The least squares estimate of the slope coefficient B, of the true regression line is . (@, — DY, - ¥ Sy =p, = 2% — BU-» _ “» Be Bs Tex, — HF Ss 2) Computing formulas for the numerator and denominator of B, are Sy = Uxy, — (Ux(Lyjin Spo = Ex? — Ox)'n The least squares estimate of the intercept Bp of the true regression line is =y- Be (12.3) The error sum of squares (equivalently, residual sum of squares), denoted by SSE, is SSE = Lo, — 3? = Db, - By + Bex dP and the estimate of a? is SSE _ 30,- 5% n-2 n-2 Gaga SSE = Sy? -— Bydy, — REx,SST = S, = Z, ~ 9 = Ly? — By)" ‘The coefficient of determination, denoted by r?, is given by It is interpreted as the proportion of observed y variation that can be explained by the simple linear regression model (attributed to an approximate linear relationship between y and x). SSR = 3(5, — 3) = SST — SSE. r? = 1 — SSE/SST = (SST — SSE)/SST = SSR/SST ‘The variance and standard deviation of , are By=02= 2 vB) z VE (12.4) where S,, = D(x, — 3? = Ex} — (Zx,P/n. Replacing o by its estimate s gives an estimate for a, (the estimated standard deviation, i.e., estimated standard error, of B,): ‘The assumptions of the simple linear regression model imply that the standardized variable p= fh _ BH B SIVS,. Ss, A 100(1 — a)% CI for the slope i, of the true regression line is By * tana" Sh,Table 12.2 ANOVA Table for Simple Linear Regression Source of Variation df= Sum of Squares Mean Square f . SSR Regression 1 SSR SSR mas Error n-2 SSE a= SSE n-2 Total n-1 Sst Inferences Concerning jy. .« Let ¥ = B, + B,x*, where x* is some fixed value of x. Then 1. The mean value of Vis EN) = EBy + Bur) = Misi = Bo + Bie Thus 8, + B,x* is an unbiased estimator for By + B,x* (i.e., for py.) 2. The variance of ¥ is whae} ao! + OP ool! aR] n* 3e- Gym n 3, 59 = Sitar = 5A Prediction Interval for a Future Value of Y A 100(1 — a)% PI for a future ¥ observation to be made when x = x* is @-»” “ a I By + Bit © taaga ft + = By + Be* + tanga VP + Sh ge (12.7) The Sample Correlation Coefficient r ‘The sample correlation coefficient for the 1 pairs (x), ),)s-- +4 (p.Jpi8 _ Sy __s “VSq-BVS0-9 VEN5, That is, the sample correlation coefficient r is the same magnitude as the square root of the coefficient of determination R?in the case of simple linear regression.