Tai Lieu On Thi Thong Ke Kinh Doanh - CTP

Cng thc cn nh
v cch gii
ba dng cu hi thi
thi Thng K Kinh Doanh

Thi gian: 60 pht.
S lng cu hi: 3 4 cu.
Cu trc thi:
Dng 1: Phn t thng k, tnh cc c trng o lng thng k, iu tra chn mu.
Dng 2: Dy s thi gian v d bo thng k.
Dng 3: Ch s.
CHNG 3: TM TT V TRNH BY D LIU

1. Phn t thng k
- Xc nh s t k:
= (2. )
- Xc nh khong cch t h:
+ Bin lin tc:
+ Bin ri rc:
) (
2. S i din ca t ( )
Tr s gia =
+x
2
3. Tn s tch ly
S =
4. Tn sut (%)
d =
f
. 100
f
5. th phn phi tn s (Histogram)

Thng c s dng biu din d liu trn bng tn s. th phn phi tn s
c biu din di dng biu hnh ct. Khi xy dng th ny, cc biu hin ca
bin, c trng m ta quan tm nh: tui, thnh phn kinh t, doanh thu c th
hin trn trc honh, cn trc tung th hin tn s (Frequency) ca cc biu hin.
TRNG I HC TI CHNH - MARKETING 1
CHNG 4: THNG K CC MC CA HIN TNG KT - XH

1. S tng i (%)
S tng i nhim v k hoch
. 100
. 100
. 100
S tng i hon thnh k hoch
. 100
S tng i ng thi:
. 100
. 100
S tng i kt cu (t trng)
. 100
2. S bnh qun (Mean)

S trung bnh cng n gin
=
S bnh qun gia quyn
S trung bnh iu ha
3. Mode (M0)
=
+
)
Trong : F l mt phn phi
= 1,
Lu : tnh Mode (M0) khi cc t c khong cch u nhau th c th thay F bng fi
2 TRNG I HC TI CHNH - MARKETING
4. Median (Me S trung v)
=
Trong :
l tn s tch ly ca t trc t cha Me
T cha Me l t c tr s tn s tch ly ln hn gn nht vi
5. T phn v (Quartiles)
Q1: t phn v th nht l gi tr ng v tr
Q2: t phn v th hai l gi tr ng v tr
Q3: t phn v th ba l gi tr ng v tr
, l phn v th 25.
, l phn v th 50.
, l phn v th 75.
Ta c:
1

4
+ .
3

4
+ .
6. Cc c trng o lng phn tn ( bin thin ca tiu thc)

6.1 Khong bin thin (Range - ton c)
Khong bin thin cng nh th tng th cng ng u, s trung bnh cng c tnh
i din cao v ngc li. Tuy nhin khong bin thin cha phn nh mt cch y
phn tn ca tt c cc quan st.
6.2 tri gia (Interquartile Range)
=
tri gia cng ln, mc bin thin ca cc bin cng ln.

6.3 lch tuyt i bnh qun (Mean absolute deviation)
lch tuyt i bnh qun cng nh, tng th cng ng u, do tnh cht i
biu ca s trung bnh cng cao. lch tuyt i bnh qun c u im hn khong
bin thin v tri gia v n xt n tt c cc lng bin trong dy s.
6.4 Phng sai mu (variance)
)

1
( )
Phng sai mu hiu chnh
)
1
Phng sai mu hiu chnh c s dng nhiu trong thng k suy din, nh c
lng, kim nh (chng 7). Phng sai c gi tr nh cho bit dy s phn tn (bin
thin) t.
6.5 lch chun mu v lch chun mu hiu chnh (Standard deviation)
; =
lch chun cng nh, dy s phn tn cng t.

6.6 H s bin thin (Coefficient of variation)
. 100 (%)
H s bin thin c dng so snh phn tn gia cc hin tng c n v

tnh khc nhau, hoc gia cc hin tng cng loi nhng c s trung bnh khng bng
nhau.
6.7 Kho st hnh dng phn phi ca dy s
Phn phi i xng khi: =
=
Phn phi lch phi khi: >
>
Phn phi lch tri khi: <
<
Ngoi ra ngi ta cn dng i lng Skewness l mt i lng o lng mc
lch ca phn phi v mt trong hai pha, cn c gi l h s bt i xng.
3(
3(
Nu phn phi i xng: Skewness = 0

Nu phn phi lch phi: Skewness 0
Nu phn phi lch tri: Skewness 0
Lu : Nu bi khng cp n phng sai, khi tnh lch chun mu hiu
chnh c th k hiu l v cng thc khng thay i.
CHNG 5: CHUI S THI GIAN (TIMES SERIES)

t
y
t1
y1
t2
y2
t3
y3
tn
yn
I. CC CH TIU M T DY S THI GIAN

1. Mc bnh qun theo thi gian
i vi dy s thi k:
=
i vi dy s thi im:
= 2
++
i vi dy s thi im c khong cch khng u nhau:
2. Lng tng (gim) tuyt i

Lng tng (gim) tuyt i lin hon: =
Lng tng (gim) tuyt i nh gc: = ,
, = 2,3
= 2,3
=
Lng tng (gim) tuyt i trung bnh:
=
=
1
3. Tc pht trin
Tc pht trin lin hon:
Tc pht trin nh gc:
,
,
= 2,3
= 2,3
= ,
= 2,3
Tc pht trin trung bnh (s trung bnh nhn Geometric Mean):

=
4. Tc tng (gim)
Tc tng (gim) lin hon:
Tc tng (gim) nh gc:
=
=
Tc tng (gim) trung bnh:

= 1(
= 100 (
=
=
1,
1,
= 2,
= 2,
5. Gi tr tuyt i ca 1% tng (gim)

=
(%)
. 100
100
II. MT S PHNG PHP BIU HIN XU HNG BIN NG C BN

CA HIN TNG
1. Phng php s bnh qun trt (trung bnh di ng)
L s bnh qun cng ca mt nhm nht nh cc mc ca dy s c tnh
bng cch ln lt loi tr dn cc mc u, ng thi thm vo cc mc tip
theo, sao cho tng lng cc mc tham gia tnh s bnh qun cng khng thay i.
2. Phng php th hin xu hng bng hm s (phng php ng thng)
=
+
Trong :
c xc nh bng h phng trnh

=
3. Phn tch bin ng thi v

L phng php nghin cu xc nh s bin ng mt cch c quy lut vo nhng
thi k nht nh trong vng mt nm ca hin tng kinh t x hi.
=
: Ch s thi v ca thi gian t

: S bnh qun cc mc ca cc thi gian c cng tn i
: S bnh qun ca tt c cc mc trong dy s
III. D BO BIN NG CA DY S THI GIAN
t
y
t1
y1
t2
y2
tn-1
yn-1
tn
yn
tn+1
yn+1
tn+L
=
=
Vi L l tm xa d bo.
1. M hnh d bo tc pht trin bnh qun
=
2. M hnh d bo theo mc tng, gim tuyt i bnh qun

=
3. M hnh d bo theo m hnh hi quy ng thng (ngoi suy hm xu th

tuyn tnh)
=
+ .
CHNG 6: CH S
1. Ch s c th
Ch s gi c c th:
. 100%
=
Ch s c th khi lng:
. 100%
2. Ch s tng hp
Ch s tng hp gi c (%)
( ) ( )
Laspeyres
=
( ) ( )
( ) ( )
Paasche
=
( ) ( )
Ch s tng hp khi lng (%)
( ) ( )
=
( ) ( )
( ) ( )
=
( ) ( )
3. Ch s khng gian
Ch s tng hp gi c khng gian ca th trng A so vi th trng B:
( | )
Ch s tng hp khi lng khng gian ca th trng A so vi th trng B:

( | )
+
+
4. H thng ch s
L mt dy cc ch s c mi lin h vi nhau hp thnh mt ng thc nht nh.
C s xy dng mt h thng ch s l da vo cc phng trnh kinh t.
.
.
5. Vn dng phng php ch s phn tch bin ng ca ch tiu trung bnh

v tng lng bin ca tiu thc
5.1 Phn tch bin ng ca gi thnh trung bnh
Gi:
,
,
,
l gi thnh k gc v k bo co
l gi thnh bnh qun k gc v k bo co
l sn lng k gc v k bo co
Trong :
=
Ta c h thng ch s:
1
0
1
01
01
.
1 1
1 1
0 1
1
1
1
=
.
0 0
0 1
0 0
0
1
0
5.2 Phn tch bin ng ca tng chi ph sn xut c s dng gi thnh trung
bnh
Tng chi ph sn xut = Gi thnh TB 1 n v SP . S SP SX
Tng qut:
=
S dng h thng ch s ta c:
1 1
1
=
.
0 0
0
M rng:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Gi c * Khi lng SP SX = Gi tr SX
Gi c * Lng hng ha tiu th = Mc tiu th hng ha
NSL bnh qun * S CN = Gi tr SX (hoc Khi lng SP SX)
Tin lng bnh qun * S CN = Tng qu lng
Gi thnh 1 n v SP * S lng SP = Chi ph SX
6. NS bnh qun la 1 ha * Din tch = Sn lng la
CHNG 7: IU TRA CHN MU

