Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Lp: K11402B
MSSV: K114020317
H v tn: V Thanh Sang
Li ph ca Ging vin
1. Quy tc cng:
V d 1: Mt ngi mun mua mt chic xe my tay ga hoc xe s. Xe tay ga c 4 loi,
xe s c 6 loi. Hi ngi c bao nhiu cch mua mt chic xe ?
Bi lm:
- Xe tay ga s c 4 s la chn
- Xe s s c 6 s la chn
Nn s cch ngi c th mua mt chic xe l 4 + 6 = 10 cch.
2. Quy tc nhn:
V d 2: Mt bn gi c 6 ci o v c 6 ci qun. Hi bn gi c bao nhiu cch mc
(bit rng mi ln ch mc mt o v mt qun).
Bi lm
Khi hi cch mc th ta phi hon thnh c vic mc o v mc qun.
- Qun c 6 cch chn.
- o c 6 cch chn.
Vy s cch mc l 6 x 6 = 36 cch.
V d 3: Mt bn gi mun din i chi Tt. Bn c 6 i giy, 5 ci nn, 5 thi
son mi Lipice, 10 ci o, 8 ci qun. Hi bn y c bao nhiu cch din i chi Tt ?
Bi lm
Cng vic din i chi tt c hon thnh khi chn xong tt c: giy, nn, thi son,
o, qun.
Giy:
6 cch
Nn:
5 cch
Thi son:
5 cch
o:
10 cch
Qun:
8 cch
Vy s cch ngi ny din i chi tt l: 6.5.5.10.8 = 12.000 cch.
V d 4: Ngi ta pht hnh v s, trn mi t v s gm 6 ch s c chn t cc ch
s 0, ., 9. Hi c th c bao nhiu t v s c pht hnh?
1
Bi lm
Gi abcdef l s trn t v s.
Ta c:
- a c 10 cch chn.
- b c 10 cch chn (v trn t v s ta c th chn li s chn trc)
- c c 10 cch chn.
- d c 10 cch chn.
- e c 10 cch chn.
- f c 10 cch chn.
Vy c 106 t v s c pht hnh theo yu cu ca bi.
3. T hp, chnh hp, hon v:
V d 5: Mt bn c 4 hc sinh. Hi c bao nhiu cch xp ch?
Bi lm
S cch xp ch ngi cho 04 hc sinh l hon v ca 4 phn t P4 4! 24 cch xp
ch
V d 6: C th lp c bao nhiu s t nhin gm 3 ch s khc nhau t cc s
1, 2 , , 6 ?
Bi lm
Ta c 6 s, lp nn s t nhin gm 03 ch s, vy c ngha rng ta s chn ngu
nhin 3 trong 6 s cho lp nn s t nhin, v th t cc s ny l quan trng, v
mi th t khc nhau s to thnh s khc nhau. Vy, s cch lp cc s theo yu cu
bi l: A36 120 (cch)
V d 7: C th lp c bao nhiu s t nhin gm 3 ch s khc nhau t cc s
0, 1, 2, , 6?
Bi lm
Gi s cn tm l ABC . Xt v tr A do s 0 khng th ng u nn v tr ny
c 6 s la chn, lp lun tng t v d 6, BC c to ra t 06 s cn li v c A62 cch.
Vy, chng ta c th lp : 6 A62 180 (s)
V d 8: Mt hp ng 9 th c nh s t 1, 2, 3 ,., 9. Hi c bao nhiu cch chn
3 th t 9 th (khng phn bit th t cc th).
Bi lm
Chn 3 th ngu nhin trong 9 th v th t cc th khng quan trng nn s cch
chn l: C39 84 (cch)
2
Lp i ma gm 5 nam + 5 n
+
5
Ta p dng quy tc nhn tm s cch lp i ma: C520 C30
cch.
b. C bao nhiu cch thc hin nu ai tham gia ca th khng tham gia ma?
- S cch lp ra tam ca n : p n cu a.
- S cch lp ra i ma gm 5 nam v 5 n: Do ai tham gia ca th khng tham
gia ma nn s n cn li l 30 3 27 n. Vy s cch lp nn i ma s l:
Trng hp 1
2
2 trng
Trng hp 2
1 + 1 trng
1 + 1 trng
Trng hp 1:
-
Trng hp 2:
- Ly t hp I; 1 bi + 1 bi trng c C19 C11 cch.
