Viet Nam Political Update

Towards the
12th National Party Congress
Carlyle A. Thayer.
Presentation to 2015 Vietnam Update
Re-imaging Development in Vietnam
College of the Asia and the Pacific
The Australian National University
Canberra. November 12-13, 2015

Outline
1. Preparations for the 12th national party
congress
2. Interplay between domestic politics and
external relations

1. Preparations for the

12th National Party Congress

Duties of Party Congress

1

Approve Political Report

Approve Socio-Economic Plan

Amend Party Statutes

Amend Party Platform

Elect Central Committee

1st Plenum of new Central Committee

Elect Politburo

Elect Secretary General

Elect other party leaders

Central Committee (2011-15)

175 full members (218 candidates)
25 alternate members (61 candidates)
of which:
14 are Politburo members (expanded to
16 in 2013)
4 are members of the Secretariat
21 are members the Control Committee

Sectoral Composition of the VCP

Central Committee 2011
11%

9%

Senior Party

38%
42%

Central PartyState
Secondary/Provi
ncial
Armed Forces

The general composition of the Central Committee is unlikely to change after 12th Congress

Generational Change on the VCP

Central Committee 2011

Full members
retained
Alternate members
promoted
New full members

th
12

National Party Congress

Retirement age 65 or two terms in office

Special exemptions
Directive 44 eligibility for elections to
Central Committee
Voting by delegates (1,377 in 2011)
Scheduled for early 2016 (7-9 January?)

Over 65 in 2016 - 12th Congress

Added to
Politburo in 2013:

Nguyn Th Kim Ngn

Nguyn Thin Nhn

th
10

Plenum (January)

Draft policy documents for 12th Congress

Reviewed thirty of years of doi moi
Restructure of civil service
Press Management and Development until 2025
Preparations for party congresses at various
levels 2015-2020
Vote of confidence members of Politburo and
Secretariat

th
11

Plenum (May 4-7)

Selection of delegates to 12th Congress

Criteria for selection of Central Committee
members at the 12th Congress
Performance of the Politburo since tenth
plenum
Local government model
Long Thanh International Airport (Sn bay
Quc t Long Thnh)

New Central Committee Members

Must not contain any one who commits one
of the following mistakes and wrongdoings:
inconsistent political will, politically
opportunistic and lust for power, engages in
corruption and red tape, involved with special
interest groups, violates democratic
centralism, authoritarian, unfair in appraising
personnel, represses whistleblowers and
critics,

New Central Committee Members

responsible for serious internal disunity,
corruption and wastage, weak professional
performance and discipline, fails to carry out
Party assignments, dishonest in declaring
assets, inappropriate lifestyle for oneself,
spouse, children, abuse of power to acquire
ill-gotten gains, or having an unclear political
profile

National Assembly
13th Legislature
9th Session (May 20-June 25)
Passed 11 laws, debated 16 bills
Long Thanh international airport

10th Session (October 21 still in session)

18 bills to be considered
Cabinet members required to answer questions
from the floor regarding their perfomance without
prior notice

Release of Draft Policy Documents

Special website dedicated to 12th
Congress preparations inaugurated on
September 14
http://doihot12.dangcongsan.vn/

Draft Political Report

Draft Socio-Economic Plan for the next
five years
Public feedback until end of October

Draft Political Report (Sept. 15)

1. Overview of the implementation of the
resolution of the 11th National Party Congress
(2011-2015) and looking back 30 years of
renovation (1986-2016)
2. General objectives and tasks of national
development in five years from 2016 to 2020
3. Innovating the growth model and restructuring
the economy; stepping up industrialization and
modernization of the country
4. Improving the institution, developing socialistoriented market economy

Draft Political Report

5. Renewing education and training
basically and comprehensively;
developing human resources
6. Developing and applying science and
technology
7. Developing culture and human resourcer
development
8. Managing social development;
implementing progress and social justice

Draft Political Report

9. Strengthening natural resources management;
environmental protection; taking initiative in
preventing and combating natural disasters,
coping with climate change
10. Strengthening national defense and security,
firmly defend the Socialist Republic of Vietnam in
the new situation
11. Improving the efficiency of diplomatic
activities, taking initiative and active in
international integration

Draft Political Report

12. Upholding the strength of the great
national unity
13. Upholding socialist democracy, ensuring
the implementation of the people's right of
mastery
14. Improving the socialist law-governed State
15. Building the clean and strong Party and
enhancing leadership capacity and
combativeness of the Party

th
12

Plenum (October 5-11)

Socio-economic performance in 2015 and

plans for 2016
Politburo Report on personnel preparations
for the 12th Congress including new Politburo,
Secretariat, and key leaders
Criteria for re-election of current leadership

Elections for the 14th National Assembly and

Peoples Councils at all levels (2016-2021)

Party Congresses at Various Levels

68 centrally-run party committee congresses
10th Military Party Committee
Party Committee of Central Enterprises Bloc
Party Committee for Central Agencies
Central Public Security Party Committee

63 Provincial and Municipal Party Committees

Ho Chi Minh City
Hanoi City

Selection of delegates to 12th Congress

2. Interplay between domestic

politics and external relations
China
United States
Japan

i tc v i tng
Partners of
Cooperation, Targets of
Struggle

"
!
!

