CHNG I.

I CNG V XC SUT
1:Bin c v quan h gia cc bin c
1. Php th v bin c.
2. Phn loi bin c : gm 3 loi
- Bin c chc chn:
- Bin c khng th c hay khng th xy ra:
- Bin c ngu nhin: A, B, C
3. So snh cc bin c.
nh ngha 1.1: A B (A nm trong B hay A ko theo B) nu
A xy ra th B xy ra.Vy
A B
A B
B A
nh ngha 1.2: A c gi l bin c s cp B A, B A.
1

4. Cc php ton trn bin c (hnh 1.1 v 1.2 ):

A.B A B xy ra khi v ch khi A xy ra v B xy ra.

A B A B xy ra khi v ch khi A xy ra hoc B xy ra.

A B

xy ra khi v ch khi A xy ra v B khng xy ra.

A A xy ra khi v ch khi A khng xy ra.

 Hnh 1.1

Hnh 1.2

 Cc php ton ca bin c c tnh cht ging cc php ton

ca tp hp, trong c cc tnh cht i ngu:

A A , A A
i

Ngn ng biu din: tng = c t nht mt ;tch = tt c u.

(A = c t nht 1 phn t c tnh cht x) suy ra (khng A = tt
c u khng c tnh cht x).
V d 1.1: (A = c t nht 1 ngi khng b ln) suy ra( khng A
= tt c u ln).
nh ngha 1.3: bin c A v B c gi l xung khc vi nhau
nu

A.B

2: Cc nh ngha xc sut.
1. nh ngha c in v xc sut
nh ngha 2.1: gi s trong mi php th cc kt cc l ng
kh nng v c tt c n kt cc nh vy. K hiu m l s cc
kt cc thun li cho bin c A. Khi y xc sut ca bin c A
l:
m
( A)
n
V d 2.1: Trong 1 hp c 6 bi trng, 4 bi en.Ly ngu nhin
ra 5 bi. Tnh xc sut ly c ng 3 bi trng.
Gii

3
6

C .C

5
C 10

2
4

( phn phi siu bi)

Ch : ly 1 lc 5 bi ging ly ln lt 5 bi khng hon li

5

 V d 2.2: C 10 ngi ln ngu nhin 5 toa tu. Tnh xc sut

toa th nht khng c ngi ln:

4 10

510
2. nh ngha hnh hc v xc sut:
nh ngha 2.2: Gi s trong mi php th cc kt cc l ng
kh nng v c biu din bng cc im hnh hc trn min .
K hiu D l min biu din cc kt cc thun li cho bin c A.
Khi y xc sut ca bin c A l:

o o D
P ( A)
o o

( o l di,din tch
hoc th tch)
6

 V d 2.3: Chia on AB c nh ngu nhin thnh 3 on.

Tnh xc sut 3 on lp thnh 3 cnh ca 1 tam gic.
Gii: Gi di on th 1,2 l x,y.Khi y on th 3 l l-x-y

x 0, y 0

x y l

x
x y l x y

D x l x y y y
y l x y x

l
y
2
l
1
( A)
2
4
l
2
7

HNH 2.1

 V d 2.4: Nm ln mt phng c k nhng ng thng song

song cch nhau 1 khong l 2a mt cy kim c di 2t<2a.Tnh
xc sut cy kim ct 1 trong cc ng thng song song
Gii: Gi I l im gia cy kim ,IH l khong cch t I ti
ng thng gn nht; l gc nghing.Khi y ta c:

0

d t .a
0 h IH a
0
D
0 h IK t s in
din tch D =

2t
t sin d 2 t ( A )
a
9

HNH 2.2

10

HNH 2.3

11

Cc tnh cht ca xc sut : xem sch gio khoa

3. nh ngha xc sut theo tin
nh ngha 2.3: K hiu l tp hp cc bin c trong 1
php th. Ta gi xc sut l 1 quy tc t mi bin c A vi 1
s P(A) tha mn cc tin :
0 P A 1
(I)
P () 1, P 0
(II)
(III) Vi mi dy bin c i mt xung khc,ta c:

H qu :

i 1

Ai

A
i

i 1

P( A) 1 P( A)