-
Trng hp 1
2
1 + 1 trng
Trng hp 2
1 + 1 trng
2
Lp lun tng t cu b, ta c:
p dng quy tc cng ta c, s cch chn tha YCBT l: 864 135 999 cch.
Bi 2. Mt lp c 50 sinh vin (trong c 30 nam v 20 n). Chn ngu nhin 4 sinh
vin.
a. Hi c bao nhiu cch chn c 4 sinh vin ?
b. Hi c bao nhiu cch chn c 2 sinh vin nam v 2 sinh vin n ?
c. Hi c bao nhiu cch chn c t nht 1 sinh vin nam ?
4
b. Chn 2 SV Nam v 2 SV n
-
2
Giai on 1: chn 2 SV nam, c C30
435 cch chn.
4
C50
230.300 cch.
Vy s cch chn c t nht 1 SV nam l: 230.300 4.545 225.455 cch.
Trng hp 1
Trng hp 2
Nam
1
2
N
3
2
1
3
Trng hp 1: s cch chn l: C30 C20 34.200 cch.
2
2
Trng hp 2: s cch chn l: C30
C20
82.650 cch.
a. ng cnh nhau.
b. Khng ng cnh nhau.
c. ng cch nhau 1 ngi.
d. ng cch nhau 5 ngi.
Bi lm
a. ng cnh nhau
- A v B c th hon v cho nhau c 2! 2 cch sp xp.
- A v B ghp li xem nh l mt ngi sp chung vi 8 ngi cn li thnh
hng 9 ngi s c 9! 362.880 cch sp xp.
- p dng qui tc nhn ta c s cch sp xp l: 2 362.880 725.760 cch
sp xp
b.
c nhau.
Khi 8 ngi ln 8 toa, 8 toa ny phn bit v hon ton khc nhau, nn s cch sp
a.
8
s l: A10
1.814.400 cch.
c.
A, B cng toa u, c 01 cch chn.
n 06 ngi cn li, mi ngi c th c quyn chn 10 toa, vy c
10 10 10 10 10 10 106 cch sp na.
p dng qui tc nhn ta c: 1106 106 cch sp xp.
d.
Tng t cu c, ch khc ch, A v B lc ny s c 10 cch chn. Nn p s s
l: 10 106 107 cch chn.
e.
r
A v B ln cng 1 toa nn c 10 cch chn. Do trong toa v khng c ngi
no na nn 6 ngi cn li mi ngi ch cn c 09 cch chn, nn s cch chn
ca 06 ngi ny l: 9 6 cch sp xp.
p dng qui tc nhn, ta c s cch sp xp l: 10 96 cch sp xp.
p th nht c 8 chai thuc (trong c 3 chai km ph m cht). p th hai c 5
chai thuc (trong c 2 chai km ph m cht). y ngu nhin t mi hp ra mt chai.
i c bao nhiu cch:
a) y c 2 chai thuc.
b) y c 2 chai thuc tt.
c) y c 1 chai tt v 1 chai km ph m cht.
Bi lm
a. S
c.
C duy nht 01 trng hp:
-
- Xy ra cc trng hp sau:
Trng hp 1
Hp 1
Tt
Hp 2
Xu
rng hp 1:
Trng hp 2
Xu
Tt
rng hp 2:
S cch ly l: C13 C13 3 3 9 cch.
p dng qui tc cng c: 10 9 19 cch ly.
a. T
Tng t cu b,
- 7 nam c 7! cch sp xp
8
Hai ch
d.
xp.
-
C phiu II
C phiu III
10
11
Vy xc sut cn tm l: P(A)
C83
7
3
C10 15
C82C12 7
3
C10
15
3
C16
C14 448
4
C20
969
b. Gi B l bin c l c ch c 1 ng cn hn s dng
- S trng hp thun li cho A l: C116 C34
-
Vy xc sut cn tm l: P(B)
C116C34
64
4
C20
4845
a) Tt c cng ln toa II
b) Tt c cng ln mt toa
c) Toa I c 4 ngi, toa II c 5 ngi, c n li ln toa III
d) Toa I c 4 ngi.
Bi lm
a. Gi A l bin c tt c cng ln toa II
- S trng hp thun li cho A l 1.
