gim gi danh ngha ng
Vit Nam. Ni cch khc, vic gim gi ng Vit Nam v tng th
c th c li cho xut khu. S dng cc kt qu t vic c lng
m hnh VECM, c bit l thng tin v hm phn hi xung (impulse
response function), ta c th biu din kt qu tc ng ca t gi n
xut khu thng qua ma trn tc ng hai thi k di y.
Theo bng ny, cc gi tr ca hm phn hi xung thi k
c th hin trn cc ct con gi tr lin quan n hm phn hi
57
xung thi k 2 c th hin theo dong. Bng 5 cho thy c ti
90% kim ngch xut khu c th c ci thin ti giai on 2 sau
khi ng Vit Nam gim gi, v ch c 10% b gim do tc ng ny.
Tuy nhin, tc ng n ci thin xut khu s suy gim dn theo thi
gian do tc ng iu chnh ca th trng v sau hai giai on tip
theo ch con 3/4 kim ngch xut khu con c kh nng tip tc ci
thin. y l mt kt qu rt kh quan v tc ng tch cc ca vic
gim gi ng tin Vit Nam i vi xut khu. Xem xt c th v cc
ngnh xut khu c hng li t vic gim gi ng Vit Nam cho
thy y l cc nhm hng hin ang dn u kim ngch xut khu
vo th trng M nh dt may, da giy, thc phm, g.
Bng 5. Tc ng ca t gi n xut khu theo hm phn hi xung:
Th trng M, s liu SICT
Giai on 2, Giai on 4 Gim di 10% Gim t 0- 2,5% Tng t 0-2,5% Tng s
Gim di 10% 7,07 0,11 0,28 7,45
Gim t 0- 2.5% 0,31 0,00 1,85 2,16
Tng t 0-2.5% 12,27 3,46 74,54 90,27
Tng s 19,60 3,58 76,68 100,00
Ngun: Tnh ton ca cc tc gi.
Kt qu tng t (vi mc khc nhau) i vi cc th trng
xut khu chnh ca Vit Nam nh Hn Quc, Nht Bn, khu vc
ng Euro trong c hai kch bn: c hoc khng c yu t Trung
Quc c th hin trong Bng 6.
Cc kt qu mt ln na li khng nh tc ng tch cc ca
vic gim gi ng Vit Nam n xut khu. Tuy nhin, c mt im
khc bit ng lu l tc ng ny khng ch ph thuc vo nhm
hng ha m con ph thuc vo cc th trng (mc d hai yu t
ny khng hon ton loi tr nhau). Cc th trng Nht Bn v Hn
Quc c ve khng c phn ng ln i vi yu t t gi. Kim ngch
58
xut khu c th c ci thin nh gim gi ng Vit Nam ch
chim khong 50%, trong khi con s ny trong 2 th trng M v
khi ng Euro l khong 3/4. Tuy nhin, khi tnh n yu t Trung
Quc th tc ng rong ca t gi li tr v tng t nh trn cc th
trng khc. iu cho thy yu t Trung Quc t ra mnh hn
trn cc th trng Nht Bn v Hn Quc i vi Vit Nam. C l
c cu th trng v c cu xut khu ca Vit Nam l nhng nhn
t c th l gii hin tng trn.
