Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Kinh t v m
Bi c
M hnh IS-LM

David Spencer/Chau Van Thanh 1
M M H H N NH H I IS S- -L LM M

1. M hnh IS-LM: cung cp c s l thuyt tng cu
a. Gi s: P c nh, Kinh t ng
b. IS - cn bng th trng hng ho: I(r) = S(Y)
c. LM - cn bng th trng tin t: L(i, Y) = M/P

2. ng IS: Cc kt hp (Y, r) th trng hng ho cn bng
Ba cch thit lp IS:
a. Th trng vn vay:
Cn bng th trng hng ho => I = S
ng IS: nhng kt hp Y v r tho I(r) = S(Y)
- M hnh c in: trong di hn (P linh hot), I(r) = S(Y ). Y c nh,
iu kin cn bng cho php xc nh vi r duy nht tho
- Nu P c nh trong ngn hn v Y = Y : S = S(
+
Y ),
I(r) = S(Y) mi gi tr Y s ng vi gi tr cn bng khc nhau ca
r. | Y yu cu + r ti lp cn bng. Do vy, ng IS c dc m


b. Giao im Keynes:
- Th trng hng ho trong ngn hn (Y khng c nh)
E = C + I + G ; E = chi tiu d kin (k hoch)
C = C(Y - T ) ; nh li MPC = [C/(Y-T)]<1
I = I(

r ) = I ; lc ny, gi s r cho trc
G = G

Cn bng: Y = E;
chi tiu thc t (GDP thc) = chi tiu d kin (k hoch)
r
Y
IS
Mi im trn ng IS l
mt kt hp gia Y v r tho
I = S

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Kinh t v m
Bi c
M hnh IS-LM

David Spencer/Chau Van Thanh 2


- Ti Ya: Y > E; tn ti tnh trng tng tn kho ngoi d nh; doanh nghip
gim sn lng (v vy Y+ )

Ti Yb: Y < E; tn ti tnh trng gim tn kho ngoi d nh; doanh nghip
tng sn lng (v vy Y| )

Y
1
l cn bng n nh

- Hnh thnh v di chuyn dc theo IS:
iu g xy ra nu r tng (r
1
n r
2
)?
I + , E dch xung di, + Y

Vi hai im (Y
1
, r
1
) v (Y
2
, r
2
) trn ng IS (Hnh v)
Khi r = r
1
, ch c Y
1
cn bng th trng hng ho
Khi r = r
2
, ch c Y
2
cn bng th trng hng ho

ng IS c dc m
E
Y
45
0
(Y = E)
E = C + I + G
Y
1
Y
a

Y
b

Ti Y
1
Y = E
I
2
I
1

r
2
r
1

I
r E
Y Y
2

Y
1

Y = E
E
1
= C + I
1
+ G
E
2
= C + I
2
+ G
Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Kinh t v m
Bi c
M hnh IS-LM

David Spencer/Chau Van Thanh 3


- Dch chuyn IS:
Cho trc r, cc yu t lm thay i gi tr cn bng Y (th trng hng ho).
V d, G hay T.
Tng G dch IS (ln trn) sang phi; lm tng Y vi r cho trc

- ln dch chuyn IS o lng nh th no?
Ghi ch: G (hay I) c tc ng s nhn vo Y cn bng ng vi s dch
chuyn theo phng ngang ca IS.

Xt trng hp tng G:
tng thu nhp (Y) mt lng bng lng tng G, nhng tip theo s l tng
C mt lng bng MPCG. Ri tng Y v li tng C mt lng
MPC(MPCG)

Cui cng, tng tng Y l Y c xc nh nh sau:
Y = G + MPCG + MPC(MPCG) + =
MPC 1
1
. G

S nhn chi mua hng ho v dch v ca chnh ph:
G
Y
A
A
=
MPC 1
1

IS
Y
r
Y
2

Y
1

r
2

r
1

E
2
=C+I+ G
2

E
1
=C+I+ G
1

r
1
Y
1

Y
2

Y
IS(G
1
)

IS(G
2
)
r E
Y Y
1

Y
2

Y=E
Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Kinh t v m
Bi c
M hnh IS-LM

