BAI GIANG - Financial Invesment

u t ti chnh
(Fianancial Analysis)
Trn Tun Vinh
Ti liu tham kho
Fundementals of investments: valuation and management, second edition, Charles J.Corrado

and Bradford D.Jodan
Securities analysis, Benjamin Graham and David L. Dodd
The intelligent investor, Benjamin Graham
C phiu thng, li nhun phi thng (common stock and uncommon profits), Philip A.
Fisher
Kim tin bng cch u t chng khon (How to make money in stocks), William J. ONeil
Hn tuyt ln (the SnowBall)
Phong cch u t Warren Buffett, Robert G. Hagstrom
B quyt u t v kinh doanh chng khon ca t ph Warren Buffett v Goerge Soros,
Mark Tier
o ca Warren Buffett, Mary Buffett and David Clark
Bo co ti chnh di gc nhn ca Warren Buffett, Mary Buffett and David Clark
Quy tc s 1, Phil Town
The theory of investment value, John Burr Williams
Trn Tun Vinh
Chng 1: tng quan v u t ti chnh

1.
2.
3.
4.
Khi nim u t ti chnh

Cc loi hnh u t ti chnh
Quy trnh u t ti chnh
Cc phng php phn tch u t
Trn Tun Vinh
Khi nim
nh ngha u t ca Benjamin Graham v David Dodd: u t l mt hot
ng da trn s phn tch cn thn, ha hn s an ton hp l v mang v mt khon
li nhun tho ng (An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis,
promise safety of principal and a satisfactory return p54, Security Analysis,
Benjamin Graham & David Dodd)
u t, trong ti chnh, l vic giao dch cc sn phm ti chnh hay nhng loi
hnh c gi tr khc vi mong mun thu v khon li nhun hp l trong tng lai. Mt
cch chung chung, u t c ngha l s dng tin vi hy vng lm ra tin nhiu hn.
(Invesment, in finance, the purchase of a financial product or other item of value with
an expectation of favorable future return. In general terms, investment means the use
money in the hope of making more money, InvestorWords)
Theo quan im ca ngui vit: u t ti chnh l mt k hoch, theo nh u

t s dng ngun vn nhn ri giao dch cc cng c ti chnh ph hp, da trn s
phn tch cn thn, vi mt mc chp nhn ri ro hp l thu v mt khon li
nhun tho ng nhm t c mc tiu ti chnh ca mnh.
Trn Tun Vinh
Cc loi hnh u t ti chnh
u t c phiu (Equities): c phiu ph thng (common stock) v c phiu

u i (preferred stock)
u t cc cng c tr li (interest_bearing): cc cng c trn tr trng

tin t (money market instruments), chng khon c thu nhp c nh (fixedincome securities) ch yu l tri phiu (bond).
Chng khon phi sinh v cc loi hnh u t khc

1. Hp ng quyn chn
2. Hp ng tng lai
3. u t vn t nhn (Private Equity)
4. Tham gia qu u c (Hedge Fund)
5. u t vng v ngoi t
6. u t cc sn phm ti chnh lin quan n BS
Trn Tun Vinh
Quy trnh u t
Xc nh mc tiu u t: li nhun v ri ro
Xc nh cng c u t ph hp
Xc nh t l phn b ti sn u t (asset allocation)
Tm hiu cc quy nh ca php lut v u t
Tm kim c hi u t
Phn tch c hi u t
D on th trng (market timing)
Gii ngn
Theo di cc khon u t v cht li hay ct l
Trn Tun Vinh
Cc phng php phn tch u t
Phn tch c bn: thao tc trn cc thng tin kinh t, thng tin ca doanh
nghip v quan tm ti
1. Tr li cu hi ti sao?
2. C phiu tt hay c phiu xu?
Phn tch k thut: thao tc trn gi v khi lng giao dch v quan tm ti
1. Tr li cu hi nh th no
2. C phiu tng gi v c phiu gim gi
Phn tch nh lng: s dng cc m hnh ton hc d on cc yu t v

m, doanh thu, li nhun, gi c phiu ca cng ty
Trn Tun Vinh
Chng 2: u t c phiu
1.
Phn tch nn kinh t
2.
Phn tch ngnh
3.
Phn tch cng ty
4.
nh gi c phiu
Trn Tun Vinh
Gii hn ni dung
Bi ging ch tp trung vo phn tch c phiu ph thng (common stock).
Hc vin nn nghin cu m rng nhng ni dung v phn tch c phiu

u i
Trn Tun Vinh
u t c phiu
1.
Mua cng ty tt/tuyt vi
2.
Vi mc gi r/hp l
3.
Nm gi trong mt khong thi gian hp l

a. Bn tm thi
b. Bn lun
Trn Tun Vinh
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Cc m hnh phn tch c bn
M hnh Top-Down
M hnh Bottom-Up
Trn Tun Vinh
11
M hnh top_down
A. p dng: khi ngui phn tch ch trng yu t nn kinh t v ngnh, nu
2 yu t ny khng n s khng u t; t chc p dng
B. Cch phn tch:
Hng phn tch
Nn
kinh t
Ngnh
Cng ty
Trn Tun Vinh
12
M hnh bottom_up
A. p dng: ch trng u tin n vic tm kim cc c phiu di gi tr;
thch hp vi cc nh u t c nhn.
B. Cch phn tch:
Hng phn tch
Nn
kinh t
Ngnh
Cng ty
Trn Tun Vinh
13
Phn tch nn kinh t
1.
Mc tiu ca phn tch nn kinh t
2.
Mi trng u t
3.
Phn tch cc yu t kinh t v m quan trng
4.
Cc c s phn tch v d bo th trng
Trn Tun Vinh
14
Mc tiu ca phn tch nn kinh t
Gip cc nh u t ra quyt nh trong vic phn b vn gia cc quc

gia
Phn b t trng cc cng c u t trong t quc gi
Thy c nhng thun li v kh khn ca mi trng u t ti mi

quc gia.
Tm thy c nhng ngnh hng li nhiu nht trong bi cnh v m

hin ti v tng lai
Thy c s nh hng ca yu t v m n TTCK

Trn Tun Vinh
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Mi trng u t
Mi trng u t l tng th cc yu t kinh t, x hi, vn

ho, php lut, ti chnh, c s h tng nh hng trc tip hoc gin
tip ti hot ng u t ca nh u t.
Trn Tun Vinh
16
Phn tch cc yu t kinh t v m quan trng

Phn tch din bin trong qu kh v hin ti, t a ra cc d bo
trong tng li cc yu t v m sau:
Cc ch s v m, gm: GDP, lm pht, tht nghip, t gi, li sut, n
cng, n xu, ICOR, u t (FDI, FII, ODA, u t Chnh ph, u t khu vc
t nhn), tiu dng, ngn sch, xut nhp khu, BOP
1.
Cc chnh sch v php lut: chnh sch tin t, chnh sch ti kho,
chnh sch thu ht vn u t, cc vn bn php lut mi
2.
Li sng x hi (Lifestyles): cch sng, cch lm vic, tiu dng, gio

dc, vui chi gii tr
3.
4.
Xu hng v cng ngh

Trn Tun Vinh
17
Phn tch ngnh

1. Mc tiu ca phn tch ngnh
2. Cc tiu ch phn ngnh
3. Cc m hnh phn tch ngnh
Trn Tun Vinh
18
Mc tiu phn tch ngnh

Mc tiu phn tch:
1. Chn la nhng ngnh tt u t
2. Bit c tnh hnh ca ngnh v d bo tc pht trin ca nhng
ngnh ny trong tng lai.
Cc bc thc hin t mc tiu:
1. Chn la ngnh u t: da trn hai tiu ch
- Tc tng trng bnh qun ca ngnh so vi tc tng trng
ca GDP:
+ Phn loi ngnh
+ Thng k tc tng trng ngnh (t nht 5 nm) v tnh
bnh qun theo trng s.
+ So snh tc tng trng bnh qun vi tc tng
trng GDP d bo phn trn v chn ra nhng ngnh c tc tng
trng cao hn.
Trn Tun Vinh
19
Mc tiu phn tch ngnh (tt)

- Mc tng thch ca ngnh vi giai on hin ti ca nn kinh
t: trn c s cc ngnh va c chn ra tiu ch u, xem xt chn ra
nhng ngnh c kh nng thch nghi v pht trin trong giai on nn kinh t
hin ti.
2. Bit c tnh hnh ca ngnh v d bo tc pht trin ca nhng
ngnh ny trong tng lai.
- S dng m hnh Michael Porter phn tch tnh hnh ca ngnh
- Da trn kt qu phn tch v kt qu ca bc 1, a ra d on
cui cng v tc pht trin ca ngnh trong tng lai.
Trn Tun Vinh
20
Cc tiu ch phn ngnh
Da vo cc h thng phn ngnh ln gm: ISIC (LHQ), NAICS (M),

UK SIC (Anh), ICB ( ca Dow Jones v FTSE), GICS (ca Morgan
Stanley v Standard&Poors), VSIC 2007 (Vit Nam)
Da vo hot ng kinh doanh chnh ca cng ty. Hot ng kinh doanh

chnh l hot ng mang li doanh thu ch yu cho cng ty trong mt thi
gian di.
Trn Tun Vinh
21
ISIC: International Standard Industrial Classification
Trn Tun Vinh
22
VSIC 2007
Cp 1
Tn ngnh
NNG NGHIP, LM NGHIP V THU SN
KHAI KHONG
SN XUT V PHN PHI IN, KH T, NC NNG, HI NC V IU HO KHNG KH
CUNG CP NC; HOT NG QUN L V X L RC THI, NC THI
XY DNG
BN BUN V BN L; SA CHA T, M T, XE MY V XE C NG C KHC
VN TI KHO BI
DCH V LU TR V N UNG
THNG TIN V TRUYN THNG
HOT NG TI CHNH, NGN HNG V BO HIM
HOT NG KINH DOANH BT NG SN
HOT NG CHUYN MN, KHOA HC V CNG NGH
HOT NG HNH CHNH V DCH V H TR
HOT NG CA NG CNG SN, T CHC CHNH TR - X HI, QUN L NH NC, AN NINH QUC PHNG; BO M X HI BT
BUC
GIO DC V O TO
Y T V HOT NG TR GIP X HI
NGH THUT, VUI CHI V GII TR
HOT NG DCH V KHC
HOT NG LM THU CC CNG VIC TRONG CC H GIA NH, SN XUT SN PHM VT CHT V DCH V T TIU DNG CA H
GIA NH
HOT NG CA CC T CHC V C QUAN QUC T
21
Trn Tun Vinh
23
Trn Tun Vinh
24
Trn Tun Vinh
25
Trn Tun Vinh
26
Tham kho phn ngnh ti HOSE
Nguyn tc phn ngnh
Danh sch phn ngnh 2011
Trn Tun Vinh
27
Cc m hnh phn tch ngnh
M hnh Michael Porter
M hnh SWOT
Trn Tun Vinh
28
Vi nt v Michael Porter
-Nm
sinh: 1947
Porter l Gio s tn tui ln trong lnh vc

chin lc cnh tranh; L gio s chnh thc ca i
hc Kinh doanh Harvard; ng c nhng ng gp
tch cc trong lnh vc kinh doanh ca nc M ni
ring, v th gii ni chung.
-Michael
tc gi ca 17 cun sch v hn 125 bi bo v chin

lc cnh tranh v pht trin kinh t.
-L
Trn Tun Vinh
29
M hnh Michael E.Porter
Trn Tun Vinh
30
Mc tiu phn tch

Mc tiu ca vic phn tch ngnh theo m hnh MP l nhm tm ra nhng
yu t cng nh mc nh hng ca cc yu t ny n:
Li nhun v doanh thu ca ngnh
Kh nng pht trin ca ngnh trong tng lai
Trn Tun Vinh
31
Ro cn gia nhp ngnh

Hin ti ngnh bn ang phn tch ang c nhng ro cn no ngn chn
cc DN khc xm nhp vo (lu : khng nht thit mt ngnh lc no cng
c ro cn)?
a.
Li th kinh t t quy m ln
D bit ha sn phm
Kh nng tip cn cc knh phn phi
Yu cu v vn
Chi ph chuyn i
Chnh sch ca chnh ph

Trn Tun Vinh
32
Ro cn gia nhp ngnh

b. Kh nng xuyn thng nhng ro cn ny l cao hay thp?
c. V ci gi h phi tr khi h thm nhp vo ngnh ca bn ang phn tch

l nh th no?
d. iu ny nh hng nh th no i vi doanh thu v li nhun ca cc
doanh nghip trong ngnh
Trn Tun Vinh
33
Kh nng p gi ca khch hng

a.
Khch hng mua sn phm ca ngnh bn ang phn tch l ai?
b.
c im ca cc khch hng ny l g?
c.
p lc ca h to ra cho ngnh nh th no?
d.
iu ny nh hng nh th no n doanh thu, li nhun v kh nng

pht trin ca ngnh trong tng lai?
Trn Tun Vinh
34
c im ca cc khch hng ny l g?
Ngi mua c tnh tp trung cao hoc mua khi lng hng ha chim t trng ln
trong tng doanh s ca cc DN trong ngnh hay khng?
Sn phm m ngi mua mua c chim t trng ln trong tng chi ph ca h hay
khng?
SP ca ngnh bn ang phn tch c tnh d bit ho cao i vi ngi mua hay
khng?
Ph chuyn i khi ngi mua khng mun s dng sn phm ca ngnh na l
cao hay thp?
Li nhun ca khch hng khi mua sn phm ca ngnh l cao hay thp?
Nguy c e do khng tiu th sn phm ca ngnh t pha khch hng l cao hay
thp?
Tm quan trng ca sn phm i vi cht lng sn phm/ dch v ca ngi
mua nh th no?
Mc hiu bit thng tin ca ngi mua v sn phm ca ngnh nh th no?
Trn Tun Vinh
35
Kh nng p gi ca nh cung cp
a.
Hin ti, ngnh ang phn tch c nhng nh cung cp no?
b.
c im ca cc nh cung cp ny ra sao?
c.
p lc ca cc nh cung cp to ra cho ngnh nh th no?
d.
iu ny nh hng nh th no n doanh thu, li nhun v kh nng

pht trin ca ngnh trong tng lai?
Trn Tun Vinh
36
c im ca cc nh cung cp ny ra sao?
Nh cung cp c phi l mt hoc mt s cng ty thng tr v c tnh tp trung

cao khng?
Sn phm ca nh cung cp c phi cnh tranh vi cc sn phm thay th no

khng?
Cc DN trong ngnh bn ang phn tch khng phi l khch hng quan trng
ca nh cung cp, ng khng?
Sn phm ca nh cung cp c phi l sp u vo quan trng ca ngnh bn

phn tch khng?
Sn phm ca nh cung cp c tnh c trng khc bit g gy ra chi ph

chuyn i ln hay khng?
Nh cung cp c kh nng tch hp vi cc doanh nghip trong ngnh bn ang

phn tch hay khng
Trn Tun Vinh
37
Mc tc ng ca sn phm thay th
Hin ti, ngnh bn ang phn tch c nhng sn phm thay th no?
Sn phm ca ngnh v sn phm thay th c s khc bit g?
Sn phm thay th tc ng nh th no i vi sn phm ca ngnh?
iu ny nh hng n doanh thu, li nhun v kh nng pht trin ca

ngnh nh th no?
Trn Tun Vinh
38
Mc cnh tranh trn th trng (trong

ngnh)
Cng cnh tranh gia cc DN trong ngnh bn phn tch nh th no
(cao hay thp, nhanh hay chm)?
a.
iu ny nh hng nh th no n doanh thu, li nhun v trin vng

pht trin ca cc DN trong ngnh?
b.
Trn Tun Vinh
39
Cng cnh tranh gia cc DN trong ngnh bn phn tch nh

th no (cao hay thp, nhanh hay chm)?
S lng v qui m ca cc DN trong ngnh: 1. Ngnh bn ang phn tch hin

c bao nhiu DN tham gia? 2. Quy m ca cc doanh nghip ny nh th no? 3.
iu ny nh hng nh th no n cng cnh tranh ca cc doanh nghip
trong ngnh?
Tc c v kh nng tng trng ca mt ngnh: 1. Tc tng trng hin ti

ca ngnh l bao nhiu? Con s ny cao hay thp? 2. Ngnh ang giai on
no ca qu trnh tng trng (mi hnh thnh, tng trng nhanh hay sp bo
ho)? 3. iu ny nh hng nh th no n cng cnh tranh ca cc
doanh nghip trong ngnh?
nh ph hoc chi ph lu kho cao: 1. T trng nh ph trn tng chi ph ca cc

doanh nghip trong ngnh cao hay thp? 2. Sn phm ca cc doanh nghip
trong ngnh c chu chi ph lu khng? V chi ph ny cao hay thp? 3. iu
ny nh hng nh th no n cng cnh tranh ca cc doanh nghip trong
ngnh?
Trn Tun Vinh
40

Cng sut tng nhanh thng qua u t ln: 1. Mc p dng khoa hc k thut ca
ngnh nh th no? 2. Tc gia tng sn lng ca ngnh ra sao? 3. iu ny nh
hng nh th no n cng cnh tranh ca cc doanh nghip trong ngnh?

Tnh c trng ha sn phm v chi ph chuyn i: 1. sn phm ca ngnh c tnh d
bit hoc chi ph chuyn i cao hay khng? 2. iu ny nh hng nh th no n
cng cnh tranh ca cc doanh nghip trong ngnh?
Trn Tun Vinh
41

Hng ro rt khi ngnh: 1. cc doanh nghip mun rt khi ngnh d hay
kh? 2. H s b cn tr bi yu t no khi quyt nh rt ra khi ngnh? 3. iu ny
nh hng nh th no n cng cnh tranh ca cc doanh nghip trong ngnh?
Mc quyt tm t thnh cng ca cc doanh nghip trong ngnh: 1. Cc
doanh nghip i din trong ngnh m bn ang phn tch c quyt tm ln thnh
cng trong ngnh ny hay khng? 2. Cc quyt tm ny th hin ra bn ngoi bng
nhng hnh ng nh th no? 3. iu ny nh hng nh th no n cng
cnh tranh ca cc doanh nghip trong ngnh?
Trn Tun Vinh
42
Phn tch cng ty

1.
Phn tch phi ti chnh
2.
Phn tch ti chnh
Trn Tun Vinh
43
Phn tch phi ti chnh

Cng ty tt l cng ty c:
Sn phm hoc dch v tt
H thng kinh doanh tt
Trn Tun Vinh
44
Sn phm hoc dch v tt?
C nt c th ring (hnh thc hoc chc nng) lm cho khch hng d

nhn bit
C kh nng cnh tranh cao vi cc doanh nghip cng ngnh: th phn v

li th
Th trng tim nng trong tng lai khng b thu hp: xu hng s dng
sn phm ca khch hng thu hp, n nh hay thu hp?
Trn Tun Vinh
45
Sn phm hoc dch v c tnh c th
Tnh c th l g?
Ti sao cn phi c tnh c th?
Tnh c th ca mt sn phm hay dch v phn nh qua nhng yu t

no?
Trn Tun Vinh
46
Kh nng canh tranh
Kh nng cnh tranh l g?
Ci g lm cho mt sn phm c kh nng cnh tranh cao?
Kh nng cnh tranh ca mt sn phm th hin qua yu t no?
Trn Tun Vinh
47
Moat_Li th cnh tranh

Nm li th cnh tranh
STT
Loi li th
nh ngha
Thng hiu
Sn phm bn sn sng tr nhiu hn bi v bn

tin tng vo cht lng ca n
B quyt
Mt cng ty c bng sng ch hoc b quyt kinh

doanh
Ph s dng
Mt cng ty c kh nng khng ch th trng s

cho php h c th thu ph t nhng ngi cn
dch v hoc sn phm
S chuyn i
Mt cng ty s hu sn phm m khi khch hng

chuyn i qua s dng sn phm khc s tn
km rt nhiu chi ph
Gi c
Gi c ca sm phm mc rt thp, khin cho

i th khng th cnh tranh c
Trn Tun Vinh
V d
48
Th trng tim nng trong tng lai
Th trng tim nng l g?
Cc yu t no nh hng n th trng tim nng?
Trn Tun Vinh
49
H thng kinh doanh tt
Phn nh qua cc ch tiu ti chnh gia hin ti vi qu kh, gia cng ty

vi cc cng ty khc cng ngnh.
Phn nh qua hot ng Marketing
Phn nh qua hot ng nghin cu, ci tin v pht trin sn phm mi
Phn nh qua nhng thay i chin lc nhm thch nghi vi nhng thay
i ca thc t.
Phn nh qua vn ho ca cng ty
Kh nng thc hin nhng mc tiu t ra ca b my qun tr
Mc trung thnh ca b my qun tr cp cao i vi cng ty

Trn Tun Vinh
50
Mt s ch tiu ti chnh quan trng ca cng ty

Ch tiu
Cng thc
H s kh nng thanh ton

Vn lu ng thun
Hay cn gi Vn lu ng rng = Ti sn lu ng v u t ngn hn-N

ngn hn
Vn lu ng thun/ Tng TS
Vn lu ng rng/ Tng ti sn
H s thanh ton hin thi
bng Ti sn lu ng v u t ngn hn/N ngn hn
H s thanh ton nhanh
bng Ti sn lu ng v u t ngn hn-Hng tn kho/N ngn hn
Ch tiu hiu qu hot ng

Vng quay cc khon phi thu bnh
qun
bng Doanh thu thun / Khong phi thu bnh qun (i vi Khong phi
thu bnh qun bng trung bnh cng Cc khon phi thu u k v cui k)
Vng quay hng tn kho
bng Gi vn hng bn / Hng tn kho bnh qun (i vi Hng tn kho

bnh qun = trung bnh cng Hng tn kho u k v cui k)
Vng quay ti sn
bng Doanh thu thun / Tng ti sn bnh qun (i vi Tng ti sn bnh

qun bng trung bnh cng Tng ti sn u k v cui k)
H s to doanh thu ca TSC
bng Doanh thu thun/ TSC bnh qun (i vi TSC bnh qun = trung
bnh cng TSC u k v cui k)
Trn Tun Vinh
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C cu vn v ri ro ti chnh
T l n di hn trn vn CSH
bng N di hn/Vn ch s hu (C hai ch tiu u

ly s thi im cui k)
T l n di hn trn tng ti sn
bng N di hn/Tng ti sn (C hai ch tiu u ly s

thi im cui k)
T l n phi tr trn vn CSH
bng Tng n/ Vn ch s hu (C hai ch tiu u ly

s thi im)
T l n phi tr trn tng ngun vn
bng Tng n/ Tng ngun vn (C hai ch tiu u ly

s thi im)
T l vn ch s hu trn tng ngun

bng Vn ch s hu/Tng ngun vn
vn
T l ti sn c nh trn tng ti sn
bng Ti sn c nh/ Tng ti sn (Nh trn Khong

mc TSC c th tm ly Ti sn c nh v u t di
hn)
Cc ch tiu chi ph
T l gi vn hng bn trn DT
T l chi ph bn hng trn doanh thu
T l chi ph qun l trn doanh thu
Trn Tun Vinh
52
Cc ch tiu li nhun hot ng

