Nhap Mon XLSKHHTN

L c Ngc- Nhp mn x ly s li u va k hoach ha thc nghi m-12/2013
I HC QUC GIA H NI
TRNG I HC KHOA HC T NHIN
KHOA HA HC
L c Ngc
NHP MN
X LY S LIU
V K HOCH HA THC NGHIM
H Ni- 12/2013
MC LC
PHN I: THNG K V PHN TCH THNG K S O
Chng 1: Cc c trng thng k ca mt tp s liu kt qu o
1. Cc tham s c trng v s tp trung ca tp s liu
1.1. Tn xut (pi)
1.2. S tri (Mo)
1.3. Khong ca tp s (R)
1.4. S trung v (Med) v s t phn v (Q)
1.5. Trung bnh cng (X)
2. Cc tham s c trng v s phn tn ca tp s liu
2.1. Phng sai (2 hoc S2)
2.2. lch chun ( f hoc Sf)
2.3. sai chun (x hoc Sx)
2.4. H s bin thin (Cv)
3. Cc c trng phn phi thng k ca tp s liu
3.1. Phn phi Chun (phn phi Gauss) (u)
3.2. Phn phi Student (phn phi t)
3.3. Phn phi Fisher
3.4. Phn phi Khi bnh phng
3.5. Phn phi Poisson
3.6. Phn phi Nh thc
3.7. Mi quan h gia cc hm phn phi v cc chun phn phi
Bi tp chng 1
Chng 2: Phn tch nh gi tp s liu kt qu o
4.1. Sai s o
4.2. chnh xc ca tp s liu kt qu thc nghim
4.3. sai bit ca tp s liu kt qu thc nghim
4.4. Sai s ti a cho php P(X)
4.5. Khong chnh xc tin cy
4.6. Khong gii hn tin cy ca mt tp s liu kt qu o
Bi tp chng 2
Chng 3: Phn tch so snh cp tham s c trng ca hai tp s liu kt qu o
5.1. Gi thit thng k v kt lun thng k
5.2. Quan h gia chun phn phi v kt lun thng k
5.3. Phn tch so snh
5.3.1. So snh chnh xc
5.3.2. So snh sai bit
Bi tp chng 3
PHN II: PHN TCH NHN T NH HNG LN S O
Chng 4 : Phn tch Hi qui v Tng quan ca cc nhn t
6.1. Hi qui v Tng quan hai nhn t
6.1.1. Hi qui tuyn tnh
6.1.2. Hi qui phi tuyn tnh
6.1.3. H s tng quan (r) Spearman
6.1.4. H s tng quan th bc Spearman rho
2
6.2. Hi qui v tng quan a nhn t

Bi tp chng 4
Chng 5: Phn tch tc ng ca cc nhn t qua tham s
( phn tch bng phng sai )
7.1. Bi ton 1 nhn t, k mc o,mi mc o lp li n ln
7.2. Bi ton 2 nhn t A v B; nhn t A, k mc o; nhn t B, m mc o; vi mi mc ca 2
nhn t A v B u tin hnh o lp li n ln
7.3. Bi ton 3 nhn t tr ln ( Phng php vung Latin)
Bi tp chng 5
Chng 6: Phn tch tc ng ca cc nhn t khng qua tham s
8.1. Bi ton t l gia 2 i lng, mi i lng 2 mc
8.1.1. Dng chun Khi bnh phng (2) nh gi
8.1.2. Dng H s tng quan nh gi
8.2. Bi ton t l gia 2 i lng X (c s mc) v Y (c r mc)
8.3. Bi ton so snh 2 t l
Bi tp chng 6
PHN III: K HOCH HO THC NGHIM
Chng 7: M hnh ho thc nghim a nhn t bc mt y v rt gn
9.1. i cng v m hnh ho thc nghim a nhn t
9.2. M hnh ho thc nghim bc 1 y
9.3. M hnh ho thc nghim bc 1 rt gn
BI TP CHNG 7
Chng 8: M hnh ho thc nghim a nhn t bc hai y hay rt gn
10.1. M hnh ho thc nghim bc 2 tm trc giao
10.2. M hnh ho thc nghim bc 2 tm xoay
Bi tp chng 8
Chng 9: Phng php mng n hnh
PHN IV: TI U HO THC NGHIM
Chng 10. Ti u ha thc nghim
10.1. Khi nim v phn loi cc phng php ti u ho
10.2. Phng php thc nghim theo ng dc nht
10.3. Phng php kho st mt mc tiu
10.4. Phng php thc nghim theo n hnh
Ph lc: Cc bng s thng k
1. Bng chun u
2. Bng chun t
3. Bng chun F
4. Bng chun 2
PHN I
X LY S LIU KT QU O
CHNG 1
CC C TRNG THNG K CA MT TP S LIU KT QU O
Nhng i lng c trng chnh cho mt tp s liu kt qu o, c phn lm 3 loi
chnh: 1/ Cc tham s c trng v s tp trung ca tp s liu, 2/ Cc tham s c trng v
s phn tn ca tp s liu, 3/ c trng phn phi thng k ca tp s liu.
1. Cc tham s c trng v s tp trung ca tp s liu
1.1. Tn sut (pi)
Gi thit c mt tp s liu kt qu o gm c N s liu, trong c n i gi tr Xi (Xi
xut hin ni ln) ni gi l tn s ca gi tr Xi, khi , tn sut ca gi tr Xi c tnh nh sau:
n
pi i
N
pi 1
1.1
pi l tn sut xut hin gi tr Xi, khi N th pi Pi (Pi l xc sut, xut hin gi tr Xi).
V d 1: Khi kho st 100 i tng o X, thu c 100 s liu o cho bng sau:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
4.37
4.13
4.46
4.45
4.73
4.20
3.64
4.15
3.96
1
3.71
4.05
3.70
4.21
4.35
3.89
3.67
4.80
4.16
2
4.31
4.08
3.65
4.23
4.00
4.58
4.30
4.42
3.90
3
3.93
4.14
3.67
3.82
4.16
4.17
4.30
4.18
4.56
4
4.60
3.94
4.32
4.55
4.40
4.55
4.82
4.58
4.19
5
4.38
4.36
3.69
4.04
4.40
3.98
4.38
4.00
4.08
6
4.10
3.84
4.03
4.58
4.20
4.37
4.58
4.14
4.88
7
4.11
4.31
4.27
4.31
4.62
3.80
4.08
4.05
3.85
8
3.87
4.05
3.94
4.23
3.95
4.32
4.03
3.91
4.18
9
3.84
4.03
3.56
3.81
3.93
4.28
4.03
3.74
4.27
10
Khi sp xp li theo th t tng dn, 100 s liu kt qu o trn, ta c:
1 3.56
21 3.93
41 4.08
61 4.23
81 4.40
2 3.64
22 3.93
42 4.08
62 4.23
82 4.40
3 3.65
23 3.93
43 4.10
63 4.23
83 4.42
4 3.65
24 3.94
44 4.11
64 4.27
84 4.45
5 3.67
25 3.94
45 4.13
65 4.27
85 4.46
6 3.67
26 3.95
46 4.14
66 4.28
86 4.52
7 3.69
27 3.96
47 4.14
67 4.30
87 4.55
8 3.70
28 3.98
48 4.15
68 4.30
88 4.55
9 3.71
29 4.00
49 4.16
69 4.31
89 4.56
10 3.74
30 4.00
50 4.16
70 4.31
90 4.58
11 3.80
31 4.03
51 4.16
71 4.31
91 4.58
12 3.81
32 4.03
52 4.17
72 4.32
92 4.58
13 3.82
33 4.03
53 4.18
73 4.32
93 4.58
14 3.84
34 4.03
54 4.18
74 4.35
94 4.60
15 3.84
35 4.04
55 4.19
75 4.36
95 4.62
16 3.85
36 4.05
56 4.20
76 4.36
96 4.72
17 3.87
37 4.05
57 4.20
77 4.37
97 4.73
18 3.89
38 4.05
58 4.21
78 4.37
98 4.80
19 3.90
39 4.07
59 4.21
79 4.38
99 4.82
10
3.65
4.07
4.36
3.93
4.52
4.16
4.21
4.21
4.23
4.72
20 3.91
40 4.08
60 4.21
80 4.38 100 4.88
Bng biu din s liu thng k 100 kt qu o t 100 i tng cho trn y theo
phn nhm cch nhau khong 17 n v mt, c trnh by nh sau:
Tn s Gi tr TB Tn sut Tn sut dn
Nhm
Xi
ni
pi = ni/N
pi
3.50 - 3.67
4
3.59
0.04
0.04
3.67 - 3.84
9
3.76
0.09
0.13
3.84 - 4.01
16
3.94
0.16
0.29
4.01 - 4.18
22
4.10
0.22
0.51
4.18 - 4.35
24
4.27
0.24
0.75
4.35 - 4.52
11
4.44
0.11
0.86
4.52 - 4.69
10
4.61
0.10
0.96
4.69 - 4.86
3
4.78
0.03
0.99
4.86 - 5.03
1
4.95
0.01
1.00
Lp tri t 4.18 n 4.35 l lp c tn sut ln nht (0.24).
Bng s liu trn c th c biu din trn 2 loi th sau:
th tn sut lp
th tn sut dn
Vic phn nhm mt tp s liu c tin hnh qua mt s bc, thng thng, chia
lm 10 nhm.
V d 2: Di y l im trc nghim mn ton ca 50 hc sinh trong mt lp hc. Hy
phn tp s liu ny thnh 10 nhm.
48
35
36
40
42
32
30
46
43
40
35
15
44
48
45
28
16
41
46
39
20
19
38
47
31
25
18
39
43
28
28
33
19
39
29
36
34
29
31
18
38
13
16
29
19
41
15
44
28
12
Gii:
Bc 1: Tnh khong ca tp s liu:
Rmax Rmin = 48 12 = 36
Bc 2: Tnh khong ca nhm: 36:10 = 3.6, chn ho l 4.
Bc 3: Tnh khong ca nhm c gi tr nh nht: 12 + 3 = 15, ta c nhm c gi tr nh

nht l 12-15, t xy dng nn cc nhm c gi tr cao hn, m cc gi tr nm trong tp
s liu tm tn s ca nhm, kt qu ta c tp s liu trn c phn nhm nh sau:
Khong im
Tn s
48 - 51
2
44 - 47
6
40 - 43
7
36 - 39
7
32 - 35
5
28 - 31
10
24 - 27
1
20 - 23
1
16 - 19
7
12 - 15
4
1.2. S tri (Mo)
S tri (Mo) l s c tn sut ln nht (chnh l s c tn s xut hin ln nht) trong
tp s liu kt qu o.
1.3. Khong ca tp s (R)
Khong ca tp s, R, l khong cch gia gi tr ln nht v gi tr nh nht ca tp
s liu kt qu o. Nh vy, khong ca tp s c tnh theo cng thc sau:
R = Xmax - Xmin
1.2
1.4. S trung v (Med) v s t phn v (Q)
S trung v (Med) l s ng gia tp s liu c sp xp theo th t t b n
ln, chia dy s lm 2 phn bng nhau v s s liu.
a/ i vi cc s liu khng nhm lai:
Gi s X1, X2, X3, ..., Xn l dy cc gi tr ca tp s liu kt qu o, c sp xp theo
th t tng dn, th:
- S trung v ca tp N s l c tnh theo cng thc sau:
Med X N 1
2
1.3
V d 3 : Tm trung v ca tp s: 5, 7, 9,13,15,16,19
Gii: Med = X(7+1)/2 = X4, s th 4 l s 13 vy Med = 13
- S trung v ca tp N s chn c tnh theo cng thc sau:
1
Med [ X N X N ]
1
2 2
2
1.4
V d 4: Tm trung v ca tp s: 3, 5, 7, 9, 13, 15, 16, 19

Gii: Med
1
(9 13)
11
X 8 X 8 1
2 2
2
2
b/ i vi s liu gp thanh nhm:

- Tm trung v tp s liu c phn nhm theo cng thc sau:
M Median
N cf
LL 2
i
fm
1.5
Trong : LL = Gii (lowest limit);

6
N = Tng s trng hp; cf = Tn s dn (cumulative frequency)

fm = Tn s ng vi khong im k tip vi khong im c tn s dn c chn
i = Gi tr khong im (interval)
V d 5: Tnh gi tr trung v cho tp s liu sau:
X
f
Cf
Me
51 53
3
50
48 50
4
47
45 47
2
43
42 44
8
41
39 41
1
33
36 38
3
32
Me
33 35
9
29
30 32
2
20
27 29
3
18
24 26
5
15
21 23
6
10
18 20
0
4
15 17
4
4
Gii:
50 20
3 32.5 1.3 33.8
2
M median 32.5
S t phn v l cc s chia tp s liu thnh 4 phn t. C 3 s t phn v l Q 1= X1/4,

Q2= X2/4 v Q3= X3/4. S Q2= X2/4 trng vi s trung v Med.
a/ i vi cc s liu khng nhm lai :
- S t phn v ca tp N gi tr chia ht cho 4, th tnh theo cng thc:
Q1
1
[X N X N ]
1
2
4
4
1.6
Q3
1
[X 3N X 3N ]
2
1
1.7
- S t phn v ca tp N khng chia ht cho 4, th tnh theo cng thc :

Q1 X
N
4 1
Q3 X
3N
1
4
1.8
b/ i vi s liu gp thanh nhm :

Gi s nhm th i (Xi, Xi + 1) c ni gi tr nm trong nhm v ta c:
ni
1.9
th Med nm trong nhm th k ( Xk, Xk + 1) c tnh nh sau:
N k 1
ni
2 i 1
Me
( X k 1 X k ) X k
nk
1.10
Tng t, cc t phn v c xc nh theo cng thc chung sau y:
N k 1
ni
; Vi S = 1, 2, 3.
1.11
4 i 1
Qs
( X k 1 X k ) X k
nk
Trong thc t, ngi ta tnh t phn v Q1 v Q3 cho mt tp s liu c phn nhm theo
cng thc ging nh cng thc tnh trung v, tuy nhin c s khc nhau v v tr nn cng
thc c khc nhau cht t:
S.
N
cf
Q1 LL ( 4
)i .
fm
3N
cf
Q3 LL ( 4
)i .
fm
V d 6: Tnh Q1 v Q3 cho tp s liu phn nhm sau y:

X
f
Cf
Q1
90 -94
2
45
85 89
6
43
80 84
3
37
75 79
0
34
70 74
5
34
65 69
3
29
60 64
2
26
55 59
6
24
50 54
4
18
Q1
45 49
5
14
40 44
3
9
35 39
2
6
30 34
1
4
25 29
0
3
20 24
3
3
1.12
Q3
Q3
45 9
5 44.5 2.25 46.75
4
Q1 44.5
5
33.75 29
5 69.5 4.75 74.25
5
Q3 69.5
1.5. Trung bnh cng

Gi X l gi tr trung bnh cng ca mt tp s liu khng phn nhm th X c
tnh theo cng thc sau:
1 N
X Xi
1.13
N i 1
khi Xi xut hin ni ln th tnh theo :
X
1
N
n X
i
vi
N ni
i
1.14
V d 7: im thi mn ton ca 10 hc vin thuc nhm kh l: 78, 79, 62, 84, 90, 71, 76, 83,
98, 77. im trung bnh ca 10 hc vin l:
1
N
X
i 1
78 79 62 84 90 71 76 83 98 77
79 im
10
Trong trng hp tp s liu c phn nhm, gi tr trung bnh cng c tnh theo
cng thc tng qut sau:
f x f 2 x2 ... f k xk 1
X 1 1
f i xi
1.15
f1 f 2 ... f k
N
Trong : xi l gi tr trung bnh ca nhm, fi tn s ca nhm.
V d 8: im thi trc nghim ca 100 hc vin cho bng sau:
Gi tr trung
Tn s gi tr
in s
Tn s
bnh nhm
trung bnh nhm
90 ~100
8
95
760
80 ~89
10
85
850
70 ~79
10
75
750
60 ~69
30
65
1950
50 ~59
20
55
1100
40 ~49
12
45
540
30 ~39
5
35
175
20 ~29
2
25
50
10 ~19
2
15
30
0~9
1
5
5
Tng
100
6210
Khi , X
1
N
fx
i
6210
62.1
100
Cng thc tnh gi tr trung bnh cho tp s liu phn nhm cng dng cho trng hp
tnh gi tr trung bnh gia quyn (c trng s), khi fi trng s ca gi tr xi .
Trong thc t, ngi ta tnh gi tr trung bnh ca mt tp s liu phn nhm theo
cng thc sau:
X Mean Am (
fd ).i
N
1.16
Trong : Am = S trung bnh cng gi thit (Assumed mean)

f = Tn s (Frequency), d = lch (deviation)
i = Khong im (interval), N = S lng cc trng hp (Numbers).
V d 9: Tnh s trung bnh cng ca cc im s c nhm thnh cc khong im ca tp
s liu sau.
X
f
d
fd
90 94
2
5
10
85 89
2
4
8
80 84
5
3
15
75 79
7
2
14
70 74
10
1
10
65 69
11
0
0
60 64
8
-1
-8
55 59
3
-2
-6
50 54
0
-3
0
45 49
2
-4
-8
fd = 35
N = 50
Gii:
35
5 70.5
50
X Mean 67
1.6. Trung bnh nhn

GMx
1.17
x1 x 2 x 3 ...x n
Thng dng tnh tc tng trung bnh ca tng theo cp s, s pha long . . .
V d 10: Thng k s hc vin ti chc ng k d thi trong 4 nm ca mt c s o to
cho bng di y. Tnh: 1/ Bnh qun s ng k d thi trong 4 nm, 2/ Tc ng k d
thi tng bnh qun trong 4 nm.
Nm
2000
2001
2002
2003
S ng k thi
500
800
1600
3200
Gii:
1- Bnh qun s ng k d thi trong 4 nm l:
GMx
500 800 1600 3200 1196 hc vin
2- Tc tng tng nm:

2001 l: 800:500 = 1.6;
2002 l: 1600:800 = 2;
2003 l: 3200:1600 = 2
Vy tc ng k d thi tng bnh qun trong 4 nm l: GMx 3 1.6 2 2 1.86

Tc bnh qun tc ng k d thi tng 186% so vi nmg trc. Ni mt cch khc, hng
nm tc tng bnh qun ng k d thi l 86%.
1.7. Trung bnh iu ho
1
HMx
1 N 1
1.18
N 1 xi
Dng tnh vn tc, thi gian trung bnh, ...
V d 11: Trung bnh 1 gi, hc vin A gii c 8 bi ton, hc vin B gii c 7 bi ton,
hc vin C c 10 bi ton. Tnh tc gii ton bnh qun ca 3 hc vin trn.
Gii:
HMx
3
8.15
1 1 1
bi/1 gi

8 7 10
1.8. Trung bnh ca h: (trung bnh gia quyn)

X h=
N A X A N B X B ... N k X k
N A N B ... N K
1.19
Dng tnh trung bnh ca h gm nhiu tp s liu hoc tp s liu c trng s, ...
V d 12: Tnh im bnh qun ca 5 lp khi 10 thi mn Ton theo bng d kin sau:
Lp
A
B
C
D
E
S s
45
50
40
50
60
im TB
80
70
65
80
65
Gii:
10
45 80 50 70 40 65 50 80 60 65 17000
69.4
45 50 40 50 60
245
2. Cc tham s c trng cho s phn tn ca tp s liu

2.1. Phng sai ( 2 hoc S2)
Phng sai l trung bnh ca tng bnh phng sai khc gia cc gi tr ca tp s liu
so vi gi tr trung bnh ca tp s liu kt qu o:
2
hay
S2
1 N
(X i X ) 2
N' i 1
N' = N khi N > 30 ( 2)
Vi:
1.20
N' = N - 1 khi N < 30 (S2).
N' c bn cht l bc t do ca tp s liu kt qu o.

Cng thc thc dng tm phng sai:
N
( X i ) 2
1 N
2
S
( X i
N ' i 1
Phng sai ca h:
i 1
S 2h
Trong : S
*2
A
1.21
N A S A*2 N B S B*2 N A ( X A X ) N B ( X B X )
N A N B 1
( N A 1) S A2
v
NA
1.22
( N B 1) S B2
NB
*2
B
Phng sai c trng cho s sai bit ca cc s liu trong kt qu o. Phng sai cng
ln, sai bit cng ln. Ngc li phng sai cng nh th sai bit cng nh.
Phng sai cn biu din phn tn ca tp s liu kt qu o i vi gi tr trung
bnh. Phng sai cng ln phn tn xung quanh gi tr trung bnh cng ln v ngc li.
2.2. lch chun ( f hoc Sf)
lch chun ca mt tp s liu kt qu o l gi tr cn bc 2 tr s phng sai ca
n:
f 2
hoc
1.23
Sf S 2
lch chun c cng th nguyn v cng c ngha nh phng sai.

Trong thc t, ngi ta hay tnh lch chun theo cng thc sau y:
S
(x x)
i
V d 13: Xc nh S ca cc im s khng phn nhm sau y:

x
D
d2
92
+9
81
75
-8
64
85
+2
4
83
0
0
90
+7
49
73
-10
100
79
-4
16
80
-3
9
88
+5
25
83
0
0
1.24
d2 = 348
N = 10
Mean = 83
(x
83) 2
10
348
5.89
10
V d 14: Tnh lch chun ca tp s liu c phn nhm sau y:

X
fX
fX
70 74
72
114
10368
65 69
67
335
22445
60 64
62
558
34596
55 59
57
456
25992
50 54
52
312
16224
1775
109625
109625 1775
30
30
12.388
V d 15: Tnh lch chun ca h gm 3 loi 1, 2 v 3:

Loi
Ni
Xi
12
80
8.578
11
77.8
6.820
81.4
9.912
N 12 11 9 32, X
1
12 80 11 77.8 9 81.4
( N1 X 1 N 2 X 2 N 3 X 3 )
79.638 ;
N
32
d 12 (80 79.638) 2 0.131; d 22 (77.8 7.638) 2 3.378; d 32 (81.4 79.638) 2 3.105 ;

s
1
12(8.578 2 0.131) 11(6.820 2 3.378) 9(9.912 2 3.105) 8.56 ;
32
2.3. sai chun ( X hoc S X )

sai chun bng lch chun chia cho cn bc 2 ca s gi tr kt qu o:
f
S
SX f
X
hoc
1.25
N
sai chun c th hiu l trung bnh phn tn ca cc gi tr kt qu o.

2.4. H s bin thin (Cv)
H s bin thin l t s gia lch chun vi gi tr trung bnh:
S
C V f .100
X
1.26
V h s bin thin khng c th nguyn, cho nn c th da vo h s bin thin

so snh gn ng sai bit ca cc kt qu o thu nhn c bng cc cch khc nhau.
Khi lch chun ln (Sf) (tc sai bit ca cc s liu o ln), th Cv ln v ngc li.
12
V d 16: nh gi s pht trin ca tr 7 tui theo cn nng trung bnh l 20.37 kg vi

lch chun l 2.16 kg; trong khi , nu nh gi theo chiu cao trung bnh l 113.64 cm vi
lch chun l 4.04 cm. Hi nh gi no mc sai s ln hn?
Theo cn nng: CV
2.16
100% 10.6%
20.37
Theo chiu cao: CV
4.04
100% 3.56%
113 .64
Vy theo cn nng mc sai s ln hn.

