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Thayer Consultancy

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing:
Vietnams 12th Party Congress:
What to Expect, Why Is It
Important?
Carlyle A. Thayer
December 27, 2015

[client name deleted]


W are drafting a short report on Vietnam's Party Congress to be held in January and
we would very much appreciate if you could provide us with some background on
what we can expect at the coming 12th National Party Pongress and what the
congress means for the country and its people.
REPLY: Vietnam will hold the 12th National Congress of the Vietnam Communist
Party from 20-28 January. The National Congress convenes every five years and is
the highest party executive authority. The 12th Congress is especially significant as
Vietnam takes further steps to integrate itself with the global economy through the
Trans Pacific Partnership and through participating in multinational institutions. The
12th Congress will be important for two reasons. First, it will elect a new Central
Committee. The Central Committee in turn will elect the Politburo, Secretariat,
Inspection Committee, Secretary General and endorse candidates for the office of
state president, prime minister and chair of the National Assembly. These candidates
will stand for election in May.
Central Committee members, who met recently at the 13th plenum, individually
voted for candidates for the four top party-state positions. Leadership selection has
been contentious this year. Ordinarily party rules require that persons who have
served two terms in office and/or reached 65 years of age should retire. However a
special exemption can be made. For example, the 11th National Congress elected
Nguyen Phu Trong as party Secretary General even though he was over 65 years of
age. It is rumoured that Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung wants to be the next party
leader and he could receive an exemption from the retirement age. But Dungs case
is unprecedented. No top leader who retires from high office has sought an
exemption to serve in another high office. Reportedly this has produced a backlash
against Dung by his rivals, President Truong Tan Sang and Secretary General Trong.
The Vietnam Communist Party has been more transparent than previously in
keeping the general public informed about the mechanics of leadership selection. So
far, however, the names of successful candidates for election to the Central
Committee and higher office have been kept confidential.
Second, the 12th National Congress will be important to the ordinary people of
Vietnam in particular because it will adopt two major policy documents, the Political

2
Report and the Socio-Economic Plan for 2016-2020. Drafts of these documents were
released in September for public discussion and comment.
The draft Political Report gives priority to, among other matters, education and
training, developing science and technology, tackling corruption, enhancing the rule
of law, national unity, socialist democracy, and building a clean and strong party.
The Socio-Economic Plan stresses the importance of maintaining macro-economic
stability, controlling public debt and developing Vietnam into a modern and
industrialised country by 2020. It sets the target of an average GDP growth rate of
between 6.5 and 7 per cent over the next five years. By 2020 GDP per capita is
expected to reach U.S. $3,670-$3,750 or placing Vietnam at the border line between
low and medium income country.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnams 12th Party Congress: What to


Expect, Why Is It Important?, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, December 27,
2015. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove
yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the
Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

Party Membership by Region


SMD

2.36%

SCV

2.92%
6.05%

SCH
2.81%

2.12%

NTB

5.55%
5.17%

NRR

5.15%

NCV
N

SMD South Mekong Delta provinces


SCV South Central Vietnam provinces
SCH South Central Highlands provinces
South (southern provinces)
NTB North Tay Bac (North East) provinces
NRR North Red River Delta provinces
NCH North Central Highlands provinces
North (northern provinces)

VCP Membership (in millions)


4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00

VCP Membership (in


millions)

1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

i hi ng 12 c 'hai im quan trng' - BBC Ting Vit

Tin chnh

Vit Nam

Th gii

Din n

Kinh t

Page 1 of 8

Nhp sng mi

i hi ng 12 c 'hai im quan
trng'
30 thng 12 2015

Chia s

AFP

ng Nguyn Ph Trng (gia) s ti v chc Tng B th thm nhim k hay phi nhng gh
cho ng Nguyn Tn Dng (phi) sau i hi ng 12?

