Geostatistical Analysis of Niagara Escarpment Tree Diameter

GEOSTATISTICAL
ANALYSIS OF NIAGARA
ESCARPMENT TREE
DIAMETER
GISC9308 D4B
March 30 2015

Produced for: Ian Smith

Created by: Matt Reaume & Jessica Serravalle

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Geostatistical Analysis of Niagara Escarpment Tree Diameter

March 30, 2015
GISC9308-D4B
Ian Smith, M.Sc
GISC Program Instructor, Fluvial Geomorphologist
Niagara College
135 Taylor Road
Niagara-on-the-Lake, ON
L0S 1J0
Dear Mr. Smith,
RE: GISC9308- Deliverable 4b: Geostatistical Analysis of Student Collected Spatial Data
Please accept this letter as the formal submission of deliverable 4b for the course GISC9308, Spatial
Analysis Statistics.
The assignment includes a formal report outlining the results of the Niagara Escarpment Tree
Diameter Analysis Project. Included in this report is a tabular overview of the data collected, along
with cartographically sound illustrations of the study area, data sampled, and the results of the spatial
analysis conducted. This project concluded that although there is a slight difference in diameter
between trees found above and below the Niagara Escarpment, no statistical correlation was found
between tree diameter and the distance between individual trees. This lack of statistical correlation is
likely due to the inability of the spatial interpolation methods used to take into account environmental
factors besides the distance between samples, such as microclimate and tree age.
Should you have any questions regarding the enclosed documents, or if there are technical issues
regarding the files please contact me at your convenience at mkreaume9@gmail.com. Thank you for
your time and attention. I look forward to your comments and suggestions.
Kindest Regards,

M.R. BSc
GIS GM Certificate Candidate
Niagara College
MR/
Enclosures:

Hardcopy
a) Formal Report for Geostatistical Analysis of Niagara Escarpment Tree Diameter
135 Taylor Road - Niagara-on-the-Lake, ON - L0S 1J0

Geostatistical Analysis of Niagara Escarpment Tree Diameter

Executive Summary
The Niagara Escarpment Tree Diameter Analysis Project aims to analyze the relationship between
microclimate and tree diameter above and below the Niagara Escarpment. The study area for this
project was the portion of the escarpment contained within the boundaries of Woodend Conservation
Area in Niagara-on-the-Lake, Ontario. In total, 100 trees were sampled, with 50 trees measured above
the escarpment and 50 trees measured below the escarpment. To measure the tree diameters, a
measuring tape was used to determine the circumference of the tree at breast height, along with a GPS
to track the coordinates and the elevation for each tree. After analyzing the raw data, it was found that
on average, tree diameter was slightly larger above the Niagara Escarpment than below the
escarpment.
After conducting a preliminary analysis, two spatial interpolation methods were used to create
predictive surfaces of the areas in which the trees were measured. Inverse Distance Weighting and
Kriging tools were used in ArcGIS to examine the correlation between tree diameter and the distance
between trees. Using these methods, histograms, QQ plots, semivariograms, and cross validation
graphs were produced. The results of this analysis showed that there is no correlation between tree
diameter and the distance between individual trees.
After evaluating the sampling methods used to measure tree diameter for this project, it was evident
that there were significant gaps in the data for trees measured below and above the escarpment. If any
future projects similar to this topic are carried out, it is recommended that the study area is carefully
planned out prior to conducting field work to ensure that gaps in the data are minimized.

Geostatistical Analysis of Niagara Escarpment Tree Diameter

Table of Contents
Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................................ i
1.

Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 1

2.

Study Area................................................................................................................................................... 1

3.

Summary of Data ....................................................................................................................................... 5

4.

Data Collection .......................................................................................................................................... 7

5.

Preliminary Analysis .................................................................................................................................. 8

6.

Inverse Distance Weighting ...................................................................................................................10

a.

Methodology ........................................................................................................................................11

b.

Data Analysis........................................................................................................................................12

i.

Histograms ...........................................................................................................................................12

ii.

Cross Validation ..................................................................................................................................14

7.

Kriging.......................................................................................................................................................15
a.

Methodology ........................................................................................................................................16

b.

Data Analysis........................................................................................................................................17

i.

Histograms ...........................................................................................................................................18

ii.

QQ Plots ...............................................................................................................................................19

iii. Spatial Autocorrelation .......................................................................................................................21

iv.
8.

Cross Validation ..............................................................................................................................23

Final Analysis ...........................................................................................................................................25

a.

Evaluation of Results ..........................................................................................................................25

i.

Map of IDW Results below and above the Niagara Escarpment ................................................26

ii.

Map of Kriging Results below and above the Niagara Escarpment ............................................27

b.

Method Comparison ...........................................................................................................................28

c.

