H

NG D N PHN TCH &

T CH NG KHON

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2003 VPC, All rights

reserved

Its all about team power

that TMT can provide you
TMT Consulting JSC.
Suite 1806, Blg. 27 Huynh Thuc Khang
Ba Dinh, Ha Noi, Viet Nam
Tel: (04) 773 5538 Fax: (04) 773 5539
E-mail: tmt@tmt.com.vn
www.tmt.com.vn
2006 TMT, All rights reserved

MODULE 5
PHN TCH K THUT
TRONG PHN TCH V U T CHNG KHON
Presented by Nguyen Thuy Hoan
Work: SRTC_SSC
Phone: (04) 553 5876
Email: nguyenthuyhoan@gmail.com

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

Cc vn c bn
Mt s kin thc v PTKT
Thc hnh trn mt s trang Web

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

PHN 1
MT S KIN THC V PHN TCH K THUT

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

Mc tiu nghin cu
Hiu c cc khi nim c bn trong
PTKT
Xy dng v hiu c cc din bin v
gi v khi lng giao dch
S dng cc cng c phn tch xc
nh xu th, cc thi im t ph
Xy dng c cc chin lc u t
da trn PTKT
2006 TMT, All rights reserved

Ti sao s dng PTKT?

Phn tch c bn l nn tng v khng c
s xung t vi PTKT
Hn ch ca phn tch c bn:
Kh tnh chnh xc gi tr ni ti
B qua vai tr ca yu t tm l ca cc bn tham
gia th trng
Hn ch xc nh trong thi im ngn hn

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

Khi nim PTKT

PTKT l vic nghin cu gi, vi cng c c bn l

biu , nhm nng cao hiu qu ca hot ng u t.
(Steven B.Achelis TA from A to Z)
PTKT l vic nghin cu cc hnh vi ca cc bn tham
gia th trng thng qua s bin ng ca gi, khi
lng chng khon giao dch nhm xc nh c xu
th bin ng gi v thi im u t.

Mt s cu hi cn gii quyt
What to trade?
When to trade? (Timing is everything)
How to trade?

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

L thuyt DOW

Th trng phn nh tt c cc thng tin trong

gi CK

3 xu th ca th trng (xu th s cp, xu th

th cp v cc bin ng hng ngy)

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

Cc gi nh ca PTKT
Bin ng th trng phn nh tt c
Gi dch chuyn theo xu th chung
Lch s s t lp li

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

10

Xy dng th

Biu dng ng Line Chart

Biu dng then chn Bar Chart

Biu hnh ng CandleStick Chart

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11

 th dng ng thng

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 th dng then chn

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13

 th dng ng

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14

Xu th, ng xu th
v knh xu th

Xu th

ng xu th

Knh xu th

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15

Xu th - Trend

Gm c:
Xu th tng gi
Xu th gim gi.

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

16

ng xu th - Trenline
ng xu th gi tng l cc ng ni cc
im y cao dn.
ng xu th gi gim l cc ng ni cc
im nh thp dn.

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

17

ng xu th - Trenline
ng xu th hng ln
ng xu th hng xung

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18

Thc hnh
GMD

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19

GMD

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20

Knh xu th - Trend channel

nh ngha: Knh l khong dao ng ca gi, nu gi
dao ng trong mt di th di gi l knh.
Di dao ng c xc nh bi 2 ng bin l
ng xu th v ng knh (Channel Line), 2 ng
ny song song vi nhau.

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

21

Knh xu th - Trend channel

Knh xu th hng xung

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22

Knh xu th - Trend channel

Knh xu th hng ln

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23

im t ph
im t ph (Breakout ) l im m ti xu hng
chnh b ph v, bo hiu mt xu th i chiu xut hin

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

24

Mc h tr v mc khng c
ngha
- Vic nghin cu mc khng c v h tr l rt quan
trng trong phn tch k thut.
- L c s trong vic chn cc loi c phiu mua
hay bn, trong d on cc bin ng tim nng, ch
ra thi im m th trng gy rc ri cho nh u t.

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

25

Mc h tr
Mc h tr l vic mua vi khi lng ln
ngng li xu th gim gi trong mt thi k
tng i di.

