Arbol de Decisiones

For Evaluation Only
Desempeo de ventas
promedio
cmaras
20 000
equipo de c 30 000
aparatos elec25 000
Tienda
TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

file:///var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_5/263404301.xlsxwww.TreePlan.com
For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only
Desempeo de ventas
bueno
excelente
75 000
100 000
60 000
100 000
75 000
150 000
0.2
Promedio
20000
0.6
Cmaras
Bueno
69000
75000
0.2
Excelente
100000
0.15
Promedio
30000
0.7
Bueno
Equipo de cmputo
3
98750
61500
60000
0.15
Excelente
100000
0.05
Promedio
25000
0.6
Aparatos Electrnicos
Bueno

For Evaluation Only

0
98750
75000
0.35
Excelente
150000

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only
www.TreePlan.com
4000
4000
45000
D.
45000
20000
20000
4500
4500
42000
D.
42000
15000
15000
1250
1250
45000
For Evaluation Only

45000
52500
D.
52500

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

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For Evaluation Only

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For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

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For Evaluation Only

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For Evaluation Only

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For Evaluation Only

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ID
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

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For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only
Name
TreePlan
Value
Prob
0
Pred
0
0
0
0
Kind
0D
0E
0E
0E
1T
1T
1T
2T
2T
2T
3T
3T
3T
NS
3
3
3
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

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For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
Row
1
4
7
2
5
8
3
6
9
0
0
0
0
0
0
22
7
22
10
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
11
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
12
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
37
2
7
12
17
22
27
32
37
42

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only
Col
Mark
1
5
5
5
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9

For Evaluation Only

SI SE QUEDA
Si cambia su negocio, su venta:
Baja
20% Remodelacin
estable
30% No remodelan
Aumenta
50%
70%
30%
MEJOR OPCIN:

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only
0.2
BAJA
-100000
Cambia su negocio
67500
-20000
0.3
ESTABLE
0
0.5
AUMENTA
2
175000
87500
125000
0.7
REMODELACIN
Se queda
200000
125000
140000
0.3
NO HAY REMODELACIN
-50000
-15000

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only
-20000
87500
140000
-15000

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

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For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

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For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

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For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only
ID
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only
Name
TreePlan
Value
Prob
0
Pred
0
0
0
Kind
0D
0E
0E
1T
1T
1T
2T
2T
NS
2
3
2
0
0
0
0
0

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
Row
1
3
6
2
4
7
0
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
13
7
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
7
12
17
22

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only
Col
Mark
1
5
5
9
9
9
9
9

For Evaluation Only
VENDER
DESARROLLAR PRODUCTO
XITO
FRACASO
50%
50%
1
20000
MEJOR OPCIN SERA VENDER

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

1
VENDER
20000
20000
20000
vender el producto
0.5
XITO
1
59000
comercializar
DESARROLLAR PRODUCTO
2000
0.5
FRACASO
5000
2500

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only
20000
0.4
oferta
80000
vender el producto
59000
80000
80000
0.6
oferta
45000
45000
45000
0.3
ingreso
3000
10000
3000
0.5
ingreso
comercializar
25000
58000
50000
25000
0.2
ingreso
30000
150000
30000
2500
For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

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For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

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For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

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For Evaluation Only

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For Evaluation Only

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For Evaluation Only

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ID
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only
Name
TreePlan
Value
Prob
0
Pred
0
0
0
0
0
Kind
0D
0E
0E
1T
2D
2T
4E
4E
6T
6T
7T
7T
7T
NS
2
1
2
0
2
0
2
3
0
0
0
0
0

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
Row
1
3
4
2
0
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
12
2
23
0
6
0
8
10
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
9
11
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
12
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
15
32
9
22
7
12
17
22
27

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only
Col
Mark
1
5
5
9
9
9
13
13
17
17
17
17
17

For Evaluation Only

EJERCICIO
14
VENDERLA
400000
400000
1
400000
RENOVAR Y VENDER
REPARAR ROMPEOLAS
0
200000

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

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For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only
VENDERSE INMEDIATAMENTE
800000
800000
FUNCIONE
CONTRATAR EMPRESA
800000
300000
OPERAR EL CLUB
0
OPERAR LA PROPIEDAD
NO FUNCIONE
300000

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

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For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only
400000
800000
ONTRATAR EMPRESA
300000
300000
0.1
DEMANDA ALTA
130000
1300000
130000
0.5
PERAR LA PROPIEDAD
DEMANDA MEDIA
550000
1040000
1100000
550000
0.4
DEMANDA BAJA
360000
900000
360000
300000
For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

