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Khoa Kinh t i ngoi

Lp: K11402B
MSSV: K114020317
H v tn: V Thanh Sang

Th nm ngy 22 thng 03 nm 2012


BI TP XC SUT THNG K
im

Li ph ca Ging vin

1. Quy tc cng:
V d 1: Mt ngi mun mua mt chic xe my tay ga hoc xe s. Xe tay ga c 4 loi,
xe s c 6 loi. Hi ngi c bao nhiu cch mua mt chic xe ?
Bi lm:
- Xe tay ga s c 4 s la chn
- Xe s s c 6 s la chn
Nn s cch ngi c th mua mt chic xe l 4 + 6 = 10 cch.
2. Quy tc nhn:
V d 2: Mt bn gi c 6 ci o v c 6 ci qun. Hi bn gi c bao nhiu cch mc
(bit rng mi ln ch mc mt o v mt qun).
Bi lm
Khi hi cch mc th ta phi hon thnh c vic mc o v mc qun.
- Qun c 6 cch chn.
- o c 6 cch chn.
Vy s cch mc l 6 x 6 = 36 cch.
V d 3: Mt bn gi mun din i chi Tt. Bn c 6 i giy, 5 ci nn, 5 thi
son mi Lipice, 10 ci o, 8 ci qun. Hi bn y c bao nhiu cch din i chi Tt ?
Bi lm
Cng vic din i chi tt c hon thnh khi chn xong tt c: giy, nn, thi son,
o, qun.
Giy:
6 cch
Nn:
5 cch
Thi son:
5 cch
o:
10 cch
Qun:
8 cch
Vy s cch ngi ny din i chi tt l: 6.5.5.10.8 = 12.000 cch.
V d 4: Ngi ta pht hnh v s, trn mi t v s gm 6 ch s c chn t cc ch
s 0, ., 9. Hi c th c bao nhiu t v s c pht hnh?
1

Bi lm
Gi abcdef l s trn t v s.
Ta c:
- a c 10 cch chn.
- b c 10 cch chn (v trn t v s ta c th chn li s chn trc)
- c c 10 cch chn.
- d c 10 cch chn.
- e c 10 cch chn.
- f c 10 cch chn.
Vy c 106 t v s c pht hnh theo yu cu ca bi.
3. T hp, chnh hp, hon v:
V d 5: Mt bn c 4 hc sinh. Hi c bao nhiu cch xp ch?
Bi lm
S cch xp ch ngi cho 04 hc sinh l hon v ca 4 phn t P4 4! 24 cch xp
ch
V d 6: C th lp c bao nhiu s t nhin gm 3 ch s khc nhau t cc s
1, 2 , , 6 ?
Bi lm
Ta c 6 s, lp nn s t nhin gm 03 ch s, vy c ngha rng ta s chn ngu
nhin 3 trong 6 s cho lp nn s t nhin, v th t cc s ny l quan trng, v
mi th t khc nhau s to thnh s khc nhau. Vy, s cch lp cc s theo yu cu
bi l: A36 120 (cch)
V d 7: C th lp c bao nhiu s t nhin gm 3 ch s khc nhau t cc s
0, 1, 2, , 6?
Bi lm
Gi s cn tm l ABC . Xt v tr A do s 0 khng th ng u nn v tr ny
c 6 s la chn, lp lun tng t v d 6, BC c to ra t 06 s cn li v c A62 cch.
Vy, chng ta c th lp : 6 A62 180 (s)
V d 8: Mt hp ng 9 th c nh s t 1, 2, 3 ,., 9. Hi c bao nhiu cch chn
3 th t 9 th (khng phn bit th t cc th).
Bi lm
Chn 3 th ngu nhin trong 9 th v th t cc th khng quan trng nn s cch
chn l: C39 84 (cch)
2

V d 9: Mt lp hc c 30 hc sinh nam v 20 hc sinh n. Hi c bao nhiu cch lp


ra mt i vn ngh gm 5 nam va 5 n (gi s ai cng tham gia c)?
Bi lm
Do khng c phn bit th t nn s cch:
-

Chn 05 nam trong 30 HS nam l: C530 cch.

Chn 05 n trong 20 HS n l: C520 cch.

Do i vn ngh gm c 05 nam v 05 n, nn p dng quy tc nhn, ta c: cch lp l:

C530 C520 2.209.413.024 cch.


V d 10: Mt lp hc c 20 hc sinh nam v 30 hc sinh n. Cn lp ra mt tam ca
n v mt i ma gm 5 nam, 5 n.
a) C bao nhiu cch thc hin vic ny?
b) C bao nhiu cch thc hin nu ai tham gia ca th khng tham gia ma?
Bi lm
a. Da vo d kin bi cho ta thy, th t cc hc sinh l khng quan trng.
-

Lp mt tam ca n trong 30 HS n, c C330 cch.

Lp i ma gm 5 nam + 5 n
+

S cch chn ngu nhin 5 nam trong 20 HS nam l: C520 cch.

S cch chn ngu nhin 5 n trong 30 HS n l: C530 cch.

5
Ta p dng quy tc nhn tm s cch lp i ma: C520 C30
cch.

Yu cu ca bi l lp ra mt tam ca n v mt i ma gm 5 nam, 5 n. Nn ta phi


5
p dng quy tc nhn. Vy s cch cn tm l: C330 C520 C30
(cch)

b. C bao nhiu cch thc hin nu ai tham gia ca th khng tham gia ma?
- S cch lp ra tam ca n : p n cu a.
- S cch lp ra i ma gm 5 nam v 5 n: Do ai tham gia ca th khng tham
gia ma nn s n cn li l 30 3 27 n. Vy s cch lp nn i ma s l:

C520 C527 (cch).


- Yu cu ca bi l lp ra mt tam ca n v mt i ma gm 5 nam, 5 n (nu
ai tham gia ca th khng tham gia ma). Nn ta phi p dng quy tc nhn, tm
c p s l: C330 C520 C527 cch
BI TP
Bi 1. C hai hp I v II mi hp cha 10 bi, trong hp I gm 9 bi ,1 bi trng; hp II
gm 6 bi , 4 bi trng. Ly ngu nhin t mi hp 2 bi.
a. Hi c bao nhiu cch chn 2 bi t mi hp?
b. Hi c bao nhiu cch chn c 2 bi ?
3

c. Hi c bao nhiu cch chn 2 bi v 2 bi trng?


d. Hi c bao nhiu cch chn 3 bi v 1 bi trng?
Bi lm
a. Do khng phn bit th t nn hp 1 c C102 cch chn, tng t hp 2 cng c

C102 cch chn. Vy s c C102 C102 cch chn 2 bi t mi hp.


b. Chn c 02 bi xy ra cc trng hp sau:
Hp 1
Hp 2

Trng hp 1
2
2 trng

Trng hp 2
1 + 1 trng
1 + 1 trng

Trng hp 1:
-

Ly t hp I hai bi c : C92 cch

Ly t hp II hai bi trng c : C24 cch

p dng quy tc nhn (do mt trng hp l phi ly c 04 bi) ta c s


cch chn c 2 bi l: C92 C42 216 cch.

Trng hp 2:
- Ly t hp I; 1 bi + 1 bi trng c C19 C11 cch.
-

Ly t hp II; 1 bi + 1 bi trng c C16 C14 cch.

Tng t trng hp 1, ta p dng quy tc nhn c s cch chn TH2 l:

C19 C11 C16 C14 216 cch.


Ta p dng quy tc cng cho cu b ny (v mi trng hp 1 v 2 u hon
thnh c cng vic l chn ra 4 bi m c 2 bi ), ta c s cch chn theo yu
cu bi l: 216 216 432 cch.
c. Cu hi cu c l chn c 2 bi v 2 bi trng, cng chnh l 2 trng hp
c lit k ra cu b, vy p n vn l 432 cch chn.
d. Chn 3 + 1 trng
Hp 1
Hp 2

Trng hp 1
2
1 + 1 trng

Trng hp 2
1 + 1 trng
2

Lp lun tng t cu b, ta c:

Trng hp 1: S cch chn l : C92 C16 C14 864 cch.

Tng hp 2: S cch chn l : C19 C11 C62 135 cch.

p dng quy tc cng ta c, s cch chn tha YCBT l: 864 135 999 cch.
Bi 2. Mt lp c 50 sinh vin (trong c 30 nam v 20 n). Chn ngu nhin 4 sinh
vin.
a. Hi c bao nhiu cch chn c 4 sinh vin ?
b. Hi c bao nhiu cch chn c 2 sinh vin nam v 2 sinh vin n ?
c. Hi c bao nhiu cch chn c t nht 1 sinh vin nam ?
4

d. Hi c bao nhiu cch chn c nhiu nht 2 sinh vin nam ?


e. Hi c bao nhiu cch chn c 4 sinh vin n ?
Bi lm
a. Chn 4 sinh vin trong 50 sinh vin khng phn bit th t nn s cch chn l:
4
C50
230.300 cch chn.

b. Chn 2 SV Nam v 2 SV n
-

2
Giai on 1: chn 2 SV nam, c C30
435 cch chn.

Giai on 2: chn 2 SV n, c C 220 cch chn.

p dng quy tc nhn ta c s cch chn cu ny l: 435 190 82.650


cch.
c. Chn t nht 1 SV nam, y l bin c i vs bin c khng chn c SV nam no,
tc chn c 4 SV n.
-

S cch chn 4 SV n l: C420 4845 cch.

S cch chn ngu nhin 4 SV trong 50 SV khng quan trng th t l:

4
C50
230.300 cch.
Vy s cch chn c t nht 1 SV nam l: 230.300 4.545 225.455 cch.

d. Nhiu nht 2 SV nam

Trng hp 1
Trng hp 2
Nam
1
2
N
3
2
1
3
Trng hp 1: s cch chn l: C30 C20 34.200 cch.

