Nhập môn xử lý số liệu và kế hoạch hóa thực nghiệm

Lé Dire Ngoc NHAP MON xU LY sO LIEU VA KE HOACH HOA THUC NGHIEM Ha n@i- 12/2011 112 Dit Ngoc: Nhdp min x36 liga vi Ad hogch bathe mii 12/2011 MYC LUC Lai noi dau Mye lye PHAN I: THONG KE VA PHAN TICH THONG KE SO DO Chwong 1: Céc dic trung thong ké cia m6t tap sé ligu két qua do 1. Céc tham s6 dic tring vé sw tdp trung ciia tap sé liéu 1.1, Tin xudt (pi) 1.2. $6 tr6i (Mo) 1.3. Khoang cila tap sé (R) 1.4, S6 trung vi (Med) va sé tir phan vi (Q) 1.5. Trung binh cong (X) 2. Cie tham sé déic trumg vé sue phan tén cia tép sé liu 2.1. Phuong sai (o” hoae S*) 2.2. DO Iéch chudn (c rhode S;) 2.3. BO sai chun (o, hod S,) 2.4. Hé s6 bién thién (C,) 4 3. Cae lie trug phn phdt thing ke cata rdp sé lid 3.1. Phan phdi Chuan (phan phdi Gauss) (u) 3.2. Phan phéi Student (phan phi t) 3.3. Phan ph6i Fis 3.4, Phan phéi Khi binh phuong 3.5. Phan phéi Poisson 3.6. Phan phéi Nhj thre: 3.7. Méi quan hé gitta cdc ham phan phéi va cde chudn phan phéi ‘Chwong 2: Phan tich danh gia tap sé ligu két qua do 4.1. Sai s6 do 4.2. D6 chinh xéc cita tip. sb. ligu két qua thye nghiém 4.3. BO sai biét cia tap 4.4, Sai sé t6i da cho phép AP(X) 4.5. Khodng chinh xée tin 5.1. Gia thiét théng ké va két ludn théng ké 5.2. Quan hé gira chuan phan phdi va ket luan thong ké 5.3. Phan tich so sinh 5.3.1. So sanh d9 chinh xée 5.3.2. So sinh sai bigt PHAN Il: PHAN TICH NHAN TO ANH HUONG LEN SO DO Chwong 4 : Phan tich Hdi qui va Tong quan eta ede nan t5 6.1. Héi qui va Twong quan hai nhan t6 6.1.1. Hi qui tuyén tinh, 6.1.2. Hdi qui phi tuyén tinh 6.1.3. Hé s6 tuong quan (r) Spearman, 6.1.4. Hé s6 tuong quan thir béc Spearman rho 6.2. Héi qui va tong quan da nhan t6Lé Die Ngoe- Nhp men x 4 lu vi ké hoach hoa hae nghiéme12/2011 ‘Chuong 5: Phan tich tae dng cia cae nhan t6 qua tham sé (phan tich bing phuong sai ) 7.1, Bai toan 1 nhan t6, k mite do,méi mite do lap Iain lan 7.2. Bai toan 2 nhan t6 A va B; nhan t6 A, k mite do; nhdn t6 B, m mite do; véi mdi mite ci 2nhén t6 A va B déu tién hanh do lap Iain Lin 7.3. Bai ton 3 nhan té tré lén ( Phuong phap O vudng Latin) Chuwong 6: Phan tich tac dgng cia ce nhén té khong qua tham sé 8.1, Bai todn ty 1é gitta 2 dai lugng, mdi dai lugng 2 mirc 8.1.1. Ding chuan Khi binh phuong (”) dé danh gid 8.1.2. Ding Hé s6 tuong quan dé danh gid 8.2. Bai todn ty 1é gitta 2 dai Iuong X (c6 s mic) va Y (c6 r mic) 8.3. Bai todn so sinh 2 ty Ie PHAN III: KE HOACH HOA THYC NGHIEM ‘Chuong 7: Mé hinh hoa thyc nghigm da nhén t6 bgc mgt diy dit va rt gon 9.1. Dai wong vé m6 hinh hod thye nghiém da nhan t6 9.2. M6 hinh hod thye nghiém bac 1 day di 9.3. M6 hinh hod thye nghigm bac 1 nit gon ‘Chwong 8: Mé hinh hod thyc nghiém da nhin t6 bac hai day da hay rat gon 10.1. Mé hinh hod thye nghiém bge 2 tam tryc giao 10.2. Mé inh hod thyc nghigm bac 2 tém xoay ch wong 9: Phuong php mang don hinh PHAN IV: TOI UU HOA THU'C NGHIEM ‘Chwong 10. Toi wu héa thye nghigm 10.1, Khai niém va phan logi céc phuong phap t6i wu hod 10.2. Phuong phap the nghiém theo duémg déc nhét 10.3. Phuong phdp khao sét mat muc tiéu 10.4. Phuong phap thre nghiém theo don hinh Phu lye: Cae bang sé théng ké 1. Bang chuan w 2. Bang chudnt 3. Bang chuan F 4, Bang chun 72Le Dite Ngoc: Nip mén si 96 itu vi KE hooch hd thee nghigme122011 PHANI XU’ LY SO LIEU KET QUA BO CHUONG | CAC DAC TRUNG THONG KE CUA MOT TAP SO LIEU KET QUA DO. Nhiing dai long dic trung chinh cho mt tip sé ligu két qua do, duge phan lam 3 loai chinh: 1/ Céc tham sé dc trung vé su tép trung ciia tap s6 ligu, 2/ Cac tham sé dc trung ve sy phan tan cia tap s6 ligu, 3/ Dc trung phan ph6i thong ké cila tap sé 1. Cac tham s6 dic trung vé sy tap trung ciia tap s6 ligu 1.1. Tan sudt (p) Gia thiét c6 mét tap sé ligu két qua do gdm c6 N sé ligu, trong dé c6 nj gid tr] Xi (Xi xudt hign n; lan) n; goi la dn sd cha ia tri X;, khi 43, tan sudt cia gia tri X; drge tinh nu sau: n pees A Ui cal Ml Pi N Pi pila tin sudt xudt hign gid tri Xi, khi N > oo thi p;— P; (P; li xae sudt, xudt hién gid tri X\). Vi dy 1: Khi khao sat 100 di tugng do X, thu duge 100 sé ligu do cho & bang sau: Ses 2 3 4 3 é v1 8 9 10 Ta? | a | 44s | aa [as [420 | aoa | 41S | 396 | 3.65 2 [3m | 40s [370 | aan | 43s | 389 | 367 | 480 | 416 | 407 3_ | 431 | 408 | 365 | 423 | 400 | 458 | 430 | 442 | 390 | 436 4 | 39 [44 | 367 [| 3a2 [aie [ary | 430 | 418 | 456 | 393 3 | 400 | 308 | 432 | 455 [| 440 [455 | 492 | ase [419 | as2 6 | 438 | 436 | 369 | 404 | 440 | 398 | 438 | 400 | 408 | 416 7 [| aio [sea [403 | 458 | 420 | 437 | 458 | 404 | 488 | 421 | 4 | 4a | 427 | as1 | 402 | 380 | 408 | 405 [| 3a5 | 421 9 [387 | 40s_[ 394 [423 [395 [432 [ 403 | aor | aie | 4m 10 [384 | 403 [356 | 381 | 393 | 428 | 403 | 374 | 427 | a7 Khi sip xép lai theo thir ty ting din, 100 sO ligu két qua do trén, ta eo: 13.56 21393 41 4.08 61 4.23 81 4.40 2.364 22 393 42 4.08 62 4.23 82 4.40 3 365 23 3.93 43 410 63 423 83 4.42 4365 24 394 44 4.11 64 4.27 84 4.45 5 367 25 3.94 45 4.13 65 427 85 4.46 6 367 26 395 46 4.14 66 4.28 86 4.52 73.69 27 396. 47 4.14 67 430 87 4.55 83.70 28 398 48 4.15 68 4.30 88 4.55 9371 29 400 49 4.16 69 431 89 4.56 10 3.74 30 400 $0 4.16 70 431 90 4.58 11 380 31 403 51 4.16 71 431 91 4.58 12 3.81 32 403 52 4.17 72 432 92 4.58 13 3.82 33 403 53 4.18 73 432 93 4.58 14 384 34 403 54 4.18 74 435 94 4.60 15 3.84 35 4.04 55 4.19 75 436 95 4.62 16 385 36 405 56 4.20 76 4.36 96 4.72 17 387 37 405 °57 4.20 77 43797 4.73, 18 3.89 38 405 58 4.21 78 437 98 4.80 19 3.90 39 407 59 4.21 79 438 99 4.82 20 3.91 40 4.08 60 4.21 80 4.38 100 4.88 -4-Le Dit Ngoe- Nip mén si 6 liu vr ké hogch hoa thie nghitm122011 Bang biéu dién sé ligu thing ké 100 két qua do tir 100 déi tugng da cho trén day theo phan nhém céch nhau khoang 17 don vi mot, durge trinh bay nhur sau: Nhom | Tans6 | Gid tt TB | Tan suat | Tan sudt dn ny p=nN| Spi 350-3.67| 4 359 | 0.04 ‘0.04 9 76 13 16 | 3.94 | 0.16 0.29 4o1-418{ 22 [ 4.10 | 0.22 051 4.18-435[ 24 | 427 | 024 0.75 435-452| 11 | 444 | 0.1 0.86 452-469| 10 | 461 0.10 0.96 4.69-4.86| 3 4.78 | 0.03 0.99 4.86-5.03| 1 495 | 0.01 1.00 Lop tri ti 4.18 dn 4.35 [8 Top 66 tn sudt 1Gn nhit (0.24). Bang sé ligu trén c6 thé durge biéu dign trén 2 logi dé thi sau: sudt lop, Vigc phan nhém mét tap sé ligu duge tién hanh qua mét sé bude, théng thudng, chia am 10 nhom. : 48 35°36 4042 3230 «46 4340 35 «1S 44 4B 5 bie 4G el C9 ae GUeato) 3g a7 oll 25° 18 39 43 28 Zee 33210) 2039) 9) Ge es 79: dl ee ie A ls 41 15 44-2812 Giai: Buse 1: Tinh khoang cia tap sé ligu: Rmax ~Rmin = 48 ~ 12 = 36 Buse 2: Tinh khoang ciia nhom: 36:10 = 3.6, chin hod la 4. Butée 3: Tinh khong cla nhém c6 gid tri nhé nit: 12 + 3 = 15, ta ¢6 nhém c6 gid tri ho nhdt la 12-15, tir dé xdy dung nén céc nhém c6 gid trj cao hon, dém céc gid tri nim trong tp 6 ligu dé tim tan s6 cia nhOm, két qua ta cé tp sé ligu trén durge phan nhém nh sau:Le Bite Ngpe- Nhip mén x sb liu vi ké hogeh hb tue nghiem- 12/2011 Khoang diém Tan sé 48-51 44-47 40-43 36-39 32-35 28-31 24-27 20-23 16-19 12-15 Sussan . i (Mo) 1a sé c6 tn suat Lon nhat (chinh la sé c6 tan sé xudt hign én nhét) trong tap s6 ligu két qua do, 1.3. Khoang ciia tap sé (R) ___ Khodng ciia tép sé, R, la khoang cach gitta gid tri lon nhdt va gid tri nho nhat cua tap sé ligu két qua do, Nhu vay, khoang cila tp sé durgc tinh theo céng thie sau: R= Xin = Xin 12 1.4. Sé trung vj (Med) va sé tir phn vi (Q) Sé trung vj (Med) la sé dimg gita tap s6 ligu da duge sip xép theo thir ty tir bé dén lin, chia day s6 dé lam 2 phan bing nhau vé sé sé lieu. a/ Déi vii cdc sé ligu khong nhém lai: Gia sit X1, Xo, Xs, ..., Xn la day cde gid tri clia t€p sO ligu két qua do, duge sip xép theo thirty tang dan, thi: + $6 trung vj cia tip N sé 18 duge tinh theo céng thite sau: Med=X not 13 4 Vidu 3 : Tim trung vj cia tap sé: 5, 7,9, 13,15, 16,19 Giai: Med = Xr1y0 = X4, 6 thir 4 la s6 13 vay Med = 13 - Sé trung vj ciia tap N sé chin durgc tinh theo céng thie sau: Med=31Xy +Xy.] 14 Vidy 4: Tim trung vj ciia tap sd: 3, 5, 7, 9, 13, 15, 16, 19. : Med="|x,4+x, [= Pt 211 ape taf 2 b/ Déi véi sé liéu gép thank nhém. - Tim trung vi tap s6 ligu 6 phan nhém theo c6ng thie sau: Ni-o fin = Tan sé mg voi khoang diém ké tiép vai khoang diém cé tan sé din duge chon id tri khoang diém (interval)Vi dy 5: Tinh gi tri trung vi cho tap sé ligu sau: x f cf Me A-33 3 50 48-50 4 47 4-47 [2 [43 42-44 8 Al 39-41 [1 (33. 36-38 [3 [32 33-35 [9 [29 |Me 30-32 [2 [20 27-29 3 18 24-26 a 1s. 21-23 6 10 18-20 0 4 15-17 4 4 50, -20 Maston =325+| —?— [x3 232.5 +13 =338 thanh 4 phan tu. C6 3 sé tt phiin vj fi Qi= Xus, ‘a4 tring voi so trung vi Med. S6 ttt phéin vi la Qe Xu va O= Xvu. $6 0: a/ Déi vei ede 86 ligu khong nhém lai - $6 tir phan vj cua tp N gia tri chia hét cho 4, thi tinh theo céng thite: [Xn +Xe,] 16 1 3 =5 Pan +Xay 1 uw desi - $6 tir phan vj cia tp N khOng chia hét cho 4, thi tinh theo cng thite : Q=Xw ve W=Xsy,, 18 at 4 b/ Déi véi sé ligu gép thanh nhém Gia sir nhom thir i (Xi, Xi +1) €6 n; gid tri nm trong nhom dé va ta 6: 19 nk Tuong ty, céc tir phan vi duge xéc dinh theo c6ng thite chung sau day: (Xa XX 1.10 7Le De Ngpe- Nhdp man xt sd ligu wi k8 hogch héa thee nghigm- 12/2011 wu . 0, = FF Ohys Xi) + Hs 5 VO Trong thyc té, ngudi ta tinh tir phan vj Qi va Qs cho mét tap sé ligu c6 phn nhom theo cOng thitc giéng nhu céng thitc tinh trung vi, tuy nhién cé sy khéc nhau vé vj tri nén céng thite c6 khéc nhau chit it: 1,2,3. 1 40% en Hp Ani. Liz Vi dy 6: Tinh Q) va Qs cho tap s6 ligu phan nhém sau day: x F_ [ef O13 90-94 [2 45 35-39 [6 4B 80-84 [3 37 75-79 [0 34 70-74 (5 34 @ 5-69 [3 29 60-64 [2 26 35-59 [6 24 50-s4__[4 18 45-49 [5 14 Qi 40-44 (3 ° 35-39 [2 G 30-34 [1 4 25-29 [0 3 20-24 [3 3 45 wse[ Jescaseaasesens 0, = 695+ BIB), 56954495 -7425 1.5. Trung binh cong Goi X la gid tri wrung binh céng cia mot tap sé ligu khong phan nhém thi X duge tinh theo céng thire sau: 113 khi X; xudt hign nj lin thi tinh theo : vi N=Dn, 14 Vidy 7: Diém thi mén todn cia 10 hge vien thuge nhom kh l&: 78, 79, 62, 84, 90, 71, 76, 83, 98, 77. Diém trung binh ciia 10 hoe vien la: 78+79+62+84+90+ 71+ 76+83+98+77 10 79 diém ahLe Bite Ngoc- Nhdp mon sat Ij sé ligu vie ké hoch fda thyee nghigm- 12/2011 Trong truémg hgp tap sé ligu duge phan nhém, gid tri trung binh cng duge tinh theo. céng thite ting quét sau: Sut fa tnt em i LAPD ATL yf, Las Sithtoth wot Trong d6: x; la gid tri trung binh cita nhém, f, tin s6 cla nhém. Vi du 8: Diém thi triic nghiém ciia 100 hoe vién cho & bang sau: id 4 | Gidtri trun Tan 86 x gid tri Diénsé | Tinsd | Siknhém: | _teung bink nhém 90 ~100 8 95. 760 80-89 10 35 850 70~79 10 75 750. 