Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Modules in
Undergraduate
Mathematics
and Its
Applications
The Spread of
Forest Fires
Emily E. Puckette
Published in
cooperation with
The Society for
Industrial and
Applied Mathematics,
The Mathematical
Association of America,
The National Council
of Teachers of
Mathematics,
The American
Mathematical
Association of
Two-Year Colleges,
The Institute for
Operations Research and
the Management
Sciences, and
The American
Statistical Association.
418
24.4 (2003)
TITLE:
AUTHOR:
Emily E. Puckette
Department of Mathematics and Computer Science
Sewanee: The University of the South
735 University Ave.
Sewanee, TN 37383-1000
eep@sewanee.edu
MATHEMATICAL FIELD:
Probability, Calculus
APPLICATION FIELD:
Biology, Forestry
TARGET AUDIENCE:
ABSTRACT:
PREREQUISITES:
Summation of geometric series, elementary probability, intuitive limits; for the Appendix, derivatives and
limits of rational functions.
c
Copyright
2003 by COMAP, Inc. All rights reserved.
Permission to make digital or hard copies of part or all of this work for personal or classroom use
is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for prot or commercial
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419
Table of Contents
1. INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
6. CONCLUSIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
420
24.4 (2003)
Paul J. Campbell
Solomon Garfunkel
Editor
Executive Director, COMAP
1.
421
Introduction
2.
422
X2
X3
X1
X4
Figure 1. An unburnt tree at X with neighboring trees.
Exercises
2. If Sn (X1 ) = F , Sn (X2 ) = F , Sn (X3 ) = B, and Sn (X4 ) = U , the tree at X
will remain unburnt at time n + 1 only if the re at sites X1 and X2 do not
spread to X. The probability of not spreading the re from a burning tree
to a neighbor is 1 p.
Let A be the event that site X1 s re does not spread to site X, and
let B be the event that site X2 s re does not spread to site X. Using the
423
independence of the re spread from site to site, the probability that site X
remains in state U at time n + 1 is
P (A B) = P (A) P (B) = (1 p)2 .
What is the probability that the site X switches to state F at time n + 1?
That is, what is the probability that the tree at X is on re at time n + 1?
3. Consider this assignment of states to sites: Sn (X1 ) = F , Sn (X2 ) = B,
Sn (X3 ) = F , and Sn (X4 ) = F .
a) If Sn (X) = U , what is the probability that Sn+1 (X) = U ?
b) Again, if Sn (X) = U , what is the probability that Sn+1 (X) = F ?
4. Consider the case where at time n exactly i neighboring trees are on re,
i = 0, 1, . . . , 4.
a) If Sn (X) = U , what is the probability that Sn+1 (X) = U ?
b) Again, if Sn (X) = U , what is the probability that Sn+1 (X) = F ?
3.
424
various times, for example, at n = 20, n = 40, and n = 60, to see how the
re is spreading over time. For each value of p, run the program several
times to observe any trends in how the re spreads. You may also want to
increase the size of the lattice to explore further. What do you notice about
the spread of the re? For which values of p does the re appear to die out?
For which values does the re seem to continue spreading?
For convenience, let E be the event that the re spreads innitely. Hence
for p < pc , the probability of E is 0, while if p > pc , the probability of E is
greater than 0. The critical probability is therefore dened to be
pc = inf{p | P (E ) > 0}
where inf denotes the greatest lower bound of the set.
4.
425
P (re spreading along a self-avoiding path of length n)
n=N
(4 3n1 )pn
n=N
= 4p
(3p)n1 .
n=N
Exercise
8. If p < 13 , then 0 3p < 1, and the sum in Q is the tail of a convergent
geometric series. Use the closed form ofthe series to simplify the upper
426
5.
0
M
- site in J
Figure 2. Illustration of a re starting from a row of trees from 0 to M .
0
M
427
boundary B
Figure 3. The boundary B of the region A corresponding to the re in Figure 2.
428
P (closed boundary B of length k exists)
=
k=N
k=N
= (1 p)
k[3(1 p)]k1 ,
k=N
429
6.