T sut li nhun H KD chnh
bng Li nhun hot ng kinh doanh chnh/Doanh thu thun
trn doanh thu
Tc tng trng doanh thu
Tc tng trng LNST
Book Value
tnh bng Vn ch s hu - gi tr cp u i/ S lng c phiu

thng ang lu hnh
EPS(cb)
bng Li nhun sau thu/ S lng c phiu thng ang lu

hnh bnh qun"
ROA
bng Li nhun sau thu / Tng ti sn bnh qun
ROE
bng Li nhun sau thu / Vn ch s hu bnh qun
ROS
bng Li nhun sau thu / Doanh thu thun
P/E
bng Gi ng ca ti thi im kt thc k bo co/ EPS c bn
P/B
bng Gi ng ca ti thi im kt thc k bo co/ Book value
T l li nhun gi li
bng "LNST - tng c tc"/LNST
Trn Tun Vinh
53
nh gi c phiu
1. Nhng vn c bn v nh gi c phiu
2. Cc phng php nh gi
3. nh gi tng hp cc phng php
Trn Tun Vinh
54
Nhng vn c bn ca nh gi
Khi nim
S cn thit
Nhn thc v nh gi
Nhng lu
Trn Tun Vinh
55
Khi nim v nh gi
nh gi doanh nghip l vic xc nh gi tr ni ti hay gi tr hp l ca
doanh nghip phc v cho cc cng vic sau:
1.
a ra cc quyt nh u t mua, bn, hay nm gi
2.
M&A
3.
C phn ho
4.
Pht hnh, nim yt c phiu
Trn Tun Vinh
56
S cn thit ca vic nh gi
Tn cng ty
Gi xc nh
Mc ch
Gi hin ti
1. Vietcombank
VCB
100,000
IPO
50,000
2. Bia Si Gn
SABECO
70,000
IPO
30,000
3. Ti chnh Du kh
PVFC
51,000
IPO
15,700
4. m Ph M
DMP
100,000
Nim yt
27,900
5. in Quang
DQC
290,000
Nim yt
9,400
6. Nh T Lim
NTL
270,000
Nim yt
28,900
(Ngy 09/09/2008, Ngun: www.ssc.gov.vn, www.vse.org.vn)

Trn Tun Vinh
57
Nhn thc
Mua c phiu m khng bit gi tr thc, cng ging nh ngi kh i ch,
chc chn s mua gi cao.
Xc nh gi tr thc m da trn d liu qu ngn v khng n nh, chc
chn s thiu chnh xc.
D liu di v n nh nhng c to ra bi mt cng ty khng tt l mt tai
nn khng khip, mi th bn lm u tr nn v ngha.
Vn quan trng ca nh gi l trc tin bn phi c mt cng ty tt.
Trn Tun Vinh
58
Nhng lu v nh gi
nh gi vn mang tnh ch quan, kt qu nh gi ph thuc vo ngi nh
gi
Gi tr nh gi khng c tnh bt bin m n ph thuc vo s thay i ca
thng tin v thi gian
Kt qu nh gi khng bao gi l chc chn 100%, bi v nh gi l vic c
tnh nhng g s xy ra trong tng li m c tnh th khng bao gi tuyt i
ng
M hnh nh gi cng phc tp vi vic c tnh nhiu bin s, cha hn to

ra mt kt qu ng; bi v sai s d tnh s rt ln do d tnh nhiu bin s.
Kt qu nh gi khng quan trng bng qu trnh nh gi
Trn Tun Vinh
59
CC M HNH NH GI C PHIU
Da trn quan im:
Da trn quan im:
Da trn quan im:
Gi tr DN l ton b ti
sn v hnh v hu hnh
ca DN
So snh vi gi tr ca
doanh nghip khc
Gi tr DN l gi tr dng
TIN doanh nghip to
ra trong tng lai.
Assets Valuation
Maket Ratio Valuation

(Relative Valuation)
1.P/E
2.P/B
3.P/S
Discount Cash Flow

Model (DCF)
1. C tc
2. Free Cash Flow To
Equity Discount Model
(FCFE)
3. Free Cash Flow To
Firm Discount Model
Trn Tun Vinh
(FCFF)
60
nh gi theo ti sn (Asset Valuation)

1.
Cng thc chung
2.
Xc nh cc bin s
3.
Trng hp s dng
4.
Hn ch ca m hnh
Trn Tun Vinh
61
Cng thc chung

1.
Gi tr thc ca DN = Gi tr TS rng + Li th kinh doanh
2.
Gi tr ca CP = Gi tr thc ca DN / Tng SLCP ang LH
Trn Tun Vinh
62
Xc nh cc bin s
1.
Gi tr ti sn rng
2.
Li th kinh doanh
3.
Tng gi tr c phiu ang lu hnh
Trn Tun Vinh
63
Gi tr ti sn rng
Cng thc:
Gi tr TS rng = Tng ti sn nh gi li - Tng n
Trong :
1. Tng ti sn nh gi li l ton b ti sn hin c ca doanh
nghip ti thi im nh gi c nh gi li theo th trng
2. Tng n l ton b n ca doanh nghip ti thi im nh gi
Lu :
* i vi DN CPH: gi tr TS rng chnh l phn vn ca Nh nc c nh gi
li
Trn Tun Vinh
64
Tng s lng c phiu lu hnh

Tng SLCP LH = SLCP PH SLCP qu
SLCP PH = Vn iu l/mnh gi
Lu :
* Trong mt s BCTC, vn iu l chnh l mc vn u t ca CSH
* Khi nh gi DN CPH th SLCPLH c chn l s lng c phiu ca NN trong
trng hp CPH gi nguyn vn; s lng c phiu ca NN khi cha bn bt trong trng hp
CPH bn mt phn vn NN
Trn Tun Vinh
65
Xc nh li th kinh doanh ca DN
T sut li nhun bnh qun (Rcty) = Tng LNST ca n nm lin k ( t 3 n

5 nm) / Tng vn KD (thng VCSH) ca n nm lin k
T sut li nhun bnh qun n nm ca cc DN cng ngnh (Rngnh) = Tng
LNST ca n nm ca m DN cng ngnh / Tng vn KD ca n nm ca m DN
cng ngnh.
Li th kinh doanh = Vn KD bnh qun n nm lin k x (Rcty Rngnh)
Trn Tun Vinh
66
Cng ty X
Tng cng
2005
2006
2007
Tng ti sn
247,883,250,121
468,269,225,410
844,206,663,917
Tng n
149,864,904,946
167,953,623,248
222,465,665,696
Vn ch s hu
101,768,345,175
300,315,602,162
621,740,998,221
1,023,824,945,558
22,355,326,660
46,615,992,666
150,020,149,676
218,991,469,002
Li nhun sau thu
* S lng c phiu lu hnh ca X: 12,859,288

Li nhun sau thu
2005
2006
2007
Tng cng
Cng ty A
29,775,349,292
31,580,640,884
27,494,786,533
88,850,776,709
Cng ty B
7,810,800,674
25,057,489,277
38,527,776,279
71,396,066,230
Cng ty C
3,110,482,337
6,059,543,812
7,497,951,882
16,667,978,031
Tng cng
Vn ch s hu
2005
176,914,820,970
2006
2007
Tng cng
Cng ty A
102,521,799,980
113,399,110,185
162,944,885,674
378,865,795,839
Cng ty B
28,180,284,009
72,079,343,289
285,894,452,617
386,154,079,915
Cng ty C
22,123,392,200
53,254,590,760
112,430,523,036
187,808,505,996
Tng cng
Trn Tun Vinh
952,828,381,750
67
1. T sut li nhun BQ ca X = 218,991,469,002 / 1,023,824,945,558 = 21.39 %
2. T sut li nhun BQ ngnh = 176,914,820,970 / 952,828,381,750 = 18.57 %

3. Li th kinh doanh = (1,023,824,945,558 / 3) x (21.39 % - 18.57 %) = 9,623,954,488
4. Gi tr ca X = 844,206,663,917 - 222,465,665,696 + 9,623,488 = 631,364,952,709
5. Gi tr CP X = 631,364,952,709 / 12,859,288 = 49,098
Trn Tun Vinh
68
Li th kinh doanh (theo TT 202/2011/TT_BTC)
Gi tr
li th
kinh
doanh
ca
doanh
nghip
Gi tr
phn
vn nh
nc
theo s k
ton ti
thi im
nh gi
Trn Tun Vinh
T sut
li nhun
sau thu
trn vn nh
nc bnh qun
3 nm trc
thi im
xc nh
gi tr
doanh
nghip
Li sut
tri phiu
Chnh ph
c k hn 5
nm tr ln
ti thi im
gn nht vi
thi im
xc nh
gi tr
Doanh
nghip
69
Li th kinh doanh ca cng ty CP

p dng phng php trong Thng t 202 xc nh li th kinh doanh ca
cc cng ty CP, bng cch:
1. Thay gi tr vn Nh nc bng gi tr vn ch s hu.
2. T sut li nhun sau thu trn vn Nh nc bnh qun ba nm bng ROE
bnh qun ba nm ca cng ty
Trn Tun Vinh
70
Li th kinh doanh ca cng ty CP
Gi tr
li th
kinh
doanh
ca
doanh
nghip
Gi tr
phn
vn CSH
theo s k
ton ti
thi im
nh gi
Trn Tun Vinh
ROE
bnh qun
3 nm trc
thi im
xc nh
gi tr
doanh
nghip
Li sut
tri phiu
Chnh ph
c k hn 5
nm tr ln
ti thi im
gn nht vi
thi im
xc nh
gi tr
Doanh
nghip
71
Trng hp s dng
M hnh nh gi theo phng php ti sn s dng ph bit trong hot
ng CPH xc nh gi tr doanh nghip.
Rt t cc nh u t s dng m hnh ny nh gi c phiu. Tuy
nhin, nu mun s dng m hnh ny u t, chng ta phi thm vo phn
gi tr chnh lch BS cho ph hp vi tnh hnh Vit Nam
Trn Tun Vinh
72
Assets Valuation (s dng T)

Gi tr thc ca DN =
Tng ti sn
Tng n
+ Li th kinh doanh
+ Chnh lch gi tr quyn s dng t
Trn Tun Vinh
73
V d
Xc nh gi tr c phiu ca cng ty X theo phng php ti sn. Bit rng X
c nhng s liu nh sau:
1. X c QSD l t 150 m2 mt tin trn ng ng Khi, Q.1,
TPHCM, gi tr s sch ghi nhn l 60 t. Gi thc t theo theo TT l 100 t.
2. X c BCTC nh sau
Li sut tri phiu 5 nm ca Chnh ph l 9%
Trn Tun Vinh
74
Bi gii
2004
ROE
2005
2006
BQ
Vn ch s hu
ROE bq 3 nm
Tri phiu CP 5 nm
Gi tr li th KD
Ch tiu
S tin
Tng ti sn
468,269,225,410
Tng n
167,953,623,248
Gi tr li th KD
42,127,179,886
300,315,602,162
Chnh lch QSD
40,000,000,000
23.03%
Gi tr doanh nghip
9%
S lng CPLH
42,127,179,886
Gi tr 1 CP
22.33% 23.56% 23.19% 23.03%
Ch tiu
STT
S tin
Trn Tun Vinh
382,442,782,048
7,887,578
48,487
75
Hn ch ca m hnh
Ch ch trng n nhng din bin xy ra trong qu kh v hin ti, khng c
s xem xt nhng bin i ca doanh nghip trong tng lai
Ch xem xt s ring bit ca doanh nghip khng gn gi tr ca doanh
nghip trong s tng tc vi doanh nghip khc (khng c tnh th trng)
Trn Tun Vinh
76
nh gi bng phng php so snh (Relative Valuation hoc Multipliers))

1.
2.
3.
P/E
P/B
P/S
Trn Tun Vinh
77
Phng php P/E
Ch tiu
Thu nhp trn ca Cp
(EPS)
Gi th trng
C phiu A
C phiu B
5000/cp/nm
8000/cp/nm
60,000
Trn Tun Vinh
78
Phng php P/E

Cng thc chung:
P(A) = EPS(A) x P/E*
Trong :
P(A): gi tr thc ca cp cng ty A
EPS(A): EPS ca cng ty A
P/E*: P/E s dng nh gi (lu : y khng phi P/E hin ti ca cng ty)
Trn Tun Vinh
79
Phng php P/E

Trnh t cc bc thc hin:
1. Tm P/E nh gi: P/E ngnh hoc P/E ni ti hoc P/E bnh qun
hoc P/E bnh qun trong qu kh (lu : ch chn mt trong nhng loi P/E trn)
2. Tnh EPS hin ti
3. Tnh ton gi tr thc ca CP
Trn Tun Vinh
80
Tm P/E nh gi
P/E ngnh hoc;

P/E ni ti hoc;
P/E bnh qun qu kh hoc;
P/E c tnh cn c vo LS bnh qun ca th trng
Trn Tun Vinh
81
Tm P/E nh gi
Tm P/E ngnh: tm
kim d liu thc t
ca t nht 3 cng ty
trong ngnh, l tng
nht l 10 cng ty.
Gi th
trng
S lng
CPLH
Li
nhun
sau
thu
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)=(1)*(2)
Cng ty A
P(A)
LN(A)
P(A)*a
Cng ty B
P(B)
LN(B)
P(B)*b
Cng ty C
P(C)
LN(C)
P(C)*c
Cng ty D
P(D)
LN(D)
P(D)*d
Cng ty E
P(E)
LN(E)
P(E)*e
Cng ty
trong
ngnh
Tng cng
Gi tr vn ha
TT
P/E ngnh = M/N
Trn Tun Vinh
82
Tm P/E nh gi
Hoc tm P/E ni ti nh sau:
P0 = D1/(r-g) = D0 x (1+g)/(r-g)
P0/EPS0 = (D0/EPS0)x (1+g)/(r-g)
= (1-b)x(1+g)/(r-g)
P/E ni ti = (1-b)x(1+g)/(r-g)
b: t l li nhun gi li
g: tc tng trng
r: t l chit khu
g = b x ROE (cp ph thng/ROCE)

b= 1- (t l c tc x VL/LNST)
Trn Tun Vinh
83
Tm P/E nh gi
Hoc Tm P/E bnh
qun ca cng ty: t
nht l phi c s liu
1 nm, tt nht l 3-5
nm
Nm 1
Nm 2
Nm 3
Bnh qun
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)={(1)+2)+3)}/3
Thng 1
P/E(1.1)
P/E(2.1)
P/E(3.1)
P/E(1)
Thng 2
P/E(1.2)
P/E(2.2)
P/E(3.2)
P/E(2)
Thng 3
P/E(1.3)
P/E(2.3)
P/E(3.3)
P/E(3)
Thng 4
P/E(1.4)
P/E(2.4)
P/E(3.4)
P/E(4)
Thng 5
P/E(1.5)
P/E(2.5)
P/E(3.5)
P/E(5)
Thng 6
P/E(1.6)
P/E(2.6)
P/E(3.6)
P/E(6)
Thng 7
P/E(1.7)
P/E(2.7)
P/E(3.7)
P/E(7)
Thng 8
P/E(1.8)
P/E(2.8)
P/E(3.8)
P/E(8)
Thng 9
P/E(1.9)
P/E(2.9)
P/E(3.9)
P/E(9)
Thng 10
P/E(1.10)
P/E(2.10)
P/E(3.10)
P/E(10)
Thng 11
P/E(1.11)
P/E(2.11)
P/E(3.11)
P/E(11)
Thng 12
P/E(1.12)
P/E(2.12)
P/E(3.12)
P/E(12)
P/E bnh qun ca cty

Trn Tun Vinh
[P/E(1)++P/E(12)]/12
84
Tm P/E nh gi
Hin nay, mt s nh u t chuyn nghip tnh ton P/E nh gi
da trn quan im:
T sut li nhun u t CP = LS bnh qun TT
M:
T sut li nhun u t CP = EPS / gi CP (P)
Suy ra: EPS/P = LS bnh qun TT
Suy ra:
P/E = 1/LS bnh qun TT
V d: LS bnh qun hin nay ca VN khong 9%, nn P/E chp nhn = 1/9% = 11.2
Trn Tun Vinh
85
EPS hin ti
Cng thc tng qut
LNST c tc CP
EPS =
Nbq
Nbq: S lng c phiu ph thng lu hnh bnh qun
Trn Tun Vinh
86
EPS hin ti
Nbq
NixTi
365 (hoc 12)
Ni : S lng c phiu lu hnh thi k i

Ti : Thi lng ca thi k i
Trn Tun Vinh
87
EPS hin ti
1.Trng
hp pht hnh thm c phiu

Cng ty X nm 2007 li 10 t. Ti 1/1/2007, X c 1 triu c phiu
lu hnh. Vo 1/7/2007, X pht hnh thm 100.000 c phiu ph thng vi gi
20.000/cp. Tnh EPS?
Nbq = (1x6 + 1.1x6)/12 = 1.05 triu
EPS = 10 t / 1.05 triu = 9524 VND
Trn Tun Vinh
88
EPS hin ti
2. Trng hp pht hnh thm c phiu thng hoc tr c tc
Cng ty X nm 2007 li 10 t. Ti 1/1/2007, X c 1 triu c phiu
lu hnh. Vo 1/7/2007, X pht hnh thm 100.000 c phiu ph thng
thng. Tnh EPS?
Nbq = 1tr + 0.1tr = 1.1 triu
EPS = 10 t/1.1 triu = 9091 VND
Lu : i vi vic tr c tc hoc thng bng c phiu, th phi
tnh hi t t u nm
Trn Tun Vinh
89
Bi tp
Cng ty A nm 2007 c LNST l 80 t. Vo thi im 1/1/2007, cng
ty c 7 triu c phiu ph thng lu hnh v 3 triu c phiu u i vi c tc
10%, mnh gi l 10.000 VND. Vo 30/03/2007, cng ty pht hnh 10% c
phiu tr c tc, v vo 1/7/2007, cng ty pht hnh thm 3 triu c phiu
vi gi 20.000 VN. Tnh EPS?
Nbq = {(7tr + 10%x7tr)x6 + [3tr + (7tr + 10%x7tr)]x6}/12
= 9.2 tr
EPS = (80 t - 3tr x 10% x 10,000)/9.2tr = 8,370 VND
Trn Tun Vinh
90
V d
Nm 2007
Ch tiu
Cng ty A
Cng ty B
Cng ty C
90,000
86,000
86,000
18,000,000,000
50,000,000,000
33,000,000,000
4,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
1.Gi th trng
2.LNST
3.SLCPLH
Cng ty X
Ch tiu
VL
LNST
Mnh gi
2010
30,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
10,000
Trn Tun Vinh
Hy xc nh gi tr ca c
phiu X theo P/E.
91
Tnh P/E ngnh

Cng ty
Gi
S lng Cp
Gi tr vn ha TT
LNST
90,000
4,000,000
18,000,000,000
360,000,000,000
86,000
8,000,000
50,000,000,000
688,000,000,000
86,000
6,000,000
33,000,000,000
516,000,000,000
101,000,000,000
1,564,000,000,000
Tng cng
P/E ngnh
15.49
Trn Tun Vinh
92
Ch tiu
2010
EPS
2,000
P/E ngnh
15.49
Gi tr thc
28,719
Trn Tun Vinh
93
Chit khu dng tin (Discount Cash Flow Model)

1.
2.
3.
Trn Tun Vinh
Chit khu c tc
Free Cash Flow To Equity
Discount Model (FCFE)
Free Cash Flow To Firm
Discount Model (FCFF)
94
Cng thc chung cho m hnh DCF
CF1
(1 ke )
CF2
(1 ke )
...
CFn
(1 ke )
(1 k )
t 1
CFt
CFt: dng tin d kin doanh nghip s to ra trong nm th t ( c

th l c tc c chi tr, tin thanh l cc ti sn, ngn lu ca vn
ch s hu, ngn lu ca doanh nghip)
ke : Sut chit khu, th hin mc li nhun k vng ca nh u t
tng ng vi mc ri ro tng ng ca dng tin CF.ng trn gc
doanh nghip th y chnh l chi ph vn.
Trn Tun Vinh
95
Tnh li sut chit khu
Theo CAPM
Theo m hnh Gordon
Theo WACC
Theo li sut k vng ca tng nh u t ring bit
Trn Tun Vinh
96
Theo CAPM
R j R f ( Rm R f ) j
Rj : L t sut LN yu cu ca CP j( hay chi ph vn c phn )
Rf : Li sut khng ri ro.
Rm : T sut li nhun ca th trng.
j H s beta ca chng khon j.
Trn Tun Vinh
97
Nm
TSSL Market
(RM)
TSSL ca A
(RA)
RM Rbq
RA - Rbq
[1]
[2]
[3]
[4]
[5]
(RM Rbq)2
[6] = [4] x [5]
[7]
40.00
45.00
27.25
29.25
797.06
742.56
-5.00
-3.00
-17.75
-18.75
332.81
315.06
7.00
9.00
-5.75
-6.75
38.81
33.06
20.00
22.00
7.25
6.25
45.31
52.56
15.00
16.00
2.25
0.25
0.56
5.06
-7.00
-9.00
-19.75
-24.75
488.81
390.06
-5.00
-1.00
-17.75
-16.75
297.31
315.06
-9.00
-7.00
-21.75
-22.75
494.81
473.06
14.00
17.00
1.25
1.25
1.56
1.56
10
13.00
15.00
0.25
-0.75
-0.19
0.06
11
30.00
35.00
17.25
19.25
332.06
297.56
12
40.00
50.00
27.25
34.25
933.31
742.56
Trung bnh (Rbq)
12.75
15.75
Tng
3,762.25
3,368.25
Lu : Chng ta c th chn t sut LN theo

ngy hoc theo thng tnh Beta
COV =
3,762.25 /12
313.52
Var =
3368.25 /12
280.69
Beta (A) =
COV / VAR
1.12Trn Tun Vinh
98
Theo m hnh Gordon

