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M hnh Solow
Robert Solow l gio s ca khoa kinh t, hc vin cng ngh
Massachsett, nm 1987, ng c tng gii thng Nobel kinh t v nhng
ng gp xut sc trong l thuyt tng trng v nhng nghin cu thc
nghim v qu trnh tng trng.
Nhng ni dung chnh trong m hnh Solow:
1/ Hm sn xut c li tc khng i theo quy m
Hm sn xut c dng:
(1)
th 1
y = f(k)
k
Vn trn lao ng
Vi cung lao ng c nh, vic b tr mt s my mc ban u cho
ngi lao ng lm vic s dn n gia tng sn lng,
. Nhng khi
b tr thm nhiu my mc hn cho nhng ngi lao ng ny th mc tng
sn lng ca tng c my mi s ngy cng nh dn,
. Cho nn
mi mc tng thm vn trn lao ng (k) s gn lin vi mc tng sn lng
trn lao ng nh dn (y).
M hnh Solow
2/ Yu t tit kim
Sn xut to ra thu nhp, thu nhp trn mi lao ng dng tit kim v
tiu dng. Nn ta c,
. Trong , s l t l tit kim t thu nhp;
tit kim trn mi lao ng, s.y v tiu dng trn mi lao ng, c.
S tin tit kim c dng ti tr cho u t, gi s nn kinh t
khng c G, T, NX. Tng thu nhp,
dng trn mi lao ng,
hay
hay
. Vit li di
th 2
y = f(k)
c1
s.f(k)
y1
i1
k
Vn trn lao ng
k1
th 3
y = f(k)
s.f(k)
Vn trn lao ng
M hnh Solow
3. Yu t lao ng
Gi nh rng dn s (v lc lng lao ng) tng trng vi t l l n (n
l ngoi sinh).
l lng vn b khu hao v
l lng vn cn cho lng
lao ng mi tng thm. V vy,
cn c gi l mc u t ha
vn. Lng vn mi tng thm
l phn u t mi
tr i lng vn
b khu hao v lng vn cn cho lng lao ng tng thm,
.
Phng trnh thay i ca vn tr thnh:
Vn trn lao ng
T phng trnh
cho thy rng vic tch ly vn
ph thuc vo t l tit kim, t l tng trng lc lng lao ng v khu
hao. y l phng trnh rt quan trng v th nn tm hiu ngha chnh xc
ca n. Phng trnh ny pht biu rng s thay i vn trn lao ng
c xc nh bi 3 yu t:
i)
c quan h ng bin vi tit kim trn lao ng. Khi tit kim trn
lao ng tng ln, u t trn lao ng cng tng v tr lng vn trn lao
ng k gia tng.
ii)
c quan h nghch bin vi tng trng dn s hay lc lng lao
ng. iu ny c biu th bng gi tr,
. Gia tng lc lng lao ng
c ngha l vn trn lao ng k s gim, lng thay i ca vn trn lao ng
s chnh xc bng vi gi tr nk trong trng hp c s thay i v t l dn
s.
iii) Khu hao lm hao mn tr lng vn. Mi nm, gi tr vn trn lao
ng gim mt lng bng
mn vn,
, do
M hnh Solow
Qu trnh m qua nn kinh t gia tng gi tr vn trn lao ng, tc l
k thay i, c gi l pht trin vn theo chiu su. Ngc li, gi tr tit
kim ch cung cp gi tr vn b khu hao v lng vn cn cho lao ng
mi c gi l pht trin vn theo chiu rng, ngha l k khng thay i.
4. Trng thi dng
ng s.f(k) v
nn
, khi
.
Trng thi dng (ti im A) l im cn bng m lng vn gi
nguyn khng i, bi v lng u t mi to ra vn mi mi nm ch
b p phn vn b khu hao v lng vn cn cho lao ng mi tng
thm. Khi vn khng tng th sn lng trn mt lao ng cng s khng tng.