Sample Coverage Evaluation .............................................................................................................28

d.

Future Recommendations ..................................................................................................................29

9.
10.

Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................29
Sources ..................................................................................................................................................30

Appendix A .......................................................................................................................................................28

Geostatistical Analysis of Niagara Escarpment Tree Diameter

List of Figures
Figure 1: Study Area .......................................................................................................................................... 2
Figure 2: Study Area showing Sampling Sites................................................................................................ 3
Figure 3: Trees Sampled Below Escarpment ................................................................................................. 4
Figure 4: Trees Sampled Above Escarpment ................................................................................................ 4
Figure 5: Frequency of Northing Values ........................................................................................................ 6
Figure 6: Frequency of Easting Values ........................................................................................................... 6
Figure 7: Frequency of Elevation Values ....................................................................................................... 7
Figure 8: Boxplot of Tree Diameter below Escarpment ............................................................................. 8
Figure 9: Boxplot of Tree Diameter above Escarpment ............................................................................. 9
Figure 10: Elevation vs. Tree Diameter ........................................................................................................10
Figure 11: IDW Input Parameters for Trees below Escarpment .............................................................11
Figure 12: Mosaicking the IDW Rasters.......................................................................................................12
Figure 13: Histogram of Tree Diameter below the Escarpment (IDW) .................................................13
Figure 14: Histogram of Tree Diameter above the Escarpment (IDW) .................................................13
Figure 15: IDW Cross Validation below Escarpment ................................................................................14
Figure 16: IDW Cross Validation above Escarpment ................................................................................15
Figure 17: Kriging Input Parameters ............................................................................................................16
Figure 18: Mosaicking the Kriging Rasters ..................................................................................................17
Figure 19: Histogram of Tree Diameter below the Escarpment (Kriging) .............................................18
Figure 20: Histogram of Tree Diameter above the Escarpment (Kriging) .............................................19
Figure 21: Below Escarpment Kriging QQ Plot .........................................................................................20
Figure 22: Above Escarpment Kriging QQ Plot ........................................................................................21
Figure 23: Kriging Spatial Autocorrelation (Below Escarpment) .............................................................22
Figure 24: Kriging Spatial Autocorrelation (Above Escarpment) ............................................................23
Figure 25: Kriging Cross Validation below Escarpment............................................................................24
Figure 26: Kriging Cross Validation above Escarpment ............................................................................25
Figure 27: Map of Mosaicked IDW Results.................................................................................................26
Figure 28: Map of Mosaicked Kriging Results ............................................................................................27

List of Tables
Table 1: Summary Statistics for All Trees ...................................................................................................... 5
Table 2: Summary Statistics for Above and Below Escarpment ................................................................ 5

Geostatistical Analysis of Niagara Escarpment Tree Diameter

1. Introduction
The purpose of the Niagara Escarpment Tree Diameter Analysis Project is to determine if tree
diameter is impacted by microclimate. In order to verify this relationship, the diameter of a sample of
100 trees was measured in Wooded Conservation Area. The Woodend Conservation Area is located
along the Niagara Escarpment in Niagara-on-the-Lake, Ontario. The Niagara Escarpment is an ideal
location for studying microclimate because of the rapid change in elevation from the base of the
escarpment to the top of the escarpment.
Trees are heavily affected by the topography present in the geographical area in which they grow. The
goal of this project is to determine just how much of an effect topography has on tree growth. Tree
growth is influenced by many factors, including topography and climate variability (Bigler, 2012).Trees
growing at the base of the Niagara Escarpment experience a much different climate than trees that
grow at the top of the escarpment. At the base of the escarpment, there is more shade, resulting in a
cooler temperature. Furthermore, the steep slope of the escarpment affects the climate because cold
air is denser than warm air, which results in a downhill movement of cold air (Weather Online, n.d.).
This cold air collects at the base of the escarpment, ultimately lowering the temperature and having a
great effect on overall tree growth. It is because of the topography and downhill movement of cold
air that there are separate microclimates existing at both the base and top of the Niagara Escarpment.
The following report provides an overview of the data collected for 100 trees in the Woodend
Conservation Area. Surface interpolation techniques were used to estimate tree diameter values of
unsampled trees in the study area and determine if there is a spatial correlation between tree diameters
along the Niagara Escarpment. The first technique that was used was Inverse Distance Weighting
(IDW), which assigns values to unknown points by calculating the weighted average of the values
surrounding those points. The second technique that was used was Kriging, which interpolates values
for points at unsampled locations by using knowledge of the underlying spatial autocorrelation
provided by the semivariogram to find an optimal set of weights to estimate the surface at unsampled
locations (Babish, 2006).
Formal cartographic illustrations of the study location, individual sample locations and interpolated
results of the IDW and Kriging methods, a methodology of the interpolation process, along with
numerical data for each sample site have been included in this report.