1. Sai s :
Trong :
: l sai s do chn mu
: l sai s khng do chn mu
2. c lng trung bnh ca mt ch tiu

C hon li:
=
Khng hon li:
3. c lng t l ca mt ch tiu
C hon li:
=
(1 )
Khng hon li:

=
(1 )
4. Xc nh phm vi sai s
=
= 99,73%
= 99%
= 2,58
= 95,5%
= 95%
= 90%
=3
=2
= 1,96
= 1,645
DNG TON TNH GI THNH BNH QUN

Gi: xi l gi thnh n v sn phm
fi l sn lng sn phm sn xut
di l t trng sn lng sn xut d = . 100 (%)
xifi l chi ph sn xut
(nu fi l khi lng sn phm tiu th th xifi l doanh s bn hoc doanh thu)
Dng 1: bi cho xi v fi (s dng s bnh qun gia quyn)
Dng 2: bi cho xi v xifi (s dng s trung bnh iu ha)
Dng 3: bi cho xi v di
100
Chng minh:
Ta c
. 100 (%)
==
. 100
100
=
=
S dng s bnh qun gia quyn, ta c :
++
. 100
+ +
. 100
(
+ +
=
. 100
=
+
+ +
100
Hay:
=
Lu : n v ca
100
trong cng thc trn l %.
(
100
BI TP DNG TON GI THNH BNH QUN

Bi 1 (bi 25 trang 12, phn bi tp, gio trnh Thy Hng):
Doanh nghip A
Gi thnh n v
Chi ph sn xut
Qu
sn phm (1000)
(tr)
( )
I
II
III
IV
Doanh nghip B
Gi thnh n v T trng sn lng
sn phm (1000) tng qu so vi c
nm (%)
( ) ( )
20
21,4
19,2
18,5
10,000
13,910
13,824
15,355
( )
19,5
20,2
20,4
19,8
( )
( )
16
35
30
19
( )
Tnh gi thnh bnh qun 1 vsp ca tng doanh nghip?

Gi:
( ),
( )
( ),
( )
( )
ln lt l gi thnh n v sn phm ca DNA v DNB.

ln lt l sn lng sn phm sn xut ca DNA v DNB.
l t trng sn lng sn xut tng qu so vi c nm ca DNB.

( ) l
( )
chi ph sn xut ca DNA.
Gi thnh bnh qun 1 vsp ca doanh nghip A l:
( )
( ) ( )
( ) ( )
( )
10000 + 13910 + 13824 + 15355 53089

=
10000 13910 13824 15355
2700
+
+
+
20
21,4
19,2
18,5
= 19,66
Gi thnh bnh qun 1 vsp ca doanh nghip B l:
( )
( )
( )
100
= 20,072
19,5.16 + 20,2.35 + 20,4.30 + 19,8.19

100

Bi 2:
X nghip X
Gi thnh n T trng sn lng
v sn phm tng qu trong nm
(1000)
(%)
Qu
( )
I
II
III
IV
( )
19,5
20,2
20,4
29,8
X nghip Y
Gi thnh n T trng sn lng
v sn phm
tng qu trong
(1000)
nm (%)
( )
16
35
30
19
( )
( )
20,0
21,4
19,2
18,5
( )
( )
18
36
29
17
( )
Tnh gi thnh bnh qun 1 vsp ca tng doanh nghip?

( ),
Gi:
( ),
( ),
ln lt l gi thnh n v sn phm ca XN X v XN Y.
( )
( )
ln lt l sn lng sn phm sn xut ca XN X v XN Y.
ln lt l t trng sn lng sn xut tng qu so vi c nm ca

DN X v DN Y.
( )
Gi thnh bnh qun 1 vsp ca x nghip X l:
( )
( )
( )
100
= 21,972
19,5.16 + 20,2.35 + 20,4.30 + 19,8.19

100

Gi thnh bnh qun 1 vsp ca x nghip Y l:
( )
( )
( )
100
= 20,064
20.18 + 21,4.36 + 19,2.29 + 18,5.17

100

Bi 3 (Cu 1 (3 im), 26, Trong tp , chnh sa):

Hai doanh nghip cng sn xut loi sn phm X. Ti liu v tnh hnh sn xut loi
sn phm ny ca 2 doanh nghip nm 1997 nh sau:
Doanh nghip A
Doanh nghip B
Gi thnh n v Chi ph sn xut Gi thnh n v T trng sn lng
Qu
sn phm
(1000)
sn phm
tng qu so vi c
(1000)
(1000)
nm (%)
( )
I
II
III
IV
( ) ( )
20,0
21,0
19,0
17,0
1000,0
1386,0
1387,0
1394,0
( )
19,0
20,0
20,0
19,0
( )
( )
16,0
35,0
30,0
19,0
( )
Yu cu:
1) Hy tnh v so snh gi thnh bnh qun 1 vsp nm 1997 ca 2 doanh nghip trn?
2) Hy tnh h s bin thin v gi thnh vsp ca tng doanh nghip v cho nhn xt.
Bit thm rng sn lng sn phm c nm ca doanh nghip B l 300000 sn
phm.
Gii:
1) Gi:
( ),
ln lt l gi thnh n v sn phm ca DNA v DNB.

( ) , ( ) ln lt l sn lng sn phm sn xut ca DNA v DNB.
( ) l t trng sn lng sn xut tng qu so vi c nm ca DNB.
( ) ( ) l chi ph sn xut ca DNA.
Gi thnh bnh qun 1 vsp ca doanh nghip A l:
( )
( )
( ) ( )
( ) ( )
( )
1000 + 1386 + 1387 + 1394 5167

=
1000 1386 1387 1394
271
+
+
+
20
21
19
17

= 19,066
Gi thnh bnh qun 1 vsp ca doanh nghip B l:

( )
( )
( )
100
= 19,05
19.16 + 20.35 + 18.30 + 19.19

100

Vy gi thnh bnh qun 1 vsp nm 1997 ca doanh nghip A cao hn doanh

nghip B.
2) Sn lng sn phm c nm ca doanh nghip B l 300000 sn phm.
( )
= 300000 (sn phm)
Doanh nghip A:
Qu
Gi thnh
n v sn
phm
(1000)
Chi ph
sn xut
(1000)
Sn lng
(1000 sn phm)
( )
( )
( ) ( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( ) ( )
( )
20
1000
50
0,872356
43,6178
II
21
1386
66
3,740356
246,863496
III
19
1387
73
0,004356
0,317988
IV
17
1394
82
4,268356
350,005192
( )
= 19,066
( )
( )
= 271
( )
= 640,804476
lch chun:
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
640,804476
= 1,5405
271 1
H s bin thin ca doanh nghip A:

( )
( )
( )
( )
. 100 =
1,5405
. 100 = 8,0798 %
19,066
( )
Doanh nghip B:
Qu
Gi thnh T trng
n v sn
sn
phm
lng
(1000) tng qu
so vi c
nm (%)
Sn lng
(1000 sn phm)
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( ).
( )
100
19
16
48
0,0025
0,12
II
20
35
105
0,9025
94,7625
III
18
30
90
1,1025
99,225
IV
19
19
57
0,0025
0,12
( )
= 19,05
( )
( )
= 300
( )
( )
= 194,2275
lch chun:
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
194,2275
= 0,8059
300 1
H s bin thin ca doanh nghip B:

( )
( )
( )
. 100 =
0,8059
. 100 = 4,2304 %
19,05
Vy ( ) > ( ) , chng t gi thnh 1 vsp ca doanh nghip A qua tng qu chnh

lch nhiu hn so vi doanh nghip B.
BI TP CHNG CH S
Bi 1: Ti liu v tnh hnh sn xut 3 loi sn phm A, B, C ca doanh nghip X 6
thng u nm 2010:
Sn phm
Chi ph sn xut qu II
(triu ng)
A
B
C
1142
2855
1713
Gi thnh n v sn phm
qu II tng (+) gim (-) so
vi qu I (%)
-2
+1,5
+2,1
=
0,98
1,015
1,021
Tng chi ph qu II so vi qu I tng 14,2%.

a. Tnh ch s gi thnh chung cho ba mt hng A, B, C khi so snh qu II so vi qu I.
b. Tnh ch s tng hp v khi lng hng ha A, B, C khi so snh qu II so vi qu I.
c. Phn tch bin ng chi ph sn xut nh hng bi cc yu t c lin quan.
Gii:
Gi:
, ln lt l gi thnh ba mt hng A, B, C ca qu I v qu II.
, ln lt l khi lng hng ha ca qu I v qu II.
a. Ch s gi thnh chung cho ba mt hng A, B, C khi so snh qu II so vi qu I l:
=
1142 + 2855 + 1713

= 1,0095
1
1
1
. 1142 +
. 2855 +
. 1713
0,98
1,021
1,015
Vy gi thnh chung cho ba mt hng A, B, C qu II tng 0,95% so vi qu I.

b. Ch s tng hp v khi lng hng ha A, B, C khi so snh qu II so vi qu I l:
T cu a ta tnh c:
1142 + 2855 + 1713

5710
=
=
=
= 5656
1,0095
1,0095
Mc khc theo bi, ta c:
= 1,142
5710
=
= 5000
1,142 1,142