4.nh ngha xc sut theo thng k:xem sch gio khoa

12

3: Cc nh l xc sut
1: nh l cng xc sut

nh l 3.1(hnh 3.1):

P(A+B) = P(A) + P(B) P(AB)

V d 3.1: C 10 ngi ln ngu nhin 5 toa tu. Tnh xc

sut toa th nht hoc toa th hai khng c ngi ln.
A l bin c toa th 1 khng c ngi ln,
B l bin c toa th 2 khng c ngi ln. Ta c :

( A B ) P ( A) P (B ) P ( AB )
10

10

10

4
4
3
10 10 10
5
5
5
13

HNH 3.1

nh l 3.1
n

n1
Ai Ai AA

AA
A

...

1)
P(AA
i j i j k
1 2...An )
i j
i jk
i1 i1
14

1
Ch : v phi trong tng th 1 c Cn s hng, trong
2
k
C
C
tng th 2 c n s hng,, trong tng th k c n s
hng,, trong tng th n c Cnn s hng.

V d 3.2: C k ngi ln ngu nhin n toa tu (k>n).

Tnh xc sut tt c cc toa u c ngi ln
Bi gii A - tt c cc toa u c ngi ln
- c t nht 1 toa khng c ngi ln.
Ai - toa th i khng c
ngi ln, i =1, 2,n
n

Ai

i 1

V cc toa tu c vai tr nh nhau nn p

dng cng thc cng xc sut ta c :
15

n n
n1
Ai Ai AA
i j AAA
i j k ...(1) P(AA
1 2...An)
i j
i jk
i1 i1

Cn1 . A1 Cn2 . A1 A2 Cn3 . A1 A2 A3

... (1) n 1 P( A1 A2 ... An )
1 n 1
C
n

nk

2 n 2
C
n

nk

3 n 3
C
n

nk

k
1
... 1 Cnn 1. k 0
n
n

V d 3.3: C n bc th b ngu nhin vo n phong b

c sn a ch.
a)Tnh xc sut c t nht 1 bc th ng a ch.
b) Tnh xc sut ch c ng 1 bc th ng a ch
c) Tnh xc sut ch c ng m bc th ng a ch
16

Bi gii

A - C t nht 1 bc ng.
A Ai
i - Bc th i ng
i 1
V cc bc th c vai tr nh nhau nn p dng cng
thc cng xc sut ta c :
n

n1
Ai Ai AA

AAA

...

1)
P(AA
i j i j k
1 2...An)
i j
i jk
i1 i1
C n1 . A1 C n2 . A1 A 2 C n3 . A1 A 2 A 3
... ( 1) n 1 P ( A1 A 2 ... A n )
C

1
n

n 1 ! C 2 n 2 ! C 3 n 3 ! ...

n!

n 1

n!

n!

n 1
n

1!
.

n!

1
1
1
1
1
n 1
1

... 1 .
n!
2! 3! 4!
n!
17

Bn -Khng c bc no ng a ch trong n bc th

Cn -Ch c ng 1 bc ng a ch trong n bc th
1 1 1
n 1
Bn A P( Bn ) 1 P( A) ... 1 .
2! 3! 4!
n!
P (Cn ) n.P ( A1 ).P ( Bn 1 )

1 1 1
1
n 1
... 1 .
2! 3! 4!
(n 1)!

Cn ,m -Ch c ng m bc ng a ch trong n bc th
1
P ( A1 A2 ... Am ) m P(Cn ,m ) Cnm .P( A1 A2 ... Am ).P( Bn m )
An
1 1 1 1
1 1 n m (1) k
nm

... 1 .

m ! 2! 3! 4!
(n m)! m ! k 0 k !
18

2. nh l nhn xc sut
nh ngha 3.2: Xc sut ca bin c B khi bit rng bin c A
xy ra c gi l xc sut ca B vi iu kin A v k hiu
l P(B/A).
Ch : bin c A c th xy ra trc, ng thi hoc sau B
Ngn ng biu din: P(B/A) = xc sut B bit (nu)A hoc Cho
A tnh xc sut B.
nh l 3.2: P(AB)=P(A).P(B/A)=P(B).P(A/B)
1. 2 ... n 1 . 2 / 1 . 3 / 1 2 ... n / 1 2 ... n1

