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a)
P(X 1 1) = 1 P(X 1 = 0) = 1
e 2 2 0
= 1 e2 = 0, 8647.
0!
e 6 , 6 (6 , 6 ) 0
e 6 , 6 (6 , 6 ) 1
= 0,0103.
+
0!
1!
c) Lai xe phai ch t mat may chuyen e xac suat co t nhat mot chuyen
c thng khong nho hn 0,9?
Goi n la so chuyen xe can thc hien va A la bien co co t nhat 1 chuyen
c thng. Yeu cau bai toan la xac nh n nho nhat sao cho P(A) 0,9.
Bien co oi lap cua A la: A khong co chuyen nao c thng.
Theo cau b), xac suat e lai xe c thng trong mot chuyen la p =
0,0103. Do o theo cong thc Bernoulli ta co:
Suy ra
Bai 2.2: Mot may tnh gom 1000 linh kien A, 800 linh kien B va 2000
linh kien C. Xacsuat hong cua ba linh kien o lan lt la 0,02%; 0,0125%
va 0,005%. May tnh ngng hoat ong khi so linh kien hong nhieu hn 1.
Cac linh kien hong oc lap vi nhau.
a) Tnh xacsuat e co t nhat 1 linh kien B b hong.
b) Tnh xac suat e may tnh ngng hoat ong.
c) Gia s trong may a co 1 linh kien hong. Tnh xac suat e may tnh
ngng hoat ong.
Li giai
A
1000
0,02%
B
C
800
2000
0,0125% 0,005%
Goi X1 la LNN ch so linh kien A b hong trong mot may tnh. Khi
o, X1 co phan phoi nh thc X1 B(n1,p1) vi n1 = 1000 va p1 =
0,02% = 0,0002. V n1 kha ln va p1 kha be nen ta co the xem X1 co
phan phan phoi Poisson:
X1 P(a1) vi a1 = n1p1 = 1000.0,0002 =0,2, ngha la
X1 P(0,2).
P(X 2 1) = 1 P(X 2 = 0) = 1
Tom tat:
Loai linh kien
So lng/1may
Xac suat 1linh kien hong
Theo gia thiet, may tnh ngng hoat ong khi so linh kien hong nhieu
hn 1, ngha la khi
X1 + X2 + X3 > 1.
e0,1 (0,1)0
= 1 e0,1 = 0, 0952.
0!
0!
1!
Bai 2.3: Trong lng cua mot loai san pham c quan sat la mot ai
lng ngau nhien co phan phoi chuan vi trung bnh 50kg va phng sai
100kg2 . Nhng san pham co trong lng t 45kg en 70kg c xep vao
loai A. Chon ngau nhien 100 san pham (trong rat nhieu san pham). Tnh
xac suat e
a) co ung 70 san pham loai A.
b) co khong qua 60 san pham loai A.
c) co t nhat 65 san pham loai A.
Li giai
Trc het ta tm xac suat e mot san pham thuoc loai A.
Goi X0 la trong lng cua loai san pham a cho. T gia thiet
X0 co phan phoi chuan X0 N(0, 02) vi 0 = 50, 02 = 100
V mot san pham c xep vao loai A khi co trong lng t
70kg nen xac suat e mot san pham thuoc loai A la P(45 X0
ta suy ra
(0 = 10).
45kg en
70).
4,7068
4,7068
= (7, 0388) (0, 40) = (5) + (0, 4) = 0, 5 + 0,1554 = 0, 6554 = 65, 54%.
P (65 X 100) = (
Ta co
P(45 X 0 70) = (
70 0
45 0
70 50
45 50
) (
) = (
) (
)
0
0
10
10
1 70
1
70 66, 87
f(
)=
f(
)
4, 7068
4, 7068
1
0, 3209
=
f (0, 66) =
= 0, 0681 = 6, 81%.
4, 7068
4, 7068
P (X = 70) =
4,7068
4,7068
= (1, 46) (14, 21) = (1, 46) + (14, 21) = (1, 46) + (5)
P (0 X 60) = (
Bai 2.4: San pham trong mot nha may c ong thanh tng kien, moi
kien gom 14 san pham trong o co 8 san pham loai A va 6 san pham loai
B. Khach hang chon cach kiem tra nh sau: t moi kien lay ra 4 san
pham; neu thay so san pham thuoc loai A nhieu hn so san pham thuoc
loai B th mi nhan kien o; ngc lai th loai kien o. Kiem tra 100
kien (trong rat nhieu kien). Tnh xac suat e
a) co 42 kien c nhan.
b) co t 40 en 45 kien c nhan.
c) co t nhat 42 kien c nhan.