2. Study Area
ArcMap was used to create the layout of the study location of the Woodend Conservation Area. Trees
were sampled in equal numbers, 50 trees above and 50 trees below the portion of the Niagara
Escarpment contained within the conservation area. These two sampling sites are shown in Figure 1
on the following page.

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Geostatistical Analysis of Niagara Escarpment Tree Diameter

Figure 1: Study Area

Trees sampled at the base of the escarpment were contained within the red area on the map, and trees
sampled at the top of the escarpment were contained within the purple area on the map.
Figure 2 shows an aerial photograph of the study location of Woodend Conservation Area. It includes
the locations of all individual sampled features. The two clusters of trees represent the sampling sites
below and above the Niagara Escarpment.

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Geostatistical Analysis of Niagara Escarpment Tree Diameter

Figure 2: Study Area showing Sampling Sites

From this map, it is evident that the trees above the escarpment, visible in the eastern portion of the
study area, were sampled in a more compact way, whereas the trees below the escarpment, visible in
the western portion of the study area, were sampled more linearly. This was unintentional, and the
implications of this difference in sampling will be discussed when examining the results of the spatial
interpolation techniques.
Figure 3 and Figure 4 on the following page display a more detailed view of each sampling site.

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Geostatistical Analysis of Niagara Escarpment Tree Diameter

Figure 3: Trees Sampled Below Escarpment

Figure 4: Trees Sampled Above Escarpment

The tree symbols used in the maps are representative of the diameter of the tree. Trees with larger
diameters appear larger on the map than trees with smaller diameters.
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Geostatistical Analysis of Niagara Escarpment Tree Diameter

3. Summary of Data
Table 1 below illustrates the summary statistics for all tree samples, including the mean, median, and
standard deviation of the easting and northing values, as well as the elevation (m) and diameter (m).
Table 1: Summary Statistics for All Trees

Mean
Median
Standard Deviation

Easting (m) Northing (m) Elevation (m) Diameter (cm)

649685
4779099
153
30
649689
4779106
154
30
229
151
25
12

A complete listing of all trees sampled and their easting, northing, diameter, and elevation values is
included in Appendix A. Since the purpose of this project is to compare trees below and above the
escarpment, calculating summary statistics for all the trees that were sampled is not completely
meaningful. Therefore, the summary statistics for elevation and diameter have been calculated
separately for the two groups of trees, which is shown below in Table 2.
Table 2: Summary Statistics for Above and Below Escarpment

Below Escarpment Above Escarpment

Mean Elevation (m)
129
178
Median Elevation (m)
129
179
Standard
Deviation
2
2
Elevation (m)
Mean Diameter (cm)
27
33
Median Diameter (cm)
25
31
Standard
Deviation
12
12
Diameter (cm)
It is evident from this data that overall, trees above the escarpment have slightly larger diameters than
those below the escarpment, with trees below the escarpment having a mean diameter of 27 cm, and
trees above the escarpment having a mean diameter of 33 cm.
Histograms for the data collected were created based on the northing, easting, and elevation data for
the measured trees. As seen in Figure 5 on the following page, there is a distinct separation of northing
values.

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Geostatistical Analysis of Niagara Escarpment Tree Diameter

Frequency of Northing Values

30

Frequency

25
20
15
10
5
0

Northing (m)
Figure 5: Frequency of Northing Values

This separation reflects the two groups of tree samples collected below and above the Niagara
Escarpment. The data to the left in the histogram represents the northing values of trees sampled
below the escarpment, and the data to the right in the histogram represents the northing values of the
trees sampled above the escarpment. The same distribution can be seen with the easting values in
Figure 6 below.

Frequency

Frequency of Easting Values

40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

Easting (m)
Figure 6: Frequency of Easting Values

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Geostatistical Analysis of Niagara Escarpment Tree Diameter

Figure 7 below shows the elevation values of trees both below and above the Niagara Escarpment.

Frequency of Elevation Values

50
45
40

Frequency

35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

Elevation (m)
Figure 7: Frequency of Elevation Values

As seen previously in Table 2, the mean elevation and median elevation are approximately the same
for sampling sites below and above the escarpment, which is illustrated by a normal distribution for
each sampling site in the histogram above.

