Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Sch in t SE001
NHP MN HIN I
c Prof. Dr. Do Duc Thai & Prof. Dr. Nguyen Tien Zung
c
Sputnik
Education
y l phin bn in t min ph
dnh cho cc bn c ca
Sputnik Education
Sputnik Education
Mc lc
Li ta cho bn e-book . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Li gii thiu . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
1
Xc sut l g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
1.1
Xc sut l g ? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Xc sut c iu kin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
Lut s ln . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
1.6
2.3.1 Trng hp ri rc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
2.3.2 Trng hp tng qut: tch phn trn khng gian xc
sut . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
2.3.3 K vng ca phn b xc sut trn R . . . . . . . . . . 100
2.3.4 Gi tr k vng hnh hc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
2.4
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
Lut s ln . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167
Cc nh l gii hn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177
4.1
. . . . . . . . . . . . 186
. . . . . . . . . . 188
Sputnik Education
5.1
Cc vn thng k . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210
5.2
. . . . . . . . 226
Kim nh 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 259
5.6
1.2
1.3
1.4
Sputnik Education
Li ta cho bn e-book
Cun sch ny c in ra ln u vo nm 2010. Cc tc gi
b rt nhiu tm tr v sc lc vit n, nhm t cht lng tt
nht c th. Mong mun ca cc tc gi l lm sao cun sch c
ph bin tht rng ri Vit Nam, c bit l cc trng i hc,
gip cc bn sinh vin tip cn c vi xc sut thng k mt
cch d hiu hn, ng bn cht hn, d ng dng hn.
T lc in ra nm 2010, cun sch nhn c rt nhiu phn
hi tch cc t pha bn c v mt ni dung cun sch. V mt cht
lng in n v pht hnh th khng c tt bng, v rt tic nhng
khu nm ngoi kh nng kim sot ca cc tc gi. Hin ti bn
in nm 2010 khng cn trn th trng, v cc tc gi nhn c th
ca hng trm ngi ni rng mun sch ti bn c th mua c.
c th phc v tt hn cc bn c, c bit l cc bn sinh
vin, cc tc gi kt hp vi T Sch Sputnik cng b min ph
bn in t ca cun sch ny. Mt s li trong bn in nm 2010
c sa trong bn in t ny.
T Sch Sputnik ca Sputnik Education, m cc tc gi tham gia
10
Sputnik Education
Li gii thiu
Xc sut v thng k ng vai tr rt quan trng trong hu ht
mi lnh vc ca th gii hin i, t khoa hc, cng ngh, n kinh
t, chnh tr, n sc khe, mi trng, v.v. Ngy nay, my tnh gip
cho vic tnh ton cc vn xc sut thng k ngy cng tr nn
d dng, mt khi c cc s liu ng n v m hnh hp l. Th
nhng, bn thn my tnh khng bit m hnh no l hp l. y l
vn ca ngi s dng: cn phi hiu c bn cht ca cc khi
nim v m hnh xc sut thng k, th mi c th dng c chng.
Mc ch ca quyn sch ny chnh l nhm gip bn c hiu
ng bn cht ca nhng khi nim v phng php c bn nht ca
xc sut v thng k, v qua c th p dng c chng, i su
tm hiu c phng php thch hp cho nhng tnh hung c th.
Mt s im m cc tc gi c gng a vo trong sch ny l:
- Gii thch bn cht cc khi nim mt cch trc gic, d hiu
nht trong chng mc c th, ng thi m bo cht ch nht
nh v mt ton hc.
- Cho nhiu v d v bi tp v nhng tnh hung c tht, vi s
11
12
Sputnik Education
Sputnik Education
13
14
Sputnik Education
Chng 1
Xc sut l g
1.1
Xc sut l g ?
Chng 1. Xc sut l g
c 3 cnh ca, ng sau 1 trong 3 cnh ca l 1 mn qu ln, cn
sau 2 ca cn li khng c g. Ngi chi c chn 1 trong 3 cnh
ca, nu chn ng ca c qu th c nhn qu. Sau khi ngi
chi chn 1 ca, ngi hng dn chng trnh m mt trong hai
ca cn li ra, nhng s ch m ca khng c qu. Sau ngi chi
c quyn chn, hoc l gi ci ca mnh chn ban u, hoc l i
ly ci ca cha c m cn li. Theo bn th ngi chi nn chn
phng n no? V sao ? Hy th ngh v n mt cht trc khi tip
tc c.
1.1.1
Xc sut ca mt s kin
Sputnik Education
1.1. Xc sut l g ?
c m cng c th khng. Nu nh c 100 v x s ch c 1 v trng
gii, th ti s coi xc sut trng gii ca v ca ti l 1%. Con s 1%
y chnh l tn sut, hay t l trng gii ca cc v x s: n bng
s cc v trng gii chia cho tng s cc v.
Khng nhng ch cc s kin trong tng lai, m c cc s kin
trong qu kh, m chng ta thiu thng tin c th bit chc l
chng thc s xy ra hay khng, th chng ta vn c th gn cho
cc s kin mt xc sut no , ng vi tin tng ca chng
ta v vic s kin thc s xy ra hay khng. V d nh, n
hong Cleopatra ca Ai Cp c t t bng cch cho rn c cn
khng ? y l mt gi thuyt, m theo cc nh s hc th c nhiu
kh nng xy ra, nhng khng chc chn.
1.1.2
(1.1)
(1.2)
17
Chng 1. Xc sut l g
V d 1.1. Mt hc sinh i thi vo mt trng i hc. Nu xc sut
thi l 80% th xc sut thi trt l 20% (= 100% - 80%), ch
khng th l 30%, v nu xc sut thi l 80% v xc sut thi trt
l 30% th khng nht qun.
V d 1.2. Ti tung mt ng tin, khi n ri xung th c th hin
mt sp hoc mt nga. Tng xc sut ca hai s kin mt sp v
mt nga bng 1. Nu ti khng c l do c bit g ngh rng
mt no d hin ln hn mt no, th ti coi rng hai mt c xc sut
hin ln bng nhau. Khi s kin mt nga c xc sut bng s
kin mt sp v bng 1/2.
Tin 3. Vi hai s kin A v B, ta s k hiu s kin c A v
B u xy ra bng A B v s kin t nht mt trong hai s kin
A hoc B xy ra bng A B. Khi nu hai s kin A v B khng
th cng xy ra, th xc sut ca s kin xy ra A hoc B bng tng
cc xc sut ca A v ca B:
P (A B) = 0 P (A B) = P (A) + P (B)
(1.3)
(1.4)
Sputnik Education
1.1. Xc sut l g ?
1.1.3
19
Chng 1. Xc sut l g
hn ca no, bi vy vo thi im ban u ta coi P (A) = P (B) =
P (C) = 1/3. Nhng sau khi ca B c m ra, th ta c thm mt
thng tin mi, l ca B khng c qu. Nh vy thng tin mi ny
lm thay i xc sut ca B: by gi ta c P (B) = 0. Khng ch xc
sut ca B thay i, m tng xc sut ca A v C by gi cng thay
i: P (A) + P (C) = 1 thay v bng 2/3 nh trc. Nh vy t ra mt
trong hai s P (A) hoc P (C) thay i, hoc l c hai. Xc sut P (A)
c thay i v thng tin mi ny khng ? Cu tr li l khng (Gii
thch v sao khng ?). Ch c P (C) l thay i: sau khi ngi hng
dn chng trnh m ca B, th ta c P (A) = 1/3 v P (C) = 2/3.
Nh vy ngi chi nn i ca A ly ca C th d thng hn.
thy r hn vic cnh ca cn li c nhiu kh nng c qu hn l
cnh ca m ngi chi chn ban u, thay v ch c 3 ca, ta hy
hnh dung c 100 ca. Sau khi bn chn 1 ca, ngi dn chng
trnh m 98 ca khng c qu trong s 99 ca cn li, ch li 1
ca thi. Khi , nu c i, bn s gi nguyn ca ca mnh, hay
l i ly ci ca cn li kia ?
Xc sut ph thuc vo iu kin. Chng ta s bn v xc sut c
iu kin v cng thc tnh xc sut c iu kin mt phn sau.
iu ng ch y l, mi xc sut u c th coi l xc sut c
iu kin, v u ph thuc vo nhng iu kin no , c th c
ni ra hoc khng ni ra (iu kin hiu ngm). V d, khi chng ta
ni khi tung ci xc sc S, xc sut hin ln mt c 3 chm l
1/6, chng ta hiu ngm S l mt ci xc sc u n, cc mt u
c kh nng xut hin nh nhau. Nhng nu S l mt ci xc sc
mo m, nh bn ny nng bn n (iu kin khc i), th hon ton
20
Sputnik Education
1.1. Xc sut l g ?
c th l xc sut khi tung hin ln mt c 3 chm s khc 1/6.
Mt v d khc l xc sut xy ra tai nn khi li t: khi ngi li
xe khoe mnh tnh to, th xc sut xy ra tai nn thp, cn khi vn
ngi li b say ru hoc bun ng gt, th xc sut xy ra tai
nn cao hn, v.v. Khi chng ta bit thm mt iu kin mi, tc l c
thm mt thng tin mi, bi vy s ph thuc vo iu kin ca xc
sut cng c th coi l s ph thuc vo thng tin.
Xc sut ph thuc vo ngi quan st, hay l tnh ch quan ca
xc sut. Cng l mt s kin, nhng hai ngi quan st khc nhau c
th tnh ra hai kt qu xc sut khc nhau, v c hai u c l, bi
v h da trn nhng thng tin v phn tch khc nhau. V d nh,
c chuyn gia ti chnh nh gi rng c phiu ca hng Vinamilk
c nhiu kh nng i ln trong thi gian ti, trong khi li c chuyn
gia ti chnh khc nh gi rng c phiu ca hng c nhiu kh
nng i xung t kh nng i ln trong thi gian ti. Quay li tr chi
truyn hnh: vi ngi chi th P (A) = 1/3, nhng i vi ngi dn
chng trnh th P (A) khng phi l 1/3, m l 0 hoc 1, v ngi
bit ng sau ca A c qu hay khng.
1.1.4
(1.5)
Sputnik Education
21
P (A) =
Chng 1. Xc sut l g
y N (total) l tng s cc trng hp c kho st, v N (A) l
s cc trng hp c kho st tha mn iu kin xy ra A.
C s ton hc cho vic dng thng k tnh xc sut, l lut s
ln v cc nh l gii hn, m chng ta s tm hiu pha sau trong
sch ny.
V d 1.4. C mt s s liu sau y v tai tn t v my bay. Trong
nhng nm 1989-1999, trn ton th gii, trung bnh mi nm c
khong 18 triu chuyn bay, 24 tai nn my bay cht ngi, v 750
ngi cht trong tai nn my bay. Cng trong khong thi gian ,
nc Php, trung bnh mi nm c khong 8000 ngi cht v tai
nn t, trn tng s 60 triu dn. T cc s liu ny, chng ta c
th tnh: Xc sut mt ngi Php b cht v tai nn t trong
mt nm l 8000/60000000 = 0,0133%. Xc sut i mt chuyn
bay gp tai nn cht ngi l 24/18000000 = 0,000133%, ch bng
1/100 xc sut b cht v tai nn t trong 1 nm. Nu mt ngi
mt nm bay 20 chuyn, th xc sut b cht v tai nn my bay trong
nm bng qung 20 0, 000133% = 0, 00266%, tc l ch bng 1/5
xc sut b cht v tai nn t trong nm.
V d 1.5. ng Gregor Mendel (1822-1884) l mt tu s ngi o
(Austria) thch nghin cu sinh vt. ng ta trng nhiu ging u
khc nhau trong vn ca tu vin, v ghi chp t mn v cc tnh
cht di truyn v lai ging ca chng. Nm 1866 Mendel cng b
mt bi bo v cc hin tng m ng ta qua st c, v l thuyt
ca ng ta gii thch cc hin tng. Mt trong nhng quan st
trong l v mu sc: Khi lai u ht vng vi u ht xanh (th
h th nht) th cc cy lai (th h th hai) u ra u ht vng,
22
Sputnik Education
1.1. Xc sut l g ?
nhng tip tc lai cc cy u ht vng th h th hai ny vi nhau,
th n th h th ba xc sut ra u ht xanh l 1/4. Con s 1/4
23
Chng 1. Xc sut l g
khi lai Yy vi Yy th c 4 kh nng xy ra : YY, Yy, yY v
yy. (Yy v yY l ging nhau v gen, nhng vit nh vy l
phn bit l phn Y n t cy th nht hay cy th hai trong 2 cy
lai vi nhau). V l thuyt, c th coi 4 kh nng trn l c xc sut
xy ra bng nhau. Bi vy xc sut cy th h th ba c gen yy
(ht mu xanh) l 1/4. Trong rt nhiu nm sau khi cng b, cng
trnh ca Mendel khng c cc nh khoa hc khc quan tm n,
nhng ngy nay Mendel c coi l cha t ca di truyn hc.
1.2
1.2.1
Sputnik Education
(1.6)
P () = 0, P () = 1.
(1.7)
P (A B) = P (A) + P (B).
(1.8)
ii)
iii) Nu A B = th
(1.9)
25
Chng 1. Xc sut l g
Sputnik Education
P (A) = P (A1
= P (A1 ) + lim
(An+1 \ An )) = P (A1 ) +
n=1
n
X
P (An+1 \ An )
n=1
k=1
(1.10)
Php ton ly gii hn l php ton c bn nht ca gii tch ton
hc, v mi php ton gii tch khc nh o hm, tch phn, v.v.
u c th c nh ngha qua php ly gii hn. Bi vy, tnh cht
sigma chnh l tnh cht cho php chng ta s dng gii tch ton
hc trong vic nghin cu xc sut. Cc nh ton hc c in trong
th k 18 v 19 dng cc php tnh vi tch phn trong xc sut,
tc l dng tnh cht sigma. V mt trc gic, tnh cht sigma
l m rng hin nhin ca tnh cht cng tnh (1.8). Tuy nhin, ni
mt cch cht ch ton hc, ng thc (1.9) khng suy ra c t
ng thc (1.8), v phi c coi l mt tin trong xc sut. Tin
ny c ra bi nh ton hc ngi Nga Andrei Nikolaievitch
Kolmogorov (1903-1987), ngi xy dng nn tng cho l thuyt xc
sut hin i.
Bi tp 1.2. Chng minh rng, vi 3 tp con A, B, C (o c) bt
Sputnik Education
27
Chng 1. Xc sut l g
k trong mt khng gian xc sut, ta c:
P (ABC) = P (A)+P (B)+P (C)P (AB)P (BC)P (CA)+
+ P (A B C).
1.2.2
Sputnik Education
29
Chng 1. Xc sut l g
thng c xc sut bng 1/. Nh vy hai s kin nm ln 1
ng thng v nm lt vo gia hai ng thng hp thnh mt
khng gian xc sut Bernoulli vi p = 1/. Tung kim n ln, v gi s
ln kim nm ln 1 ng thng trong s n ln tung l bn . Khi ,
theo lut s ln, bn /n tin ti p = 1/ khi n tin ti v cng. Bi vy
xp x tnh s , c th lm nh sau: tung kim tht nhiu ln, m
s ln kim ln trn 1 ng thng, ri ly s ln tung chia cho s
. Phng php tung kim ca Buffon chnh l tin thn ca phng
php Monte-Carlo trong ton hc.
1.2.3
Phn b xc sut u
Sputnik Education
31
Chng 1. Xc sut l g
no d nm pha di con bi no hn trong cc con bi ng nm
sp, v khi th phi coi rng xc sut ca cc s l nh nhau. Nu
nh c nhng con bi c nh du (chi n gian), th tt nhin
i vi ngi bit chuyn nh du, khng cn phn b xc sut u
na.
Cng thc tnh xc sut ca mt s kin trong mt phn b
xc sut u rt n gin: Nu nh khng gian xc sut vi phn
b xc sut u c N phn t, v s kin c biu din bng mt
tp con A ca vi k phn t, th xc sut ca A bng k/N :
P (A) =
k
#A
=
#
N
(1.11)
Sputnik Education
1.2.4
33
Chng 1. Xc sut l g
mn). Phn b Poisson ng vi hai gi thuyt: lng khch hng
trung bnh trong mt ngy l , v cc khch hng i n siu th
mt cch ngu nhin v c lp vi nhau. Chng ta s tm hiu k
hn v phn b Poisson trong nhng phn sau.
