By gi c tin cng khng b vo bt ng

sn
April 20, 2012 By Alan Phan 26 Comments
BO ANH
20/04/2012 10:04 (GMT+7)

TS. Alan Phan: Kinh

nghim Thi Lan, M cho thy, mt chu k ca bt ng sn phi mt 7 8 nm thay i,
to mt mt bng mi.
Vi nhng chnh sch mi v t ai, th trng c th thot him, nhng c hi thnh cng
cng ch di 50%, TS. Alan Phan, Ch tch Qu u t Viasa ti Hng Kng v Thng
Hi nhn nhn v th trng bt ng sn Vit Nam.Tr chuyn vi VnEconomy, ng Alan Phan
ni:- Th trng bt ng sn xa nay vn c hai vn ct li, mt l vn v lut cung cu,
nu cung t, cu nhiu th tc ng n gi bn. Phn th hai l gi tr tht ca n, tc l da trn
thu nhp ca ngi dn. Bt ng sn vn phc tp, c rt nhiu phn khc. My nm trc ch
c ngun cung cao cp kh di do, trong khi ngi dn vn thu nhp thp l ch yu. Trc y
ch c cc nh u t th cp m vo. Gi h khng m ni na li cng khin cung d tha
nhiu, gi gim l iu tt yu.Trong khi phn khc bnh dn, cu cao nhng cung gn nh
khng c. Malaysia, h xy cn h 100 m2 bn khong 500 triu ng l rt ph bin. Nhng
ta, do chi ph xy dng, chi ph t ai qu cao nn xy cn h gi r l khng th lm
c.Nu so snh gi tr thc ca bt ng sn vi thu nhp ca ngi dn, hin gi bt ng sn
trung bnh Vit Nam gp khong 25 ln thu nhp, trong khi Thi Lan l 6,3 ln, Singapore l
5,2 ln Khi gi qu cao, th l hin tng bong bng, v bong bng s n v khng ai c th
chu ng ni.

Tt c mi yu t trn cho thy, bt ng sn sau mt thi gian trm lng, n s ti mt giai on

phi gii quyt vo cui nm nay, c th n s r sang mt ng khc. Trong bi cnh , nu
ngi no bit nm bt c hi, tn dng thi c tt th c th c li.
C kin cho rng, th trng bt ng sn tn ti nhng nghch l ni trn l do c s chi phi
ca mt nhm li ch no ?
ng nhin l n chu chi phi ca mt nhm u c nht nh. Thc t th h lm ri, v th
trng non tr nn rt d ngi ta li dng trc li. Gi nh t c thi ln kh cao
trong my nm qua. Ngay trc khi c tin H Ty nhp vo H Ni th thin h gt c kh
nhiu iu t tin .
Nhng mt b phn khng nh ny hin nay ht tin, khng cn c hi u c na, nn
cui nm nay s phi thay i.
Trong mt bi vit mi y, ng c ni th trng bt ng sn c th thot him vi chnh
sch t ai mi. C s ca nhn nh ny l g?
Thot him y c ngha l, nu c mt lut t ai mi, cho php ngi nc ngoi s hu
nh, t ai, b h khu th n s kch cu c mt phn, thu ht c mt lng tin khng
nh vo bt ng sn.
Th hai na, hin Chnh ph ang rt mun y cu chng khon, bt ng sn ln phn
no cho ngn hng.
Nhng c c mt lut t ai mi cng rt kh khn. Theo ti, c hi th trng khng
tt gim na, dn tin v s mua thm ch di 50%.
Nhng nu chnh sch thong qu th th trng li quay li st nng, kh kim sot?
Ti cho rng, khng th st nng c na v vi tnh trng kinh t suy thoi nh hin nay, nu
n ng yn c th cng l kh khn v may mn ri.
Cn c gc qun l cng khng phi bn khon g v y l mt th trng qu ln, n chu
chi phi, qun l ca nhiu c quan, b ngnh khc nhau.
ng nhn nhn th no v ng thi h li sut ca ngn hng va qua, n tc ng n th
trng bt ng sn th no?
Vn gim li sut cng l mt c gng ca Chnh ph trong vic kch cu bt ng sn. N s
c nh hng n th trng, nhng cng khng nhiu. V thc th hin ngi dn, doanh nghip
vn ang thiu tin, suy sp, ngi ta vn phi lo n ung, tn ti ca doanh nghip trc, cha
th vung tin cho bt ng sn c.
Nhng ng thi ca Chnh ph s gy ra ng thi tm l tt, c th c tc dng trong vi ba
thng ti nhng sang nm th n li v hiu.