60-69 | 30 65 1950 50~59 20 55 1100 40~49 12 45 540 30 ~39 5 35 175 20~29 2 25 50 10-19 2 15 30 0=9 1 5 5 Tong 100 e210 . zy! 6210 Khi 46, ¥ yess 700 7 O21 ‘Céng thie tinh gid tr trung binh cho tép s6 liéu phan nhém cing diing cho tng hop Linh gid tri trung binh gia quyén (C6 trong 86), khi d6 f, trong 6 cba gid tri x: Trong thwe té, ngudi ta tinh gid tri trung binh cia mét tdp sé ligu phan nhém theo cong thite sau. x Lf), 1.16 ‘Mean = Am+( N ‘Trong dé: Am = Sé trung binh cOng gia thiét (Assumed mean) f (Frequency), d = Dé Iéch (deviation) i= Khodng diém (interval), N= Sé lugng cdc truéng hop (Numbers). Vi du 9: Tinh sé trung binh cng cia cde diém sé durge nhom thank cdc khoang diém cia tap 6 ligu sau, x F d fa 90 - 94 2 5 10 85-89 2 4 8 80-84 5 3 15 75=79 7 2 14 70-74 10 1 10 5-69 u 0 0 60-64 8 = a 55-59 3 2 6 30-54 0 3 0 45-49 2 4 8 N=50 Giai:{Le Bite Ngoc: Nip mins a8 liu vr ké hooch hb thc nghiém-12/201 1 X = Mean = 67 +(Sps = 70.5 50, 1.6. Trung binh nhéin GM = fae, 17 ‘Thug ding dé tinh tc d6 tang trung binh cia tang theo cap sé, su pha loang Vi dy 10: Thong ké sé hoe vién tai chite ding ky dy thi trong 4 nim cia mét co sé dao tao cho & bang duéi day. Tinh: 1/ Binh quén s6 dang ky dy thi trong 4 nam, 2/ Tc 46 dang ky dye thi ing binh quan trong 4 nam. Nam 2000 2001 2002 [2003 86 dang ky thi | 500 800 1600 | 3200 Giai: 1- Binh quan s6 dang ky dy thi trong 4 nam la: GMx = {500% 800% 16003200 = 1196 hoc vién 2- Téc d6 tang timg nar 2001 1a: 800:500 Vay tée do dang ky dy thi tang binh quan trong 4 nam la: GMx=\/1.6x 2x2 =1.86 Tie binh quan tbe 46 ding ky dy thi ting 186% so véi nimg trade. Noi mot eich khée, hang nim téc 46 tng binh quin dang kj dr thi 1a 86%, 1.7. Trung binh digu hoa 1.6; 2002 la: 1600:800=2; 2003 la: 3200:1600 = 2 1 HM = Lis N x, Ding dé tinh van téc, théi gian trung binh, ... Vi dy 11: Trung binh 1 gid, hoc vién A gidi duge 8 bai todn, hoc vién B gidi duge 7 bai tosn, hhge vién C duge 10 bai toan. Tinh téc a6 gid toan binh quan ciia 3 hoc vién trén. Gis: HMs=7— > = 8.15 baill gid ate 87-10 1.8. Trung binh cia hé: (trung binh gia quyén) N,X,4+N,X,+--4N,X, We u hoc tap sé ligu c6 trong sé, ... 10 thi m6n Tod theo bang dit kién sau: c D E 40 30, 60 Diém TB 80, 70. 65 80, 65 Giai: = 45x80 + 50x 70+ 40% 65+ 5080+ 6065 _ 17000 _ go 4 45+ 50+ 40+50+60 245 -10-Le Bite Nepe- Nhdp man xi itu vi && hogch ha thc mghitm1 22011 2. Cae tham sé dic trung cho sy phan tan eiia tip sé ligu 2.1. Phuong sai (o” hoac S’) Phuong sai la trung binh cia tng binh phwong sai khéc gitta céc gid tri clla tap s6 ligu id tri trung binh cia tap sé ligu ket qua do: 1.20 N'=N khiN>30 (07) N'c6 ban chat Id bac tu do cia tap sé Céng thite thye dung 4é tim phuong sai: 121 Phuong sai ciia hé: sth = NaS tN 1.22 Trong dé: S7 = Phuong sai dic trung cho sy sai biét cla cdc s6 ligu trong két qua do. Phuong sai cing lin, sai bigt cdng lon. Nguge Iai phuong sai cing nhé thi sai bigt cang nhé. Phuong sai cdn biéu dién dé phan tdn cla tip sé ligu két qua do d6i véi gia tri trung binh. Phuong sai cng lon 46 phan tin xung quanh gia tri rung binh cdng lén va nguge lai. 2.2. DO Iéch chudn (o; hoje S)) Dé léch chudn cia mét tap s6 ligu két qua do 1a gid trj cn bac 2 tri s6 phuong sai cia nd: hoe Sp = 8? 123 Dé léch chudn c6 cing thir nguyén va cing c6 ¥ nghia nhu phuong sai. Trong thyc té, ngudi ta hay tinh 46 léch chuan theo eéng thife sau day: k xt 124 N N Vi du 13: Xac dinh $ cita cdc diém sé khéng phan _nhom sau day: x é € 92 +9) 81 75 8 4 85 2 4 83 0 0 90 37 49 73 =10_| 100 79 4 16 80 3 9 38 +5 25 83 0 0 N=10 2d? = 348 oteLa Die Neves Nop mén it [Xe -83)' Bas Mean=83 S. 5.89 itu vi kb hooch hda thee nghigne222011 Meo ad " Vidy 14: Tinh d9 Igch chuan cia tap sé ligu due phn nhém sau day: x f eg eA 7-14 | 72 2 114 10368 65-69 | 67 5 335 22445 60-64 | 62 9 558 34596 35-59 | 57 8 456 25992 50-54 | 52 6 312 16224 z 1775 109625 Logi N, x, g, 1 12 80 8.578 2 in) 718 6.820 3 9 814 9.912 (NX, +N,X, + NiX,) 32 jaa V32 2.3. D6 sai chudn (cx hoge Sy) [re. 578? +0.131) +11(6.820? + 3.378) + 9(9.912? +3.105). D6 sai chudn bing d6 léch chuan chia cho cn bac 2 cia sé gia tri két qua do: 2.4. Hé sé bién thién (C,) Hé sé bién thién laty Vihg sé Khi d6 léch chuan Idn (S,) (tite sai bigt cia cde Vi dy 16: Danh gid su phat t Kgch chudn la 2.16 kg; trong khi a6, néu dénh gid theo chigu cao trung 4@ Iéch chuan la 4.04 cm. Hai danh gid nao mac sai s6 lon hon? 212+ (80-79.638)? = 0.131,d} = (77.8-7.638)° = 3.378:d; = (81.4— 12x 80411 77.8+9x814 79.638)" =3.105; 8.56; i thién khéng c6 thir nguyén, cho nén 6 thé dya vao hé sé bién thién dé so snh gin diing do sai bigt cia cdc két qua do thu nhén duge bang cdc céch khéc nhau gu do In), thi C, lon va ngugc k 'n ciia tré 7 tudi theo can nang trung binh la 20.37 kg vai do binh la 113.64 cm véiLE Dite Ngoc: Nhip man xt xd ltu wi kéhoach ha the nghigm 12/2011 2.16 20.37 Theo chiéu cao: CV = +4 100% = 3.56% 113.64 ‘Theo can nang: CV ==" x100% = 10.6% Vay theo cfn njing mic sai sé lon hon, Vi dy 17: 10 nguési hgc cé diém trung binh mén Toan va mon ngogi ngtr tong img li 85 va 72, trong khi 46 hoc 6 49 léch chuan cia mon Toan va ngogi ngit déu 1 6.82. Tinh Cv cho mén toén la: 8:82 100% = 8.02% 85 cy, Con Cv cho mén ngoai ngtt la 6.82 cr, = 47% Vay, tuy c6 d6 léch chudn gidng nhau, nhung sai s6 d6i vdi mén ngoai ngtt Ién hon. 3. Cae dc trung phan phéi théng ké cia tip sé ligu Dic trumg phan ph6i thng ké ciia mét tap s6 ligu két qua do la qui ludt phan bé ngdu nhién cia céc gid tri két qua do trén truc s6 thyc. Bac trumg phan phéi théng ké la qui luat, nén vé mat todn hoc né thuéng duge biéu dign bang mét ham s6 va c6 dé thi twong tng. MGi tap sé ligu két qua nghign ciru la mét tap s6 nhién (thudng 1a rai rac) c6 nhimg dc trung phén phéi théng ké ring va thong tudn theo 1 trong 6 qui luat phan phéi théng ké ngdu nhién phé bién nhat, d6 1a: 3.1. Phan phéi chudn (phan phéi Gauss)(u) - Ham sé cla phan phéi chudn duge biéu dién bing phuong trinh tofn hoe: ent ¥(X) en 1.27 ‘Trong a6: X: la bidn sé ngdu nhién, o: la hing sé, bang gid tri phuong sai ciia bién ngdu nhién. Goi u la chudn Gauss va dat: ueX=k 128 thay vao phuong trinh trén ta durge dang chinh tc cla ham phan phéi chudn: Ya)= 1.29 olan Dang chinh téc cia ham phan phéi chuan 1 dang cila ham phan phéi chun 4a chuyén hg tog 46 tir YX) sang Y(u). Néu dat o 1a don yj ca thang chia tryc hoanh ma gid trj cia nd duge xée dinh tir diém uén cia dong cong chudn ha xuéng tryc hoanh, js 14 tham s6 dac trung cho sy tap trung céc gid tri ciia ham phan phéi, thi ham phan phéi chun c6 dang chuéng Gp. chudn c6 dic diém la: XY =Mo=Med = “BeLe Bite Ngoc: Np més 8 lu vB hoch hd the mgiém122011 ‘Dé thi cla ham phan phéi chudn: 25 Po wzm se) | 95.48% 274% shuan: - Dang tich phan eta ham phan ph tin suat dén tir ~20 dén +c0 al J¥(u)du = Fw y bi J ¥(u)du = F(u) = P =tdn sudt dn tir -u dén tu fe fe a) » | | to ut +0 - Y nghia hinh hoc cua tich phan la dién tich gidi han boi duéng cong: F(-lo, +10) = 68.27% F(-20, +20) = 95.45 % F(-30, +30) = 99.73 % Dign tich nay ¢ chinh la tan suat don cila cdc gid tri nam trong viing lay tich phan. Dién tich nay cing bigu dign xac suat xudt hign cia cdc gié tri X; nim trong ving | Xac sudt théng ké gin lign véi khéi nigm dé tin cdy théng ké (P). Dign tich gidi han boi duimg cong cling chinh 1a 49 tin cy théng ké dé xudt hign X; trong khodng tich phan, Ki higu d6 tin cdy théng ké dé xudt hign gid tri X; nm trong ving (- «, X;) 1a P(X)).. D6 tin cay théng ké ludn 1a mét sé nhé hon hode bing | (P(X;) <1). Néu ki higu cc la D6 khong tin cdy thang ké, thi: Pra hay P=1-a hog a=1-P Khi P=1, diéu 46 06 nghia la xac sudt xudt hign gid tri X, 1a 100%. Trong xéc sudt, ngudi ta qui uée: Bién c6 c6 P = 0.9999 la bién 06 hodn toan chic chdin, Bién c6 6 P = 0.999 la bién 06 hét site chéie chén. Bién c6 c6 P= 0.99 la bién 06 rat chde chin. Bién 06 c6 P= 0.95 la bién 06 chic chin. Bién c6 6 P = 0.90 la bién c6 cé chiéu uecmg chéic chan. 141 Dite Ngoc: Nhdp mén x 6 liu va Ké hogch hb thee nghitm 12201 1 ‘Tir ham phdn phéi chun, khi cho mot gid tri u; (X) thi ta tinh duge dé tin c@y théng ké P,, img véi mot dign tich P; . Nguge Iai, khi cho gia tr P thi c6 thé tinh duge mot gid tri 4(. ‘Thay cho tinh todn, ngudi ta lap sin nhtmg bing sO dé tra gia tri w khi biét gid tri P hoac nguyge lai (xem phy lye A). 3.2. Phan phéi student (phan phéi t) Ham sé cia phan phéi student c6 dang: po WEA= aus) _ 1.30 Vai 131 S>ova tu 132 S¢ la 46 Iéch chuan, S, 14 d6 sai chudn ‘Ham phan bé t phy thudc vao bién sé t la m6t bién ngdu nhién. f: bc tudo (f=N - 1); B: fa mét hang s6. S¢ dé Igch chudn. Vay t bao git ciing phy thuge vao bac ty do. = Dé thi ciia ham phan phéi student: 3B 2 1 0 HH 42 43 _Khi X; la s6 66 tn s6 rdt lom (tite la s6 6 tn sudt rit 16m) thi ¢6 thé suy ra gén ding, X, = X (gid tri o6 tn sudt rt lon thi gié tri cla né coi nhu tring véi gid tri trung binh). DO thi cia him Student gidng nhu ham phan phdi chudn c6 dang chudng dip. N6 ¢6 day di cdc tinh chat giéng nhu ham phén phéi chuan. Nhung khéc & ché: 46 nhon ca dé thi ham phan phéi student phu thudc vao bac ty do Y(p, f). Bic ty do cang Ién thi d9 nhon cang nhé va nguge lai. Do d nhon phy thuge vao bic tudo, nén gid tri chuan t cing phy thuge vao bie ty do t(p,f). Trong thyc té, ngudi ta nhan sn. Dya vao bang nay, khi biét hai trong ba a tr, va P thi xc dinh duge gid tri cdn chura biét. “15.Le Bite Ngoe- Nhép mén si 8 itu vi ké hogch da tec nghitm 12/2011 C6 2 loai bang tra gid tri t (goi la bang phan vi cla chun t). Khi gia thiét théng ké: Néu gid thiét Néu gid thiét Ho: Xi= Xt Ha: Xi> Xi hole Xi < Xx ft fe be ow, aw 0 o Thi tra bang phan vj cua chuan t theo | phia | Thi tra bang phan vj cia chudn t theo 2 phia 3.3. Phan phéi Fisher Ham sé cia phan phdi Fisher c6 dang: por? YE, fi, £)=A 4 as Khi ldy cdc gid tri: 0< 4 30 va c6 1 trong 3 tinh chat sau thi tap sé ligu két qué do cé qui luat phan 1/ D8 thi phan phdi tin sudt c6 dang chuéng. 2/Mo=Med= X . 3/ X; nhfn ede gid tri Gngoaikhoing =» «XX +26 LA 5% ho’e X; nbn cdc gid tri nim trong khoang =X +20 lA 95%, ___ »NéuN<30 vae6 | trong 3 tinh chat trén thi tap sé ligu két qua do c6 qui luat phan phéi Student. -18-Le Bite Ngo- Np mens 6 liu vi kd hoach héa thee nghigm-12/201 1 So a} sau day cho thay cde qui lugt phan phdi théng ké 4a trinh bay chi 1a 1 truéng hgp rigng iia nhau ma thoi: YEAA)PY CH Phin phéi Ss} phéiF, F = Y.6.6) "? | YEA CYCD = Pe Ye.) OY@) t=u Phan phéi chudn u = Yo) [is X>15 x o hs z Phan phéi Poisson, P fe YC) P30 | Now Phan phéi ni thire Yea) Y¥(72,. PY) au12 Bie Ngoc: Nhap min x36 ligu vik hogch ha thee nghime 122011 CHUONG 2 ANH GIA TAP SO LIEU KET QUA DO. Mét tap sé ligu két qua do c6 thé duge phan tich danh gia théng qua cdc dai lvgng chinh sau day: 4.1. Sai s6 do C64 loai sai sé do: - Sai sé tuy@t a= Xi- XK a Xp 21 Sai sé tuyét ddi la sy sai khéc ciia mét gid tri do nao d6 vai gid tri trung binh (hodc gid tr] that). Sai kha nay c6 thé 1a am hode duwong. = Sai sé tweong déi: 100 22 Sai sé tong ddi la ty sé cia sai s6 tuygt déi d6i voi gid tri trung binh. Sai sé nay khdng ¢6 thir nguyén cho nén duge ding dé so sanh sai s6 tuong déi ciia cdc phuong phap do cho két qua khéng cing thir nguyén. ~ Sai sé hg théng: AX=X-p #0 23 ju s6 nay la dang tin céy tie la khée khéng la dang tin c@y thi s6 do 4a mic sai 6 gid tri X: tip trung vé mot phia cila gid tri thuyc trén truc s6. Sai s6 hé tim durge nguyén nhan gay sai sd hé théng 4é loai bé. -- Sai sé ngdu nhién: OX =X-pe 0 24 . Phép do mie sai sd ngdu nhién khi that gin bing khéng la dang tin cay. Khi d6 cde g trén true s6. Sai sé ngdu nhién bao gid ciing mac phai va chi c6 1 sai sé ngdu nhién, 4.2. DO chinh xac cia tap sé ligu két qua do. i trung binh cng biéu din dé tp trung ciia ede gid tri thye nghiém nén dO chinh xée cba tap s6 ligu két qua do duge danh gid thong qua gi tri trung binh cng. Gid tr trung binh. cng ma sai kha véi gid tr that cng nhd thi d6 chinh xée eta s6 do cang Ién va nguge lai Nguyén nhan dan dén d§ chinh xc kém c6 thé I = Chon mu khéng ding vé chat Iugng va sé lugng ii php do sé ligu khong chinh xéc su sé gitta gid tri trung binh cong X voi gid tri trj X; phan bé déu hai phia cua gid tr the im cc gidi phap dé giam cla cdc gid tri trong tap 6 ligu két qua 4 tr trung binh, Phurong sai cing nhé thi 49 sai bigt cng nhd va nguge Iai ‘Nguyén nhan chinh dan dén dé sai bigt lon: é iugng va sé lugng khéng dac trung cho myc tiéu do. + Tay nghé ngudi lam do kém, kh6ng thu thap duge sé do. ‘Thue ra gid tri trung binh cng X ciing phan anh phan nao d6 sai biét khi so véi gid trj that va nguge Igi gid tr} phurong sai S? eiing phan anh phan ndo d@ chinh xéc khi 46 sai biét nho. =20-Le Dite Ngoc: Nhjp man st 26 lu wi AE hoach hbathec mghifm-12/201 1 ‘Tuy nhién méi dai lung e tinh tri bigu dign cho 6 chinh xéc va d6 sai bigt khée nhau: X 6 tinh trOi phan anh d6 chinh xc, S? c6 tinh tr6i phan anh 49 sai bigt: Hinh vé minh hoa 46 chinh xée va d6 sai biée. BO sai bigt (Precision) Cue ky nho Lin Nhé ‘Dé chinh xéic (Accuracy) Cue ky t6 Tot Toi Két lugn ‘Ding — Tét Sai sé ngdu nhién Sai sé hé thong 4.4, Sai sé t6i da cho phép AP(X) Sai sé t6i da cho phép AP(X) ciia m@t tap sé ligu két qua do duge qui dinh: cho phép ly cée gid tri Xj sai khéc vai gid tri trung binh X lén nhat la +¢3o. NO phan énh tinh théng ké AP(X)= 330 25 da cho phép tuong déi: 2.6 da cho phép twang d6i durge bigu dign dui dang phan tram (%) do 46 khong yuyén, diing dé so sénh sai s6 tdi da cho phép tuong déi cla phuong phap do nay vai da cho phép tong d6i cia phurong phép do khdc. Nhiing gid tr két qua do ndo nim ngoai khoang sai sé téi da cho phép tuyét 461 phai logi bo (va goi cdc gid tri dé da mac sai sé thé). 