V d 1.11. Ta bit rng c mt xe t X ang u trn mt khc
ph Z, v ta quan tm n v tr ca X trn ph . Ta c th m
hnh X bng 1 im, Z bng mt on thng v ly on thng
lm khng gian xc sut: = [a, b], a, b R, a < b. (M hnh xc sut
lin tc ny c s phn t l continuum, khng m c). S kin
t ch no trn khc ph chuyn thnh s kin im x
nm trong mt on thng con no trn on thng = [a, b].
Ta c th chn phn b xc sut u trn = [a, b] theo ngha sau:
xc sut ca mi on thng con trn t l thun vi di ca
on thng con , v bng chiu di ca on thng con chia
cho chiu di ca : P ([c, d]) = (d c)/(b a).
1.2.5
Sputnik Education
P (Si )
(1.12)
(1.13)
35
Chng 1. Xc sut l g
mn hn nh sau: c tng cng 4! = 24 cch t 4 bn ngi vo 4
gh, trong c 3! = 6 cch c Al ngi vo gh A. Bi vy xc sut
Al ngi vo gh A l 6/24 = 4. Hai cch gii cho cng mt p
s, nhng s dng hai khng gian xc sut khc nhau: khng gian
th nht c 4 phn t, cn khng gian th hai c 24 phn t. C
mt php chiu t nhin bo ton xc sut t khng gian th hai ln
khng gian th nht.
nh l 1.1. Nu (1 , P1 ) l mt khng gian xc sut, v : 1 2
l mt nh x ty , th tn ti mt o xc sut P2 trn 2 , sao cho
nh x : (1 , P1 ) (2 , P2 ) l nh x bo ton xc sut.
Chng minh. C th xy dng P2 theo cng thc sau: vi mi tp
con B 2 , nu tn ti P1 (1 (B)) th ta t
P2 (B) := P1 (1 (B))
(1.14)
o xc sut P2 nh ngha theo cng thc trn c gi l pushforward ca P1 qua nh x , hay cn gi l phn b xc sut cm
sinh t P1 qua nh x .
1.2.6
Sputnik Education
(1.15)
37
Chng 1. Xc sut l g
sp nga c xc sut hin ln ging nhau trong mi ln tung. Khi
cc khng gian (k = {Sk , Nk }, Pk ) l ng cu vi nhau v vi mt
khng gian xc sut Bernoulli vi tham s p = 1/2. Ta c th vit:
= {S, N }3
V d 1.14. Trong v d trn, nu thay v ch tung ng xc sc c
3 ln, ta hnh dng la ta tung v hn ln (trong thc t khng lm
c nh vy, nhng c gi s ta c v hn thi gian v lm c
nh vy). Khi mi s kin c c th c nh du bng mt
dy v hn cc ch ci m mi ch l S hoc N, v khng gian xc
sut l
= {S, N }N
Ta c th xy dng mt nh x bo ton xc sut sau t {S, N }N vo
on thng [0, 1] vi phn b xc sut u trn :
((Mi )iN ) :=
(Mi )/2i
i=1
y mi Mi l S hoc N , v (N ) = 0, (S) = 1. nh x
: {S, N }N [0, 1]
xy dng nh trn khng phi l mt song nh, nhng n l mt
ng cu xc sut !
V d 1.15. Bi ton Mr. Hip s de Mr (tn khai sinh l Antoine
Gombaud (1607-1684), l nh vn v nh trit hc ngi Php) l
mt nhn vt lch s nghin nh bc. ng ta hay chi xc sc, v
nhn thy rng trong hai s kin sau:
A = Tung mt con xc sc 4 ln, c t nht 1 ln hin ln 6, v
38
Sputnik Education
39
Chng 1. Xc sut l g
ca de Mr. Kt qu l: P (A) = 1 P (A) = 1 (1 1/6)4 0, 5177,
v P (B) = 1 P (B) = 1 (1 (1/6)2 )24 0, 4914.
Sputnik Education
1.2.7
Phn b nh thc
(1.16)
n
X
Cnk xk y nk .
(1.17)
k=0
41
Chng 1. Xc sut l g
ny khng nh hng n ln th khc), th tng s ln xy ra kt
qu A trong s n ln l mt s nguyn nm gia 0 v n, v vi
mi k = 0, 1, 2, . . . , n, xc st ca s kin "s ln ra kt qu A l k"
bng Cnk pk (1 p)nk .
Tht vy, nu ta ly khng gian xc sut cho mi php th l
khng gian {A, A}, th khng gian xc sut cc trng hp ca n ln
th l {A, A}n (cc phn t ca khng gian ny l cc dy n kt qu,
m mi kt qu l A hoc A. C Cnk phn t ca khng gian {A, A}n
c cha ng k kt qu A v (n k) kt qu A. Xc sut ca mi
phn t l pk (1 p)k theo cng thc tch ca xc sut. Bi vy
xc sut ca s kin "kt qu A xy ra k ln" s phn t ca s kin
ny (hiu nh l mt tp con ca khng gian xc sut) nhn vi xc
sut ca mt phn t (v cc phn t ny c cng xc sut), v bng
Cnk pk (1 p)nk .
Bi tp 1.8. Hai vn ng vin Nam v Tin chi mt trn tennis.
Ai thng c 3 set trc th thng c trn. Gi s xc sut Nam
thng mi set l 40% ( Tin thng mi set l 60%, v kt qu ca
set ny khng nh hng n set khc). Hi xc sut Nam thng
trn tennis l bao nhiu ?
1.3
1.3.1
Xc sut c iu kin
nh ngha xc sut c iu kin
Sputnik Education
P (A B)
.
P (B)
(1.18)
(1.19)
#A
#
43
Chng 1. Xc sut l g
tn l Thanh ln bng, th xc sut bn l bn n l bao nhiu
? Li gii: trong 3 bn Thanh c 1 bn l n, bi vy xc sut l 1/3.
S dng cng thc P (A B) = P (B|A).P (A) vi xc sut c iu
kin, ta cng c P (B|A) = P (A B)/P (A) = (1/30)/(1/10) = 1/3.
(Cu hi: V sao hai cch gii khc nhau li ra kt qu ging nhau ?)
Ghi ch 1.3. C th gii thch ngha trit l v ton hc ca nh
ngha xc sut c iu kin nh sau: S kin A cng vi iu kin
B chnh l s kin A B, tc l c A v B cng xy ra. Ta c th
coi A v B l hai tp con ca mt khng gian xc sut ban u.
Cc tp con ca B chnh l cc s kin vi iu kin B c tha
mn. Khi chng ta t iu kin B, th tc l chng ta hn ch
khng gian xc sut t xung cn B, v hn ch cc s kin A
xung cn A B. Xc sut ca A vi iu kin B chnh l xc sut
ca A B trong khng gian xc sut mi B vi mt o xc sut
P1 : P (A|B) = P1 (A B). o xc sut P1 khng ty , m n c
sinh ra bi o xc sut P ban u, theo nguyn tc bnh qun:
nu C v D l hai tp con ca B (tc l 2 s kin tha mn iu
kin B) vi cng xc sut, P (C) = P (D), th ta cng phi coi rng
chng c cng xc sut c iu kin: P1 (C) = P1 (D). Mt cch tng
qut hn, ta c cng thc t l thun: P (C)/P (D) = P1 (C)/P1 (D)
nu C v D l hai tp con ca B. T suy ra: P (A B)/P (B) =
P1 (A B)/P1 (B) = P1 (A B) = P (A|B) (bi v P1 (B) = 1).
V d 1.17. Theo mt con s thng k M nm 2007, c khong
40% cc v tai nn xe c gy cht ngi l c ngi li say ru.
Gi s t l s ngi say ru khi li xe l 4%. Hi vic xay ru khi
li xe lm tng kh nng gy tai nn cht ngi ln bao nhiu ln ?
44
Sputnik Education
1.3.2
S c lp v ph thuc ca cc s kin
45
Chng 1. Xc sut l g
nh ngha 1.6. S kin A c gi l c lp vi s kin B nu nh
P (A) = P (A|B) = P (A B)/P (B),
(1.20)
(1.21)
(1.22)
i=1
Sputnik Education
(1.23)
47
Chng 1. Xc sut l g
ton th c 2 hc sinh c 1 hc sinh gii ngoi ng (ln hn t l
trung bnh). Khi trong s cc hc sinh gii ngoi ng, t l hc
sinh gii ton l 30% (cng ln hn t l trung bnh): (1/2)/(1/3) =
30%/(1/5).
Bi tp 1.11. Chng minh rng nu mt s kin A c lp vi s kin
B, th n cng c lp vi s kin B.
Bi tp 1.12. Tm mt v d vi 3 s kin A, B, C sao cho A c lp
vi hai s kin B v C, nhng khng c lp vi B C.
Bi tp 1.13. Ly mt b bi t l kh 52 qun, v rt ra t 2 ln
mi ln 1 qun, c 2 qun. Gi A l s kin qun rt ra u
tin l qun nhp v B l s kin qun rt ra th hai l qun c.
Hi hai s kin A v B c c lp vi nhau khng ?
1.3.3
(1.24)
n
X
i=1
48
P (A Bi ) =
n
X
i=1
Sputnik Education
(1.25)
1.3.4
P (A|B).P (B)
.
P (A)
(1.27)
Sputnik Education
49
Chng 1. Xc sut l g
hp cng thc trn vi cng thc xc sut ton phn cho P (A), ta
c:
nh l 1.3. Gi s (B1 , . . . , Bn ) l mt phn hoch ca khng gian
xc sut. Khi ta c cng thc Bayes sau:
P (Bk |A) =
(1.28)
vi mi k = 1, 2, . . . , n.
Sputnik Education
clinical laboratory results. New England Journal of Medicine, 299 (1978), 999-1000
Sputnik Education
51
Chng 1. Xc sut l g
s nhng ngi xt nghim ra dng tnh, c khong 98% s ngi
l khng b bnh. Ni cch khc, khi xt nghim ra dng tnh, xc
sut thc s mc bnh ch c 2% !
Bi tp 1.15. c bit c 5% n ng b m mu, v 0,25% n b
b m mu. Gi s s n ng bng s n b. Chn 1 ngi b m
mu mt cch ngu nhin. Hi rng xc sut ngi l n ng
l bao nhiu ?
1.4
1.4.1
Sputnik Education
Thuc I
Thuc II
Cha c
150
15
Khng cha c
850
285
Thuc I
Thuc II
Cha c
190
720
Khng cha c
10
180
1.4.2
53
Chng 1. Xc sut l g
gi (tc l hong t c sister) l 1/2.
2) C 4 kh nng cho 1 gia nh c 2 con: {B,B}, {B,G}, {G,B}, {G,G}.
(B = boy = con trai, G = girl = con gi, xp theo th t con th nht
- con th hai). V ta bit hong t l con trai (y l iu kin) nn
loi i kh nng {G,G}, cn 3 kh nng {B,B}, {B,G}, {G,B}. Trong
s 3 kh nng th c 2 kh nng c con gi. Nh vy xc sut
hong t c sister l 2/3.
Trong hai p n trn, t hn phi c (t nht) 1 p n sai. Th
nhng ci no sai, sai ch no ?
1.4.3
Sputnik Education
P (C|A).P (A)
.
P (C|A).P (A) + P (C|A).P (A)
1/2
1.(1/2)
=
= 2/3,
1.(1/2) + (1/2).(1/2)
3/4
1.4.4
55
Chng 1. Xc sut l g
ca cc php th th n thin v thuc II v khng phn nh ng t
l cha c bnh. Kt lun 1) l sai v kt lun 2) ng tin hn.
Nghch l 2. Nghch l ny c trong 1 quyn gio trnh ting Anh
v xc sut. iu ng ngc nhin l tc gi ca gio trnh ni
rng p n th hai ng (tc l xc sut = 2/3) v p n th nht
sai. c k p n th 2, ta thy kh nng B,B thc ra khng phi l
mt kh nng n, m l mt kh nng kp gm c 2 kh nng trong
: hong t c ni n hoc l ngi con trai th nht, hoc l
ngi con trai th hai. Nh vy phi tnh B,B l 2 kh nng B=H,B
v B, B=H (H l hong t). Nh th tng cng vn c 4 kh nng,
v xc sut vn l 2/4 = 1/2. Sai y l sai trong cch m s kh
nng. (C cu hi khc: ti sao 4 kh nng ny li phi c xc sut
bng nhau ? Ti sao li phi c phn b xc sut u ? Cu tr li
dnh cho bn c). Nu ta i bi ton i mt cht thnh: Mt gia
nh c 2 con, bit rng t nht mt trong hai con l con trai, th hi
xc sut c con gi l bao nhiu ? Trong bi ton ny th xc sut
l 2/3 tht. Bn c th ngh xem s khc nhau gia hai bi ton
nm ch no ?
Nghch l 3. Vn y nm s ln ln gia cc khng gian
xc sut trong lc lp m hnh tnh xc sut. Trong cch gii th
nht, khi ta vit P (A) tnh xc sut ca s kin "Vn Phm l
th phm", khng gian xc sut ca ta phi l khng gian C tt c
cc kh nng (vi mt trong 2 ngi Vn Phm v X l th phm)
tha mn iu kin "th phm l n ng", ch khng phi l khng
gian ca tt c cc kh nng c th xy ra (vi mt trong 2 ngi
Vn Phm v X l th phm), bt k th phm l n ng hay n
56
Sputnik Education
1.5. Lut s ln
b. cho khi ln ln, th trong cch gii th nht ta phi vit
PC (A) = PC (A|B).PC (B) + PC (A|B).PC (B) Trong khng gian th
ta c P (B) = 1/2, tc l xc sut X l n ng l 1/2. Nhng
trong khng gian C dng trong cch gii th nht, th ta phi dng
xc sut PC ca khng gian , v PC (B) khng phi l 1/2, m thc
ra l 2/3, v PC (B) = 1/3. Ni cch khc, khi bit rng mt trong
hai ngi X v Vn Phm l th phm, v bit rng th phm l n
ng, th xc sut X l n ng l 2/3 ch khng cn l 1/2 na
! (V sao vy ?). Nu ta s dng cc con s xc sut ny trong cng
thc tnh xc sut ton phn ca A trong khng gian C th ta c:
pC (A) = (1/2).(2/3) + 1.(1/3) = 2/3 Tc l nu ta sa li v xc sut
ca B i, th cch gii th nht s cho cng p s 2/3 nh cch gii
th hai.
1.5
Lut s ln
57
Chng 1. Xc sut l g
sp sau khi tung ng tin n ln, tc l s ln hin ln mt sp
sau khi tung ng tin n ln chia cho n, v d nh theo dy trn:
S(1) = 1, S(2) = 1/2, S(3) = 2/3, S(4) = 3/4, S(5) = 3/5, S(6) =
2/3, S(7) = 4/7, S(8) = 5/8, S(9) = 5/9, S(10) = 1/2, S(11) =
6/11, S(12) = 7/12, . . . . Cc con s S(n) m chng ta thu c ni
chung khc 1/2, nhng lut s ln ni rng chng ta c th yn tm
rng khi n tin ti v cng th S(n) s tin ti 1/2: limn S(n) =
1/2.
Di y chng ta s pht biu lut s ln mt cch cht ch
thnh nh l ton hc v chng minh n, cho phn b Bernoulli.
Gi s c mt php th no c th thc hin c nhiu ln,
v xc sut xy ra kt qu X trong mt ln th l mt hng s p,
0 < p < 1. (V d: php th l tung xc sc, kt qu l hin ln 1
chm, xc sut l p=1/6). Ta gi Xk,n l s kin sau: khi thc hin
n ln php th th X xut hin k ln trong s n ln th. Chng ta bit
rng xc sut ca Xk,n tun theo phn b nh thc:
P (Xk,n ) = Cnk pk (1 p)nk .
(1.29)
Cnk pk (1 p)nk .
n(p)kn(p+)
58
Sputnik Education
(1.30)
1.5. Lut s ln
nh l 1.4. Vi hai s dng p, bt k tha mn 0 < p < p + <
1, ta c
lim
Cnk pk (1 p)nk = 1.
(1.31)
n(p)kn(p+)
1 P (Xn ) = Un + Vn ,
(1.32)
trong
Un =
X
0k<n(p)
Cnk pk (1 p)nk v Vn =
Cnk pk (1 p)nk ,
n(p+)<kn
(1.33)
tin ti 0 khi n tin ti v cng. nh gi Vn , chng ta c th dng
Sputnik Education
59
Chng 1. Xc sut l g
th thut sau y: Gi l mt s dng bt k, khi ta c
X
Vn
e(kn(p+)) Cnk pk (1 p)nk
=
=
n(p+)<kn
(kn(p+)) C k pk (1 p)nk
n
0kn e
X
n
k (1p) k p
e
Cn (e
p) (e (1 p))nk
0kn
n
e
(e(1p) p + ep (1 p))n
(1.34)
(1.35)
60
Xem: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers.
