World Differences

Part 2
Trends and patterns in fertility

Birth Rate (live births per

1000)
The birth rate of a country is dependent on
the fertility rate (the average number of
babies a woman will have)
and the age structure of the countrys
population.

CBR
TFR
GFR
ASBR

Age Structure

For a high birth rate you need a high %

of women of child rearing age 15-50
years old.
So a country with an ageing pop will have a
low and declining birth rate. (Japan 1995=10
2007=8)

A country with a young mean average age of

pop will have a high birth rate. (Uganda 2007=48)

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/pyramids.html

Spatial Pattern of Fertility - Total Births

More children are born each year in Africa than are born in the
Americas, all of Europe and Japan put together. (Worldmapper.com)

Global distribution of elderly people (+65)

A comparison of the 2 maps clearly shows that fat countries in terms of

number of elderly are thin in terms of total births, and vis-versa

And a more traditional map from Index Mundi

Fertility Rate Trends

General trend of decreasing fertility rates 1970s global average was 6 now 2.59 (2007)
Replacement level 2.1 (why 2.1 and not 2?)
MEDCs, NICs and other semi-periphery
economies have seen significant fertility rate
declines.
Countries in Southern Europe, Eastern Europe
and East Asia are below replacement level.
Even the least developed nations (such as
sub-Saharan Africa) are experiencing falling
fertility rates.

Bucking the Trends - Anomalies and Unique Cases

Japan (1.23) compared with other

MEDCs (UK 1.66, Sweden 1.66). In
societies which make breeding and
working compatible, women tend to do
both.
The USA (2.09) compared with other
MEDCs.
China (1.79) compared with other India
(2.79)

Economist (July 28 2007)

Population Momentum

By 2050 UN population projections predict significant

population growth.

So why; with falling fertility rates and slowing natural change are we still
predicted to have significant population growth in the future?

Population Momentum
Population momentum is the tendency for a
population to grow despite falls in BR and
fertility.
It occurs because of a relatively high
concentration of people in the pre-childbearing
and child bearing years; as these people grow
older and move through the reproductive ages
births will exceed deaths and populations will
continue to grow

Implications of Momentum

Thus in highly fertile countries with youthful

populations, growth will continue despite
significant declines in fertility
Moreover, in ageing countries such as those in
Europe, populations will continue to decline
even if fertility rates are increased to
replacement level.
Thus replacement level must be seen as a longterm concept rather than an indication of current
rates of change.
These implications are significant in terms of
population policy and management

Population
pyramids help us
to evaluate the
momentum
potential of a
country

Group Work
Take an example of a rapidly growing
population (eg Kenya) and a slowly
growing population (eg Germany)
Discuss the future consequences of their
current population structure
What will the government need to do?
And individuals?
What will be the situation in 2050?

A rapidly growing population

LEDCs e.g. Kenya
Can be identified by population pyramids and
the D.T.M
Overpopulation in rural areas soil exhaustion
Overcrowding lead to poverty?
Puts pressure on resources e.g. food, hospitals,
water, power and other services
Governmental money needs to be directed to
those who need it (depending on the ages
concerned)
Future more children? Knock-on effect
Particularly evident in ELDCs increase in
shanty towns, conditions worsen

Solutions:
More family planning
More contraception
Free abortions
Delay marriage
Improve education
Concentrate resources on lowering
the infant mortality rate

A slowly-growing population

- MEDCs eg Germany
- Fewer children can lead to schools
closing and more unemployment

More needs to be spent on pensions,

hospital beds, nursing homes etc.
Grey Power all pensioners have vote
cannot be ignored
Fewer working adults, taxes will have to up
or retirement age.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-1978450
9

Solutions:
Raise child benefit
Free nursery
Better maternity/ paternity rights
Tax credits for low income
Raise retirement age
Encourage retired people to take on
part-time jobs
Encourage immigration

Population Change Summary

Population change varies over time and through space.

High birth rates and falling death rates in LEDCs led to
the global population explosion from about 1950.
Current rates of population growth are slowing down as
fertility rates decline globally.
However, population momentum will mean we see
continued growth with the world population peaking at
around 9 billion in 2050.
Although significant global declines in mortality have
been achieved in recent years life expectancy in many
areas of sub-Saharan Africa is still very low as a result of
the prevalence of infectious diseases (especially
HIV/Aids).

Key Terms
Crude Birth Rate (CBR) the number of live births in a
year per 1000 people
Total Fertility Rate the average number of children
born to a women during her lifetime
General Fertility Rate (GFR) the number of live births
per 1000 females of child bearing age (15-44 years)
Crude Death Rate (CDR) the number of deaths per
1000 of the population in a year
Life Expectancy the average number of years a
person can expect to live
Age-specific death rate such as infant and child
mortality
Doubling times; with a 2% growth rate the population
doubling time would be 35 years, with 3% it would take 24
years and with 4% only 17 years for a population to
double (to get the doubling time divide 70 by the %)

So why have we seen a

general decrease in fertility?
Its all about people, places and decisions

"Geography is the
study of The Earth
as the home of
people"
Yi-Fu Tuan 1991
Its about people and
the decisions people
make in their lives.
How place affects
peoples decisions
and how peoples
decisions affect the
place we live.

Fertility Rates and Human Behaviour

Demographics is a study of the sum of
many different peoples individual
decisions.
The use of birth control is the key factor
affecting fertility rates.

Fertility Rates and Birth

Control
Thus the fertility rate will depend on what
social, political, economic, cultural and
environmental factors combine to affect
individual peoples decisions on birth control.
To understand the link between development
and fertility you have to observe how these
factors which affect birth control change as a
country develops.

Decisions on birth control

development continuum
Least developed
countries

List all the factors you can think of that will influence a
persons decision to use birth control try and place them on
the continuum where you think they best fit in terms of a
countries development.
Use different colour highlighters to indicate if a factor is social,
economic, environmental or political (SEEP)

Most developed
countries

Once again Gapminder steps in

to illustrate the links between
development and fertility
Gapminder World
Compare fertility rate and income; try
fertility and other development indicators
as well.