Professional Documents
Culture Documents
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TI NGHIN CU KHOA HC
Phn tch tc ng ca cc nhn t kinh t
v m n th trng chng khon VN
Nhm 4
Thnh vin
Khng Trung Kin
53130725
Vn Thin An Bnh
53130111
53130507
53130564
53130958
52131300
53130085
Mc lc
I.
Gii thiu
I.1.
Mc ch nghin cu
I.2.
Mc tiu nghin cu
I.3.
Lch s vn
I.4.
I.5.
D kin ng gp
I.6.
Cu trc bi vit
II.
Gi thuyt cn kim nh
II.2.
Phm vi nghin cu
II.3.
C s l thuyt
II.4.
III.
M hnh hi quy
III.1.
III.2.
c lng m hnh
III.3.
Kim nh Wald
IV.
Kt qu c lng m hnh
V.
VI.
I.
Gii thiu
1.1.
Mc ch nghin cu
Thng qua kim nh trong thc t, a ra c con s tng i chnh xc v s tc ng
qua li gia cc bin kinh t ln th trng chng khon, gip a ra ci nhn chung u tin
khi c nhng thay i trong chnh sch v m nh lm pht, t gi, gi du, sn lng cng
nghip,cc vn xy ra kh thng xuyn Vit Nam
1.2.
Mc tiu nghin cu v d kin ng gp
ra nhng xut cc kin mi, hu ch cho vic xy dng v hon thin cc chnh sch
iu hnh v qun l kinh t v m.
1.3.
1.4.
Phng php nghin cu
- Thu thp, lc s liu vi Excel v Eviews.
- S dng phng php phn tch ng tch hp ca Engle Granger (1987) v Johansen
(1990) nhm xc nh kh nng tn ti cc mi quan h trong di hn gia cc bin.
1.5.
Cu trc bi vit
Bi vit gm 3 phn:
Phng php nghin cu
kim nh bng m hnh
Kt lun v m hnh
xut gii php cho kinh t Vit Nam
Kt lun, hn ch v nh hng cho nghin cu tip theo
II.
Tng
quan
IP
+/-
CPI
TGH
+/-
OP
+/-
2.4.
i vi IP: Tin hnh thu thp thng k sn lng cng nghip cc thng da
T gi hi oi
III.
3.1.
Correlation
VNI
CPI
EX
IP
OP
VNI
1,000000
CPI
0,171615
1,000000
EX
-0,084870
-0,060374
1,000000
IP
0,093322
-0,053646
0,926500
1,000000
OP
0,193453
0,253576
0,736035
0,795698
1,000000
Th nht l gia bin ph thuc v bin gii thich: qua vic tnh ton ta thy h s tng quan
gia OP v VNI l ln nht (bng 0,193453) cho thy OP c tc ng mnh m n VNI
Th hai l gia cc bin gii thich vi nhau: ta thy h s tng quan gia EX v IP ln hn 0,9
( bng 0,9265) nn ta nghi ng 2 bin ny xy ra a cng tuyn.
3.1.2.
Dependent
Variable: EX
Variable
Coefficien
t
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
IP
114,1037
4,266205
26,746
11338,89
258,3294
43,8931
R-squared
0,858402
17957,6
Adjusted Rsquared
0,857202
2148,96
S,E, of regression
812,0627
16,2536
Sum squared
resid
77814611
Schwarz criterion
16,3
Log likelihood
-973,214
Hannan-Quinn criter,
16,2724
F-statistic
7,153,457
Durbin-Watson stat
0,46431
Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
Std, Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
OP
1,943022
1,190903
1,631553
0,1055
IP
12,38835
2,997246
4,133245
0,0001
EX
-0,119177
0,021161
-5,631966
00000
CPI
21,96493
22,33958
0,983229
0,3276
1724,411
248,4928
6,939480
0,0000
R-squared
0,260050
477,1296
Adjusted R-squared
0,234313
213,2257
S,E, of regression
186,5801
13,33637
4003396
Schwarz criterion
13,45252
Log likelihood
-795,1823
Hannan-Quinn criter,
13,38354
F-statistic
10,10397
Durbin-Watson stat
0,426053
Prob(F-statistic)
0,000000
Trong :
R2 hiu chnh = 23,41% c ngha l s thay i ca cc bin v m gii thich c 23,41% s thay
i ca th trng chng khon.
M hnh hi quy c p-value <1% nn c lng hi quy t ngha thng k vi tin cy cao
Ngoi ra, ta c :F-statistic=10,1039< F0,05(4;115)=2,45 cho thy m hnh kim nh l kh hp l
T bng trn ta c m hnh hi quy:
VNIt = 1724,411 + 21,96493CPIt + 12,38835IPt - 0,119177EXt + 1,943022OPt + ut
3.3.
Kim nh Wald
Kim nh Wald kim nh rng buc tuyn tnh cc h s trong m hnh, xem cc h s hi
quy c ngha khng.
