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IU CHNH CC CNG THC TNH IRR V NPV


Tc gi: Thc S Nguyn Trng Sn
tqtuants@yahoo.com Tran quoc Tuan
a ch: 2/1/11 Bnh gi,P. 13, Qun Tn Bnh
Tm Tt

Hin nay, o c hiu qu cc d n ngi ta s dng nhiu phng php nh gi nh thi gian ha
vn, phn tch li nhun ch ph, li nhun k ton v.v. Trong , vic tnh ton hiu qu d n bng
phng php chit khu dng tin thng qua hai ch s chnh l hin gi thun ca dng tin (NPV) v
sut sinh li ni b (IRR) c ging dy rng ri trong cc trng i hc cng nh c a chung
v s dng ph bin trong thc t v tnh hu dng v hin i ca chng.
Tuy nhin, trong qu trnh tnh ton, hai ch s ny l ra nhng nhc im chnh l khi p dng vo
mt s d n chng cho ra kt qu khng chnh xc hoc mu thun trong kt qu hoc chng khng th
o lng c kt qu ca d n. Nhc im ny lm mt i rt nhiu u im ca cng c ny v gy
ra khng t tr ngi cho vic o c d n. V vi tnh cht cng c nh vy, r rng l ta phi kim tra li
kt qu d n sau mi ln o c v nu trong trng hp khng o c hiu qu d n bng cng c
trn th ta li phi tm mt cng c khc o c.
khc phc nhc im ca cng c o c trn, bi vit s i su vo phn tch cc cng thc tnh
NPV v IRR bng l thuyt ti chnh v dng tin tm ra nhng thiu st, sai lm trong cc cng thc
ny, qua cng da trn l thuyt ti chnh v dng tin ra vic chnh sa cc cng thc ny li theo
hng hon thin hn nhm gip cc cng thc ny c th tnh ton hiu qu ca bt kz cc loi d n
vi kt qu chnh xc hn.
Vi vic iu chnh cc cng thc tnh NPV v IRR, cc cng thc tnh mi c p dng vo cc
trng hp c th m cc cng thc c khng th tnh ton c hoc tnh c m cho ra kt qu
mu thun. Bi vit cng th tnh thm vi trng hp chng minh cng thc c khng cho kt
qu chnh xc so vi cc cng thc va iu chnh, bng cch so snh kt qu tnh vi kt qu ca cc
cng thc o hiu qu d n tng ng nh cng thc tnh li nhun k ton, cng thc tnh sut
sinh li ni b bin i MIRR trong excel.
Qua kt qu iu chnh cc cng thc tnh hin gi dng tin (NPV) v sut sinh li ni b (IRR), hai cng
thc ny khc phc c nhng nhc im va nu ra v tr thnh nhng cng c o lng hiu
qu d n hon chnh hn v chnh xc hn, c tm p dng m rng cho vic o c ton b cc d n
khng phn bit chng c cu trc theo dng tin nh th no i na.
Ngy 29 thng 06 nm 2011
Tc gi: Th.S Nguyn trng Sn
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Author: MBA. Nguyn Trng Sn
Address: 2/1/11 Bnh Gi Str, Ward 13, Tn Bnh Distrist, HCM city
SUMARY
Currently, to measure the effectiveness of the project we use several methods as payback period
method, cost- profit analysis, accounting rate of return (ARR) method, etc. In particular, the
calculation of effectiveness by discounted cash flow method through two main indicators of cash
flow: net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR) has been widely taught in the
Universities as well as popular and widely used in practice because of their usefulness and
modernity.

However, in the calculation, the two indicators has revealed that the main drawbacks. When we
apply to a number of projects they produce incorrect results or inconsistencies in the results or we
can not measure results of the project. The downside is losing a lot of advantages of the tool and
cause many problems for the measurement project. Because of the nature of such tools, it is clear
that we must re-examine the project results after each measurement and in case of non
measurable with this tool, we must find another.

To overcome the disadvantages of the measurement tool, this article will analyze NPV and IRR
formulas in the theory of financial cash flow to find flaws or errors in that formula. And then,also
based on financial theory on the premise, suggesting the way to manipulate these formulas so they
can calculate the effectiveness of any cases with better results.