4. Data Collection
In order to collect the data necessary for the completion of this project, the locations of two separate
sampling sites needed to be decided upon. These sampling sites needed to represent the different
microclimates existing below and above the Niagara Escarpment. Due to the close proximity of
Woodend Conservation Area to Niagara College, it was decided that the trees to be included in this
study would be located within the conservation area boundaries. The sampling sites were intended to
have the same area, and to be roughly rectangular in shape in order to accurately compare the two
datasets.
To measure the diameter of each tree, a measuring tape was used. The measuring tape was wrapped
around the width of the tree at breast height (roughly 4.5 feet above the ground) to obtain the
circumference value, which was then divided by the value of pi. A handheld GPS unit was also used
to gather the easting and northing coordinates, along with the elevation of each tree location in metres.
In order to ensure a randomly selected sample, trees were selected by walking in rows from one end
of the study site to the other. Although the goal was to sample each tree within a row, this was not
always accomplished due to the rough terrain of the forested area. In order to further eliminate
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Geostatistical Analysis of Niagara Escarpment Tree Diameter

skewness in the data, only mature trees were selected to be measured. The same procedure was
followed when measuring trees both above and below the Niagara Escarpment.

5. Preliminary Analysis
As discussed previously, the data show that tree diameter does differ below and above the Niagara
Escarpment. The mean tree diameter below the escarpment, as seen in Table 2, is 27 cm, while the
mean tree diameter above the escarpment is 33 cm. Figure 8 below illustrates a boxplot showing tree
diameter below the escarpment.

Figure 8: Boxplot of Tree Diameter below Escarpment

According to this boxplot, there are no outliers within the dataset; however, Figure 9, shown on the
following page, shows there are outliers in the data for trees measured above the escarpment.

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Geostatistical Analysis of Niagara Escarpment Tree Diameter

Figure 9: Boxplot of Tree Diameter above Escarpment

These outliers have diameters of 64 cm and 80 cm. Although the software used to create the boxplot
identifies these points as outliers, they are still valid data points because they were actual trees that fell
within the study area. Therefore, these points should not be excluded from the data analysis.
Figure 10 on the following page shows two distinct clusters of data points, which represent the two
datasets representing trees that were measured above and below the escarpment.

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Geostatistical Analysis of Niagara Escarpment Tree Diameter

Figure 10: Elevation vs. Tree Diameter

The scatterplot shows that the tree diameters are generally greater at higher elevations, which can be
seen by the greater height of the clustered data to the right of the scatterplot. However, this does not
necessarily mean that there is a correlation between elevation and tree diameter. Although the two
groups of trees measured were sampled from different elevations, the diameter of these trees is likely
more affected by the microclimate caused by the drastic change in elevation due to the Niagara
Escarpment, rather than the elevation alone.

6. Inverse Distance Weighting

The first spatial interpolation method that was used on the tree diameter data for the Niagara
Escarpment was Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW). IDW is a deterministic technique, which means
that surrounding measurements are used to calculate the interpolated surface (Babish, 2006). In order
to calculate the unknown points, a weighted average is introduced based upon the values at known
points. In this case, IDW does not work on complex values, such as tree diameter at different
elevations, because IDW only accounts for distance of the sampled trees instead of taking the age of
the tree into account.

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Geostatistical Analysis of Niagara Escarpment Tree Diameter

a. Methodology
In order to develop an Inverse Distance Weighting interpolation, the IDW tool must be used to input
the trees sampled below and above the Niagara Escarpment. Figure 11 below illustrates the parameters
used for the trees sampled below the Niagara Escarpment.

Figure 11: IDW Input Parameters for Trees below Escarpment

The parameters used for the IDW tool in ArcGIS included the Z value field to be based on the
diameter of the tree, a standard search neighbourhood selected by default, and 10 to 15 neighbours,
which was used because the variability of the data was unknown and this range accounted for multiple
trees sampled in the area.
Upon creating the IDW surface, a sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the effects of using
multiple sectors and power values; however, the difference in RMS error was minimal. It should be
noted that different parameters could have been used, but the results would remain approximately the
same.
The next step in the IDW interpolation process was to mosaic the rasters created from the IDW upon
converting the polygon to a raster. Figure 12 below shows the mosaicking tool and the parameters
used.

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Geostatistical Analysis of Niagara Escarpment Tree Diameter

Figure 12: Mosaicking the IDW Rasters

The Mosaic tool in ArcGIS was used to mosaic the trees sampled below and above the Niagara
Escarpment to create the same symbology, so a meaningful comparison could be made between the
two sampled areas.

b. Data Analysis
By examining the IDW data provided below, an accurate understanding of the results can be
interpolated. Histograms are provided to show the average diameter of trees sampled below and above
the Niagara Escarpment and to illustrate the spread of the data. A cross validation scatterplot is also
provided to measure the correlation and amount of error the data incorporates.

i. Histograms
Histograms portraying the results of tree diameter below and above the Niagara Escarpment are
shown below in Figure 13 and Figure 14 for the IDW method.

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Figure 13: Histogram of Tree Diameter below the Escarpment (IDW)

Upon analyzing the IDW methods histograms, trees sampled below the Niagara Escarpment have a
minimum diameter of 10 cm, while the maximum diameter is 55 cm. The average tree diameter in this
area is 28 cm and the standard deviation is approximately 5 cm.