Mt nh quan st nc ngoi ni v im "cha c tin l"


i hi 12 trong lc con trai Tng b th L Dun cnh
bo v vai tr nhn dn b "lu m".
Gio s Carl Thayer, nh quan st chnh tr Vit Nam lu nm,
va c bi phn tch v i hi ng 12 trong ng m t i
hi ny c bit quan trng v "hai l do".

http://www.bbc.com/vietnamese/vietnam/2015/12/151230_vn_party_congress_prepar... 31/12/2015

i hi ng 12 c 'hai im quan trng' - BBC Ting Vit

Page 2 of 8

"Th nht, h s bu Ban Chp hnh Trung ng ng mi.


Nhng ngi ny s ln lt bu B Chnh tr, Ban B th, U
ban kim tra Trung ng ng, tng b th v thng qua cc
ng vin ch tch nc, th tng v ch tch quc hi. Nhng
ng vin ny s c bu vo thng 5/2016.
"Cc y vin Ban Chp hnh Trung ng ng va nhm hp
Hi ngh 13, b phiu chn ng vin cho bn v tr cao nht ca
ng v nh nc. Vic la chn lnh o gy nhiu tranh ci
nm nay. Trn l thuyt, iu l ng buc nhng ngi
phc v hai nhim k v/hoc hn 65 tui phi ngh hu.
"Tuy nhin, thc t c th c ngoi l c bit. V d, i hi
ng 11 bu ng Nguyn Ph Trng lm Tng B th d nm
ng hn 65 tui.
"C tin n rng Th tng Nguyn Tn Dng mun l Tng b
th k tip v ng c th c min tr quy nh tui tc.
Nhng trng hp ca ng Dng cha c trong tin l.
"Vit Nam cha tng c nh lnh o chc v cao li tm
kim s min tr [quy nh tui tc] khi ri gh c li chuyn
sang ngi mt gh khc cng cao trong hng ng chp bu lnh
o. Trng hp ny to nn hiu ng phn i ng Dng d
di t pha cc i th ca ng l Ch tch Trng Tn Sang v
Tng B th Nguyn Ph Trng," ng Thayer vit.
Nh quan st ny bnh lun rng c mt iu khng th ph
nhn l ng Cng sn Vit Nam hin nay minh bch hn so
vi trc y trong vic truyn thng n ngi dn v c ch
la chn lnh o.
Tuy nhin, n nay tn ca cc ng vin c chn bu vo
Ban Chp hnh Trung ng ng v cc v tr cao hn vn
c gi b mt, ng Thayer nhn xt.

http://www.bbc.com/vietnamese/vietnam/2015/12/151230_vn_party_congress_prepar... 31/12/2015

i hi ng 12 c 'hai im quan trng' - BBC Ting Vit

Page 3 of 8

GETTY

Gio s Carl Thayer ni trng hp ca ng Nguyn Tn Dng cha c trong


tin l

L do th hai khin i hi ng 12 quan trng, theo Gio s


Carl Thayer, l ti s kin ny s cng b hai vn kin chnh
yu -Bo co chnh tr v Bo co Kinh t-X hi 2016-2020. D
tho cc vn kin ny c a ra thng 9/2015 tho
lun cng khai.
D tho Bo co Chnh tr u tin cc vn gio dc v o
to, pht trin khoa hc v cng ngh, chng tham nhng, tng
cng cc quy nh php lut, on kt dn tc, dn ch x hi
ch ngha v xy dng "ng trong sch vng mnh".
Bo co Kinh t-X hi nhn mnh tm quan trng ca vic duy
tr kinh t v m n nh, kim sot n cng v t mc tiu pht
trin Vit Nam thnh quc gia hin i v cng nghip nm
2020.
Bo co cng t mc tiu tc tng trng GDP 6,5-7%
trong 5 nm tip theo.
n nm 2020, GDP bnh qun u ngi d kin t 3.670 3.750 la, a Vit Nam tip cn danh sch quc gia thu nhp
trung bnh.