P0 = D0 x (1+g) / (r g)
Suy ra: r = [D0 x (1+g) + P0 x g] / P0
P0: Gi CP hin ti
D0: C tc nm hin ti
Trn Tun Vinh
99
Theo WACC
ke = WACC (cp vn bnh qun)
WACC = % vn vay x chi ph vn vay x (1-thu sut) + % vn ho th
trng x chi ph vn CSH
Trn Tun Vinh
100
Theo t sut LN k vng ca ring NT

r = Max(lm pht, ls TPCP) + phn b ri ro do u t
Warent Buffet thng lm theo cch ny
Rt ra t phn tch nh tnh

ngnh v cng ty. y l phn
mang tnh cht cm tnh, n th
hin kinh nghim ca ngi phn
tch
Trn Tun Vinh
101
Tnh dng tin CF
Theo phng php chit khu dng c tc (DDM)
Theo phng php chit khu dng tin t do ca VCSH (FCFE)
Theo phng php chit khu dng tin t do ca cty (FCFF)\
Trn Tun Vinh
102
Phng php chit khu c tc DDM

M hnh ny c hnh thnh da trn quan im: khi mua c phiu,
chng ta s nm gi lu di v dng tin duy nht chng ta c c chnh l c
tc. Nn gi tr ca c phiu chnh l gi tr hin ti ca dng c tc
Trn Tun Vinh
103
Nhng cng ty thch hp
ang trong giai on tng trng n nh
C chnh sch s dng phn ln LNST chia c tc
C tc tng trng c tc thp hn t l chit khu
Trn Tun Vinh
104
Phng php chit khu c tc DDM

M hnh c xc nh thi hn nm gi:
D: c tc c chia
ke: t sut li nhun k vng
Trn Tun Vinh
105
Phng php chit khu c tc

M hnh khng xc nh thi hn nm gi:
Cng thc chung:
Trn Tun Vinh
106
M hnh khng xc nh thi hn

1. Tc tng trng c tc khng i: p dng m hnh GorDon
Ch tiu
C tc
g
Ke
nm 0 (hin ti)
1,000
nm 1
nm 2
1,050
1,103
..
Nm n
N/A
5%
5%
5%
16%
16%
16%
..
16%
5%
16%
V = 1050/(16% - 5%) = 9,545

Trn Tun Vinh
107

2. T l tr c tc khng i:
V = D/ke
Ch tiu
C tc
g
Ke
V
nm 0 (hin ti)
1,000
nm 1
nm 2
1,000
1,000
0%
0%
0%
16%
16%
16%
..
Nm n
N/A
..
16%
0%
16%
V = 1000/16% = 6,250
Trn Tun Vinh
108

3. Tc tng trng c tc c thay i: chia lm nhiu giai on khc nhau,
ph bin nht l 3 giai on
Toc o tang trng
gs
Giai oan 1
Giai oan 2
Ng
Giai oan 3
Nd
Thi gian
Trn Tun Vinh
109

Giai on 1: t l tng trng g cao v u
Ng
V1
D0 . (1 g )t
t 1
(1 ke )t
Giai on 2: t l tng trng c tc gim dn

Nd
V2
t Ng
Dt
1
(1 ke )t
(1 ke )
Trn Tun Vinh
Ng
110

Giai on 3: t l tng trng c tc u v n nh
D
V3
Nd
.1 g
ke g s
(1 k e ) N d
Gi tr thc ca C phiu : V = V1 +V 2 +V 3
Trn Tun Vinh
111
V d
Cng ty X d kin tr c tc nm 2008 l 1.500 VND, t nm 2008 2010 mi nm c tc d kin tng 20%, t nm 2011 - 2013 mi nm d kin
tng 15%, t nm 2014 tr i mi nm c tc d kin tng u 5%. Chn t l
chit khu bng 10%. Hy xc nh gi tr thc ca CP X bng phng php
c tc.
Trn Tun Vinh
112
Bi gii
Ch tiu
2008
T l tng trng c tc
C tc
2010
2011
2012
2013
t 2014 tr i
20%
20%
15%
15%
15%
5%
1,500
1,800
2,160
2,484
2,857
3,285
68,987
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
1,364
1,488
1,623
1,697
1,774
1,854
38,941
T l chit khu
PV
2009
Gi tr thc
48,740
V1 = 1500/(1+10%) + 1500x(1+20%)/(1+10%)2 + 1500x(1+20%)2/(1+10%)3 = 4,474

V2 = 2160x(1+15%)/(1+10%)4 + 2160x(1+15%)2 /(1+10%)5 + 2160x(1+15%)3 /(1+10%)6 = 5,325
V3 = [3,285x(1+5%)/(10% - 5%)]/(1+10%)6 = 38,941
V = V1 + V2 + V3 = 48,740
Trn Tun Vinh
113
Nhng cng ty thch hp
ang trong giai on tng trng cao v cn tip din trong vi nm ti,
nhng sau s suy gim tng trng t mc n nh
C chnh sch s dng nhiu LNST chia c tc (t l li nhun tr c

tc cao hay t l li nhun gi li thp)
C tc tng trng c tc thp hn t l chit khu
Trn Tun Vinh
114
DCF
FCFE l dng tin t do ca c ng, c tnh bng tng cc khon thu
m c ng c hng tr i cc khong u t s dng vn c ng.
FCFE = EAT chi tiu t bn + Ngun ti tr
Chi tiu t bn = u t TSC & TDH + mua TSL phi tin mt
= thay i TSC&TDH + thay i TSL phi tin mt
Ngun ti tr
= t khu hao + t vn vay
= khu hao trong nm + thay i n vay
Suy ra:
FCFE = EAT + khu hao thay i TSL phi tin thay i TSC&TDH
+ thay i n vay
Trn Tun Vinh
115
V d: tnh FCFE ca cty X

Cc yu t
2005
2006
22,355,326,660
46,615,992,666
7,800,337,338
12,221,648,408
13,589,118,867
96,278,146,656
4. Thay i VL phi tin
(87,153,079,857)
124,107,828,633
5. Thay i n
(87,335,078,859)
18,088,718,302
16,384,546,129
(143,459,615,913)
1. EAT
2. Khu hao
3. Thay i TSC v TDH
FCFE
Trn Tun Vinh
116
DCF
FCFF l dng tin t do ca c doanh nghip. N c tnh bng tng
cc khon thu m doanh nghip c c tr i tng cc khong chi u t ca
doanh nghip. Trong trng hp ny ngi ta khng phn bit vn c ng v
vn vay.
FCFF= EAT + khu hao + li vay*(1-tax) chi tiu t bn ca DN
= EAT + khu hao + li vay*(1-tax) thay i TS
= EAT + khu hao + li vay*(1-tax) thay i TSL phi tin mt
thay i TSC&TDH
Suy ra:
FCFE = FCFF + thay i N vay chi ph li*(1-tax)
Trn Tun Vinh
117
DCF
N
FCFFt
P0
t
t 1 (1 k e )
FCFE t
P0
t
(
1
k
)
t 1
e
1. P0: Gi tr VCP
2. Pcp= P0 / SLCPLH
1. P0: Gi tr cng ty
2. Pcp= (P0-N)/ SLCPLH
Trn Tun Vinh
118
Quy trnh nh gi n gin
Tnh FCFE (hoc FCFF) hin ti v t nht 3 nm trong qu kh, tnh tc

tng trng bnh qun
D on m hnh tng trng ca FCFE (hoc FCFF).
Xc nh t l chit khu
Thc hin inh gi.
Trn Tun Vinh
119
Quy trnh inh gi theo FCFE

1. Tnh FCFE hin ti v qu kh t nht 3 nm
Cc yu t
Nm 5
Nm 4
Nm 3
Nm 2
Nm 1
Nm 0
Tc tng
trng BQ
1. EAT
2. Khu hao
3. Thay i TSC v
TDH
4. Thay i VL
5. Thay i n vay
FCFE
Trn Tun Vinh
120
Quy trnh inh gi theo FCFE

2. D on m hnh tng trng ca FCFE
y l phn kh khn nht ca nh gi, n ph thuc vo kinh
nghim v mc hiu bit su sc ca ngi phn tch i vi cng ty, nhm
tr li ba vn sau:
1. Cng ty s tng trng qua my giai on (i vi Warent Buffet,
thng thng ng ch chn 2 giai on).
2. Mi giai on ko di bao nhiu nm (i vi Warent Buffet, giai

on 1: ko di 10 nm, giai on 2: sau nm th 10 n v cng).
3. Tc tng trng ca FCFE mi giai on
Trn Tun Vinh
121
Quy trnh nh gi theo m hnh FCFE

M hnh ny c thc hin trn gi nh cng ty tng trng qua 2 giai on.
Giai on 1 ko di 5 nm tc tng trng t; Giai on 2 sau nm th 5 cho n v
cng, tc tng trng g
Cc yu t
Nm 0
Nm 1
Nm 2
Nm 3
Nm 4
Nm 5
ke
ke
ke
ke
ke
FCFE nm trc
Tc tng trng
FCFE
T l chit khu
PV(FCFE)
FCFE(n)_ gi tr cn li ca FCFE
t nm 6 n v cng
PV(FCFEn)
Gi tr vn c phn
p dng m hnh Gordon: FCFE(n) = FCFE(6)/(ke g)

Ly FCFE(n) chit khu v nm 0
PV(0) +.+PV(5)+PV(FCFEn)
S lng c phiu lu hnh

Gi tr thc ca CP
N
Gi tr vn c phn / N
Trn Tun Vinh
122
Gillette Company
Nm
Li nhun sau thu

(triu USD)
Khu hao (triu

USD)
Chi tiu t bn
(triu USD)
Dng tin ca C
1981
124.3
76.7
116.1
84.9
1982
135.1
77.5
90.5
122.1
1983
145.9
78.2
90.1
134.0
1984
159.3
76.0
155.3
80.0
1985
159.9
77.7
158.1
79.5
1986
15.8
97.3
229.7
(116.6)
1987
229.9
114.1
168.0
176.0
1988
268.5
127.4
189.0
206.9
1989
284.7
134.6
222.6
196.7
1990
367.9
162.1
255.2
274.8
T l tng trng
1981 - 1985
5.20%
0.30%
6.40%
-1.30%
1987 - 1990
17.00%
12.40%
15.00%
16.00%
(Ngun: "chin lc u t vo th trng chng khon ca Warrant Buffett", NXBT, 2000)

Trn Tun Vinh
123
Cc yu t
FCFE nm trc (tr USD)
Nm
1
Nm
2
Nm
3
Nm
4
Nm
5
Nm
6
Nm
7
Nm
8
Nm
9
275
316
364
418
481
553
636
732
841
Nm
10
967
Tc tng trng
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
FCFE (tr USD)
316
364
418
481
553
636
732
841
967
1113
T l chit khu
9%
9%
9%
9%
9%
9%
9%
9%
9%
9%
PV(FCFE) (tr USD)
290
306
323
341
359
379
400
422
445
470
T l tng trng sau nm 10

(g)
5.0%
FCFE(n)_ gi tr cn li ca
FCFE t nm 10 n v cng
= FCFE(11) / (9% - 5%) = FCFE(10)*(1+5%) / (9% - 5%) =29,175
PV(FCFEn) (tr USD)
= FCFE(n) / (1+9%)10 = 29,175 / (1+9%)10 = 12,324
Gi tr vn c phn (tr USD)
= 290+306+323+341+359+379+400+422+445+470+12,324 = 16,060
S lng c phiu lu hnh (tr)
1,000
Gi tr thc ca CP (USD)
16.06
Trn Tun Vinh
124
nh gi tng hp nh gi
Trong cc m hnh nh gi vic d on chnh xc giai on pht
trin v tc pht trin ca cng ty qua cc giai on s mang tnh quyt
nh n kt qu nh gi, v vy khi la chn cng ty nh gi cn ch
nhng im sau:
1.Cng
ty c ngnh ngh n gin, d hiu bit
2.Cng
ty phi c li th so snh
3.Qun
l tt
4.Cng
ty phi hot ng lu nm v c dng tin tng trng n nh

Trn Tun Vinh
125
Chng 3: u t tri phiu

1.
2.
3.
4.
Cc vn c bn ca tri phiu
Phng php o lung li sut
nh gi tri phiu
o lng ri ro li sut tri phiu
Trn Tun Vinh
126
Khi nim v c im ca tri phiu

Khi nim: l mt loi chng khon c pht hnh di hnh thc
chng ch hoc bt ton ghi s xc nhn ngha v tr n ( gm vn gc v li)
ca t chc pht hnh i vi ngi s hu tri phiu.
c im:
1. ngi mua TP l ch n ca t chc pht hnh.
2. TP u c k hn xc nh (tr TP vnh cu) v li sut c nh.
3. TP l mt giy t c gi v c chuyn nhng t do trn th
trng chng khon
Trn Tun Vinh
127
Mnh gi
L gi danh ngha ca tri phiu, c ghi c th trn t tri phiu
Trong ting Anh, mnh gi thng c din t bng t face value;

nhng h cng dng rt ph bin cc t face amount, principal amount,
hay par value.
Mnh gi tri phiu thng c nh chun cc s cng chn cng

tt, nhiu zero. M mnh gi tri phiu ph bin nht l 1000USD,
Vit Nam l 100.000VN.
y l c s ngi pht hnh thc hin cc ngha v tr n
Trn Tun Vinh
128
Cc yu thi gian
Thi hn ca tri phiu: y l thi gian i vay ca ngi pht hnh i vi tri
ch.
K tr li: khong thi gian m tri ch nhn c tin li t t chc pht hnh.
k tr li thng xc nh mi nm hai ln, cc bo co ti chnh ting Anh v
gii chuyn nghip thng s dng cc mu t vit tt ch cc k tr li cho
tng loi tri phiu. V d: tri phiu J&J, tr li vo ngy 1 thng Ging v 1
thng By; tri phiu F&A tr li vo ngy 1 thng Hai v 1 thng Tm;,
Thi gian o hn (maturity): l thi im m tri phiu ht thi hn v tri ch

c nhn li s tin gc bng mnh gi.
Trn Tun Vinh
129
C cu o hn ca Tri phiu
C 3 loi c cu o hn:
1. o hn tt c cng mt lc.
2. o hn theo nhm serial bonds tng k, loi ny c pht hnh mt t
nhng c k o hn khc nhau theo lch trnh nh trc. V d: mt tri
phiu th c lng pht hnh 100 t ng c lch o hn mi nm 5 t
sut trong chiu di tn ti ca t l 20 nm.
3. o hn tng phn nhng a phn l vo k cui cng(balloon Bonds).
V d mt t pht hnh tri phiu "balloon" c th mi nm thu hi 3% gi
tr pht hnh ban u trong vng 20 nm, ri sau tt ton 40% cn li vo
nm o hn.
Ngoi ra tri phiu cn c th o hn trc hn, trong trng hp TP thu
hi.
Trn Tun Vinh
130
Ri ro u t tri phiu
Ri ro li sut
Ri ro tn dng
Ri ro lm pht
Ri ro thanh khon
Ri ro t gi
Ri ro ti u t: Li nhun ca vic ti u t tin li t tri phiu s

thay i khi li sut th trng thay i
Ri ro thu: Li nhun sau thu t u t tri phiu thay i khi thu sut
nh vo li nhun u t tri phiu thay i.
Trn Tun Vinh
131
Ri ro li sut
L ri ro b gim gi cc tri phiu ang nm gi khi li sut th trng

tng.
Tc ng ch yu n tri phiu c li sut c nh, t tc ng n tri

phiu li sut th ni
Thi gian o hn cng di th nh hng ca li sut cng ln.
Li sut cuopon cng thp th nh hng ca li sut cng ln.
Trn Tun Vinh
132
Ri ro tn dng
L ri ro thua l ca ngi nm gi tri phiu khi t chc pht hnh

khng thanh ton y , ng hn n gc hoc/v tin li theo nh k.
Hn ch bng cch:
Xp hng tn nhim (credit rating)
m bo bng ti sn hoc bo lnh ca bn th ba
Phn tch k tnh hnh hot ng ca t chc pht hnh
Trn Tun Vinh
133
Xp hng
Moody's
3 hng xp hng tn
nhim hng u th
gii u nh gi tn
nhim Vit Nam 2012
mc u c vi
Moodys (B2), S&P
(BB-), Fitch (B+)
S&P
nh gi
Cht lng cao nht
B ri ro
Aaa
AAA
Aa1
AA+
Aa2
AA
Aa3
AA-
60
A1
A+
70
A2
A3
A-
Baa1
BBB+
Baa2
BBB
Baa3
BBB-
135
Ba1
BB+
200
Ba2
BB
Ba3
BB-
300
B1
B+
350
B2
B3
B-
450
Caa1
CCC+
600
Caa2
CCC
Caa3
CCC-
Trn Tun Vinh
0
35
Cht lng cao
Trn trung bnh
50
80
85
100
Trung bnh
Dui trung bnh
u c
Nhiu ri ro v n
115
250
400
675
750
134
Ri ro thanh khon
L ri ro khng bn li c chng khon, hoc bn li vi gi thp.
Lin quan n mc hot ng ca th trng tri phiu th cp.
Tc ng n nh u t t chc mnh hn n nh u t c nhn (vn

c xu hng nm gi tri phiu n ngy o hn).
Trn Tun Vinh
135
Ri ro lm pht
Lm pht lm xi mn sc mua ca ng tin, gy tc ng ln li sut
chit khu k vng theo khuynh hng tng, do lm gi tri phiu c xu
hng gim.
Trn Tun Vinh
136
Ri ro t gi
Ri ro hi oi xy ra khi t gi hi oi gia hai thi im u t v rt

vn l khc nhau, lm gim gi tr ca vn u t ban u.
Ri ro ny nh hng n u t qua bin gii.
Trn Tun Vinh
137
Phng php o lng li sut tri phiu

Li sut danh ngha (normal yield): l li sut m t chc pht hnh cam
kt tr cho tri ch mi nm tnh trn mnh gi. y l khon li sut c nh
sut thi hn ca tri phiu.
Li sut hin hnh (current yield): c tnh bng cch ly tin li cng
nhn c hng nm theo cch tnh li sut danh ngha chia cho gi th trng
ca tri phiu ti thi im mua. y chnh l sut-thc- n ca khon u
t.
Trn Tun Vinh
138
Li sut (tt)
Li sut n hn (Yield-to-Maturity): L mc li sut chit khu cho tng gi
tr hin ti ca cc dng tin thu c trong tng lai bng vi gi th trng ca tri
phiu. Ni mt cch khc, y chnh l t sut hon vn ni b (Internal Rate of Return
IRR) ca hot ng u t vo tri phiu, c xc nh theo cng thc:
CF
CF
CF
F
....
1 y (1 y ) 2
(1 y ) n
(1 y ) n
CF
1
F
(1
)
y
(1 y ) n
(1 y ) n
P
P: gi mua tri phiu

CF: li tri phiu
F: Mnh gi TP
y: Li sut n hn
Trn Tun Vinh
139
Li sut (tt)
Cch tnh li-sut-n-hn theo phng php gn ng:
1.Tnh thu nhp thc hng nm (RI)
RI= CF + (Mnh gi-gi mua)/s nm
2. Tnh gi trung bnh ca TP:
Gi trung bnh=(gi mua + mnh gi)/2
3. Tnh Li sut n hn
Li sut n hn=RI/gi trung bnh
Trn Tun Vinh
140
Tnh YTM bng cng thc chnh xc
Gi P0 l gi mua tri phiu, ta c P(YTM) = P0
Tm y1 mc li sut tht thp sao cho: K1=P(y1) P0 >0
Tm y2 mc li sut tht cao sao cho: K2=P(y2) - P0 <0
p dng cng thc tnh li sut ni suy IRR, ta c:
YTM
y 2 * K1 y1 * K 2
K1 K 2
Trn Tun Vinh
141
Tnh YTM bng Excel
Ngun: bi ging ca Nguyn Xun Thnh, Fulbright

Trn Tun Vinh
142
Bi tp
Tri phiu XYZ c mnh gi 100.000VND, li sut 10%, thi hn 5 nm,
c bn vi gi 90.000VND.
Tnh li sut danh ngha, li sut thc, li sut ti hn ca tri phiu trn.
Trn Tun Vinh
143
Mi quan h gia cc loi li sut

Kho st ba trng hp:
1.
Gi mua bng mnh gi
2.
Gi mua cao hn mnh gi (Premium Bond)
3.
Gi mua thp hn mnh gi (Discount Bond)
Trn Tun Vinh
144
Li sut (tt)
Cc yu t nh hng ti li sut tri phiu:
1. Li sut th trng
2. Uy tn ca t chc pht hnh
3. Thi hn
Trn Tun Vinh
145
nh gi tri phiu
Mnh gi ghi trn tri phiu ch l gi danh ngha, gi tr thc ca tri
phiu c th cao hn, nh hn hoc bng vi mnh gi, iu ny s ph thuc
vo mt bng li sut trn th trng. v vy, nh gi tri phiu l tm ra gi tr
thc ca TP, nhm h tr nh u t mua bn vi mc gi hp l hoc h tr
t chc pht hnh trong vic chn gi pht hnh.
TP c nh gi da trn phng php chit khu dng thu nhp. Trong
li sut chit khu chnh l li sut bnh qun ca th trng hay li sut
mong i ca nh u t ti thi im nh gi
Trn Tun Vinh
146
nh gi tri phiu
nh gi tri phiu tr li nh k (coupon bond):
CF
CF
CF
F
P
....
2
n
1 y (1 y )
(1 y )
(1 y ) n
CF
1
F
(1
)
n
y
(1 y )
(1 y ) n
CF : tin li hng nm
F: mnh gi tri phiu
y: li sut chit khu
n: K hn ca tri phiu
Trn Tun Vinh
147
nh gi tri phiu
nh gi tri phiu tr li bn nin:
CF
CF
CF
F
2
2 ...
2
1 y
(1 y ) 2
(1 y ) 2 n (1 y ) 2 n
2
2
2
2
CF
1
F
(1
)
y
(1 y ) 2 n
(1 y ) 2 n
2
2
P
Trn Tun Vinh
148
nh gi tri phiu
nh gi tri phiu vnh cu:
CF
CF
CF
....
...
2
n
1 y (1 y )
(1 y )
CF
y
P
Trn Tun Vinh
149
nh gi tri phiu
nh gi tri tri phiu khng tr li nh k (zero-coupon bond) hay tri phiu
tr li trc:
F
P
(1 y ) n
Trn Tun Vinh
150
nh gi TP ti thi im khc ngy tr li