2
2
Trng hp 2: s cch chn l: C30
C20
82.650 cch.

p dng qui tc cng ta c s cch cn tnh l: 34.200 82.650 116.850


cch.
e. S cch chn c 04 SV n lm cu c, p n l 4845 cch.
-

: i c bao nhiu cch to thnh mt s t nhin gm 3 ch s khc nhau v l 1 s


ch n t cc s 0,1,2,,9.
Bi lm
ng ton ny, lp mt s c 03 ch s m tm s ch n khi c mt s 0 (khng), ta phi
tin hnh xt xem cc trng hp s cui cng c phi l s 0 hay khng?
Gi s cn tm l ABC , ta c:
TH1: C = 0
A: c 09 cch chn (b s 0)
B: c 08 cch (do cc s phi khc nhau)
5

Vy s cch lp trong TH1 l: 1 9 8 72 cch.


TH2: C 0
C: c 4 cch chn (gm 2, 4, 6, 8)
A: c 8 cch chn (l ra c 9 nhng s 0 khng c ng u)
B: c 8 cch chn (v trng hp ny c th tnh s 0 vo)
Vy s cch lp l: 8 8 4 256 cch.
p dng qui tc cng i vi TH1 v TH2 ta c, s cch lp s c 03 ch s ph hp
YCBT l: 256 72 328 cch.
ngi

10 ngi cn xp thnh mt hng ngang.


v :

i c bao nhiu cch xp hai

a. ng cnh nhau.
b. Khng ng cnh nhau.
c. ng cch nhau 1 ngi.
d. ng cch nhau 5 ngi.
Bi lm
a. ng cnh nhau
- A v B c th hon v cho nhau c 2! 2 cch sp xp.
- A v B ghp li xem nh l mt ngi sp chung vi 8 ngi cn li thnh
hng 9 ngi s c 9! 362.880 cch sp xp.
- p dng qui tc nhn ta c s cch sp xp l: 2 362.880 725.760 cch
sp xp
b.

A v B khng ng cnh nhau l phn b ca v ng cnh nhau, vy s cch


v khng ng cnh nhau l: 10! 725.760 2.903.040 cch.
c.

- A v B c th hon v cho nhau c 2! 2 cch sp xp.


- C 8 cch chn 1 ngi ng gia A v B.
- Xem nh , ngi ng gia v l 01 ngi ng cng 7 ngi cn li
c 8! cch sp xp na.
- p dng qui tc nhn, s cch sp xp tha YCBT l: 2 8 8! 645.120
cch sp xp.
d.

- A v B c th hon v cho nhau c 2! 2 cch sp xp.


- chn 05 ngi ng gia A v B, c phn bit th t v i ch s c
cch sp mi nn c A85 cch sp xp.
-

Ghp , 5 ngi gia v


c 4! cch sp xp.

l 1 ngi ng cng vi 03 ngi cn li vy

p dng qui tc nhn, ta c s cch sp xp l: 2 A85 4! 322.560 cch.

Xp ngu nhin 8 ngi vo 10 toa xe la. i c bao nhiu cch xp:


a. 8 ngi cng mt toa.
b. 8 ngi 8 toa khc nhau.
c. A, B cng toa u.
d. , cng 1 toa.
e. , cng mt toa, ngoi ra khng c n ai khc.
Bi lm

Xp ngu nhin 08 ngi (ch c 08 ngi) vo cng mt toa xe m xe li c 10


toa, vy c 10 cch sp xp.
b.

c nhau.
Khi 8 ngi ln 8 toa, 8 toa ny phn bit v hon ton khc nhau, nn s cch sp
a.

8
s l: A10
1.814.400 cch.

c.
A, B cng toa u, c 01 cch chn.
n 06 ngi cn li, mi ngi c th c quyn chn 10 toa, vy c
10 10 10 10 10 10 106 cch sp na.
p dng qui tc nhn ta c: 1106 106 cch sp xp.
d.
Tng t cu c, ch khc ch, A v B lc ny s c 10 cch chn. Nn p s s
l: 10 106 107 cch chn.
e.

r
A v B ln cng 1 toa nn c 10 cch chn. Do trong toa v khng c ngi
no na nn 6 ngi cn li mi ngi ch cn c 09 cch chn, nn s cch chn
ca 06 ngi ny l: 9 6 cch sp xp.
p dng qui tc nhn, ta c s cch sp xp l: 10 96 cch sp xp.
p th nht c 8 chai thuc (trong c 3 chai km ph m cht). p th hai c 5
chai thuc (trong c 2 chai km ph m cht). y ngu nhin t mi hp ra mt chai.
i c bao nhiu cch:
a) y c 2 chai thuc.
b) y c 2 chai thuc tt.
c) y c 1 chai tt v 1 chai km ph m cht.
Bi lm
a. S

Hp 1: ly ngu nhin 1 chai thuc trong 8 chai khng phn bit th t nn c

C18 cch ly.

Hp 2: ly ngu nhin 1 chai thuc trong 5 chai khng phn bit th t nn c

C15 cch ly.

p dng qui tc nhn, c s cch ly c hai chai thuc l:


C18 C15 8 5 40 cch.
b.

c.



C duy nht 01 trng hp:
-

Hp 1: 1 tt c C15 cch ly.

Hp 2: 1 tt c C13 cch ly.

p dng qui tc nhn c C15 C13 5 3 15 cch.

- Xy ra cc trng hp sau:
Trng hp 1
Hp 1
Tt
Hp 2
Xu
rng hp 1:

Trng hp 2
Xu
Tt

S cch ly l: C15 C12 5 2 10 cch.


X

rng hp 2:
S cch ly l: C13 C13 3 3 9 cch.
p dng qui tc cng c: 10 9 19 cch ly.

: 12 ngi trong c 7 nam v 5 n xp ngu nhin thnh mt hng ngang.


i c bao nhiu cch xp 12 ngi sao cho:
a) Thnh mt hng ngang.
b) N khng ng cnh nhau.
c) h c hai ch v ng cnh nhau.
d) h c hai ch ng cnh nhau.
Bi lm

a. T

Sp xp thnh 01 hng ngang ngu nhin, bt k, nn s cch xp l


12! 479.001.600 cch.
b.

Do n khng ng cnh nam nn n phi ng xem k vi nam. (M: male)


M
M
M
M
M
M B
A M
- 7 nam s c 7! cch sp xp.
- Gia 7 nam c 6 ch cho n vo + vi u v u B. Tng cng c 8 ch
cho n vo. S sp xp 5 n ny vo 8 ch trn l c phn bit th t v
bng: A85 cch.
c.

p dng qui tc nhn, s cch cn tm l: 7! A85 33.868.800 cch.

Tng t cu b,
- 7 nam c 7! cch sp xp
8

ng cnh nhau c 2! cch sp xp.

Hai ch

A v B gp chung thnh 1, sp cng vs 3 n cn li vo 8 ch, vy c A84


cch sp.

d.

Vy s cch sp xp s l: 7! 2! A84 16.934.400 cch sp xp.

Xp 7 nam trc c 7!.

Ly ngu nhin 2 ch v 2 ch ny c phn bit th t nn c A52 cch ly.

Gp chung 2 ch ny li, xem nh c 4 ch xp vo 8 ch trng c A84 cch

xp.
-

p dng qui tc nhn c: 7! A52 A84 169.344.000 cch sp xp.

t ban lnh o gm 10 thnh vin ca


c trch nhim m bo rng tt c
cc d n xy dng mi p ng cc chu n mc c ra. t nh ga mi c d tnh
c xy dng
. t y ban nh gm 4 thnh vin c chn ra xem xt d n
ny. i c bao nhiu cch chn ra 4 thnh vin ny?
Bi lm
Lp 1 y ban gm 4 ngi, chn ngu nhin trong 10 thnh vin ca TP HCM,
khng phn bit chc v v th t l khng quan trng nn s cch ly l: C104 cch.
: t thnh vin ca t chc bo v mi trng mun chn la ngu nhin mt mu
gm 10 bi rc. Trong thnh ph hin c 15 bi rc m c y c th chn la. i c bao
nhiu cch chn la?
Bi lm
Thnh vin ny chn ngu nhin 10 bi rc trong s 15 bi rc; khng phn bit
th t nn s cch chn l: C10
15 3003 cch.
T bo Times chu n b 15 cu hi phng vn tng thng. s chn la ra
10 cu hi. i c bao nhiu cch chn khc nhau chn la ra 10 cu hi ny bit rng
vic chn la c sp th t ?
Bi lm
T bo Times chn ngu nhin 10 trong 15 cu hi v c phn bit th t hi
tng thng, vy s cch chn l: A10
15 cch.
t cng ty sp c thnh lp vi 3 ngi lnh o, mt nhm gm 7 nh qun
l hon ton c kh nng m nhn cc vai tr ny. i c bao nhiu cch chn ra 3
nh lnh o t 7 nh qun l hin c ?
Bi lm
Chn 3 ngi lnh o trong 7 ngi qun l, khng phn bit th t nn s cch
chn s l: C 37 cch.
9

II. PHP TH (TH NGHIM) NGU NHIN v BIN C


2.1 Php th v bin c ngu nhin

Mt ngi bn 03 vin n vo mt mc tiu. Hi c bao nhiu trng


hp v lit k cc trng hp ny ?
Bi lm
A l bin c bn trng mt mc tiu = { A1 A2 A3 ; A1A2 A3 ; A1 A2A3 }
B l bin c c 2 vin bn trng mc tiu = { B1B2 B3 ; B1 B2B3 ; B1B2 B3 }
C l bin c c 3 vin trng mc tiu = { C1C 2 C3 }
D l bin c c t nht mt vin trng mc tiu = {ABC}
E l bin c khng vin no trng mc tiu = { E1 E2 E3 }

t th nghim lin quan n vic thy mt con xc xc. y nn r cc


bin c s cp trong nhng bin c sau y:
a.
: quan st c s 2
b.
: quan st c mt s l
c.
: quan st c mt s nh hn 4
d. D : quan st c c v
e.
: quan st c hoc hoc c hai
f.
: quan st c c v .
Bi lm
Bin c s cp c trong cc trng hp c lit k l: : Quan st c s 2.
V d 14-1: Mt nh u t s hu 3 loi c phiu. Mi c phiu, c lp vi nhau s c
nhng kh nng sau (1) gim gi tr;(2) tng gi tr; (3) khng thay i gi tr. Lit k tt
c nhng kt qu c th xy ra ca 3 c phiu ny?
Bi lm
Cc kt qu c th xy ra c m t trong bng sau:
C phiu I

