5 Tn hiu khng hong kinh t TQ

JULY 4, 2012 BY GUEST 1 COMMENT

5 Tn hiu khng hong kinh t TQ

Cp nht: 14:13 GMT th nm, 5 thang 7, 2012
Tap chi uy tin Foreign Policy va co bai phn tich tinh hinh nn kinh t Trung Quc,
BBCVietnamese.com xin gii thi u cung quy vi.
nh sng ang tr nn mp m trong nh my in ca nn kinh t th gii.
Mc d tng lai ca Trung Quc vn c th c cho l kha lc quan nu so sanh vi Chu u, nhng
con s thng k ang cho thy ng c tng trng ca nc ny b l s.
Cac doanh nghip c vay vn ngy cng t. Nhu cu cho ngnh sn xut nh tr. Li sut b ct gim
t ngt. Nhp khu khng h tin trin. Tng trng bnh qun thu nhp trn u ngi (GDP) cng tt
gim xung quanh s tranh ci ca d lun, rng Trung Quc c l tnh trng khng hong kinh t.
Vo thang Ba, Th tng Trung Quc n Gia Bo b cho l d dt khi t ch tiu tng trng nm 2012
mc 7,5%. Gi y c xem nh l mt li tin tri.
Trn thc t, y l mc tng trng hng nm thp nht ca kinh t Trung Quc k t 1990, khi t
nc ny phi i mt vi s c lp ca Quc t sau cuc thm sat Thin An Mn 1989.
Vy nhng du hiu no thc s chng minh rng s tr hon ca nn kinh t Trung Quc khng n
thun ch l thng k trn giy ? Di y l 5 du hiu trn thc t biu hin kh khn kinh t Trung
Quc:

Tm bit BMW
Gi kch cu ln n 586 t la gip Trung Quc vt qua khng hong kinh t ton cu nm 2009
gi y tr thnh mt ganh nng i vi chnh quyn a phng khi cac b phn ny phi tm cach tr
n. iu ng ngha vi nhng chnh sach tht lng buc bng cc k kht khe.
Cac hng nc ngoi bt u lo ngi suy thoai Trung Quc
Nhng on xe bng loang m cac quan chc a phng vn ung dung rc v nhng nm bng n
tng trng nm hng u trn danh sach nhng th b loi b.
Chnh quyn thnh ph n Chu ang ln k hoch ban u gia n 80% tng s xe dnh cho quan
chc (1.300 chic) trong nm nay. Chnh quyn cac a phng khac cng ang tin hnh nhng kiu
ban thc ban thao tng t.
Ngay c Ferrari cng ang lo ngi v suy thoai kinh t Trung Quc, v iu ny khng ch v Bc Hy Lai
va b loi khi danh sach khach hng tim nng ca h.

Mt vn au u khac cho chnh quyn a phng l s ng bt ng sn t hu qu ca ch

th lm ngui th trng bt ng sn ca Chnh quyn Trung ng, s tng thiu v c tin ln nim tin
t cac khach hng tim nng.
Vo thang Sau, mc gia mua nh bnh qun trn 100 thnh ph ln ca Trung Quc tng ln u tin
trong 9 thang, tuy nhin vn thp hn 1,9% so vi nm ngoai.Mt s ta nh chnh ph c th s nm
tip theo trn danh sach c ban, sau khi nhng chic xe cng chc c lai i bi nhng ngi
ch t nhn mi.
V th l s tit kim tt bc bt u: Nhng ba tic ca cac quan chc Trung Quc c th s tr nn
bun t hn rt nhiu.