CF +F
d: thi gian t
ngy gd n ngy
tr li gn nht
CF
CF
.
2
P1: nh gi ti k
tr li tip theo
Ngy giao dch
Buc 2: chit khu P1 v thi im giao dch
n
Bc 1: tnh P1
CF
CF
CF
F
....
1 y (1 y ) 2
(1 y ) n 1 (1 y ) n 1
CF (1 y )
1
F
(1
)
n
y
(1 y )
(1 y ) n 1
P1 CF
P1
(1 y )
365
Trn Tun Vinh
151
CF +F
d: thi gian t ngy gd n
ngy tr li gn nht
CF
CF
.
Ngy giao dch
P: gi thanh
ton thc t
P1: nh gi ti k tr li tip
theo
d1: Thi gian nm

gi trc khi bn
1. Gi P m chng ta tnh ton c bc 2, da trn c s chng ta xem dng CF nm 1 thuc

hon ton ca ngi mua. Tuy nhin, trong thi k tr li u tin, ngui bn cng nm gi mt
khong thi gian, nn anh ta xng ng hng mt khong li, mc li ny c gi l li tch t
((accruded interest), tnh theo cng thc:
I a CF
d1
365
2. V vy, khi tnh ton gi tr thc ca tri phiu,chng ta phi da vo dng tin m ngui mua
thc hng, tc phi loi tr mc li tch t ca ngi bn. Mc gi ny (Pc) l mc gi c yt
trn bng in hoc tnh ton trong Excel, c tn gi l gi yt hoc gi sch (clean price); P c
gi l gi thanh ton hay gi ton b (full price) hay gi bn (dirty price).
P = Pc + Ia
Trn Tun Vinh
152
Giao dch khng hng li

Cc s giao dch tri phiu thng quy nh ngy ng k cui cng
hng li tri phiu khi gn ti ngy tr li coupon. Ti S giao dch chng
khon H Ni (HNX), ngy ng k cui cng c xc nh trc ngy tr
li 14 ngy.
Khi tri phiu c giao dch trc ngy ng k cui cng trng hp
thng thng), th ngi mua c hng li trong ln tr li k tip.
Khi tri phiu c giao dch t ngy ng k cui cng tr i cho n

trc ln tr li k tip (gi l giao dch ex-interest), th ngi bn vn c
hng li trong ln tr li k tip, mc li ny bao gm mc li m ngi mua
ng l c nhn do nm gi mt khong thi gian t lc giao dch n thi
im nhn li . V vy, i vi giao dch ny:
Gi thanh ton = Gi yt Li tch t ca ngi mua

Trn Tun Vinh
153
Gi tri phiu
Gi c tri phiu ph thuc vo cc yu t sau:
1.Li
sut bnh qun ca th trng
2.Thi
gian o hn ca TP
3.Tnh thanh khon ca tri phiu

4.Uy tn ca t chc pht hnh
Trn Tun Vinh
154
Gi tri phiu
Mi quan h gia gi TP v li sut bnh qun th trng:
1. Li sut bnh qun th trng tng, gi gim.

2. Li sut bnh qun th trng gim, gi tng.
Trn Tun Vinh
155
Gi c (tt)
Mi quan h gia gi c v thi gian o hn:
Xt v d: tri phiu XYZ mnh gi 100.000VND, li sut 10%, tr li nh
k hng nm.
1. LS bnh qun th trng 11%, tnh ln lt gi TP XYZ cn thi
hn 1 nm v 2 nm.
2. LS bnh qun th trng 9%, tnh ln lt gi TP XYZ cn k
hn 1 nm v 2 nm.
T rt ra kt lun
Trn Tun Vinh
156
Mi quan h gia gi v thi gian o hn
Nu li sut danh ngha nh hn li sut th trng th thi gian o hn

di, gi s cng thp.
Nu li sut danh ngha ln hn li sut th trng th thi gian o hn

di, gi s cng cao.
Nu li sut danh ngha bng li sut th trng th gi tri phiu s khng

ph thuc vo thi gian o hn v bng vi mnh gi.
Trn Tun Vinh
157
Trn Tun Vinh
158
o lng ri ro li sut
o lng ri ro li sut chnh l o lng s bin ng gi tri phiu khi
li sut thay i.
Ngi ta thng dng cc cng c sau o lng:
1.
Thi gian o hn bnh qun (Duration)
2.
li (Convexity)
Trn Tun Vinh
159
Duration
tnh mc thay i ca gi khi li

sut thay i mt mc nh, ngi ta
ly o hm cp 1 ca hm s P(y)
theo y, ta c:
Tip tc bin i phng trnh ny,
ta c phng trnh tng ng nh
sau:
Gi Dm l Duration Macaulay, Dm
c tnh theo cng thc sau:
CF
CF
CF
F
....
2
n
1 y (1 y )
(1 y )
(1 y ) n
P
1CF
2CF
nCF
nF
(
....
)
2
3
n 1
y
(1 y )
(1 y )
(1 y )
(1 y ) n 1
1 1CF
2CF
nCF
nF
....
)
1
2
n
1 y (1 y )
(1 y )
(1 y )
(1 y ) n
1CF
2CF
nCF
nF
(
....
)
1
2
n
P
1
(1 y )
(1 y )
(1 y )
(1 y ) n
y
P 1 y
P
P'
Suy ra:
P
1
Dm y
P 1 y
1CF
2CF
nCF
nF
....
)
1
2
n
(1 y )
(1 y )
(1 y )
(1 y ) n
Dm
P
(
Trn Tun Vinh
160
Duration
Ti sao Duration l thi gian o hn bnh qun ca tri phiu?

t:
Th vo:
PV(CFt )
CFt /(1 y)t
wt
PV( Bond )
P
1CF
2CF
nCF
nF
....
)
(1 y )1 (1 y ) 2
(1 y ) n (1 y ) n
Dm
P
(
Ta c:
T
Dm t wt
t 1
T cng thc trn ta thy rng Duartion chnh l thi gian o hn bnh qun ca tri
phiu, trong , trng s chnh l phn trm ca gi tr hin ti dng tin tng k chia
cho gi tr tri phiu
Trn Tun Vinh
161
Duration
Hai tri phiu c cng gi tr 100 nh nhau, nhng c hin gi dng tin cc nm khc nhau. Mua tri phiu
no c li hn?
Tri phiu 1
Tri phiu 2
Nm
Gi tr hin ti ca
dng tin thu hi
% so vi gi
tr TP
50
0.5
30
20
Duration
100
Gi tr hin ti ca
dng tin thu hi
% so vi gi
tr TP
0.5
20
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.6
30
0.3
0.6
0.2
0.6
50
0.5
1.5
1.7
100
2.3
Bn cht Duration chnh l thi gian thu hi vn bnh qun ca tri ch, nn NT s chn tri phiu c Duration
thp
Trn Tun Vinh
162
Modified duration (D*m)

t:
Dm
D
1 y
*
m
Suy ra:
P
*
Dm y
P
Trc tip o lng s bin ng ca gi bng cch tnh ton % bin

ng ca gi khi li sut thay i
Trn Tun Vinh
163
V d
Mt tri phiu li sut danh ngha 10, k hn 3 nm, mnh gi 100USD,
c bn vi gi 107,87USD, li sut chit khu 7%.
1.
Hy tnh Duration
2.
Nu li sut tng ln mc 7.1%, th gi tri phiu s thay i nh th no?
Trn Tun Vinh
164
V d
10
9.35
(1.07)
10
PV (CF2 )
8.73
(1.07) 2
110
PV (CF3 )
89.79
(1.07)3
Price of bond 9.35 8.73 89.79 107.87
PV (CF1 )
9.35
8.73
89.79
Duration ( Dm ) 1*
2*
3*
107.87 107.87 107.87

2.7458
Trn Tun Vinh
165
V d
2.7458
*
Dm
2.5661
1.07
P
Dm* y
P
2.5661 * 0.001 0.25661%
0.2566
P
100
0.2566
$107.87
100
$0.2768
Gi mi ca TP:
107,87 0.2768 = $107.5932
Trn Tun Vinh
166
Li ch ca Duration
Thy c thi gian o hn bnh qun ca tri phiu
o c bin ng gi tri phiu khi li sut thay i
Rt hu ch trong vic qun l ri ro cc ti sn n
Ngoi ra, cn s dng phng nga ri ro bin ng li sut ca mt

khon u t. Nu k hn u t bng vi Duration th s hn ch c
nh hng ca bin ng li sut
Trn Tun Vinh
167
li (convexity)
Khi li sut bin ng ln, bin

ng gi c tnh ton bng
phng php Duration s khng
cn chnh xc, sai lch ln so vi
gi thc t
nng chnh xc ca
phng php Duration,ngi ta
s dng mt thng s b sung
gi l li
li c tnh bng cch ly
o hm bc 2 ca P theo y v
chia cho P
2P
1
P 2
y (1 y ) 2
''
t * (t 1)CFt
(1 y ) t
t 1
2P
1
Convexity
P 2 y
Trn Tun Vinh
168
Thay i gi theo li
Thay i gi tnh theo li
P 1
2
Convexity (y)
P
2
Cng thc Taylor: Tnh thay i gi tnh theo Duration v li
P
1
*
2
Dm y Convexity (y)
P
2
Trn Tun Vinh
169
Chng 4: chng khon phi sinh v

cc loi hnh u t khc
Ths. Trn Tun Vinh GV. i hc Ngn hng TP.HCM
Trn Tun Vinh
170
Chng khon phi sinh v cc loi hnh u

t khc
1.
Chng khon phi sinh
a. Hp ng quyn chn (Option)

b. Hp ng tng lai (Future)
2.
Cc loi hnh u t khc
a. u t vn t nhn (Private Equity)

b. Qu u c (Hedge Fund)
c. u t bt ng sn
d. u t vng v ngoi t
Trn Tun Vinh
171
Quyn chn
1.
Quyn chn
2.
Th trng quyn chn
Trn Tun Vinh
172
Option
Khi nim:
Hp ng quyn chn l hp ng cho php ngi mua n c quyn
nhng khng bt buc, c mua hoc c bn:
- Mt s lng xc nh chng khon c s.
- Ti thi im o hn hp ng (i vi kiu chu u) hoc bt
k lc no trc thi im o hn (i vi kiu M).
- Vi mt mc gi xc nh ti thi im tho thun hp ng, gi
l gi thc hin (strike price).
C hai loi Option: quyn mua (call option), quyn bn (put option).
S giao dch Option ln nht th gii:S giao dch Option Chicago
CBOE-Chicago Board Option Exchange
Trn Tun Vinh
173
Call Option
Call option l mt hp ng quyn chn trong :
- Ngi mua call option s tr cho ngi bn call option mt khon

tin ph (option premium) v ngi mua call option s c quyn c mua
nhng khng bt buc phi mua mt lng chng khon nht nh theo mt
mc gi c tho thun trc (strike price-exercise price) vo mt ngy
xc nh trong tng lai-expiration date (theo kiu chu Au) hoc c thc
hin trc ngy (theo kiu M).
- Trong khi , Ngi bn call option nhn c tin t ngi mua
call option nn h c trch nhim phi bn mt lng chng khon nht
nh theo mt gi c c tho thun trc vo mt ngy xc nh trong
tng lai hoc c thc hin trc ngy , khi ngi mua call option
mun thc hin quyn c mua. Trn Tun Vinh
174
Long call
+
OTM
P1
ITM
Profit LNb
Ps
P2
P3
ATM
Trn Tun Vinh
175
Short Call
+
ATM
F
0
P1
P2
LNs
Ps
ITM
P3
P
Loss
OTM
Trn Tun Vinh
176
Call Option (tt)

Gi:
LNb: li nhun ca ngi mua Call option
LNS: Li nhun ca ngi bn Call option
F: Ph mua hp ng option
PM: th gi ca chng khon c s
PS: Gi thc hin ca hp ng
LNb
LNS
= -F
nu PM<PS
= PM (PS + F)
nu PM>PS
=F
nu PM<PS
= (PS PM) + F
nu PM>Ps
Trn Tun Vinh
177
Bi tp:
A mua mt call option cp XYZ vi s lng 1000cp, gi thc hin
40.000VND, ph l 2.000/cp, ngy o hn 30/11/06. Hy tnh li nhun, t
sut li nhun ca ngi mua, v ca ngi u t vo CP XYZ vi cng
thi gian, cng s lng trn, trong cc trng hp sau:
a. Gi cp XYZ vo ngy o hn l 60.000
b. Gi cp XYZ vo ngy o hn l 30.000
Bit rng quyn chn ny thuc kiu chu u
Trn Tun Vinh
178
Put option
Put option l mt hp ng quyn chn trong :
Ngi mua Put option s tr cho ngi bn Put option mt khon tin ph v
ngi mua Put option s c quyn bn nhng khng bt but phi bn mt lng
chng khon nht nh theo mt mc gi c tho thun trc (Strike price)
vo mt ngy xc nh trong tng lai (kiu u chu) hoc c thc hin trc
ngy (kiu M).
Ngi bn Put option nhn c tin ph t ngi mua nn ngi bn s c

trch nhim phi mua mt lng chng khon nht nh theo mt mc gi c
tha thun trc vo mt ngy xc nh trong tng lai hoc c thc hin trc
ngy , khi ngi mua Put option mun thc hin quyn c bn.
Trn Tun Vinh
179
Long put
+
ITM
OTM
Ps
0
P1
P3
P
F
P2
ATM
Trn Tun Vinh
180
Short Put
+
ATM
P1
P2
Profit = F
Ps
OTM
P3
ITM
Trn Tun Vinh
181
Put Option (tt)

Gi:
LNb: li nhun ca ngi mua Put option
LNS: Li nhun ca ngi bn Put option
F: Ph mua hp ng option
PM: th gi ca chng khon c s
PS: Gi thc hin ca hp ng
LNb
LNS
= -F
nu PM>PS
= PS - (PM + F)
nu PM<PS
=F
nu PM>PS
= (PM + F) - PS
nu PM<Ps
Trn Tun Vinh
182
Bi tp:
A mua mt Put option cp XYZ vi s lng 1000cp, gi thc hin
40.000VND, ph l 2.000/cp, ngy o hn 30/11/06. Hy tnh li nhun, t
sut li nhun ca ngi mua Put option trong cc trng hp sau:
a. Gi cp XYZ vo ngy o hn l 60.000
b. Gi cp XYZ vo ngy o hn l 30.000
Bit rng quyn chn ny thuc kiu chu u
Trn Tun Vinh
183
Th trng quyn chn
Khi nim
S hnh thnh v pht trin ca th trng quyn chn
C cu th trng quyn chn
Cc yu t nh hng n gi quyn chn
Giao dch trn th trng quyn chn
Trn Tun Vinh
184
Khi nim
Th trng quyn chn chng khon l ni pht hnh v mua i bn li cc
hp ng quyn la chn chng khon c pht hnh thng qua mt h
thng cc Nh kinh doanh quyn chn hoc cc cng ty chng khon lm
trung gian.
Trn Tun Vinh
185
S hnh thnh v pht trin
Th trng quyn chn bt u Chu u v M u th k XVIII.
Vo nhng nm 1900, mt nhm cc cng ty thnh lp hip hi cc nh

mi gii v kinh doanh quyn chn cung cp cc k thut giao dch quyn
chn cho NT. Th trng quyn chn lc ny l th trng quyn chn OTC.
Thng 4/1973, th trng quyn chn Chicago c thnh lp gi tt l

CBOE, y l th trng quyn chn tp trung u tin trn th gii.
Hin nay th trng quyn chn lan rng ton th gii, to thnh mt th
trng quyn chn 24/24.
Trn Tun Vinh
186
C cu th trng quyn chn

Th trng quyn chn tp trung hay gi l s giao dch l ni giao dch
tp trung cc hp ng quyn chn c chun ha vi nhng iu kin v
quy nh c th, bao gm: iu kin nim yt, quy m hp ng, ngy o
hn, ngy thanh ton, quy nh v mc k qu ca ngi bn.
Th trng quyn chn phi tp trung (OTC): y l th trng m ngi

mua v ngi bn gp nhau trc tip tha thun cc iu khon c th trong
hp ng quyn chn, khng cho php ngi mua bn li quyn chn trc
khi o hn.
Trn Tun Vinh
187
Giao dch quyn chn
Yt gi quyn chn
Quy trnh giao dch
Trn Tun Vinh
188
Yt gi quyn chn
M CK
Adm Fam
ALFA. Inc
Quyn mua mi nht
Quyn bn mi nht
Gi ng
ca CK
Gi thc
hin
Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
41 1/8
40
1 3/8
3 5/8
3/16
7/8
45
1/2
2 1/8
3 7/8
50
3/8
5/8
12
30
7 7/8
9 1/8
1/8
35
3 1/8
1/8
40
3/4
1 5/8
3/4
7/8
37 7/8
Trn Tun Vinh
189
Ngi
mua
Ngi
bn
6a
6b
1a
7a
1b
2a
MG ca
ngi
mua
2b
MG sn
bn mua
3a
8a
5b
3b
4
9a
OCC
Trn Tun Vinh
MG ca
ngi bn
MG sn
bn bn
(3)
5a
Thnh
vin thanh
ton bn
mua
Sn giao
dch
8b
9b
Thnh
vin thanh
ton bn
bn
190
7b
Quy trnh giao dch quyn chn
(1a), (1b): Ngi mua v ngi bn ch th cho mi gii ca mnh thc

hin mua/bn quyn chn.
(2a), (2b): sau khi nhn c ch th ca nh u t, nhn vin mi gii ti

cng ty chng khon yu cu mi gii sn ca cng ty minh thc hin
giao dch.
(3): Cc mi gii sn gp nhau trn sn giao dch quyn chn v thng

nht gi c.
(4): Thng tin giao dch c bo co v cho trung tm thanh ton b tr

OCC.
Trn Tun Vinh
191
(5a), (5b): Mi gii sn thng bo kt qu giao dch cho mi gii ti cng

ty
(6a), (6b): Mi gii ca bn mua v bn s thc hin thng bo kt qu

giao dch cho nh u t.
(7a), (7b): Ngi mua/bn thc hin np ph/k qu quyn chn cho mi
gii
(8a), (8b): Mi gii mua/bn k gi ph/tin k qu cho thnh vin thanh

ton ca mnh
(9a), (9b): Cc cng ty thanh ton thc hin k gi ph hoc tin k qu

cho trung tm thanh ton b tr
Trn Tun Vinh
192
Hp ng tng lai
1.
Hp ng tng lai
2.
Th trng hp ng tng lai
Trn Tun Vinh
193
Khi nim
Hp ng k hn (forward contract)l mt tho thun thng thng gia

bn mua v bn bn nhm giao dch mt loi hng ho no ti mt
ngy din ra trong tng li vi mt mc gi n nh trc.
Future thc cht l Forward, nhng c chun ha, tc l n khng

cho php a vo nhng iu khon tha thun ty nghi gia bn mua
v bn, mi th u c c khun, bao gm khi lng, ngy v gi
giao dch, cng nh cc th tc giao dch
Trn Tun Vinh
194
Th trng hp ng tng lai (Future)
1.
Khi nim v th trng Future
2.
Lch s pht trin ca th trng Future
3.
Mt s th trng Future ln trn th gii
4.
Giao dch trn th trng Future
Trn Tun Vinh
195
Cu to hp ng tng lai
Mt hp ng tng lai c 5 thnh phn chnh:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Loi hng ho c s
Quy m ca hp ng, v d: quy m hp ng tng lai tri phiu ti M
l 100.000 USD
Ngy o hn hp ng, l ngy hp ng chm dt hiu lc hp ng;
bn bn buc phi giao hng v bn mua buc phi thanh ton tin.
Cc th tc trnh t giao hng
Gi tung lai, l mc gi m bn mua s thanh ton cho bn bn ti thi
im giao hng, c hai bn tho thun trc trong hp ng
Trn Tun Vinh
196
Khi nim v th trng Future

Th trng Future l th trng tp trung giao dch cc hp ng Future
c chun ha (s lng, gi, thi hn), thng qua mt h thng cc mi gii
v cng ty thanh ton b tr Future.
Th trng Future chnh l th trng tp trung ca Forward, cn th
trng giao dch Forward hin ti chnh l th trng OTC (ngi mua v
ngi bn tha thun hp ng vi nhau)
Trn Tun Vinh
197
Lch s pht trin ca th trng Future

Th trng Future bt u bng s ra i ca Hip hi thng mi
Chicago (CBOT), chuyn giao dch cc hp ng v nng sn.
n 1874, S giao dch hng ha Chicago c thnh lp (Chicago

Mercantile Exchange-CME), chuyn giao dch hp ng giao sau ca tt c
cc hng ha. Hin nay, y l sn giao dch ln th 2 trn th gii sau sn
EUREX (lin minh gia c v Thy S).
120 nm u, th trng Future ch yu giao dch hng ha, mi n

1971, cc hp ng Future v tin t chng khon mi c giao dch.
Ngy nay, th trng Future pht trin tt c cc quc gia pht trin
to thnh th trng 24/24
Trn Tun Vinh
198
Mt s th trng Future ln
M: CBOT, www.cbot.com
CME, www.cme.com
Anh: LIFFE, www.liffe.com
c: EUREX, www.eurexchange.com
c: Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE), www.sfr.com.au

Trung Quc: Shanghai Futures Exchange, www.shfe.com.cn
Singapore: Singapore Comodity Exchange, www.sicom.com.sg
Singapore International Monetary Exchange, www.sgx.com
Trn Tun Vinh
199
Giao dch trn th trng Future
Bng yt gi hp ng giao sau
Quy trnh giao dch
Thanh ton hng ngy
Trn Tun Vinh
200
Bng yt gi Future
Lu : gi y l gi ca hng ha trong Future, ch khng phi gi ca Future.
Trong ngy giao dch (USD)