C phiu II

C phiu III

10

2.2 Quan h gia cc bin c

t lp hc c 30 sinh vin bit t nht mt trong hai ngoi ng anh vn


hoc hp vn, trong c 20 sinh vin gii nh vn, 15 sinh vin gii hp vn. i c
bao nhiu sinh vin gii c nh vn v hp vn ?
Bi lm
S s lp l 30 SV, nhng s ngi bit ting Anh v ting Php cng li l
20 15 35 ngi > s s lp. Vy s ngi gii c hai ngn ng l: 35 30 5 ngi.

t hi ngh c 50 i biu tham d th trong c 30 ngi bit ting nh,


20 ngi bit ting hp, 15 ngi bit ting Nga, 10 ngi bit ting nh v hp, 8
ngi bit ting nh v Nga, 5 ngi bit ting hp v Nga, 3 ngi bit ting nh,
hp, Nga. i c bao nhiu ngi:
a)
b)

it t nht mt ngoi ng k trn


h bit ting nh.
Bi lm

i bit t nht mt ngoi ng c tnh theo cng thc:


Ngi bit ting Anh + Bit ting Php + bit ting Nga ngi bit ting Anh,
Nga - ngi bit ting Anh, Php ngi bit ting hp, Nga + ngi bit ting Anh,
Php, Nga = 30 20 15 10 8 5 3 45 ngi.
a. S

11

b. Ch bit ting Anh


S ngi bit ting Anh s ngi bit ting Anh, Php s ngi bit ting Anh
Nga + s ngi bit ting Anh, Php, Nga = 30 10 8 3 15 ngi.
-1:
bi. Tm:

t hp c 10 vin bi, trong c 8 vin bi xanh. y ngu nhin ra 3 vin

a. Xc sut c 3 vin bi l bi xanh


b. Xc sut ch c 2 vin bi xanh.
Bi lm
a. Gi A l l bin cl
- S trng hp thun li ly c 03 bi xanh l: C 83
-

S trng hp ng kh nng l: C103

Vy xc sut cn tm l: P(A)

C83
7

3
C10 15

b. Gi B l bin l c ch 2 vin bi xanh


- S trng hp thun li cho B l: C82 C12
-

S trng hp ng kh nng l: C103


Vy xc sut cn tm l: P(B)

C82C12 7
3
C10
15

t hp thuc c 20 ng thuc, trong c 16 ng thuc c n hn. y ngu


nhin ra 4 ng. Tm:
a) Xc sut ch c 3 ng c n hn
b) Xc sut ch c 1 ng c n hn.
Bi lm
a. Gi A l bin c l c 3 ng cn hn s dng
- S trng hp thun li cho A l: C163 C14
-

S trng hp ng kh nng l: C420


Vy xc sut cn tm l: P(A)

3
C16
C14 448
4
C20
969

b. Gi B l bin c l c ch c 1 ng cn hn s dng
- S trng hp thun li cho A l: C116 C34
-

S trng hp ng kh nng l: C420

Vy xc sut cn tm l: P(B)

C116C34
64

4
C20
4845

on tu gm 3 toa tin vo mt sn ga, trong ang c 12 hnh khch ch


ln tu. Gi s hnh khch ln tu mt cch ngu nhin v c lp vi nhau: mi toa c n
t nht 12 ch trng. Tm xc sut :
12

a) Tt c cng ln toa II
b) Tt c cng ln mt toa
c) Toa I c 4 ngi, toa II c 5 ngi, c n li ln toa III
d) Toa I c 4 ngi.
Bi lm
a. Gi A l bin c tt c cng ln toa II
- S trng hp thun li cho A l 1.
-

S trng hp ng kh nng l: 312 (v 1 hnh khch c 3 quyn la chn ln


tu v tu c 03 toa. M c tt c 12 hnh khch nn s trng hp ng kh
nng c th xy ra l: 3.3.3...3 312 .

Vy xc sut cn tm l: P(A)

1
312

b. Gi B l bin c tt c cng ln 01 toa


- S trng hp thun li cho B l 3 (v tu c 03 toa).
-

S trng hp ng kh nng l: 312 (v 1 hnh khch c 3 quyn la chn ln


tu v tu c 03 toa. M c tt c 12 hnh khch nn s trng hp ng kh
nng c th xy ra l: 3.3.3...3 312 .

Vy xc sut cn tm l: P(A)

3
312

c. Gi C l bin c T

4
- S cch chn ngi ln toa 1 l: C12 cch (v chn ngu nhin 4 trong 12
khng phn bit th t sp ln toa 1 m thi).
-

S cch chn ngi ln toa 2 l: C 85 cch.

S cch chn ngi ln toa 3 l: C 33 cch.

Vy xc sut cn tm l: P(C)

4
C12
C85C33 34.650

312
312

d. Gi D l bin c

S cch chn ngi ln toa I l: C124 cch.


8 ngi cn li c 28 cch chn.
p dng quy tc nhn c: s trng hp ca bin c D l: C124 28
-

Vy xc sut cn tm l: P(D)

4
C12
28
312

Thang my ca 1 khch sn c 10 tng xut pht t tng 1 vi 5 khch vo ch


thang my. i khch ln tng mt cch ngu nhin v c lp vi nhau. Tm xc sut
:
a. Tt c cng ln tng 5
b. Tt c cng ln mt tng
c. 5 ngi ra 5 tng khc nhau
13

d. Ngi

ra cng tng.
Bi lm

a. Gi A l bin c tt c cng ln t ng 5
- S trng hp thun li cho A l 1.
-

S trng hp ng kh nng l: 9 5 (v 1 hnh khch c quyn chn ln t


tng 2 n 10, mi ngi c 9 s la chn).

Vy xc sut cn tm l: P(A)

1
95

b. Gi B l bin c tt c cng ln mt t ng
- S trng hp thun li cho B l 9.
-

S trng hp ng kh nng l: 9 5 (v 1 hnh khch c quyn chn ln t


tng 2 n 10, mi ngi c 9 s la chn).

Vy xc sut cn tm l: P(B)

9
1
4
5
9
9

c. Gi C l bin c
r
Thang mays i t tng 2 n tng 10, c phn bit th t. Khch ra cc tng s phn
bit vi nhau.
- S trng hp thun li cho C l A 59 .
-

S trng hp ng kh nng l: 9 5 (v 1 hnh khch c quyn chn ln t


tng 2 n 10, mi ngi c 9 s la chn).
Vy xc sut cn tm l: P(C)

A59 15.120
5
9
95

d. Gi D l bin c
r
- S trng hp thun li cho D l 9.93 (v A v B ra cng tng c 9 trng hp
thun li, 3 ngi cn li mi ngi li c 9 quyn la chn nn c 93 cch,
vy s trng hp ca A l 9.93).
-

S trng hp ng kh nng l: 9 5 (v 1 hnh khch c quyn chn ln t


tng 2 n 10, mi ngi c 9 s la chn).

Vy xc sut cn tm l: P(C)

9.93 1

95
9

t ngi mua 15 chic tivi. nh ta s ng mua l tivi 15 chic nu kim


tra ng u nhin 4 chic, thy khng c chic no b khuyt tt. h ca hng a ra 15
chic trong c 3 chic b khuyt tt. Tnh kh nng ch ca hng gp may bn c l
hng ?
Bi lm
-

Gi A l bin c ngi ch ca hng bn c l hng.


Ngi mua kim tra ngu nhin 4 chic trong 15 chic, khng phn bit th t nn s
4

cch chn l C15


14

Nu ch ca hng c gp may th ngi mua kim tra 4 chic phi l tt trong 154
3=12 chic tt ca ca hng. S trng hp thun li xy ra l: C12
Vy xc sut ch ca hng gp may bn c l hng l: (A)

4
C12
33
4
C15 91

T l ph m ca mt nh my l 5 . y gii thch v con s ny.


Bi lm

Con s 5 c ngha l nu chn ngu nhin 100% s sn ph m c sn xut ra ti nh


my th ph ph m s l 5%.

Bn chung bo chy hot ng c lp vi nhau. Xc sut khi c chy mi


chung ku l 0,95. y gii thch con s ny.
Bi lm
Con s ny c

ngha l: khi c chy th xc sut mi chung ku s l 95%.

hai x th loi I v 8 x th loi II. Xc sut bn trng ch ca cc loi x


th theo th t l 0,9 v 0,8. y gii thch v cc con s trn.
Bi lm
Con s trn c ngha l kh nng bn trng ca 2 x th loi I l 90% v kh nng bn
trng ca 8 x th loi II l 80%.

ba ca hng I, II, III cng kinh doanh sn ph m . T l sn ph m loi


trong ba ca hng I, II, III ln lt l 70 , 75 v 50 . y gii thch v cc con s
trn.
Bi lm
Con s trn c ngha l sn ph m Y, kh nng loi A mi ca hng I, II, III ln lt
l 0,7; 0,75; 0,5.
BI TP

t lp c 50 sinh vin (trong c 30 nam v 20 n).


sinh vin. Tnh cc xc sut sau:
a) C 2 nam.
b)

t nht 1 sinh vin nam.

c)

nhiu nht 2 sinh vin nam.

d) Khng c sinh vin nam.

15

hn ngu nhin 4

Bi lm
a. Gi A l bin c ch

c chn ra

2
2
S trng hp thun li cho A l : C30 C 20 cch.

4
S trng hp ng kh nng l: C50 cch (v chn ngu nhin 4 trong 50 SV

khng phn bit th t)


-

Vy xc sut ca bin c A l: P(A)

b. Gi B l bin c l

2
2
C30
C20
1653

0.359
4
C50
4606

c 4 SV n.

4
S trng hp thun li cho B l: C 20 cch.

4
S trng hp ng kh nng l: C50 cch (v chn ngu nhin 4 trong 50 SV

khng phn bit th t).