V vy, trng thi dng, lng vn trn mt lao ng l c nh v sn lng
trn mt lao ng cng l c nh.
u t, vn khu hao, vn lao ng mi
y
th 5
y = f(k)
s.f(k)
Vn trn lao ng
M hnh Solow
T gi nh ca m hnh Solow, hm sn xut c c im sut sinh li
gim dn theo vn,
v
, ch ra rng: (1) Cc nc ngho
c tim nng tng trng kinh t tng i nhanh, (2) t l tng trng c xu
hng chm dn khi thu nhp bnh qun u ngi bt u tng v (3) l h
qu ca hai ngha trn y, thu nhp ca nhng nc ngho c th bt u
hi t vi thu nhp ca cc nc giu theo thi gian. T vic trnh by m
hnh Solow qua th 5, gip ta khng nh r hn nhng iu ny. Nhng
im bn tri im A, c t l vn trn lao ng (k) v thu nhp bnh qun u
ngi (y) thp (ngha l mt nc tng i ngho). Trong nhng tnh
hung ny, yu cu pht trin vn theo chiu rng tng i thp cho
nn
c xu hng ln hn
v c k v y u tng trng. Vi
nhng im bn tri im A, dc tng i cao ca hm sn xut nhng
im c k v y thp ng rng, ng vi s gia tng k, s thay i ca y tng
i ln cho nn thu nhp bnh qun u ngi tng trng tng i nhanh.
Khi nn kinh t tng trng di chuyn cng gn n im A tng trng ca y
chm dn cho n khi dng li ti im A. iu ny c ngha l, i vi
nhng nc c t l vn trn lao ng (k) thu nhp bnh qun u ngi (y)
cao hn (c y v k tng i ln), t l tng trng y thng chm hn hn.
Do , khi cc nc di chuyn dc theo cng mt hm sn xut v c cng
trng thi n nh ca y, l nhng gi nh quan trng, cc nc ngho hn
c tim nng tng trng nhanh hn cc nc giu v cui cng s ui kp
n cng mt mc thu nhp trn u ngi ti im A. cng l d on
quan trng trong m hnh Solow l s hi t thu nhp u ngi trn ton
cu; tuy nhin, nhng kt lun ny li khng ng vi nhng quan st trong
thc t rng, tc tng trng thu nhp bnh qun trn u ngi vn ln
hn tc tng trng dn s (n). Kt lun ny s tr nn ng hn khi chng
ta a thm yu t cng ngh vo m hnh (s c phn tch phn sau).
Mt iu quan trng l trng thi dng tc tng trng sn lng
trn mt lao ng (y) bng khng nhng tc tng trng tng sn lng,
s bng tc tng ca dn s,
.
Trn th 5, ta thy ti
ta c
. Ti im ny:
c gi l tr lng
M hnh Solow
- trng thi dng,
nn
gi nguyn khng i.
y = f(k)
y1*
s1.f(k)
y0*
s0.f(k)
A
k0*
k1*
k
Vn trn lao ng
M hnh Solow
tng trng vi cng t l n, nhng GDP trn u ngi (y) gi nguyn khng
i hay thu nhp trn u ngi khng i. Nn kinh k thot u tng trng
vi t l nhanh hn t l tng trng trng thi n nh n (chnh l t l tng
dn s hay lc lng lao ng hng nm), cho n khi nn kinh t di chuyn
n im B; im ny, t l tng trng di hn tr li bng vi t l tng
dn s hng nm.
Nh vy, t l tit kim cao hn dn n nhiu u t hn, tr lng vn
trn lao ng cao hn v mc thu nhp (hay sn lng) trn lao ng cao
hn. Tit kim cao hn cng dn n s gia tng tm thi ca t l tng
trng kinh t khi trng thi dng di chuyn t A n B. Tuy nhin, s gia
tng t l tit kim khng dn n s gia tng lu di ca t l tng trng
kinh t di hn, n vn mc n.
Trng thi hong kim
Nu t l tit kim cao c th dn n mt trng thi dng tt hn theo
ngha l mc thu nhp trn lao ng cao hn, vy c phi t l tit kim cng
cao cng tt?