4.5. Khoing chinh xac tin cy Khoang chinh xéc tin cay duge tinh theo cng thite sau: AX(P,D= X - n= tP,H.5; 27 ‘Trong dé: P: d6 tin cy théng ke fic tyr do cia tap sé ligu két qua do. Sy: BS sai chun Khodng chinh xéc tin cdy ciia mét tap sé ligu két qua do chinh la khoding sai Kh gita tri trung binh véi gid trj c6 mét dé tin cy théng ké cho truée. Nhu vay khoang chinh xéc cy cia 1 tap sé ligu két qua do phy thugc vao d6 tin cy théng ké (P) va bac ty do (f). Khoang chinh xéc tin cay cla mdi gid tri két qua do duge tinh nhw sau: AX(P,f) = Xi - X= t(P,.Sr 28 1(P,f): 1d gi tri tra 6 bang phan vi cia ham phan phéi Student. Khi mét tap 6 ligu két qua do c6 khodng chinh xéc tin cdy khong thoa man véi 49 tin cy théng ké (P) cho trude thi c6 thé tang thém s6 mu (N) do. S6 mau do can thiét dé 6 -21-Le Dite Ngoe- Nhip min sti 26 ligu vi Bd hogch hd thee nghifm-12/2011 khodng chinh xée tin cay tring véi khong chinh xée tin cay ly thuyét cho truée, duge tinh theo cng thite sau: ax 4.6. Khoang gidi han tin cAy cia mét tip sé ligu két qua do é qua do durge qui dinh nim trong } Trong dé: AX la cho trude 29 Khodng gidi han tin cdy cia mét tap s6 Khoang: X + AX(p,.N= X + tp. 2.10 Gid tri X; bat ky cba mot tap s6 Ii két qua do duge chdp nhan theo dé tin cay théng ké P cho trude, e6 bac tu do f= N-1 phi judn nam trong khodng gidi han tin cay va thutmg due biéu dign nhur sau: xi(K -AX + X +AXx) 241 Hay P=[X - t(p,f). S < Xi < X + p.. S ] 2.12 Vidy 18: Cho mét tap sé ligu két qua do: 33°32 30 3102229 32 4 33°33 25° 34-26 29353334 a/ Tinh céc dai lugng dic tring cia tip tren, by Phan tich dnh gid tap s6 Giai: Day cdc gia tri cia tép s6. su do duc sip xép Igi-theo thir ty ting din nhur sau: al ‘Theo céng thite 1.4 ta co: Med = He, + Xu, ]=32 + 35= 32.8, - Sé trung binh c6ng: ‘Theo céng thire 1.13 ta e6: ye py2t 2+ 434-438) =30.5 = Phuong sai Theo céng thite 1.20 ta 66: [(22-30.5)' +...+5-30.5)"]= 15.088 (Cé thé sir dung céng thite 1.21 dé tinh phuong sai) = BO léch chuan: ‘Theo céng thite 1.23 ta c6: S, b - Hés6 bién 39 Theo cng thite 1.26 ta cd: Cy = = 100 =12.7% 30.51 Bite Ngoc- Nhdp mn nf 36 liga vi kd hooch ha thuc mgr 12/2011 - Khoang giéi han tin cay: ‘Vai dd tin cay 95%, 4+ Tra bing phy Iyc A2 ta 06: t(p,f) = 1(0.95, 18-1) = 1(0.95,17) = 2.11 = a s, + 9S%CL = X £0(p, f)*Sy =X Ep. fx ahs ast 5051.93 Vay: P= (30.5 ~ 1.93 thing, thi tn €6 d6 tin cdy théng ké Ién hon dé tin ey théng ké cia thang. Vi vay tion dang tin cay va do dé higu sé X - p chi sy sai khdc gitta X va pla ding tin cay (ph nbn Ho, chép nban H,). ~ N&u trian = ting thi 46 tin cy bing nhau cho nén X - 4 thoa man dé tin cy théng ke ‘cho trurée. Noi céich Khde dé chinh xac tin cy ca tap s6 ligu két qua do thoa man 6 tin céy théng ké cho trudc. Trong truémg hgp nay, chiing ta chon tha méc sai lm logi 1 cn hon mac sai Kim loai 2 ludn théng ké. Nghia la tha két lun X khdc phon la két lun X giéng 1. dé chon quyét dinh cho phi hop. Do tuaeg phy thude 46 tin cay théng ké (P) cho true, nén mot két ludn théng ké rit ra duge chi ig voi mGt d6 tin efy thng ké cho trusie ma thdi. Khi d6 tin c@y théng ké thay d6i thi két ludn théng ké cling cé thé thay 44i theo. L§p ludn vé quan hé gitta chudn phn phdi t va két luan théng ké cing ép dung cho cée cchudn phan phéi khac. Va vige sir dung céc chudin phan phéi ciia cdc ham phan phdi dé két Jugn théng ké cho diing - goi fa kiém dinh thing ké (xem c&c vi dy cudi churong). oSLe Bite Ngoc: Np man xi 24 liu vi Bé hoaeh ha thee nghitm- 122011 Vi dy 19: Six dung 4 két qua do A, B, C va D. Két qua lam lap lai theo mdi do 6 Hin thu duge trinh bay trong bang sau: A Bosila C D 18.00 | 18.55 | 17.65 | 19.10 18.05 | 17.60 | 17.70 | 18.40 17.95 | 18.00 | 17.90 | 18.10 18.15 | 18.30 | 17.65 | 18.70 17.95 | 18.25 | 17.85 | 18.80 18.20 | 17.90 | 17.75 | 18.50 a/ Tinh gi tr] Trung binh va Phuong sai cla mdi do va nbn xét b/ Biét gid trj that la 18.1. Phan tich danh gid sai sé cla mdi mau do. Giai alulafele|-|z ee Bad strate © f+ ______+_. Dr yl acho me mae ga aig se es TS ri 18 19 = Theo céng thire 1.13, gid trj trung binh cia mau A duge tinh nhu sau: ¥s=4 SX, = 1 (8-+18.05-+417.95 + 18.15 +17.95 + 18.20) = 18.05 N = Theo céng thite 1.20, gié tri phuong 6 sia mau A duge tinh nhu sau: SO,-Fo Zeilis—18.05)* +(08.05-18.05) + + (18.2= 18.05)" J= 0.011 (C6 thé sit dyng c6ng thie 1.21 dé tinh phuong sai) = Tuong ty tinh gid tri trung binh va phuong sai cho céc mau B, C va D, thu duge két qua nhur sau: A B c D X | 1805 | 1810 | 17.75 | 18.60 Ss [oon | 0.113 | 001 | 0.120 bf Gia thiét théng ké: Ho: Hex 4p X-u ‘Theo céng thite 1.31: ¢, = =26-18 Dite Ngoe- Nh mén si 8 liu vi ké hooch héa thc nghifm-12/201 [18.05 -18.1) + D6i vi mau A, ta c6: t, 1.168 << tying (955) = 2+ Két lun: Ho: x= | > sai sé ngdu nhién _ [181-18] ~ D6i voi mau B, ta 06: f, = 0 << thing 955) = 2.57 Két luan: Ho: - Déi vi mau C, tacé: f= 8.174 >> tacossy = 2.57 Két luan: Hy: x # » — sai sé hé théng. ‘Trén thyc té, ngudi ta cn sit dung gid tri 46 tin cdy P-value dé két ludn théng ké: P-value mét phia = 0.5000 (gia tri cita z tai p = 0) - gid tri tra bang cla z P-value hai phia = 2(0.5000 - gid tri tra bang cla z) ‘VGi: P-value c thi chdp nhan gid thiét Ho, béc bo Ha. Vi dy 20: Diém thi bai trac nghiém trung binh cua khéi 10 1a 24, Ly ngdu nhién 36 thi sinh tinh duge gid tri trang binh 1a 24.7 vai d6 léch chudn 14 2. Dénh gid xem gid tri trung binh cia cde thi sinh nay e6 khée cua khéi khong? Gitis - Gia thiét Ho la p< 24, H, la p> 24 Hey _ 247-24 36 10, tra duige z (ct = 0.05) = (0.98214 - 05000 ) = 0.4821 - Tinh higu: 0.5000 — 0.4821 = 0.0179, trong truéng hgp | phia nay d6 chinh la P-value Vay P-value = 0.0179 < (a), két lugn: béc bd Ho, nghia la 36 thi sinh nay thye sy cé ‘diém trung binh cao hon khdi 10 Vi dy 21: MOt nghién citu tré Khuyét tat c6 chi s6 IQ trung binh la 80, kiém tra lai voi mau 1a 32 tré khuyét tt, cho thay ching cé chi sé 1Q trung binh la 82, véi dé léch chuan la 6. Tai = Tinh gid tri: w= Z =2.10 + Tra bang phy lye Al: z 00.05 véi mau kiém tra nhur vay 06 di d6 tin cay (P- value) dé cho ring nghién citu trén khac véi mau kiém tra khong? Gia: ~ Gia thiét Hy la w= 80, H, la p #80 H 80 _ 5188 V2 - Tra bang phy luc Al: 2 = 1.89, tra durge z (:=0.05) = ( 0.9706 — 0.5000) = 0.4706 + Tinh gi tri Z = ale1a Bit Ngoc: Nhap mn i 96 litu vi hoach héa the nghigm 12/2011 - Tinh higu: 0.5000 — 0.4706 = 0.0294, trong truémg hgp hai phfa nay, P-value can han v6i 2. ‘Vay P-value = 2(0.0294) = 0.0588 > 0.05, két lun: chp nhan Ho, nghia la két qua nghién citu khong khée véi mau kiém tra. 5.3. So sinh cp tham sé dic trung cia hai tap sé ligu két qua do Cé hai cap tham sé dic trng quan trong nhat thug phan tich so s4nh 46 * So sénh dé chinh xéc: Bac trumg boi X , khi dé c6 hai truéng hop chink: 1. So sénh X véi pp 2. So sénh X ava Xp * So sdnh dé sai bigt: dac trang bai S*. ‘Tuy theo Na va Ne nhé hay In, giéng nhau hay khde nhau, tién hanh so sénh theo cach khéc nhau, 5.3.1. So sinh dp chinh xe Nguyén tc so sanh la ding chudn u hoac chudn t dé so sinh, vi: ok -x, Xi=% hog p= Aa XB o Sp Sy V6i N > 30 ding chudn u , con N <30 ding chuan t. Cach tinh toan chuéin u ho§e t va so séinh véi céc gid tr] tra bang duge phan thanh cdc trudng hgp sau: 3.3.1.1. Néu Ny vat Ng > 30. Ding chudn u dé so sénh: ee ed iy 3 ox Sf oF VN Trong dé: d=Xq -Xp 3.2 33 34 5.3.1.2. Néu Ng va Ne < 30, ding chudn t dé so sdnh chia lam hai trong hop chinh, I/, NéuN, #Np <30. (gidng trudng hop 3.1.1) Up. f)= 35 Trong dé: d=X4-Xp 3.6 505, = [ARDS =D 37 38 £ = (Na- 1) + (No- = Nat No-2 39 -28-12 Bite Ngoe- Nhap min x36 ligu vi kd hogch ha the ng 12/2011 2./Néu Na = Ne = N'<30. Chia lam 2 tradng hgp. «a. Khéng lién quan v6i hau tieng doi mt 3.10 3. 3.12 3.13 V2 £=Na+Np-2 3.14 C6 lién quan tieng abi moi tp f) 3.15 Trong dé: du =X a —X m 3.16 3.7 3.18 3.19 f=Na-1=Ng-1=N-1 3.20 Vi dy 22: Cho két qua do ciia A va B: 1 2 4 4 2 6 2 8 ? 10 A 335 339 33.5 349 34.1 33.2 332 311 31 317 Boo311 32.9 328 31.9 33.0 316 32.1 315 31.0 31.0 Phan tich danh gid va phan tich so sanh 2 két qua do tré 3.02 Tuong ty ta tinh duge Y,=31.89 = Theo céng thite 1.20, gi via mu A duge tinh nhu sau: hong -29-La Dite Ngpe- Nhp man x8 3d ltu v3 AB hoach hb thee nghifm- 12/2011 Sou - ay =Ggles-s 02)" + (33.9 33.02)? +...+ 1.7 ~33.02)° = 1.679 Tuong ty ta tinh duge S} = 0.619 (C6 thé sir dung c6ng thite 1.21 dé tinh phuong sai) *Khéng lin quan tig d6i mét: Ho = 2 két qua do khong khéc nhau, H,=2 két qua khdc nhau, ~ Theo c6ng thite 3.11 d= 33.02 -31.89= 1.13 = Theo céng thite 3.12: B =1.0719 113. flo “19719 V2 101 = Theo céng thife 3.10: =2.357 Tra bang phy luc ta c6: ia 18) Két lun t,> t, > chp nh§n H,, bac bé Hp *Lign quan timg doi mot: Ho = 2 két qua do khong khéc nhau. = 2 két qua khac nhau. = Theo c6ng thite 3.17: a = Theo c6ng thite 3.18: Su= 113. V1.013 ty (0.95; 9)=2.26 > tenn > ty => chdp nhin Hy, bic bo Ho tt (0.99; 9)=3.25 — tin > t => chp nhin Hy, bac b6 Hy ‘Nhgn xét: - Khao sit ign quan timg di m9t va khio sét khong lién quan timg doi mot déu cho thay su khée nhau gitta 2 két qua. ~ Khi thay di d6 tin cdy théng ké thi c6 1 s6 trong hop 6 thé dn dén thay 481 Juan théng ké. 5.3.2, So sinh d6 sai bigt Vi Phuong sai dic trung cho 46 sai biét, nén so sénh phuong sai, Ngudi ta sit dung chudi 1-4-3 io S, ai bigt, chinh la so sinh Chuan Fisher: F(p.f.f))=—>- (S? >3) 3.21 thigt Ho: 3° duge chap nan Khi va chi khi (Fuh < Foing ( Psfi.f )). Gia thiét H,: S/? # Sz’ duge chap nhan khi va chi khi F dang tin cay . (Fann > Foing ( p.f1,8 ) ). khong dang tin c@ =30-LE Dite Ngoc: Nip mén at 2d ltu wi Kb hoch héa tec nghim- 12/2011 Viz > 1 nén:S? > SP Vig so sdnh rin Va Foing ludn phy thuge vao d6 tin c@y théng ké cho truéc. Vi du 23: Cho hai tap sé do A va B thu duge tir két qua nghién ctu nhu sau 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 A 440 456 442 4.59 455 4.45 455 439 4.75 4.72 B 442 447 4.70 4.72 453 455 4.60 464 429 4.52 12 «13 14 1S GTB 20 A453 466 490 4.50 445 466 480 436 4.75 4.22 Bc ee a/ Tinh céc dai lugng dic trung cua tap hai tap két qua do trén. b/ So sdnh gid tri phurong sai cita 2 tap két qua do A va B. Gis - Ap dyng céng thite 1.13 tacé: = 1 upd = Fisaors 56+4.42+...443644.75 +422) = 4.5605 Twong ty, tinh duce F, LD Haneaare 4+-4.56-+ 4.66) =4.556 = Ap dung cdng thite 1.20 ta c6: le s=tSe, rh Se Tuong ty, tinh duge S2 = ale 42-4556)? +...+(4.66-4.556)"]= 0.0139 al [4.40 - 4.5605)? +..+ (4.22~4:5605)?] = 0.029 20-1 by - Ap dung cng the 3.21: Foo os = 2.086 < Frssisiz S, 0.0139 Két luan: chp nhfn Ho, bac bé Hy -31-Le Dike Ngpe- Nhdp mén.nt bs itu vé ké hogch ha te nghiém-12.2011 PHAN IT PHAN TICH NHAN TO TAC BONG LEN SO BO CHUONG 4 PHAN TiCH HOI QUI VA TUONG QUAN CUA CAC NHAN TO 6.1, Hi qui va tuong quan hai nhan t6 Phan tich hdi qui va tyong quan la tim méi quan hé gitta hai nhan t6 X va Y xem ching tuén theo qui luat nao (¢6 thé duge m6 ta bing m6 hinh ton hoc nao). Cée qui lust €6 déu duge biéu dién bing mét ham sé. Trong cdc tuong quan, c6 tuong quan tuyén tinh duge sir dung nhiéu nbd. 6.1.1. Héi qui tuyén tinh H6i qui tuyén tinh gitta X va Y duge biéu dign bing ham s6 cé dang: Y=aX+b. 4d ‘Dé tim hé sé a va b ta phai giai hé phuong trinh : Y=No+ay xX = 2 42 Say =6x +a x? Gia hg phuong trinh trén, hé s6 a durge tinh theo cOng thite sau: ga YW-Y Yxy- Bad Se 43 re ay Can hé sé b duge a theo phuong vont 44 6.1.2, Héi qui phi tuyén tinh {i qui phi tuyén gitta 2 nhan té X va Y la m6t dudng cong, 6 thé mé ta bing duong hdi qui Parabon, Hypebon hay Ham s6 mi... J/Héi qui Parabon cé dang: Y=aX’+bX+e 45 ‘Dé tim cdc hé sé a,b, va c phai giai hé phuong trinh : DY aad x7 +b Xt Ne DAY =aP x? +6 x? +e X 46 Sey ax HbL HCE? 2/Héi qui Hypebon c6 dang : Y=aX +b 48 Dé tim cdc hé s6 a va b, ta phai giai hg phurong trinh : Dr=ay y+ No Dy Ad Ve OL Mx 49 32-Le Bite Ngoe- Np mén si 6 gu vi Ki hogch héa thue nghitm 12/2011 6.1.3. Hé sé twong quan (r) Spearman Hé sé r, danh gid mite d6 tong quan gidta X va Y: 4.10 Dau cia hé s6 tong quan: > O gitta X va ¥ 6 twong quan thugn. <0 gita X va Y cé twong quan nghich. Y nghia cita hé sé tong quan: 01>r>0.7 thi X va Y rét twong quan. 0.7>r>0.5 thi X va Y Rad tong quan. 0.5 > > 0.3 thi X va Y c6 tong quan. 03>r thi X va Y khdng trong quan. 6.1.4. Hé sé twong quan thit bic Spearman rho Hés6_p, danh gid mic 46 tuong quan thir bic c6 théng s6 hoge khéng théng s6 gitta 2 nhan t6 X va Y véi N s6 ligu do tinh theo cong thire sau: 2 ea") 411 rhe= | iNE =p Trong 46: = d la sy sai khéc gitta X; va Y;, Dé tinh gid tri d, X; phai dugc xép theo thir ty tir thap dén cao hoke nguge Iai, con Y, durge xép tuong tng timg cp. = N s6 sé ligu do (6 gia tri X; hay Y;). Vi dy 24: Khao sat két qua thi tric nghiém mén Toan (T) va mén Hoa (H) cudi hgc ki cila 10 hige sinh, cho 6 bing sau: HS = A 30, 25 B | 34 | 38 c | 32 [30 D 47 40 E | 2 [7 F 24 10 Gila [2 H | 25 [35 T 22 28 J 16 12 = [| 27 | 247 | 8359 “33.Le ite Ngpe- Nip mén xt sb liu vi ké hogeh hb thee nghigm- 12/2011 a-Tim phwong trinh hdi qui trong quan tuyén tinh, b- H@ sé twong quan Spearman, - Theo c6ng thite 4.3 ta ¢6: ye, - Hw, -7 Lay DEH 7530 alee 10 697.1 \. = x): (247)? 1254.1 a (x, -X)* a Nea 7355 . x : uN 10 ~ Theo dng thire 4.4 ta c6: b= ¥-a¥ =27.7- 0.556 x 24.7 = 13.97 Vay phuong trinh hdi qui tuyén tinh c6 dang: y = 0.556 x + 13.97 b- Hé sé twong quan spearman: 49539 2474277 753 217 10 {8356 10 c-H@ sé tuong quan Spearman-rho: 6x36 _|_ 216 _|_ 9.218 =0.782 10@00-1) 990 Két lugn: Tuong quan thir bac cht ché hon twong quan Spearman, ‘twong quan cia sy kign nhj phan Vi dy 25: Lay ngdu nhign 15 diém mén Todn trong bang diém cla mét lop hoc, két qua cho & bang sau day, trong dé cé diém ciia 9 Trai va 6 Gai: Cee Gee Choc rmmmicace ety Diém | 86 91 90 66 58 99 74 88 72 89 62 65 78 67 85 | (C6 phai kha naing Todn hoc cia Trai va Gai la tuong quan? Giai: bai toan, ngudi ta sir dung cng thite tinh twong quan nj that: Sooke. fog 4.12 % = Theo céng thire 1.13 tinh gia trj trung binh ciia diém sé con trai: 506914904 +67+85) =80 ‘Twong ty, tinh duge diém s6 trung binh cua con gai: z = Ssetbe 72 “+78 34Le ite Ngoe- Whip mn xt 6 ligu vi ké hogeh héa tac nghibm12/2011 ~ Theo céng thite 1.20, tinh phutong sai cita diém s6 con trai: [(86—80)? + (01-80)? +... + (67-80)? + (85-80)? 9 = DG léch chun cia diém sé con trai tinh ra la: 6, = 13.08 - Ty Ié con trai la p =9/15=0.6; Ty Ié con gai la q = p-1 = 0.4. diém trung binh cia Trai va Gai 5, = B6+91+90-+66-4---+67485 i 9 é sé twong quan tinh durge la: 80-75 = S52 06x04 = 0.187 VP9= 308 Bac ty do trong truong hgp nay durge tinh theo céng thite: f = N-2, vay ta eb: 5-2=13, tra bang twong quan ni phan ta durge? 7459.9, =0.514. VEY: Fux 1), nénz - Néu Funn < Foing thi Funh khong dang tin c@y, tte la $1? 4 S:? khdng dang tin ey cho nén ching duge coi ta gidng nhau. Ching khéng khée nhau cho nén nhén té A khi thay di mite da t6 ra khOng c6 anh hudng dén két qua do. = N&u Finn > Foing thi Fann ding tin c@y, tic la $1? # 8,” suy ra nhdn t5 A da anh huong len két qua do. 36Le Die Ngoe- Nip mon si sb liu va Ké hogch hb thee nghibm 12/2011 Nhan «6 F LT O%G-X! A k-1 SSa=SS2- SS; ‘Thi nghigm k(n 1) SSty = SS) - Sp Nham dé tinh todn, tranh nhim lan, ngudi ta lép bang céc cng doan tinh phurong sai 8 so sinh cho bai toan 1 nhan t6, k mic do van Lin lap lai nhur trén. Bang trén thyc chat da sir dung c6ng thie tinh phuong sai: 2% x? aya 52 Céc dinh nghia ki higu cho phuomg phap tinh, trinh bay é bang trén nh sau: 4= Dy ; 53 $= DDO) 54 ort R6i tinh Fenn: Fins -% $0 VOi_ Fhing(P, fa, fin) 56 Trong 46 fa =k 1; fy = K(nel), N= k(n) 7.2. Bai toan hai nhain t6 Bai todn phan tich phuomg sai hai nhan 16: han té A: k mite do. Nhan t8 B: m miic do. MGi mite thir nghiém lap Iain Lan. Bang qui hogch do eiia bai todn nh sau: A a a = a = a b | Yue [yan yunyua Yernyel2 1 +Yite 9 Yate sin senate ty | Yenyas | yauym Yeanyiar 2 Yita 2 ttn + Yian B by | unre Yanan Youn Yuna : + Yin “in 2 Yin okie ba | dimes [dante Yiels« Yim + Vina -Yonn 2 Yinn 2 yia 37Le Dite Ngoe- Nig md ir 36 litu va kd Roach ha tye nghiéme12/2011 Phuong phép tinh phuong sai cita qui hoach do 2 nhan té cho & bang sau Nhan té F TOK X s A k-1 SS, = SS2-SSs si Sa k-1 B m-1 SSp = $S;- SS. Si AB k-iy(ml) | SSaa-SSi-SS,-SSy+ $5, | 3, =——SS42 — GDiwrl) | SSw-S8rS8pS55+ S81 | Seo Gy Tho mk(n- 1) SStw= SS; — SS, Trong 46: + S,?: Dac trung cho anh huéng ciia nhan té A lén két qua do. - Sp’: Dic trumg cho anh huéng cia nhén t6 B len két qua do. = Sag’: Dic trumg cho anh huong ding thai cla ca hai nhan t6 A va B lén két qua do. - Sry’: Dic trung cho sai sé do. Cée bude tinh phuong sai theo bang trén nh sau: y= Dy 37 Trong 46: u - do lap lai thir u; i - mite d6i vi A; j - mite adi voi B ‘Céng thite trén chinh [a tong tat ca cdc két qua do trong mét 6. (I 6 la tuong img mé ta idu kign do xj theo mite A (a) va mite B (b,) trong 46 lim lap Iai n lan). as =( 9,0 58 Tang tat ca cdc kat qua do Ting tat ca cae két qua do trong 1 cét ‘rong | hang 4, =Dd yu B, =DS yu 39 ‘aie a Téng cdc c6t = ting cdc hang: ytd 5.10 (Cée gid ti trong bang trén dug tinh theo céng thite sau: 85, = PSY yw s-Lye seb pe sn kn 5.12 Lam do theo m6t qui hoach dinh truéc theo bang qui hogch hod do cia 2 nhan té anh hhudmg lén két qua do trén phai c6 3 truémg hgp so sénh nbur sau: Sa 5.13 iN K-11) va fry mk(n = 1) 381 Die Ngoc: Nip mn a 6 liu vi K& hogch hoa thee nghifm 12/2011 Vi du 26: Qui hoach hai nhén t6: A, k mite; B, m mite; mdi c&p mite lam Rap lai n Kin. A aL & a a » | 2 | 47 [ 34 136 139 | 58 | 483 132 »» | Bo [ 98 | 0 95 re au | 79 | 132 86 73 | 382 | 51 54.4 & | as | 327 59 55.2 » | 200 | or | 196 | 582 208°|" 609 | \185)'| 59.7 Giais 1. Téng cdc gid tri trong 1 O vudng Latin a a a & [Zhang bi 271_| 105 | 101.7 | 268 | 166.1 be | 391_| 377 | 272 | 181 [1221 bs 158 | 759 | 11.0 | 1096 | 2123 by | 408 [1210 | 381 | 179 [3178 Bet | 1228 | 245.1 | 1780 | 2724 | 8183 2. Binh phuong ting céc gid tr thye nghigm trong 1 6: a a as a by [734.41 | 11025 | 1034289 | 718.24 b | 152881 | 1421.29 | 739.84 327.61 by | 249.64 | 5760.81 | 121.0 | 1201261 by | 1064.64 | 14641.0 | 1451.61 | 13900.41 3. Tim ting s6 déi voi cde oft: Thi du: Al = 27.1 + 39.1 + 15.8+ 40.8 = 122.8 4, Tim tng s6 461 vi cae hang: ‘Thi du: B2 = 39,1 + 37.1 + 27.2 + 18.1 = 122.1 5.Tim téng tit ed cdc két qua + EEZyju=EA)= EB, =818.3 6. Tim tng binh phuong ciia tit ca cde két qua: $8 = EEZyyy? = 32916.43 7. Tim tng binh phuong cita tng céc c6t chia cho sé két qua mdi e6t: 1 4x2 SS, = (122.8? +245.1? +178? +272.4) = 22262.95 391 Dite Ngoe- Nhip mén xt sb lgu wi KE hogch ha thee nghit 12/2011 8. Tim téng binh phuong ciia tng cdc hang chia cho s6 két qua mdi hang: Ss “Gale = alto. #12217 4212.37 #3r7ty = BSS525 _ 3570 2 9, Tim s6 hang bé chinh duge dinh nghia nhu la phép chia cla binh phuong etia tng tat ca céc két qua cho tang sé sé két qua: Edw? | 32 SS, 32 10, Tim tng binh phuong cia sy sai khdc ciia A va B: SSq = SS2 - SSs= 22262.95 - 20925.47 = 1704.48 1645.25 SSp = SS3 - SS,= 23570.72 - 20925.47 11. Tim téng binh phuong cia phuong sai sai sé: 1 ssa=55,-! TD} 62916. -ETAG! 12, Tim tng cua téng binh phuong: SSiing = SSi - SS = 32916.43 - 20295.47 = 1190.96 13. Tim ting binh phuong cita sé hang tuong tac: SSaa = SSuing — SS —SSs~SSwisb 1990.96 ~ 1704.48 ~2645.25 ~ 54.13 = 7587.11 14, Tim phurong sai tuong img: 704.48 = 568.16; 22, SS, 54.13 Sane! cE ocd" tary" Tales Ghi thanh bang ta 66 = ‘Nhan t5 F cy s A 3 1704.48 568.16 B 3 2645.25 881.75 AB 9 7587.11 843.01 Sai s6 16 $4.13 3.38 Téng 31 1190.97 F, = St. = 58-16 _ 168.09 >> (0.95316) =32 3.38 881.75 _ 96087 >>3.2 3.38 $43.01 _ 349.41 >> F(0.959:16) = 2.54 3.38 Két luan: nhan té A, B va tong tac déng théi AB déu anh huéng manh lén két qua do. 40Le Die Ngoe- Nhdp mon 8 lit vik hogch hoa tec nghif 12/2011 7.3. Bai toan ba nhan t6 tré len: Phurong phdp O vudng Latin ____ Trong truéng hgp ¢6 ba nhan t6 tro lén, ngudi ta sir dung phuong phdp 6 vudng la tinh 4é xay dymg ma tran thir nghigm (Bang qui hoach thir nghigm). Ban chit cia phuong phdp 6 vung Latin la phwong phap phan & xy dymg bang qui hoach do theo m6t qui luét riéng. Gi thiét c6 ba nhan t6 A, B, C mdi nhan té 06 4 mic nghién ctu, MGi 6 mo ta 1 diéu kign do la t6 hop ede mute do cia 3 nha t6. Thi du: 6 1 Khi lim do A Kay mite a1, B léy mire bi. C ldy mite ¢. Nguyén tc xay dug qui hoach do theo 6 vudng Latinh nhu sau: khéng diege dé cho mét diéu kién do xée dink lap lai trong cing 1 hang hay 1 edt. Noi | céch khéc: trong bang qui hoach do khong durge eé hai 6 gidng nhau: +h phuong sai nhung a a a au : 1 @ % ce yunnyinaginns | yarenyenayars |_yonynaysns | yeunyoravars ie a 6 ce 1 Yunynayen [yaya | ymnyeyns | yenyenves ' © a 1 & yrowinayios [yrmnyevedess | yauynaysn | Yeanyomyens ' cs 1 @ @ * | yuenywayues [yennyzuayes | ysanysonyses | yasnyasyans Qui hoach hod do theo phuong php 6 vudng Latin ding phuong php phan phuong sai dé danh gid. Cach tinh phurong sai cla phuong php 6 vung Latin 3 nhan t6, mdi han t6 4 mite, lam theo nhur qui hoach & bang trén, cho 6 bang sau: hain té F De Bay se A SSq = SSz-SSs B n-1 ‘SSp = SS; - SSs c n-1 SSc = S8y- 88s ‘Sto = SS; - SSp - SS 2 TNo (a-1)(n-2) Sine = [yin 2d) = SS, +2885 (n=1)(n-2) Cach tinh cho bang trén la: Ar=yuit yiart yisst Yue Au: Téng cde gid tri y (y la gia tt] trung binh cia 3 lan thir nghiém lp ciia ciing diéu kign theo mdt 6) cé mite a; tham gia (tite 14 tong trung binh cdc két qua cla cdc 6 trong ct ai). 