Figure 14: Histogram of Tree Diameter above the Escarpment (IDW)

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By comparing these statistics to the trees sampled above the Niagara Escarpment, the data below are
much smaller in diameter. Trees sampled above the Niagara Escarpment have a minimum diameter
of 17 cm, while the maximum diameter is approximately 80 cm. The average tree diameter in this area
is approximately 34 cm and the standard deviation is 6 cm. These results indicate that overall, tree
diameter is influenced by microclimate, and thus the diameter is larger in areas that are not impacted
by microclimate factors, such as the area above the escarpment.

ii. Cross Validation

Cross validation is a model validation technique for assessing how the results of a statistical analysis
will generalize to an independent data set. This model describes the amount of error each point
predicted by the model in comparison to the reality of the placement of the trees sampled. The root
mean square (RMS) error indicates the amount of error each tree sampled has in terms of the diameter
measured. Below, Figure 15 and Figure 16 show the cross validation models for the trees sampled
below and above the Niagara Escarpment using the IDW method of interpolation.

Figure 15: IDW Cross Validation below Escarpment

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The placement of the points are sparse when compared to the model (blue line) and the normal
distribution (gray line). This means there is no correlation between the diameter of the trees sampled
below the Niagara Escarpement. Therefore, the measured values (x-axis) and the predicted values (yaxis have no correlation. The RMS Error is 13.5, which means there is 13.5 cm worth of error in the
ability of the model to predict tree diameter accurately.

Figure 16: IDW Cross Validation above Escarpment

The placement of the points in Figure 16 are also sparse when being compared to the model (blue
line) and the normal distribution (gray line). This, again, means there is no correlation between the
diameter of the trees sampled above the Niagara Escarpement. The RMS Error is 13.2, which means
there is 13.2 cm worth of error in the ability of the model to predict tree diameter accurately.

7. Kriging
Kriging was the second spatial interpolation method that was used. Typically, the results of the kriging
method are of a higher quality and are more realistic than the results of the IDW method (Babish,
2006). In addition, the kriging method of spatial interpolation provides the user with a measure of
error between the actual data values and the values calculated by the model (Babish, 2006). Kriging
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Geostatistical Analysis of Niagara Escarpment Tree Diameter

differs from IDW in that it is a stochastic interpolation method rather than a deterministic
interpolation method, meaning that the technique is based on the surrounding measurements of a data
point, as well as statistical relationships between points (Babish, 2006). The kriging method was used
as an alternative to the IDW method, so that the results could be compared and the two spatial
interpolation methods evaluated.

a. Methodology
In order to create a Kriging interpolated surface to represent tree diameter below and above the
Niagara Escarpment, the Kriging tool in ArcGIS was used. This tool was used to create two separate
surfaces, one using the data from trees measured below the escarpment, and one using the data from
trees measured above the escarpment. The parameters used to create both surfaces were the same,
and can be seen in Figure 17 below.

Figure 17: Kriging Input Parameters

As seen above, tree diameter was used as the Z-value field. The Z-value is used to interpolate the
predictive surface, meaning that the result of the kriging method is a surface that predicts tree diameter
at locations where no trees were measured.
The ordinary kriging method was used to create the predictive surfaces. This was chosen because
ordinary kriging is generally used for data that seems to have a trend (Esri, 2012), and it appeared that
there was a trend present in the tree diameter data, with trees having larger diameters at the top of the
escarpment compared to below the escarpment.
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The default semivariogram model, output cell size, and search radius settings were accepted, as the
default parameters seemed to fit the tree diameter data well. The number of points within the search
radius was kept as 12. Since there were 50 data points being used for each surface, it was important to
have a search radius large enough to get an accurate prediction, but not so large as to produce less
than meaningful results. Therefore, 12 was chosen as an appropriate value.
Once the two kriging predictive surfaces had been created, the Mosaic tool in ArcGIS was used to
combine the rasters into a single dataset, shown in Figure 18 below.

Figure 18: Mosaicking the Kriging Rasters

This was done in order to show the data on the same scale. The two surfaces were originally
symbolized using different scales, as the minimum and maximum diameter values for trees above and
below the escarpment differed. By combining the datasets, the kriging data became more meaningful.

b. Data Analysis
The results of the kriging method were analyzed to determine the ability of the generated model to
predict reality. This was done by performing a statistical analysis involving the examination of
histograms, quantile-quantile plots, semivariograms, as well as performing a cross validation of the
two separate surfaces produced using the kriging method.

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Geostatistical Analysis of Niagara Escarpment Tree Diameter

i. Histograms
Histograms portraying the results of tree diameter below and above the Niagara Escarpment are
shown below in Figure 19 and Figure 20 for the Kriging method of interpolation.

