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Lm th no xc nh c
mu?
Mt cch n gin v d nht l da
vo cc nghin cu c cng ni dung
c thc hin trc ly mu.
C th hi kin cc chuyn gia,
nhng ngi c kinh nghim thc hin
cc d n iu tra kho st.
C th tnh ton theo cng thc tnh
mu.
z ( p.q )
n
2
e
Tnh c mu
Trong :
n= l c mu
z= gi tr phn phi tng ng vi tin cy
la chn (nu tin cy 95% th gi tr z l
1,96)
p= l c tnh t l % ca tng th
q = 1-p
thng t l p v q c c tnh 50%/50%
l kh nng ln nht c th xy ra ca tng th.
e = sai s cho php (+-3%, +-4%,+-5%...)
V d
Tnh c mu ca mt cuc trng cu
kin trc mt cuc bu c vi
tin cy l 95% vi gi tr z tng ng
l 1.96, sai s cho php l nm trong
khong +5%. Gi nh p*q ln nht
c th xy ra l 0.5*0.5.
C mu s c tnh l:
C mu
2
385
2
0.05
Tnh c mu
1 N 1 1 k
n
N P.Q z1 / 2
N
1
2
Tip
N = s lng n v trong tng th.
P = t l tng th.
Q = 1-P,
k= sai s cho php.
Tnh c mu
Nu tng th nh v bit c tng
th th dng cng thc sau:
Vi n l c mu, N l s lng tng
th, e l sai s tiu chun
V d
Tnh c mu ca mt cuc iu tra
vi
Tng th l N= 2000, chnh xc l
95%, sai s tiu chun l +- 5%.
-- c mu s c tnh l:
V d
Bng c mu
Bng 1. C mu vi sai s cho php l 3%, 5%, 7% v
10% tin cy l 95% v P=0.5.
C ca
tng th
5%
7%
10%
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2,000
*
*
*
*
*
*
714
222
240
255
267
277
286
333
145
152
158
163
166
169
185
83
86
88
89
90
91
95
Bng c mu (tip)
Bng 1. C mu vi sai s cho php l 3%, 5%, 7% v
10% tin cy l 95% v P=0.5.
C ca
tng th
5%
7%
10%
3,000
811
353
191
97
4,000
870
364
194
98
5,000
909
370
196
98
6,000
938
375
197
98
7,000
959
378
198
99
8,000
976
381
199
99
9,000
989
383
200
99
Bng c mu (tip)
Bng 1. C mu vi sai s cho php l 3%, 5%, 7% v
10% tin cy l 95% v P=0.5.
C ca
tng th
5%
7%
10%
10,000
1,000
385
200
99
15,000
1,034
390
201
99
20,000
1,053
392
204
100
50,000
1,087
397
204
100
100,000
1,099
398
204
100
>100,000 1,111
400
204
100
Trng s
Trng s
C nhiu cuc iu tra bn phi s
dng trng s trong phn tch d
liu.
Trng s ny phi c tnh ton.
Bn cn phi hiu r v trng s ny.
Mc ch s dng trng s: i din
cho tng th tt hn.
Trng s
Trong s c tnh bng phn s
nghch o ca phn s chn mu:
W= N/n
V d
Trong v d v la chn 100 sinh vin trong
c 50 sinh vin dn tc kinh v 50 sinh
vin dn tc thiu s t mu 2000 sinh
vin vi 100 sinh vin dn tc thiu s.
Nh vy sinh vin xc sut la chn ca
sinh vin dn tc thiu s l trong khi
ca dn tc kinh l 1/38. ph hp vi
s phn b t l ca tng th, ta phi s
dng trng s.
Trng s
Vi v d trn, th phn tng nhm
sinh vin dn tc kinh s c trng s
l 38 v sinh vin dn tc thiu s s
c trng s l 2.
V d
Tng th: 2500 h gia nh thuc nhm
ngho v 1200 h gia nh thuc nhm
giu.
Mt cuc iu tra c thc hin vi 2
phn tng: phn tng h giu v phn
tng h ngho.
Mi phn tng la chn 100 h gia nh.
Mu la chn nhiu hn so vi t l
ca phn tng h giu.
V d
Nu chng ta tnh trung bnh thu
nhp ca h gia nh theo mu th
thu nhp qu cao so vi thc t.
c lng thu nhp trung bnh
ca dn c khng b sai lch, chng
ta cn gia trng khu vc h giu thp
t hn khu vc h ngho.
Vic ny c th thc hin d dng vi
Stata.
V d.
Gi thit rng, trung bnh thu nhp ca nhm h
ngho l 12000$, v ca nhm h giu l 25000$.
Trung bnh thu nhp khng c trng s:
{100 x 12000$+100 x 25000$}/200=$18,500
Trung bnh c trng s:
- Trng s nhm h ngho: W1= 2500/100=25
- Trng s nhm h giu: W2= 1200/100=12
- {100 x 1200$ x 25 + 100 x 2500$ x 12}/ {100 x
25+ 100 x 12}= 16,216.20$
Chng ta c th thy rng thc hin gia trng s
chnh xc hn so vi thc t v trong mu c qu
nhiu h thuc phn tng h giu.
Bi tp
Mt cuc kho st cc nh u t chng
khon vi s lng l 1000 nh u t. Thu
c kt qu nh sau:
100 nh u t c vn <100 triu ng.
300 nh u t c vn t 100-500tr ng.
600 nh u t c vn t 500tr tr ln.
Bi tp
Khi ly thng tin t y ban chng khon
quc gia th thy t l phn b nh sau:
20% nh u t c vn < 100tr ng
60% nh u t c vn 100-500tr ng.
20% nh u t c vn <500tr ng.
Hy tnh trng s kt qu thu c
s liu ph hp vi thc t?
Bi tp
ti: Tm hiu nhu cu tiu dng
thc phm an ton ca ngi dn H
Ni.
Xy dng k hoch thc hin ca
ti trn.