TRNG I HC NGOI THNG C S 2

THNH PH H CH MINH

B mn: Kinh t lng

TI:

PHN TCH CC NHN T NH HNG N

GI THU MUA C PH TH CA VIT NAM

Ging vin : Phan Bi Khu i

Kha lp: K51
Nhm 1

Thnh ph H Ch Minh
Thng 3 nm 2015

DANH SCH NHM V PHN CNG CNG VIC

STT H V TN

MSSV

1001017140

Phan Th Cm Ly

Trn Anh Bng

Nguyn ng Dng

V Phan Qunh Giao

Ng Th Thu Hoi

PHN CNG CNG VIC

1201016036

1201016101

1201016121

1201016168

Trng Th Dim Kiu 1201016224

Tm s liu

Vit chng 2

Tm ti liu tham kho

Vit chng 1

Tm ti liu tham kho

Tm s liu

Chy Eview, vit chng 4

Tm ti liu tham kho

Tm s liu

Vit chng 2

Tng hp bi vit.

Tm s liu

Chy Eview, vit chng 4

Tm ti liu tham kho

Nhm trng

Lm bng kho st, tm s

liu

nh Th T Nhi

ng Vn Ngc

1201016353

1201016318

Vit chng 3

Tm ti liu tham kho

Vit chng 1

Vit thit lp m hnh

Vit chng 5

Tm ti liu tham kho

H tr chy Eview

MC LC
CHNG I: TNG QUAN V TNH HNH C PH TI VIT NAM ........................................................... 4
1.

2.

ngha ca vic la chn ti .............................................................................................. 4

1.1

L do chn ti................................................................................................................. 4

1.2

Li ch ti ....................................................................................................................... 5

Mc tiu v phm vi nghin cu.............................................................................................. 6

2.1

Mc tiu nghin cu ........................................................................................................... 6

2.2

Cu hi nghin cu ............................................................................................................. 6

2.3

Phm vi nghin cu............................................................................................................. 6

CHNG II: C S L LUN V CC YU T NH HNG TI GI THU MUA C PH TH ............. 7

1.

C s l lun .............................................................................................................................. 7

2.

Thit lp m hnh tng qut ..................................................................................................... 8

2.1

Bin ph thuc .................................................................................................................... 8

2.2

Bin c lp ........................................................................................................................ 8

CHNG III: TNG QUAN V PHNG PHP NGHIN CU CC NHN T NH HNG TI GI

THU MUA C PH TH ......................................................................................................................... 12
1.

Gi thit nghin cu: .............................................................................................................. 12

2.

M hnh nghin cu xut: ................................................................................................. 12

3.

Ngun s liu v cch thu thp s liu .................................................................................. 13

CHNG IV: KT QU NGHIN CU CC NHN T NH HNG N GI THU MUA C PH TH

.............................................................................................................................................................. 14
1.

Bng thng k m t: .............................................................................................................. 14

2.

Chy E-view v c kt qu nghin cu ............................................................................... 14

2.1

Kim tra cc bnh ............................................................................................................. 15

2.2

ngha, kt qu: ............................................................................................................... 19

CHNG V: GI CHNH SCH IU CHNH GI THU MUA C PH TH .............. 21

CHNG I: TNG QUAN V TNH HNH C PH TI VIT NAM

1.

1.1

ngha ca vic la chn ti:

L do chn ti:

Nc Vit Nam nm trong vnh ai nhit i Bc bn cu. iu kin kh hu, a l

v t ai thch hp cho vic pht trin c ph em li cho c ph Vit Nam mt
hng v rt ring, c o. Hng nm kh hu nng lm ma nhiu. Lng ma phn
b u gia cc thng trong nm nht l nhng thng c ph sinh trng. Kh hu Vit
Nam chia thnh hai min r rt. Min kh hu pha nam thuc kh hu nhit i nng
m thch hp vi c ph Robusta. Min kh hu pha bc c ma ng lnh v c ma
phn thch hp vi c ph Arabica.
Ngoi ra, v t ai, Vit Nam c t bazan thch hp vi cy c ph c phn b
khp lnh th trong tp trung hai vng Ty Nguyn v ng Nam B, vi din
tch hng triu ha.
Nh vy cy c ph cn hai yu t c bn l nc v t th c hai yu t ny u c
Vit Nam. iu ny to cho Vit Nam li th m cc nc khc khng c c.