Li giai
Trc het ta tm xac suat e mot kien c nhan.
Theo gia thiet, moi kien cha 14 san pham gom 8A va 6B. T moi kien
lay ra 4 san pham; neu thay so san pham A nhieu hn so san pham B,
ngha la c 3A,1B hoac 4A, th mi nhan kien o. Do o xac suat e
mot kien c nhan la:
P4 (3 k 4) = P4 (3) + P4 (4) =
C38C16 C48C06
+ 4 = 0, 4056
4
C14
C14
P (X = 42) =
=
1 42
1
42 40, 56
1
f(
)=
f(
)=
f (0, 29)
4, 9101
4, 9101
4, 9101
0, 3825
= 0, 0779 = 7, 79%.
4, 9101
45
40
45 40, 56
40 40, 56
) (
) = (
) (
)
4, 9101
4, 9101
= (0, 90) (0,11) = (0, 90) + (0,11) = 0, 3159 + 0, 0438 = 0, 3597 = 35, 97%.
P (40 X 45) = (
Li giai
Trc het ta tm xac suat p e mot kien c nhan.
Goi C la bien co kien hang c nhan. Ta can tm p = P(C).
T gia thiet ta suy ra co hai loai kien hang:
Loai I: gom 6A, 4B chiem 0,9 = 90%.
Loai II: gom 8A, 2B chiem 0,1 = 10%.
Goi A1, A2 lan lt la cac bien co kien hang thuoc loai I, II. Khi o A1,
A2 la mot he ay u, xung khac tng oi va ta co
P(A1) = 0,9; P(A2) = 0,1.
Theo cong thc xac suat ay u ta co:
P(C) = P(A1) P(C/A1) + P(A2) P(C/A2).
Theo gia thiet, t moi kien lay ra 2 san pham; neu ca 2 san pham thuoc
loai A th mi nhan kien o. Do o:
4, 9101
4, 9101
= (12) (0, 29) = 0, 50 0,1141 = 0, 3859 = 38, 59%.
(0,29) =
Bai 2.5: San pham trong mot nha may c ong thanh tng kien, moi
kien gom 10 san pham So san pham loai A trong cac hop la X co phan
phoi nh sau:
X
0,9
0,1
Khach hang chon cach kiem tra nh sau: t moi kien lay ra 2 san pham;
neu thay ca 2 san pham eu loai A th mi nhan kien o; ngc lai th
loai kien o. Kiem tra 144 kien (trong rat nhieu kien).
a) Tnh xac suat e co 53 kien c nhan.
b) Tnh xac suat e co t 52 en 56 kien c nhan.
c) Phai kiem tra t nhat bao nhieu kien e xac suat co t nhat 1 kien
c nhan khong nho hn 95%?
7
P(C / A 1 ) = P2 (2) =
C26C04 1
= ;
2
C10
3
P(C / A 2 ) = P2 (2) =
C28C02 28
=
.
2
C10
45
Suy ra
P(C) = 0,9. (1/3) + 0,1.(28/45) = 0,3622.
Vay xac suat e mot kien c nhan la p = 0,3622.
Bay gi, kiem tra 144 kien. Goi X la so kien c nhan trong 144 kien
c kiem tra, th X co phan phoi nh thc X B(n,p) vi n = 144, p =
0,3622. V n = 144 kha ln va p = 0,3622 khong qua gan 0 cung khong
qua gan 1 nen ta co the xem X co phan phoi chuan nh sau:
X N(, 2)
vi
= np = 144.0,3622 = 52,1568;
= npq = 144.0, 3622.(1 0, 3622) = 5, 7676.