V d 17: 10 ngi hc c im trung bnh mn Ton v mn ngoi ng tng ng l 85 v
72, trong khi hc c lch chun ca mn Ton v ngoi ng u l 6.82.
Tnh Cv cho mn ton l:
CV1
6.82
100% 8.02%
85
Cn Cv cho mn ngoi ng l
CV2
6.82
9.47%
72
Vy, tuy c lch chun ging nhau, nhng sai s i vi mn ngoi ng ln hn.
3. Cc c trng phn phi thng k ca tp s liu
c trng phn phi thng k ca mt tp s liu kt qu o l qui lut phn b ngu
nhin ca cc gi tr kt qu o trn trc s thc. c trng phn phi thng k l qui lut,
nn v mt ton hc n thng c biu din bng mt hm s v c th tng ng.
Mi tp s liu kt qu nghin cu l mt tp s ngu nhin (thng l ri rc) c
nhng c trng phn phi thng k ring v thng tun theo 1 trong 6 qui lut phn phi
thng k ngu nhin ph bin nht, l:
3.1. Phn phi chun (phn phi Gauss)(u)
- Hm s ca phn phi chun c biu din bng phng trnh ton hc:
Y(X )
( X )2
2 2
1.27
Trong :
X: l bin s ngu nhin.
: l hng s, bng gi tr k vng ca bin ngu nhin .
: l hng s, bng gi tr phng sai ca bin ngu nhin.
Gi u l chun Gauss v t:
u
1.28
thay vo phng trnh trn ta c dng chnh tc ca hm phn phi chun:

Y (u )
u2
2
1.29
Dang chnh tc ca hm phn phi chun l dng ca hm phn phi chun chuyn
h to t Y(X) sang Y(u).
Nu t l n v ca thang chia trc honh m gi tr ca n c xc nh t im

un ca ng cong chun h xung trc honh, l tham s c trng cho s tp trung cc
gi tr ca hm phn phi, th hm phn phi chun c dng chung p.
Hm phn phi chun c c dim l:
Mo Med
th ca hm phn phi chun:
- Dng tch phn ca hm phn phi chun:
a/ Y(u )du
F( u ) 1
tn sut dn t - n +
b/
Y(u )du F(u ) P tn sut dn t -u n +u
- ngha hnh hc ca tch phn l din tch gii hn bi ng cong:

F(-1, +1) = 68.27 %
F(-2, +2) = 95.45 %
F(-3, +3) = 99.73 %
Din tch ny chnh l tn sut dn ca cc gi tr nm trong vng ly tch phn. Din
tch ny cng biu din xc sut xut hin ca cc gi tr Xi nm trong vng ly tch phn.
Xc sut thng k gn lin vi khi nim tin cy thng k (P). Din tch gii hn
bi ng cong cng chnh l tin cy thng k xut hin X i trong khong tch phn. K
hiu tin cy thng k xut hin gi tr Xi nm trong vng (- , Xi) l P(Xj).
tin cy thng k lun l mt s nh hn hoc bng 1 (P(Xj) 1).
Nu k hiu l khng tin cy thng k, th:
P+=1
hay
P=1-
hoc
=1-P
Khi P =1, iu c ngha l xc sut xut hin gi tr Xi l 100%.

Trong xc sut, ngi ta qui c:
14
Bin c c P = 0.9999 l bin c hoan toan chc chn.

Bin c c P = 0.999 l bin c ht sc chc chn.
Bin c c P = 0.99 l bin c rt chc chn.
Bin c c P = 0.95 l bin c chc chn.
Bin c c P = 0.90 l bin c c chiu hng chc chn.
T hm phn phi chun, khi cho mt gi tr ui (X) th ta tnh c tin cy thng k
Pi, ng vi mt din tch Pi . Ngc li, khi cho gi tr Pj th c th tnh c mt gi tr uj(X).
Thay cho tnh ton, ngi ta lp sn nhng bng s tra gi tr u khi bit gi tr P hoc
ngc li (xem ph lc A).
3.2. Phn phi student (phn phi t)
Hm s ca phn phi student c dng:
y (t , f ) B (1
tf
Vi
tf
X
Sx
X
u
S f . f
S
N . f
t2
)
f
f 1
2
hoc
khi N
1.30
Xi X
Sf
th
1.31
1.32
Sf l lch chun, S x l sai chun

Hm phn b t ph thuc vo bin s t l mt bin ngu nhin.
f: bc t do (f = N - 1);
B: l mt hng s.
Sf: lch chun. Vy t bao gi cng ph thuc vo bc t do.
- th ca hm phn phi student:
Khi Xi l s c tn s rt ln (tc l s c tn sut rt ln) th c th suy ra gn ng

Xi X (gi tr c tn sut rt ln th gi tr ca n coi nh trng vi gi tr trung bnh).
th ca hm Student ging nh hm phn phi chun c dng chung p. N c
y cc tnh cht ging nh hm phn phi chun. Nhng khc ch: nhn ca th
hm phn phi student ph thuc vo bc t do Y(p, f).
Bc t do cng ln th nhn cng nh v ngc li. Do nhn ph thuc vo bc
t do, nn gi tr chun t cng ph thuc vo bc t do t(p,f). Trong thc t, ngi ta nhn
thy:
N > 30: tun theo phn phi chun.
N < 30: tun theo phn phi Student.

i vi phn phi Student cng c bng tra chun Student tnh sn. Da vo bng ny,
khi bit hai trong ba gi tr t, f v P th xc nh c gi tr cn cha bit.
C 2 loi bng tra gi tr t (gi l bng phn v ca chun t). Khi gi thit thng k:
Nu gi thit
Nu gi thit
H0: Xi = Xk
H0: Xi = Xk
Ha: Xi > Xk hoc Xi < Xk
Ha: Xi Xk
Th tra bng phn v ca chun t theo 1 pha Th tra bng phn v ca chun t theo 2 pha
3.3. Phn phi Fisher
Hm s ca phn phi Fisher c dng:
Y(F, f1, f2) = A
f1 2
)
2
(f 2 - f1 )
f1 f 2
2
1.33
Trong : F l bin s ngu nhin; f1, f2 l cc bc t do; A l hng s ph thuc f1 v f2.

F ph thuc vo hai loi bc t do v c tnh theo cng thc sau:
F
2
f1
2
S
f2
2
1
2
2
Vi
0 F+
1.34
th ca hm Fisher c dng:
Tu thuc vo bc t do m th c cc dng khc nhau. Hm phn phi Fisher cng

c tnh cht nh cc hm phn phi khc. Din tch gii hn bi ng cong cng biu din
tin cy thng k.
16
Ngi ta cng lp cc bng tra sn, khi cho (P, f 1 v f2) s tra c gi tr ca chun F,
ngc li cho 3 trong 4 thng s ( F,P,f1,f2 ) s tra c s th 4 cha bit.
C 2 loi bng s chnh tra chun F: Bng F(0.95,f 1, f2) v bng F(0.99,f1,f2) (xem
ph lc A).
3.4. Phn phi Khi bnh phng
Hm s ca phn phi Khi bnh phng c dng:
2
Y ( , f )
Vi:
N X X
2 ( i
)2
f
i 1
2
C.e 2
f 2
( 2 ) 2
Khi ly cc gi tr: 0 < < +
1.35
1.36
Hm Khi bnh phng ch ph thuc vo 1 bc t do.

th ca hm phn phi Khi bnh phng c dng:
Nu cho trc tin cy thng k P v gi tr f, tra bng s tm c gi tr 2 v ngc li.

3.5. Phn phi Poisson
- Hm s ca phn phi Poisson c dng:
Y(X )
X .e
X!
Vi
1.37
Nh vy, k vng v phng sai ca hm phn phi Poisson trng nhau.

- th ca hm phn phi Poisson c dng:
3.6. Phn phi nh thc

- Hm phn phi ca cc php th lp (Php th Becnuli) c dng:
P X n C Nn p n (1 p ) N n
Trong : N = s ln th nghim.
1.38
n = s ln bin c A xut hin

Khi : nu X l bin ngu nhin c c trng phn phi thng k vi tham s (N,p) l
phn phi nh thc th:
- K vng ca bin ngu nhin X l: Np
- Phng sai ca bin ngu nhin X l: 2 = Npq
- lch chun ca bin ngu nhin X l:
1.39
Npq
- sai chun ca bin ngu nhin X l: x = pq

- th ca hm phn phi nh thc c dng:
Cn phn bit khi nim ham phn phi va chun phn phi (chun thng k):
- Hm phn phi l qui lut phn b s liu kt qu o c tnh ngu nhin (cc bin
ngu nhin).
- Chun phn phi (chun thng k) l nhng gi tr ca hm phn phi tnh c theo
iu kin cho trc.
Nh vy chun phn phi c 2 dng:
+ Gi tr tra bng
+ Gi tr tnh c.
Ngi ta so snh gia gi tr tra bng v gi tr tnh c nh gi tin cy thng
k ca mt s kin, theo iu kin cho trc (theo gi tr tra bng).
3.7. Mi quan h gia cc hm phn phi v cc chun phn phi
Ta c nhn xt, mt tp s liu kt qu thc nghim ph thuc vo bc t do:
+ 2 bc t do th tun theo hm F.
+ 1 bc t do th tun theo hm t hoc 2
+ Khng ph thuc vo t do th tun theo hm u hoc P.
Trong thc nghim, cch xc nh nh tnh lut phn phi ca 1 tp s liu kt qu
o nh sau:
- Nu N >30 v c 1 trong 3 tnh cht sau th tp s liu kt qu o c qui lut phn
phi chun:
1/ th phn phi tn sut c dng chung.
2/ Mo Me X .
3/ Xi nhn cc gi tr ngoi khong
Xi nhn cc gi tr nm trong khong
X 2
X 2
l 95%.
5% hoc
18
- Nu N < 30 v c 1 trong 3 tnh cht trn th tp s liu kt qu o c qui lut phn

phi Student.
S sau y cho thy cc qui lut phn phi thng k trnh by ch l 1 trng
hp ring ca nhau m thi:
BI TP CHNG 1
Bi 1. Tin hnh nghin cu lng axit sunfuric 98,3% mt phng th nghim (lt) s dng
trong hai nm 2007 v 2009. Kt qu nh sau:
Nm 2007 30.39
30.5
Nm 2009
34.12 32.0
31.4
30.2 33.97 29.4

33.0
29.8
31.8 30.4 30.5 30.87
41.0 33.34 38.9 32.3 36.1
35.0
Xc nh cc tham s c trng v s tp trung ca tp s liu trn: s tri, khong ca

tp s, s trung v, trung bnh cng.
Bi 2. Theo mt nghin cu, thi gian c sch ca sinh vin mi ngy ti 12 lp hc ca mt
trng l:
Lp
A1 A2 A3 B1 B2 B3 C1 C2 C3 D1 D2 D3
S gi c sch/ ngy
1,5
2,5
0,5
Xc nh cc tham s c trng v s phn tn ca tp s liu trn: phng sai,

lch chun, sai chun, h s bin thin.
Bi 3. Tin hnh kho st khong thi gian trung bnh (gi/thng) sinh vin nm th ba dnh
thi gian lm nghin cu khoa hc, kt qu thu c nh sau:
29
30
19.5 28.5
29 29.5
30
31
30.5 30.5
30.5 27 29 38 34.5 27
49
37 32 31
29
48
55 21.5
40 15.5 20
35
Tnh cc i lng c trng ca tp s liu trn: khong ca tp s, s tri, s trung

v, trung bnh cng, phng sai, lch chun, h s bin thin.
Bi 4. Tin hnh xc nh hm lng amoni trong nc ngm ti 10 qun ni thnh H Ni
thu c kt qu nh sau
Qun
Hm lng
amoni
(mg/L)
Thanh Hon
Xun Kim
30.3
20.1
Hai
B
Trng
Ty
H
Ba ng
nh a
Cu
Giy
Long
Bin
22.5
21.2
19.5
27.3
28.0
23.7
Hong H
Mai ng
21.5
18.6
nh gi kt qu phn tch hm lng amoni trong nc ngm ti H Ni, vi tin

cy thng k 90%.
20
CHNG 2
NH GI TP S LIU KT QU O
Mt tp s liu kt qu o c th c phn tch nh gi thng qua cc i lng
chnh sau y:
4.1. Sai s o
C 4 loi sai s o:
- Sai s tuyt i:
A = Xi - X Xi -
2.1
Sai s tuyt i l s sai khc ca mt gi tr o no vi gi tr trung bnh (hoc gi

tr tht). Sai khc ny c th l m hoc dng.
- Sai s tng i:
R
Xi X
X
.100
Xi
X
.100
2.2
Sai s tng i l t s ca sai s tuyt i i vi gi tr trung bnh. Sai s ny

khng c th nguyn cho nn c dng so snh sai s tng i ca cc phng php o
cho kt qu khng cng th nguyn.
- Sai s h thng:
X = X - 0
2.3
Nu hiu s ny l ng tin cy tc l khc khng l ng tin cy th s o mc sai

s h thng. Khi gi tr Xi tp trung v mt pha ca gi tr thc trn trc s. Sai s h
thng c th tm c nguyn nhn gy sai s h thng loi b.
- Sai s ngu nhin:
X = X - 0
2.4
Php o mc sai s ngu nhin khi hiu s gia gi tr trung bnh cng X vi gi tr
tht gn bng khng l ng tin cy. Khi cc gi tr X i phn b u hai pha ca gi tr thc
trn trc s. Sai s ngu nhin bao gi cng mc phi v ch c th tm cc gii php gim
sai s ngu nhin.
4.2. chnh xc ca tp s liu kt qu o
V trung bnh cng biu din tp trung ca cc gi tr thc nghim nn chnh xc
ca tp s liu kt qu o c nh gi thng qua gi tr trung bnh cng. Gi tr trung bnh
cng m sai khc vi gi tr tht cng nh th chnh xc ca s o cng ln v ngc li.
Nguyn nhn dn n chnh xc km c th l:
- Chn mu khng ng v cht lng v s lng
- Gii php o s liu khng chnh xc
4.3. sai bit ca tp s liu kt qu o
V phng sai biu din sai bit trung bnh ca cc gi tr trong tp s liu kt qu
o so vi gi tr trung bnh. Phng sai cng nh th sai bit cng nh v ngc li.
Nguyn nhn chnh dn n sai bit ln:
- Chn mu v cht lng v s lng khng c trng cho mc tiu o.
- Tay ngh ngi lm o km, khng thu thp c s o.
Thc ra gi tr trung bnh cng X cng phn nh phn no sai bit khi so vi gi
tr tht v ngc li gi tr phng sai S2 cng phn nh phn no chnh xc khi sai bit
nh. Tuy nhin mi i lng c tnh tri biu din cho chnh xc v sai bit khc nhau:
X c tnh tri phn nh chnh xc, S2 c tnh tri phn nh sai bit:
Hnh v minh ho chnh xc v sai bit.
sai bit (Precision)
Cc k nh
Ln
Nh
chnh xc (Accuracy)
Cc k tt
Tt
Ti
Kt lun
ng Tt
Sai s ngu nhin
Sai s h thng
4.4. Sai s ti a cho php P(X)

Sai s ti a cho php P(X) ca mt tp s liu kt qu o c qui nh: cho php
ly cc gi tr Xi sai khc vi gi tr trung bnh X ln nht l 3. N phn nh tnh thng k
ca kt qu o. Sai s ti a cho php chia lm hai loi:
+ Sai s ti a cho php tuyt i:
P(X) = 3
2.5
+ Sai s ti a cho php tng i:

P(X )
X
3
X
.100
2.6
Sai s ti a cho php tng i c biu din di dng phn trm (%) do khng
cn th nguyn, dng so snh sai s ti a cho php tng i ca phng php o ny vi
sai s ti a cho php tng i ca phng php o khc.
Nhng gi tr kt qu o no nm ngoi khong sai s ti a cho php tuyt i th
phi loi b (v gi cc gi tr mc sai s th).
4.5. Khong chnh xc tin cy
Khong chnh xc tin cy c tnh theo cng thc sau:
X(P,f) = X - = t(P,f). Sx
2.7
Trong :
P: tin cy thng k
f: bc t do ca tp s liu kt qu o
S x : sai chun
Khong chnh xc tin cy ca mt tp s liu kt qu o chnh l khong sai khc gia

gi tr trung bnh vi gi tr tht c mt tin cy thng k cho trc. Nh vy khong chnh
xc tin cy ca 1 tp s liu kt qu o ph thuc vo tin cy thng k (P) v bc t do (f).
Khong chnh xc tin cy ca mi gi tr kt qu o c tnh nh sau:
Xi(P,f) = Xi - X = t(P,f).Sf
2.8
t(P,f): l gi tr tra bng phn v ca hm phn phi Student.

Khi mt tp s liu kt qu o c khong chnh xc tin cy khng tho mn vi tin
cy thng k (P) cho trc th c th tng thm s mu (N) o. S mu o cn thit c
22
khong chnh xc tin cy trng vi khong chnh xc tin cy l thuyt cho trc, c tnh
theo cng thc sau:
t ( P, f ).S f
N
Trong : X l cho trc
2.9
4.6. Khong gii hn tin cy ca mt tp s liu kt qu o

Khong gii hn tin cy ca mt tp s liu kt qu o c qui nh nm trong
khong:
X
X(p,f) = X t(p,f). Sx
2.10
Gi tr Xi bt k ca mt tp s liu kt qu o c chp nhn theo tin cy thng

k P cho trc, c bc t do f = N-1 phi lun nm trong khong gii hn tin cy v thng
c biu din nh sau:
Xi ( X - X X + X)
Hay
2.11
P = [ X - t(p,f). Sx < Xi < X + t(p,f). Sx ]
2.12
V d 18: Cho mt tp s liu kt qu o:

33 32 30
31
22
29
32
24
34
33 33 25
34
26
29
35
33
34
a/ Tinh cc i lng c trng ca tp s liu trn.
b/ Phn tch nh gi tp s liu.
Gii:
Dy cc gi tr ca tp s liu o c sp xp li theo th t tng dn nh sau:
22 24 25 26 29 29 30 31 32 32 33 33 33 33 34 34 34 35
a/ - S tri: Mo = 33 (ni = 4)
- S trung v:
Theo cng thc 1.4 ta c: Med =
1/2(32 + 32) = 32
- S trung bnh cng:
1 N
1
Theo cng thc 1.13 ta c: X X i (22 24 ... 34 35) 30.5
N i 1
18
- Phng sai:
Theo cng thc 1.20 ta c:
1 N
1
S2
(X i X )2
(22 30.5) 2 ... (35 30.5) 2 15.088
N ' i 1
18 1
(C th s dng cng thc 1.21 tnh phng sai)
- lch chun:
Theo cng thc 1.23 ta c: S f S 2 15.088 3.9
b/ -
H s bin thin:
Theo cng thc 1.26 ta c: CV
Sf
X
.100
3.9
100 12.7%
30.5
- Khong gii hn tin cy:

Vi tin cy 95%,
+ Tra bng ph lc A2 ta c: t(p,f) = t(0.95, 18-1) = t(0.95,17) = 2.11
+ 95%CL X t ( p, f ) S X X t ( p, f )
Sf
N
30.5
Vy: P = (30.5 1.93 xi 30.5 + 1.93) = 95%
2.11 3.884
18
30.5 1.93
28.57 xi 32.43
Vi tin cy 99% :
+ Tra bng ph lc A2 ta c: t(p,f) = t(0.99, 17) = 2.898
+ 99%CL X t ( p, f ) S X X t ( p, f )
Sf
N
30.5
2.898 3.884
18
30.5 2.65
P = (30.5 2.65 xi 30.5 + 2.65) = 99%

27.85 xi 33.15
24
BI TP CHNG 2
Bi 1. Mt nhm gm mi sinh vin tin hnh chun 10 mL dung dch HCl 2N bng
dung dch NaOH 2N thu c kt qu nh sau:
Sinh vin
10
Th tch (mL)
9.6
9.2
9.5
8.5
10.5
10.3
9.8
11.0
9.4
10.2
nh gi kt qu tp s liu thu c. c tnh 95% khong gii hn tin cy.

Bi 2. Ngi ta kim tra hm lng ch (Pb) (mg/m3) trong mt mu nc thi cng nghip
thu c kt qu bng nh sau:
13 12 14 14 15 14 15 14 17 16
12 16 17 15 17 15 16 17 18 13
17 15 15 17 13 14 16 13 14 16
a/ Xc nh hm lng trung bnh ca Pb trong nc thi cng nghip.
b/ nh gi kt qu ca tp s liu trn. c tnh 95% khong gii hn tin cy.
Bi 3. xc nh nng ion Fe3+ (g/L) trong mt mu th, mt cng ty gi mu ti 10
phng th nghim khc nhau. Kt qu thu c nh sau:
Phng th nghim 1
Nng (mol/L)
10
0.24 0.21 0.26 0.23 0.31 0.29 0.27 0.24 0.26 0.25
a/ Tnh cc tham s c trng ca tp s liu.

b/ nh gi kt qu ca tp s liu trn. Bit P = 99%
Bi 4. Php xc nh hm lng thy ngn (ppm) trong mu hp kim s dng l m siu tc,
cho kt qu trong 16 th nghim nh sau:
10.2
11.4
10.7
11.2
9.8
10.6
10.4
10.6
11.1
9.9
10.6
11.2
9.8
10.2
11.3
10.7
a/ Tnh cc i lng c trng ca tp s liu trn;

b/ nh gi kt qu ca tp s liu trn bit P = 99%.
CHNG 3
SO SNH CP THAM S C TRNG CA HAI TP S LIU KT QU O
5.1. Gi thit thng k v kt lun thng k
5.1.1. Gi thit thng k
Gi s ta c Xi v Xk l hai tham s c trng ca hai tp s liu kt qu o. Xut hin
hai gi thit thng k, trnh by bng sau:
Gi thit thng k
K hiu
ngha
Biu din
Gi thit khng
(gi thit khng lin quan)
H0
Xi Xk
Xi - Xk 0
Gi thit khc khng

(gi thit lin quan)
Ha
(H1)
Xi Xk
Xi - Xk 0
Xi>Xk; Xi<Xk
Trong : Xi v Xk c th l hai s kin, hai bin c, hoc hai i lng ngu nhin c
cng th nguyn.
5.1.2. Kt lun thng k
C hai loi kt lun thng k:
Bng phn loi cc kt lun thng k:
Tht
Gi
Kt lun thng k loi 1:

Bc b H0; Chp nhn Ha
Kt lun thng k loi 2:

Chp nhn H0; Bc b Ha
H0 (Xi Xk)
Ha (Xi Xk)
Sai (Sai lm loi 1)
ng
Ha (Xi Xk)
H0 (Xi Xk)
ng
Sai ( Sai lm loi 2)
+ Kt lun thng k loai 1: Ph nh H0 (bc b H0) v khng nh Ha (chp nhn Ha).