Bi, nhng chnh sch ging nh mt ngi ung thuc gim au, cn au s ct trong vng
vi ting ng h nhng ngy hm sau s au tr li, buc phi ung thm. Nhng thc t l
thuc khng th ung hoi c.
Th trng bt ng sn hin vn tn ti mu thun khi ngi dn cho rng gi vn cao, trong khi
ch u t li cho rng, gi chm y. Theo ng lm sao gii c bi ton ny?
Khng nn xem l bi ton cn gii quyt m nn xem l nh lut ca th trng. Nu lm
n ng thi im, c hi th kim nhiu li nhun. Gi th trng kh khn, bc sang mt chu
k mi nu rt ra khng kp th ng nhin phi mt tin.
Cn tm v m, l mt c hi cho ngi dn co c hi mua nh gi r.
Nhng nu khng gii cu bt ng sn, rt c th nh hng n nhiu lnh vc khc v bt
ng sn vn c xem l hn th biu ca nn kinh t?
Th gii h nh gi nn kinh t M mnh hay yu c phi do bt ng sn M u. Hiu qu
nn kinh t da trn nhiu yu t, t hiu nng sn xut, GDP, thu nhp ngi dn
Nu c tin, ng c b vo bt ng sn lc ny?
Ti s khng lm iu , d c ngi ngh l ng thi ng, c th lm nng li th trng.
Ti tin l th trng cn tip tc i xung na, v gi tr thc v gi cung cu vn cha n khp
nhau.
Nu nh u t mua bt ng sn ri gi li trong vng 20 nm th s c li. Nhng nu mua ri
bn li trong vng 3 -5 nm th khng nn lm. Tt hn l nn gi tin hoc u t vo hng
khc.
Va qua, mt s ngi c cho ti d n bt ng sn nhng ti thy gi cha ph hp, v
theo ti th trng khong 10 nm na mi bt u hng thnh thc s.
Kinh nghim Thi Lan, M cho thy, mt chu k ca bt ng sn phi mt 7 8 nm
thay i, to mt mt bng mi. Bt ng sn chng ta d kh khn vi nm nay nhng theo
ti vn cha chm y. N phi xung y ri mi t t i ln.
Hin gii u t, u c lt sng bt ng sn vn cn vng rt nhiu d v ng cay ca vi
nm qua nn dng nh cha my ai nhy vo.
* TS. Alan Phan c trn 43 nm kinh doanh ti M v Trung Quc. ng hin l Ch tch Qu
u t Viasa ti Hong Kong v Thng Hi. Du hc ti M t nm 1963, ng lm vic ti
nhiu cng ty a quc gia v pht trin cng ty Hartcourt ca mnh thnh mt tp on nim yt
trn sn chng khon M vi th gi hn 700 triu USD. ng xut bn nhiu cun sch v
kinh t ti chnh ca cc quc gia mi ni.

Khng c bi vit lin quan.

Comments

1.

NABB Cafe says:

April 20, 2012 at 11:08 pm
Ch Alan knh mn, t trc ti gi ch lun chm bim s hnh thnh ti sn kiu th
trng mi ni thng qua nm gi BS, nguyn liu th. S xung gi cc ti sn ny
chc chn khin nhiu ngi mt tinv i a s khng ai thch mnh mt tin (thc
hay o).
c bi mi ca ch, chu rt thch nhn nh dng nh cha my ai nhy vo.
mt kha cnh no , chu nhn nhn vn theo cch ngh mt bi vit khc
(http://nguyenanhbb.wordpress.com/2012/02/18/b%E1%BA%A5t-d%E1%BB%99ng-s
%E1%BA%A3n-va-ngh%E1%BB%87-thu%E1%BA%ADt-th%E1%BB%95i-bongbong/):
Dng nh iu gy tranh ci sut t khi th trng ngm n ca Ngh quyt 11 l: ci
khun nh lng ra khng kh lm nn qu bng, hay nhng nhm lung khng kh
mai ny s li cn chnh kch c ca ci khun?
Ngi Ireland ni: Khi bn ngoi bong bng, bn c th thy n. Bn c th khng
thy n lc bn trong.
ng trong by sc cu vng trn sn khu ca Fan Yang, trc nh mt thm thung ca
nghn bn nh pha di, a tr no chng mun qu bng ang trm ln mnh tn ti
mi. Ngoi i, bn cnh chuyn b ngp bi bu khng kh trong bong bng, kh nhiu