41LL Bite Ngoe Np mn xi 96 itu vi KE hooch da thee mghiem- 122011 ‘Tuong ty, ta tinh ede gid tri kha I: Az, Aa, Aa la tng cia cdc két qua o6 mite az, a3, ay tham gia tong ting. By, - By [a ting cia cdc két qua cd mite by, bz, bs, bs tham gia trong tng. Ci, .., Ca la tng eta cde két qua 06 mite c1, c2, ¢3, cs tham gia tong img. 82> Sy S14 SS; la tng binh phuong cia céc gid tri cé mat trong bang. le leo 1 S80 DA =e = UG 5.15 iguy eles y-liscy we? woe) wae 5.16 Phuong phap nay duge sir dung rat phé bién trong do néng nghigp, lim nghigp, sinh hoe, y hge va x8 hoi - tam li hoe. Vi dy 27: Qui hoach hoa do theo phuong phap © vudng Latin, 3 nhan t6, mdi nhan t6 4 mite. Giti: 5 Téng ha ing han, bi be bs by lied a “ ° 2 “) na 32 [27 49.2 72 & e cs 1 52.0 ._ 183 95 % ee e e 95.1 ® |46 59 318 53.1 e er @ 3 147.1 Guat |1A 7163 609 35.2 Tong co | 515 | 329 | 1570 | 1250 1, Tim tong ctia cde Ci: Ci= 70.5 5 Co= 135.7 5 C3= 116.9; Cy= 43.3 2. Tim ting binh phuong clia tit ca cdc két qua: SS, = Vy} = 13.27 2.7? +4 $5.2? = 14505.14 3. Tim trung binh cia téng binh phuong theo hing: 72.2? + 52.07 +95.17 4147.7 ~ 4 4. Tim trung binh ciia téng binh phuong theo cét: S15? +32.9% + 157.0? +125.07 SS, 9649.82 5S, 7 =11002.16 5. Tim trung binh tng binh phuzong theo C; 55, = 205? $135.7? +1169 +433" _go5) 54 4 28 Die Ngoe- Nhdp min 6 itu vi ké hogch héa thee nghibm12/201 1 6. Tim s6 hang bé chi 1 a4 —161.5+32.9+1570+125.0)" x4 SS, = —— (72.2 + 52.0 + 95.1+ 147.1)? = 8390.56 8390.56 | (70.5+135.7+116.9 + 43.3)? = 8390.56 4x4 7. Tim tong binh phuong d4i vi hang (44i voi A): SSq= SS; - SSs = 9649.82 - 8390.56 = 1259.26 8, Tim ting binh phurong d6i véi cde e6t ( déi véi B ): SSp=SS3 - SS = 11002.16 - 8390.56 = 2611.60 9. Tim téng binh phuong 44i voi O ( dai voi C): $Sc= S$, - $S5= 9731.31 - 8390.56 = 1340.75 10. Tim tng téng binh phuong: SSring= SSi - SSj= 14505.14 - 8390.56 = 6114.58 11. Tim tng du cita tng binh phuong: SSau= SSting - SSa- SSo - SSc SSqu = 6114.58 - 1259.26 - 2611.60 - 1340.75 = 902.97 12. Tim phusong sai cia A: Sq? = SSw/3 = 419.75 13. Tim phuong sai ela B: Sp? = $Sq/3 = 870.00 14.Tim phuong sai cita C: Sc? = SSo/3 = 446.92 15. Tim phuong sai sai sé: Sss*= 902.97/6 = 150.5 ‘Cac két qua duge trinh bay trong bang sau: Nhanté | F 20 = A 3__ | 1259.28 | 419.75 B 3. | 2611.60 [| 870.00 c 3 | 1340.75 | 446.92 Sai s6 6 902.97 150.50 Téng 15 6114.58 = 419-75 9 64 < F(0.953:6) = 4.8 Si, 1505 Sh 51000 554; Aa Sk MOD na gg cas Si 1505 Si 1505 Két luan : Chi cé yéu t6 B [a anh hudng lén két qua do.Le Dite Ngoe- Whip min si 8 itu vi ké hogch ha tec nghitm 12/2011 PHAN UL. PHAN TiCH NHAN TO CHUONG 6 PHAN TiCH TAC DONG CUA CAC NHAN TO KHONG QUA THAM SO LEN SO BO 8.1. Bai todn cé tham sé ty Ié gitra 2 nn t6, mdi nhén t6 2 mire Gia sir khio sit mi quan hg git hai nhan «6 X va Y, X 06 2 mite dé la Xi va Xa, ¥ 6 2 mite la Y1 va Yo, két qua do khao sit trong N trudng hgp, biéu din nhur sau: ir x Xi x jz Yi [ay | be.) arb Y [ie [een | dQ.¥0) etd =| ate btd Neatbretd Trong a5 a(X,Y1), b(X2,¥1), (Xi¥2) va d(X:,Ya) lat cde két qua do mang céc dic trung twong tig ciia 2 nhdn t6 X va Y. C62 loai danh gid déi voi loai két qua do nay: - Banh gi anh hung ciia X len Y, khi d6 ding chun Khi binh phuong dé danh gid. ~ Dénh gid trong quan gitta X va Y, khi d6 ding hé sé tong quan dé dank gid 8.1.1. Ding chuén Khi binh phucong (7) dé dink gié Ho =X; va Xz khéng anh hung khde nhau d6i véi Y. Hy = X; va X2 anh hudng khdc nhau déi v6i Y. ~ Bat ding thite dah git toh < 7Coing thi chp nhan Ho, béc bo Ha: 2tion> 7Zeang thi béc b6 Ho, chp nhan Hy Trong dé: N(ad - be)? (a+ b)et dat olb+d) 8.1.2, Ditng Hé sé twong quan dé dénh gi - Tinh hé s6 tuong quan r Spearman: ad-be (a+ bet dya+cb+d) -lvab=¢=0thir=+1 ad > be thi r > 0; ad > 7°[0.95; f = (2-1)(2-1) = 1) =3.84 = 150.55? _ 0.6975 _ 9 VN-2 /298 17.26” ‘anh gié theo chudn t: 0.55 (= gg 713.752 10.95:298) ¥1.65 Ki tri t dang tin ey, tire la hé s6 tong quan lén hon sai s6 do, (r>> sr), do vay: chat phu gia va d6 bén nhiét o6 méi lién hé mét thiét véi nhau. 8.2. Bai toan ty Ig gitta 2 nhan t6 X (c6 s mite) va Y (c6 r mite) Gia sir khao sat méi quan hé ciia 2 nhdn t6 X (c6 s mite) va Y (c6 mite) trong N déi tuong .Két qua khao sat co thé trinh bay trong bang sau day: Xi X Xi a Xs z ca 2 me ence ~ {™ ni NPi NP io NPy NPs M1 m2 ny Tas y. o : NP NP2 NP Nes | _™ Y, [ma na ny Tis . ni, NP NPa Nj NPs y, | Re [te 1s nh NP a NP2 NPG NPs z m1 na be nj of ms N Trong 46: 1, [a6 gid tri c6 dac tinh X; cla nhan t6 X. 1, [a sé gid tri cé dac tinh Y cia nhan t6 Y. nj la s6 gid tri c6 dang Y, cia nhan t6 Y va 6 dang X; cia nhan 06 X. 4518 ite Ngoe Np més lu vi ki hog ha tc nghitm 12/201 1 Nhu vay, xde sudt dé 1 s6 do c6 dic tinh Y; (hoe X;) = tan sudt xudt hign sé do 6 dic tinh Y; (hoge X)) duge tinh theo céc céng thire sau: a N P= va PX,) 64 1 65 va YP) = Va xée suat dé 1 sé do vita e6 dac tinh Y; vita 06 dic tinh X; (duige xem 1a 2 bién 06 46 duge tinh bing céng thire sau: = P(Y:.X)) = PCY)P(X)) hay. P, 2a - 66 voi Don Khi d6 ta cone thie: 6.7 o€ bing(p.f) vai f=(r-1 (s- 1) fh > x bang thi X anh hudng lén Y (X va Y kh6ng déc lap) tinh < x? bang thi X khéng anh huéng lén Y (X va Y d6c lap) Vi dy 29: Didu tra 100 thanh nién vé dae diém: thich mau son vang va khéng thich, ta c6 két qua 6 bang dui. ‘Nam Ni Téng B 32 55 S (22.55) (32.45) Khong 18 27 > (18.45) (26.55) Téng 4l 39 n= 100 Co thé xem so thich vé mau son khéng phy thuge gidi tinh khéng (vai mite a = 5%). thidy: Np, =N- = Theo céng thite 6. sien esais 18.45 = 0.00898 + 0.0062403 + 0.0109756 + 0.0076271 = 0.033823 ins? = 0.033823 < Yue tang? = 3.84 (WGI P=0.95, f (2-1)(2-1)=1) Két luan: Sé thich mau son déc lap vi gidi tinh. 461a Dite Nepe- Whip mon xi 36 lit vK8 hoch hia thee nghiéme 22011 8.3. Bai ton so sinh 2 ty Ig XY x; - Désosinh 21 le: p, aa he ROG ta ding chuan t: 68 Trong d6 : 69 = 2 diéu kign ap dyng céng thitc trén: 1/ Miu phai ai lin, ft nhdt phai 6: Nap sNep 2 5 vaNaq,Naq 2 5 2/ p vag phi 0.5 , nghia la xa 1 va 0, cu thé ta phai od: p>O.1 vaq<09 hoie p<0.9 va q>0.1 - Két ludn théng ké: * Gia thiét théng ké: Ho: pa: * Két ludn théng ke: It] < 1.96: chp nhan Ho, bac bé Ha (a. = 0.05 ) | t]> 1.96: chap nhan Ha, bac bé Ho (a = 0.05 ) Vi du 30: Dinh gid chét lugng phn bén & 2 nha may A va B, nguoi ta thu drge: + & nha méy A: khdo sét n; = 300 bao, od: m, = 250 bao dat chat lrgng + nha may B: khao sét n2 = 400 bao, c6: 240 bao dat chat livgng Véi a= 0.05, hay so sinh xem 2 nha méy c6 ty 1é chét long nhwr nhau khéng? 3 Ha: pat pp Gi Bai toan so sénh ty Ie 250 = =0833 va 500 va qi 240 == 0.6 va ge = P= 799 705 V8 250+240 300+400 — 0.833 = 0.167 0.6=04 0.7va q=1-0.7=03 65 >> 1(0, = 698) Két luan : Ty Ié chat Iugng san pham ciia A va B la khéc nhau. 4712 Bie Ngoe- Nhdp men ne 48 leu vi kéhogch a the nghiie 122011 CHUONG 7 MO HiNH HOA THY NGHIEM DA NHAN TO BAC MOT DAY DU VA RUT GON 9.1. Dai cwong vé mé hinh hoa thyc nghiém da nhan té _ __Vénguyén téc moi su kin déu o6 thé qui vé mét qui ludt, qui ludt dé phai duge mé ta bing nhting céng cy khée nhau, chinh xéc nhat la sir dung céng cy todin hgc. Todn hgc la khoa hoc mé ta cdc qui luat, khi 46 goi la mé hinh hoa ton hoc va duge biéu dign bing cdc phuong hay ede biéu thie todn hoe. Cac phyong trinh toan hoc duge biéu dién bang nhing ham s6, dén lugt cdc ham sé Iai duge biéu dign bing cdc 46 thi. _ Phuong trinh todn hoe téng quat nbét la da thitc, vi vei moi logi ham sé cudi cing du 6 thé qui vé dui dang da thitc. Mt da thite t8ng quat (Phuong trinh hai qui) 6 thé mé ta cho bat ky ham sé ndo. Da thire c6: da thite ba 1, bae 2, cao. Tuong ting véi bac cia da thite 18 46 chinh xac cia ‘m6 hinh, Bac cng cao thi mé hinh m6 t& cdng chinh xéc qui ludt va nguge lai: VE DBx, + bye, + bmx Me tot BaF ts a ta or Trong dé: ~y: ham mye tiéu, mé hinh nghién eiru mé ta qui ludt tim durge. = x: mhan t6 hode sy kign hay nhan td anh hudng lén ham muc tiéu. ~ bi: hg sé hdi qui bac 1, mé ta dinh tinh va dinh Iugng anh hudng cua nhan té x; lén ham myc tidu. ~ by: hé sé hdi qui bac 1, mé ta Anh hudng ding thai ca 2 nhén t6 x; vA x). ~ big: h 6 hOi qui bac 1, mé ta anh hudng ding théi cia cé 3 nhain t6 xi, xj va xy. 6 hdi qui bac 2, mé ta anh huéng bac 2 ciia nhan t6 thir x; lén két qua thye nghiém. Hé s6 hdi qui cua phurong trinh hdi qui cho ta biét: Ve gid tri tuyét di b; m6 ta mite d6 nh hudng cua né: gid trj 16m thi anh huréng manh, gid tri nho thi anh hung yéu hay khdng nh hung. - Vé ddu cua hé sé b: b> 0: anh huréng tich eye lén ham mye tiéu vi né Lim ham mye tiéu tang len. b <0: anh huréng tigu ewe fén ham muc tiéu vi né kam ham myc tiéu giam di FE nghia ciia ham mye tiéu: Phuong trinh him muc tiéu hoge phuong trinh hdi qui him m6 t& anh huéng oa tat ca ede yéu t6 fen qué trinh bang mét phuong trinh. Khi tim duage him muc tiéu m6 ta ding thye nghiém, ching ta sé tinh tneéc duge gid tri cla ham myc tidy, te la tin durge két qua nghién ecru ma khdng cdn lam nghién ein __ Nguyén tic tim cac hé s6 hdi qui: c6 bao nhiéu an sé (hé sé hdi qui b) thi it nhét phai 6 bay nhigu phuong trinh (néu khong thi phuwong trinh sé v6 dinh hod v6 nghiém). Vi dy: 06 3 nhan t6 x, x2 va x3 anh huang lén két qua nghién citu y. Phuong trinh hdi qui be mét ba nan t6 c6 dang: Y= DX + BX, + Dy Xy + Dyxy + ByyXXq + By gXpXq + DygXyXz + ByygXyXQXy 7.2 Phuong trinh hdi qui trén cé 8 sé hang, néu tim ra 8 hé sé b 1a sé thuc, dé dat vio phuong trinh hdi qui, Khi dé ta duge mOt mé hinh mé t& déi tugng nghién citu, vA c6 thé khéng edn lam thye nghigm ma van tinh ra duge két qua nghién ettu bing mé hinh tim duge néu mé hinh dé mé ta ding. 48Le Bite Ngoc: Np mon at 6 liu vi kB hogch ha thee nghibm.12/201 1 9.2. M6 hinh hoa thye nghigm bie 1 day di ‘Néu mi nhan t6 chi lay 2 mute thye nghiém thi sé cdc sé hang cia phuong trinh hdi qui bac 1 day di, duge tinh theo céng thie: Ne? 73 = N: s6 sé hang cia phuong trinh hdi qui bacl (chinh la sé thye nghiém phai lim) =n: s6 nhan 16 anh hudng én két qua thye nghiém. - 2: 86 mite duige chon Adi véi mai nhan td. Thi dy cé 3 nhan té n = 3 thi s6 sé hang sé la N Cé bén loai sé hang chinh: = boxe: t5 hop chap 0. = bx: t6 hgp chap 1. ~ byxixi: 16 hop chap 2. = Biaxin Tim sé sé hang ciia mbi loai t6 hgp, ngudi ta ding cng thite to hyp dé tinh: = 14 (n—a! phuong trinh 3 nhan t6: S6 s6 hang chap 0: 6 sé hang chap 1: 1 C8 et Ghar oe 18 03-0)! uG=D! 86 sé hang chap 2: 86 s6 hang chap 3: 3 3! C= ee connect 16 21G=2)! 3° 3RG-3! Nguidi ta diing cdc, gid tri ma hod cho méi nhan t6 va chi chon 2 mite dé lam thy : mite cao + | va mic thap - 1. B§t X;, X2 va X; la cde ki higu chi gid trj thy cia 3 nghié f nhan t6 é tién hanh thy nghiém, bang dieu kign thye nghiém trinh bay nhu sau: Bang 7.1. Diéu kién tién hanh thye nghiém Xi % x Mite géc (0) 0 Oy 03 Khoang bién thién (2) AL de as Mite cao (+1) Ot tha 0+ As Mite thap (-1) 01-1 02 - Ar 05 - As, _ __ Céc gid tri 0, +1, -1 la cdc gid trj ma hod cée mite thye nghigm trong ma tran ding dé tién hanh thye nghiém. Dé xac dinh 8 hé sé la sé thye cia phuong trinh hdi qui, phai tién hanh 8 thyc nghigm, 8 thye nghiém nay duge trinh bay dui dang ma trén thye nghigm nhur sau: xo, X1, Xa, X3 ld ki higu ma hod cia cde nhan t ta Kho sét anh hudng cia ching én két qua thye nghigm. Con yi, Yo Ki higu cho cdc gid tri két qua thyc nghigm lan thir 1 va lan thir 2. Y nghia hinh hoc cla bang ma tran trén duge biéu dién qua 1 hinh hép ma 8 dinh cia né turong tmg véi 8 thi nghigm cho thay & hinh 7.1. 