-
Vy xc sut cn tm l: P(A)
1
312
Vy xc sut cn tm l: P(A)
3
312
c. Gi C l bin c T
4
- S cch chn ngi ln toa 1 l: C12 cch (v chn ngu nhin 4 trong 12
khng phn bit th t sp ln toa 1 m thi).
-
Vy xc sut cn tm l: P(C)
4
C12
C85C33 34.650
312
312
d. Gi D l bin c
Vy xc sut cn tm l: P(D)
4
C12
28
312
d. Ngi
ra cng tng.
Bi lm
a. Gi A l bin c tt c cng ln t ng 5
- S trng hp thun li cho A l 1.
-
Vy xc sut cn tm l: P(A)
1
95
b. Gi B l bin c tt c cng ln mt t ng
- S trng hp thun li cho B l 9.
-
Vy xc sut cn tm l: P(B)
9
1
4
5
9
9
c. Gi C l bin c
r
Thang mays i t tng 2 n tng 10, c phn bit th t. Khch ra cc tng s phn
bit vi nhau.
- S trng hp thun li cho C l A 59 .
-
A59 15.120
5
9
95
d. Gi D l bin c
r
- S trng hp thun li cho D l 9.93 (v A v B ra cng tng c 9 trng hp
thun li, 3 ngi cn li mi ngi li c 9 quyn la chn nn c 93 cch,
vy s trng hp ca A l 9.93).
-
Vy xc sut cn tm l: P(C)
9.93 1
95
9
Nu ch ca hng c gp may th ngi mua kim tra 4 chic phi l tt trong 154
3=12 chic tt ca ca hng. S trng hp thun li xy ra l: C12
Vy xc sut ch ca hng gp may bn c l hng l: (A)
4
C12
33
4
C15 91
c)
15
hn ngu nhin 4
Bi lm
a. Gi A l bin c ch
c chn ra
2
2
S trng hp thun li cho A l : C30 C 20 cch.
4
S trng hp ng kh nng l: C50 cch (v chn ngu nhin 4 trong 50 SV
b. Gi B l bin c l
2
2
C30
C20
1653
0.359
4
C50
4606
c 4 SV n.
4
S trng hp thun li cho B l: C 20 cch.
4
S trng hp ng kh nng l: C50 cch (v chn ngu nhin 4 trong 50 SV
C420
969
4
C50 46060
Vy P(B)
P(C) 1 P(B) 1
c. Gi D l bin c l
Nam
N
S trng hp
thun li
-
969
0.979
46060
Trng hp 1
1
3
Trng hp 2
2
2
C130 C320
2
2
C30
C 20
4
S trng hp ng kh nng l: C50 cch (v chn ngu nhin 4 trong 50 SV
0.5074
4
C50
Vy P(D)
4
S trng hp thun li cho E l: C 20
4
S trng hp ng kh nng l: C50 cch (v chn ngu nhin 4 trong 50 SV
d.
16
Xc sut cn tm l: P(E)
C420
4 0.021
C50
hn c 2 bi v 2 bi trng
c.
hn c 3 bi v 1 bi trng.
Bi lm
a. Gi A l bin c ch
Hp 1
Hp 2
Trng hp 1:
- Ly t hp I hai bi c : C92 cch
Trng hp 2
1 + 1 trng
1 + 1 trng
Trng hp 2:
- Ly t hp I; 1 bi + 1 bi trng c C19 C11 cch.
-
432
Vy xc sut cn tm l: P( A ) 2025 0.213
b. Cu hi cu b l ch
v 2 bi trng, cng chnh l 2 trng hp
c lit k ra cu a, Vy xc sut cn tm vn l 0.213.
c. Ch
+ 1 trng
Trng hp 1
Trng hp 2
Hp 1
2
1 + 1 trng
Hp 2
1 + 1 trng
2
-
Lp lun tng t cu a, ta c:
17
p dng quy tc cng ta c, s cch chn tha YCBT l: 864 135 999 cch.
-
2
S trng hp ng kh nng l: C10
C102 2025
999
r .
Vy xc sut cn tm l: P(A)
C32
3
2
C20 190
b. Gi B l bin c
r i.
Vy xc sut cn tm l: P(A)
C172 136
0.716
C220 190
2
S trng hp thun li cho A l: C50
trng hp.
2
S trng hp ng kh nng l: C90
(v chn ngu nhin 2 trong 90
ngi).
-
Vy xc sut cn tm l: P(A)
2
C50
245
2
0.306
C90 801
18
b. Gi B l bin c
-
2
S trng hp ng kh nng l: C90
(v chn ngu nhin 2 trong 90
ngi).