Bn cnh , Vit Nam vi dn s 80 triu ngi trong 49% l trong tui lao
ng. y l i ng lao ng kh di do, cung cp cho cc mi hot ng trong nn
kinh t quc dn. Sn xut c ph xut khu l mt qu trnh bao gm nhiu cng
on, bt u t khu nghin cu chon ging, gieo trng khu chm sc, thu mua, ch
bin, bo qun, bao gi , xut khu. Qu trnh ny i hi mt i ng lao ng kh
ln. c bit Vit Nam th vic ng dng my mc vo vic, sn xut ch bin c
ph cha nhiu v th li th v nhn cng c th gip nc ta gim rt nhiu chi ph
cho sn xut c ph xut khu t c th h gi thnh gip cho Vit Nam c th
cnh tranh c v gi so vi cc nc trn th gii.

Theo d tnh th vic sn xut c ph xut khu thu ht kh nhiu lao ng: 1 ha c
ph thu ht t 120.000- 200.000 lao ng. Ring nc ta hin nay c khong
700.000 800.000 lao ng sn xut c ph, c bit vo thi im chm sc, thu
hoch con s ny ln n hn 1 triu ngi. Hip hi c ph Vit Nam cho bit xut
khu c ph hai thng u nm 2014 c t 279.000 tn, thu v 519 triu USD, gim
13,7% v khi lng. u nm 2014, th trng c ph c nhng bin ng mnh, gi
c ph arabica tng ln mc cao k lc do Brazil (Nc xut khu c ph arabica ln
nht th gii) b hn hn nng, gii u c ghim hng nhm iu chnh gi.
Vic nm r cc nhn t nh hng n gi thu mua c ph th l mt cng vic ht
sc cn thit i vi nh nc, c nhng gii php hp l nhm kim sot gi c
ph, gip ngi dn thot ngho. V vy, nhm quyt nh chn vn nghin cu l:
Phn tch nhng nhn t nh hng n gi thu mua c ph th ca Vit Nam.
1.2 Li ch ti:
Ngoi tc dng gip chng ta tnh to, tng cng cc hot ng v tm thn v tr tu,
to s sng khoi tch cc v tm l, lm chng ta d tnh hn. Trong c ph cha cht
chng oxi ha v nhng cht dinh dng c li ci thin sc khe. C ph gip bn
bt mt mi v tng mc nng lng v trong c ph c cha cafein mt loi cht
truyn dn kch thch c ch thn kinh trong no, gip hng phn no b. Cht ny
gip ci thin tm trng, b nh, s cnh gic, tc phn ng v cc chc nng khc
ca no b. C ph cng cha nhng cht dinh dng thit yu: vitamin B5, B2,B3,
B1 V th c ph l mt thc ung ph bin rng ri v mang tnh ton cu. Trn
th gii hin nay, c hng t ngi ung c ph mi ngy.
Hi vng vi ti m nhm nghin cu s gip mt phn nh b vo vic tc ng ti
phng thc v k hoch kinh doanh ca ngi nng dn cng nh nhng doanh
nghip kinh doanh sn xut c ph trong vic ci thin gi thu mua c ph th nc
ta hin nay.

2.

Mc tiu v phm vi nghin cu

2.1

Mc tiu nghin cu:

2.1.1 Mc tiu chung:

Tm hiu nhn t nh hng n gi thu mua c ph ca Vit Nam.

2.1.2 Mc tiu c th:

Tm hiu cc nhn t nh hng gi thu mua c ph ca Vit Nam.
nh gi cc nhn t chnh nh hng n gi thu mua c ph Vit Nam.
2.2

Cu hi nghin cu:

Li sut trong nc c nh hng nh th no ti gi thu mua c ph th Vit Nam?