49LE Die Ngoe- Nhdp mn xis litu vd hoach hia tue nghlém-1222011 Bang 7.2. Ma tran thye nghiém 2° NI] oxo [x [oe |x | xm | xes | x | xvas | yn |e | tlafatata yaya fa [a vi 2fafaHlfafafafalau ye age | ae | 4 ys 4fa[afea{afa pa [ata ys sfa[afafafa fafa la ys efafaHf[afH#]faf[afaf- ¥ 7Tlafafaltafa fala [a yr sfafafafaftalala a ys » % Hith 7.1. Cac diém sao va diém tam cia ma tran thec nghiém 2° Ma tran thye nghiém d0i hoi phai tuén theo 3 diéu kign sau: 1. Ma trén thure nghiém cé tinh chat chudn hod: a7 xj: nhan t6 anh huréng thir i. us thi nghigm thir u. 2. Ma tran thye nghiém c6 tinh chat déi xing: dx, =0 78 3. Ma tran thyrc nghiém c6 tinh chat tryc giao: x XX py = 19 Cac bude dé giai bai toan mé hinh hoa thye nghigm gim: Buée I: Lép ma trén the nghiém. Lap ma trn thye nghigm theo 3 tinh cht trén, d& thugn tign, ngudi ta lap bang ma trén gée theo mét sé ma hod: dau 4m (-) chi mie thép, x; ghi trong bang chi ring né lay mite cao (4), xi khong xudt hién tite 1a dy mire thap (-), ghi & bang sau: 50Le Bite Ngoe- Nhdip mén xB 6 itu vik hogch héa thee nghiém-12/201 1 Bang 7.3. Bang viét tit ma trén thye nghiém géc tir 2° dén 2° a a 2 N L 2 3 bee ee 4 [sep opesiSaliaesmers sume 2 6 7 8 29 30 31 32. Bub 2: Lim thi nghiém theo ma tran thc nghiém. ‘Lam thuc nghigm lap lai dé ldy gid trj trung binh. Thirty tién hanh thye nghigm phai ngdu nhién dé trénh sai s6 hé théng. 16 s6 ngau nhién ciia 32 thyc nghiém lap nhw sau: 2,15, 9; 5, 12,14) 8,13, 16 1, 3,,7,°4, 6, 11, 10. 15, 13, 10, 5,14, 4, 6, 1, 7, 8, 3, 2, 9,12, 11, 16. Buée 3: Dénh gid sw lap lai ciia thi nghiém. ‘Néu méi thi nghiém ug tién hanh a Lan (a-s6 lan lap lai cita thi nghiém), danh gid sy lap lai cia thi nghiém theo chudn Cochran: stLE Date Ngo: Np mn si 8 liu va kt hoach ha the nghitm-122011 Cay 7.10 zs Trong 46: S2=YVOn- 7 ‘Véi u: thye nghigm thir u; a: s6 thire aghiém tap lais N: sé thye nghigm Goang(P.fi,f) Vai: -1vafh=N@-1). Nu Grinn < Going thi Grin 18 khOng dang tin cy, khi dé $3 (max) la sai s6 Ién nhét cia thy nghiém khéng In hon tang sai s6 toan b6 thyc nghiém. Vay thye nghigm lap lai :u Guan > Going, thyre nghigm khong lip Iai thi a phai tang lén cho dén khi Gish < Going vi khi Lim thém thye nghiém sé cho X cang gan gid tri thyc. Buse 4. Tinh cdc hé sé hdi qui bang cdc céng thite sau: » Dred a TAD TAB Bude 5, Dénh gid tinh cb nghia ctia hé sé hoi qui: Vi b* chi ra anh huéng dinh tinh va lung cia céc-nhan 06 1 qua thy nghigm, nén phai c6 b, > sai s6 cua thyc nghigm thi Khi d6 gid tri ciia hé s6 b; moi goi la ¢6 ghia. Vi vay, mét hé s6 hdi qui duge coi Ki c6 nghia néu tho main bat ding thic sau: tinh > W bang (PA) Voi: bil Sy, a/ Trutmg hgp 1: Vei thyre nghigm chi o6 thi nghiém lip tam 7.14; trongdd: Sj, TAS Lor-wy 716; Trong dé: 32 voi m: sé thyc nghiém lip & tam va: f=m—-1 (6i thi nghiém tién hanh a lan. ays 718 b/ Trutmg hop Trong dé: f= N(a—1); Nhiing hé s6 nao khéng thoa man bat ding thie trén thi duge loai bd khoi phuong trinh hi qui. Vige loai bé nay chi phan anh anh huréng cua nhan t6 c6 hé sé bo di len két qua thu nghiém nhé hon sai sé thye nghiém. Buée 6. Dénh gid tinh phi hop ciia phwcong trinh héi qui tim chege: anh gid tinh phi hgp ciia phwong trinh héi qui 18 danh gid mé hinh thu duge mé ta thi nghiém dung hay chwa ding. 52Le Bite Ngoe- Nhdp mén x sb tiga vi ké hogeh hoa thee nghitm- 12/2011 Str dyng bat dang thite: Funk < Feing(Pyfi,f2) 719 Seaboe 2 LSo is) Fag BPE v6 Sooann= Hy Eye Fn) 721 Trong 46: : két qua thyc nghigm thir u tinh theo phuong trinh hdi qui sau khi 43 logi bo 0 khéng cé nghia. “Yu -Fu- Ju: sai 6 gida Ly thuyét va thye nghigm 6 thye nghigm thir u. nhing id tr trung binh eta a lan thye nghigm eta thye nghigm thir u. a/ Trung hgp 1: Voi thye nghiém chi cé thi nghiém lap 6 tam st=_ Sot 5 7.16 Voi: f =N—L; f =m~1 (m-s6 thye nghigm Igp 6 tam) b/ Truémg hgp 2: Mai thi nghigm tién hanh a lin, 1 Si=—> Ss? e wy 7 718 -Lf=N@-1); 36 sé hang cn lai sau khi danh gid tinh c6 nghia cia cdc hé s6 hdi qui Néu Frich < Foing thi sai khéc gitta ly thuyét va thye nghigm la khéng dang tin cay, nén m6 hinh m6 ta ding thye nghigm. Vidy 31: Nghién ciru 46 dan nhigt cia phan thang hoa sinh ra khi clo héa xi titan néng chay. Dé tinh todn vé cde may cia hg thng ngung ty khi thiét ké may clo héa, ta clin phai biét hé s6 «din nbigt rigng ca phan thang hoa. Bé dan nhigt duge xéc dinh theo nhiét d6 cua nd, mat 46 cila chat va thanh phan héa hoe. Cac bién déc lap duige chon la:1/ Z;: nhigt 46, °C; 2/ Za: ham Iurgng Clo trong phan thang hoa, % trong luqng; 3/ Zs: ti sé néng 46 SiO) va TiO, trong phan thang hoa. Dé thuain tign cho vige nghién ctu ngudi ta dura vao bign Ao Xo, Xo= 1 va ta ¢6 ma trén qui hoach véi bign do durge trinh bay trong ma tran quy hogch vdi bién ao 2° Bang 7.4. Phuong 4n tién hanh thi nghiém duge viét duéi dang ma tran 2° Cae nhan té theo tilé xich ty nhién Cae nhan t6 trong hé ma hoa hinge “i Lh Zs atO|E x= far | y 1 300 | 45 1.25 + | + | + | 296 2 200 | 35 125 3 myeifevete |e 122 3 300 35 1.25 + - * 239 4 200 45 1.25 - * 586, 5 300 45 0.75 - a - 232 6 200 | 35 075 : - = | 292 7 300 | 35 075 + - - | 339 8 200 45 0.75 - + - 38314 Dic Ngoc Nip mom 28 ligu vi Kéhogch hia the nahi 122011 ‘Trong vi du trén vi khong lam thi nghiém lap lai tét ca cae thi nghiém, nén dé xac dinh phuong sai Igp lai (sai s6 thi nghiém) ta lim 3 thi nghigm lp 6 tém va nhin duge ba gid tri cca ham muc tigu y nh sau: y =295; 8 =312; yh =293 Xée dinh phuong trinh hdi qui bac 1 day di mé ta thye nghiém. Voi Cie buse gia Phuong trinh hdi quy bac mét ba nhan t6 day du cé dang nhu sau: y= bo + Bixy + boxe + byxs + byaxixy + bisxixs + basxoxs + bi2sXiX2Xs, Dé thugn tign cho vie tinh todn, ma tran ké hoach héa thyc nghiém duge mé rong. trong bang sau: y Stt | Xo | xi | x2 | Xs | xiX2 | XIXs | XaXZ | _XIKDXZ_ Calim:hC 1f+l+l+l+/+]f+f+]+ 296 Delia] nena? | acleantlose | + 12 se eee | eel z 239 a}a]- +] -]-]+ - 586 sf+fe]e]-]ad- | - : 232 6 + - - - a + - (292 atete]-]-]-]- d+ doe 339 gl+{-];4+4]-] - + e + 383 ‘Trong d6:°P = 41 va =I Y Buse 1. Xée dinh cdc hé sé héi qui by = Xée dinh cdc hé sé bo, bi, bz, bs Dias N ki gn déu c6t x; vao e6t y twomg img theo hang), ta c6: 2 Brae 1.296 + 12122 +1239 + 1 586 + 1x 232-4 1x 202-4 1339 + 1383 8 8 Ap dung cong thie 7.12, 6, (tir sé la phép toan tinh téng ctia cde gid tri = 311.125 we 1296 + (1) 122 +. (1) «383 ~34.625 8 8 Tuong ty, xde dinh duge by = 63.125; bs =- 0.375 + Xéc dinh cde hé s6 bya; bas; bis Dhaka de Ap dung cng thite 7.12: 6, Sp te 6 la phép toan tinh téng cia ede gid tri khi gan déu c6t xix) vao e6t y trong ting theo hang), ta c6: 541L& Die Ngpe- Np mén sit 6 lu vi Ké hoaeh héa thee nghiom-12/201 1 Sat, Sane 8 1296 +1x1224 (-1)x239+ x 586-4 1x 232+ 1292+ 8 339 + (1) x 383 =~15.625 ‘Tuong ty, xdc dinh duge bz3 = 67.125; bjs = 8.625 - Xée dinh hé s6 bios. Xin ju% eV Ap dung céng thite 7.13, by, 7 gid tr khi gén du c6t xixjxx, vao e6t y twong ting theo hang), ta ¢6: 8 Dt 8 1296 +1122 + (-1) «239+ (1) 586 + (1) x 232+ (C1) x 292-4 1339 +1383, 8 (tur s6 1a phép toan tinh tng ciia cdc = 26.125 Y Bude 2. Dénh gid tinh cb nghta ctia hé sé hdi qui Tinh c6 nghia ciia cdc hé sé hdi qui duge kiém dinh theo tiéu chuan t: ibl bi fe dek= Se . Do vay ta tién hanh céc bude sau: VN Vi dy trén thye hign 3 thi nghiém Ip 6 tam, nhdn duge 3 gid tri y’ =295; y? =312; y! = 293. Theo cdng thite 7.17 ta c6: 3 Ap dung cng thite 7.16, ta c6 Soy a yw Dw 2954312 +298 _ 300 (v6i m la sé thi nghigm Igp 6 tim) (295 — 300)’ + (312-300)? + (293-300)" S 109 m= 3-1 - Xée dinh Sp. Ap dung céng thite 7.15 ta e6: 2 2b Os a3.69 v8 = Xéc dinh t; y,, Ap dung céng thie 7.14 ta c6:1 ite Ngpe- Nip min xi 38 lit vs ké hogch hd thee mghitm- 12/2011 Tuong ty, tinh duge ts = 0.102; ta + Xéc dinh ttra bang Voi P= 95% ‘Tra bang 2 chiéu trong phy luc A2 ta 06: to9s (2)=4.3, ‘Nhu vay, ts < t,(f) va tis ++ [+ | 296 | 305 81 2y+}-]-]+] +] - | + J 122] 1325 | 68.0625 3f+}e]-]+] - 1 - | - | 239] 248 a1 a}+}-]+#]+] - | + | - | 586 | 57775 | 68.0625 ee ee eee | ees | oak 227 al 6/+}-]-]-] +] +] - J 292] 30025 | 68.0625 ryetet- |e] - f+] + | 339] 330 81 s[+]-]+|-] - | - | + [383 | 30125 | 68.0625 ‘Bé thuan tign cho vigc tinh toan, ta Kip bang ma tran chita cdc dt § va (yu- $,)° Trong dé: 3, :két qua thye nghigm thit w tinh theo phuong trinh hdi qui sau Khi da loai bd cdc hé sé khong cé nghia (phuong trinh *). ye két qua thyre nghigm thir u = Xdc dinh Sphutep theo phurong trinh 7.21 ta c6: _ 20% =P)" 596.25 sien NE 8-6 ~ Xéic dinh Fy theo phuong trinh 7.20 ta e6: = 298.125 298.125 109 = 2.735 - Xe dinh Firs bing P=95%, a= 0.05; f) =N-L=8-6=2;f=m-—1=3- Tra phy luc A4 xac dinh duige Fo 9s(2,2) = 19.2 - Kiém dinh Do Fish = 2.735 < 19 = Feating do dé phutong trinh héi qui tim dug mé ta ding thye nghiém. Y= BLL.125 — 34,625x) + 63.125x2 — 75.625xix2 + 67.125x2x3 — 26.125x1x2x3. O) 56Le Dite Ngoe- Nhap mn st sé ligu vi BE hogeh ha the nghite 122011 9.3. Mé hinh hoa thy nghigm bac 1 rat gon Lam thye nghiém theo ma tran bac 1 day du thi sé thye nghigm qué lén khi n lén. Khi 46 phai tién hanh thye nghiém rit gon. 86 thye nghiém rit gon duge tinh theo céng thite: N=2"4 72 ‘Véi n 1a sé cdc nhén t6 khao sat va q la mite rit gon. _ C6 thé minh hoa ca s@ ciia vige rit gon sé thye nghigm la hinh hop 6 8 dinh, c6 thé gin diing thay hinh hop nay bing m6t hinh tir dign ni tiép trong 46 chi c6 4 dinh, tte Ia im 4 thye nghigm thay vi lam 8 thyc nghiém. Khi lam thye nghigm theo phyong phép nay s& cho ta ‘mé hinh c6 d6 gan ding thap hon so voi m6 hinh thye nghigm day di. x Hinh 7.2. So sdinh m6 hinh day dit va riit gon Lap ma tran rit gon theo eae nguyén tic sai = $6 ma tran cét tring voi sé nhan t6: n (nghia la khéng rat gon s6 nhin td, chi rit gon sé thi nghiém). = Ma tran ct géc tring véi sé ma tran (n - q) chuan. = $6 cdc sé hang chap (t8 hgp chap) duge suy ra tir biéw thite trong phan va biéu thive phat sink: * Bidu thite tuong phan: Vi dy: Xp.X2.%3 =t1 7.23 thire phat sinh: Vi dy: XX 724 vin =1 (véixi=41) Suy raz xoxs =X) xg = x 125 xm=t% Tir biéu thire twong phan va bigu thie phat sinh, ta sé xay dyng duge ma tran thye nghigm bac I rit gon, thoa man céc tinh chat eta ma tran thyc nghiém. 37{Le Date Ngpe- Nhdp mnt 6 liga vi ké hogeh hb tee nghitm- 12/2011 Bang 7.5. Bang ma trn thye nghigm rat gon 2°! (c6 3-1=2 ma tran cét gdc 1a x1 va x2, Ot x= + X1X2) N Xo xi % aserom | sexe L +1 “1 - 41 “1 2 +1 +1 ol - +1 3 +1 ol +1 - +1 4 +1 +1 +1 +1 1 Phuong trinh hdi qui ¢6 dang: ya bry +bx, +b,x, + bx, 7.26 Cac hé sé b;' suy bién, c6 chira cdc thanh phan b;' phat sinh. Céc phuong phép tinh, dénh gid phuong trinh hdi qui lam tong ty nhwr déi véi phuong trinh héi qui bac 1 diy di (dang 2") Vi dy 32: Nghién ctu qué trinh diéu ché ankylsunphonat so cdp trong néi hdp cd may khudy. Dung dich nude natri hidrosunfit ndng d6 36 ~ 38% va cdc Olephin - erdckinh phan doan 240 = 320°C trong céng nghiép 1a nhiing hod chat co ban. NaNO3 va oxy khong khi duge sir dung nnhur la chat kich thich cde géc ty do. Cac nhan t anh hung dén phan ling duge chon lam ede bign sé dc lap: 1/ thai gian phan ting, x1 gid; 2/ nhigt 46 phan img, x2 °C; 3/ ty 1@ phan tir gam cia natri hidrosunfit va olefin, xs; 4/ ty Ié khdi Iugng n-propanol va olefin, xs, 5/ ty Ié thé tich n-propanol va olefin, xs, viv. Ham myc tiéu y la higu suat ankylsuphonat tinh theo phan trim so vai ly thuyét. M6 hinh hod sit dung ma trén thee nghiém rit gon 2°? (bang 7.6). Ma tran the inghigm nay ¢6 dae diém: . + Séma tran c6t triing voi 5 nhan t6 = Matran ct géc triing véi ma tran (5-2 = 3) nhan t6 chudn = _Hé thite’ phat sinh ¢6 dang: x B, + Bu duge tim ra theo biéu thie WRXG} | XS=-XV Bang 7.6. Diéu in hanh thye nghiém va Ma tran thyc nghiém bac mét rit gon 2°, Tén x [foe [ow [os Mate gic |. 