Bng 6. Tc ng ca t gi n xut khu theo hm phn hi xung:
Cc th trng xut khu chnh, s liu GTIS
Khng c yu t Trung Quc C yu t Trung Quc
Giai on 2
Gim
di 10%
Gim t
0- 2,5%
Tng t
0-2,5%
Tng s
Gim
di 10%
Gim t
0- 2,5%
Tng t
0-2,5%
Tng s
EU15
Gim di 10% 4,0 0,6 0,0 4,6 4,0 1,7 0,0 5,6
Gim t 0- 2,5% 0,0 21,5 0,3 21,9 0,0 26,3 0,1 26,4
Tng t 0-2,5% 0,0 0,1 73,5 73,6 0,0 0,0 68,0 68,0
Tng s 4,0 22,2 73,8 100,0 4,0 27,9 68,1 100,0
Nht Bn
Gim di 10% 5,1 8,0 0,0 13,1 1,9 6,5 0,0 8,4
Gim t 0- 2,5% 0,0 14,1 0,2 14,3 0,0 4,6 0,1 4,7
Tng t 0-2,5% 0,0 23,7 48,8 72,6 0,0 1,1 85,8 87,0
Tng s 5,1 45,8 49,0 100,0 1,9 12,2 85,9 100,0
Hn Quc
Gim di 10% 1,3 22,9 0,0 24,1 1,7 21,5 0,0 23,2
Gim t 0- 2,5% 0,0 6,9 5,0 11,9 0,0 6,8 4,8 11,6
Tng t 0-2,5% 0,0 9,9 54,0 63,9 0,0 0,9 64,2 65,2
Tng s 1,3 39,7 59,0 100,0 1,7 29,2 69,0 100,0
M
Gim di 10% 2,0 7,2 0,0 9,2 1,0 4,4 0,0 5,4
Gim t 0- 2,5% 0,0 13,2 0,1 13,3 0,0 6,0 0,2 6,2
Tng t 0-2,5% 0,0 2,7 74,8 77,5 0,0 16,4 72,0 88,4
Tng s 2,0 23,1 75,0 100,0 1,0 26,8 72,2 100,0
Ngun: Tnh ton ca cc tc gi.
59
KT LUN
Kt qu c lng m hnh VECM cho thy t gi c nh
hng ln n xut khu ca Vit Nam. Tc ng ny ph thuc vo
c hai yu t: sn phm xut khu v th trng xut khu. Vic p
dng m hnh kinh t lng ng mc d con nhiu hn ch song
c th cho php bc tch mt cch tng i cc tc ng ring r
ca cc nhn t nh hng n xut khu nh nhu cu nhp khu t
cc bn hng v t gi ng ni t, c bit nh cc mt hng khai
khong, nhng loi sn phm c coi l c th xut khu lin tc,
khng ph thuc vo t gi. Trn thc t, xut khu cc mt hng
khai khong ny gia tng mnh trong thi gian qua l do s bng n
v nhu cu trn th gii do sc tng trng ca cc nn kinh t mi
ni, nht l Trung Quc. Tuy nhin, vic gia tng lin tc khng
c ngha t gi khng h c tc ng n xut khu ca cc mt hng
ny. Cc kt qu cho thy vic gim gi ng Vit Nam vn c th
c tc ng khuyn khch xut khu ban u, nhng sau tc ng
ny c th gim i do lm gia tng cc yu t u vo do lm pht
v tng gi ca cc u vo nhp khu, tr li vn vay bng ngoi
t. i vi cc mt hng gia cng, t gi cng c th c tc ng, t
nht l thng qua hiu ng o nh t gi. Cng cn phi ni rng
s xut hin ngy cng nhiu, trn quy m ln ca chui sn xut
ton cu ang t ra nhng vn mi cho vic xem xt, nhn nhn
li thng mi quc t, trong c xut khu v tc ng ca cc
yu t khc n thng mi, trong c t gi. Rt nhiu tc ng
truyn thng ca t gi n xut khu c th s b gim bt do hnh
thc t chc sn xut mi ny. C th vic s dng gi tin t s
l cn thit phn nh tc ng ca t gi n hot ng xut khu
trong iu kin ny.
Kt lun t gi c nh hng ln n xut khu ca Vit Nam
c th khng hon ton mi nhng n ti khng nh kh nng s
60
dng cng c t gi trong vic thc y xut khu. Tuy nhin, vic c
nn s dng cng c ny hay khng cn phi tnh ton n cc yu t
v mc tiu khc trong nn kinh t. Tc ng ca vic gim gi ca
ng Vit Nam n vay n nc ngoi, hiu ng lm pht, s nh
hng khng u i vi mt bn l cc ngnh gn vi xut khu,
chui sn xut ton cu v mt bn l cc b phn khc ca nn kinh
t cn c cn nhc.