Sn lng v gi c ph th trong nc c nh hng nh th no ti gi thu ma c
ph th Vit Nam?
Sn lng tn kho c ph ca M v t gi hi oi c nh hng nh th no ti gi
thu mua c ph th Vit Nam?
Thu nhp quc dn ca Vit Nam c nh hng nh th no ti gi thu mua c ph
th trong nc?
Tm hiu cc kin ngh cc chnh sch ci thin v pht trin gi thu mua c ph th
Vit Nam ?
2.3

Phm vi nghin cu

Khng gian:Th trng c ph Vit Nam v th gii

Thi gian: giai on 1999-2011.

CHNG II: C S L LUN V CC YU T NH HNG TI GI

THU MUA C PH TH

1.

C s l lun

Anastasios Alexandridis (2010) c xut c tnh cc nhn t quyt nh ti gi

c ph nh sau: Pcf=f(Tt,Poil,Nc,Tg,Ls,CK,Ui).
Trong :
Tt l bin thi tit, nh hng rt ln ti vic trng v thu hoch c ph v c ph l
mt loi cy trng theo ma v.
Poil l bin du th, gi du cng nh hng rt ln ti gi c ph thng qua vic nh
hng gi u vo v phn bn nhin liu v vic vn chuyn.
Nc l bin ng cc, do vic chnh sch ca cc chnh ph u tin khuyn khch trng
ng cc m bo an ninh lng thc dn n l gim din tch canh tc c ph.
Tg l bin t gi hi i, lp lun rng t gi hi i nh hng n tt c cc giao
dch hng ha gia cc nc vi nhau v c ph khng phi l mt trng hp ngoi
l.
Ls l bin li sut, bin ny nh hng ti hng ha tn kho, nh hng ti vic u
t ca nh sn xut do c ph cng b nh hng.
CK l bin chng khon, s nh gi th trng ca S&P cng nh hng rt ln n
th trng c ph thng qua nhng thong tin m cng ty ny cung cp cho cc nh u
t.
Ui l tt c cc bin cn li cha c a vo m hnh, cn gi l sai s.
T trn c th d dng suy ra c rt nhiu yu t tc ng n gi c ph xut khu.
Mc d vy, s c rt nhiu s thiu st bin khi p dng vo th trng c ph Vit
Nam. Chng hn trong bi Cc nhn tc ng n gi hng ha c ph - cao su - thp
ca Ts. inh Th Hin - ng tc gi - th bin tng trng kinh t (TR) cng nh
hng ng k ti gi thu mua v tng trng cao th nhu cu hng ha s cao, ngoi
ra cn nu lm pht (Lf) cao th cc chi ph u vo cao dn n u ra cng cao, tc
l gi s cao.
7

Do , nu chng ta a thm cc bin v tng trng kinh t v lm pht vo m

hnh ca Anastasios Alexandridis th s ph hp hn i vi Vit Nam
Ngha l : Pcf=f(Tt,Poil,Nc,Tg,Ls,CK,TR, Lf,Ui).

2.

Thit lp m hnh tng qut

2.1

Bin ph thuc (Pcf: gi thu mua c ph)

T cc c s l lun m tham kho t m hnh ca Anastasios Alexandridis, ta

thy bin Pcf l bin biu th gi c ph, chu s tc ng rt nhiu yu t, khng th
ly mt bin no i din cho s nh hng ti gi c ph c. Tuy nhin, nhn
chung c th chia cc bin ny lm 2 nhm, mt nhm thuc v yu t v m ( Tg,Ls
CK,TR,Lf), v mt nhm thuc yu t vi m (Tt, Poil,Nc). Nhm v m nh hng
gin tip ti gi c ph, tc ng n ton b ngnh kinh t cn nhm vi m tc ng
trc tip n vic sn xut v nh gi c ph.

2.2

Bin c lp

2.2.1

Mi quan h ca sn lng c ph v gi thu mua c ph ca Vit Nam.