H qu:

. /
/

19

 nh ngha 3.3: Hai bin c A,B c gi l c lp vi nhau

nu xc sut ca bin c ny khng ph thuc vo vic bin
c kia xy ra hay cha trong 1 php th.
nh ngha 3.4: Mt h cc bin c c gi l c lp ton
phn nu mi bin c ca h c lp vi 1 t hp bt k ca
cc bin c cn li.
nh l 3.3: A, B c lp khi v ch khi P(AB)=P(A).P(B)
nh l 3.4: Gi s i , i 1, n l c lp ton phn. Khi
n
n
y ta c:
1 . ( A i )
i1
n

i1

2 . ( A i ) 1
i1

i1

Ch : Trong trng hp c lp khng nn dng cng thc

cng xc sut m nn dng cng thc nhn xc sut.
20

 V d 3.3: 1 mng gm n chi tit mc ni tip.Xc

sut hng ca chi tit th i l Pi . Tnh xc sut
mng hng.
Gii: i - bin c chi tit th i hng
n
i
A - bin c mng hng
i1
Vy xc sut mng hng l:
n
n
i 1 i 1 11 12 ...1n
i1
i1

Ch :

P ( A) 1 1 1 2 ... 1 n
21

V d 3.4: Tung 3 con xc xc cn i,ng cht. Tnh xc sut

:
1. Tng s chm bng 9 bit c t nht 1 mt 1 chm
2. C t nht mt mt 1 chm bit s chm khc nhau tng i
mt.

Gii:
1. Gi A l c t nht 1 mt 1 chm.
B l tng s chm bng 9
C l cc s chm khc nhau tng i mt
63 53

15 63
3
15
6
/
3. 3 3
6 6 5 91
15
3
6
22

 S cch c t nht mt mt 1 chm v tng bng 9:

1+2+6 suy ra c 3! cch
1+3+5 suy ra c 3! cch
1+4+4 suy ra c 3 cch
Suy ra c 15 cch c t nht mt mt 1 chm v tng bng 9
2.

6 .5 .4
C
63
3 .5 .4
C
63

P( AC ) 1
/ C

P(C )
2

23

V d 3.5: T 1 hp c 10 bi trng , 6 bi en ,ngi ta ly ln

lt khng hon li tng bi cho n khi c 5 bi en thi dng
li.Tnh xc sut ln th 3 ly c bi trng nu bit rng a
dng li ln th 9.
Gii:
Gi A l dng li ln th 9, B l ln th 3 ly c bi trng

mA : 4T 4

mAB : 3T 4

mAB C74
P( B / A)
4
mA C8
24

3. Cng thc xc sut y v cng thc Bayes:

nh ngha 3.5: H H i , i 1, n c gi l h y , nu
trong mi php th nht nh 1 v ch 1 trong cc bin c Hi
xy ra.
nh l 3.4: Gi s H i , i 1, n l h y . Ta c:
n

i 1

i 1

A P ( AH i ) P ( H i ).P ( A / H i ) (cng thc y ).

Hi Hi . / Hi
Hi /

, i 1, n (cng thc Bayess)

25

Ch :
n

1.

/ H i / / H i
i 1

2.

Vi:

/

n

H i / H i
i 1

26

V d 3.5: C 2 hp bi cng c, hp 1 cha 4 bi trng v 6 bi

xanh, hp 2 cha 5 bi trng v 7 bi xanh.Ly ngu nhin 1
hp, t hp ly ngu nhin1 bi th c bi trng. Tm xc
sut vin bi tip theo, cng ly t hp trn ra l bi trng.
Gii:. Ly ngu nhin 1 hp: H1 ly c hp 1
H2 ly c hp 2

H1 H2 1/ 2
Hp 1: 4t + 6x , Hp 2: 5t + 7x
A- bin c ly c bi trng ln 1
B- bin c ly c bi trng ln 2

27

Cch 1:
H 1 / H1 H 2 / H 2
1 4 1 5
. .
2 10 2 12
H1 / H1
H1 /

H2 /

1 4
.
2 10
P( A)