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For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only
ID
Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only
Value
Prob
0
Pred
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Kind
0D
0T
0E
2D
3E
3T
4T
4D
7T
7E
9T
9T
9T
NS
S1
2
0
1
1
0
3
2
2
0
0
2
0
3
0
0
0
4
6
0
0
8
0
10
0
0
0

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only
S2
S3
S4
S5
Row
Col
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
12
2
22
1
5
5
5
7
0
0
9
0
11
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
12
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
22
12
32
7
17
12
22
17
22
27
9
13
13
17
17
21
21
25
25
25

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only
Mark
1

For Evaluation Only

EJERCICIO
15
VENTAS ALTAS
INTRODUCIR
4000000
2000000
VENTAS BAJAS
-2000000
XITO
1
2000000
PRUEBA
FRACASO
341998.658

For Evaluation Only
NO CONCLUYENTES
NO INTRODUCIR
-0.2

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only
VENTAS ALTAS
4000000
VENTAS BAJAS
-2000000
0.09
VENTAS ALTAS
INTRODUCIR
3800000
341999.692
3800000
0.14
VENTAS BAJAS
-2.2
-2.2
341999.492
NO INTRODUCIR
-0.2
-0.2
0.06
VENTAS ALTAS
INTRODUCE
3.8
-0.234
3.8
0.21
VENTAS BAJAS
-2.2
-2.2
-0.434
NO SE INTRODUCE
-0.2

For Evaluation Only

0.15
VENTAS ALTAS
INTRODUCE
0
3.8
-0.2
3.8
0.35
VENTAS BAJAS
NO CONCLUYENTES
0
-2.2
-2.2
-0.4
NO SE INTRODUCE
-0.2

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only
4000000
-2000000
3800000
-2.2
3.8
-2.2

For Evaluation Only
3.8
-2.2

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

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For Evaluation Only

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For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

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For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

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For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

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For Evaluation Only

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For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

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For Evaluation Only

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For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

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For Evaluation Only

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For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only
ID
Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
Value
Prob
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only
Pred
Kind
0D
0E
0E
0E
1T
1T
2D
2D
2D
6E
6E
9T
9T
7E
7E
13 T
13 T
14 T
8E
8E
19 T
18 T
18 T
3T
10 T
NS
S1
S2
S3
3
2
3
1
4
6
2
5
7
3
0
8
1
0
0
2
2
2
2
1
0
0
2
1
0
0
0
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
23
0
0
9
13
18
11
24
0
0
15
17
0
0
0
21
20
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
10
14
19
12
0
0
0
16
0
0
0
0
22
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only
S4
S5
Row
Col
Mark
0
0
0
0
0
0
30
4
33
1
5
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
57
2
7
18
33
48
14
22
12
17
29
37
27
32
37
44
52
52
42
47
57
22
5
9
9
9
9
9
13
13
17
17
13
13
17
17
17
13
13
17
17
17
9
17

For Evaluation Only
aceptar la oferta
25000
25000
0.2
retire la oferta
0
1
25000
0.6
que no cambie la oferta
gane el juicio
25000
25000
rechazar la oferta
0
22000
0.2
aumenta la oferta
1
35000
35000

For Evaluation Only
R= rechaza la oferta y se va a juicio

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only
25000
0.5
aceptar la oferta
25000
25000
0.4
le den la razon al medico
gane el juicio
15000
-10000
0.5
ir ajuicio
15000
0.5
el dictamen salga a su favor
50000
25000
0.1
125000
100000
Aceptar la oferta
35000
0
35000
0.4
le den la razon al medico
25000
-10000
25000
0.5
ir a juicio
0
14500
que el dictamen salga a su favor

60000
25000
0
0.1
gane el juicio
45000

For Evaluation Only

10000
45000

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

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For Evaluation Only

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ID
Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
Value
Prob
0
0
0
0
3
4
5
6
7

For Evaluation Only

8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
0
0

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

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For Evaluation Only
Pred
Kind
0D
0T
0E
2T
2E
2D
4T
4E
NS
S1
S2
S3
2
0
3
1
0
3
2
0
4
0
0
5
0
2
2
0
3
0
6
11
0
8
0
7
12
0
9
0
0
0
0
10

For Evaluation Only

7T
7T
7T
5T
5E
12 T
12 T
12 T
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
14
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
15
0
0
0

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

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For Evaluation Only

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For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only
S4
S5
Row
Col
Mark
0
0
0
0
0
0
12
2
22
1
5
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
17
37
12
22
9
9
9
13
13

For Evaluation Only

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
17
22
27
32
42
37
42
47
17
17
17
13
13
17
17
17