Theo m hnh nhm cung c ph ca Takamasa A kiyama v Panayotis N. Varangis

(1989), sn lng c ph v gi c ph c kh nng tc ng ln nhau. Khi gi tng s
lm cho sn lng tng ln v s c nhiu ngi trng c ph hn. Nhng khi sn
lng tng ln s lm cho gi gim xung bi v ngun cung vt qu cu. Tuy nhin,
trong phm vi nghin cu ca ti ny, chng ta ch xem xt s tc ng ca sn
lng ln gi c v trong ngn hn sn lng bnh qun khng th gia tng c bi v
phi mt t 3 n 4 nm th cy c ph mi cho thu hoch.
2.2.2 Mi quan h gia cht lng c ph gi thu mua c ph
Hin nay, tuy Vit Nam c nh gi l mt nc xut khu c ph s mt th gii
nhng cht lng c ph Vit nam lun thp hn nhng nc khc nn Vit Nam phi
xut khu vi gi rt thp.

Cht lng c ph l yu t nh hng trc tip n gi c ph. Theo Vinacafe (2011)

cho bit th cht lng ca c ph vi Vit Nam cha cao do yu km v khu thu hi
v cng ngh ch bin lc hu. Hin ti, cht lng c ph xut khu ca Vit Nam
c quy nh da trn Tiu chun quc gia TCVN 4193:2005 do B Nng nghip v
Pht trin nng thn p dng. Tiu chun ny p dng cho c ph nhn: c ph ch
(Arabica) v c ph vi (Robusta).
C mt m hnh ca Steven M. Shugan(1984),Price-Quality Relationships, nghin
cu v mi quan h gia gi c v cht lng thng qua hnh vi ngi tiu dng trn
cc th trng khc nhau. Bi vit trn a ra cc phng trnh quan h gia gi c v
cht lng. Cui cng kt lun rng gi c v cht lng c quan h phi tuyn tnh,
gi c phn nh mc cht lng. Mi quan h gia gi c v cht lng rt quan
trng v c ngha. Tuy nhin, yu t cht lng li l yu t kh o lng v rt t
bi nghin cu v vn ny v kh a vo m hnh nghin cu. Do vy, bin cht
lng thng c a vo sai s (Ui).

2.2.3 Mi quan h gia li sut v gi c ph

Trong m hnh ca Anastasios Alexandridis (2010) nhc n li sut c mt nh
hng ng k n th trng nng nghip ni chung nh hng n chi ph gi hng
tn kho, nh hng n quyt nh u t (t ai, my mc v u vo mua hng v
nh hng n kinh doanh cc nhnh nng nghip). trong bi ca Ts. inh Th Hin
li sut tc ng thng qua s vay vn sn xut v kinh doanh c ph xut khu.
Jeffrey A. Frankel (2006) The Effect Of Monetary Policy On Real Commodity Prices
v Jeffrey A. Frankel and Andrew K. Rose (2009), Determinants of Agricultural and
Mineral Commodity Prices cng cho kt qu tng t: t l li sut thc t l mt
yu t quyt nh quan trng v lng hng tn kho v gi c ca cc mt hng nng
sn v khong sn. Nghin cu cho rng li sut cao s lm gim nhu cu lu tr hng
ha, tng ngun cung cp dn n gim gi trn th trng ca hng ha. Khi t l li
sut thc t cao, tin chy ra khi cc mt hng, ging nh n chy ra khi ngoi t,
cc th trng mi ni v cc chng khon khc. Gim t l li sut thc t c tc
9

dng ngc li, lm gim chi ph i vi hng tn kho v nng cao gi c hng ha.
Khi t l li sut thc t thp, tin chy vo hng ha, chy vo ngoi t, th trng
mi ni, v cc chng khon.
Kt qu nghin cu cho ta thy mi quan h gia gi c hng ha v nh hng tiu
cc ca li sut i vi ch s gi c hng ho. iu nh hng tng t i vi c
ph.