Kt lun thng k loi 1 dn n sai lm loi 1, l ng l H 0 (xi xk) li kt lun l
Ha (xi xk). Ni mt cch khc: ng l chng ging nhau li bo chng khc nhau.
+ Kt lun thng k loai 2: Ph nh Ha (bc b Ha). Khng nh H0 (chp nhn H0).
Kt lun thng k loi 2 dn n sai lm loi 2, l ng l H a (Xi Xk) li kt lun
l H0 (Xi Xk). Ni mt cch khc: ng l chng khc nhau li kt lun chng ging nhau.
Cn nh rng: Kt lun thng k l khng nh (hay chp nhn) mt gi thit thng k
ny v ph nhn (hay bc b) gi thit thng k kia, ch khng c ngha l cho rng gi thit
thng k ny ng cn gi thit thng k kia sai.
Trong trng hp buc phi kt lun thng k th phi gi nguyn tc: tha mc sai
lm loai 1 cn hn mc sai lm loai 2. Ni cch khc: nu khng bng chng khng
nh gi thit H0, th tha ph nhn gi thit H0, cn hn khng nh gi thit H0.
5.2. Quan h gia chun phn phi v kt lun thng k
Cc chun phn phi c th tnh c t cc s liu ca tp s liu kt qu o:
u
S2
F( P,f1 ,f 2 ) 12
S2
t ( P ,f )
Xi X
X
hoc
Sx
Sf
N
Xi X 2
)
S
f
i 1
2 ( P ,f ) (
S quan h gia chun phn phi v kt lun thng k:

26
- Nu ttnh < tbng ngha l tin cy thng k ca t tnh nh hn tin cy thng k ca

tbng vy th ttnh khng ng tin cy bng tbng.
Do ttnh khng ng tin cy bng tbng nn hiu s X - khng ng tin cy, iu c
ngha s khc nhau gia gi tr trung bnh v gi tr tht l khng ng tin cy. V chng khc
nhau khng ng tin cy cho nn c th coi nh chng ging nhau (chp nhn H 0, ph nhn
Ha).
- Nu ttnh > tbng, th ttnh c tin cy thng k ln hn tin cy thng k ca t bng. V
vy ttnh ng tin cy v do hiu s X - ch s sai khc gia X v l ng tin cy (ph
nhn H0, chp nhn Ha).
- Nu ttnh = tbng th tin cy bng nhau cho nn X - tho mn tin cy thng k
cho trc. Ni cch khc chnh xc tin cy ca tp s liu kt qu o tho mn tin cy
thng k cho trc. Trong trng hp ny, chng ta chn th mc sai lm loi 1 cn hn mc
sai lm loi 2 kt lun thng k. Ngha l th kt lun X khc hn l kt lun X ging
chn quyt nh cho ph hp.
Do tbng ph thuc tin cy thng k (P) cho trc, nn mt kt lun thng k rt ra
c ch ng vi mt tin cy thng k cho trc m thi. Khi tin cy thng k thay i
th kt lun thng k cng c th thay i theo.
Lp lun v quan h gia chun phn phi t v kt lun thng k cng p dng cho cc
chun phn phi khc. V vic s dng cc chun phn phi ca cc hm phn phi kt
lun thng k cho ng - gi l kim nh thng k (xem cc v d cui chng).
V d 19: S dng 4 kt qu o A, B, C v D. Kt qu lm lp li theo mi o 6 ln thu c
trnh by trong bng sau:
18.00
18.55
17.65
19.10
18.05
17.60
17.70
18.40
17.95
18.00
17.90
18.10
18.15
18.30
17.65
18.70
17.95
18.25
17.85
18.80
18.20
17.90
17.75
18.50
a/ Tnh gi tr Trung bnh v Phng sai ca mi mu o v nhn xt.

b/ Bit gi tr tht l 18.1. Phn tch nh gi sai s ca mi mu o.
Gii :
a/
-
Theo cng thc 1.13, gi tr trung bnh ca mu A c tnh nh sau:

XA
S A2
1
N
X
i 1
iA
1
(18 18.05 17.95 18.15 17.95 18.20) 18.05
6
Theo cng thc 1.20, gi tr phng sai ca mu A c tnh nh sau:
1 N
1
( X iA X A ) 2
(18 18.05) 2 (18.05 18.05) 2 ... (18.2 18.05) 2 0.011
N ' i 1
6 1
(c th s dng cng thc 1.21 tnh phng sai)
Tng t tnh gi tr trung bnh v phng sai cho cc mu B, C v D, thu c kt qu nh sau:
18.05
18.10
17.75
18.60
S2
0.011
0.113
0.011
0.120
b/
Gi thit thng k: H0: x ;
Ha: x
Theo cng thc 1.31: t f
S
X
vi S x f
Sx
N
- i vi mu A, ta c: t A
18.05 18.1
0.011
S2
N
= 1.168 tbng ( 95,5 ) = 2.57
Kt lun: H0: x sai s ngu nhin

28
- i vi mu B, ta c:
tB
18.1 18.1
0.113
<< tbng (95,5) = 2.57
Kt lun: H0: x sai s ngu nhin

- i vi mu C, ta c:
tC
17.75 18.1
0.011
= 8.174 tB ( 95,5 ) = 2.57
Kt lun: Ha: x sai s h thng.

Trn thc t, ngi ta cn s dng gi tri tin cy P-value kt lun thng k:
P-value mt pha = 0.5000 (gi tr ca z ti = 0) - gi tr tra bng ca z
P-value hai pha = 2(0.5000 - gi tr tra bng ca z)
Vi: P-value th bc b gi thit H0, chp nhn Ha
P-value > th chp nhn gi thit H0, bc b Ha.
V d 20: im thi bi trc nghim trung bnh ca khi 10 l 24, ly ngu nhin 36 th sinh
tnh c gi tr trung bnh l 24.7 vi lch chun l 2. nh gi xem gi tr trung bnh ca
cc th sinh ny c khc ca khi khng?
Gii:
- Gi thit H0 l 24, Ha l > 24
0 24.7 24
u
2.10
- Tnh gi tr:
2
x
36
- Tra bng ph lc A1: z = 2.10, tra c z ( = 0.05) = (0.98214 - 05000 ) = 0.4821
- Tnh hiu: 0.5000 0.4821 = 0.0179, trong trng hp 1 pha ny chnh l P-value
Vy P-value = 0.0179 < 0.05 (), kt lun: bc b H0, ngha l 36 th sinh ny thc s c im
trung bnh cao hn khi 10
V d 21: Mt nghin cu tr khuyt tt c ch s IQ trung bnh l 80, kim tra li vi mu l
32 tr khuyt tt, cho thy chng c ch s IQ trung bnh l 82, vi lch chun l 6. Ti
=0.05 vi mu kim tra nh vy c tin cy (P- value) cho rng nghin cu trn
khc vi mu kim tra khng?
Gii:
- Gi thit H0 l = 80, Ha l 80
- Tnh gi tr
0 82 80
1.89
6
x
32
- Tra bng ph lc A1: z = 1.89, tra c z ( =0.05) = ( 0.9706 0.5000) = 0.4706

- Tnh hiu: 0.5000 0.4706 = 0.0294, trong trng hp hai pha ny, P-value cn
nhn vi 2.
Vy P-value = 2(0.0294) = 0.0588 > 0.05, kt lun: chp nhn H 0, ngha l kt qu
nghin cu khng khc vi mu kim tra.
5.3. So snh cp tham s c trng ca hai tp s liu kt qu o
C hai cp tham s c trng quan trng nht thng phn tch so snh l:
* So snh chnh xc: c trng bi X , khi c hai trng hp chnh:
1. So snh X vi
2. So snh X A v X B
* So snh sai bit: c trng bi S2.
Tu theo NA v NB nh hay ln, ging nhau hay khc nhau, tin hnh so snh theo
cch khc nhau.
5.3.1. So snh chnh xc
Nguyn tc so snh l dng chun u hoc chun t so snh, v:
u
X XB
Xi X
hoc t A
Sx
Sf
Vi N > 30 dng chun u , cn N < 30 dng chun t.

Cch tnh ton chun u hoc t v so snh vi cc gi tr tra bng c phn thnh cc
trng hp sau:
5.3.1.1. Nu NA va NB > 30. Dng chun u so snh:
d
d
d
. N
f
utnh = x f
N
3.1
Trong : d X A X B
3.2
S f d
N
A2 B2
N A NB
3.3
N A .N B
NA NB
3.4
5.3.1.2. Nu NA va NB < 30, dng chun t so snh chia lam hai trng hp chnh:
1/. Nu NA NB <30.
(ging trng hp 3.1.1)

t ( p, f )
d
d
. N
Sx S f
3.5
Trong : d X A X B
3.6
S A2 ( N A 1) S B2 ( N B 1)
( N A 1) ( N B 1)
Sd S f
N
3.7
N A .N B
NA NB
3.8
f = (NA - 1) + (NB - 1) = NA + NB - 2
2./ Nu NA = NB = N'<30.
Chia lm 2 trng hp.
a. Khng lin quan vi nhau tng i mt:
t ( p, f )
3.9
d
d
. N
S x Sf
3.10
Trong : d X A X B
Sd S f
3.11
S A2 S B2
2
3.12
30
NA
NB
N'
2
3.13
f = NA + NB - 2
b. C lin quan tng i mt:
3.14
Sx
t (p, f )
du
N'
Sf
3.15
N'
Trong : du X Au X Bu
3.16
N
du
3.17
d u 1
N'
N
Sd S f
(d
u 1
d)2
N 1
N
NA
N 1
NB
N'
2
3.18
3.19
f = NA - 1 = NB - 1 = N'- 1
3.20
V d 22: Cho kt qu o ca A v B:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
A
33.5
33.9 33.5 34.9 34.1 33.2 33.2 31.1
31.1 31.7
B
31.1
32.9 32.8 31.9 33.0 31.6 32.1 31.5
31.0 31.0
Phn tch nh gi v phn tch so snh 2 kt qu o trn.
Gii:
- Theo cng thc 1.13, gi tr trung bnh ca mu A c tnh nh sau:
XA
1
N
X
i 1
iA
1
(33.5 33.9 33.5 34.9 ... 31.1 31.1 31.7) 33.02
10
Tng t ta tnh c X B =31.89

S A2
Theo cng thc 1.20, gi tr phng sai ca mu A c tnh nh sau:
1 N
1
( X iA X A ) 2
(33.5 33.02) 2 (33.9 33.02) 2 ... (31.7 33.02) 2 1.679
N ' i 1
10 1
Tng t ta tnh c S B2 = 0.619
(c th s dng cng thc 1.21 tnh phng sai)

*Khng lin quan tng i mt:
H0 = 2 kt qu o khng khc nhau.
Ha = 2 kt qu khc nhau.
- Theo cng thc 3.11:
d = 33.02 31.89 = 1.13
Sd
S 2A S 2B
=1.0719
2
tt
d
Sd
N
1.13 10
2.357
2 1.0719 2
Tra bng ph lc ta c: tb ( 0.95 ; 18 ) = 2.101

Kt lun tt > tb chp nhn Ha, bc b H0
*Lin quan tng i mt:
H0 = 2 kt qu o khng khc nhau.
Ha = 2 kt qu khc nhau.
d

d
n
11.3
1.13
10
Sd =
tt
d
Sd
1.13
1.013
10 3.55
tb (0.95; 9) = 2.26 ttnh tb chp nhn Ha , bc b H0

tb (0.99; 9) = 3.25 ttnh > tb chp nhn Ha, bc b H0
Nhn xt: - Kho st lin quan tng i mt v kho st khng lin quan tng i mt u
cho thy s khc nhau gia 2 kt qu.
- Khi thay i tin cy thng k th c 1 s trng hp c th dn n thay i kt
lun thng k.
5.3.2. So snh sai bit
V Phng sai c trng cho sai bit, nn so snh sai bit, chnh l so snh
phng sai. Ngi ta s dng chun Fisher so snh:
Chun Fisher: F(p, f1 , f 2 )
S12
S2
2
(S12 S 22 )
3.21
Khi :
Gi thit H0: S12 = S22 c chp nhn khi v ch khi F khng ng tin cy.
( Ftnh < Fbng ( p,f1,f2 ) ).
Gi thit Ha: S12 S22 c chp nhn khi v ch khi F ng tin cy .
( Ftnh > Fbng ( p,f1,f2 ) ).
V :
S12
> 1 nn: S12 > S22
S 22
Vic so snh Ftnh v Fbng lun ph thuc vo tin cy thng k cho trc.
V d 23: Cho hai tp s o A v B thu c t kt qu nghin cu nh sau :
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
A 4.40
4.56 4.42 4.59 4.55 4.45 4.55 4.39
4.75
B 4.42
4.47 4.70 4.72 4.53 4.55 4.60 4.64 4.29
11
A 4.53
12
4.66
13
4.90
14
4.50
15
4.45
16
4.66
17
4.80
18
4.36
19
4.75
10
4.72
4.52
20
4.22
32
B 4.57
4.56 4.66
a/ Tnh cc i lng c trng ca tp hai tp kt qu o trn.
b/ So snh gi tr phng sai ca 2 tp kt qu o A v B.
Gii :
a/
-
p dng cng thc 1.13 ta c:

xA
1
1
xiA
( 4.40 4.56 4.42 ... 4.36 4.75 4.22) 4.5605
20
20
Tng t, tnh c x B
-
1
1
xiB
(4.42 4.47 ... 4.56 4.66) 4.556
13
13
p dng cng thc 1.20 ta c:

S A2
1 N
1
( xiA x A ) 2
(4.40 4.5605) 2 ... (4.22 4.5605) 2 0.029
N ' i 1
20 1
Tng t, tnh c S B2
1
( 4.42 4.556) 2 ... ( 4.66 4.556) 2 0.0139
13
b/
-
p dng cng thc 3.21:
S A2
0.029
F 2
2.086 Fb ( 95,19,12) 2.54
S B 0.0139
Kt lun: chp nhn H0, bc b Ha
BI TP CHNG 3
Bi 1. Xc nh hm lng COD ca 5 mu nc thi t nh my giy Bi Bng. S dng
phng php chun (PP1) v s dng b kit COD LR (VARIO TUBE TEST) (PP2), thu
c kt qu nh sau:
Th nghim
PP1 (mg/L)
3210
3195
3230
3225
3232
PP2 (mg/L)
3201
3210
3214
3209
3215
So snh chnh xc ca hai phng php trn vi tin cy l 95%.

Bi 2. Hai k thut vin (KTV) tin hnh phn tch hm lng ccbon (%) trong mu thp
trong cng mt m. Kt qu phn tch c ch ra bng di y, bi 8 ln phn tch lp li
vi = 0.05.
STT
KTV 1
KTV 2
0.35
0.36
0.45
0.35
0.39
0.35
0.36
0.37
0.43
0.34
0.39
0.36
0.38
0.40
0.41
0.40
a/ Tnh gi tr Trung bnh v Phng sai trong kt qu o ca mi k thut vin v nhn xt.
b/ Bit gi tr tht l 0.393. Phn tch nh gi sai s trong kt qu o ca mi k thut vin.
c/ Thnh phn ccbon trong kt qu o ca hai k thut vin c ging nhau khng,
Bi 3. Thi gian phn r (pht) ca mt loi vin bao t hai x nghip dc phm (XNDP)
khc nhau c kim nghim nh sau:
XNDP I
61
72
68
73
71
70
69
74
XNDP II
62
69
65
65
70
71
68
73
Thi gian phn r ca hai loi vin bao ca 2 x nghip dc phm c ging nhau hay
khng? P = 95%
Bi 4. Xc nh lng vt Zn trong nc s dng phng php XRF v FAAS, kt qu thu
c nh sau:
Th nghim
10
XRF
(gL-1 Zn)
138 117 108 127 116 138 120 117 112 110
FAAS
(gL-1 Zn)
130 140 119 125 135 132 138 131 127 122
Hy phn tch v so snh phng sai hai phng php trn? Vi tin cy 95%?
PHN II
PHN TCH NHN T TC NG LN S O
CHNG 4
PHN TCH HI QUI V TNG QUAN CA CC NHN T
6.1. Hi qui v tng quan hai nhn t
Phn tch hi qui v tng quan l tm mi quan h gia hai nhn t X v Y xem
chng tun theo qui lut no (c th c m t bng m hnh ton hc no). Cc qui lut
u c biu din bng mt hm s. Trong cc tng quan, c tng quan tuyn tnh c
s dng nhiu nht.
6.1.1. Hi qui tuyn tnh
Hi qui tuyn tnh gia X v Y c biu din bng hm s c dng:
34
Y = aX + b.
tm h s a v b ta phi gii h phng trnh :
4.1
Y Nb a X
XY bX a X
4.2
Gi h phng trnh trn, h s a c tnh theo cng thc sau:

N
(X
i 1
(X
i 1
X. Y
X Y N
( X)
X
X )(Yi Y )
i
X)
i i
4.3
2
i
Cn h s b c tnh sau khi bit a theo phng trnh:

b=Y-a X
4.4
6.1.2. Hi qui phi tuyn tnh
Hi qui phi tuyn gia 2 nhn t X v Y l mt ng cong, c th m t bng ng
hi qui Parabon, Hypebon hay Hm s m...
1/Hi qui Parabon c dang:
Y = aX2 + bX + c
4.5
tm cc h s a,b, v c phi gii h phng trnh :
Y a X b X Nc
XY a X b X c X
X Y a X b X c X
4.6
2
2/Hi qui Hypebon c dang :

Y = a/X + b
tm cc h s a v b, ta phi gii h phng trnh :
Y a 1 Nb
Y X a 1 X 2 b 1 X
6.1.3. H s tng quan (r) Spearman
H s r, nh gi mc tng quan gia X v Y:
4.7
4.8
x
( X i X )2
ra
a
hay
y
(Yi Y ) 2
X Y
XY
i i
ii
(2 Xi ) 2 (Yi )2
{ Xi }{Yi }
N
N
2
4.9
Du ca h s tng quan:
r > 0 gia X v Y c tng quan thun.
r < 0 ga X v Y c tng quan nghch.
ngha ca h s tng quan:
0 1 > r > 0.7 th X v Y rt tng quan.
0.7 > r > 0.5 th X v Y kh tng quan.
0.5 > r > 0.3 th X v Y c tng quan.
0.3 > r
th X v Y khng tng quan.
6.1.4. H s tng quan th bc Spearman rho
H s , nh gi mc tng quan th bc c thng s hoc khng thng s gia 2
nhn t X v Y vi N s liu o tnh theo cng thc sau:
6( d i )
2
rho 1
N ( N 2 1)
4.10
Trong :
- d l s sai khc gia X i v Yi. tnh gi tr d, Xi phi c xp theo th t t thp
n cao hoc ngc li, cn Yi c xp tng ng tng cp.
- N s s liu o (s gi tr Xi hay Yj ).
V d 24: Kho st kt qu thi trc nghim mn Ton (T) v mn Ho (H) cui hc k ca 10
hc sinh, cho bng sau:
im im
Th hng Th hng
d
d2
HS
T2
H2
TxH
T
H
T
H
t.hng t.hng
A
30
25
900
625
750
4
6
-2
4
B
34
38
1156 1444
1292
2
2
0
0
C
32
30
1024
900
960
3
4
-1
1
D
47
40
2209 1600
1880
1
1
0
0
E
20
7
400
49
140
9
10
-1
1
F
24
10
576
100
240
7
9
-2
4
G
27
22
729
484
594
5
7
-2
4
H
25
35
625
1225
875
6
3
3
9
I
22
28
484
784
616
8
5
3
9
36
16
12
277
256
247
144
8359
192
7355
10
7539
d = 0
d =36
2
a-Tm phng trnh hi qui tng quan tuyn tnh,

b- H s tng quan Spearman,
c- H s tng quan Spearman rho.
Gii :
a/
- Theo cng thc 4.3 ta c:
N
(X
i 1
X )(Yi Y )
(X
i 1
X )2
X Y
i i
2
i
X . Y
i
N
( X i ) 2
N
247 277
697.1
10
0.556
2
1254.1
(247)
7355
10
7539
- Theo cng thc 4.4 ta c:

b = Y aX = 27.7 - 0.556 x 24.7 = 13.97
Vy phng trnh hi qui tuyn tnh c dng: y = 0.556 x + 13.97
b- H s tng quan spearman:
rsp
7539
247 277
10
2
247
277
[7355
].[8356
]
10
10
697.1
1254.1 683.1
0.753
c-H s tng quan Spearman-rho:

rho 1
6 36
216
1
1 0.218 0.782
10(100 1)
990
Kt lun: Tng quan th bc cht ch hn tng quan Spearman.

6.2. Tnh tng quan ca s kin nh phn
V d 25: Ly ngu nhin 15 im mn Ton trong bng im ca mt lp hc, kt qu cho
bng sau y, trong c im ca 9 Trai v 6 Gi:
T
im
86 91 90 66 58 99 74 88 72 89 62 65 78 67 85
C phi kh nng Ton hc ca Trai v Gi l tng quan?

Gii:
gii bi ton, ngi ta s dng cng thc tnh tng quan nh thc:
rpb
-
X p Xq
pq
t
Theo cng thc 1.13 tnh gi tr trung bnh ca im s con trai:

Xp
1
(86 91 90 ... 67 85) 80
9
Tng t, tnh c im s trung bnh ca con gi:

58 88 72 L 78
Xq
75.
6
4.12
Theo cng thc 1.20, tnh phng sai ca im s con trai:

S2
1
(86 80) 2 (91 80) 2 ... (67 80) 2 (85 80) 2 171
9
lch chun ca im s con trai tnh ra l: t = 13.08

T l con trai l p =9/15=0.6; T l con gi l q = p-1 = 0.4.
Tnh im trung bnh ca Trai v Gi:
86 91 90 66 L 67 85
Xp
80.
9
Vy h s tng quan tnh c l:
rpb
X p Xq
pq
80 75
0.6 0.4 0.187
13.08
Bc t do trong trng hp ny c tnh theo cng thc: f = N-2, vy ta c:

d f 15 2 13, tra bng tng quan nhi phn ta c: r 13 0.05 0.514. Vy: rpb r 13 0.05,
Ta c th kt lun l kh nng ton hc ca Trai v Gi ging nhau.
6.3. Hi qui v tng quan a nhn t
Phng trnh hi qui a nhn t (n nhn t) c dng tng qut nh sau:
n
Y a 0 ai X i aij X i X j aij .... n X i X j .... X n aij X i2 aij ... X in

Hi qui v tng quan a nhn t cng c phn thnh hai loi tuyn tnh v phi
tuyn tnh. Vic gii cc bi ton hi qui v tng quan a nhn t cng theo nguyn tc c
bao nhiu h s phi c by nhiu phng trnh tham s gii.
c c cc tham s gii, ngi ta phi lp cc ma trn th nghim ring (ma
trn tm trc giao, ma trn tm xoay, ...) v tin hnh th nghim c tp d liu tng ng
cho vic gii.
38
BI TP CHNG 4
Bi 1. xc nh tnh tan (y) ca natri thiosunfat vo nhit (x). Ngi ta tin hnh 9 th
nghim v thu c kt qu nh sau:
x1 (0C)
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
y1 (%)
33.5
37.0
41.2
46.1
50.0
52.0
56.3
64.3
69.9
a/ Hy cho bit yu t nhit c lin quan tuyn tnh vi tnh tan ca natri thiosunfat khng?
b/ Tnh h s tng quan Spearson.
Bi 2. Tng lng phenol ca mt mu c tnh bng mg axit galic/lit (mg GAE/L). Khi xc
nh hm lng tng phenol (x) ca 5 mu thng qua hp th quang (y), ngi ta thu c
kt qu nh sau:
x
60
80
100
120
140
y (nm)
0.285
0.346
0.424
0.480
0.527
Tm mi tng quan tuyn tnh v h s tng quan gia hp th quang v nng

axit galic
CHNG 5
PHN TCH TC NG CA CC NHN T QUA THAM S LN S O
(PHN TCH PHNG SAI)
Phng php phn tch phng sai (ANOVA) c hai loi bi ton ph bin v coi nh
l c s cho cc bi ton chung v phn tch phng sai.
- Bi ton mt nhn t, k mc o, mi mc o lm lp li n ln.
- Bi ton hai nhn t A v B, nhn t A lm k mc o, nhn t B lm m mc o, vi
mi mc ca 2 nhn t A v B cng tin hnh o lp li n ln.
- Bi ton ba nhn t tr ln.
7.1. Bi ton mt nhn t
Bi ton ny c m t bng mt bng qui hoch o c dng sau:
A1
A2
A3
...
y11
y21
y31
yi1
yk1
y12
y22
y32
yi2
yk2
y13
y23
y33
yi3
yk3
...
...
...
...
y1j
y2j
y3j
...
...
...
...
y1n
y2n
y3n
yin
ykn
Tng
ny1j
ny2j
ny3j
nyij
Nykj
...
Ai
...
...
...
yij
...
...
Ak
...
ykj
...
...
So snh s sai khc gia cc gi tr kt qu o (yij) do thay i cc mc o (Ai) ca

nhn t A, phng sai ca s thay i cc mc o vi sai s o (phng sai ca sai s o) c
khc nhau ng tin cy hay khng.
Nu khc nhau khng ng tin cy, nhn t A t ra khng nh hng ln kt qu o,
v ngc li, nu khc nhau ng tin cy th chng t nhn t A nh hng ln kt qu o.
S dng chun Fisher so snh phng sai:
Ftnh
S12
= 2
S2
so vi
Fbng (P,f1,f2)
5.1
Trong :
S12: c trng cho s khc nhau ca kt qu o (y ij) do s khc nhau gia cc mc
(Ai) ca A gy ra.
S22: c trng cho sai s o ni chung, v lm nghin cu bao gi cng mc sai s.
f1: Bc t do ca tng s cc mc o lm f1 = k - 1
f2: Bc t do ca tng s cc o tin hnh qui hoch o f2 = k(n - 1).
40
Vi:
H0: S12 S 22 ;
Ha: S12 S 22 ;
V F lun ln hn 1 (F > 1), nn:

