WDPN31 PGTW 140300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 327
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WESTNORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BETTER DEFINED CLOUD LINES
WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
OBSCURED BY DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 132119Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH CURVED CONVECTION ALONG
THE PERIPHERIES OF THE BROADER CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE LLCC IN THE ABOVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES AND SUPPORTED BY THE
IMPROVED DEFINITION IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT DIVERGENT OUTFLOW
WITH AN EQUATORWARD BIAS. HOWEVER, A TUTT CELL, APPARENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY, IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND
DISRUPTING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS)
ABOVE 28 CELSIUS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. TD 16W IS TRACKING
SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 16W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN AS A BUILDING NEAREQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST COMPLICATES THE STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND DRIVES THE SYSTEM NORTH. AS THE SYSTEM GAINS
LATITUDE, TOWARDS THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT CELL, EXPECT MODEST
INTENSIFICATION DUE TO THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BEYOND TAU
36, THE STR TO THE NORTH WILL ASSUME STEERING ONCE AGAIN, TURNING
THE CYCLONE TO THE WEST. CONCURRENTLY, THE TUTT CELL WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM FROM TD 16W, PROVIDING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 48,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE OPTIMAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION
(RI) DUE TO STRONG DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS WITH HIGH SSTS
AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 16W WILL ACCELERATE WESTNORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE DOMINANT STR. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN OPTIMAL TO CONTINUE RI THROUGH TAU 96. BEYOND TAU 96, AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE WILL ONCE AGAIN REDUCE
THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND INCREASE THE VWS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
REDUCE THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TRACK PHILOSOPHY, HOWEVER, THERE IS
A LARGE SPREAD IN THE INITIAL 24 HOURS. NAVGEM, COAMPS-TC, AND GFDN
TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD UNDER A STRONGER NER PRIOR TO THE STR
ASSUMING STEERING. GFS AND HWRF INITIALLY TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHNORTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN IT TO THE WEST. THIS DIFFERENCE CREATES
A LARGE TIMING DISCREPANCY IN THE OVERALL GUIDANCE. DUE TO THIS
TIMING AND TRACK SPREAD, THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK IS LAID JUST INSIDE
OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION, WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.//
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