ngi nhm tng hoc mong mun nhng gi tr o lng lnh ca bong bng l gi tr
thc ca mnh.
mi l l do khng ai mun bong bng pht n.
L mt ngi tng tri, ch c ng vi nhn nh ny? Cm n ch.
Reply

2.

Long Vu says:
April 22, 2012 at 10:02 am
C nhn em thy vic kt lun h khng thy hnh nh l hi vi vng hay sao? Em
thy vn y l liu ai mun v dm thay i t b li ch c nhn trc mt?
V i khi bn trong bng cn cm nhn r p lc hn l ch nhn thy ch.
Reply

3.

Thi Tun says:

April 22, 2012 at 11:00 am
B m c bi ny ca Ch ALan chc khng d chu t no?
Reply

4.

Nguyen Hai Thanh says:

April 22, 2012 at 11:38 am
Cho A thn mn,
E ngh n gin l nguyn l cung cu cu khng c kh nng thanh ton l cu bng
khng, c ng vy khng a?
Chc a sc khe v an lnh!
Reply

5.

Tien Nguyen says:

April 22, 2012 at 1:12 pm
Chuyn gia th ni chuyn c khc!
Reply

6.

NABB Cafe says:

April 22, 2012 at 10:40 pm
Good comment Long Vu ^^
C th thy, c th khng thy m. Tuy nhin, p lc phi nhn thy bong bng thng
khng cao khi th trng bull. V d mt hin thc c m t trong bi vit sau:
Tin ang n, cn n na, v l th tin d. Tin t cc d n cng ngy cng phnh
to, t nc ngoi chy vo mt th trng mi ni cn u t v cn vin tr, t nhng
khon tit kim nm trong ti khon lng cho ti cc hp st chn di gm ging, rt
nhiu trong s tm cch i kim li nhun t cc th trng ti sn. Cc ngnh ngh
khc t nhin b nhn nhn thnh vt v m ch chng nn ngi, ch doanh nghip
st rut, ngi lm cng mt kin nhn, ti c cng chc cng khng nh lng. Tr lc
h tt nhin s bt tm vo vic lm chnh, ngh nghip chnh v mt hng vo
nhng c hi u t m m ng ngoi kia ang ho hc a theo. Cng vic chnh,
business chnh tr thnh ng khoai.
http://nguyenanhbb.wordpress.com/2012/01/21/vie%CC%A3t-nam-v%E1%BB%9Bibong-bong-tai-sa%CC%89n/
Lc , ai cng ni bong bng y c phiu , cc than nng y, nhng khng ai
mong cc than mnh ang cm l cc than nng bng tay, cho ti khi chuyn c cc
than y cho ngi khc
Khi th trng nh i ba nm tr li y, tt nhin ngi trong bong bng mi thy p
lc thc s. V v th, ai cng mong cc than nng trong tay mnh hay qu bong bng
mnh ang thn th bn trong c ngi ti rc, c Nh nc ti cu, c gii u c u
li mua vo
Reply

7.

Dung Tran says:

April 23, 2012 at 3:06 pm
Cho ch Alan,
Ch c suy ngh g khi ti i hi ng c ng ca Hong Anh Gia Lai ng on
Nguyn c h s gim gi bn cn h ti 50%
Reply

Alan Phan says:

April 23, 2012 at 5:52 pm

Chc ng y c bi ca ch trc khi bc ra din n.
Reply

8.

