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Cc cng thc ny t ra rt hu dng khi p dng tnh ton hiu qu hu ht cc d
n, tuy nhin trong mt s trng hp cc cng thc ny bc l nhng hn ch nht
nh. C th l khi p dng vo mt s cc d n, cc cng thc ny khng cho ra
c cc gi tr IRR hoc cho ra nhng tr s NPV v IRR khng tin cy.
minh ha cho pht biu ny chng ta hy cng xem xt 02 bi ton sau:
I.1 Bi ton 01 (Cng thc IRR khng cho gi tr IRR):
Cho d n c cc dng tin nh sau:
Nm 0 Nm 1 Nm 2 Nm 3 Nm 4 Nm
5
- 20,000 15,000 5,000 15,000 - 20,000 1,000
IRR c tnh t phng trnh sau:
= 0
4
Gii phng trnh ny s cho kt qu IRR l v nghim.Nh vy cng thc khng tnh
c sut sinh li d n l bao nhiu %.
I.2 Bi ton 02 (Cng thc IRR cho ra nhiu gi tr v NPV cho gi tr mu
thun):
Cho d n vi nhng dng tin nh sau:
Nm 0 Nm 1 Nm 2 Nm 3 Nm 4 Nm 5
- 20,000 45,000 - 25,000 35,000 - 50,000 12,000
tnh IRR ca d n ta p dng cng thc tnh nh sau:
Gii phng trnh trn bng cng c goal seek trn excel ta thy d n ny s c hai
sut sinh li ni b (IRR).
IRR1 = 10,85%
IRR2 = 66,88%
Khi d n c nhiu sut sinh li ni b th rt kh chn sut sinh li no s c s
dng v khi gi tr NPV cng s thay i tht thng khng ng tin cy. Th d,
vi d n trn, nu yu cu sut sinh li nh 11% th NPV = - 156 < 0 cn nu yu
cu sut sinh li ln hn l 67% th NPV = 55> 0. y l mt nghch l khng th
chp nhn. Th d ny cho ta thy cc cng thc tnh IRR v NPV cho ra nhng ch
s NPV v IRR khng chnh xc i vi d n trn.
Qua 02 v d va ri, minh chng cho s khng hon thin ca ca cc cng thc
chit khu dng tin NPV v IRR khi p dng vo nhng d n nh trn.
Vy c nhng sai st no trong cc cng thc chit khu dng tin va nu trn khin
cng c ny b hn ch nh th?
Bi vit ny nhm tm cch pht hin sai st v iu chnh cc cng thc tnh IRR v
NPV ca phng php chit khu dng tin mang n tnh kh thi cng nh v
chnh xc ca cc cng thc ny.
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II. IU CHNH CC CNG THC CHIT KHU DNG TIN
II. 1 Pht hin sai lm ca cc cng thc tnh IRR, NPV
gii quyt vn ny trc ht ta xem li cch chit khu dng tin ca d n ko
di 5 nm trong bi ton 02 trn.
- Vi dng tin dng (dng tin ra khi d n)
Cc dng tin nh hng chnh n sut sinh li r ca d n. Do vy, ta c th tnh
hin gi ca dng tin ny nh sau:
Trong , l sut sinh li mong mun ca d n v PVi l hin gi ca dng tin ti
nm i.
- Vi dng tin m (dng tin gp vo d n)
X T
CF1
CF3 CF5
X
T
CF0
CF2
CF3
CF4
1 0
3 2
5 4
6
Dng tin m pht sinh ti mt thi im l dng tin gp vo d n ti thi
im , khng ph thuc vo sut sinh li r ca d n. Do vy, chit
khu n v thi im hin ti (nm 0). khi tnh hin gi ca dng tin ny ta
khng th chit khu n vi sut sinh li r ca d n c.
Dng tin ny c sut chit khu ring ca n ph thuc vo tnh cht ca
n. Thng thng, c c dng tin ny vo thi im cn thit, ngi
ta c th d tr dng tin ny vo nm u c d n v c th gi vo ngn
hng vi li sut thng thng khng ri ro, do vy, sut chit khu ca
nhng dng tin u t ny l sut sinh li ph bin ca th trng vi ri ro
thp nht (li sut ngn hng).