Sputnik Education
1.6
61
Chng 1. Xc sut l g
ca hng c chn mt cch ngu nhin l mt ph n tr c thn
bng bao nhiu?
Bi tp 1.19. Mt anh chng c 2 c bn gi A v B, v khng bit
l thch c no hn. Anh ta hay i thm cc c bn mt cch ngu
nhin: ra bn xe but, nu gp xe but i tuyn ng n nh c A
trc th i ln xe thm c A, cn nu gp xe i tuyn ng n
nh c B trc th i thm c B. C hai tuyn ng u c xe u
n 10 pht mt xe. Sau mt thi gian di, anh ta nhn ra rng mnh
i thm c bn A nhiu gp 3 ln c bn B. C th gii thch bng
xc sut ti sao ?
Bi tp 1.20. (S may ri). Gi s c mt loi x s ch c 100 s, t
00 n 99, mi ln quay c 1 s trng gii.
i) Tnh xc sut sao cho trong 100 ln quay, khng c ln no s 68
trng gii.
ii) Tnh xc sut sao cho trong 100 ln quay, s 99 trng gii ng
2 ln.
Bi tp 1.21. Mt lp hc c 36 hc sinh. Hi rng xc sut c hai
hc sinh ca lp c cng ngy sinh nht l bao nhiu ? (Vit cng
thc tnh s , v th c lng xem s gn s no hn trong
3 s ny: 0, 50%, 1?)
V d 1.21. C n ngi chi tr tung mng trong mt d hi: mi
ngi cm 1 ci m ca mnh, tung vo gia phng. Sau mi
ngi nht ly mt ci m trong s cc m c tung mt cch ngu
nhin. Chng minh rng xc sut khng c ngi no nht c
ng m ca chnh mnh l
1
1
(1)n
1
+ ... +
.
2! 3! 4!
n!
62
Sputnik Education
63
Chng 1. Xc sut l g
gim i, bi vy ti s khng ni tn. Hi rng ngi cai ngc l lun
nh vy c ng khng ?
Bi tp 1.25. Hai k trm eo mt n, b cnh st ui bt, bn vt
mt n i v tr trn vo mt m ng. Cnh st bt gi ton b
m ng, tng cng 60 ngi, v dng my pht hin ni di (lie
detector) iu tra xem ai trong m ng l k trm. Bit rng
i vi k trm, xc sut b my nghi l c ti l 85%, nhng i vi
ngi v ti, th xc sut b my nghi nhm thnh c ti l 7%.
Gi s X l mt nhn vt trong m ng b my nghi l c ti. Tnh
xc sut X l k trm.
Bi tp 1.26. (B in). Nm 2001 Cng ng Chu u c lm mt
t kim tra rt rng ri cc con b pht hin nhng con b bnh
b in (bovine spongiform encephalopathy). Khng c xt nghim
no cho kt qu chnh xc 100%. Mt loi xt nghim, m y ta
gi l xt nghim A, cho kt qu nh sau: khi con b b bnh b in,
th xc sut ra phn ng dng tnh trong xt nghim A l 70%,
cn khi con b khng b bnh, th xc sut xy ra phn ng dng
tnh trong xt nghim A l 10%. Bit rng t l b b mc bnh b
in H Lan l 1,3 con trn 100000 con. Hi rng khi mt con b
H Lan phn ng dng tnh vi xt nghim A, th xc sut n
b mc bnh b in l bao nhiu ?
Bi tp 1.27. (Gi du ha). Gi du ha c nhng lc dao ng rt
mnh, c khi i ln hn 100% trong vng 1 nm. Gi s rng, nu
tnh gi theo USD ca nm 2009 (sau khi iu chnh theo t l
lm pht), th gi du ha khng bao gi xung di 10 USD mt
thng (di mc ngi ta ngng sn xut du ha v khng cn
64
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Sputnik Education
65
Chng 2
67
2.1.2
Sputnik Education
(2.1)
69
2.1.3
1 khi A
0 khi A = \ A
(2.2)
Sputnik Education
(2.3)
71
(2.4)
(2.5)
(2.6)
xa
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PX (]xk+1 , xk ])
k=1
l mt chui hi t, v bi vy phn ui
k=n PX (]xk+1 , xk ])
ca n
Sputnik Education
73
2.1.4
74
Sputnik Education
X (x)
ti im y = f (x)
|f 0 (x)|
(2.7)
Cng thc trn chng qua l cng thc i bin trong tch phn,
v sinh ra t cng thc df (x) = f 0 (x)dx.
Mt im x R c gi l mt im ht ca mt phn b xc
sut PX nu nh PX (x) > 0. B sau cho thy mt phn b xc
sut l lin tc khi v ch khi n khng c im ht:
nh l 2.4. Gi s FX l hm phn phi xc sut ca mt phn b
xc sut PX trn R.
i) Vi mi x R ta c
PX (x) = FX (x) lim FX (y).
yx
Sputnik Education
(2.8)
75
(2.9)
l tp hp cc im ht ca n (tc l tp hp cc im gin on
ca hm phn phi xc sut). Khi KX l tp hu hn hoc cng
P
lm l m c, v PX (A) = xKX PX (x) 1.
nh ngha 2.6. Mt phn b xc sut PX c gi l ri rc nu
nh n tp trung trn tp hp cc im ht ca n: PX (AX ) = 1,
PX (R \ AX ) = 0.
V d 2.6. Phn b xc sut trn R ca bin ngu nhin im kim
tra trong v d bi kim tra trc nghim mc trc l mt phn
76
Sputnik Education
(2.10)
vi DX (x) = PX (] , x] KX ) gi l phn ri rc ca FX , v
CX (x) = FX (x) DX (x) gi l phn lin tc ca FX . Phn b PX
c gi l hn hp nu nh c hai phn ri rc v lin tc u
khc 0. Nu phn lin tc khng phi l lin tc tuyt i (khng
vit c di dng tch phn ca mt hm khng m), th ta c th
tch n tip thnh tng ca phn lin tc tuyt i v phn lin tc k
d, nhng chng ta s khng i vo chi tit y.
V d 2.7. Trong xe t thng c kim ch mc xng, dao ng trong
khong t 0 (0%, tc l ht xng) n 1 (100%, bnh xng y). Mc
xng c kim ch vo c th coi l mt bin ngu nhin nhn gi
tr trong on thng [0, 1] vi phn b xc sut lin tc. Tuy nhin,
mt s xe t c, kim b hng, c lc n ch ng mc xng nhng
c lc n b tc ch s 0 tuy rng xe cn xng. Khi , phn b xc
sut khng cn l lin tc na m l hn hp, vi "ht" ti im 0.
Bi tp 2.2. Gi s bin ngu nhin X c phn b xc sut lin tc
vi hm mt X sau : X (x) = 0 khi |x| > 1 v X (x) = 1 |x| khi
|x| 1. Tm hm mt ca phn b xc sut ca bin ngu nhin
Y = arcsin(x).
Bi tp 2.3. Gi s bin ngu nhin X c phn b xc sut lin tc v
i xng, theo ngha X v X c cng phn b xc sut. Chng minh
Sputnik Education
77
2.2
2.2.1
(2.11)
Sputnik Education
k , v chng
= (1)k (r).(r1).....(rk+1)
= (1)k Cr
k!
X
k k
(1)k Cr
q
k=0
X
X
k k r
k
1=
(1) Cr p (1 p) =
P (k)
k=0
k=0
Sputnik Education
79
(2.12)
2.2.2
Phn b Poisson
k
e .
k!
(2.13)
Sputnik Education
81
k
e .
k!
(2.14)
Sputnik Education
2.2.3
83
1
ba
khi a x b
(2.15)
Sputnik Education
2.2.4
Phn b normal
(2.16)
85
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Sputnik Education
87
88
Sputnik Education
2.2.5
Phn b m
et dt = 1 ex .
(2.18)
89
2.2.6
Phn b Pareto
x+1
(x) =
0
90
khi x 1
khi x < 1
Sputnik Education
(2.19)
91
2.3
2.3.1
X(i )P (i ).
(2.20)
Sputnik Education
e
k1 (k1)! = e e = .
k1 (k1)! = e
V d 2.14. Gi tr k vng ca phn b hnh hc P (T = k) = p(1
p)k1 l
E(T ) =
k=1
93
(2.21)
(2.22)
(2.23)
(2.24)
Sputnik Education
95
2.3.2
XdP.
(2.25)
Sputnik Education
n
X
(2.26)
(2.27)
i=0
v
J (F ) =
n
X
i=0
(2.28)
(2.29)
Z
lim
M,N +
FM,N dP
Sputnik Education
(2.30)
97
F (i ).P (i ),
(2.31)
hi t tuyt i.
Tng t nh tch phn Riemann thng thng, tch phn Lebesgue
trn khng gian xc sut c tnh cht n iu, tuyn tnh, v giao
hon vi php ly gii hn ca mt dy hm hi t u:
nh l 2.7. Gi s F, G v Fn l cc hm o c trn mt khng
gian xc sut (, P ).
98
Sputnik Education
F dP
0. Tng qut
(2.32)
nh l sau, gi l nh l hi t b chn Lebesgue (Lebesgue dominated convergence theorem), l mt nh l hay c s dng trong
vic nghin cu cc tch phn Lebesgue:
nh l 2.8 (Lebesgue). Gi s Fn : (, P ) R l mt dy hm o
c trn khng gian xc sut (, P ) tha mn hai iu kin sau:
i) |Fn | G vi mi n, trong G l mt hm kh tch trn .
ii) Fn hi t hu khp mi ni n mt hm o c F trn , c
ngha l tp cc im sao cho limn Fn () = F () c o
bng 1.
Khi ta c
Z
F dP = lim
Fn dP.
(2.33)
99
Z
Z
dP +
\An
chng minh |
F dP
ta ch cn chng minh
R
An
Z
2GdP + 2
An
Fn dP |
GdP.
An
mi . V Fn hi t hu khp mi ni n F trn , nn tp hp cc
im m nm trong v s cc tp An c o bng 0. Do P (An )
tin ti 0 khi n tin ti v cng (xem khng nh th hai ca Bi tp
R
1.22), t suy ra An GdP tin ti 0 khi n tin ti v cng.
nh l 2.6 v s bo ton gi tr k vng di nh x bo ton
xc sut c th c pht biu li di dng nh l v s bo ton
tch phn Lebesgue di dnh x bo ton xc sut:
nh l 2.9. Gi s F : (, P ) R l mt hm kh tch trn khng
gian xc sut (, P ), v : (1 , P1 ) (, P ) l mt nh x bo ton
xc sut. Khi F l hm kh tch trn (1 , P1 ) v
Z
Z
(F )dP1 =
F dP.
1
(2.34)
2.3.3
F ()dP (),
100
F dP
thnh
F ()dP ,
hoc
(2.35)
xR
iii) Nu g l mt hm s thc th
Z
Z
E(g(X)) =
g(x)dPX =
xR
g(x)X (x)dx.
(2.37)
101
(x 35000). exp
dx
E(Y ) =
2.4002
400 2 35000
Z
Z
400
x2
1
dx =
x exp
exp(z)dz
=
2.4002
400 2 0
2 0
400
= 160.
2
Bi tp 2.17. Gi s Y l mt bin ngu nhin lin tc vi hm mt
sau: Y (x) = c sin x khi x ]0, [, v Y (x) = 0 ti cc im khc.
i) Hy tnh c.
ii) Hy tnh E(Y )
iii) Th ngh mt vn c th xy ra trong thc t vi phn b xc
sut ny.
Bi tp 2.18. Tnh k vng ca phn b Pareto (2.19) vi tham s
> 1. (Khi 1 th k vng bng v cng).
102
Sputnik Education
2.3.4
Gi tr k vng hnh hc
103
ai
i ai
(2.39)
ln(X)dP ).
(2.40)
Sputnik Education
(2.41)
(2.42)
105
Sputnik Education
2.4
2.4.1
p
E((X E(X))2 ).
(2.43)
(2.44)
107
2 exp( 2 )dx = 1)
Ghi ch 2.7. i vi cc bin ngu nhin vi v hn cc gi tr, th
cc i lng c trng ca chng nh k vng, phng sai, v cc
i lng khc, khng phi lc no cng tn ti hay hu hn. V
d, phn b xc sut ri rc P (k) = C/k 2 vi mi k N, vi C =
P
1/( 1/n2 ) = 6/ 2 , khng c k vng v sai phng hu hn. Ta ch
s dng cc i lng c trng khi chng tn ti v hu hn.
Bi tp 2.20. Chng minh rng:
i) lch chun ca phn b hnh hc vi tham s p (P (k) =
108
Sputnik Education
1q
.
q
ii) lch chun ca phn b Poisson vi tham s (P (k) = e .k /k!
vi mi k Z+ ) l = .
p(1
p)k1
vi mi k N) l =
109
2.4.2
(2.45)
110
Sputnik Education
(2.46)
(2.47)
111
4
3,
4
(2.48)
112
Sputnik Education
113
Sputnik Education
2.4.3
E(X)
.
a
(2.49)
E(|X|k )
.
ak
(2.50)
Sputnik Education
115
var(X)
.
a2
(2.51)
Sputnik Education
117
2.5
(2.52)
Hm MX (y) = E(exp(yX)) c gi l hm sinh moment ca
X.
2.5.1
Hm c trng
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eisx dPX .
(2.53)
xR
1bs
X (as).
(2.54)
119
trong X l k hiu o hm bc k ca X .
Chng minh. Ba tnh cht u tin tng i hin nhin, suy ra
ngay t nh ngha. Tnh cht th t l bi tp dnh cho nhng bn
c quen vi khi nim lin tc u. chng minh tnh cht cui
cng, chng ta nh rng php ly gi tr k vng l mt php ly gi
tr trung bnh, c th hiu nh l mt php ly tng (ca mt chui),
v do n giao hon vi php ly p hm (khi mt s iu kin
hi t no c tha mn). p dng nguyn tc giao hon vo
nh ngha ca hm c trng, ta c o hm bc k ca hm c
trng l:
(k)
X (s) =
dk
dk
(s)
=
E(
exp(isX))
X
dsk
dsk
= E((iX)k exp(isX)) = ik E(X k exp(isX)). (2.55)
(k)
t s = 0, ta c X (0) = ik E(X k ).
2.5.2
120
eias eibs
PX (a) + PX (b)
X (s)ds = PX (]a, b[) +
.
is
2
(2.56)
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eisx X (x)dx.
X (s) =
(2.57)
Trong gii tch, php tnh trn gi l php bin i Fourier. C ngha
l, hm c trng chnh l bin i Fourier ca hm mt .
Chia c hai v ca cng thc (2.56) cho b a, v cho b tin ti a,
ta c cng thc sau, gi l php bin i ngc Fourier, tnh
hm mt t hm c trng:
1
F (x) =
2
eisx F (s)ds.
(2.58)
PX (k) exp(iks),
(2.59)
kZ
(2.60)
121
PY (a) + PY (b)
PX (a) + PX (b)
= PY (]a, b[) +
2
2
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123
2.5.3
(2.61)
PX (k).z k ,
(2.62)
1 dk GX (z)
v ta c P (X = k) =
k! dz k
vi mi k Z+ .
z=0
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(2.63)
exptx F (x)dx,
(2.64)
125
Ghi ch 2.11.
(4)
126
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127
Chng 3
(3.1)
128
(3.2)
129
lim
a0 a,c0 c
(3.4)
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3.1.2
lim
xk k6=i
(3.5)
P (X = xi , Y = yj ).
(3.6)
Ch rng cc phn b xc sut bin c xc nh duy nht bi
phn b xc sut ng thi, nhng iu ngc li ni chung khng
ng: Nu ta bit phn b xc sut ca hai bin ngu nhin X, Y th
khng c ngha l ta bit phn b xc sut ng thi ca chng.
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131
3.1.3
Hm mt ng thi
(3.7)
(3.8)
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(3.9)
(1/x)dx = ln y
X (x, y)dx =
x
133
X+Y (z) =
(3.11)
3.1.4
(3.12)
xRn
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n
X
si xi )dPX .
exp( 1
xRn
(3.13)
i=1
n
Y
1sk ak
T<s<T k=1
1sk
1sk bk
!
X (s)ds
(3.14)
(3.15)
135
(3.16)
3.2
3.2.1
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n
Y
P (Xi Ai ) =
i=1
n
Y
i=1
n
Y
PXi (xi )
(3.18)
i=1
vi mi x = (x1 , . . . , xn ) Rn .