- Nu Ftnh < Fbng th Ftnh khng ng tin cy, tc l S12 S22 khng ng tin cy cho
nn chng c coi l ging nhau. Chng khng khc nhau cho nn nhn t A khi thay i
mc t ra khng c nh hng n kt qu o.
- Nu Ftnh > Fbng th Ftnh ng tin cy, tc l S12 S22 suy ra nhn t A nh hng
ln kt qu o.
Nhn t
(Xi - X)2
k1
SSA = SS2 - SS3
Th nghim
k(n - 1)
SSTN = SS1 SS2
S2
S A2
2
S TN
SS A
k 1
SS TN
k (n 1)
Nhm d tnh ton, trnh nhm ln, ngi ta lp bng cc cng on tnh phng sai
so snh cho bi ton 1 nhn t, k mc o v n ln lp li nh trn.
Bng trn thc cht s dng cng thc tnh phng sai:
12 2 1 2 (Xi)
S (Xi X) {Xi }
N N N
2
5.2
Cc nh ngha k hiu cho phng php tnh, trnh by bng trn nh sau:
n
SS 2
1 k 2
Ai
n i 1
5.3
SS1 ( yij ) 2 ;
SS 3
1 k
( Ai ) 2
N i 1
5.4
Ai
ij
j 1
i 1 j 1
Ri tnh Ftnh:
S A2
Ftnh = 2
S TN
so vi
Fbng(P, fA, fTN)
Trong fA = k -1; fTN = k(n-1), N = k(n-1)

7.2. Bi ton hai nhn t
Bi ton phn tch phng sai hai nhn t:
Nhn t A: k mc o.
Nhn t B: m mc o.
Mi mc th nghim lp li n ln.
Bng qui hoch o ca bi ton nh sau:
A
5.6
a1
a2
...
ai
b1
y111,y112
. . . , y11n
y211,y212
. . ., y21n
...
yi11,yi12
. . .,yi1n
yk11,yk12
. . .,yk1n
b2
y121,y122
. . ., y12n
y221,y222
. . .,y22n
...
yi21,yi22
. . .,yi2n
yk21,yk22
. . ., yk2n
yij1,yij2
. . ., yijn
ykj1,ykj2
. . .,ykjn
yim1,. . .
. . .,yimn
ykm1,. . .
. . .,ykmn
...
...
ak
...
y1j1,y1j2
. . ., y1jn
bj
y2j1,y2j2
. . .,y2jn
...
...
...
y1m1, . . .
. . . ,y1mn
bm
y2m1,. . .
. . .,y2mn
...
Phng php tnh phng sai ca qui hoch o 2 nhn t cho bng sau:
Nhn t
(Xi - X )2
k1
SSA = SS2 - SS4
S A2
SS A
k 1
m1
SSB = SS3 - SS4
S B2
SS B
m 1
AB
(k-1)(m-1)
SSAB=SS1-SS2-SS3+ SS4
Tno
mk(n - 1)
SSTN = SS1 SS4
S2
2
S AB
SS AB
( k 1)( m 1)
2
S TN
SS TN
mk ( n 1)
Trong :
- SA2: c trng cho nh hng ca nhn t A ln kt qu o.
- SB2: c trng cho nh hng ca nhn t B ln kt qu o.
- SAB2: c trng cho nh hng ng thi ca c hai nhn t A v B ln kt qu o .
- STN2: c trng cho sai s o.
Cc bc tnh phng sai theo bng trn nh sau:
Yij
ij
5.7
u 1
Trong : u - o lp li th u; i - mc i vi A; j - mc i vi B
Cng thc trn chnh l tng tt c cc kt qu o trong mt . (1 l tng ng m t
iu kin o xij theo mc A (ai) v mc B (bj) trong lm lp li n ln).
n
Yij2 ( yij u) 2
5.8
u 1
Tng tt c cc kt qu o
trong 1 ct
m
Ai y ij u
i 1 u 1
Tng tt c cc kt qu o
trong 1 hng
k
B j y ij u
j 1 u 1
5.9
42

k
Yij u Ai
Tng cc ct = tng cc hng:
5.10
i 1 j 1 u 1
Cc gi tr trong bng trn c tnh theo cng thc sau:

k
SS1 y ij u 2
SS 2
i 1 j 1 u 1
SS 4
kmn
yij u
i 1 j 1 u 1
1 k 2
Ai
mn i 1
SS 3
1 m 2
Bj
kn j 1
k
m
1
1
( Ai ) 2
( B j ) 2
kmn i 1
kmn j 1
5.11
5.12
Lm o theo mt qui hoch nh trc theo bng qui hoch ho o ca 2 nhn t nh

hng ln kt qu o trn phi c 3 trng hp so snh nh sau:
S A2
FA 2
S TN
S B2
FB 2
S TN
FAB
2
S AB
2
S TN
5.13
fA = k -1;
fB = m - 1;
fAB = (k - 1)(n - 1) v fTN= mk(n - 1)
V d 26: Qui hoch hai nhn t: A, k mc; B, m mc; mi cp mc lm lp li n ln.
A
a1
a2
a3
a4
b1
13.2
13.9
4.7
5.8
53.4
48.3
13.6
13.2
b2
18.0
21.1
19.8
17.9
14.0
13.2
9.5
8.6
b3
7.3
8.5
38.2
37.7
5.1
5.9
54.4
55.2
b4
20.0
20.8
60.1
60.9
19.6
18.5
58.2
59.7
a1
a2
a3
a4
hng
b1
27.1
10.5
101.7
26.8
166.1
b2
39.1
37.7
27.2
18.1
122.1
b3
15.8
75.9
11.0
109.6
212.3
b4
40.8
121.0
38.1
117.9
317.8
ct
122.8
245.1
178.0
272.4
818.3
Gii:
1. Tng cc gi tr trong 1 vung Latin :
2. Bnh phng tng cc gi tr thc nghim trong 1 :

a1
a2
a3
a4
b1
734.41
110.25
10342.89
718.24
b2
1528.81
1421.29
739.84
327.61
b3
249.64
5760.81
121.0
12012.61
b4
1064.64
14641.0
1451.61
13900.41
3. Tm tng s i vi cc ct:
Th d: A1 = 27.1 + 39.1 + 15.8 + 40.8 = 122.8
4. Tm tng s i vi cc hng:
Th d: B2 = 39.1 + 37.1 + 27.2 + 18.1 = 122.1
5.Tm tng tt c cc kt qu :
yiju = Ai = Bj = 818.3
6. Tm tng bnh phng ca tt c cc kt qu:
SS1 = yiju2 = 32916.43
7. Tm tng bnh phng ca tng cc ct chia cho s kt qu mi ct:
SS 2
1
(122.8 2 245.12 178 2 272.4 2 ) 22262.95
4 2
8. Tm tng bnh phng ca tng cc hng chia cho s kt qu mi hng:

SS 3
1
1
188565.75
B 2j
(166.12 122.12 212.3 2 317.8 2 )
23570.72
4 2
4 2
8
9. Tm s hng b chnh c nh ngha nh l php chia ca bnh phung ca tng tt c

cc kt qu cho tng s s kt qu:
SS 4
( y ij u ) 2
32
818.3 2
20925.47
32
10. Tm tng bnh phng ca s sai khc ca A v B:

SSA = SS2 - SS4 = 22262.95 - 20925.47 = 1704.48
SSB = SS3 - SS4 = 23570.72 - 20925.47 = 2645.25
11. Tm tng bnh phng ca phng sai sai s:
1
(32916.43 65724.61)
2
54.13
SSsai s = SS1 y ij
n
2
12. Tm tng ca tng bnh phng:
SStng = SS1 - SS4 = 32916.43 - 20295.47 = 11990.96
13. Tm tng bnh phng ca s hng tng tc:
SSAB = SStng SSA SSB SSsai s
= 11990.96 1704.48 2645.25 54.13 = 7587.11
14. Tm phng sai tng ng:
SS A2
SS A 1704.48
568.16 ;
k 1
4 1
SS B2
2
SS AB
SS AB
7587.11
843.01
( k 1)(m 1) (4 1)(4 1)
2
S saiso
SS saiso
54.13
3.38
mk ( n 1) 4 4( 2 1)
SS B
2645.25
881.75
m 1
4 1
Ghi thnh bng ta c :

Nhn t
( )2
S2
1704.48
568.16
2645.25
881.75
AB
7587.11
843.01
44
Sai s
16
54.13
Tng
31
11990.97
2
A
2
SS
FA
S
S
FB
S B2 881.75
260.87 3.2
3.38
S SS2
FAB
3.38
568.16
168.09 F (0.95;3;16) 3.2
3.38
2
S AB
843.01
2
249.41 F (0.95;9;16) 2.54
3.38
S SS
Kt lun: nhn t A, B v tng tc ng thi AB u nh hng mnh ln kt qu o.

7.3. Bi ton ba nhn t tr ln: Phng php vung Latin
Trong trng hp c ba nhn t tr ln, ngi ta s dng phng php vung la tinh
xy dng ma trn th nghim (Bng qui hoch th nghim).
Bn cht ca phng php vung Latin l phng php phn tch phng sai nhng
xy dng bng qui hoch o theo mt qui lut ring.
Gi thit c ba nhn t A, B, C mi nhn t c 4 mc nghin cu, Mi m t 1 iu
kin o l t hp cc mc o ca 3 nhn t. Th d: 1 khi lm o A ly mc a 1, B ly mc
b1. C ly mc c1.
Nguyn tc xy dng qui hoch o theo vung Latinh nh sau: khng c cho
mt iu kin o xc nh lp lai trong cng 1 hang hay 1 ct. Ni 1 cch khc: trong bng
qui hoch o khng c c hai ging nhau:
a1
a2
a3
a4
b1
c1
y1111,y1112,y1113
c2
y2121,y2122,y2123
c3
y3131,y3132,y3133
c4
y4141,y4142,y4143
b2
c2
y1221,y1222,y1223
c3
y2231,y2232,y2233
c4
y3241,y3242,y3243
c1
y4211,y4212,y4213
b3
c3
y1331,y1332,y1333
c4
y2341,y2342,y2343
c1
y3311,y3312,y3313
c2
y4321,y4322,y4323
b4
c4
y1441,y1442,y1443
c1
y2411,y2412,y2413
c2
y3421,y3422,y3423
c3
y4431,y4432,y4433
Qui hoch ho o theo phng php vung Latin dng phng php phn tch
phng sai nh gi. Cch tnh phng sai ca phng php vung Latin 3 nhn t, mi
nhn t 4 mc, lm theo nh qui hoch bng trn, cho bng sau:
( X i )
S2
Nhn t
n1
SSA = SS2 - SS5
S A2
SS A
n 1
n1
SSB = SS3 - SS5
S B2
SS B
n 1
n1
SSC = SS4 - SS5
S C2
SS C
n 1
2
i
TNo
SSTNo = SS1 - SS2 - SS3

- SS4 + 2 SS5
(n-1)(n-2)
2
S TNo
SS TNo
(n 1)(n 2)
Cch tnh cho bng trn l:

A1 = y111 + y122 + y133 + y144
A1: Tng cc gi tr y (y l gi tr trung bnh ca 3 ln th nghim lp ca cng iu
kin theo mt ) c mc a1 tham gia (tc l tng trung bnh cc kt qu ca cc trong ct
a1).
Tng t, ta tnh cc gi tr khc l:
A2, A3, A4 l tng ca cc kt qu c mc a2, a3, a4 tham gia tng ng.
B1, .., B4 l tng ca cc kt qu c mc b1, b2, b3, b4 tham gia tng ng.
C1, .., C4 l tng ca cc kt qu c mc c1, c2, c3, c4 tham gia tng ng.
n
SS1 yij2
5.14
j 1 i 1
SS1 l tng bnh phng ca cc gi tr c mt trong bng.

1 n 2
SS 2 Ai
n i 1
SS 5
SS 3
1 n 2
Bj
n j 1
SS 4
1 n 2
Cq
n q 1
1 n
1 n
1 n
( Ai ) 2 ( B j ) 2 ( C q ) 2
N i 1
N j 1
N q 1
5.15
5.16
Phng php ny c s dng rt ph bin trong o nng nghip, lm nghip, sinh

hc, y hc v x hi - tm l hc.
V d 27: Qui hoch ho o theo phng php vung Latin, 3 nhn t, mi nhn t 4 mc.
B
b1
a1
a2
A
a3
a4
Tng
Ct
b2
c1
13.2
c2
2.7
19.0
8.0
c1
c1
16.3
32.9
c1
9.5
31.5
c4
51.5
c4
c4
5.9
c4
7.2
15.3
c3
4.6
c3
c3
Tng hng
b4
49.2
c2
14.7
b3
c2
53.1
c2
60.9
c3
55.2
157.0
72.2
52.0
95.1
147.1
125.0
Gii:
1. Tm tng ca cc Ci:
C1= 70.5 ; C2 = 135.7 ; C3 = 116.9 ; C4 = 43.3
2. Tm tng bnh phng ca tt c cc kt qu:
SS1 y ij2 13.2 2 2.7 2 ..... 55.2 2 14505.14
3. Tm trung bnh ca tng bnh phng theo hng:

SS 2
72.2 2 52.0 2 95.12 147.12

9649.82
4
46
4. Tm trung bnh ca tng bnh phng theo ct:

51.5 2 32.9 2 157.0 2 125.0 2
11002 .16
4
SS 3
5. Tm trung bnh tng bnh phng theo Ci :

SS 4
70.5 2 135.7 2 116 .9 2 43.3 2

9731.31
4
6. Tm s hng b chnh:
SS 5
1
(72.2 52.0 95.1 147.1) 2 8390.56
4 4
1
(51.5 32.9 157.0 125.0) 2 8390.56
4 4
1
(70.5 135.7 116 .9 43.3) 2 8390.56
4 4
7. Tm tng bnh phng i vi hng (i vi A):

SSA = SS2 - SS5 = 9649.82 - 8390.56 = 1259.26
8. Tm tng bnh phng i vi cc ct ( i vi B ):
SSB = SS3 - SS5 = 11002.16 - 8390.56 = 2611.60
9. Tm tng bnh phng i vi ( vi C):
SSC = SS4 - SS5 = 9731.31 - 8390.56 = 1340.75
10. Tm tng tng bnh phng:
SStng = SS1 - SS4 = 14505.14 - 8390.56 = 6114.58
11. Tm tng d ca tng bnh phng:
SSd = SStng - SSA - SSB - SSC
SSd = 6114.58 - 1259.26 - 2611.60 - 1340.75 = 902.97
12. Tm phng sai ca A:
SA2 = SSA/3 = 419.75
13. Tm phng sai ca B:
SB2 = SSB/3 = 870.00
14.Tm phng sai ca C:
SC2 = SSC/3 = 446.92
15. Tm phng sai sai s:
Sss2 = 902.97/6 = 150.5
Cc kt qu c trnh by trong bng sau:
FA
Nhn t
( )2
S2
1259.28
419.75
2611.60
870.00
1340.75
446.92
Sai s
902.97
150.50
Tng
15
6114.58
S A2
419.75
2.64 F (0.95;3;6) 4.8

2
150.5
S SS
FB
S C2 446.92
S B2 870.00
5
.
62
4
.
8
F
2.88 4.8
;
C
150.5
150.5
S SS2
S SS2
Kt lun : Ch c yu t B l nh hng ln kt qu o.
BI TP CHNG 5
Bi 1. Kt qu phn tch hng s tc phn ng ring (pht -1) ca phn ng x phng ho
etyl axetat v NaOH ti nhit 0 0C trong phng th nghim c ch ra trong bng di.
Mi th nghim c thc nghim vi my khuy t v khuy bng tay. Kt qu c phn
tch bng php tch phn v vi phn.
Khuy t
Khuy bng tay
Phng php tch phn 0,02058 0,02121 0,01849 0,01816

0,02214 0,02073 0,01951 0,01884
Phng php vi phn
0,01995 0,02003 0,01725 0,01752

0,01968 0,01982 0,01696 0,01726
Phng php phn tch d liu khc nhau v phng php khuy c nh hng ti kt qu
hay khng? 0,05
Bi 2. Kho st nh hng ca pH n hiu sut x l nc thi phm nhum (%), ngi ta thu c kt qu
nh sau:
pH=2
pH=3
pH=4
pH=5
Ln 1
84,73
92,19
87,64
82,76
Ln 2
84,59
83,47
86,72
89,56
Ln 3
86,22
86,81
87,57
75,23
Ln 4
88,49
89,85
76,29
83,6
Ln 5
87,07
90,22
85,79
76,59
Dng phn tch phng sai phn tch s nh hng ca pH ti hiu sut x l mu. Vi tin
cy thng k 95%.
Bi 3. Xem xt nh hng pH v nhit n vic x l Cd trong nc thi vi nng Cd
ban u l 10 mg/l trong thi gian 30 pht, mi th nghim c lp li 3 ln. Kt qu thu c
nh sau:
pH
2,5
3,5
4,5
48
0,536
0,635
0,698
0,532
0,579
0,602
0,423
0,457
0,520
0,356
0,279
0,325
0,469
0,487
0,504
25
0,513
0,524
0,499
0,498
0,429
0,456
0,456
0,412
0,431
0,334
0,298
0,320
0,386
0,404
0,432
30
0,510
0,438
0,489
0,495
0,429
0,413
0,395
0,386
0,372
0,278
0,265
0,302
0,321
0,354
0,367
35
0,672
0,628
0,698
0,567
0,501
0,532
0,435
0,463
0,394
0,347
0,406
0,425
0,458
0,431
0,560
40
0,789
0,669
0,658
0,678
0,652
0,623
0,602
0,582
0,579
0,532
0,565
0,572
0,567
0,597
0,651
Nhit
20
Phn tch tc ng ca pH v nhit ti kt qu x l Cd trong nc thi, 0,05 .
PHN III. PHN TCH NHN T

CHNG 6
PHN TCH TC NG
CA CC NHN T KHNG QUA THAM S LN S O
8.1. Bi ton c tham s t l gia 2 nhn t, mi nhn t 2 mc
Gi s kho st mi quan h gia hai nhn t X v Y, X c 2 mc l X 1 v X2, Y c
2 mc l Y1 v Y2, kt qu o kho st trong N trng hp, biu din nh sau:
X
X1
X2
Y1
a(X1,Y1)
b(X2,Y1)
a+b
Y2
c(X1,Y2)
d(X2,Y2)
c+d
a+c
b+d
N = a+b+c+d
Trong a(X1,Y1), b(X2,Y1), c(X1,Y2) v d(X2,Y2) l cc kt qu o mang cc c

trng tng ng ca 2 nhn t X v Y.
C 2 loi nh gi i vi loi kt qu o ny:
- nh gi nh hng ca X ln Y, khi dng chun Khi bnh phng nh gi.
- nh gi tng quan gia X v Y, khi dng h s tng quan nh gi.
8.1.1. Dng chun Khi bnh phng ( 2) nh gi
- Gi thit: H0 = X1 v X2 khng nh hng khc nhau i vi Y.
Ha = X1 v X2 nh hng khc nhau i vi Y.
- Bt ng thc nh gi:
2 tnh < 2bng th chp nhn H0, bc b Ha;
2tnh > 2bng th bc b H0, chp nhn Ha;
Trong :
2 tnh = (
Xi X
X
)2
N (ad bc ) 2
(a b)(c d )(a c)(b d )
6.1
50
8.1.2. Dng H s tng quan nh gi

- Tnh h s tng quan r Spearman:
ad bc
( a b)( c d )( a c)(b d )
vi -1 r +1
6.2
Khi a = d = 0 th r = -1 v b = c = 0 th r = +1
ad = bc th r = 0; ad > bc th r > 0; ad < bc th r < 0
- Kt lun thng k bng chun t:
t
r
1 r 2 so vi gi tr t tra bng t ( p, f= N -2 )
N 2
6.3
V d 28: Xc nh mi lin quan gia cht ph gia X vi bn nhit ca Composit Y - s

liu thu c nh sau:
Khng c ph gia
C cht ph gia
Tng s
Khng bn nhit
225
25
250
Bn nhit
15
35
50
Tng s
240
60
300
- Kho st theo 2 (tnh theo cng thc 6.1):

2
300( 225 35 25 15) 2

93.75 2 [0.95; f ( 2 1)(2 1) 1] 3.84
250 50 240 60
Kt lun: C lin quan cht ch gia cht ph gia v bn nhit ca Composit Y.

- Kho st theo h s tng quan (tnh theo cng thc 6.2):
r
(225 35) (15 25)

250 50 240 60
7500
0.55
13416
sai chun tnh c:

Sr
1 r2
N 2
1 0.55 2
298
0.6975
0.04
17.26
nh gi theo chun t:
t
0.55
13.75 t (0.95;298) 1.65
0.04
Kt lun: Gi tr t ng tin cy, tc l h s tng quan ln hn sai s o, (r >> sr), do

vy: cht ph gia v bn nhit c mi lin h mt thit vi nhau.
8.2. Bi ton t l gia 2 nhn t X (c s mc) v Y (c r mc)
Gi s kho st mi quan h ca 2 nhn t X (c s mc) v Y (c r mc) trong N i
tng .Kt qu kho st c th trnh by trong bng sau y:
Y
X
Y1
X1
n11
X2
n12
...
...
Xj
n1j
...
...
Xs
n1s
n1.
N.P11
Y2
n21
N.P21
N.P22
...
...
ni1
N.Pi2
...
...
nr1
N.Pr2
n.1
...
n.2
...
n.j
ni.
N.Pis
...
...
nrs
...
N.Prj
...
nis
...
nrj
...
...
...
N.Pij
n2.
N.P2s
...
nij
...
nr2
N.Pr1
...
...
n2s
...
N.P2j
...
N.Pi1
N.P1s
n2j
...
ni2
...
Yr
N.P1j
n22
...
Yi
N.P12
nr.
N.Prs
...
n.s
Trong :
n.j l s gi tr c c tnh Xj ca nhn t X.
ni. l s gi tr c c tnh Yi ca nhn t Y.
nij l s gi tr c dng Yi ca nhn t Y v c dng Xj ca nhn t X.
Nh vy, xc sut 1 s o c c tnh Yi (hoc Xj) = tn sut xut hin s o c c tnh Yi
(hoc Xj) c tnh theo cc cng thc sau:
P (Yi )
ni
N
nj
P( X j )
6.4
D dng nhn thy l:

s
P(Y )
i
i 1
ni
i 1
P( X
j 1
n
j 1
6.5
V xc sut 1 s o va c c tnh Yi va c c tnh Xj (c xem l 2 bin c c lp)

c tnh bng cng thc sau:
P(Yi.Xj) = P(Yi)P(Xj) hay Pij
r
Vi
P
i 1 j 1
ij
1
q2
ni n j
N N
6.6
Khi ta c h thc:
r
i 1 j 1
(nij N . Pij ) 2
6.7
N . Pij
2 bng(p,f) vi f = ( r -1 )( s - 1)
Nu:
q2 tnh > 2 bng th X nh hng ln Y (X v Y khng c lp)
q2 tnh < 2 bng th X khng nh hng ln Y (X v Y c lp)
V d 29: iu tra 100 thanh nin v c im: thch mu sn vng v khng thch, ta c kt
qu bng di.
Nam
Tng
52
23
32
(22.55)
Khng
(32.45)
18
27
(18. 45)
Tng
(26.55)
41
59
55
45
n = 100
C th xem s thch v mu sn khng ph thuc gii tnh khng (vi mc = 5%).

- Trc tin, tnh pij theo cng thc 6.6:
p ij
ni .n j
N2
; t tnh Npij
n1 n1
41 55
100
22.55 .
2
N
100 2
- Theo cng thc 6.7:
th d :
Np11 N
(23 22.55) 2 (32 32.45) 2 (18 18.45) 2 (27 26.55) 2
22.55
32.45
18.45
26.55
0.00898 0.0062403 0.0109756 0.0076271 0.033823
2 q2
tinh2 = 0.033823 < tra bang2 = 3.84 (vi P=0.95, f= (2-1)(2-1)=1)

Kt lun: S thch mu sn c lp vi gii tnh.
8.3. Bi ton so snh 2 t l
X
X
p A A v
pB B
- so snh 2 t l:
NA
NB
ta dng chun t:
p A pB
ttnh =
Trong :
pq pq
N A NB
XA XB
NA NB
6.8
q=1- p
6.9
- 2 iu kin p dng cng thc trn:

1/ Mu phi ln, t nht phi c:
NA p , NB p 5 v NA q , NB q
2/ p v q phi gn 0.5 , ngha l xa 1 v 0, c th ta phi c:

p > 0.1 v q < 0.9 hoc p < 0.9 v q > 0.1
- Kt lun thng k:
* Gi thit thng k: Ho: pA pB ; Ha: pA pB
* Kt lun thng k:
t < 1.96: chp nhn Ho, bc b Ha ( = 0.05 )
t > 1.96: chp nhn Ha, bc b Ho ( = 0.05 )
V d 30: nh gi cht lng phn bn 2 nh my A v B, ngi ta thu c:
+ nh my A: kho st n1 = 300 bao, c: m1 = 250 bao t cht lng
+ nh my B: kho st n2 = 400 bao, c: m2 = 240 bao t cht ling
Vi = 0.05, hy so snh xem 2 nh my c t l cht lng nh nhau khng?
Gii:
Bi ton so snh t l :
p1
250
0.833
300
p2
240
0.6 v q2 = 1 0.6 = 0.4
400
p
t12
v q1 = 1 0.833 = 0.167
250 240
0.7 v q = 1 0.7 = 0.3
300 400
0.833 0.6
0.7 0.3 0.7 0.3
300
400
6.65 t (0.95; f 698) 1.96
Kt lun : T l cht lng sn phm ca A v B l khc nhau.

