PROBABILITY

Absolute and probable truth

absolute - absolutely true is one which is implied by the premises on which it
rests. e. g. A >B, and B>C, then A must be larger than C.
The Laws of Chance
(Galileo Galilei in about 1620)
If 3 dice are thrown at the same time, what is the total score which will occur most
frequently? (experienced dice players believed 10 and 11)
- a dice has 6 faces 6 possible outcomes
probability then is 1 chance in 6 throws
- 2nd dice thrown (of the same time of possible outcomes)
6 x 6 = 36
- to make a total of 2, you must throw a 1 and 1, and likely to occur only once
in 36 throws.
Whereas, a total score of 4 can be made with a 1 and 3, a 2 and 2, or a 3 and 1 so
this total can be expected on an average of 3 times in every 36 throws.
if you bet on a total of 4, you will 3x oftener than on 2.
- for 3 dice - 6 x 6 x 6 = 216 possible outcomes
First Law - the proportionate law (as relative frequency)
Whenever something (such as throwing a dice) can have more than one result, If all
the possible results have an equal chance of occurring, the probability of any one of
them occurring in a single trial will be the proportion which that particular result bears
to all the possible results.
e.g. a dice - a specified face will show with a single throw of the dice will be 1/6
cards - getting ace of hearts = 1 / 52 or 0.0192 or 1.92%
Second Law - the law of averages
Whenever something (such as throwing a dice) can have more than one result, if all
the possible results have an equal chance of occurring, the results that have will be
observed in a number of trials (throws) will generally vary to some extent from the
inherent proportions but the extent of this variation will become progressively less as
the number of trials is increased.
eg. if you throw a dice, it is rarely that you get a 1,2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 (in any order) in
those 6 throws.
- the average will thus be 1/6
- 2 heads in a group of 4 tosses = 1/2
- tossed a coin 10 times and get 4 heads (first trial) 4/10 = .40
- tossed a coin 200 times and yielded 106 heads = 106 / 200 = 0.53
Third Law - the Addition Law

whenever something (such as throwing a dice) can have more than one result, the
probability of alternative results occurring in a single trial will be the sum of their
individual probabilities.
e.g. calculating of getting either a 2 or a 3 in a single throw of a dice each number
has a chance of 1/6, so this law tells us that the chance of getting one or other score
will be 1/6 + 1/6 = 2/6, i.e. one chance in 3
eg. total score of 4 with 2 dice
- 1 and 3
- 2 and 2
- 3 and 1
three chances in 36 = 3/36
eg. chance of drawing an ace of hearts of the ace of spades blindly from a normal
pack of playing cards
1/52 + 1/52 = 2/52 , i.e. one chance in 36
Fourth Law - the Multiplication Law
Whenever something (such as throwing a dice) can have more than one result, the
probability of getting any particular combination of results in 2 or more independent
trials (whether consecutively or simultaneously) will be the product of their individual
probabilities.
- order of occurrence is not importance
- events must be independent
eg. the probability of getting two 1s by throwing a dice twice = 1/36; one chance in
36.
- the probability of getting a score of 3 and 1 with 2 dice if the order is not specified
will be one chance in 18. 2 ways (a 3 with a first dice and a 1 with the second dice, or
a 1 with the first dice and a 3 with the second dice); each of these ways has a
probability of 1/36.
1/36 + 1/36 = 1/18
- getting any particular combination of #s with the 2 dice (say, a 3 with the first
dice, and 1 with the second dice)
eg. of multiplication
-probability of drawing any specified card (say, the jack of diamonds) from a
shuffled pack of 52 playing cards is 1/52, so the probability of getting a specified card
from each of 2 such packs (say, the jack of diamonds from one pack and the green of
diamonds from the other one) will be the product of their individual probabilities
(which is the same as their proportions) which is
1/52 x 1/52 = 1 / 2,704; i.e. one chance in 2,704
eg. a bag contains 2 black marbles and 4 white ones. The marbles are identical in all
respects except color. If 2 marbles are drawn blindly from the bag, what is the

probability that they will both be black ones, if the first marble drawn is not put back
into the bag?
2/6 - probability of drawing black in the first draw
1/5 - possible probability in second draw