Hm phn phi xc sut ca tch trc tip (R, PX1 ). . .(R, PXn )
Q
Q
chnh l hm F(x1 , . . . xn ) = ni=1 P (Xi xi ) = ni=1 FXi (xi ). Phn
b xc sut trn Rn c xc nh duy nht bi hm phn b xc sut
ca n, bi vy ta c:
nh l 3.3. Cc khng nh sau y l tng ng:
i) B n bin ngu nhin X1 , . . . , Xn l c lp.
ii) Hm phn phi xc sut ng thi FX ca X1 , . . . , Xn l tch ca
cc hm phn phi xc sut bin FXi :
FX (x1 . . . , xn ) =
n
Y
FXi (xi ),
(3.19)
i=1
n
Y
P (Fi xi ),
(3.20)
i=1
Sputnik Education
137
n
Y
Xi (si ).
(3.21)
i=1
n
Y
Xi (xi ).
(3.22)
i=1
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3.2.2
139
= x + y).P (N = x + y)
(p)x ((1 p))y
=
e v,
x!
y!
x
= y) = (p)
x! .C1 ,
= y) =
((1p))y
.C2 ,
y!
vi C1 = ep , C2 = e(1p) , v P (X = x).P (y = y) = P (X =
x, Y = y). iu c ngh l, trong trng hp ny (khi m tng
N = X + Y tun theo phn b Poisson), hai bin X v Y c lp vi
nhau!
3.2.3
Mt s h qu ca s c lp
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Xi ) =
E(Xi ),
(3.23)
var(Xi ),
(3.24)
GXi (z),
(3.25)
Xi (s).
(3.26)
ii)
var(
Xi ) =
X
i
iii)
GPi Xi (z) =
Y
i
iv)
Pi Xi (s) =
Y
i
141
P (X = h, Y = kh) =
P (X = h)P (Y = kh),
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3.3. Lut s ln
Bi tp 3.10. Tung mt con xc sc 5 ln. Dng hm sinh xc sut,
hy tnh xc sut tng cc s hin ln trong 5 ln tung l 15.
Bi tp 3.11. Gi s X1 , X2 , X3 , . . . l mt dy cc bin ngu nhin
c lp c cng mt phn b xc sut, vi k vng < 0 v phng
sai 2 < . Gi Sn = X1 + . . . + Xn l tng ca n bin ngu nhin
u tin. Dng bt ng thc Chebyschev chng minh rng, vi
mi c R, ta c limn P (Sn c) = 0
3.3
3.3.1
Lut s ln
Dng yu ca lut s ln cho phn b bt k
(3.27)
143
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3.3. Lut s ln
bc t tr chi quay vng en (trc khi tr chi ph hot ng),
v hy tnh con s ny.
3.3.2
P
lim
i=1 Xi
=
(3.29)
= 1,
Pn
hay ni cch khc, hu nh chc chn rng,
i=1 Xi
tin ti khi n
tin ti v cng.
Ghi ch 3.6. Tt nhin, dng mnh ca lut s ln mnh hn dng
yu, v bi vy cng i hi iu kin mnh hn: nu mt phn b
xc sut no tha mn lut s ln mnh, th n cng nghim nhin
tha mn lut s ln yu, tuy iu ngc li khng ng.
Trc khi chng minh nh l 3.8, ta cn hiu chnh xc ngha
ton hc caP
nh l trn, v cn c m hnh xc sut t nhin cho
n
i=1 Xi
= , tc l m t tp hp tt c cc tnh hung
s kin lim
n
n
xy ra s kin ny nh l mt tp con trong mt khng gian xc sut
no . Khng gian xc sut y s tch trc tip ca mt dy v
hn cc khng gian xc sut.
Sputnik Education
145
3.3.3
(3.30)
i=1
n
Y
Y
Y
P ( Ai ) :=
Pi (Ai ) := lim
Pi (Ai ).
i=1
i=1 Ai
i=1
(3.31)
i=1
Y
i=1
Pi (Ai ) = lim
n
Y
Pi (Ai )
i=1
Q
tn ti v khng m, bi v dy s ( ni=1 Pi (Ai ))nN l mt dy n
iu khng tng khng m. Tch ny c th bng 0 k c khi Pi (Ai ) >
0 vi mi i. Th nhng nu Pi (Ai ) > 0 vi mi i, v Pi (Ai ) = 1 vi
hu ht mi i tr mt s hu hn cc gi tr ca i, th tch ny c th
coi nh l mt tch hu hn, vi gi tr dng.
i vi cc tp con ca khng c dng tch trc tip, th xc
sut ca chng c th tnh c t xc sut ca cc tp con c dng
tch trc tip, thng qua cc tin ca xc sut. V d, xc sut ca
146
Sputnik Education
3.3. Lut s ln
hp ca hai tp con c dng tch trc tip l:
P(
Y
i
Ai
Y
Y
Y
Y
Bi ) = P ( Ai ) + P ( Bi ) P (( Ai ) ( Bi ))
Y
Y
Y
= P ( Ai ) + P ( Bi ) P ( (Ai Bi ))
i
Pi (Ai ) +
Pi (Bi )
Pi (Ai Bi ).
Y
(R, Pi )
(3.32)
i=1
(3.33)
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147
1
n
Pn
i=1 Xi
= } trong RN . nh l
P (A) = 0,
trong A = RN \ {(xi )iN RN | limn
1
n
Pn
i=1 Xi
= }.
3.3.4
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3.3. Lut s ln
Chng minh ca b trn l bi tp dnh cho bn c.
Gi s X1 , X2 , X3 , . . . l mt dy v hn cc bin c lp c cng
mt phn b xc sut vi k vng bng v E(X14 ) hu hn, nh
trong nh l 3.8. t Yi = Xi ( chuyn nh l v trng hp
vi k vng bng 0). D thy rng, iu kin E(X14 ) hu hn tng
ng vi iu kin moment trung tm bc 4 4 = E(Y14 ) hu hn,
v suy ra iu kin phng sai 2 = E(Y12 ) hu hn.
B 3.10. Vi mi n N ta c
n
X
E((
Yi )4 ) = n4 + 3n(n 1) 4 Cn2 ,
(3.35)
i=1
n
X
Yi )4 =
i=1
n
X
Yi4 + 6
i=1
Yi2 Yj2 + 4
i<j
Yi3 Yj
i6=j
+6
Yi2 Yj Yk +
i6=j6=k
Yi Yj Yk Yl .
i6=j6=k6=l
i=1
i<j
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149
1X
1
Ck
P (|
Yi | ) < 2
n
k
n
(3.36)
i=1
vi mi n N.
B 3.11 suy ra trc tip t b 3.10 v bt ng thc Markov.
B 3.12. Vi mi k N tn ti mt s mk N sao cho, t
n
Bk =
(|
nmk
1X
1
Yi | ),
n
k
(3.37)
i=1
ta c
P (Bk ) <
1
.
2k
(3.38)
X
1
.
s
n2
n=1
P
Nhc li rng, A l s kin n1 ni=1 Yi khng tin ti 0 khi n tin
ti v cng, v nh l 3.8 tng ng vi khng nh P (A) = 0.
t
Ak =
(3.39)
Bh .
h>k
B 3.13. Ta c
A Ak v P (Ak ) <
vi mi k N.
150
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1
2k
(3.40)
3.4
3.4.1
(3.41)
(3.42)
151
(3.43)
3.4.2
H s tng quan
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cov(F, G)
.
(F )(G)
(3.44)
(3.45)
(3.46)
153
ai bi )2 (
X
a2i ).(
bi )2 .
(3.47)
(3.48)
i<j
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Sputnik Education
155
Sputnik Education
Hnh 3.2: Trng lng c lng bng soi siu m v trng lng
thc t
(2)
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157
3.4.3
(3.49)
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E((Y aXb)2 )
a
E((Y aXb)2 )
b
(3.50)
cov(X, Y )
var(X)
v b = E(Y ) aE(X), bi vy y l im cc tiu ca E((Y aX
ng thng y = ax + b vi cc h s a =
cov(X,Y )
var(X)
v b = E(Y )
159
homicide and suicide, Can. Med. Assoc. J. 1993, 148 (10), 17211725
160
Sputnik Education
n mng
T st
% gia nh c sng
Australia
19,5
115,8
19,6
Belgium
18,5
231,5
18,6
Canada
26,0
139,4
29,1
6,7
86,1
4,7
Finland
29,6
253,5
23,2
France
12,5
223, 0
22,6
The Netherlands
11,8
117,2
1,9
Northern Ireland
46,6
82,7
8,4
Norway
12,1
142,7
32,0
Scotland
16,3
105,1
4,7
Spain
13,7
64,5
13,1
Switzerland
11,7
244,5
27,2
United States
75,9
124,0
48,0
West Germany
12,1
203,7
8,9
3.4.4
161
Xem: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/08/090811080751.htm
Xem trang web http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation
162
Sputnik Education
Hnh 3.3: Tai nn giao thng cht ngi v chanh ti nhp khu
nhng nm 1996-2000, v s qu chanh nhp khu sang M t Mexico. Tuy nhin ngi ta c th t hi: hai bin th lin quan g vi
nhau ?!
3.5
163
3.5.1
Trng hp ri rc
P (X A, Y = y)
P (Y = y)
(3.51)
P (X x, Y = y)
.
P (Y = y)
(3.52)
xdPX|Y =y .
(3.53)
xR
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xi .PX|Y =y (xi ) =
xi .P (X = xi |Y = y),
(3.54)
PX,Y (xi , y)
P (X = xi , Y = y)
=
.
vi P (X = xi |Y = y) =
P (Y = y)
PY (y)
V d 3.10. Gi s X v Y l hai bin ngu nhin c lp vi phn
b Poisson vi cc tham s v tng ng. Chng ta s tnh phn
b xc sut c iu kin ca X vi iu kin X + Y cho trc, tc l
tnh P (X = k|X + Y = k + m). Tng X + Y cng c phn b Poisson
vi tham s + . Bi vy,
P (X = k|X + Y = k + m) =
=
P (X = k, Y = m)
P (X + Y = k + m)
k m
k! e
m! e
k+m
(+)
(+)
(k+m)! e
(k + m)! k m
k!m! ( + )k+m
k
= Ck+m
(
m
k
) (1
)
+
+
Ni cch khc, t r = k + m, ta c
PX|X+Y =r (k) = Crk (
k
rk
) (1
) ,
+
+
tham s r v +
. T suy ra E(X|X + Y = r) =
.
+
K vng c iu kin c th c dng tnh k vng khng
iu kin qua cng thc sau:
nh l 3.19. Gi s Y l mt bin ngu nhin ri rc v X l mt
Sputnik Education
165
(3.55)
Xy , vi Xy = X khi m Y =
V d 3.11. Gi s mt ca hng bn mt loi chi c bit. Mi
khch hng trong ngy c xc sut mua chi c bit l p, v cc
quyt nh mua ca cc khch hng l c lp vi nhau. S khch
hng trong ngy l mt s ngu nhin N tun theo phn b Poisson
vi tham s . Gi K l s khch hng mua chi c bit trong
ngy. Chng ta mun tnh E(K|N = n) v E(K). Cc gi s pha trn
cho bit P (N = n) = n e /n! (phn b Poisson), v PK|N (k|n) =
Cnk pk (1 p)k (phn b nh thc). T suy ra E(K|N = n) = pn, v
P
P
E(K) = n E(K|N = n)P (N = n) = p n nP (N = n) = pE(N ) =
p.
Bi tp 3.17. Chng minh rng, trong v d 3.11, bin K tun theo
phn b Poisson vi tham s p, v E(N |K = k) = k + (1 p).
Bi tp 3.18. Gi s X c phn b m vi tham s > 0. Gi s Y l
bin ngu nhin sao cho khi X = x th Y c phn b u trn on
thng [0, x]. Hy tnh E(Y ).
166
Sputnik Education
3.5.2
Trng hp lin tc
(3.56)
nu nh gii hn trn tn ti. Trong trng hp ri rc, c th chng
minh rng gii hn trn lun tn ti v cho kt qu trng vi nh
ngha thng thng. y chng ta s ch quan tm n nhng
trng hp lin tc tt sao cho gii hn trn tn ti.
Gi s vector ngu nhin (X, Y ) c hm mt ng thi X,Y
v cc hm mt bin X , Y . Khi ta c th vit:
P (X x|Y = y) = lim P (X x|y Y y + ) =
0+
R x R y+
X,Y (t, s)ds)dt
P (X x, y Y y + )
( y
= lim
=
= lim
R x+
0+
0+
P ( Y y + )
Y (s)ds
x
Rx
R y+
lim
(
X,Y (t, s)ds/)dt Z x X,Y (t, y)
0+
y
dt,
=
=
R x+
Y (y)
lim0+ (
Y (s)ds/)
v bi vy, ta c:
Mnh 3.20. Trong trng hp lin tc tuyt i, nu Y (y) > 0 th
hm mt ca phn b xc sut c iu kin PX|Y =y chnh l hm
X|Y (x|y) := X|Y =y (x) =
X,Y (x, y)
.
Y (y)
Sputnik Education
(3.57)
167
xdPX|Y =y =
xX|Y (x|y)dx.
(3.58)
FX (x) = P (X x) =
(3.59)
ii)
E(X) =
(3.60)
Sputnik Education
3.6
3.6.1
(3.61)
169
(3.62)
m
X
aik Zk + i i = 1, . . . , n.
(3.63)
k=1
Sputnik Education
3.6.2
m
X
a1i Zi + 1 , X2 =
i=1
m
X
a2i Zi + 1 ,
(3.64)
i=1
a21k , 12 = 21 =
a1k a2k , 22 =
a22k .
(3.65)
171
(3.66)
X1 = 1 Z + 1
X2 = 2 Z + 2
(3.67)
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1
1
(3.68)
(3.69)
173
1 r
r 1
(3.71)
3.6.3
1
(2)n/2 ||1/2
1
exp( (x ).1 .(x )t ).
2
Sputnik Education
(3.72)
1
(s) = exp( 1.st s..st ).
2
(3.73)
1
.
(1 + x2 )
Sputnik Education
(3.74)
175
1
1
exp(
(x2 2rxy + y 2 )).
2
2(1
r)2
2 1 r
1
1
+
arcsin r.
4 2
176
Sputnik Education
Chng 4
Cc nh l gii hn
4.1
nh l gii hn trung tm
4.1.1
nh l de Moivre Laplace
n!
pk (1 p)nk
k!(n k)!
(4.1)
Chng 4. Cc nh l gii hn
p
np(1 p).
(4.2)
Khi
1
1
Pn (k) = p
exp( z 2 ).(1 + n (k)),
2
2 np(1 p)
trong n (k) hi t u n 0 khi n tin ti , c ngha l
lim sup n (k) = 0.
n k
178
Sputnik Education
(4.3)
n+
n!
2n
n n
e
= 1.
(4.4)
lim P
! Z
b
1
Sn pn
2
ex /2 dx.
b =
a p
2
np(1 p)
a
(4.5)
Sputnik Education
179
Chng 4. Cc nh l gii hn
dng nh l 4.1, ta c:
P
!
X
Sn pn
a p
b =
Pn (k)
np(1 p)
azb
X
1
1
=
n exp( z 2 ).(1 + n (k)), (4.6)
2
2
azb
1
bng bc nhy ca z trong tng pha
trong n = p
np(1 p)
trn. Bi vy, theo nh ngha tch phn Riemann, ta c
1
1
lim
n exp( z 2 ) =
n
2
2
azb
X
1
2
ex /2 dx,
2
(4.7)
15, 1811
2
np(1 p)
Sputnik Education
4.1.2
nh l gii hn trung tm
181
Chng 4. Cc nh l gii hn
cng khi n tin ti v cng, v nh vy th n khng th tin ti mt
phn b cho trc no . Nhc h qu sau y ca s c lp ca
cc bin Xi :
E(Sn ) =
n
X
E(Xi ) = n, var(Sn ) =
i=1
t Zn =
n
X
var(Xi ) = n 2
(4.8)
i=1
Sn n
, ta c
n
E(Zn ) = 0, var(Zn ) = 1.
(4.9)
Sn n
,
n
ta c th a bin ngu nhin Sn v mt bin ngu nhin Zn c k
Pn
i)
i=1 X
Sputnik Education
(4.10)
lim P (a Zn b) =
1
2
ex /2 dx.