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

26

Mc khng c
Mc khng c l vic bn vi khi lng
tho mn cc mc cho mua do lm gi
ngng khng tng na trong mt khong thi
gian tng i di.

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

27

Mc h tr v mc khng c

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

28

Cc hnh mu k thut
nh ngha:
HMKT l cc m hnh gi hoc hnh mu gi l bc tranh
hay cc m hnh bin ng nht nh ca gi xut hin trn
biu gi
ng dng:
p dng vi TTCK
Giao dch Forex, trong phn tch TT Furtures v cc hng ho
khc
p dng cho c di hn ln ngn hn v chia thnh 2 loi m
hnh:
MH cng c v duy tr xu th hin ti v o chiu xu th
hin ti.

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

29

Cc hnh mu k thut

Hnh mu k thut cng c (duy tr) xu th th trng

+ HMKT hnh tam gic hng ln(1)
+ HMKT cc v chui( Cup and Handle)(2)
+ HMKT hnh tam gic hng xung(3)
+ HMKT hnh tam gic cn(4)
+ HMKT hnh c ch nht v hnh c ui nheo(5)
+ HMKT hnh ch nht(6)

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

30

Cc hnh mu k thut

Hnh mu k thut o chiu xu th th trng

+ M hnh hai y(7)
+ HMKT hnh hai nh(8)
+ HMKT ci nm hng xung(9)
+ HMKT nh u vai(10)
+ HMKT hnh y vng cung(11)
+ HMKT hnh ba y(12)
+ HMKT hnh ba nh(13)

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

31

Hnh tam gic hng ln

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32

Hnh tam gic hng ln

ASCENDING TRIANGLE IN AN
UPTREND (BULLISH)

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

ASCENDING TRIANGLE(S) IN
AN UPTREND (BULLISH)

33

M hnh tam gic hng xung

Descending Triangles

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34

M hnh tam gic cn

Symmetrical Triangles
SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE IN
AN UPTREND (BULLISH)

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35

M hnh c ch nht Flags

"BULL" FLAG IN AN UPTREND (BULLISH)

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36

Khi lng giao dch

Khi lng v cc xu hng gi chng khon
Khi lng v cc bin ng vt ra ngoi
khong dao ng ca gi chng khon.

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

37

Khi lng giao dch

Khi lng khng nh xu hng gi
Nu mc gi tng v khi lng giao dch tng
- Ngi mua ang quan tm n th trng
- Xu hng gi ln ang tip din

Nu gi gim v khi lng giao dch tng

- Ngi bn ang quan tm n th trng
- Xu hng gi gim ang tip din

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

38

Khi lng giao dch

Khi lng khng nh xu hng gi

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39

Khi lng giao dch

Khi lng khng th khng nh xu hng gi

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40

Khi lng giao dch

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41

Phn 2
CC CH BO K THUT C BN
& NG DNG

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

42

Cc ch bo k thut c bn
NG TRUNG BNH TRT (MA)
NG TRUNG BNH TRT HI T/PHN K
(MACD)
CH S SC MNH TNG I (RSI)
DI BOLLINGER BAND

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

43

Cc ch bo k thut c bn
Phng php nghin cu ch s:

ngha ca ch s
Cng thc tnh ch s
ng dng
V d minh ha

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

44

ng trung bnh trt MA

ngha:

- MA l ch bo hu ch dng theo di khuynh hng

bin ng gi chng khon v s o chiu ca nhng
khuynh hng ny.
- MA c tc dng lm trn s bin ng ca gi CK trn
TTCK nhm loi b nhng bin ng nh v cho ta ci
nhn chnh xc v xu th chnh ca th trng.

Mt s ng MA c bn:
-

SMA : ng trung bnh trt gin n

WMA: ng trung bnh trt tuyn tnh c trng s
EMA : ng trung bnh trt theo h s m
VMA : ng trung bnh trt bin i
TMA : ng trung bnh trt hi quy theo thi gian

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

45

ng trung bnh trt gin n

(SMA)

Nhn t ct yu trong vic tnh ton Trung bnh

trt l vic xc nh khong thi gian tnh
ton. Vic la chn cho mi s trung bnh trt ph
thuc vo i tng phn tch, khong thi gian ph
bin nht thng c s dng l 9/10, 18/20,
40/50, 100 v 200 n v thi gian.
SMA ca mt loi chng khon c tnh bng cch
cng gi ng ca ca n trong khong thi gian nht
nh ri chia tng tm c cho tng cc n v tnh
trong khong thi gian thi gian trn.