2.0 | 100 | 15 | 02 | 20 Khoang thay di [ 1.0 | 10 | 05 | o1 | 10 Thinghigm Ma tran ma hoa Ham muc tiéu y (%) xo [ee ee asa] xa | xs 1 a a fe fr] a [a 145 2 + [oa far aa 18.6 3 + fa fafa] af 13.8 4 + [a a a 51.0 5 + fa fap a fa fa 23.2 6 + Peaeseieaad | 41.0 7 + faery a a 38.0 8 + fo far pays [a 176LL Bite Ngoe- Nhip man x 36 lew va kéhoach ha thc nghigm 12.2011 : $35 2.814 theo ba thi nghiém 6 cling mot digu kign tai tm Cae buée git ____ Phuong phép tinh va dénh gié phuong trinh héi qui tuong ty nhu déi v hi qui bac 1 day du. Goi phuong trinh héi qui cé dang: y= bo + byxy + boxe + b3xs + axe + bsxs Y Bue 1. Xée dinh céic hé s6 hai qui by - Xéie dinh céc hé sé b; phuong tinh Ap dung céng thite 7.12, 8, (tir s6 1a phép todn tinh tong cla cde Khi gan dau cita c6t x; cho edt y twong tmg theo hang), ta c6: a 2h V1.5 118.6414 13.84 1065141423.2 4144138 41176 ‘ 8 8 = 27.2125 Pte 8 Tuong ty, xée dinh duge by =- 2.8625; by =- 0.8125; bu = 0.3875; bs = 11.0875; Y Buée 2. Dinh gid tinh cé nghta ciia he s6 hdi qui Tinh c6 nghia cia cdc hé sé hdi qui duge kiém djnh theo tigu chuan t: bil ttinh= Sb, (C1)x14.5+1x18.6 +...41<17.6 = 4.8375 Mer; i Trong 46 $3, = $2 hay 8, = i Gia thiét $2= 2.814. Do vay ta tién hinh céc bude sau: + Xée dinh Sy. Ap dung céng thite 7.15 ta c6: _ [sz _ [2814 t= Ven Nie = Xéc dinh ti inn, Ap dung cOng thite 7.14 ta Ss 0.593 (bi) _ 4.8375 afl =8.1 2 “in Tuong ty, = 0.65; ts = 18.7; - Xée dinh t tra bang 95%, f=m— 5914 Dit Ngge- Nhdp man i 8 lig i hago ha dye nghlém122011 ‘Tra bang 2 chiéu trong phy Ic A2 ta 06: to 95 (2) = 4.3 Nhu vay, t3 tang (P.£) 8.10 (Ns 36 tht mghit tp 8 ey 8.12 st-— Seo iS Fo. =D phuhor Aa Spruroo= HOE YOu In 8.16 Trong 6 qua thye nghiém thé u tinh theo phuong trinh hdi qui sau khi da logi bé nhag hé s6 L: s6 s6 hang cdn Iai sau khi da dénh gia tinh c6 nghia cia cée hé s6 hdi qui. 63Le Bi Ngoc- Nhdp man xir 6 itu vi ké hogch héa tue mghigm12/2011 Dé danh gid tinh phi hgp cua mé hinh, so sdnh Fynh VOi Fisng(Pofists) fi=N-L; — fy=No- 1 (No lsd thye nghiém lip 6 tam). Néu Funk 1 -N*= sé thyc nghigm trén mat myc tiu= Ngée + N* Khoang cach tir tam dén diém sao duge tinh theo cng thite: dea On 821 Tir cde diéu kién trén ta cé bang cdc gid tri tinh tréc: Bang 8.5. Cac gi tri d, diém tam tinh trudc khi biét logi mé hinh hod N 2 Nate Ne No d 2 z 4 4 5 144 3 2 8 6 6 1.682 4 2 16 8 7 2.000 5 2 32 10 10 2.378 5 Zi 16 10 6 2.000 Phuong trinh héi qui bac 2 tam xoay cé dang téng quat nhur sau: Y= bo%— + OX, + Dd, x,x, + bx? 8.22 ‘Va cdc hé sé hdi qui duge tinh theo cdc céng thire sau day: 4-Gd%,-G ey 8.23 B= OLX Wa : by = CD Xue 8.24 62Le Bate Nepe- Nid mon xj 8 liu va ké hogch hd the nghlém- 122011 CSx8y, +L Sx, -CD 8.25 Bang 8.6. Cac hé s6 C, duge tinh truée cho trong bang sau: nic oy C3 Ce Cs Ce 2 [02000 [0.1000 [0.1250 0.1250 [0.0188 | 0.1438 3 [01667 [0.0569 | 0.0731 0.0625 | 0.0069 _| 0.0695 4 [01428 [0.0357 | 0.0417 0.0312 [0.0037 | 0.0350 Danh gid tinh c6 nghia ciia cdc hé qui tim duge theo cdc bat ding thie va cong thie sau: ‘toh > thing (Pafi=No ~ 1) 8.26 trong 46 8.27 Sorry 5} HL ___ 8.28 N Cc phurong sai ciia cdc hé s6 hdi qui ciing 06 thé duge tinh theo cdc hé sé C; tude cho 6 bang trén nhur sa SR=CSs SR=CSG; Sh = ACSI; Sh, anh gid tinh phii hgp cia mé hinh tim duge théng qua phuong trinh hdi qui bac 2 tm xoay theo chudn F : 8.29 8.30 LO.-3.) -LOr-7"F ph f= No — 1: bac tyr do cia thye nghigm lap 6 tam, fk =N—L: bac ty do ciia sy sai khdc gitta li thuyét va thye nghiém. L: s6 hé sé c6 nghia trong phuong trinh hdi qui khdo sat tinh pha hop. Sou = Sa Sy =(N~ L]-(No —1): bac ty do cia phurong sai phi hop. N&u Fun < Fhing (Psfgtsfo) thi cho phép két lugn, m6 hinh tim duge hoan toan mé ta ding véi thye nghigm khao sét. Vi dy 34: Qué trinh két dinh cita cic chét nén dya trén sy chiét thuy ngdn tir dung dich mudi axit bing nhém kim loai. Nghién ciru dng hoc cua phan img hoa hoc nay anh huréng bai cae -yéu t6: nhigt 46 ca dung dich, °C (x1); t6c d6 chy ciia dung dich trong binh phan img, mL/L (G2); kh6i lurgng ciia nhOm, g (x3). Két qua cita qua trinh duge xac dinh bang ndng a6 eta thuy ngin trong dung dich sau khi tinh ché. Méi nhan té khéo sét & 2 mite. O vi du nay ta sé lap phwong trinh biéu dién sy phy thugc cia ndng 46 thuy ngan thu duge vo cée yéu t6 trén voi phuong dn thye nghiém bac hai tam xoay. Ta sé lam 8 thi nghiém géc, 6 thi nghiém & diém sao va 6 thi nghiém @ tam. Két qua thu duge nb sau: Toned: Sg a3 631 Dite Ngoe- Np men.at 1 sh lit vi Ké hogeh da thue mghitm- 12201 Bang 8.7. Diéu kign tién hanh thi nghiém . i Cie mize va Jada el xi 90 80 70 10 ae 1050 750 450 300 Xs 14.66 12.66 10.66 z "Bang 8.8, Ma tran bac hai tim xoay va k&t qua thi nghigm SIT xa) a % as y t+ : : =| 0a271 2f+[ + z = | 02761 ra [4 : + = | 0.7045 4 [+] + + = | 03855 ra5.a | ach : = + | 0.1034 lel+> + : + | 0.0956 C7 [= : + + | 0294 s{[+|[ + + +_| 0.108 [9 [+ | -1682 0 0 | 03464 [io [+ | 1682 0 0 | 0.0783 oa f+ 0 “1.682 0 | 00714 2 | + 0 1.682 0 | 03321 B+ |_0 0 =1.682_| 0.7048 “[+|_0 0 1.682_| 0.2094 we f+{ 0 0 0 | o.1224 ie {+ |_0 0 0 [0.1382 17 [vei |s 20 0 0 | 0.1204 i {+|_o 0 0 | 0.0943 wf] _o 0 0 | 0.0698 2 fs] o 0 0 [0.1135 MBé hinh toan hoe duege chon la VRB HD, FB Ha FB aM a, Ht, He HO AE HDT +B, a? Hwéng din M6 hinh thye nghigm bac hai tim xoay ba nhan t6 n=3, tra bang 8.6 ta co: N a Gr cy Ca Cs Cs. 3_ [0.1667 | 0.0569 | 0.0731 | 0.0625 | 0.0069 | 0.0695 ~ Buéc 1. Xée dinh cdc hé sé héi quy = Dé xac dinh cdc hé s6 cia phuong trinh hdi qui, trude tién xdc dinh cdc tong: Sy, =479512 Dit Ngpe-Nhfp mn i lif i hogch ha hye nghitr 122011 Duk Pa 5957 w Deter), Dx ws, = 0.2762 0.1838 4.9806 Dds ~ Xée dinh hé sé bo theo céng thie 8.23, ta cd: bOI ae 1.1667 x 4.795 — 0.0569 x (3.5957 + 3.53575 + 4.9806) = 0. w CDA 2.0255 | Sant, ~ Xie dinh hé s6 by, bs, bs theo e6ng thite 8.24: by =Cy >) x,,.%y = 0.073 1x (-1.1147) == 0.0815; Tuong ty: b: = 0.0752; bs =—0.148; - Xéc dinh hg s6 by theo céng thite 8.24: b, =2C, 7 x,,2 5,24 ba = by = 20,3 hat 0.0625 x (—0.3462) = ~ 0.043275; ‘Tuomg ty ta tinh urge: bys = — 0.022975; bis = 0.034525; x aw x ~ Xdc dinh hé s6 by; theo cOng thite 8.25: b,, =C,°x1,9,,+Cs > ta Ca Du +, = 0.0625 3.5957 + 0.0069(3.5957 +3.53575 + 4.9806) — 0.0569x 4.795 = 0.0355 Ta tinh durge by, = 0.0355 ; bra = 0.0317; b33 = 0.122; Y Buse 2. anh gid tinh e6 nghia cia hé sé hdi qui - Phuong sai tinh lap Iai tinh theo cdc thyc nghigm & tim, ap dung cdng thite 8.28 ta 6 Si=s Ly Lor-yy = Lot-y"y = 0.000586 = Cc phuong sai cila cdc hg s6 hdi qui cling c6 thé duge tinh theo cdc hé sé C; tinh true cho 6 bang trén, theo céc c6ng thite 8.29 ta tinh duge: Sy, = VCS; =9-884x107; S,, = V¥2C,S} =8.56x 107; = Theo cOng thite 8.27: tish = , ta tinh duge: t= 11.13; = 12.45; B= 115; =22.6; | S 2 =5.06, t= 403; t3=2.68; 4 =5.56; te =4.97; y= 19.12 68{Le Bite Ngoe- Nhap min at 6 iu vi kd hog hd thee nghitm 1222011 Tra bang phy lucA2: t9(0.95;5) = 2.57. Nhu vay t 6 tt cd cdc he s6 b déu 06 ¥ nghta, Phuong trinh hdi quy e6 dang: y=0.11-0.815x, + 0.0752x, —0.148x, ~0.043275x,x, + 0.034525x,x, ~0.022975x,x, +0.0355x; +0.317x} +0.122x} ¥ Buse 3, Banh gi tinh ©6 nghia cia phuromg trinh hai y $ O35 0.4271 0.4230 1,681x10° 0.2761 0.2773 1.44x10% 0.7045 0.7061 2.56x10% 0.3855 0.3872 2.89108 0.1034 0.1033 Ix10* 0.0956 0.0957, Ix10* 0.2940 0.2945 2.5x107 0.108 0.1137 3.25% 10° 0.3464 0.3485 441x10 0.0783 0.0739 1.94x10° 0.0714 0.0740 6.76x10% 0.3321 0.3272 24105 0.7048 0.7054 3.6x107 0.2094 0.2065 841x105 0.1224 0.1098 1.6x107 0.1382 0.1098 5.310% 0.1204 0.1098 1107 0.0943 0.1098 24x10" 0.0698 0.1098 1,.6*105 1135 0.1098 14x10 SS =so, 1,)? = 2.7738 10% SSy On - 5°)? = 0.002344, ‘Theo céng thite 8.31, tinh phurong sai phi hop: : SSy=SS,__ 0.0027738-0.002344 hop = 596 x 10° rmncr” N=L-N, +1 20-10-6+1 ~ Xéc dinh Fy, theo céng thire 8.30: Shntop _ 8.596% 107 S? 0.000586 V6i d6 tin c€y 95%, tra bang Foos(fisfi) = Faos(5:5) = 5.05. Do Finn < 1.88 Kat lugn: M6 hinh phat hgp 46i véi y, - + Tinh phi hgp cia yo : __1192« V7 © 620% J1+0.627 19 (0.95, f= 48)=2.01 < 6 Két lun : Mé hinh khdng phi hgp d6i vi yo. 70LE Dite Ngoc: Nhp-mén sé 26 lu vi KE hogch hoa the nghim-12/201 1 PHAN IV TOI UU HOA THYC NGHIEM 10.1. Khai nigm va phan loai cdc phwong php t6i wu hoa C6 4 phuong phap tim diéu kign téi wu chinh: _- Phuong phap mo digu kign t6i uu bing céch lan Iuot khéo sét timg nhén t6 anh huéng Jen két qua thi nghiém trong khi ¢é dinh cdc nhan t6 khac (hinh ai). - Phuong phdp thyc nghiém theo duémg déc nhat, durong ciia vector grad y(x) (hinh b/). - Phurong php khao sit mat mye tigu (hinh e/). - Phuong phép the nghiém theo don hinh (hinh d/). 4 Phuong phip mo by Paumgphép tare nghitm theo doing Ea ©’ Phuong phap don hin & Phuong php Kio sit mst muc itu Hinh 10.1. Minh hoa cde phuong phap t6i wu hod 10.2. Phuong phap thye nghiém theo dwéng déc nhat Duong déc nhat la dudng chuyén theo vecto grad y(x), vecto nay thién nhanh nbdt cia y(x) vé phia ewe tri. Thye chat cua vige thye nghigm theo duéng déc nhét dé tim didu kign t6i wu thye nghigm ta tim céc khoang bién thién moi 2,¢, 2j* tong img cia cde nhan t6 xi, x). 18 VOi nnhau theo mat ty s6 xée dinh, dé dich chuyén dng thoi céc digu kign thé nghigm vé phia eye tri. iu thi sy bién Cé thé mé ta qui hoach thyc nghiém theo duéng déc nhat bang bang sau day: 7Le Bite Ngoe- Nhip man xi i 6 liu va ké hogch hd the nghlém-122011 Bang 10.1. Ma tran thy nghigm theo dudmg déc nhat Stt x % % a= [ma ly 1_| Mite gée 0 lo: 05 aN, | 2 | Heséb, bbe bs = [Be 3. | Khoang bién thién ay da as a | An e] 4 [oa [bar [tte | bata bidn | 3 | a te a de Le dA, max 6 | Lam tron a than g* | a ae ast Pat 7. [hye nebigm the Theo A? [OA [Osttaa® [Ostaat [o [OstIAe | yee 8 | Thye nghigm thi? theo ay [O,+2Ai* | Opt2a3" | Ost2A3" |. [Ont2Aqr | yz* 9 | Thyc nghiém thir 3 theo 4,' | 0;+34)* | O2+322" | 054323" eS Ont3An* | ys* | . fe [| k | Thyc nghigm thirk theo A) | OrtkAi* | Ortkaa* | Ostkas* |. | Ontkaa* | ye m_| Thye nghigm thir m theo 2," Ostmas* Ontman* | ¥m* Ghi ch ~ Mic géc 0; la mite ding dé m6 hinh hod thye nghiém thu duge ham muc tiéu y(x) phi hop. ~ Hé s6 b; la hé s6 ciia phuong trinh hdi qui phi hop. - Khoang bién thin 2 la khoang bién thién da ding dé m6 hinh hoa thye nghiém cho him rmuc tiéu phi hop ~ Lam tron 2" thanh 2..* la phép lam trn s6 hoe. (Thi dy: 0.3 thanh 0.5; 0.8 thinh 1.0) ~ A* ly ddu ca cia hé sé b; tong img. = 0,+ iAy* la cOng dai s6, néu 4\* <0 thi lm gidm mac géc, néu 2;* > O thi lam ting mie abc Gia thiét y,* la gia trj thye nghiém thu duge cyc tri, khi dé diéu kign thyc nghiém dé thu duge y,* la diéu kign tdi uu thye nghiém. Vi du 36: Nghién cita sy bién tinh eta nhdm nguyén chat bing m6 lip den. Thong s6 t5i wu hoa y duge chon la sé hat nhém trén bé mat lem”. ‘Cac nhan t6 anh huéng dén thong sé t6i wu héa la: 1/ x1: hrgng mé lip den dua vao nhém, tinh bang %; 2/ xp: nhiét 46 nung néng, °C 3/ x3: thi gian nung néng, phiit; 41 x4: téc d@ lam tanh (a), ‘Trong dé x1, x2, x3 la nhing yéu té dinh Iuong, x; la yéu t6 dinh tinh, ¢6 hai lam lanh nhanh (lim lanh bing dé graphit), lam lanh chém (lam lanh bing gach chiu hia). M6 hinh duge chon la mé hinh thyc nghiém bac | rit gon la loai 2*~' phuong trinh hdi qui thu duge cé dang: = by + Dix, + bax +baxs + boxe ‘Voi biéu thite sinh x4 = x1x2x. Cac thi nghiém khéng Lim lap lai. nmLE Dite Ngoc: Nip mén xt sb gu ni Ké hog héa thee nghigm-12/201 1 Bang 10.2. Cc mite cia cde nhan t6 duge cho & bing sau Cac mite Clic nhan té, x % 6 x Neghigm gbc 04 840 60 : Khoang bién thién 0.15 100 60 : Mite trén (+) 0.55 940. 