David Spencer/Chau Van Thanh 4
Tng t, ta c s nhn thu:
T
Y
A
A
=
MPC
MPC

1

c. Phng php i s:
I(r) = S(Y) l phng trnh ng IS

- Gi s chng ta c m hnh tuyn tnh v gii tm Y:
C = a + b(Y - T ) ; b = MPC < 1
I = c d.r
phng trnh IS: c dr = Y [a + b(Y - T )] - G ; gii tm Y:
Y = [
b
c a

+
1
+
b 1
1
G -
b
b
1
T ] (
b
d
1
) r

- Kt lun rt ra t phng trnh trn:
(1) IS c dc m v ph thuc vo bv d (thc cht l ph thuc vo
MPC v nhy ca cu u t theo li sut): [kinh t hc ca d dc:
| r + I + Y]

b cng ln thay i r c tc ng ln hn i vi Y: IS
cng ngang

d cng ln thay i r c tc ng ln hn i vi Y: IS
cng ngang
(2) Thay i G hay T s dch IS mt khong ng vi s nhn thch hp.
[ | G ( + T) s dch IS sang phi; v kt qu l | Y ng vi r cho trc]


Ghi ch: chng ta c th gii v tm r:
r =
d
T b G a +
- (
d
b 1
) Y

3. ng LM
Cc kt hp (Y, r) th trng tin t cn bng
Hai cch thit lp LM:

a. Tnh a thch thanh khon:
Cn bng th trng tin t:
P
M
= L(i, Y)
Gi s P khng i hay l hng s, t = 0, v vy t
e
= 0 v i = r. chng ta c th
vit li iu kin cn bng trong th trng tin t nh sau:
P
M
= L(r, Y)
- Th hin bng hnh v (Gi nh P l hng s; L(r, Y) v ng vi Y cho
trc)
Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Kinh t v m
Bi c
M hnh IS-LM

David Spencer/Chau Van Thanh 5

- Y tng Dch chuyn L sang phi tng r th hin s di chuyn dc
theo ng LM

- Dch chuyn LM
Cho trc Y, cc yu t lm thay i gi tr cn bng r (th trng tin t). V
d, M. | M dch LM xung di (sang phi); kt qu l ng vi Y cho
trc s lm gim r.
Cho trc Y = Y
1
, ch c r
1

tho cn bng trn th trng
tin t.
Do vy, (Y
1
, r
1
) l mt im
nm trn ng LM
r
M/P
P
M

L(Y
1
)
(M/P)
S
r
1

r (M/P)
S

L(Y
2
)

L(Y
1
)

r
1


r
2


r
Y Y
1
Y
2

LM
P
M

M/P
r
2


r
1


LM c
dc dng
Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Kinh t v m
Bi c
M hnh IS-LM

David Spencer/Chau Van Thanh 6

b. Phng php i s:
P
M
= L(r, Y): phng trnh ng LM

- Gi s chng ta c m hnh tuyn tnh v gii tm r:

L(r, Y) = e.Y f.r

phng trnh LM l:
P
M
= e.Y f.r ; gii tm r
r = - (
f
1
)
P
M
+ (
f
e
)Y

- Chng ta rt ra vi kt lun t phng trnh ny:
(1) ng LM c dc dng v ph thuc vo e v f (c th l ph
thuc vo nhy ca cu tin theo thu nhp v nhy ca cu tin
theo li sut): [kinh t hc v dc: | Y | L | r]

e cng ln (L dch ln hn) thay i Y c tc ng ln hn
i vi r: LM dc hn

f cng ln (L ngang hn) thay i Y c tc ng nh hn
i vi r: LM cng ngang

(2) Thay i M/P s dch LM. | (M/P) s dch LM xung di (sang
phi)

4. Cn bng ngn hn: IS = LM
- Cn bng ng thi c hai th trng, hng ho v tin t
P
M
1

P
M
2

M/P Y
r r
r
1


r
2


r
1


r
2


L(Y
1
)
(M/P)
S

LM(
1
M )
LM(
2
M )
Y
1


Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Kinh t v m
Bi c
M hnh IS-LM

David Spencer/Chau Van Thanh 7
- Gii h phng trnh ng thi tm h nghim (Y, r)


r
Y
LM(M)
IS(G,T)
Y
r