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

46

ng trung bnh trt gin n

Phng TL - TH

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

47

ng trung bnh trt m

EMA

EMA ca mt loi chng khon c tnh bng cch

cng mt phn gi ngy hm nay vi gi tr SMA
ngy hm qua ca chnh loi chng khon theo
mt t trng no .
EMA = todays close*0.09 + yesterdays SMA*0.91
Nhiu nh u t khng quen vi vic s dng t l
phn trm, ta c cng thc chuyn i sau:
2
T l phn trm= ----------------------thi k tr +1
2006 TMT, All rights reserved

48

ng trung bnh trt m

EMA

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

49

ng chun MACD
ngha:

- MACD l ch bo cho thy s quy t hay phn k

ca trung bnh chuyn ng.
- MACD cho s khng nh du hiu th trng khi
ng MA ngn hn giao nhau vi ng MA di
hn.

ng dng:

- Thng s dng ng MACD vi s chnh lnh

ca hai ng EMA 12 v EMA 26 v mt ng
tn hiu l EMA 9

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

50

ng chun MACD

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

51

ng MACD - Histogram
ngha:

- MACD-H phn nh lch gia hai ng MACD v

ng tn hiu ca n. Khi no MACD xuyn cho qua
ng tn hiu th MACD-H xuyn cho qua ng s
khng.
- MACD-H c dng d bo trc s thay i trong
khuynh hng bin ng gi chng khon.

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

52

ng MACD Histogram

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

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ng MACD - Histogram
Tn hiu t ng MACD-H

- Tn hiu tng gi khi MACD-H hnh thnh

phn k dng v MACD hng ln trn
ng tn hiu.
- Tn hiu gim gi khi ng MACD-H hnh
thnh mt phn k m v MACD xuyn cho
xung pha di ng s tn hiu.

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

54

Ch s sc mnh tng quan RSI

Khi nim: RSI l mt ch s ng lng o sc mnh
tng i ca mt chng khon nht nh hoc ca c
th trng.
RSI c o theo thang t 0% n 100% v ly hai
ng 30% v 70% lm hai ng ch bo k thut.

Cng thc ton hc:

TB ca s ngy gi ng ca tng trong n ngy
RS = -----------------------------------------------------------TB ca s ngy gi ng ca gim trong n ngy
RSI = 100

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

100
--------1+RS

n : c n nh trc

55

Ch s sc mnh tng quan RSI

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

56

Di Bollinger Band
Khi nim:
L min th hin sai lch xung quanh gi tr trung
bnh v c xc nh theo mt t l phn trm
nht nh pha trn v pha di ng MA
ng dng:
Mr_Bollinger gi thi k tr ca ng MA l 20
v t l phn trm l 2% s cho nhng kt qu
tnh ton ng tin cy.

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

57

Di Bollinger band

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

58

Momentum
ngha: Th hin tc hay dc ca ng gi chng
khon.
Cch tnh:
- Tnh ton bi t l phn trm gia hai thi k vi khong
thi gian c nh
Du hiu:
- Mua khi mementum m
- Bn khi momentum dng
Momentum

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

Close
* 100
ref ( Close 10 )

59

TNG HP CC CH BO C BN

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

60

TNG HP CC CH BO C BN

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

61

TNG HP CC CH BO C BN

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

62

XIN CAM N
Presented by Nguyen Thuy Hoan - SRTC_SSC
Email: nguyenthuyhoan@gmail.com

2006 TMT, All rights reserved

63

TMT Consulting JSC.

Phong 1806 - Toa nha 27
Huynh Thuc Khang, Ha ni
Tel: (04) 773 5538 Fax: (04) 773 5539
E-mail: tmt@tmt.com.vn Website: www.tmt.com.vn

2003 VPC, All rights

reserved

64