Bo ng Qung ng
Nhng quan chc cp cao, trong nhiu thp k cnh bao rng suy thoai kinh t s dn n bt n x
hi.
Trung Quc quan ngi trc tnh trng bt n mt s ni
Ngoi tr mt s trng hp ngoi l, sc tng trng ca mt nn kinh t Trung Quc hin i
sc khin a phn dn s khng phi phn nn nhiu.
Tuy nhin vi mc GDP tt xung di 8% ln u tin sau nhiu nm, c cu x hi ca Trung Quc c
th ang trong mt trng thai b cng dy, nht l khi hng ngn, nu khng phi hng triu nhng ngi
lao ng nhp c ang ng trc nguy c mt vic.
Lu Ting, kinh t gia ca chi nhanh ngn hng Bank of America ti Hong Kong ni trong mt cuc phng
vn gn y vi t Bloomberg Businessweek: R rng l s suy thoai ca tng trng xut khu xut
ngun t tnh trng tiu cc ca kinh t Chu u, M ang l ganh nng ln kinh t Trung Quc.
Nhng cng ty xut khu ang lin tc pha sn, s khac ang gim thi lng lm vic t ba ca xung
ch mt ca c th tip tc duy tr kinh doanh.
Lao ng nhp c lun l du nht gip ng c tng trng ti Trung Quc n may.
Tuy nhin vic m bo lc lng lao ng ny cm thy h c nhn phn thng xng ang l mt
yu t quan trong nhm m bo n nh ti nc ny.
Bt mn ca lc lng lao ng ny s l him ha tim tng gy thit hi cho Trung Quc, ging nh
bo ng c cho l chn ng ln trong thi gian gn y ti th x Ty Sa ti Qung ng min
Nam Trung Quc.
Cuc bo ng ny tuy c ngn chn, nhng nhng ngi dn Ty Sa ng o cng khin chnh
quyn a phng phi dc ht sc lc.

Tng lp thng lu mt tch

Khi tnh hnh tr nn gay go, k giu hng thng ti sn bay.

Ngi giu Trung Quc ra nc ngoi ngy cng nhiu

Nhng mt hng xa x, vn tng trng mnh m ti Trung Quc bt u c nhng du hiu chm li
vo u nm nay.
Tuy nhin iu ny khng c ngha ngi giu ti Trung Quc ngng tiu tin. H ch chn ngng tiu
tin ti Trung Quc.
Vo cui nm ngoai, mt iu r rng l nhiu ngi giu c ti Trung Quc t ra suy gim nim
tin i vi th trng trong nc v bt u quay sang u t vo ti sn c tnh hoan i v d nh
ngoi t, thay v ti sn c nh, v d nh bt ng sn.
Hin nay nhng ngi nay ang c xu hng u t bt ng sn cao cp ti nc ngoi, mt phn v
nhng gii hn u t trong nc km theo gia hi nc ngoi, nhng cng mt phn v s e ngi
nhng bt n chnh tr v kinh t ti Trung Quc.
Thc t ny n khp vi kt qu kho sat vo cui nm 2011 rng hn mt na nhng triu ph Trung
Quc ang ngh n vic ri b t nc v nh c ti nc ngoi.
Cac y vin Cng T ca Trung Quc cho bit, hn 19.000 quan chc b bt trong 12 nm qua trong
khi ang tm cach trn ra nc ngoi vi s tin bt hp phap kim c.
H dng thut ng quan chc trn trung ni v nhng quan chc thnh cng trong vic ct giu
nhng khi ti khon trai php ti nhng h nh no ti nc ngoi, a nhng thnh vin gia nh
mnh n trc mt cach an ton v ch i thi c nhy ln tu trn i.
Nhng ngi giu c v nm trong tay quyn lc chnh tr thng l thnh vin ca cng mt gia nh.
Nu nh Trung Quc thc s ri vo khng hong kinh t, rt nhiu nhng ngi giu c s c th b
chy.

Mt ma h di v nng
Cuc sng ca nng dn vn kh khn
Mc tiu th in thng leo thang vo ma h khi ngi dn m may iu ha chng chi vi thi
tit nng.
Tuy nhin nm nay, rt nhiu nhng ngi dn Trung Quc ang chu ng cai nng tit kim.
Nhng ng than nm l ra phi c s dng cac nh may nng lng gi ny nm chng cht ti
cac cng Trung Quc. Sn lng sn xut gim cng l mt trong nhng l do cho iu ny.
Ch mi nm ngoai y, Bc Kinh mi ni n chuyn xy dng tr lng than d phng phng
trng hp cn kit.
Hin ti, Trung Quc dng nh ang nhp khu nhiu du hn nhu cu thc t, trong bi cnh nhng
ngi dn lam l, nhng doanh nghip v cac nh may ang phi ct gim mc tiu th in gim chi
ph.

