Chng 8: Ri ro v n by doanh nghip

Ni dung

1. Ri ro kinh doanh v n by kinh doanh

2. Ri ro ti chnh v n by ti chnh
3. n by tng hp

Minhnv

8.1. Ri ro kinh doanh v n by kinh doanh

Ri ro kinh doanh v cc yu t a/h ti ri ro KD

Ri ro kinh doanh l s dao ng hay khng chc chn v

li nhun trc li vay (EBIT) hay t sut sinh li kinh t
ca ti sn (ROA, ROE)
Ri ro kinh doanh ch yu l s bin thin ca doanh thu
v chi ph SXKD
Cu v sp ca DN

Mc s dng
n by KD

P ca SP u ra

Tc tng
trng

P nguyn liu
u vo

Cc yu t nh hng n ri ro
kinh doanh ca Doanh nghip

Minhnv

C/S iu chnh gi
bn SP

8.1. Ri ro kinh doanh v n by kinh doanh

n by kinh doanh

Chi ph c nh KD

Chi ph c nh KD

Chi ph c nh KD

n by kinh doanh l s dng chi ph c

nh kinh doanh ca DN trong hot ng
SXKD nhm hy vng gia tng li nhun trc
li vay v thu hay t sut li nhun kinh t
ca ti sn.
DN c t trng chi ph c
nh/Tng chi ph SXKD
mc cao th hin n by
kinh doanh ln v ngc li.
Li nhun
k vng

S dng n by kinh
doanh c th lm cho
DN li ln hoc l ln.

Minhnv

8.1. Ri ro kinh doanh v n by kinh doanh

Mc tc ng ca n by kinh doanh
Mc tc ng ca
n by kinh doanh
(DOL)

DOL =

EBIT

T l thay i ca li nhun trc thu v li vay

=

T l thay i ca sn lng hay doanh thu bn hng

(P - V)
Q(P V) - F

(P - V)
Q(P V) - F

EBIT + F
EBIT

Nu tng 1% sn lng s lm tng li nhun trc thu v li vay ln bng DOL

V d: Mt doanh nghip sn xut sn phm A, gi bn n v sn phm l

200.000. Chi ph c nh kinh doanh l 600 triu ng, chi ph bin i l
160.000/sp. Xc nh sn lng ha vn v mc n by kinh doanh mc
sn lng 25000 sn phm A.
Minhnv

8.2. Ri ro ti chnh v n by ti chnh

Mt s khi nim

Ri ro ti chnh l s dao ng ca t sut li nhun

vn ch s hu (ROE) hoc thu nhp trn 1 c phn
(EPS) v lm tng thm xc sut mt kh nng thanh
ton khi DN s dng vn vay v cc ngun ti tr
khc c chi ph c nh ti chnh.

n by ti chnh l th hin mc s dng vn

vay trong ngun vn ca DN vi hy vng gia tng t
sut li nhun vn ch s hu hay thu nhp trn mt
c phn.
H s n cao

n by ti chnh mc cao

H s n thp

n by ti chnh mc thp
Minhnv

8.2. Ri ro ti chnh v n by ti chnh

n by ti chnh nh hng ti
ROE

EPS

im cn bng EBIT

Thu thu nhp DN

()
( ) =
()
= ( +

)*(1-t)

Vi ROAE : T sut sinh li ca ti sn hay t sut li nhun trc li vay v

thu trn vn kinh doanh.
I: tin li phi tr; i: li sut vn vay; t: thu sut thu TNDN; D: Vn vay
1-t: l 1 hng s; ROE ph thuc vo: ROAE , I, D/E

Nu ROAE > i: DN cng s dng nhiu vn vay cng gia tng ROE
Nu ROAE < i: DN cng s dng nhiu vn vay cng gim st ROE
Nu ROAE = i: ROE trong cc trng hp khng s dng vn vay, nhiu
hay t vn vay u bng nhau, ch khc nhau mc ri ro.
Minhnv

8.2. Ri ro ti chnh v n by ti chnh

n by ti chnh nh hng ti

ROE (Return On Equity)

EPS (Earnings per share)

VD: Cty CP A chuyn sxkd sp A.