GOLD
Sut thi gian F (USD)
Trng thi m
Gi m
Gi cao nht
Gi thp nht
Gi thanh ton
Thay i
Gi cao nht
Gi thp nht
Open
High
Low
Settle
CHG
High
Low
Open Interest
August-09
965
967
955
960
970
950
54555
September-09
973
975
965
970
-1
980
960
61065
October-09
978
980
970
975
985
965
67575
November-09
988
990
980
985
995
975
74085
December-09
993
995
985
990
10
1000
980
80595
Gi thanh ton l gi bnh qun gia quyn trong ngy

Trng thi m l nhng hp ng Future cn hiu lc
Trn Tun Vinh
201
Ngi
mua
Ngi
bn
6a
6b
1a
7a
1b
2a
MG ca
ngi
mua
2b
MG sn
bn mua
5a
3a
8a
Thnh
vin thanh
ton bn
mua
Sn giao
dch
Future
5b
3b
4
9a
Cng ty
thanh
ton b
tr F
Trn Tun Vinh
MG ca
ngi bn
MG sn
bn bn
8b
9b
Thnh
vin thanh
ton bn
bn
202
(1a), (1b): Ngi mua v ngi bn ch th cho mi gii ca mnh thc hin
mua/bn Future.
(2a), (2b): sau khi nhn c ch th ca nh u t, nhn vin mi gii ti cng ty
chng khon yu cu mi gii sn ca cng ty minh thc hin giao dch.
(3): Cc mi gii sn gp nhau trn sn giao dch Future v thng nht gi c.
(4): Thng tin giao dch c bo co v cho trung tm thanh ton b tr.
Trn Tun Vinh
203
(5a), (5b): Mi gii sn thng bo kt qu giao dch cho mi gii ti cng ty

(6a), (6b): Mi gii ca bn mua v bn s thc hin thng bo kt qu giao dch
cho nh u t.
(7a), (7b): Ngi mua/bn thc hin np k qu cho mi gii
(8a), (8b): Mi gii mua/bn k gi tin k qu cho thnh vin thanh ton ca
mnh
(9a), (9b): Cc cng ty thanh ton thc hin k qu cho trung tm thanh ton b
tr
Trn Tun Vinh
204
Thanh ton hng ngy

giao dch trn th trng Future, bn phi m mt ti khon gi l Margin
Account.
Khi giao dch bn phi np k qu ban u (Intial Margin) theo quy nh ca S

giao dch.
V phi duy tr mc k qu ti thiu (Maintance Margin) theo quy nh ca S.
Hng ngy, cng ty thanh ton b tr Future s nh gi li mc k qu theo gi

bin ng tng lai ca hng ha, nu mc k qu ny thp hn mc duy tr, s yu
cu NT ng thm tin (Margin Call)
Trn Tun Vinh
205
Khi lng theo F l 100 Oz, mc k qu ban u: 20% tng ng 19,000 USD, mc duy tr 10% tng ng
9,500 USD
Ngi mua
Ngy
Gi thanh
ton ngy
trc
1/8/2009
Gi thanh
ton hin
ti
iu chnh
li/l
950
Ngi bn
Dng tin
S d TK
19,000
19,000
iu chnh
li/l
Dng tin
S d TK
19,000
19,000
2/8/2009
950
960
1,000
20,000
(1,000)
18,000
3/8/2009
960
965
500
20,500
(500)
17,500
4/8/2009
965
980
1,500
22,000
(1,500)
16,000
5/8/2009
980
1,000
2,000
24,000
(2,000)
14,000
6/8/2009
1,000
1,020
2,000
26,000
(2,000)
12,000
7/8/2009
1,020
1,040
2,000
28,000
(2,000)
10,000
8/8/2009
1,040
1,080
4,000
32,000
(4,000)
6,000
8/9/2009
1,080
1,070
(1,000)
31,000
1,000
Trn Tun Vinh
3,500
10,500
206
Trn Tun Vinh
207
Phn tch k thut

Technical Analysis (TA)
Ths. Trn Tun Vinh GV. i hc Ngn hng TP.HCM
Trn Tun Vinh
208
Nhng cu hi nh u t thng t ra?

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Giai on ny u t c cha?
Nn u t vo c phiu no? Hay c phiu ny u t c khng?
Thi im no nn mua?
Mc gi ny cht li c cha? Hay th trng cn tng na khng?
Gi xung bao nhiu th ct l hay gi xung qu c nn ct l khng?
Trn Tun Vinh
209
Ti liu tham kho
James Dicks (2004), Forex Made Easy: 6 ways to trade the Dollars, McGrawHill, USA.
Nelson Tao (1998), Technical Analysis is not magic, it is not an art, it is not a
science, it is simply your own effort anh discipline, Standard Chartered Bank,
Singapore.
Martin Pring (1997), Martin Prings introdution to technical analysis, McGrawHill, USA.
Martin J.Pring (2002), How to select stocks using Technical Analysis, McGrawHill, USA.
Alan Tan (2006), Focus on Technical Analysis, Reuters.
John J. Murphy (1998), Technical Analysis of Financial Markets: a
comprehensive guide to trading methods and applications, Prentice-Hall.
Robert D. Edwards & John Magee (2001), Technical Analysis of Stock Trend,
Amacom Management.
Martin J. Pring (1991), Technical Analysis Explained, McGraw-Hill, USA
Hc vin ti chnh c (CEREFI) (2006), Phn tch k thut u t chng khon,
TP.HCM
Trn Tun Vinh
210
Nhng iu cn c nhn thc

Ngui c thi quen, th trng c to bi con ngi; v vy, th trng cng c thi quen;
bit c thi quen ca th trng, s kim sot c th trng
1200
VN IN DEX (356.080, 357.510, 348. 830, 350.140, -1.17999)
1150
1100
1050
1000
950
900
850
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
Nhim v ca nh phn tch

k thut l phi tm kim
c thi quen c th ca
tng loi th trng, t ,
d on din bin gi trong
thi gian ti, bng cch s
dng cc phng tin
PTKT c chun ha
350
300
250
200
2007
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
N ov
D ec
2008
Feb Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
N ov
D ec
2009
Mar
Apr
Trn Tun Vinh
May
211
Nhng iu cn c nhn thc
PTKT l mt ngh thut. Chnh v vy, i hi ngi thc hin PTKT phi linh hot trong t duy
v khng ngng sng to. PTKT s tr nn km hiu qu nu ngi phn tch cu ton v mong
mun mi th tht chnh xc; vic i PTKT trng en r rng s lm cho ngi phn tch mt i
c hi nhn thc c din bin ca th trng.
Vic c gng s dng PTKT d on mt cc chnh xc gi trong tng lai l mt sai lm.
PTKT ch cung cp nhng du hiu v mi tng quan gia cung v cu, t nh hng ti xu
hng gi.
Trn Tun Vinh
212
Ni dung bi ging
Phn 1: Nhng vn c bn ca PTKT
1. Lch s hnh thnh v pht trin ca PTKT
2. Nhng gi nh c bn ca PTKT
3. Cc nh ngha v PTKT
Phn 2: Cc kiu th c bn
1. th ng thng (Line Chart)
2. th thanh (Bar Chart)
3. th hnh nn (CandleStick Chart)
4. ngha ca cc yu t trong Bar Chart v CandleStick Chart
Trn Tun Vinh
213
Ni dung bi ging (tt)

Phn 3: L thuyt Dow
1. Gii thiu v Dow
2. Nhng ni dung c bn ca l thuyt Dow
3. Mt s ng dng l thuyt Dow
3.1 Phn tch xu hng ngn hn
3.2 ng xu hng (Trendlines)
4. Hn ch ca l thuyt Dow
Phn 4: Cc cng c phn tch k thut truyn thng
1. Khng c v h tr (Resistance & Support)
2. Cc m hnh gi (Price Patterns)
3. Cc dng thc c bit ca Candlestick (Candlestick Patterns)
Trn Tun Vinh
214
Ni dung bi ging (tt)

Phn 5: Cc ch bo PTKT (Indicators)
1. Nhm ch bo xu hng (Trailing Indicators): MA, MACD, Bolinger Band,
Envelopes, MDS, Parabolic SAR
2. Nhm ch bo dao ng (Momentum Indicators): RSI, Stochastic, ROC, Momentum
Phn 6: Cc phn mm PTKT

1. Metastock
2. Netdania.com
Phn 7: Mt s lu khi p dng PTKT
Trn Tun Vinh
215
Phn 1: Nhng vn c ca PTKT

1.
2.
3.
Lch s hnh thnh v pht trin PTKT

Nhng gi nh c bn ca PTKT
Cc nh ngha v PTKT
Trn Tun Vinh
216
Lch s pht trin ca PTKT

Lch s ca Phn tch k thut bt ngun t cch y hn 100 nm, t mt ngi tn l Charles H.
Dow, y l cha ca l thuyt Dow v t Wall Street.
William Peter Hamilton l ngi tip tc nghin cu v xut bn cun sch The Stock Market
Barometer (Phong v biu th trng chng khon) vo nm 1922, khng nh hn na gi tr l lun
ca nhng nghin cu ca Dow.
n thi Schabacker ngi cha ca Phn tch k thut hin i, th mi thc s ra i ci tn

Phn tch k thut vi tc phm Stock Market Theory and Practice, Technical Market Analysis and
Stock Market Profit.
n thi ca Edward v Magee vi Technical Analysis of Stock Trend (ti bn 8 ln) v sau
l John Murphy, Jack Schwager, Martin Pring, th Phn tch k thut mi thc s c pht trin, v
tr thnh mt h thng l lun quan trng trong phn tch u t.
Trn Tun Vinh
217
Cc gi nh quan trng ca TA
y c xem l nhng gi nh quan trng i vi gii chuyn mn, nhng i vi
cc tn TA, y l nhng tn iu, v ch khi no chng ta tin vo nhng iu ny th
chng ta mi cm nhn c PTKT.
1. Gi bao hm mi yu t ca th trng, gm c: cc thng tin cng b, cha cng
b, cc k vng ca tng nh u t V vy, h ch quan tm n cc tn hiu t gi ch
khng quan tm n cc nguyn nhn dn n gi tng hay gim. Bi v, nhng thng tin
ny nh hng ti gi s khng bao gi nht qun, m ty thuc k vng ca nh u t
tng giai on.
Trn Tun Vinh
218
Gi phn nh tt c hnh ng th
trng, bao gm:
Thng tin v m
Thng tin ca doanh nghip
Tm l ca nh u t
Nhng thng tin bit v cha bit
..
Trn Tun Vinh
Khng cn
thit phi
phn tch
c bn
219
Tun Vinh
nh hng ca gi du i viTrnvng
220
2. Gi bin ng theo xu hng: c th trong ngn hn gi bin ng mt cch ngu
hng, nhng nhng ngi theo trng phi TA lun tin rng trong di hn gi s i theo xu
hng
Trn Tun Vinh
221
Trn Tun Vinh
222
Trn Tun Vinh
223
Trn Tun Vinh
224
VN IN DEX (356.080, 357.510, 348. 830, 350.140, -1.17999)

1150
1100
1050
1000
950
900
850
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
September
N ov ember
2008
February
April
VN-Index t 2007 -2009
May
June
July
August
Trn Tun Vinh
September
N ov ember
2009
February
April
May
225
3. Bn cht con ngi kh thay i hay th trng c khuynh hng lp li cc thi-quen.
Trn Tun Vinh
226
Cc nh ngha v PTKT
Martin Pring (1991): Phn tch k thut phn nh quan im cho rng gi bin i
theo xu hng, xu hng ny c hnh thnh do s thay i trong thi ca ngi u t
i vi cung v cu. Ngh thut ca phn tch k thut hin nhin phn tch k thut l
mt ngh thut l ch xc nh c xu hng ngay khi bt u v duy tr u t cho
n khi c cc du hiu cho thy xu hng i chiu.
John Murphy (1986): Phn tch k thut nghin cu bin ng th trng, ch yu s
dng cc th nhm mc ch d bo xu hng gi trong tng lai nu cc nh phn tch
c c ba loi thng tin c bn ca s bin ng th trng l gi, khi lng v trng
thi m ca th trng.
Trn Tun Vinh
227
Cc nh ngha v PTKT
Theo quan im ca Tc gi: PTKT l vic s dng cc d liu qu kh ca gi (bao gm gi
ng ca, m ca, cao nht thp nht) l ch yu v khi lng giao dch (nu c), thng qua mt phn
mm chuyn dng v nn cc dng th ca gi v khi lng; t , tm kim c thi quen bin
ng ca gi trong qu kh, nh d on c xu hng ca gi trong tng lai. Da trn kt qu
ny xut chin lc kinh doanh gm ba bc:
1. Vo th trng (mua hoc bn)
2. Thot khi th trng, kim li (take profit)
3. Ct l (Stop loss)
Trn Tun Vinh
228
Phn 2: Cc kiu th c bn
1.
2.
3.
4.
th ng thng (Line Chart)

th thanh (Bar Chart)
th hnh nn (CandleStick Chart)
ngha ca cc yu t trong Bar Chart v CandleStick Chart
Trn Tun Vinh
229
th ng thng (Line chart)

225
220
215
210
205
200
195
190
185
180
175
170
165
160
155
150
145
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
VNM (168.000, 169.000, 167.000, 168.000, +0.00)
th ng thng (Line
chart): l dng th thng
c v bng cch ni cc mc
gi ng ca li vi nhau. Dng
xem xu hng di hn, t
dng kinh doanh ngn hn.
10000
5000
x100
2006
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Trn Tun Vinh
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2007
Feb Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2008
230
th thanh (Bar Chart)

th thanh (bar chart): th
thanh c dng ph bin cc nc
phng Ty. Thng thng th
thanh dng ch gi m, ng ca, gi
cao nht, thp nht trong mt n v
thi gian.
Gi c biu din thnh mt ct
thng ng. cao ca ct th hin
khong bin ng gi trong mt n v
thi gian. Vch bn tri biu hin gi
m ca, cn bn phi l gi ng ca.
Trn Tun Vinh
231
Cc dng th c bn
Biu
hnh
nn
(Candlesticks): y l
dng biu lu i, do
cc thng gia Nht pht
minh ra. Candlestick rt d
nhn ra thng tin, hnh
tng hn so vi cc loi
biu khc.
11.9
11.8
11.7
11.6
11.5
11.4
11.3
11.2
11.1
11.0
10.9
10.8
10.7
10.6
10.5
10.4
10.3
10.2
10.1
10.0
9.9
9.8
9.7
9.6
9.5
9.4
9.3
9.2
9.1
9.0
8.9
8.8
8.7
8.6
8.5
8.4
8.3
8.2
8.1
8.0
7.9
7.8
7.7
VIP (8.20000, 8.20000, 8.10000, 8.10000, +0.0000)
5
2009
12
19
Trn Tun Vinh
2
February
16
23
2
March
16
232
Candlestick
The highest price: cn trn (gi cao nht)
The lowest price: cn di (gi thp nht
Upper shadow: bng trn
Real body: thn nn, y l phn chnh
lch gia gi m ca v ng ca
The opening price: gi m ca
The closing price: gi ng ca
Khong bin ng gi: chnh lch gia
gi cao nht v thp nht
Trn Tun Vinh
233
Candlestick
C hai loi hnh cy nn ph bin
Cy nn tng (Bullish): thng thng
c t mu xanh hoc trng, th hin gi
ng ca cao hn gi m ca.
Cy nn gim (Bearish): thng thng
c t mu hoc mu en, th hin
gi ng ca thp hn gi m ca
Trn Tun Vinh
234
Candlestick trong MetaStock

H1
H2
H1: Gi ng ca
cao hn gi m ca
trong k v gi ng
ca k trc
H3
H1: Gi ng ca
cao hn gi m ca
trong k nhng thp
hn gi ng ca k
trc
H4
H1: Gi ng ca
thp hn gi m ca
trong k nhng cao
hn gi ng ca k
trc
H1: Gi ng ca
thp hn gi m ca
trong k v gi ng
ca k trc
Trn Tun Vinh
235
ngha ca cc yu t trong Bar Chart v CandleStick Chart
Gi m ca th hin nhng phn ng ca cng chng i vi nhng thng tin trc khi
th trng m ca. Nhng nh u t chuyn nghip t giao dch ti mc gi ny, bi v
h hnh ng theo quan im tch cc v cn trng hn i vi nhng g xut hin trn
th trng.
Gi ng ca l mc gi quan trng nht trong mt ngy. Bi v, y l mc gi dng
nh gi gi tr s d trn ti khon nhm tnh ton li l.
Gi cn trn: y l mc gi phn nh lc cu ti a trong ngy
Gi cn di: y l mc gi phn nh lc cung ti a trong ngy
Khong bin ng gi: phn nh mc nhit tnh giao dch ca bn chi phi th
trng
Trn Tun Vinh
236
Phn tch gi ng ca
So snh vi gi ng ca ca ngy lin trc

Nu gi ng ca ca ngy hm nay cao hn gi ng ca ca ngy hm qua th c
ngha l lc mua mnh hn lc bn.
Nu gi ng ca ca ngy hm nay thp hn ngy hm qua c ngha l lc bn mnh
hn lc mua.
Chnh lch gia hai mc gi ng ca cng ln th phn nh lc ca bn chi phi th
trng cng mnh
Trn Tun Vinh
237
Phn tch gi ng ca
V tr ca gi ng ca trong khong bin ng gi
Gi ng ca gn vi mc cn trn trong ngy, ngi mua
phi th trng vo thi im cui phin.
Gi ng ca gn vi mc cn di trong ngy, ngi bn
phi th trng vo thi im cui phin.
Gi ng ca gn vi im gia, phn nh khng bn no
phi th trng vo thi im cui ngy.
Gi ng ca cng gn vi cc u mt bao nhiu th lc
phi th trng cng mnh by nhiu
Trn Tun Vinh
chi
chi
chi
chi
238
Phn tch gi ng ca
Mi tng quan gia gi ng ca v m ca
Nu gi m ca gn vi mc cn di v gi ng ca gn vi mc
cn trn, ngi mua chi phi th trng c ngy. Mc gn vi cc im
mt cng nhiu th lc chi phi cng ln.
Nu gi m ca gn vi mc cn trn v gi ng ca gn vi mc
cn di, ngi bn chi phi th trng c ngy. Mc gn vi cc im
mt cng nhiu th lc chi phi cng ln.
Nu gi m ca v gi ng ca cng gn im cn trn, phn nh
bn bn chuyn dn quyn kim sot th trng cho bn mua vo cui
phin
Trn Tun Vinh
239
Phn tch gi ng ca
Mi tng quan gia gi ng ca v m ca
Nu gi m ca v gi ng ca cng gn im cn di, phn nh
bn mua chuyn dn quyn kim sot th trng cho bn bn vo cui
phin.
Nu gi m ca nm gia, gi ng ca nm gn cn trn, bn mua
chi phi th trng vo cui phin.
Nu gi m ca nm gia, gi ng ca nm gn cn di, bn bn
chi phi th trng vo cui phin.
Nu gi m ca v gi ng nm gia khong bin ng, khng c
bn no kim sot th trng
Trn Tun Vinh
240
Phn tch khong bin ng gi

Gi ang tng, i km khong bin ng
cng m rng, phn nh lc mua mnh dn.
Gi ang gim, i km khong bin ng

cng m rng, phn nh lc bn mnh dn.
Gi ang tng, i km khong bin ng

cng thu hp, phn nh lc mua yu dn.
Gi ang gim, i km khong bin ng

cng thu hp, phn nh lc bn yu dn.
ngy
ngy
ngy
ngy
Trn Tun Vinh
241
Phn tch khong bin ng gi

Ngy bin ng trong knh l ngy m ti
khong bin ng gi hon ton nm trong
khong bin ng gi ngy hm trc.
Ngy bin ng ngoi knh l ngy m ti

khong bin ng gi hon ton nm ngoi
khong bin ng gi ngy hm trc.
Khi ngy bin ng trong knh hoc ngoi

knh xut hin, th phn nh xu hng gi hin
ti b yu i
Inside day
Outside day
Trn Tun Vinh
242
Mt s du hiu o chiu ngn hn

1. o chiu gi ng ca v m ca (Close_Open Reversal)
Xu hng tng: xut hin mt ct gi trong c mc cn trn v cn di
cao nht trong xu hng, trong , gi m ca gn vi mc cn trn v gi ng
ca gn mc cn di nhng vn cao hn gi ng ca ca ngy hm trc
Xu hng gim: xut hin mt ct gi trong c mc cn trn v cn di
thp nht trong xu hng, trong , gi m ca gn vi mc cn di v gi ng
ca gn mc cn trn nhng vn thp hn gi ng ca ca ngy hm trc
Trn Tun Vinh
243
Trn Tun Vinh
244

o chiu gi ng ca (Reversal Bar)
Xu hng tng: xut hin mt ct gi trong c mc cn trn v cn di

cao nht trong xu hng, trong , gi m ca gn vi mc cn trn v gi ng
ca gn mc cn di ng thi thp hn gi ng ca ca ngy hm trc.
Xu hng gim: xut hin mt ct gi trong c mc cn trn v cn di
thp nht trong xu hng, trong , gi m ca gn vi mc cn di v gi ng
ca gn mc cn trn ng thi cao hn gi ng ca ca ngy hm trc.
Trn Tun Vinh
245
ng ca
thp hn
Trn Tun Vinh
ng ca
cao hn
246

o chiu dng mc kha (Key Reversal)
Xu hng tng:
xut hin mt ct gi c mc cn trn cao nht trong xu hng;
trong , gi m ca cao hn gi ng ca ca ct trc;
nhng gi ng ca li thp hn mc cn di ca ct trc.
Trn Tun Vinh
247
Open above last

close: m ca cao
hn ct trc
Clsoe
be
low
previous Low: ng
ca thp hn mc
cn di ca ct
trc
Trn Tun Vinh
248

o chiu dng mc kha (Key
Reversal)
Xu hng gim:
xut hin mt ct gi c mc cn di
thp nht trong xu hng;
trong , gi m ca thp hn gi ng
ca ca ct trc
nhng gi ng ca li cao hn mc cn
trn ca ct trc.
Close above previous High: ng

ca cao hn mc cn trn ca ct
trc.
Open below last Close: m ca thp
hn mc ng ca ca ct trc
Trn Tun Vinh
249

o chiu dng mc cu (Hook Reversal)
Xu hng tng:
Xut hin mt ct c mc cn trn thp hn v
mc cn di cao hn ct trc.
V gi m ca gn vi mc cn trn (Open
near High), gi ng ca gn vi mc cn di
(Close near Low)
Trn Tun Vinh
250

o chiu dng mc cu (Hook Reversal)
Xu hng gim:
Xut hin mt ct c mc cn trn thp hn
v mc cn di cao hn ct trc.
V gi m ca gn vi mc cn di (Open
near Low), gi ng ca gn vi mc cn trn
(Close near High)
Trn Tun Vinh
251

o chiu dng hn o (Island Reversal)
Xu hng tng
Xut hin mt ct gi c khong trng (Gap)
gia mc cn di v mc cn trn ca ct gi
trc .
Tip theo sau l mt ct gi c khong trng
gia mc cn trn v mc cn di ca ct trc
.
Trn Tun Vinh
252

o chiu dng hn o (Island
Reversal)
Xu hng tng
Hoc c th l dng qun o
(Cluster Island Reversal)
Trn Tun Vinh
253

o chiu dng hn o (Island
Reversal)
Xu hng gim
Xut hin mt ct gi c khong trng
(Gap) gia mc cn trn v mc cn di ca
ct gi trc .
Tip theo sau l mt ct gi c khong
trng gia mc cn di v mc cn trn ca
ct trc .
Trn Tun Vinh
254

o chiu dng tm im (Pivot
Point Reversal)
Xu hng ln:
Xut hin mt ct gi vi mc cn
trn v cn di cao nht trong xu hng.
Sau l mt ct gi c mc cn trn
thp hn v ng ca mc gi thp hn
mc cn di.
Trn Tun Vinh
255

o chiu dng tm im (Pivot
Point Reversal)
Xu hng xung:
Xut hin mt ct gi vi mc cn
trn v cn di thp nht trong xu hng.
Sau l mt ct gi c mc cn di
cao hn v ng ca mc gi cao hn
mc cn trn.
Trn Tun Vinh
256

o chiu dng tm im (Pivot Point Reversal): phc hp
Trn Tun Vinh
257
Phn 3: L thuyt Dow