C mt nghch l v tiu dng vo tit kim: Tit kim cng nhiu th t
phn ca thu nhp dnh cho tiu dng cng nh. Khi cc h gia nh tiu dng
t i c ngha l h ang th hng t hng ha v dch hn cho bn thn v
cc doanh nghip cng bn c t sn phm hn trong ngn hn. Nh vy,
sn lng trong ngn hn b gim xung. Cc gi tr s khc nhau dn n cc
im dng khc nhau. Lm sao ta bit u l im dng tt nht?
u t, vn khu hao, vn lao ng mi
y
th 7
Vn trn lao ng
V c s nh i gia tiu dng v tit kim, nguyn tc vng (Golden
Rule) pht biu rng: im dng tt nht l im m tiu dng trn lao
M hnh Solow
ng l cao nht. Tiu dng u ngi,
nhp u ngi,
v tit kim u ngi,
nn
. Trong th 7, tiu dng
th 8
y = f(k)
s.f(k)
A
B
Vn trn lao ng
M hnh Solow
hao dn n gim k v y v mt mc thu nhp trn lao ng tri thi dng
thp hn. S khc bit gia tng t l tng dn s v tng t l khu hao l
ch tng t l khu hao khng dn n thay i t l tng trng di hn ca
Y, n vn bng n. Ngc li, gim t l tng trng dn s lm quay ng
sang phi v lm cho nn kinh t t trng thi dng tr hn, dn n
s gia tng ca vn trn lao ng v mc thu nhp trn lao ng. Trong tnh
hung t l tng trng dn s gim xung, lc u nn kinh t tng trng
vi t l nhanh hn t l tng trng trng thi dng mi, n (chnh l t l
tng dn s t l thp hn), cho n khi nn kinh t di chuyn n trng thi
dng mi. im ny, t l tng trng di hn tr li bng vi t l tng dn
s hng nm, n.
Nh vy, gim t l tng trng dn s dn n tr lng vn trn lao
ng cao hn v mc thu nhp (hay sn lng) trn lao ng cao hn. Bn
cnh , khi t l tng trng dn s thp hn, nn kinh t t trng thi dng
tr hn dn n s gia tng tm thi ca t l tng trng kinh t. Tuy nhin,
gim t l gia tng dn s khng dn n s gia tng lu di ca t l tng
trng kinh t di hn, n vn mc n.
6. Yu t cng ngh trong m hnh Solow
M hnh Solow nh m t cho n gi l mt cng c hu hiu phn
tch mi quan h gia tit kim, u t, tng trng dn s, sn lng v tng
trng kinh t. Tuy nhin, mt kt lun lm ta khng yn tm ca m hnh c
bn l mt khi nn kinh t t c mc thu nhp tim nng di hn, tng
trng kinh t ch n thun tng xng vi tng trng dn s ch khng c
c hi cho s gia tng bn vng trong thu nhp bnh qun. Mt m hnh c th
gii thch nh th no v s tng trng thu nhp bnh qun u ngi u n
ca nhiu nc trn th gii t nm 1820 n nay? Cu tr li ca m hnh
Solow l thay i cng ngh. Theo tng ny, l do then cht khin Php,
c, Anh, M v cc nc thu nhp cao khc c th duy tr tng trng thu
nhp bnh qun u ngi trong nhng qung thi gian rt di l v tin b
cng ngh cho php sn lng trn lao ng tip tc tng trng.
Tin b cng ngh c ngha l chng ta c th sn xut ra nhiu sn
lng hn vi cng mt lng vn v lao ng. Tin b cng ngh c th lm
tng nng sut tng hp ca c vn v lao ng (TFP Total Factor
Productivity), hoc tin b cng ngh ch tp trung vo nng cao hiu qu lao
ng hoc tp trung vo nng cao hiu qu vn. Nhng y chng ta ch xt
trng hp cng ngh nng cao hiu qu lao ng.