Suy ra
1
90 80
70 80
1
90 60
70 60
= [(
) (
)] + [(
) (
)]
2
4
4
2
4, 899
4, 899
1
= [(2, 5) (2, 5) + (6,12) (2, 04)]
2
1
= (0, 49379 + 0, 49379 + 0, 5 0, 47932)
2
= 0, 50413
c) Xac suat co khong t hn 70 san pham at tieu chuan la
P(70 X 100) =0,5072
(Tng t cau b)
Bai 2.7: Mot may san xuat san pham vi t le phe pham la 1% va mot
may khac cung san xuat loai san pham nay vi t le phe pham la 2%.
10
Chon ngau nhien mot may va cho san xuat 1000 san pham. Tnh xac
suat e
a) co 14 phe pham.
b) co t 14 en 20 phe pham.
Li giai
Goi X la LNN ch so phe pham trong 1000 san pham.
A1, A2 lan lt la cac bien co chon c may 1, may 2.
Khi o A1, A2 la mot he ay u, xung khac tng oi va ta co:
P(A1) = P(A2) = 0,5.
Theo cong thc xac xuat ay u, vi moi 0 k 100, ta co:
1
2
20
k =14
e10 10k 1
+
k!
2
20
k =14
e20 20k
= 31, 35%
k!
Bai 2.8: Mot x nghiep co hai may I va II. Trong ngay hoi thi, moi cong
nhan d thi c phan mot may va vi may o se san xuat 100 san
pham. Neu so san pham loai A khong t hn 70 th cong nhan o se c
thng. Gia s oi vi cong nhan X, xac suat san xuat c 1 san pham
loai A vi cac may I va II lan lt la 0,6 va 0,7.
a) Tnh xac suat e cong nhan X c thng.
b) Gia s cong nhan X d thi 50 lan. So lan c thng tin chac nhat la
bao nhieu?
Li giai
Goi Y la LNN ch so san pham loai A co trong 100 san pham c san
xuat.
A1, A2 lan lt la cac bien co chon c may I, may II.
Khi o A1, A2 la mot he ay u, xung khac tng oi va ta co:
P(A1) = P(A2) = 0,5.
Theo cong thc xac xuat ay u, vi moi 0 k 100, ta co:
2 =
12
1
1
P(70 X1 100)+ P(70 X 2 100)
2
2
1 100 1
70 1
1 100 2
70 2
= [(
) (
)] + [(
) (
)]
2
2
1
1
2
2
P(70 Y 100) =
1 100 60
70 60
1 100 70
70 70
= [(
) (
)] + [(
) (
)]
2
4, 899
4, 899
2
4, 5826
4, 5826
1
1
= [(8,16) (2, 04) + (6, 55) (0)]= (0, 5 0, 47932 + 0, 5) = 0, 2603
2
2
b) Gia s cong nhan X d thi 50 lan. So lan c thng tin chac nhat la
bao nhieu?
Goi Z la LNN ch so lan cong nhan X c thng. Khi o Z co
phan phoi nh thc Z B(n,p) vi n = 50, p = 0,2603. So lan c
thng tin chac nhat chnh la Mod(Z). Ta co:
Mod(Z) = k np q k np q + 1
50.0, 2603 0, 7397 k 50.0, 2603 0, 7397 + 1
12, 2753 k 13, 2753 k = 13
Vay so lan c thng tin chac nhat cua cong nhan X la 13 lan.
Bai 2.9: Trong ngay hoi thi, moi chien s se chon ngau nhien mot trong
hai loai sung va vi khau sung chon c se ban 100vien an. Neu co t
65 vien tr len trung bia th c thng. Gia s oi vi chien s A, xac
suat ban 1 vien trung bia bang khau sung loai I la 60% va bang khau
sung loai II la 50%.
a) Tnh xac suat e chien s A c thng.
b) Gia s chien s A d thi 10 lan. Hoi so lan c thng tin chac nhat
la bao nhieu?
c) Chien s A phai tham gia hoi thi t nhat bao nhieu lan e xac suat co
t nhat mot lan c thng khong nho hn 98%?
Li giai
Goi X la LNN ch so vien trung trong 100 vien c ban ra.
Goi A1, A2 lan lt la cac bien co chon c khau sung loai I, II.
Khi o A1, A2 la mot he ay u, xung khac tng oi va ta co:
P(A1) = P(A2) = 0,5.