2.2.4

Mi quan h gia t gi hi oi v gi c ph

Trong s lp lun ca Anastasios Alexandridis (2010) th t gi hi oi tc ng

n tt c cc giao dch hng ha nng nghip, trong c c ph, bi v c ph l
mt mt hng xut, nhp khu. Nh chng ta bit: t gi hi oi l gi ca ng
tin c tnh theo mt ng tin khc. T gi hi oi cng c hiu l t l trao i
gia hai ng tin ca hai quc gia khc nhau( http://www.cpv.org.vn). iu ny ch
ra rng hot ng ca th trng t gi hi i nh hng ln n gi trao i ca mt
hng c ph gia cc nc, do nh hng n sn xut v tiu th ca cc nc.
Vit Nam, t gi hi oi nh hng ti gi c ph, nh tc ng n cc hng ha
c bn khc. ng USD c dng hu ht cc giao dch thng mi hng ha ton
cu. S bin ng ca n gy nh hng rt ln n gi cc hng ha c bn. S gim
gi ca ng USD nh hng trc tip, khin gi c hng ha ca cc nc xut
khu cao hn i vi cc nc nhp khu lm hng ha gim sc cnh tranh. ng
thi, s xut hin xu hng u t nhiu hn vo nhng hng ha (vng v hng ha
c bn) do th trng chng khon(c phiu , tri phiu..) v bt ng sn gim sc
ht do b nh hng bi vic gim gi ng USD. T gi qua cng nh hng gin
tip ti s tng gi hng ha c bn, trong c c ph. Tuy nhin, tc ng ca t
gi hi oi n gi hng xut khu, y l gi c ph, thng c tr, nn cn
xem xt trong mt thi gian di.

2.2.5 Mi quan h gia tn kho c ph ti M v gi thu mua c ph.

10

Tnh hnh xut nhp khu ca Brazil, Vit Nam, Colombia nh hng rt ln n
ngun cung. y mnh kim ngch xut khu, ngun cung tng dn n gi c ph
gim. Tng t nhu cu nhp khu tng gim cng s nh hng n gi .Cu gim
gi gim. Cu tng gi tng.
Bo co tn kho ca c ph trn cc sn giao dch Th Gii s cho thy s thay i
ca ngun cung v ngun cu. Do th trng xut khu ln nht ca Vit Nam l M
v c nn y chng ta ch nghin cu sn lng tn kho ca th trng M.

11

CHNG III: TNG QUAN V PHNG PHP NGHIN CU CC NHN

T NH HNG TI GI THU MUA C PH TH

1.

Gi thit nghin cu:

T cc c s l thuyt v m hnh tham kho trn, chng ta c th thy c rt nhiu

yu t nh hng ti gi c ph Vit Nam nht l trong bi cnh ton cu ha v hi
nhp kinh t th gii. Cc nhn t an xen v tc ng ln nhau nn ta kh xc nh
u l nhn t chnh, u l nhn t ph. Tuy nhin, qua tm hiu v nghin cu,
nhm chng em nhn thy c cc nhn t ni bt nh hng ti gi c ph Vit Nam.
Cc nhn t c chia lm 2 nhm. Nhm nhn t trong nc: iu kin t nhin, t
ai, kh hu, sn lng, li sut ngn hng, chnh sch nh nc, c ch qun l, php
lut Nhm nhn t ngoi nc: t gi hi oi, gi c ph th gii, th trng
chng khon, chnh tr Trong mi nhm, c cc nhn t sau y c cho l nh
hng nhiu v trc tip n gi c ph Vit Nam:
- Sn lng c ph: tc ng trc tip n gi c ph Vit Nam qua c ch cung cu.
Sn lng tng th gi c ph gim, sn lng gim th gi c ph tng.
- T gi hi oi: t gi hi oi thay i cho thy gi c ph Vit Nam t hn hay r
hn mt cch tng i so vi gi c ph th gii.
- Li sut ngn hng: li sut l gi c ca ng tin, nh hng n u t my mc
thit b, cng ngh vo ngnh c ph v t nh hng n gi c ph.
- Tn kho M: lng c ph tn kho cc nc nhp khu c th l M nh hng
trc tip n gi c ph Vit Nam thng qua quy lut cung cu. Lng c ph tn
kho M gim th lm cho cu c ph tng ln khin gi tng ln v ngc li.

2.

M hnh nghin cu xut:

12

Gi thu mua
c ph

Nhn t trong
nc

Sn
lng
c ph

3.