By adjusting that formulas NPV and IRR, that new formulas has been applied in case that the
previous formulas can not be calculated or is calculated to produce results that conflict. To prove
the inaccuracy of previous formulas, the article has also tried to apply the new formulas on
additional cases with the result that is the same by comparing to the accounting rate of return
method and the formula of modified internal rate of return MIRR in Microsoft Excel

After adjusting formulas present value of cash flow (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR), two
formulas have overcome the aforementioned disadvantages and have become the tools by which
the effectiveness of project is evaluated more complete and more accurate and they have a wide
range of application for the measuring of all projects, regardless of their construction of cash
flows.

06 May 29, 2011
Author: MBA. Nguyen Truong Son

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I. NHNG HN CH CA CC CNG THC CHIT KHU DNG TIN

Phng php chit khu dng tin t lu c s dng rng ri tnh ton hiu
qu ca d n thng qua hai ch s chnh l hin gi thun ca dng tin (NPV) v sut
sinh li ni b (IRR) theo cc cng thc tnh nh sau:



Vi:
-

)
-



Cc cng thc ny t ra rt hu dng khi p dng tnh ton hiu qu hu ht cc d
n, tuy nhin trong mt s trng hp cc cng thc ny bc l nhng hn ch nht
nh. C th l khi p dng vo mt s cc d n, cc cng thc ny khng cho ra
c cc gi tr IRR hoc cho ra nhng tr s NPV v IRR khng tin cy.

minh ha cho pht biu ny chng ta hy cng xem xt 02 bi ton sau:
I.1 Bi ton 01 (Cng thc IRR khng cho gi tr IRR):
Cho d n c cc dng tin nh sau:
Nm 0 Nm 1 Nm 2 Nm 3 Nm 4 Nm
5
- 20,000 15,000 5,000 15,000 - 20,000 1,000

IRR c tnh t phng trnh sau:

= 0
4

Gii phng trnh ny s cho kt qu IRR l v nghim.Nh vy cng thc khng tnh
c sut sinh li d n l bao nhiu %.

I.2 Bi ton 02 (Cng thc IRR cho ra nhiu gi tr v NPV cho gi tr mu
thun):

Cho d n vi nhng dng tin nh sau:

Nm 0 Nm 1 Nm 2 Nm 3 Nm 4 Nm 5
- 20,000 45,000 - 25,000 35,000 - 50,000 12,000


tnh IRR ca d n ta p dng cng thc tnh nh sau:



Gii phng trnh trn bng cng c goal seek trn excel ta thy d n ny s c hai
sut sinh li ni b (IRR).
IRR1 = 10,85%
IRR2 = 66,88%
Khi d n c nhiu sut sinh li ni b th rt kh chn sut sinh li no s c s
dng v khi gi tr NPV cng s thay i tht thng khng ng tin cy. Th d,
vi d n trn, nu yu cu sut sinh li nh 11% th NPV = - 156 < 0 cn nu yu
cu sut sinh li ln hn l 67% th NPV = 55> 0. y l mt nghch l khng th
chp nhn. Th d ny cho ta thy cc cng thc tnh IRR v NPV cho ra nhng ch
s NPV v IRR khng chnh xc i vi d n trn.
Qua 02 v d va ri, minh chng cho s khng hon thin ca ca cc cng thc
chit khu dng tin NPV v IRR khi p dng vo nhng d n nh trn.
Vy c nhng sai st no trong cc cng thc chit khu dng tin va nu trn khin
cng c ny b hn ch nh th?
Bi vit ny nhm tm cch pht hin sai st v iu chnh cc cng thc tnh IRR v
NPV ca phng php chit khu dng tin mang n tnh kh thi cng nh v
chnh xc ca cc cng thc ny.
5

II. IU CHNH CC CNG THC CHIT KHU DNG TIN

II. 1 Pht hin sai lm ca cc cng thc tnh IRR, NPV
gii quyt vn ny trc ht ta xem li cch chit khu dng tin ca d n ko
di 5 nm trong bi ton 02 trn.

- Vi dng tin dng (dng tin ra khi d n)







Cc dng tin nh hng chnh n sut sinh li r ca d n. Do vy, ta c th tnh
hin gi ca dng tin ny nh sau:


Trong , l sut sinh li mong mun ca d n v PVi l hin gi ca dng tin ti
nm i.
- Vi dng tin m (dng tin gp vo d n)










X T
CF1
CF3 CF5
X
T
CF0
CF2
CF3
CF4
1 0
3 2
5 4
6


Dng tin m pht sinh ti mt thi im l dng tin gp vo d n ti thi
im , khng ph thuc vo sut sinh li r ca d n. Do vy, chit
khu n v thi im hin ti (nm 0). khi tnh hin gi ca dng tin ny ta
khng th chit khu n vi sut sinh li r ca d n c.

Dng tin ny c sut chit khu ring ca n ph thuc vo tnh cht ca
n. Thng thng, c c dng tin ny vo thi im cn thit, ngi
ta c th d tr dng tin ny vo nm u c d n v c th gi vo ngn
hng vi li sut thng thng khng ri ro, do vy, sut chit khu ca
nhng dng tin u t ny l sut sinh li ph bin ca th trng vi ri ro
thp nht (li sut ngn hng).


Nh vy, hin gi ca nhng dng tin m s c tnh theo cng thc nh sau:


Trong ,

l li sut vay hoc l li sut ngn hng v PVi l hin gi ca dng


tin ti nm i.
Nh vy sai lm trong cc cng thc tnh NPV, IRR l ch s dng mt sut chit
khu duy nht p dng cho tt c cc dng tin d chng l m hay dng hoc
ni rng ra d nhng dng tin ny c tnh cht th no i na th chng ch c 1
sut chit khu duy nht. iu sai lm ny s dn n nhng kt qu tnh ton hn
ch nh trn.
Thay i sut chit khu ca dng tin m chnh l im khc bit chnh yu trong
phng php mi ny tnh ton IRR cng nh NPV nhm hn ch nhng khuyt
im ca phng php tnh chit khu trc y.
C s l lun ti chnh ca vic s dng nhiu sut chit khu trong d n l
mi dng tin u c mt t sut chit khu ring ph hp vi tnh cht ca
chng v vi chit khu ny dng tin c th c chit khu v bt k thi im
no trong d n.

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Th d:
- Dng tin vay phi c sut chit khu bng vi li sut cho vay.
- Dng tin u t nhiu giai on c sut chit khu bng vi li sut huy
ng
- Dng tin dng sinh ra bi d n c sut chit khu bng sut sinh li ca
d n

Vic xc nh chnh xc t sut chit khu ca tng dng tin s phn nh ng
n mc nh hng ca chng trong d n.

Tng qut ta s vit li cng thc tnh IRR v NPV theo cch mi nh sau:


Trong :
-

)
-

)
-
-


- ( )
Nu xem dng tin dng mang sut chit khu l sut sinh li ca d n v dng
tin m mang sut chit khu l li vay ngn hng th cc cng thc trn c th vit
li n gin nh sau:


Trong :
-

)
-

)
8

-
-
-


-
Trong trng hp d n ch c 1 dng tin u t thi gian u ca d n v cc
dng tin pht sinh trong nhng nm sau u l dng tin dng th cng thc
tnh NPV v IRR s l cng thc trc y:


Vi l

dng tin ti thi im i



Nh vy cng thc tnh NPV v IRR trc y l mt trng hp ring ca cc
cng thc mi ny

II. 2 p dng cng thc mi gii quyt cc hn ch ca cng thc tnh trc y:

II. 2.1 Gii quyt trng hp khng tnh c IRR
Tr li bi ton khng c nghim IRR nh sau:

Nm 0 Nm 1 Nm 2 Nm 3 Nm 4 Nm
5
- 20,000 15,000 5,000 15,000 - 20,000 1,000

Khi tnh bng cng thc trc y:



S cho kt qu IRR l v nghim.