C420
969
4
C50 46060

Vy P(B)

Gi C l bin c ly c t nht 1 sinh vin nam. Ta thy bin c C l bin c


b ca bin c B nn:

P(C) 1 P(B) 1
c. Gi D l bin c l

Nam
N
S trng hp
thun li
-

969
0.979
46060

Trng hp 1
1
3

Trng hp 2
2
2

C130 C320

2
2
C30
C 20

4
S trng hp ng kh nng l: C50 cch (v chn ngu nhin 4 trong 50 SV

khng phn bit th t).


3
2
2
C130 C20
C30
C20

0.5074
4
C50

Vy P(D)

Gi E l bin c khng c SV nam no c chn ra, vy ly c 4 SV n.

4
S trng hp thun li cho E l: C 20

4
S trng hp ng kh nng l: C50 cch (v chn ngu nhin 4 trong 50 SV

d.

khng phn bit th t).

16

Xc sut cn tm l: P(E)

C420
4 0.021
C50

: hai hp I v II mi hp cha 10 bi, trong hp I gm 9 bi , 1 bi trng,


hp II gm 6 bi , 4 bi trng. y ngu nhin t mi hp 2 bi. Tnh xc sut trong cc
cu sau:
a. Chn c 2 bi
b.

hn c 2 bi v 2 bi trng

c.

hn c 3 bi v 1 bi trng.
Bi lm

a. Gi A l bin c ch

Chn c 02 bi xy ra cc trng hp sau:


Trng hp 1
2
2 trng

Hp 1
Hp 2
Trng hp 1:
- Ly t hp I hai bi c : C92 cch

Trng hp 2
1 + 1 trng
1 + 1 trng

Ly t hp II hai bi trng c : C24 cch

p dng quy tc nhn (do mt trng hp l phi ly c 04 bi) ta c s


cch chn c 2 bi l: C92 C42 216 cch.

Trng hp 2:
- Ly t hp I; 1 bi + 1 bi trng c C19 C11 cch.
-

Ly t hp II; 1 bi + 1 bi trng c C16 C14 cch.

Tng t trng hp 1, ta p dng quy tc nhn c s cch chn TH2 l:

C19 C11 C16 C14 216 cch.


Ta p dng quy tc cng cho cu b ny (v mi trng hp 1 v 2 u
hon thnh c cng vic l chn ra 4 bi m c 2 bi ), ta c s cch chn theo
yu cu bi l: 216 216 432 cch.
2
2
- S trng hp ng kh nng l: C10 C10 2025
-

432
Vy xc sut cn tm l: P( A ) 2025 0.213

b. Cu hi cu b l ch
v 2 bi trng, cng chnh l 2 trng hp
c lit k ra cu a, Vy xc sut cn tm vn l 0.213.
c. Ch
+ 1 trng
Trng hp 1
Trng hp 2
Hp 1
2
1 + 1 trng
Hp 2
1 + 1 trng
2
-

Lp lun tng t cu a, ta c:
17

Trng hp 1: S cch chn l : C92 C16 C14 864 cch.

Tng hp 2: S cch chn l : C19 C11 C62 135 cch.

p dng quy tc cng ta c, s cch chn tha YCBT l: 864 135 999 cch.
-

2
S trng hp ng kh nng l: C10
C102 2025

999

Vy xc sut cn tm l: P( A ) 2025 0.4933

Ba (03) bn chi nh rng b li v tnh c chuyn n mt nh thuc cng


vi 17 bn chi khng b li.
a. Xc sut 2 bn chi u tin bn ra b tr li v do b li l bao nhiu?
b. Xc sut 2 bn chi u tin bn m khng b tr li l bao nhiu?
Bi lm
a. Gi A l bin c 2 bn

r .

S trng hp thun li cho A l: C32 trng hp.

S trng hp ng kh nng l: C 220 (v chn ngu nhin 2 trong 20 bn


chi).

Vy xc sut cn tm l: P(A)

C32
3

2
C20 190

b. Gi B l bin c

r i.

S trng hp thun li cho B l: C172 trng hp.

S trng hp ng kh nng l: C 220 (v chn ngu nhin 2 trong 20 bn


chi).

Vy xc sut cn tm l: P(A)

C172 136

0.716
C220 190

: hn mi (90) hc sinh s tt nghip t trng ph thng ima Shawnee


trong ma xun ny. Trong 90 hc sinh ny c 50 hc sinh d nh s hc tip i hc.
ai hoc sainh c chn ngu nhin ko c trong bui l tt nghip.
a. Tnh xc sut c hai hc sinh c chn u d nh hc tip i hc?
b. Tnh xc sut mt trong hai hoc sinh c chn d nh hc tip i hc?
Bi lm
a. Gi A l bin c

2
S trng hp thun li cho A l: C50
trng hp.

2
S trng hp ng kh nng l: C90
(v chn ngu nhin 2 trong 90

ngi).
-

Vy xc sut cn tm l: P(A)

2
C50
245
2
0.306
C90 801

18

b. Gi B l bin c
-

Mt trong hai d nh hc , vy 1 ngi hc, ngi cn li s khng


hc.

S trng hp thun li cho B l: C 50 C 40 trng hp.

2
S trng hp ng kh nng l: C90
(v chn ngu nhin 2 trong 90

ngi).
-

Vy xc sut cn tm l: P(B)

C150 C140 400

0.499
2
C90
801

5: an gim c ca mt cng ty ca t ng Saner c 12 thnh vin, trong c


3 n, mt hi gm 3 ngi c chn ngu nhin t ban gim c trn vit k hoch
v chnh sch hng nm mi cho cng ty.
a. Tnh xc sut tt c thnh vin ca hi ng c chn ra u l nam?
b. Tnh xc sut t nht mt thnh vin ca hi ng c chn ra la n?
Bi lm

a. Gi A l bin c

S trng hp thun li cho B l: C 9 trng hp.

3
S trng hp ng kh nng l: C12
(v chn ngu nhin 2 trong 90 ngi).

C39 21
3
0.382
C12 55

Vy xc sut cn tm l: P(B)

b. Gi B l bin c

R rng bin c A l bin c b ca bin c B, vy:


P(B) 1 P(A) 1

21 34

0.618
55 55

Trong 24 lon nc ngt c mt (01) lon b nhi m khu n. y ngu nhin 3 lon
kim tra.
a.

i c bao nhiu cch khc nhau c th chn ca 3 lon nc trn.

b. Tnh xc sut lon b nhi m khu n c trong khi chn kim tra.
Bi lm
c ngt ngu nhin, khng phn bit th t trong 24 lon nc

a. Ch

ngt. Vy c: C324 cch.


b. Gi A l bin c

r .

S trng hp thun li cho A l: C1 C 23 trng hp.

S trng hp ng kh nng l: C324 (v chn ngu nhin 2 trong 90

ngi).
-

Vy xc sut cn tm l: P(B)

2
C11 C23
1

0.125
C324
8

19

3.3 Mt s quy tc tnh xc sut:


3.3.1 Quy tc cng
Quy tc c

n
V d 29: t l hng cha 15 sn ph m gm 10 sn ph m tt v 5 sn ph m xu.
hn ngu nhin t l hng ra 4 sn ph m. Tnh xc sut trong 4 sn ph m chn ra c:
a. S sn ph m tt khng t hn s sn ph m xu.
b. t nht 1 sn ph m xu.
a. Gi A l bin c
cc trng hp:

Bi lm
c ch r

Trng hp 1
Trng hp 2

3 tt
2 tt

Trng hp 1: Gi A1 l bin c

1 xu
2 xu
rng hp 1

3
S trng hp thun li l: C10
C15

S trng hp ng kh nng l: C154

Vy : P(A1)

C103 C15 40

C154
91

Trng hp 2: Gi A2 l bin c rng hp 2


- S trng hp thun li l: C102 C52
-

S trng hp ng kh nng l: C154

C102 C52 30

C154
91

Vy : P(A1)

Do bin c A1 v A2 xung khc nn: P(A) P(A1) P(A 2)


b. Gi B l bin c

Gi C l bin c c 4 sn ph m tt: P(C)

40 30 10

91 91 13

C4
2
104
C15 13

Bin c C l bin c b ca bin c B nn: P(B) 1 P(C) 1

2 11

13 13

t l hng c 6 chnh ph m v 4 ph ph m. y ngu nhin ln lt t l


hng ra 2 sn ph m theo phng thc khng hon li. Tm xc sut ly c:
a. ai chnh ph m.
b.
t chnh ph m.
Bi lm
Gi Ai (i=1 hoc i=2) l bin c th i ly c chnh phm.
a. Gi A l bin c l

c hai chnh ph m

20

6 5 1

10 9 3
b. Gi B l bin c l c mt chnh ph m.
Gi Bi (i=1,2) l bin c th i ly c chnh ph m. B1 v B2 xung khc vi nhau
nn:
P(A) P(A1) P(A 2)

P(B) P(B1) P(B2)

6 4 4 6 8

10 9 10 9 15

a x th bn c lp vo mt mc tiu vi xc sut bn trng ch ln lt l


0.9; 0.8 v 0.7. y tnh xc sut ch c mt x th trng ch.
Bi lm
Gi A l bin c ch c mt x th bn trng.
Gi i (i 1,3) l bin c x th bn trng ln th i.
Theo u , ta c: 1 2 3 12 3 1 2 3
Do cc nhm bin c trn xung khc, nn
(A) ( 1 2 3 ) ( 1 2 3 ) ( 1 2 3 )
( 1 )( 2 )( 3 ) ( 1 )( 2 )( 3 ) ( 1 )( 2 )( 3 )
0.9 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.092

Quy tc cng tng qut

t lp hc c 100 sinh vin, trong c 60 sinh vin gii Ton, 70 sinh vin
gii nh vn v 40 sinh vin gii c hai mn Ton v nh vn. hn ngu nhin mt
sinh vin ca lp. Tm xc sut chn c sinh vin gii t nht mt trong hai mn
Ton hoc nh vn.
Bi lm
Gi A l bin c sinh vin gii t nht mt trong hai mn Ton hoc nh vn.
A1 l bin c sinh vin gii mn Ton, A2 l sinh vin gii mn Anh.
Do hai bin c trn khng xung khc, c phn giao nn:

( ) ( 1) ( 2) ( 1. 2)

60 70 40

0,9
100 100 100

t l hng c 6 chnh ph m v 4 ph ph m. y ngu nhin ln lt t l


hng ra hai sn ph m theo phng thc khng hon li. Tm xc sut ly c t
nht mt chnh ph m.
Bi lm
21

Gi A l bin c ly t nht mt chnh ph m.