-
Vy xc sut cn tm l: P(B)
0.499
2
C90
801
a. Gi A l bin c
3
S trng hp ng kh nng l: C12
(v chn ngu nhin 2 trong 90 ngi).
C39 21
3
0.382
C12 55
Vy xc sut cn tm l: P(B)
b. Gi B l bin c
21 34
0.618
55 55
Trong 24 lon nc ngt c mt (01) lon b nhi m khu n. y ngu nhin 3 lon
kim tra.
a.
b. Tnh xc sut lon b nhi m khu n c trong khi chn kim tra.
Bi lm
c ngt ngu nhin, khng phn bit th t trong 24 lon nc
a. Ch
r .
ngi).
-
Vy xc sut cn tm l: P(B)
2
C11 C23
1
0.125
C324
8
19
n
V d 29: t l hng cha 15 sn ph m gm 10 sn ph m tt v 5 sn ph m xu.
hn ngu nhin t l hng ra 4 sn ph m. Tnh xc sut trong 4 sn ph m chn ra c:
a. S sn ph m tt khng t hn s sn ph m xu.
b. t nht 1 sn ph m xu.
a. Gi A l bin c
cc trng hp:
Bi lm
c ch r
Trng hp 1
Trng hp 2
3 tt
2 tt
Trng hp 1: Gi A1 l bin c
1 xu
2 xu
rng hp 1
3
S trng hp thun li l: C10
C15
Vy : P(A1)
C103 C15 40
C154
91
C102 C52 30
C154
91
Vy : P(A1)
40 30 10
91 91 13
C4
2
104
C15 13
2 11
13 13
c hai chnh ph m
20
6 5 1
10 9 3
b. Gi B l bin c l c mt chnh ph m.
Gi Bi (i=1,2) l bin c th i ly c chnh ph m. B1 v B2 xung khc vi nhau
nn:
P(A) P(A1) P(A 2)
6 4 4 6 8
10 9 10 9 15
t lp hc c 100 sinh vin, trong c 60 sinh vin gii Ton, 70 sinh vin
gii nh vn v 40 sinh vin gii c hai mn Ton v nh vn. hn ngu nhin mt
sinh vin ca lp. Tm xc sut chn c sinh vin gii t nht mt trong hai mn
Ton hoc nh vn.
Bi lm
Gi A l bin c sinh vin gii t nht mt trong hai mn Ton hoc nh vn.
A1 l bin c sinh vin gii mn Ton, A2 l sinh vin gii mn Anh.
Do hai bin c trn khng xung khc, c phn giao nn:
( ) ( 1) ( 2) ( 1. 2)
60 70 40
0,9
100 100 100
6 6 1 78
10 10 3 90
BI TP
Ta c:
b. Gi D l bin c c khng qu m
Ta li c:
b.
c.
a. Gi A l bin c
e thng t nht mt chng.
- Do cc bin c trn khng xung khc nn :
Theo yu cu bi, ta c: 1 2 12
Ta li c: A B A1.A2 T :
C 1 2 1 2 (C) (1 2 ) 1 (1 2 ) 1 ((1 ) ( 2 ) (1 2 ))
1 (0, 7 0, 6 0,5) 0, 2
i cp cu.
c. Gi C l bin c
i c n cp cu.
Vy:
(C ) ( 1 2 3 ) ( 1 2 3 ) ( 1 2 3 )
( 1 )( 2 )( 3 ) ( 1 )( 2 )( 3 ) ( 1 )( 2 )( 3 )
0, 7.0, 4.0,35 0,3.0, 6.0,35 0,3.0, 4.0, 65 0, 239
1 2 1 2
( ) P( 1 2 ) ( 1 2 ) 1 ( 1 2 ) 1 ( (1 ) ( 2 ) (1 2 ))
1 (0, 09 0,12 0, 07) 0,86
Gi s xc sut bn s nhn im
0.5. Tm xc sut bn nhn im ?
Bi lm
-
Bi lm
-
(S) ( ) (B) ( B)
0, 2 0,3 0,15 0,35
: ho (X) 0.55 v ( ) 0.35. Gi s xc sut 2 bin c xy ra ng
thi l 0.20. Tnh xc sut c t nht mt bin c xy ra. Gi s 2 bin c X v Y l
xung khc. Tnh xc sut chng xy ra ng thi
Bi lm
a. Gi A l bin c c t nht mt bin c X, Y xy ra .