5656
=
= 1,1312
5000
Vy khi lng hng ha A, B, C qu II tng 13,12% so vi qu I.
c. Phn tch bin ng chi ph sn xut:
= .
=
.
5710 5710 5656
=
.
5000 5656 5000
1,142 = 1,0095 . 1,1312
114,2 % = 100,95 % . 113,12 %
Tng gim tuyt i :
[5710 5000] = [5710 5656] + [5656 5000]

(710
) = (54
Tng gim tng i :

[
) + (656
[5710 5000] [5710 5656] [5656 5000]

=
+
5000
5000
5000
(0,142) = (0,0108) + (0,1312)
14,2 % = 1,08 % + 13,12 %
Nhn xt : Tng chi ph sn xut ba mt hng A, B, C qu II so vi qu I bng 114,2%,
tc l tng 14,2%, tng ng tng 710 triu ng l do nh hng ca hai nhn t:
- Do gi thnh chung cho ba mt hng A, B, C qu II so vi qu I tng 0,95%, lm cho
chi ph sn xut tng 1,08%, tng ng tng 54 triu ng.
- Do khi lng hng ha A, B, C qu II so vi qu I tng 13,12%, lm cho chi ph sn
xut tng 13,12%, tng ng tng 656 triu ng.
Bi 2: C tnh hnh thc hin gi thnh 1 x nghip cng ty nh sau:
Tn
sn
phm
A
B
C
T trng v CPSX ca tng loi sp trong

tng CPSX
KH (%)
TH (%)
=
. 100
40
50
10
36
50,6
13,4
. 100
T l gim gi
thnh n v sp
(-) so vs k
hoch (%)
-10
-8
-5
0,9
0,92
0,95
a. Tnh ch s gi chung v gi thnh vsp ca c 3 loi sp ni trn (khi so snh

thc t vs k hoch).
b. K hoch gim gi thnh x nghip vt mc bao nhiu? Tnh mc tit kim chi
ph do gim gi thnh n v sn phm em li? Bit thm rng: tng chi ph sn
xut thc hin l 124 triu ng.
Gii:
Gi
, ln lt l gi thnh k hoch v thc t
, ln lt l khi lng hng ha k hoch v thc t
a) Ch s gi chung v gi thnh vsp ca c 3 loi sp ni trn (khi so snh thc t
vs k hoch) l:
1
1
=
=
=
=
=
1
1
1
= 0,9165
1
1
1
. 0,36 +
. 0,506 +
. 0,134
0,9
0,92
0,95
Vy gi thnh vsp thc t gim 8,35% so vi k hoch.
b) K hoch gim gi thnh ca x nghip hon thnh vt mc l 8,35%.
Tng chi ph sn xut thc hin l:
= 124 ( )
124
=
=
= 135,2973 ( )
0,9165
Tng gim tuyt i (gi thnh):
= 124 135,2973 = 11,2973 (
Vy mc tit kim chi ph do gim gi thnh n v l 11,2973 triu ng.

Bi 3: Tnh hnh sn xut ca hai phn xng ca mt x nghip nh sau, bit rng sn
lng thc t so vi k hoch tng 10,64%.
Phn xng
Sn lng k
T l gim cng
=
hoch (chic)
nhn thc t so vi
k hoch (%)
A
1000
-10
0,9
B
800
-5
0,95
a.
b.
c.
Gii:
Gi
Phn tch bin ng cng nhn ton x nghip k bo co so vi k hoch.

Tnh ch s nng sut lao ng bnh qun k bo co so vi k hoch.
Phn tch bin ng sn lng nh hng bi cc yu t c lin quan.
,
l nng sut lao ng bnh qun mt cng nhn k hoch v k bo co
, l s cng nhn k hoch v k bo co

(Khi lng sn phm SX (sn lng) = NSL bnh qun * S CN)
a) Phn tch bin ng cng nhn ton x nghip k bo co so vi k hoch:
.
.
=
=
=
Vy cng nhn k bo co gim 8%.

b) T cu a, ta c:
=
0,9.1000 + 0,95.800
= 0,92
1000 + 800
= 0,92 . (1000 + 800) = 1656
Theo bi ta c:
=
=
= 110,64 % = 1,1064
= 1,1064 . (1000 + 800) = 1991,52
Ch s nng sut lao ng bnh qun k bo co so vi k hoch l:
1991,52
=
=
= 1,2
1656
Vy nng sut lao ng bnh qun k bo co tng 20% so vi k hoch.
c) Ta c h thng ch s th hin bin ng ca sn lng SPSX :
= .
=
.
1991,52 1991,52 1656
=
.
1800
1656 1800
1,1064 = 1,2 . 0,92
110,64 % = 120% . 92%
Tng gim tuyt i :
[1991,52 1800] = [1991,52 1656] + [1656 1800]

(191,52 ) = (335,52 ) + (144 )
Tng gim tng i :
[
] [
]
[
]
=
+
[1991,52 1800] [1991,52 1656] [1656 1800]
=
+
1800
1800
1800
(0,1064) = (0,1864) + (0,08)
10,64 % = 18,64% + (8%)
Nhn xt : Sn lng SPSX ca hai phn xng thc t so vi k hoch bng

110,64%, tc l tng 10,64%, tng ng tng 191,52 chic l do nh hng ca hai
nhn t:
- Do nng sut lao ng bnh qun ca k bo co so vi k hoch tng 20%, lm
cho sn lng SPSX tng 18,64%, tng ng tng 335,52 chic.
- Do s cng nhn ca k bo co so vi k hoch gim 8%, lm cho sn lng
SPSX gim 8%, tng ng gim 144 chic.
Bi 4: C s liu v gi c v lng hng ha tiu th ti mt th trng nh sau:
Nm 2011
Nm 2012
Lng
Gi n v Lng hng Gi n v
Sn phm n v tnh
hng tiu
(1000)
tiu th
(1000)
th
A
Kg
20
2145
20,5
2500
B
Lt
25
1500
28
1560
C
Mt
36
2450
35
3010
D
Gi
11
1126
10
1523
E
Ci
16
256
16,5
360
a. Tnh ch s chung v gi c ca 5 mt hng trn.
b. Tnh ch s chung v lng hng ha tiu th ca 5 mt hng trn.
c. Phn tch s thay i tng mc tiu th hng ha ca 5 mt hng nm 2012 so
vi nm 2011 do nh hng bi 2 nhn t: gi c v lng hng ha tiu th.
Gii:
Gi , ln lt l gi c 5 mt hng ca nm 2011 v nm 2012.
, ln lt l lng hng ha tiu th ca 5 mt hng ca nm 2011 v nm
2012.
a. Ch s chung v gi c ca 5 mt hng trn l:
20,5.2500 + 28.1560 + 35.3010 + 10.1523 + 16,5.360

=
=
20.2500 + 25.1560 + 36.3010 + 11.1523 + 16.360

221450
=
= 1,0072 = 100,72%
219873
Vy gi c 5 mt hng ca nm 2012 so vi nm 2011 tng 0,72%.
b. Ch s chung v lng hng ha tiu th ca 5 mt hng trn l:
2500.20 + 1560.25 + 3010.36 + 1523.11 + 360.16

=
=
2145.20 + 1500.25 + 2450.36 + 1126.11 + 256.16

219873
=
= 1,1879 = 118,79%
185082
Vy lng hng ha tiu th ca 5 mt hng ca nm 2012 so vi nm 2011 tng
18,79%.
c. Phn tch s thay i tng mc tiu th hng ha ca 5 mt hng nm 2012 so vi

nm 2011 do nh hng bi 2 nhn t: gi c v lng hng ha tiu th.
Ta c h thng ch s:
= .
=
.
221450 221450 219873
=
.
185082 219873 185082
1,1965 = 1,0072 . 1,1879
119,65 % = 100,72% . 118,79%
(+19,65%)
(+0,72%)
(+18,79%)
Tng gim tuyt i :
[221450 185082] = [221450 219873] + [219873 185082]

(36368 ) = (1577 ) + (34791 )
Tng gim tng i :
[
] [
]
[
]
=
+
[221450 185082] [221450 219873] [219873 185082]
=
+
185082
185082
185082
(0,1965) = (0,0085) + (0,1879)
(19,65 %) = (0,85%) + (18,79%)
Nhn xt : Tng mc tiu th hng ha ca 5 mt hng nm 2012 so vi nm 2011
bng 119,65 %, tc l tng 19,65 %, tng ng tng 36368 ngn ng l do nh
hng ca hai nhn t:
- Do gi c 5 mt hng ca nm 2012 so vi nm 2011 tng 0,72%, lm cho tng
mc tiu th hng ha tng 0,85%, tng ng tng 1577 ngn ng.
- Do lng hng ha tiu th ca 5 mt hng ca nm 2012 so vi nm 2011 tng
18,79%, lm cho tng mc tiu th hng ha tng 18,79%, tng ng tng
34791 ngn ng.
Bi 5: Tnh hnh bin ng qu lng ca 4 phn xng qua hai nm ca mt x
nghip nh sau, bit rng tng qu lng nm 2008 tng 10% so vi nm 2007
Phn
Tng qu tin
T trng tng qu T trng tng s cng
xng lng nm 2008
lng nm 2007 nhn nm 2008 so vi
(tr)
(%)
nm 2007 (%)
=
A
264
20
(%) 100(%)
16
=
1,16
B
C
D
132
528
396
15
35
30
20
10
25
1,2
1,1
1,25
= 1320
a. Phn tch bin ng s cng nhn nm 2008 so vi nm 2007.
b. Phn tch bin ng tng qu lng qua hai nm.
Gii:
Gi:
, ln lt l tin lng bnh qun mt cng nhn nm 2007 v nm 2008
, ln lt l s cng nhn nm 2007 v nm 2008
(Tng qu lng = tin lng bnh qun 1 CN * S CN)
Theo bi ta c:
1320
= 1,1
=
=
= 1200
1,1
1,1
Qu tin lng nm 2007 ca tng phn xng c tnh nh sau :
=
a. Bin ng ca s cng nhn qua 2 nm l:
.
=
.( .
= 1,16.0,2 + 1,2.0,15 + 1,1.0,35 + 1,25.0,3 = 1,172
Vy s cng nhn nm 2008 tng 17,2% so vi nm 2007.