Gi Ai (i=1 hoc i=2) l bin c th i ly c chnh ph m.
1
Xc sut ly c hai chnh ph m tnh VD 30 l:
3
Do cc bin c trn khng xung khc nn:
( ) ( 1 ) ( 2 ) ( 1 2 )

6 6 1 78

10 10 3 90

BI TP

ai ngi cng n khm bnh. Xc sut mc bnh tng ng l 0.01 v 0.03.


Tm xc sut :
a. t nht 1 ngi b bnh
b. khng qu 1 ngi b bnh.
Bi lm
a. Gi A l bin c c t nht mt ng
C khng b bnh.

bnh. Gi B, C ln lt l bin c ngi B,

Ta c:

(A) (BC) (BC) (BC) (B)(C) (B)(C) (B)(C)


0,01.0,03 0,01.0,97 0,99.0,03 0,0397
i b bnh.

b. Gi D l bin c c khng qu m
Ta li c:

(D) (BC) (BC) P(BC) (B)(C) (B)(C) P(B)P(C)


0.01 0.97 0.99 0.03 0.99 0.97 0.9997
: t ngi sao ua xe ch ua xe 2 chng trong mt ngy. Xc sut anh y thng
chng 1 l 0.7, xc sut anh y thng chng 2 l 0.6 v xc sut anh y thng c 2 chng l
0.5. Tm xc sut :
a.

nh y thng t nht 1 chng.

b.

nh y ch thng duy nht 1 chng.

c.

nh y khng thng c 2 chng.


Bi lm

a. Gi A l bin c
e thng t nht mt chng.
- Do cc bin c trn khng xung khc nn :

( ) ( 1 ) ( 2 ) ( 1. 2 ) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.8


b. Gi B l bin c anh y ch thng duy nht mt chng.
22

Theo yu cu bi, ta c: 1 2 12
Ta li c: A B A1.A2 T :

( ) () ( 1. 2 ) P(B) ( ) ( 1. 2 ) 0.8 0.5 0.3


c. Gi C l bin c anh y khng thng chng no.
Ta c:

C 1 2 1 2 (C) (1 2 ) 1 (1 2 ) 1 ((1 ) ( 2 ) (1 2 ))
1 (0, 7 0, 6 0,5) 0, 2

t ph ng khm iu tr cho 3 bnh nhn , , . Trong mt gi xc sut


mi bnh nhn b cp cu tng ng l 0.7; 0.6 v 0.5. Tm xc sut :
a) Trong mt gi khng ai cn cp cu.
b) Trong mt gi t nht 1 ngi cn cp cu.
c) Trong mt gi c 1 bnh nhn cn cp cu.
Bi lm
Gi i (i 1,3) l bin c trong mt gi bnh nhn th i phi cp cu.
a. Gi A l bin c trong mt gi khng ai c n cp cu.
-

Do khng ai phi cp cu nn:


() (12 3 ) (1 )(2 )(3 ) 0,3.0, 4.0,35 0,042

b. Gi B l bin c trong mt gi t nht m


-

i cp cu.

Ta c B v bin c A l hai bin b nn () 1 () 1 0,042 0,96

c. Gi C l bin c

i c n cp cu.

C 1 bnh nhn cn cp cu nn: C 1 2 3 12 3 1 2 3

Vy:

(C ) ( 1 2 3 ) ( 1 2 3 ) ( 1 2 3 )
( 1 )( 2 )( 3 ) ( 1 )( 2 )( 3 ) ( 1 )( 2 )( 3 )
0, 7.0, 4.0,35 0,3.0, 6.0,35 0,3.0, 4.0, 65 0, 239

Trong mt vng dn c t l ngi mc bnh tim l 9 , bnh huyt p l 12


v mc c hai bnh l 7 . hn ngu nhin mt ngi trog vng . Tm xc sut
ngi khng mc bnh no.
Bi lm
Gi

A l bin c khng mc bnh no.


A1 l bin c mc bnh tim.
A2 l bin c mc bnh huyt p.
23

Theo bi, tm xc sut ngi khng mc bnh no, vy ta c:

1 2 1 2
( ) P( 1 2 ) ( 1 2 ) 1 ( 1 2 ) 1 ( (1 ) ( 2 ) (1 2 ))
1 (0, 09 0,12 0, 07) 0,86

h tch hi ng qun tr tuyn b rng, c 50 cng ty s thu c li


nhun, 30 kh nng l h a vn, 20 l vn trong qu ti .
S dng quy tc cng tm xc sut cng ty s khng l vn trong qu ti.
S dng quy tc bin c b tm xc sut cng ty s khng l vn trong qu ti.
Bi lm
-

S dng quy tc cng : cng ty khng l vn trong qu ti, c th cng ty thu c li


nhun hoc cng ty ho vn. Vy xc sut cng ty khng l vn l:
50% 30% 80%
S dng quy tc bin c b: ta thy bin c cng ty l vn vi bin c cng ty khng
l vn b nhau. Vy xc sut cng ty khng l vn l: 100% 20% 80%

Gi s xc sut bn s nhn im
0.5. Tm xc sut bn nhn im ?

l 0.25 v xc sut ban s nhn im

Bi lm
-

i vi dng ton ny, ta gi d nh s trng hp nhn im ca bn ch l im


, im v im , ba im ny gi gn trong 1 n v.
Gi A, B, C ln lt l bin c bn s nhn c im A, B v C.
Ta c: P(A) P(B) P(C) 1
Khi xc sut bn nhn im C l: 1 0.5 0.25 0.25

Xc sut xy ra bin c v tng ng l 0.2 v 0.3. Xc sut


cng xy ra l 0.15. Tnh xc sut c t nht 1 bin c xy ra.

Bi lm
-

Gi S l bin c c t nht mt mt bin c A, B xy ra.


Do cc bin c trn khng xung khc nn

(S) ( ) (B) ( B)
0, 2 0,3 0,15 0,35
: ho (X) 0.55 v ( ) 0.35. Gi s xc sut 2 bin c xy ra ng
thi l 0.20. Tnh xc sut c t nht mt bin c xy ra. Gi s 2 bin c X v Y l
xung khc. Tnh xc sut chng xy ra ng thi
Bi lm
a. Gi A l bin c c t nht mt bin c X, Y xy ra .
Do cc bin c trn khng xung khc nn:
24

( ) ( X ) (Y ) ( XY )
0,55 0,35 0, 2 0, 7
b. Gi s X,Y l xung khc. Gi B l bin c X, Y x r

ng thi.

Vy () (Y) ()(Y) 0,55.0,35 0,1925

t nghin cu ca cng vin quc gia thy rng c 50 du khch s n


thm khu vc ni ellowstone, 40 s ving thm Tetons v 35 ving thm c hai
ni.
a. Xc sut mt du khch ving thm t nht mt trong nhng ni ny l bao nhiu?
b. 35

c gi l g?

c. Nhng bin c no l xung khc? Gii thch.


Bi lm
a. Gi A l bin c

t m r

- 1 l bin c du khch gh thm khu vc ni ellow stone.


-

2 l bin c du khch gh thm Tetons.

Do cc bin c trn khng xung khc nn

( ) ( 1 ) ( 2 ) ( 1 2 )
0,5 0, 4 0,35 0,55
b. S % c gi l ph n xc sut ca bin c giao ca bin c du khch gh
thm khu vc ni ellow stone v phn bin c du khch gh thm Tetons.
c. Bin c xung khc khng c v bin c gh thm ni Yellowstone v bin c du
khch gh thm Tetons ph thuc ln nhau c xc sut du khch gh thm 2
ni.

t ngn hng ni rng 80 khch hng vn duy tr ti khon, 60


hng c mt ti khan tit kim v 50 khch hng c c 2 yu t trn.

khch

a. Nu mt khch hng c chn la ngu nhin th xc sut khch hng hoc vn


duy tr ti khon hoc c mt ti khon tit kim l bao nhiu?
b. Xc sut khch hng khng duy tr ti khon hay khng c ti khon tit kim l
bao nhiu?
Bi lm
a. Gi A l bin c khch hng hoc vn duy tr ti khon hoc c mt ti khon tit
kim.
A1 l bin c khch hng duy tr ti khon.
A2 l bin c khch hng duy tr ti khon tit kim.
R rng cc bin c khng xung khc, nn:
25

( ) ( 1 ) ( 2 ) ( 1 2 )
0,8 0, 6 0,5 0,9
b. Gi B l bin c
. T

cu 4, c:

1 2 1 2
() ( 1 2 ) 1 ( 1 2 ) 1 ( ( 1 ) ( 2 ) (1 2 ))
1 0,9 0,1

60 khch du lch n Trung Quc i chi ieijng v 40 i chi


Xian, 30 khch i chi c ieijng v Xian. y tnh xc sut khch i chi t nht
mt trong cc a im trn.
Bi lm
-

Gi A l bin c khch i chi t nht mt trong cc a im trn


1 l bin c du khch i Bieijing.

2 l bin c du khch i Xian.