2
(4.11)
P
( n
Xi )n
i=1
.
n
183
Chng 4. Cc nh l gii hn
Sputnik Education
185
Chng 4. Cc nh l gii hn
4.1.3
Gii hn ca dy hm c trng
(4.13)
s i=1 Xi
Zn (s) = exp
n
n
Y
n
1n
s
= exp
s
Xi
n
n
i=1
n
1n
s
= exp
s
X1
,
n
n
do
s
1n
s + n ln X1
ln(Zn (s)) =
n
n
trong t =
186
Sputnik Education
1
1t 2 t2 + o(t2 ),
2
1
ln(Zn (s)) = 1nt + n( 1t 2 t2 + o(t2 ))
2
1
1
= n 2 t2 + no(t2 ) = s2 + no(t2 ).
2
2
Khi n tin ti v cng th no(t2 ) =
s2
o(t2 )/t2
2
tin ti 0, do
1
1
= exp( lim s2 + no(t2 )) = exp( s2 ),
n 2
2
l iu phi chng minh.
1
2
ex /2 dx.
2
Sputnik Education
(4.15)
187
Chng 4. Cc nh l gii hn
Mnh trn l mt trng hp ring ca nh l lin tc 4.11 v
tiu chun hi t yu ca cc phn b xc sut, m chng ta s bn
n trong phn sau.
4.2
4.2.1
Hi t yu v cc kiu hi t khc
Hi t yu v hi t theo phn phi
(4.16)
Pn P , Fn F .
(4.17)
Sputnik Education
189
Chng 4. Cc nh l gii hn
Chng ta s k hiu s hi t theo phn phi nh sau:
d
Zn Z,
(4.18)
(4.19)
hoc l
Zn PZ .
Zn N (0, 1)
(4.20)
Sputnik Education
4.2.2
Sputnik Education
191
Chng 4. Cc nh l gii hn
ii) Khong cch LvyProkhorov gia PX v PY l i lng
dLP (PX , PY ) = inf{ > 0 | PX (A) PY (A ) + v
PY (A) PX (A ) + A B(R)}, (4.22)
trong B(R) l i s Borel trn R, v
A = {x R | y A sao cho |x y| < }
(4.23)
l ln cn ca A trong R.
iii) Khong cch KolmogorovSmirnov gia PX v PY l i lng
dKS (PX , PY ) = sup |FX (x) FY (x)|.
(4.24)
xR
Sputnik Education
193
Chng 4. Cc nh l gii hn
nh l 4.9. Mt dy cc phn b xc sut Pn hi t theo metric
d1 (hay l metric dLP ) n mt phn b xc sut P (c ngha l
limn d1 (Pn , P ) = 0) khi v ch khi Pn hi t yu P khi n tin ti
v cng. Ni cch khc, s hi t yu trng vi s hi t theo metric d1
v trng vi s hi t theo metric Lvy-Prokhorov.
Chng minh.
i)iu kin cn. Gi s c mt im lin tc x0 ca F sao cho
Fn (x0 ) khng hi t n F (x0 ). Khi tn ti mt hng s c > 0 v
mt dy s t nhin nk tin ti v cng sao cho |Fnk (x0 )F (x0 )| >
c vi mi k N. Ta s gi s F (x0 )Fnk (x0 ) > c vi mi k. (Trng
hp c th chn Fnk (x0 ) F (x0 ) > c vi mi k hon ton tng
t). Do tnh lin tc ca F ti x0 , tn ti > 0 nh sao cho
F (x0 ) F (x) < c/2 vi mi x [x0 , x0 ]. Do cc hm phn b
xc sut l hm tnh tin tng, ta c Fnk (x) Fnk (x0 ) vi mi x
[x0 , x0 ], t suy ra F (x)Fnk (x) > c/2 vi mi x [x0 , x0 ],
Rx
v do tn ti mt hng s dng C = x00 (c/2)e|x| dx > 0, sao
cho d(Pnk , P ) > C vi mi k. iu c ngha l d(Pn , P ) khng
tin ti 0 khi n tin ti v cng.
ii) iu kin . Gi s F (x) = limn Fn (x) ti mi im
lin tc ca F . Gi s > 0 l mt s dng ty . Nhc li rng
hm F l mt hm n iu khng gim b chn, v tp cc im
khng lin tc ca F l hu hn hoc m c. Ta c th chn
mt dy hu hn x0 < x1 < . . . < xN cc im lin tc ca F sao
R x0 |x|
R
cho
e
dx < , xN e|x| dx < , v vi mi k = 0, 1, . . . , N
1 ta c hoc l 0 F (xk+1 ) F (xk ) < /(xN x0 ) hoc l
0 < xk+1 xk < /N . Gi I l tp cc ch s k tha mn 0
194
Sputnik Education
d(Pn , P ) =
vi
x0
Z
An =
R
<
Cn =
R xN
x0
2
xN x0 dx
= 2,
kJ
xi
R xi+1
2
kIZ xi
xN x0 dx
x
i+1
X
xi
kJ (xk+1
195
Chng 4. Cc nh l gii hn
4.2.3
(4.25)
Sputnik Education
4.2.4
nh l lin tc
(4.26)
(4.27)
(4.28)
Sputnik Education
197
Chng 4. Cc nh l gii hn
vi mi n ln. Tn ti R R+ sao cho R v R l hai im lin
tc ca F , v
(4.29)
Z
F dP < /6,
]R,+[
(4.30)
Z
F dPn < /6
]R,+[
(4.31)
v
Z
F dPn < /6 ,
],R]
(4.32)
Sputnik Education
N Z
X
i=1
]ai1 ,ai ]
N Z
X
i=1
(/9)dPn
]ai1 ,ai ]
Z
1dPn /9 (4.33)
= (/9)
]R,R]
exp( 1sx)dPX
(4.35)
199
Chng 4. Cc nh l gii hn
trng ca cc phn b xc sut l b chn bi 1: |n (s)| 1 vi mi
s R. Bi vy, theo nh l hi t b chn Lebesgue, ta c
Z
Z
lim
n (s)ds =
(s)ds
n
(4.36)
ca P ti mi im. Th nhng n hi t n , bi vy hm t
trng ca P chnh l . V mi phn b xc sut c xc nh duy
nht bng hm c trng ca n, nn P chnh l P . C ngha l c
mt dy con ca (Pn ) hi t yu n P . Nhng khi , ton b dy
(Pn ) phi hi t yu n P , v nu khng, tng t nh trn, s
dng nh l Prokhorov, ta s tm c mt dy con ca (Pn ) hi t
yu n mt phn b xc sut P khc P , nhng P li c hm c
trng trng vi hm c trng ca P , l iu khng th xy ra.
Ghi ch 4.4. nh l pha trn c gi l nh l lin tc, v n khng
nh rng nh x t cc hm c trng vo cc phn b xc sut
tng ng l mt nh x lin tc. N l mt phn ca nh l lin
200
Sputnik Education
sin(x)
dPX
x
xR
Z
sin(x)
sin(x)
dPX +
dPX
x
x
|x|2/
|x|>2/
X (s)ds =
Z
=
(4.38)
201
Chng 4. Cc nh l gii hn
4.2.5
(4.39)
(4.40)
Sputnik Education
(4.41)
4.3
Phn b 2 v nh l Pearson
(4.42)
203
Chng 4. Cc nh l gii hn
Phn b 2 hay xut hin trong nhng bi ton thng k, m
chng ta s xt n chng sau. N lin quan n vic c lng
phng sai ca mt phn b xc sut normal. ng thi, n ng vai
tr rt quan trng trong vic kim nh cc gi thuyt v dng iu
cc phn b xc sut, qua ci gi l kim nh 2 (chi-square test).
C s ca kim nh 2 l nh l gii hn sau y ca Karl Pearson:
nh l 4.15 (Pearson). Gi s X l mt bin ngu nhin nhn hu
hn cc gi tr x1 , . . . , xs vi cc xc sut PX (xi ) = pi > 0 tng ng
P
( si=1 pi = 1). Gi s X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn , . . . l mt dy cc bin ngu
nhin c lp v c cng phn phi xc sut vi X. Vi mi n, gi
i = i,n l bin ngu nhin sau: i l s ln xut hin gi tr xi trong
P
dy X1 , . . . , Xn . ( si=1 i = n). Khi
k
X
(i npi )2
i=1
npi
s
X
(i npi )2
i=1
npi
2s1 ,
(4.43)
Sputnik Education
nE(X) d
Z1 (trong
n(X)
Z1 c phn b normal chun tc N (0, 1)), v do
Pn
i=1Xi
nE(X)
n(X)
i=1Xi
2
21 .
Ps
i=1 (1
pi )G2i c
205
Chng 4. Cc nh l gii hn
Ma trn hip phng sai suy bin (bi v
Ps
p
pi (1 pi )Gi =
i=1
j=1,...,s1
(G1 , . . . , Gs )t = (aij )i=1,...,s
.(Z1 , . . . , Zs1 )t .
(4.45)
tn ti bi v si=1 ( pi )2 = 1. t
oij
aij =
vi mi i = 1, . . . , s, j = 1, . . . , s 1.
1 pi
(4.46)
Gi =
s1
X
j=1
206
oij
Zj vi mi i = 1, . . . , s,
1 pi
Sputnik Education
(4.47)
2
s1
X
o
ij
(1 pi )G2i =
(1 pi )
Zj
1
pi
i=1
i=1
j=1
s
s1
X
X
X
=
o2ij Zj2 +
oij oik Zj Zk
s
X
s
X
i=1
j=1
j6=k
s1 X
s
s
s1
X
XX
X
(
o2ij )Zj2 +
(
oik )Zj Zk =
Zj2 (4.48)
j=1 i=1
j6=k i=1
j=1
r 1 x
1
2
x
e 2 khi x > 0
r/2
2 (r/2)
,
(4.49)
(x) =
0
khi x 0
trong l hm gamma: (a) =
R
0
xa1 ex dx.
207
Chng 4. Cc nh l gii hn
Hnh 4.3: Hm mt ca 2k , vi k = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
208
Sputnik Education
Sputnik Education
209
Chng 5
Thng k ton hc
5.1
Cc vn thng k
5.1. Cc vn thng k
php thng k nh l cc cch nu n, rt a dng phong ph), v
c nhiu im cn ch khi dn n cc kt lun thng k sai
lch (hoc l b mc la bi nhng ngi c tnh lm thng k theo
cc phng php sai lch). Trong chng ny chng ta s ch bn ti
mt s vn v phng php thng k ton hc c bn nht. Trc
khi i vo l thuyt, phn ny chng ta s im qua cc mc ch
chnh trn ca thng k, qua mt s v d.
211
Sputnik Education
5.1. Cc vn thng k
3 3 = 9 ln thng 5.
V d 5.2. (Pht xt c sn xut bao nhiu my bay v xe c gii ?).
Trong chin tranh, vic c lng c ng sc mnh ca qun ch
l mt vic nhiu khi c tnh cht sng cn. Trong chin tranh th gii
ln th II, cc c quan tnh bo qun ng minh Anh-M cung cp
nhiu thng tin rt sai lch v lc lng qun c. Th nhng, bng
phng php thng k (thu nht cc m s trn cc xc my bay, lp
xe, v.v. ca qun c b bn chy, b ri, ri t gii m v dng
cc hm c lng c lng), nh thng k hc Richard Ruggles
cng vi cc cng s ca mnh, lc lm ti Cc tnh bo kinh t
ca Anh, c lng c rt chnh xc s my bay v xe c gii
m c sn xut c hng thng.(1)
Cng sut hng thng ca Pht xt c
My bay
Xe c gii
c lng ca Ruggles
28500
147000
26400
159000
to Economic Intelligence in World War II, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 42, March 1947; v theo: James Tobin, In memoriam: Richard Ruggles
(19162001) Review of Income and Wealth Series 47, Number 3, September 2001
Sputnik Education
213
Completers
---------------------------EQUIP (OB-302)
Placebo
Qnexa
Qnexa
Low Dose
Full Dose
---------------------------Placebo
Qnexa
Qnexa
Low Dose
Full Dose
56 Weeks
(n=498)
(n=234)
(n=498)
(n=241)
(n=138)
(n=301)
--------------
-------
--------
---------
-------
--------
---------
1.6%
5.1%*
11.0%*
2.5%
7.0%*
14.7%*
17%
45%*
67%*
26%
59%*
84%*
Mean Weight
Loss (%)
Greater than
or equal to
5% weight
loss rate
Theo bng trn, tng s ngi tham gia th nghim lm sng (trong
th nghim ) l 498 + 234 + 498 = 1300 ngi. t th nghim ko
di 56 tun, nhng c nhng ngi b d gia chng: trong s 498
ngi c nhn placebo (trng ging nh vin thuc tht, nhng
(2)
Ngun: http://ir.vivus.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=407933
214
Sputnik Education
5.1. Cc vn thng k
khng c thuc trong ) th ch c 241 ngi theo n cng cuc
th nghim, cn trong s 498 ngi c nhn liu y ca thuc,
c 301 ngi (61%) theo n cng. Trong s nhng ngi c nhn
liu v theo n cng, th c 84% s ngi gim c t nht 5%
trng lng, v trung bnh mi ngi gim c 14,7% trng lng.
Trong bng trn c vit p < 0, 0001 vs. placebo. iu c ngha
l, vi tin cy bng 1 p > 99, 99% (hay ni cch khc, vi kh
nng kt lun sai lm nh hn 0, 01%), cc con s thng k cho thy
kt qu t c ( y l gim cn) tt hn khi c thuc so vi khi
khng c thuc. Thng thng, khi p < 0, 01 th ngi ta chp nhn
gi thuyt l thuc c hiu ng thc s, cn nu p 0, 05 th hiu
ng khng r rng, c th l do ngu nhin.
Cc hng dc phm trn th gii, trc khi c quyn bn mt
loi thuc mi no , thng thng u phi qua th nghim lm
sng din rng (trn t nht my trm bnh nhn), v cc kt qu
thng k phi chng t r rng cng dng v s an ton ca thuc,
tc l phi qua c kim nh thng k cho gi thuyt thuc c
cng dng v an ton, vi tin cy cao.
V d 5.4. (London nguy him hay an ton ?(3) ). Ngy 10/07/2008,
c 4 v git ngi bng dao 4 ni khc nhau London. S kin ny
lm no lon d lun n mc th tng Anh l Gordon Brown phi
tuyn b ha s tm cch lm gim cc v m dao. London c tr
nn nguy him cho tnh mng hn nhng nm trc khng ? tr
li cu hi , chng ta c th da trn mt s s liu thng k sau:
- Trong 5 nm trc , mi nm London c khong 170 ngi b
(3)
Sputnik Education
215
Sputnik Education
5.1. Cc vn thng k
lng v n mng xy ra London, v khng h chng t xu th g
mi. Tng kt nm 2008, London c 152 n mng xy ra nm .
Phng tin truyn thng c dp vui mng v lu ri cha nm
no London c an ton nh vy. Nhng con s c chng t xu
th g khng, hay chng qua cng ch l mt s ngu nhin khng
nm ngoi qui lut chung ?
217
(4)
recognition, in: Proceedings IMA-IP: Mathematical Methods, Algorithms, and Applications, (Blackledge and Turner eds.), Horwood, London, 2000, pages 244260.
218
Sputnik Education
5.1. Cc vn thng k
Mt iu cn ch l, thng k hay b cc t chc hay c nhn
lm dng bp mo s tht theo hng c li cho mnh, hoc c
khi t di mnh, nu nh lm khng ng cch. C rt nhiu cch
ni di khc nhau bng thng k, chng hn nh: ba t cc con
s khng c tht, la chn cc con s c li, giu i cc con s bt
li, thin lch (bias) trong vic chn mu th nghim, v.v. V d v
ni gii trng trn: B quc phng M c tuyn b rng, trong cuc
chin vi Irak nm 1991, cc tn la Patriot ca M bn rng 41
tn la Scud ca Irak, nhng khi Quc hi M iu tra li thy ch c
4 tn la Scud b bn rng. V d v bias lm hng kt qu thng k:
Bo Literacy Digest thm d kin c tri v bu c tng thng M
nm 1936, qua in thoi v qua cc c gi t bo. Kt qu thm
d trn phm vi rt rng cho d on l Landon s c 370 phiu
(i c tri) cn Roosevelt s ch c 161 phiu. Th nhng lc bu
tht th Roosevelt thng. Ho ra, i tng m Literacy Digest thm
d nm , nhng ngi c tin t in thoi hay t bo, l nhng
ngi thuc tng lp kh gi, c bias theo pha Landon (ng Cng
ha), khng c trng cho ton dn chng M.