GDP
(triu
VND/
ngi
)

Nhn t nc
ngoi

Li
sut
ngn
hng

T gi
hi
oi

Gi
c
ph
M

Tn
kho
c
ph
m

Ngun s liu v cch thu thp s liu

Cch thu thp s liu th cp t cc ngun c th sau:

Cc nhn t

Ngun d liu

ng dnz

Li sut

Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam

sbv.gov.vn

T gi hi oi

Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam

sbv.gov.vn

Sn lng c ph

Sn giao dch c ph

giacaphe.com

Tn kho M

United States Department of

http://usda01.library.cornell.edu

Agriculture

http://doc.edu.vn

13

CHNG IV: KT QU NGHIN CU CC NHN T NH HNG N

GI THU MUA C PH TH

1. Bng thng k m t:

500000

Li
sut
ngn
hng
( %/
nm)
5,35

53.653,440

5,13

13.143

720000

9,00

220.414,020

5,61

5450

9.028

900000

7,20

171.426,420

6,04

2002

7500

10.361

750000

7,44

161.291,400

6,63

2003

8500

13.096

720000

7,50

261.689,520

7,50

2004

11500

12.906

700000

7,50

270.563,100

8,62

2005

26400

18.609

752100

8,25

232.412,100

9,98

2006

26700

24.733

910000

8,25

222.645,960

11,42

2007

30000

31.229

8,25

268.272,300

13,16

2008

32000

37.296

8,50

264.955,080

16,88

2009

41000

28.884

8,00

185.182,080

18,37

2010

38000

35.223

9,00

102.319,680

21,84

2011

40000

52.933

915800
105580
0
105750
0
110050
0
116790
0

9,00

85.859,220

27,49

Gi thu
mua
caf th
( VND/
kg)

Gi
caf ti
M
( VND
/ kg)

Sn
lng
thu
hoch
( tn)

1999

16750

20.710

2000

8500

2001

Yu
t
Nm

2. Chy E-view v c kt qu nghin cu

T s liu trn ta c kt qu hi quy t eview nh sau:

14

Tn kho
caf ti
M
( tn)

GDP
(triu
VND/
ngi)

M hnh 1
2.1

Kim tra cc bnh

2.1.1 a cng tuyn:

T eview ta c bng h s tng quan sau:

T bng trn c th thy c c hin tng a cng tuyn gia GDP vi GIAMY v
GDP vi Q

Cha bnh
Ta loi b bin GDP ra khi m hnh, t kt qu eview ta c m hnh hi qui mi
sau:

15

M hnh 2
Nu ta khng loi b bin GDP m loi b bin GIAMY hoc bin Q th hin tng
a cng tuyn vn cn (c th gia GDP v GIAMY hoc GDP v Q), do nu
khng loi b bin GDP th hin tng a cng tuyn khng xy ra buc ta phi
loi b c 2 bin GIAMY v Q. M hnh hi qui thu c khi loi b c 2 bin
GIAMY v Q l:

16

M hnh 3
C m hnh 2 v 3 u khng cn hin tng a cng tuyn, nhng R hiu chnh m
hnh 3 ln hn R hiu chnh m hnh 2 (0.742674>0.703843) nn m hnh 3 tt hn
m hnh 2.
2.1.2 Phng sai thay i:
Ta tin hnh thc hin kim nh White i vi m hnh3 . Kt qu eview thu c:

17

V Prob. Chi-Square = 20.84% > alpha = 5% nn m hnh trn khng b hin tng
phng sai thay i.
2.1.3 T tng quan
Ta ly li m hnh 3:

18

Thc hin kim nh Durbin-Watson ta thy gi tr kim nh d=1.177532 tha mn:

1<d<3. Do m hnh trn khng b hin tng t tng quan.
2.2

ngha, kt qu:

2.2.1 ngha:

Khi GDP u ngi tng(gim) 1 triu VN th gi c ph tng(gim)

1969.205 VN

Khi li sut ngn hng tng(gim) 1% th gi c ph gim(tng) 2419.654 VN

Khi khi lng c ph tn kho ca M tng(gim) 1 tn th gi c ph

tng(gim) 0.023738 VN
2.2.2 Kim nh h s, m hnh:

V Prob(GDP)=0.13% < alpha=5% nn bin GDP c ngha thng k hay thc

s tc ng n gi c ph.