Nh vy, hin gi ca nhng dng tin m s c tnh theo cng thc nh sau:
Trong ,
Trong :
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)
-
)
-
-
- ( )
Nu xem dng tin dng mang sut chit khu l sut sinh li ca d n v dng
tin m mang sut chit khu l li vay ngn hng th cc cng thc trn c th vit
li n gin nh sau:
Trong :
-
)
-
)
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-
-
-
-
Trong trng hp d n ch c 1 dng tin u t thi gian u ca d n v cc
dng tin pht sinh trong nhng nm sau u l dng tin dng th cng thc
tnh NPV v IRR s l cng thc trc y:
Vi l
S cho kt qu IRR l v nghim.
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Khi tnh bng cng thc mi vi sut huy ng ca dng tin m l 14% theo cng
thc sau:
Kt qu thu c IRR = 6, 17%
Nh vy, ta c th kt lun d n ny c sut sinh li ni ti l 6, 17%
II. 2.2 Gii quyt trng hp tnh IRR v NPV khng chnh xc
Tr li v d 02 trn, vi d n c nhng dng tin nh sau:
Nm 0 Nm 1 Nm 2 Nm 3 Nm 4 Nm 5
- 20,000 45,000 - 25,000 35,000 - 50,000 12,000
Vi phng php chit khu dng tin trc y, d n ny c 2 tr s IRR
IRR1 = 10,85%
IRR2 = 66,88%
Dng li sut huy ng ca ngn hng trung bnh l 14% cho dng tin m, ta s
tnh sut sinh li ni b theo phng php mi nh sau:
Nu sut sinh li ca dng tin u t l 14% th IRR ca d n ch c mt gi tr
duy nht l 14.40%
p dng cng thc tnh NPV mi
- Nu r = 14% th NPV ca d n s l NPV = 489 > 0,
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- Nu r = 15% th NPV s l NPV = - 731 < 0.
- Khi r tng th NPV gim v ngc li iu ny ng vi bn cht ca NPV.
C th kim li cch tnh ny trn th. Hm NPV(r) l hm s ng bin do vy
ch c tn ti mt nghim duy nht m thi.
III. KT LUN
III. 1 u im ca cc cng thc mi:
- Dng cc cng thc mi trn s loi tr c tt c cc trng hp IRR a tr a
n mt kt qu IRR duy nht mi hp l hn.
Chng minh:
Ta c:
Dng tin u t ban u Dng tin u cc nm sau + dng tin dng ca d
n = 0 (1)
Dng tin u t ban u Dng tin u t cc nm sau c gi tr m v c gi tr
xc nh khi ta xc nh c sut chit khu
. Gi s ta t gi tr ny l PVA.
Nh vy phng trnh trn c th vit li nh sau:
Dng tin dng ca d n = PVA (3)
Cng thc ca dng tin dng ca d n c dng sau:
Phng trnh (3) l hm s n iu, c gi tr t + n 0 vi x i t 0 n + ,
do vy phng trnh (2) lun c nghim v ch c 01 nghim IRR duy nht.
th NPV(r)
-30,000
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160%
Sut sinh li (r)
H
i
n
g
i
n
g
(
N
P
V
)
Series1
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- Cc cng thc tnh NPV, IRR mi c xy dng mang tnh tng qut c th p
dng tnh ton IRR, NPV cho tt c d n m trong d n ny nhng dng tin
c cu trc bt k.
- Sau y l mt v d in hnh gip chng minh tnh chnh xc v hp l ca cng
thc mi
o Cho d n u t nhiu giai on vi cc dng tin nh sau:
Nm 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
-450 800 500 -500 500 -500 -200 500 -1000 800 500
Tnh IRR theo cng thc trc y ta c: IRR = 111.27%
Tnh IRR theo cng thc mi ta c : IRR = 23.4% vi li sut r0 =
14%
Tnh theo MIRR trong excel ta c MIRR = 17% vi li sut u t li
l r = 14%
Tnh theo li nhun k ton: Tin thu c/Tin u t = 3.600/2650 =
36%
Nh vy, IRR tnh theo cng thc mi gn vi li nhun k ton v
MIRR hn v khng c khong cch qu xa nh tnh bng cng thc c.
III. 2 Khuyt im ca cc cng thc mi:
- Phi s dng mi t sut chit khu cho dng tin mi dng tin
- Phng php tnh cc ch s mi s phc tp hn.
Tuy nhin, vi nhng u im v khuyt im trn, cc cng thc ny hon ton c th p
dng tnh ton IRR v NPV ca mi d n vi nhng gi tr o c kh thi v chnh
xc hn.
Ngy 20 thng 06 nm 2011
Tc gi
ThS. NGUYN TRNG SN