Gia than trn ton quc gim 10% k t nm ngoai. S gim gia ny c th gy thm st m i vi
kinh t th gii v lm suy gim thm nhu cu i vi ngnh xut khu Trung Quc.
S ton cu ha ch th l y: Mt ngi Trung Quc tt iu ha, v c th gii b cm lnh.

Gi c leo thang
Gia tht v b ti Trung Quc ang tng ngy cng cao phn anh nhu cu ngy cng tng. iu ny bin
lm phat thnh mi bn tm hng u vi cac nh lp phap Trung Quc.
Nm 2007, mc tiu th tht ln mc 1,7 triu con mi ngy. Vo nm 2011, Cc Thng k Quc gia
cho bit gia tht ln hng nm tng ln 57%.
Lm phat ang gy quan ngi
Tuy nhin trong bn thang va qua, nhu cu tht ln suy gim. Kt qu ca ngun cung cp qua mc
khin t l gia ln so vi ht ging gim n mc chn nui ln tr nn d kim li hn.
Chnh ph Trung Quc phi can thip v thu mua tht ln bnh n gia.
Ngay c khi tht ln gim, gia trng li tng, nhanh n mc nhng ngi tiu dng bt u s dng
cm t Trng tn la.
Thm vo , i vi nhng ngi tiu dng Trung Quc, nim tin ca h khng ch b lung lay bi tnh
hnh kinh t m m, m cn v mt chui nhng tai ting v v sinh an ton thc phm.
Nhng ngi ny ngy cng c xu hng t trng rau v trai cy th nht l khng phi tr gia ct
c, th hai tranh thm cnh phi n da leo c bm y nhng cht m l ra khng da leo no
phi cha ng.
Ph Ch tch Tp Cn Bnh c cho l s m ng chc v Ch tch Trung Quc trong mt s kin
chuyn giao quyn lc lnh o m mt thp k mi c mt ln vo ma thu ny.
Trong bi cnh nhng s rn nt bt u xut hin trong nn mng kinh t ca t nc, ngi ta khng
khi t hi rng, liu ng Tp c vn cn a thch v tr ny hay khng.

The lights are flickering in the worlds economic powerhouse.

Although Chinas outlook may still be positive by, say, European standards, the numbers show that the
countrys storied growth engine has slipped out of gear. Businesses are taking fewer loans.
Manufacturing output has tanked. Interest rates have unexpectedly been cut. Imports are flat. GDP
growth projections are down, with some arguing that China might already be in recession. In March,
Premier Wen Jiabao put the 2012 growth target at 7.5 percent; then seen as conservative, its now viewed
as prescient. If realized, it would be Chinas lowest annual growth rate since 1990, when the country
faced international isolation after the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre.
What are the concrete indications that China is experiencing something more than just a spreadsheet
slowdown? Here are five real-world signs of Chinas economic malaise.

From hog ratios to growing coal stockpiles, the Chinese economy is blinking red.

PHILIPPE LOPEZ/AFP/GettyImages
1. BYE-BYE BMW
The $586 billion stimulus package that enabled China to sail through the 2009 global downturn only
deferred the pain for local governments. Now theyre being asked to repay their debts, and that means
some serious belt-tightening at City Hall.
The fleets of flashy cars that local officials indulgently amassed during the boom years will be among the
first things to go. The city of Wenzhou is planning to auction off 80 percent of its vehiclesthis year thats
1,300 cars with similar fire sales occurring nationwide. Even Ferrari issounding nervous about the
Chinese downturn, and not only because Bo Guagua is seemingly off its list of potential customers.
Part of the headache for municipal governments is that land sales have dried up thanks to a central
government initiative to cool Chinas overheating property market, as well as a shortage of cash and
confidence among potential buyers. In June, the average housing price for 100 major Chinese cities rose
for the first time in nine months, but prices are still down 1.9 percent from last year. Some government
premises could be next on the block, once those official cars have been driven away by their new, private
owners. Then the extreme economizing begins: Chinas elaborate official banquets could become a lot
more prosaic.

