TRNG I HC TY NGUYN

KHOA NNG LM NGHIP

PGS.TS. BO HUY

TIN HC THNG K TRONG QUN L

TI NGUYN THIN NHIN
X l thng k bng phn mm Statgraphics
Centurion XV v MS. Excel 2007

Thng 5 nm 2009

Mc lc
1. TNG QUT V CHC NNG X L THNG K CA MS.EXCEL 2007 V
STATGRAPHICS CENTURION XV ............................................................................ 7
1.1.
1.2.

2.

Tng qut v phn x l thng k trong MS. Excel ................................................. 7

Tng qut v phn mm x l thng k Statgraphics Centurion ............................. 8

THNG K M T ........................................................................................... 10

3. SP XP V V BIU PHN B TN S XUT HIN THEO CP, C,

HNG ....................................................................................................................... 12
4.

SO SNH 1 2 MU QUAN ST BNG TIU CHUN T ............................... 14

4.1.
4.2.

5.

So snh mt mu vi mt gi tr cho trc Kim tra T mt mu ........................ 14

So snh s sai khc gia trung bnh 2 mu Kim tra T 2 mu ........................... 16

PHN TCH PHNG SAI ............................................................................... 19

5.1.
5.2.

Phn tch phng sai 1 nhn t vi cc th nghim ngu nhin hon ton ........... 19
Phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t ............................................................................. 22

5.1.1.
Phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t vi 1 ln lp li: (B tr th nghim theo khi ngu
nhin y (Randomized Complete Blocks) (RCB): ..................................................................22
5.1.2.
Phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t m ln lp ...................................................................28

6.

PHN TCH TNG QUAN - HI QUY ........................................................... 32

6.1.
6.2.

Hi quy tuyn tnh 1 lp ......................................................................................... 32

Dng phi tuyn a v tuyn tnh 1 lp ................................................................. 34

6.2.1.
6.2.2.

6.3.
6.4.
6.5.

7.

Lp m hnh hm m trong Excel: ...............................................................................34

Lp m hnh hm m mt lp trong Statgraphics:.......................................................36

c lng cc dng hi quy mt lp tuyn tnh hoc phi tuyn tnh trn th ... 40
Hi quy tuyn tnh nhiu lp .................................................................................. 45
Hi quy phi tuyn tnh nhiu lp, t hp bin......................................................... 47

M HNH HO QUY LUT PHN B .............................................................. 57

7.1.
7.2.
7.3.

M hnh ho phn b gim theo hm Meyer .......................................................... 57

M phng phn b thc nghim theo phn b khong cch-hnh hc: ................. 60
M phng phn b thc nghim theo phn b Weibull: ......................................... 62

LI NI U
Trong qun l ti nguyn thin nhin, ng dng cng ngh tin hc ng vai tr quan trng
trong phn tch, qun l c s d liu; trong ng dng tin hc trong x l thng k c p
dng ngy cng rng ri. Thng qua x l thng k trn cc phn mm, gip chng ta h
thng ha c s d liu, nh gi cc th nghim, phn tch cc mi quan h phc tp trong t
nhin v vi cc nhn t x hi tm ra quy lut nhm qun l bn vng. X l thng k
thng qua cng ngh tin hc ngy nay pht trin mt bc di, n gip cho con ngi rt
ngn c thi gian tnh ton, x l c mt lng ln thng tin v c c nhng hiu bit
mt cch khch quan cc quy lut t nhin v x hi. Do thnh tu ca cng ngh x l
thng k tin hc cn c ng dng mt cch rng ri hn trong quan l ti nguyn thin
nhin.
C rt nhiu phn mm ng dng x l thng k nh SPSS, Statgraphics, Excel....
Microsoft Excel c mi ngi bit n khi ni n cng c bng tnh, tnh tan..., nhng
nhng chc nng chuyn su v ng dng thng k trong sinh hc, qun l ti nguyn thin
nhin, mi trng li t c cp n. Trong khi chc nng x l thng k ca phn
mm Excel l ht sc phong ph v mnh ng dng trong cc th nghim, phn tch, nh
gi cc kt qu nghin cu, iu tra kho st v lm nghip, qun l ti nguyn thin nhin.
Trong bao gm cc x l thng k ph bin nh: Phn tch cc c trng mu, so snh cc
mu th nghim, phn tch phng sai, tng quan hi quy, d bo.. do phn mm Excel
c chn la gii thiu.
Cc phn mm thng k chuyn dng v ph bin trn th gii l Statgrahics, SPSS, . y
l cc phn mm thng k c ng dng rng trong hu ht cc lnh vc nghin cu, phn
tch d liu ca nhiu ngnh khc nhau v x hi, t nhin. ng dng mnh ca cc phn
mm ny l phn tch cc m hnh hi quy a bin dng tuyn tnh hay phi tuyn tnh vi cc
cch phn tch a dng nh hi quy lc, hi quy tng bc, t hp bin, m ha t ng cc
bin nh tnh, .. Do phn mm Statgraphics Centurion XV cng c gii thiu
ngi c c th tip cn vi cng c phn tch thng k ny.
Ti liu ny s khng i su vo l thuyt xc sut thng k, m thin v hng ng dng n
gin, d hiu, km theo cc v d ngi c c th thc hnh cc chc nng x l, phn
tch d liu bng Excel, Statgraphics Centurion XV mt cch nhanh chng, thun tin trong
hot ng qun l v nghin cu lm nghip, qun l ti nguyn thin nhin, mi trng.

1. TNG QUT V CHC NNG X L THNG K CA MS.EXCEL

2007 V STATGRAPHICS CENTURION XV
1.1. Tng qut v phn x l thng k trong MS. Excel
Excel thit k sn mt s chng trnh x l s liu v phn tch thng k c bn ng dng
trong nhiu lnh vc:
- Chc nng x l s liu, to bng tng hp d liu: Sp xp, tnh ton nhanh cc bng
tng hp t s liu th,...
- Chc nng ca cc hm: Cung cp hng lot cc hm v k thut, thng k, kinh t ti
chnh, hm tra cc ch tiu thng k nh t, F, 2
- Chc nng Data Analysis: Dng phn tch thng k nh phn tch cc c trng
mu, tiu chuNn t so snh s sai khc, phn tch phng sai, c lng cc tng
quan hi quy
- Phn tch m hnh tong quan hoc hi quy d bo cc thay i theo thi gian ngay
trn th.
Lu : V vic ci t chng
trinh phn tch d liu (Data Analysis)
trong Excel:
- Khi ci t phn mm Excel phi
thc hin trong ch chn la ci
t, sau phi chn mc: Add-Ins
v Analysis Toolpak.
- Khi chy Excel ln u cn m ch
phn tch d liu bng cch: Menu
Tools/Add-Ins v chn Analysis
Toolpak-OK. (i vi MS. Office
2003)

i vi MS. Office 2007, tin hnh m

ch phn tch thng k nh sau: Kch
vo Microsoft Office Button sau chn
excel options, kch vo Add-ins, v chn
Analysis ToolPak trong hp thoi - OK.

Nh vy trong thc t qun l d liu nng

lm nghip ni ring, vic khai thc ht tim nng ng dng ca Excel cng mang li hiu
qu tt m khng nht thit phi tm kim thm mt phn mm chuyn dng no khc. Vn
t ra l xc nh chin lc ng dng v khai thc ng v su cc cng c chc nng sn
c mt phn mm ph bin bt k mt vi tnh c nhn no.

8
Mt s hm thng dng trong thng k:
o Tnh tng: =Sum(dy s).
o Tng bnh phng: =Sumq(dy s).
o Trung bnh: =Average(dy s).
o Ly gi tr tuyt i: =Abs(s).
o Tr ln nht, nh nht: =Max(dy s), Min(dy s).
o Cc hm lng gic: =Cos(s), =Sin(s), =tan(s).
o Hm m, log: =Exp(s), =Ln(s), =Log(s).
o Cn bc 2: =Sqrt(s)..
o Sai tiu chuNn mu cha hiu nh: =Stdevp(dy s); hiu nh =Stdev(dy
s).
o Phng sai mu cha hiu nh: =Varp(dy s); hiu nh =Var(dy s).
o Giai tha: =Fact(n).
o S Pi: =Pi().
Tra cc gi tr T, F, 2:
Chn 1 ly gi tr tra.
Kch nt fx trn thanh cng c chuNn. Trong hp thoi Function Category, chn
Statistical.
Trong mc Function name, chn 1 trong cc hm:
Hm Tinv: tra T.
Hm Chiinv: tra 2.
Hm Finv: tra F.
Bm Next.
Trong hp thoi tip theo: Function Wizard chn:
o Probability (fx): G vo mc ngha =0.05 ; 0.01 hay 0.001.
o Degrees Freedom (fx): G vo bc t do. i vi tiu chuNn F cn ua vo 2
t do.
o Finish.
1.2. Tng qut v phn mm x l thng k Statgraphics Centurion
y l mt phn mm chuyn dng trong x l thng k, bao gm cc chc nng:
- To lp c s d liu di dng bng tnh
- Tnh ton cc c trng mu, v s , th quan h
- So snh hai hay nhiu mu bng cc tiu chuNn thng k t, U, F v nhiu tiu chuNn phi
tham s khc.
- Phn tch phng sai ANOVA.
- Kim tra tnh chuNn ca d liu v i bin s.
- Thit lp cc m hnh hi quy tuyn tnh hay phi tuyn tnh t mt cho n nhiu lp, t
hp bin. Vi cch x l a dng chn la c cc bin nh hng n mt hu qa
(bin ph thuc).

Giao tip trong Statgraphics Centurion, s liu u vo c th c nhp trc tip trong file
bng tnh v c s d liu; song vi cc lm ny i khi khng thun tin trong cc bc x
l s liu th nh i bin s, tnh cc bin trung gian, m ha bin s. Do thng thng
nn to lp c s d liu trong bng tnh Excel c th s dng nhng chc nng bng tnh
mnh ca n trong x l d liu th, to lp c s d liu; sau s nhp vo Statgraphics
Centurion tnh ton, thit lp m hnh, .... C s d liu lp trong Excel cn lu di dng
phin bn ca Excel 97 2003, v n cha nhn c file Excel version 2007.
Sau khi nhp d liu trong Excel 97-2003, ng file ca Excel v m n trong Statgrahics
Centurion nh sau: File/Open/Open Data Source; chn External Data File OK. Trong hp
thoi m file, chn kiu file Excel v chn file cn m to trc .