Figure 19: Histogram of Tree Diameter below the Escarpment (Kriging)

Upon analyzing the kriging methods histograms, trees sampled below the Niagara Escarpment have
a minimum diameter of 21 cm, while the maximum diameter is 32 cm. The average tree diameter in
this area is 27 cm, the standard deviation is approximately 3 cm, and is unimodal and skewed to the
right.

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Geostatistical Analysis of Niagara Escarpment Tree Diameter

Figure 20: Histogram of Tree Diameter above the Escarpment (Kriging)

By comparing these statistics to the trees sampled above the Niagara Escarpment, the data below are
slightly lower in diameter. Trees sampled above the Niagara Escarpment have a minimum diameter
of approximately 29 cm, while the maximum diameter is 40 cm. The average tree diameter in this area
is 33 cm, the standard deviation is 3 cm and the histogram is bimodal. These results mean that overall,
the tree diameter is influenced by microclimate, and thus the diameter is larger in areas that are not
impacted by microclimate, such as above the escarpment.

ii. QQ Plots
Quantile-quantile (QQ) plots were generated for the two kriging surfaces representing tree diameter
above and below the Niagara Escarpment. When creating the kriging surface, the QQ plot can be
used to visually assess the distribution of the data points (Babish, 2006). If the data are normally
distributed, the points will align with the blue 45 degree line in the plot. The QQ plot for the trees
below the escarpment can be seen in Figure 21 on the following page.

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Geostatistical Analysis of Niagara Escarpment Tree Diameter

Figure 21: Below Escarpment Kriging QQ Plot

The above figure shows that the tree diameter data collected below the Niagara Escarpment are
normally distributed. The red points represent tree diameter values, and they form a linear pattern,
indicating that the data form a normal distribution.
Figure 22 on the following page is a QQ plot showing the distribution of tree diameter values for trees
measured above the escarpment.

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Figure 22: Above Escarpment Kriging QQ Plot

The above plot shows that the tree diameter values for trees above the escarpment are normally
distributed, as the points representing sampled values mostly align with the 45 degree blue line.

iii. Spatial Autocorrelation

The spatial autocorrelation of the data was examined by producing semivariograms for tree diameter
data collected both above and below the Niagara Escarpment. Semivariogram functions assume that
nearby things tend to be more similar than things that are far apart, and produce a quantification of
this relationship by examining the correlation between data values as a function of distance (Esri,
2013). In a dataset where there a statistical correlation exists, the semivariogram will show a curved
line reaching upwards and to the right, and will have a definitive range. Figure 23 below shows the
semivariogram for tree diameters measured below the escarpment.

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Figure 23: Kriging Spatial Autocorrelation (Below Escarpment)

In the above semivariogram, the model, represented by the blue line, is flat, which indicates that there
is no correlation between tree diameter and the distance between individual trees. Essentially, this
means that trees that are close together could have very similar diameters, or very different diameters.
A similar trend (or lack thereof) can be seen in Figure 24 below.

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Figure 24: Kriging Spatial Autocorrelation (Above Escarpment)

iv. Cross Validation

As described previously in Section 4b ii, cross validation describes the amount of error each point has
compared to the reality of the placement of the trees sampled. This error is referred to as the RMS
error, which indicates the amount of error each sampled tree has in terms of the diameter. Below,
Figure 25 and Figure 26 show the cross validation models for the trees sampled below and above the
Niagara Escarpment using the kriging method.

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Geostatistical Analysis of Niagara Escarpment Tree Diameter

Figure 25: Kriging Cross Validation below Escarpment

Due to ArcGIS software complications, the geostatistical wizard did not accurately portray the
sampled points of the trees below the escarpment for the kriging method. Despite these complications,
the RMS error provides data that is meaningful and consistent with previous data analysis. The RMS
error for the area below the escarpment is 11.6, which means there is an 11.6 cm amount of error in
the ability of the model (blue line) to predict the tree diameter accurately.

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Geostatistical Analysis of Niagara Escarpment Tree Diameter

Figure 26: Kriging Cross Validation above Escarpment

The placement of the points in Figure 26 are slightly sparse when being compared to the model (blue
line) and the normal distribution (gray line). This means there is very little correlation between the
diameters of the trees sampled below the Niagara Escarpment. This correlation can be shown through
the RMS error, which is 11.9. An RMS error of 11.9 means there is 11.9 cm worth of error in accurately
predicting the tree diameter above the Niagara Escarpment in the kriging method.