b. T cu a, ta c
=
= 1,172 . (1200) = 1406,4
Phn tch bin ng Qu lng:

= .
=
.
1320
1320 1406,4
=
.
1200 1406,4 1200
1,1 = 0,9385 . 1,172
110 % = 93,85 % . 117,2 %
Tng gim tuyt i :
[1320 1200] = [1320 1406,4] + [1406,4 1200]
(120
Tng gim tng i :

[
) = (86,4
) + (206,4
[1320 1200] [1320 1406,4] [1406,4 1200]

=
+
1200
1200
1200
(0,1) = (0,072) + (0,172)

10 % = 7,2 % + 17,2 %
Nhn xt: Tng qu lng ca 4 phn xng nm 2008 so vi nm 2007 bng 110%,
tc l tng 10%, tng ng tng 120 triu ng, l do nh hng ca hai nhn t:
Do tin lng bnh qun 1 cng nhn ca nm 2008 so vi nm 2007 gim
6,15%, lm cho tng qu lng gim 7,2%, tng ng gim 86,4 triu ng.
Do s cng nhn nm 2008 so vi nm 2007 tng 17,2%, lm cho tng qu lng
tng 17,2%, tng ng tng 206,4 triu ng.
Bi 6:
Ti liu v gi c v khi lng hng ha tiu th ca 3 mt hng ti hai thnh ph
trong cng mt k nh sau:
Loi
Thnh ph X
Thnh ph Y
hng
n gi
Lng hng tiu
n gi
Lng hng tiu
(1000/kg)
th (tn)
(1000/kg)
th (tn)
A
5,0
250
4,8
262
B
4,6
430
4,9
392
C
6,9
187
6,8
213
Yu cu: Bng phng php ch s hy so snh gi c, khi lng hng tiu th ca 3
mt hng trn gia hai thnh ph?
Gii:
Ch s tng hp gi c khng gian ca thnh ph X so vi thnh ph Y:
=
=
+
( | )
Theo pi ta c:
= ( ) + ( ) = 250 + 262 = 512
= ( ) + ( ) = 430 + 392 = 822
= ( ) + ( ) = 187 + 213 = 400
5.512 + 4,6.822 + 6,9.400

( | )=
=
= 0,9886
4,8.512 + 4,9.822 + 6,8.400

Vy gi thnh ca thnh ph X thp hn so vi thnh ph Y 1,14%.
Ch s tng hp khi lng khng gian ca thnh ph X so vi thnh ph Y:
+
=
( | ) =
+
Theo pi ta c:
5.250 + 4,8.262
( )
( )+
( ) ( )
=
=
= 4,8976
250 + 262
( )+
( )
4,6.430 + 4,9.392
( )
( )+
( ) ( )
=
=
= 4,743
430 + 392
( )+
( )
6,9.187 + 6,8.213
( )
( )+
( ) ( )
=
=
= 6,8467
187 + 213
( )+
( )
250.4,8976 + 430.4,743 + 187.6,8476

( | )=
=
= 0,9877
262.4,8976 + 392.4,743 + 213.6,8476

Vy sn lng ca thnh ph X thp hn so vi thnh ph Y 1,23%.
Bi 7: X nghip c 3 phn xng cng sn xut mt loi sn phm T
K gc
Phn xng
K bo co
Sn lng (ci) Gi thnh vsp Sn lng (ci

(ng/ci)
Gi thnh vsp
(ng/ci)
1000
10
8000
2500
12
3000
11,5
4500
13
1000
12,5
8000
12000
Yu cu:
a) Phn tch s bin ng ca gi thnh trung bnh do nh hng bi cc nhn t
lin quan.
b) Phn tch s bin ng ca tng chi ph sn xut c lin quan n bin ng ca
gi thnh trung bnh.
Gii:
Gi: , l gi thnh k gc v k bo co
, l gi thnh bnh qun k gc v k bo co
, l sn lng k gc v k bo co
Trong :
=
=
=
Ta c:
10.1000 + 12.2500 + 13.4500

=
=
= 12,31
8000
10.8000 + 12.3000 + 13.1000

= 10,75
12000
9.8000 + 11,5.3000 + 12,5.1000

=
= 9,92
12000
a) Phn tch s bin ng ca gi thnh trung bnh, ta c h thng ch s:
=
9,92
12,31
01
01
9,92
10,75
10,75 12,31
0,806 = 0,9228 . 0,873

80,6 % = 92,28% . 87,3%
(19,4%) (7,72%) (12,7%)
Nhn xt: Gi thnh trung bnh k bo co so vi k gc bng 80,6%, tc l gim
19,4%.
b) Phn tch s bin ng ca tng chi ph sn xut, ta c h thng ch s:
=
=
1 1
1
=
.
0 0
0
9,92.12000
9,92 12000
=
.
12,31.8000 12,31 8000
1,2088 = 0,806 . 1,5
120,88% = 80,6% . 150%
(+20,88%) = (19,4%) . (+50%)
Tng gim tuyt i :

[
] = [ 1 0]
[9,92.12000 12,31.8000]
= [9,9167 12,31]. 12000 + [12000 8000]. 12,31
(20560 ) = (28680 ) + (49240
Tng gim tng i :
[ ] [ 1 0] 1
[ ] 0
=
+
[9,92.12000 12,31.8000]
12,31.8000
[9,9167 12,31]. 12000 [12000 8000]. 12,31
=
+
12,31.8000
12,31.8000
(0,2088) = (0,2912) + (0,5)

20,88 % = 29,12% + 50%
Nhn xt: Tng chi ph sn xut ca 3 phn xng k bo co so vi k gc tng
20,88%, tng ng tng 20560 triu ng, l do nh hng bi hai nhn t:
- Do gi thnh trung bnh ca 3 phn xng gim 19,4% lm cho tng chi ph sn
xut gim 29,12%, tng ng gim 28680 triu ng.
- Do sn lng sn phm sn xut ca 3 phn xng k bo co so vi k gc
tng 50%, tng ng tng 49240 triu ng.
BI TP DY S THI GIAN
Bi 1: C ti liu v doanh s (t ng) mt cng ty qua cc nm nh sau
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
23,5
6,7
7,1
8,5
9,0
11,25
11,7
14,00
15,4
18,10
Ch : D liu nm 2013 ch dng d bo.
a. Lp bng thng k tnh lng tng tuyt i, lng tng tuyt i nh gc, tc
pht trin lin hon, tc pht trin nh gc, gi tr tuyt i 1% tng
(gim) qua cc nm, lng tng tuyt i bnh qun ca doanh s.
b. Lp phng trnh hi quy tuyn tnh th hin doanh s theo thi gian.
c. Dng 3 phng php d bo n gin (tc pht trin bnh qun, lng tng
gim bnh qun, hm xu th tuyn tnh) hy d bo doanh s 2013. So snh vi
s liu thc t. Cho nhn xt ngn gn gia cc phng php.
Gii :
a) Bng thng k tnh:
Lng tng tuyt i lin hon : =
, = 2,3
Lng tng tuyt i nh gc : = , = 2,3
Tc pht trin lin hon :
Tc pht trin nh gc :
,
,
= 2,3
= 2,3
Gi tr tuyt i 1% tng (gim) qua cc nm :
Lng tng tuyt i bnh qun ca doanh s :
= 2,3
Nm
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
6,7
7,1
8,5
9,0
11,25
11,7
14,00
15,4
18,10
0,4
1,4
0,5
2,25
0,45
2,3
1,4
2,7
0,4
1,8
2,3
4,55
7,3
8,7
11,4
(%)
(%)
105,97 119,72 105,88
125
104
119,66
110
117,53
105,97 126,86 134,33 167,91 174,62 208,95 229,85 270,15

0,154
0,067 0,071 0,085
0,09 0,1125 0,117
0,14
18,1 6,7
=
= 1,4625
1
91
b) Phng trnh hi quy tuyn tnh th hin doanh s theo thi gian c dng :
=
+
Trong :
c xc nh bng h phng trnh

+
( 1)
Theo bi ta c bng d liu:

Nm
Doanh s (t ng)
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
6,7
7,1
8,5
9,0
11,25
11,7
14,00
15,4
18,1
= 101,75
yt
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
= 45
6,7
14,2
25,5
36
56,25
70,2
98
123,2
162,9
= 592,95
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
81
= 285
Thay d liu vo h phng trnh (1) ta c:

=
101,75 = 9
592,95 = 45
+ 45
+ 285
= 4,2889
= 1,4033
= 4,2889 + 1,4033
c) D bo doanh s nm 2013:
Da vo tc pht trin bnh qun
Ta c:
=
18,1
= 1,1323
6,7
Vi tm xa d bo L = 1, doanh s d bo nm 2013 l:
= .
= 18,1 . (1,1323) = 20,49463 (
Da vo lng tng tuyt i bnh qun
Ta c:
18,1 6,7
=
=
= 1,4625
1
91
Vi tm xa d bo L = 1, doanh s d bo nm 2013 l:
=
. = 18,1 + (1,4625). 1 = 19,5625 (
Da vo hm xu th tuyn tnh
Ta c hm xu th tuyn tnh: = 4,2889 + 1,4033
Nm 2013, t = 10, doanh s d bo l:
= 4,2889 + 1,4033 . 10 = 18,3219 (
Thc t, doanh s nm 2013 l 23,5 t ng, cao hn s liu d bo c. Da vo

3 phng php ta thy d bo theo tc pht trin bnh qun l gn ng vi thc t
nht.
Bi 2: Doanh s ca mt cng ty xy dng trong mi hai thng nm 1997 c trnh
by trong bng di y:
Thng
Mt Hai Ba
T Nm
Su
By Tm
Chn
Mi Mi Mi
Mt Hai
Doanh s
7,5 9,5 12,5 8,5
9
26,5 18,5 9,5
9
12,5
(t ng)
a) Ngoi suy hm thu th tuyn tnh thch hp bng cch dng = 0 .
b) D on doanh s ca cng ty vo thng 1 nm 1998.
Gii :
a) Hm hi quy tuyn tnh th hin doanh s theo thi gian c dng :
=
+
Trong : , c xc nh bng h phng trnh ( = 0)
19,5
=
(1)
=
Doanh s (t ng)
Thng
Mt
Hai
Ba
T
Nm
Su
By
Tm
Chn
Mi
Mi Mt
Mi Hai
7,5
9,5
12,5
8,5
9
26,5
18,5
9,5
9
12,5
19,5
11,5
= 154
yt
-11
-9
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
=0
-82,5
-85,5
-87,5
-42,5
-27
-26,5
18,5
28,5
45
87,5
175,5
126,5
= 130
121
81
49
25
9
1
1
9
25
49
81
121
= 572
11,5

=
154 = 12
130 = 572
= 12,8333
= 0,2273
= 12,8333 + 0,2273
b) Thng 1 nm 1998, t = 13, doanh s d bo l :

)
(
) = 12,8333 + 0,2273 . 13 = 15,7882 (
Bi 3: S liu v quyt ton thu ngn sch Nh nc. (Ngun tng cc thng k)
T ng
Nm
Tng
thu
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
90749
123860
152274
190928
228287
279472
315915
430549
454786
588428
704267
Ch : Ch s dng s liu 2001 2010. Nm 2011 dng d bo.

a. Lp bng thng k bao gm cc ni dung: Tc pht trin lin hon, lng
tng gim lin hon.
b. Lp phng trnh hi quy tuyn tnh th hin xu th ngun thu ngn sch nh
nc theo thi gian.
c. Dng 3 phng php d bo n gin (tc pht trin bnh qun, lng tng
gim bnh qun, hm xu th tuyn tnh) hy d bo ngun thu 2011. So snh vi
s liu thc t. Cho nhn xt ngn gn gia cc phng php.
Gii:
a) Bng thng k tnh:
Lng tng gim lin hon :
Tc pht trin lin hon :
Nm
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
= 2,3
= 2,3
Tng thu (t ng)

90749
123860
152274
190928
228287
279472
315915
430549
454786
588428
(%)
33111
28414
38654
37359
51185
36443
114634
24237
133642
136,48
122,94
125,38
119,56
122,42
113,04
136,28
105,63
129,28
b) Hm hi quy tuyn tnh th hin xu th ngun thu ngn sch nh nc theo thi gian
c dng:
=
+
Trong : , c xc nh bng h phng trnh
(
= 0)
=
(1)
=
Tng thu (t ng)
Nm
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
90749
123860
152274
190928
228287
279472
315915
430549
454786
588428
yt
-9
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
-816741
-867020
-761370
-572784
-228287
279472
947745
2152745
3183502
5295852
= 2855248
=0
81
49
25
9
1
1
9
25
49
81
= 330
= 8613114
=
2855248 = 10
8613114 = 330
= 285524,8
= 26100,34545
= 285524,8 + 26100,34545.
c) D bo ngun thu 2011

Da vo tc pht trin bnh qun
Ta c:
=
588428
= 2,5464
90749
Vi tm xa d bo L = 1, ngun thu d bo nm 2011 l:
= .
= 588428 . (2,5464) = 1498373 ( )
Da vo lng tng tuyt i bnh qun
Ta c:

588428 90749
=
= 55297,67
1
10 1
Vi tm xa d bo L = 1, ngun thu d bo nm 2011 l:
=
= +
. = 588428 + (55297,67). 1 = 643725,67 ( )
Da vo hm xu th tuyn tnh
Ta c hm xu th tuyn tnh: = 285524,8 + 26100,34545.
Nm 2011, t = 11, ngun thu d bo l:
= 285524,8 + 26100,34545.11 = 572628,6 ( )
Thc t, ngun thu nm 2011 l 704267 t ng, ta thy da vo 3 phng php d
bo th d bo theo lng tng tuyt i bnh qun l gn ng nht vi thc t.
Bi 4: Ti liu mt doanh nghip sn xut cng nghip nm 1997 nh sau:
CH TIU
Qu I
Qu II Qu III Qu IV
Qu lng k hoch (tr)
600
620
650
700
Phn trm thc hin k hoch qu lng (%)
103,0
105,68 109,85 105,75
S cng nhn ngy u qu (ngi)
404
420
420
430
Gi tr sn xut thc t (tr)
7416,0 7854,0 8187,5 8248,5
Ngy 1-1-1998 doanh nghip c 416 cng nhn.
a) Tnh NSL bnh qun 1 cng nhn tng qu v c nm?
b) So snh 6 thng cui nm vi 6 thng u nm v cc ch tiu: Tng qu lng, s
lng cng nhn, tin lng bnh qun 1 cng nhn v cho nhn xt?
c) Xc nh % thc hin k hoch qu lng c nm 1997 v cho nhn xt?
Gii:
a) Ta c:

NSL bnh qun 1 cng nhn =

Mc khc:
S cng nhn trung bnh qu I:
= 412
S cng nhn trung bnh qu II:
= 420
S cng nhn trung bnh qu III:
= 425
S cng nhn trung bnh qu IV:
= 423
S cng nhn trung bnh c nm:
1
1
= 420
7416
= 18
412
7854
=
= 18,7
420
8187,5
= 19,26
425
8248,5
=
= 19,5
423
7416 + 7854 + 8187,5 + 8248,5

1
=
420
= 75,49
b) Tng qu lng, s lng cng nhn, tin lng bnh qun 1 cng nhn 6 thng
u nm l:
Tng qu lng thc t:
= ( ).
( )+
( ).
( ) = 600.1,03 + 620.1,0568 = 1273,216 ( )
S lng cng nhn trung bnh:
404
420
+ 420 +
2 = 416
= 2
31
Tin lng bnh qun 1 cng nhn:
1273,216
=
=
= 3,06
416
Tng qu lng, s lng cng nhn, tin lng bnh qun 1 cng nhn 6 thng
cui nm l:
Tng qu lng thc t:
= ( ).
( )+
( ).
( ) = 650.1,0985 + 700.1,0575
= 1454,275 ( )
S lng cng nhn trung bnh:
420
416
+ 430 +
2
2 = 424
=
31
Tin lng bnh qun 1 cng nhn:
1273,216
=
=
= 3,43
424
Nhn xt: C 3 ch tiu tng qu lng, s lng cng nhn, tin lng bnh qun
1 cng nhn 6 thng cui nm u cao hn 6 thng u nm.
c) Phn trm thc hin k hoch qu lng c nm 1997 l:

( )
( )
. 100
( )
+ ( ).
( )+
( ).
( )
. 100
( )+
( )+
( )+
( )
600.1,03 + 620.1,0568 + 650.1,0985 + 700.1,0575
=
. 100
600 + 620 + 650 + 700
= 106,13 (%)
=
( ).
( )
( ).
( )
Bi 5: C ti liu ca mt cng ty dt trong hai thng u nm 2012 nh sau:

Thng 1
Thng 2
1. Tng qu lng cng nhn (triu ng)
7248
7502
2. S cng nhn ngy u thng (ngi)
600
3. Bin ng cng nhn trong thng:
- Ngy 05/01 gim: 1
- Ngy 15/01 tng: 7
- Ngy 24/01 tng: 4
- Ngy 05/02 tng: 5
- Ngy 18/02 gim: 3
- Ngy 24/02 gim: 13
Khi lng sn phm thng 2 so vi thng 1 tng 6,04% tc l tng 36482m (quy ra
mt chun).
Yu cu:
a. So snh tin lng trung bnh mt cng nhn thng 2 so vi thng 1.
b. So snh nng sut lao ng trung bnh mt cng nhn thng 2 so vi thng 1.
Gii:
Gi l s cng nhn ca cng ty.
, ln lt l khi lng sn phm thng 1 v thng 2.
Ta c bng bin ng s cng nhn ca cng ty nh sau :
S cng nhn
S ngy
Ngy
( )
( )
01/01 04/01
600
4
05/01 14/01
599
10
Thng 1
15/01 23/01
606
9
24/01 31/01
610
8
( )
Thng 2
01/02 04/02
05/02 17/02
18/02 23/02
24/02 28/02
610
615
612
599
4
13
6
5
( )
= 31
= 28
S cng nhn trung bnh thng 1 v thng 2 l:

( ) ( ) 600.4 + 599.10 + 606.9 + 610.8
=
=
= 604
( )
31
( ) ( ) 610.4 + 615.13 + 612.6 + 599.5
=
=
= 610,78
( )
28
a. So snh tin lng trung bnh mt cng nhn thng 2 so vi thng 1
Ta c :
7248
= 12
604
1=
2=
7502

= 12,28
610,78

2
12,28
.100 =
. 100

1
12
= 102,33% (+2,33%)
Vy tin lng trung bnh mt cng nhn thng 2 so vi thng 1 tng 2,33%, tng
ng tng 0,28 triu ng/cng nhn.
b. So snh nng sut lao ng trung bnh mt cng nhn thng 2 so vi thng 1
Theo bi ta c khi lng sn phm thng 1 v thng 2 l:
=
= 1,0604
= 36482
= 640488,6225
( )
= 604006,6225
1
604006,6225
=
= 1000,0109
604

2

2 =
2
640488,6225
=
= 1048,6404
610,78

2
1048,6404
.100 =
. 100

1
1000,0109
= 104,86% (+4,86%)

1=
Vy nng sut lao ng trung bnh mt cng nhn thng 2 so vi thng 1 tng 4,86%,
tng ng tng 48,6295 mt/cng nhn.
Bi 6: Sn lng thc (quy thc) ca tnh A qua cc nm nh sau :
- Nm 2008 bng 108,2% so vi nm 2007.
- Nm 2009 bng 113,6% so vi nm 2007.
- Nm 2010 bng 118,9% so vi nm 2007.
- Nm 2011 bng 122,3% so vi nm 2007.
Yu cu:
a. Tnh cc tc pht trin lin hon v tc pht trin trung bnh hng nm v
sn lng lng thc ca tnh A giai on t 2007 2011.
b. Nm 2011, sn lng lng thc ca tnh A l 1,146 triu tn. Hy tnh lng
tng tuyt i trung bnh hng nm v sn lng lng thc tnh A trong giai
on t 2007 2011.
Gii:
a. Theo bi, ta c cc tc pht trin nh gc:
=
=
= 108,2% = 1,082
= 113,6% = 1,136
= 118,9% = 1,189
= 122,3% = 1,223
Tc pht tin lin hon:

=
= 1,082 108,2%
1,136
=
=
= 1,0499 104,99%
1,082
1,189
=
=
= 1,0466 104,66%
1,136
1,223
=
=
= 1,0286 102,86%
1,189
Tc pht trin trung bnh hng nm v sn lng lng thc ca tnh A giai on t
2007 2011 l:
). (
). (
). (
= (1,082). (1,0499). (1,0466). (1,0286 ) = 1,0516 105,16%

b. Sn lng lng thc tnh A nm 2007 l:
1,146
=
=
= 0,937 ( )
1,223
Lng tng tuyt i trung bnh hng nm v sn lng lng thc ca tnh A giai
on t 2007 2011 l:
1,146 0,937
=
=
= 0,05225 ( ) = 52250
1
51
Bi 7: Nm 1996 a phng A t gi tr sn xut 5500 t ng. Theo k hoch nm
2006, gi tr sn xut ca a phng s t gp 2 ln so vi nm 1996. Nu nm 2002
a phng t 8220 t ng th:
a. nm 2006 hon thnh vt mc k hoch 5,5% th trong nhng nm cn li
ca k hoch 10 nm, tc tng bnh qun ca gi tr sn xut phi l bao
nhiu?
b. Nu cc nm cn li ca k hoch 10 nm, tc tng lin hon l 8%, 9%,
11%, 15% th nm 2006 tnh ny hon thnh bao nhiu phn trm (%) k hoch?
Gii:
a. Theo bi ta c:
,
,
(
) = 5500
(
) = 11000
(
) = 8220
Mc khc :
(
= 1,055
= 1,055 .
= 11605
Tc pht trin bnh qun ca gi tr sn xut giai on 2002 2006 l :

=
11605
= 1,09
8220
Tc tng bnh qun ca gi tr sn xut giai on 2002 2006 l :

= 1 = 1,09 1 = 0,09
Vy tc tng bnh qun ca gi tr sn xut trong nhng nm cn li phi l 9%.
b. Theo bi ta c:
= 8% = 0,08
=
+ 1 = 1,08
= 9% = 0,09
=
+ 1 = 1,09
= 11% = 0,11
=
+ 1 = 1,11
= 8% = 0,15
+ 1 = 1,15
Mc khc ta c
Tc pht trin bnh qun ca gi tr sn xut giai on 2002 2006 l :
=
=(
). (
=
). (
). (
). (
). (
). (
) = (1,08). (1,09). (1,11). (1,15)
= 1,5027
(
) = 1,5027. (
) = 1,5027.8220 = 12352,194 (
Phn trm hon thnh k hoch ca k hoch 10 nm l:
12352,194
(
)
=
= 1,123 = 112,3%
(
) =
11000
(
)
BI TP L THUYT PHN T V IU TRA CHN MU

Bi 1: Mt cng ty m ging cy trng, ngi ta o chiu cao ca mt loi cy sau 3
thng trng. D liu v chiu cao (cm) ca 50 cy ghi nhn c nh sau:
60
50
46
55
60
53
45
62
64
65
66
53
46
55
60
55
46
62
64
66
67
53
47
55
62
55
47
62
64
55
67
45
47
59
65
55
47
50
60
59
50
45
53
60
65
45
47
50
60
64
Yu cu:
a) Trnh by s liu theo phng php nhnh v l.
b) Phn t d liu trn thnh 5 t vi khong cch t u nhau. Lp bng phn phi
tn s, tn s tch ly, tn sut, tn sut tch ly.
c) T ti liu phn t tnh gi tr trung bnh, mode, median, lch tuyt i trung
bnh, phng sai, lch tiu chun, h s bin thin.
d) Tm tri gia v ton c.
Gii:
a) Trnh by s liu theo phng php nhnh v l
Stem Leaf
4
555566677777
5
00003333555555599
6
000000222244445556677
b) S t: k = 5
Khong cch t: =
= 4,4 5 (
Ta c bng phn phi

Chiu cao
Tr s gia
Tn s
Tn s tch
Tn sut
Tn sut
(cm)
ly
(%)
tch ly
45 50
47,5
12
12
24
24
50 55
52,5
8
20
16
40
55 60
57,5
9
29
18
58
60 65
62,5
14
43
28
86
65 - 70
67,5
7
50
14
100
Tng
50
100
c) Trung bnh:
47,5.12 + 52,5.8 + 57,5.9 + 62,5.14 + 67,5.7

=
=
= 57,1
50
T cha Mode (M0) l t c chiu cao t 60 65 cm v tn s ca t ny l ln nht.
Ta c:
+
)
14 9
14 9
5 5
= 60 + 5.
= 60 + 5.
14 9
14 7
(14 9) + (14 7)
+
5 5
5 5
= 62,08
= 25,5 T c chiu cao t 55 60 cm l t cha trung v (Me)
50
20
= 55 + 5. 2
= 57,78
9
lch tuyt i trung bnh

|
|47,5 57,1|. 12 + |52,5 57,1|. 8 + |57,5 57,1|. 9 + |62,5 57,1|. 14 + |67,5 57,1|. 7
=
50
= 6,08
=
Phng sai:
( )
(47,5 57,1) . 12 + (52,5 57,1) . 8 + (57,5 57,1) . 9 + (62,5 57,1) . 14 + (67,5 57,1) . 7
=
50
2442
=
= 48,84
50
=
lch tiu chun mu cha hiu chnh

=
=
lch tiu chun mu hiu chnh
=
48,84 = 6,98
)
1
2442
= 7,06
50 1
H s bin thin
=
. 100 =
7,06
. 100 = 12,36 %
57,1
d) Ton c:
=
= 67 45 = 22
T phn v th nht Q1
Ta c:
= 12,75 T c chiu cao t 50 55 cm l t cha Q1

1

+ .4
50
12
= 50 + 5. 4
= 50,3125
8
T phn v th ba Q3
Ta c:
= 38,25 T c chiu cao t 60 65 cm l t cha Q3