Cty d kin k hoch sxkd nh
sau:
- d kin doanh thu thun khi
kinh t pht trin bnh thng:
2000 triu/nm; kinh t tng
trng
nhanh
l
3000
triu/nm; khi suy thoi l 1000
triu/nm.
- Chi ph c nh l 400
triu/nm. Tng chi ph bin i
l 60% doanh thu thun; thu
sut 40%. D kin s vn kinh
doanh: 2000 triu ng, huy
ng vn bng:
+ Hoc ti tr 100% bng vn c
phn, pht hnh 100.000 CPPT.
+ Hoc 50% vn c phn bng
cch pht hnh 50.000 CPPT, vay
1000 triu, I =12%/nm.

im cn bng EBIT

Minhnv

Thu thu nhp DN

8.2. Ri ro ti chnh v n by ti chnh

n by ti chnh nh hng ti
ROE (Return On Equity)

EPS (Earnings per share)

im cn bng EBIT

Thu thu nhp DN

Thay i mc s dng vn vay s dn n

vic thay i thu nhp trn mt c phn
EPS.
Trong iu kin bnh thng: nu ROAE
> I, s dng n by ti chnh s lm gia
tng EPS d c vay vn hay khng.

Khi nn kinh t tng trng:

+ Nu cng ty t c EBIT cao hn, s dng n by ti chnh s lm
cho EPS tng trng cao hn so vi trng hp khng vay vn.
+ Nu EBIT gim st, s dng n by ti chnh s lm EPS gim nhanh hn,
nu cty b thua l, c ng s phi chu thu l nng hn so vi trng hp
khng s dng vn vay.
Minhnv

8.2. Ri ro ti chnh v n by ti chnh

n by ti chnh nh hng ti
ROE (Return On Equity)

EPS (Earnings per share)

Ti tr vn bng 100% vn c phn

Ti tr vn c s dng vn vay
EBIT l nh nhau.

im cn bng EBIT

Thu thu nhp DN

EPS c s khc nhau?

im cn bng EBIT l mc EBIT m
EPS l nh nhau d ti tr bng vn
vay hay bng c phn thng.

EBITI = 240 triu ng; EPS = 1.440ng/CP

- Nu EBIT < im cn bng EBIT, EPS ti tr

bng c phiu PT < EPS c s dng vn vay.
- Nu EBIT > im cn bng EBIT, EPS ti tr
bng
Minhnvc phiu PT > EPS c s dng vn vay.

8.2. Ri ro ti chnh v n by ti chnh

n by ti chnh nh hng ti
ROE (Return On Equity)

BI = I * t

EPS (Earnings per share)

im cn bng EBIT

Thu thu nhp DN

BI : Khon tit kim do s dng vn vay hay l chn thu ca

li vay tnh cho 1 nm.
I: Li vay vn phi tr trong nm
t: Thu sut thu thu nhp doanh nghip

Tc ng ca n by ti chnh khi s dng vn:

- Giai on u gia tng n tit kim thu > s gia tng t sut sinh li ca nh
u t chi ph s dng vn gim.
- Nu cng gia tang n nguy c mt vn cao ri ro cao Nh u t yu
cu t sut li nhun cao Chi ph s dng vn ln.
Tc ng ca n by ti gi c phiu
- S dng n by ti chnh mc nht nh chi ph s dng vn gim
thu nhp trn c phn (EPS) tng gi c phiu tng v ngc li.
Minhnv

8.2. Ri ro ti chnh v n by ti chnh

Mc tc ng ca n by ti chnh DFL (Degree of Financial Leverage)
DFL tc ng n li nhun sau thu hay t sut li nhn vn ch s hu (ROE)

Mc tc ng ca
n by ti chnh DFL

T l thay i ca t sut li
nhun vn ch s hu (hay EPS)

=
T l thay i ca li nhun
trc thu v li vay

Minhnv

8.2. Ri ro ti chnh v n by ti chnh

Mc tc ng ca n by ti chnh DFL (Degree of Financial Leverage)
V d: Mt doanh nghip chuyn sn xut kinh doanh loi sn phm A c s vn
kinh doanh l 100 triu ng, trong vn vay l 50 triu ng vi li vay vn l
10%/nm. Nm ti d kin c kh nng tiu th 10.000 sp vi gi 20.000/sp, chi
ph bin i cho 1 sn phm l 14.000 v tng chi ph c nh kinh doanh l 40
triu ng.
C I = 50 triu *10% = 5 triu
EBIT = 10.000 * (20.000 14.000) 40 triu = 20 triu ng
DFL = 20 triu/(20 triu 5 triu) = 1,33

Nh vy, ti mc li nhun trc li vay v thu l 20 triu ng nu doanh

nghip tng thm hoc gim bt 1% s li nhun ny th t sut li nhun vn
ch s hu s tng thm hoc gim bt 1,33%

Minhnv

8.3. n by tng hp DTL - Degree Total Leverage

DTL = DOL x DFL

T l thay i ca li nhun
trc thu v li vay
DTL =

Doanh nghip thng s dng kt hp c

hai n by Kinh doanh DOL v n by
ti chnh DFL nhm gia tng t sut li
nhun vn ch s hu ROE hay thu nhp
trn c phn EPS.