9

Khi tnh bng cng thc mi vi sut huy ng ca dng tin m l 14% theo cng
thc sau:



Kt qu thu c IRR = 6, 17%
Nh vy, ta c th kt lun d n ny c sut sinh li ni ti l 6, 17%

II. 2.2 Gii quyt trng hp tnh IRR v NPV khng chnh xc

Tr li v d 02 trn, vi d n c nhng dng tin nh sau:

Nm 0 Nm 1 Nm 2 Nm 3 Nm 4 Nm 5
- 20,000 45,000 - 25,000 35,000 - 50,000 12,000

Vi phng php chit khu dng tin trc y, d n ny c 2 tr s IRR
IRR1 = 10,85%
IRR2 = 66,88%
Dng li sut huy ng ca ngn hng trung bnh l 14% cho dng tin m, ta s
tnh sut sinh li ni b theo phng php mi nh sau:



Nu sut sinh li ca dng tin u t l 14% th IRR ca d n ch c mt gi tr
duy nht l 14.40%
p dng cng thc tnh NPV mi



- Nu r = 14% th NPV ca d n s l NPV = 489 > 0,
10

- Nu r = 15% th NPV s l NPV = - 731 < 0.
- Khi r tng th NPV gim v ngc li iu ny ng vi bn cht ca NPV.
C th kim li cch tnh ny trn th. Hm NPV(r) l hm s ng bin do vy
ch c tn ti mt nghim duy nht m thi.
III. KT LUN

III. 1 u im ca cc cng thc mi:
- Dng cc cng thc mi trn s loi tr c tt c cc trng hp IRR a tr a
n mt kt qu IRR duy nht mi hp l hn.
Chng minh:
Ta c:
Dng tin u t ban u Dng tin u cc nm sau + dng tin dng ca d
n = 0 (1)

Dng tin u t ban u Dng tin u t cc nm sau c gi tr m v c gi tr
xc nh khi ta xc nh c sut chit khu

. Gi s ta t gi tr ny l PVA.
Nh vy phng trnh trn c th vit li nh sau:
Dng tin dng ca d n = PVA (3)

Cng thc ca dng tin dng ca d n c dng sau:



Phng trnh (3) l hm s n iu, c gi tr t + n 0 vi x i t 0 n + ,
do vy phng trnh (2) lun c nghim v ch c 01 nghim IRR duy nht.



th NPV(r)
-30,000
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160%
Sut sinh li (r)
H
i

n

g
i

n
g

(
N
P
V
)
Series1
11

- Cc cng thc tnh NPV, IRR mi c xy dng mang tnh tng qut c th p
dng tnh ton IRR, NPV cho tt c d n m trong d n ny nhng dng tin
c cu trc bt k.
- Sau y l mt v d in hnh gip chng minh tnh chnh xc v hp l ca cng
thc mi
o Cho d n u t nhiu giai on vi cc dng tin nh sau:
Nm 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

-450 800 500 -500 500 -500 -200 500 -1000 800 500

Tnh IRR theo cng thc trc y ta c: IRR = 111.27%
Tnh IRR theo cng thc mi ta c : IRR = 23.4% vi li sut r0 =
14%
Tnh theo MIRR trong excel ta c MIRR = 17% vi li sut u t li
l r = 14%
Tnh theo li nhun k ton: Tin thu c/Tin u t = 3.600/2650 =
36%
Nh vy, IRR tnh theo cng thc mi gn vi li nhun k ton v
MIRR hn v khng c khong cch qu xa nh tnh bng cng thc c.

III. 2 Khuyt im ca cc cng thc mi:
- Phi s dng mi t sut chit khu cho dng tin mi dng tin
- Phng php tnh cc ch s mi s phc tp hn.
Tuy nhin, vi nhng u im v khuyt im trn, cc cng thc ny hon ton c th p
dng tnh ton IRR v NPV ca mi d n vi nhng gi tr o c kh thi v chnh
xc hn.
Ngy 20 thng 06 nm 2011
Tc gi
ThS. NGUYN TRNG SN

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