8. Final Analysis
Based on the spatial interpolation methods conducted on the tree diameter data, it is evident there is
no correlation between the distance between sampled trees above and below the Niagara Escarpment
and their respective tree diameters. Although there is a difference in diameter as microclimate changes
from above to below the escarpment, there is no correlation between the tree diameters within the
spatial extent of trees sampled in each separate location. No correlation could possibly occur because
there are many factors that may affect tree diameter, and spatial interpolation methods only take into
account the distance between the points, and not factors such as slope, tree age, aspect, and the
elevation of the locations at which the trees were sampled.

a. Evaluation of Results
Figure 27 shows the results of the mosaicking process of the IDW results of trees above and below
the Escarpment.
25 | P a g e

Geostatistical Analysis of Niagara Escarpment Tree Diameter

i. Map of IDW Results below and above the Niagara Escarpment

Figure 27: Map of Mosaicked IDW Results

The above figure illustrates that overall there has tree diameter are larger above the escarpment than below the escarpment. This can be seen by the more
frequently occurring red spots at the top of the escarpment representing the larger diameter as compared to the blue shades below the escarpment.
26 | P a g e

Geostatistical Analysis of Niagara Escarpment Tree Diameter

ii. Map of Kriging Results below and above the Niagara Escarpment
Figure 28 below shows the mosaicked results of the Kriging method used on the data for trees above and below the escarpment.

Figure 28: Map of Mosaicked Kriging Results

27 | P a g e

Geostatistical Analysis of Niagara Escarpment Tree Diameter

By referring to Figure 28 on the previous page, it is evident that trees below an elevation of 170 m
have a smaller diameter due to microclimate factors resulting from the presence of the Niagara
Escarpment. Figure 28 illustrates that overall, average tree diameter is larger above the escarpment
than below the escarpment. This can be seen by the more frequently occurring red spots at the top of
the escarpment, representing the larger diameter, as compared to the blue shades below the
escarpment, representing a smaller diameter. This relationship is more visible above the escarpment
than below the escarpment due to poor sampling methods of measuring tree diameter below the
escarpment.

b. Method Comparison
Overall, the kriging interpolation method is more accurate than the IDW interpolation method in
creating the predictive surfaces. This is because the RMS error is slightly lower for the kriging method
than the IDW method, which means the kriging model is better at predicting tree diameter than the
IDW model. The kriging method is essentially more accurate because it accounts for more variables,
whereas IDW does not work on complex variables and only accounts for the distance between
measured values. The kriging method allows for error to be calculated and examined, and allows the
user to determine which statistical transformations best suit the data by producing QQ plots and
semivariograms. Furthermore, the bulls-eye effect visible in the IDW results is minimized using the
kriging method.

c. Sample Coverage Evaluation

In the data collected below the escarpment, there are significant gaps between the locations of
measured trees. This is evident when examining the spatial extent of the tree data collected. Trees
below the escarpment were sampled in a linear manner, as opposed to a more evenly distributed spatial
extent. Since both the IDW and kriging spatial interpolation techniques used a square spatial extent
to develop the interpolated surfaces, this linear sampling method resulted in a less accurate surface.
The sampling area below the escarpment was intended to be more evenly distributed, but topographic
issues in the study area, such as fallen trees and significant slopes, hindered this process.
Another major gap in the data was the inability to collect tree diameters directly above and below the
escarpment. It was not possible to measure trees directly above the trees sampled at the bottom of the
escarpment due to the location being inaccessible, based upon the locations of the trails in Woodend
Conservation Area, where the trees above the escarpment were measured.

28 | P a g e

Geostatistical Analysis of Niagara Escarpment Tree Diameter

d. Future Recommendations
In future studies conducted on this topic, it is recommended that the study area is carefully selected
prior to sampling to ensure that trees above and below the escarpment can be measured in the same
relative area. This will guarantee that there is not a large gap between trees measured above the
escarpment and below the escarpment. It is important to ensure that this area is accessible by foot and
that topographical issues are minimized.
Additionally, it would be beneficial to create a physical boundary around the study area using flagging
tape to sample the trees. This would allow the individual conducting the tree diameter survey to be
certain that the trees are evenly distributed and are within a square area. In this way, the spatial
interpolation would be performed more accurately.

9. Conclusion
The Woodend Conservation Area was used as a sampling location for the Niagara Escarpment Tree
Diameter Analysis Project. Within the conservation area, the diameter and elevation of 100 trees were
measured from locations above and below the Niagara Escarpment. From the data collected, it was
evident that trees sampled above the Niagara Escarpment had a greater diameter than trees below the
escarpment. This is thought to be primarily caused by the difference in microclimate at the base of the
escarpment and at the top of the escarpment, as shown from the data discussed throughout the report.
The results of the two spatial interpolation methods that were conducted show that there is no
correlation between the tree diameter and the location of the individual trees. However, the kriging
method does model the data more accurately than the IDW method, which is shown through the
RMS error for the kriging model being lower than the RMS error for the IDW model.
Although the spatial interpolation does not show a correlation within the data, it became evident that
the trees above the escarpment did have greater diameter than the trees sample below when the results
of the IDW and kriging below and above the escarpment were mosaicked together. One possible
reason why the spatial interpolation statistics do not show a correlation is because these methods do
not take slight variations in environmental factors, such as slope, aspect, hillshade, elevation, and the
age of the trees measured, into account.