10

2. THNG K M T
c hiu bit r rng v mt i tng quan st nh sinh trng cy rng ca mt l rng,
s a dng loi ca ca l rng, bin ng mt ti sinh, t l sng ca trng rng, ..... cn
p dng thng k m t, bao gm tin hnh thu thp d liu ca mu v t tnh ton c
trng ca mu c lng cc ch tiu thng k c bn ca tng th . y l cc thng tin
c bn v mt i tng quan st, theo mt ch tiu, nhn t quan tm.
Cc c trng mu c m t bao gm tnh cc ch tiu c bn: S trung bnh, phng sai,
sai tiu chuNn, lch, nhn ca dy s liu quan st c v phm vi bin ng theo mt
tin cy cho trc.
V d: Kho st cc c trng c bn v sinh trng ca rng trng tch.
S liu o D1,3 rng trng Tch 14 tui trong tiu chuNn 500m2.
Cc c trng mu c th tnh ng thi trong Excel theo cc bc:
Nhp s liu theo ct hoc hng.
Menu Tools/Data Analyisis/Descriptive Statistics/OK (Hoc Data/Data Analysis
trong MS. Ofice 2007). C hp thoi, trong cn xc nh:
o Input range: Khai bo khi d liu.
o Grouped by: Chn d liu nhp theo ct (Columns) hoc hng (Rows).
o Label in first row: Nu a vo c hng tiu th nh du.
o Output range: nh vo a ch trn tri ni a ra kt qu.
o Summary Statistics: Thng tin tm lc cc c trng thng k (nh du).
o Confidence Level for Mean: Chn tnh cy: 90% hoc 95% hoc 99%
ty theo yu cu nh gi, phn tch ng lng.
o Kch nt OK
Bng nhp d liu ng knh D1.3 ca Tch

11
Bng khai bo tnh c trng mu

Kt qu tnh c trng mu
D1,3 (cm)

Mean

18,98

Standard Error

0,442

Median
Mode
Standard Deviation

19,1
19,42
3,16

Sample Variance

9,986

Kurtosis

0,852

Skewness

-0,227

Range

17,19

Minimum

9,868

Maximum

27,06

Sum
Count
Confidence Level (95,0%)

968
51
0,889

12
Gii thch kt qu:
o Mean (Xbq): S trung bnh.
o Standard Error: Sai s ca s trung bnh mu.
o Median: Trung v mu.
o Mode: Tr s ng vi tn s phn b tp trung nht.
o Standard deviation (S): Sai tiu chuNn mu.
o Sample variance: Phng sai mu.
o Kurtosis (Ku): nhn ca phn b.
o Skewness (Sk): lch ca phn b.
o Minimum: Tr s quan st b nht.
o Maximum: Tr s quan st ln nht.
o Sum: Tng cc tr s quan st.
o Count: Dung lng mu.
o Cofidence level (95%): Sai s tuyt i ca c lng vi tin cy 95%.
Vi kt qu phn tch c trng mu, rt ra c cc ch s thng k quan trng sau:
- Gi tr trung bnh v cc bin ng nh sai tiu chuNn, phng sai, max, min
- Mu quan st chuNn hay cha thng qua Ku v Sk. Mu tim cn chuNn th mi bo
m s liu quan st v cc gi tr c lng l tin cy theo tin cy cho trc; nu
khng th gi tr ny s sai lch trong thc t. Vi mt mu quan st t phn b chuNn khi
Ku v Sk xp x bng 0.
o Kurtosis: nhn ca phn b
Ku = 0 phn b thc nghim tim cn chuNn.
Ku > 0 ng cong c dng bt hn so vi phn b chuNn.
Ku < 0 ng cong c nh nhn hn so vi phn b chuNn.
V d Ku = Kurt(A2:A52) = 0.852. nh ng cong thp hn so vi phn b
chuNn.
o Skewness: lch ca phn b.
Sk = 0 phn b i xng.
Sk > 0 nh ng cong lch tri so vi s trung bnh.
Sk < 0 nh ng cong lch phi so vi s trung bnh.
V d trn Sk = Skew(A2:A52) = -0.227. ng cong hi lch phi.
o Minimum: Tr s quan st b nht.
Nu mu phn b cha chuNn th cn b sung mu theo cng thc mu cn thit nct:
. % /%
Trong V% l h s bin ng: % =

100 v % l sai s tng i cho trc.

- c lng phm vi bin ng ca gi tr trung bnh, trong v d trn vi tin cy 95% th

ng knh trung bnh ca khu rng tch 14 tui bin ng trong phm vi: 18.98 0.89 cm
Hay P(Xbq - Cofidence level (95%) Xbq + Cofidence level (95%) = 0.95

3. SP XP V V BIU PHN B TN S XUT HIN THEO

CP, C, HNG
y l chc nng sp xp bng phn b tn s theo mt nhn t theo tng cp, hng, ... v v
th phn b.
Trong nghin cu x hi, ngi ta cn nghin cu tn s phn b s ngi theo cp tui
bit s phn b con ngi theo cc th h c chin lc qun l ngun nhn lc.

13
Trong qun l ti nguyn thin nhin, thng cn nghin cu s phn b s lng c th loi
theo cp tui, cp kch thc bit c quy lut bin i c th theo th h, theo kch
thc, cht lng, ... l c s qun l, bo tn v nh hng khai thc s dng bn vng.
Trong lm nghip thng cn sp xp phn b s cy theo c knh (N/D), s cy theo c
chiu cao (N/H), s cy theo cp th tch (N/V), s cy theo loi cy theo cc tng rng, th
h t chc qun l iu ch rng.
V d cng t s liu quan st rng trng Tch 10 tui, tin hnh sp xp phn b thc
nghim N/H v v biu (cp H l 2m):
Np s liu chiu cao vo bng tnh theo ct.
Lp mt ct gii hn trn c knh. Vd: c 2m.
Bng tm tt d liu u vo

Menu Tools/Data Analysis/Histogram/OK (Data/Data Analysis trong MS Office

20907). Xut hin hp thoi, xc nh:
+ Input range: Khai bo khi d liu
+ Bin range: Khai bo khi cha c ly t.
+ Output range: Khai a ch trn tri ni a ra kt qu.
+ Cumulative percentage: Tnh phn trm tn s tch ly.(nh du).
+ Chart output: V biu . (nh du chn).
+ OK.

14
Kt qa sp xp phn b tn s

Kt qu sp xp tn s cho c mt dy d liu theo cp v biu phn b. N phn nh

c th hn c trng mu v cho thy hnh nh ca kiu dng phn b theo cp, th h; t
gip cho vic phn tch qun th v a ra quyt nh qun l, s dng bn vng. V d trong
biu trn, s cy phn ha kh mnh theo cp chiu cao, mt s cy sinh trng km cp
chiu cao nh 8 12m, mt s cy vt tn c cp H trn 22m; gii php ngh y l ta
tha loi b bt cy sinh trng km c H < 12m v c th ta tha mt s cy ln vi
H>22m li dng trung gian, lc ny c th s c kch thc tp trung trong phm vi 14
22m v c khng gian dinh dng pht trin.

4. SO SNH 1 2 MU QUAN ST BNG TIU CHUN T

Kim tra mu bng tiu chuNn t da vo gi thit phn phi chuNn ca mu quan st. C hai
loi kim tra t: kim tra t mt mu (one-sample t-test), v t cho hai mu (two-sample t-test).
Kim tra t mt mu nh gi s trung bnh ca mt mu c phi tht s bng mt ga tr
no hay khng?. Kim tra t hai mu th so snh hai mu c cng mt lut phn phi,
hay c th hn l hai mu c tht s c cng tr s trung bnh hay khng? Hay ni khc i c
s sai khc gia hai mu quan st hay khng?
4.1. So snh mt mu vi mt gi tr cho trc Kim tra T mt mu
Trong m t quan st mt mu, ngi ta c th c yu cu nh gi gi tr trung bnh ca mu
vi mt gi tr cho trc, v d t o m chiu cao ca cy ti sinh trong rng khp, so snh
vi mt gi tr cho trc v chiu cao mong i cy rng vt qua c la rng, xem tht
s chiu cao ti sinh ca l rng t yu cu hay cha?

15
gii quyt vn ny, s dng kim nh t mt mu. Theo l thuyt thng k cng thc t
kim tra mt mu vi mt gi tr cho trc:

=

Trong , Xbq l gi tr trung bnh ca mu, l trung bnh theo gi thuyt, S l sai tiu
chuNn v n l s lng mu quan st.
- Nu gi tr tuyt |t| tnh cao hn gi tr t l thuyt mc sai c ngha, thng l 5% th c
th kt lun c s khc bit c ngha thng k gia trung bnh mu vi gi tr cho trc
. V trong trng hp ny nu t tnh <0 th c ngha trung bnh ca mu nh thua c
ngha so vi trung bnh l thuyt, ngc li nu t tnh > 0 th trung bnh ca mu ln hn
c ngha so vi trung bnh l thuyt
- Nu |t| tnh t(0.05, df) th c th kt lun mc sai 5% trung bnh mu quan st xp x
vi trung bnh l thuyt.
Trong t l thuyt c tnh theo hm =tinv(0.05, df), vi t do df = n-1.
S liu o cao cy ti sinh rng khp trong Excel
Chiu
cao cy
ti sinh
(m)

Stt
1

1.5

1.3

0.8

1.9

1.7

2.2

2.5

1.0

0.7

10

1.9

11

1.8

58

1.6

59

2.0

60

1.9

61

1.7

tnh c gi tr t, cn tnh ton c trng mu c cc gi tr thng k v Xbq, S.

16
Kt qu tnh c trng mu ti sinh rng khp
Chiu cao cy ti sinh (m)
Mean
Standard Error
Median
Mode
Standard Deviation
Sample Variance
Kurtosis
Skewness
Range
Minimum
Maximum
Sum
Count

1.64
0.06318
1.7
1.9
0.49347
0.24351
-0.4499
-0.4627
1.8
0.7
2.5
100.3
61

Confidence Level(95.0%)

0.12638

T tnh gi tr thng k t: So snh trung bnh chiu cao ti sinh vi gi tr l thuyt =2m
1.64 2
=
= 5.63
0.493
61
V t l thuyt: t (0.05, df = n-1) = tinv(0.05, 60) = 2.00
Kt qu cho thy |t| = 5.63 > t(0.05, 60). Kt lun: C s sai khc c ngha gia trung bnh
chiu cao cy ti sinh rng khp vi gi tr trung bnh l thuyt mong i l 2m. V t < 0 do
c ngha l chiu cao trung bnh cy ti sinh nh thua c ngha khi so vi chiu cao
mong i l 2m; hay ni khc nu vi yu cu cao trn 2m th mi thot c nh hng ca
la rng, th l rng ny cy ti sinh cha t c.
4.2. So snh s sai khc gia trung bnh 2 mu Kim tra T 2 mu
Trong cc th nghim thng ngi ta cn so snh kt qu ca 2 cng thc, v d: Bn phn
khc nhau, tn che khc nhau, sinh trng ca cy c xut x khc nhau, ni b tc ng
nh hng v ni khng, sinh trng cy rng ni chy v khng chy.....Vic kim tra tin
hnh theo 2 mu trn c s so snh 2 s trung bnh bng cc tiu chuNn t.
Cng thc tnh gi tr kim tra t:
t=

X1 X 2
2

( n1 1) S1 + ( n 2 1) S 2
n1 + n 2 2

Vi:

1
1
+
)
n1 n 2

X1, X2: Trung bnh ca mu 1 v 2.

S12, S22: Phng sai mu 1 v 2.
n1, n2: dung lng 2 mu 1 v 2.
Nu t tnh ln hn t bng vi =0.05 v t do K=n1+n2-2 th bc b gi thuyt Ho,
c ngha trung bnh 2 mu sai khc c ngha, v ngi ta s chn mu c trung bnh cao.

17
Trc khi s dng tiu chun t, cn kim tra 2 iu kin:
o Hai mu c phn b chuNn.
o Phng sai ca hai mu c bng nhau hay khng
Hai mu c phn b chun: Trong thc t nghin cu sinh hc, trng hp dung
lng mi mu >30 th c th xem l tim cn chuNn.
Kim tra s bng nhau ca 2 phng sai ca 2 mu bng tiu chun F.
Trc khi chn la tiu chuNn t so snh trung bnh 2 mu, cn kim tra s sai khc phng
sai ca chng bng tiu chuNn F.
V d: Kim tra sinh trng chiu cao H ca 2 phng php trng thng 3 l Pinus. kesiya
bng cy con v r trn ti trm thc nghim Lang Hanh-Lm ng: Mi cng thc c rt
mu theo tiu chuNn 1000m2, o m chiu cao:
- Dung lng quan st mi mu >90cy, nn chp nhn gi thuyt phn b NH ca tng mu tim cn chuNn; hoc c th kim tra thm qua Sk v Ku
mi mu.
- Kim tra bng nhau ca 2 phng sai bng tiu chuNn F:
Bng tm tt s liu sinh trng H ca hai mu
1

H (cy con)

H (r trn)

13,6

13

14

13,5

13,8

12

13

13,5

11

15

12

14

12,5

10

93
94

Tnh F: Mt trong 2 cch:

C1: Kch nt fx, c hp thoi: Chn: Statistical (trong Function Category) v
Ftest-Next (trong Function name): Xut hin hi thoi tip theo:
Array 1: a vo dy 1: A2:A93
Array 2: a vo dy 2: B2:B94
Finish.
C2: a n kt qu: =Ftest(A2:A93,B2:b94) Enter.
Nu gi tr xc sut P > 0.05, kt lun hai phng sai bng nhau, nu ngc li th
bc b.
Kt qu v d trn c P=0.40>0.05, kt lun phng sai hai mu bng nhau (cha c
sai d r).