V Prob(I)=44.38% > alpha=5% nn bin li sut I khng c ngha thng k

hay khng thc s tc ng n gi c ph.

19


V Prob(TONKHO)=49.77% nn bin TONKHO khng c ngha thng k
hay khng thc s tc ng n gi c ph.

V Prob(F-statistic)=0.1447% < alpha=5% nn m hnh ph hp.

20

CHNG V: GI CHNH SCH IU CHNH GI THU MUA C

PH TH
T nm 2009 tr v trc, mi khi vo v thu hoch (thng 10 thng 11) l gi c
ph lin tc lao dc do ngun cung di do khi b con nng dn v nh xut khu y
mnh bn ra. Gi thng gim su vo gia v hoc thi im gip Tt nguyn n
bi nhu cu tin mt tng cao. Nh u c cng tn dng c hi ny gom hng, sau
ch n khong thng 3 thng 5 nm sau, khi ngun hng ca v thu hoch
gn nh cn kit th bt u y gi ln cht li.
Tuy nhin khong thi gian sau ny, nhiu ngi sn xut cng nm r xu hng
ny nn gi hng ch gi cao hn bn. Khi ngi trng c ph v nh xut khu
iu tit c ngun cung, gi c ph cng tun theo quy lut ca cung cu nhiu
hn, thay v ph thuc phn ln vo u c nh trc y. Nhiu lc, ng thi ca
ngnh c ph nc ta cn iu khin c c gi trn th trng k hn London v
gi giao ngay ti chu u, vt qua c nhng tc ng ca bin ng tin t v cc
yu t kinh t v m ton cu.
iu tit ngun cung cn thng qua tham kho thng tin cung cu, kinh t v m,
gi c th trng trong nc v quc t. Cc nh xut khu th hn ch k cc hp
ng giao xa gim thiu nhng ri ro v gi c. iu ny gip gi c ph duy tr
mc cao ngay c khi thi im gia v. Nu c, nn thc hin Hp ng xut khu
theo phng thc giao hng FCA thay v FOB. Hin nay, hu ht cc l c ph giao
cho nh nhp khu bng container, m giao hng bng container th khng th giao
hng ngay ti mn tu, m phi giao hng cho ngi chuyn ch ti cc bi
container , hay ti cc trm giao hng l ( gi l CFS Container Freight Station )
trn b. Vic kim tra giao nhn ny phi mt t 5 n 7 ngy, ma xut khu cao
im phi mt n 10 ngy hoc hn. Thit hi ca doanh nghip chnh l giao
hng cho nh nhp khu nhng cha th ly c tin t ngn hng do cha ly c
chng nhn hng ha, c bit trong tnh hnh t gi bin ng nh hin nay.

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DANH MC TI LIU THAM KHO

1. Hong Ngc Nhm, Gio trnh Kinh t lng, i hc kinh t thnh ph H Ch

Minh.
2. Casella v Berger, 2001, Statistical Inference
3. Wackerly et al, 2007, Mathematical Statistics with Applications
4. Gujarati, Basic Econometrics
5. Green, 2007 Econometrics analysis
6. Website ca Tng cc Thng k Vit Nam http://www.gso.gov.vn
7. Website ca B k hoch u t Cc u t nc ngoi http://fdi.mpi.gov.vn.
8. Website ca Ngn hng th gii http://www.worldbank.org/vi/country/vietnam
9. Website ca Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam http://www.sbv.gov.vn
10.Website ca sn giao dch caf

http://www.giacafe.com

11. Lun vn: Phn tch cc yu t nh hng n sn lng caf bng kinh t
lng: http://doc.edu.vn/tai-lieu/chuyen-de-phan-tich-cac-nhan-to-tac-dong-den-sanluong-ca-phe-bang-mo-hinh-kinh-te-luong-71101/

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