Vu Dung says:
April 24, 2012 at 4:19 pm
Chu c trong cun Cha Giu Cha Ngho th thy ng tc gi c nhc n quy lut 2010-5, tc l c phiu, ti sn giy chim th trng trong 20 nm, sau vng, bs, hng
ha s tng gi trong 10 nm v c 5 nm th c 1 cuc khng hong kinh t. K t 1996
tc gi bn cc ti sn giy ca mnh, v thay vo l mua vng, u t vo cc cng
ty du m. Theo chu k th ht thi k ca ti sn thc v cc ti sn giy tng gi
v ln ngi ? Nhng vi th trng chng khon hin nay chu ko tin tng lm, liu
rng c ng vi quy lut 20-10-5 ko th phi ch i thi. Chu vn tin tng vo vng
v bs, gi thp th l lc nn mua vo, v vi bs l nn mua v gi ch ko phi l lt
sng. Cn ku rng gi t by h qu cao th c i thm 5,10 nm na s thy n cn
cao n mc no na vi dn s ngy cng tng nh by h.
Reply

Alan Phan says:

April 24, 2012 at 9:39 pm

Vit Nam c nhng nghch l khc bit hn vi kinh t th gii; nhng quy lut
v trng lc (ci g ln cao hoi ri cng phi rt xung) vn ng dng
Reply

9.

kim thanh says:

April 25, 2012 at 2:56 pm
My bi chuyn v kinh t ca TS tht ng c v rt kinh nghim. Hihi, cn nhng
suy gm ca ng v chnh tr v gi tr hnh phc th phi xem li.
Cm n tc gi v nhng li t vn gi tr trong lnh vc u t
Reply

10.

.T says:
April 26, 2012 at 11:27 am
Cho Bc Alan!
Chu ang c d nh s kim 1 triu la trong 5 nm
C th l chu mun kim 1 triu la trong lnh vc Bt ng Sn(BS)
Thy Bc tuyn b th, chu thy b git mnh. tuy nhin chu vn quyt tm i n
thnh cng.
Nhng tht tnh th chu vn cha ngh ra ci m Bc gi l : M hnh kinh doanh sng
to trong lnh vc ny ch !
V tm huyt v tm lng mang nhng iu tt p cho th h tr,cho qu hng!
Bc c th gi cho chu bit chu nn lm t cng vic g?, t v tr no? hay hin nay
th trng ang c khong trng no?
Cm n Bc!
Chc Bc nhiu sc khe v nhiu nim vui!
Reply

Alan Phan says:

April 26, 2012 at 12:29 pm
Bt u bng tng. tng pht xut t kin thc (c v hc) v tri nghim
(th ri lm).

Reply

Thnh says:

May 25, 2012 at 1:00 pm

Xin li bc Alan Phan , chu xin ng gp 1 vi kin vi bn ny
Bn khng nn c t tng n sn nh th . Nu bn khng th vt ln khi thc
t kh khn hin ti bng chnh bn thn mnh m ngi i mch nc th bn s
khng bao gi c kh nng vt qua iu tng t trong tng lai .
Ti cn tr v c l cng ch tm tui bn m thi . Ti cng l ngi mi lp
nghip kinh doanh c 1 nm ( ng ngay vo thi im kh khn ) v ang gp
rt nhiu vn trong thi k kh khn ny . Nhng cng lm ti li cng cm
thy vui hn . Cng vt qua cc vn kh khn trc mt ti li cng t tin v
quyt tm hn . Ti ngh nu ti c th vt qua c kh khn ca thi k ny,
ti s lm c rt nhiu iu trong tng lai .Ti thy rng th trng lun lun
c k h , khng c g l mnh khng th lm c . V khi bn thc s b ra tm
huyt vi c m ca cuc i mnh , bn s tm ra k h v c hi
Ti chc bn s thc hin c c mun ca mnh
Thn
Reply

11.