Ni chung, thng k ton hc cho ra c cc kt qu ng
tin cy, ngoi cc cng thc ton hc ng n, cn cn m bo s
trung thc ca cc s liu, c mu thc nghim (lng s liu)
ln, v loi i c nh hng ca cc bias m bo tnh ngu
nhin ca s liu. Nhiu khi vic loi i cc kt qu c bias cao t
mu thc nghim l cng vic hiu qu, cho ra kt lun thng k
chnh xc v tn km hn l tng c ca mu thc nghim ln
thm nhiu. chng ny, chng ta s ch bn n mt s phng
Sputnik Education
219
5.2
5.2.1
Sputnik Education
221
1X
xi .
n
(5.1)
i=1
Gi tr
c gi l mt k vng thc nghim (hay k vng mu)
ca X, v l mt c lng ca k vng ca X. Tng t nh vy,
vi mi k N, gi tr
1X k
xi ,
n
(5.2)
i=1
i=1
i=1
i=1
1X
1X
1X 2
=
(xi
)2 =
(xi
xi ) ,
n
n
n
2
222
Sputnik Education
(5.3)
5.2.2
Hm c lng
(5.4)
223
(5.5)
224
Sputnik Education
(5.6)
(5.7)
X=
1X
Xi
n
(5.8)
i=1
(5.9)
225
(5.10)
5.2.3
Pn
2
n
1X
i=1 Xi
Xi
l mt c
Hm phng sai mu =
n
n
2
i=1
E( ) = E
Sputnik Education
(5.11)
i=1
5.2.4
Phng php hp l cc i
227
(5.12)
(5.13)
228
Sputnik Education
(5.14)
(5.15)
Sputnik Education
229
1
,
(b a)n
(5.16)
(5.17)
Sputnik Education
(5.18)
n
X
xi /n.
(5.19)
i=1
(xi )2
1
exp
L(, ) =
2 2
2
i=1
!
n
n
X
(xi )2
1
exp
=
. (5.20)
2 2
2
i=1
d
L(, ) =
d
n
d
d X
0 v
L(, ) = 0. Phng trnh th nht tng ng vi
(xi
d
d
i=1
Pn
i=1 xi
)2 = 0, v cho nghim l =
. Phng trnh th hai
n
P
2 i (xi )2
n
tng ng vi,
+
= 0, v cho nghim l 2 =
2 3
P
2
i (xi )
. Nh vy, phng php hp l cc i cho ta cc c
n
lng sau y ca k vng v phng sai 2 :
Pn
xi
= i=1 ,
(5.21)
n
Sputnik Education
231
=
xi
.
(xi
) =
n
n
n
2
i=1
(5.22)
i=1
5.2.5
xs dP =
1X s
xi
n
(5.23)
i=1
Sputnik Education
x1 nu 0 < x < 1
0 ti cc im cn li
(5.24)
5.3
5.3.1
(5.25)
233
R
trong L(x, ) = P (x) trong trng hp P l phn b xc xut ri
rc v L(x, ) = (x) trong trng hp P l phn b lin tc vi hm
mt , c gi l lng thng tin Fisher ng vi .
nh l 5.4 (Bt ng thc CramrRao). Vi mi hm c lng
khng chch ca ta c
E(|(X1 , . . . , Xn ) |2 )
1
.
nI()
(5.27)
Sputnik Education
(5.28)
(1 + b0 ())2
.
nI()
(5.29)
Z
(x, )
Chng ta cn iu kin khng k d sau:
dx = 0 (ngoi
Z
p
ln (, x) p
((X) ) (, x)
(, x)dx = 1.
Sputnik Education
235
Z
p
((X) ) (, x))2 dx)(
ln (, x) p
(, x))2 dx) =
5.3.2
(5.30)
Sputnik Education
=
Z=
c phn b normal chun tc, trong l
0.05
/ 100
k vng di ca cc qu da chut tnh theo cm. t p = 1%, ta
c |Z| 2.57, c ngha l P (|Z| 2.57) 99% = 11%. Bt ng
(9.3 )
thc |
| 2.57 tng ng vi [9.3 2.57 0.05, 9.3 +
0.05
2.57 0.05] [9.17, 9.43]. Nh vy, [9.17, 9.43] l khong tin cy ca
vi tin cy 99%.
Ghi ch 5.6. C mt vn t nh trong l lun trong v d trn,
lin quan n xc sut c iu kin. Sai s m chng ta tnh c l
2.57 0.05 0.13 vi tin cy 99%, c ngha l
P (|X | < 0.13 | c nh) 99%,
nhng sau ta li mun hiu iu ny thnh: X = 9.3 l ci bit
c sau thc nghim, l ci cha bit, c th coi nh mt bin
ngu nhin, v
P (|X | < 0.13 | X = 9.3) 99%.
Sputnik Education
237
Sputnik Education
X p
< c) FN (0,1) (c) = PN (0,1) (] , c[).
/ n
p(1 p),
5.3.3
239
(5.31)
2
20
< 30.14) 1 5% 5% = 90%.
2
Sputnik Education
(5.32)
tng ng vi
(5.33)
(5.34)
5.3.4
Phn b Student
p
2
lun rng phn b xc sut ca /n (hay ca , trong
/ n
241
242
Sputnik Education
( +1
1
2 )
.
( 2 ) (1 + x2 ) +1
2
(5.36)
243
(5.37)
< 1.729,
|(X ) 20 1/|
(5.38)
(5.39)
vi tin cy 90%.
Bi tp 5.9. Gi s c mt loi xe t mi, cho 5 ngi chy th 5 xe
khc nhau trn ng cao tc, vi kt qu chy 100km ht ln lt
l 4.53, 3.82, 4.37, 3.91, 4.16 lt xng. Tm khong tin cy cho s lt
xng tiu tn trung bnh ca loi xe ny cho 100km ng cao tc,
vi tin cy 90%.
244
Sputnik Education
5.4
Kim nh cc gi thuyt
245
5.4.1
Sputnik Education
hoc l
P = P (s ng. c bu l nam N | x.s. ng. c bu l n = 50%),
247
hoc l
P (s ng. c bu l nam = N | x.s. ng. c bu l n = 50%),
(5.40)
Sputnik Education
nhn gi thuyt H0 .
Gi tr P pha trn c th coi l xc sut xy ra sai lm loi 1.
N thch hp cho nhng trng hp m sai lm loi 1 l ci cn ch
n (hn so vi sai lm loi 2). Nu cn ch n sai lm loi 2,
th phi tnh xc sut xy ra sai lm loi 2, thay v xc sut xy
ra sai lm loi 1. (Phng php lm hon ton tng t).
Bi tp 5.10. (Tui ly chng Roma thi c i). C mt l thuyt
ca cc nh kho c hc cho rng, tui ly chng ln u trung bnh
Roma thi c i l khong 19 tui, v l cc m ph n m c
vn bia (epitaph) l do ngi cha vit th tui trung bnh di 19,
con do chng vit th tui trung bnh trn 19. (Ngi ta gi thuyt
rng ph n c chng khi cht th vn bia do chng vit, cn cha
c chng th do cha vit). Th nhng, theo mt ghi chp lch s, tui
ly chng ln u ca 26 ph n Roma c i c ghi l: 11, 12,
12, 12, 12, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 14, 14, 14, 14, 14, 14, 15, 15, 15, 15,
15, 15, 16, 16, 17, 17(6) . Gi H0 l gi thuyt tui ly chng trung
bnh Roma c i l 19, v gi s rng tui ly chng c phn b
normal, vi lch chun coi bng lch chun mu ca mu thc
nghim vi 26 gi tr trn, tc l bng 1.57. Chng minh rng gi tr
P nh hn 1% (Gi : c th dng bt ng thc Chebyschev).
(6)
Theo: A. Lelis, W. Percy, B. Verstraete, The age of first mariage in ancient Rome,
Sputnik Education
249
5.4.2
X 0
X 0
,
hoc l Z =
/ n
/ n
(5.41)
trong :
i) X l gi tr trung bnh ca mt mu thc nghim c n ca mt bin
ngu nhin X
ii) Gi thuyt y l v k vng = E(X) ca X. Gi thuyt H0 l
= 0 , v i thuyt l 6= 0 (hoc l H0 : 0 , H1 : > 0 ;
hoc l H0 : 0 , H1 : < 0 ).
iii) Hoc l X c gi s l c phn b normal vi lch chun
bit trc, hoc l n ln sao cho c th coi l Z c phn b normal
chun tc, v thay v dng ta dng
, trong
2 l phng sai thc
nghim (cho bi cng thc (5.3)).
Tng t nh vy, c th nh ngha kim nh T cho gi tr k
250
Sputnik Education
X 0
, v coi rng T c
n
/
(5.42)
251
100(X E(X))
10(X E(X))
=
l mt bin ngu nhin vi
(X)
(X)
phn b normal chun tc N (0, 1). Khi X c tng ng vi
Z=
10(cE(X))
.
(X)
10(c 7)
)
1.5
(5.43)
10(c7)
1.5 .
t = 1%, ta c
10(c7)
1.5
2.33, tc l
Sputnik Education
5.4.3
X / nX
Y /nY
X
nX
Sputnik Education
Y
nY
253
X
nX
(5.44)
Y
nY
Sputnik Education
(1189/11034).189/11034
11034
104
11037
5.
(1104/11037).104/11037
11037
X
nY
X Y
.
2 q n +n
+ nXY . nXX+nY Y2
(5.45)
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255
Sputnik Education
5.4.4
257
n2m
2m /m
=
2n /n
m2n
(5.46)
c gi l phn b F vi m v n bc t do.
Kim nh dng phn b F so snh lch chun gi l kim
nh F. Ta gi s rng X v Y c phn b normal vi lch chun
1 v 2 tng ng. Gi thuyt H0 l 1 = 2 Gi S12 v S22 l cc
hm phng sai mu hiu chnh ca X v Y vi c thc nghim n1
v n2 tng ng. Nu 1 = 2 th S12 /S22 c phn b F vi n1 1 v
n2 1 bc t do.
Ghi ch 5.8. Phn b F c gi nh vy l theo ch ci u ca tn
ca Ronald Fisher. Kim nh F ch thch hp khi cc phn b ca X
v Y l normal hoc rt gn ging normal (n khng c robust
lm, khi phn b chch i khi normal).
V d 5.20. (Cch o lng no chnh xc hn). Gi s c hai cch
o hm lng cht arsenic trong t. Mi cch c th 10 ln (cho
cng mt ch t), vi cc kt qu nh sau (ppm c ngha l partsper-million, t l tnh theo phn triu):
258
Sputnik Education
5.5. Kim nh 2
Cch
7.7
0.8
II
7.9
1.2
nu x 0
0
(m/2)1
(5.47)
fm,n (x) =
x
nu
x
>
0,
c
(mx + n)(m+n)/2
trong
c=
5.5
(5.48)
Kim nh 2
259
5.5.1
P (Ai )n
(5.49)
260
Sputnik Education
5.5. Kim nh 2
tng bnh phng ca s 1 bin ngu nhin Zi c lp c cng phn
b normal chun tc N (0, 1)). Gi tr thc nghim
2 =
s
X
(i pi n)2
i=1
pi n
(5.50)
2 =
X (observedi expected )2
i
,
expectedi
(5.51)
261
2 =
Sputnik Education
5.5. Kim nh 2
(18 20)2 (15 20)2 (19 20)2
+
+
= 8, 3.
20
20
20
Tra bng phn phi xc sut ca 25 , ta c P (25 8, 3) 14%.
Con s 14% ln chp nhn gi thuyt H0 .
5.5.2
pi (1 pi ) p
=
= 0.
n
p
(1
p
)n
i
i
i=1
i
(5.52)
Sputnik Education
263
ni
713
299
66
16
Sputnik Education
5.5. Kim nh 2
m hnh phn phi Poisson vi tham s . Khi
p0i = (0, 4411)i e0,4411 /i!, i = 0, 1, 2, . . .
Vic c lng (v qua p0i ) nh trn to thm mt rng buc
Ni p0i n
tuyn tnh sau y cho cc bin ngu nhin p
, ngoi
p0i (1 p0i )n
rng buc cho bi phng trnh (5.52), c th l:
X Ni p0i n
i
= 0.
n
i
np0i
704,44
310,73
68,53
11,28
265
5.5.3
Kim nh 2 cho s c lp
Khi ta mun kim tra xem hai s kin hay hai bin ngu nhin
no c c lp vi nhau khng, ta cng c th dng 2 . Chng
hn, gi s ta c bin ngu nhin X nhn m gi tr x1 , . . . , xm , v
bin ngu nhin Y nhn n gi tr y1 , . . . , yn . Gi thuyt H0 : X c
lp vi Y c ngha l P (i, j) := P (X = xi , Y = yj ) = P (X =
xi )P (Y = yj ) vi mi i, j. M hnh gian xc sut y c mn phn
t (X = xi , Y = yj ). M hnh xc sut y c m + n 2 tham
s, c ngha l nu ta c lng c m + n 2 gi tr P (X =
x1 ), . . . , P (X = xm1 ), P (Y = y1 ), . . . , P (Y = yn1 ), th ta bit c
ton b phn b xc sut ca khng gian xc sut (nu chp nhn
gi thuyt P (X = xi , Y = yj ) = P (X = xi )P (Y = yj ) vi mi i, j).
Bi vy, s bc t do ca phn b 2 cn dng trong kim nh gi
thuyt H0 y l: mn (m + n 2) 1 = (m 1)(n 1).
V d 5.24. Ngi ta mun kim nh xem tui ca ngi c nh
hng n khuynh hng chnh tr khng. n gin, trong v d
ny ta chia cc khuynh hng chnh tr ra lm 3 khuynh hng: phi
t, phi hu, v trung lp. V ta cng chia cc tui ra lm 3: di
30 tui, t 30 n 50, v trn 50 tui. Bng sau l mt bng thng
266
Sputnik Education
5.5. Kim nh 2
k thm d khuynh hng ca 500 ngi c chn mt cch ngu
nhin:
Tui / Khuynh hng
Phi t
Phi hu
Trung lp
Tng
Di 30
45
35
38
118
30 n 50
62
60
95
217
Trn 50
48
49
68
165
Tng
155
144
201
500
2 =
S bc t do y l (m 1)(n 1) = (3 1)(3 1) = 4. Ta c
P (24 5, 329) > 25%. Nh vy ta chp nhn gi thit H0 : tui
khng nh hng (ng k) ti khuynh hng chnh tr.
Bi tp 5.17. (Sinh vin n c b k th?). Mt iu tra nm 1975
mt trng i hc hng u trn th gii v s sinh vin nam v n
xin hc v c nhn vo hc cc chng trnh sau i hc 3 khoa
ln nht trng cho kt qu thng k sau:
Sputnik Education
267
B t chi
Nam
526
550
313
698
5.6
(5.53)
Sputnik Education
(5.54)
269
5.6.1
(5.55)
(xi x)2
var(X)
v
b = y ax = E(Y ) aE(X),
(5.57)
P
P
trong x = ( xi )/n v y = ( yi )/n l cc gi tr k vng thc
nghim. Bnh phng ca h s tng quan thc nghim,
R2 =
270
Y )2
cov(X,
var(X)var(
Y )
Sputnik Education
(5.58)
2
i i
(5.59)
,
2
i i
cng nh.
R2
5.6.2
s
X
i Xi + ,
(5.60)
i=1
Sputnik Education
271
s
X
(5.61)
i Xi + .
i=0
s
X
i Xi , Xj i = 0 j = 0, 1, . . . , s,
(5.62)
i=0
hay c th vit l
s
X
i hXi , Xj i = hY, Xj i j = 0, 1, . . . , s.
(5.63)
i=0
Sputnik Education
(5.64)
5.6.3
Obs
price
age
distance
Sputnik Education
273
274
31.0
24
12.5
115
15.5
80
6.7
195
30.0
53
21.0
52
18.5
75
8.6
10
126
9.0
138
10
18.0
70
11
11.0
150
12
13.0
156
13
11.0
124
14
9.0
180
15
8.0
143
16
12.0
97
17
17.5
100
18
7.0
200
19
20.0
80
20
6.0
230
21
15.3
109
22
23.0
37
23
4.5
13
130
24
7.0
180
25
24.5
25
26
12.5
142
27
15.0
70
28
7.0
166
29
24.0
45
30
11.5
146
31
23.5
55
32
7.2
245
33
29.0
13
34
9.9
188
35
33.0
10
36
14.3
90
37
17.5
101
Sputnik Education
12.0
116
39
6.5
182
40
5.6
223
41
11.0
124
42
17.5
101
43
13.5
73
44
19.2
61
45
6.9
216
46
1.5
16
246
47
13.0
135
48
11.0
10
105
49
9.3
145
50
3.8
15
78
51
13.0
119
52
14.0
86
53
15.5
73
54
10.5
130
55
8.5
161
56
3.5
14
175
57
3.0
16
165
58
7.9
126
59
5.5
258
60
5.3
11
273
(5.65)
275
(5.66)
Sputnik Education
(5.67)
277
distance
10.