Theo cong thc xac xuat ay u, vi moi 0 k 100, ta co:
13
Nh
vien
(1)
1
1
= P(X=k/A1 )+ P(X=k/A 2 )
2
2
vay, goi X1, X2 lan lt la cac LNN ch so vien trung trong 100
c ban ra trong trng hp chon c khau loai I, II. Khi o:
1
1
P(X = k) = P(X1 =k)+ P(X 2 =k)
(1) cho ta
2
2
X1 co phan phoi nh thc X1 B(n1,p1) vi n1 = 100, p1 = 0,6. V n1
= 100 kha ln va p1 = 0,6 khong qua gan 0 cung khong qua gan 1
nen ta co the xem X1 co phan phoi chuan nh sau:
X1 N(1, 12)
vi
1 = n1p1 = 100.0,6 = 60;
1 = n1p1q1 = 100.0, 6.0, 4 = 4, 8990.
2 =
1
1
P(65 X1 100)+ P(65 X 2 100)
2
2
1 100 1
65 1
1 100 2
65 2
= [(
) (
)] + [(
) (
)]
1
1
2
2
2
2
P(65 X 100) =
1 100 60
65 60
1
100 50
65 50
= [(
) (
)] + [(
) (
)]
2
4, 899
4, 899
2
5
5
1
1
= [(8,16) (1, 02) + (10) (3)]= (0, 5 0, 34614 + 0, 5 0, 49865) = 0, 0776.
2
2
Vay so lan c thng tin chac nhat cua chien s A la 0 lan, noi cach
khac, thng la chien s A khong c thng lan nao trong 10 lan tham
gia.
c) Chien s A phai tham gia hoi thi t nhat bao nhieu lan e xac suat co
t nhat mot lan c thng khong nho hn 98%?
Suy ra
0
p0
1
p1
2
p2
3
p3
4
p4
15
X
0
1
2
3
4
P
0,0016 0,0256 0,1536 0,4096 0,4096
b) Tm ky vong va phng sai cua X.
- Ky vong: M(X) = np = 3,2.
- Phng sai: D(X) = npq = 0,64.
Bai 2.11: Co hai lo hang I va II, moi lo cha rat nhieu san pham. T le
san pham loai A co trong hai lo I va II lan lt la 70% va 80%. Lay
ngau nhien t moi lo 2 san pham.
a) Tnh xac suat e so san pham loai A lay t lo I ln hn so san pham
loai A lay t lo II.
b) Goi X la so san pham loai A co trong 4 san pham c lay ra. Tm ky
vong va phng sai cua X.
Li giai
Goi X1, X2 lan lt la cac LNN ch so sp loai A co trong 2 sp c
chon ra t lo I, II. Khi o
X1 co phan phoi nh thc X1 B(n1, p1); n1 = 2; p1 = 70% = 0,7
vi cac xac suat nh bi:
Cu the
0
1
2
X1
P
0,09 0,42 0,49
X2 co phan phoi nh thc X2 B(n2, p2); n2 = 2; p2 = 80% = 0,8
vi cac xac suat nh bi:
Cu the
X2
P
0
0,04
16
1
2
0,32 0,64
Li giai
Goi X1, X2 lan lt la cac LNN ch so bi o co trong 2 bi c chon
ra t hop I, hop II. Khi o
- X1 co phan phoi sieu boi X1 H(N1, N1A, n1); N1 = 10; N1A= 6; n1 =
2 vi cac xac suat nh bi:
P(X 1 = k) =
CC
C
k
2 k
10
Cu the
X1
P
0
1
2
6/45 24/45 15/45
P(X 2
= k) = C C
C
k
2k
X2
P
0
1
2
3/45 21/45 21/45
0 1
0 1
1 2
2 3
2
3
4
X
P
trong o:
p0 = P(X =
p1 = P(X =
p2 = P(X =
p3 = P(X =
p4 = P(X =
0)= P(X1
1)= P(X1
2) = 1/3;
3)= P(X1
4)= P(X1
0
p0
17
2
p2
3
p3
4
p4
0
1
2
3
4
2/225 22/225 1/3 91/225 7/45
10
Cu the
1
p1
18
Bai 2.13: Mot may san xuat san pham vi t le phe pham 10%. Mot lo
hang gom 10 san pham vi t le phe pham 30%. Cho may san xuat 3 san
pham va t lo hang lay ra 3 san pham. Goi X la so san pham tot co trong
6 san pham nay.
a) Tm luat phan phoi cua X.
b) Khong dung luat phan phoi cua X, hay tnh M(X), D(X).