M hnh Solow
a vo m hnh kh nng nn kinh t c th sn xut nhiu sn
lng hn vi cng gi tr vn v lao ng nh c, ta s iu chnh hm sn
xut ban u i cht v gii thiu mt s bin mi. Ta s gi hiu qu lao
ng l E (efficiency). Gi s mt ngi lao ng c k thut c th lm
c bng 3 ln mt lao ng khng c k thut th thc t sc lao ng ca
anh y s tng ng vi 3L v hm sn xut tr thnh Y = F(K, 3L). C
ngha l vi s lao ng nh c nhng sc lao ng hiu dng tng gp 3
ln. Trng hp tng qut, hm sn xut s c dng:
Theo cch xc lp hm s ny, cng ngh c a vo mt hnh sao
cho n trc tip lm cho yu t lao ng c tt hn (hiu qu hn, nng sut
cao hn), nh th hin qua vic nhn E vi L. Loi tin b cng ngh ny
c gi l nng cao lao ng. Khi cng ngh c ci tin (E tng), hiu qu
v nng sut ca lao ng tng v cng mt gi tr lao ng by gi c th sn
xut c nhiu sn lng hn. Tch s
c gi l gi tr n v lao
ng hiu dng. Bn cnh tch s
o lng c gi tr lao ng v hiu
qu ca lao ng trong qu trnh sn xut, s gia tng tin b cng ngh (E)
hay tng s lng lao ng (L) u lm tng gi tr lao ng hiu dng v do
lm tng tng sn lng (Y). V d, mt vn phng bn bo him c th
tng lc lng lao ng hiu dng thng qua b sung thm ngi lao ng
mi hoc c th b tr cho mi ngi lao ng mt chic my tnh nhanh hn
hay in thoi di ng tt hn. Tuy nhin, E tng khc vi L tng, v s gia
tng tng thu nhp nh cng ngh mi khng cn phi chia s vi nhng
ngi lao ng b sung. Do , thay i cng ngh cho php sn lng (hay
thu nhp) trn mt lao ng tng ln.
Trong m hnh Solow, cng ngh c xem l bin ngoi sinh, ngha l
c xc nh c lp vi tt c cc bin v cc thng s nu trong m hnh.
Solow khng m t chnh xc thay i cng ngh din ra nh th no hay bn
thn qu trnh tng trng c th nh hng n n nh th no.Tuy nhin, bt
k n xut pht t u, cng ngh mi r rng b sung cho kh nng gia tng
sn lng ca cc yu t sn xut. Theo ngha ny, thay i cng ngh c
gi l lc tri cho trong m hnh Solow.
biu th thay i cng ngh trong m hnh Solow, ta cn sa i cc
k hiu. Trong khi trn y l k hiu y v k l sn lng v vn trn mt lao
ng, by gi ta cn biu th cc bin ny theo sn lng v vn trn lao
ng hiu dng. Vic thay i ny n gin l thay v chia Y v K cho L
c y v k, by gi ta chia cho
. Nh vy:
Sn lng trn mt lao ng hiu dng ( ) c nh ngha l:
10
M hnh Solow
Vn trn mt lao ng hiu dng (
) c nh ngha l:
th 9
y = f( )
s.f( )
11
M hnh Solow
Lu , trng thi dng, sn lng trn lao ng hiu dng l khng i
ch khng phi l sn lng trn lao ng.
- Vn trn lao ng hiu dng khng i hay
- Sn lng trn lao ng hiu dng khng i hay
.
.
12
M hnh Solow
Hiu sut bin gim dn theo vn c ngha thc t v chnh xc hn.
Tp trung vo qu trnh di chuyn v trng thi dng.
Nhc im ca m hnh Solow:
Khng phn tch c cc nh hng khc c tc ng n trng thi dng
(n nh kinh t v chnh tr, gio dc v y t tt, chnh ph hiu qu, m ca
thng mi, v tr a l thun li).
M hnh ch bao gm mt khu vc, nn n khng lm r c vai tr ca
s phn b gia vn v lao ng gia cc lnh vc sn xut khc nhau nh (nng
nghip v cng nghip). Mi nn kinh t u sn xut mt tp hp cc hng
ho v dch v khc nhau, tng hng ho v dch v nh vy u s dng nhng
cch kt hp khc nhau ca vn v lao ng (v cc loi cng ngh khc nhau),
c nng sut v tim nng tng trng khc nhau.
M hnh Solow xem cc yu t sau y l c cho trc: T l tit
kim, tng trng cung lao ng, trnh k nng ca lc lng lao ng v t
l thay i cng ngh. Nhng gi nh ny gip n gin ho m hnh, nhng
cng chnh v th m ta khng hiu c nhiu v cc yu t c bn xc nh
nhng thng s ny v chng c th thay i nh th no trong qu trnh pht
trin.
13