http://www.bbc.com/vietnamese/vietnam/2015/12/151230_vn_party_congress_prepar... 31/12/2015

i hi ng 12 c 'hai im quan trng' - BBC Ting Vit

Page 4 of 8

AP

Ai trong s bn nh lnh o ny s tip bc sau i hi ng 12 vn cn l


mt n s

Nh bo Huy c vo hm 30/12/2015 vit trn Facebook c


nhn nh gi v con ngi v nhng chnh sch ca th tng
Nguyn Tn Dng.
"Sau mi nm tr thnh ngi c quyn lc nht t nc,
ng Dng c nhiu quyt nh lm khnh kit nn kinh th
[c bit l chnh sch lp cc tp on kinh doanh a ngnh].
" hai nm, k t ngy ng "gi thng ip ci cch" ti dn
chng, Chnh ph cha h c mt hnh ng ci cch hu hiu
no trong khi cc b ngnh di trng ca ng tip tc ""
thm nhiu loi th tc nhng nhiu ngi dn v doanh
nghip.
"Tnh t khi ng trong top 5 ngi quyn lc nht (y vin
thng v B chnh tr - 1996), Nguyn Tn Dng trn nh
cao quyn lc gn 20 nm.
"Sau 20 nm nhn li, c bit l 10 nm lm th tng, trong
s cc gia nh VN, c l ch gia nh ng l thnh cng nht,"
nh bo Huy c vit.

B trn'
Trong mt din bin khc vo hm 30/12/2015, mt bo ca B
Cng an ng bi bnh lun ' Chng ta thc s tin nhn dn?'
ca ng L Kin Thnh, con trai cu Tng B th L Dun.
ng Thnh vit: ''L con trai mt ngi Cng sn hy sinh c
cuc i mnh cho t nc, ti c mt khao kht tt cng l
ng s thc s vng mnh, s thc s l ng ca dn tc,
ca nhn dn, qun mnh v li ch ca dn tc, ca nhn dn

http://www.bbc.com/vietnamese/vietnam/2015/12/151230_vn_party_congress_prepar... 31/12/2015

i hi ng 12 c 'hai im quan trng' - BBC Ting Vit

Page 5 of 8

"Nhng nhng m vt trn nm suy ngh v t nc, ti hiu


chng ta cn thiu v sai nhiu. Mt trong nhng ci sai l
chng ta cha thc s bit tin dn!''
"Nhng khi s nghip ln thnh cng, nhng ngi Cng
sn tr thnh nhng ngi lnh o t nc, h dn dn tr
thnh giai cp cm quyn v c lc nhn xung nhn dn ca
mnh."
"Nhng cm t ng soi ng, ng ch li, ng dn dt
m chng ta vn hay dng, v hnh trung khin cho tt c
chng ta u c cm gic ng ang vt ln c dn tc v lm
cho vai tr rt ln ca nhn dn phn no b lu m i. Ti rt lo
s, qua nm thng, chnh nhng cu ch cng to ra s
ng nhn cho chnh nhng ngi trong ng," ng Thnh vit.
ng L Kin Thnh, mt doanh nhn kh thnh t, vit thm
rng "ng sinh ra l t dn tc ny, tn ti c cng nh dn
tc ny, vinh quang c cng l nh dn tc ny, thnh cng
ny cng l do c dn tc cng ng lng tr bng xng bng
mu. Vt ln trn dn tc l iu khng bao gi c php!
"Trc y khi chng ta mun ni iu g vi dn, ch dng mt
t truyn n l ngi dn tin. Trong khi hin chng ta c
n khong 800 u bo m chng ta li lo s nhn dn s hiu
sai v ng khi c nhng ting ni tri chiu trn nhng trang
bo l tri. l iu phi l m ti khng ct ngha c," ng
Thnh vit.

Chia s tin ny V mc Chia s


Quay li u

Tin lin quan


Trung ng ng: T tr ai ai v?
12 thng 10 2015

http://www.bbc.com/vietnamese/vietnam/2015/12/151230_vn_party_congress_prepar... 31/12/2015

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