Tun Ti says:
April 26, 2012 at 1:11 pm
Ti sao Vincom vn mnh h ch? C phiu vn rt cao, v li nhun cng khng. Cn
thc phm Masan vi vic c nh gi 1 t la, ch c ngh l bong bng khng
?
Reply

Alan Phan says:

April 26, 2012 at 9:58 pm

Ch cha lm mt phn tch k cng v cn bn ca 2 cng ty ny. Chu th lm

hay c cc phn tch c ca cc cng ty chng khon?
Reply

NABB Cafe says:

April 26, 2012 at 11:49 pm

Bn c th tham kho bi: Ch trong 5 nm, Masan Food khuynh o c 3 th
trng nc tng, nc mm v m n lin bng chnh ni s hi ca chng ta!
http://nhipcaudautu.vn/article.aspx?id=5923
C th Masan cha tha mn tiu ch m hnh kinh doanh sng to ca ch Alan
nhng ch t theo thng tin t bi ny, Masan c 1 nn tng vng chc da trn
cc sn phm thit yu nh n thc ung. Ngi ta c th khng mua nh,
nhn i chi, nhng khng th nhn n. Thm ch khi khng c tin n 1 bt
ph 30nghn th bt m gi 6000 cng l th mt anh cng nhn ngho ngh ti
c. Th phn ln, s hu cc thng hiu mnh v economic of scale c l
khng phi l mt thc bong bng m MSN ang c trong tay.
Cn Vincom? Ngoi BS tt nhin cng gp kh khn, d sao VIC cng ang s
hu nhng thng hiu hng top v trade center & du lch. Ngi ta ni ti
Vinpearl Nha Trang vi mt s thm mun cho k ngh & ni vui chi gia nh
thuc loi hng u VN. Khng ni ti ngun vn t u, nhng t nht nhng c
ng ca VIC cng l nhng ngi to bo v c tm nhn xa (u t vo Vincom
Center Hanoi 2003 & Vinpearl 2006 l pioneer thi im ). u t vo truyn
hnh An Vin cng l mt hng i advance khng km
i khi sng to khng nht thit phi l to ra m hnh mi, to ci mi trong
m hnh c nu i ng lc ng ch th c hi thnh cng khng phi l nh. V
th, li khuyn ca ch Alan vn ng: Bt u bng tng. tng pht xut
t kin thc (c v hc) v tri nghim (th ri lm).
Reply

12.

N..T says:
April 26, 2012 at 3:36 pm
Cm n Bc rt nhiu!
Nh c cc bi vit ca Bc m chu c cch ngh khc v cng vic, v cuc sng, v

x hi.
Chc Bc nhiu hnh phc a!
Reply

13.

Moonb says:
May 3, 2012 at 3:24 pm
Em rt khm phc kin thc ca anh v rt bit n anh chia s nhng suy ngh kin
thc ca mnh cho mi ngi.
Em thch c v trong nhng bi vit ca anh c lung suy ngh khc bit vi nhng t
duy ti VN, nhng ngi khng c nhiu kinh nghim, hc vn v mi trng nh anh.
V th nhng bi vit ca anh rt c gi tr.
Em cng c mt cht tin nh tit kim, hin ti ang gi tit kim, nhng v c cht tin
nn cng nung nu u t vo u (mo nh bt chut nh thi) nhng cha bit u
t vo u. Nhng bi vit ca anh d c th hn, nhng vn c v rt siu phm (ca
ngi hc cao, bit rng) v vn rt kh p dng trong tnh hnh ti VN, tuy nhin, em
vn thch tham kho, ch cha ngh ra c ci g c th mnh dm lm c (chc ti
em ch mn).
Hy vng, ngy no y em s ngh ra c ci g y pht trin s tin hin c. Va
ri c vic DN ngi vit mua c th trn M, em thy th v l anh y c c
thng tin internet vnexpress. Bnh thng c bo mng, vn hay ngh my ci tin
y c cho vui, mi t nc m xa xi, bit u l thc hay h. Vy m anh y nm
c d mt manh mi nh v pht trin ln thnh cng.
S ng gp ca anh cho x hi VN l rt ln. Mong anh c nhiu bi hay na.
Reply

14.

Nguyn Vn Dng says:

May 3, 2012 at 11:28 pm
el- nino !!!
Reply

15.

ON HIU QUC says:

May 4, 2012 at 1:39 pm

Knh hi ch l thi quen c sch ca ch l nhng loi sch g c tng ?

Reply

Alan Phan says:

May 4, 2012 at 6:23 pm

Sch no mnh thchv suy ngh ngc li nhng g mnh c
Reply

16.