61
CHNG 4
tHo luN CHNH sCH
T nhng kt qu phn tch trn y c th rt ra mt s bi
hc chnh sch nh sau:
Th nht, vic phn tch din bin ca t gi v cc bin php
iu hnh t gi trong hai nm gn y cho thy, cho n thi im
tin hnh nghin cu ny (qu II/2011) c nhiu bin php iu
chnh t gi tch cc t pha cc nh hoch nh chnh sch trong vic
iu chnh t gi theo gn th trng nhm gim bt p lc trn th
trng ngoi hi do tc ng ca lm pht cao trong nc v nhng
bin ng trn th trng vng trong nc v quc t. Cc ng thi
gim gi VND trong thng 8/2010 khi p lc trn th trng ngoi hi
con cha mnh v gim su gi VND vo thng 2/2011 th hin mt
chnh sch t gi kh linh hot, theo hng th trng hn. Tuy nhin,
NHNN vn con p dng kh nhiu cc bin php hnh chnh trong
iu hnh t gi c bit trong thi gian gn y. Mc sai lch t gi
kh cao trong thi gian di (nh s ni phn sau) cng l nhng
minh chng cho kt lun ny.
Ap lc (gim gi) trn th trng ngoi hi vn con mnh v c
chiu hng tip tc gia tng trong thi gian gn y m bng chng
l mc gi thp trn th trng bn ngoi v st mc trn quy nh.
Xu hng ny c th s tip tc trong thi gian trc mt, k c u
nm 2012 do p lc t lm pht, thm ht cn cn thng mi, tng
62
trng tn dng bng ngoi t v cc biu hin u c. iu oi
hi cc nh hoch ch chnh sch cn tip tc cam kt i theo hng
th trng trong qun l t gi nh nhng nm gn y khi phc
nim tin ca th trng
18
.
Hai l, cch c lng t gi thc hu hiu (real effective
exchange rate REER) cng ch ra rng y l thng tin hu ch c th
gip cc nh nghin cu, hoch nh chnh sch s dng trong vic
phn tch, ra quyt nh, nh gi cc bin php chnh sch lin quan
n t gi, thng mi. T trc ti nay ch c thng tin v REER
theo nm do vy kh c th s dng vo cc hot ng theo di, nh
gi thng xuyn hn. Cc kt qu c lng v REER tnh theo
phng php ca nhm nghin cu trn c s la chn hp l tn sut
(theo qu) v quy m s liu (20 bn hng ln nht ca Vit Nam) th
hin kh tng ng vi nhng din bin v t gi v thng mi ca
nc ta trong thi gian t 2000 n nay. iu ny cho thy cch tnh
ny l kh tin cy v nn c a vo p dng trong thi gian ti,
c bit phc v cho cc hot ng gim st, thm nh v nh
gi ca y ban Kinh t v cc chnh sch c lin quan.
Ba l, cc kt qu c lng t gi cn bng v mc sai lch
vi t gi cn bng cho thy ng thi ca t gi cn bng cng
tng t nh ng thi ca REER. Theo cch c lng ny th
VND b nh gi trn 20% vo thi im gia nm 2010 v cng
tri qua mt thi k bin ng theo hng mt gi ti 20% trc khi
xy ra khng hong kinh t ton cu. C hai c tnh ny: nh gi
cao v bin ng ln u c th nh hng tiu cc n nn kinh t.
ng tin b nh gi cao s nh hng xu n nng lc cnh tranh
18
Din bin kinh t nm 2012 c nhiu im cn c phn tch c th hn. Mt s biu hin mi (lm pht
thp, thng d thng mi, d tr ngoi t tng mnh) i km vi nhng biu hin tng trng chm li,
tng trng tn dng thp v.v C th nhng nhn t ny lm gim tm thi sc p ln t gi (do nhu cu
nhp khu gim st) nhng vn con nhng nguy c tim n do tnh khng bn vng ca cc dong vn ngn
hn, c bit l lin quan n chnh lch li sut. Mt khi c nhng thay i v u t, tiu dng v li sut
do nhng chnh sch mi ca Chnh ph trong nm 2013, p lc ln t gi c th s li gia tng.