1.
2.
3.
4.
Gii thiu v Dow

Nhng ni dung c bn ca l thuyt Dow
Mt s ng dng ca l thuyt Dow
3.1 Phn tch xu hng ngn hn
3.2 ng xu hng (Trendlines)
Hn ch ca l thuyt Dow
Trn Tun Vinh
258
Gii thiu l thuyt DOW

Dow tn y l Charles H.Dow (1851-1902),
l sng lp ca t bo Wall Street Journal; l ngi
khi xng ra trng phi PTKT bng s ra i ca l
thuyt Dow, v l ngi u tin a ra ch s trung
bnh Dow Jones.
L thuyt Dow ngy nay c hon thin v pht

trin bi ba nhn vt:
1. William Hamilton (1922), The Stock Market

Barometer (Phong v biu th trng chng khon).
2. S.A Nelson (1903), The ABC stock Speculation
(Bi hc v lng v u c c phiu).
3. Robert Rhea (1932)
Trn Tun Vinh
259

VNINDEX (334.430, 340.010, 334.430, 340.010, +26.2500)
6 Nhn nh ca DOW:
1. Phn ln cc chng khon tun

theo xu hng c bn ca th trng.
Xu th xu hng c bn ca th trng
chnh l xu hng ca ch s gi bnh
qun - phn nh xu th chung ca mt
s c phiu i din cho th trng.
2006 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2007 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2008
Mar Apr May
1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
950
900
850
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 Mar Apr
VN M (86. 0000, 88.5000, 85.0000, 88.5000, +6.00000)
VNM
220
215
210
205
200
195
190
185
180
175
170
165
160
155
150
145
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
2006
Apr May J un J ul
Trn Tun Vinh
Aug
Sep Oct N ov D ec 2007
Mar
Apr May J un J ul
Aug Sep
N ov D ec 2008
Mar Apr May
J ul
Aug Sep Oct
N ov D ec 2009
Mar
Apr
260

6 Nhn
DOW:
nh
ca
2. Th trng c 3 s
chuyn dch: S dch
chuyn chnh: (primary
movement), nhng phn
ng th cp: (secondary
reaction), nhng s dch
chuyn
nh:
(minor
movements)
S dch chuyn chnh: ko di t nhiu thng n vi nm;

c bit n vi 2 dng: th trng con b (Bullish) l th trng
tng v th trng con gu (Bearish) l th trng gim.
Nhng phn ng th cp: L s st gim ng k trong th

trng u c gi ln hoc mt s tng gi ng k trong th
trng u c gi xung, Khong cch dch chuyn nhn chung
thoi li t 33%-66% (1/3 n 2/3) so vi lung dch chuyn
trc , ko di t 3 tun n nhiu thng.
S chuyn dch nh: khng quan trng, chnh l s bin

ng gi theo ngy
Trn Tun Vinh
261
Trn Tun Vinh
262

6 Nhn nh ca DOW:
3. Mi lung vn ng chnh
thng xy ra trong ba giai on
ring bit.
Th trng tng (Bullish)
Giai on ly li nim tin (Receiving Cofidence): th

hin hnh ng tch ly mua (accumulation phase) c hiu
bit ca mt s nh u t, chng li kin chung ca c th
trng.
Giai on ci thin li nhun (Improving Earnings):

cc cng ty kinh doanh li; u tin l s gia nhp ca cc
nh u c, khi xu hng tr nn r rng th cng chng s
tham gia.
Giai on u c mnh m (Rampant Speculation): th

hin hnh ng mua mnh m ca cc nh u c. Cui giai
on ny lm pht bt u xut hin.
Trn Tun Vinh
263
VN IN DEX (334.430, 340.010, 334. 430, 340.010, +26.2500)
1250
1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
950
900
850
800
750
700
650
Speculation
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
Public Participation
200
150
Accumulation
100
50
Tran Tuan Vinh (2009)

J
2004 M
M J
O N
2005 M
M J
Trn Tun Vinh
2006 M
A M J
2007 M
A M
264

6 Nhn nh ca
DOW:
3. Mi lung vn
ng chnh thng xy ra
trong ba giai on ring
bit.
Th
(Bearish)
trng
gim
Giai on mt i hy vng (Abandonment of hopes): th hin

hnh ng tch ly bn (accumulation phase) c hiu bit ca
mt s nh u t, chng li kin chung ca c th trng, do
khng cn hy vng gi tng na.
Giai on st gim li nhun (Decreasing Earnings): LN ca

cc cng ty st gim; cng chng tham gi bn c phiu do nhn
c nhng thng tin xu t li nhun ca cc cng ty.
Giai on bn cng thng (Distress selling): y l giai on

cng chng bn tho trong cng thng do kh bn c d l c
phiu tt.
Trn Tun Vinh
265
VN IN DEX (418.750, 427.630, 418. 440, 426.430, +14.7900)
Tran Tuan Vinh
HET HY VONG
1250
1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
950
LOI NHUAN GIAM
900
850
800
750
700
650
BAN CANG THANG
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
2006 Jul
Aug Sep Oct N ov D ec 2007
Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Aug Sep Oct
N ov D ec 2008
Trn Tun Vinh
Mar Apr May
Jul
Aug Sep Oct
N ov D ec 2009
Mar Apr May Jun
266

6 Nhn nh ca Dow
4. Gi xc nh xu hng ca th trng: du hiu tng gi c a ra khi s tng gi

lin tip to ra cc nh cao hn v s gim gi xen vo to thnh cc y cao hn. V
ngc li, khi mc gi khng th t n mc gi cao trc , v xung thp hn mc thp
trc l du hiu ca th trng gi xung
Trn Tun Vinh
267

Xc nh th trng gi ln:
Kt thc xu
hng tng
Xu hng th trng gi ln bt
u khi ta thy xut hin mt y cao
hn v sau l mt nh cao hn.
Xu hng th trng gi ln kt
thc khi ta thy xut hin mt nh
thp hn v mt y thp hn.
Bt u xu
hng tng
Trn Tun Vinh
268

Xc nh th trng gi xung:
Xu hng th trng gi xung bt

u khi ta thy xut hin mt nh thp
hn v sau l mt y thp hn.
Xu hng th trng gi xung kt
thc khi ta thy xut hin mt y cao hn
v sau l mt nh cao hn.
Trn Tun Vinh
Bt u
gi gim
Kt thc
gim gi
269
ng xu hng (Trendline)
ng xu hng tng (Up trendline): l mt ng thng ni lin cc y v hng
ln trn.
Trn Tun Vinh
270
ng xu hng gim (Down trendline): l mt ng thng ni lin cc nh v
hng xung.
Trn Tun Vinh
271
ng xu hng ngang (Sideway/Non trendline): l mt ng thng nm ngang ni
lin cc nh hoc cc y li vi nhau
Trn Tun Vinh
272
Trn Tun Vinh
273
Mt s ng dng quan im 4
2. V ng xu hng:
B1: Xc nh xu hng ca th trng theo quan im 4 ca Dow: Xu hng tng
bt u bng mt y cao hn sau l mt nh cao hn. Cn xu hng gim bt u
bng mt nh thp hn v sau l mt y thp hn.
B2: V ng xu hng tm thi bng cch ni hai im y hng ln i vi xu
hng tng v hai im nh hng xung i vi xu hng gim.
B3: ng xu hng c khng nh khi xut hin im nh th 3 (i vi xu
hng gim) hoc im y th 3 (i vi xu hng tng) tip xc vi ng xu hng
tm thi.
Trn Tun Vinh
274
er 2009
KD C (65.0000, 65.0000, 64. 0000, 64.0000, +0.000)
Resisitance
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
O
Trendline
35
30
25
20
15
10
February March
April
May
June
July
August
September
Trn Tun Vinh
N ov ember D ecember 2010
February
April
275
1.
C 2 tnh hung xy ra khi ng xu hng b ph v

Hnh thnh xu hng mi ngc vi xu hng c, gi l o chiu
Trn Tun Vinh
276
C 2 tnh hung xy ra khi ng xu hng b ph v
2. Ch l s gin on tm thi ca xu hng hin ti, sau s tip tc xu hng ny
Trn Tun Vinh
277
Mc mnh yu ca Trendline
ng xu hng d ph v gi l ng xu hng yu.
ng xu hng kh ph v gi l ng xu hng mnh
Mc mnh yu ca ng xu hng ph thuc vo 3 yu t: di thi gian, s ln
tip im ca gi v nghing ca ng xu hng.
Mt trendline mnh, c: di thi gian ln, hoc s ln tip im nhiu, hoc
nghing t, hoc kt hp nhiu yu t trn.
Mt trendline yu, c: di thi gian nh, hoc s ln tip im t, hoc nghing
nhiu, hoc kt hp nhiu yu t trn.
Trn Tun Vinh
278
Mt trendline yu khi b ph v s khng to ra mt kt qu ln, thng thng ch lm
gin on xu hng hin ti
Trn Tun Vinh
279
Mt trendline mnh khi b ph v s to ra mt kt qu ln, thng thng lm xut hin
mt xu hng mi ngc chiu.
Trn Tun Vinh
280
Thi quen, xu hng v
chin lc kinh doanh
1. Khi mt up trendline mnh
bi ph v, gi s c xu hng
xung. Chin lc kinh doanh: bn
khi gi xung di ng xu
hng, cht li khi gi gim xung
mt on ng bng khong cch
ln nht gia gi v ng
trendline trong qu kh, ct l khi
gi t ngt tng li qua ng
trendline.
Trn Tun Vinh
281
Thi quen, xu hng v
chin lc kinh doanh
2. Khi mt down trendline
mnh bi ph v, gi s c xu hng
ln. Chin lc kinh doanh: mua
khi gi tng trn ng xu hng,
cht li khi gi tng ln mt on
ng bng khong cch ln nht
gia gi v ng trendline trong
qu kh, ct l khi gi t ngt
xung li qua ng trendline.
Trn Tun Vinh
282

6 Nhn nh ca Dow
5. C hai ch s trung bnh cng nghip v ng st phi khng nh xu hng th

xu hng mi xc thc. Vit Nam, chng ta c th p dng cho VN-Index v
HASTC-Index.
6. Khi lng giao dch l mt bng chng h tr cho xu hng gi.
PRICE
UP
UP
DOWN
DOWN
VOLUME
UP
DOWN
UP
DOWN
Trn Tun Vinh
MARKET
STRONG
WARNING SIGN
WEAK
WARNING SIGN
283
Nhc im ca l thuyt Dow
Khng ng dng c trong th trng giao dch khng xu hng (Sideway).

Lun phn ng chm hn din bin gi ca th trng
Bt u
gi gim
Bt u
gi tng
Trn Tun Vinh
284
Phn 4: Cc cng c PTKT truyn thng

1.
2.
3.
Khng c h tr (Resistance & Support)

Cc m hnh gi (Price Patterns)
Cc dng thc c bit ca Candlestick (Candlestick Patterns)
Trn Tun Vinh
285
Khng c v h tr (Resistance Support)

Khng c (Resistance): l vng gi m
ni lng cung tng mnh vt qua lng cu
hin ti, lm gi ang tng t ngt o chiu,
thng thng l mc nh trc trong qu kh
H tr (Support): l vng gi m ni
lng cu tng mnh vt qua lng cung hin
ti, lm gi ang gim t ngt o chiu, thng
thng l mc y trc trong qu kh
Trn Tun Vinh
286

Thi quen, xu hng v chin
lc kinh doanh
1. Khi gi tng mnh v ph v
ngng khng c mnh (gm nhiu
nh) s tip tc tng. Chin lc kinh
doanh: mua khi gi vt qua mc khng
c, cht li ti mc khng c tip theo,
dng l khi gi o chiu xung di
mc khng c
Trn Tun Vinh
287

Thi quen, xu hng v
chin lc kinh doanh
2. Khi gi gim mnh v ph
v ngng h tr mnh (gm
nhiu y) s tip tc gim. Chin
lc kinh doanh: bn khi gi vt
qua mc h tr, cht li ti mc
h tr tip theo, dng l khi gi
o chiu ln trn mc h tr
Trn Tun Vinh
288

Thi quen, xu hng v chin
lc kinh doanh
3. Khi gi ph v ngng
khng c mnh hay c thi quen
quay li mc gi trn, lc ny mc
khng c s tr thnh mc h tr
mnh. Chin lc kinh doanh: mua
khi gi quay li mc khng c, cht
li ti mc khng c tip theo, dng
l khi gi o chiu xung di mc
khng c.
Trn Tun Vinh
289

Thi quen, xu hng v
chin lc kinh doanh
4. Khi gi ph v ngng h
tr mnh hay c thi quen quay li
mc gi trn, lc ny mc h tr s
tr thnh mc khng c mnh.
Chin lc kinh doanh: bn khi gi
quay li mc h tr, cht li ti
mc h tr tip theo, dng l khi
gi o chiu ln trn mc h tr.
Trn Tun Vinh
290

Thi quen, xu hng v
chin lc kinh doanh
5. Khi gi t ngt tng
mnh gp phi mc khng c bnh
thng m khng vt qua c
th gi s rt li mnh. Chin lc
kinh doanh: bn khi gi gim di
mc khng c, cht li ti mc h
tr pha di, ct l khi gi quay
li vt ln ngng khng c
Trn Tun Vinh
291

Thi quen, xu hng
v chin lc kinh doanh
6. Khi gi t ngt gim
mnh gp phi mc h tr
bnh thng m khng vt
qua c th gi s tng li
mnh. Chin lc kinh doanh:
mua khi gi tng ln mc h
tr, cht li ti mc khng c
pha trn, ct l khi gi quay
li xung di ngng h tr.
Trn Tun Vinh
292
Tnh hung vng
Trn Tun Vinh
293
Lch s
Leonardo Fibonacci tn tht l Leonardo Pisano, l
mt nh ton hc sng vo khong th k 12 -13 ti Pisa
(Italy).
Nm 1202 ng xut bn tc phm Liber Abaci (Mt

cun sch v tnh ton). Cun sch :
Gii thiu v c v cho vic s dng h k s
Hindu- Rp chu u thay cho h s La M
Gii thiu v h thng ha dy s Fibonacci
(1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,) da trn nhng quan st v Kim
t thp Gizeh Ai Cp v k tha dy s c pht hin
bi cc nh ton hc n t TK 6
Trn Tun Vinh
294

S dng Phng php Fibonacci xc nh R-S
Dy s Fibonacci c nh ton hc Leonardo Fibonancci to ra vo nhng nm
1200s, bng cch thc: bt u dy s l hai s 0, 1; cc s tip theo c tnh bng tng hai
s lin trc:
0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144,233,377.
T l vng: nu chng ta ly bt k mt s trong dy s FB chia cho s lin trc n
th kt qu xoay quanh t l 1.618. Ngc li, nu ly bt k mt s ca dy FB chia cho s
lin sau n th kt qu xoay quanh t l 0.618
Trn Tun Vinh
295
Dy FB
S ln chia s
nh lin trc
S nh chia s
ln hn 1 bc
S nh chia s
ln hn 2 bc
S nh chia s
ln hn 3 bc
0
1
1
1.000
100.0%
0.0%
2.000
50.0%
50.0%
0.0%
1.500
66.7%
33.3%
33.3%
1.667
60.0%
40.0%
20.0%
1.600
62.5%
37.5%
25.0%
13
1.625
61.5%
38.5%
23.1%
21
1.615
61.9%
38.1%
23.8%
34
1.619
61.8%
38.2%
23.5%
55
1.618
61.8%
38.2%
23.6%
89
1.618
61.8%
38.2%
23.6%
144
1.618
61.8%
38.2%
23.6%
233
1.618
61.8%
38.2%
23.6%
377
1.618
61.8%
38.2%
23.6%
610
1.618
61.8%
38.2%
23.6%
987
1.618
61.8%
38.2%
23.6%
1597
1.618
61.8%
Trn Tun Vinh
38.2%
23.6%
296
T l vng trong t nhin
Trn Tun Vinh
297
T l vng vi con ngi v thi trang
Trn Tun Vinh
298
T l vng trong thit k cng nghip
Trn Tun Vinh
299
T l vng trong y khoa nha khoa
Trn Tun Vinh
300
T l vng trong kin trc
Trn Tun Vinh
301
Fibonacci trong PTKT
S dng dy s Fibonacci l mt trong nhng phng php xc nh cc im h tr

v khng c.
Dy Fibonacci thng c ng dng trong PTKT di nhiu dng:

S hi li (Fibonacci Retracements)
Dng cung (Fibonacci Arcs),
Dng qut (Fibonacci Fans)
Vng thi gian ( Time Zones)
Trn Tun Vinh
302
Fibonacci Retracements
Fibonacci Retracements c to thnh bng cch v ng xu hng ni 2 im cc
tr, t mt y n mt nh hoc ngc li.
Cc ng ngang s c thit lp cc mc tng ng vi t l Fibonacci: 0%

(nh hoc y), 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 76.4% v 100% (nh hoc y), hoc m
rng mc cc mc 261.8% v 423.6%.
Sau mi t bin ng gi (tng hay gim), gi thng c xu hng hi li mt t l

ng k so vi s dch chuyn ban u. Khi gi bin ng hay hi li mc khng c v h
tr thng xut hin gn cc mc Fibonacci Retracement.
Trn Tun Vinh
303
Fibonacci Retracements
Trong k thut s dng Fibonacci Retracements vic xc nh cc im v y ban

u ng vai tr quan trng.
Cc mc Retracements cng c mc ngha khc nhau. H tr v khng c

thng xut hin hn gn cc im 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%.
Trn Tun Vinh
304
VN IN DEX (418.750, 427.630, 418. 440, 426.430, +14.7900)
1250
1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
950
900
850
800
750
700
650
0.0%
600
550
23.6%
500
450
38.2%
400
50.0%
350
61.8%
300
250
200
150
100.0%
100
50
2003 A S O N D 2004
A M J J A S O N D 2005
Trn Tun Vinh
A M
J A S O N D 2009
A MJ
305
VN IN DEX (418.750, 427.630, 418. 440, 426.430, +14.7900)
600
590
580
570
100.0%
560
550
540
530
520
510
61.8%
500
490
480
470
460
450
440
430
420
50.0%
38.2%
23.6%
0.0%
410
400
390
380
370
360
350
340
330
320
310
300
290
280
270
260
250
240
230
220
210
July
August
September
Oct ober
N ov ember
D ecember
2009
Trn Tun Vinh
February
March
April
May
June
306
Fibonacci Arcs
Fibonacci Arcs c thit lp bng cch trc tin v mt ng xu hng t 2

im cc tr, t im y n nh i din hoc ngc li.
Sau 3 ng hnh cung s c xy dng vi tm l mt trong hai im cc tr

v ct ng xu hng ti cc t l Fibonacci 38.2%, 50% v 61.8%.
Fibonacci Arcs thng c xem l cc mc h tr v khng c tim nng.
Trn Tun Vinh
307
Fibonacci Arcs
Trn Tun Vinh
308
Fibonacci Fans
Fibonacci Fans c thit lp t mt ng xu hng c v t nh n y i

din v ngc li. Sau , mt trc dc v hnh c v qua im cc tr th 2
(nh hoc y).
3 ng xu hng s c v t im cc tr th nht ct trc dc ti cc mc

38.2%, 50%, 61.8%. (Vi 2 im nh v y tng ng 0% v 100%).
Ty tng trng hp cc ng ny c th xem l cc ng h tr v khng c

trong PTKT.
Trn Tun Vinh
309
Fibonacci Fans
Trn Tun Vinh
310
Fibonacci Time Zones
Fibonacci Time Zones c thit lp bi vic chia th bng cc trc thng

ng vi khong cch tun theo dy Fibonacci (1,1,2,3,5,8,).
Cc thay i gi mnh thng nm gn cc trc dc ny.
Trn Tun Vinh
311
Fibonacci Time Zones
Trn Tun Vinh
312
L thuyt sng Elliott
Lch s hnh thnh
Nguyn l c bn ca EWP
ng dng
Trn Tun Vinh
313
Lch s hnh thnh

Nm 1938, cng trnh nghin cu mang tn Nguyn tc sng (The Wave Principle) hay
Nguyn tc sng Elliott (Elliott Wave Principle - EWP) c cng b ln u tin, gii thiu
v nghin cu ca Ralph Nelson Elliott.
Thuyt ny chu nhiu nh hng t thuyt Dow (Dow theory) v bn thn R. N. Elliott
cho rng thuyt ca ng l mt b sung cn thit cho thuyt Dow.
Nm 1946, Elliott hon tt vic nghin cu nguyn tc sng v cng b tc phm, Quy
lut t nhin - b n ca V tr(Natures Law Secret of the Universe).
Trn Tun Vinh
314
Lch s hnh thnh