3

4
+ .
3
. 50 29
4
= 60 + 5.
= 63,0357
14
tri gia l:
=
= 63,0357 50,3125 = 12,7232
Bi 2: C ti liu v nng sut lao ng ca mt mu gm 50 cng nhn trong mt x

nghip nh sau (kg) :
Nng sut lao ng
S cng nhn (ngi)
3
34
34 38
6
38 42
9
42 46
12
46 50
8
50 54
7
54
5
Yu cu :
a. Tnh nng sut lao ng trung bnh trong x nghip.
b. Tnh mode, trung v v nng sut lao ng.
c. Tnh lch tuyt i trung bnh, phng sai v lch chun.
d. Tnh h s bin thin.
e. Nhn xt hnh dng phn phi ca d liu.
Gii:
Gi l nng sut lao ng ca cng nhn trong x nghip
l s cng nhn trong x nghip
Theo bi ta c bng d liu sau :
Nng
Tr s S cng Tn s
[ ] | |
[ ]
sut lao
gia
nhn
tch ly
ng
3
96
37,68
473,2608
32
3
-12,56
34
34 38
36
6
9
216
-8,56
51,36
439,6416
38 42
40
9
18
360
-4,56
41,04
187,1424
42 46
44
12
30
528
-0,56
6,72
3,7632
46 50
48
8
38
384
3,44
27,52
94,6688
50 54
52
7
45
364
7,44
52,08
387,4752
54
56
5
50
280
11,44
57,2
654,368
Tng
50
2228
273,6
2240,32
a. Nng sut lao ng trung bnh ca cng nhn ton x nghip :
2228
=
=
= 44,56
50
b. Mode, Median :
T c nng sut lao ng t 42 n 46 (kg/cng nhn) l t cha mode v t ny c
s lng cng nhn nhiu nht.
Ta c :
= 25,5 T cha median cng l t c nng sut lao ng t
42 n 46 (kg/cng nhn).
=
c. ,
+
)
12 9
= 42 + 4.
= 43,71
(12 9) + (12 8)
50

18
2
2
+
=
42
+
4.
= 44,33
)
12
,
|
=
=
=
|
273,6
=
= 5,472
50
)
2240,32
=
= 45,7208
1
50
(
)
1
45,7208 = 6,7617
d. H s bin thin
=
. 100 =
6,7617
. 100 = 15,17%
44,56
e. Hnh dng phn phi d liu

Da vo cc s liu tnh c ta thy : >
>
nn dy s c phn phi lch
phi.
Bi 3: Bu in Thnh ph H Ch Minh nghin cu vic s dng in thoi c nh
nhm tnh ton cc gi cc hp l. Mt mu ngu nhin gm 100 h gia nh c
chn t cc Qun, Huyn. S liu cho trong bng sau :
Cc tr hng thng
S h
(ngn ng)
10
60
60 80
15
80 100
22
100 120
27
120 140
140 160
160
12
9
5
Yu cu :
a. Gi s tin cc in toi hng thng c phn phi chun, hy c lng
khong mc cc trung bnh ca cc h gia nh vi tin cy 95%.
b. Hy c lng t l h gia nh c mc cc in thoi mi thng ln hn hoc
bng 100 ngn ng, vi tin cy 90%.
Gii :
Gi l tin cc in thoi hng thng
l s h gia nh
Theo bi ta c bng d liu sau :
Cc tr hng thng Tr s gia
S h
[ ]
(ngn ng)
50
510
27772,9
10
60
60 80
70
15
1050
16039,35
80 100
90
22
1980
3548,38
100 120
110
27
2970
196,83
120 140
130
12
1560
8943,48
140 160
150
9
1350
20135,61
160
170
5
850
22646,45
Tng
100
10270
99283
a. Ta c :
10270
=
=
= 102,7
100
=
)
1
99283
= 31,6679
100 1
Vi tin cy = 0,95 = 1,96

Khong c lng mc cc trung bnh ca cc h gia nh l:
+
.
31,6679
31,6679
102,7 1,96 .
102,7 + 1,96 .
100
100
96,49 108,9
b. Gi t l h gia nh c mc cc in thoi mi thng ln hn hoc bng 100
ngn ng.
Ta c:
27 + 12 + 9 + 5
=
= 0,53
100
Vi tin cy = 0,9 = 1,645

Khong c lng t l h gia nh c mc cc in thoi mi thng ln hn
hoc bng 100 ngn ng:
0,53 1,645 .
(1 )
0,53(1 0,53)
100
(1 )
0,53 + 1,645 .
0,53(1 0,53)
100
0,4478
0,6121
Bi 4: S liu v nng sut lao ng (s sn phm/ca sn xut) ca cng nhn hai
phn xng nh sau:
S cng nhn (ngi)
S sn phm/ca sn xut
Phn xng A
Phn xng B
30
2
0
40 42
0
9
43 45
25
14
46 48
13
25
49 51
5
2
58
3
0
65
2
0
a. Xc nh nng sut lao ng trung bnh ca cng nhn tng phn xng v
chung cho c hai phn xng.
b. Bng cc ch tiu thng k, hy nh gi s ng u v nng sut lao ng cho
tng phn xng. Nhn xt mt cch ngn gn.
c. Hy tho lun ngn gn v s khc bit gia lch tuyt i trung bnh v
phng sai.
Gii:
Gi: l nng sut lao ng ca cng nhn
( ) , ( ) ln lt l s cng nhn phn xng A v phn xng B
Da vo d liu bi, ta thnh lp bng sau:
( )
30
41
44
47
50
58
65
2
0
25
13
5
3
2
50
( )
0
9
14
25
2
0
0
50
( )
60
0
1100
611
250
174
130
2325
( )
0
369
616
1175
100
0
0
2260
( )
544,5
0
156,25
3,25
61,25
396,75
684,5
1846,5
( )
( )
0
158,76
20,16
81
46,08
0
0
306
( )
a. Nng sut lao ng trung bnh ca cng nhn tng phn xng v chung cho c
hai phn xng l:
2325
( )
=
= 46,5 (
)
( ) =
( )
50
2260
( )
=
= 45,2 (
)
( ) =
( )
50
2325 + 2260

( )+
( )
=
=
=
= 45,85
( )+ ( )
50 + 50
b. nh gi s ng u v NSL ngi ta c th s dng mt trong cc ch tiu

sau: lch tuyt i trung bnh, phng sai, lch tiu chun v h s bin thin.
Nu s dng lch tiu chun, ta c cng thc:
(
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
1
( )
1846,5
= 6,1387
50 1
306
= 2,4989
50 1
Nhn xt: y, hai phn xng c NSL trung bnh khng bng nhau nn ta khng
th da vo lch tiu chun kt lun phn xng no c NSL bin thin nhiu
hn phn xng no. Da vo lch tiu chun ca tng t ta ch c th kt lun:
- phn tn gia cc mc NSL ca tng cng nhn trong phn xng A so
vi mc NSL trung bnh trong phn xng A th hin bng ch tiu ( ) = 6,1387
sn phm/ca sn xut.
- phn tn gia cc mc NSL ca tng cng nhn trong phn xng B so
vi mc NSL trung bnh trong phn xng B th hin bng ch tiu ( ) = 2,4989
sn phm/ca sn xut.
c th so snh bin thin v NSL gia hai phn xng ta dng ch tiu h s
bin thin:
( )
6,1387
=
.
100
=
. 100 = 13,2%
( )
46,5
( )
( )
2,4989
. 100 =
. 100 = 5,53%
( ) =
45,2
( )
Nh vy cc mc nng sut lao ng trong phn xng A dao ng nhiu hn trong
phn xng B.
c. Xt hai cng thc
lch tuyt i trung bnh :
| |
=
Phng sai:
( )
Ta thy c hai cng thc u th hin phn tn gia cc lng bin v s trung
=
bnh. Tuy nhin cng mt ti liu tnh ton th tr s ca ln hn tr s do trong

cc lch c bnh phng ln. iu cho thy tng th cng bin thin nhiu th
s khc bit gia v cng ln.
Bi 5: nghin cu v s lng ng h bn ra ti mt ca hng, mt mu ngu
nhin gm 50 ngy c chn ra. n v (ci) nh sau:
30
25
38
50
14
15
36
59
20
18
20
11
27
46
18
58
47
55
26
35
12
57
47
42
30
53
17
29
52
19
28
45
39
50
22
13
37
20
45
11
25
52
57
47
38
48
28
58
57
18
a. Phn t d liu trn thnh 5 t vi khong cch t u nhau. Lp bng tn s,
tn sut.
b. Tnh cc c trng o lng thng k m t: Trung bnh, lch chun, trung
v, t phn v, h s bin thin.
c. Tnh phm vi sai s v s lng ng h bn ra ca ca hng trn, vi tin cy
95%. T c lng s ng h trung bnh bn c trong ngy.
Gii:
a) Theo bi ta c : s t k = 5
S nhnh v l:
Stem Leaf
1
11234578889
2
00025567889
3
00567889
4
25567778
5
002235777889
Khong cch t: =
Ta c bng phn phi
S lng ng h bn ra
(ci)
11 21
21 31
31 41
41 51
51 - 61
Tng
= 9,6 10 ( )
Tr s gia
Tn s
Tn s tch ly
16
26
36
46
56
14
10
6
10
10
50
14
24
30
40
50
Tn sut
(%)
28
20
12
20
20
100
b) Trung bnh:
=
16.14 + 26.10 + 36.6 + 46.10 + 56.10

= 34,4
50
Phng sai:
( )
(16 34,4) . 14 + (26 34,4) . 10 + (36 34,4) . 6 + (46 34,4) . 10 + (56 34,4) . 10
=
50
11472
=
= 229,44
50
=
lch tiu chun mu cha hiu chnh

=
=
lch tiu chun mu hiu chnh
=
229,44 = 15,1473
)
1
11472
= 15,301
50 1
H s bin thin
=
Ta c:
. 100 =
15,301
. 100 = 44,48 %
34,4
= 25,5 T c s lng ng h bn ra t 31 n 41 ci l t
cha trung v (Me)

=
50
24
= 31 + 10. 2
= 32,67
6
T phn v th nht Q1
Ta c:
cha Q1
1

+ .4
50
0
= 11 + 10. 4
= 19,93
14
T phn v th ba Q3
Ta c:
cha Q3
c) Ta c: n = 50,
3

+ .4
3
. 50 30
= 41 + 10. 4
= 48,5
10
= 34,4 v = 15,301
Gi s ng h trung bnh bn c trong ngy.