Dng tiu chun t kim tra gi thuyt Ho theo trnh t:

18
Trong menu Tools/Data Analysis: Chn trong hp thoi mt trong hai trng hp tu
theo phng sai hai mu c bng nhau hay khng qua kim tra bng F bc trc
o t-Test: Two sample assuming equal variance (Trng hp phng sai bng
nhau).
o t-Test: Two sample assuming unequal variance (Trng hp phng sai
khng bng nhau).

Trong Hp thoi: Xc nh:

o Variable 1 range: Khi d liu mu 1 (A1:A93)
o Variable 2 range: Khi d liu mu 2 (B1:B94)
Nn a c tiu .
o Hypothesized mean diference: a vo 0 (C ngha gi thuyt Ho=0).
o Label: Nu c a hng tiu vo th cn nh du vi label
o Output range: a a ch trn tri ni xut kt qu.
o OK.
Nu: P(T<=t) two tail (hai chiu) <0.05, bc b Ho, c ngha 2 mu sai d r, ngc
li th trung bnh hai mu cha c sai khc.
Hoc |t Stat| > t Critical two tail (t hai chiu), bc b Ho, hai mu sai d r,
ngc li th sai khc l ngu nhin.

19
t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Equal
Variances
H (cy con)

H (r trn)

Mean

11,60434783

13,40322581

Variance

2,559761108

2,148141655

92

93

Observations
Pooled Variance
Hypothesized Mean
Difference
df
t Stat

2,352826738
0
183
-7,975469453

P(T<=t) one-tail

7,98781E-14

t Critical one-tail

1,653222625

P(T<=t) two-tail

1,59756E-13

t Critical two-tail

1,973012331

T kt qu trn cho thy sinh trng ca P.kesiya trng bng 2 phng php khc
nhau sai d r. Chiu cao bnh qun cy trng bng r trn hn hn trng bng cy con, do vy
phng php trng thng 3 l bng r trn cn c ng dng.

5. PHN TCH PHNG SAI

Phn tch phng sai l mt trong nhng phng php phn tch thng k quan trng,
c bit l trong cc th nghim ging, th nghim cc nhn t tc ng n hiu qu, cht
lng ca cy trng, vt nui, gieo um, kim nghim xut x cy trng. Ch yu nh gi
nh hng ca cc cng thc, nhn t n kt qu th nghim, lm c s cho vic la chn
cng thc, phng php ti u trong nng lm nghip.
iu kin phn tch phng sai l:
Cc gi tr quan st trong tng th nghim c phn b chuNn:
Nu dung lng quan st ln (n>30) th chp nhn gi thuyt phn b chuNn.
Cc phng sai ca tng nhn t bng nhau: Kim tra bng tiu chuNn Cochran
(nu s ln lp li bng nhau), bng tiu chuNn Bartlett (nu s ln lp ca cc
cng thc khng bng nhau).
5.1. Phn tch phng sai 1 nhn t vi cc th nghim ngu nhin hon
ton
Phn tch ny c mt nhn t nh xut x cy trng, mt trng khc nhau, ch chm
sc khc nhau, ....Trong nhn t c chia thnh a cng thc, mi cng thc c lp li
m ln, s ln lp ca mi cng thc c th bng hoc khng bng nhau.
Trong trng hp ny c th s dng chng trnh phn tch phng sai mt nhn t kim
tra nh hng ca cc cng thc n kt qu th nghim.
V d: nh gi kt qu kho nghim xut x Pinus caribeae ti Lang Hanh-Lm ng.
Theo d kin s c 10 xut x P.caribeae c trng kho nghim ti trm thc nghim Lang
Hanh nm 1991. Vic b tr th nghim ban u d kin tin hnh theo khi ngu nhin

20
y RCB (Randomized Complete Blocks), bao gm 10 cng thc ch th 10 xut x v
c lp li 4 khi.
Nhng trong qu trnh trin khai trng thc nghim, ch cn li 7 xut x v ch c 5 xut x
lp li 4 ln, cn 2 xut x ch c lp li 2 ln.
7 xut x P.caribeae c trng thc t, c nh s v lp li nh sau:
1: Xut x
P.alamicamba (NIC) lp li 4 ln.
2:
P.poptun (Guat)

4
3:
P.guanaja (Nonduras)
4
4:
P.linures (Nonduras)
4
5:
P.R482 (Australia)
2
6:
P.T473 (Australia)

4
8:
P.little asaco (Bahamas)
2
o Mi xut x ng vi 1 ln lp c trng 25 cy, vi c ly 3x2m, tng din tch b tr
th nghim l 1ha.
o Cc iu kin t ai, vi kh hu, ia hnh, chm sc...u c ng nht, nhn t
thay i kho st ch cn li l cc xut x khc nhau.
o Ti thi im iu tra (1996), cy trng trong cc th nghim c tui l 5. Tin hnh
o m ton din cc ch tiu D1,3, H, Dt, phNm cht, ta cnh, hnh thn. S dng 2 ch
tiu D1,3 v H nh gi sinh trng ca cc xut x th nghim.
Dng phn tch phng sai nh gi s sai khc v sinh trng cc xut x
Trc ht kim tra 2 iu kin phn tch phng sai:
o iu kin phn b chuNn: Cc gi tr quan st tng th nghim qua kim c dng
tim cn chuNn nn chp nhn gi thuyt phn b chuNn.
o Phng sai bng nhau: Do dung lng mu cc xut x khng bng nhau nn dng
tiu chuNn Bartlett kim tra, kt qu tnh c:
X2 = 3,73 < X2 (0,05 ; 6) = 12,59
Do chp nhn gi thuyt bng nhau ca cc phng sai mu.
Nh vy 2 iu kin trn l tha mn tin hnh phn tch phng sai.
Dng phn tch phng sai 1 nhn t kim tra. Trong nhn t l Xut x vi 7 cng
thc:

21
Gi tr D1,3 (cm) bnh qun ng vi tng th nghim ca cc Xut x theo khi (ln lp
li)
1

Xut x

Khi 1

Khi 2

Khi 3

Khi 4

10.8

11.2

10.4

9.9

12.3

11.5

9.5

10.0

9.4

10.5

11.0

9.5

9.0

10.8

11.5

8.7

14.2

12.9

12.3

12.5

12.4

10.8

7.0

9.8

Phn tch phng sai 1 nhn t:

Vo menu Tools/Data Analysis/Anova (Hoc Data/Data Analysis/Anova trong
MS. Ofice 2007): Chn ANOVA Single Factor c c Hp thoi:
o Input range: Nhp a ch khi d liu. Vd: A2:E8. (C ct u cha s hiu
cng thc, nhng b hng u).
o Grouped by: Chn Columns hoc Rows.
o nh du vo Label in first colum (row).
o Output range: a a ch trn tri ni xut kt qu.
o Kch OK.
Khai bo phn tch ANOVA 1 nhn t

22

Kt qu phn tch phng sai 1 nhn t

Anova: Single Factor
SUMMARY
Groups

Count

Sum

Average

Variance

42.3

10.6

0.299523

43.2

10.8

1.703825

40.3

10.1

0.616404

40.0

10.0

1.780196

27.1

13.5

0.797116

48.1

12.0

0.673895

16.7

8.4

3.903367

ANOVA
Source of Variation

SS

df

MS

Between Groups

37.53507

6.255846

Within Groups

19.92201

17

1.171883

Total

57.45708

23

F
5.338286

P-value
0.002925

F crit
2.698656

T bng ANOVA nhn c: i vi cc xut x khc nhau: F = 5,33 > F(0,05) = 2,69. Kt
lun: Cc xut x khc nhau c s sai khc v sinh trng ng knh. Nu ngc li th kt
lun rng gia cc xut x cha c s sai khc v sinh trng.
Trn c s chn hai xut x c trung bnh cao nht v th hai so snh bng tiu chuNn t.
Kt qu cho thy khoogn c sai khc.
Nh vy, xt theo ch tiu ng knh, xut x ti u trong 7 xut x kho nghim l 5 v 6,
hai xut x ny c ch tiu D ln nht, cha c sai d vi nhau v c sai khc r rt vi cc
xut x cn li. l 2 xut x: P.R482 (Australia) v P.T473 (Australia).
5.2. Phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t
Trong cc th nghim ngi ta thng so snh v phn tch tc ng ng thi 2 nhn t (v
d nh t v xut x) ln kt qu th nghim nh: nng sut, sinh khi... Phn tch phng
sai lc ny chia 2 trng hp: Hai nhn t vi mt ln lp v Hai nhn t vi nhiu ln lp
li.
5.1.1. Phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t vi 1 ln lp li: (B tr th nghim theo
khi ngu nhin y (Randomized Complete Blocks) (RCB):
Kiu b tr th nghim RCB thng c s dng, nhn t A chia lm a cp v c lp li
b khi (nhn t B).
V d: nh gi kt qu kho nghim 16 xut x Pinus kesiya ti Lang Hanh-Lm ng: 16
xut x P.kesiya c trng kho nghim ti trm thc nghim Lang Hanh nm 1991.
Vic b tr th nghim c tin hnh theo khi ngu nhin y RCB (Randomized
Complete Blocks), bao gm 16 cng thc ch th 16 xut x v c lp li 4 cp t (khi)

23

16 xut x P.kesiya c nh s nh sau:

1: Xut x
Bengliet.
2:
Faplac.
3:
Xun Th.
4:
Thc Prenn.
5:
Lang Hanh.
6:
Nong Kiating.
7:
Doisupthep.
8:
Doiinthranon.
9:
Phu Kradung.
10:
Nam nouv.
11:
Cotomines.
12:
Simao.
13:
Watchan.
14:
Zo khua.
15:
Aung ban.
16:
Jingdury.
o Mi cng thc ng vi 1 ln lp c trng 25 cy, vi c ly 3x2m, tng din tch b
tr th nghim l 1,5ha.
o Cc kh hu, a hnh, chm sc...u c ng nht, nhn t thay i kho st ch
cn li l cc xut x v cp t khc nhau.
o Ti thi im iu tra (1996), cy trng trong cc th nghim c tui l 5. Tin hnh
o m ton din cc ch tiu D1,3, H, Dt, phNm cht, ta cnh, hnh thn. S dng 2 ch
tiu D1,3 v H nh gi sinh trng ca cc xut x th nghim.
Dng phn tch phng sai nh gi s sai khc v sinh trng, c th cho tng ch
tiu sinh trng nh sau:
Trc ht kim tra 2 iu kin phn tch phng sai:
iu kin phn b chuNn: Cc gi tr quan st tng th nghim qua kim tra bo
m cc mu tim cn chuNn nn chp nhn gi thuyt phn b chuNn.
Phng sai bng nhau: Dng tiu chuNn Cochran, kt qu tnh c:
Gmax = 0,11 < Gmax (0,05 ; 16 ; 3) = 0,28
Do chp nhn gi thuyt bng nhau ca cc phng sai mu.
Nh vy 2 iu kin trn l tha mn tin hnh phn tch phng sai.
Dng phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t 1 ln lp kim tra:
Vi nhn t th nht l 16 xut x, nhn t th 2 l cp t vi 4 cp. ng vi 1 t
hp Xut x - Cp t ch c 1 th nghim (lp li 1 ln).

24
Bng d liu phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t 1 ln lp
Gi tr D1,3 (cm) bnh qun ng vi tng th nghim
A
1

Xut x Cp t 1 Cp t 2 Cp t 3 Cp t 4

11.4

11.3

10.8

13.3

11.4

11.6

10.9

10.9

11.7

12.6

11.7

12.6

13.7

12.1

11.6

11.7

14.1

13.6

13.7

13.7

13.5

11.4

12.2

11.3

13.8

12.3

12.6

11.4

14.1

13.3

15.2

13.0

10

13.8

11.8

11.9

12.1

11

10

11.3

11.8

12.1

11.8

12

11

12.6

12.6

13.3

10.9

13

12

11.3

12.4

10.5

12.0

14

13

12.7

13.4

12.1

10.7

15

14

10.1

9.5

9.8

8.0

16

15

10.5

9.4

9.1

10.9

17

16

10.2

11.0

10.8

11.9

Phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t 1 ln lp:

o Tools/Data Analysis/Anova: Two Factor Without Replication - OK.
o Hp thoi:
Input range: a ch khi d liu (Nn qut c hng, ct u lm nhn). Vd:
A1:E17
nh du vo Labels.
Output range: a ch trn tri ni xut kt qu
OK

25

Kt qu phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t 1 ln lp li

Anova: Two-Factor Without Replication
SUMMARY

Count

Sum

Average

Variance

46.9

11.7

1.253512

44.8

11.2

0.156318

48.6

12.2

0.268337

49.1

12.3

0.933224

55.1

13.8

0.049285

48.5

12.1

1.064903

50.0

12.5

0.975826

55.7

13.9

0.926688

49.7

12.4

0.817143

10

47.0

11.7

0.107475

11

49.3

12.3

1.054463

12

46.1

11.5

0.664541

13

48.9

12.2

1.255351

14

37.4

9.3

0.85117

15

39.9

10.0

0.763403

16

43.9

11.0

0.514494

26
Cp t 1

16

196.1

12.3

2.077919

Cp t 2

16

190.2

11.9

1.470334

Cp t 3

16

188.3

11.8

2.263297

Cp t 4

16

186.3

11.6

1.767392

ANOVA
Source of Variation

SS

df

MS

P-value

F crit

Rows

82.11826

15 5.474551 7.804468 3.58E-08 1.894875

Columns

3.402532

3 1.134177 1.616873 0.198718 2.811547

Error

31.56586

45 0.701464

Total

117.0867

63

T bng ANOVA nhn c:

i vi cc xut x khc nhau (Hng - Rows): F = 7,80 > F(0,05) = 1,89. Kt lun:
Cc xut x khc nhau c s sai khc v sinh trng ng knh.
i vi cc cp t (Ct Collumns):
F = 1,62 < F(0,05) = 2,81. Kt lun:
Cc cp t khc nhau cha c nh hng n sinh trng.
Nh vy 16 xut x khi trng Lang Hanh c sinh trng khc nhau, do vic cp
t khng nh hng rt, nn nh gi chnh xc hn ch cn phn tch phng sai 1 nhn
t (xut x):

27
Phn tch phng sai 1 nhn t
Anova: Single Factor
SUMMARY
Groups

Count

Sum

Average

Variance

46.9

11.7

1.253512

44.8

11.2

0.156318

48.6

12.2

0.268337

49.1

12.3

0.933224

55.1

13.8

0.049285

48.5

12.1

1.064903

50.0

12.5

0.975826

55.7

13.9

0.926688

49.7

12.4

0.817143

10

47.0

11.7

0.107475

11

49.3

12.3

1.054463

12

46.1

11.5

0.664541

13

48.9

12.2

1.255351

14

37.4

9.3

0.85117

15

39.9

10.0

0.763403

16

43.9

11.0

0.514494

ANOVA
Source of Variation
Between Groups
Within Groups

Total

SS

df

MS

82.11826

15

5.474551

34.9684

48

0.728508

117.0867

63

F
7.514741

P-value
3.59E-08

F crit
1.880174

Kt qu t bng ANOVA cho thy F = 7,51 > F(0,05) = 1,88. Kt lun: Sinh trng
ng knh ca 16 xut x l khc nhau khi trng Lang Hanh.

28
Sinh trng bnh qun ng knh cc xut x theo th t t cao n thp bng sau:
Th t sinh trng ng knh t tt n xu
Xut x

D1,3 tb(cm)
8

13.9

13.8

12.5

12.4

11

12.3

12.3

13

12.2

12.2

12.1

10

11.7

11.7

12

11.5

11.2

16

11.0

15

10.0

14

9.3

Xut x 8 c gi tr trung bnh cao nht, sau dng tiu chuNn t so snh sinh trng
ng knh ln nht ca xut x 8 vi cc xut x c ng knh ln lt nh hn. Kt qu
cho thy xut x 8 khng c sai d vi xut x c trung bnh th hai l xut x 5.
Nh vy, xt theo ch tiu ng knh, xut x ti u trong 16 xut x kho nghim l 8 v 5,
hai xut x ny c ch tiu D ln nht, cha c sai d vi nhau v c sai khc r rt vi cc
xut x cn li. l 2 xut x: Doiinthranon v Lang Hanh.
5.1.2. Phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t m ln lp
Trng hp ny mi t hp nhn t A v B c lp li m ln mt cch ngu nhin. Lc ny
ngoi vic nh gi nh hng ca tng nhn t A, B cn phi tnh nh hng qua li ca
chng n kt qu th nghim.
V d: Nghin cu nh hng ca hai nhn t th nghim l mt v bn phn n nng sut
ca bng.
o Nhn t A: Mt chia lm 3 cp.
o Nhn t B: Phn bn c chia lm 4 mc
o Mi t hp c th nghim lp li ngu nhin 4 ln.

29
Bng s liu sn lng bng theo t hp 2 nhn t v lp li 4 ln mt t hp
(/v: T/ha)
A

A2

A3

B\A

A1

B1

16

17

18

14

15

18

21

17

19

16

19

17

19

19

20

20

18

23

23

18

21

19

20

21

19

21

22

11

21

21

18

12

22

22

21

13

20

23

21

20

20

25

15

24

20

22

16

21

22

21

17

17

19

23

10

14

B2

B3

B4

Phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t m ln lp:

o Tools/Data Analysis/Anova: Two Factor With Replication- OK.
o Hp thoi: Xc nh:
Input range: Nhp khi d liu k c hng ct tiu . Vd: A1:D17.
Rows per sample: Nhp s ln lp. Vd: 4.
Output range: Nhp a ch trn tri ni xut kt qu.
OK.

30

Khai bo phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t m ln lp

Kt qu phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t m ln lp

Anova: Two-Factor With Replication
SUMMARY

3 Total

12

67

68

72

207

Average

16,75

17

18

17,25

Variance

8,916667

2,666667

0,666667

3,659091

12

81

75

85

241

Average

20,25

18,75

21,25

20,08333

Variance

3,583333

0,916667

1,583333

2,810606

12

82

87

82

251

1
Count
Sum

2
Count
Sum

3
Count
Sum

31
Average

20,5

21,75

20,5

20,91667

Variance

1,666667

0,916667

1,901515

12

82

81

91

254

Average

20,5

20,25

22,75

21,16667

Variance

8,333333

1,583333

2,916667

4,878788

16

16

16

Sum

312

311

330

Average

19,5

19,4375

20,625

Variance

7,2

4,529167

4,783333

4
Count
Sum

Total
Count

ANOVA
Source of Variation

SS

df

MS

P-value

F crit

Sample

116,2292

38,74306

12,65079

8,45E-06

2,866265

Columns

14,29167

7,145833

2,333333

0,111468

3,259444

Interaction

21,20833

3,534722

1,154195

0,352014

2,363748

110,25

36

3,0625

261,9792

47

Within

Total

Bng Summary: Cho kt qu tnh ton tng t hp nhn t A/B v chung cho tng
nhn t B, nhn t A, gm cc ch tiu: Dung lng (Count), Tng (Sum), Trung
bnh (Average), Phng sai (Variance).
Bng ANOVA:
Ct u tin l cc ngun bin ng:
o Sample: Bin ng do nhn t B to nn (do c xp theo hng).
o Columns: Bin ng do nhn t A to nn (do c xp theo ct).
o Interaction: Tc ng qua li.
o Within: Bin ng ngu nhin.
o Total: Bin ng chinh ca n gi tr quan st.
T kt qu ny cho thy:
FB = 12.65 > F0.05 = 2.87. Kl: Phn bn c tc ng r rt n nng sut bng.
FA = 2.33 < F0.05 = 3.26. Kl: Mt nh hng khng r n nng sut bng.
FAB = 1.15 < F0.05 = 3.36. Kl: ng thi thay i mt v phn bn nh hng
khng r n nng sut.
Lc ny ch cn vic la chn cng thc bn phn ti u. Qua s trung bnh nng sut theo
tng cng thc bn phn cho thy cng thc 4 c nng sut cao nht l 21.16 t/ha. C th
dng tiu chuNn t kim tra li xem cng thc 4 c sai khc vi cng thc no cn li la
chn cng thc c hiu qu nht.

32

6. PHN TCH TNG QUAN - HI QUY

Trong thc t ngi ta cn lp cc m hnh tng quan hi quy v cc mc ch:
o c lng mt nhn t kh o m (gi l bin ph thuc y) thng qua mt hay
nhiu bin d quan st, o m (gi l bin c lp x) v tt nhin l phi c mi lin
h gia y v x. T y c th lp cc biu iu tra phc v cho vic gim nh cc quan
st o m mt s nhn t phc tp
o d bo mt nhn t trong tng lai (gi l bin d bo y) vi mt s bin c lp,
u vo (gi l l bin c lp x)
o nghin cu tc ng, nh hng ca mt hoc nhiu nhn t n mt yu t cn
quan tm nh sinh trng, sn lng, cht lng rng, xi mn t, dng chy lu
vc. Trn c s c gii php k thut thch hp hoc cc bin php qun l quy
hoch cp v m.
Mc ch l s dng chng trnh Excel hoc Statgraphics thit lp cc m hnh tng
quan/hi quy tuyn tnh t mt cho n nhiu bin s c lp. Trong chng trnh ny, cc
tham s c c lng bng phng php bnh phng ti thiu. Ring cc dng phi tuyn
khi ng dng chng trnh ny cn i bin s quy v dng tuyn tnh.
6.1. Hi quy tuyn tnh 1 lp
Hi quy tuyn tnh mt lp c ngha l c mt bin s c lp x c nghin cu nh hng
n bin ph thuc y, dng quan h c xc nh l ng thng. C ngha l khi x tng
hoc gim th y cng tng hoc gim u theo dng c thng. Dng phng trnh tng qut:
Y = A + B.X.
Vd: Lp m hnh tng quan gia chiu cao di cnh (Hdc) vi chiu cao c cy (H) rng
Tch dng ng thng: Hdc = A + B.H. V Hdc l ch tiu kh o m hn H, nn dng
quan h ny xc nh Hdc thng qua H.
Nhp s liu theo bng:
Cc cp s liu Hdc - H
1

Hdc(m)

H(m)

22,0

23,0

21,8

23,0

21,5

22,3

.....

.....

.....

40

9,7

10,9

41

9,8

11,1

c lng tng quan hi quy ng thng:

o Tools/Data Analysis/Regression (Data/Data Analysis/Regression trong
MS. Office 2009). OK.
o Hp thoi:
Input Y range: Nhp a ch ct bin Y (C th nhp c nhn). Vd: A1:A41.
Input X range: Nhp a ch ct bin X (C th nhp c nhn). Vd: B1:B41.
Label: nh du nu nhp c hng u lm nhn.

33
Output range: Nhp a ch trn tri ni xut kt qu.
OK.
Khai bo chy tng quan tuyn tnh 1 lp

Kt qu c lng hi quy tuyn tnh 1 lp

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R

0,998189546

R Square

0,99638237

Adjusted R Square

0,996287169

Standard Error

0,318271114

Observations

40

ANOVA
df

SS

Regression

MS

1060,180842

1060,181

Residual

38

3,84926708

0,101297

Total

39

1064,030109

Coefficients

Standard Error

t Stat

F
10466,12

P-value

Significance F
5,24804E-48

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

Intercept

-0,715306008

0,127254043

-5,62109

1,88E-06

-0,972918358

-0,457693658

Hgo(m)

0,994341123

0,009719471

102,304

5,25E-48

0,974665081

1,014017165

34

Phng trnh tng quan:

Hdc = - 0.715 + 0.994.H
Vi N = 40 R = 0.998
Fr = 10466.12 vi <0.0000 nn R tn ti (khc 0)
T phng trnh hi quy, c th xc nh Hdc gin tip qua H.
6.2. Dng phi tuyn a v tuyn tnh 1 lp
Trong thc t bin y c th khng c dng quan h ng thng vi x, do cn s dng m
hnh phi tuyn. Trng hp cc hm phi tuyn, c lng cn bin i thnh dng tuyn
tnh c lng trong cc phn mm Excel, Statgraphics hoc ngay trn th ca Excel.
Mt s hm phi tuyn ph bin nh:
y = a.x b tuyn tnh ha: ln(y) = ln(a) + b.ln(x)
y = a.e bx tuyn tnh ha: ln(y) = ln(a) + b.x
6.2.1. Lp m hnh hm m trong Excel:
V d: Lp m hnh tng quan H/D rng trng Tch dng hm m:
H = a.Db
Tuyn tnh ha: Logarit neper 2 v:
Ln(H) = Ln(a) + b.Ln(D)
t
Y = Ln(H)
X = Ln(D)
A = Ln(a)
B = b.
Vy Y = A + B.X

o
o
o
o

Nhp s liu v i bin s:

Ct A: S liu D.
Ct B: S liu H.
Ct C: Ln(D). Ti C2: =Ln(A2), copy cho c ct.
Ct D: Ln(H). Ti D2: =Ln(B2), copy cho c ct.
S liu H/D v i bin s
1

D(cm)

H(m)

Ln(D)

Ln(H)

31,3

22,0

3,443863

3,091042

32,0

21,8

3,466237

3,08191

...

...

....

.....

.....

....

....

....

.....

.....

40

12,6

9,7

2,536373

2,270804

41

13,9

9,8

2,629481

2,277972

c lng tng quan hi quy ng thng trong Excel:

o Tools/Data Analysis/Regression. OK.
o Hp thoi:
Input Y range: Nhp a ch ct bin Y (C th nhp c nhn). Vd: D1:D41.
Input X range: Nhp a ch ct bin X (C th nhp c nhn). Vd: C1:C41.
Label: nh du nu nhp c hng u lm nhn.

35
Output range: Nhp a ch trn tri ni xut kt qu.
Kch OK.
i bin s v khai bo lp m hnh phi tuyn 1 lp v tuyn tnh

Kt qu c lng hi quy tuyn tnh

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R

0,940772849

R Square

0,885053553

Adjusted R
Square
Standard Error

0,882028647
0,166400069

Observations

40

ANOVA
df
Regression

SS

MS

8,101484412

8,101484

Residual

38

1,052181354

0,027689

Total

39

9,153665766
t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Intercept

-0,78748559

Standard
Error
0,182988537

-4,30347

0,000114

-1,157926531

-0,417044653

Ln(D)

1,153364313

0,067427602

17,10523

1,92E-19

1,016864265

1,289864361

Coefficients

292,5887

Significance F
1,92186E-19

Upper 95%

36
Phng trnh tng quan:
Ln(H) = -0.787 + 1.153Ln(D)
Vi N = 40 R = 0.941
Fr = 292.59 vi <0.0000, nn R tn ti
a v dng nguyn thy: Tnh a = exp(A) = exp(-0.787) = 0.455
Vy:
H = 0.455.D1.153
6.2.2. Lp m hnh hm m mt lp trong Statgraphics:
Trong Statgraphics, vic c lng m hnh phi tuyn tnh n gin hn v khng cn to
thm cc ct i bin s, bin s c i trc tip trong hp thoi khi thit lp m hnh.
u tin nhp d liu trong Excel vi hai ct x v y, v d l D v H nh sau

File d liu Excel cn c lu vi version ca Microsoft Excel 97-2003 v trc, v

Statgraphics cha nhn c kiu file MS. Office 2007
Sau m file d liu ny trong Statgraphics Centurion: File/Open/Open Data
Source/External Data file - OK

37
M file d liu Excel trong Statgraphics Centurion

Chy phn x l hm tng quan mt lp: Improve/Regression Analysis/One Factor/Simple

Regression

38

Chn chng trnh chy tuyn tnh mt lp trong Statgraphics Centurion

Trong hp thoi chn bin y v x v i bin s ngay trong hp thoi: log(H) v log(D). Kch
OK c kt qu. (Lu k hiu log trong Statgraphics l logarit neper)

39
Kt qu chy hm m i v tuyn tnh trong Statgrphics

Simple Regression - log(H) vs. log(D)

Dependent variable: log(H)
Independent variable: log(D)
Linear model: Y = a + b*X
Coefficients
Parameter
Intercept
Slope

Least Squares
Estimate
-0.800869
1.15794

Analysis of Variance
Source
Sum of Squares
Model
8.14157
Residual
1.06182
Total (Corr.)
9.20339

Standard
Error
0.18412
0.0678368

Df
1
38
39

T
Statistic
-4.34972
17.0695

Mean Square
8.14157
0.0279427

P-Value
0.0001
0.0000

F-Ratio
291.37

P-Value
0.0000

Correlation Coefficient = 0.940546

R-squared = 88.4627 percent
R-squared (adjusted for d.f.) = 88.1591 percent
Standard Error of Est. = 0.167161
Mean absolute error = 0.1213
Durbin-Watson statistic = 0.898852 (P=0.0000)
Lag 1 residual autocorrelation = 0.545672
The StatAdvisor
The output shows the results of fitting a linear model to describe the relationship between log(H) and log(D). The equation
of the fitted model is
log(H) = -0.800869 + 1.15794*log(D)
Since the P-value in the ANOVA table is less than 0.05, there is a statistically significant relationship between log(H) and
log(D) at the 95.0% confidence level.
The R-Squared statistic indicates that the model as fitted explains 88.4627% of the variability in log(H). The correlation
coefficient equals 0.940546, indicating a relatively strong relationship between the variables. The standard error of the

40
estimate shows the standard deviation of the residuals to be 0.167161. This value can be used to construct prediction limits
for new observations by selecting the Forecasts option from the text menu.
The mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.1213 is the average value of the residuals. The Durbin-Watson (DW) statistic tests the
residuals to determine if there is any significant correlation based on the order in which they occur in your data file. Since
the P-value is less than 0.05, there is an indication of possible serial correlation at the 95.0% confidence level. Plot the
residuals versus row order to see if there is any pattern that can be seen.

Plot of Fitted Model

log(H) = -0.800869 + 1.15794*log(D)
3.2

log(H)

2.8
2.4
2
1.6
1.2
1.9

2.3

2.7
log(D)

3.1

3.5

Kt qu cho ra hm trc tip vit di dng tuyn tnh i bin s

Cc kt qu kim tra h s tng quan R v cc bin s c hiu ging nh trong Excel
6.3.

c lng cc dng hi quy mt lp tuyn tnh hoc phi tuyn tnh

trn th
Trong thc t trc quan cc mi quan h, ngi ta thng dng th biu din, v d
dng trong vic xem xt cc s bo, Excel h tr chng trnh xc nh m hnh hi quy
tuyn tnh v phi tuyn tnh mt lp ngay trn th. Excel lp sn 5 dng hm ph bin trong
phn ny.
V d: La chn m hnh hi quy H/D cho rng trng Tch ngay trn th quan h

41
Nhp s liu:
S liu v quan h H/D
1

D(cm)

H(m)

6,7

3,5

6,8

3,6

9,5

5,7

9,5

6,1

...

...

...

40

31,3

22,0

41

32,0

21,8

V th: Tin hnh cc bc v th quan h H/D. (Nn v dng m my

im).
Tnh ton m hnh quan h da vo th:
o Kch hot th: Kch chut tri.
o Chn m my im trn th: Kch chut phi vo m my m ny.
o Chn Add Trendline
Lp th thit lp hm m hnh quan h 1 lp

42
Chn mc Type: y chn dng lin h thch hp, c cc dng sau:

Linear:
y = mx + b
Logarithmic: y = clnx + b
Polynomial: y = b + c1x + c2x2 + .....c6x6
C th chn 1 n 6 bc trong Order: Xc nh s bc.
Power:
y = cxb
Exponential: y = c.ebx
Chn cc kiu hm khc nhau c c R2 ln nht.
Chn mc Option: Xc nh:

43

Forecast: Foward: Xc nh di d on tip theo.

Backward: Xc nh di d on li.
Set intercept (0): Nu nh du th tham s b=0 trong cc hm ng thng
Display Equation on Chart: nh du a hm ln th.
Display R-squared Value on Chart: nh du nu mun tnh h s tng quan
bnh phng.
Cui cng l OK.
Khai bo v chn hm trong MS. Office 2007

44
V d khc: D bo t l che ph ca rng trong thi gian n

V d khc: Lng carbon c lu tr trong cc kiu rng khc nhau c m phng bng
dng hm phi tuyn trn th. Trong khng cn m ha bin s x (kiu rng), lc ny s
dng s ct v v chy phng trnh thch hp. Lc ny my tnh t ng m ha
cc kiu rng l 1, 2, 3, 4 .....
Lng carbon trn v di mt t cc kiu s dng t
rng

Cc vng rng Brazil, Cameroon v Indonesia

Cc kiu rng

Lng carbon
(tn/ha)

Rng nguyn sinh

Rng khai thc chn
Rng b ho sau nng ry
t Nng Lm kt hp
Cy trng ngn ngy
ng c chn th gia sc

Di
mt Trong thc
t
vt
48
310
48
230
48
75
45
50
25
5
20
2

45

Lng C trong cc kiu rng

Carbon trong thc vt (tn/ha)

350
300
250

Rng nguyn
sinh

y = -188.62Ln(x) + 318.83
2

R = 0.9538

Rng khai
thc chn

200
150

Rng b ho sau
nng ry t Nng Lm
kt hp
Cy trng ngn
ng c chn th
ngy
gia sc

100
50
0
-50

Cc kiu s dng rng

6.4. Hi quy tuyn tnh nhiu lp

Trong thc t bin ph thuc Y b chi phi bi nhiu bin s c lp Xi. V d nh tr lng
rng c ng gp bi nhiu nhn t nh mt , tit din ngang, chiu cao, cp t; hoc
bin i dng chy, mc xung yu ca lu vc b chi phi bi nhiu nhn t nh lng
ma, dc, a hnh, loi t, che ph thm thc vt, .....
Trong trng hp ny c lng bin ph thuc Y ngi ta cn lp m hnh hi quy nhiu
bin s c th phn nh chnh xc gi tr c lng, d bo Y.
Dng phng trnh tng qut:
Y = ao + b1X1 + b2X2 +....+ bnXn
V d: Thit lp m hnh d on tr lng rng (M) Tch theo 2 bin s mt (N) v chiu
cao bnh qun (H) theo dng tuyn tnh 2 lp:
M = a + b1 N + b2 H
y l dng tuyn tnh 2 lp Y = a + b1X1 + b2X2
Dng phng php bnh phng ti thiu c lng phng trnh
Nhp s liu
Bng s liu M/N/H
1

N(c/ha)

H(m)

M(m3/ha)

180

23,0

163,452

170

23,0

160,154

220

22,3

184,167

...

....

....

......

...

....

....

......

46

N(c/ha)

H(m)

M(m3/ha)

40

570

10,9

43,846

41

570

11,1

53,212

c lng tng quan tuyn tnh nhiu lp:

o Tools/Data Analysis/Regression.OK. (Data/Data Analysis/Regression
trong MS Office 2007)
o Hp thoi:
Input Y range: Nhp a ch ct bin Y (C th nhp c nhn). Vd: C1:C41.
Input X range: Nhp a ch khi cc bin X (C th nhp c nhn). Vd:
A1:B41.
Label: nh du nu nhp c hng u lm nhn.
Output range: Nhp a ch trn tri ni xut kt qu.
OK.
Khai bo d liu lp m hnh tuyn tnh nhiu lp

47
Kt qu c lng m hnh hi quy tuyn tnh 2 lp
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square

0.9256776
0.856879

Adjusted R Square

0.8491427

Standard Error

28.140919

Observations

40

ANOVA
df

SS

MS

175426.2

87713.1

Residual

37

29300.72

791.9113

Total

39

204726.9

Coefficients

Standard Error

Intercept

-154.77144

N (c/ha)

Regression

H (m)

Significance F

110.7613

2.40166E-16

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

22.13662

-6.99165

2.91E-08

-199.6244851

-109.918392

0.1095484

0.016994

6.446152

1.57E-07

0.075114494

0.143982284

14.52156

0.97677

14.86692

3.49E-17

12.54243676

16.50068344

Phng trnh tng quan hi quy:

M = - 154.771 + 0.109 N + 14.521 H
Vi N = 40 R = 0.926
Fr = 110.76
tb1 = 6.44
tb2 = 14.86
vi P<0.00

vi P<0.00

Lu quan trng: Khi phn tch m hnh nhiu lp, ngoi vic kim tra s tn ti ca h s
tng quan R bng tiu chun F, vi R tn ti khi Significance F (P) < 0.05; ng thi phi
kim tra s tn ti ca cc tham s gn cc bin s Xi bng tiu chun tstat, tham s tn ti
khi P-value < 0.05. (Th hin trong kt qu bng cui cng). Nu mt tham s khng tn ti
th c ngha: i) Bin s (nhn t) khng nh hng n Y, lc ny cn loi bin kh m
hnh; hoc dng ng thng l cha thch hp (lc ny phi chuyn sang dng phi tuyn
xem xt s nh hng ca nhn t ny)
Trong trng hp trn hai bin N v H nh hng r rng n M dng ng thng, vi P
<0.05 rt nhiu.
6.5. Hi quy phi tuyn tnh nhiu lp, t hp bin
Trong trng hp nhiu bin s xi nh hng n y khng theo dng tuyn tnh m c dng
quan h phi tuyn, trng hp ny cn i bin s tr v dng tuyn tnh, hoc lp m hnh
t hp bin.
Mt s dng phi tuyn nhiu lp ph bin v cch quy v tuyn tnh hoc t hp bin:
y = a.x1b1 x 2 b 2....xn bn tuyn tnh ha: ln(y) = ln(a) + b1.ln(x1) + b2ln(x2) + ... + bnln(xn)
y = a.e b1x1+b 2 x 2+...+bnxn tuyn tnh ha: ln(y) = ln(a) + b1x1 + b2x2 + ...+ bnxn

48
Hoc dng t hp bin v i bin s kt hp:
ln(y) = a + b1.log(x1.x2) + b2 exp(x3/x4) + .......
Trong Statgraphics, vic tnh ton m hnh kiu ny rt n gin v khng cn to thm cc
ct i bin s, bin s c i trc tip trong hp thoi khi thit lp m hnh.
Cc bc tin hnh nh sau:
i)
Kim tra dng chun ca mi bin s, nu cha chun phi i bin s a v
chun (log(x), 1/x, sqrt(x), exp(x), ....)
ii)
Chn bin s xi c nh hng n y
iii)
Chy m hnh tuyn tnh nhiu lp c i bin s, khi cn thit phi t hp bin
nu cc bin xi c quan h vi nhau
iv)
Kim tra m hnh: H s xc nh R2 c P <0.05 v cc tham s gn bin s qua
kim tra theo t phi c P < 0.05. Nu mt bin s cha bo m P <0.05 th phi
loi khi m hnh hoc i bin s, hoc t hp vi bin s khc.
u tin lp c s d liu trong Excel, bao gm cc trng (ct) bin y v xi, v d nghin
cu pht hin cc nhn t sinh thi nhn tc a bin nh hng n ti sinh rng; bin y l
mt ti sinh (Ntx), bin xi bao gm nhiu nhn t sinh thi v nhn tc
Lp c s d liu a bin trong Excel

Kim tra dng chuNn ca cc bin s trong Statgrahics v nh hng i bin s:

Improve/Regression Analysis/Multiple Factors/Multiple Variable Analysis. Sau a tt c
bin y v xi vo hp thoi data.

49

Chn chng trnh kim tra lut chun v nh hng i bin s chun ha trong
Statgraphics Centurion

50
Kt qu kim tra lut chun v mi quan h cc bin s

- Kt qu kim tra phn b chun ca cc bin s:

Summary Statistics
Cphu tbi
Da noi
Count
19
19
Average
39.3158
20.2632
Standard
28.2352
15.7298
deviation
Coeff. of variation 71.8165% 77.6276%
Minimum
5.0
1.0
Maximum
80.0
60.0
Range
75.0
59.0
Stnd. skewness
-0.0680602 1.14805
Stnd. kurtosis
-1.59069
0.668059
Muc do Lua rung
Count
19
Average
2.10526
Standard deviation
0.567131
Coeff. of variation
26.9387%
Minimum
1.0
Maximum
3.0
Range
2.0
Stnd. skewness
0.0906087
Stnd. kurtosis
0.52516
-

Do cao
19
227.211
14.4167

Do day dat
19
14.3684
5.63925

Do doc
19
5.31579
5.82192

Ket von
19
12.2632
13.2826

Luong mua
19
1400.89
133.315

Muc do khai thac

19
2.63158
0.597265

6.3451%
192.0
258.0
66.0
-0.60383
1.10545

39.2475%
7.0
27.0
20.0
0.81906
-0.344544

109.521%
1.0
19.0
18.0
1.93703
-0.0689246

108.313%
1.0
40.0
39.0
1.52115
-0.688123

9.51641%
1231.0
1500.0
269.0
-1.05608
-1.65147

22.6961%
1.0
3.0
2.0
-2.56858
1.22788

Nts
19
868.474
1054.29
121.395%
1.0
3900.0
3899.0
3.63749
3.5476

pH
19
6.63158
0.260454
3.92748%
6.2
7.0
0.8
0.0232827
-0.823423

Vi tri
19
2.78947
0.535303
19.1901%
1.0
3.0
2.0
-4.72906
6.1244

The StatAdvisor
This table shows summary statistics for each of the selected data variables. It includes measures of central tendency,
measures of variability, and measures of shape. Of particular interest here are the standardized skewness and standardized
kurtosis, which can be used to determine whether the sample comes from a normal distribution. Values of these statistics
outside the range of -2 to +2 indicate significant departures from normality, which would tend to invalidate many of the
statistical procedures normally applied to this data. In this case, the following variables show standardized skewness values
outside the expected range:
Muc do khai thac
Nts
Vi tri
The following variables show standardized kurtosis values outside the expected range:
Nts
Vi tri

51
To make the variables more normal, you might try a transformation such as LOG(Y), SQRT(Y), or 1/Y.

Kt qu cho thy c 3 bin s c Standardized Sk hoc Ku khng bo m c phn b chuNn

l: Nts, Muc do khai thac v Vi tri. V 3 bin ny cn i bin s cc dng LOG(Y), SQRT(Y),
or 1/Y chuNn ha.
i bin s chun ha

Summary Statistics
Count
Average
Standard deviation
Coeff. of variation
Minimum
Maximum
Range
Stnd. skewness
Stnd. kurtosis

Cphu tbi
19
39.3158
28.2352
71.8165%
5.0
80.0
75.0
-0.0680602
-1.59069

Da noi
19
20.2632
15.7298
77.6276%
1.0
60.0
59.0
1.14805
0.668059

Count
Average
Standard deviation
Coeff. of variation
Minimum
Maximum
Range
Stnd. skewness
Stnd. kurtosis

sqrt(Muc do khai thac)

19
1.60988
0.205131
12.742%
1.0
1.73205
0.732051
-3.07989
2.6152

Do cao
19
227.211
14.4167
6.3451%
192.0
258.0
66.0
-0.60383
1.10545

Do day dat
19
14.3684
5.63925
39.2475%
7.0
27.0
20.0
0.81906
-0.344544

Muc do Lua rung

19
2.10526
0.567131
26.9387%
1.0
3.0
2.0
0.0906087
0.52516

Do doc
19
5.31579
5.82192
109.521%
1.0
19.0
18.0
1.93703
-0.0689246

sqrt(Nts)
19
24.5836
16.697
67.9193%
1.0
62.45
61.45
1.22414
0.490076

Ket von
19
12.2632
13.2826
108.313%
1.0
40.0
39.0
1.52115
-0.688123

pH
19
6.63158
0.260454
3.92748%
6.2
7.0
0.8
0.0232827
-0.823423

Luong mua
19
1400.89
133.315
9.51641%
1231.0
1500.0
269.0
-1.05608
-1.65147

log(Vi tri)
19
0.99811
0.273236
27.3753%
0.0
1.09861
1.09861
-5.60515
9.35136

52
The StatAdvisor
This table shows summary statistics for each of the selected data variables. It includes measures of central tendency,
measures of variability, and measures of shape. Of particular interest here are the standardized skewness and standardized
kurtosis, which can be used to determine whether the sample comes from a normal distribution. Values of these statistics
outside the range of -2 to +2 indicate significant departures from normality, which would tend to invalidate many of the
statistical procedures normally applied to this data. In this case, the following variables show standardized skewness values
outside the expected range:
sqrt(Muc do khai thac)
log(Vi tri)
The following variables show standardized kurtosis values outside the expected range:
sqrt(Muc do khai thac)
log(Vi tri)
To make the variables more normal, you might try a transformation such as LOG(Y), SQRT(Y), or 1/Y.

V d sau khi th i bin s th bin sqrt(Nts) bo m lut chuNn, trong khi th 2 bin
Muc do khai thac v Vi tri vn cha tha mn; nu tip tc i bin s m cng khng bo
m th c 2 phng n: i) i bin s theo kiu khc; ii) Thu thp thm d liu bo m
chuNn;
Kt qu phn tch ny cng ch ra c cc bin s c quan h vi nhau v nh hng n y
(Nts)
Correlations
Cphu tbi Da noi
Cphu tbi

0.1812
(19)
0.4579
Do cao
-0.3116
(19)
0.1940
Do day dat
-0.2666
(19)
0.2698
Do doc
-0.3217
(19)
0.1792
Ket von
0.5636
(19)
0.0120
Luong mua
0.8266
(19)
0.0000
sqrt(Muc do khai thac) 0.6420
(19)
0.0030
Muc do Lua rung
-0.3769
(19)
0.1117
sqrt(Nts)
-0.4810
(19)
0.0371
pH
-0.7690
(19)
0.0001
log(Vi tri)
0.2821
(19)
0.2420

0.1812
(19)
0.4579

Da noi

0.1619
(19)
0.5078
-0.4934
(19)
0.0318
0.1835
(19)
0.4522
0.5192
(19)
0.0227
0.3481
(19)
0.1442
0.4579
(19)
0.0486
0.2521
(19)
0.2979
-0.3686
(19)
0.1204
-0.1160
(19)
0.6361
-0.3823
(19)
0.1062

Do cao Do day dat Do doc

Ket von

-0.3116
(19)
0.1940
0.1619
(19)
0.5078

0.5636
(19)
0.0120
0.5192
(19)
0.0227
-0.0287
(19)
0.9070
-0.2313
(19)
0.3407
0.1117
(19)
0.6490

0.1432
(19)
0.5587
0.3592
(19)
0.1309
-0.0287
(19)
0.9070
-0.3695
(19)
0.1194
-0.0594
(19)
0.8092
0.1194
(19)
0.6262
-0.1715
(19)
0.4826
0.1786
(19)
0.4643
-0.1869
(19)
0.4436

-0.2666
(19)
0.2698
-0.4934
(19)
0.0318
0.1432
(19)
0.5587

-0.0680
(19)
0.7820
-0.2313
(19)
0.3407
-0.2668
(19)
0.2695
-0.2309
(19)
0.3415
0.2478
(19)
0.3064
-0.0247
(19)
0.9199
-0.0916
(19)
0.7093
0.2069
(19)
0.3953

-0.3217
(19)
0.1792
0.1835
(19)
0.4522
0.3592
(19)
0.1309
-0.0680
(19)
0.7820

0.1117
(19)
0.6490
-0.1692
(19)
0.4885
-0.1966
(19)
0.4197
-0.2294
(19)
0.3449
-0.1215
(19)
0.6203
0.2715
(19)
0.2608
-0.7285
(19)
0.0004

0.5135
(19)
0.0245
0.4748
(19)
0.0400
-0.2546
(19)
0.2928
-0.5421
(19)
0.0165
-0.5164
(19)
0.0236
-0.0642
(19)
0.7940

Luong
mua
0.8266
(19)
0.0000
0.3481
(19)
0.1442
-0.3695
(19)
0.1194
-0.2668
(19)
0.2695
-0.1692
(19)
0.4885
0.5135
(19)
0.0245

0.8012
(19)
0.0000
-0.0520
(19)
0.8325
-0.5983
(19)
0.0068
-0.6796
(19)
0.0014
-0.1223
(19)
0.6180

sqrt(Muc do khai
thac)
0.6420
(19)
0.0030
0.4579
(19)
0.0486
-0.0594
(19)
0.8092
-0.2309
(19)
0.3415
-0.1966
(19)
0.4197
0.4748
(19)
0.0400
0.8012
(19)
0.0000

0.1167
(19)
0.6343
-0.4547
(19)
0.0505
-0.6910
(19)
0.0011
-0.1035
(19)
0.6733

53

Cphu tbi

Da noi

Do cao

Do day dat

Do doc

Ket von

Luong mua

sqrt(Muc do khai thac)

Muc do Lua rung

-0.3769
(19)
0.1117
0.2521
(19)
0.2979
0.1194
(19)
0.6262
0.2478
(19)
0.3064
-0.2294
(19)
0.3449
-0.2546
(19)
0.2928
-0.0520
(19)
0.8325
0.1167
(19)
0.6343

Muc do Lua rung

sqrt(Nts)

pH

log(Vi tri)

-0.1064
(19)
0.6648
0.2019
(19)
0.4071
-0.1764
(19)
0.4699

sqrt(Nts)
-0.4810
(19)
0.0371
-0.3686
(19)
0.1204
-0.1715
(19)
0.4826
-0.0247
(19)
0.9199
-0.1215
(19)
0.6203
-0.5421
(19)
0.0165
-0.5983
(19)
0.0068
-0.4547
(19)
0.0505
-0.1064
(19)
0.6648

0.3337
(19)
0.1627
0.1746
(19)
0.4748

pH
-0.7690
(19)
0.0001
-0.1160
(19)
0.6361
0.1786
(19)
0.4643
-0.0916
(19)
0.7093
0.2715
(19)
0.2608
-0.5164
(19)
0.0236
-0.6796
(19)
0.0014
-0.6910
(19)
0.0011
0.2019
(19)
0.4071
0.3337
(19)
0.1627

log(Vi tri)
0.2821
(19)
0.2420
-0.3823
(19)
0.1062
-0.1869
(19)
0.4436
0.2069
(19)
0.3953
-0.7285
(19)
0.0004
-0.0642
(19)
0.7940
-0.1223
(19)
0.6180
-0.1035
(19)
0.6733
-0.1764
(19)
0.4699
0.1746
(19)
0.4748
-0.2960
(19)
0.2186

-0.2960
(19)
0.2186

Correlation
(Sample Size)
P-Value
The StatAdvisor
This table shows Pearson product moment correlations between each pair of variables. These correlation coefficients range
between -1 and +1 and measure the strength of the linear relationship between the variables. Also shown in parentheses is
the number of pairs of data values used to compute each coefficient. The third number in each location of the table is a Pvalue which tests the statistical significance of the estimated correlations. P-values below 0.05 indicate statistically
significant non-zero correlations at the 95.0% confidence level. The following pairs of variables have P-values below 0.05:

Cphu tbi and Ket von

Cphu tbi and Luong mua
Cphu tbi and sqrt(Muc do khai thac)
Cphu tbi and sqrt(Nts)
Cphu tbi and pH
Da noi and Do day dat
Da noi and Ket von
Da noi and sqrt(Muc do khai thac)
Do doc and log(Vi tri)
Ket von and Luong mua
Ket von and sqrt(Muc do khai thac)
Ket von and sqrt(Nts)
Ket von and pH
Luong mua and sqrt(Muc do khai thac)

54
Luong mua and sqrt(Nts)
Luong mua and pH
sqrt(Muc do khai thac) and pH

T kt qu ny cho thy Nts b chi phi bi 3 nhn t chnh l: Cphu tbi, Kvon, Luong mua.
T y thit lp m hnh quan h Nts vi 3 bin ny lng ha s nh hng:
Improve/Regression Analysis/Multiple Factors/Mutiple Regression Sau chn cc bin y,
xi vo trong hp thoi. Lu i bin s chuNn ha nh xc nh bc trn.
Vo chng trnh chy m hnh hi quy a bin trong Statgraphics Centurion

55
Multiple Regression - sqrt(Nts)
Dependent variable: sqrt(Nts)
Independent variables:
Cphu tbi
Ket von
Luong mua

Parameter
CONSTANT
Cphu tbi
Ket von
Luong mua

Estimate
127.22
0.118008
-0.4484
-0.0726513

Analysis of Variance
Source
Sum of Squares
Model
2230.26
Residual
2787.98
Total (Corr.)
5018.24

Standard
Error
53.9381
0.21119
0.29441
0.0430591

Df
3
15
18

T
Statistic
2.35863
0.558777
-1.52305
-1.68725

Mean Square
743.419
185.866

P-Value
0.0323
0.5846
0.1485
0.1122
F-Ratio
4.00

P-Value
0.0281

R-squared = 44.443 percent

R-squared (adjusted for d.f.) = 33.3316 percent
Standard Error of Est. = 13.6333
Mean absolute error = 10.1868
Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.17117 (P=0.0106)
Lag 1 residual autocorrelation = 0.363982
The StatAdvisor
The output shows the results of fitting a multiple linear regression model to describe the relationship between sqrt(Nts) and 3
independent variables. The equation of the fitted model is

sqrt(Nts) = 127.22 + 0.118008*Cphu tbi - 0.4484*Ket von - 0.0726513*Luong mua

Since the P-value in the ANOVA table is less than 0.05, there is a statistically significant relationship between the variables
at the 95.0% confidence level.
The R-Squared statistic indicates that the model as fitted explains 44.443% of the variability in sqrt(Nts). The adjusted Rsquared statistic, which is more suitable for comparing models with different numbers of independent variables, is 33.3316%.
The standard error of the estimate shows the standard deviation of the residuals to be 13.6333. This value can be used to
construct prediction limits for new observations by selecting the Reports option from the text menu. The mean absolute error
(MAE) of 10.1868 is the average value of the residuals. The Durbin-Watson (DW) statistic tests the residuals to determine if
there is any significant correlation based on the order in which they occur in your data file. Since the P-value is less than
0.05, there is an indication of possible serial correlation at the 95.0% confidence level. Plot the residuals versus row order to
see if there is any pattern that can be seen.
In determining whether the model can be simplified, notice that the highest P-value on the independent variables is 0.5846,
belonging to Cphu tbi. Since the P-value is greater or equal to 0.05, that term is not statistically significant at the 95.0% or
higher confidence level. Consequently, you should consider removing Cphu tbi from the model.

Kt qu cho thy c 3 bin s u c Pvalue>0.05; do cha tham gia c vo m hnh;

lc ny cn i bin s (log, exp, sqrt, 1/xi, ...) hoc t hp bin bo m s tn ti ca
bin s . Nu mt bin no cha tm c cch i bin s thch hp hoc t hp bin th
cn loi khi m hnh, tuy nhin thc t bin ny c nh hng n y, nhng cha c pht
hin dng bin s thch hp.

56
Kt qu th nghim i bin s, t hp bin, loi bin s
Multiple Regression - sqrt(Nts)
Dependent variable: sqrt(Nts)
Independent variables:
log(Luong mua*Ket von)

Parameter
CONSTANT
log(Luong mua*Ket von)

Estimate
83.901
-6.68159

Analysis of Variance
Source
Sum of Squares
Model
1991.09
Residual
3027.15
Total (Corr.)
5018.24

Df
1
17
18

Standard
Error
18.0012
1.99815

T
Statistic
4.66085
-3.34389

Mean Square
1991.09
178.068

P-Value
0.0002
0.0038

F-Ratio
11.18

P-Value
0.0038

R-squared = 39.677 percent

R-squared (adjusted for d.f.) = 36.1286 percent
Standard Error of Est. = 13.3442
Mean absolute error = 10.4431
Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.34835 (P=0.0522)
Lag 1 residual autocorrelation = 0.293351
The StatAdvisor
The output shows the results of fitting a multiple linear regression model to describe the relationship between sqrt(Nts) and 1
independent variables. The equation of the fitted model is

sqrt(Nts) = 83.901 - 6.68159*log(Luong mua*Ket von)

Since the P-value in the ANOVA table is less than 0.05, there is a statistically significant relationship between the variables
at the 95.0% confidence level.
The R-Squared statistic indicates that the model as fitted explains 39.677% of the variability in sqrt(Nts). The adjusted Rsquared statistic, which is more suitable for comparing models with different numbers of independent variables, is 36.1286%.
The standard error of the estimate shows the standard deviation of the residuals to be 13.3442. This value can be used to
construct prediction limits for new observations by selecting the Reports option from the text menu. The mean absolute error
(MAE) of 10.4431 is the average value of the residuals. The Durbin-Watson (DW) statistic tests the residuals to determine if
there is any significant correlation based on the order in which they occur in your data file. Since the P-value is greater than
0.05, there is no indication of serial autocorrelation in the residuals at the 95.0% confidence level.
In determining whether the model can be simplified, notice that the highest P-value on the independent variables is 0.0038,
belonging to log(Luong mua*Ket von). Since the P-value is less than 0.05, that term is statistically significant at the 95.0%
confidence level. Consequently, you probably don't want to remove any variables from the model.
Plot of sqrt(Nts)
80

observed

60
40
20
0
0

20

40
predicted

60

80

57
Kt qu thit lp c m hnh:

sqrt(Nts) = 83.901 - 6.68159*log(Luong mua*Ket von)

Vi R-squared = 39.677 percent; Pvalue <0.05
Cc tham s u tn ti vi Pvalue = 0.0038 < 0.05
T m hnh ny cho thy c hai nhn t l lng ma v % kt von nh hng r rt n ti
sinh khu vc nghin cu. Lng ma v kt von gia tng lm gim s cy ti sinh; y l
c s quy hoch cnh quan v p dng bin php lm sinh xc tin tc sinh.