NguyenVan says:
May 5, 2012 at 11:42 am
By gi c tin m khng u t vo BS th ch n khi no?Ch th trng hi phc
hay sao?Khng ch Thi Lan hay Malay th tnh chu k ca t ai l 7 8 nm ,ngay
c M th cng 5 nm ri cn g.t ai tng trng khng nh cc loi hng ha
khc.Vic nm bt thi im mua vo l quan trng.Hin nay,nu c tin,bn tr nn u
t vo t ai.Th trng nh t ng li 2 -3 nm nay,nm nay l trm lng
nht.Giu hay khng l lc ny,th trng l ca ngi mua.Nu ch th trng si ng
tr li,c hi s khng nhiu nh thi im hin ti.Vn l cc bn phi c chin thut
u t hiu qu,bit dng ng loi tin m bn cn.Tin s Alan cng c l ng ca
TS,v TS c tm nhn chin lc khc hn.Ti cng quan im vi TS Alan ch l Th
trng vng,du.u t theo s ng thng tht bi.
Reply

Hai Nam says:

May 7, 2012 at 12:10 am

Bn c nm tin ca bn nu mun. Ri bn s hc c bi hc t gi
Reply

17.

Risk$Rich says:

May 7, 2012 at 11:02 am

bn ngh by gi th trng bt ng sn thuc v ngi mua?? Xin tha vi bn
ch la cu PR nhm thot hng, gii phng tn kho ca cc bc nh t nhm tho g
tinh trng chim dng vn trong cc d n BS. L 1 chiu to sng s ng nhm lo
li ti tin ca ngi dn khao khat c 1 mnh t cm di li cho con chu thi. Thc
t m ni cha bao gi BS l ca ngi mua, khng ch ring Vit Nam.
u tin, chu hon ton ng vi quan im ca bc Alan khng nn tin vo u
t BS vo lc ny. C nhng l do sau, th nht qu trinh gii cu cc ngn hang ang
c tin hnh 1 cch ch v vp phi s phn i ca d lun bi s tin gii cu qu
ln so vi GDP ca ton nn kinh t ( t nht la 10 t USD), khng phi mun l c ngay
c. Ti sao ngi dn c phi nai lng chu trong khi k phi li ca h? Bn c
chp nhn 10 t USD thay v xy trng hc, bnh vin, ng x, .v cc cng
trnh phc li phc v an sinh khc , nay li vo BS (1 trong nhng nguyn nhn ln
gy n xu ca h thng ngn hng) tc la ri vo ti ca cc i gia BS, cc nha u
t th cp ( tuy nhin hn 70% trong s h vay tin ngn hng u t) vy rt cuc ai
s c li ? XIn khng inh khng phi la dn thng chng ta ri.
Th 2, vi s khan him v vn trong sut 2 nm qua v s u t dn tri v ti v theo
kiu cun chiu liu cht lng siu sn phm ny c c m bo nh trn giy t.
Ti sao ti li gi BS sn l siu sn phm, bi theo nh tnh ton 1 ngi thu nhp
trung bnh khong 7-10 triu/thng phi mt 70 nm mi c th tu 1 dinh c 50m2
cha tnh n lm pht, v tr y nh. Th hi trn i ny cn ci g t hn??? Th
nhng cht lng ca n li k h t l thun. Vy mi c bit. y l cha k cc
dich v n theo khc nu bn mua chung c.
Cui cng, theo ti c bit hin nay hnh lang php l v BS vn cn kh m m
lung tung, ri ro tim n rt ln, cha k trong vng 1-2 nm ti Nh nc s that i
Lut v BS ( theo nh cc chnh tr gia ca chng ta h ho l i mi bt kp vi
yu cu ca tinh hnh thc t hin nay) , Khi mi rc ri v chuyn i gia mi v
c s pht sinh. Bn c kin nhn va tin bc theo ui 1 v kin v BS Viet
Nam khng? Hy suy ngh tht k.
Reply

18.

Vu Quang Trung says:

May 10, 2012 at 11:52 am
Chu thy u t vo BS trung bnh, r, v cho thu by gi l rt hay v c th duy tr
tt trong vng 5 nm na; v nhu cu thc s hp ti tin ca dn cn rt nhiu, v nu ai
kinh hi bong bng BS h s tm gii php an ton lm nh cho thu! c phi vy
khng Ch?
Reply