Li giai
Goi X1, X2 lan lt la cac LNN ch so sp tot co trong 3 san pham do
may san xuat; do lay t lo hang. Khi o X1, X2 oc lap va ta co:
- X1 co phan phoi nh thc X1 B(n1, p1); n1 = 3; p1 = 0,9. Cu the
ta co:
trong o:
p0 = P(X = 0)= P(X1 = 0)P(X2 = 0) = 1/120000;
p1 = P(X = 1)= P(X1 = 0)P(X2 = 1) + P(X1 = 1)P(X2 = 0) = 1/2500;
p2 = P(X = 2) = P(X1 = 0)P(X2 = 2) + P(X1 = 1)P(X2 = 1) + P(X1 = 2)P(X2 =0)
= 291/40000
p3 = P(X = 3) = P(X1 = 0)P(X2 = 3) + P(X1 = 1)P(X2 = 2) + P(X1 = 2)P(X2 =1)
+ P(X1 = 3)P(X2=0) = 473/7500
p4 = P(X = 4) = P(X1 = 1)P(X2 = 3) + P(X1 = 2)P(X2 = 2) + P(X1 = 3)P(X2 = 1)
= 10521/40000
p5 = P(X = 5) = P(X1 = 2) P(X2 = 3) + P(X1 = 3)P(X2 = 2) = 567/1250
p6 = P(X = 6) = P(X1 = 3)P(X2 = 3) = 1701/8000.
Vay luat phan phoi cua X la:
X
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
P 1/120000 1/2500 291/40000 473/7500 10521/40000 576/1250 1701/8000
CC
C
= 1) = C C
C
= 2) = C C
C
= 3) = C C
C
P(X 2 = 0) =
1
;
120
21
;
120
63
;
120
35
=
.
120
10
P(X 2
10
P(X 2
10
P(X 2
10
Bai 2.14: Cho hai hop I va II, moi hop co 10 bi; trong o hop I gom 8 bi
o, 2 bi trang va hop II gom 6 bi o, 4 bi trang. Rut ngau nhien t hop I
hai bi bo sang hop II, sau o rut ngau nhien t hop II ba bi.
a) Tnh xac suat e c ca 3 bi trang.
b) Goi X la ai lng ngau nhien ch so bi trang co trong ba bi c rut
ra t hop II. Tm luat phan phoi cua X. Xac nh ky vong va phng sai
cua X.
Li giai
Goi X la LNN ch so bi trang co trong 3 bi rut ra t hop II.
Ai (i = 0, 1, 2) la bien co co i bi trang va (2-i) bi o co trong 2 bi lay ra t
hop I. Khi o A0, A1, A2 la he bien co ay u, xung khac tng oi va ta
co:
X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
P p0 p1 p2 p3 p4 p5 p6
19
20
CC
C
P(A ) = C C
C
P(A ) = C C
C
0
P(A 0 ) =
16
=
;
45
10
10
28
;
45
0
8
10
1
.
45
Ma
CC
C
P(X = 3 / A ) = C C
C
P(X = 3 / A ) = C C
C
3
P(X = 3 / A 0 ) =
0
8
4
;
220
10
;
220
20
.
220
12
12
3
6
0
6
12
28 C 4C 8 16 C5C7
1 C 6C 6
+
+
= 179 / 825;
.
.
.
3
3
45 C
45 C
45 C 3
0
p 0 = P(X = 0) =
12
12
12
28 C 4C 8 16 C 5C7
1 C 6C 6
+
+
= 223 / 450;
p1 = P(X = 1) =
.
.
.
3
3
3
45 C12
45 C12
45 C12
1
28 C 4C 8 16 C5C7
1 C 6C 6
+
+
= 1277 / 4950;
.
.
.
3
3
3
45 C12
45 C12
45 C12
2
p 2 = P(X = 2) =
p3 = P(X= 3) = 73/2475.
Suy ra luat phan phoi cua X la:
X
P
0
1
2
3
179/825 223/450 1277/4950 73/2475
0
p0
1
p1
2
p2
3
p3
21
22
CC
C
)=CC
C
)=CC
C
1
P(C / A1 ) =
15
525
;
1140
546
;
1140
546
.