Ho: cc h s hi quy ng thi bng 0
T c bng s liu sau:
Wald Test:
Equation: HOIQUY
Test Statistic
Value
df
Probability
F-statistic
10,10397
(4, 115)
0,0000
Chi-square
40,41589
0,0000
Normalized Restriction (= 0)
Value
Std, Err,
C(1)
1,943022
1,190903
C(2)
12,38835
2,997246
C(3)
-0,119177
0,021161
C(4)
21,96493
2,233958
IV.
Kt qu v tho lun
4.1
Kt qu c lng m hnh
VNIt = 1724,411 + 21,96493 CPIt + 12,38835 IPt - 0,119177 EXt + 1,943022 OPt + ut
4.3
4.4
4.5
V.
TTCK phn ng rt mnh trc cc thng tin. Trong thc t, c nhng nhm thng tin trng
khp, c thng tin mang tnh tr nhng cng c nhng thng tin mang tnh d bo. i vi
cc nh hoch nh chnh sch, khi a ra nhng chin lc ngn, trung v di hn th thng
tin t cc chin lc ny s c cc nh u t tip nhn, phn tch v nh gi a vo
d bo gi chng khon trn th trng v xy dng chin lc u t . chnh xc, minh
bch v kp thi ca thng tin s c nhng tc ng ln th trng v hnh vi ca cc nh u
t. Do , vic cng b thng tin cn c thc hin chuyn nghip v c kim sot bi
hnh lang php l trnh tnh trng kinh doanh ni gin, li ch nhm lm bp mo v ri
lon th trng.
VI.
Cc nhn t kinh t v m thc s c nh hng ti th trng chng khon Vit Nam. Qu trnh
nghin cu v mi quan h ny gip nhm ra nhng xut cc kin mi, hu ch cho
vic xy dng v hon thin cc chnh sch iu hnh v qun l kinh t v m. ti ny da
trn nhng nghin cu cc nc trn th gii
6.2 Hn ch ca ti
ti c thc hin trong thi gian ngn v mt s thng tin khng thc s chnh xc nn
khng trnh khi nhng sai st v nhm ln.
6.3 xut cho cc nghin cu tip theo
Trong thi gian ti, chng ti s tin hnh nghin cu s nh hng ca cc yu t khc ngoi cc
yu t v m cp ti th trng chng khon Vit Nam. T a ra nhng chnh sch ton
din gp phn pht trin th trng chng khon Vit Nam
Ph lc
Ti liu tham kho
Bng tng hp s liu
Thi gian
VNI
OP
IP
CPI
EX
01/2004
265,2
31,28
27,70
1,1
15.697
02/2004
261,66
30,86
28,27
15.860
03/2004
249,7
33,63
32,01
0,8
15.641
04/2004
244,02
33,59
29,50
0,5
15.680
05/2004
231,23
37,57
30,76
0,9
15.680
06/2004
233,53
35,18
33,19
0,8
15.680
07/2004
277,09
38,22
31,85
0,5
15.847
08/2004
233,53
42,74
32,20
0,6
15.780
09/2004
225,15
43,20
29,51
0,3
15.780
10/2004
228,27
49,78
30,90
15.759
11/2004
182,83
43,11
31,10
0,2
15.731
12/2004
259,16
39,60
31,33
0,6
15.766
01/2005
234,16
62,99
35,20
1,1
15.805
02/2005
240,48
45,48
29,26
2,5
15.782
03/2005
245,97
53,10
36,30
0,1
15.811
04/2005
246,21
51,88
37,40
0,6
15.921
05/2005
247,33
48,65
38,40
0,5
15.833
06/2005
249,37
54,35
39,10
0,4
15.835
07/2005
269,69
57,52
39,63
0,4
15.871
08/2005
314,22
63,98
40,66
0,4
15.882
09/2005
311,93
62,91
40,80
0,8
15.964
10/2005
298,96
58,54
42,39
0,4
15.901
11/2005
235,05
55,24
42,18
0,4
15.896
12/2005
243,49
56,86
43,10
0,8
15.909
01/2006
443,65
62,99
37,29
1,2
15.928
02/2006
526,6
60,21
37,85
2,1
15.923
03/2006
457,85
62,06
40,91
-0,5
15.921
04/2006
513,51
70,26
43,07
0,2
15.869
05/2006
572,3
69,78
44,13
0,6
15.997
06/2006
729,2
68,56
43,37
0,4
15.984
07/2006
526,51
73,67
44,26
0,4
15.981
08/2006
308,23
73,23
45,09
0,4
16.040
09/2006
560
61,96
46,20
0,3
16.014
10/2006
480,41
57,81
46,60
0,2
16.059
11/2006
565,37
58,76
46,77
0,6
16.102
12/2006
344,36
62,47
49,39
0,5
16.073
01/2007
1110,99
53,68
46,16
1,1
16.054
02/2007
1044,66
57,56
39,87
2,2
15.981
03/2007
905,39
62,05
45,19
-0,2
16.043
04/2007
1090,93