For Evaluation Only

0.3
baje
9
0.3
permanezca
comprar maana
100
109
110.1
10
110
0.4
suba
11
111
1
110.1
0.2
baje
9
comprar pasado maana

100
43.8
109
0.2
sin cambio
10
110
0.6
suba
0.6
aplazar la compra hasta pasado maana

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

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109
110
111
109
110
100.6

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ID
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

For Evaluation Only

8

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

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For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

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For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only
Name
TreePlan
Value
Prob
0
Pred
0
0
0
Kind
0D
0E
0E
1T
1T
1T
2T
2T
NS
2
3
3
0
0
0
0
0

For Evaluation Only

2T

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
Row
1
3
6
2
4
7
0
5
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
14
7
22
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
7
12
17
22

For Evaluation Only

0
27

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only
Col
Mark
1
5
5
9
9
9
9
9

For Evaluation Only

9

For Evaluation Only
18. B&C S.A. tinene la posibilidad de construir dos tipos de planas industriales, una mediana (d1) y
grande (d2). En ambos casos se tiene la posibilidad de una alta aceptacin (S1) y de una baja
aceptacin (S2). Los resultados para esta situacin de la empresa se muestra en la siguiente tabl
millones de dlares:
10
0.7
S1
S
MEDIANA (d1)
S2
0.3
7
1
25
0.7
GRANDE (d2)
S1
S2
0.3
-4

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only
dustriales, una mediana (d1) y una

aceptacin (S1) y de una baja
e muestra en la siguiente tabla en
P(F/S1)
0.85
9.1
P(U/S1)
0.15
d1=
P(F/S2)
0.4
P(U/S2)
0.6
P(F/S1)
0.85
9.1
9.1
16.3
P(U/S1)
0.15
d2=
P(F/S2)
16.3
0.4
16.3
P(U/S2)
0.6

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

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18.2
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60
0.3
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80
0.3
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100
3 LOTES
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60
0.3
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80
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0.4
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30
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para un producto estacional, para el cual la demanda puede llegar alta, media o baja. El comprador
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lares) se muestran a continuacin:
82 EXCELENTE
70 MUY BUENA
28
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S5
Row
0
0
0
Col
4
2
7
Mark
1
5
5

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20.
Gorman Manufacturing Company debe decidir si fabrica un componente en su pla
compra el componente con un proveedor. La ganancia resultante depende de la demand
para el producto. La siguiente matriz de pagos muestra la ganancia proyectada (en mile
de dlares).
Alternativa de decisin
Dem
Dema
Demanda alta
Fabricar
### 40
100
Comprar ### 45
70
Las probabilidades del estado de la naturaleza son: P (demanda baja) = 0,35; P(demanda media)
P(demanda alta) = 0,30. Se espera que el estudio de mercado de la demanda potencial para
producto reporte, ya sea una condicin favorable (F) o desfavorable (U). Las
probabilidades condicionales relevantes son como siguen:
P(F/demanda baja 0,10
P(F/demanda media)0,40
P(F/demanda alta) 0,60
P(F/demanda baja 0,90

P(F/demanda media)0,60
P(F/demanda alta) 0,40
Cul es la estrategia de decisin ptima de Gorman? Sustente.
TreePlan Trial Version, For Evaluation Only

0.35
Demanda baja
-20
0.35
Demanda media
Fabricar
0
37
40

For Evaluation Only
0.3
Demanda alta
100
2
40.25
0.35
Demanda baja
10
0.35
Demanda media
Comprar
0
40.25
45
0.3
Demanda alta
70

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rica un componente en su planta, o

ltante depende de la demanda
ganancia proyectada (en miles
= 0,35; P(demanda media) = 0,35 y

de la demanda potencial para el
avorable (U). Las
da baja)
0.1
F
www.TreePlan.com
-20
manda baja
0
-20
-20
0.9
U
-20
0
-20
0.4
F
40
manda media
0
40
40
0.6
U
40
0
40

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0.6
F
100
manda alta
0
100
100
0.4
U
100
0
100
0.1
F
10
manda baja
0
10
10
0.9
U
10
0
10
0.4
F
45
manda media
0
45
45
0.6
U
45
0
45
0.4
F
70
manda alta
0
70
70
0.6
U
70
0
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ID
Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
Value
0
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

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Prob
Pred
0
0
0
Kind
0D
0E
0E
1E
1E
1E
2E
2E
2E
3T
3T
4T
4T
5T
5T
6T
6T
7T
7T
8T
8T
NS
S1
S2
2
3
3
1
3
6
2
4
7
2
2
2
2
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9
11
13
15
17
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
10
12
14
16
18
20
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