Do cc bin c trn khng xung khc nn:
24
( ) ( X ) (Y ) ( XY )
0,55 0,35 0, 2 0, 7
b. Gi s X,Y l xung khc. Gi B l bin c X, Y x r
ng thi.
c gi l g?
t m r
( ) ( 1 ) ( 2 ) ( 1 2 )
0,5 0, 4 0,35 0,55
b. S % c gi l ph n xc sut ca bin c giao ca bin c du khch gh
thm khu vc ni ellow stone v phn bin c du khch gh thm Tetons.
c. Bin c xung khc khng c v bin c gh thm ni Yellowstone v bin c du
khch gh thm Tetons ph thuc ln nhau c xc sut du khch gh thm 2
ni.
khch
( ) ( 1 ) ( 2 ) ( 1 2 )
0,8 0, 6 0,5 0,9
b. Gi B l bin c
. T
cu 4, c:
1 2 1 2
() ( 1 2 ) 1 ( 1 2 ) 1 ( ( 1 ) ( 2 ) (1 2 ))
1 0,9 0,1
( ) ( 1 ) ( 2 ) ( 1 2 )
0, 6 0, 4 0,3 0, 7
n c c lp:
V d 34: t ngi mua 3 loi c phiu khc nhau vi xc sut trong phin giao dch
ti cc loi c phiu ny ln gi tng ng l 1 3, 3 4 v 1 10. Tm xc sut trong
phin giao dch ti:
a. Tt c cc c phiu u ln gi.
b. Khng c c phiu no ln gi.
c. h c 1 c phiu ln gi.
d. h c 2 c phiu ln gi.
e. t nht 1 c phiu ln gi.
f. t nht 2 c phiu ln gi.
Bi lm
Gi i (i 1,3) l bin c c phiu th i ln gi.
a. Gi A l bin c tt c cc c phi
u ln gi. Vy ta c:
26
1 2 3
1 3 1
0, 025
3 4 10
21 9
0,15
3 4 10
c. Gi C l bin c ch c mt c phiu ln gi
Theo , ta c: C 1 2 3 12 3 1 2 3
Suy ra:
(C) ( 1 2 3 ) ( 1 2 3 ) ( 1 2 3 )
( 1 )( 2 )( 3 ) ( 1 )( 2 )( 3 ) ( 1 )( 2 )( 3 )
11 9 23 9 21 1
0,542
3 4 10 3 4 10 3 4 10
e.
f.
13 9 11 1 23 1
0, 283
3 4 10 3 4 10 3 4 10
2 l hng, mi l cha 15 sn ph m, trong l I gm 10 sn ph m tt, 5
sn ph m xu; l 2 gm 8 sn ph m tt v 7 sn ph m xu. hn ngu nhin t mi l 2
sn ph m. Tnh xc sut trong 4 sn ph m chn ra c 2 sn ph m tt v 2 sn ph m
xu.
Bi lm
Gi A l bin c 2 sn ph m tt v 2 sn ph m xu.
Cc trng hp c m t trong bng sau:
L I
L II
S trng hp
thun li
Do ()
Trng hp 1
2 tt
2 xu
Trng hp 2
2 xu
2 tt
C102 C72
C52 C82
Trng hp 3
1 tt + 1 xu
1 tt + 1 xu
2
C10
C72 C52 C82 C110 C15 C17 C18
0,365
2
2
C15
C15
2
S trng hp ng kh nng l: C15
(v chn ngu nhin 2 trong 20 bn
chi).
-
Vy xc sut cn tm l: P(A)
C72 136
2
0.2
C15 190
Gi A l bin c b ca bin c A.
5
Xc sut xut hin t nht mt ln mt 6 chm l: ( ) 1 P(A) 1
6
28
(*)
5
5
1 0.5 0.5
6
6
Do 0
5
1 v 0.5 > 0, nn tp nghim ca BPT trn l: log 5 0.5; ; vy cn phi
6
6
Gi s ( ) 0.4 v (
) 0.3. Tm xc sut kt hp (
).
Bi lm
Ta c: (.) () ( / A) 0.4 0.3 0.12
Gi s (X1) 0.75 v (
2/X1)
0.4. Tm (X1.Y2).
Bi lm
Ta c: (.) () ( / A) 0.75 0.4 0.3
b. Gi B l bin c ch trng th u mt d n.