Do cc bin c trn khng xung khc nn

( ) ( 1 ) ( 2 ) ( 1 2 )
0, 6 0, 4 0,3 0, 7

t loi chewing gum mi c tc dng lm b ht thuc l. 60 nhng


ngi s dng loi chewing gum ny thnh cng trong vic b thuc l. y tnh xc sut
sao cho trong 4 ngi s dng loi chewing gum ny c t nht mt ngi b ht thuc l.
3.3.2 Quy tc nhn xc sut
Trng h

n c c lp:

V d 34: t ngi mua 3 loi c phiu khc nhau vi xc sut trong phin giao dch
ti cc loi c phiu ny ln gi tng ng l 1 3, 3 4 v 1 10. Tm xc sut trong
phin giao dch ti:
a. Tt c cc c phiu u ln gi.
b. Khng c c phiu no ln gi.
c. h c 1 c phiu ln gi.
d. h c 2 c phiu ln gi.
e. t nht 1 c phiu ln gi.
f. t nht 2 c phiu ln gi.
Bi lm
Gi i (i 1,3) l bin c c phiu th i ln gi.
a. Gi A l bin c tt c cc c phi

u ln gi. Vy ta c:
26

1 2 3
1 3 1
0, 025
3 4 10

Do cc bin c trn c lp tng i nn: ( ) (1 )(2 )(3 ) . .


b. Gi B l bin c khng c c phiu no ln gi.
12 3

Do cc bin c trn c lp tng i nn () (1 )(2 )(3 )

21 9
0,15
3 4 10

c. Gi C l bin c ch c mt c phiu ln gi
Theo , ta c: C 1 2 3 12 3 1 2 3
Suy ra:
(C) ( 1 2 3 ) ( 1 2 3 ) ( 1 2 3 )
( 1 )( 2 )( 3 ) ( 1 )( 2 )( 3 ) ( 1 )( 2 )( 3 )

11 9 23 9 21 1

0,542
3 4 10 3 4 10 3 4 10

d. Gi D l bin c ch c hai c phiu ln gi.


Vy: D 12 3 1 2 3 123
Do :
(D) ( 1 2 3 ) ( 1 2 3 ) ( 1 2 3 )
(D) ( 1 )( 2 )( 3 ) ( 1 )( 2 )( 3 ) ( 1 )( 2 )( 3 )
(D)

e.
f.

13 9 11 1 23 1

0, 283
3 4 10 3 4 10 3 4 10

Gi E l bin c c t nht mt c phiu ln gi.


Ta thy mt iu rng bin c E l bin c b ca bin c B.
Vi lp lun trn, ta c: () 1 () 0,85
Gi F l bin c c t nht hai c phiu ln gi.
Theo , ta c lp lun sau: C th c 2 c phiu ln gi hoc 3 c phiu ln gi.
Vy P(F) P(A) P(D) 0.025 0.283 0.308

t siu th lp 4 chung bo chy hot ng c lp vi nhau. Xc sut khi


c chy mi chung ku l 0,9. Tm xc sut c chung ku khi chy.
Bi lm
-

Gi A l bin c khi c xy ra chy th chung ku.


Vy l bin c khng c chung no ku khi chy v n l bin c b vi bin
c A.
Do ( ) 1 ( ) 1 0,14 0,9999
27


2 l hng, mi l cha 15 sn ph m, trong l I gm 10 sn ph m tt, 5
sn ph m xu; l 2 gm 8 sn ph m tt v 7 sn ph m xu. hn ngu nhin t mi l 2
sn ph m. Tnh xc sut trong 4 sn ph m chn ra c 2 sn ph m tt v 2 sn ph m
xu.
Bi lm
Gi A l bin c 2 sn ph m tt v 2 sn ph m xu.
Cc trng hp c m t trong bng sau:
L I
L II
S trng hp
thun li
Do ()

Trng hp 1
2 tt
2 xu

Trng hp 2
2 xu
2 tt

C102 C72

C52 C82

Trng hp 3
1 tt + 1 xu
1 tt + 1 xu

C110 C15 C18 C17

2
C10
C72 C52 C82 C110 C15 C17 C18
0,365
2
2
C15
C15

t hp cha ng 5 qu cu mu xanh, 3 qu cu mu en, 7 qu cu mu .


y ngu nhin 2 qu cu t hp. Tnh xc sut :
a. 2 u l mu .
b. 2 u c mu ging nhau.
Bi lm
a. Gi A l bin c c
.
- S trng hp thun li cho A l: C72 trng hp.
-

2
S trng hp ng kh nng l: C15
(v chn ngu nhin 2 trong 20 bn

chi).
-

Vy xc sut cn tm l: P(A)

C72 136
2
0.2
C15 190

b. Gi B l bin c c hai c mu ging nhau.


- Cc trng hp c th xy ra l cng mu xanh hoc cng mu hoc cng mu
en.
-

C52 C32 C72


Do : ()
0,324
2
C15

hi gieo mt con xc xc t nht trong bao nhiu ln vi xc sut ln hn


0.5 c th hy vng rng c t nht 1 ln c mt 6 chm.
Bi lm
-

Gi n l s ln t nht phi gieo con xc xc.


Gi A l bin c cn tm.

Gi A l bin c b ca bin c A.

5
Xc sut xut hin t nht mt ln mt 6 chm l: ( ) 1 P(A) 1
6

28

(*)

Theo , P(A) > 0.5, thay vo (*) ta gii


n

5
5
1 0.5 0.5
6
6

Do 0

5
1 v 0.5 > 0, nn tp nghim ca BPT trn l: log 5 0.5; ; vy cn phi
6
6

gieo t nht log 5 0.5 4 ln.


6

Gi s ( ) 0.4 v (

) 0.3. Tm xc sut kt hp (

).

Bi lm
Ta c: (.) () ( / A) 0.4 0.3 0.12

Gi s (X1) 0.75 v (

2/X1)

0.4. Tm (X1.Y2).

Bi lm
Ta c: (.) () ( / A) 0.75 0.4 0.3

t ngi tham gia u thu 2 d n. Kh nng trng thu d n th nht l


0.6. Nu trng thu d n th nht th kh nng trng thu d n th 2 tng ln 0.8; c n
nu khng trng thu d n th nht th kh nng trng thu d n th 2 ch c n l 0.2.
Tm xc sut ngi :
a. Trng thu c 2 d n.
b. h trng thu 1 d n.
c. Trng thu t nht 1 d n.
Bi lm
Gi i (i 1, 2) l bin c trng thu d n th i.
a. Gi A l bin c trng th u c hai d n.
12

Do cc bin c trn ph thuc A1 xy ra ri mi n A2 nn:


( ) ( 1 )( 2 / 1 ) 0, 6.0,8 0, 48

b. Gi B l bin c ch trng th u mt d n.
1 2 12

Do cc bin c trn ph thuc nhau nn:


() (1 )(2 / 1 ) (1 )(2 / 1 ) 0,6.0,2 0,4.0,2 0,2

c. Gi C l bin c trng th u t nht mt d n.


- V cc bin c trn khng xung khc nn:
() (1 ) (2 ) (12 ) 1 (1 )(2 / 1 ) 1 0,4.0,8 0,68

29


t l hng c 60 chnh ph m v 40
ln lt 2 sn ph m. Tm xc sut ly c:
a. Ly c 2 chnh ph m.
b. Ly c 1 chnh ph m.
c. Ly c t nht 1 chnh ph m.
Bi lm

ph ph m. y ngu nhin t l hng

Gi i (i 1, 2) l bin c ln th i ly c chnh phm.


a. Gi A l bin c l
-

c 2 chnh ph m.

Do cc bin c trn c lp nn:


( ) ( 1 )( 2 ) 0, 6.0, 6 0,36

b. Gi B l bin c l

c 1 chnh ph m.
1 2 12

Do bin c trn xung khc v c lp nn:


() (1 )(2 ) (1 )(2 ) 0,6.0, 4 0, 4.0,6 0, 48

c. Gi C l bin c ly t nht mt chnh ph m..


- trng hp ny, cc bin c trn khng xung khc nn:
(C) ( 1 ) ( 2 ) ( 1 2 ) 0, 6 0, 6 0,36 0,84

t sinh vin thi hai mn, lch s v ton hc. Xc sut anh ta qua mn lch s
l 0.6, v xc sut qua mn ton l 0.7. Xc sut qua c 2 mn l 0.5.
a. Tnh xc sut anh ta qua t nht 1 mn.
b. Tnh xc sut anh ta qua c 2 mn.
Bi lm
-

Gi A1 l bin c vt qua mn lch s.

Gi A2 l bin c vt qua mn ton.

a. Gi A l bin c t qua t nht mt mn.


-

Do cc bin c trn khng xung khc nn p dng cng thc cng tng qut, c:
( ) ( 1 ) ( 2 ) ( 1 2 ) 0, 6 0, 7 0,5 0,8

b. Gi B l bin c t qua c hai mn.


-

Do cc bin c trn c lp nn:


() ( 1 )( 2 ) 0, 6.0, 7 0, 42

BI TP
: rmco, mt cng ty sn xut h thng n giao thng, sau nhng ln th
nghim v tui th ca bng n nhn thy rng 95 ca cc h thng mi ko di 3
nm trc khi thay i tn hiu khng chnh xc.
30

a. Nu 1 thnh ph mua 4 h thng ny, xc sut c 4 hot ng chnh xc trong 3


nm l bao nhiu?
b. iu ny minh ha cho quy lut xc sut no?
c. S dng nhng ch ci i din cho 4 h thng. Vit ra phng trnh biu di n
cch m bn chn ra cu tr li phn a.
Bi lm
a. Nu 1 thnh ph mua 4 h thng ny, xc sut c 4 hot ng chnh xc trong 3
nm l : 0,95 0,81
4

b. iu ny minh ho cho quy lut xc sut c lp v vic mi h thng hot ng l


c lp vi nhau.
c. Gi A l bin c c 4 h thng hot ng chnh xc.
Gi i (i 1, 4) l bin c cc h thng th i hot ng tt trong 3 nm.
Ta c: 1 2 3 4
Suy ra: ( ) ( )1 ( 2 )( 3 )( 4 ) 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.81

Trong mt chng trnh thc tp qun l Claremont Emterprises, 80% hc


vin l n, 20% hc vin l nam. C 90% n tt nghip v 78 nam tt nghip .
a. Chn ngu nhin 1 hc vin. Tnh xc sut hc vin c chn l n v cha tt
nghip i hc.
b. Gii tnh v tt nghip i hc c c lp vi nhau khng ? Ti sao ?
c. Xy dng mt s cy hin th all xc sut, xc sut c iu kin, xc sut tch.
d. Tng cc xc sut tch c bng 1.00 khng ? Ti sao ?
Bi lm
a. Gi G l bin c n, gi B l bin c nam. Y
-

t nghi

i hc.