67,49
47,12
0,5
16.062
05/2007
1004,33
67,21
48,68
0,8
16.066
06/2007
933,24
71,05
50,66
0,9
16.127
07/2007
1086,44
76,93
50,82
0,9
16.100
08/2007
1002,79
70,76
51,69
0,6
16.233
09/2007
1046,35
77,17
49,70
0,5
16.196
10/2007
987,53
82,34
49,65
0,7
16.072
11/2007
943,31
92,41
52,11
1,2
16.065
12/2007
954,72
90,93
55,17
2,9
16.019
01/2008
841,9
92,18
52,95
2,4
15.984
02/2008
753,06
94,99
47,92
3,6
15.927
03/2008
583,81
103,64
56,09
15.927
04/2008
531,89
109,07
53,03
2,2
16.111
05/2008
469,74
122,80
55,50
3,9
16.178
06/2008
382,7
132,32
54,95
2,1
16.534
07/2008
449,54
132,72
56,40
1,1
16.796
08/2008
491,49
113,24
58,93
1,6
16.615
09/2008
485,27
97,23
55,72
0,2
16.622
10/2008
383,33
71,58
57,29
-0,2
16.697
11/2008
341,36
52,45
59,92
-0,8
16.926
12/2008
303,39
39,95
63,77
-0,7
17.070
01/2009
308,5
43,44
50,644
0,32
17.484
02/2009
266,91
43,32
58,212
1,17
17.476
03/2009
260,32
46,54
53,219
-0,17
17.555
04/2009
320,21
50,18
55,469
0,35
17.777
05/2009
389,34
57,30
56,566
0,44
17.776
06/2009
470,47
68,61
58,382
0,55
17.791
07/2009
439,77
64,44
59,072
0,52
17.815
08/2009
505,52
72,51
61,05
0,24
17.791
09/2009
559,63
67,65
63,296
0,62
17.832
10/2009
591,49
72,77
63,772
0,37
17.869
11/2009
535,57
76,66
64,411
0,55
18.008
12/2009
475,7
74,46
66,045
1,38
18.493
01/2010
501,76
76,17
62,791
1,36
18.455
02/2010
495,46
73,75
57,46
1,96
18.709
03/2010
513,3
78,83
59,692
0,75
18.961
04/2010
521,25
84,82
62,666
0,14
18.966
05/2010
515,06
75,95
64,741
0,27
19.005
06/2010
507,66
74,76
66,15
0,22
18.997
07/2010
501,31
75,58
68,52
0,06
19.116
08/2010
458,67
77,04
69,51
0,23
19.243
09/2010
454,47
77,84
70,76
1,31
19.466
10/2010
453,32
82,66
72,10
1,05
19.537
11/2010
441,2
85,27
71,343
1,86
19.536
12/2010
474,37
91,45
75,269
1,98
19.443
01/2011
494,72
96,52
73,745
1,74
19.488
02/2011
497,09
103,72
59,649
2,09
20.306
03/2011
466,05
114,64
68,418
2,17
20.798
04/2011
462,28
123,26
71,63
3,32
20.868
05/2011
448,01
114,99
74,04
2,21
20.641
06/2011
439,15
113,83
75,33
1,09
20.565
07/2011
417,7
116,97
75,10
1,17
20.544
08/2011
398,2
110,22
72,50
0,93
20.770
09/2011
447,92
112,83
79,25
0,82
20.790
10/2011
414,14
109,55
75,92
0,36
20.889
11/2011
393,63
110,77
77,12
0,39
21.008
12/2011
368,51
107,87
80,91
0,53
20.986
01/2012
356,81
110,69
71,98
21.034
02/2012
408,5
119,33
72,83
1,37
20.845
03/2012
441,15
125,45
72,87
0,16
20.785
04/2012
461,05
119,75
77,00
0,05
20.805
05/2012
455,78
110,34
79,07
0,18
20.879
06/2012
426,99
95,16
81,35
-0,26
20.920
07/2012
455
102,62
79,68
-0,29
20.853
08/2012
414,56
113,36
75,69
0,63
20.866
09/2012
393,95
112,86
86,94
2,2
20.823
10/2012
393,33
111,71
80,24
0,85
20.821
11/2012
382,21
109,06
83,37
0,47
20.775
12/2012
394,01
109,49
84,88
0,27
20.828
01/2013
454,5
112,96
87,16
1,25
20.900
02/2013
482,62
116,05
65,48
1,32
20.862
03/2013
480,09
108,47
77,09
-0,19
20.945
04/2013
490,24
102,25
81,32
0,02
20.887
05/2013
495,14
102,56
84,21
-0,06
20.988
06/2013
504,2
102,92
86,64
0,05
21.052
07/2013
491,57
107,93
85,26
0,27
21.148
08/2013
494,78
111,28
79,93
0,83
21.103
09/2013
478,39
111,60
92,07
1,06
21.066
10/2013
498,1
109,06
84,98
0,49
21.078
11/2013
502,6
107,79
88,12
0,34
21.085
12/2013
506,94
110,76
90,82
0,51
21.198