1 2 12
29
t l hng c 60 chnh ph m v 40
ln lt 2 sn ph m. Tm xc sut ly c:
a. Ly c 2 chnh ph m.
b. Ly c 1 chnh ph m.
c. Ly c t nht 1 chnh ph m.
Bi lm
c 2 chnh ph m.
b. Gi B l bin c l
c 1 chnh ph m.
1 2 12
t sinh vin thi hai mn, lch s v ton hc. Xc sut anh ta qua mn lch s
l 0.6, v xc sut qua mn ton l 0.7. Xc sut qua c 2 mn l 0.5.
a. Tnh xc sut anh ta qua t nht 1 mn.
b. Tnh xc sut anh ta qua c 2 mn.
Bi lm
-
Do cc bin c trn khng xung khc nn p dng cng thc cng tng qut, c:
( ) ( 1 ) ( 2 ) ( 1 2 ) 0, 6 0, 7 0,5 0,8
BI TP
: rmco, mt cng ty sn xut h thng n giao thng, sau nhng ln th
nghim v tui th ca bng n nhn thy rng 95 ca cc h thng mi ko di 3
nm trc khi thay i tn hiu khng chnh xc.
30
t nghi
i hc.
c. Tnh xc sut t nht mt trong nhng chuyn bay c chn khng n trong
v ng 15 so vi lch trnh ?
Bi lm
a. Gi A l bin c 4 chuy
c ch n trong vng 15 pht.
-
1. 2 .3 . 4
-
4
Do : ( ) ( 1).( 2).( 3).( 4) 0,9 0, 6561
12 34
-
4
4
Do : () (1 )(2 )(3 )(4 ) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 10
Cng ty quc t Kiddie Carts c 100 nhn vin. Trong 57 ngi l cng
nhan sn xut, 40 ngi l gim st vin, 2 ngi l th k, mt ngi l ch tch. Gi s
chn 01 nhn vin:
a. Tnh xc sut chn 01 nhn vin l cng nhn sn xut.
b. Tnh xc sut chn 01 nhn vin c chn ra l 1 cng nhn sn xut hoc mt gim
st vin.
c. Trong cu b, cc bin c ny c xung khc nhau khng ?
d. Tnh xc sut nhn vin c chn ra khgn phi l cng nhn sn xut, khng
phi l gim st vin.
Bi lm
a. Gi A l bn c chn mt nhn vin l cng nhn sn xut.
-
C157
- T , tnh c: ( ) 1 0.57
C100
32
b. Gi B l bin c nhn vin chn ra l cng nhn sn xut hoc gim st vin.
-
- T , tnh c: (B)
C157 C140
0.97
C1100
(C)
3
0.03
C1100
Gi i (i 1, 4) l bin c tn la th i n ch.
Cc bin c 1, 2, 3, 4 l hngc lp do s n ch ca tn la ny
khng nh hng tn la khc.
Khi ta c: 1 2 3 4
b. Gi B l bin c khng c tn l
-
Ta c.
12 34
-
V mi tn la n ch l c lp vi nhau nn:
04 ngi c xem xt cho v tr trng i din cho cng ty. a ngi
trong s c tui trn 60, hai trong s l ph n, v ch duy nht mt ph n c tui
trn 60.
a. Tnh xc sut chn c 01 ngi ph n v trn 60 tui.
b. Nu gi s ngi c chn khng phi l ph n, tnh xc sut ngi c
tui i di 60.
c. Nu chn c 1 ngi trn 60 tui, tnh xc sut ngi c chn l ph
n.
Bi lm
c vin bi trng
( )
b. Gi B l bin c l
l n 1.
6 7
7
13 12 26
c vin bi trng
l n 2 khi l
c vin bi trng.
5
12
V d 46:
a. Gi A l bin c l
Khi
Do : ()
b.
112 31
0,143
1000
y ph
t, gi B l bin c
( ) 0, 031
0, 217
( )
0,143
V d 47:
Gi A l bin c s khch hng c loi bo ny.
Gi B l bin c s khch hng c v nh.
a. Gi C l bin c khch hng xem v nh qung co.
34
c.
12 12
Suy ra:
() (12 ) (12 ) (1 )(2 / 1 ) (1 )(2 / 1) 0,8.0,6 0,2.0,3 0,54
V d 49:
a. Gi A l bin c s i hon tt kho hc.