(age + 0.5)
(5.70)
278
Sputnik Education
Ph lc A
Li gii cho mt s bi tp
1.1
Li gii bi tp Chng 1
Ph lc A. Li gii cho mt s bi tp
P(
n
[
i=1
Ai ) =
n
X
P (Ai )
i=1
. . . + (1)n1 P (
P (Ai Aj ) +
i6=j
n
\
P (Ai Aj Ak )
i6=j6=k
Ai ).
i=1
280
Sputnik Education
Sputnik Education
281
Ph lc A. Li gii cho mt s bi tp
phi l ngi thng set cui cng. Xc sut Nam thng trn l
2
2 3
2
3
C22 .( )3 + C32 .( )3 . + C42 .( )3 .( )2 = 0.31744.
5
5 5
5
5
P (A B)
P (A B)
=
P (A) =
Bi tp 1.9. P (A|B) = P (B|A)
P (B)
P (A)
P (B).
Bi tp 1.10. Gi A l bin c trong 3 con mo c t nht mt con
l mo ci, B l bin c c 3 con mo u l mo ci. Ta cn tnh
P (A B)
P (B)
(1/2)3
1
P (B|A) =
=
=
= .
3
P (A)
P (A)
1 (1/2)
7
Bi tp 1.11. A, B c lp nn P (AB) = P (A).P (B). Ta c P (A) =
P ((A B)(AB))
= P (A B)+P
(AB) = P (A B)+P
(A).P (B).
= P (A).(1 P (B)) = P (A).P (B).
Vy A v B
c
Suy ra P (A B)
lp.
Bi tp 1.12. Ta ly 3 s kin A, B, C trng vi 3 s kin X, Y, Z nh
trong v d 1.18. Ta c P (X) = 1/2, P (Y ) = P (Z) = 1/6, P (XY ) =
1/12 = P (X).P (Y ), P (X Z) = 1/12 = P (X).P (Z), P (Y Z) =
1/36 = P (Y ).P (Z), P (X Y Z) = 0 6= P (X).P (Y Z). Nh vy
X c lp vi Y v Z nhng khng c lp vi Y Z.
Bi tp 1.13. Gi C l s kin "qun rt ra u tin l qun c". Ta
= 12 . 13 + 13 39 = 1 <
c P (B) = P (B|C).P (C) + P (B|C).P
(C)
51 52
51 52
4
13
= P (B|A). Vy hai s kin A v B khng c lp.
51
Bi tp 1.14. Gi A l bin c ngi c chn l n ng (A l bin
c ngi c chn l n b), B l bin c ngi c chn l tha
cn. Theo cng thc xc sut ton phn P (B) = P (B|A).P (A) +
(A)
= 0.65 0.5 + 0.534 0.5 = 0.592.
P (B|A).P
Bi tp 1.15. Gi A l bin c ngi c chn l n ng, B l bin
282
Sputnik Education
B ... B )) = P (B
ra P (\(Bn,1
n,s
n,2
n,1 Bn,2 ... Bn,k )
) + P (B
P (Bn,1
n,2 ) + ... + P (Bn,k ) 0 khi n . Vy P (Bn,1
... B ) 1 khi n .
Bn,2
n,s
C52 .
2 3
1
1
1
.
. = 0.15625.
2
2
2
283
Ph lc A. Li gii cho mt s bi tp
Bi tp 1.9. C th gii thch rng sau khi c xe bus n nh c B 7,5
pht th c xe bus n nh c A.
Bi tp 1.20. i) Xc sut trong 100 ln quay khng c ln no s
99 100
68 trng gii l (
) 0.366.
100
ii) Dnh cho bn c t lm.
Bi tp 1.21. Gi l khng gian mu, Ai l bin c ngi th i
nht c m ca mnh (i = 1, 2, ..., n). Ta cn tnh P (\(A1 A2
... An )) = 1 P (A1 A2 ... An ).
Ta c P (A1 A2 ... An )
= ni=1 P (Ai )ni,j=1,i6=j P (Ai Aj )+...+(1)n1 P (A1 A2 ...An )
1
= (Cn1 .(n 1)! Cn2 .(n 2)! + ... + (1)n1 .Cnn .0!)
n!
1
(1)n1
= 1 + ... +
.
2!
n!
Vy xc sut khng c ngi no nht c m ca chnh mnh l
1
(1)n1
1
1
(1)n
1 (1 + ... +
) = + ... +
e1 khi n .
2!
n! S 2! 3!
n!
T
Bi tp 1.22. t Bn =
n=1 Bn .
m=n Am , n = 1, 2, ... th B =
Mt khc B1 B2 B3 ... nn P (B ) = limn P (Bn ).
i) V
n=1 P (An ) < nn P (Bn ) < m=n P (Am ) 0 khi n
. Vy P (B ) = 0.
ii) Nu tn ti mt dy v hn cc An sao cho P (An ) th
P (Bn ) vi mi n. Vy P (B ) .
Bi tp 1.23. Gi A l s kin ngn ko c rt ra l ngn ko cha
hai ng tin vng, B l s kin ng tin rt ra l ng tin vng.
1/3
2
P (A B)
=
= .
Ta cn tnh P (A|B) =
P (B)
1/2
3
Bi tp 1.24. Cai ngc l lun nh vy l sai. Bi ton ny tng t
284
Sputnik Education
P (B|A).P (A)
(A)
. Kt qu l:
P (Y |X).P (X) + P (Y |X).P
(X)
P (X|Y ) =
285
Ph lc A. Li gii cho mt s bi tp
trong mt nm l hon ton c th xy ra (xc sut ln hn 0) th h
cc s kin trn l khng c lp.
1.2
Li gii bi tp Chng 2
Bi tp 2.2. Hm mt ca X:
(
X (x) =
0 nu |x| > 1
1 |x| nu |x| 1
0 nu x < 1
(1 + x)2 /2 nu 1 x 0
P (X x) =
1 nu x 1
Bin ngu nhin Y = arcsin X
P (Y x) = P (X sin x)
c hm phn phi:
0 nu x < /2
(1 + sin x)2 /2 nu /2 x 0
1 (1 sin x)2 /2 nu 0 < x < /2
1 nu x /2
Hm mt ca Y l:
0 nu |x| > /2
286
Sputnik Education
1 1 ( x )2
e 2
2
Xt y = f (x) =
x
1
X (x)
f 0 (x) = . Ta c: Y (y) =
=
|f 0 (x)|
1 1 ( x )2
e 2 =
2
1 21 y 2
.
2 e
Sputnik Education
287
Ph lc A. Li gii cho mt s bi tp
Bi tp 2.7. X E() hm mt :
(
X (x) =
ex nu x > 0
0 nu x 0
x
e
e c y nu y > 0
nu x > 0
c
Y (y) =
=
c
0 nu y 0
0 nu x 0
Vy Y E( c ).
Bi tp 2.8. Ta c:
P (X > s + t, X > s)
P (X > s)
e(s+t)
= et = P (X > t)
es
Sputnik Education
nu x 1
x+1
X (x) =
0 nu x < 1
Y = X s , s > 0. Xt y = f (x) = xs , ta c:
x+1 = 1 nu x 1
X (x)
Y (y) =
=
s xs1
s x+s
|f 0 (x)| 0 nu x < 1
1
+1 nu y 1
s ys
=
0 nu y < 1
1
1
(1 x)2
.
s
1
1
. Xt y = f (x) =
1X
1x
Ta c
X (x)
Y (y) = 0
=
|f (x)|
(1 x)2 =
1
y2
nu y 1
0 nu y < 1
289
Ph lc A. Li gii cho mt s bi tp
v ring Y ri coi hai bin c lp vi nhau. (Nu chng c lp
th E(X)E(Y ) = E(XY )). Chng hn c th chn X v Y l nhng
bin ngu nhin nhn hai gi tr 0 v 1, vi phn b xc sut chung
nh sau: P (X = 0, Y = 0) = 0.2, P (X = 0, Y = 1) = 0.4, P (X =
1, Y = 0) = 0.3, P (X = 1, Y = 1) = 0.1 Khi E(X) = 0.4, E(Y ) =
0.5, E(XY ) = 0.1 6= E(X)E(Y ) = 0.2.
Bi tp 2.14. C 99 qu c nh s t 1 n 99, ly ngu nhin 5
5 . Gi hai bin
qu, ta c lc lng ca khng gian mu l || = C99
4
C98
5
C99
4
C97
5
C99
95
C44
5
C99
C44
5
C99
C54
5
C99
99
4
C98
5
C99
Ckm+1 + Ckm .
290
Sputnik Education
=
=
=
4 + 2C 4 + + 95C 4
C98
97
4
5
C99
98
97
P
P
Ck4 +
Ck4 + C44
k=4
k=4
5
C99
5 + C5 + + C5
C99
98
5
5
C99
6
C100
100
100! 94! 5!
=
.
=
5
6! 94!
99!
6
C99
6
X
k=0
2 1
C6k ( )k ( )6k (2k 6) = 2.
3 3
291
Ph lc A. Li gii cho mt s bi tp
Nu cu tr li l "c": s s nm trong on 2n1 + 1; 2n
Nu cu tr li l "khng": s s nm trong on 1; 2n1
Ln th i: Ta s xc nh c s nm trong on c di 2ni .
Vy, sau n ln, ta s xc nh c s A chn.
ii) Ta s chng minh mt khng nh tng qut hn: gi s X l
mt tp hu hn c m phn t, A chn mt phn t ca X, v B hi
cc cu hi kiu phn t c nm trong tp con Y ca X khng,
v A s tr li l c hoc khng. Khi mi chin thut hi ca B s
cn trung bnh t nht l log2 m cu hi xc nh phn t m A
chn. (Trng hp bi ton nu ra l trng hp m = 2n ).
Ta c th chng minh khng nh ny bng cch qui np theo m.
Vi cc s m nh (v d m = 2 hay m = 3), d dng kim tra trc
tip khng nh), v vi m = 1 th khng nh l hin nhin. Gi s
ta chng minh c khng nh cho cc tp c khng qu m 1
phn t (m 2), ta s chng minh rng khng nh ng cho tp X
vi m phn t.
D l chin thut no, th cu u tin ca B cng phi c dng
phn t c nm trong Y khng, trong Y l mt tp con ca
X m B chn ra. Nu cu tr li l c, th trong cc bc tip theo
B phi chn cc tp con ca Y , v nh vy, theo qui np, s cn
thm trung bnh t nht l log2 |Y | ln hi. y ta c th coi rng
1 |Y | = k < |X| = m. Nu cu tr li l khng, th c ngha l
phn t A chn nm trong X \ Y, v s cn thm trung bnh t nht
log2 |X \ Y | = log2 (m k) ln hi. Xc sut phn t m A chn ri
vo Y , tc l A tr li Yes cho cu hi u tin l |Y |/|X| = k/m,
292
Sputnik Education
mk
k
log2 k +
log2 (m k)
m
m
1+
k
m
log2 k +
k
mk
log2 k +
log2 (m k) 1 + 2.(1/2). log2 (m/2) = log2 m,
m
m
c sin x nu x (0, )
0 nu x
/ (0, )
i) Ta c:
Z
Z
Y (x)dx =
1=
c sin xdx = c cos x = 2c,
0
do c = 1/2.
Z
ca Y bng /2.
Bi tp 2.18. X c phn phi Pareto vi tham s > 1, hm mt :
nu x 1
x+1
X (x) =
0 nu x < 1
Sputnik Education
293
Ph lc A. Li gii cho mt s bi tp
K vng ca X l:
Z
E(X) =
+1
dx
=
x
.
=
+1
x
+ 1
1
1
i=1
i=1
+
= 1.
n
ai + bi
n
ai + bi
i=1
i=1
k1
1
1
= ,
=p
2
(1 (1 p))
p
X
E(X 2 ) =
k 2 p(1 p)k1
k1
= p(1 p)
k(k 1) (1 p)k2 + p
k2
k1
1
2p
2
+ =
,
(1 (1 p))3 p
p2
1p
var(X) = E(X 2 ) (E(X))2 =
.
p2
= p(1 p)
294
Sputnik Education
k p(1 p)k1
1p
.
p
k
ii) X c phn phi Poisson P (k) = e .
k!
p
Do , lch chun = var(X) =
E(X) = e
k1
X k1
k
= e
k!
(k 1)!
k1
= e e = ,
X
X
k
k1
k2
k
E(X 2 ) = e
= e
k!
(k 1)!
k1
k1
k1
k1
X
X
= e (k 1)
+
(k 1)!
(k 1)!
k1
k1
= e (e + e ) = 2 +
p
p
= E(X 2 ) (E(X))2 = 2 + 2 = .
(
Bi tp 2.21. E(X) = 2/3 , X (x) =
Ta c
Z1
2/3 = E(X) =
x(ax2 + b)dx =
a b
+
4 2
v
Z
1=
Z1
X (x)dx =
(ax2 + b)dx =
a
+ b.
3
295
Ph lc A. Li gii cho mt s bi tp
1/3, t suy ra
Z1
E(X ) =
=
P (A)
k
Y
P (Ai ) = (1 p)k .
i=1
296
m+k
m + mk
qm
1 q m1 (1 q)
Cm
(1 q)m
Sputnik Education
E(S) =
m
X
i mi
Cm
q
(1 q)i (m + ik)
i=0
=m
m
X
i mi
Cm
q
(1 q) + k
i=0
m
X
i mi
iCm
q
(1 q)i
i=0
= m + k(1 q)m
m
X
i1 mi
q
(1 q)i1
Cm1
i=1
= m + mk(1 q),
2
E(S ) =
m
X
i mi
Cm
q
(1 q)i (m + ik)2
i=0
2
= m + 2mk
m
X
i mi
iCm
q
(1
q) + k
i=0
2
m
X
i mi
i2 Cm
q
(1 q)i
i=0
2
= m + 2mk m(1 q) + k m(1 m)(1 q)2 + m(1 q)
= m2 + 2m2 k(1 q) + mk 2 (1 q) [(m 1)(q 1) + 1]
var(S) = E(S 2 ) E(S)2 = mk 2 (1 q)q.
iii) Ta c E(S) < N m+mk(1q) < mk kq > 1 k(1p)k > 1.
Bi tp 2.23. Khng mt tnh tng qut, ta coi X, Y nhn hu hn
cc gi tr a1 , a2 , . . . , an , (ai 6= aj i 6= j), vi cc xc sut p(X =
n
n
P
P
ai ) = pi 0 v p(Y = ai ) = qi 0.
pi =
qi = 1. Theo gi
i=1
i=1
P
P
thuyt, ta c E(X k ) = i aki pi = E(Y k ) = i aki qi , hay c ngha l
Pn
k
i=1 ai xi = 0 vi xi = pi qi v vi mi s t nhin k. Cho k chy
t 1 n n, ta c mt h phng trnh tuyn tnh vi n n xi v n
phng trnh.
Nu ai 6= 0 vi mi i, th nh thc ca h phng trnh ny l
Sputnik Education
297
Ph lc A. Li gii cho mt s bi tp
nh thc ca ma trn
an
a21 a22 a2n
an1 an2 ann
a1
a2
ex nu x > 0
0 nu x 0
Sputnik Education
P (k)z =
k=1
k1 k
p(p1)
z = pz
k=1
(zpz)k =
k=0
pz
.
1 z + pz
T ta c:
G0 (z) =
p
2p(1 p)
, G(z) =
,
2
(1 z + pz)
(1 z + pz)3
v phng sai ca X l:
var(X) = G(1) + G0 (1) (G0 (1))2 =
2(1 p) 1
1
1p
+ 2 =
.
p2
p p
p2
n
X
z k P (k) =
n
X
k=0
k=0
Hm Laplace:
L(t) = E(e
tX
)=
n
X
k=0
1.3
Li gii bi tp Chng 3
Bi tp 3.1. Ta c:
PF (]a, b]]c, d]]e, f ]) =
= PF (] , b]]c, d]]e, f ]) PF (] , a]]c, d]]e, f ])
Sputnik Education
299
Ph lc A. Li gii cho mt s bi tp
S hng th nht:
PF (] , b]]c, d]]e, f ])
= PF (] , b]] , d]]e, f ]) PF (] , b]] , c]]e, f ])
= PF (], b]], d]], f ])PF (], b]], d]], e])
+ PF (] , b]] , c]] , e]) PF (] , b]] , c]] , f ]
= FF (b, d, f ) FF (b, d, e) + FF (b, c, e) FF (b, c, f )
S hng th hai:
PF (] , a]]c, d]]e, f ])
= FF (a, d, f ) FF (a, d, e) + FF (a, c, e) FF (a, c, f )
Vy:
PF (]a, b]]c, d]]e, f ])
= FF (b, d, f ) FF (b, d, e) + FF (b, c, e) FF (b, c, f )
FF (a, d, f ) + FF (a, d, e) FF (a, c, e) + FF (a, c, f )
Bi tp 3.2. Gi s hai ngi hn gp nhau ti A.
