Professional Documents
Culture Documents
3/4/12
3/7/12
3/10/12
3/1/13
LS Ti cp vn
3/4/13
3/7/13
3/10/13
LS ti chit khu
Trn ls H VN*
Ngun: SBV
* Trn li sut huy ng p dng cho k hn n 12 thng (trc
23/6) v p dng cho k hn ngn n 6 thng (sau 23/6)
(20,000)
(30,000)
(40,000)
(50,000)
Ngun : Reuters
10 11 12
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
CV VND Ngn
hn
CV VND TDH
2
0
HDV $ Dn c
HDV $ TCKT
Ngun: SBV
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
15
10
5
0
T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T10 T11 T12
-5
Tng trng TD (ytd)
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
O/N
1 tun
2 tun
1 thng
Th trng tin t LNH nm 2013 cha cho thy nhiu khc bit so vi
nm 2012. Thanh khon h thng di do, cung vn VN ln v vt
cu. Giao dch trm lng, doanh s giao dch gim thp c bit trong
giai on 6 thng u nm (doanh s bnh qun phin trong nm cn
khong 17 nghn t /phin, gim khong 25% so vi nm 2012). Mt
bng li sut thp k lc - phn ln thi gian dao ng quanh 33,5%/nm k hn 1 tun.
Cc yu t tc ng ca nm 2012 tip tc c nh hng chnh ti th
trng VN LNH trong nm 2013, bao gm:
(i) Tng trng tn dng chm hn tng trng huy ng vn. T l
d n tn dng/huy ng vn tip tc gim di 1.
Tng trng tn dng VN tip tc thp hn so vi tng trng huy
ng vn, c tnh n ht nm tng trng tn dng v huy ng ln
lt mc quanh 14% v 17%. T l cho vay/huy ng vn VND dao
ng di 1. Nh vy, thanh khon h thng ngn hng mc rt tt.
20
10
0
2012
2013
(20,000)
(30,000)
10 11 12
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
a) Th trng TPCP
Li sut TPCP tip tc gim 1-2% so vi u nm
Li sut TPCP nm 2013 gn nh chuyn ng cng qu o vi nm
2012. Din bin li sut trong nm cng gm hai giai on trng khp
vi hai giai on ca nm 2012, c th:
2 nm
3 nm
5 nm
3/11/13
3/9/13
3/7/13
3/5/13
3/3/13
3/1/13
3/11/12
3/9/12
3/7/12
3/5/12
3/3/12
3/1/12
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
Ngun: VBMA
Biu 10: o hn tri phiu, tn phiu cc nm (t )
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
Tn phiu CP
2011
Ngun: HNX
TPCP
2012
TPCPBL
2013
2014
Tng o hn
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
T l 2013
2 nm
Di 2 nm
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Ngun: HNX
Biu 12: Pht hnh s cp TPCP nm 2013 ( t )
25000
20000
Th trng th cp TPCP:
30000
15000
10000
5000
0
KL gi
Ngun: HNX
KL trng
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
GTGD ton TT
NN mua rng
Ngun: HNX
Biu 14: GTGD TPDN nim yt theo thng (t )
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
Theo thng tin t phin hp Tng kt ngnh Ngn hng ngy 17/12,
chnh sch tin t (CSTT) nm 2014 s tip tc c Chnh Ph v
NHNN nh hng nhm m bo cc mc tiu n nh li sut, t gi,
h tr nn kinh t vi cc ch tiu c th v iu hnh nh sau:
- Tng phng tin thanh ton tng 16-18%;
- Tn dng tng 12-14% v c iu chnh ph hp vi tnh hnh thc
t, m bo thc hin mc tiu chnh sch tin t;
- Li sut v t gi mc hp l, ph hp vi cc cn i kinh t v m,
din bin th trng tin t, ngoi hi.
Theo kt qu kho st v d bo KTVM nm 2014 ca chng ti,
trin vng chung ca KTVM trong nc l tip tc n nh- tc cha
c thay i ng ch so vi nm 2013 ( chim 67% trn tng s hn
200 phiu tr li). Kinh t trong nc nm 2014 s vn gp nhiu kh
khn. Do vy, c th t c mc tiu n nh KTVM, cng nh
h tr ti a cho nn kinh t nh mc tiu ra th CSTT s vn
ng vai tr rt quan trng, c bit trong cng cuc h tr cng
ng doanh nghip. Theo , nu lm pht tip tc c gi mc
thp quanh 6,5% th kh nng mt t ct gim li sut chnh sch
na c th c cn nhc thc hin vi bin khong 50 im.
iu ny th hin rt r trong 7 ln h trn li sut huy ng ca
NHNN k t nm 2012. Da trn nhng tn hiu lm pht, cc doanh
nghip vn kh khn tip cn tn dng, NHNN c nhng t ct
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
D BO TH TRNG TIN T
Bng 1: D bo li sut th trng 1(%/nm)
Cc ch tiu
Li sut
HV
VN
Li sut
CV
VN
Li sut
HV
USD
Li sut
CV
USD
Cui nm
2013
6,5-7,5%
6- di
12 thng
7,5-8,5%
T 12
thng
KH ngn 9-11,5%
11,5-13%
KH di
C nhn
TCKT
1,25%
0,25%
KH ngn 5-6%
6,5-7%
KH di
Ngun: Nhm NC d bo
D bo cui
nm 2014
6-7%
6,5-8%
8-10,5%
10,5-12%
1,25%
0,25%
5-6%
6,5-7%
Th trng 1
Mt bng li sut trn th trng 1 nhn chung s n nh hn trong
nm 2014, c th gim thm 0,5-1%/nm i vi li sut huy ng v
gim ti a 1-2% i vi li sut cho vay.
Cng vi s ci thin ca nn kinh t nm 2014, tng trng tn dng
c d bo c phn kh quan hn, t 12-13% v tng trng huy
ng vn n nh, vo khong 15-16%.
Li sut huy ng c th gim 0,5%-1% v mt bng li sut cho vay
gim 1-2% (chi tit d bo trong Bng 1)
Hu ht cc yu t u h tr cho s gim nh mt bng li sut th
trng 1 bao gm:
Lm pht c d bo vn mc thp
Kinh t v m trong nc nm 2014 c d bo c s ci thin nhng
cha ng k, cu sn xut v tiu dng trong nc tng ln tuy nhin
vn cn kh hn ch. Lm pht tc ng bi yu t din bin gi nhin
liu v lng thc th gii nhiu kh nng s khng ln do ngun cung
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
mom
yoy
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
5
Jan-11
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
ave year
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
Ngun: HSBC
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
53
52
51
50
49
48
47
46
45
44
43
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
2011
2012
2013
Thu NS
674.5
658.6
790.8
Chi NS
796
821.2
986.2
Bi Chi
121.5
162.6
195.4
Th trng TPCP
- Cung TPCP d kin s tip tc tng, ln trn 200 nghn t
Trong nhng nm gn y, thm ht ngn sch ngy cng c ni rng
(xem bng 2) xut pht t 2 nguyn nhn chnh: (i) Doanh nghip trong
nc gp nhiu kh khn khin Chnh Ph phi a ra nhiu bin php
min, gim, dn thu, ph khin ngun thu khng t ch tiu ra; (ii)
Chi tiu ngn sch vn cn c y mnh cho cc d n u t cng
nhm tng tng cu, kch thch tng trng kinh t. Vi s ph duyt
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
18000
16000
14,415
14000
14,812
12,950
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
T1 T3 T5 T7 T9 T11 T1 T3 T5 T7 T9 T11
2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014
o hn TnPCP
Ngun: HNX
o hn TPCP
Tng H
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn