Thayer Consultancy

Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

South China Sea: Five Major

Issues in 2016
Carlyle A. Thayer
December 22, 2015
[client name deleted]
Q1. According to you, what are the main issues to watch for in 2016?
ANSWER: In 2016 there are five major issues to watch. The first the decision of the
Arbitral Tribunal, expected to come out between April and June, and responses by
China and other claimant states. Any ruling in favour of the Philippines will be
rejected by China. This puts China on the other side of international law. What will
ASEAN do? What will the major maritime powers do?
The second issue is U.S. continuation of freedom of navigation patrols and
overflights reportedly to take place at least once every quarter commencing in
January. Will the U.S. make it FONOP more pointed sailing close to artificial islands,
flying P-8 Poseidon and B-52 aircraft over the airspace? How will China react?
Third, some ASEAN observers see 2016 as crunch time for the conclusion of a Code
of Conduct in the South China Sea with China because of Chinas construction of
artificial islands. If consultations are drawn out without any results will there be a
diplomatic push back by ASEAN?
Fourth, China will complete its consolidation and infrastructure building on its seven
artificial islands. What next? Who will populate these features? What equipment will
be brought in? What ships and aircraft will be stationed there? Will China base its
Coast Guard there and be more vigorous in asserting jurisdiction against the
Philippines and Vietnam? Will China militarize these artificial islands by emplacing
long range radar, anti-air and anti-ship missiles, artillery, electronic warfare
equipment and berth frigates?
Fifth, how will elections in Taiwan and the Philippines affect the political-diplomatic
dynamics of maritime disputes in the South China Sea? Will the PPP give greater
stress to sovereignty claims and distance itself from mainland China? Will a new
Philippine president be more accommodating to China that President Aquino?
Q2. Laos will take the ASEAN chairmanship in January. Concerning the South China
Sea issues, is a Cambodia-like scenario possible as Beijing influence over Vientiane is
often considered as strong?
ANSWER: In 2012, according to a transcript of the discussions at the ASEAN
Ministers Meeting Retreat leaked to me, Laos hardly played a role in discussions on

2
the South China Sea. It declared it would follow the consensus of the meeting and
remained silent when the discussion became heated. Laos is likely to pursue the
same path as ASEAN Chair. Laos is unlikely to follow Cambodias 2012 lead and block
a joint statement on the South China Sea.
Laos will be under pressure from all sides. Among states concerned about the South
China Sea there is considerable frustration at the lack of progress on a COC. These
states will push back against any Chinese pressures on Laos. In addition, the role of
the ASEAN Secretary General and Singapore, as ASEAN country coordinator for
China, will play important roles in keeping the South China Sea on the ASEAN
agenda..
Q3. What can Vietnam do to convince Laos on the South China Sea issues?
ANSWER: Vietnam has good relations with the Lao leadership; Prime Minister
Nguyen Tan Dung visited Vientiane this year. Vietnamese diplomats can lobby Laos
to play the role of ASEAN Chair by reflecting consensus on the South China Sea.
It is unlikely Laos has the inclination or resources to take a proactive stance on the
South China Sea. For example, ASEAN requires that two summits be held every year.
Laos has requested that these be held back-to-back in 2016 because of resource
constraints. Laos will want to play a low key role and thus will act to reflect
consensus within ASEAN while at the same time letting other countries to take the
lead. Cambodia is likely to continue to play the role of spoiler on Chinas behalf.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, South China Sea: Five Major Issues in 2016,
Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, December 22, 2015. All background briefs are
posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

5 vn quan trng v lot cu hi ln v Bin ng | Th gii | Dn tr

Page 1 of 3

So snh

Tm kim

English

Video

ng

S kin X hi

EU & Nga

Th gii

Chu M

Th thao

Gio dc Nhn i

im nng

Ton cnh th gii nm 2015

Kiu bo

Kinh doanh Vn ha Gii tr

Du lch

Chuyn l

T liu

Th Nh K bn ri my bay chin u Nga

Robot qun s Nga ln

u tham chin ti
Syria

Dn tr Th gii

Th T, 30/12/2015 - 09:00

Nm 2016:

5 vn quan trng v lot cu hi ln v

Bin ng
Thch

Chia s

Gi

Dn tr Gio s Carl Thayer nu bt 5 s kin quan trng cn

ch , t phn quyt ca Ta n Trng ti Thng trc La Haye i
vi n Philippines kin Trung Quc v Bin ng, cho n mc
qun s ha 7 hn o nhn to m Bc Kinh bi p tri php
Trng Sa.
>> Trung Quc ngang nhin iu thm tu chin ti Bin ng
>> Trung Quc a gin khoan Hi Dng-981 ti v tr thm d
mi Bin ng

TIU IM
Hnh nh t v tinh cho thy Trung Quc gia tng tc bi p tri
php cc o nhn to trn Bin ng. (nh: Le Figaro)
Theo Carl Thayer, v gio s ngh hu ca Hc vin Quc phng
c, i hc New South Wale, trong nm 2016 c 5 vn chnh cn
theo di nh sau:
Mt l, phn quyt ca Ta n Trng ti (Thng trc ti La Haye), d
kin s c a ra trong khong thi gian t thng 4 n thng 6 v
phn ng ca Trung Quc cng cc quc gia khc c i hi ch quyn
trn Bin ng v phn quyt ny. Bt k phn quyt no c li cho
Philippines chc chn u s b Trung Quc bc b - hnh ng khng
khc g Bc Kinh t t Trung Quc "ra ngoi vng lut php quc t".
Vy cc nc ASEAN s lm g? Cc cng quc hng hi ln s lm
g?
Hai l, M s tip tc cc chin dch tun tra v quyn t do hng hi
v hng khng (FONOP). Chin dch tun tra ny d kin s din ra t
nht mi qu mt ln, bt u t thng 1/2016. Liu M c th s tin
hnh nhng chin dch tun tra FONOP mnh m hn hay khng? Nh
cho tu p st cc o nhn to m Trung quc bi p tri php, hay
cho phi c P-8 Poseidon v B-52 bay qua khng phn trn cc o?
Trung Quc s phn ng nh th no v nhng hot ng ny?
Ba l, kh nng hon tt mt B Quy tc ng x Bin ng vi
Trung Quc, m mt s nh quan st ASEAN coi nm 2016 nh l mt
thi im "cp bch" do hnh vi ca Trung Quc ngang nhin xy
dng tri php cc o nhn to. Nu cc cuc m phn b ko di m

Nga cng b
video h thng
tn la va
chy va bn

Mt nm cng
thng Nga phng Ty:
S c xt quyt
lit gia hai i
chin lc

Tnh hnh
Ukraina s ra
sao trong nm
2016?

Pht hin nh
my ch to
bom ca IS
Iraq

Nga pht trin

h thng phng
khng chn
v kh siu
thanh

Nga yu cu
Tng thng Th
Nh K gi li
ha t chc

KH Ting Anh online 2

nm- Memoria.vn
muachung.vn

Phng php hiu qu t

gii thng v s nghip
gio dc ca Hi khuyn
hc. u i HOT
KH Ting Anh online 2
nm- Memoria.vn
muachung.vn

Phng php hiu qu t

gii thng v s nghip
gio dc ca Hi khuyn
hc. u i HOT
KH Ting Anh online 2
nm- Memoria.vn

http://dantri.com.vn/the-gioi/5-van-de-quan-trong-va-loat-cau-hoi-lon-ve-bien-dong-2... 30/12/2015

5 vn quan trng v lot cu hi ln v Bin ng | Th gii | Dn tr

Page 2 of 3

khng mang li bt k kt qu no, liu ASEAN c chuyn hng sang

tn cng ngoi giao hay khng?
Bn l, Trung Quc s hon tt vic xy dng v cng c cc c s h
tng trn 7 hn o nhn to m h bi p tri php Bin ng.
Tip theo s l g ? Ai s c ng trn cc thc th ? Thit b no
s c b tr trn ? Loi phi c hay tu bin no s n tr ?
Liu Trung Quc c t cn c ca lc lng Hi qun ca h v
s hung hng hn trong vic khng nh quyn ti phn i vi
Philippines v Vit Nam hay khng? Liu Trung Quc c qun s ha
cc o nhn to tri php bng cch t radar tm xa, h thng tn
la phng khng v chng hm i, pho binh, thit b chin tranh in
t v cu cng cho tu khu trc hay khng?
Nm l, bu c i Loan v Philippines s nh hng ra sao n cc
ng lc chnh tr-ngoi giao i vi nhng tranh chp hng hi Bin
ng? Ti i Loan, ng Dn Tin DPP liu c nhn mnh hn trong
vic i hi ch quyn v tch xa hn khi Trung Quc hay khng?
Mt Tng thng mi ca Philippines liu c "ha hon" hn vi Trung
Quc so vi ng kim Tng thng Aquino hay khng?

Cng theo chiu hng trn, Gio s Ng Vnh Long, thuc i hc

Maine (M), mt ngi theo di rt st h s Bin ng, cho rng: vn
cn theo di trong nm 2016 l v kin ca Philippines. Vit Nam
c th tn dng tin trin cng nh kt qu ca v kin ny vn
ng d lun th gii cng nh lp th trn cho Vit Nam.
Vic ny rt quan trng trn c lnh vc php l ln chnh tr. Thnh ra,
theo chiu hng ny, cng nn theo di tnh hnh chnh tr M trc
cuc bu c c th c nhng thc y ng lc v ng mc.
Trung Quc cng c th li dng vic M ch vo nhng chuyn ni
b trong nc tng p lc ti Bin ng ni ring v khu vc ng
Nam ni chung.
Cng theo Gio s Ng Vnh Long, vn ln nht cn quan tm l
cch ng x v hnh ng ca Vit Nam th hin s nng ng ra sao
cc nc khc, trong c M, c th c nhng hot ng tch cc
hn nhiu so vi nm 2015.
Qu Cao (theo RFI)
Xem thm : ch quyn trn bin ng, Philippines kin Trung Quc, Ta n
Trng ti thng trc, Gio s Carl Thayer, o nhn to, qun s ha

Gi

Thch

Chia s

In bi vit ny

Thch Trang

Ting Anh khng - T tin hi nhp!

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Luyn ni online t
8-24h hng ngy vi
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Click!

KH Ting Anh online 2 nmMemoria.vn

muachung.vn
Phng php hiu qu
t gii thng v s
nghip gio dc ca
Hi khuyn hc. u
i HOT

Cc bi ng

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