63
ca Vit Nam trn th trng quc t trong khi dao ng ln trn
th trng ngoi hi s nh hng n nn kinh t ni chung v gim
st nim tin ca cng chng vo ng Vit Nam. Vn chnh sch
t ra y l: (i) liu mc sai lch t gi nh trn c phi l kt
qu ca mt ch trng iu hnh t gi c ch ch nhm t mt/
nhng mc tiu chnh sch no khng; ni cch khc (ii) liu cc
nh hoch nh chnh sch c cho rng mc sai lch v t gi nh
vy khng v c nhng bin php g lm gim nh mc sai lch,
bin ng ca t gi hoc nhng tc ng bt li ca cc sai lch,
bin ng ln khng; cui cng l (iii) vic sai lch c nh
hng nh th no n tnh trng kinh t v m ni chung? y l
nhng vn chnh sch cn tip tc c tho lun v nghin cu.
Vic c lng v hon thin phng php c lng cng nh c
s thng tin cho vic c lng ny cn tip tc c thc hin v
dn dn th ch ha trong cc hot ng ca cc bn hu quan.
Cui cng, kt qu nghin cu theo phng php v s liu
mi trn din rng cho thy t gi c nh hng ln n xut khu
ca Vit Nam. Tc ng ny ph thuc vo c hai yu t: sn phm
xut khu v th trng xut khu. Kt lun ny c th khng hon
ton mi nhng n ti khng nh kh nng s dng cng c t gi
trong vic thc y xut khu. Nhiu mt hng Vit Nam c li
th xut khu nh dt may, giy da, g, thit b in t c phn
ng tch cc i vi vic gim gi ng Vit Nam. Tuy nhin, vic
nn hay khng nn s dng cng c t gi trong bi cnh hin nay,
hay khng cn phi tnh ton n cc yu t v mc tiu khc trong
nn kinh t. Nhng lo ngi v tc ng bt li ca gim gi ng Vit
Nam n lm pht, kh nng tr n, tnh hnh ti chnh ca cc doanh
nghip lin quan n n nc ngoi l nhng lo ngi chnh ng, cn
c xem xt. Vn ny cn c gii quyt trong mt khun kh
phn tch chnh sch khc.
64
PH LC
Bng A. 1. C ch t gi ca Vit Nam theo thi gian, 1989-2011
Mc thi gian C ch p dng c im ch t gi thc t (de facto)
Trc 1989 C ch nhiu t gi
- Ba t gi chnh thc.
- T gi th trng t do tn ti song song vi cc t gi ca nh nc (cho ti
thi im bo co).
1989-1990
Neo t gi vi bin
c iu chnh
(crawling bands)
- T gi chnh thc c thng nht (OER).
- OER c NHNN iu chnh da trn cc tn hiu lm pht, li sut, cn cn
thanh ton, v t gi th trng t do.
- Cc Ngn hng Thng mi c php thit lp t gi giao dch trong bin
+/-5%.
- Vic s dng ngoi t c kim sot cht ch.
1991-1993
Neo t gi trong
bin (pegged
exchange rate
within horizontal
bands)
- Kim sot vic s dng ngoi t cht ch hn; hn ch mang tin ra khi
bin gii.
- Thnh lp qu d tr ngoi t chnh thc n nh t gi.
- Thnh lp 2 sn giao dch ngoi t TP. HCM v H ni.
- OER c hnh thnh da trn cc t gi u thu ti hai sn; NHNN can thip
mnh vo giao dch trn hai sn.
- T gi ti cc Ngn hng Thng mi dao ng thp hn 0,5% OER cng b.
1994-1996
C ch t gi
neo c nh
(conventional
fixed peg
arrangement)
- Th trng ngoi hi lin ngn hng c hnh thnh thay th cho 2 sn giao
dch t gi; NHNN tip tc can thip mnh vo giao dch trn th trng ny.
- OER c hnh thnh v cng b da trn t gi lin ngn hng.
- T gi ti cc Ngn hng Thng mi dao ng trong bin +/-0,5% OER
cng b. n cui 1996, bin c ni rng t thp hn +/-0,5% ln +/-1%
(11/1996).
- OER c gi n nh mc 11.100VND/USD.