120 ‘Da graphit Mite dudi (-) 0.25 740 0 Gach chiu lira Bang 10.3. Ma trén quy hoach thi nghiém st | 0 xi 4 % M y 1 * + * + + 100 2 + - + - : 81 3 + +. = * - 95 a + = a + + 36 5 + + + - : 130 6 a z + 3 + G) 7 + + i : + 90 8 + : : * E 64 ‘Dé xdc dinh phuong sai lgp phai [am thém 3 thi sm & tm phuong An. Cac két qua nhan duge y,” (u= 1, 2, 3) va cdc tinh toan y” va (y,2 - ¥°) due cho & bang 10.4 sau : Bang 10.4. Bang két qua va céch tinh phuong sai lap str] ye y-¥ | o-yP 1 | 80 0 0 3 02 2 | 82 2 4 Lor air’ 3 | 7 2 4 Phuong sai lap Igi, chinh la sai s6 the nghiém: Cac hé sé trong mé hinh duge tinh theo céng thire: yy N bo= 83.125; bj = 20.625; by = 11.875; by =-5.125; Kiém dinh tinh nghia ciia céc hé s6 hoi qui, sir dung chuan t yb, Tird6 tinh duge:t;=29.1; 2=16.8; t3=7.25; t= 13.26; y= 117.5 ‘Tra bang t, (f) vai p= 0.95; f=No-1=2; t (1) =4.30. Cae tj > ty (f) voi j = (0.1, 2, 3, 4) do dé cde hé sé hdi quy déu cé ¥ nghia va phuong trinh hdi quy ¢6 dang: 3.125 + 20.625x + 11.875x2 - 5.125xs - 9.375x. 3Lé Dite Ngpc- Nhdp mén xt 6 ligu vi ké hoach héa thec nghigm12/2011 Tit mé hinh toan hoe ta thay ring mudn ting gid trj cua théng sé tdi wu hda can ting gid tri ctia cdc nhén td x) va x2 va gidm gid tri cia cdc nhdn t6 x3 va xs. _ _Kiém dinh sy tuong thich cla mé hinh véi thye nghiém duge thye hign theo tiéu chuan Fisher. Bang 10.5. Céc sé ligu ding dé tinh S%, stmt | oy | oi | vee | Oo Fo% I 100 | 101.1 cll 121 ao 81 78.6 24 5.76 3 [95 | 961 | ta 121 4 36 36.1 0.1 0.01 y=16.4 a 130 | 130.1 0.1 0.01 a 6 69 70.1 ld 121 7 90 87.6 24 5.76 8 64 65.1 -ld 121 164 Ste NE “88 Senter 347 _1 3675 So 4 ‘Tra bang phy lye A3: Fy -p (fi, fi); p= 0.95; f= 3; = 2 duge: Fy.» (3, 2)= 19.2 Foon 0 06 cue tiéu & tam. Gid tri eye tri nim trén bién cia mién nghién eitu, Tam cua mat nm gan tam thye nghigm. Hinh 10.2 2. Khi cée B\ va By khac déu nhau, ta ¢6 m&t Paraboloit hyperbolic. Tém cua mat gin tam thyc nghigm. Digm S - Tam cia mat duge goi ld diém yén ngua (minimax). Chon tryc nio dé nnghién itu Li tuy bai toan khdo sét, Cure dai nim trén true c Bi; > 0. Cye tiéu nim trén truc £6 By > 0. QQ Hinh 10.312 De Ngoc: Nhdp min i a6 lit i kd hogch ha thee nghitr 122011 3. Khi mét hoae mét sé Bj rét nhé, gin bing khng thi tam nim xa mién thye nghiém. ” Hinh 10.4 4, Cé trudng hgp suy bién, mat myc tiéu ld nhiing duémg hoe mat song song. y x XK 7 X Xi Hinh 10.5 Vi du 37: Chuyén phuong trinh bac hai sau day vé dang chinh tie: Y=10 = 15x) = 10x, + 4x12 + 6x? + 2x2" Tinh: B15 44x, 12%, &, BP 21044, +4x, =0 a, 2 a= 8-16 =32 4 4 #0 do dé mat myc tu 06 tam. Tim toa d9 x15 V6i x25 cla tm s Is 4) 10 4_20_5 Is x or Xe a “32-328 8 ‘Thay gié tri cia xis va x25 vao phwong trinh trén ta tinh duge Ys: 5 154 515 sy 1sy 10-15-3-10-3 44.3.8 46 (3) +28) Sau khi tinh tién hé true tga 49, phurong trinh trén ¢6 dang: ¥ =-4.0625+ 45,5, +657 +257 Dé xae dinh céc hé s6 B),, Bz ta giai hé phuong trinh dae trung sau: 7 7 .0625Le ite Ngoe- Np min sé 6 liu va ké hogch ha thee nghitm- 12/2011 SB by, -B| Sau khi thay cdc gié tri cla by1, bi2, bai va ba» vo phurong trinh dc trug ta c6: l-a 1.4 2 |= B-8B+8=0 Lg 2-2 2 Giai phuong trinh trén ta nhan duge: By = 6.8284; Bn Cé thé kiém tra sy ding dan trong tinh toan bing cach so sinh: Zby = ZBy ‘va phuong trinh chinh tic c6 dang: Y + 4.0625 = 6.8284X,? + 1.1716X2? Sau khi xée dinh duge céc hé s6 By ta xéc dinh duge dang cla mat dp tng theo cach phan logi cde dang ham myc tiéu da trinh bay & phan trén, 10.4, Phong phap thye nghiém theo don hinh ._ Trong kh6ng gian nhan té n chiéu, don hinh la mt hinh [di c6 n+1 dinh, mdi dinh la mOt to hop n diéu kign tng véi n nhén t6 anh hudng lén két qua thye nghigm. Phuong phdp thye nghigm theo don hinh dé tim diéu kign t6i wu cho thi nghiém duge tién hanh theo céc bude sau day: 1. Lap dom hinh So. Don hinh Sp - Don hinh géc - lip duge tuy theo vj tri trong 44i trong khong gian nhan 16. Phé bign nhat 13 2 vj tri: 1716 Pa Vitri Vitri 2/ 1/ Dat | trong cdc dinh trang vi géc hé truc toa dd, ( vi tri 1) 2/ Dat tam cia don hinh triing véi g6c truc tog a6 ( vi tri 2/) <14+ vn) 10.14 1 PS waka ! 10.15 (Jn+T-1) m2 Trong dé n 1a s6 nhan t6, i la vecto nhan t6 thir i. 8{Le ite Ngoe- Nip man x sb leu vi ké hogeh héa tae mghiin 12/2011 Bang 10.7. Bang ma tran tuong img theo vi tri 1 Dinh 1 [pet 3 n 1 0 0 0 0 2 Pp | 4 4 | a | 3 4 | q 4 : I P | nl q q q Ls Pp Bang 10.8. Bang gid tri p,q twong tmg véi sé nhan t6n a] 2 3 4 5 6 a & lp | 0.9659 | 0.9428 | 0.9256 | 0.9124 | 0.9011 | 0.8918 | 0.8839 [a | 0.2588 | 0.2357 | 02185 | 0.2050 | 0.1940 | 0.1847 | 0.1768 Bing 10.9, Bang ma tran tuong ting theo vi tri 2 Dinh 1 2 3 ic a 1 on oh 5 2 Ri on “5 A : Ry a [att 0 0 2. Lap qui hoach thee nghiém theo don hinh Sp va thye hign thyc nghiém: Quan hé gita céc gid tri ma hod véi gia tr thye hign the nghigm biéu din theo c6ng thite: 10.16 3. Lép dom hinh S). Don hinh S; la don hinh So 4% bé di dinh cho gia tri ham myc tiéu khong mong mudn nhat trong cdc dinh cita Sp (nh nhat trong truéng hgp tim diéu kign cye dai, thay vao 6 1a dinh méi, d6i xing véi dinh cit qua céc dinh cdn lai. Cong thite dé tinh toa 49 dinh méi nh “ rina 2(Sis, au 10.17 na (Xi 18 toa d6 trén vecto ciia 3 dinh géc; x = la toa d6 trén vecto nhan t6 i ciia dinh bé di) 4, Lép dom hink 8, Cain ci vao két qué thye nghiém theo céc dinh ciia don hinh S,, ta lép don hinh S> tir don hinh S; bang céch b6 di dinh cho gié tri ham muc tiéu nhé nhat trong céc dinh cia S) va thay vao dé la dinh méi, d6i ximg véi dinh et) qua cée dinh con lai. 5. Tim diéu kién thee nghiém t6i wu. 9Le Bite Ngoe: Nip mn xe 8 liu vi hoach hia the nghiéme 12/2011 ‘Thyc hign lién tiép cic don hinh So, S1, S2, Sk, khi ede don hinh xoay quanh 1 dinh thi dinh d6 la t6 hop cée diéu kign thye nghiém t6i wu. Vi dy 38: T6i wu hoa theo phuong phap don hinh. 1-Néu chon don hinh Sp theo hé toa dé sau: 1 “0578 Bang 10.11, Bang ma tran cia So nhu sau (tinh 2 nan t): Dinh xi x 1 05 0.289 2 =0.5 0.289 3 0 = 0.578 (Cha. 2. Bai todn: Khao sat diéu kign t6i wu dé cung cép Oxy cho ndi lén men phy thudc vao téc 46, khudy V(x;) (vong/phit) va chiéu séu cia canh khudy ngfp vao dung dich (xem hinh bén) h(x) (em) ca ham muc tiéu y (lung Oxy hoa tan). tinh 3 nguge véi So trong phan ly thuyét nén_r, va -R; vou) - Dig kign goc Bing 10.12 V(x) (vong/phiit) | _h Ga) (am) ‘Mie géc 130 a a 10 2 hes) - Ma hod: Can cir vao gid tri ciia x; va xp trong ma train So dé tim ra cdc gid tri thy cdn Lam thi nghigm tai cdc dinh ciia So : eit tinhra: Vi =135 Vong phat. nt hy = 7.57 em 80Lz Dite Ngpe- Nhap man xt sd leu vik hogeh ha thc mghlim-12/201 1 ¥,,-130 nt 125 Vong / phat nt hy = 7.58em nt Vis= 130 Vong / phit nt has =5.84em = Cach tinh dinh méi : Thi dy [135 +125 +130-125]-125 =140 S[ps8+758+5.04-7, 58]-7.58 =5.84 = Két qua thyc nghiém duge ghi Iai trong bang sau: Bang 10.13 Dinh Vox) h(x) Y 1 135 758 2.52 So 2 125 758 1.43 3 130 5.84 171 s | 4 140 5.84 1.92 S 5 145 758 2.94 Ss 6 140 931 3.16 Ss 1 150 931 3.45 Ss 8 145 11.04 3.80 Ss 9 155 11.04 435 S 10 150 12.77 455 Ss "1 160 12.77 447 Ss 2 155 14.50 4.50 Sta 13 145 14.50 4.10 Su 4 140 12.77 439 han xét: Qua bang trén thdy ring 6 dinh S7cé két qua ham muc tiéu y dat gid tri lon nhat, 81Le Dit Ngoe- Nhgp mn xir sé lidu vi kb hoach ha thee nghigne 12/2011 100 110 120 130 140 150 Valeo 170 Hinh 10.7. Dich chuyén ving tdi uu bing phuong phap don hinh Nhan xét: Thdy ring tét ca cde dinh xoay quan dinh S>. C6 nghia la vige tim ving phan tich ma trong 6 c6 digu kign phan tich t6i uu theo quan diém cye dai cia ham myc tiéu da két thie. Toa d9 cia dinh S; chinh 1a digu kign t6i wu cua thi nghiém. 821A Bite Nee: Nhap min xi 36 lgu vi kd hogch ha thee nghifn 12/2011 Table At Cumulative Normal Probability (2) = Pr [Z fl est GS) LOL GLE HHL ze SEL Gt wor Oz Lz szz “ez eSz Mz SHE oor | 09 1St FOL Gor LL wet ZL Oz HOT OZ zz wz s2z wer SHZ LOZ vez Eze Gov | OF gt Lt ver OBL 18 oz ez LIZ Oee sez see Lee OP UST ELZ Oe SEE Izv] wel S61 Gt 9% wT oLe azz LEZ SEZ GC GHZ Isz Oo WZ wz Oe Bre sev | OZ soz o% Oe Lz eZ Oe wz IST wz Ese HZ WZ BLz OBZ OE BE OE rSy| SF ore ez ewe Be wz ze GOT ZZ GLz OBL sez i6z oOe We OE Gre BRE SL | Zt WZ G2 sz 89z soz WZ Gz wT sez Bz GS6Z LOE BOE OE gee Ose BBE vey | bE we wz WZ WZ UZ GBe 18Z vez OBZ ZL LOL HE ee Ce BE ILE OLY OB | OF Wz @Le ez sz wer Oe Loe Oe He Be ere GZE LOE BE Coe OBE sry a's] 6 GZ WE we HE SE ewe ae ee Gre ore we ose se ave wee LOY gy zes| 8 Ze OE HE OEE HE I9e USE Ope WE ee ELE BLE Uwe Lee ZY sey wr Oss] L ue WE WE WE LE HE OOF OY OOF OIY Sly Izy ery Gey eoy Oy ws 66s] 9 iy ory ory Ish OF wy wr Oh wy Ly zy Ber soy SDS G's ws es 190] § 95 69s ws OS OBS gS 165 MES 96S COD wd Goo S19 Bro oro OO wo WL] ¥ ee use ese e989 oof OY we Oe Ge ee see see vee 106 ze ae ose cro] f 0561 SF6l Lvl OF! GHG EY6I IyGI OPGL OFGL BEE! LEE SEL CrGL OFGL SzEL O16 OOG Ise! Z woz 28 1SZOGE HEHE: CWC: CwEZSCdeZ:SCw:SCe:SCSA:SsZ’:Cwwt sth | zp oo ow kw @ 8 ww Ww oO 6 @ £ 8 S ¥ © @ + MP JoyesawuNU a4 UI WOpe—ad) Jo sea1bep LP YUM 4 JO SanjeA S0°0 40 Ayiqeqosd jey-19ddn, 2nj6 0} JoyeujWoUap a4} Uj Wopaady Jo saasGap zp pue uonnqinsia-y ‘by a1qeL88 tL upL GGL wZt SBF wOZ BLE zeZ tye iSZ vOT ORE coe cee Be oF YOR! = OoL POL MEL LOZ OZZ SCZ oSz COZ WT WL Ger ZC vEe SOE EL By BOL | OB oot zoz bz vez Lez wz oo OFT GET GOT ee Gre Ise coe ey ers icz| oF ore ez gcz isz Oz az Bz Oe SIC gzE BEE BOE BLE Ly Ooy Grs sou | Lz wz 1Gz eZ iz vez GOe CZEe LOE OPE OSE OLE LHe Ore Evy ver sas oLe| OZ wz SOE CLE SZE Zee ZSE LOE ORE GEE COP Pip Zev 9S¥ GBP zs sco BoB] St Dee #9 ZOE SLE O'S LOY Oly Oc Bc OS YOR ZY GOS Lys SES coo CCG | zt lee GF 4bv ety Ihr OFF ZY SEY YOR GOS ors oes v99 Gos sev 992 Cor | OV ley arr ssh Bor IBy eoy ILS eS SES us 199 99 woo cro eso coe vor| 6 eer CoS ZS ezS OFS zs LOS 18S les COO B10 Leo E99 LOZ ass Sos ELL] B sos zs 16S CO9 S19 Leo “wo z99 WS Peo B89 GIL SPL SEL sre Sse Zz] 4 a9 90% FIL Le OPL OSL ZL LHL BOL OLB Sze LHe SLB SL 916 GOI LeL| 9 zo O26 66 zZPe B96 zZO GBS FOF TOF COL SOL LOL OLL HLL Fer cer co] Ss Set LeL ZeL Bet Obl Ze wet SbL Zyl gel OSL ZSL Sot OO LoL OM ZZ] v voz 88x vez sez LOZ Sor LUZ TAZ Cuz Suz L1z BLt Ter Ler sez goe ive] & S86 S66 S66 S66 Y66 PEs HES WES FES HES YES C66 E66 EGG zZEs O66 ses] z 999 C1ED 9829 GFZO GOZO LILO LOLe os0B zzZ0B LBs GZES ESPs PaLG vzO5 OVS ser zor] +t wp = 09 oye Lo'0 40 Aamiqeqoid werseddn 2016 02 JoreujuioUep ey UW] WOPeed} jo seesGep Zyp pur soIes9WNU a4 UY WOPEas) Jo saaIBap Lyp yRIAA 4 40 SaN|EA Aungeqod yer soddn (penunues) uornqiasia-z :by e1geL Hoe riya 20 90H HoH 74 2 aTable for determining needed sizes of a randomly chosen sample from a given finite population of ceases such that the sample proportion p will be within +, 05 of the population proportion p with a percent level of confidence N Ss N Ss N s 10 10 220 140 1200 291 15 4 230 144 1300 297 20 19 240 148 1400 302 25 24 250 182 1500 306 30 28 260 135 1600 310 #8 32 270 159 1700 313 40 36 280 162 1800 317 45 40 290 165 1900 320 50 44 300 169 2000 322 55 48 320 175 2200 327 60 52 340 181 2400, 331 65 56 360 186 2600 335 0 59 380 191 2800 338 18 63 400, 196 3000 ML j 80 66 420 201 3500 ue | 85 0 440 205 4000 st | 90 B 460 210 4500 354 95 76: 480 214 5000 357 100 80 500 217 6000 361 110 86 ‘550 226 7000, 364 120 92 600 234 8000, 367 650 242 9000 368, 700 248 10000 370 750 (254 15000, 375 800 260 20000, 377 850 265 30000, 379 900 269 40000 380 950 274 0000 381 1000 278 73000 383 1100 285 100000 384 is sample size.

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