BI TP CHNG 6
Bi 1. Kt qu iu tr trn hai nhm bnh nhn: mt nhm dng thuc v mt nhm dng gi
dc tm tt nh sau:
Bin php iu tr
S bnh nhn khi bnh
S bnh nhn khng khi
Thuc
24
20
Gi dc
20
23
T l khi bnh do thuc ( 24/39 = 61%) v do gi dc (20/43 = 46%) c khc nhau v mt

thng k?
Bi 2. Nghin cu mi lin quan gia bnh ung th vi vic ht thuc cho ta s liu sau:
Khng ht thuc
C ht thuc
Tng s trng hp
Khng b ung th
600
200
800
B ung th
35
165
200
Tng s
635
365
1000
Vi = 0.05, xc nh mi lin h gia bnh ung th v vic ht thuc.
54
CHNG 7
M HNH HO THC NGHIM A NHN T BC MT Y V RT GN
9.1. i cng v m hnh ho thc nghim a nhn t
V nguyn tc mi s kin u c th qui v mt qui lut, qui lut phi c m t
bng nhng cng c khc nhau, chnh xc nht l s dng cng c ton hc. Ton hc l khoa
hc m t cc qui lut, khi gi l m hnh ho ton hc v c biu din bng cc phng
trnh hay cc biu thc ton hc.
Cc phng trnh ton hc c biu din bng nhng hm s, n lt cc hm s
li c biu din bng cc th.
Phng trnh ton hc tng qut nht l a thc, v vi mi loi hm s cui cng u
c th qui v di dng a thc.
Mt a thc tng qut (Phng trnh hi qui) c th m t cho bt k hm s no. a
thc c: a thc bc 1, bc 2, ... bc cao. Tng ng vi bc ca a thc l chnh xc ca
m hnh. Bc cng cao th m hnh m t cng chnh xc qui lut v ngc li:
n
i j
y bi xi bij xi x j
i j k
bijk xi x j xk ... bii xi2 ...
7.1
Trong :
- y: hm mc tiu, m hnh nghin cu m t qui lut tm c.
- xi: nhn t hoc s kin hay nhn t nh hng ln hm mc tiu.
- bi: h s hi qui bc 1, m t nh tnh v nh lng nh hng ca nhn t x i ln hm mc
tiu.
- bij: h s hi qui bc 1, m t nh hng ng thi ca 2 nhn t xi v xj.
- bijk: h s hi qui bc 1, m t nh hng ng thi ca c 3 nhn t xi, xj v xk.
- bii: h s hi qui bc 2, m t nh hng bc 2 ca nhn t th xi ln kt qu thc nghim.
H s hi qui ca phng trnh hi qui cho ta bit:
- V gi tr tuyt i bi m t mc nh hng ca n: gi tr ln th nh hng mnh, gi tr
nh th nh hng yu hay khng nh hng.
- V du ca h s b:
b > 0: nh hng tch cc ln hm mc tiu v n lm hm mc tiu tng ln.
b < 0: nh hng tiu cc ln hm mc tiu v n lm hm mc tiu gim i.
ngha ca ham mc tiu: Phng trnh hm mc tiu hoc phng trnh hi qui
nhm m t nh hng ca tt c cc yu t ln qu trnh bng mt phng trnh. Khi tm
c hm mc tiu m t ng thc nghim, chng ta s tnh trc c gi tr ca hm mc
tiu, tc l tnh c kt qu nghin cu m khng cn lm nghin cu.
Nguyn tc tm cc h s hi qui: c bao nhiu n s (h s hi qui b) th t nht phi
c by nhiu phng trnh (nu khng th phng trnh s v nh hoc v nghim).
V d: c 3 nhn t x1, x2 v x3 nh hng ln kt qu nghin cu y. Phng trnh hi
qui bc mt ba nhn t c dng:
y b0 x0 b1 x1 b2 x2 b3 x3 b12 x1 x2 b13 x1 x3 b23 x2 x3 b123 x1 x2 x3 7.2
Phng trnh hi qui trn c 8 s hng, nu tm ra 8 h s b l s thc, t vo

phng trnh hi qui, khi ta c mt m hnh m t i tng nghin cu, v c th
khng cn lm thc nghim m vn tnh ra c kt qu nghin cu bng m hnh tm c
nu m hnh m t ng.
9.2. M hnh ho thc nghim bc 1 y
Nu mi nhn t ch ly 2 mc thc nghim th s cc s hng ca phng trnh hi
qui bc 1 y , c tnh theo cng thc:
N = 2n
7.3
- N: s s hng ca phng trnh hi qui bc1 (chnh l s thc nghim phi lm)
- n: s nhn t nh hng ln kt qu thc nghim.
- 2: s mc c chn i vi mi nhn t.
Th d c 3 nhn t n = 3 th s s hng s l N = 23 = 8
C bn loi s hng chnh:
- boxo: t hp chp 0.
- bixi: t hp chp 1.
- bijxixj: t hp chp 2.
- bijkxixjxk: t hp chp 3.
Tm s s hng ca mi loi t hp, ngi ta dng cng thc t hp tnh:
Cni
n!
i!( n i )!
7.4
i vi phng trnh 3 nhn t:

S s hng chp 0:
C30
S s hng chp 1:
3!
1
0!(3 0)!
C13
S s hng chp 2:
C32
3!
3
2!(3 2)!
3!
3
1! (3 1)!
7.5
S s hng chp 3:
C3
3
3!
1
3! (3 3)!
7.6
Ngi ta dng cc gi tr m ho cho mi nhn t v ch chn 2 mc lm thc

nghim: mc cao + 1 v mc thp - 1. t X 1, X2 v X3 l cc k hiu ch gi tr thc ca 3
nhn t tin hnh thc nghim, bng iu kin thc nghim trnh by nh sau:
Bng 7.1. iu kin tin hnh thc nghim
x1
x2
x3
Mc gc (0)
01
02
03
Khong bin thin ()
3
56
Mc cao (+1)
01 + 1
02 + 2
03 + 3
Mc thp (-1)
01 - 1
02 - 2
03 - 3
Cc gi tr 0, +1, -1 l cc gi tr m ho cc mc thc nghim trong ma trn dng

tin hnh thc nghim.
xc nh 8 h s l s thc ca phng trnh hi qui, phi tin hnh 8 thc nghim,
8 thc nghim ny c trnh by di dng ma trn thc nghim nh sau: x 0, x1, x2, x3 l k
hiu m ho ca cc nhn t ta kho st nh hng ca chng ln kt qu thc nghim. Cn
y1, y2 k hiu cho cc gi tr kt qu thc nghim ln th 1 v ln th 2.
ngha hnh hc ca bng ma trn trn c biu din qua 1 hnh hp m 8 nh ca
n tng ng vi 8 th nghim cho thy hnh 7.1.
N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
x0
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
x1
-1
+1
-1
+1
-1
+1
-1
+1
x2
-1
-1
+1
+1
-1
-1
+1
+1
Bng 7.2. Ma trn thc nghim 23

x3
x1x2
x1x3
x2x3
x1x2x3
-1
+1
+1
+1
-1
-1
-1
-1
+1
+1
-1
-1
+1
-1
+1
-1
+1
-1
-1
-1
+1
+1
-1
-1
+1
+1
-1
+1
-1
-1
+1
-1
-1
+1
-1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
YI
YII
y1
y2
y3
y4
y5
y6
y7
y8
Hnh 7.1. Cc im sao va im tm ca ma trn thc nghim 23

Ma trn thc nghim i hi phi tun theo 3 iu kin sau:
1. Ma trn thc nghim c tnh cht chun ho:
N
x
u 1
2
iu
xi: nhn t nh hng th i.
7.7
u: th nghim th u.
2. Ma trn thc nghim c tnh cht i xng:
N
x
u 1
iu
7.8
3. Ma trn thc nghim c tnh cht trc giao:

N
x
u 1
iu
x ju 0
7.9
Cc bc gii bi ton m hnh ho thc nghim gm:

Bc 1: Lp ma trn thc nghim.
Lp ma trn thc nghim theo 3 tnh cht trn, thun tin, ngi ta lp bng ma trn
gc theo mt s m ho: du m (-) ch mc thp, x i ghi trong bng ch rng n ly mc cao
(+), xi khng xut hin tc l ly mc thp (-), ghi bng sau:
Bng 7.3. Bng vit tt ma trn thc nghim gc t 22 n 25
N
22
23
24
25
1
2
x1
3
x2
4
x1x2
5
x3
6
x1,x3
7
x2,x3
8
x1,x2,x3
9
x4
10
x1,x4
11
x2,x4
12
x1,x2,x4
13
x3,x4
14
x1,x3,x4
15
x2,x3,x4
16
x1,x2,x3,x4
17
x5
18
x1,x5
19
x2,x5
20
x1,x2,x5
21
x3,x5
22
x1,x3,x5
23
x2,x3,x5
24
x1,x2,x3,x5
25
x4,x5
26
x1,x4,x5
27
x2,x4,x5
28
x1,x2,x4,x5
29
x3,x4,x5
30
x1,x3,x4,x5
58
31
x2,x3,x4,x5
32
x1,x2,x3,x4,x5
Bc 2: Lam th nghim theo ma trn thc nghim.
Lm thc nghim lp li ly gi tr trung bnh. Th t tin hnh thc nghim phi
ngu nhin trnh sai s h thng. 16 s ngu nhin ca 32 thc nghim lp nh sau:
2, 15, 9, 5, 12, 14, 8, 13, 16, 1, 3, 7, 4, 6, 11, 10.
15, 13, 10, 5, 14, 4, 6, 1, 7, 8, 3, 2, 9, 12, 11, 16.
Bc 3: nh gi s lp lai ca th nghim.
Nu mi th nghim c tin hnh a ln (a-s ln lp li ca th nghim), nh gi s
lp li ca th nghim theo chun Cochran:
S u2 (max)
Gtnh
S
u 1
7.10
2
u
S u2 ( y iu y iu ) 2
Trong :
7.11
i 1
Vi u: thc nghim th u; a: s thc nghim lp li; N: s thc nghim.

Gbng(p,f1,f2) vi: f1 = a 1 v f2 = N(a 1).
Nu Gtnh < Gbng th Gtnh l khng ng tin cy, khi S u2 (max) l sai s ln nht ca
thc nghim khng ln hn tng sai s ton b thc nghim. Vy thc nghim lp li.
Nu Gtnh > Gbng, thc nghim khng lp li th a phi tng ln cho n khi G tnh <
Gbng v khi lm thm thc nghim s cho x cng gn gi tr thc.
Bc 4. Tnh cc h s hi qui bng cc cng thc sau:
N
bi
xiu yu
bij
u 1
N
N
bijk
x
u 1
iu
x
u 1
iu
x ju y u
7.12
x ju xku yu
7.13
N
Bc 5. nh gi tnh c ngha ca h s hi qui:
V b* ch ra nh hng nh tnh v nh lng ca cc nhn t ln kt qu thc
nghim, nn phi c bi > sai s cu thc nghim th khi gi tr ca h s b i mi gi l c
ngha. V vy, mt h s hi qui c coi l c ngha nu tho mn bt ng thc sau:
ti tnh > ti bng (P,f)
Vi:
ti tnh
bi
S bi
7.14
trong :
S 02
N
a/ Trng hp 1: Vi thc nghim ch c th nghim lp tm
S bi2
7.15
S 02
m
Trong :
yu0
y
i 1
0
iu
1 m 0
( y iu y u0 ) 2
m 1 i 1
vi m: s thc nghim lp tm
7.16
7.17
m
V: f = m 1
b/ Trng hp 2: Mi th nghim tin hnh a ln.
S 02
1
N
S
u 1
2
u
7.18
Trong : f = N(a 1);

Nhng h s no khng tho mn bt ng thc trn th c loi b khi phng
trnh hi qui. Vic loi b ny ch phn nh nh hng ca nhn t c h s b i ln kt qu
thc nghim nh hn sai s thc nghim.
Bc 6. nh gi tnh ph hp ca phng trnh hi qui tm c:
nh gi tnh ph hp ca phng trnh hi qui l nh gi m hnh thu c m t
th nghim ng hay cha ng.
S dng bt ng thc:
Ftnh < Fbng(P,f1,f2)
7.19
Ftnh
2
S phuhop
2
S phuhop
S 02
1 N
( y u y u ) 2
N L u 1
7.20
7.21
Trong :
- y u : kt qu thc nghim th u tnh theo phng trnh hi qui sau khi loi b
nhng h s khng c ngha.
- y u : gi tr trung bnh ca a ln thc nghim ca thc nghim th u.
- y u - y u : sai s gia l thuyt v thc nghim thc nghim th u.
a/ Trng hp 1: Vi thc nghim ch c th nghim lp tm
S 02
1 m 0
( y iu y u0 ) 2
m 1 i 1
7.16
Vi: f1 = N L; f2 = m 1 (m-s thc nghim lp tm)

b/ Trng hp 2: Mi th nghim tin hnh a ln.
S 02
1
N
S
u 1
2
u
7.18
Vi: f1 = N L; f2 = N(a 1);

L: s s hng cn li sau khi nh gi tnh c ngha ca cc h s hi qui
Nu Ftnh < Fbng th sai khc gia l thuyt v thc nghim l khng ng tin cy, nn
m hnh m t ng thc nghim.
V d 31: Nghin cu dn nhit ca phn thng hoa sinh ra khi clo ha x titan nng chy.
tnh ton v cc my ca h thng ngng t khi thit k my clo ha, ta cn phi bit h s
dn nhit ring ca phn thng hoa. dn nhit c xc nh theo nhit ca n, mt
ca cht v thnh phn ha hc.
60
Cc bin c lp c chn l:1/ Z 1: nhit , 0C; 2/ Z2: hm lng Clo trong phn
thng hoa, % trng lng; 3/ Z3: t s nng SiO2 v TiO2 trong phn thng hoa.
thun tin cho vic nghin cu ngi ta a vo bin o x 0, x0 = 1 v ta c ma trn
qui hoch vi bin o c trnh by trong ma trn quy hoch vi bin o 23
Trong v d ny, v khng lm th nghim lp li tt c cc th nghim, nn xc
nh phng sai lp li (sai s th nghim) ta lm 3 th nghim lp tm v nhn c ba gi
tr ca hm mc tiu y nh sau:
y10 295 ;
y 20 312 ;
y 30 293
Xc nh phng trnh hi qui bc 1 y m t thc nghim. Vi P = 95%

Bng 7.4. Phng n tin hnh th nghim c vit di dng ma trn 23
Cc nhn t theo t l xch t nhin
Cc nhn t trong h m ha
S th t
th nghim
Z1
Z2
Z3
x1
x2
x3
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
300
200
300
200
300
200
300
200
45
35
35
45
45
35
35
45
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.25
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.75
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
296
122
239
586
232
292
339
383
Cc bc gii
Phng trnh hi quy bc mt ba nhn t y c dng nh sau:
y = b0 + b1x1 + b2x2 + b3x3 + b12x1x2 + b13x1x3 + b23x2x3 + b123x1x2x3
thun tin cho vic tnh ton, ma trn k hoch ha thc nghim c m rng
trong bng sau:
Stt
x0
x1
x2
x3
x1x2
x1x3
x2x3
x1x2x3
y
Cal/m.hC
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
296
122
239
586
232
292
339
383
Trong : + = +1 v - = 1
Bc 1. Xc nh cc h s hi qui bi
-
Xc nh cc h s b0, b1, b2, b3

N
p dng cng thc 7.12,
bi
x
u 1
iu
yu
(t s l php ton tnh tng ca cc gi tr
N
khi gn du ct xi vo ct y tng ng theo hng), ta c:
8
b0
x
u 1
0u
y 0u
8
311.125
8
y1u
1 296 1 122 1 239 1 586 1 232 1 292 1 339 1 383

8
1 296 ( 1) 122 ... ( 1) 383

34.625
8
8
Tng t, xc nh c b2 = 63.125; b3 = 0.375
- Xc nh cc h s b12; b23; b13
b1
u 1
1u
p dng cng thc 7.12:
bij
x
u 1
iu
x ju y u
(t s l php ton tnh tng ca cc gi
N
tr khi gn du ct xixj vo ct y tng ng theo hng), ta c:
8
b12
1u
x 2u y u
8
1 296 1 122 (1) 239 (1) 586 1 232 1 292 (1) 339 (1) 383
8
75.625
u 1
Tng t, xc nh c b23 = 67.125; b13 = 8.625

- Xc nh h s b123
N
p dng cng thc 7.13,
bijk
x
u 1
iu
x ju x ku yu
(t s l php ton tnh tng ca cc
N
gi tr khi gn du ct xixjxk vo ct y tng ng theo hng), ta c:
8
b123
1u
x 2 u x 3u y u
8
1 296 1 122 (1) 239 (1) 586 (1) 232 ( 1) 292 1 339 1 383
8
26.125
u 1
Bc 2. nh gi tnh c ngha ca h s hi qui

Tnh c ngha ca cc h s hi qui c kim nh theo tiu chun t:
ti tnh
bi
S bi
S0
S 02
Trong S
hay S bi
. Do vy ta tin hnh cc bc sau:
N
N
- Xc nh gi tr S0
2
bi
62
V d trn thc hin 3 th nghim lp tm, nhn c 3 gi tr y10 295 ; y 20 312 ;

y 30 293 . Theo cng thc 7.17 ta c:
m
0
iu
0
iu
(vi m l s th nghim lp tm)

295 312 293
300
m
3
3
p dng cng thc 7.16, ta c
y u0
i 1
(y
i 1
0
iu
y u0 ) 2
(295 300) 2 (312 300) 2 (293 300) 2

109
m 1
3 1
Xc nh Sbi. p dng cng thc 7.15 ta c:
S 02 109
------> Sbi = 3.69
N
8
Xc nh ti tnh , p dng cng thc 7.14 ta c:
S 02
i 1
S b2 i
ti
t0
b0
S bi
bi
S bi
311.125
84.3
3.69
Tng t, tnh c t1 = 9.38;t2 = 17.107;

t3 = 0.102;
t12 = 20.4945; t13 = 2.337;
t23 = 18.191; t123 = 7.08
- Xc nh t tra bng
Vi P = 95%, f = m 1 = 3 1 = 2
Tra bng 2 chiu trong ph lc A2 ta c: t0.95 (2) = 4.3
Nh vy, t3 < tp(f) v t13<tp(f), do cc h s b 3 v b13 b loi ra khi phng trnh hi qui.
Phng trnh vi cc h s hi qui cn li c dng:
= 311.125 34.625x1 + 63.125x2 75.625x1x2 + 67.125x2x3 26.125x1x2x3
y
(*)
Bc 3. nh gi tnh ph hp ca phng trnh hi qui thu c
Stt
x0
x1
x2
x3
x1x2
x2x3
x1x2x3
(yu - y u )2
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
296
122
239
586
232
292
339
383
305
113.75
248
577.75
223
300.25
330
391.25
81
68.0625
81
68.0625
81
68.0625
81
68.0625
thun tin cho vic tnh ton, ta lp bng ma trn cha cc ct
v (yu - y u )2. Trong :
u : kt qu thc nghim th u tnh theo phng trnh hi qui sau khi loi b cc
y
h s khng c ngha (phng trnh *).

yu: kt qu thc nghim th u
- Xc nh Sphuhop theo phng trnh 7.21 ta c:

N
2
S phuhop
(y
u 1
yu ) 2
N L
- Xc nh Ftnh theo phng trnh 7.20 ta c:

Ftnh
2
S phuhop
S02
- Xc nh Ftra bng
P = 95%, = 0.05; f1 = N L = 8 6 = 2; f2 = m 1 = 3 1 = 2.
Tra ph lc A4 xc nh c F0.95(2,2) = 19.2
- Kim nh
Do Ftnh = 2.735 < 19 = Ftra bng, do phng trnh hi qui tm c m t ng thc
nghim.
= 311.125 34.625x1 + 63.125x2 75.625x1x2 + 67.125x2x3 26.125x1x2x3
y
(*)
9.3. M hnh ho thc nghim bc 1 rt gn
Lm thc nghim theo ma trn bc 1 y th s thc nghim qu ln khi n ln. Khi
phi tin hnh thc nghim rt gn.
S thc nghim rt gn c tnh theo cng thc:
N = 2n-q
7.22
Vi n l s cc nhn t kho st v q l mc rt gn.
C th minh ho c s ca vic rt gn s thc nghim l hnh hp c 8 nh, c th
gn ng thay hnh hp ny bng mt hnh t din ni tip trong ch c 4 nh, tc l lm 4
thc nghim thay v lm 8 thc nghim. Khi lm thc nghim theo phng php ny s cho ta
m hnh c gn ng thp hn so vi m hnh thc nghim y .
Hnh 7.2. So snh m hnh y va rt gn

Lp ma trn rt gn theo cc nguyn tc sau:
- S ma trn ct trng vi s nhn t: n (ngha l khng rt gn s nhn t, ch rt gn s th
nghim).
- Ma trn ct gc trng vi s ma trn (n - q) chun.
- S cc s hng chp (t hp chp) c suy ra t biu thc tng phn v biu thc pht
sinh:
64
* Biu thc tng phn:

x1.x2.x3 = 1
V d:
7.23
* Biu thc pht sinh:

x12.x2.x3 = x1
V d:
7.24
v x1 = 1 (vi x1 = 1)
2
Suy ra:
x2x3 = x1
x1x3 = x2
7.25
x1x2 = x3
T biu thc tng phn v biu thc pht sinh, ta s xy dng c ma trn thc
nghim bc 1 rt gn, tho mn cc tnh cht ca ma trn thc nghim.
Bng 7.5. Bng ma trn thc nghim rt gn 23-1
(c 3-1=2 ma trn ct gc l x1 v x2, ct x3= x1x2)
N
x0
x1
x2
x3= +x1x2
x3= - x1x2
+1
-1
-1
+1
-1
+1
+1
-1
-1
+1
+1
-1
+1
-1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
-1
Phng trnh hi qui c dng:

y b0' x0 b1' x1 b2' x2 b3' x3
7.26
Cc h s bi' suy bin, c cha cc thnh phn b i' = i ik c tm ra theo biu thc
pht sinh.
Cc phng php tnh, nh gi phng trnh hi qui lm tng t nh i vi
phng trnh hi qui bc 1 y (dng 2n).
V d 32: Nghin cu qu trnh iu ch ankylsunphonat s cp trong ni hp c my khuy.
Dung dch nc natri hidrosunfit nng 36 - 38% v cc Olephin - crckinh phn on 240
- 3200C trong cng nghip l nhng ho cht c bn. NaNO3 v oxy khng kh c s dng
nh l cht kch thch cc gc t do.
Cc nhn t nh hng n phn ng c chn lm cc bin s c lp: 1/ thi gian
phn ng, x1 gi; 2/ nhit phn ng, x2 0C; 3/ t l phn t gam ca natri hidrosunfit v
olefin, x3; 4/ t l khi lng n-propanol v olefin, x 4; 5/ t l th tch n-propanol v olefin, x 5;
v/v.
Hm mc tiu y l hiu sut ankylsuphonat tnh theo phn trm so vi l thuyt.
Bng 7.6. iu kin tin hnh thc nghim v Ma trn thc nghim bc mt rt gn 25-2.
Tn
x1
x2
x3
x4
x5
Mc gc
2.0
100
1.5
0.2
2.0
Khong thay i
1.0
10
0.5
0.1
1.0
Thnghim
1
Ma trn m ho
Hm mc tiu y (%)
x0
x1
x2
x3
x4
x5
+1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
14.5
+1
+1
+1
-1
-1
-1
18.6
+1
-1
-1
+1
+1
-1
13.8
+1
+1
-1
+1
-1
+1
51.0
+1
-1
+1
+1
-1
+1
23.2
+1
+1
-1
-1
+1
+1
41.0
+1
-1
+1
-1
+1
+1
38.0
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
-1
17.6
2
0
Gi thit: S = 2.814 theo ba th nghim cng mt iu kin ti tm