STR/AFP/GettyImages
2. RIOT IN GUANGDONG
Senior government officials have warned for decades that economic slowdown could spell social unrest,
and with few exceptions, Chinas modern growth rate has been impressive enough to keep most people
happy most of the time. But as GDP growth dips below 8 percent for the first time in years, Chinas social
fabric could come under strain, especially as thousands, if not millions, of migrant workers find their jobs
under threat. Its clear the slowdown of export growth as a result of weakness in Europe and the U.S.
continues to weigh on the Chinese economy, Lu Ting, an economist at Bank of America Corp. in Hong
Kong recently told Bloomberg Businessweek. Exporters are going bust, and some factories that remain
open have switched from three shifts to just one.
Migrant workers have always supplied the elbow grease that enables Chinas growth engine to purr. But
its critical to Chinas stability that those workers feel they are sharing in the rewards. Their disaffection
has the potential to be Chinas undoing, as the southern manufacturing town of Shaxiin Guangdong came
to realize last week when it became the scene of Chinas most recent large mass incident. That incident
appears to have been contained, but the authorities can only cope with so many Shaxis at once.

STR/AFP/GettyImages
3. VANISHING RICH PEOPLE
When the going gets tough, the rich head to the airport.
Luxury goods sales, which have been booming in China, began to slow earlier this year. But that doesnt
mean that rich Chinese people have stopped spending. Theyve just stopped spending in China. Late last
year, it became apparent that many wealthy Chinese were losing confidence in the domestic market, as
they began investing in convertible assets, like foreign currency, rather than in fixed assets, such as real
estate. Now they are increasingly looking overseas to invest in high-end property, partly because of
domestic restrictions and bargains overseas, but also as a hedge against political and economic
uncertainty at home. This dovetails with the revelation in late 2011 that over half of Chinas millionaires
are thinking about skipping the country and setting up permanently abroad.
Chinese prosecutors have said that close to 19,000 officials have been caught in the last 12 years while
trying to flee overseas with money earned illegally; they use the term naked official for one who has
squirreled away an illicit fortune in some overseas bolt-hole, has already safely installed his family there,
and is now waiting for the opportune moment to jump Chinas listing ship. Chinas wealthy and politically
powerful are often members of the same family, and if China really does go into recession, a lot of rich
people may decide to cut and run.

STR/AFP/GettyImages
4. A LONG, HOT SUMMER
Electricity consumption usually spikes over the summer, as people turn on their air-conditioners to cope
with the seasonal heat. But this year, many Chinese appear to be braving the high temperatures to
economize. Chinas ports are piled high with coal that should be roaring in the countrys power plants.
Lower manufacturing output is also to blame. Only last year, Beijing talked about amassing an emergency
coal stockpile to prevent the stuff from running out. Now it looks as if China has imported more fuel than it
needs, as hard-pressed citizens, businesses, and factories cut their electricity consumption in order to
reduce their bills.
The national price of coal has already dropped 10 percent since late last year. This drop could further
dent the global economy, which would in turn cool demand for Chinese exports even more. Thats
globalization for you: A Chinese person turns off the air-conditioning, and the world economy catches a
cold.

LIU JIN/AFP/GettyImages
5. HOG RATIOS AND ROCKET EGGS
As China consumes ever larger quantities of meat, the prices of pork and beef have risen, fueled by the
relentless demand. This has made inflation a preoccupation of Chinese policymakers. By 2007, China
was eating 1.7 million pigs every day; in 2011 the countrys National Bureau of Statistics said pork prices
had risen 57 percent year on year.
But over the last four months, demand for pork has dipped. The resultant oversupply has caused the allimportant hog-to-corn price ratio to fall below the point where rearing pigs becomes profitable, and the
Chinese government had to step in and buy up pork to stabilize prices.
Even as the pork price has dropped, the price of eggs has shot up so quickly that shoppers have
started to use the term rocket eggs. Furthermore, Chinese consumers, their confidence shaken not only
by the faltering economy but by a long string of food safety scandals, are increasingly opting to grow their
own fruit and vegetables so that they a) wont be ripped off, and b) wont be eating cucumbers pumped
full of things that no cucumber should ever be subjected to.
Vice President Xi Jinping is expected to assume Chinas presidency in a once-in-a-decade leadership
transition this fall. As the cracks appear in his countrys economic foundations, you have to wonder
whether he still fancies the job.