Elliott nhn thy th trng bin ng theo nhng chu k phn nh nhiu yu t khc
nhau. Nhng t bin ng tng hay gim ca th trng lun lun bc l qua mt s m
hnh c bn, c th l di dng sng (waves). Cc sng ny c th lp i lp li v hnh th,
nhng khng nht thit lp li v thi gian v ln.
Nm 1978, A.J.Frost v Robert Prechter b sung, h thng ha v gii thch r hn

v l thuyt ny trong cun sch Nguyn tc sng Elliot (Elliott Wave Principle - EWP)
Trn Tun Vinh
315
Nguyn l c bn ca EWP
C 3 kha cnh c bn ca l thuyt sng:
Cc dng mu (Pattern): L cc dng thc bc sng c lp i lp li. y c
coi l yu t quan trng nht trong l thuyt sng.
Phn tch t l (Ratio Analysis): Nhm xc nh cc im hi li v cc mc gi

mc tiu bng vic xc nh t l gia cc sng khc nhau.
Thi gian (Time) : L yu t c th gip khng nh thm v dng mu v t l ca
cc bc sng. y l c xem l yu t t quan trng nht trong cc yu t.
Trn Tun Vinh
316
Pattern
Dng thc c bn.
Chu k hon tt
Dng thc bao qut
Sng iu chnh
Trn Tun Vinh
317
Dng thc c bn The Basic Pattern (H1)
Trn Tun Vinh
318
Dng thc c bn
C hai dng thc pht trin ca sng : Vn ng (Motive) v iu chnh (Corrective).
Vn ng c cu thnh bi 5 bc sng, iu chnh c cu thnh bi 3 bc sng.
Cc bc sng 1 3 5 th hin xu hng vn ng chnh ang chi phi mnh m th

trng.
Cc bc sng 2 4 th hin s iu chnh hi li mt phn hng vn ng ca sng

trc .
Trn Tun Vinh
319
Chu k hon tt (Complete Cycle) - H1
Trn Tun Vinh
320
Chu k hon tt
EWP cho rng th trng i theo mt nhp iu ca 5 bc sng tng v sau l 3 bc
sng gim. Khi th trng thc hin xong mt chu k hon tt ( Complete Cycle).
Mt chu k hon tt bao gm 8 bc sng: 5 bc sng tng v 3 bc sng gim.
Trn Tun Vinh
321
Chu k hon tt
trong chu k tng (Bullish Numberred Phase) cc bc sng c nh s. Cc sng 1 3
5 l cc sng tng (cn gi l cc bc sng y Implulse waves). Cc bc sng 2-4 l
bc sng gim, ngc li vi xu hng tng (Cn gi l bc sng iu chnh - Corrective
waves).
Sau khi 5 bc sng trong giai on nh s (Numberred Phase - Bullish) kt thc, giai on
iu chnh gim (Bearish Letterred Phase) s bt u vi 3 bc sng iu chnh a, b,c (
trong a v c l bc sng gim, b l bc sng tng).
Trn Tun Vinh
322
Dng thc bao qut

M hnh 8 bc sng trn l khun mu ca thuyt Elliott, tuy nhin ln (
rng) ca xu hng hay chu k li rt a dng.
Elliott phn ln ca xu hng thnh 9 cp t chu k v i (Grand

Supercycle) ko di ln n hng trm nm n chu k nh nht (Subminuette) ch bao
qut vi gi giao dch. Do vy xem xt n ln ca xu hng cng ng vai tr rt
quan trng.
im cn ghi nh y l 8 bc sng c bn trong chu k vn c duy tr bt k

ln ca xu hng m chng ta ang xem xt.
Trn Tun Vinh
323
Dng thc bao qut

Mt sng c th c chia thnh cc bc sng mc nh hn, cc bc sng nh ny c
th c chia thnh cc bc sng nh hn na. M hnh 8 bc sng ca mt chu k c th
ng vai tr mt bc sng ca mt chu k ln hn.
V d: Hai bc sng 1 v 2 c th c chia thnh 8 bc sng nh hn v sau
c th c chia thnh 34 bc sng nh hn. Tuy nhin hai bc sng ny ch l 2 bc
sng u tin trong chu k tng bao gm 5 bc sng ln hn..
Trn Tun Vinh
324
Dng thc bao qut

Nguyn tc chia bc sng:
Mi bc sng nh s 1 n 5 ( Numberred Phase) c cu thnh t 5 hoc 3

bc sng nh hn.
Qu trnh tch nh cc bc sng tun theo quy lut v xu hng. Cc bc sng
(1), (3), (5) l sng tng, cng chiu vi xu hng chnh tng ( Circle Bull Market) nn bao
gm 5 bc sng nh hn. Trong khi , sng (2) v (4) i ngc chiu vi xu hng chnh
nn ch cu thnh t 3 bc sng nh hn.
Tng t cho cc sng iu chnh (a), (b), (c). Cc bc sng (a) v (c) l sng
gim, cng chiu vi xu hng chnh gim (Cycle Bear Market) nn bao gm 5 bc sng
nh hn. Bc sng (b) l bc sng tng ngc vi xu hng chnh ca th trng nn ch
cu thnh t 3 bc sng nh hn.
Trn Tun Vinh
325
Dng thc bao qut ( H2)

Frost and Prechter
Trn Tun Vinh
326
Phn tch t l - Ratio Analysis

Trong cc bc sng vn ng (Motive wave)
Bc sng 2 khng bao gi hi li qu 100% bc sng 1.

Bc sng 4 khng bao gi hi li qu 100% bc sng 3.
Bc sng 3 thng ln nht v khng bao gi l nh nht trong cc bc sng
1-3-5.
Mt trong 3 bc sng y (impulse) thng c xu hng m rng. Hai bc

cn li c xu hng bng nhau v thi gian v ln.Nu bc sng 5 m rng, bc 1 v
3 s bng nhau. Nu bc 3 m rng, bc 1 v 5 s c xu hng bng.
Trn Tun Vinh
327
Ratio Analysis
Bc sng th 2 ( Wave 2):
Wave 2 = 38.2% * Wave1
= 50% * Wave 1
= 61.8%* Wave 1
Bc sng th 3 (Wave 3): im mc tiu ca bc sng 3 l :
Wave 3 = 1.618 wave 1
Wave 3 = 2 1.618 wave 1 ( Trng hp m rng)
Bc sng th 4 ( Wave 4):
Wave 4 = 38.2% * Wave 3
= 50% * Wave 3
= 61.8%* Wave 3
Trn Tun Vinh
328
Ratio Analysis
Bc sng th 5 (Wave 5): im mc tiu ca bc sng 5 l :
Maximum targer : Wave 5 = 2 1.618 wave 1 + nh bc sng 1

Minimum targer : Wave 5 = 2 1.618 wave 1 + y bc sng 1
Nu bc sng 1 v 3 bng nhau, bc sng 5 c k vng l s m rng, mc gi mc
tiu c th c tnh bng cch : ly khong cch t y bc sng 1 n nh bc sng 3
nhn vi 1.618 v cng vo y bc sng 4.
Trn Tun Vinh
329
Ratio Analysis
n = 0.382*x
y = 1.618*x
Minimum z = 2*1.618*x Maximum z = 2*1.618*x + x
Z m rng = 1.618*(x + y n) + m
Trn Tun Vinh
330
Ratio Analysis
Trn Tun Vinh
331
Ratio Analysis (Corrective Waves)
Trn Tun Vinh
332
Ratio Analysis (Motive Waves) - Mt vi dng
Trn Tun Vinh
333
Ratio Analysis ( Corrective Waves)
Trong bc sng iu chnh (Corrective Wave):

Trong dng Zig zags 5-3-5 bc sng c c xu hng bng a.
Trong dng Flat 3-3-5, nu sng b vt qua nh ca sng a, sng c s bng
1.618 sng a
Trn Tun Vinh
334
Ratio Analysis Zig - Zags
Trn Tun Vinh
335
Ratio Analysis Flat
Trn Tun Vinh
336
Ratio Analysis Flat
Trn Tun Vinh
337
Cc m hnh trong PTKT
Triangles (tam gic)

Rectangles (hnh ch nht)
Flags and pennants (l c)
Head and shoulders (u_vai)
Double and triple tops/bottoms
Wedges (Cy nm)
Rounding tops/bottoms (y hoc nh vng cung)
The Cup with Handle
The Saucer
Trn Tun Vinh
338
Triangeles (Tam gic)
Tam gic nh bng (Flat top triangle)
Trn Tun Vinh
339
Trn Tun Vinh
340
Trn Tun Vinh
341
Tam gic y bng (Flat bottom triangle)
Trn Tun Vinh
342
Trn Tun Vinh
343
Tam gic cn (Equilateral triangle)
Trn Tun Vinh
344
Trn Tun Vinh
345
Retangles
Trn Tun Vinh
346
Trn Tun Vinh
347
Flags and Pennants

Bullish Flag
Trn Tun Vinh
348
Flags and Pennants

Bearish Flag
Trn Tun Vinh
349
Flags and Pennants

Pennant
Trn Tun Vinh
350
Trn Tun Vinh
351
Head and shoulders
Trn Tun Vinh
352
VN IN DEX (424.100, 430.780, 424. 100, 427.050, +8.50000)
Tran Tuan Vinh (2009)
900
850
800
750
700
650
H
S
600
550
500
450
400
Neckline
350
300
250
200
February
April
May
June
July
August
September
N ov ember
Trn Tun Vinh
2009
February March
April
May
June
July
353
Trn Tun Vinh
354
Oct N ov D ec 2007
VN IN DEX (528.160, 549.620, 513. 490, 547.990, +19.5000)
1250
1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
950
900
850
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
Right Shoulder
350
Right Shoulder
300
250
Head
Mar
Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep Oct N ov D ec 2008
Mar Apr
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Trn Tun Vinh
N ov D ec 2009
Mar Apr
200
May Jun Jul
Aug Sep Oct
N ov
355
Trn Tun Vinh
356
Trn Tun Vinh
357
DOUBLE-TRIPLE TOPS/BOTTOMS
Double Top (2 nh)
Double Bottom (2 nh)
Trn Tun Vinh
358
Trn Tun Vinh
359
Trn Tun Vinh
360
Trn Tun Vinh
361
DOUBLE-TRIPLE TOPS/BOTTOMS
Triple Top (2 nh)
Triple Bottom (2 nh)
Trn Tun Vinh
362
Wedge (Cy nm)
Trn Tun Vinh
363
VN IN DEX (539.900, 542.000, 536. 110, 536.110, -1.70001)
570
560
550
540
530
520
510
500
490
480
470
460
450
440
430
420
410
400
Wedge
390
380
370
360
350
340
330
320
310
300
290
280
270
260
250
240
230
16
23
30
7
April
13
20
27 4
May
11
18
25
1
June
15
22
29
6
July
Trn Tun Vinh
13
20
27
3
10
August
17
24
31 7
14
September
21
364
Rounding tops/bottoms
Rounding Tops
Rounding Bottoms
Trn Tun Vinh
365
The Cup with Handle (Ci tch)
Trn Tun Vinh
366
Trn Tun Vinh
367
The Saucer (Ci nong)
Trn Tun Vinh
368
SNG (62.9000, 63.0000, 59.5000, 61.1000, -0.90000)
260
250
100.0%
240
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
61.8%
150
140
50.0%
130
120
110
38.2%
100
90
Saucer
80
23.6%
70
Break Out
60
50
40
30
20
0.0%
10
0
2007
Nov
Dec
2008
Feb Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Trn Tun Vinh
Dec
2009
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
369
Cc dng thc c bit ca Candlestick

1.
2.
Dng thc o chiu (Reversal Patterns)

1.1 Cy ba v ngi treo c (Hammers and Hanging men)
1.2 m my m bao ph (Dark Cloud Cover)
1.3 Piercing Line
1.4 Dng thc lp y (Engulfing Patterns)
1.5 Ngi sao (Stars)
Dng thc tip tc xu hng (Continution Patterns)
2.1 Khong trng tng v khong trng gim (Upside and Downside Gaps)
2.2 Phng thc ba tng v phng thc ba gim (Rising-three and Falling-three
Methods)
Trn Tun Vinh
370

Cy ba (Hammer)
- c hnh thnh sau 1 lot ngy gim gi lin tc (xu
hng gim chim u th).
- Cy ba hnh thnh l mt ngy m khi m ca gi gim
nhng cui ngy gi tng li v ng ca gn mc cn trn.
Bng di di t nht gp hai ln thn.
Ngi treo c (Hanging men)
Hnh thnh sau mt giai on tng gi
C mt cy nn vi thn nh nm pha trn (gi m cao
hn ng), bng di di t nht gp hai ln thn
Hammer
Hanging
men
Trn Tun Vinh
371
18
BH S (33.9000, 34.7000, 33.5000, 34.7000, +1. 60000)
41.0
40.5
40.0
39.5
39.0
38.5
38.0
37.5
37.0
36.5
36.0
35.5
35.0
34.5
34.0
33.5
33.0
32.5
32.0
31.5
Hammer
31.0
30.5
25
1
February
22
1
March
15
22
29
12
19
April
Trn Tun Vinh
372

m my en bo ph (Dark Cloud
Cover)
Hnh thnh sau mt thi k gi tng
Xut hin mt cy nn vi gi m ca
cao hn gi m ca ca ngy lin trc, nhng
gi ng li thp hn khong gia ca cy nn
lin trc. V bng ca cy nn ny rt nh.
Cy nn lin trc phi l cy nn tng
Dark
Cloud
Dark Cloud Cover
Trn Tun Vinh
373

Piercing Line
Xut hin sau mt giai on gim gi
Xut hin cy nn c gi m ca thp hn
gi ng ca v gi ng ca cao hn mc gia
ca cy nn lin trc.
Cy nn lin trc phi l cy nn gim
ng ca trn
im gia
im
gia
Piercing Line
Trn Tun Vinh
Vinh (09)
374

Dng thc lp y tng (Bullish
Engulfing Patterns)
Xut hin sau mt giai on gim
Mt cy nn c gi m ca thp hn
mc cn di v gi ng ca cao hn mc
cn trn ca cy nn lin trc.
Cy nn lin trc phi l cy nn
gim.
Bng ca hai cy nn ny rt t
Bullish Engulfing Patterns

Vinh (09)
Trn Tun Vinh
375

Dng thc lp y gim (Bearish
Engulfing Patterns)
Xut hin sau mt giai on tng
Mt cy nn c gi m ca cao hn
mc cn trn v gi ng ca thp hn mc
cn di ca cy nn lin trc.
Cy nn lin trc phi l cy nn tng.
Bng ca hai cy nn ny rt t
Bearish Engulfing Patterns

Vinh(09)
Trn Tun Vinh
376

Dng thc khong trng tng (Upside
Gap)
Xut hin trong giai on tng
Dng thc ny khng nh thm xu hng
tng
Cy nn u tin l cy nn tng, to
thnh mt khong trng vi cy nn lin trc
n, cy nn th hai l cy nn gim nhng mc
cn di vn nm trn gi ng ca ca cy
nn trc cy nn th nht.
Cy nn trc cy nn th nht phi l cy
nn tng
Trn Tun Vinh
Gap
Upside Gap
Vinh(09)
377

Dng thc khong trng gim
(Downside Gap)
Xut hin trong giai on gim
Dng thc ny khng nh thm xu hng
gim
Cy nn u tin l cy nn gim, to
thnh mt khong trng vi cy nn lin trc
n, cy nn th hai l cy nn tng nhng mc
cn trn vn nm di gi ng ca ca cy
nn trc cy nn th nht.
Cy nn trc cy nn th nht phi l cy
nn gim
Trn Tun Vinh
Downside Gap
Vinh(09)
Gap
378

Phng thc ba tng (Rising Three
Methods)
Xut hin trong giai on tng
Khng nh thm xu hng tng
Bt u vi mt cy nn tng ln, sau xut
hin khong 3 hay 4 cy nn gim nh nhng
khong dao ng ca cc cy nn ny u nm
trong lng cy nn trng. Sau , xut hin mt cy
nn trng ln vi gi m ca v ng ca cao hn
cy nn trng trc.
Rising Three Methods
Trn Tun Vinh
379

Phng thc ba gim (Falling Three
Methods)
Xut hin trong giai on gim
Khng nh thm xu hng gim
Bt u vi mt cy nn gim ln, sau
xut hin khong 3 hay 4 cy nn tng nh nhng
khong dao ng ca cc cy nn ny u nm
trong lng cy nn gim. Sau , xut hin mt cy
nn gim ln vi gi m ca v ng ca thp hn
cy nn gim trc.
Falling Three Methods
Trn Tun Vinh
380
Phn 5: Cc cng c PTKT (Indicators)

1. Nhm ch bo xu hng (Trailing Indicators): MA, MACD, Bolinger Band,
Envelopes, MDS, Parabolic SAR
2. Nhm ch bo dao ng (Momentum Indicators): RSI, Stochastic, ROC,
Momentum
Trn Tun Vinh
381
Cc cng c PTKT
Ch s trung bnh ng(Moving Average): chn trung bnh ng gin n
(SMA)
L gi trung bnh ca mt chng khon ti mt thi im nht nh trong mt

khong thi gian nh ngha n.
Cch tnh: Cng tt c cc gi ng ca ca mt loi chng khon trong n

khong thi gian gn nht ri sau chia cho n.
L th c xc nh bng cch ni cc Ch s trung bnh ng tnh ton ti mi

thi im ca mt loi chng khon no theo thi gian vn hnh ca th trng.
Trn Tun Vinh
382
MA
Ch ra xu hng th
trng:
th gi nm trn ng
trung bnh di ng cho thy th
trng ang trong chiu hng
tng gi
th gi nm di ng
trung bnh di ng cho thy th
trng ang trong xu hng
gim gi.
HSG (46.7000, 47.1000, 46. 4000, 46.8000, -0.20000)
Giam manh
55
P
50
45
40
gia HSG
35
P
30
O
25
SMA(50)
Tang manh
20
P
15
10
5
2008
2009
February March
April
Trn Tun Vinh
May
June
July
August
September
Nov emberDecember 2010
February
April
383
MA
Tn hiu mua bn:
Mua khi ng gi ct
ng trung bnh t di ln
Bn khi ng gi ct
ng trung bnh t trn xung
DPM (39.5000, 41.2000, 39.3000, 40.8000, +1.50000)
45.5
45.0
44.5
44.0
43.5
43.0
42.5
42.0
41.5
41.0
40.5
40.0
39.5
39.0
38.5
38.0
37.5
37.0
36.5
36.0
35.5
35.0
34.5
34.0
33.5
33.0
32.5
32.0
31.5
31.0
30.5
30.0
29.5
29.0
28.5
28.0
27.5
27.0
26.5
26.0
25.5
25.0
24.5
24.0
23.5
23.0
22.5
22.0
21.5
21.0
20.5
sell
sell
buy
buy
2010 Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Trn Tun Vinh
Dec
2011
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2012 Feb
Mar
Apr
May
384
MA
ng vai tr khng c v
h tr:
Trong xu hng tng,

ng trung bnh ng vai tr l
mt ng h tr
Trong xu hng gim,

ng trung bnh ng vai tr l
mt ng khng c
D PM (39.5000, 41.2000, 39.3000, 40. 8000, +1.50000)
45
40
resistance
35
support
support
support
support
2010
Jul Aug Sep Oct N ov D ec 2011
Trn Tun Vinh
resistance
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct N ov D ec 2012
30
support
25
Mar Apr May
385
MA
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
K hn ca ng trung bnh
Rt ngn: 5-13 ngy
Ngn: 14-25 ngy
Trung hn yu: 26-49 Ngy
Trung hn: 50-100 ngy
Di hn: 100-200 ngy
Trn Tun Vinh
386
MA
S dng nhiu ng trung bnh
kt hp xc nh xu hng ca th
trng:
1.
Th trng tng, khi cc ng
trung bnh ngn ln lt nm ln trn
ng trung bnh di
2.
Th trng gim, khi cc ng
trung bnh ngn ln lt nm di
ng trung bnh di
565
560
555
550
545
540
535
530
525
520
515
510
505
500
495
490
485
480
475
470
465
460
455
450
445
440
435
430
425
420
415
410
405
400
395
390
385
380
375
370
365
360
355
350
345
340
335
330
325
320
315
VNINDEX (488.600, 492.440, 486.250, 488.070, +1.76001)
2010 Jun
Jul
Aug
Trn Tun Vinh
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2011
Feb Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2012 Feb
Mar
Apr
May
387
MACD
ng hi t v phn k ca trung bnh ng ( Moving Average Convergence
Divergence MACD)
+ Fast MACD : hiu s gia ng trung bnh ng m ca mt chng khon vi
thi gian 12 ngy v ng trung bnh ng m thi gian 26 ngy.
+ ng du hiu (Signal line): l trung bnh ca ng Fast MACD vi khong

thi gian quan st l 9 ngy.
Trn Tun Vinh
388
MACD
Ch ra xu hng th
trng:
+ Nu hai ng Fast
MACD v ng signal
u nm trn ng zero
(0) th cho thy th trng
ang tng gi.
+ Nu hai ng Fast
MACD v ng signal
u nm di ng zero
(0) th cho thy th trng
ang gim gi.
HSG (46.7000, 47.1000, 46. 4000, 46.8000, -0.20000)