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Geostatistical Analysis of Niagara Escarpment Tree Diameter

10. Sources
Babish, G. (2006). Geostatistics Without Tears. Regina, Saskatchewan: Environment Canada.
Bigler, C. (2012). Influence of site characteristics and climate on tree growth. Retrieved from
http://www.fe.ethz.ch/research/standdynamics/dendroecology/index_EN
Esri. (2012). Understanding ordinary kriging. Retrieved from
http://resources.arcgis.com/en/help/main/10.1/index.html#/Understanding_ordinary_kri
ging/00310000003s000000/
Esri. (2013). Semivariogram and covariance functions. Retrieved from
http://help.arcgis.com/en/arcgisdesktop/10.0/help/index.html#//003100000036000000
Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.npca.ca/wpcontent/uploads/mountainview.jpg
Smith, I. (2014). GISC9308 Spatial Statistics Deliverable 4 Geostatistical Analysis of Student
Collected Spatial Data. Terms of Reference. Niagara-On-The-Lake, Ontario, Canada: Niagara
College Canada.
Weather Online. (n.d.). Katabatic Winds. Retrieved from
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Katabatic-winds.htm

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Geostatistical Analysis of Niagara Escarpment Tree Diameter

Appendix A
Tree
ID

Diameter
(cm)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38

Easting
(m)
37
15
55
38
15
49
35
35
17
23
31
45
23
19
20
21
16
48
25
11
44
29
32
28
32
38
19
33
19
49
34
13
23
25
16
13
35
44

649413
649414
649419
649424
649427
649428
649430
649434
649423
649422
649421
649432
649431
649438
649444
649451
649451
649458
649449
649445
649449
649451
649457
649468
649473
649469
649472
649472
649466
649466
649463
649466
649473
649473
649481
649483
649480
649480

Northing
(m)
4778928
4778937
4778925
4778928
4778912
4778910
4778911
4778915
4778933
4778938
4778943
4778943
4778943
4778925
4778927
4778922
4778915
4778922
4778940
4778943
4778946
4778944
4778942
4778935
4778939
4778945
4778943
4778953
4778955
4778962
4778968
4778971
4778963
4778960
4778957
4778962
4778968
4778968

Elevation
(m)

Below/Above
Escarpment
127
127
128
128
129
133
131
128
126
125
124
125
125
127
128
129
130
131
126
125
126
127
127
130
132
130
131
129
127
127
126
126
129
130
132
131
130
129

Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment

Geostatistical Analysis of Niagara Escarpment Tree Diameter

39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80

10
36
14
26
13
22
39
13
18
37
18
22
36
64
25
34
39
42
24
54
26
45
25
42
26
27
17
25
39
50
31
21
31
34
36
19
32
39
33
31
19
46

649480
649466
649475
649478
649485
649484
649489
649492
649494
649489
649491
649499
649925
649937
649942
649941
649942
649943
649942
649933
649928
649928
649933
649932
649926
649919
649923
649923
649927
649928
649924
649916
649910
649908
649916
649913
649901
649902
649903
649903
649912
649911

4778974
4778990
4778995
4778992
4778985
4778977
4778976
4778969
4778973
4778981
4778985
4778979
4779247
4779275
4779269
4779263
4779258
4779248
4779249
4779253
4779254
4779254
4779267
4779274
4779274
4779276
4779275
4779274
4779269
4779232
4779237
4779238
4779243
4779251
4779258
4779265
4779271
4779261
4779253
4779250
4779239
4779233

129
127
127
127
129
130
131
133
132
130
130
132
176
175
175
175
175
176
175
177
176
177
176
176
176
176
177
177
177
178
178
178
178
178
178
178
177
179
179
179
179
180

Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Below Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment

Geostatistical Analysis of Niagara Escarpment Tree Diameter

81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100

50
18
33
21
32
33
22
19
25
30
48
30
80
25
27
32
30
29
18
31

649913
649909
649905
649903
649893
649893
649883
649886
649886
649885
649894
649897
649901
649894
649897
649889
649884
649887
649886
649879

4779224
4779217
4779228
4779236
4779246
4779252
4779255
4779244
4779241
4779238
4779238
4779220
4779222
4779219
4779224
4779226
4779232
4779239
4779241
4779245

180
180
181
180
179
180
179
180
179
180
180
180
180
180
180
179
179
179
179
179

Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment
Above Escarpment