Vi tin cy = 0,95 = 1,96
Phm vi sai s v s lng ng h bn ra ca ca hng trn l:
15,301
(1,96).
=
.
=
= 4,2412
50
Khong c lng s ng h trung bnh bn c trong ngy l:
+
34,4 4,2412 34,4 + 4,2412
30,1588 38,6412
[31 ; 38] ( )
Vy s ng h trung bnh bn c trong ngy l t 31 n 38 ci.
MC LC
CHNG 3: TM TT V TRNH BY D LIU .................................................. 1
CHNG 4: THNG K CC MC CA HIN TNG KT - XH ................. 2
1. S tng i (%) .................................................................................................... 2
2. S bnh qun (Mean) .............................................................................................. 2
3. Mode (M0) .............................................................................................................. 2
4. Median (Me S trung v) ..................................................................................... 3
5. T phn v (Quartiles) ............................................................................................ 3
6. Cc c trng o lng phn tn ( bin thin ca tiu thc) ......................... 3
6.1 Khong bin thin (Range - ton c) ................................................................. 3
6.2 tri gia (Interquartile Range) ...................................................................... 3
6.3 lch tuyt i bnh qun (Mean absolute deviation) .................................... 3
6.4 Phng sai mu (variance) ................................................................................. 4
6.5 lch chun mu v lch chun mu hiu chnh (Standard deviation) ..... 4
6.6 H s bin thin (Coefficient of variation)......................................................... 4
6.7 Kho st hnh dng phn phi ca dy s .......................................................... 4
CHNG 5: CHUI S THI GIAN (TIMES SERIES) ............................................ 5
I. CC CH TIU M T DY S THI GIAN .................................................. 5
1. Mc bnh qun theo thi gian ........................................................................ 5
2. Lng tng (gim) tuyt i ............................................................................... 5
3. Tc pht trin ................................................................................................. 5
4. Tc tng (gim) .............................................................................................. 6
5. Gi tr tuyt i ca 1% tng (gim) .................................................................. 6
II. MT S PHNG PHP BIU HIN XU HNG BIN NG C BN
CA HIN TNG ................................................................................................... 6
1. Phng php s bnh qun trt (trung bnh di ng) ....................................... 6
2. Phng php th hin xu hng bng hm s (phng php ng thng) ..... 6
3. Phn tch bin ng thi v ................................................................................ 6
III.
D BO BIN NG CA DY S THI GIAN ....................................... 7
1. M hnh d bo tc pht trin bnh qun....................................................... 7
2. M hnh d bo theo mc tng, gim tuyt i bnh qun............................ 7

3. M hnh d bo theo m hnh hi quy ng thng (ngoi suy hm xu th
tuyn tnh) ................................................................................................................. 7
CHNG 6: CH S...................................................................................................... 8
1. Ch s c th ........................................................................................................... 8
2. Ch s tng hp ...................................................................................................... 8
3. Ch s khng gian .................................................................................................. 8
4. H thng ch s ...................................................................................................... 8
5. Vn dng phng php ch s phn tch bin ng ca ch tiu trung bnh v
tng lng bin ca tiu thc....................................................................................... 8
5.1 Phn tch bin ng ca gi thnh trung bnh .................................................... 8
5.2 Phn tch bin ng ca tng chi ph sn xut c s dng gi thnh trung bnh9
CHNG 7: IU TRA CHN MU ....................................................................... 10
1. Sai s ...................................................................................................................... 10
2. c lng trung bnh ca mt ch tiu .................................................................. 10
3. c lng t l ca mt ch tiu ........................................................................... 10
4. Xc nh phm vi sai s ......................................................................................... 10
DNG TON TNH GI THNH BNH QUN ...................................................... 11
BI TP DNG TON GI THNH BNH QUN ................................................ 13
Bi 1 ........................................................................................................................... 13
Bi 2 ........................................................................................................................... 14
Bi 3 ........................................................................................................................... 14
BI TP CHNG CH S ....................................................................................... 18
Bi 1 ........................................................................................................................... 18
Bi 2 ........................................................................................................................... 19
Bi 3 ........................................................................................................................... 20
Bi 4 ........................................................................................................................... 22
Bi 5 ........................................................................................................................... 23
Bi 6 ........................................................................................................................... 25
Bi 7 ........................................................................................................................... 26
BI TP DY S THI GIAN .................................................................................. 29

Bi 1 ........................................................................................................................... 29
Bi 2 ........................................................................................................................... 31
Bi 3 ........................................................................................................................... 32
Bi 4 ........................................................................................................................... 34
Bi 5 ........................................................................................................................... 36
Bi 6 ........................................................................................................................... 38
Bi 7 ........................................................................................................................... 39
BI TP L THUYT PHN T V IU TRA CHN MU............................. 41
Bi 1 ........................................................................................................................... 41
Bi 2 ........................................................................................................................... 43
Bi 3 ........................................................................................................................... 44
Bi 4 ........................................................................................................................... 46
Bi 5 ........................................................................................................................... 48

Tai Lieu On Thi Thong Ke Kinh Doanh - CTP

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Tai Lieu On Thi Thong Ke Kinh Doanh - CTP

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Cng thc cn nh

thi Thng K Kinh Doanh

CHNG 3: TM TT V TRNH BY D LIU

5. th phn phi tn s (Histogram)

TRNG I HC TI CHNH - MARKETING 1

CHNG 4: THNG K CC MC CA HIN TNG KT - XH

S tng i hon thnh k hoch

2. S bnh qun (Mean)

S bnh qun gia quyn

Trong : F l mt phn phi

Lu : tnh Mode (M0) khi cc t c khong cch u nhau th c th thay F bng fi

2 TRNG I HC TI CHNH - MARKETING

4. Median (Me S trung v)

l tn s tch ly ca t trc t cha Me

T cha Me l t c tr s tn s tch ly ln hn gn nht vi

6. Cc c trng o lng phn tn ( bin thin ca tiu thc)

tri gia cng ln, mc bin thin ca cc bin cng ln.

TRNG I HC TI CHNH - MARKETING 3

6.4 Phng sai mu (variance)

Phng sai mu hiu chnh

lch chun cng nh, dy s phn tn cng t.

H s bin thin c dng so snh phn tn gia cc hin tng c n v

Nu phn phi i xng: Skewness = 0

4 TRNG I HC TI CHNH - MARKETING

CHNG 5: CHUI S THI GIAN (TIMES SERIES)

I. CC CH TIU M T DY S THI GIAN

i vi dy s thi im c khong cch khng u nhau:

2. Lng tng (gim) tuyt i

Lng tng (gim) tuyt i nh gc: = ,

Tc pht trin nh gc:

TRNG I HC TI CHNH - MARKETING 5

Tc pht trin trung bnh (s trung bnh nhn Geometric Mean):

Tc tng (gim) nh gc:

Tc tng (gim) trung bnh:

5. Gi tr tuyt i ca 1% tng (gim)

II. MT S PHNG PHP BIU HIN XU HNG BIN NG C BN

c xc nh bng h phng trnh

3. Phn tch bin ng thi v

6 TRNG I HC TI CHNH - MARKETING

: Ch s thi v ca thi gian t

2. M hnh d bo theo mc tng, gim tuyt i bnh qun

3. M hnh d bo theo m hnh hi quy ng thng (ngoi suy hm xu th

TRNG I HC TI CHNH - MARKETING 7

Ch s tng hp khi lng (%)

Ch s tng hp khi lng khng gian ca th trng A so vi th trng B:

5. Vn dng phng php ch s phn tch bin ng ca ch tiu trung bnh

8 TRNG I HC TI CHNH - MARKETING

TRNG I HC TI CHNH - MARKETING 9

CHNG 7: IU TRA CHN MU

2. c lng trung bnh ca mt ch tiu

Khng hon li:

10 TRNG I HC TI CHNH - MARKETING

DNG TON TNH GI THNH BNH QUN

Dng 2: bi cho xi v xifi (s dng s trung bnh iu ha)

TRNG I HC TI CHNH - MARKETING 11

S dng s bnh qun gia quyn, ta c :

trong cng thc trn l %.

12 TRNG I HC TI CHNH - MARKETING

BI TP DNG TON GI THNH BNH QUN

Tnh gi thnh bnh qun 1 vsp ca tng doanh nghip?

ln lt l gi thnh n v sn phm ca DNA v DNB.

l t trng sn lng sn xut tng qu so vi c nm ca DNB.

chi ph sn xut ca DNA.