M hnh ho s dng ma trn thc nghim rt gn 2 5-2 (bng 7.6). Ma trn thc
nghim ny c c im:
- S ma trn ct trng vi 5 nhn t
- Ma trn ct gc trng vi ma trn (5-2 = 3) nhn t chun
- H thc pht sinh c dng:
x4 = x1x2x3;
x5 = -x1x2.
Cc bc gii
Phng php tnh v nh gi phng trnh hi qui tng t nh i vi phng trnh
hi qui bc 1 y .
Gi phng trnh hi qui c dng:
y = b0 + b1x1 + b2x2 + b3x3 + b4x4 + b5x5
Bc 1. Xc nh cc h s hi qui bi
-
Xc nh cc h s bi
N
p dng cng thc 7.12,
bi
x
u 1
iu
yu
(t s l php ton tnh tng ca cc gi tr
N
khi gn du ca ct xi cho ct y tng ng theo hng), ta c:
8
b0
x
u 1
0u
y 0u
8
27.2125
8
y1u
1 14.5 1 18.6 1 13.8 1 51 1 23.2 1 41 1 38 1 17.6

8
(1) 14.5 118.6 ... 117.6

4.8375
8
8
Tng t, xc nh c b2 = - 2.8625; b3 = - 0.8125;
b4 = 0.3875; b5 = 11.0875;
b1
u 1
1u
Tnh c ngha ca cc h s hi qui c kim nh theo tiu chun t:

ti tnh
bi
S bi
66
Trong S b2 i
sau:
-
S
S 02
2
hay S b i 0 . Gi thit S 0 = 2.814. Do vy ta tin hnh cc bc
N
N
Xc nh Sbi. p dng cng thc 7.15 ta c:

S 02
2.814
0.593
N
8
Sb i
Xc nh ti tnh , p dng cng thc 7.14 ta c:

ti
t0
b0
S bi
bi
S bi
27.2125
45.88 ;
0.593
t1
b1
S bi
4.8375
= 8.16
0.593
Tng t,
t2 = 4.83;
t3 = 1.37;
t4 = 0.65; t5 = 18.7;
- Xc nh t tra bng
Vi P = 95%, f = m 1 = 3 1 = 2
Tra bng 2 chiu trong ph lc A2 ta c: t0.95 (2) = 4.3
Nh vy, t3 < tp(f) v t4<tp(f), do cc h s b3 v b4 b loi ra khi phng trnh hi qui.
Phng trnh vi cc h s hi qui cn li c dng:
= 27.2125 + 4.8375x1 2.8625x2 + 11.0875x5
y
(*)
Bc 3. nh gi tnh ph hp ca phng trnh hi qui thu c
Stt
x0
x1
x2
x5
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-1
+1
-1
+1
-1
+1
-1
+1
-1
+1
-1
-1
+1
-1
+1
+1
-1
-1
-1
+1
+1
+1
+1
-1
14.5
18.6
13.8
51.0
23.2
41.0
38.0
17.6
14.6
17.65
14.6
45.55
31.05
45.55
31.05
17.65
(yu - y u )2
0.01
0.9025
0.64
29.7025
61.6225
20.7025
48.3025
0.0025
thun tin cho vic tnh ton, ta lp bng ma trn cha cc ct y u v (yu - y u )2. Trong
:
u : kt qu thc nghim th u tnh theo phng trnh hi qui sau khi loi b cc
y
h s khng c ngha (phng trnh *).

yu: kt qu thc nghim th u
- Xc nh Sphuhop theo phng trnh 7.21 ta c:
N
(y
y u ) 2
161.885
40.47125
N L
84
L: s h s c ngha
- Xc nh Ftnh theo phng trnh 7.20 ta c:
2
S phuhop
u 1
Ftnh
2
S phuhop
2
0
40.47125
14.38
2.814
- Xc nh Ftra bng
P = 95%, = 0.05; f1 = N L = 8 4 = 4; f2 = m 1 = 3 1 = 2.
Tra ph lc A4, F0.95(4,2) = 19.25
- Kim nh
Do Ftnh = 14.38 < 19.25 = Ftra bng, do phng trnh hi qui tm c m t ng
thc nghim.
= 27.2125 + 4.8375x1 2.8625x2 + 11.0875x5
y
(*)
BI TP CHNG 7
Bi 1. Kho st iu kin ti u phn hy KMnO4 ph thuc vo 2 yu t: nhit x1 (oC)
v lng cht xc tc x2 (mg/mL). Ma trn thc nghim c cho bng sau:
STT
x1
x2
x1x2
Hiu sut (%)
95
89
80
72
85
86
86.5
a. Tm phng trnh hi qui m t thc nghim trn vi P = 99%
b. nh gi tnh ph hp ca phng trnh thu c.

Bi 2. Tin hnh phn ng phn hy KClO 3. Kho st hiu sut phn hy KClO 3 da theo m
hnh ha thc nhim bc 1 rt gn 24-1 vi h thc pht sinh x4 = x1x2x3. Cc yu t nh hng
ti hiu sut phn hy nh sau: Z1 - thi gian phn ng (giy); Z2 - Khi lng ban u ca
KClO3(gam); Z3 - Khi lng xc tc MnO2 (gam); Z4 - Nhit (0C). M hnh ha s Tin
hnh th nghim thu c kt qu sau:
STT
Z1
Z2
Z3
Z4
60
16
0.8
80
44
100
16
0.8
120
70
60
24
0.8
120
39
100
24
0.8
80
98
60
16
1.6
120
11
100
16
1.6
80
65
60
24
1.6
80
51
100
24
1.6
120
77
80
20
1.2
100
56
10
80
20
1.2
100
58
68
11
80
20
1.2
100
57
a. Tm phng trnh hi qui m t thc nghim trn vi P = 95%
b. nh gi tnh ph hp ca phng trnh thu c.

Bi 3. Kim tra qu trnh tch thu ngn t cc hp cht c tnh kim. Hm lng thu ngn
sau khi c chit ra c th c o bng phng php ph hp th nguyn t vi chnh
xc 1.10-6 %. Cc nhn t nh hng n hm lng thu ngn trong qu trnh chit: x 1: tc
quay (pht-1); x2: nhit ca dung dch (oC) ; x3: thi gian lu ca dung dch (pht).
Tin hnh th nghim theo ma trn thc nghim nh sau :
Nhn t
X1
X2
X3
Mc gc
2500
100
45
Khong bin thin
1500
30
15
STT
x0
x1
x2
x3
y1 (*10-4)
y2 (*10-4)
y3 (*10-4)
6.64
6.26
6.17
3.74
3.34
3.65
3.01
2.59
2.8
2.90
2.50
2.50
3.42
3.02
3.52
3.07
2.65
2.83
1.34
1.05
1.27
1.09
0.81
0.99
a/ Tm phng trnh hi qui m t thc nghim trn vi P = 95%

b/ nh gi tnh ph hp ca phng trnh thu c
CHNG 8
M HNH HO THC NGHIM A NHN T BC HAI Y HAY RT GN
M hnh ho thc nghim bc 1 ch gm cc s hng bc 1 cho nn ph hp thp.
Mun nng cao ph hp phi c cc s hng bc 2. Khi tin hnh m hnh ho thc
nghim bc 2.
C nhiu gii php tm phng trnh hi qui bc 2, ph bin nht l hai phng php:
1/ Dng ma trn tm trc giao;
2/ Dng ma trn tm xoay.
Trong phng trnh hi qui bc 2 c bao nhiu s hng th t nht phi c by nhiu
phng trnh (by nhiu thc nghim) tm c cc h s hi qui tng ng cho mi s
hng.
10.1. M hnh ho thc nghim bc 2 tm trc giao
Vi thc nghim c 3 nhn t nh hng ln kt qu thc nghim. Khi tin hnh m
hnh ho thc nghim bc 1 y th v mt hnh hc m hnh l mt hnh lp phng 8
nh, mi nh ng vi 1 thc nghim v tm c mt h s bi tng ng. tm c cc
s hng bc 2 ta phi lm thm cc thc nghim tm (mc gc) v nhng thc nghim
im sao (*) l nhng im nm trn trc to ca nhn t tng ng.
S thc nghim ca tm m hnh ho thc nghim bc 2 tm trc giao, c tnh
theo cng thc sau:
N = 2n-q + 2n + N0
8.1
Trong :
-2n-q: s thc nghim ma trn gc
-2n: s thc nghim im sao.
-N0: s thc nghim im tm, thng ly N0 = 1.
Hnh 8.1. Cc im sao va im tm

Cc bc tin hnh qui hoch ho thc nghim bc 2 tm trc giao:
Bc1. Chn mc thc nghim:
Chn cc mc thc nghim theo vng kho st, tnh cc mc theo cng thc tng qut sau:
70
xi 1;
xithuc xigoc
8.2
Bc2. Lp ma trn thc nghim m ho ca m hnh thc nghim bc 2 tm trc giao:

ma trn vn m bo tnh cht trc giao (c bit l cc ma trn ct ca cc s
hng bc 2) phi a thm tham s :
xi'2 = xi2 -
t:
8.3
th iu kin trc giao l:

N
(x
u 1
Trong :
2
iu
).( x 2ju ) 0
8.4
2 nq 2 d 2
2 nq 2 n N 0
8.5
8.6
N 2 n q 2 2 n q 1
V n, q l s cho trc nn c th tnh sn d v , mt s gi tr tnh sn ghi trong bng sau:

Bng 8.1. Cc gi tr d v tnh trc
M hnh
22
1.000
2/3=0.6667
15
1.2154
8 /15=0.7303
24
25
1.4142
4/5=0.8000
25-1
27
1.5467
(4 3 )/9=0.7698
43
1.7244
(4 10 )/15=0.8433
Trong trng hp trn n = 3, tra bng ta c d = 1.215 v = 0.7303.

Th d: Ma trn thc nghim m ho bc 2 tm trc gio y ca 3 nhn t, c
dng sau:
Bng 8.2. Ma trn m hnh ho thc nghim y bc 2 tm trc giao 3 nhn t
N
x0
x1
x2
x3
x1x2
x1x3
x2x3
x1'2
x2'2
x3'2
x1 -
x2 -
x3 -
y1
x12 -
x22 -
x32 -
y2
x12 -
x22 -
x32 -
y3
x12-
x22 -
x32 -
y4
x12 -
x22 -
x32 -
y5
x12 -
x22 -
x32 -
y6
x12 -
x22 -
x32 -
y7
x12 -
x22 -
x32 -
y8
+d
(+d)2-
y9
10
-d
(-d)2-
y10
11
+d
(+d)2-
y11
12
-d
(-d)2-
y12
13
+d
(+d)2-
y13
14
-d
(-d)2-
y14
15
y15
Phng trnh hi qui bc 2, n nhn t c dng tng qut nh sau:

y b0 x 0 b1 x1 b2 x 2 b3 x3 b12 x1 x 2 b13 x1 x3 b23 x1 x3 ...
b11 ( x12 ) b22 ( x 22 ) b33 ( x32 ) ....
8.7
Bc 3. Tnh h s hi qui ca phng trnh hi qui bc 2 tm trc giao:

N
bi
xiu . y u
u 1
N
x
u 1
bij
2
iu
x
u 1
N
(x
bii
(x
u 1
N
2
iu
(x
u 1
.x ju yu
iu
u 1
iu
8.8
.x ju )
). y u
8.9
2
iu
Bc 4. nh gi tnh c ngha ca h s hi qui:

Trong m hnh ho thc nghim bc 2 ngi ta khng lm th nghim lp li ton b
thc nghim, do s thc nghim qu ln. Ngi ta lm lp li ch mt thc nghim, thc
nghim thng l thc nghim tm ri xc nh gi tr trung bnh ca n. Tnh phng
sai ca th nghim lp li tm v coi nh l sai s chung ca cc th nghim. Ngi ta
cng dng chun t nh gi tnh c ngha ca cc h s hi qui:
ti tinh > ti bng (P,f)
8.10
trong :
f = N0 - 1
(N0: s th nghim lp tm)
ti tnh =
Vi:
Sb i
bi
S bi
tij tnh =
S 02
2
S
2 ; b ij
( xiu )
S 02
S bij
S 02
2
Sb i
2 ;
i
( xiu x ju )
bii
tii tnh = S
y
k 1
0
k
8.11
bij
S 02
( xiu2 ) 2
1 N0 0
( yk y 0 ) 2
N 0 1 k 1
N0
y0
bij
(N0: s th nghim lp li tm)
8.12
8.13
8.14
N0
Nu ttnh > tbng th h s hi qui mi ln hn sai s th nghim tc l h s c ngha.

Bc 5. nh gi tnh ph hp ca m hnh theo phng trnh hi qui bc 2 tm trc giao:
Ftnh
2
S phuhop
2
S phuhop
S 02
1 N
( yu y u ) 2
N L u 1
8.15
8.16
72
Trong : y u : kt qu thc nghim th u tnh theo phng trnh hi qui sau khi
loi b nhng h s khng c ngha.
L: s s hng cn li sau khi nh gi tnh c ngha ca cc h s hi qui.
nh gi tnh ph hp ca m hnh, so snh Ftnh vi Fbng(p,f1,f2)
f1 = N L;
f2 = N0 - 1 (N0 l s thc nghim lp tm)
Nu Ftnh < Fbng suy ra m hnh m t ng thc nghim.
V d 33. Xc nh iu kin t mc phn hu ti u borat bng hn hp axit sunfuric v
axit photphoric. Chn cc nhn t nh hng n mc phn hu y bao gm: 1/ z 1 - nhit
phn ng, 0C; 2/ z2 - thi gian phn ng, pht; 3/ z3 - axit photphoric chun, %; 4/ z4 - nng
axit photphoric % P2O5 (d theo h s hp thc).
Bng 8.3. iu kin tin hanh thc nghim
Nhn t
Mc gc
z0j
Khong thay i
Nhn t
Mc gc
z0j
Khong thay i
z1
55
25
z3
80
20
z2
37.5
22.5
z4
32.8
18.8
zj
zj
Tin hnh th nghim theo m hnh ha thc nghim bc 2 tm trc giao. Kt qu th

nghim thu c bng 8.4.
S th nghim trong ma trn thc nghim i vi n = 4 l 25.
Gi tr s hng sao = 0.8; d = 1.4142 (xem bng 8.1).
Php chuyn t cc bin s thc z sang bin m ho khng th nguyn x c cho bi
cng thc 8.2.
Phng sai lp li c xc nh theo 4 th nghim b sung im tm: y 10 = 61.8%;
y20 = 59.3%; y30 = 58.7%; y40 = 69%.
Hng dn gii
Phng trnh hi quy bc hai tm trc giao, bn nhn t c dng:
y = b0x0 + b1x1 + b2x2 + b3x3 + b4x4 + b12x1x2 + b13x1x3 + b14x1x4 + b23x2x3 + b24x2x4
b34x3x4 + b11(x12 0.8) +b22(x22 0.8) + b33(x32 0.8) + b44(x42 0.8)
Bc 1. Tnh h s hi qui ca phng trnh hi qui
- Xc nh h s bi, s dng cng thc 8.8
N
b0
x
u 1
N
x
u 1
b1
x
u 1
N
. yu
1u
x
u 1
2
1u
0u
. yu
2
0u
86.9 40 ... 45.6 52.3

61.528
25
86.9 40 ... 68.6 51.8 0 1.414 95.4 1414 41.7

17.397
12 (1) 2 ... 12 (1) 2 0 2 (1,414) 2 1,414 2
Tng t, tnh c b2 = 6.39;

b3 = 4.706;
- Xc nh h s bij, s dng cng thc 8.8
b4 = -4.394

25
b12
x
u 1
25
1u
(x
u 1
1u
x 2u yu
.x 2 u ) 2
86.9 40 66 ... 68.6 51.8

34.6
2.1625
2
2
2
2
2
16
1 1 (1) (1) ... (1) (1)
2
Tng t, tnh c:
b13 = -0.0875;
b14 = 1.1875;
b23 = 0.5625;
b24 = -0.7875;
b34 = 1.9125.
74
STT
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
x0
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
x1
+1
-1
+1
-1
+1
-1
+1
-1
+1
-1
+1
-1
+1
-1
+1
-1
0
+1.414
-1.414
0
0
0
0
0
0
x2
+1
-1
-1
+1
-1
+1
+1
-1
-1
+1
+1
-1
+1
-1
-1
+1
0
0
0
+1.414
-1.414
0
0
0
0
Bng 8.4. Ma trn thc nghim bc hai tm trc giao 4 nhn t.

X3
x4
x1'
x2'
x3'
x4'
x1x2
x1x3
+1
+1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
+1
+1
+1
+1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
+1
-1
-1
+1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-1
-1
-1
+1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-1
+1
+1
-1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-1
+1
+1
-1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-1
-1
-1
-1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
+1
-1
-1
-1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
+1
+1
+1
+1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-1
+1
+1
+1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-1
-1
-1
+1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
+1
-1
-1
+1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
+1
+1
+1
-1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
+1
+1
+1
-1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
+1
-1
-1
-1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-1
-1
-1
-1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-1
+1
0
0
-0.8
-0.8
-0.8
-0.8
0
0
0
0
1.2
-0.8
-0.8
-0.8
0
0
0
0
1.2
-0.8
-0.8
-0.8
0
0
0
0
-0.8
1.2
-0.8
-0.8
0
0
0
0
-0.8
1.2
-0.8
-0.8
0
0
+1.414
0
-0.8
-0.8
1.2
-0.8
0
0
-1.414
0
-0.8
-0.8
1.2
-0.8
0
0
0
+1.414
-0.8
-0.8
-0.8
1.2
0
0
0
-1.414
-0.8
-0.8
-0.8
1.2
0
0
x1x4
+1
-1
+1
-1
-1
+1
-1
+1
+1
-1
+1
-1
-1
+1
-1
+1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
x2x3
+1
-1
+1
-1
-1
+1
-1
+1
-1
+1
-1
+1
+1
-1
+1
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
x2x4
+1
-1
-1
+1
+1
-1
-1
+1
-1
+1
+1
-1
-1
+1
+1
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
x3x4
+1
+1
-1
-1
-1
-1
+1
+1
+1
+1
-1
-1
-1
-1
+1
+1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
y.
86.9
40.0
66.0
34.4
76.8
55.7
91.0
47.6
74.1
52.0
74.5
29.6
94.8
49.6
68.6
51.8
61.8
95.4
41.7
70.0
42.4
77.6
58.0
45.6
52.3
- Xc nh h s bii, s dng cng thc 8.9

N
(x
b11
u 1
N
2
1u
(x
u 1
). y u
2
1u
25
(x
2
1u
u 1
N
0.8). y u
(x
2
1u
u 1
0.8) 2
0.2 86.9 ... 0.8 61,8 1.2 95.4 1.2 41.7 0.8 70... 0.8 52.3
0.2 2 ... (0.8) 2 1.2 2 1.2 2 ( 0.8) 2 ... (0.8) 2
4.63
Tng t: b22 = - 1.545 ;

b33 = 4.255;
4
- p dng cng thc 8.14, ta c:
yo
y
k 1
0
k
b44 = -5.17
61.8 59.3 58.7 69

62.2
4
- p dng cng thc 8.13, ta c:

S 02
1 N0 0
( y k y0 ) 2
N 0 1 k 1
1
(61.8 62.2) 2 (59.3 62.2) 2 (58.7 62.2) 2 (69 62.2) 2 22.35
4 1
- T phng trnh 8.12, ta tnh c:

Sb0
S b1 S b2 S b3 S bi
S b12 Sb 23 Sb13 S b ij
Sb11 Sb22 Sb33 Sbii
22.35
0.946
25
S 02
( xiu ) 2
22.35
1.057
20
S 02
22.35
1.182
2
(
x
.
x
)
16
iu ju
S 02
( xiu2 ) 2
22.35
1.67
8
- Tnh c ngha ca cc h s hi quy c kim nh theo chun Student:

p dng cng thc 8.11, ti tnh =
bi
S bi
, ta c:
t0 =
61.528
65 ;
0.946
t1 =
17.397
16.46 ; t2 = 6.05; t3 = 4.45; t4 = 4.2
1.057
t12 =
2.1625
1.83 ; t13 = 0.074; t14 = 1 ; t23 = 0.476; t24 = 0.67; t34 = 1.6
1.182
t11 =
4.63
2.77 ; t22 = 0.78; t33= 2.55; t44 = 3.1
1.67
Tra bng tp(f) = t0.95(3) = 3.18.

Do cc h s b12, b13, b14, b23, b24, b34, b11, b22, b33, b44 tng ng b loi ra khi
phng trnh hi quy.
Ta nhn c phng trnh hi qui c dng:

= 61.528 + 17.397x1 + 6.39x2 + 4.706x3 4.394x4
y
Bc 3. nh gi tnh c ngha ca phng trnh hi qui
x0
x1
x2
x3
x4
( yu y u ) 2
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
86.9
85.63
1.62
+1
-1
-1
+1
+1
40.0
38.05
3.79
+1
+1
-1
-1
+1
66.0
63.435
6.579
+1
-1
+1
-1
+1
34.4
41.42
49.294
+1
+1
-1
+1
-1
76.8
81.635
23.38
+1
-1
+1
+1
-1
55.7
59.62
15.37
+1
+1
+1
-1
-1
91.0
85.00
35.96
+1
-1
-1
-1
-1
47.6
37.43
103.45
+1
+1
-1
+1
+1
74.1
72.85
1.57
+1
-1
+1
+1
+1
52.0
50.83
1.36
+1
+1
+1
-1
+1
74.5
76.215
2.94
+1
-1
-1
-1
+1
29.6
28.64
0.919
+1
+1
+1
+1
-1
94.8
94.415
0.148
+1
-1
-1
+1
-1
49.6
46.84
7.6
+1
+1
-1
-1
-1
68.6
72.22
13.126
+1
-1
+1
-1
-1
51.8
50.21
2.53
+1
61.8
61.53
0.074
+1
+1.414
95.4
86.13
85.98
+1
-1.414
41.7
36.93
22.76
+1
+1.414
70.0
70.56
0.32
+1
-1.414
42.4
52.49
101.86
+1
+1.414
77.6
68.182
88.69
+1
-1.414
58.0
54.87
9.77
+1
+1.414
45.6
55.315
94.38
+1
-1.414
52.3
67.74
238.43
2
- Theo cng thc 8.16: S phuhop
1
1
( yu y u ) 2
911.9 45.595
N L u 1
25 5
Ftinh
2
S phuhop
2
0
45.495
2.026
22.35
Vi tin cy 95%, tra bng F0,05(f1,f2) = F0,05(20,3) = 8.66.

Trong f1 = N L = 25 5 = 20; f2 = N0 1 = 4 1 = 3.
Do : Ftnh < Fbng nn phng trnh hi qui tm c l ph hp vi thc nghim.
Phng trnh hi qui c dng: y = 61.528 + 17.397x1 + 6.39x2 + 4.706x3 4.394x4
Cc iu kin ng vi y = 100% c xc nh theo phng trnh hi qui va nu
bng phng php Gauss - Zayden: z 1= 900C, z2 = 50 pht, z3 = 90%, z4 = 32.5. Cc th
nghim kim tra c thc hin trong cc iu kin ti u. Mc phn hu ca Borat l 98.5%
khi s dng axit photphoric nng, nng 30.3% P 205 v 98.9% nu s dng axit chit nng
29.6% P205.
10.2. M hnh ho thc nghim bc 2 tm xoay
M hnh ho thc nghim bc 2 tm xoay, c tin hnh trn c s xy dng ma trn
qui hoch ho thc nghim bc 2 tm xoay, cc ma trn ct bc cao trong ma trn thc
nghim c tnh cht nh sau:
N
- iu kin chun ha:
u 1
N
- iu kin trc giao:
N .2
2
iu
2
iu
u 1
vi i = 1
8.17
x 2ju 3 N .4
8.18
4
n
2 n 2
vi iu kin:
suy ra
8.19
n.( N o N o )
n
( 2 1 )
o >
n2
(n 2).N
8.20
Trong : -n = s nhn t kho st.