Gi A l bin c hc vin c chn l n v cha tt nghip i hc.

- Khi ta c: ( ) (G)(Y / G) 80% (100 90)% 0, 08


b. Gii tnh v tt nghip i hc khng c lp vi nhau m ph thuc. R rng, ta thy
vic t l hc i hc cao hay thp cng ph thuc vo gii tnh. N tt nghip cao
hn so vi nam (90% > 78%)

Gi s xc sut m mt chuyn bay nt k ca hng hng khng Northwest n


trong vng 15 pht so vi lch trnh l 0.9. Chng ta chn 4 chuyn bay n trong ngy
hm qua.
a. Tnh xc sut c 4 chuyn bay c chn n trong vng 15 pht so vi lch
trnh ?
b. Tnh xc sut khng chuyn bay no trong nhng chuyn bay c chn n
trong v ng 15 so vi lch trnh.
31

c. Tnh xc sut t nht mt trong nhng chuyn bay c chn khng n trong
v ng 15 so vi lch trnh ?
Bi lm
a. Gi A l bin c 4 chuy
c ch n trong vng 15 pht.
-

Gi i (i 1, 4) l bin c chuyn bay th i n trong vng 15 pht so vi lch


trnh.

V cc chuyn bay l c lp vi nhau nn ta c.

1. 2 .3 . 4
-

4
Do : ( ) ( 1).( 2).( 3).( 4) 0,9 0, 6561

b. Gi B l bin c khng c chuyn bay no trong nhng chuyn bay c chn n


trong vng 15 pht so vi lch trnh.
-

Cc chuyn bay l c lp vi nhau nn ta c:

12 34
-

4
4
Do : () (1 )(2 )(3 )(4 ) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 10

c. Gi C l bin c t nht mt chuyn c chn khng n trong vng 15 pht so vi


lch trnh. Khi l bin c b vi bin c A.

(C) 1 () 1 0,6561 0,3439

Cng ty quc t Kiddie Carts c 100 nhn vin. Trong 57 ngi l cng
nhan sn xut, 40 ngi l gim st vin, 2 ngi l th k, mt ngi l ch tch. Gi s
chn 01 nhn vin:
a. Tnh xc sut chn 01 nhn vin l cng nhn sn xut.
b. Tnh xc sut chn 01 nhn vin c chn ra l 1 cng nhn sn xut hoc mt gim
st vin.
c. Trong cu b, cc bin c ny c xung khc nhau khng ?
d. Tnh xc sut nhn vin c chn ra khgn phi l cng nhn sn xut, khng
phi l gim st vin.
Bi lm
a. Gi A l bn c chn mt nhn vin l cng nhn sn xut.
-

S trng hp thun li cho A l: C157

S trng hp ng kh nng l: C1100

C157
- T , tnh c: ( ) 1 0.57
C100

32

b. Gi B l bin c nhn vin chn ra l cng nhn sn xut hoc gim st vin.
-

S trng hp thun li cho A l: C157 C140

S trng hp ng kh nng l: C1100

- T , tnh c: (B)

C157 C140
0.97
C1100

c. cu b cc bin c ny l xung khc vi nhau do khi giao chng vi nhau th bng


rng.
d. Gi C l bin c nhn vin c chn ra khng phi l cng nhn sn xut cng khng
phi l gim st vin. Khi c th l 2 th k hoc ch tch, vy s trng hp
thun li l 3.

(C)

3
0.03
C1100

Xc sut mt tn la phng n ch trong bt k tnh hung no l 0.8. C 04


tn la cng phng ln vi cng im ch. Tnh xc sut :
a. Tt c u n ch
b. Khng mt tn la no n ch
c. t nht mt tn la n ch.
Bi lm
a. Gi A l bin c tt c tn l
-

Gi i (i 1, 4) l bin c tn la th i n ch.
Cc bin c 1, 2, 3, 4 l hngc lp do s n ch ca tn la ny
khng nh hng tn la khc.

Khi ta c: 1 2 3 4

Suy ra: ( ) ( )1 ( 2 )( 3 )( 4 ) 0.8 0.8 8 0.8 0.4096

b. Gi B l bin c khng c tn l
-

Ta c.

12 34
-

V mi tn la n ch l c lp vi nhau nn:

() (1 )(2 )(3 )(4 ) 0, 24 1,6 103


c. Gi C l bin c c t nht mt tn l

R rng, ta thy C l bin c b ca bin c B.

Suy ra: (C) 1 () 1 1, 6 103 0,9984


33


04 ngi c xem xt cho v tr trng i din cho cng ty. a ngi
trong s c tui trn 60, hai trong s l ph n, v ch duy nht mt ph n c tui
trn 60.
a. Tnh xc sut chn c 01 ngi ph n v trn 60 tui.
b. Nu gi s ngi c chn khng phi l ph n, tnh xc sut ngi c
tui i di 60.
c. Nu chn c 1 ngi trn 60 tui, tnh xc sut ngi c chn l ph
n.
Bi lm

T l ph ph m ca 1 nh my l 20%. Vy phi cho nh my sn xut t


nht l bao nhiu sn ph m vi kh nng ln n 95% l s c c t nht 1 chnh
ph m.
Bi lm
V d 44:
a. Gi A l bin c l
Ta c:

c vin bi trng
( )

b. Gi B l bin c l

l n 1.

6 7
7

13 12 26

c vin bi trng

l n 2 khi l

c vin bi trng.

V ln 1 ly c vin bi trng nn s bi trng cn li l 5 vin, do ly khng


hon li nn ta xem mi ln ly l c lp vi nhau. Khi
()

5
12

V d 46:
a. Gi A l bin c l
Khi

CD khng thuc loi tt.

gm a D c th s dng c v khng s dng c.

Do : ()
b.

112 31
0,143
1000

y ph

t, gi B l bin c

V bin c A xy ra ri mi n bin c B nn:


( / )

( ) 0, 031

0, 217
( )
0,143

V d 47:
Gi A l bin c s khch hng c loi bo ny.
Gi B l bin c s khch hng c v nh.
a. Gi C l bin c khch hng xem v nh qung co.
34

c.

V A v B l hai bin c ph thuc, bin c A xy ra trc mi n bin c B.


(C) () () 0,51

b. Gi D l bin c khch hng xem v khng nh qung co.


C (C) ( ) () 0, 6 0,15 0, 09
V d 48:
Gi i (i 1, 2) l bin c vt qua mn th i.
a. Gi A l bin c t qua c hai mn.
( ) ( 1 )( 2 / 1 ) 0.8 0.6 0, 48

b. Gi B l bin c t qua mn th hai.


Vy s c trng hp sau: t c mn th nht ri t c mn th hai, hoc
khng t mn th nht ri t mn th hai.

12 12
Suy ra:
() (12 ) (12 ) (1 )(2 / 1 ) (1 )(2 / 1) 0,8.0,6 0,2.0,3 0,54

c. Gi C l bin c t qua t nht mt mn.


-

Do cc bin c trn khng xung khc nn:


(C) ( 1 ) ( 2 ) ( 1 2 ) 0.8 0.54 0.48 0.86

d. Gi D l bin c khng t yu c u c hai mn.


C:
(D) (1 )(2 / 1 ) 0.2 0.7 0,14

V d 49:
a. Gi A l bin c s i hon tt kho hc.
Gi B l bin c s ngi thnh ngi bn hng c hiu qu m hon thnh kho hc.
Gi C l bin c thc tp m khng hon tt kha hc.
Gi D l bin c cn tm
Do cc bin c trn ph thuc nn, ta c:
(D) ( ) () ( ) (C) 0,85.0, 6 0,15.0,1 0,525

b. Gi E l xc xu
i ny hon thnh kho th c tp v
bn hng c hiu qu.
Khi
( )

u kin l m

(hoan.tat.khoa.hoc)(hieu.qua.tham.du.het.khoa.hoc) P(A)P(B) 0,85.0, 6

0,97
(tham.du.co.hieu.qua)
P(D)
0,525

BI TP
Bi tp 2
a. Gi A l bin c 2 sn ph m tt v 2 sn ph m xu.
c trng hp c m t trong bng sau:
Trng hp 1
Trng hp 2
L I
2 tt
2 xu
L II
2 xu
2 tt
35

Trng hp 3
1 tt + 1 xu
1 tt + 1 xu

S trng hp
thun li
Do ()

C102 C72

C52 C82

C110 C15 C18 C17

2
C10
C72 C52 C82 C110 C15 C17 C18
0,365
2
2
C15
C15

b. Gi B l bin c ch c 1 sn ph m tt, 1 sn ph m xu t l I vi iu
kin chn c 2 sn ph m tt v 2 sn ph m xu. Khi :
C1 C1 C1 C71
10 5 8 7
() 102 5 2 8

0,0263
C15 C15 () 105 105 0,365

Bi tp 3:
Bi lm
a. Gi D l bin c
c bi.
Gi A, B, C ln lt l cc bin c SV , , lm c bi.
-

Ta thy cc nhm bin c trn xung khc v c lp tng i mt nn:


(D) (C) (C) (C) ()()(C) ()()(C) ()()(C)
0,8.0,7.0, 4 0,8.0,3.0,6 0, 2.0,7.0,6 0, 452

b. Gi E l bin c sinh vin


Khi : (E)

khng lm c bi khi c 2 sinh vin lm c bi.

( )()(C) 0.2 0.7 0.6

0.186
(D)
0.452

Bi tp 4:
Bi lm
Gi A l bin c ly c t nht mt sn ph m loi B trong 5 sn ph m ngu
nhin t 40 sn ph m cn li. Khi A l bin c b ca bin c A l chn c c 5 sn
ph m u l loi A trong 40 sn ph m cn li.
S trng hp thun li cho A l C530
( )

C305
0, 216
5
C40

Suy ra: ( ) 1 ( ) 1 0, 216 0, 784


Bi tp 5:
Bi lm
-

Gi i (i 1,3) l bin c ngi th i bn trng con th.