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S3
S4
S5
Row
Col
Mark
0
5
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
29
14
44
1
5
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
14
24
34
44
54
2
7
12
17
22
27
32
37
42
47
52
57
9
9
9
9
9
9
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13

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21.
Usted es el nuevo encargado de los proyectos de sobre nuevos productos en la em
En estos momentos le toca decidir sobre un nuevo producto. La decisin que debe toma
es sobre si debe introducir, no introducir o hacer una prueba con el nuevo producto. Si se
introduce el producto puede tener ventas altas lo cual genera un ingreso de 4 millones d
soles o ventas bajas con una prdida de 2 millones de soles. Si se decide no introducir
esto no genera ni ganancias ni prdidas. Si se decide probar, entonces se realiza un
estudio que puede tener como resultado xito, fracaso o resultados no concluyentes. Si
estudio tiene resultado xito, entonces se puede introducir o no el producto. Si se
introduce el producto, puede tener resultados de ventas altas lo cual genera un ingreso
neto de 3,8 millones de soles, o ventas bajas con una prdida de 2,2 millones de soles. S
no se introduce se genera una prdida de 0,2 millones de soles. Si el estudio tiene
resultado no concluyentes, entonces se puede introducir o no el producto. Si se introduc
el producto puede tener resultados de ventas altas lo cual genera un ingreso neto de 3,8
millones de soles o ventas bajas con una prdida de 2,2 millones de soles. Si no se
introduce se genera una prdida neta de 0,2 millones de soles. Si el resultado del estudi
es fracaso entonces se puede introducir o no el producto. Si se introduce el producto
puede tener resultados de ventas altas lo cual genera un ingreso neto de 3,8 millones de
soles o ventas bajas con una prdida de 2,2 millones de soles. Si no se introduce el
producto se genera una prdida de 0,2 millones de soles.
Las probabilidades a considerar son:
Nivel de ventas
Ventas altas
Ventas bajas
Pronstico de estudio
No
Fracaso
xito concluye
0.09
0.15
0.06
0.14
0.35
0.21
a. Elabore el rbol de decisiones de la situacin planteada.

b. Qu decisin debe tomar? Sustente.
TreePlan Trial Version, For Evaluation Only
Introducir
0
1000000

For Evaluation Only

No introducir
0
3
1400000
Hacer una prueba

1
0
1400000

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nuevos productos en la empresa.

a decisin que debe tomar
on el nuevo producto. Si se
un ingreso de 4 millones de
i se decide no introducir
entonces se realiza un
tados no concluyentes. Si el
o el producto. Si se
lo cual genera un ingreso
de 2,2 millones de soles. Si
s. Si el estudio tiene
el producto. Si se introduce
era un ingreso neto de 3,8
es de soles. Si no se
. Si el resultado del estudio
introduce el producto
so neto de 3,8 millones de
Si no se introduce el
0.5
Ventas altas
4000000
4000000
0.5
Ventas bajas
-2000000
-2000000

For Evaluation Only
0.5
Ventas altas
0.5
Introducir
0
3800000
3000000
0.5
Ventas bajas
xito
2200000
0
1400000
0.5
No introducir
-200000
-200000
0.5
Ventas altas
0.5
Introducir
0
3800000
800000
0.5
Ventas bajas
Fracaso
-2200000
0
300000
0.5
No introducir
-200000
-200000
0.5
Ventas altas
0.5
Introducir
0
3800000
3000000
0.5
Ventas bajas
No concluye
2200000
0
1400000
0.5

For Evaluation Only

No introducir
-200000
-200000

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www.TreePlan.com
4000000
-2000000

For Evaluation Only
3800000
3800000
2200000
2200000
-200000
3800000
3800000
-2200000
-2200000
-200000
3800000
3800000
2200000
2200000

For Evaluation Only
-200000
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ID
Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
Value
0
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

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For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only
Prob
Pred
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Kind
0D
0E
0T
0D
1T
1T
3E
3E
3E
6E
6T
9T
9T
7E
7T
13 T
13 T
8E
8T
17 T
17 T
NS
S1
S2
3
2
0
1
4
0
2
5
0
3
0
0
2
2
2
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
6
0
0
9
13
17
11
0
0
0
15
0
0
0
19
0
0
0
7
0
0
10
14
18
12
0
0
0
16
0
0
0
20
0
0
0

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only
S3
S4
S5
Row
Col
Mark
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
21
4
12
1
5
5
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
38
2
7
23
38
53
19
27
17
22
34
42
32
37
49
57
47
52
5
9
9
9
9
9
13
13
17
17
13
13
17
17
13
13
17
17


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For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

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TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

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TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only

For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only