55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
MACD (0.69863)
Xu huong tang
4
3
2
1
0
Xu huong giam
-1
-2
-3
April
May
June
July
August
Trn Tun Vinh
September
October
Nov ember
December
2010
February March
April
389
MACD
Ch ra du hiu mua/
HSG (46.7000, 47.1000, 46. 4000, 46.8000, -0.20000)
bn:
55
+ Du hiu mua: khi

ng Fast MACD ct
ng signal t di ln,
im ct cng xa ng 0
cho thy th trng s tng
gi mnh
+ Du hiu bn: khi
ng Fast MACD ct
ng signal t trn xung,
im ct cng xa ng 0
cho thy th trng s gim
gi mnh.
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
MACD (0.69863)
Bn
Q Bn
4
3
2
1
O
Mua
Q Mua
2009
February March
April
0
-1
May
June
Trn Tun Vinh
July
August
-2
Q Mua
September October
Nov ember December 2010
February
-3
April
390
Cc cng c PTKT
Ch ra s phn k tng gi v gim gi: S phn k gia ng MACD vi
th gi cho thy chiu hng tng/gim gi ang yu dn.
+ Phn k tng gi (Bullish Divergence): khi th gi ang hnh thnh
nhng y thp hn trong khi ng MACD li ang hnh thnh nhng im y
cao hn. iu ny cho thy xu hng gim gi ang yu dn.
+ Phn k gim gi(Bearish Divergence): khi th gi ang hnh thnh
nhng im nh cao hn trong khi ng MACD ang hnh thnh nhng im nh
thp hn.
Trn Tun Vinh
391
VN IN D EX (516.210, 517.260, 512. 540, 515.820, +0.48999)
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
MAC D (1.01734)
Phan ky giam
Phan ky tang
2008
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
N ov
D ec
2009
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Trn Tun Vinh
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
N ov
D ec
2010
Feb Mar
Apr
392
RSI
RSI : (RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX)
L ch s sc mnh tng quan. L ch s t l gia trung bnh s ngy tng gi so

vi mc gi trung bnh ca nhng ngy gim gi trong mt giai on nht nh.
CNG THC TNH RSI :
RSI =100- 100/(1+RS)
Average Gain = Total Gains/n
Average Loss = |Total Losses/n|
n = number of RSI periods
RS = Average Gain/Average Loss
Trn Tun Vinh
393
C phiu X
Ngy
Gi (USD)
Gain
Loss
Average Gain(3)
AverageLoss(3)
RS
RSI(3)
5.0
5.2
0.2
5.0
(0.2)
5.5
0.5
0.23
0.07
3.50
77.78
6.0
0.5
0.33
0.07
5.00
83.33
5.8
(0.2)
0.33
0.07
5.00
83.33
6.5
0.7
0.40
0.07
6.00
85.71
7.0
0.5
0.40
0.07
6.00
85.71
6.8
(0.2)
0.40
0.07
6.00
85.71
10
7.0
0.2
0.23
0.07
3.50
77.78
11
7.5
0.5
0.23
0.07
3.50
77.78
12
7.7
0.2
0.30
#DIV/0!
1.00
13
7.2
(0.5)
0.23
0.17
1.40
58.33
14
7.0
(0.2)
0.07
0.23
0.29
22.22
15
6.5
(0.5)
0.40
16
7.0
0.5
0.17
0.23
0.71
41.67
Trn Tun Vinh
394
RSI
Cc ng Dng RSI :
1/ Ch ra tnh trng overbought/oversold:
Nu ng RSI trn 70 th cho thy th trng ang tnh trng overbought
(mua qu mc), ngc li, nu RSI di 30 cho thy th trng tnh trng oversold
(bn qu mc).
2/ Ch ra du hiu mua/bn:
Du hiu bn: Khi ng RSI t trn nh ct xung di 70 ch ra du hiu bn.
Du hiu mua: Khi ng RSI t di y ct ln trn 30 ch ra du hiu mua
Trn Tun Vinh
395
VN IN D EX (516.210, 517.260, 512. 540, 515.820, +0.48999)

650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
R elat iv e Strength Index (55.3182)
Ban
90
Overbought
80
70
60
50
Mua
40
30
20
Oversold
10
0
2008
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
N ov
D ec
2009
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Trn Tun Vinh
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
N ov
D ec
2010
Feb Mar
Apr
396
RSI
3/ Ch ra s phn k tng/gim gi:
Phn k gim gi (Bearish Divergence): khi th gi hnh thnh nhng im cao
hn trong khi RSI li hnh thnh nhng im cao thp hn
Phn k tng gi (Bullish Divergence): khi th gi hnh thnh nhng y thp hn
trong khi RSI li hnh thnh nhng im y cao hn
Trn Tun Vinh
397
VN M (88.0000, 88.0000, 86. 0000, 86.5000, -0.50000)

100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
Phan ky tang
2008
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
N ov
D ec
2009
Feb
Trn Tun Vinh
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
398
650
VN IN D EX (516.210, 517.260, 512. 540, 515.820, +0.48999)
640
630
620
610
600
590
580
570
560
550
540
530
520
510
500
490
480
470
460
450
440
430
420
410
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
Phan ky giam
22
29
6
July
13
20
27
3
10
August
17
24
31 7
14
September
21
28
5
12
October
19
26
Trn Tun Vinh
2
9
16
N ov ember
23
30 7
14
D ecember
21
28 4
11
2010
18
25
1
February
399
Ch s dng tin (Money Flow Index MFI)

TNG QUAN:
L mt cng c so snh gia dng tin dng v dng tin m to ra mt du hiu
ch bo c th so snh vi gi chng khon nhm xc nhn xu hng tng, gim gimt loi
CK c th
SO SNH MFI VI RSI:
MFI c hiu v tnh ton tng t RSI. Tuy nhin, nu nh RSI ch ch trng vo
yu t gi CK th MFI c tnh n c yu t khi lng giao dch nn n l mt cng c tt
trong vic xem xt sc mnh ca dng tin ra vo mt chng khon.
Tng t RSI, MFI c o lng trong khong t 0 ti 100 v thng c tnh
trong khong k hn 14 ngy.
Trn Tun Vinh
400
CNG THC
Trc tin, chng ta cn tnh dng tin ca mi CK (money flow)
Money Flow = (Typical Price) x (Volume)
MFI so snh t s ca lung tin dng v m. Nu gi ngy hm nay cao hn hm

qua, n c cho l tin dng ( positive money), cn ngc li l tin m (negative
money). Trong 14 ngy, tng tt c cc tin dng c gi l lung tin dng( positive
money flow). MFI c tnh da trn t s tin:
Trn Tun Vinh
401

Cui cng, MFI c tnh da trn t s:
Ch : cng t ngy c s dng tnh MFI th tnh linh ng cng cao.
Trn Tun Vinh
402
ng dng
MFI c 2 ng dng c bn:
S phn k ( o chiu xu th):

Nu ng MFI khng cng chiu ng gi m ngc chiu, xu hng
hin ti ca gi c th b o ngc.
Vng mua qu nhiu vng bn qu nhiu (overbought/oversold):
- Nu ng MFI trn mc 80 ngha l th trng ang trong tnh trng
mua qu nhiu v gi tng cao. Gi s iu chnh tr li khi MFI i xung thp hn 80
cho ta tn hiu SELL.
- Nu ng MFI di mc 20 ngha l th trng ang trong tnh trng bn
qu nhiu v gi gim qu thp. Gi s iu chnh tr li khi MFI i vt ln mc 20
cho ta tn hiu BUY.
Trn Tun Vinh
403
Di Bolliger
Do lch chun l thc o bin ng, do gii Bolliger s t iu chnh, m rng
khi th trng bin ng v thu hp khi th trng bnh n.
Gii Bolliger gm 3 ng : ng gia (Middle Band): chnh l ng trung bnh
trt gin n (SMA), ng di ( Lower Band ), ng trn (Upper Band)
Cng thc ng trn v ng di c xc nh nh sau.
ng di tng t nh
vy, thay vo l php tr, vi D l s lch chun ( 1,2,3.. )
Trn Tun Vinh
404
404
Di bolliger band
VN IN D EX (408.180, 410.480, 405. 720, 408.440, +0.64999)
555
550
545
540
535
530
525
520
515
510
505
500
495
490
485
480
475
470
465
460
455
450
445
440
435
430
425
420
415
410
405
400
395
390
385
380
375
370
365
360
355
1
8
15
N ov ember
22
29 6
13 20
D ecember
27
4 10
2011
17
24
8 14 21
February
28 7
March
14
21
28
4
13
April
25
4
May
16
23
30 6
June
Trn Tun Vinh
13
20
27
4
11
July
18
25
1
8
August
15
22
29 5
12 19
September
26
3
10 17
October
405
24
1 7
14
N ov ember
405
Di BOLLIGER
Gi ca c phiu c khuynh hng bin ng trong phm vi di bolliger.

S thay i ln v gi thng xut hin khi di Bolliger hp li.
Trn Tun Vinh
406
406
3. Stochastic Oscillators
Trn Tun Vinh
407
Trn Tun Vinh
408
Phn 6: Cc phn mm PTKT

1.
2.
Metastock
Netdania.com
Trn Tun Vinh
409
Ci t Metastock
S dng CD chng trnh MetaStock 8.0 hoc cao hn

a a vo my tnh.
Trn Tun Vinh
410
Chn: Next
Trn Tun Vinh
411
Trn Tun Vinh
Chn: I accept this agreement
412
Nhp: Tn bn v cng ty bn ang lm vic

NHP SETUP_KEY:
Trn Tun Vinh
YPHQ-3ED6-ZJW71
413
Chn: Next
Trn Tun Vinh
414
Chn: Yes
Trn Tun Vinh
415
Chn: Next
Trn Tun Vinh
416
Chn: Next
Trn Tun Vinh
417
Trn Tun Vinh
Chn: No Real-time Vendor
418
Chn: Next
Trn Tun Vinh
419
Chn: Next
Trn Tun Vinh
420
Chn: Next
Trn Tun Vinh
421
Trn Tun Vinh
422
Chn: next
Trn Tun Vinh
423
Chn: Overwrite
Trn Tun Vinh
424
Chn: Next
Trn Tun Vinh
425
Chn: No, I will restart my computer later

Trn Tun Vinh
426
Chn: Finish
Trn Tun Vinh
427
Khi ng phn mm
Ra mn hnh Destop, double-click vo biu tng MetaStock
Trn Tun Vinh
428
Tm d liu
Vo website http://www.phutoan.com.vn
ng k thnh vin
ng nhp
Vo Din n chn mc Data MetaStock
To mt folder tn Data MetaStock trong D hoc bt k a no.
Tm v ti gi d liu ton b n ngy .gn nht vi hin ti trn destop hoc
bt k folder no d nh, tin hnh gii nn.
Tm v ti gi d liu tng ngy cn thiu cho n hin ti trn destop hoc bt k
folder no d nh, tin hnh gii nn.
Trn Tun Vinh
429
Np d liu
Click chut vo biu tng The Downloader trn mn hnh desktop

Mn hnh hin ra nh sau:
Trn Tun Vinh
430
Chn: Tools
Trn Tun Vinh
431
Chn: Convert
Trn Tun Vinh
432
Ti phn Source, mc Files Type chn: Execel (i vi d liu ngy)

hoc ASCII text (i vi d liu ton b)
Sau , Click vo Browse
Trn Tun Vinh
433
Chn Desktop, sau chn ht 4 files (Fund, HaSTC, HOSE, index), tip
n bm Open
Trn Tun Vinh
434
Ti phn Destination, mc Files Type chn: MetaStock

Sau , Click vo Browse
Trn Tun Vinh
435
Tm n v chn folder Data MetaStock, sau bm

Save
Trn Tun Vinh
436
Chn: Ok, sau i phn mm gii m

Trn Tun Vinh
437
Chn: Close, hon thnh xong phn gii m d liu

Trn Tun Vinh
438
Phn mm PTKT ngoi hi v oil
S dng chng trnh netdania.com
Trn Tun Vinh
439
www.netdania.com
1.
2.
3.
4.
S dng phn tch k thut cc loi hng ha:

Cc cp ngoi t: EURO, GBP, JPY, CAD, AUD
Du
Vng, bc v cc kim loi qu khc
Ch s chng khon ca cc th trng ln nh: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, S&P 500
Trn Tun Vinh
440
Khi ng
Vo www.netdania.com
Chn Product, sau chn Finance Chart
Trn Tun Vinh
441
M ln th: Click vo
Trn Tun Vinh
442
Mt s hng dn s dng
Chn hng ha phn tch: vo Instruments , sau la chn hng ha cn, nu mun
la chn phn tch cc ch s chng khon ca cc th trng ln chn more
instruments.
Chn la loi th (dng line, candlestick, bar ): vo Chart Type.
Chn la pha thi gian phn tch (5 pht, 1h, 1 ngy ): vo Time Scale.
Xem d liu trong mt khong thi gian di: vo View, chn Periods.
Phn tch Fibonancci: vo Line.
Phn tch cc ch bo (Indicators): vo Studies.
Trn Tun Vinh
443
7. Nhng vn cn bit khi ng dng PTKT vo u

t
Nh phn tch k thut gii khng c ngha l ngi u t gii
S ch quan lun tn ti trong PTKT
S chi phi bi phn tch c bn
Vn v pha thi gian
Sau cng l vn tm l
Trn Tun Vinh
444
Nh phn tch k thut gii khng c ngha l ngi u

t gii
Thc t thy rng: mt s nh u t c trang b kin thc v k nng PTKT nh
nhau, nhng khi cho h u t thc t th ch mt s t trong h l thnh cng, hu ht l tht
bi (theo thng k con s ny l 90%/10%).
iu ny c ngha l cng mt cn cu tt, khng phi ai cng cu c c. Vn

y l g? Chnh l bn thn ca bn! L tm l ca bn! chnh l cch ng dng PTKT
ca mi ngi.
Nh phn tch k thut gii l ngi am hiu chi tit th trng v a ra nhiu bng
chng thuyt phc cho nhn nh ca mnh.
Trong khi , ngi u t gii ch s mt s cng c n gin ph hp vi mnh (s

trng) theo kp din bin th trng nhm giao dch thu li.
Trn Tun Vinh
445
S ch quan lun tn ti trong PTKT

PTKT l mt ngh thut. Ngh thut bao gi cng c du n ca c nhn.
S ch quan th hin ch cch nhn nhn cc m hnh khc nhau, cc bc sng

khc nhau, cc xu hng khc nhau trn cng mt th ca cc nh u t. Thm ch,
ngay c i vi cng c ch bo (Indicators) l cng c c to ra bng thut ton th vic
s dng cng cha ng s ch quan, th hin trong cch chn tham s, khong thi gian
ca mi nh u t.
S nguy him ca tnh ch quan, l nh u t lun nhn nhn th theo cch h

mong mun, h c gng tm kim nhng du hiu ng h cho suy ngh ca h, hn l xem
xt mt cch khch quan.
Ngi u t gii l ngi lun bit kim ch s ch quan ny, bng cch lun t duy
hai mt. in hnh l G.Soros, vi li t duy Ti c th sai lm ni ting.
Trn Tun Vinh
446
S chi phi bi phn tch c bn

Trong qu trnh ng dng PTKT u t, nh u t hay c thi quen s dng phn
tch c bn ng h cho quyt nh ca mnh
Vn xy ra khi, kt qu ca PTKT khng c ng h hoc mu thun vi yu t
c bn; lc ny nh u t s rt kh quyt nh hoc quyt nh sai.
Cch tt nht gii quyt vn ny l bit t trng tm vo loi phn tch no
hoc nu mun kt hp c hai th phi gi nguyn tc: ch u t khi hai yu t trn ng
nht.
Trn Tun Vinh
447
Vn v pha thi gian

Ti cng thi im, nu chn pha thi gian khc nhau, s c th cho ra kt qu khc
nhau v xu hng th trng. iu ny to ra thch ln nht cho cc nh u t khi ra quyt
nh.
Trn Tun Vinh
448
Trn Tun Vinh
449
Trn Tun Vinh
450
Trn Tun Vinh
451
Vn v pha thi gian

Xu hng di hn s tc ng ln xu hng ngn hn. Xu hng ngn hn cng chiu
vi xu hng di hn th th trng s c thm ng lc v khong giao ng gi s ko di
hn so vi trng hp xu hng ngn hn ngc chiu vi xu hng di hn.
Nu u t theo pha thi gian ngn 5M th phi bt u phn tch vi th ngy, gi
v kt thc th 5M ra quyt nh. Nu u t theo pha thi gian daily th phi bt u
vi th thng, tun, sau kt thc bng th ngy.
Trn Tun Vinh
452
Trn Tun Vinh
453
Trn Tun Vinh
454
Trn Tun Vinh
455
Sau cng l vn tm l
Ti sao c nhng nh u t li khng t mnh quyt nh mua bn m lun lm theo
tin n mc d anh ta am hiu v ti chnh?
Ti sao mt nh u t li l 10%, 30%, 50% ri buc phi ct l mc 70%?
Ti sao mt nh u t phn tch th trng s xung, nhng 30p u phin anh ta li
quyt nh mua khi thy th trng tng, ri cui phin anh ta li hi tic khi thy th
trng gim mnh?
Cu tr li chung l: anh ta cha c quy tc giao dch hoc c nhng khng tun th
quy tc giao dch.
Trn Tun Vinh
456
Sau cng l vn tm l
Ti sao hu ht cc nh u t li mun bn thay v mua vo khi gi bt ph qua
ngng gi cao nht trc (Resistance). Trong khi , ai cng bit khi gi bt ph qua
ngng cao trc , n s tip tc t c ngng cao mi (new highs).
Cu tr li chung cho hai vn ny l s t tin. Chng ta thng hay nh mt s t
tin vo giy pht quyt nh u t
Trn Tun Vinh
457
Sau cng l vn tm l
Ti sao hu ht nhng
ngi giao dch theo Patterns
li hay c khuynh hng giao
dch sm trc khi cc
Patterns hon chnh. Bi v, h
lun b thi thc bi tm l
chc chn m hnh s xy ra,
ch i s gim li nhun.
nh 1
nh 2
Vng bn ri ro
cao, nhng li c
nhiu ngi bn
Vng bn ri ro
thp, nhng li c
t ngi bn
Hon tt m hnh
Trn Tun Vinh
458
Sau cng l vn tm l
Ti sao hu ht
nhng ngi giao dch
theo MA li hay c
khuynh hng giao dch
ti mc gi tip xc vi
ng MA. Bi v, h
lun b thi thc bi tm
l chc chn gi s ct
xuyn qua MA, ch i s
gim li nhun.
Trn Tun Vinh
459
Sau cng l vn tm l
Cu tr li chung cho hai vn trn l s kin nhn,
mt li khuyn ca cc nh u t bc thy l khng c c
hi, khng giao dch
Trn Tun Vinh
460
Sau cng l vn tm l
Vy gii quyt 3 vn tm l: quy tc, s t tin, v s kin
nhn, NT cn lm g? Tp luyn!
Hy bt u bng vic nghin cu v to ra mt m hnh giao
dch; sau , kim nh li hiu qu ca m hnh bng d liu qu kh
hoc giao dch Demo.
Khi c mt m hnh giao dch ng tin cy, hy lun lun kin

nhn giao dch theo nhng quy tc m m hnh t ra.
Trn Tun Vinh
461
Gi quy trnh vit bo co PTKT

Hy bt u phn tch vi pha thi gian di, sau phn tch k vi pha thi gian
giao dch.
Xc nh v v ng xu hng chnh ca th trng. Ch s tng tc gia ng
xu hng v ng gi.
Tm kim cc Patterns phn tch du hiu o chiu hay tip din ca xu hng.
S dng nhm ng trung bnh MA khng nh thm nhn nh v xu hng
chnh.
Trn Tun Vinh
462
Gi quy trnh vit bo co PTKT

Phn tch volume v dng tin (Money Flow Index) khng nh sc mnh ca xu
hng.
Phn tch MACD, RSI, Stochastic cnh bo sm s i chiu xu hng. Ch
s phn k ca nhm ch s ny.
a ra li nhn nh cui cng v xu hng gi trong tng lai.
V sau cng l d on cc mc m gi c th hng ti trong tng li bng cng c
Resistance & Support, Fibonacci, Elliot Wave hoc Patterns.
Trn Tun Vinh
463

BAI GIANG - Financial Invesment

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u t ti chnh

Trn Tun Vinh

Ti liu tham kho

Fundementals of investments: valuation and management, second edition, Charles J.Corrado

Trn Tun Vinh

Chng 1: tng quan v u t ti chnh

Khi nim u t ti chnh

Trn Tun Vinh

Theo quan im ca ngui vit: u t ti chnh l mt k hoch, theo nh u

Trn Tun Vinh

Cc loi hnh u t ti chnh

u t c phiu (Equities): c phiu ph thng (common stock) v c phiu

u t cc cng c tr li (interest_bearing): cc cng c trn tr trng

Chng khon phi sinh v cc loi hnh u t khc

Trn Tun Vinh

Cc phng php phn tch u t

Phn tch nh lng: s dng cc m hnh ton hc d on cc yu t v

Trn Tun Vinh

Phn tch nn kinh t

Phn tch ngnh

Phn tch cng ty

Trn Tun Vinh

Bi ging ch tp trung vo phn tch c phiu ph thng (common stock).

Hc vin nn nghin cu m rng nhng ni dung v phn tch c phiu

Trn Tun Vinh

Mua cng ty tt/tuyt vi

Nm gi trong mt khong thi gian hp l

Trn Tun Vinh

Cc m hnh phn tch c bn

Trn Tun Vinh

Trn Tun Vinh

Hng phn tch

Trn Tun Vinh

Phn tch nn kinh t

Mc tiu ca phn tch nn kinh t

Phn tch cc yu t kinh t v m quan trng

Cc c s phn tch v d bo th trng

Trn Tun Vinh

Mc tiu ca phn tch nn kinh t

Gip cc nh u t ra quyt nh trong vic phn b vn gia cc quc

Phn b t trng cc cng c u t trong t quc gi

Thy c nhng thun li v kh khn ca mi trng u t ti mi

Tm thy c nhng ngnh hng li nhiu nht trong bi cnh v m

Thy c s nh hng ca yu t v m n TTCK

Mi trng u t l tng th cc yu t kinh t, x hi, vn

Trn Tun Vinh

Phn tch cc yu t kinh t v m quan trng

Li sng x hi (Lifestyles): cch sng, cch lm vic, tiu dng, gio

Xu hng v cng ngh

Phn tch ngnh

Trn Tun Vinh

Mc tiu phn tch ngnh

Mc tiu phn tch ngnh (tt)

Cc tiu ch phn ngnh

Da vo cc h thng phn ngnh ln gm: ISIC (LHQ), NAICS (M),

Da vo hot ng kinh doanh chnh ca cng ty. Hot ng kinh doanh

Trn Tun Vinh

ISIC: International Standard Industrial Classification

Trn Tun Vinh

NNG NGHIP, LM NGHIP V THU SN

SN XUT V PHN PHI IN, KH T, NC NNG, HI NC V IU HO KHNG KH

CUNG CP NC; HOT NG QUN L V X L RC THI, NC THI

BN BUN V BN L; SA CHA T, M T, XE MY V XE C NG C KHC

THNG TIN V TRUYN THNG