X l thi im ngi 1 n A ( [0, 1])
Y l thi im ngi 2 n A ( [0, 1])
12h
0
1, x [0, 1]
X (x) =
0, x
6 [0, 1]
300
13h
1
1, y [0, 1]
, Y (y) =
0, y
6 [0, 1]
Sputnik Education
1
)
4Z Z
dxdy =
7
16
1 xy 1
4
4
0x1, 0y1
7
.
16
Bi tp 3.3. Gi s tn ti hm mt ca (X, X 3 ) l X,Y (x, y) vi
Vy xc sut hai ngi gp nhau theo hn l
R +
301
Ph lc A. Li gii cho mt s bi tp
Bi tp 3.5. Phn b xc sut ng thi ca 3 bin X, Y, Z c lp
vi phn b xc sut u trn on [0, 1] :
+
Z
x.ex
X (x) =
(x, y)dy =
0
+
Z
ey
(x, y)dx =
Y (y) =
0
vi
x>0
vi
x0
vi
y>0
vi y 0
Sputnik Education
12 s2
2 ),
22 s2
2 )
hay X1 + X2 N (1 + 2 ,
12 +12
2 ).
1X k
z
6
k=1
Suy ra:
GX (z) =
5
Y
i=1
6
1 X k 5
GXi (z) = 5 (
z )
6
Vy xc sut cn tnh l h s ca
k=1
z 15
303
Ph lc A. Li gii cho mt s bi tp
Ta c:
= E(Xi ) =
19
18
50
.50 .50 =
37
37
37
-1
1/4
1/2
1/4
p 1/2 1/2
Ta c cov(X, X 2 ) = E(X 3 ) E(X)E(X 2 ) = 0 nhng X, X 2 khng
c lp (v P (X = 1, X 2 = 1) = P (X = 1) = 1/4 6= P (X =
1)P (X 2 = 1)).
Bi tp 3.14. r(X, Y ) 0.9427.
Bi tp 3.17. Ta c:
P (K = k) =
P (K = k | N = n).P (N = n)
nk
=
=
304
Cnk pk (1 p)nk .
nk
pk e k
k!
e n
n!
X (q)nk
pk e k qk
(p)k ep
=
.e =
.
(n k)!
k!
k!
nk
Sputnik Education
1
2 .
t +st )
) = E(eisAZ )eis
P P
j ( k sk akj )Zj suy ra
E(eisAZ ) =
Eei(
k sk akj )Zj
e 2 (
2
k sk akj )
12 (
= e 2
P P
k
k sk sl (
akj alj )
j
1
= e 2 ss
Vy X (s) = eis
t 1 sst
2
X2
2
Z 2
x2
2
X2
P(
< t) = P ( 2t < X < 2t) =
e 2
2
2 0
o hm theo t
et
et
0
F X 2 (t) = X 2 (t) = 1(0,+) (t)
2
t
t
2
Ta cng c
ez
Y 2 (z) = 1(0,+) (z)
z
2
Sputnik Education
305
Ph lc A. Li gii cho mt s bi tp
t X 0 =
X2
0
2 ,Y
Y2
2
Ta c
X 0 ,Y 0 (t, z) =
etz
1(t>0,z>0)
tz
Suy ra
Z
X 0 (u z)Y (z)dz =
X 0 +Y 0 (u) =
R
eu
Z
0
dz
p
= eu
z(u z)
1
2 e
2
2
z1
z2
22
2
|z2 | z1 z2
Z1
2
2 .
Xt f (Z) = ( Z
,
Z
),
ta
c
(z
,
z
)
=
2
1
2
f
(Z)
2 e
2
2
|b| (a2 +1) b
2 .
Vi a = zz12 , b = z2 z1 = ab. Suy ra f (Z) (a, b) = 2
e
Ta c:
Z
1
f (Z) (a, b)db =
Z1 (a) =
2
Z2
R
1
=
(a2 + 1)
2 +1) b2
2
|b|e(a
Bi tp 3.22. i) t U = X, V = Z suy ra X = U, Y = V
1 r2 +
rU .
Ta c:
p
p
1
U,V (u, v) = X,Y (x, y) 1 r2 = X,Y (u, v 1 r2 + ru)
1 r2
2
2
1 u +v
2
=
e
2
Suy ra U (u) =
R U,V dv
1 u2
2 e
v ta cng c V (v) =
1 v2
2 e
Sputnik Education
Z
U,V (u, v)dudv
=
u>0 v>
ru
1r 2
Z
U,V dudv =
U,V dudv +
1
+ I(r)
4
u>0 0>v> ru
u>0 v>0
1r 2
1
=
2
+
Z
2
1
1
u
)du =
(e 2(1r2 )
1 r2
2 1 r2
0
1
P (X > 0, Y > 0) = 14 + 2
arcsin(r).
Suy ra I =
1
2 arcsin(r)
X,Y (x, y)
1
(x ry)2
=p
exp(
)
Y (y)
2(1 r2 )
2(1 r2 )
Sputnik Education
307
Ph lc A. Li gii cho mt s bi tp
1.4
Li gii bi tp Chng 4
Pn
k=1 Xk pn
.
Zn = p
np(p 1)
1
1
1050 6000
850 6000 6
6
r
r
=P
6000
1 5
1 5
6000
6000
6 6
6 6
( 3) (3 3),
Sputnik Education
(t) = e(e
Vy nu Sn =
Pn
k=1 Xk
it 1)
k=1
k
x2
e 2
1
= .
2
2
n
X
P (Xn = k) =
k=0
n
X
en
k=0
nk
.
k!
n2 t2
) X
2
n2 t2
ln X
2
(n , n ) (, ).
in t
Sputnik Education
309
Ph lc A. Li gii cho mt s bi tp
vi , 0 no . Ta c iu cn chng minh.
Bi tp 4.6. Trc ht ch rng phn b hnh hc vi tham s p c
hm c trng c tnh nh sau:
p (t) =
X
k1
eitk pk =
k1
p X
peik
[(1 p)eit ]k =
1p
(1 eik ) + peik
k1
Vy
t
Xn (t) = Xn ( ) =
n
n
!1
it
it
n
it.e
1 en
it
n
+1
lim Xn (t) =
1
.
1 it
Sputnik Education
x
)
n
= 1 P ( max Xi 1
1in
=1
n
Y
P (Xi 1
i=1
x
)
n
x
)
n
1 (1 x )n nu x 0, n >> 1,
n
=
0 nu x < 0.
1 ex nu x 0,
n
0 nu x < 0.
d
Vy Yn
P.
Bi tp 4.9. Theo nh l Fubini ta c:
1
|
2
Z Z
1
X (s)ds| = |
( eisx dPX )ds|
2
Z R
1
1
=|
( eisx | )dPX |
2 R ix
Z
sin x
=|
dPX |
x
ZR
Z
sin x
sin x
|
|dPX +
|
|dPX
x
x
|x| 2
|x|> 2
Z
Z
1
dPX +
dPX
2 |x|>
|x|
1
2 2
= (1 + P [ , ])
2
Sputnik Education
311
Ph lc A. Li gii cho mt s bi tp
T ta c
312
2 2
1
P[ , ] |
X (s)ds| 1.
Sputnik Education
Ph lc B
Sputnik Education
Sputnik Education
315
Ph lc C
Bng phn b Z
Phn b normal chun tc N (0, 1) cn c gi l phn b Z.
Bng pha trc cho xc sut PN (0,1) (] , Z[).
Bng pha sau cho xc sut ui PN (0,1) (]Z, [)
Z | 0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
----+---------------------------------------------------------------------0.0 | 0.5000 0.5040 0.5080 0.5120 0.5160 0.5199 0.5239 0.5279 0.5319 0.5359
0.1 | 0.5398 0.5438 0.5478 0.5517 0.5557 0.5596 0.5636 0.5675 0.5714 0.5753
0.2 | 0.5793 0.5832 0.5871 0.5910 0.5948 0.5987 0.6026 0.6064 0.6103 0.6141
0.3 | 0.6179 0.6217 0.6255 0.6293 0.6331 0.6368 0.6406 0.6443 0.6480 0.6517
0.4 | 0.6554 0.6591 0.6628 0.6664 0.6700 0.6736 0.6772 0.6808 0.6844 0.6879
0.5 | 0.6915 0.6950 0.6985 0.7019 0.7054 0.7088 0.7123 0.7157 0.7190 0.7224
0.6 | 0.7257 0.7291 0.7324 0.7357 0.7389 0.7422 0.7454 0.7486 0.7517 0.7549
0.7 | 0.7580 0.7611 0.7642 0.7673 0.7704 0.7734 0.7764 0.7794 0.7823 0.7852
0.8 | 0.7881 0.7910 0.7939 0.7967 0.7995 0.8023 0.8051 0.8078 0.8106 0.8133
0.9 | 0.8159 0.8186 0.8212 0.8238 0.8264 0.8289 0.8315 0.8340 0.8365 0.8389
1.0 | 0.8413 0.8438 0.8461 0.8485 0.8508 0.8531 0.8554 0.8577 0.8599 0.8621
1.1 | 0.8643 0.8665 0.8686 0.8708 0.8729 0.8749 0.8770 0.8790 0.8810 0.8830
1.2 | 0.8849 0.8869 0.8888 0.8907 0.8925 0.8944 0.8962 0.8980 0.8997 0.9015
1.3 | 0.9032 0.9049 0.9066 0.9082 0.9099 0.9115 0.9131 0.9147 0.9162 0.9177
316
1.4 | 0.9192 0.9207 0.9222 0.9236 0.9251 0.9265 0.9279 0.9292 0.9306 0.9319
1.5 | 0.9332 0.9345 0.9357 0.9370 0.9382 0.9394 0.9406 0.9418 0.9429 0.9441
1.6 | 0.9452 0.9463 0.9474 0.9484 0.9495 0.9505 0.9515 0.9525 0.9535 0.9545
1.7 | 0.9554 0.9564 0.9573 0.9582 0.9591 0.9599 0.9608 0.9616 0.9625 0.9633
1.8 | 0.9641 0.9649 0.9656 0.9664 0.9671 0.9678 0.9686 0.9693 0.9699 0.9706
1.9 | 0.9713 0.9719 0.9726 0.9732 0.9738 0.9744 0.9750 0.9756 0.9761 0.9767
2.0 | 0.9772 0.9778 0.9783 0.9788 0.9793 0.9798 0.9803 0.9808 0.9812 0.9817
2.1 | 0.9821 0.9826 0.9830 0.9834 0.9838 0.9842 0.9846 0.9850 0.9854 0.9857
2.2 | 0.9861 0.9864 0.9868 0.9871 0.9875 0.9878 0.9881 0.9884 0.9887 0.9890
2.3 | 0.9893 0.9896 0.9898 0.9901 0.9904 0.9906 0.9909 0.9911 0.9913 0.9916
2.4 | 0.9918 0.9920 0.9922 0.9925 0.9927 0.9929 0.9931 0.9932 0.9934 0.9936
2.5 | 0.9938 0.9940 0.9941 0.9943 0.9945 0.9946 0.9948 0.9949 0.9951 0.9952
2.6 | 0.9953 0.9955 0.9956 0.9957 0.9959 0.9960 0.9961 0.9962 0.9963 0.9964
2.7 | 0.9965 0.9966 0.9967 0.9968 0.9969 0.9970 0.9971 0.9972 0.9973 0.9974
2.8 | 0.9974 0.9975 0.9976 0.9977 0.9977 0.9978 0.9979 0.9979 0.9980 0.9981
2.9 | 0.9981 0.9982 0.9982 0.9983 0.9984 0.9984 0.9985 0.9985 0.9986 0.9986
3.0 | 0.9987 0.9987 0.9987 0.9988 0.9988 0.9989 0.9989 0.9989 0.9990 0.9990
Z
P{Z to oo} |
P{Z to oo} |
P{Z to oo}
P{Z to oo}
----------------+-----------------+------------------+-----------------2.0
0.02275
3.0 0.001350
4.0 0.00003167
5.0
2.867 E-7
2.1
0.01786
3.1 0.0009676
4.1 0.00002066
5.5
1.899 E-8
2.2
0.01390
3.2 0.0006871
4.2 0.00001335
6.0
9.866 E-10
2.3
0.01072
3.3 0.0004834
4.3 0.00000854
6.5
4.016 E-11
2.4
0.00820
3.4 0.0003369
4.4 0.000005413 |
7.0
1.280 E-12
2.5
0.00621
3.5 0.0002326
4.5 0.000003398 |
7.5
3.191 E-14
2.6
0.004661
3.6 0.0001591
4.6 0.000002112 |
8.0
6.221 E-16
2.7
0.003467
3.7 0.0001078
4.7 0.000001300 |
8.5
9.480 E-18
2.8
0.002555
3.8 0.00007235 |
9.0
1.129 E-19
2.9
0.001866
3.9 0.00004810 |
9.5
1.049 E-21
Sputnik Education
317
318
Sputnik Education
trc y.
Sch hp vi mi la tui.
321
Sputnik Education
Mt s sch sp xut bn
Di y l mt s sch trong T Sch Sputnik hon thn hoc
hn nh hon thnh vo thi im 05/2015. Ngoi ra cc cng tc
vin ca T Sch Sputnk ang vit v dch nhiu quyn sch khc.
323
Sputnik Education
325
c Thi, Cc bi tp s hc
Dnh cho hc cc hc sinh PTCS v PTTH c nng khiu v ton.
Spivak, Cu lc b ton hc lp 6 - lp 7
Trn Nam Dng dch t ting Nga.
326
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Cc a ch bn sch Sputnik
Sch ca T sch Sputnik c c bn qua cc cng ty pht hnh
sch n cc ca hng online/offlinen cc hi ch sch, v.v. Ngoi ra,
Sputnik c phn phi trc tip sch n cc a im sau, nhng ai
mun mua c th lin lc. Danh sch ny s thnh thong c cp
nht.
327
Online
- Tiki.vn
328
Sputnik Education
Ch mc
2 , 203
c lng, 223
nh x bo ton xc sut, 35
i thuyt H1 , 245
nh l Pearson, 204
116
nh l Prokhorov, 196
nh l de Moivre Laplace,
178
nh l gii hn trung tm, 182
nh l hi t b chn Lebesgue,
99
nh l lin tc, 197
ng cu xc sut, 35
im ht, 75
o c, 24
biu tn s, 86
329
hm phn phi, 72
221
hm phn phi xc sut ng
c ca mu, 220
thi, 129
cht, 196
chun Lk , 202
131
gi tr P, 248
gi thuyt H0 , 245
hm thng k, 224
gretl, 156
h s bt i xng, 111
hu khp mi ni, 69
hi qui, 268
189
hi t yu, 188
hm hp l, 228
hm o c, 69
hm c lng, 223
k vng, 92
hm ch bo, 70
hm mt , 74, 132
hm mt ng thi, 132
hm mt bin, 133
330
Sputnik Education
moment, 110
155, 160
kh tch, 98
phn b u, 83
phn b Bernoulli, 29
kim nh F, 258
kim nh T, 250
phn b chun, 85
phn b F, 258
kim nh Z, 250
kurtosis, 112
phn b hn hp, 77
phn b lu tha, 89
phn b nh thc, 41
phn b nh thc m, 80
lin tc tuyt i, 74
phn b normal, 85
169
metric, 192
tc, 169
metric L1 , 191
metric KolmogorovSmirnov, 192
phn b Pareto, 90
Sputnik Education
331
phn b Poisson, 80
s kin c lp, 46
phn b ri rc, 76
phn b T, 241
phn b xc sut, 25
phn b xc sut u, 30
phn b xc sut ng thi, 129
sigma-i s, 24
164
phn b xc sut cm sinh, 36
phn b xc sut thc nghim,
221
phn hoch, 48
tn sut, 87
phn ri rc, 77
phng php hp l cc i,
228
thng k, 224
trung v, 223
xc sut, 17
xc sut c iu kin, 42
s bc t do, 203
332
Sputnik Education