Conclusions
We now have bounds on the critical probability pc :
1
2
pc .
3
3
You should review your computer simulation results to see how those results
agree. The next mathematical step would be to improve the techniques so as
to narrow the bounds of pc , and ultimately nd the exact value of the critical
probability. The proof that
pc actually equals
1
2
was rst published by Kesten [1980], and other proofs have subsequently appeared (e.g., Grimmett [1989]).
7.
There are other interesting questions besides innite spread. For example,
for transmission probabilities below the critical probability, we know that the
re will die out.
How far will it spread on average before it dies out?
What can be determined about the shape of the burnt region? Is it circular,
or does it exhibit some other pattern?
9
430
10
8.
431
1. a) If the tree at site X at time n is burnt, then the tree at that site is burnt at
the following time n + 1.
b) If the tree at site X at time n is on re, then the tree at that site is burnt
at the following time n + 1.
c) If the tree at site X at time n is unburnt, then the tree at that site is either
unburnt or on re at the following time n + 1.
2. The probability that the tree at site X is on re at time n + 1 is 1 (1 p)2 .
3. a) If Sn (X) = U , the probability that Sn+1 (X) = U is (1 p)3 .
b) If Sn (X) = U , the probability that Sn+1 (X) = U is 1 (1 p)3 .
4. a) If Sn (X) = U , the probability that Sn+1 (X) = U is (1 p)i .
b) If Sn (X) = U , the probability that Sn+1 (X) = U is 1 (1 p)i .
6. a) There are 4 options for the choice of X.
b) There are 3 options for the choice of Y .
c) There are 3 options for the third step.
7. There are 4 3 = 12 self-avoiding paths of length 2 and 4 3 3 = 36 selfavoiding paths of length 3.
a) There are fewer than 4 3 3 3 self-avoiding paths of length 4.
8. Let x = 3p. Then Q 4p
(3p)n1 = 4p
n=N
(3p)N 1
.
1 3p
(3p)N 1
= 0.
N 1 3p
9. lim Q 4p lim
N
11
432
9.
Appendix
We give more details on the geometric series used in several exercises. Let
x be a real number. For some integer M , dene the sum SM to be
2
SM = 1 + x + x + x + + x
M
xk .
k=0
Exercises
A1. Consider the derivative of SM :
M
dSM
= 0 + 1 + 2x + 3x2 + + M xM 1 =
n xn1 .
dx
n=1
d
1 xM +1
dSM
=
= .
dx
dx
1x
dSM
. Does this limit exist for 1 < x < 1?
M dx
Let S = lim
A2. For 1 < x < 1, let N = M + 1 and dene the tail of the series
TN
d SM
=
=S
n xn1 .
dx
n=N
A2.
dSM
(M + 1)xM (1 x) + (1 xM +1 )
SM
(M + 1)xM
=
+
.
=
dx
(1 x)2
1x
1x
For 1 < x < 1, the limit does exist, and S = 1/(1 x)2 .
lim TN = 0.
12
433
References
Durrett, R. 1988a. Crabgrass, measles, and gypsy moths: An introduction to
interacting particle systems. Mathematical Intelligencer 10: 3747.
. 1988b. Lecture Notes on Particle Systems and Percolation. CA: Wadsworth
and Brooks/Cole.
Gardner, Martin. 1970. The fantastic combinations of John Conways new solitaire game Life. Scientic American 223 (4): 120ff. 1983. Reprinted with
substantial additional commentary in Wheels, Life and Other Mathematical
Amusements, 214257. NY: W.H. Freeman.
Grimmett, G. 1989. Percolation. NY: Springer-Verlag.
Kesten, H. 1980. The critical probability of bond percolation on the square
lattice equals 12 . Communications in Mathematical Physics 74: 4159.
Liggett, T.M. 1985. Interacting Particle Systems. NY: Springer-Verlag.
Schaffhauser, Christoph. 1996. Game of Life. Version 1.7.0. Computer program
for PowerPC and Motorola 680x0 Macintosh computers. Available at http:
//www.datacomm.ch/darkeagl/ .
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