1997-1998
Neo t gi vi bin
c iu chnh
(crawling bands)
- Bin t gi ti cc Ngn hng Thng mi so vi OER c ni rng t
+/-1% ln +/-5% (02/97)v t +/-5% ln +/-10% (13/10/97) v sau c
iu chnh xung khng qu 7% (7/8/98).
- OER c iu chnh ln 11.800VND/USD (16/02/98) v 12.998 VND/USD
(07/08/98).
1999-2000
C ch t gi
neo c nh
(conventional
fixed peg
arrangement)
- OER cng b l t gi lin ngn hng trung bnh ngy lm vic hm trc
(28/2/99)
- Bin t gi ti cc Ngn hng Thng mi gim xung khng qu 0,1%.
- OER c gi nnh mc 14.000VND/USD.
65
2001-2007
C ch neo t
gi c iu chnh
(crawling peg)
- OER c iu chnh dn t mc 14.000VND/USD nm 2001 ln 16.100 VND/
USD nm 2007.
- Bin t gi ti cc Ngn hng Thng mi c iu chnh ln mc
+/-0,25% (t 1/7/02 n 31/12/06) v +/-0,5% nm 2007.
2008-2011
Neo t gi vi bin
c iu chnh
(crawling bands)
- OER c iu chnh dn t mc khong 16.100VND/USD vo u nm
2008 ln 16.500 VND/USD (06/08 n 12/08), ln 17.000 VND/USD (01/09
n 11/09), ln 17.940 VND/USD (12/09 n 01/10), ln 18.544 VND/USD (t
02/10 n 08/2010), ln 18.932 VND/USD (t 08/10 n 02/11), v sau ln
20,693 (t 02/2011).
- Bin t gi ti cc Ngn hng Thng mi c iu chnh nhiu ln ln mc
+/-0,75% (t 23/12/07 n 09/03/08), +/-1% (10/03/08 n 25/06/08),
+/-2% (26/05/08 n 05/11/08), +/-3% (06/11/08 n 23/03/09), +/-5%
(24/03/09 n 25/11/09), v +/-3% (26/11/09 n 11/02/2011), v sau
c thu hep xung +/-1% (t 11/02/2011).
Ngun: Cp nht t Nguyn Th Thu Hng v cng s (2010) La chn chinh sch t gi
trong bi cnh phc hi kinh t, Bo co kinh t Vit Nam thng nin 2010, ch bin
Nguyn c Thnh, Nh xut bn Tri Thc.
66
Bng A. 2. Xut khu ca Vit Nam sang cc th trng chnh, 2005-2010
Nc 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
2010
(*)
tng
t
trng

United States 6,631.2 8,566.7 10,632.8 12,901.1 12,287.8 7,972.6 58,992.1 20.9 20.9
Japan 4,538.6 5,289.9 6,133.6 9,110.4 6,957.5 4,532.9 36,563.0 12.9 33.8
China 2,549.3 2,485.9 3,214.4 4,337.0 4,741.1 3,634.1 20,961.8 7.4 41.2
Australia 2,574.0 3,738.1 3,832.9 4,457.9 2,460.0 1,680.1 18,743.0 6.6 47.8
Singapore 1,813.8 1,650.2 2,141.1 2,382.6 2,269.2 1,000.9 11,257.9 4.0 51.8
Germany 1,719.1 2,173.9 2,946.9 3,523.9 3,187.3 2,166.0 15,717.0 5.6 57.4
United Kingdom 1,348.7 1,497.1 1,688.7 1,846.1 1,589.4 970.4 8,940.4 3.2 60.5
France 1,188.9 1,467.6 1,719.2 1,828.0 1,679.6 1,033.2 8,916.5 3.2 63.7
Malaysia 1,020.9 1,415.9 1,839.5 2,333.2 2,060.6 1,261.0 9,931.0 3.5 67.2
South Korea 694.0 924.9 1,391.6 2,037.1 2,370.0 1,619.6 9,037.1 3.2 70.4
Thailand 890.5 904.4 1,205.5 1,458.9 1,397.4 778.1 6,634.8 2.3 72.8