7. M HNH HO QUY LUT PHN B

Trong nghin cu cc lm phn, ngi ta thng khi qut quy lut phn b s cy theo c
knh, chiu cao lm c s cho vic iu tra rng v xc nh cc gii php lm sinh thch
hp dn dt rng. Hoc nghin cu phn b s c th theo tui, th h; phn b s loi
theo tng th, phn b vi sinh vt t theo cc lp t, .... hiu r quy lut sinh hc, sinh
thi hc lm c s qun l ti nguyn thin nhin bn vng.
7.1. M hnh ho phn b gim theo hm Meyer
Hm Mayer c dng: y = .e-.x. Kiu dng ny thch hp cho m t m phng phn b s cy
theo c knh (N/D) rng cht chn c dng gim, hoc m phng s gim ca s loi theo
tng, theo c knh, .,,,,,
Trong Excel c chng trnh lp sn tnh quan h Mayer ngay trn th.
V d m phng phn b N/D theo dng Mayer: N = .e-.D
Nhp s liu: Ct A l gi tr gia c knh (D) ; Ct B l tn s thc nghim (N).
Bng d liu tn s phn b N/D
1

D1,3 (cm)

N (c/ha)

15

125

25

89

35

56

45

31

55

19

65

75

10

85

10

95

11

105

12

115

58
S dng th v c lng hm Mayer

Phn b Mayer cn c th s dng xem xt phn b s lng c th ca mt loi theo cc

giai on tui. Kiu dng cu trc s cy theo tui (N/A) rng nhit i nhn chung c dng
gim, tui cng cao th s c th cng t, bo m cho s k tc cc th h cy rng v n nh
qun th thc vt rng theo thi gian. Vi c trng cu trc dng gim theo th h, tui nh
vy nn phng thc khai thc chnh ca rng t nhin l cht chn theo cp knh. Khai thc
lp cy thnh thc v nui dng rng trong mt lun k rng phc hi trng thi ban u
v tip tc khai thc ln 2. Vic xc nh c cu trc N/A ca lm phn v N/A theo tng
loi/nhm loi chnh s rt thun tin cho vic xc nh k thut lm sinh nh tui, ng
knh khai thc, lun k,.... Tuy nhin trong thc t vic xc nh A l rt kh khn, do
thng thng c thay bng ng knh, v kiu cu trc ph bin c nghin cu l s
cy theo c knh N/D phc v cho iu tra, xc nh ch tiu k thut nui dng, khai
thc rng. M hnh ho cu trc N/A thng c biu din tt bng hm Mayer vi h s
tng quan R2 rt cao.

59

90
80
N = 102.71e-0.2862A
R2 = 0.9843

70

N/ha

60
50
40
30
20
10
0
5

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105 115 125 135 145 155

Cp A (nm)
V d m hnh cu trc N/A rng hn loi khc tui theo hm Mayer

Rng ma nhit i c khu h thc vt a dng vi thnh loi phong ph, phn b nhiu th
h, cp tui khc nhau. Trn 01 ha rng c th pht hin trn 60 loi cy thn g, ngoi ra
rng ma rt phong ph cc loi dy leo, song my, ru, dng x, phong lan. Cc loi cy
ni chung l a sng, c gng vn ln cnh tranh nh sng, tuy vy cng c loi chu c
tng di v hnh thnh s phn b loi theo tng, theo cp tui, cp knh kh r rt. Trong
thc t vic xc nh tui cy rng l kh khn, do thng nghin cu cu trc s loi theo
cp knh (Nloi/D)
25

y = 30.511e-0.3491x
R2 = 0.987

N loi /ha

20
15

N loi/ha
Expon. (N loi/ha)

10
5
0
15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95 105

Cp knh D1.3 (cm)

Cu trc s loi theo cp knh rng na rng l u hp bng lng cm xe Dk Lk

60
Cu trc Nloi/D ca kiu rng na rng u hp bng lng cm xe Dk Lak c kiu dng
phn b l dng gim lin tc, c ngha khi ln tng cao, cp knh ln, s loi chim t l
thp, y l cc loi u th sinh thi. Vi kiu rng ny, s loi trn ha l 70 loi thn g, v
vi c knh thnh thc t 55cm tr ln th s loi cn khong 5 loi. Kiu dng cu trc ny
cng c th m phng tt bng dng hm Mayer.
7.2. M phng phn b thc nghim theo phn b khong cch-hnh hc:
i) Dng phn b khong cch:

x=0
x-1
P(x) =
(1-).(1-).
x>=1
Vi x l m s cc c knh t nh n ln 0,1,2,3....
Khi: < (1-)(1-) Phn b c nh ti x=1.
=1-
Phn b gim c th thay th bng phn b hnh hc.
> (1-)(1-) Phn b gim.
c lng 2 tham s bng phng php cc i hp l:
= N0/N
r

= 1

Ni
i =1

Ni. xi
i =1

Trnh t tnh trong Excel: Vd: M phng phn b N/D c dng 1 nh:
* Ct A: M s x
* Ct B: Gi tr gia c D.
* Ct C: S cy theo c knh. Tng ti C13=sum(c2:c12)
* Ct D: Ni.xi. Ti D2:=A2*C2; copy cho cc di. Tng ti D13
* Tnh 2 tham s:
= C2/Sum(c2:c12)
= 1- Sum(c3:c12)/sum(d2:d12)
* Ct E:Xc sut tng c knh P(xi): E2: Pxo=; E3: Px1 = (1-)(1-)^(a3-1);
copy cho cc di.
* Ct F: Tn s l thuyt: Nlti: F2: =$C$13*E2; copy cho cc di
* Ct G: Tnh 2 tng c v tng. G2: = (f2-c2)^2/f2, copy cho cc di, cng
tng.
* G14: Tra 2 bng (=0,05 ; K = 8-2-1=5): =Chiinv(0.05,5)
Kt qu 2 tnh < 2 bng . Kl: Phn b Khong cch m phng tt phn b thc nghim N/D.

61
Kt qu m phng phn b N/D theo phn b khong cch
A

C D1,3 (cm)

N (c/ha)

Nixi

Px

Nlt (c/ha)

X2

15

70

0,212121

70

0,00

25

125

125

0,345444

114

1,06

35

56

112

0,193985

64

1,00

45

31

93

0,108932

36

0,68

55

19

76

0,061171

20

0,07

65

40

0,034351

11

0,98

75

10

60

0,01929

2,08

85

35

0,010832

1,82

10

95

24

0,006083

11

105

18

0,003416

12

10

115

10

0,001918

13

Tng

330

593

0,997543

329

14

Gamma=

0,212121

X2 bng=

15

Alpha=

0,561551

K=8-2-1=5

7,70
11,07

ii) Phn b hnh hc:

P(x) = x. (1-)
x=0,1,2,3...r
c lng bng phng php cc i hp l:
x
=
x +1
1 r
x=
Ni. xi
N i =1
Phn b hnh hc dng m t cc phn b thc nghim dng gim
Trnh t tnh trong Excel: Vd: M phng phn b N/D c dng gim:
* Ct A: M s x
* Ct B: Gi tr gia c D.
* Ct C: S cy theo c knh. Tng ti C13=sum(c2:c12)
* Ct D: Ni.xi. Ti D2:=A2*C2; copy cho cc di. Tng ti D13
* Tnh tham s :
x = D13/c13
= x/(x+1)
* Ct E:Xc sut tng c knh P(xi): E2: Pxo = (1-)^a3; copy cho cc di.
* Ct F: Tn s l thuyt: Nlti: F2: =$C$13*E2; copy cho cc di
* Ct G: Tnh 2 tng c v tng. G2: = (f2-c2)^2/f2, copy cho cc di, cng
tng.
* G14: Tra 2 bng (=0,05 ; K = 8-1-1=6): =Chiinv(0.05,6)

Kt qu 2 tnh < 2 bng . Kl: Phn b hnh hc m phng tt phn b thc nghim N/D.

62
Kt qu m phng phn b N/D theo phn b hnh hc
A

C D1,3 (cm)

N (c/ha)

Nixi

Px

Nlt (c/ha)

X2

15

125

0,38521

134

0,66

25

89

89

0,236823

83

0,49

35

56

112

0,145597

51

0,53

45

31

93

0,089511

31

0,00

55

19

76

0,055031

19

0,00

65

40

0,033832

12

1,23

75

10

60

0,0208

1,03

85

35

0,012788

0,12

10

95

24

0,007862

11

105

18

0,004833

12

10

115

10

0,002971

13

Tng

349

557

0,995258

347

xbq=
Alpha=

1,595989

X2 bng=

0,61479

K=8-1-1=6

4,06
12,59

7.3. M phng phn b thc nghim theo phn b Weibull:

Phn b Weibull l phn b xc sut ca bin ngu nhin lin tc vi min gi tr
x(0,+).
Hm mt :
f(x) = .(x - xmin)-1.exp(-(x - xmin)
Hm phn b:
F(x) = 1 - exp(-(x - xmin)

Vi xmin: tr s quan st nh nht.

x: cc gi tr quan st, nu xp theo t th x l gi tr gia mi t.
Khi:
<= 1: Phn b gim.
1<<3:Phn b lch tri
=3: Phn b i xng.
>3: Phn b lch phi.
* c lng 2 tham s v :
Tham s thng c thm d trong mt khong thch hp da trn cc c trng
mu, cho chy tnh . Sau kim tra s ph hp ca phn b l thuyt bng tiu chuNn
2, chn cp tham s c 2 b nht v nh thua 2 bng.
Tham s c c lng bng phng php cc i hp l:
r

63

= N/ Ni.(xi - xmin)
i=1

N: Tng dung lng quan st.

Ni: Tn s t i.
* Tnh xc xut cho tng t:
+ T 1: P(x1)=F(x1) = 1 - exp(-(x1 + A - xmin) )
+ T 2: P(x2)=F(x2) - F(x1) = exp(-(x1 + A - xmin) ) - exp(-(x2 + A - xmin) )
+ T 3: P(x3)=F(x3) - F(x2) = exp(-(x2 + A - xmin) ) - exp(-(x3 + A - xmin) )
....................................................................................................................
+ T r: P(xr)=F(xr) - F(xr-1) = exp(-(xr-1 + A - xmin) ) - exp(-(xr + A - xmin) )
Vi A: gi tr 1/2 c ly t.
* Tn s l thuyt Nlt cho tng t:
Nlti = N.P(xi).
* Kim tra s ph hp bng tiu chun 2.
Kt qu m phng phn b N/D theo hm Weibull
A
1
2

C D1,3
N
Alpha N(x-xmin)^alpha
(cm)
(c/ha)
15
125
1
625,0

Lamda

P(x)

Nlt (c/ha)

X2

0,047710

0,379420

132

0,42

25

89

1335,0

0,235460

82

0,57

35

56

1400,0

0,146121

51

0,49

45

31

1085,0

0,090680

32

0,01

55

19

855,0

0,056274

20

0,02

65

440,0

0,034922

12

1,44

75

10

650,0

0,021672

0,78

85

375,0

0,013449

0,02

10

95

255,0

0,008346

0,00

11

105

190,0

0,005179

12

115

105,0

0,003214

349

7315,0

1,0

347

13 Tng
14

X2 bng=

15

K=9-1-1=7

*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*

3,76
14,07

Ct A: Gi tr gia c knh 15, 25,....115 vi c ly c 10 cm.

Ct B: S cy tng c Ni. B13: tng N= Sum(b2:b12)
C2: a tham s thm d.
Ct D: Gi tr: Ni(xi - 10). Vi xmin=10. Tnh ti d2: =B2*(A2-10)^$C$2, sau
copy cho cc di. D13 tnh tng =Sum(d2:d12).
E2: Tnh tham s : = B13/Sum(d2:d12).
Ct F: Tnh xc sut P(x) tng t: Tnh theo cng thc a ch .
Ct G: Nlt tng t: G2: =$B$13*F2, sau copy xung v tnh tng.
Ct H: Tnh 2 tng t v tng 2=3.76

64

* H14: Tra 2(0.05,7) =Chiinv(0.05,7)=14.07

* KL: Phn b Weibull m phng tt phn b thc nghim.
Ch : chn c ti u, ln lt thay gi tr C2, bng tnh s t ng tnh
li, sau chn mt vi 2 b nht.