Gi B l bin c s ngi thnh ngi bn hng c hiu qu m hon thnh kho hc.
Gi C l bin c thc tp m khng hon tt kha hc.
Gi D l bin c cn tm
Do cc bin c trn ph thuc nn, ta c:
(D) ( ) () ( ) (C) 0,85.0, 6 0,15.0,1 0,525
b. Gi E l xc xu
i ny hon thnh kho th c tp v
bn hng c hiu qu.
Khi
( )
u kin l m
0,97
(tham.du.co.hieu.qua)
P(D)
0,525
BI TP
Bi tp 2
a. Gi A l bin c 2 sn ph m tt v 2 sn ph m xu.
c trng hp c m t trong bng sau:
Trng hp 1
Trng hp 2
L I
2 tt
2 xu
L II
2 xu
2 tt
35
Trng hp 3
1 tt + 1 xu
1 tt + 1 xu
S trng hp
thun li
Do ()
C102 C72
C52 C82
2
C10
C72 C52 C82 C110 C15 C17 C18
0,365
2
2
C15
C15
b. Gi B l bin c ch c 1 sn ph m tt, 1 sn ph m xu t l I vi iu
kin chn c 2 sn ph m tt v 2 sn ph m xu. Khi :
C1 C1 C1 C71
10 5 8 7
() 102 5 2 8
0,0263
C15 C15 () 105 105 0,365
Bi tp 3:
Bi lm
a. Gi D l bin c
c bi.
Gi A, B, C ln lt l cc bin c SV , , lm c bi.
-
0.186
(D)
0.452
Bi tp 4:
Bi lm
Gi A l bin c ly c t nht mt sn ph m loi B trong 5 sn ph m ngu
nhin t 40 sn ph m cn li. Khi A l bin c b ca bin c A l chn c c 5 sn
ph m u l loi A trong 40 sn ph m cn li.
S trng hp thun li cho A l C530
( )
C305
0, 216
5
C40
36
0.167
( )
0.36
( 2 / )
0.25
( )
0.36
( 3 / )
0.583
( )
0.36
V d 52:
Gi A1, A2 ln lt l bin c ly c cc chnh phm ca l 1, 2.
a. Gi A l bin c l
c 2 chnh ph m
b. Gi B l bin c l
c 1 chnh ph m
C16C14
C17 C13
50%
0.5
2
2
C10
C10
V d 53:
Gi A1 l bin c ly c 2 sn ph m ca l 1.
Gi A2 l bin c ly c 2 sn ph m ca l 2.
Gi A3 l bin c ly c 1 sn ph m ca l 1 v 1 sn ph m ca l 2.
a) Gi A l bin c ly c 2 chnh ph m.
Theo cng thc xc sut y :
37
( ) ( 1 )( / 1 ) ( 2 )( / 2 ) ( 3 )( / 3 )
2
0, 4505
C122 C102 C122 C102
C12 10 10
b) Gi B l bin c ly c 1 chnh ph m.
Theo cng thc xc sut y :
() ( 1 )( / 1 ) ( 2 )( / 2 ) ( 3 )( / 3 )
1
C22 C61C41 C102 C71C31 C21C10
63
47
) 0, 4657
C122 C102
C122 C102
C122 10 10 10 10
V d 54:
VN
P(VN/T)=10%
Tt
P(T)=70%
Xu
TN
VN
P(TN/T)=90%
P(VN/X)=40%
P(X)=30%
TN
P(TN/X)=60%
a. Xc su
i vay thuc loi tt v tr n
P TN / T P(T)(TN / T) 0.7 0.1 0.07
-
37%
P(VN)
P(VN)
0.19
Kh nng ngi n vay v n l ngi tt
P(XVN) P(X)P(VN / X) 0.12
P(T / VN)
63%
P(VN)
P(VN)
0.19
V d 55:
a.