-N = s thc nghim ca ma trn bc 2 tm xoay = Ngc + N * + N0
-N* = s thc nghim im sao
-N0 = s thc nghim tm, s thc nghim tm: N0 > 1
- N o = s thc nghim trn mt mc tiu= Ngc + N*
Khong cch t tm n im sao c tnh theo cng thc:
d = 2 (n-q)/4
8.21
T cc iu kin trn ta c bng cc gi tr tnh trc:
Bng 8.5. Cc gi tr d, im tm tnh trc khi bit loi m hnh ho
N
2n-q
Ngc
N*
N0
22
1.414
1.682
24
16
2.000
32
10
10
2.378
5-1
16
10
2.000
2
2
Phng trnh hi qui bc 2 tm xoay c dng tng qut nh sau:

y b0 x0 bi xi bij xi x j bii xi2
8.22
V cc h s hi qui c tnh theo cc cng thc sau y:

N
b0 C1 yu C2 xiu2 yu
u 1
bi C3 xiu yu ;
bij 2C4 xiu xiu yu
u 1
8.24
u 1
bii C 4 xiu2 yu C5 xiu2 yu C 2 y u

u 1
8.23
i 1 u 1
i 1 u 1
u 1
8.25
Bng 8.6. Cc h s Ci c tnh trc cho trong bng sau:

N
C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
C6
0.2000
0.1000
0.1250
0.1250
0.0188
0.1438
0.1667
0.0569
0.0731
0.0625
0.0069
0.0695
0.1428
0.0357
0.0417
0.0312
0.0037
0.0350
nh gi tnh c ngha ca cc h s hi qui tm c theo cc bt ng thc v cng

thc sau:
ttnh > tbng ( P,f0=N0 - 1)
8.26
trong
b*
ttnh = S
b
N0
S 02
8.27
(y
k 1
0
k
y 0 )2
8.28
N0 1
Cc phng sai ca cc h s hi qui cng c th c tnh theo cc h s C i tnh

trc cho bng trn nh sau:
S b20 C1S 02 ;
S b2i C3 S 02 ;
S b2ij 2.C4 .S 02 ;
Sb2ii C6 S 02
8.29
nh gi tnh ph hp ca m hnh tm c thng qua phng trnh hi qui bc 2

tm xoay theo chun F :
Ftnh =
Trong :
2
S phuhop
2
S phuhop
8.30
S 02
2
yu y u 2 y k0 y 0
N
N0
u 1
k 1
8.31
fph
f0 = N0 1: bc t do ca thc nghim lp tm,

fsk = N L: bc t do ca s sai khc gia l thuyt v thc nghim.
L: s h s c ngha trong phng trnh hi qui kho st tnh ph hp.
f ph f sk f 0 [ N L ] ( N 0 1) : bc t do ca phng sai ph hp.
Nu Ftnh < Fbng (P,fph,f0) th cho php kt lun, m hnh tm c hon ton m t ng
vi thc nghim kho st.
V d 34: Qu trnh kt dnh ca cc cht nn da trn s chit thu ngn t dung dch mui
axit bng nhm kim loi. Nghin cu ng hc ca phn ng ho hc ny nh hng bi cc
yu t: nhit ca dung dch, 0C (x1); tc chy ca dung dch trong bnh phn ng, mL/L
(x2); khi lng ca nhm, g (x3). Kt qu ca qu trnh c xc nh bng nng ca thu
ngn trong dung dch sau khi tinh ch. Mi nhn t kho st 2 mc.
v d ny ta s lp phng trnh biu din s ph thuc ca nng thu ngn thu
c vo cc yu t trn vi phng n thc nghim bc hai tm xoay.
Ta s lm 8 th nghim gc, 6 th nghim im sao v 6 th nghim tm. Kt qu
thu c nh sau:
Bng 8.7. iu kin tin hnh th nghim

Cc yu t
Cc mc
Khong bin thin
mc trn (+)
mc c s (0)
mc di (-1)
x1
90
80
70
10
x2
1050
750
450
300
x3
14.66
12.66
10.66
Bng 8.8. Ma trn bc hai tm xoay v kt qu th nghim

STT
xo
x1
x2
x3
0.4271
0.2761
0.7045
0.3855
0.1034
0.0956
0.294
0.108
-1.682
0.3464
10
1.682
0.0783
11
-1.682
0.0714
12
1.682
0.3321
13
-1.682
0.7048
14
1.682
0.2094
15
0.1224
16
0.1382
17
0.1204
18
0.0943
19
0.0698
20
0.1135
M hnh ton hc c chn l:

y b0 b1 x1 b2 x 2 b3 x3 b12 x1 x 2 b13 x 1 x3 b23 x 2 x3 b11 x12 b22 x 22 b33 x32
Hng dn gii
M hnh thc nghim bc hai tm xoay ba nhn t n=3, tra bng 8.6 ta c:
N
3
C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
C6
0.1667 0.0569 0.0731 0.0625 0.0069 0.0695
Bc 1. Xc nh cc h s hi quy
- xc nh cc h s ca phng trnh hi qui, trc tin xc nh cc tng:

N
y
u 1
4.795
xiu yu
xiu x ju yu
u 1
u 1
x1u x2u yu -0.3462
u 1
x2u yu 1.0283
x2u x3u yu -0.1838
2
3u
y u 4.9806
u 1
u 1
y u 3.53575
u 1
x3u yu -2.0255
2
2u
u 1
y u 3.5957
x1u x3u yu 0.2762
u 1
2
1u
u 1
u 1
yu
u 1
x1u yu 1.1147
2
iu
u 1
- Xc nh h s b0 theo cng thc 8.23, ta c:

N
b0 C1 y u C 2 xiu2 y u
u 1
i 1 u 1
0.1667 4.795 0.0569 (3.5957 3.53575 4.9806) 0.11

N
- Xc nh h s b1, b2, b3 theo cng thc 8.24: bi C3 xiu yu

u 1
b1 = C3 xiu yu 0.0731 ( 1.1147 ) = 0.0815;

u 1
Tng t: b2 = 0.0752; b3 = 0.148;

N
- Xc nh h s bij theo cng thc 8.24: bij 2C 4 xiu x ju yu

u 1
b12 = bij 2C 4 xiu x ju yu 2 0.0625 (0.3462) = 0.043275;

u 1
Tng t ta tnh c: b23 = 0.022975; b13 = 0.034525;

N
2
2
- Xc nh h s b11 theo cng thc 8.25: bii C 4 xiu yu C5 xiu yu C 2 yu
u 1
i 1 u 1
u 1
b11 0.0625 3.5957 0.0069(3.5957 3.53575 4.9806) 0.0569 4.795 0.0355
Ta tnh c b11 = 0.0355 ; b22 = 0.0317; b33 = 0.122;

- Phng sai tnh lp li tnh theo cc thc nghim tm, p dng cng thc 8.28 ta c:
S 02
1 N0 0
1 5 0
0 2
(
y
y
)
( y k y 0 ) 2 0.000586
k
N 0 1 k 1
5 1 k 1
- Cc phng sai ca cc h s hi qui cng c th c tnh theo cc h s Ci tnh trc cho

bng trn, theo cc cng thc 8.29 ta tnh c:
Sb0 C1S 02 9.884 10 3 ;
S bij
2C4 S 02 8.56 10 3 ;
b*
S bi C3 S 02 6.545 10 3 ;
S bii C6 S 02 6.38 10 3 ;
- Theo cng thc 8.27: ttnh = S , ta tnh c: to = 11.13; t1 = 12.45; t2 = 11.5;

b
t12 = 5.06;
t13 = 4.03;
t23 = 2.68 ;
t11 = 5.56;
t22 = 4.97 ;
t33 = 19.12
*
t3 = 22.6;
Tra bng ph lcA2: tb(0.95;5) = 2.57. Nh vy tt c cc gi tr tt u ln hn tb do

tt c cc h s b u c ngha. Phng trnh hi quy c dng:
y 0.11 0.815 x1 0.0752 x 2 0.148 x3 0.043275 x1 x 2 0.034525 x 1 x3
0.022975 x 2 x3 0.0355 x12 0.317 x 22 0.122 x32
Bc 3. nh gi tnh c ngha ca phng trnh hi qui

y
(y- y )2
0.4271
0.4230
1.68110-5
0.2761
0.2773
1.4410-6
0.7045
0.7061
2.5610-6
0.3855
0.3872
2.8910-6
0.1034
0.1033
110-8
0.0956
0.0957
110-8
0.2940
0.2945
2.510-7
0.108
0.1137
3.2510-5
0.3464
0.3485
4.4110-6
0.0783
0.0739
1.9410-5
0.0714
0.0740
6.7610-6
0.3321
0.3272
2.410-5
0.7048
0.7054
3.610-7
0.2094
0.2065
8.4110-6
0.1224
0.1098
1.610-4
0.1382
0.1098
5.310-4
0.1204
0.1098
1.110-4
0.0943
0.1098
2.410-4
0.0698
0.1098
1.610-3
0.1135
0.1098
1.410-5
SS sk ( yu y u ) 2 2.7738 10 3
u 1
N0
SS 0 ( y k0 y 0 ) 2 0.002344
k 1
Theo cng thc 8.31, tnh phng sai ph hp:

2
S phuhop
SS sk SS 0
0.0027738 0.002344
8.596 10 5
N L N0 1
20 10 6 1
- Xc nh Ftnh theo cng thc 8.30:
Ftinh
2
S phuhop
S 02
8.596 10 5
0.1467
0.000586
Vi tin cy 95%, tra bng F0.05(f1;f2) = F0.05(5;5) = 5.05.

Do Ftnh <<Fbng nn phng trnh hi qui tm c l ph hp vi thc nghim.
BI TP CHNG 8
Bi 1. Hiu sut (y) ca qu trnh khu mch nha epoxi bng cht TAS, bn va p ca
vt liu (N/cm2) ph thuc vo cc yu t sau: hm lng TAS (x 1, %) v nhit phn ng
(x2, oC). Kt qu tin hnh th nghim c cho di y:
Nhn t
Mc thp
Mc cao
x1
50
70
x2
110
140
STT
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
x1
-1
1
-1
1
-1.414
1.414
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
x2
-1
-1
1
1
0
0
-1.414
1.414
0
0
0
0
0
Y
79
85.1
91
87.1
90
85.6
77
84.5
83.7
85.1
85.8
83.9
86.3
a/ Xc nh cc h s hi qui trong phng trnh hi qui ph hp

b/ nh gi tnh ph hp ca cc h s hi qui v m hnh hi qui tm c vi P =95%.
Bi 2. Qu trnh kt dnh ca cc cht nn da trn s chit thu ngn t dung dch mui axit
bng nhm kim loi. S nghin cu ng hc ca phn ng ho hc ny ch ra qu trnh ny
b nh hng bi cc yu t: nhit ca dung dch, oC (x1); tc chy ca dung dch trong
bnh phn ng, ml/l (x2); khi lng ca nhm, g (x3). Kt qu ca qu trnh c xc nh
bng nng ca thu ngn trong dung dch sau khi tinh ch (y). Tin hnh quy hoch thc
nghim thu c kt qu thu c nh sau:
Cc mc
Cc yu t
Khong bin thin
mc trn (+)
mc c s (0)
mc di (-1)
x1
90
80
70
10
x2
1050
750
450
300
x3
14.66
12.66
10.66
2
Ma trn bc hai tm xoay v kt qu th nghim:
STT
xo
x1
x2
x3
0.4271
0.2761
0.7045
0.3855
0.1034
0.0956
0.294
0.108
-1.682
0.3464
10
1.682
0.0783
11
-1.682
0.0714
12
1.682
0.3321
13
-1.682
0.7048
14
1.682
0.2094
15
0.1224
16
0.1382
17
0.1204
18
0.0943
19
0.0698
20
0.1135
Xy dng phng trnh hi qui & nh gi tnh ph hp ca m hnh thu c vi P =95%.

Bi 3. Tin hnh qu trnh iu ch mt dc phm (carbo-ethoxyphonylguanadine) trong
iu kin ti u ho. Hiu sut phn ng ph thuc vo: X 1: nng st (g/L); X 2: thi gian
oxi ha (pht); X3: nng axit (%). Tin hnh quy hoch thc nghim thu c kt qu:
Tn
X1
X2
X3
Mc thp
30
15
14
Mc c s
45
37.5
27
Mc cao
60
60
40
STT
X1
X2
X3
47.6
68.6
51.8
91.0
29.1
66
34.4
74.5
-1.2154
41.7
10
+1.2154
95.4
11
-1.2154
42.4
12
+1.2154
70
13
-1.2154
52.3
14
+1.2154
45.6
15
61.8
0
Phng sai lp li c xc nh theo 4 th nghim tm (y 10 =51.5; y 02 = 45.6; y 3 =

54.5; y 04 = 61.8).
Xy dng phng trnh hi quy bc hai tm trc giao v nh gi tnh c ngha ca
m hnh hi quy tm c trong trng hp P = 95% v P = 99%.
CHNG 9
PHNG PHP MNG N HNH

Bi ton nghin cu hn hp l loi bi ton rt ph bin khi cn tm thnh phn ti
u hn hp cho mt tnh cht mong mun.
Mt hn hp gm n cu t lun lun c th biu din di dng thnh phn t l gia
cc cu t v thnh phn t l ny lun tun theo biu thc sau:
n
x
i 1
9.1
Phng trnh hi qui tng qut ca m hnh tm c bng phng php mng n
hnh c dng:
n
i j
y i xi ij xi x j ( xi x j )
i j r
ijr
xi x j xr
9.2
Ma trn ca mng n hnh, lun tun theo tnh cht:

1/ Tng thnh phn ca cc cu t trong hn hp bng 1.
2/ Mi nh trong mng n hnh tng ng vi 1 hn hp c thnh phn xc nh.
Hn hp c thnh phn theo nh tng ng s cho mt tnh cht xc nh. Nu pha
hn hp theo thnh phn ny ri xc nh tnh cht mong mun ca hn hp chnh l lm thc
nghim theo ma trn thc nghim tm m hnh cho th nghim.
Mt trong cc cch biu din thnh phn hn hp l mng n hnh. Th d, hn hp
c n = 3 cu t, lp thnh mng n hnh c th biu din bng cc hnh c N nh sau y:
Hnh 9.1. Ma trn va cch lp phng trnh hi qui cho trng hp n = 3, N= 7

Bng 9.2. Ma trn thc nghim ng vi trng hp n=3, N=7
n
x1
x2
x3
y1
y2
y3
0.5
0.5
y12
0.5
0.5
y13
0.5
0.5
y23
1/3
1/3
y123
1/3
i j
y bi xi bij xi x j
vi :
i j k
ijk
xi x j x k
b i = yi
bij = 4yij - 2yi - 2yj
bijk= 27yijk - 12(yij + yik + yjk) + 3(yi + yj + yk)
9.3
9.4
9.5
9.6
Hnh 9.2. Ma trn va cch lp phng trnh hi qui cho trng hp n = 3, N =15
Bng 9.3. Ma trn thc nghim cho trng hp n=3, N=15
n
x1
x2
x3
y1
y2
y3
0.5
0.5
y12
0.5
0.5
y13
0.5
0.5
y23
0.75
0.25
y1112
0.25
0.75
y1222
0.75
0.25
y1113
10
0.25
0.75
y1333
11
0.75
0.25
y2223
12
0.25
0.75
y2333
13
0.5
0.25
0.25
y1123
14
0.25
0.5
0.25
y1223
15
0.25
0.25
0.5
y1233
i j
i j
y bi xi bij xi x j ij xi x j ( xi x j )
i j k
ijk
xi x j xk
vi: bi = yi
bij = 9/4(yiij + yijj - yi - yj)
9.7
9.8
9.9
ij = 9/4(3yiij - 3yijj - yi - yj)
9.10
bijk = 27yijk - 27/4(yiij + yijj + yiik + yikk + yjjk + yjkk)+9/2(yi + yj + yk)

9.11
nh gi tnh ph hp ca phng trnh hi qui tm c theo chun t tho mn bt
ng thc sau:
ttnh < tbng [P = 0.95, f = N(r-1)]
9.12
Khi :
ttnh =
y u r
9.13
S 02 . 1
yu yu y u
vi
1 r
y u y um
r m 1
r = s th nghim lp li ca th nghim th u; m = th nghim lp th m.
9.14
1
N
S 02
S
u 1
2
u
Vi
i 1
i j
ai2 aij2
Trong :
Vi
2
S phuhop
S u2
r
1
( yum yu ) 2
(r 1) m 1
9.15
ai xi ( 2 xi 1) ; aij 4 xi x j
S 02
S 02
n a
ai2
ij
i r i r
i
ij
n
9.16
9.17
Khi ttnh < tbng , iu chng t s sai khc gia l thuyt v thc nghim l khng
ng tin cy. Nh vy m hnh tm c l ph hp.
V d 35: Kho st tnh cht c l ca sn phm gia cng nha vi Y 1 - tnh bn nhit, v Y2 tnh n hi . Y1 v Y2 ph thuc vo 3 yu t:
z1 - cht ph gia k thut; z2 - cht n; z3 - nha.
Trong : z1 + z2 + z3 = 1. Ch nghin cu 3 nh:
x1 = ( 0.20 ; 0.10 ; 0.70 )
x2 = ( 0.06 ; 0.24 ; 0.70 )
x3 = ( 0.03 ; 0.07 ; 0.90 )
a 3 nh trn v dng chnh tc: x1 + x2 + x3 = 1
Bng 9.4. Ma trn v kt qu thc nghim
Stt
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
nh m ho
Thnh phn tht
x1
x2
x3
z1
z2
z3
1
0
0
0.5
0.5
0
0.333
0. 20
0
1
0
0.5
0
0.5
0.333
0.2
0
0
1
0
0.5
0.5
0.333
0.6
0.2
0.06
0.03
0.13
0.115
0.045
0.097
0.082
0.1
0.24
0.07
0.17
0.085
0.155
0.137
0. 178
0.7
0.7
0. 90
0.7
0. 80
0. 80
0.766
0.74
Y1
Y2
Y
(m ha)
459
380
337
260
360
300
263
273
17500
18200
16000
11400
17200
12900
11400
11400
y1
y2
y3
y12
y13
y23
y123
y12333
Lm th nghim lp, xc nh c:
S01 = 8.4 v S02 = 620
Kho st th nghim th 7 (r = 7) tm c: yu1 = 7.624
v yu2 = 1792
a/ Xy phng trnh hi qui theo cng thc: y bi xi bij xi x j

b/ nh gi tnh ph hp phng trnh hi qui tm c.
Hng dn
a/ Xy dng phng trnh hi qui
tm cc h s hi qui ta s dng cng thc 9.4 tnh b i (bi = yi) v cng thc 9.5 tnh
bij (bij = 4yij - 2yi - 2yj)
- Xy dng phng trnh biu din tnh bn nhit ca sn phm Y1:
b1 = y1 = 459;
b2 = y2 = 380;
b3 = y3 = 337
b12 = 4y12 2y1 2y2 = 4260 2459 2380 = 638;
Tng t tnh c: b13 = 152;
b23 = 234
Vy phng trnh hi qui biu din tnh bn nhit ca sn phm:
Y1 = 459x1 + 380x2 + 337x3 638x1x2 152x1x3 234x2x3

- Xy dng phng trnh biu din tnh n hi ca sn phm Y2
b1 = y1 = 17500;
b2 = y2 = 18200;
b3 = y3 = 16000
b12 = 4y12 2y1 2y2 = 411400 217500 218200 = 25800
Tng t tnh c:
b13 = 1800;
b23 = 16800
Vy phng trinh hi qui biu din tnh n hi ca sn phm:
Y2 = 17500x1 + 18200x2 + 16000x3 25800x1x2 + 1800x1x3 16800x2x3.
b/ nh gi tnh ph hp ca phng trnh hi qui
nh gi tnh ph hp ca phng trnh hi qui trc tin ta i xc nh h s .
- Do kho st th nghim th 7, c nh m ha (0.333;0.333;0.333). Nn x1 = x2 = x3 = 0.333
- Theo cc cng thc 9.16 ta c:
a1 a 2 a 3 [0.333 (2 0.333 1)] ;
a12 a13 a 23 aij 4 xi x j 4 0.333 0.333 0.443556 ;
3
a
i 1
3
a
i j
2
i
3 [0.333 (2 0.333 1)]2 0.037
2
ij
3 0.443556 2 0.59
i 1
i j
2
2
Do : ai aij 0.037 0.59 0.627
- nh gi tnh ph hp ca m hnh:
nh gi tnh ph hp ca m hnh, ta s dng chun t, c tnh theo phng trnh 9.13:
t tinh
y u r
S . 1
2
0
y u r
S0 1
+ Tnh ph hp ca y1 :
t1
7.624
8.4 1 0.627
1.88
tb (0.95, f = 48) = 1.96 > 1.88

Kt lun: M hnh ph hp i vi y1.
+ Tnh ph hp ca y2 :
t2
1792 7
620 1 0.627
tb (0.95, f = 48) = 2.01 6

Kt lun : M hnh khng ph hp i vi y2.
BI TP CHNG 9
Bi 1. Nghin cu s ph thuc ca kh nng phn ng v xp rng ca than cc vo
thnh phn nguyn khi lng. Cu t ca phi liu l than ca 4 nhm cng ngh x 1, x2, x3,
x4. Nhng th nghim tin hnh thit b th nghim c ln. Hng s tc phn ng:
C CO2
1000 0 C
2CO
dng lm c trng ca kh nng phn ng ca than cc (ypu). xp rng ca than cc (yxop)

c xc nh theo t s gia khi lng ring. xp ca than cc c c trng bi t
khi ca n. Ma trn v kt qu th nghim:
N
x1
x2
x3
x4
Kt qu yht
y1
1.48 54.0
y2
0.32 55.2
y3
0.5
y4
0.53 45.3
0.5 0.5 0
y12
0.63 53.1
0.5 0
0.5 0
y13
0.92 48.0
0.5 0
0.5 y14
1.08 49.0
0.5 0.5 0
0.5 0
10 0
yxop
43.3
y23
0.39 46.3
0.5 y24
0.38 47.1
0.5 0.5 y34
0.54 44.0
Kho st th nghim th 8, lp li r = 2 ln tm c sai s s y.pu = 0.175 v sy.xop =1.05;

y xop 0.4 ; y pu 0.22 . Xc nh phng trnh hi qui.
Bi 2. Cn xc nh hot ng (y1) v bn (y2) ca xc tc Pt mang trn cht mang kim
loi khng xp ph thuc vo thnh phn xc tc ti 350 oC. Tng khi lng ca cc thnh
phn c ly bng hng s trong cc th nghim. Trong X 1 l thnh phn ca Pt/Al2O3 l
xc tc reforming; X2 v X3 l phn cn li ca oxit kim loi thuc nhm II v III ca bng h
thng tun hon. Tin hnh th nghim thu c:
N
X1
X2
X3
y1
y2
97.4
62
3.0
73
4.7
47
0.5
0.5
70.0
64
0.5
0.5
66.0
55
0.5
0.5
6.8
72
0.333
0.333
0.333
95.4
67
Lp li th nghim th 7 hai ln, xc nh c phng sai ca php o hot ng ca xc

tc l Sy1 = 3.24, v bn l Sy2 = 2.37. y1 = 0,2; y2 = 28.73. Xc nh phng trnh hi qui
PHN IV
TI U HO THC NGHIM
10.1. Khi nim v phn loi cc phng php ti u ho
C 4 phng php tm iu kin ti u chnh:

- Phng php m iu kin ti u bng cch ln lt kho st tng nhn t nh hng
ln kt qu th nghim trong khi c nh cc nhn t khc (hnh a/).
- Phng php thc nghim theo ng dc nht, ng ca vect grad y(x) (hnh b/).
- Phng php kho st mt mc tiu (hnh c/).
- Phng php thc nghim theo n hnh (hnh d/).
Hnh 10.1. Minh hoa cc phng php ti u ho