"

Vietnam-China
Secretary General Nguyen Phu Trong visits
China (April)
President Truong Tan Sang visits China for
World War II commemoration (Sept 3)
Minister of Planning and Investment attends
Chinas National Day Reception at Chinese
Embassy in Hanoi (Sept 29)
Ha Huy Hoang convicted for spying for China
(Sept 30)

Xi Jinping Addresses
Vietnams National Assembly

Anti-Xi Protests

Who Else Was In Town?

President of Italy
Sergio Mattarella

Japanese Defence Minister

Gen Nakatani

Vietnam-United States
Defense Secretary Ash Carter meets General
Phung Quang Thanh (June)
Secretary General Nguyen Phu Trong meets
President Barack Obama at The White House
(July 7)
Agree to respect each others political systems

Chair of National Assembly Standing

Committee Nguyen Sinh Hung visits
Washington

Human Rights & Religious Freedom

UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office: 55
prisoners remain on EUs persons of concern
list and political and human rights activists
continue to be arrested (March 2015)
Committee to Protest Journalists ranks
Vietnam sixth on list of most censored
countries in the world 16 bloggers and
journalists are imprisoned (April)

Human Rights & Religious Freedom

Amnesty International reported 60 prisoners
of conscience in jail (April)
Bild News Agency: Vietnam ranks fifth among
worst enemies of freedom - 30 bloggers and 2
journalists imprisoned (May)

Human Rights & Religious Freedom

New Marriage Law abolishes ban on same sex
marriages (January)
National Assembly debates protection of
those under temporary detention and arrest
(February)
Amnesty declared for 18,000 Vietnamese
prisoners to mark 70th National Day
(September)

Human Rights & Religious Freedom

Hng L Th, Nguyn Quang Lp, Nguyn
Ngc Gi (Nguyn nh Ngc) arrested NovDec 2014
13 social activists report they were attacked
by police after visiting recently released Trn
Anh Kim, a pro-democracy activist (Jan)
Hng L Th & Nguyn Quang Lp released
February

Human Rights & Religious Freedom

T Phong T, blogger, released and sent to the
United States (Sept)
Phm Minh V, Nam Trung and L Th
Phng Anh sentenced to jail Feb 12th for
anti-state activities (anti-China protests)
Trn Minh Nht and Thi Vn Dung, Catholic
activists, released (August)
Mixed record

Vietnam-Japan
Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung visits Tokyo
(July)
Concern about Chinas land reclamation

Secretary General Nguyen Phu Trong visits

Tokyo (Sept 15-18)
First visit by leader of Vietnam Communist Party

Japanese Defense Minister visits Hanoi and

(Nov 5-7)
During Xis visit to Hanoi

Final Observations
There may another plenary session of the
Central Committee between now and the
national congress to decide leadership

scenarios for leadership

Key policy documents appear general and
vague
Party delegates to congress have demanded
greater say in the past
Central Committee playing more powerful role

Vietnams Power Elite

Secretary
General
Prime
Minister

State
President
Head
Fatherland
Front

Permanent
Secretary
Party
Secretariat

Chair National
Assembly
Standing
Committee

These positions will be refilled after the 12th National Party Congress

Power Struggle for Party Leadership?

Deputy Prime Ministers

Who will replace Nguyn Tn Dng as Prime Minister after 12th National Party Congress
Hong Trung Hi, Nguyn Xun Phc, V Vn Ninh or someone else?
Prime Minister
Nguyn Tn Dng
Hong
Trung Hi

Nguyn
Xun Phc

V Vn
Ninh

Phm
Bnh Minh

Newly appointed 2013

Year of Birth:
1954

V c
am

1954

1955

1963

1959

Prior to 2006 the next Prime Minister was invariably the first or permanent Deputy
Prime Minister. There is uncertainty as the 12th National Party Congress approaches

Viet Nam Political Update

Towards the
12th National Party Congress
Carlyle A. Thayer
Email: c.thayer@adfa.edu.au