1140
20
P(C / A 2
14
20
P(C / A 3
13
20
2.16: Mot ngi co 5 cha khoa be ngoai rat giong nhau, trong o ch co 2
cha m c ca. Ngi o tm cach m ca bang cach th tng cha mot
cho en khi m c ca th thoi (tat nhien, cha nao khong m c th
loai ra). Goi X la so cha khoa ngi o s dung. Tm luat phan phoi cua
X. Hoi ngi o thng phai th bao nhieu cha mi m c ca? Trung
bnh ngi o phai th bao nhieu cha mi m c ca?
Li giai
Ta thay X la LNN ri rac nhan 4 gia tr: 1, 2, 3, 4. Luat phan phoi cua
X co dang:
0
p0
1
p1
2
p2
3
p3
5
15
; P(B1 ) =
;
20
20
6
14
P(B2 ) =
; P(B2 ) =
;
20
20
7
13
P(B3 ) =
; P(B3 ) =
.
20
20
P(B1 ) =
Ta co
" X = 0 " = B1B2B3 P(X = 0) = P(B1 )P(B2 )p(B3 ) = 273 / 800
" X = 1" = B1B2B3 + B1B2B3 + B1B2B3
X
P
0
1
2
3
273/800 71/160 151/800 21/800
23
4
p4
3
p3
P(X = 1) = P(B1 )P(B2 )P(B3 ) + P(B1 )P(B2 )P(B3 ) + P(B1 )P(B2 )P(B3 ) = 71 / 160
P(X = 2) = P(B1 )P(B2 )P(B3 ) + P(B1 )P(B2 )P(B3 ) + P(B1 )P(B2 )P(B3 ) = 151 / 800
1 2
p1 p2
1
2/5
2
3
4
3/10 1/5 1/10
xipi = 2 .
24
trung ch cua moi vien an ban ra la 0,8. Goi X la ai lng ngau nhien
ch so vien an ngi ay s dung trong cuoc san.
a) Tm luat phan phoi cua X.
b) Tm ky vong va phng sai cua X.
X
P
2
p2
3
p3
4
p4
Li giai
a) Ta thay X la LNN ri rac nhan 5 gia tr: 1, 2,..., 5. Luat phan phoi
cua X co dang:
X
1
2
3 4 5
P
p1
p2
p3 p4 p5
Goi Aj (j = 1,2,..., 5) la bien co vien an th j trung ch. Khi o:
P(A j ) = 0, 8; P(A j ) = 0, 2
P(A j ) = 0, 8; P(A j ) = 0, 2
Ta co:
P(X = 2) = P(A1 A 2 ) = P(A 1 )P(A 2 ) = 0, 8.0, 8 = 0, 64;
P(X = 3) = P(A1 A 2 A 3 + A1 A 2 A 3 ) = P(A1 A 2 A 3 ) + P(A1 A 2 A 3 )
= P(A1 )P(A 2 )P(A 3 ) + P(A1 )P(A 2 )P(A 3 ) = 0, 2.0, 8.0, 8 + 0, 8.0, 2.0, 8 = 0, 256
P(X = 4) = P(A1A 2 A 3 + A 1A 2 A 3 + A1 A 2 A 3 + A1 A 2 A 3 )
Ta co:
P(X=1) = P(A1) = 0,8.
= P(A1 )P(A 2 )P(A 3 ) + P(A1 )P(A 2 )P(A 3 ) + P(A1 )P(A 2 )P(A 3 ) + P(A1 )P(A 2 )P(A 3 )
3
4
5
0,032 0,0064 0,0016
X
P
2
3
4
0,64 0,256 0,104
Bai 2.18: Mot ngi th san co 4 vien an. Ngi o i san vi nguyen
tac: neu ban 2 vien trung muc tieu th ve ngay, khong i san na. Biet
xac suat trung ch cua moi vien an ban ra la 0,8. Goi X la ai lng
ngau nhien ch so vien an ngi ay s dung trong cuoc san.
a) Tm luat phan phoi cua X.
b) Tm ky vong va phng sai cua X.
Li giai
a) Ta thay X la LNN ri rac nhan 3 gia tr: 2, 3, 4. Luat phan phoi cua
X co dang:
25
26