Gi A l bin c cn tm
5 4 4 3
P(A) 0.44444
9 8 9 8
b. c trng hp c th c, TTT hoc XTT hoc XXT
Gi B l bin c cn tm c:
4 3 2 5 4 3 5 4 4
P(B) . . . . . . 0.33
9 8 7 9 8 7 9 8 7
V d 56:
Theo cng thc xc sut Bayes ta c xc sut cy vit do PX1 sn xut l:
( 1 )( / 1 ) 0.5 0.01
( 1 / )
0.29
( )
0.017
V d 57:
Gi A l xc sut b t l ngi vay tt, vy: P(A)
0.7 0.9
0.7778
0.7 0.9 0.3 0.6
V d 58:
Theo cng thc Bayes xc sut 2 chnh ph m thuc l 1 l:
C62
50% 2
C10
( 1 )( / 1 )
( 1 / )
0.42
( )
0.4
V d 59:
Theo cng thc Bayes ta c:
1 15
.
( 1 )( / 1 ) 66 45
( 1 / )
0, 01121
( )
0, 4505
Bi 7, trang 14
Gi n l s sn ph m m cng ty sn xut ra. Gi A l bin c sn xut c t nht
01 chnh ph m, vy A l bin c i ca bin c A, khng c chnh ph m no.
39
( ) ( 1 )( / 1 ) ( 2 )( / 2 ) ( 3 )( / 3 )
C32
C31C21
C22
2 0,9.0,9 2 0,8.0,8 2 0,9.0,8 0, 739
C5
C5
C5
b) Gi B l bin c sau 1 nm c 1 chi tit b hng.
() ( 1 )( / 1 ) ( 2 )( / 2 ) ( 3 )( / 3 )
C32
C31C21
C22
2.0,1.0,9
2.0,
2.0,8
(C / )
0,1.2.0,8.0, 2 0, 6.0,9.0, 2
0, 4783
0, 242
Bi tp 2.
Gi A1 l bin c mua c 2 sn ph m ca dy chuyn 1.
Gi A2 l bin c mua c 2 sn ph m ca dy chuyn 2.
Gi A3 l bin c mua c 1 sn ph m ca dy chuyn 1 v 1 sn ph m ca dy chuyn
2.
a) Gi A l bin c mua c 2 chnh ph m.
Theo cng thc y ta c:
( ) ( 1 )( / 1 ) ( 2 )( / 2 ) ( 3 ) ( / 3 )
1
1
1
0,98.0,98 0,97.0,97 0,98.0,97 0,951
1
4
2
b) Gi B l bin c mua c 1 chnh ph m.
() ( 1 )( / 1 ) ( 2 )( / 2 ) ( 3 )( / 3 )
1
1
1
2.0,98.0, 02 2.0,97.0, 03 (0,98.0, 03 0,97.0, 02) 0, 04875
4
4
2
Bi tp 3.
Gi A1 l bin c sn ph m c kim tra l ph ph m.
Gi A2 l bin c sn ph m c kim tra l chnh ph m.
a) Gi A l bin c sn ph m c kt lun l chnh ph m.
Theo cng thc xc sut y .
( ) ( 1 )( / 1 ) ( 2 ) ( / 2 )
( 1 / )
( 1 )( / 1 )
0, 00058
( )
(2 / )
( 2 )( / 1 )
0,95.0,1
0, 6574
1 0,8555
( )
() ( 1 )( / 1 ) ( 2 )( / 2 )
0, 05.0, 01 0,95.0,1 0, 0955
Bi tp 4.
Gi A1 l bin c ly c chai ru loi A.
Gi A2 l bin c ly c chai ru loi B.
Gi A l bin c 3 ngi kt lun chai ru loi
Theo cng thc xc sut y .
( ) ( 1 )( / 1 ) ( 2 )( / 2 )
( 1 ) ( 2 ) 0,5
3
3
1
3
Do ( ) 0,5.C4 .0,8 .0, 2 0,5.C4 .0,8.0, 2 0, 2176
( 1 / )
( 1 )( / 1 ) 0,5.0, 4096
0,941
( )
0, 2176
Bi tp 5.
Gi A1 l bin c ly c 1 sn ph m ca l 1.
Gi A2 l bin c ly c 1 sn ph m ca l 2.
a) Gi A l bin c ly c ph ph m.
Theo cng thc xc sut y :
( ) ( 1 )( / 1 ) ( 2 ) ( / 2 )
0,5.0, 2 0,5.0,3 0, 25
Xc sut ly c ph ph m t l 1 l:
( 1 )( / 1 ) 0,5.0, 2
( 1 / )
0, 4
( )
0, 25
b) Gi B l bin c t l cn li ly c ph ph m.
Theo cu a) xc sut ph ph m t l 2 l 1-0,4=0,6
41