H2 / H2

1 5
.
2 12
P( A)

/ H 1 / . / H1 H 2 / . / H 2

3/9

4/11

28

Cch 2:

H1 / H1 H2 / H2
1 4 1 5
. .
2 10 2 12
H1 . / H1 H2 . / H2
H1 . / H1 .P(B / AH1 ) H2 . / H2 .P(B / AH2 )
1 4 3 1 5 4
. . . .
2 10 9 2 12 11
29

Ch
Nu sau ln 1 ly c bi trng ta tr bi vo hp ri mi
ly tip ln 2 th li gii thay i nh sau:
3
4

;
9
1 0
4
5

1 1
1 2
P(B)=P(A), trong c 2 bi ton.
Nu cu hi l :Gi s ln 1 ly c bi trng tnh xc sut
bi ly c hp 1, th p s l:

P( H1 / A)
30

V d 3.6: C 1 tin tc in bo to thnh t cc

tn hiu(.)v (-). Qua thng k cho bit l do
tp m, bnh qun 2/5 tn hiu(.) v 1/3 tn
hiu(-) b mo. Bit rng t s cc tn hiu
chm v vch trong tin truyn i l 5:3. Tnh
xc sut sao cho nhn ng tn hiu truyn i
nu nhn c chm.

31

 Gii :
H1 l bin c truyn i chm,
5
3
P ( H1 ) , P ( H2 )
H2 l bin c truyn i vch.
8
8
Gi A l bin c nhn c chm .

H1 . / H1 H 2 / H 2
5 3 3 1 1
. .
8 5 8 3 2
H1 / H1
H1 /

5 3
.
3
8
5

1
4
2
32

4. Cng thc Bernoulli:

nh l 3.5: Gi s trong mi php th 1 bin c A c th xut
hin vi xc sut p (khi A xut hin ta quy c l thnh cng).
Thc hin n php th ging nhau nh vy. Khi y xc sut
c ng k ln thnh cng l :
n, k , p Cnk . p k .q n k , k 0,1,..., n (Phn phi nh thc)
Ch 1 : t nay tr i ta k hiu q=1-p
Ch 2: Thc ra cng thc c dng

n, k , p Cnk . p k .Cnnkk .q n k , k 0,1,..., n

nh ngha 3.6: K hiu k0 l s sao cho:

n, k0 , p Max n, k , p , 0 k n
Khi y k0 c gi l s ln thnh cng c nhiu kh nng xut
hin nht(tc l ng vi xc sut ln nht)
nh l 3.6:

k0 n 1 p hoc k0 n 1 p 1
33

k
n

Ch :
n, k ,1/ 2 C . 0,5
V d 3.7: Tung cng lc 20 con xc xc.
1. Tnh xc sut c ng 4 mt lc xut hin.
2. Tnh s mt lc c nhiu kh nng xut hin nht.
3. Tnh xc sut c t nht 1 mt lc.
4. Tnh s con sc sc t nht cn tung xc sut c
t nht 1 mt lc khng nh hn 0,99.
4
16
4
Gii:
1) 20, 4,1/ 6 C20 1/ 6 . 5 / 6
2) k0 20 1 / 6 3 k0 2
3) P 1 (5 / 6) 20 0,9739
4)1 (5 / 6) n 0,99 (5 / 6) n 0, 01 n 26
34

V d 3.8:Trong 1 hp c N bi trong c M bi trng cn li l

en. Ly ngu nhin ln lt tng bi c hon li ra n bi. Khi y
xc sut ly c ng k bi trng c tnh bng cng thc
Bernoulli ni trn vi p = M/N (phn phi nh thc) :
k

nk

M
M

k M
nk
n, k , Cn .Cn k . 1 , k 0,1,..., n
N
N

V d 3.9:Trong 1 hp c N bi trong c M bi trng cn li l

en. Ly ngu nhin ln lt tng bi khng hon li ra n bi.
Khi y xc sut ly c ng k bi trng l

C Mk .C Nn kM

, k 0, n
n
CN

(Phn phi siu bi)

Ch : y N-M l s bi khng trng.

Ch : Ly bi : + Khng hon li l siu bi
+ C hon li l nh thc.
35