Netherlands 665.1 836.5 1,050.1 1,231.3 1,173.1 787.6 5,743.7 2.0 74.8
Belgium 746.0 906.5 1,079.8 1,334.7 879.4 492.0 5,438.4 1.9 76.7
Philippines 777.9 672.8 842.7 1,653.4 1,277.3 1,260.9 6,485.1 2.3 79.0
Taiwan 689.6 843.4 1,027.3 1,191.0 906.5 629.9 5,287.7 1.9 80.9
Spain 678.1 863.5 1,141.5 1,584.3 1,275.8 757.4 6,300.5 2.2 83.1
Italy 585.3 764.0 950.1 1,177.9 970.6 633.3 5,081.2 1.8 84.9
Hong Kong 399.1 516.9 651.7 888.4 1,176.3 922.0 4,554.5 1.6 86.5
Indonesia 439.0 846.8 994.2 717.7 653.7 496.1 4,147.6 1.5 88.0
Canada 462.6 576.5 710.3 893.2 930.2 590.7 4,163.5 1.5 89.5
Switzerland 156.6 179.2 215.7 322.6 1,869.7 1,514.4 4,258.2 1.5 91.0
Russia 171.1 348.2 518.7 849.1 660.6 465.7 3,013.4 1.1 92.0
Mexico 274.4 376.9 473.3 614.5 613.5 440.0 2,792.6 1.0 93.0
Turkey 110.0 189.4 313.3 443.7 456.9 405.1 1,918.4 0.7 93.7
Austria(Customs) 185.7 237.4 302.5 384.7 290.9 186.3 1,587.4 0.6 94.3
Sweden 157.1 211.0 257.3 281.0 252.8 152.1 1,311.3 0.5 94.7
India 120.3 159.2 159.4 388.1 427.0 296.8 1,550.7 0.5 95.3
Poland 91.9 174.8 241.1 279.1 184.9 111.2 1,082.9 0.4 95.6
Denmark 124.2 139.8 169.4 207.6 207.0 116.5 964.4 0.3 96.0
Norway 103.7 116.3 141.7 180.5 164.4 108.2 814.7 0.3 96.3
South Africa 75.0 92.7 135.0 169.9 222.0 221.6 916.2 0.3 96.6
Brazil 47.8 75.6 106.8 200.1 219.6 245.5 895.3 0.3 96.9
Czech Republic 37.4 73.5 97.3 108.2 102.6 73.1 492.1 0.2 97.1
Greece 71.3 81.5 107.4 119.1 99.1 53.0 531.5 0.2 97.3
New Zealand 64.7 85.1 91.6 109.6 92.8 59.9 503.7 0.2 97.5
Ukraine 41.3 54.3 82.8 171.3 116.3 59.1 525.1 0.2 97.6
Ireland 73.5 96.4 133.4 132.2 102.1 55.1 592.7 0.2 97.9
Slovakia 11.5 15.5 89.0 136.7 145.7 77.9 476.3 0.2 98.0
Finland 42.2 53.3 68.3 87.7 71.0 49.3 371.9 0.1 98.2
67
Hungary 23.9 30.1 59.9 59.7 80.8 71.5 325.8 0.1 98.3
Chile 38.8 53.6 55.1 80.6 126.2 51.2 405.4 0.1 98.4
Algeria 28.2 45.1 55.1 99.3 94.2 73.1 395.0 0.1 98.6
Romania 28.3 44.9 38.2 66.4 86.5 62.5 326.8 0.1 98.7
Argentina 16.0 44.7 51.7 96.5 76.1 55.3 340.3 0.1 98.8
Cote d Ivoire 91.4 65.0 36.6 73.1 79.4 31.3 376.9 0.1 98.9
Portugal 20.8 26.3 44.1 68.3 68.5 41.1 269.2 0.1 99.0
Bulgaria 17.4 23.7 47.7 83.9 49.7 29.8 252.2 0.1 99.1
Serbia 17.4 28.2 50.5 75.4 68.8 27.6 267.8 0.1 99.2
Croatia 20.9 31.1 47.0 62.7 52.5 27.2 241.3 0.1 99.3
Colombia 12.1 25.6 41.7 65.0 60.8 41.4 246.7 0.1 99.4
Senegal 37.2 37.3 26.0 39.8 70.0 24.7 234.9 0.1 99.5
Morocco 16.0 19.7 39.5 47.1 46.8 25.2 194.2 0.1 99.5