10.2. Phng php thc nghim theo ng dc nht
ng dc nht l ng chuyn dch theo vect grad y(x), vect ny biu th s bin
thin nhanh nht ca y(x) v pha cc tr.
Thc cht ca vic thc nghim theo ng dc nht tm iu kin ti u thc
nghim l tm cc khong bin thin mi i*, j* tng ng ca cc nhn t x i, xj... t l vi
nhau theo mt t s xc nh, dch chuyn ng thi cc iu kin th nghim v pha cc
tr.
C th m t qui hoch thc nghim theo ng dc nht bng bng sau y:
Bng 10.1. Ma trn thc nghim theo ng dc nht
Stt
x1
x2
x3
...
xn
Mc gc
01
02
03
...
0n
H s bi
b1
b2
b3
...
bn
Khong bin thin
...
bii
b11
b22
b33
...
bnn
1'
2'
3'
...
n'
bi i
i' = b max
i
j
Lm trn i' thnh i*
1*
2*
3*
...
n*
Thc nghim th 1 theo i'
01+11*
02+12*
03+13*
...
0n+1n*
y6*
01+21*
02+22*
03+23*
...
0n+2n*
y7*
01+31*
02+32*
03+33*
...
0n+3n*
y8*
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
Thc nghim th k theo i'
01+k1*
02+k2*
03+k3*
...
0n+kn*
yk*
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
Thc nghim th m theo i' 01+m1*
02+m2*
03+m3*
...
0n+mn*
ym*
Ghi ch:
- Mc gc 0i l mc dng m hnh ho thc nghim thu c hm mc tiu y(x) ph hp.
- H s bi l h s ca phng trnh hi qui ph hp.
- Khong bin thin l khong bin thin dng m hnh ho thc nghim cho hm
mc tiu ph hp
- Lm trn 1' thnh 1* l php lm trn s hc. (Th d: 0.3 thnh 0.5; 0.8 thnh 1.0)
- 1* ly du ca ca h s bi tng ng.
- 0i + i1* l cng i s, nu 1* < 0 th lm gim mc gc, nu 1* > 0 th lm tng mc
gc.
Gi thit yk* l gi tr thc nghim thu c cc tr, khi iu kin thc nghim
thu c yk* l iu kin ti u thc nghim.
V d 36: Nghin cu s bin tnh ca nhm nguyn cht bng m lp en. Thng s ti u
ha y c chn l s ht nhm trn b mt 1cm2.
Cc nhn t nh hng n thng s ti u ha l:
1/ x1: lng m lp en a vo nhm, tnh bng %; 2/ x2: nhit nung nng, 0C;
3/ x3: thi gian nung nng, pht;
4/ x4: tc lm lnh (),
Trong x1, x2, x3 l nhng yu t nh lng, x4 l yu t nh tnh, c hai gi tr: lm
lnh nhanh (lm lnh bng graphit), lm lnh chm (lm lnh bng gch chu la).
M hnh c chn l m hnh thc nghim bc 1 rt gn l loi 24 1 phng trnh hi
qui thu c c dng:
y = b0 + b1x1 + b2x2 + b3x3 + b4x4
Vi biu thc sinh x4 = x1x2x3. Cc th nghim khng lm lp li.
Bng 10.2. Cc mc ca cc nhn t c cho bng sau
Cc mc
Cc nhn t
Nghim gc
x1
0.4
x2
840
x3
60
x4
-
Khong bin thin

Mc trn (+)
0.15
0.55
Mc di (-)
100
940
60
120
graphit
0.25
740
0
Bng 10.3. Ma trn quy hoch th nghim
Gch chu la
STT
x0
x1
x2
x3
x4
100
81
95
36
130
69
90
64
xc nh phng sai lp phi lm thm 3 th nghim tm phng n. Cc kt qu

nhn c yu0 (u = 1, 2, 3) v cc tnh ton y0 v (yu0 - y 0) c cho bng 10.4 sau :
Bng 10.4. Bng kt qu v cch tnh phng sai lp
STT
1
2
3
yu0
80
82
78
y0
3
u 1
y u0
80
yu0 y0
0
2
-2
(yu0 - y0)2
0
4
4
n0
Phng sai lp li, chnh l sai s thc nghim:
S 02
(y
u 1
0
u
( yu0 y 0 ) 2 8
u 1
y 0 )2
N0 1
8
4
3 1
Cc h s trong m hnh c tnh theo cng thc:

N
b0
yi
iu
yu
bi
N
N
b0 = 83.125; b1 = 20.625; b2 = 11.875; b3 = -5.125;
Kim nh tnh ngha ca cc h s hi qui, s dng chun t
i 1
tj
i 1
bj
Sbj
Sbj
S 02
b4 = -9.375
4
0.707
8
T tnh c: t1 = 29.1; t2 = 16.8; t3 = 7.25; t4 = 13.26; t0 = 117.5

Tra bng tp (f) vi p = 0.95; f = N0 - 1 = 2; tp (f) = 4.30.
Cc tj > tp (f) vi j = (0,1, 2, 3, 4) do cc h s hi quy u c ngha v phng
trnh hi quy c dng:
y = 83.125 + 20.625x1 + 11.875x2 - 5.125x3 - 9.375x4.
T m hnh ton hc ta thy rng mun tng gi tr ca thng s ti u ha cn tng
gi tr ca cc nhn t x1 v x2 v gim gi tr ca cc nhn t x3 v x4.
Kim nh s tng thch ca m hnh vi thc nghim c thc hin theo tiu
chun Fisher.
2
Bng 10.5. Cc s liu dng tnh S phuhop
yi -
(yo -
i)2
y
STT
yi
i
y
100
101.1
-1.1
1.21
81
78.6
2.4
5.76
95
96.1
-1.1
1.21
36
36.1
-0.1
0.01
i
y
130
130.1
-0.1
0.01
69
70.1
-1.1
1.21
90
87.6
2.4
5.76
64
65.1
-1.1
1.21
2
S phuhop
Ftnh
(y
i 1
N L
2
S phuhop
y i ) 2
2
0
(y
i 1
y i ) 2 16.4
16.4
5.47
85
5.47
1.3675
4
Tra bng ph lc A3: F1 - p (f1, f2); p = 0.95; f1 = 3; f2 = 2 c: F1 - p (3, 2) = 19.2

Ftnh << F1 - p (f1, f2), do phng trnh tng thch vi thc nghim.
Ti u ha thc nghim c thc hin bng phng php ng dc nht, bt u t
im khng, l mc c s: x 1 = 0.40; x2 = 840; x3 = 60; x4 lm lnh chm (lm lnh bng
gch chu la).
Bng 10.6. Cc kt qu thc nghim ti u ha
Tn
x1
x2
x3
x4
0.40
840
60
20.625
11.875
-5.125
-9.4
0.15
100
60
1190
-306
0.0252
10
-2.57
06- Bc lm trn
0.03
10
-3
07- Thnghim tng tng
0.43
850
57
Gch chu la
08- Thnghim tng tng
0.46
860
54
''
09- Th nghim th 9
0.49
870
51
"
108
10- Thnghim tng tng
0.52
880
48
"
11- Thnghim tng tng
0.55
890
45
"
12- Th nghim th 10
0.58
900
42
"
196
13- Th nghim th 11
0.61
910
39
"
366
14- Th nghim th 12
0.64
920
36
"
313
01- Mc c s
02- H s bj
03- Khong bin thin
04- bj x j
05- Bc j
Chn cc bc chuyn ng ca nhn t x 2 l 2, 2 = 100C. Cc bc chuyn ng ca

cc nhn t x1 v x3 trong bng c tnh nh sau:
1 2
b1 1
20.625 0.15
10
0.026
b2 2
11.875 100
3 2
b3 3
5.125 60
10
2.59
b2 2
11.875 100
Nh vy, th nghim th 11 khi tin hnh iu kin x 1 = 0.61% molip en; nhit
x2 = 9100C; thi gian nung nng x3 = 39 pht; tc lm lnh chm (x 4: gch chu la) s t
c s ht nhm trn b mt 1cm2 l ln nht.
10.3. Phng php kho st mt mc tiu
Hm mc tiu c biu din bng mt phng trnh hi qui dng a thc:
y
b x
0i n
0 i j n
ij
xi x j
b x
1 i n
2
i
10.1
Phng trnh hi qui bc hai m t mt mt mc tiu trong khng gian n chiu, c li

lm tng ng vi cc gi tr cc tr ca hm mc tiu.
Kho st mt mc tiu, khi tm c cc gi tr cc tr, s tm c cc iu kin thc
nghim ti u nhm ti u ho thc nghim.
tp trung kho st cc min cc tr ca hm mc tiu, ngi ta phi a hm mc
tiu bc 2 v dng chnh tc:
Y - Ys = B11X12 + B22X22 + ... + BnnXn2
10.2
Trong :
-Y = Gi tr ca hm mc tiu.
-Ys = Gi tr ca hm mc tiu gc to mi.
-X1 ... Xn = Cc bin chun, l hm tuyn tnh ca cc nhn t x1,x2 ... xn.
-B11, B22 ... Bnn = H s ca phng trnh hi qui dng chnh tc.
C th chia vic chuyn hm mc tiu v dng chnh tc lm 2 bc:
- Bc 1: tm Ys, bng cch ly o hm ring ca tng nhn t theo hm mc tiu, tm gi tr
cc nhn t xi khi cho cc o hm ring tng ng bng khng. Thay cc gi tr tm c
vo hm mc tiu ph hp ta s tm c Ys.
- Bc 2: Tm cc gi tr Bii nh cc nh thc c trng:
* i vi n = 2:
y = b0 + b1x1 + b2x2+ b12x1x2 + b11x12 + b22x22
10.3
2
2
Y - Ys = B11X1 + B22X2
10.4
Khi : B11 v B22 tm c nh nh thc:
10.5
Tc gii phng trnh bc hai sau:
B2 - ( b11 + b22 ) B + ( b11b22 - 0.25 b122 ) = 0
* i vi n = 3:
y = b0 + b1x1 + b2x2 + b3x3 + b12x1x2 + b23x2x3 + b11x12 + b22x22 + b3x32
Y- Ys = B11X12 + B22X22 + B33X32
Khi ; B11, B22 v B33 tm c nh nh thc:
Tc gii phng trnh bc ba:
10.6
10.7
B3- a1B2 + a2B - a3 = 0
10.9
a1 bii
10.10
i 1
a2
b b
i , j 1
ii
jj
0.25 bij2
i j
10.11
N
i1
i, j1
i j
i1
i j k
a3 bi 0.25 bij 0.25 bi bjk
10.12
Kim tra tnh ng ca php bin i bng biu thc:

n
B
i 1
ii
bii
10.13
i 1
Dng ca mt mc tiu bc 2, c phn loi nh sau:

1. Khi cc Bii, Bjj cng du, ta c mt Paraboloit eliptic. Mt c cc tr. B ii < 0 c cc i
tm. Bii > 0 c cc tiu tm. Gi tr cc tr nm trn bin ca min nghin cu. Tm ca mt
nm gn tm thc nghim.
Hnh 10.2
2. Khi cc Bii v Bjj khc du nhau, ta c mt Paraboloit hyperbolic. Tm ca mt gn tm
thc nghim. im S - Tm ca mt c gi l im yn nga (minimax). Chn trc no
nghin cu l tu bi ton kho st. Cc i nm trn trc c B ii > 0. Cc tiu nm trn trc
c Bjj > 0.
Hnh 10.3
3. Khi mt hoc mt s Bii rt nh, gn bng khng th tm nm xa min thc nghim.
Hnh 10.4
4. C trng hp suy bin, mt mc tiu l nhng ng hoc mt song song.
Hnh 10.5
V d 37: Chuyn phng trnh bc hai sau y v dng chnh tc:
y = 10 - 15x1 - 10x2 + 4x1x2 + 6x12 + 2x22
Tnh:
y
x 15 4 x2 12 x1 0
1
y 10 4 x 4 x 0
1
2
x2
0 do mt mc tiu c tm.
Tm ta x1s vi x2s ca tm s
15 4
10 4 20 5
x1s
32 32 8
12 15
4 10 60 15
x2 s
32 32 8
Thay gi tr ca x1s v x2s vo phng trnh trn ta tnh c Ys:

5
15
5 15
5
Ys 10 15 10
4
6
8
8
8 8
8
15
2
4.0625
Sau khi tnh tin h trc ta , phng trnh trn c dng:

Y 4.0625 4 ~
x~
x 6~
x 2 2~
x2
1 2
xc nh cc h s B11, B22 ta gii h phng trnh c trng sau:
f ( B)
b11 B
1
b12
2
1
b21 b22 B
2
Sau khi thay cc gi tr ca b11, b12, b21 v b22 vo phng trnh c trng ta c:
1
4
2 B 2 8B 8 0
f ( B)
1
4 2 B
2
6 B
Gii phng trnh trn ta nhn c:

B11 = 6.8284;
B22 = 1.1716
C th kim tra s ng n trong tnh ton bng cch so snh:
bjj = Bjj
v phng trnh chnh tc c dng:
Y + 4.0625 = 6.8284X12 + 1.1716X22
Sau khi xc nh c cc h s B jj ta xc nh c dng ca mt p ng theo cch phn
loi cc dng hm mc tiu trnh by phn trn.
10.4. Phng php thc nghim theo n hnh
Trong khng gian nhn t n chiu, n hnh l mt hnh li c n+1 nh, mi nh l
mt t hp n iu kin ng vi n nhn t nh hng ln kt qu thc nghim. Phng php
thc nghim theo n hnh tm iu kin ti u cho th nghim c tin hnh theo cc
bc sau y:
1. Lp n hnh S0.
n hnh S0 - n hnh gc - lp c tu theo v tr tng i trong khng gian nhn
t. Ph bin nht l 2 v tr:
V tr 1/
V tr 2/
1/ t 1 trong cc nh trng vi gc h trc to , ( v tr 1/)
2/ t tm ca n hnh trng vi gc trc to ( v tr 2/)
p
q
1
( n 1 n 1)
n. 2
1
n 2
ri
Ri
( n 1 1)
1
2i (i 1)
10.14
i
2i (i 1)
10.15
Trong n l s nhn t, i l vect nhn t th i.

Bng 10.7. Bng ma trn tng ng theo v tr 1
nh
1
2
3
...
1
2
0
P
0
q
0
Q
...
...
0
Q
3
.
Q
...
Q
P
...
...
Q
...
.
n+1
...
Q
...
,,,
...
P
P
Q
0.9659
0.2588
Bng 10.8. Bng gi tr p, q tng ng vi s nhn t n

3
4
5
6
7
0.9428
0.2357
0.9256
0.2185
0.9124
0.2050
0.9011
0.1940
0.8918
0.1847
8
0.8839
0.1768
Bng 10.9. Bng ma trn tng ng theo v tr 2

1
2
3
...
nh
...
1
2
- r1
R1
- r2
- r2
- r3
- r3
...
...
- rn
- rn
3
.
...
...
R2
- r3
R3
...
...
- rn
...
.
n +1
...
0
...
,,,
...
- Rn
Bng 10.10. Bng gi tr ri v Ri tng ng vi s nhn t n

2
3
4
5
6
...
ri
0.5
...
0.289
0.158
0.129
0.109
Rn
-0.5
-0.578
-0.612
-0.645
-0.655
...
\
2. Lp qui hoach thc nghim theo n hnh S0 va thc hin thc nghim:
Quan h gia cc gi tr m ho vi gi tr thc hin thc nghim biu din theo cng thc:
Gi tr m ha
X thuc X goc
10.16
3. Lp n hnh S1.
n hnh S1 l n hnh S0 b i nh cho gi tr hm mc tiu khng mong mun
nht trong cc nh ca S0 (nh nht trong trng hp tm iu kin cc i, thay vo l
nh mi, i xng vi nh c qua cc nh cn li. Cng thc tnh to nh mi nh
sau:
xik xik
10.17
u 1
(xiu l ta trn vecto ca 3 nh gc; xik = l to trn vect nhn t i ca nh b i)

4. Lp n hnh S2.
Cn c vo kt qu thc nghim theo cc nh ca n hnh S 1, ta lp n hnh S2 t
n hnh S1 bng cch b i nh cho gi tr hm mc tiu nh nht trong cc nh ca S 1 v
thay vo l nh mi, i xng vi nh c qua cc nh cn li.
5. Tm iu kin thc nghim ti u.
Thc hin lin tip cc n hnh S 0, S1, S2, ....Sk, khi cc n hnh xoay quanh 1 nh
th nh l t hp cc iu kin thc nghim ti u.
V d 38: Ti u ho theo phng php n hnh.
1- Nu chn n hnh S0 theo h to sau:
xi mi =
ri
n 1
iu
1
2i (i 1)
Ri
i
2i (i 1)
Bng 10.11. Bng ma trn ca S0 nh sau (tnh 2 nhn t):

nh
x1
x2
0.5
0.289
- 0.5
0.289
- 0.578
(Ch : nh 3 ngc vi S0 trong phn l thuyt nn ri v -Ri ch khng phi - ri v Ri )
2- Bi ton: Kho st iu kin ti u cung cp Oxy cho ni ln men ph thuc vo tc

khuy V(x1) (vng/pht) v chiu su ca cnh khuy ngp vo dung dch (xem hnh bn)
h(x2) (cm) ca hm mc tiu y (lng Oxy ho tan).
- M ho:
x1
V 130
10
x2
h7
2
Cn c vo gi tr ca x1 v x2 trong ma trn S0 tm ra cc gi tr thc cn lm th

nghim ti cc nh ca S0 :
V 130
x11 0.5 11
tnh ra : V11 = 135 Vng / pht .
10
x 21 0.289
h11 7
2
nt
V12 130
10
h 7
x22 0.289 22
2
V 130
x13 0 13
10
h 7
x23 0.578 23
2
- Cch tnh nh mi :
h21 = 7.57 cm
x12 0.5
nt
V12 = 125 Vng / pht
nt
h22 = 7.58 cm
nt
V13 = 130 Vng / pht

nt
xiu ( mi ) =
2
n
n 1
iu
h23 = 5.84 cm
xii xii
Th d :
2
135 125 130 125 125 140
2
2
7.58 7.58 5.84 7.58 7.58 5.84
2
x14
x24
- Kt qu thc nghim c ghi li trong bng sau:
nh
1
Bng 10.13
V(x1)
135
h(x2)
7.58
Y
2.52
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
S6
S7
S8
S9
S10
S11
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
125
130
140
145
140
150
145
155
150
160
155
145
140
7.58
5.84
5.84
7.58
9.31
9.31
11.04
11.04
12.77
12.77
14.50
14.50
12.77
1.43
1.71
1.92
2.94
3.16
3.45
3.80
4.35
4.55
4.47
4.50
4.10
4.39
Nhn xt: Qua bng trn thy rng nh 10 c kt qu hm mc tiu y t gi tr ln nht.
Hnh 10.7. Dch chuyn vng ti u bng phng php n hnh

Nhn xt: Thy rng tt c cc nh xoay quanh nh 10. C ngha l vic tm vng phn tch
m trong c iu kin phn tch ti u theo quan im cc i ca hm mc tiu kt
thc. Ta ca nh 10 chnh l iu kin ti u ca th nghim.
Table for determining needed sizes of a randomly chosen sample from a given finite population
of n cases such that the sample proportion p will be within . 05 of the population proportion p
with a 95 percent level of confidence
N
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
S
10
14
19
24
28
32
36
40
44
48
52
56
59
63
66
70
73
76
80
86
92
97
103
108
113
118
123
127
132
136
N
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
440
460
480
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1100
Note: N is population size: S is sample size.
S
140
144
148
152
155
159
162
165
169
175
181
186
191
196
201
205
210
214
217
226
234
242
248
254
260
265
269
274
278
285
N
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
15000
20000
30000
40000
50000
75000
100000
S
291
297
302
306
310
313
317
320
322
327
331
335
338
341
346
351
354
357
361
364
367
368
370
375
377
379
380
381
383
384

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L c Ngc- Nhp mn x ly s li u va k hoach ha thc nghi m-12/2013

L c Ngc- Nhp mn x ly s li u va k hoach ha thc nghi m-12/2013

L c Ngc- Nhp mn x ly s li u va k hoach ha thc nghi m-12/2013

6.2. Hi qui v tng quan a nhn t

L c Ngc- Nhp mn x ly s li u va k hoach ha thc nghi m-12/2013

L c Ngc- Nhp mn x ly s li u va k hoach ha thc nghi m-12/2013

L c Ngc- Nhp mn x ly s li u va k hoach ha thc nghi m-12/2013

Bc 3: Tnh khong ca nhm c gi tr nh nht: 12 + 3 = 15, ta c nhm c gi tr nh

V d 4: Tm trung v ca tp s: 3, 5, 7, 9, 13, 15, 16, 19

b/ i vi s liu gp thanh nhm:

Trong : LL = Gii (lowest limit);

L c Ngc- Nhp mn x ly s li u va k hoach ha thc nghi m-12/2013

N = Tng s trng hp; cf = Tn s dn (cumulative frequency)

S t phn v l cc s chia tp s liu thnh 4 phn t. C 3 s t phn v l Q 1= X1/4,

- S t phn v ca tp N khng chia ht cho 4, th tnh theo cng thc :

b/ i vi s liu gp thanh nhm :

th Med nm trong nhm th k ( Xk, Xk + 1) c tnh nh sau:

L c Ngc- Nhp mn x ly s li u va k hoach ha thc nghi m-12/2013

Tng t, cc t phn v c xc nh theo cng thc chung sau y:

V d 6: Tnh Q1 v Q3 cho tp s liu phn nhm sau y:

1.5. Trung bnh cng

L c Ngc- Nhp mn x ly s li u va k hoach ha thc nghi m-12/2013

Trong : Am = S trung bnh cng gi thit (Assumed mean)

L c Ngc- Nhp mn x ly s li u va k hoach ha thc nghi m-12/2013

1.6. Trung bnh nhn

500 800 1600 3200 1196 hc vin

2- Tc tng tng nm:

Vy tc ng k d thi tng bnh qun trong 4 nm l: GMx 3 1.6 2 2 1.86

1.8. Trung bnh ca h: (trung bnh gia quyn)

L c Ngc- Nhp mn x ly s li u va k hoach ha thc nghi m-12/2013

2. Cc tham s c trng cho s phn tn ca tp s liu

N' = N khi N > 30 ( 2)

N' = N - 1 khi N < 30 (S2).

N' c bn cht l bc t do ca tp s liu kt qu o.

lch chun c cng th nguyn v cng c ngha nh phng sai.

V d 13: Xc nh S ca cc im s khng phn nhm sau y:

L c Ngc- Nhp mn x ly s li u va k hoach ha thc nghi m-12/2013

V d 14: Tnh lch chun ca tp s liu c phn nhm sau y:

V d 15: Tnh lch chun ca h gm 3 loi 1, 2 v 3:

d 12 (80 79.638) 2 0.131; d 22 (77.8 7.638) 2 3.378; d 32 (81.4 79.638) 2 3.105 ;

2.3. sai chun ( X hoc S X )

sai chun c th hiu l trung bnh phn tn ca cc gi tr kt qu o.

V h s bin thin khng c th nguyn, cho nn c th da vo h s bin thin

L c Ngc- Nhp mn x ly s li u va k hoach ha thc nghi m-12/2013

V d 16: nh gi s pht trin ca tr 7 tui theo cn nng trung bnh l 20.37 kg vi

Theo chiu cao: CV

Vy theo cn nng mc sai s ln hn.

thay vo phng trnh trn ta c dng chnh tc ca hm phn phi chun:

L c Ngc- Nhp mn x ly s li u va k hoach ha thc nghi m-12/2013

Nu t l n v ca thang chia trc honh m gi tr ca n c xc nh t im

th ca hm phn phi chun:

- Dng tch phn ca hm phn phi chun:

Y(u )du F(u ) P tn sut dn t -u n +u

- ngha hnh hc ca tch phn l din tch gii hn bi ng cong:

Khi P =1, iu c ngha l xc sut xut hin gi tr Xi l 100%.

L c Ngc- Nhp mn x ly s li u va k hoach ha thc nghi m-12/2013

Bin c c P = 0.9999 l bin c hoan toan chc chn.

Sf l lch chun, S x l sai chun

Khi Xi l s c tn s rt ln (tc l s c tn sut rt ln) th c th suy ra gn ng

L c Ngc- Nhp mn x ly s li u va k hoach ha thc nghi m-12/2013

N < 30: tun theo phn phi Student.

Ha: Xi > Xk hoc Xi < Xk

Trong : F l bin s ngu nhin; f1, f2 l cc bc t do; A l hng s ph thuc f1 v f2.