T l thay i ca t sut li nhun

vn ch s hu (hay EPS)
x
T l thay i ca li nhun
trc thu v li vay

T l thay i ca sn lng
hay doanh thu bn hng

T l thay i ca t sut li nhun vn ch s hu (hay EPS)

DTL =
T l thay i ca sn lng hay doanh thu bn hng
Minhnv

8.3. n by tng hp DTL - Degree Total Leverage

T l thay i ca t sut li nhun vn ch s hu (hay EPS)

DTL =
T l thay i ca sn lng hay doanh thu bn hng

DTL =

Q(P-V)
Q(P-V)-F-I

DTL cho bit khi doanh thu tiu th tng ln hoc gim i 1% th t sut li
nhun vn ch s hu hoc EPS tng ln hay gim i bao nhiu %
Minhnv

Ri ro v n by doanh nghip
Bi tp 1
Doanh nghip t nhn Tin Thnh chuyn sn xut kinh doanh mt
loi sn phm, c ti liu nm N nh sau:
- Sn lng tiu th trong nm l 3000 sn phm, vi gi bn
200.000/sn phm
- Tng chi ph c nh kinh doanh l: 80 triu ng
- Ch ph bin i cho 1 sn phm bng 70% gi bn.
Yu cu:
1. Xc nh li nhun trc li vay v thu ca doanh nghip?
2. Xc nh mc tc ng ca n by kinh doanh ca doanh nghip
ti mc sn lng 3000 sn phm?
3. Vn dng thc o mc tc ng ca n by kinh doanh (DOL)
hy xc nh nu sn lng tiu th tng thm c 10% th li nhun
trc li vay v thu tng ng bao nhiu phn trm v t c bao
nhiu triu ng?
Minhnv

Ri ro v n by doanh nghip
Bi tp 2
Cng ty c phn Lc Pht chuyn sn xut kinh doanh mt loi sn phm, c
ti liu nm N d kin nh sau:
- Doanh thu bn hng: 3000 triu ng. Tng chi ph c nh kinh doanh l
400 triu ng. T l chi ph bin di trn doanh thu l 60%.
- Tng vn lay l 4000 triu ng vi li sut 10%/nm.
- C phn thng ang lu hnh l 75 000 c phn
- Thu sut thu TNDN l 25%
Yu cu:
1. Xc nh thu nhp 1 c phn (EPS) ca cng ty nm N?
2. Xc nh n by kinh doanh, n by ti chnh v n by tng hp ca
cng ty?
3. Da vo kt qu cu 2, hy cho bit:
- Nu li nhun trc li vay v thu tng 10% thi thu nhp 1 c phn s
tng thm c bao nhiu ng?
- Nu doanh thu bn hng tng 10% th li nhun trc li vay v thu tng
Minhnv
thm bao nhiu ng v thu nhp 1 c
phn tng thm bao nhiu ng?

Ri ro v n by doanh nghip
Bi tp 3
Mt cng ty c phn chuyn sn xut kinh doanh loi sn phm A c ti liu
nm N nh sau:
- Tng sn phm d tnh tiu th trong nm l 20.000 sn phm, gi bn cha
c thu gi tr gia tng l 120.000 ng/sn phm.
- Chi ph sn xut kinh doanh trong nm:
+ Chi ph bin i cho 1 sn phm bng 50% gi bn cha c thu GTGT
+ Tng chi ph c nh kinh doanh l 600 triu ng (khng bao gm li tin vay)
- Cng ty phi np thu thu nhp vi thu sut 25%
- Tng s vn sn xut kinh doanh bnh qun s dng l 2.500 triu ng, trong
40% l vn vay vi li sut 10%/nm.
Yu cu:
1. Xc nh t sut li nhun vn ch s hu nm N ca cng ty?
2. Xc nh mc tc ng ca n by kinh doanh (DOL), n by ti chnh
(DFL), n by tng hp (DTL) ca cng ty ti mc sn lng 20.000 sn phm?
3. Nu cng ty c th tng thm c 10% sn lng tiu th, hy vn dng
mc n by tng hp xc nh t sut li nhun vn ch s hu l bao
nhiu?
Minhnv