Peru 15.8 19.7 26.6 44.1 42.7 24.3 173.3 0.1 99.6
Venezuela 13.0 21.7 25.9 43.3 52.8 21.3 178.1 0.1 99.7
Sri Lanka 10.6 15.5 20.9 28.1 22.3 21.3 118.7 0.0 99.7
Slovenia 8.9 10.8 12.6 18.8 13.1 11.0 75.2 0.0 99.7
Lithuania 4.9 8.0 13.3 25.4 27.2 8.2 87.1 0.0 99.7
Jordan 4.4 6.4 17.5 28.1 26.0 15.6 98.1 0.0 99.8
Kazakhstan 4.3 5.1 12.0 23.2 22.0 15.1 81.7 0.0 99.8
Cyprus 4.6 7.0 8.8 12.0 11.3 7.0 50.6 0.0 99.8
Kenya 18.1 7.7 14.7 16.5 7.0 64.0 0.0 99.9
Ecuador 6.7 6.0 4.3 8.9 18.2 7.6 51.7 0.0 99.9
Estonia 1.9 4.3 4.9 7.1 5.4 3.3 27.0 0.0 99.9
Costa Rica 1.2 3.3 8.0 14.4 14.0 5.3 46.2 0.0 99.9
Mauritius 3.0 3.4 5.5 9.5 21.3 4.2 46.8 0.0 99.9
Iceland 4.6 5.2 7.1 7.7 4.7 4.0 33.3 0.0 99.9
Latvia 3.4 3.9 5.3 8.4 7.5 4.2 32.6 0.0 99.9
Guatemala 0.7 3.1 2.6 4.9 13.7 5.0 30.0 0.0 99.9
Uruguay 1.2 2.3 4.1 6.2 9.0 7.2 30.1 0.0 100.0
Paraguay 1.1 2.7 2.6 6.5 4.7 3.0 20.7 0.0 100.0
Malta 1.2 7.2 1.4 2.3 2.2 1.2 15.6 0.0 100.0
Nicaragua 2.0 3.3 3.3 2.3 3.7 3.5 18.1 0.0 100.0
El Salvador 1.5 1.9 1.7 3.3 5.8 1.0 15.2 0.0 100.0
Luxembourg 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 2.0 3.1 5.9 0.0 100.0
Bolivia 0.9 1.5 2.5 3.5 3.0 1.6 12.9 0.0 100.0
Panama 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.8 3.3 10.2 0.0 100.0
Azerbaijan 1.0 0.1 0.3 3.3 5.1 0.5 10.4 0.0 100.0
Honduras 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.2 2.4 6.1 0.0 100.0
Ngun: GTIS, 2011.
(*) S liu 7 thng u nm
68
Bng A.3. Danh mc cc nc s dng trong vic tnh NEER and REER
Argentina France Kuwait Singapore
Australia Germany Laos South Africa
Austria Greece Spain
Belgium Holland Malaysia Sweden
Brazil Hong Kong Chinese New Zealand Switzerland
Cambodia Hungary Norway Thailand
Canada India Philippines The Philippines
Czech Indonesia Poland The U.K
China Iraq Portugal The U.S
Chinese Taipei Ireland Republic of Korea Turkey
Denmark Italy Russia Ukraine
Finland Japan Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates
69
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95
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T GI HI OI GIAI ON 2000-2011:
MC SAI LCH V TC NG I VI XUT KHU
Chu trch nhim xut bn:
CHU HO
Bin tp:
NGUYN BCH THY
Sa bn in:
HONG NAM
V ba:
THI DNG
ISBN: 978-604-908-631-1
In 1000 cun, kh 16x24 cm ti Doanh nghip t nhn In H Pht. Giy ng k KHXB
s: 1323-2012/CXB/3-30/TrT. Quyt nh xut bn s: 83/QLK - NXB TrT ca Gim c
NXB Tri thc ngy 26/12/2012. In xong v np lu chiu Qu I nm 2013.