Gi A l bin c con th b trng mt vin n.


Do cc nhm bin c trn xung khc v c lp tng i nn:

36

() (1 2 3 ) (12 3 ) (1 2 3 ) (1 )(2 )(3 ) (1 )(2 )(3 ) (1 )( 2 )(3 )


0, 4.0,5.0,3 0,6.0,5.0,3 0,6.0,5.0,7 0,36

Kh nng tng ngi bn trng con th:


( 1 / )

( 1 ) 0.4 0.5 0.3

0.167
( )
0.36

( 2 / )

( 2 ) 0.6 0.5 0.3

0.25
( )
0.36

( 3 / )

( 3 ) 0.6 0.5 0.7

0.583
( )
0.36

Khi ta chia tht cho mi ngi theo t l: 0.167 : 0.25 : 0.583


V d 51:
Gi A1, A2, A3 ln lt l bin c ly c cy vit ca PX1, PX2, PX3. A l bin c
mua c cy vit xu:
Theo cng thc xc sut y :
( ) ( 1 )( / 1 ) ( 2 )( / 2 ) ( 3 )( / 3 ) 0.5 0.01 0.3 0.02 0.2 0.03 0.017

V d 52:
Gi A1, A2 ln lt l bin c ly c cc chnh phm ca l 1, 2.
a. Gi A l bin c l

c 2 chnh ph m

Theo cng thc xc sut y : Ti v chia ra hai l, nn xc sut mi l l 50%, c th


v s cy thy iu ny.
C62
C72
() (1 )( / 1 ) (2 )( / 2 ) 50% 2 50% 2 0, 4
C10
C10

b. Gi B l bin c l

c 1 chnh ph m

Theo cng thc xc sut y :


() (1 )( / 1 ) (2 )( / 2 ) 50%

C16C14
C17 C13

50%

0.5
2
2
C10
C10

V d 53:
Gi A1 l bin c ly c 2 sn ph m ca l 1.
Gi A2 l bin c ly c 2 sn ph m ca l 2.
Gi A3 l bin c ly c 1 sn ph m ca l 1 v 1 sn ph m ca l 2.
a) Gi A l bin c ly c 2 chnh ph m.
Theo cng thc xc sut y :

37

( ) ( 1 )( / 1 ) ( 2 )( / 2 ) ( 3 )( / 3 )

C22 C62 C102 C72 C21C101 6 7

2
0, 4505
C122 C102 C122 C102
C12 10 10

b) Gi B l bin c ly c 1 chnh ph m.
Theo cng thc xc sut y :
() ( 1 )( / 1 ) ( 2 )( / 2 ) ( 3 )( / 3 )

1
C22 C61C41 C102 C71C31 C21C10
63
47

) 0, 4657
C122 C102
C122 C102
C122 10 10 10 10

V d 54:
VN

P(VN/T)=10%
Tt
P(T)=70%

Xu

TN
VN

P(TN/T)=90%
P(VN/X)=40%

P(X)=30%
TN

P(TN/X)=60%

a. Xc su
i vay thuc loi tt v tr n
P TN / T P(T)(TN / T) 0.7 0.1 0.07
-

Xc sut ngi vay thuc loi tt v v n


P VN / T P(T)(VN / T) 0.7 0.9 0.63

Xc sut ngi vay thuc loi xu v tr n


P TN / X P(X)(TN / X) 0.3 0.6 0.18

Xc sut ngi vay thuc loi xu v v n


P VN / X P(X)(VN / X) 0.3 0.4 0.12

b. Gi A l bin c v n c a mt khch hng c a qu tn dng


P A P(T)(A / T) P(X)P(A / X) 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.19
-

Kh nng ngi n vay v n l ngi tt


P(TVN) P(T)P(VN / T) 0.07
P(T / VN)

37%
P(VN)
P(VN)
0.19
Kh nng ngi n vay v n l ngi tt
P(XVN) P(X)P(VN / X) 0.12
P(T / VN)

63%
P(VN)
P(VN)
0.19

V d 55:
a.

c trng hp c th c, c th ln mt ly c bi tt, ln 2 bi xu hoc ln 1 bi


xu v ln 2 bi xu. Vy:
38

Gi A l bin c cn tm

5 4 4 3
P(A) 0.44444
9 8 9 8
b. c trng hp c th c, TTT hoc XTT hoc XXT
Gi B l bin c cn tm c:
4 3 2 5 4 3 5 4 4
P(B) . . . . . . 0.33
9 8 7 9 8 7 9 8 7
V d 56:
Theo cng thc xc sut Bayes ta c xc sut cy vit do PX1 sn xut l:
( 1 )( / 1 ) 0.5 0.01
( 1 / )

0.29
( )
0.017

V d 57:
Gi A l xc sut b t l ngi vay tt, vy: P(A)

0.7 0.9
0.7778
0.7 0.9 0.3 0.6

V d 58:
Theo cng thc Bayes xc sut 2 chnh ph m thuc l 1 l:

C62
50% 2
C10
( 1 )( / 1 )
( 1 / )

0.42
( )
0.4
V d 59:
Theo cng thc Bayes ta c:

1 15
.
( 1 )( / 1 ) 66 45
( 1 / )

0, 01121
( )
0, 4505
Bi 7, trang 14
Gi n l s sn ph m m cng ty sn xut ra. Gi A l bin c sn xut c t nht
01 chnh ph m, vy A l bin c i ca bin c A, khng c chnh ph m no.

P(A) 1 P(A) 0.95


P(A) 0.05
0.2n 0.05
Vy n t nht phi bng 2 (n = 2) th tha ycbt.
BI TP
Bi tp 1.
Gi A1 l bin c ly c 2 chi tit loi 1.
Gi A2 l bin c ly c 2 chi tit loi 2.
Gi A3 l bin c ly c 1 chi tit loi 1 v 1 chi tit loi 2.
a) Gi A l bin c sau 1 nm khng c chi tit no b hng.
Theo cng thc y ta c:

39

( ) ( 1 )( / 1 ) ( 2 )( / 2 ) ( 3 )( / 3 )
C32
C31C21
C22
2 0,9.0,9 2 0,8.0,8 2 0,9.0,8 0, 739
C5
C5
C5
b) Gi B l bin c sau 1 nm c 1 chi tit b hng.
() ( 1 )( / 1 ) ( 2 )( / 2 ) ( 3 )( / 3 )

C32
C31C21
C22
2.0,1.0,9

2.0,
2.0,8

(0,9.0, 2 0,1.0,8) 0, 242


C52
C52
C52

Gi C l bin c chi tit b hng l loi 2.


Theo cng thc Bayes ta c:

(C / )

0,1.2.0,8.0, 2 0, 6.0,9.0, 2
0, 4783
0, 242

Bi tp 2.
Gi A1 l bin c mua c 2 sn ph m ca dy chuyn 1.
Gi A2 l bin c mua c 2 sn ph m ca dy chuyn 2.
Gi A3 l bin c mua c 1 sn ph m ca dy chuyn 1 v 1 sn ph m ca dy chuyn
2.
a) Gi A l bin c mua c 2 chnh ph m.
Theo cng thc y ta c:
( ) ( 1 )( / 1 ) ( 2 )( / 2 ) ( 3 ) ( / 3 )

1
1
1
0,98.0,98 0,97.0,97 0,98.0,97 0,951
1
4
2
b) Gi B l bin c mua c 1 chnh ph m.
() ( 1 )( / 1 ) ( 2 )( / 2 ) ( 3 )( / 3 )
1
1
1
2.0,98.0, 02 2.0,97.0, 03 (0,98.0, 03 0,97.0, 02) 0, 04875
4
4
2
Bi tp 3.
Gi A1 l bin c sn ph m c kim tra l ph ph m.
Gi A2 l bin c sn ph m c kim tra l chnh ph m.
a) Gi A l bin c sn ph m c kt lun l chnh ph m.
Theo cng thc xc sut y .
( ) ( 1 )( / 1 ) ( 2 ) ( / 2 )

0, 05.0, 01 0,95.0,9 0,8555


Theo cng thc Bayes ta c t l ph ph m trn th trng l:

( 1 / )

( 1 )( / 1 )
0, 00058
( )

c. Theo cng thc Bayes,t l chnh ph m b loi l:

(2 / )

( 2 )( / 1 )
0,95.0,1

0, 6574
1 0,8555
( )

c) Gi B l t l sai st ca chic my.


Theo cng thc xc sut y .
40

() ( 1 )( / 1 ) ( 2 )( / 2 )
0, 05.0, 01 0,95.0,1 0, 0955
Bi tp 4.
Gi A1 l bin c ly c chai ru loi A.
Gi A2 l bin c ly c chai ru loi B.
Gi A l bin c 3 ngi kt lun chai ru loi
Theo cng thc xc sut y .

v 1 ngi kt lun chai ru loi B.

( ) ( 1 )( / 1 ) ( 2 )( / 2 )

( 1 ) ( 2 ) 0,5
3
3
1
3
Do ( ) 0,5.C4 .0,8 .0, 2 0,5.C4 .0,8.0, 2 0, 2176

Theo cng thc Bayes t l chai ru ly ra ng chai ru A l:

( 1 / )

( 1 )( / 1 ) 0,5.0, 4096

0,941
( )
0, 2176

Bi tp 5.
Gi A1 l bin c ly c 1 sn ph m ca l 1.
Gi A2 l bin c ly c 1 sn ph m ca l 2.
a) Gi A l bin c ly c ph ph m.
Theo cng thc xc sut y :
( ) ( 1 )( / 1 ) ( 2 ) ( / 2 )

0,5.0, 2 0,5.0,3 0, 25
Xc sut ly c ph ph m t l 1 l:
( 1 )( / 1 ) 0,5.0, 2
( 1 / )

0, 4
( )
0, 25
b) Gi B l bin c t l cn li ly c ph ph m.
Theo cu a) xc sut ph ph m t l 2 l 1-0,4=0,6

41

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